This Week’s Highlights:

• Polls show Russian President Vladimir Putin is losing some of his compatriots’ trust in the wake of unpopular pension reforms. A September 2018 poll by Levada showed 39 percent of Russians listing Putin as a politician they trust compared to 59 percent in November 2017. However, as of that same month, 67 percent of Russians still approved of the job he was doing as president. As many as ten Russian governors have either been fired by Putin or resigned themselves amid falling ratings for the pro-Kremlin United Russia party.
• Russia “see[s] the West as an adversary that acts to undermine Russia’s positions and Russia's perspective for normal development,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in reference to U.S.-led sanctions on Russia, Financial Times reports. New rounds of Western economic sanctions will make it next to impossible for Russian President Vladimir Putin to achieve his ambitious domestic policy goals, such as reducing poverty, Russia’s chief auditor Alexei Kudrin has said, according to The Moscow Times. Earning 50^th place, Russia has placed behind all of its Eastern European neighbors and Georgia in a global ranking of 157 countries committed to reducing poverty.
• A synod presided over by the Ecumenical Patriarch in Istanbul, seat of the global spiritual leader of roughly 300 million Orthodox Christians, endorsed Ukraine's request for an "autocephalous" church that would be independent of the Russian Orthodox Church. The endorsement prompted a Kremlin representative to warn that “[j]ust as Russia defends the interests of Russians and Russian speakers—and Putin has spoken about this many times—Russia will defend the interests of the Orthodox.”
• U.S. President Donald Trump’s lawyers are preparing answers to questions for the U.S. special counsel probing Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, Reuters reports. Ahead of this year’s midterm elections, some Americans have reportedly begun copying some of the disinformation schemes that Russian operatives allegedly used in 2016, but the Department of Homeland Security has so far not seen demonstrated Russian activity in a repeat of 2016, according to a top DHS official.
• Russian space agency Roscosmos said on Oct. 12 that the two astronauts—one Russian, one American—who survived the mid-air failure of a Russian rocket would fly again and would provisionally travel to the ISS in spring of 2019, Reuters reports.
• The volume of Russian-Chinese trade has increased by one quarter so far this year, according to figures from China's customs agency.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• “The United States will integrate our instruments of national power to achieve our end states through the following strategic objectives [including that] terrorists are unable to acquire or use WMDs, including chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons and other advanced weaponry,” the U.S. National Strategy for Counterterrorism released in October 2018 says. “We must undertake additional efforts to prevent terrorists from acquiring or using weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and other advanced attack,” according to the strategy. (Russia Matters, 10.12.18)
• “We note the role of the IAEA as a unique organization that contributes to the development of international cooperation in the field of peaceful use of atomic energy, as a reliable pillar for the WMD nonproliferation regime based on the NPT, as an important mechanism of international cooperation in the field of strengthening nuclear and physical nuclear security, as well as a significant instrument contributing to international development,” Vladimir Yermakov, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Department for Nonproliferation and Arms Control, told the First Committee of the 73rd UNGA session. (Russian Foreign Ministry, 10.10.18)
• Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev will visit Brussels on Oct. 18-19 to participate in the Asia-Europe Meeting, the cabinet’s press service said in a statement. "The meeting’s agenda includes issues related to countering modern threats and challenges, namely international terrorism, the spread of nuclear weapons and climate change," the document says. (TASS, 10.08.18)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Chinese, Russian and North Korean deputy foreign ministers have met in Moscow to coordinate a trilateral approach to the denuclearization process. “It is time to start considering the adjustment of the U.N. Security Council’s sanction regime against the DPRK. The three parties also oppose unilateral sanctions,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Oct. 10. (Politico/SCMP, 10.12.18)
• The leaders of Russia and North Korea stressed their traditional friendly relations when they exchanged messages celebrating the 70th anniversary of diplomatic ties on Oct. 12. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is expected to visit Russia soon, South Korean President Moon Jae-in said Oct. 8. (Reuters, 10.07.18, NHK, 10.12.18)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

• No significant developments.

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

• U.S. Undersecretary of State Andrea Thomson said Russia and China are modernizing and expanding their nuclear capabilities "and pursuing destructive counter-space weapons at the same time they are becoming increasingly assertive in challenging the existing international order." (AP, 10.11.18)
• Adm. James Foggo, who heads NATO's Allied Joint Force Command in Naples, told Pentagon reporters in Washington Oct. 5 that Russia is investing heavily in its submarine fleet and wants to build an "asymmetric" threat to the U.S. and NATO. (RFE/RL, 10.06.18)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• The latest New START treaty aggregate numbers published by the State Department show a slight increase in U.S. deployed strategic forces and a slight decrease in Russian deployed strategic forces over the past six months. The data shows that the U.S. and Russia as of Sept. 1, 2018 combined deployed a total of 1,176 strategic launchers with 2,818 attributed warheads. In addition, the two countries also had a total of 399 non-deployed launchers for a total of 1,576 strategic launchers. Combined, the two countries have reduced their deployed strategic forces by 227 launchers and 519 warheads since 2011. (Federation of American Scientists, 10.05.18)
• U.S. Undersecretary of State Andrea Thomson said that the U.S. nuclear stockpile is down by approximately 88 percent from the Cold War peak. She said the U.S. and Russia are continuing to implement New START and met "the central limits" in February, putting their nuclear stockpiles "at their lowest points since the 1950s." (AP, 10.11.18)
• Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, said a “complete malfunction of the American system” meant key arms control treaties could lapse and leave nuclear powers without constraint in the event of a conflict. “We could lose several elements on arms control infrastructure,” Ryabkov said as U.S. and Russian officials were to begin talks in Geneva on Oct. 10 to try to shore up a largely Cold War-era system for limiting nuclear weapons. (Financial Times, 10.10.18)
• “We are ready to explore the option of extending the New START for another five years,” Vladimir I. Yermakov, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Department for Nonproliferation and Arms Control, told the First Committee of the 73rd UNGA session. (Russian Foreign Ministry, 10.10.18)

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• A military-diplomatic source told TASS Russia had provided to Syria three battalion sets of the S-300PM air defense system (eight launchers in each) free of charge. According to the source, the delivery had been completed by Oct.1. "The hardware was previously in service in an air defense regiment of Russia’s aerospace force," the source said. (TASS, 10.08.18)
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin "soon" in the first such meeting since a Russian military aircraft was shot down over the eastern Mediterranean Sea last month. The two leaders will discuss air cooperation at their upcoming meeting, the chairman of Russia’s State Duma Defense Committee, Vladimir Shamanov, said. (RFE/RL, 10.07.18, TASS, 10.09.18)
• Russia is working to “open communication channels” between Israel and Iran, a Russia source was quoted on Oct. 6 as saying in the Ashraq Al-Awsat newspaper. (The Jerusalem Post, 10.07.18)
• Russia is urging Germany and France to break ranks with their American ally and help rebuild Syria so that refugees can go home, Vitaly Naumkin, a top Kremlin aide on Syria policy said. (Bloomberg, 10.12.18)
• Russia has information on the attempts to re-deploy terrorists from Syria’s Idlib to Iraq, but these actions are being cut off, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Oleg Syromolotov said. (TASS, 10.09.18)
• Ukraine's SBU Security Service on Oct. 7 released the personal data of 206 contractors from Russian military intelligence working for the private military company Wagner. They were previously identified fighting in Syria during February 2018. (Interfax, 10.08.18)

Cyber security:

• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Oleg Syromolotov said that Britain has been Russia’s enemy since Ivan the Terrible reigned over Medieval Rus’, in response to reports that London was considering retaliatory cyberattacks against Moscow. (Moscow Times, 10.10.18)
• Russia has carried out cyberattacks on Latvia's foreign and defense apparatus and other state institutions, a Latvian intelligence agency said on Oct. 8. Russia's military intelligence agency has tried to access information by e-mail phishing attacks against government computers in "recent years," Latvia's Constitution Protection Bureau said. (Reuters, 10.08.18)
• Authorized hackers were quickly able to seize control of weapons systems being acquired by the American military in a test of the Pentagon’s digital vulnerabilities, according to a new report by the Government Accountability Office. “In one case, the test team took control of the operators’ terminals,” the report said. “They could see, in real time, what the operators were seeing on their screens and could manipulate the system”—a technique reminiscent of what Russian hackers did to a Ukrainian power grid two years ago. (New York Times, 10.10.18)

Elections interference:

• U.S. President Donald Trump’s lawyers are preparing answers to questions for the U.S. special counsel probing Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, a source familiar with the matter said Oct. 11. Trump earlier suggested he would "do what is necessary" to bring the Russia probe to a conclusion, including potentially sitting down for an interview with special counsel Robert Mueller. Trump, in a wide-ranging interview with Fox & Friends on Oct. 11, said of the investigation into possible ties between his campaign and Russia: "They ought to get it over with." (Reuters, 10.11.18, AP, 10.11.18)
• U.S. President Donald Trump is considering as many as five candidates as his new attorney general on the assumption that Jeff Sessions will leave his post later this year, according to White House officials and outside advisers. Trump has harshly criticized Sessions' decision to step aside from the probe into Russia's interference in the 2016 presidential election and any possible collusion between Moscow and Trump's campaign, though that recusal was widely viewed as appropriate and necessary by legal ethics experts. (Wall Street Journal, 10.11.18)
• U.S. President Donald Trump said Oct. 8 that he has no plans to fire Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, whose future at the Justice Department has been steeped in drama, relaying that the two had a "good talk" while traveling together on Air Force One to an event in Florida. (The Washington Post, 10.08.18)
• “We haven't seen demonstrated Russian activity in a repeat of 2016. But I mentioned the planning aspect, how we're planning. We're ready. We're planning for them to come back,” said Christopher Krebs, undersecretary of the Department of Homeland Security’s National Protection and Programs Directorate. (PBS, 10.11.18)
• Americans are now copying Russian disinformation schemes. In 2016, before the U.S. presidential election, state-backed Russian operatives exploited Facebook and Twitter to sway voters with divisive messages. Now, weeks before the midterm elections on Nov. 6, such influence campaigns are increasingly a domestic phenomenon fomented by Americans on the left and the right. (New York Times, 10.11.18)
• A top Trump campaign official, Rick Gates, requested proposals in 2016 from an Israeli company to create fake online identities, to use social media manipulation and to gather intelligence to help defeat Republican primary race opponents and Hillary Clinton, according to interviews and copies of the proposals. (New York Times, 10.08.18)
• Late Republican activist Peter W. Smith, whose quest to obtain Hillary Clinton's emails from hackers dominated the final months of his life, struck up a professional relationship with Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, former national security adviser to Donald Trump, as early as 2015, and told associates during the presidential campaign that he was using the retired general's connections to help him on the email project. The matter is under scrutiny by special counsel Robert Mueller. (Wall Street Journal, 10.10.18)

Energy exports:

• An increase in crude oil production in September by OPEC and its ally Russia more than made up for declining Iranian output, OPEC said Oct. 11, as it vowed to keep filling the gap created by impending U.S. sanctions on Iran. In its closely watched monthly oil market report, OPEC said its crude production rose by 132,000 barrels a day last month to average 32.76 million barrels a day. Output from Russia—the group's largest production ally—increased by 150,000 barrels a day to reach a new post-Soviet record of 11.54 million barrels, OPEC reported. (Wall Street Journal, 10.11.18)
• Russia's Gazprom next year will resume imports of natural gas from Turkmenistan that it stopped three years ago, the energy giant's chief executive has said. (RFE/RL, 10.10.18)
• Russia’s largest private gas producer Novatek has discovered another major gasfield in the country’s Arctic. The deposit could be developed as its third gas project in the region as a follow-up to its successful Yamal LNG scheme, which was launched in December 2017. (Financial Times, 10.11.18)

Bilateral economic ties:

• The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, or Calpers, had about $460 million invested in Russian government bonds as of the end of June, up over 8 percent since last year, according to data provided to Bloomberg News. Based on publicly disclosed figures, that makes the state of California Russia’s 10th-largest foreign creditor. (Bloomberg, 10.10.18)

Other bilateral issues:

• Dmitry Rogozin, head of Russia's space agency Roscosmos, said on Oct. 12 that two astronauts who survived the mid-air failure of a Russian rocket would fly again and would provisionally travel to the International Space Station (ISS) in spring of next year. Rogozin was speaking a day after Russian cosmonaut Alexei Ovchinin and American Nick Hague made a dramatic emergency landing in Kazakhstan after the failure of the Soyuz rocket carrying them to the orbital ISS. The Oct. 11 accident was the first serious launch problem experienced by a manned Soyuz space mission since 1983. The Interfax news agency on Oct. 12 cited a source familiar with the Russian investigation as saying that a faulty valve had caused the first stage of the Soyuz-FG rocket to malfunction, even though the valve had been properly checked before take-off. Roscosmos says that it has suspended all Soyuz launches pending an investigation into the problem that forced the emergency landing. ISS Operations Integration Manager Kenny Todd told a press briefing late on Oct.11 that it's not clear how long the Soyuz operations will be grounded. "If it's two months or six, I really can't speculate on that," he said. (Reuters, 10.12.18, RFE/RL, 10.12.18)
• “We do not believe that the broader West . . . are friends with us. Rather, we see the West as an adversary that acts to undermine Russia’s positions and Russia's perspective for normal development,” Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, said. “So why should we care so much about our standing among adversaries?” (Financial Times, 10.10.18)
• New rounds of Western economic sanctions will make it next to impossible for Russian President Vladimir Putin to achieve his ambitious domestic policy goals, Russia’s chief auditor Alexei Kudrin has said. Putin outlined plans to spend 8 trillion rubles ($120 billion) on infrastructure, technology, investment and social issues during his 2018-2024 presidency. “We must clearly understand: If sanctions are ramped up, the goals that the president has set will become practically unattainable on many of the indicators,” Kudrin was quoted as saying Oct. 10. Kudrin called on “the reduction of tensions” in Russia’s foreign policy “to at least keep or lower the sanctions regime,” Interfax reported. (The Moscow Times, 10.11.18)
• Six months after the imposition of the harshest-ever U.S. sanctions against a group of Russian businessmen, potential targets of new penalties are exuding quiet confidence that the next set of curbs will not be crippling, and that much of their businesses are well defended from potential attack. (Financial Times, 10.11.18)
• The U.S. on Oct. 12 said it was granting investors another month to divest their holdings of sanctioned Russian companies EN+ and Rusal and was giving the firms more time to address their business operations. (Reuters, 10.12.18)
• U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said on Oct. 9 she would resign at the end of the year, marking a high-profile departure of one of the few women in Trump’s cabinet. (New York Times, 10.09.18)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

• In a poll by the independent Levada Center, 39 percent of Russians listed Putin as a politician they trust. That is a 20 percent decrease from November 2017, when Putin was named by 59 percent of Russians, according to the same polling agency. However, as many as 67 percent of Russians still approved the job Putin was doing as the president as of September, according to another poll by Levada. The ruling United Russia party has also been hit hard. A Public Opinion Foundation poll showed the party had 31 percent support, also a drop of close to 20 percent since the beginning of the year, with its docile rivals rising in the polls. (Guardian, 10.08.18, Russia Matters, 10.12.18)
• Three more Russian governors have quit this week as Russian President Vladimir Putin continues renewing regional cadres facing elections next year amid falling ratings for the ruling United Russia party. The Kremlin appointed Radyi Khabirov, the former head of the Moscow region’s Krasnogorsk district, to lead the republic of Bashkortostan. Ex-deputy transport minister Roman Starovoytov was called in to head central Russia’s Kursk region. No replacements have yet been named for the Zabaikalsky region’s Natalya Zhdanova. Ten governors have now been replaced since Sept. 26, all but one of them facing tough re-election prospects in the fall of 2019. (The Moscow Times, 10.12.18)
• A new report authored by analysts who correctly predicted mass anti-government rallies in 2012 has said that the potential for new nationwide protests against the Russian government is growing. The report’s authors—economist Mikhail Dmitriyev and sociologist Sergei Belanovsky—detailed plummeting support for the ruling elite and growing public discontent in March 2011, less than a year before anti-Kremlin protests broke out. (The Moscow Times, 10.11.18)
• Protests over a border deal with Chechnya show little sign of abating in Ingushetia, where demonstrators have rallied for a fifth straight day in the small southern region's capital and called for the resignation of its longtime leader. At least two protest leaders have been detained. (RFE/RL, 10.08.18, The Moscow Times, 10.12.18)
• Russia has placed behind all of its Eastern European neighbors and Georgia in a global ranking of 157 countries committed to reducing poverty. Russia placed 50th in the ranking, scoring low on labor rights, social spending and tax policy. Russia’s Baltic neighbor Estonia ranked 26th, while Belarus, Lithuania and Ukraine ranked 41st, 42nd and 43rd. (The Moscow Times, 10.10.18)
• The Council of Europe has awarded jailed Chechen rights advocate Oyub Titiyev this year’s Vaclav Havel Human Rights Prize. (The Moscow Times, 10.08.18)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russian strategic nuclear forces held exercises on Oct. 11, the Russian Defense Ministry reported. The ministry said nuclear submarine crews of the Northern and Pacific fleets, strategic missile aircraft pilots and aviation bombers took part in the exercises. While an ICBM launch was apparently part of the plan for the strategic exercise, it was either cancelled or failed, according to Pavel Podvig, a leading expert on Russian strategic forces. (Reuters, 10.12.18, Russia Matters, 10.12.18)
• Russia is currently unable to find a source for the critical carbon fiber components needed to make one of its hypersonic weapons, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's claims that the device has already entered serial production, according to people with direct knowledge of a U.S. intelligence report. However, the weapon is still on track to achieve initial operational capability by 2020. (CNBC, 10.12.18)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Russia’s security services said they have detained the leader of the Russian wing of the Hizb ut-Tahrir Islamist group. (The Moscow Times, 10.12.18)
• Authorities in central Russia said they have seized explosives from a group of Jehovah’s Witnesses detained in a year-long crackdown on the religious group that Moscow labels as extremist. (The Moscow Times, 10.11.18)
• A Russian human rights activist says 20 inmates at Russia's notorious Vladimir Central jail have slashed their wrists to protest their planned transfer to what they call a "torture colony." (RFE/RL, 10.12.18)
• A newly published video has shown scenes of prisoner abuse outside Moscow months after leaked bodycam footage of prison torture sparked a nationwide investigation. (The Moscow Times, 10.11.18)
• A gunman killed Moscow region police investigator Yevgeniya Shishkina outside her apartment building in the village of Arkhangel’skoye northwest of Moscow. (The Moscow Times, 10.10.18)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Investigative website Bellingcat has identified the second suspect in the nerve-agent attack on former Russian spy Sergei Skripal as Alexander Yevgenyevich Mishkin, a military doctor employed by Russia's GRU military intelligence agency. GRU employees Mishkin and Anatoliy Chepiga participated in the seizure of state institutions in eastern Ukraine, Bellingcat reporter Christo Grozev said after a meeting with British parliamentarians. Grozev said GRU operatives were "directly involved" in the takeover of city councils and the "fake idea of local defense units." Bellingcat says it has found that Mishkin and Chepiga were awarded Hero of the Russian Federation medals by Russia President Vladimir Putin four years ago for actions in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 10.08.18, Interfax, 10.09.18, RFE/RL, 10.09.18, RFE/RL, 10.10.18)
• Russian website fontanka.ru says a GRU military intelligence operative whose name is Sergei Fedotov is allegedly the third Russian agent involved in trying to kill former spy Sergei Skripal earlier this year. (RFE/RL, 10.10.18)
• Russia's ambassador to London, Alexander Yakovenko, denied on Oct. 12 that spies from his country's military intelligence agency had tried to kill former double agent Sergei Skripal and hack various organizations across the world. (Reuters, 10.12.18)
• British police are treating the death of onetime finance director of Russia's flagship airline Nikolai Glushkov as a murder investigation. Glushkov's death has sent a strong message to Russia's emigre community. He was part of a trio of once-powerful Russians who, after amassing fortunes during Russian privatizations, helped build the political system that brought Russian President Vladimir Putin to the presidency. The trio’s leader, Boris Berezovsky, was found hanged in a bathroom of his house in Berkshire, England, in 2013, in a death that was initially called a suicide but now police are investigating anew. Berezovsky's longtime security assistant, former Russian security officer Alexander Litvinenko, was killed in 2006 by a fatal dose of the radioactive isotope polonium-210, a murder the U.K. blamed on Russia. (Wall Street Journal, 10.10.18)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has rejected accusations made by the Dutch authorities against suspected Russian spies. Commenting on the Dutch allegations, Lavrov said the four Russians were on a "routine" trip to The Hague in April when they were arrested and deported by Dutch authorities. (RFE/RL, 10.08.18)
• Russia is moving troops and missiles into Libya in a bid to enforce a new stranglehold on the West. British intelligence chiefs have told British Prime Minister Theresa May that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to make war-torn Libya “his new Syria.” “Dozens” of officers from Russia’s GRU as well as its Spetznaz special forces wing are already on the ground in eastern Libya, initially carrying out training and liaison roles, according to the Sun. However, Alexei Kondratyev, the deputy chair of the Russian upper house's defense committee, said: “There are no[ne of] our military servicemen in Libya and their presence is not planned.” (The Sun, 10.10.18, Xinhua, 10.10.18)
• The Kremlin is making an effort to reassert itself in Afghanistan, an initiative that has included discreet contacts with Taliban leaders and a military buildup along the country’s northern edge. It is part of a strategy, analysts said, to protect Russia’s southern flank from the Islamic State’s emergence in Central Asia and hedge against the possibility of an abrupt U.S. exit from Afghanistan after 17 years of war. (The Washington Post, 10.12.18)
• A Russia-friendly party has won the most votes in Latvia’s parliamentary elections, ahead of two populist parties. The Harmony party, which gets much of its support from the Baltic country's Russian-speaking minority, took 19.9 percent of the votes in the Oct. 6 elections. (RFE/RL, 10.07.18)
• Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has been invited to visit Moscow on Dec. 12 and meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. (TASS, 10.07.18)
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with Japanese Chief of Joint Staff Adm. Katsutoshi Kawano in Moscow on Oct. 8 to discuss humanitarian aid for Syria and the return of its refugees. (Interfax, 10.08.18)
• Russia rejects protests from Japan over Russia's military deployments on a chain of disputed Pacific islands and reserves the right to bolster its security there as it sees fit, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Oct. 10. (Reuters, 10.10.18)
• Russia and India have agreed to work together to increase the level of Indian localization in a project to build six nuclear units at a new site in India. The Action Plan for Prioritization and Implementation of Cooperation Areas in the Nuclear Field was signed Oct. 5 on the sidelines of the 19th India-Russia Bilateral Summit in New Delhi. (World Nuclear News, 10.05.18)

China:

• The volume of trade between Russia and China in the first nine months of 2018  increased by 25.7 percent compared to the same period last year, News.ru reported, citing China’s customs agency. Exports from China to Russia grew by 12.7 percent and amounted to $35.2 billion, while  imports from Russia grew by 39.2 percent, reaching $41.9 billion, according to the agency. (Russia Matters, 10.12.18)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine secured approval on Oct. 11 to establish an independent church in what Kiev says is a vital step against Russian meddling in its affairs, but the Russian clergy fiercely opposes as the biggest split in Christianity for a thousand years. At a three-day synod presided over by the Ecumenical Patriarch in Istanbul, seat of the global spiritual leader of roughly 300 million Orthodox Christians, endorsed Ukraine's request for an "autocephalous" (independent) church. In retaliation, the Russian Orthodox Church said it would break eucharistical relations with the Ecumenical Patriarchate. (Reuters, 10.12.18)
  • "In the event that the events which are developing take the course of illegal activities, then of course, just as Russia defends the interests of Russians and Russian speakers—and Putin has spoken about this many times—Russia will defend the interests of the Orthodox," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov  told reporters. "This is an absolutely grounded and absolutely understandable position." (Reuters, 10.12.18)
• The 12-day-long Clear Sky 2018 war games are being held in western Ukraine. Some 700 troops are taking part, half of them from NATO member countries: the U.S., Britain, Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Poland and Romania. U.S. aircraft including F-15C Eagle fighter planes and C-130J Super Hercules military transport planes and drones will train with about 30 Ukrainian aircraft. (RFE/RL, 10.08.18)
• Ukraine's Constitutional Court will prioritize the consideration of draft amendments to the constitution affirming Ukraine's EU and NATO strategic aspirations, Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko has said. (Interfax, 10.08.18)
• Kurt Volker, the U.S. special envoy for Ukraine, has said that elections planned by Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine are illegitimate and urged Moscow not to endorse them. Denis Pushilin, the chairman of the Donetsk "people's council," was selected as the acting head until the Nov. 11 vote to select a new leader. (RFE/RL, 10.11.18)
• An intense series of explosions and a fast-moving fire ripped through an ammunition depot in Ukraine, prompting the evacuation of thousands of people and igniting suspicions of sabotage. (RFE/RL, 10.09.18)
• Forty-eight percent of Ukrainians told the Kiev International Institute of Sociology that they hold a positive attitude toward Russia, according to survey results published Oct. 10, up from 37 percent last year. By contrast, only 32 percent of Ukrainian respondents said they hold negative views of Russia, down from 46 percent last year. (The Moscow Times, 10.10.18)
• The International Monetary Fund in its October 2018 World Economic Outlook lowered its forecast for Ukrainian GDP growth in 2019 to 2.7 percent from the 3.3 percent projected in April. (Interfax, 10.09.18)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Uzbekistan's president has made his first trip to an EU country, meeting with French leader Emmanuel Macron in Paris. Macron's office said Oct. 9 that Shavkat Mirziyoyev is signing partnership agreements with French companies including energy group Total, Veolia and Suez for water facilities, nuclear company Orano and Airbus Helicopters. (AP, 10.09.18)
• One week after being driven out of Armenia’s governing coalition, Prosperous Armenia Party leader Gagik Tsarukian has committed himself to helping Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian force snap general elections in December. (RFE/RL, 10.09.18)

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.