Details of Russia’s military campaign in Syria:

• Russia on Nov. 2 urged civilians and militants in Aleppo to leave the besieged Syrian city during an upcoming "humanitarian pause," a proposal dismissed by rebels. Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of Russia's general staff, said Russian and Syrian government forces would allow the departures Nov. 4 between 9 a.m. and 7 p.m. "to avoid unnecessary casualties." He said the humanitarian pause had been ordered by President Vladimir Putin and coordinated with the Syrian government. (Wall Street Journal, 11.02.16)
• The Russian military has not used combat aircraft in Aleppo for 16 days upon the orders of President Vladimir Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Nov. 1. Putin rejected a request from the Russian military to resume airstrikes against militants in the city, the Kremlin said Oct. 28. Putin “considers it possible” to continue a “humanitarian pause” in operations in Aleppo despite a request from the general staff to resume bombing, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Earlier Putin had defended Moscow's support for the siege of the rebel-held eastern districts of Aleppo by Assad's army, calling it a necessary move in order to defeat militant forces there. (RFE/RL , 10.27.16, Bloomberg , 10.28.16, TASS, 11.01.16)
• Russia’s defense minister assailed NATO on Nov. 1 for applying pressure to deny port access to Russian warships en route to Syria’s shores. Sergei Shoigu said the denial hasn’t affected the mission of a Russian aircraft carrier group, adding that it has all the necessary supplies. The Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov and escorting vessels are now in the Mediterranean, heading to Syria’s coast. (AP, 11.01.16)
• Ka-52K attack helicopters deployed on the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier will test-fire the latest Hermes extreme-range anti-tank guided missiles for the first time in Syria in the battle with Islamic State, the daily newspaper Izvestia has reported. (RBTH, 10.28.16)
• Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov has dismissed speculations by the British daily The Times that Russia is allegedly getting ready for a major offensive on the besieged Syrian city of Aleppo. (TASS, 11.01.16)
• Russia has denied carrying out air strikes on a school in Syria's rebel-held Idlib province that killed 36 people, including 22 children. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said warplanes it identified as either Syrian or Russian made at least six strikes on the village of Haas on Oct. 26, including on the school compound. (New York Times, 10.26.16, Al Jazeera, 10.27.16)
• Izvestia reports that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is organizing some “superlight” army brigades. The intent, reportedly based on Syrian combat experience, is for these motorized rifle brigades to slip around or through heavier enemy forces to conduct raids at distances of several hundred kilometers. (Russian Defense Policy Blog, 10.26.16)

Response to Russia’s military campaign in Syria:

• NATO has begun flying its airborne early warning surveillance planes in support of the international coalition against Islamic State. The AWACS system won’t be used directly to target Islamic State. Instead, its powerful radar will be used to track the movement of coalition, Russian and Syrian aircraft inside Syria, providing the coalition air command in Qatar real-time information that can be used to deconflict operations or track the movements of war planes. (Wall Street Journal, 10.25.16)
• UN Undersecretary-General Stephen O’Brien accused Russia and Syria on Oct. 26 of using bombing and starvation tactics in eastern Aleppo to push people to surrender or to death, triggering an unusual verbal attack on a UN official from the Russian ambassador. The U.S., Britain and France strongly defended O’Brien and joined the attack on Russia. Russia’s UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said it was “outrageous” that O’Brien spoke as if the bombings in eastern Aleppo were ongoing when they had been stopped for seven days at that point. Russia's Foreign Ministry has said that neither Russian nor Syrian government aircraft carried out the air strike against a school in Syria's Idlib Province that killed several dozen people, including 22 children. (RFE/RL, 10.27.16, AP, 10.26.16)
• At Tuesday’s launch of the University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll, researchers explored Americans’ views on the Islamic State and Syria. Some 60%—67% of Republicans, 53% of Democrats and 67% of independents—would like to see the United States work alongside Russia in the fight against the Islamic State in Syria. This is not to say that all Americans are as fond of President Vladimir Putin as Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump seems to be: Thirty percent of Democrats and 8% of Republicans named him their least-liked world leader. (Foreign Policy, 11.01.16)

Risk of accidental or intentional confrontation between Western and Russian forces in Syria:

• A Russian military spokesman is blaming the United States for a near-collision of the countries’ warplanes in Syrian airspace. Major-General Igor Konashenkov said in a statement Oct. 29 that the Oct. 17 incident involved a Sukhoi-35 and an American E-3 radar plane near the city of Deir al-Zour. Konashenkov said Russia had informed the U.S. military of the Su-35’s intent to fly in the area, but the American plane unexpectedly descended by about one kilometer (0.6 miles) and came within 500 meters (0.3 miles) of the Russian plane. (AP, 10.29.16)
• Russian TV anchor Dmitry Kiselyov has warned that “Moscow would react with nerves of steel" to any U.S. intervention in Syria—up to and including a nuclear response. "If it should one day happen, every one of you should know where the nearest bomb shelter is. It's best to find out now," another television channel has advised. (The Washington Post, 10.29.16)
• U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and a top U.S. intelligence official agreed on the potential for conflict with Russia if the United States adopts his Democratic rival’s plan on Syria. Trump charged it would lead to open warfare—"World War Three over Syria if we listen to Hillary Clinton"—while National Intelligence Director James Clapper said Russia might shoot down a U.S. aircraft if the United States attempts to enforce a no-fly zone as Clinton has proposed in parts of Syria: "I wouldn't put it past them to shoot down an American aircraft if they felt that was threatening to their forces on the ground," Clapper told CBS's Charlie Rose at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on Oct. 25. (RFE/RL, 10.26.16)
• John Ford, a reserve captain in the U.S. Army, argues that: “Before Russia’s intervention, the United States could have freely engaged Syrian forces that tried to violate safe zones. It cannot do the same to Russian forces without risking a wider war.” (The National Interest, 10.30.16)
• According to a new poll conducted by the independent Levada Center pollster, almost half of Russians (48%) fear worsening relations with the West over Syria could lead to a third world war. The threat of nuclear war keeps the Russian population pliant and uncritical, said Lev Gudkov, head of the center: "Most people believe that World War III has begun, but right now we are still in the cold phase of the war, which may or may not turn into a hot war," he said. "And during war, you have to support your country's authorities." (The Moscow Times, 10.31.16, Wall Street Journal , 10.25.16)

Strategies and actions recommended:

• No significant developments.

Analysis:

• Niall Fergusson, a senior fellow of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, argues that Barack Obama “has allowed Russia to become a major (and malign) player in the Middle East for the first time in 40 years.” (Boston Globe, 10.31.16)

Other important news:

• The entire territory of Syria must be “liberated,” Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman said in remarks televised Oct. 22, dismissing demands for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s departure as “thoughtless”: “There are just two options: Assad sitting in Damascus or the Nusra sitting in Damascus,” Dmitry Peskov said in a reference to the Nusra Front, al-Qaida’s branch in Syria that renamed itself Fatah al-Sham Front earlier this year. “And Assad must sit in Damascus to ensure a political settlement. … The territory of Syria must be liberated,” Peskov said. “It must be liberated and everything must be done to prevent the country’s breakup, which could have catastrophic consequences for the entire region.” (AP , 10.22.16)
• “My personal agreements with the President of the United States [on Syria] have not produced results either. There were people in Washington ready to do everything possible to prevent these agreements from being implemented in practice,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 27. (Kremlin.ru , 10.27.16)
• Russia’s foreign minister has called on U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to ensure that what he called terrorist groups are separated from so-called moderate opposition fighters in Syria. Sergei Lavrov made the call in an Oct. 24 telephone conversation with Kerry, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. Kerry in turn expressed concern about the renewal of attacks on Aleppo by Syrian government forces and Russian warplanes after a pause in the fighting last week, State Department spokesman John Kirby said. Kerry and Lavrov held another discussion of the events in Syria on Oct. 28, (AP, 10.24.16, RFE/RL, 10.25.16, TASS, 10.28.16)
• Russia’s defense minister accused Syrian rebels of massive shelling of residential areas in the city of Aleppo. Sergei Shoigu said Nov. 1 that over 2,000 militants backed by dozens of tanks and armored vehicles have launched attacks on homes, schools and hospitals in the government-controlled part of the city. The rebels in Aleppo began an offensive on Oct. 28 to break the government’s siege of the eastern part of the city, which has been under their control since 2012. (AP, 11.01.16)
• Senior Russian diplomat Alexei Borodavkin has urged the incoming U.S. president to work with his country to resolve the war in Syria. He said President Vladimir Putin is seeking to cement a more-than-two-week pause in the bombing of Aleppo into a lasting truce through talks with the U.S. and regional powers. (Bloomberg, 11.02.16)
• Russia on Oct. 27 rejected the findings of a chemical weapons investigation led by the United Nations that found Syrian forces had used chlorine bombs at least three times in the past two years. (New York Times, 10.27.16)
• Civilians have no escape route from the Iraqi city of Mosul and are under threat of "possible mass casualties" from daily U.S. and coalition airstrikes, Russia's Defense Ministry said Tuesday. Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, a ministry spokesman, contrasted the situation in Mosul with that of Aleppo. On Monday, State Department spokesman John Kirby called Moscow's attempts to compare the situations in Aleppo and Mosul "ludicrous" and "absolutely insulting." (The Washington Post, 11.01.16)
• Syrian President Bashar al-Assad ruled out political changes until government forces won the war, and declared that he expected to be president at least until his third seven-year term ends in 2021.(New York Times, 11.01.16)
• The Syrian foreign minister, Walid al-Moallem, met with Sergei Lavrov of Russia and Mohammad Javad Zarif of Iran in Moscow on Oct. 28 to discuss conditions for putting in place a pause in hostilities. (New York Times, 10.28.16)
• The head of the Turkish Armed Forces General Staff, General Hulusi Akar, visited Moscow on Nov. 1 for talks with his Russian counterpart, General Valery Gerasimov. (RFE/RL, 11.01.16)
• Four Russian citizens of Chechen origin are facing trial in Poland on terrorism charges. They were charged with participation in a criminal organization and illegal fundraising to support the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. A regional court in Bialystok began hearing the case on Oct. 27.(RFE/RL , 10.27.16)
• The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for an Oct. 23 attack in Nizhny Novgorod. That morning two men opened fire on a policeman who was inspecting their car. The policeman returned fire and mortally wounded both attackers. (The Moscow Times , 10.26.16)
• The Russian Interior Ministry says four suspected militants have been killed by police in the restive Caucasus province of Dagestan. Also a regional spokesman for the Investigative Committee said Judge Ruslan Boltashev was attacked Oct. 27 as he was driving his car in Pervomayskoye, a village in the region of Karachayevo-Cherkesia. (RFE/RL , 10.27.16, AP, 10.22.16)
• A court in Kazakhstan's northwestern city of Aqtobe on Oct. 25 found Nurlan Omirbekov guilty of fomenting terrorism and religious extremism, kidnapping, robbery, extortion and inciting hatred. It sentenced him the same day to 12 years in prison. Investigators say Omirbekov planned to join the Islamic State in Syria. (RFE/RL , 10.25.16)

News items for this digest curated by Simon Saradzhyan, director of the Russia Matters Project.