Russia in Syria Monitor, Nov. 8-15, 2016

Details of Russia’s military campaign in Syria:

  • Russia resumed large-scale airstrikes around Syria on Nov. 15, launching what the U.S. and its allies fear could lead to a devastating assault on the besieged city of Aleppo and set off a wider humanitarian crisis. The strikes, which included the use of Kaliber cruise missiles, hit the provinces of Idlib and Homs, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Shoigu said the frigate Admiral Grigorovich launched cruise missile strikes. Airstrikes were also launched from the carrier Admiral Kuznetsov in what represented the first use of carrier-based jets in the Syrian battles. (Wall Street Journal, 11.15.16, The Washington Post, 11.15.16)
  • A Russian MiG-29K fighter jet crashed in the Mediterranean Sea on Nov. 14, after taking off from the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, the Russian Defense Ministry told the Interfax news agency. (The Moscow Times, 11.14.16)
  • The Russian military said last week that Russian warships in the eastern Mediterranean have driven away a Dutch submarine shadowing the squadron led by the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier. A ministry spokesman said that such “clumsy” attempts to maneuver close to the Russian squadron could have resulted in an accident. (AP , 11.09.16)

Response to Russia’s military campaign in Syria:

  • “If you have a Syrian military that is committed to killing its people indiscriminately as necessary, and it is supported by Russia, that now have substantial military assets on the ground and are actively supporting that regime, and Iran actively supporting that regime, and we are supporting what has to be our No. 1 national security priority, which is going after ISIL both in Mosul and ultimately in Raqqa—...the situation is not the same as it was in Libya,” U.S. President Barack Obama said. (White House press briefing, 11.14.16)
  • “The Russians have been completely backwards there in what they’ve been doing [in Syria]. And so we have not been able to, and I have not been in favor, and I’m not recommending to the president that we associate ourselves with or work with the Russians until they start doing the right thing,” said U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said the Pentagon's call on the U.S. president-elect not to cooperate with Russia on Syria is proof of contradictions in Washington. (CBS, 11.11.16, TASS, 11.14.16)

Risk of accidental or intentional confrontation between Western and Russian forces in Syria:

  • Russian jets have routinely intercepted U.S. and NATO surveillance aircraft, such as the P-8 Poseidon, trying to look at the Russian convoy in the eastern Mediterranean. All interactions have been safe and professional so far, Fox News was told. (Fox News , 11.09.16)

Strategies and actions recommended:

  • U.S. President-elect Donald Trump suggested a sharper focus on fighting Islamic State, or ISIS, in Syria, rather than on ousting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. “My attitude was you’re fighting Syria, Syria is fighting ISIS, and you have to get rid of ISIS. Russia is now totally aligned with Syria, and now you have Iran, which is becoming powerful, because of us, is aligned with Syria. … Now we’re backing rebels against Syria, and we have no idea who these people are,” Trump said. If the U.S. attacks Assad, Trump said, “we end up fighting Russia, fighting Syria.” His comments suggest that once he begins overseeing both the public support for the opposition groups, and a far larger covert effort run by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), he may wind down or abandon the effort. (Wall Street Journal, 11.11.16, New York Times, 11.11.16)
  • Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is the leading candidate for President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for secretary of state. In remarks made on Nov. 14, Giuliani described Russia as both a friend and a foe. Giuliani also said Trump would likely focus much of his initial foreign-policy strategy on destroying Islamic State. (CNN, 11.13.16, Wall Street Journal, 11.14.16, Wall Street Journal, 11.14.16, Wall Street Journal, 11.14.16)

Analysis:

  • Columnist David Ignatius writes: “A Trump foreign policy, based on his statements, will bring an intense 'realist' focus on U.S. national interests and a rejection of costly U.S. engagements abroad. It will likely …. [lead to] a joint military effort with Russia and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to defeat the Islamic State.”  (The Washington Post, 11.09.16)

Other important news:

  • For the first time Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump spoke directly to one another in a telephone call on Nov. 14, according to an official statement released by the Kremlin. Trump and Putin reportedly discussed the “highly unsatisfactory” state of U.S.-Russia relations, as well as the need to take steps to “normalize” ties and undertake “constructive cooperation on a wide range of issues,” including the fight against international terrorism and extremism. The two men reportedly discussed the armed crisis in Syria. The Kremlin said Trump and Putin both agreed to remain in regular telephone contact, and to begin planning for a future meeting in person. The two are not due to meet before Trump assumes office on Jan. 20, 2017, the Kremlin said on Nov. 15. Trump’s office later said that Putin had called to "offer his congratulations" and that they had discussed shared threats and challenges, "strategic economic issues" and the long-term relationship between the two nations. Trump told Putin "that he is very much looking forward to having a strong and enduring relationship with Russia and the people of Russia."  (The Moscow Times, 11.15.16, Reuters, 11.15.16,  Wall Street Journal, 11.11.16, The Moscow Times, 11.14.16, The Washington Post, 11.14.16)
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in an interview Nov. 10 that there is no possibility of “a breakthrough” to end the more-than-five-year Syrian conflict unless the so-called moderate opposition is separated from “terrorist groups” including the Nusra Front and Islamic State extremists. Russia, meanwhile, is continuing to support the Syrian government and army “because we have only two alternatives ... either we have President Assad in Damascus or we have Nusra and Islamic State,” Peskov said. (AP, 11.10.16)
  • Russia's Defense Ministry said Nov. 11 that it had proof militants in the Syrian city of Aleppo had recently used chemical weapons against the civilian population and Syrian government soldiers. The rebels denied these accusations. (Wall Street Journal, 11.11.16)
  • Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) claims it has arrested five members of a suspected terrorist cell that was planning attacks in Moscow and in Russia's republic of Ingushetia in the North Caucus region. According to FSB officials, the men are believed to be affiliated with the Islamic State, and were in possession of two improvised explosive devices. (The Moscow Times, 11.15.16)
  • Members of a Russia-based terror cell arrested on Nov. 12 had planned to attack St. Petersburg shopping malls with homemade bombs, the Kommersant newspaper reported Nov. 14. The group, made up of Tajik, Uzbek and Kyrgyz nationals, hoped that the attacks would “prove their loyalty” to the Islamic State before they joined the group in Syria. (The Moscow Times, 11.14.16, Gazeta.ru, 11.12.16)
  • Gulmurod Khalimov, a former police commander from Tajikistan, appears to have become the second senior commander of the Islamic State, to which he defected last year, to have benefited from American military training provided to former Soviet states. Khalimov's precise rank is unclear; he could be the group's so-called minister of war, or military commander in chief. (New York Times, 11.10.16)