Russia in Syria Monitor, Nov. 15-22, 2016

Details of Russia’s military campaign in Syria:

  • Monitors say Syrian forces backed by Russian air power pounded targets in the eastern sector of Aleppo on Nov. 21, a day after Syrian and Russian troops and allied Shiite Hezbollah militants advanced into a key northeastern Aleppo neighborhood held by rebels for the past four years. (Voice of America, 11.21.16)
  • The Russian military launched long-range bombers from an air base in southern Russia for the first time in a year to strike targets in Syria, two U.S. officials told Fox News on Nov. 17. (Fox News, 11.17.16)
  • Russia may upgrade its naval maintenance facility in the Syrian city of Tartus to a full-fledged naval base in 1 1/2 to two years once an agreement is signed between Moscow and Damascus, a senior lawmaker in Russia's upper house of parliament has said. (Sputnik,11.21.16)

Response to Russia’s military campaign in Syria:

  • U.S. President Barack Obama on Nov. 18 met the leaders of Germany, France, the U.K., Italy and Spain. The leaders stressed joint positions on Ukraine, the migration crisis, the Syrian civil war and called on the Syrian regime, Russia and Iran to stop attacks against the city of Aleppo. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, speaking after the meeting, said the leaders didn't talk about specific sanctions against Russia for its behavior in Syria. (Wall Street Journal, 11.18.16)
  •  “On Syria, it’s clear that the indiscriminate attacks on civilians by the Assad regime and Russia will only worsen the humanitarian catastrophe and that a negotiated end to the conflict is the only way to achieve lasting peace,” U.S. President Barack Obama told a press conference in Germany on Nov. 17. (TIME, 11.17.16)
  • On Nov. 21, Samantha Power, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., called weekend attacks by Syrian and Russian forces on Aleppo “horrifying” and singled out specific commanders, shaming them for their participation. (IBS Times, 11.21.16)

Risk of accidental or intentional confrontation between Western and Russian forces in Syria:

  • “President-elect Trump and I had a frank and positive conversation… I shared with him my grave concerns that escalating the war in Syria by implementing a so-called no-fly/safe zone would be disastrous for the Syrian people, our country and the world. It would lead to more death and suffering, exacerbate the refugee crisis, strengthen ISIS and al-Qaida and bring us into a direct conflict with Russia, which could result in a nuclear war,” said U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii. According to a senior official on the transition team, the 35-year-old Hawaii congresswoman is being considered as a candidate for secretary of state, secretary of defense or U.N. ambassador. (New York Times, 11.22.16, ABC,11.21.16)

Strategies and actions recommended:

  • No significant developments.

Analysis:

  • Political scientist Ivan Krastev and law professor Stephen Holmes: “Without poring over State Department briefing books, Trump has an intuitive sense—justified, in our estimation—that Putin, rather than being a neo-Soviet imperialist, is a besieged leader whose bloody forays beyond Russia’s borders, however risky, have been basically defensive. What Trump offers Putin is not simply cooperation on a range of issues where the two countries’ interests overlap. What he offers, instead, is a shared narrative about what went wrong in the post-Cold War world.” (Foreign Policy, 11.21.16)
  • Historian and political analyst Robert Kagan: “Not only does he [Donald Trump] have a view about America’s role in the world, but it is one shared by many Americans. He may or may not cozy up to Vladimir Putin, have a trade war with China or even build his wall. But on the biggest question of all, from which everything else flows, the question of U.S. responsibility for global order, he clearly has little interest in continuing to shoulder that burden. He aims to put America First, which means we are closer to the end of the 70-year-old U.S. world order.” (Financial Times, 11.19.16)

Other important news:

  • Moscow would consider working with the U.S. in Syria if the new U.S. administration “changes its approach” on key issues, said Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the International Affairs Committee of Russia's Federation Council, the upper house of parliament. (The Moscow Times, 11.21.16)
  • U.S. President Barack Obama had a brief conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Nov. 20 on the sidelines of a summit of Asia-Pacific leaders. Obama told Putin he is "still deeply concerned about the bloodshed and chaos" that is being caused by attacks on Aleppo. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the remaining months of Obama's presidency should be used to pursue a resolution of the Syrian crisis. (Wall Street Journal, 11.20.16, New York Times, 11.21.16, Bloomberg, 11.20.16)
  • U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said he discussed Ukraine and "all aspects" of Aleppo, including renewed bombing in the Syrian city, in a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Speaking to reporters after their one-on-one talk during an Asian-Pacific economic summit in Peru on Nov. 17, Lavrov denied that Russia's military was carrying out air strikes in Aleppo this week. (RFE/RL, 11.18.16)
  • Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who also oversees Russia's military-industrial complex, met with Syria's top leadership on Nov. 22, according to the Interfax news agency. (The Moscow Times, 11.22.16)
  • At a press conference following an economic summit in Peru, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said he and President-elect Donald Trump share an interest in normalizing relations between the U.S. and Russia. In a Nov. 14 phone call, Trump and Putin agreed that terrorism is “the main enemy for America and Russia,” Putin’s foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov has said. (Bloomberg, 11.17.16, AP, 11.21.16)
  • Russia has started contacting colleagues of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to discuss the crisis in Syria. Mikhail Bogdanov, deputy head of Russia's Foreign Ministry, said Nov. 17 that Moscow had been reaching out to Trump's team. “We hope that the departing and incoming administrations will proceed from the fact that without Russia it is impossible to solve the Syria problem," Bogdanov said. (Wall Street Journal, 11.17.16)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said Moscow is considering delivering samples of chemical weapons allegedly used by rebels in Aleppo to The Hague for examination by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. According to Gen. Igor Konashenkov, official spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, testing done by the Defense Ministry has proved the munitions were stuffed with chlorine and white phosphorous. (TASS, 11.21.16, The Moscow Times, 11.22.16)
  • The U.N. Security Council has unanimously approved a one-year extension of an international inquiry to determine blame for chemical weapons attacks in Syria. The inquiry was expanded at Russia's request on Nov. 17 to focus more on the "terrorist chemical threat" within the region. (RFE/RL, 11.17.16)
  • Germany said on Nov. 21 that Russia and Iran are partly responsible for the suffering of hundreds of thousands of people besieged by Syrian government forces in Aleppo. German government spokesman Steffen Seibert says the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad wouldn’t be able to continue pounding the city without the help of its foreign allies. (AP, 11.21.16)
  • Russian tankers have smuggled jet fuel to Syria through EU waters, bolstering military supplies to the war-torn country where Moscow is carrying out air strikes in support of the government, according to sources with knowledge of the matter. (Reuters, 11.22.16)