Details of Russia’s military campaign in Syria:

• A source in the Russian Defense Ministry told Gazeta.ru on Nov. 8 that a group of Russian warships led by the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier will launch strikes on the area surrounding the Syrian city of Aleppo within the next 24 hours. Both air bombs and missiles will be employed in the “large-scale” strikes, including the Kalibr cruise missiles, according to the source. In the meantime, military observers told British press that the Admiral Kuznetsov was off the coast of Cyprus as of Nov. 8. (Gazeta.ru, 11.08.16, Mirror, 11.08.16)
• The Kremlin said on Nov. 7 Russia's air force would stick to the ceasefire in Syria's Aleppo unless militants launch an offensive. "The [Russian] president deems a regime when Russian air forces don't carry out strikes on eastern Aleppo as reasonable if militants don't start combat action," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. (Reuters, 11.07.16)
• At least nine civilians were killed Nov. 8 when airstrikes targeted a town in the rebel-held province of Idlib in northwestern Syria, a monitor group reported. The group gave no details on the identity of the warplanes, with other activists suggesting they were Russian. (Xinhua, 11.08.16)
• The Russian Defense Ministry has refuted foreign media reports claiming that Russian Aerospace Defense Forces delivered airstrikes on residential areas near Damascus in the East Ghouta region and Douma district on Nov. 8. (TASS, 11.08.16)
• Two Russian soldiers and a Syrian journalist were injured in Aleppo on Nov. 4 when mortar rounds struck one of the exit corridors designated for the evacuation of rebels and residents from the eastern besieged part of the city during a temporary halt in fighting announced by Russia. (AP, 11.04.16)
• A Russian helicopter made an emergency landing near Palmyra on Nov. 3 and was shot at after it touched down, but the crew returned safely to the Hmeimim air base, Russian news agencies quoted Russia's defense ministry as saying. (Reuters, 11.04.16)
• The start of this year proved deadly for one unit of about 100 Russian fighters supporting President Bashar al-Assad's troops in northern Syria as private contractors. One of the men killed was a former assistant to a nationalist lawmaker in Russia’s parliament. He and a fellow fighter, also killed in Syria, had fought in Ukraine as part of the same unit that would eventually take them to Syria. It was led by a man who goes by the nomme de guerre “Vagner.” (Reuters, 11.03.16, Vestnik Kavkaza, 11.03.16)

Response to Russia’s military campaign in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Risk of accidental or intentional confrontation between Western and Russian forces in Syria:

• Almost half of respondents of a recent poll conducted by the Levada Center in Russia said they fear the Syrian conflict could evolve into a Third World War. (The Moscow Times, 11.02.16)
• U.S. and Russian defense officials have discussed additional flight safety measures in Syria during a video conference for the first time since Sept. 22. On Oct. 28 Russian and U.S. jets were involved in a “near miss” in Syria. Following the incident, U.S. officials complained that similar situations happen almost “weekly.” (RT, 11.03.16)

Strategies and actions recommended:

• Steven Heydemann of Brookings Institution’s Center for Middle East Policy argues that “two steps are needed to advance America’s Syria policy. The first is to move beyond a discussion limited to no-fly zones or increased support to the armed opposition; the second is a clear-eyed, fact-based assessment of just how risky further American involvement might be. Both are possible between now and when the next president takes office.” (New York Times, 11.02.16)
• In one of her last acts as secretary of state in early 2013, Hillary Clinton wrote a confidential memo to the White House on how to handle Vladimir Putin. Her bluntly worded advice: Snub him. (The Washington Post, 11.03.16)

Analysis:

• Paul R. Pillar, senior fellow at the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University, believes that “the likely result of added military pressure on the Assad regime would be not a greater willingness of Assad to negotiate, but instead a greater determination to keep fighting to move the military situation more in its favor—with the help of Russia, playing a situation-moving role somewhat similar to the role the Chinese played in Korea.” (The National Interest, 11.05.16)

Other important news:

• The Syrian army said it had taken a strategic district of Aleppo on Nov. 8, in what would be the most important advance in the divided city by Damascus. The 1070 Apartments district is located on the southwestern outskirts of Aleppo and lies alongside the government's corridor into the parts of the city that it controls. (Reuters, 11.08.16)
• An offensive by Syrian insurgents aimed at the government-held part of the northern city of Aleppo has killed at least 74 civilians, including 25 children, an opposition monitoring group said on Nov. 5. (AP, 11.05.16)
• Islamic State fighters under siege by Iraqi forces have increasingly sent explosive-packed cars and trucks barreling toward the front lines. The Iraqi military's answer to armored vehicle bombs are Russian-made antitank Kornet missiles mounted atop  American-made Humvees. (Wall Street Journal, 11.04.16)
• The key goal of the Syrian settlement is to preserve the country’s integrity and prevent its split into terrorist enclaves, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has said. "Russia’s position is that there is no military solution to the Syrian issue," Medvedev said. "This is not about the fate of certain leaders, although, certainly they cannot be taken out of this context, this does not concern the discussion on the personal issue linked to Bashar Assad although he is current president and legitimate president and should take part in this," he stressed. (TASS, 11.04.16)
• Senior Russian diplomat Alexei Borodavkin urged the incoming U.S. president to work with his country to resolve the war in Syria. He said Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to cement a more-than-two-week pause in the bombing of Aleppo into a lasting truce through talks with the U.S. and regional powers. (Bloomberg, 11.02.16)
• A new poll by the Levada Center shows that support among Russians for Moscow’s airstrikes in Syria is still high: 52% of respondents said they support the attacks overall, a little lower than a year ago, when it was 55%. But the number of those who “fully” support the bombings fell by 5 percentage points from 21% to 16%. (The Moscow Times, 11.02.16)
• At the launch of the University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll, researchers explored Americans’ views on ISIS and Syria. According to the poll, 67% of Republicans, 53% of Democrats and 67% of independents would like to see the United States work alongside Russia in the fight against ISIS in Syria. At the same time 30% of Democrats and 8% of Republicans named Russian President Vladimir Putin their least-liked world leader. (Foreign Policy, 11.01.16)
• Only 30% of Americans regard Russia's territorial ambitions as a "critical threat"—compared with 38% who regard China's military power as such. Yet 56% of Russians see American ambitions abroad as a "critical threat,” according to a joint study put out by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Levada Center. More Russians (63%) believed Islamic fundamentalism was a "critical threat" to their country than Americans (59%). (The Washington Post , 11.04.16)
• Officials in Moscow say Russia and Turkey are resuming military cooperation and plan to hold a meeting of an intergovernmental commission before the end of 2016. (RFE/RL, 11.07.16)
• The Federal Security Service (FSB) and police in Russia's Volgograd region have arrested three men who are suspected of financing terrorist activities in Syria. (The Moscow Times, 11.07.16)

News items for this digest curated by Simon Saradzhyan, director of the Russia Matters Project.