The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, Jan. 8, 2025
The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, Jan. 8, 2025
Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive.
Jan. 8 update: Russian forces are within 3 miles of Pokrovsk. Net territorial change in the past month: Russia +148 square miles—the equivalent of 6 1/2 Manhattan islands. Russia has regained 63% of the territory Ukraine captured in the 2024 incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. Ukraine currently controls 184 of the 470 square miles it occupied in that region as of mid-September 2024, the equivalent of 8 Manhattan islands.
Who’s Gaining and Who’s Losing What?
Territorial Control
Report Card*
Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory1
- Since Feb. 24, 2022:
- Russia: +26,875 square miles. 12% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. states of Massachusetts, Vermont and New Hampshire combined).
- Total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022:
- Russia: +43,500 square miles. 19% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the states of Massachusetts, Maryland and Hawaii combined.)
- In past month (Dec. 11, 2024–Jan. 8, 2025): Russia gained 148 square miles. Area roughly equivalent to 6 1/2 Manhattan islands.
- In past week: Russia gained 44 square miles, the equivalent of 2 Manhattan islands.
- In past two months:
- Ukraine suffered a net loss of 189 square miles, the equivalent of 8 Manhattan islands.
Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–December 2024. (Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)
Russian aerial attacks and Ukrainian interceptions2
Since Sept 2022:
- Russia launched
- 15,725 drones
- 321 ballistic missiles
- 3,240 cruise missiles
- Ukraine intercepted
- 11,659 drones
- 51 ballistic missiles
- 2,299 cruise missiles
In Dec 2024:
- Russia launched
- 1,881 drones
- 27 ballistic missiles
- 103 cruise missiles
- Ukraine intercepted
- 1,018 drones
- 6 ballistic missiles
- 74 cruise missiles
Military casualties
- Russia: Close to 600,000 killed or injured. 48,000 missing.
- Ukraine: 400,000 killed or injured. 35,000 missing.
Civilian fatalities
Military vehicles and equipment3
Citizens displaced
- Russia: 800,000 emigrated for economic or political reasons, 0.6% of Russian population.
- Ukraine: 10.2 million displaced Ukrainians, 23% of Ukrainian pre-invasion population of 44 million.
Economic impact4
- Russia’s economic growth: 5.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
- Ukraine’s negative economic growth: -22.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
Infrastructure
- Russia: No significant damage.
- Ukraine: 64%, or 36 out of 56 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied, Ukraine relies for 2/3rds of its electricity generation on three functioning Soviet-era NPPs, which it still controls.
Popular support5
Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):
- Ammunition supply
- Foreign military aid
- Force generation
- Military leadership
- Training
- Morale
- Control of strategic locations
- Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.
Footnotes
- This issue of the war report card has been amended to specify that our measurements of changes in Russia's territorial control include Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia's armed forces and its proxies since 2014.
- Jensen, Benjamin and Yasir Atalan, “Russian Firepower Strike Tracker: Analyzing Missile Attacks in Ukraine,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 17, 2024, https://www.csis.org/programs/futures-lab/projects/russian-firepower-strike-tracker-analyzing-missile-attacks-ukraine?f%5B0%5D=content_type%3Aarticle&f%5B1%5D=content_type%3Areport Note that due to limitations associated with refreshing of attack and intercept data, this section of the scorecard is updated once a month.
- Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” Oryx (blog), https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List Of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html.
- International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Investing.com, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,” https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3; https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01.
- Levada Center, “Conflict with Ukraine in November 2024,” Dec. 4, 2022, https://www.levada.ru/2024/12/04/konflikt-s-ukrainoj-v-noyabre-2024-goda-vnimanie-podderzhka-otnoshenie-k-peregovoram-trudnosti-i-uspehi-svo-stolknovenie-rossii-i-nato-primenenie-yadernogo-oruzhiya/; Razumkov Center, “Support among citizens for Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO. Attitude to foreign countries. Attitude to peace talks (September, 2024),” https://razumkov.org.ua/en/sociology/press-releases/support-among-citizens-for-ukraine-s-accession-to-the-eu-and-nato-attitude-to-foreign-countries-attitude-to-peace-talks-september-2024.
*Originally produced by Kate Davidson, a researcher with the Avoiding Great Power War Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Since December 2024 produced by RM staff and researcher with Belfer Center’s Preventing Great Power War Project Quinn Ulrich.
This issue's report of change in territorial control in Ukraine has been revised to reflect changes in territorial control from the past two months (Nov. 7, 2024 to Jan. 8th, 2025) to the past 27 days (Dec. 11, 2024 to Jan. 8, 2025).
Russia-Ukraine War Report Card