The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, Feb. 12, 2025

Find past issues in the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card archive. 

Feb. 12 update: Russia gained 151 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (6 ½ Manhattan islands) in the past month, while in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, Ukraine gained 2 square miles. These gains were made as negotiations on ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict got to a start with Trump speaking to Putin by phone, sending his envoy Witkoff for 3½ hours of talks in Moscow and revealing plans to meet the Russian leader in Saudi Arabia.

Who’s Gaining and Who’s Losing What?

Territorial Control (figures as of Feb. 12, 2025)

Report Card*

Change in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory. 

(Based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.)

• Since Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +27,050 square miles. 12% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. states of Massachusetts, Vermont and New Hampshire combined).1
• Total area of all Ukrainian territory Russia presently controls, including Crimea and parts of Donbas Russia had seized prior to the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +43,675 square miles. 19% of Ukraine. (Area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Virginia.)
• In past month (Jan. 15–Feb. 12, 2025): Russia gained 151 square miles. Area roughly equivalent to about 1 ½ Nantucket islands.2
• In past week: Russia gained 45 square miles, the equivalent of 2 Manhattan islands 
  • Ukraine gained 2 square miles in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

Russian net territorial control in Ukraine by month: February 2022–January 2025.(Also based on data from the Institute for the Study of War.) 

Military casualties

• Russia: More than 700,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate.3 48,000 missing.
• Ukraine: 400,000 killed or injured, according to a January 2025 estimate.4 35,000 missing.

Civilian fatalities

• Russia: 387 killed.
• Ukraine: 12,340 killed.

Military vehicles and equipment⁵

• Russia: 20,309 lost. 
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 11,786.
  • Aircraft: 286.
  • Naval vessels: 22.6
• Ukraine: 7,814 lost. 
  • Tanks and armored vehicles: 3,910.
  • Aircraft: 173.
  • Naval vessels: 35.7

Citizens displaced

• Russia: 800,000 emigrated for economic or political reasons, 0.6% of Russian population.
• Ukraine: 10.2 million displaced Ukrainians, 23% of Ukrainian pre-invasion population of 44 million.
  • Internally displaced: 3.7 million.
  • International refugees: 6.5 million.

Economic impact⁸

• Russia’s economic growth: 5.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • 1.6% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
  • Budget deficit in 2024: 1.7%  of GDP.
  • Russian ruble: 0.01036 U.S. dollars. -13% since invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 17.42%⁹
• Ukraine’s negative economic growth: -22.6% GDP since 2022 (through 2024)
  • 2.5% GDP growth forecast for 2025.
  • Budget deficit in 2024: 20.4% of GDP, excluding grants.
  • Ukrainian hryvnia:  0.02398 U.S. dollars. -27% since invasion.
  • 3-year bond yield: 24.7%

Infrastructure

• Russia: A journalistic investigation estimated in March 2024 that Ukrainian strikes had rendered facilities which accounted for 1/6^th of the production of gasoline and diesel fuels in Russia non-operational.
• Ukraine: 64%, or 36 out of 56 GW electricity generating capacity destroyed or occupied, Ukraine relies for 2/3rds of its electricity generation on three functioning Soviet-era NPPs, which it still controls.

Popular support

• Russia: 61% support peace negotiations.
• Ukraine: 51% support peace negotiations.

Other criteria which may be even more important (about which we continue to search for reliable indicators):

• Ammunition supply
• Foreign military aid
• Force generation
• Military leadership
• Training
• Morale
• Control of strategic locations
• Information war: with U.S./Europe; with world.

Footnotes

1. According to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s maps, as of 02.12.25, Russian forces occupied 112,199 square kilometers (43,320 square miles), which constituted 18.6% of Ukrainian territory and which is roughly equivalent in area to the U.S. state of Virginia. 
2. In the past 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 507 square kilometers (196 square miles), the equivalent to some 8.5 Manhattan Islands, in Ukraine, according to a 02.12.25 estimate by the Economist.
3. According to Donald Trump’s January 2025 estimate, 1 million Russian soldiers have been killed.
4. According to Trump’s January 2025 estimate, 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed.
5. Oryx, “Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” Oryx (blog), https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html; “The Military Balance 2022,” IISS, https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2022; Oryx, “List Of Aircraft Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html; Oryx, “List Of Naval Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine,” https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-naval-losses-during-2022.html. 
6. Not being updated as of 2025.
7. Not being updated as of 2025.
8. International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Russian estimates. “Russia and Ukraine 3-Year Bond Yield,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank Group, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update,” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/94bdc078-9c64-4833-992a-fda7b3d1a640/content; World Bank, “Russian Federation MPO,” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf; Investing.com, “Russia 3-Year Bond Yield,” https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/russia-3-year-bond-yield; World Bank, “The World Bank in Ukraine,” https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ukraine/overview#3; https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/rub-usd-2024-11-01.
9. Not being updated as of 2024.

*This card is being produced by RM staff and researcher with Belfer Center’s Avoiding Great Power War Project Quinn Urich.