5 Things to Know

1. The U.S., U.K. and France have continued to debate this week whether to allow Ukraine to use some Western-supplied long-range missiles for long-range strikes at targets inside Russia, such as U.K.-built Storm Shadows and their French-made equivalents, Scalps, that rely on U.S. equipment for navigation, thus, giving Washington the right of veto for their use. The Biden administration is reportedly poised to approve Storm Shadows and Scalps for such use (though not on Sept. 13), but it remains divided on whether to allow use of U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) for the same purpose. The U.S. State Department is open to Kyiv’s request for use of ATACMS, while the Pentagon and the intelligence agencies are skeptical, according to FT. But even the use of Storm Shadows and Scalps inside Russia would mean NATO countries are at war with Russia, according to Vladimir Putin’s Sept. 12 remarks, which were echoed by his spokesman Dmitry Peskov and his U.N. envoy Vasily Nebenzia. The fear in the White House is that hardliners in the Kremlin could insist this retaliation takes the form of attacking transit points for missiles on their way to Ukraine, such as an airbase in Poland in what would lead to invoking of NATO’s Article 5, meaning the alliance would be at war with Russia, according to the BBC.

   Asked on Friday about Russia’s threats, John Kirby, the White House spokesman, said that Mr. Putin “has obviously proven capable of escalation over the last now going on three years. So yeah, we take, we take these comments seriously.” “But,” he added, “it is not something that we haven’t heard before.” (NYT, 09.13.24)

   Lord Kim Darroch, Britain’s former national security adviser, said western allies should think carefully about Putin’s warnings of a war between Moscow and NATO. “We really don’t want to escalate this,” he told FT.

   Matthew Savill of RUSI believes lifting restrictions on use of Western-made long-range missiles by Ukraine would pose a dilemma for Russia as to where to position its precious air defenses. Ultimately however, such use is unlikely to turn the tide, according to Savill. If Savill’s estimate is accurate, then as was the case with prior steps in the ladder of arming Ukraine, the use of Storm Shadows and Scalps would be a morale booster for the Ukrainian leadership and would also generate some benefits on the battlefield, but wouldn’t be a game changer.*¹

   William Burns of CIA and Richard Moore of MI6 said it would be wrong to take Putin’s threats of nuclear escalation lightly but that the West should not be unnecessarily intimidated, according to FT.

2. Ukraine's leaders have been insisting that Russia needs to be driven out of all Ukrainian territory before any peace talks, but a combination of two factors now compel Kyiv to “come up with a more realistic plan, at least for the next year of the war,” European diplomats told WSJ. These factors are Russian forces’ gains in the east and “Western support for Ukraine showing signs of fatigue,” WSJ reported. “Kyiv has been told that a full Ukrainian victory would require the West to provide hundreds of billions of dollars worth of support,” which is unrealistic to expect, according to WSJ’s article, entitled “Ukraine Pressed to Think About a Plan B for War With Russia." U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said prior to arriving in Kyiv on Sept. 11 that his trip was in part to see “exactly how the Ukrainians see their needs in this moment, toward what objectives and what we can do to support those needs,” WSJ reported. While no details about Ukraine’s war aims were reported following Blinken’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the latter has revealed that he plans to present a “victory plan” during his visit to the U.S. later this week, according to Ukrainian media. He said the plan will not have many points and each point will depend on Biden's decision, according to RBC.ua.

3. The Russian army's advances in the eastern Donetsk region have moved the frontline to within 8 kilometers of the key transportation hub of Pokrovsk this week, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry. Capturing this city and the nearby city of  Chasiv Yar would disrupt Ukrainian supply lines along the eastern front and give Russian forces a big strategic advantage in seizing the rest of the Donbas region, which Putin has declared part of Russia, according to WSJ,² NYT and Newsweek. On Sept. 7, NYT reported that Russia’s drive toward Pokrovsk had stalled along one part of the frontline. However, on Sept. 12, Ukraine's OSINT group Deep State reported that the Russian forces advanced in Hrodivka, which lies about 10 kilometers to the east of Pokrovsk.

   The Russian army’s offensive tactics in eastern Ukraine continue to depend on glide bombs and artillery superiority, according to The Economist. That superiority ranges from at least 3:1 up to 10:1 in some sections, according to The Economist and U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey. According to Healey, Russia is also conscripting or recruiting 400,000 additional soldiers this year. That equals almost half of the total number of troops available to Ukrainian command, according to SACEUR Christopher Cavoli.

4. On Sept. 10, Russian troops reportedly began to push the Ukrainian forces back from Russia’s southwestern Kursk region in a counteroffensive, according to MT.  Zelenskyy acknowledged the pushback, but enigmatically claimed that “Everything is going according to the Ukrainian plan,” according to Bloomberg. On Sept. 12, the Russian defense ministry claimed its forces had retaken 10 settlements in the Kursk region, or about 63 of about 900 square kilometers of land, which Ukrainian forces controlled in that region as of earlier this week, according to FT and the U.K. Defense Department.

5. In their first and possibly last debate on Sept. 10, former U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris crossed swords on a number of issues, including whether a quick peace is attainable in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Trump claimed that he “will get the war with Ukraine and Russia ended… before even becoming president.” Harris countered with asserting that “I believe the reason Donald Trump says this war would be over within 24 hours is because he would just give it up,” according to MT.

   Republican vice-presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance has laid out a potential Trump administration's approach to ending Russia's war in Ukraine, saying Trump's handling of the conflict could include establishing a "demilitarized zone" in Ukrainian territory now occupied by Russia, according to WP. As part of the peace plan, Vance said, Ukraine would maintain its independence in exchange for a guarantee of neutrality—meaning Ukraine wouldn't join NATO or other "allied institutions,” WP reported.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Ukraine’s top energy official warned that further Russian airstrikes against the country’s energy grid could trigger an emergency at one of the three operating nuclear power plants still under Kyiv’s control. At stake are 10 crucial nodes linked to nuclear power plants, whose destruction could plunge the country into darkness and provoke a radiological emergency, Ukraine’s Energy Minister German Galushchenko said. (Bloomberg, 09.11.24)
• The International Atomic Energy Agency will expand the representation of its monitoring missions in Ukraine to infrastructure facilities that affect the safety of nuclear power plants, reported Energoatom’s press service Sept. 13. (Korrespondent.net, 09.13.24)
• The IAEA issued a new report on Sept. 4 on its efforts to ensure nuclear safety and security during the conflict in Ukraine. The report says the continued presence of the IAEA staff at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) has been essential in assessing nuclear safety and security with the aim of preventing a nuclear accident. The situation at the ZNPP remains precarious and very fragile, Director General Rafael Grossi said in the report’s foreword. (IAEA, Sept. 2024)
• On the night of Sept. 12, a Russian kamikaze attack drone flew in close proximity to the Khmelnitsky NPP. This was reported by the head of the Khmelnitsky military administration, Serhiy Tyurin. (Korrespondent.net, 09.12.24)
• According to Secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to seize the Kursk nuclear power plant. "The desire to carry out nuclear terror against the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant is nothing other than the highest level of terrorism, I would say," he claimed. (Media Zone, 09.10.24)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has called on Russian officials to consider restrictions on exports of commodities including uranium, in retaliation against fresh Western sanctions against Moscow and its allies. “Please take a look at some of the types of goods that we supply to the world market . . . Maybe we should think about certain restrictions — uranium, titanium, nickel,” Russia’s president said in a televised meeting with top government officials on Sept. 11. Putin emphasized that the suggestion was in response to Western pressure. (FT, 09.11.24)
• Meirzhan Yussupov, chief of the Kazakh state uranium miner, said sanctions caused by the war had created obstacles to supplying Western utilities. Kazakhstan produces 43% of the world’s uranium.  “It is much easier for us to sell most, if not all, of our production to our Asian partners — I wouldn’t call [out] the specific country . . . They can eat up almost all of our production, or our partners to the north,” he said. (FT, 09.10.24)
• Rosatom’s Atomstroyexport and Uzbekistan’s State Enterprise Directorate for Construction of the Nuclear Power Plant under the Uzatom Agency signed a protocol on the commencement of work at the construction site of the future small-capacity NPP Uzbekistan. (Rosatom, 09.12.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Shoigu held talks in Pyongyang with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during a visit. Shoigu and Kim discussed a wide range of bilateral and international topics when they met Sept. 13, according to a statement from the Russian Security Council. The meeting is aimed at facilitating a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership treaty that Kim signed with Putin in June, it said. The visit is Shoigu’s second to North Korea in a little more than a year. (Bloomberg, 09.13.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• The U.S., U.K., Germany and France have announced a fresh round of sanctions against Iran after accusing Tehran of sending ballistic missiles to Russia for its war in Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Russia was expected to deploy the new missiles against Ukraine “within weeks.” Ukrainian officials told FT at the weekend that Iran had delivered a shipment of “more than 200” Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. Blinken said the missiles, which have a maximum range of 75 miles (120km), offered Moscow “additional capability and additional flexibility,” allowing Russia to save its existing long-range missiles for targets further inside Ukraine. (FT, 09.10.24)
  • Asked whether Iran had shipped short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, CIA’s William Burns said that doing so would “mark a dramatic escalation.” (FT, 09.07.24)
  • The EU said Sept. 9 its allies had shared intelligence that Iran supplied Russia with ballistic missiles, and warned of new sanctions on Tehran if the deliveries were confirmed. (MT/AFP, 09.09.24)
  • Iran denied reports it supplied Russia with ballistic missiles, saying it doesn’t provide military support to either side in the Russia-Ukraine war. “The fundamental and stated approach of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding the Ukraine conflict remains consistent and unchanged,” the state-run IRNA reported, citing Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Nasser Kanaani. Iran has also vowed to deliver a “symmetric and proportionate” response after Britain, France and Germany canceled air services agreements with Tehran and pledged to sanction its flag carrier, Iran Air.  (Bloomberg, 09.08.24, RFE/RL, 09.11.24)
• The EU has condemned the recent alleged transfer of Iranian-made ballistic missiles to Russia and is considering new sanctions against Tehran in response. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Sept. 13 that the EU would "respond swiftly and in coordination with international partners" and was considering ways to target Iran's already heavily sanctioned aviation sector. (RFE/RL, 09.13.24)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• In August alone, 184 civilians were killed in Russian strikes against Ukraine, according to the U.N. (FT, 09.12.24)
• Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Andriy Kostin accused an unnamed Russian Air Force commander of ordering a devastating air strike on a children's hospital in Kyiv in July, during a Sept. 10 visit to the scene of the tragedy alongside the International Criminal Court's visiting top prosecutor. (RFE/RL, 09.10.24)
• Authorities in southwestern Russia’s Kursk region said Sept. 11 that more than 150,000 people living in communities near the border with Ukraine have been forced to evacuate their homes in the weeks since Kyiv launched its surprise incursion early last month. Ukraine’s incursion is estimated to have cost the Kursk region’s agricultural sector some 85 billion rubles ($932.6 million). (MT/AFP, 09.11.24)
• Relatives of residents of the Kursk region city of Sudzha and the Sudzhansky district wrote a letter in which they addressed Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to ask for a humanitarian corridor for the evacuation of civilians from the Sudzhansky district and to begin negotiations on the evacuation of people. (Meduza, 09.13.24)
• Russia and Ukraine have exchanged prisoners according to the formula "49 for 49." The information was confirmed by Zelenskyy. "These are soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, the National Police, the State Border Service, as well as our civilians," he wrote. The Russian side has received among other things, servicemen who surrendered in the Kursk region. (Istories, 09.13.24)
• In August 2024, Russians wrote almost 2,000 inquiries to the president to search for missing or captured servicemen. This is a record number of complaints. The total number of requests to search for missing servicemen since February 2022 has reached almost 20,000. (Istories, 09.13.24)
• A Russian missile struck an international cargo ship in the Black Sea carrying wheat bound for Egypt shortly after it left Ukrainian waters, Zelenskyy has said. The vessel is named Aya and sails under the flag of Saint Kitts and Nevis, sources told the FT. It left the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk on Sept. 11 morning, carrying over 26,000 tons of wheat. (FT, 09.12.24)
• Zelenskyy and Italian leader Giorgia Meloni agreed to work toward a conference in Italy next year focused on the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, even as a cease-fire with Russia remains elusive. (Bloomberg, 09.07.24)
• Dutch election winner Geert Wilders said he discussed Ukrainian refugees who stay in the Netherlands long-term and the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage in his first face-to-face meeting with Zelenskyy. (Bloomberg, 09.07.24)
• Ukraine passed a loan-program staff review by the International Monetary Fund that will unlock a $1.1 billion payment for the war-battered country. The Washington-based lender’s economists finalized the fifth scheduled review of its $15.6 billion assistance program for Ukraine, the fund said in a statement on Sept. 10. (Bloomberg, 09.10.24)
  • Ukraine’s prime minister said the IMF had urged the government to adhere to corporate standards after this month’s dismissal of the power grid chief sparked complaints by donors. Just over a week after Ukrenergo CEO Volodymyr Kudrytskyi was removed from his post by the power grid’s board, Premier Denys Shmyhal said IMF negotiators urged Kyiv to appoint a CEO and supervisory board in line with corporate reform obligations. (Bloomberg, 09.10.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Ukraine's leaders have insisted that Russia needs to be driven out of all Ukrainian territory before any peace talks could begin. Now, with Russia continuing to make slow gains on the battlefield and Western support for Ukraine showing signs of fatigue, Ukraine may need to come up with a more realistic plan, at least for the next year of the war, according to European diplomats. The talks point to a recurring source of tension between Kyiv and the West: reconciling the desire to evict Putin’s forces from Ukraine with the military reality on the ground. Senior European officials say Kyiv has been told that a full Ukrainian victory would require the West to provide hundreds of billions of dollars worth of support, something neither Washington nor Europe can realistically do. (WSJ, 09.11.24)
• CIA director Bill Burns said Ukraine’s Kursk incursion was “a significant tactical achievement” that had boosted Ukrainian morale and exposed Russia’s weaknesses. It has “raised questions . . . across the Russian elite about where is this all headed”, he said. Richard Moore  of MI6 said the Kursk offensive was “a typically audacious and bold move by the Ukrainians . . . to try and change the game” — although he cautioned it was “too early” to say how long Kyiv’s forces would be able to control the Russian territory they had seized. Neither Burns nor Moore suggested that the Kursk offensive would change the course of the war. (FT, 09.07.24, NYT, 09.07.24)
  • Although the surprise move by Ukraine in the Kursk region has been celebrated inside Ukraine as a humiliation for Putin, concerns are growing in the West that it could be a drain on Kyiv's ability to defend itself in the long run. Ukrainian officials had hoped that the offensive would force Russia to withdraw troops critical to the offensive inside Ukraine. But indications are growing that Moscow hasn't taken the bait, and the Russian offensive is continuing to take strategic territory inside eastern Ukraine. (WSJ, 09.11.24)
  • A month into Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region, U.S. and European officials still question what Kyiv’s endgame is for the 500 square miles (1,300 sq. km) of Russian territory it says its forces now occupy. Some allied officials fear Kyiv could be forced to give up that land within a few months if Moscow mounts a larger counterattack. (Bloomberg, 09.07.24)
  • Ukrainian officials said Moscow has sent some 30,000 troops into the Kursk region. Two officers with knowledge of the situation said these reinforcements included soldiers from the now dissolved Wagner Private Military Company who the officers believed had been redeployed from West Africa. (CNN, 09.13.24)
• Russian tactics in eastern Ukraine have not changed substantially since the fall of Avdiivka in February. Then as now, they depend on glide bombs and an artillery superiority that still ranges from at least 3:1 up to 10:1 in some sections. The operations are usually led by groups of two or three infantry soldiers, usually dismounted. (The Economist, 09.08.24)
• As of Sept. 7, Russia’s drive toward the Donetsk region city of Pokrovsk has stalled along one part of the frontline, but its troops continued to advance in other parts of eastern Ukraine. Battlefield maps based on open sources such as satellite images and videos posted online also showed the halt. Ukraine has reinforced its troops in the area around Pokrovsk with soldiers from two brigades, both of which posted videos and statements showing their presence near the city. At least one brigade had been moved from another section of the frontline, potentially weakening defenses there. (NYT, 09.07.24)
  • Pokrovsk is one of the two cities that hold the key to Russia’s fight in Ukraine’s East. The other one is Chasiv Yar, which is also in the Donetsk region. Capturing those two cities would put Russia in position to try to take the rest of the eastern Donetsk region, which Putin has declared part of Russia. Russia has been steadily advancing toward Pokrovsk, with its troops just a few miles outside the city. (WSJ, 09.12.24) The WSJ analysis features useful maps.
  • If Russia captures Pokrovsk, it would gain a big strategic advantage in seizing the rest of the Donbas region. Pokrovsk is at the center of many of the rail and road lines for the whole of the Donbas. A successful Russian assault would cut the main supply lines for troops in the remaining Ukrainian strongholds across the region, and would position Moscow's forces to menace Ukrainian lines to the south of the city. (NYT, 09.11.24)
  • The Ukrainian military has prepared for urban combat in Pokrovsk, setting up concrete pillboxes on some roadsides. Russia’s offensive over the past about 10 days had concentrated on rural areas south of the city, but Pokrovsk remains at risk. (NYT, 09.12.24)
  • Since April, Russian troops passed five lines of Ukrainian fortifications. Only two now remain between the front line and the city, Pokrovsk’s military administrator said. (NYT, 09.13.24)
• On Sept. 7, Russian shelling of the Donetsk region killed five people, regional authorities said. Three men between the ages of 24 and 69 were killed in the town of Kostyantynivka. Four people were injured, he said. Two men in their 50s were reported killed in shelling near the town of Toretsk about 20 kilometers to the southeast of Kostyantynivka. Two people were killed in air strikes on Mykolayivka, a city in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region. (RFE/RL, 09.07.24, RFE/RL, 09.08.24)
• On Sept. 7, Russia claimed it had seized another village in eastern Ukraine. The defense ministry said Russian forces "have liberated the village of Kalynove" in the Donetsk region, which lies around 25 kilometers (16 miles) southeast of the key logistics hub of Pokrovsk. (MT/AFP, 09.07.24)
• On Sept. 8, the Russian army claimed to have captured the town of Novohrodivka in the Donetsk region, some 20 kilometers from Pokrovsk city. (MT/AFP, 09.08.24)
• On Sept. 8, a Russian air strike on the Ukrainian border city of Sumy killed two people and wounded several others. On Sept. 8, Russian forces were also reported to have captured two villages in eastern Ukraine: Nevelske and Vodiane, according to DeepState, a group of Ukrainian analysts mapping the battlefield. (NYT, 09.09.24, MT/AFP, 09.08.24)
• On Sept. 8, Ukrainian officials reported that Russian attacks overnight killed and wounded several Ukrainian civilians at various locations. In a video published late on Sept. 8, Zelenskyy said that over the last week, Russian forces had targeted Ukraine with “more than 800 anti-tank missiles, almost 300 Shahed drones and more than 60 ballistic missiles.” (RFE/RL, 09.08.24)
• On Sept. 9, Russia said its forces had captured the east Ukrainian village of Memryk, a steppingstone to the Kyiv-held logistics hub of Pokrovsk some 20 kilometers (12 miles) away. (MT/AFP, 09.09.24)
• On Sept. 10, Russia's Defense Ministry claimed to have captured the town of Krasnohorivka in eastern Ukraine, as well as three villages in different parts of the Donetsk region: Hryhorivkа, Halytsynivka and Vodyane. (MT/AFP, 09.10.24)
• On Sept. 10, U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey estimated that Russia’s tactical advances are bringing Pokrovsk within approximately 8 kilometers now of the frontline. (UK.gov, 09.10.24)
• On Sept. 10, Russia said it downed 144 drones. Anti-missile systems downed 20 drones in the Moscow region alone, Russia’s Defense Ministry said. Moscow’s Domodedovo, Vnukovo and Zhukovsky airports temporarily suspended operations. On Sept. 10, Russia for the first time reported a civilian death in a Moscow suburb caused by one of the attacking drones. (Bloomberg, 09.10.24, FT, 09.10.24, WSJ, 09.10.24)
• On Sept. 10, Russian troops were reported to have begun pushing back Ukrainian forces from the southwestern Kursk region in a counteroffensive. On Sept. 10, a Russian brigade began advancing in the Kursk region with fighting continuing on Sept. 11, Apti Alaudinov, a military commander, told state-run Rossiiskaya Gazeta newspaper Russian forces may intend to temporarily bisect the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast before beginning a more organized and well-equipped effort to push Ukrainian forces out of Russian territory. (MT/AFP, 09.11.24, ISW, 09.11.24, Bloomberg, 09.11.24)
  • On Sept. 12, both Ukraine and Russia said the Russian army was pursuing a counteroffensive in the Kursk region. “Everything is going according to the Ukrainian plan,” Zelenskyy said of the counteroffensive. Russia’s Defense Ministry, at almost the same time as the Ukrainian president was speaking, claimed its troops retook 10 settlements in the Kursk region in the past two days. (Bloomberg, 09.12.24)
  • On Sept. 10, U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey estimated that around 900 square kilometers of territory is now held by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region. (U.K..Gov, 09.10.24)
• On Sept. 11, Ukraine’s Deep State OSINT group reported that in its assessment the Russian army occupied Lisivka and also advanced near Klishchiivka, Nevelske, and in Ukrainsk. (RM, 09.12.24)
• On Sept. 11, Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 20 Shahed-type suicide drones launched by Russia. (RFE/RL, 09.11.24)
• On Sept. 11, Ukrainian military drones targeted northwestern Russia’s Murmansk region for the second time in a month. (MT/AFP, 09.11.24)
  • Ukrainian drones have targeted this region at least twice over the past month. Taking place some 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles) from Russia’s border with Ukraine, the drone attacks mark the deepest strikes inside Russian territory. (MT/AFP, 09.12.24)
• On Sept. 12, Ukraine's OSINT group Deep State reported that the Russian army advanced near Makiivka, Krasnohorivka, Hrodivka, as well as near Pishchane and Prechystivka. (RM, 09.13.24)
• On Sept. 12, the Russian defense ministry claimed its forces had retaken 10 settlements in Kursk, or about 63 sq kilometers of land. Russian forces have captured at least 10 Ukrainian soldiers, according to drone footage shared on social media. A senior Ukrainian military intelligence official described the Russian gains in Kursk as purely tactical and said the push could not be described as a large-scale attack. (FT, 09.13.24)
• On Sept. 12, it was reported that a Russian strike on Red Cross vehicles in eastern Ukraine killed three people. "Today, the occupier attacked the vehicles of the International Committee of the Red Cross humanitarian mission in Donetsk region," Zelenskyy said. "I condemn attacks on Red Cross personnel in the strongest terms," ICRC President Mirjana Spoljaric said in a statement. "It's unconscionable that shelling would hit an aid distribution site," she added. (MT/AFP, 09.12.24)
• Russian artillery is outfiring Ukraine by at least three to one, and Russia is also conscripting or recruiting 400,000 additional soldiers this year, according to U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey. (UK.gov, 09.10.24)
  • U.S. Gen. Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s supreme allied commander of Europe, has estimated earlier this year that Ukraine has some 900,000 to a million troops available. (RM, 09.13.24)
• Total Russian casualties in Ukraine have reached an estimated 610,000 killed and wounded, according to the latest Western estimates. That is a large jump from the previous high-end estimate of 500,000 Russians killed and wounded since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, which was released by Britain’s Ministry of Defense in early June. (FT, 09.13.24)
• Daily Russian casualties have doubled from this time last year, with Russia averaging more than 1,100 a day killed or wounded in July and August alone, according to U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey. (UK.gov, 09.10.24)
• Russian forces used ammunition equipped with dangerous chemicals and chemical agents 447 times in August 2024 and 4,035 times between Feb.15, 2023, and Aug. 24, 2024, according to Ukraine's Support Forces Command (ISW, 09.09.24)
• A freight train derailed overnight in southwestern Russia’s Belgorod region near the border with Ukraine, law enforcement authorities said early Sept. 11, claiming it was caused by an “act of terrorism.” (MT/AFP, 09.11.24)
• The Ukrainian offensive over the border caught Moscow's intelligence agencies by surprise, experts say. Other agencies besides the FSB, including the military intelligence service and the National Guard, as well as the army, have intelligence-gathering resources that could have detected the Ukrainian buildup. Part of the problem, experts say, is a lack of coordination within the military and intelligence operations that is likely to have impeded any Russian response. It is a problem that has bedeviled the Russian war effort from the first days of the invasion, but one that Putin appears reluctant to address. (NYT, 09.06.24)

Military aid to Ukraine:

• The U.S., U.K. and France have continued to debate this week whether to permit Ukraine use some of the Western-supplied long-range missiles for long-range strikes at targets inside Russia, such as U.K.-built Storm Shadows and their French-made equivalent, Scalp, that relies on U.S. navigation.³ The issue of issuing such a permit, which has long been debated in the administration, was coming to a head on Sept, 13 as Britain’s new prime minister, Keir Starmer, visited the White House, NYT reported on Sept. 12.  On Sept. 13, however, Sky News reported, citing a senior official in the U.S. presidential administration, that there wouldn't be a decision on that day whether to allow use of long-range missiles supplied by the West for Ukraine to conduct strikes inside Russia. In addition, Reuters also reported on Sept. 13 that no change to US policy on long-range missiles to Ukraine expected on that day, citing thew White House. The Biden administration has been split over allowing Ukraine to use the U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System for the same purpose, with the State Department open to Kyiv’s request, while the Pentagon and the intelligence agencies are skeptical. (NYT, 09.12.24 FT, 09.10.24, RM, 09.13.24, Reuters, 09.13.24)
  • U.S. President Joe Biden said on Sept. 11 he was “working” on Kyiv’s request to lift restrictions on using the U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System to target military sites far inside Russia that are used to launch strikes against Ukraine. Biden is understood to have been more reluctant than Blinken, who has become more aligned with Britain on the use of long-range missiles on Russian targets. Biden appears on the verge of clearing the way for Ukraine to launch long-range Western weapons deep inside Russian territory, as long as it doesn't use arms provided by the United States, European officials say. (NYT, 09.13.24. FT, 09.13.24, FT, 09.12.24, The Guardian, 09.11.24, FT, 09.12.24, Times, 09.13.24)
    • The fear in the White House is that hardliners in the Kremlin could insist this retaliation takes the form of attacking transit points for missiles on their way to Ukraine, such as an airbase in Poland. If that were to happen, NATO’s Article 5 could be invoked, meaning the alliance would be at war with Russia. (BBC, 09.11.24)
  • U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris hasn't been convinced that helping Ukraine strike deep inside Russia would be a good trade-off for the United States, according to David Ignatius. (WP, 09.13.24.)
  • Blinken and U.K. foreign secretary David Lammy held talks in Kyiv with Ukrainian officials on Sept. 11 about possibly lifting restrictions on Ukraine using Western-made weapons to conduct attacks deep inside Russia. On Sept. 11, Blinken gave his strongest hint yet that the White House is about to lift its restrictions on Ukraine using long-range weapons supplied by the West on key military targets inside. Blinken said the U.S. had “from day one” been willing to adapt its policy as the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine changed. “We will continue to do this,” he emphasized. Blinken said he and Lammy would report back to their “bosses” – Joe Biden and Keir Starmer – after their talks on Sept. 11 with Zelenskyy. (FT, 09.12.24, The Guardian, 09.11.24, FT, 09.12.24)
    • It was reported prior to the Sept. 11 meeting of Blinken and Lammy with Zelenskyy that the U.S. had wanted to push Zelenskyy to detail his strategy for striking deeper into Russian territory before agreeing to lift restrictions on the use of longer-range weapons., the officials said. (Bloomberg, 09.11.24) 
  • Matthew Savill, director of military science at RUSI think tank, believes lifting restrictions would pose a dilemma for Russia as to where to position those precious air defenses. Ultimately though, says Savill, Storm Shadow is unlikely to turn the tide. (BBC, 09.11.24) If Savill’s estimate is accurate, then as was the case with prior steps in the ladder of arming Ukraine, use of Storm Shadows and Scalps would be a morale booster for Zelenskyy and generate some benefit on the battlefields, but won’t be a game changer. For a good explainer on this issue, including more details of Savill’s views, see Frank Gardner’s “What are Storm Shadow missiles and why are they crucial for Ukraine?”.
  • Lord Kim Darroch, Britain’s former national security adviser, has warned that allowing long-range Storm Shadow missiles to be fired by Ukraine into Russia risks a major escalation of the conflict. Darroch said western allies should think carefully about Vladimir Putin’s warnings of a war between Moscow and NATO. “We really don’t want to escalate this,” he told the Financial Times. (FT, 09.13.24)During his visit to the U.S. to attend the UNGA, Zelenskyy plans to meet Biden and press him on his plea to lift restrictions on weapons used for deeper strikes within Russia territory. A decision on deep strikes is unlikely to come before the U.N. meeting in New York near the end of the month, although Biden may weigh in on whether a policy shift is coming. (Bloomberg, 09.11.24, Bloomberg, 09.11.24)
  • On Sept. 12, Putin warned against the move. He said Ukraine’s army would need help with mission programing from NATO specialists to launch long-range strikes. That would mean “NATO countries — the United States, and European countries — are at war with Russia,” Putin said. As the “very essence of the conflict” shifts, Russia will “make appropriate decisions” based on new threats, he said. (Bloomberg, 09.12.24)
    • Keir Starmer, responding to Putin’s comments on his way to meet Biden in Washington on Sept. 13, told reporters that “we don’t seek any conflict with Russia, that’s not our intention in the slightest. But they started this conflict, and Ukraine’s got a right to self-defense.” Asked about the prospect of providing the Storm Shadow missiles, Starmer declined to talk about “particular capabilities.” He said many matters will be discussed with Biden “but this is not a series of individual decisions that we want to arrive at tomorrow” but rather than decisions made “are within the strategic context.” (Bloomberg, 09.12.24)
    • On Sept. 13, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also recommended not getting too worried over the Russian leader's remarks. (WP, 09.13.24)
    • On Sept. 13, speaking after the responses from Starmer and Tusk, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov sought to reinforce the gravity of Putin's warning in comments to journalists during a regular conference call. "The statement that Putin made yesterday is very important," he said. "It is extremely clear, unambiguous and does not allow for any double readings. We have no doubt that this statement has reached its addressees." Speaking earlier this week, Peskov said that Russia was preparing “appropriate countermeasures” should the West extend Ukraine’s authority. Peskov also said Russia believes Washington has already given Ukraine approval to strike targets inside Russia using U.S.-supplied long-range rockets. (NYT, 09.12.24, MT/AFP, 09.11.24, WP, 09.13.24)
  • "If the decision to lift the restrictions is actually made or will be made, this will mean that from that moment on NATO countries will begin a direct war with Russia. NATO will become a direct party to military action against a nuclear power. I think there is no need to explain what consequences this could have," Russia’s U.N. envoy Vasily Nebenzia said. (Kommersant, 09.14.24)
  • Russian deputy foreign minister Sergey Ryabkov said Russia would destroy any new ATACMS deliveries. (The Guardian, 09.11.24)
• Nearly $6 billion in U.S. funding for aid to Ukraine will expire at the end of the month unless Congress acts to extend the Pentagon’s authority to send weapons from its stockpile to Kyiv, according to U.S. officials. U.S. officials said the Biden administration has asked Congress to include the funding authority in any continuing resolution lawmakers may manage to pass before the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30 in order to fund the federal government and prevent a shutdown. Officials said they hope to have the authority extended for another year. (AP, 09.12.24)
• In Kyiv, Blinken announced a $700 million package of U.S. aid to help repair energy infrastructure after repeated attacks by Russia. U.K. foreign secretary David Lammy announced £600 million of U.K. aid, including £242 million for humanitarian, energy and other needs. (FT, 09.12.24)
• The Pentagon has invested $5.3 billion of congressionally appropriated money since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine to boost U.S.-produced munitions for the besieged nation and replenish stockpiles, mostly for the Army, according to new figures released Sept. 6. (Bloomberg, 09.07.24)
• The U.K. has trained more than 45,000 Ukrainian recruits since the start of Russia’s illegal full-scale invasion, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported. (Korrespondent.net, 09.13.24)
• Much of the military aid the U.K. has given to Ukraine has consisted of old equipment, such as army boots that otherwise would have had to be thrown away, according to a spending watchdog. Military gear that was “often due to be scrapped or replaced” was prioritized by the Ministry of Defense because it was believed to have “immediate military value” to Ukraine — but sending it to Kyiv also “reduced waste or costs relating to disposal,” the National Audit Office said Sept. 11. The NAO also raised concerns that the basic training the U.K. has given to more than 42,000 Ukrainian recruits did not always equip them fully for the frontline. (FT, 09.10.24)
• The Netherlands has delivered a radar for the Patriot surface-to-air missile system to Ukraine, and the country will soon send three launchers, according to Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans. (RBC.ua, 09.13.24)
• German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Sept. 7 accused Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats of watering down support for Ukraine just two weeks before a key state election. Baerbock, a member of the Greens and a staunch supporter of Ukraine in its war against Russia, was speaking at a party meeting in the eastern city of Potsdam, the capital of Brandenburg. (RFE/RL, 09.07.24)
• There is a growing realization among Ukraine's leaders of the need to forge close ties with the country's evangelical Christians, who number between 800,000 and 1 million. The government is betting that its own evangelicals can be a bridge to their counterparts in the United States, who are influential in the Republican Party and could assist in their lobbying efforts for more aid. (WP, 09.12.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Russia has expelled six U.K. diplomats over spying claims, the FSB said on Sept. 13, ahead of talks between Starmer and Biden on the war in Ukraine. Britain said the claims were “completely baseless” and that Russia had stripped the six British officials of their accreditation in early August as part of an escalating tit-for-tat diplomatic dispute. The British officials expelled by Moscow have already been replaced. (FT, 09.13.24)
• Washington has requested cast-iron guarantees that the Russian assets, most of which are held in the EU, would remain blocked until Russia pays reparations, in order to bypass congressional approval for its slice of the loan. Currently, EU sanctions are rolled over every six months. To appease the U.S., the European Commission will this morning present EU ambassadors with options to extend the sanctions period to 36 months, or extend them indefinitely, according to three EU officials. Any decision would require all 27 member states to agree. But the Hungarian ambassador to the EU has already signaled that extending sanctions would be a question for leaders—which means additional leverage for the Hungarian premier. (FT, 09.13.24)
• A giant unregulated currency is undermining America's fight against arms dealers, sanctions busters and scammers. Almost as much money flowed through its network last year as through Visa cards. Its name: tether. The cryptocurrency has grown into an important cog in the global financial system, with as much as $190 billion changing hands daily. Russian oligarchs and weapons dealers shuttle tether abroad to buy property and pay suppliers for sanctioned goods. (WSJ, 09.10.24)
• The exodus of Western companies sparked by the Russian invasion and subsequent sanctions has completely changed Russia’s corporate landscape. Of the 50 biggest foreign companies in Russia, 11 are Chinese, Forbes Russia calculated. Automaker Chery is top of the list after its revenue in Russia quadrupled in 2023 to more than 590 billion rubles ($6.63 billion) on sales of some 220,000 automobiles on the Russian market. Two years ago there was only one Chinese company in the same ranking: Huawei. The United States has seven entries, then comes Germany (five), Belarus, Turkey and Switzerland (four each), France (three), Britain and Italy (two each). In previous years, the top spot was held by Western firms: Auchan / Elo (2015-2019), Renault (2020), Leroy Merlin / Adeo (2023), Philip Morris International (2021) and Volkswagen Group (2022). Leroy Merlin has dropped off the list altogether after Adeo, the parent company of the DIY store, sold its Russian assets to local management. (BELL, 09.13.24)
• Announcing new sanctions against RT’s parent companies, Rossiya Segodnya and TV-Novosti, that aim to cripple funding for RT and its operations, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said these entities “are no longer merely fire hoses of Russian propaganda and disinformation. They are engaged in covert influence activities aimed at undermining American elections and democracies, functioning like a de facto arm of Russia’s intelligence apparatus.”. (WP, 09.13.24)
• Russia’s National Settlement Depository lost a bid to overturn European Union sanctions over its alleged role in helping fund Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The Moscow-based institution was hit by EU sanctions in 2022. (Bloomberg, 09.11.24)
• A former salesman for a manufacturer of laser welding machines was arrested in the U.S. on Sept. 9 on charges that he conspired to evade U.S. export-control laws in order to sell his company's products to a division of the Russian state nuclear company Rosatom. Sam Bhambhani was charged in an indictment with working with a Russian citizen who resold laser equipment to the Russian government. (RFE/RL, 09.09.24)
• The website builder and operator Wix announced Sept. 10 that it will no longer offer services to residents of Russia, a move that comes after the U.S. introduced new sanctions against Moscow over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 09.10.24)
• The European Union on Sept. 13 removed Violetta Prigozhina, the 85-year-old mother of the late leader of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, along with several other Russians from its sanctions list. (RFE/RL, 09.13.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• Zelenskyy has revealed some details of his “victory plan,” which he plans to present to the UNGA next week during the 20th annual meeting of the Yalta European Strategy. In particular, it has become known that it will not include many points. "There are not many points. And each point will depend on Biden's decision. That is why I believe that this will help. I cannot give a 100 percent guarantee that this will stop, but it will make Ukraine stronger. And this will push Putin to think about how to end the war," he said. Earlier Zelenskyy has called for a new peace summit in November, one open to participation by Russia. (RBC.ua, 09.13.24, Times, 09.13.24, NYT, 09.13.24)
  • Zelenskyy’s new peace proposal – which he plans to present to Bien at UNGA -- is the latest sign that he is adapting his public posture, which until now has been focused on winning back all of Ukraine’s territory before any peace talks start. Over the summer, Ukraine considered talks with Russia on limiting attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure, Ukrainian, Russian and Western officials have said. (WSJ, 09.11.24)
  • Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on Sept. 10 said that he hoped the next peace summit could be organized by the end of the year and attract at least 150 countries. (RFE/RL, 09.10.24)
  • American and European officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy, have made clear over the last week that they are operating on the idea that Ukraine must consolidate and expand its gains on the battlefield in order to prod Putin toward the negotiating table — and to have meaningful leverage if talks start. “I have seen no sign, personally, that Russia is presently willing to engage in meaningful negotiations that would result in an outcome that is acceptable to Ukraine,” said a senior Biden administration official. (WSJ, 09.12.24, NYT, 09.13.24)
  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for a renewed effort to bring peace to Ukraine, adding that he and Zelenskyy had both agreed in recent talks on the need for a new peace conference that would include Russia. "I believe that now is the time to discuss how to arrive at peace from this state of war, indeed at a faster pace," Scholz said. The second peace conference planned by the Ukrainian authorities should be held with the participation of Russia, Scholz said. (RFE/RL, 09.08.24, Meduza, 09.08.24)
• Republican vice-presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance recently laid out a potential Trump administration's approach to end Russia's war in Ukraine, saying former president Donald Trump's handling of the conflict could include establishing a "demilitarized zone" in Ukrainian territory now occupied by Russia. "I think what this looks like is Trump sits down, he says to the Russians, the Ukrainians, the Europeans: You guys need to figure out -- What does a peaceful settlement look like? And what it probably looks like is the current line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine, that becomes like a demilitarized zone," Vance said. The proposed demilitarized zone, Vance added, would be "heavily fortified so the Russians don't invade again." As part of the peace plan, Vance said, Ukraine would maintain its independence in exchange for a guarantee of neutrality — meaning Ukraine wouldn't join NATO or other "allied institutions." (WP, 09.12.24)
• The People's Republic of China (PRC) continues to promote its alternative peace plan for the war in Ukraine. PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu in St. Petersburg on Sept. 11 and reiterated that the PRC will continue to promote its own vision to end Russia's war in Ukraine and will aim to convince other countries to support the PRC's peace plan. Shoigu reiterated Russia's support for the joint PRC-Brazilian peace plan during the meeting. (ISW, 09.11.24)
  • Shoigu ruled out the possibility of negotiations with Ukraine before the Ukrainian Armed Forces leave Kursk. In a TV interview, Shoigu discussed the invasion of the Ukrainian military into the Kursk region. "Until we throw them out of our territory, we, naturally, will not talk about any negotiations with them," the Secretary of the Security Council said. (Media Zone, 09.10.24)
  • Zelenskyy criticized the peace plan between China and Brazil to end the war, calling it "destructive" and agreed upon in advance with the Kremlin. He said that the plan is only a "political statement" and does not take into account the real situation. Zelenskyy emphasized that he offered Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to discuss this issue together, but expressed bewilderment why Brazil decided to take a "middle" position and support Russia. (RBC.ua, 09.12.24)
    • Responding to this criticism, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said. “Let me reiterate that China and Brazil put forward the six common understandings to address one urgent priority, which is to deescalate the situation. ... On the Ukraine crisis, including on the six common understandings, China has maintained close communication with Ukraine. China will continue promoting talks for peace and playing a constructive role for the political settlement of the crisis.” (Chinese Foreign Ministry, 09.13.24)
• India should play a more active role in ending Russia’s war in Ukraine if it wants to win a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council, Ukraine’s ambassador in New Delhi said. (Bloomberg, 09.11.24)
• Prime Minister Viktor Orban said more surprise diplomatic moves were likely following a controversial visit to Moscow as part of a self-described “peace mission” at the start of Hungary’s European Union presidency. “I have more ‘peace mission’ moves in my pocket,” Orban said. (Bloomberg, 09.12.24)
• One recent survey found that 18% of veterans and active-duty members of the Ukrainian military believed Ukraine should seek to end the war through negotiations, the lowest of any demographic group in the study. Fifteen percent of soldiers and veterans said they would join an armed protest if Kyiv signed a peace treaty that they didn't agree with. (WSJ, 09.10.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Biden's administration has sent Congress a classified report on its strategy for the war in Ukraine, three sources said Sept. 9, months after a June deadline mandated in a multibillion-dollar spending bill lawmakers passed in April. A congressional aide said the long-awaited report had reached lawmakers on Sept. 9 and they had not yet had a chance to review it. (Reuters, 09.09.24)
  • Biden’s top aides are under no illusions that Ukraine can win the war by Jan. 20, when a new president will occupy the White House, and have tempered expectations for what they think Kyiv can achieve in the next four months. They aren’t pushing Ukraine to conduct peace talks or trying to dictate battlefield plans, U.S. officials said. The goal, said one senior administration official, is to “improve Ukraine’s strategic position to the greatest extent possible between now and the end of the term.” That became more challenging on Sept. 12, when Russia said it had launched a massive counterattack in the Kursk region. The Biden administration wants Kyiv to focus on halting the Russian advance in the east along current battle lines, U.S. officials say. (WSJ, 09.12.24)
• Asked if Russian intelligence might be conducting sabotage operations against the U.S. by abetting illegal migration across the Mexico border, CIA’s William Burns said: “It’s something we are very sharply focused on. Part of that is a function of so many Russian agents [being] kicked out of Europe. So they are looking for somewhere to go instead.” (FT, 09.07.24)
  • Burns and Richard Moore of MI6 wrote: “We continue to work together to disrupt the reckless campaign of sabotage across Europe being waged by Russian intelligence, and its cynical use of technology to spread lies and disinformation designed to drive wedges between us.” (FT, 09.06.24.)
  • Recent Russian sabotage operations across Europe were “reckless,” Moore said, describing Russian intelligence as “having gone a bit feral.” But “in the U.K. that is not new,” he added, referring to the attempted assassination of Russian double agent Sergei Skripal in Salisbury in 2018. (FT, 09.07.24)
• Latvia and Romania each reported incidents involving Russian drones during another UAV barrage fired at Ukraine over the weekend. A Russian military drone crashed in eastern Latvia on Sept. 7, the country’s President Edgars Rinkevics said. The drone crossed into Latvian airspace from neighboring Belarus before crashing in the Rezekne municipality, the Latvian defense ministry said on its website. Earlier on Sunday, Romania’s foreign ministry issued a statement urging Russia to abide by international law after a drone violated its air space the previous night. (Bloomberg, 09.08.24)
• On Sept. 13, it was revealed that the Kremlin revoked the accreditation of six British diplomats, accusing them of espionage, the Interfax news agency cited Russia’s FSB state security service as saying. The FSB has not named any of the six diplomats but stated their activities threatened Russia’s security. (Times, 09.13.24)
• A far-right paramilitary group fighting on the side of Moscow in the Ukraine war claimed Sept. 9 that some of its members had begun volunteering to help the FSB to “reinforce” Russia’s border with Finland. (MT/AFP, 09.10.24)
• NATO boss Jens Stoltenberg will be the new chairman of the Munich Security Conference after retiring from the alliance on Oct. 1. (Politico, 09.12.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• The U.S. has accused China of providing Russia with direct support for its “war machine” for the first time. U.S. deputy secretary of state (and recent Belfer Center senior fellow) Kurt Campbell told reporters in Brussels that China was supplying Moscow with items that were directly helping the Russian military as it prosecutes its war of aggression in Ukraine. “These are not dual-use capabilities,” Campbell said. “These are component pieces of a very substantial effort on the part of China to help sustain, build and diversify various elements of the Russian war machine.” Campbell said the Chinese support for Russia was being repaid by Moscow helping Beijing develop submarine, aeronautic and missile technologies. The collaboration could have a “very significant impact on Chinese capabilities and deployments in the western Pacific,” he added. The cooperation was “not a tactical alliance, this is a fundamental alignment,” he said. (FT, 09.10.24)
• Russia started producing a new long-range attack drone called the Garpiya-A1 last year using Chinese engines and parts, which it has deployed in the war in Ukraine, according to two sources from a European intelligence agency and documents seen by Reuters. A subsidiary of Russian state-owned weapons maker Almaz-Antey, produced more than 2,500 Garpiyas from July 2023 to July 2024. (Reuters, 09.13.24)
• Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend the BRICS summit in Russia. The summit of emerging economies will be held from Oct. 22 to 24 in the Tatarstan capital of Kazan. "President Xi is very happy to accept your invitation, and arrive in Kazan as scheduled," China’s foreign minister Wang Yi told Putin at a meeting in Saint Petersburg. "The two heads of state will have further strategic discussions." Wang also heralded the "strong mutual trust and deep friendship" between Putin and Xi. (MT/AFP, 09.12.24)
• Russia and China launched joint naval exercises in the Sea of Japan, Russia’s military announced Sept. 10. The Russian Defense Ministry said its Pacific Fleet and the People’s Liberation Army Navy will coordinate on “practical actions in defending maritime communications and areas of maritime economic activity” in the region. It added that Russian warships met four Chinese warships and one supply vessel off the coast of Far East Russia’s Primorye region. The sides “discussed the nearest action plan, formed a joint detachment of ships and began carrying out the assigned tasks.” A video accompanying the announcement showed a Russian navy officer greeting and issuing directions to his Chinese counterpart. (MT/AFP, 09.10.24)
• Chinese and Russian defence officials took swipes at the West at a military diplomacy forum in Beijing on Friday, with China courting the Global South and Russia saying the United States was shifting military conflicts to the Asia-Pacific. Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun told the annual Xiangshan Forum that Beijing would enhance military ties with its neighbours and with developing countries in particular. Russian deputy defence minister Alexander Fomin said during the forum that the U.S. was trying to contain China and Russia while preparing for war in Asia by creating new security blocs. "Russia and China support the creation of a just, multipolar world order based on equality and mutual respect," he said. The U.S. is represented by Michael Chase, deputy assistant secretary of defence for China, Taiwan and Mongolia. (Reuters, 09.13.24)

Missile defense:

• Estonia’s top defense official called on NATO to improve air defense for member states bordering Russia amid a critical shortage of long-range anti-missile capabilities across the alliance. “Clearly the border nations are in the most critical situation,” Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told Bloomberg in an interview on Sept. 10. “If the border nations are defended then definitely Berlin and Paris are also significantly more secure.” (Bloomberg, 09.12.24)

Nuclear arms:

• William Burns and Richard Moore said it would be wrong to take Putin’s threats of nuclear escalation lightly but that the West should not be unnecessarily intimidated. “There was a moment in the fall of 2022 when I think there was a genuine risk of the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons,” Burns said. “I have never thought, however, and this is the view of my agency, that we should be unnecessarily intimidated by that. Putin’s a bully. He’s going to continue to saber-rattle,” Burns added. (FT, 09.07.24, NBC, 09.07.24)
• FAS’ Hans Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns and Mackenzie Knight estimate that India has produced enough weapons-grade plutonium for up to 210 nuclear warheads but has likely assembled closer to 172. (FAS, 09.06.24)

Counterterrorism:

• With a population of 10 million, the vast majority of whom are Muslim, Tajikistan has many challenges that counterterrorism experts say make it an incubator for extremism: poverty, poor education, high unemployment and grievances against an autocratic government that severely restricts the practice of religion. The country came under global scrutiny after four Tajik men were charged as the assailants in the worst terrorist attack in Russia in two decades, which killed 145 people and injured more than 500 at the Moscow concert hall. (NYT, 09.08.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI:

• William Burns and Richard Moore wrote in FT: “This [Russia-Ukraine] conflict has demonstrated that technology, deployed alongside extraordinary bravery and traditional weaponry, can alter the course of war. Ukraine has been the first war of its kind to combine open-source software with cutting-edge battlefield technology, harnessing commercial and military satellite imagery, drone technology, high and low sophistication cyber warfare, social media, open-source intelligence, uncrewed aerial and seaborne vehicles and information operations — as well as human and signals intelligence — at such incredible pace and scale. ...We are now using AI, including generative AI, to enable and improve intelligence activities — from summarization to ideation to helping identify key information in a sea of data. We are training AI to help protect and ‘red team’ our own operations to ensure we can still stay secret when we need to,” the two wrote. (FT, 09.06.24, NYT, 09.07.24)
• The Russian military intelligence unit thought to be behind some of the country’s boldest spy operations of the last decade allegedly also has an active cyber division. The GRU’s Unit 29155 was observed scanning web domains more than 14,000 times across 26 NATO members and additional European Union countries, apparently on the hunt for new victims, according to a cybersecurity advisory released recently by the FBI and partner agencies in nine countries. (Bloomberg, 09.10.24)
  • German authorities warned Sept. 9 that GRU’s unit 29155 “carried out cyberattacks and other reconnaissance activities against targets in NATO and EU countries.” According to German authorities, unit 29155 was behind January 2022 cyberattacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine ahead of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February of that same year. (MT/AFP, 09.09.24)
• Russian hacker groups briefly disrupted Taiwanese financial platforms including the stock exchange and lender Mega Financial Holding Co.’s website, exposing the vulnerability of the island to foreign cyberattacks. (Bloomberg, 09.12.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Greece has warned that Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure contributed to electricity prices more than doubling this summer in south-east Europe, underlining the vulnerabilities of EU energy markets. In a letter to the European Commission seen by the Financial Times, Mitsotakis said electricity prices had risen in August from €60 to €130 per megawatt hour. (FT, 09.13.24)
• Plunging oil prices helped drive Russia's revenues from crude sales to the lowest since February, highlighting the challenges Moscow faces from a weakening global market. The price slump sent Russia’s flagship Urals crude back down toward the $60-a-barrel threshold that the Group of Seven sought to impose on the Kremlin as punishment for the Ukraine invasion. (Bloomberg, 09.10.24)
• The British government on Sept. 11 imposed new sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet" of tankers, which Moscow uses to export oil in circumvention of a Western embargo imposed after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 09.11.24)
• Tankers hauling Russian crude through Denmark’s perilous shipping straits are increasingly rejecting the services of pilots when they do so, raising the chances of an oil spill off the country’s coast. In the three months through July, 20% of all so-called shadow-fleet tankers moving Russian oil through the Danish straits declined the help of the experts who know the local waters. That proportion has increased from 4% a year earlier. (Bloomberg, 09.10.24)
• Hungary's government on Sept. 10 welcomed a deal reached by energy company MOL aimed at guaranteeing the supply of Russian oil through Ukraine after Kyiv restricted transit. (RFE/RL, 09.10.24)
• A sanctioned Russian liquefied natural gas export facility is sending a shipment to Asia for the first time, as Moscow continues a search for customers willing to take the fuel and circumvent U.S. restrictions. Everest Energy picked up a shipment from the Arctic LNG 2 plant in northeastern Russia over the weekend, and is currently on its way to Asia via the northern sea route, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 09.09.24)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• In their first and possibly last debate on Sept. 10, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris faced off in what has shaped up to be one of the most contentious U.S. presidential elections in recent memory. (MT, 09.11.24)
  • Harris criticized Trump over his previous comments on Russia and Putin. She argued that Trump had enabled the Kremlin leader during his time in the Oval Office, recalling Trump’s praise of Putin’s early moves in Ukraine: “It is well known that he said of Putin, ‘He can do whatever the hell he wants and go into Ukraine.’ When Russia went into Ukraine, he called it ‘brilliant.’ These dictators and autocrats are rooting for you again because they know they can manipulate you with flattery and favors,” Harris said [to Trump]. “I believe the reason Donald Trump says this war would be over within 24 hours is because he would just give it up. And that’s not who we are as Americans,” she said. (MT, 09.11.24)
  • Harris stressed the United States’ commitment to Ukraine under the Biden administration, crediting American military support as a key reason Ukraine continues to stand as a sovereign nation. “If Donald Trump were president, Putin would be sitting in Kyiv right now with his eyes on the rest of Europe, starting with Poland,” she said. (MT, 09.11.24)
  • Trump slammed President Joe Biden’s handling of the war in Ukraine and claimed that, had he still been in office, Russia would never have launched its full-scale invasion. He said that he has a “good relationship” with both Putin and Zelenskyy, which would be central to his ability to resolve the conflict swiftly. “They respect your president… They respect me,” he said. “I’ll get the war with Ukraine and Russia ended—if I’m president-elect—I will get it done before even becoming president,” Trump said. He added that he believed peace could only be achieved through direct negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow. “I’ll speak to one, I’ll speak to the other, and I’ll get them together,” he said. “Biden had no idea how to talk to him [Putin],” Trump added. “It’s only getting worse and it could lead to World War III… we’re playing with World War III.” (MT, 09.11.24)
  • Trump questioned U.S. financial commitment to supporting Ukraine’s military in the war, arguing that European allies were contributing far less than Washington. “We’re in for 250 billion [dollars] or more because they [the Biden administration] don’t ask Europe… Either you pay up, or we’re not going to protect you anymore.” (MT, 09.11.24)
  • When asked whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war, Trump appeared to sidestep the question, instead emphasizing the need to end the conflict and save lives. “I want the war to stop. I want to save lives… people being killed by the millions. It’s millions. It’s so much worse than the numbers you are getting which are fake numbers… I think it’s the U.S.’s best interest to get this war finished. Just get it done. Negotiate a deal. Because we have to stop all of these human lives from being destroyed,” he said. Trump’s claim that “millions” have died in the Ukraine war is not supported by official estimates. (MT, 09.11.24)
  • Trump claimed that Europe has spent “$150 billion less” supporting Ukraine, but that is not true. According to the Kiel Institute for World Economy’s Ukraine aid tracker, the U.S. has committed more than $110 billion to Ukraine since the war began, while Europe as a whole has committed more than $200 billion. (FT, 09.10.24)
    • One of the more contentious moments came when Trump falsely claimed Harris had met with Putin just before the full-scale invasion to broker peace between Moscow and Kyiv. “They sent her to negotiate with Zelenskyy and Putin, and three days later, the war started,” he said. Harris dismissed Trump’s accusation. In fact, while the vice president did meet with Zelenskyy at the Munich Security Conference shortly before the Kremlin ordered troops across the Ukrainian border, there was no meeting between Harris and Putin. “I met with Zelenskyy a few days before Russia invaded, tried through force to change territorial boundaries,” Harris said. “I shared with him American intelligence so that he could defend himself.” (MT, 09.11.24)
• Just hours before the debate, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov downplayed any Russian interest in the event, saying “It’s none of our business, it’s the business of American voters.” Those remarks came a week after Washington accused the Kremlin-funded RT news network of election interference, sanctioning 10 individuals and two entities connected to the outlet. (MT, 09.11.24)
• Russia, Iran and China are “ramping up” attempts to stoke divisions within the U.S. ahead of November’s presidential election, according to a top Department of Justice official. The trio is seeking to “warp the views” of U.S. voters, Matthew Olsen, assistant attorney general for national security, said. (Bloomberg, 09.12.24)
• The Russian government's covert efforts to sway the 2024 presidential election are more advanced than in recent years, and the most active foreign threat this political season, U.S. intelligence officials said last Friday. Russia's activities "are more sophisticated than in prior election cycles," said a senior official with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence Officials noted that they have seen no foreign efforts to directly interfere in the 2024 election by, for instance, hacking into voting machines. (WP, 09.07.24)
• Four activists for black rights have been convicted of federal charges of conspiring to act as unregistered Russian agents, the Justice Department said. Omali Yeshitela, 82, Penny Hess, 78, Jesse Nevel, 34, and Augustus Romain, 38, face maximum sentences of five years in prison, the department said in a statement. According to the case materials presented in court, the defendants "acted on behalf of the Russian government on U.S. territory" from at least May 2015 to July 2022 and collaborated with Russian pro-government activist Alexander Ionov. (BBC, 09.13.24, Meduza, 09.13.24)
• In early 2022, a young couple from Canada, Lauren Chen and Liam Donovan, registered a new company in Tennessee that went on to create a social media outlet called Tenet Media. By November 2023, they had assembled a lineup of major conservative social media stars, including Benny Johnson, Tim Pool and Dave Rubin, to post original content on Tenet's platform. It was all, federal prosecutors now say, a covert Russian influence operation. (NYT, 09.07.24)
• Margarita Simonyan of RT says she takes her orders directly from the Kremlin in what she describes as a covert "guerrilla" information operation against the United States. Speaking on state television on Sunday night, she taunted Washington over its efforts to shut down RT's campaign and contradicted previous Kremlin denials of foreign influence operations. (WP, 09.12.24)
• The Kremlin said Sept. 9 that it would not grant an interview with Putin to Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who was released by Russia this summer in a prisoner swap. (MT/AFP, 09.09.24)
• Bashkir activist Zagir Mukhamedyarov has fled Russia and entered the United States via Mexico fearing arrest. (RFE/RL, 09.11.24)
• A Soyuz spacecraft carrying two Russians and an American blasted off on Sept. 11 for an express trip to the International Space Station. The mission commander is Aleksei Ovchinin, with Russian compatriot Ivan Vagner and American Donald Pettit in the crew. The rocket blasted off without obvious problems, and the Soyuz entered orbit eight minutes after liftoff. (RFE/RL, 09.11.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The government’s latest predictions for Russia’s economy through the rest of Putin’s current term suggest it will be in good shape by the next election. According to base-case macroeconomic forecasts through 2030 prepared by the Economy Ministry, Russia expects robust annual growth of at least 3% in the last three years of Putin’s presidency. Inflation will be low and stable at the central bank’s target level, the estimates show, alongside sustained positive trends in investment, consumer activity and household incomes. That outlook’s at odds with those of numerous analysts, who haven’t seen the government’s internal calculations. (Bloomberg, 09.12.24)
• Large and easily accessible mineral deposits in Russia are nearly depleted, the head of Russia’s Natural Resources Ministry said Sept. 11. “Geologists are forced to move further and further into the Arctic and difficult-to-reach regions of the Far East and Siberia,” Natural Resources Minister Alexander Kozlov said during a meeting with President Vladimir Putin. “Only 35% of the Far East and 45% of Siberian territories have been explored by geologists,” Kozlov said. (MT/AFP, 09.12.24)
• The Russian central bank raised its key interest rate by 1 percentage point to 19% on Sept. 13, citing high inflation and strong domestic demand. This is close to the all-time high of 20% that was reached immediately after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (FT, 09.13.24)
• The Bank of Russia has proposed launching widespread transactions in the digital ruble with free access to the new payment method for the country’s citizens. Russia’s biggest banks will have to provide their clients with the ability to conduct digital ruble operations by July 1, 2025, including opening accounts and allowing transfers of money, the central bank said. (Bloomberg, 09.12.24)
• William Burns of CIA and Richard Moore of MI6 said there was no sign that Putin’s grip on power had lessened. But it would be wrong to “confuse a tight grip on power with a stable grip,” Moore said, especially as the Kursk incursion had “brought the war home to ordinary Russians.” Ukraine's seizure of territory in Kursk "did raise questions on the part of Russian elites—where is this all headed?" Burns said at a conference in London, alluding to previously undisclosed intelligence on reactions in the Russian capital. Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has dented Vladimir Putin’s war narrative and triggered “questions” among the Russian elite about the point of the war, the two spy chiefs wrote in an op-ed for FT. (FT, 09.07.24, WP, 09.07.24)
• Russia’s 2024 regional and municipal elections ended in few surprises, with the ruling, pro-Kremlin United Russia party solidifying its control in over 4,000 races nationwide, including in occupied Ukrainian territories. All incumbent governors and regional heads won re-election with an average of about 80%. Kurgan region Governor Vadim Shumkov won the highest margin with a record 85.17%. None of them, however, received a higher margin than President Vladimir Putin won in the March presidential election—87.27%. (MT/AFP, 09.09.24)
  • Over 300 Russian soldiers who fought in Moscow’s war on Ukraine and ran as candidates from the ruling United Russia party have secured political office in Russia’s 2024 regional and local elections, state media reported Sept. 9. (MT/AFP, 09.09.24)
• Russia’s communications watchdog Roskomnadzor plans to spend 59 billion rubles ($644 million) over the next five years to upgrade its internet traffic-filtering capabilities, the Russian edition of Forbes reported. (Bloomberg, 09.10.24)
• In a move that human rights advocates warn carries potential risks for civil rights [violations], Russia has begun expanding its facial-recognition payment system for subways to cities outside of Moscow. (RFE/RL, 09.13.24)
• A Russian court on Sept. 12 put three lawyers who used to represent the late opposition activist Alexei Navalny on trial over "extremism" charges. The trial of three of his former lawyers—Vadim Kobzev, Alexei Liptser and Igor Sergunin—opened Sept. 12 in a court in the Vladimir region east of Moscow. Arrested in October 2023, the trio are accused of participating in an "extremist" organization, charges which carry a maximum of six years. (MT/AFP, 09.12.24)
• Leonid Nevzlin, a Russian-Israeli businessman and outspoken Kremlin critic, was accused by late opposition figure Alexei Navalny’s team of ordering a number of attacks against Navalny allies. Nevzlin, a close associate of exiled Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky, was accused of ordering assaults against Navalny ally Leonid Volkov in Lithuania, Navalny aide Ivan Zhdanov in Switzerland, and the wife of economist Maxim Mironov, Alexandra Petrachkova, in Argentina. Nevzlin denied having involvement in “any attacks on people, in any form whatsoever,” adding that “justice will confirm the absurdity and complete baselessness of the accusations against me.” Khodorkovsky said he believed that the information received by Team Navalny was an “FSB provocation.” (MT/AFP, 09.13.24)
• A Moscow court on Sept. 11 sentenced exiled former lawmaker Ilya Ponomaryov to 10 years in prison in absentia for “justifying terrorism” and spreading “fakes” about the Russian military. (MT/AFP, 09.11.24)
• Miroslava Reginskaya, the wife of imprisoned Russian nationalist Igor Girkin (aka Strelkov), has rejected reports saying her husband was released and allowed to join the Russian troops fighting in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 09.11.24)
• An August 2024 survey by Levada revealed that more than half of Russians (61%) are aware of the exchange of prisoners between Russia, Belarus and Western countries, which took place on Aug. 1. Most of the respondents (61%) found it difficult to answer why Western countries decided to include not only citizens of Western countries, but also several Russian opposition politicians in the exchange list, but 12% of respondents believe that the opposition politicians "worked for the “West, were their agents, their people, spies, traitors, foreign agents, paid, or 5th columnists.” Another 8% said they were included for use in “harming Russia in the future, destabilizing the situation, or slandering Russia.” (levada.ru, 09.10.24)
• Covid-19 cases are rising across Russia, driven by two new variants that are more resistant to immunity, the country’s consumer safety watchdog Rospotrebnadzor said Sept. 13. Over the past two to three weeks, infections from the KP.3 and LB.1 variants have surged by 100% and 400%, respectively. (MT/AFP, 09.13.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• Putin said the Russian Navy is holding its largest combat drills in three decades as he hit out at the U.S. over an accelerating arms race. “The U.S. is seeking to achieve a tangible military advantage, and in that way break the existing security architecture and balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region,” Putin said. “We will continue to strengthen our navy, including its strategic nuclear component.” The strategic command-staff exercises “Ocean 2024,” will continue until Sept. 16 and involve more than 400 vessels including warships, submarines and support vessels, as well as more than 120 naval aircraft and in excess of 90,000 personnel, the Russian Defense Ministry said on its Telegram channel. They’ll take place in the Pacific and Arctic oceans, and the Mediterranean, Caspian and Baltic seas, it said. (Bloomberg, 09.10.24, MT/AFP, 09.10.24)
• The rate of recruitment of contract soldiers in 2024 has accelerated by at least 6 times compared to last year in Russia/From April to June 2024, 92.8 thousand people received a one-time payment for signing a contract, according to data on federal budget expenditures. According to the budget, 166.2 thousand people signed a contract in the first half of 2024. Dmitry Medvedev stated that by July 2024, about 190 thousand people had gone to serve under a contract. The rate of recruitment for a contract has increased compared to 2023. Then, in the first half of the year, Russians signed 26.7 thousand new contracts— six times fewer than in 2024. (Istories, 09.09.24)
• India's NDTV television on Sept. 12 quoted the country's Foreign Ministry as saying that 45 Indian nationals had been discharged from the Russian forces fighting in Ukraine after they were tricked into enlisting. (RFE/RL, 09.13.24)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Foreign nationals serving terms in Russian prisons have been asked to write requests to serve the remainder of their terms in their homeland following two recent hostage-taking crises at Russian penitentiaries, IStories said on Sept. 10. (RFE/RL, 09.10.24)
• Two more former convicts recruited by the Wagner mercenary group have been handed lengthy prison terms for murders in Siberia. (RFE/RL, 09.09.24)
• A court in Russia's southwestern region of Volgograd on Sept. 11 sentenced a former Wagner mercenary group fighter to eight years in prison for beating his wife to death. (RFE/RL, 09.11.24)
• A court of appeals in St. Petersburg on Sept. 9 rejected an appeal filed by physicist Anatoly Maslov against the 14-year prison sentence he was handed in May on a high treason charge. The 77-year-old expert in the field of fluid gas was arrested in 2022 on suspicion of passing classified information to a foreign country. Maslov rejects the charge. At least 12 scientists have been arrested in Russia on treason charges since 2018. (RFE/RL, 09.10.24)
• Russian law enforcement authorities said Sept. 12 that they arrested the head of a cleaning supplies company on suspicion of defrauding the Russian Defense Ministry through government contracts. Federal investigators accused Lenbytkhim CEO Denis Mikhailov of misappropriating over 20 million rubles ($218,600) from a contract with Voentorg, the military’s clothing and food supplier, which was valued at 115 million rubles ($1.2 million). (MT/AFP, 09.12.24)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Japan scrambled fighter jets after Russian aircraft flew around the island nation for the first time in five years, Tokyo said. (MT/AFP, 09.13.24)
• Polish security services have neutralized a sabotage operation orchestrated by Russia and Belarus that aimed to destabilize Poland, Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski said on Sept. 9. (RFE/RL, 09.09.24)
• Russia continued its efforts to enhance relations with non-Western countries at the meeting of BRICS high-ranking security officials and advisors in St. Petersburg. Russian President Vladimir Putin met with officials from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), India, and Iran on Sept. 12 to discuss bilateral ties and promote Russia’s BRICS presidency and the upcoming October BRICS summit in Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan. (ISW, 09.12.24)
• Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin on Sept. 9 discussed the upcoming BRICS summit with Sergei Shoigu, formerly Russia's defense minister, who now serves as the secretary of the Security Council. President Vladimir Putin invited Serbia to attend the BRICS summit, which is scheduled to be held on October 22–24 in the Russian city of Kazan. (RFE/RL, 09.09.24)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attended the Russia-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Joint Ministerial Meeting of Strategic Dialogue in Saudi Arabia on Sept. 9, likely as part of Kremlin efforts to advance the creation of its envisioned “Eurasian security architecture.” (ISW, 09.09.24)
• The International Monetary Fund said that it can conduct an annual review of Russia’s economy for the first time since the war began because the region’s economic situation is “more settled” than before. The IMF last published such a review in early 2021. (Bloomberg, 09.10.24)
  • Several European Union nations are challenging International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva about the Washington-based lender’s plan to engage with Russia on economic issues for the first time since the invasion of Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 09.13.24)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry has denounced Russia’s elections in the occupied Ukrainian region of Crimea, noting that the procedure is a violation of international law. (RFE/RL, 09.08.24)
• Ukrainian officials continued to announce a series of appointments among senior members of the Ukrainian cabinet on Sept. 8. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed presidential decrees on Sept. 8 appointing Iryna Vereshchuk and Viktor Mykyta to the positions of Deputy Heads of the Presidential Office and appointing Oleksandr Kamyshin and Dmytro Lytvyn as his advisors. (ISW, 09.08.24)
• Nearly 60% of businesses in Ukraine said finding skilled workers was their main challenge, an economy ministry survey of over 3,000 companies showed. Metinvest, one of Ukraine's largest employers with a workforce of about 45,000, says it has about 4,000 vacancies. (Reuters, 09.12.24)
• Law enforcement officers have forwarded to court the case against former high-ranking official of the Security Service of Ukraine Andriy Naumov, who is accused of embezzlement, fraud and abuse of office. While working under a contract in the Security Service of Ukraine, he allegedly fraudulently took possession of the state enterprise's funds in the amount of almost 3.3 million hryvnia, which were unjustifiably accrued and paid to him in the form of an average monthly salary as the director of this enterprise. (Ukrainska Pravda, 09.12.24)
• A serviceman of a territorial recruitment center is suspected of trying to sell cars, which have been delivered as humanitarian aid to Ukraine, Korrespondent reported. The 46-year-old suspect sold vehicles imported to Ukraine through charitable foundations, which he was supposed to transfer free of charge to military formations, according to this news outlet. (RM, 09.12.24)
• The High Council of Justice of Ukraine dismissed the chairman of the Poltava Court of Appeal, Yevhen Galenkin. According to the Anti-Corruption Action Center, the long-time chairman of the court used his connections to "resolve issues" in proceedings against drunk drivers. (Korrespondent.net, 09.12.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Iran has firmly restated its opposition to the proposed Zangezur corridor, which would connect Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenian territory, following recent statements of support for the project from Russian officials. The controversy erupted after Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly expressed support for the corridor in a conversation with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, according to Baku-based media outlets. This was followed by an official statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson emphasizing the necessity of establishing the Zangezur corridor. (BNE, 09.08.24)
• Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) accused the United States of weaponizing European election observers to discredit next month’s elections in Georgia and spark pro-Western street demonstrations. “The U.S. State Department intends to use a new tool to interfere in Georgia’s parliamentary elections on Oct. 26 in order to prevent the victory of Georgian Dream,” the SVR said. (MT/AFP, 09.12.24)
• Kazakhstani company ARC Group cooperates with the Russian military in servicing Russian Su-30SM aircraft, which are equipped with French aviation equipment from THALES and SAFRAN. (Ukrainska Pravda, 09.12.24)
• The Tajik Embassy in Moscow on Sept. 10 warned citizens against traveling to Russia for the time being, citing beefed-up security measures and increased document checks by Russian border guards. Last week, the Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry put out a similar statement to its citizens citing the same reasons. Central Asian migrant workers and visitors have faced increased scrutiny from Russian authorities following a deadly terrorist attack at an entertainment center near Moscow in March that left more than 140 people dead and hundreds injured. Russia arrested 12 suspects, mostly from Tajikistan. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Tajik Service, click here. (RFE/RL, 09.10.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• “Russia’s duty is to sharply activate the nuclear factor in world politics and convince our opponents that we are ready to use nuclear weapons in the event of any encroachment on our territory and our citizens,” Sergei Karaganov, who had been a member of the Scientific Council under Vladimir Putin’s Security Council until April 2024, told Kommersant. (RM, 09.13.24) Encroachment on Russian territory and its citizens are absent from conditions for use of nuclear weapons outlined in such official documents, as Russia’s 2014 doctrine nor its 2020 basic principles of policy on nuclear deterrence. Karaganov’s statement, thus, aims to modify doctrinal language to liberalize conditions for use of nuclear weapons.

Footnotes

1. For a good explainer of this issue, including more details on Savill’s views, please see “What are Storm Shadow missiles and why are they crucial for Ukraine?” by Frank Gardner for BBC on 09.11.24. Another recent explainer can be found on FT’s website.
2. The WSJ analysis features useful maps of changes in territorial control.
3. The GPS system of satellite navigation used in Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles, which have a range of up to 250 kilometers, is operated by the Pentagon. When used in complex operations, Storm Shadow missiles are often assisted by U.S.-provided data that helps them map terrain with a high level of accuracy. (Bloomberg, 09.12.24, RM, 09.12.24)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo is an AP Photo/Lewis Joly, File.