5 Things to Know

1. Recent Ukrainian advances have left Russia unsure which parts of the newly-annexed regions of Ukraine to claim as its own as criticism of war management mounts. Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, was quoted by FT as saying that any decision of how much territory in Ukraine’s Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions to annex required further consultation with the local population. The losses of territory in both the south and east to advancing Ukrainian troops has prompted a growing chorus of hawks among Russia’s legislative and regional authorities, such as Chechnya’s Ramzan Kadyrov, to accuse the military top brass of lying to Putin and to call for reshuffling the command in harsh terms. That Kadyrov’s criticism was followed by news that Putin had promoted him to the rank of Colonel General indicates that the Russian leader—who was reportedly confronted this week by a member of his inner circle over mismanaging the war—supports the Chechen leader’s harsh view of his generals’ conduct.
2. While Putin has this week refrained from making veiled threats to use nuclear weapons, one Russian regional leader has explicitly called for it. That leader was Chechnya’s Kadyrov, who called for Russia to use a low-yield nuclear weapon after Russian forces had been driven out of Lyman in the northeastern part of Ukraine. Following Kadyrov’s statement, Western leaders again condemned their Russian counterparts for nuclear saber-rattling. U.S. President Joe Biden said, "We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis." Meanwhile, retired U.S. Gen. David Petraeus—who headed the CIA in 2011-2012—claimed that the U.S., along with NATO allies, would “take out” Russian forces in Ukraine if Putin decided to use nuclear weapons against that country.
3. The Russian military overdraft draws fire from both officials and opposition. While Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu promised than only 1% of reservists would be called up, at least 26 of Russia’s regions have conscripted more men than that, according to Istories’ count. The greatest overdraft has occurred in Krasnoyarskyi Krai, where almost 5.5% of reservists have been drafted. It has also occurred in Buryatia (3.7%) and Dagestan (2.6%). The overdraft has drawn accusations of “a genocide” in Buryatia, while in Dagestan, Governor Sergei Melikov has asked overzealous recruiters if they were “morons.” In the Khabarovsk region, around half of those recruited into the Russian military have been sent home due to wrongful mobilization. At least 213,000 have already been drafted in the first two weeks of Russia’s “partial mobilization,” but this only accounts for two-thirds of the country’s regions, according to Istories.
4. OPEC+ defies U.S. pressure, siding with Russia on oil production cuts. The Saudi-led cartel, which Russia is allied with, has agreed to cut output by 2 million barrels per day, or roughly 2% of global oil consumption, RFE/RL reported. That the cartel would align with Russia on cuts, the deepest since the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, is remarkable, given vocal opposition and warnings of consequences from Washington.
5. Russia seeks continued cooperation with the U.S. in manned space exploration. In an apparent change of heart, Russia's space agency said on Oct. 4 it is seeking to continue its participation in the multi-nation International Space Station beyond 2024. The statement comes less than three months after the agency’s new chief Yuri Borisov had said that Russia would leave the ISS "after 2024.” On Oct. 5, a Russian cosmonaut and three astronauts launched from the United States on a five-month mission to the ISS. Space has been one of the few areas in which U.S.-Russian cooperation has not been discontinued since the start of the war in Ukraine.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin on Oct. 5 ordered his government to take over operations at Europe's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP). Ihor Murashov, director of ZNPP, who was recently released after reports that he had been abducted by Russian forces, will not return to his job, according to IEAA chief Rafael Grossi. The absence of Murashov "had an immediate and serious impact on decision-making in ensuring the safety and security of the plant," Grossi said. (MT/AFP, 10.05.22, RFE/RL, 10.04.22)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• The EU has unveiled tighter visa requirements for Russians that would throw difficult—and, for some, impossible—hurdles up for them to enter the bloc except on humanitarian grounds. (MT/AFP, 09.30.22)
• The World Bank has approved an additional $530 million in reconstruction and recovery assistance to Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 10.01.22)
• The prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine in late September was approved by Putin over the objections of the FSB, which had concerns about a public backlash in Russia, according to senior Ukrainian and U.S. officials. (WP, 10.02.22)

• Pope Francis has called on Putin to stop "this spiral of violence and death" over the war in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 10.02.22)
• Evidence of the practice of forced transfers from Ukraine to Russia is mounting. A report by Human Rights Watch, based on more than 50 interviews with people affected, called such transfers a war crime. (WSJ, 10.04.22)
• Ukrainians who have fled their country's occupied regions annexed by Moscow have one month to accept or reject Russian citizenship, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said. (MT/AFP, 10.04.22)
• U.S. intelligence agencies believe a car bombing that killed the daughter of Kremlin-connected far-right ideologue Alexander Dugin was authorized by elements within the Ukrainian government. (RFE/RL, 10.06.22)
• Russia has submitted a preliminary objection to a genocide case brought by Ukraine against Russia, the International Court of Justice said Oct. 6. (RFE/RL, 10.06.22)
• Ukrainian authorities said they had found the bodies of 534 civilians in the liberated territory of the Kharkiv region. (Istories, 10.07.22)
• Samantha Power, head of the U.S. Agency for International Development, visited Kyiv on Oct. 6 and highlighted American funding for efforts to rebuild Ukrainian infrastructure and resurrect a damaged economy. (WP, 10.07.22)

Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Andrei Gurulyov, an MP and retired army general, blamed Russia’s military command for giving Putin incorrect information about the situation on the front lines, hitting out at “endemic lying” that led to over-optimistic reports of what was happening on the ground. (FT, 10.01.22)
• Ramzan Kadyrov, the strongman leader of Chechnya, said the army’s top brass were divorced from realities on the ground and misinforming Putin. He called for Russia to introduce martial law along the borders of Russia with Ukraine and for Russia to use a tactical nuclear weapon. Kadyrov explicitly singled out Col. Gen. Alexander Lapin in his criticism of the retreat of Russian forces in northeastern Ukraine. Within hours, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Putin ally who recently admitted to running the Wagner Group, added his criticism of the military’s top leaders, demanding they be “sent barefoot” to fight alongside Russian conscripts. In separate remarks, Kadyrov said he would send his teenage sons, including his 14-year-old son Adam, to fight in Ukraine, and that Putin promoted him to colonel general. (FT, 10.01.22, MT/AFP, 10.03.22, MT/AFP, 10.05.22, RM, 10.07.22) Kadyrov’s promotion by Putin indicates the latter’s support for the former at the time when the Chechen leader is harshly criticizing the Russian Defense Ministry’s leadership and calling for a nuclear strike on Ukraine.¹
• “Many are saying that the Defense Minister—who allowed things to come to this—should simply shoot himself like a [real] officer,” Kirill Stremousov, the acting governor of Kherson’s Russia-installed administration, said in a video posted on his Telegram channel Oct. 6. Stremousov noted that his harsh criticism was not directed at the entirety of Russia’s Defense Ministry but rather at a handful of “unskillful commanders.” (MT/AFP, 10.06.22)
• Ukraine claims that in total Russia has lost about 60,400 soldiers since the start of its invasion in February. (RFE/RL, 10.03.22)
  • Of the 6,756 Russian troops officially reported killed in Ukraine as of Sept. 23, Dagestan accounted for 306 and Buryatia 276, as opposed to just 24 for Moscow, according to a tally by Mediazona. (FT, 10.04.22)
  • The GRU’s 3rd Guards Spetsnaz Brigade may have lost up to three-quarters of its reconnaissance manpower in Ukraine, according to research published by the BBC’s Russian service Oct. 4. (MT/AFP, 10.05.22)
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said more than 200,000 people have been conscripted into the army since Putin ’s Sept. 21 order for a partial call-up. (Bloomberg, 10.04.22).
• The $625 million package of military equipment drawn from existing U.S. stockpiles for Ukraine includes as many as 200 additional fortified Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles. That’s in addition to four more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, bringing the total to 20, and 75,000 rounds of 155mm artillery rounds. The aid package is the 22nd the U.S. military has dedicated to Ukraine since August 2021. (NYT, 10.04.22, Bloomberg, 10.04.22)
• Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelensky declared on Oct. 2 that Ukrainian troops are in full control of the eastern city of Lyman. The Russian Defense Ministry acknowledged the retreat from Lyman. Russia confirmed on Oct. 3 that Ukrainian forces have broken through the front lines in Kherson. Ukraine’s army has liberated more than 450 settlements in the northern Kharkiv region since September and nearly 500 square kilometers of territory in the southern Kherson region in less than a week, according to Zelensky. As of the morning of Oct. 7, Ukrainian forces were conducting offensives in areas that include the villages of P'yatykhatkyi, Sukhanovo, Davidiv Brod and Dudchany in the southern Kherson region, according to Russian pro-war Telegram channel Rybar. The Ukrainian forces were also reported on Oct. 7 to have re-taken the village of Tryfonivka in the same region. As for the northern part of the front, Ukrainian forces were reported on Oct. 7 by a Russian war correspondent to have taken the village of Hlushkivka. (RM, 10.07.22, RFE/RL, 10.02.22, RFE/RL, 10.01.22, FT, 10.03.22, Bloomberg, 10.04.22, FT, 10.05.22, NYT, 10.07.22) There are presently areas in the east and south, in which Russian/pro-Russian forces are far from being able to either maintain a “continuous” line of defense or attain a 1:3 ratio vis-à-vis advancing Ukrainian units (some of the Russian war watchers put the current ratio at 1:10 in some areas of combat) that pierce what well-informed ex-commanders on the Russian side, such as Igor Girkin, and Russian military writer Yuri Kotyonok (embedded with Russian units) describe as porous defenses or the absence of continuous defense, respectively.
  • The Kremlin said it did not know how much Ukrainian territory Russia was attempting to annex, days after Putin laid claim to four regions in the country’s southeast. Putin’s spokesman Peskov said any decision of how much territory in Ukraine’s Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions to annex required further consultation with the local population. Putin—who finalized the annexation of four partially occupied Ukrainian regions Oct. 5—said he believed the situation in the four newly annexed Ukrainian regions would stabilize shortly despite Russian forces' ongoing losses to Kyiv’s counteroffensive. (MT/AFP, 10.05.22, FT, 10.03.22)
  • Military officials and analysts estimated Ukraine could liberate Kherson any time from mid-November—if they succeed in doing so at all. (FT, 10.05.22)
  • Ukraine’s rapid retaking of territory in the northeast and the progress that its forces are making against Russian forces in the south represent a “stunning success,” Celeste Wallander, the U.S. assistant secretary of defense, said. (NYT, 10.03.22)
  • U.S. officials and lawmakers have warned that Ukraine faces a critical battle to reclaim territory in the south of the country before winter brings treacherous fighting conditions if it is to deny Russia a chance to solidify its hold on the region. (FT, 10.05.22) It is Marshal Mud, not General Frost that hinders maneuvering in parts of Ukraine in fall-winter. It typically becomes more difficult to maneuver offroad in parts of Ukraine where fighting is currently underway in late fall/winter as the combination of temperatures that do not dip too far below freezing and greater levels of precipitation produce mud. Weather conditions are not a decisive factor, however. In fact, one of the biggest successes of Russian and pro-Russian forces (the encirclement of Ukrainian forces at Debaltseve) occurred in January-February 2015.
• The Russian military fired a dozen self-destructing Iranian-supplied drones at Bila Tserkva, a town about 50 miles south of Kyiv, overnight on Oct. 5, in what appeared to be the first time such weapons have been used against a target near the Ukrainian capital. (NYT, 10.05.22)
• Ukraine has captured 460 Russian main battle tanks, 92 self-propelled howitzers, 448 infantry fighting vehicles, 195 armored fighting vehicles and 44 multiple-launch rocket systems, according to Oryx, an open-source intelligence consulting firm. (WSJ, 10.05.22)
• New Russian army units formed from the 300,000 men the Kremlin is calling up for military service will not be an effective fighting force in Ukraine “for a few months,” a senior NATO official said on Oct. 4. (NYT, 10.05.22)
• Falling temperatures are expected to increase troops' demand for even the most basic provisions, straining supply lines that are already overtaxed. Rain and snow will muddy the battlefield, rendering heavy military vehicles and equipment functionally immovable. It's a particular concern in the south, where heavy fighting is ongoing and the ground has failed to freeze over in recent years. (WP, 10.06.22)
• Ukrainian officials are reviving their pleas for more weaponry, including advanced systems like the U.S. Army Tactical Missile System to strike Crimea, congressional and U.S. officials said. The administration’s reluctance to provide these long-range missiles reflects a deeper dispute, in part, over how to support Ukraine without risking a broader conflict with Russia, whose leaders have been hinting they may resort to nuclear weapons. (WSJ, 10.07.22)
• The Russian Armed Forces launched missiles against Ukraine from the territory of Belarus for the first time since the end of August. Four Russian Tu-22M3 aircraft carried out an air strike on the territory of Ukraine from the Belarusian airspace. They attacked targets in the Khmelnytskyi oblast of Ukraine. (Belarusky Gayn, 10.07.22)
• A member of Putin 's inner circle has voiced disagreement directly to the Russian president in recent weeks over his handling of the war in Ukraine, according to information obtained by U.S. intelligence. The information was deemed significant enough that it was included in Biden's daily intelligence briefing. "Since the start of the occupation we have witnessed growing alarm from a number of Putin 's inner circle," a Western intelligence official said. "Our assessments suggest they are particularly exercised by recent Russian losses, misguided direction and extensive military shortcomings." (WP, 10.07.22)

Punitive measures related to Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Western sanctions had three goals. First, the United States wanted "to reduce the capacity of the Russian military machine to regenerate its ability to threaten Ukraine." Second, the sanctions aimed to "undermine Russia's major sectors in technology, in industry and, of course, in defense" so that, over time, "its capacity to project power, threaten and coerce its neighbors and wage wars of aggression is reduced." Lastly, Sullivan said the sanctions are intended to send a message to Russia's allies that if they "are going to stand beside Russia on this issue of illegal annexation, they will subject themselves to sanctions." (WP, 10.02.22)
• Russian birch wood has continued to flow to American consumers, disguised as Asian products, despite U.S. economic sanctions imposed on Russia. (WP, 10.02.22)
• The U.S. Treasury has estimated the G7’s plan to cap the price of Russian oil exports could yield $160 billion in annual savings for the 50 largest emerging markets, as Washington insists the scheme it has championed will keep a lid on energy costs around the world. (FT, 10.04.22)
• The European Union’s top official Ursula von der Leyen called on Oct. 5 for a temporary price cap on natural gas used to produce electricity inside the bloc, but stopped short of proposing a general limit on import prices. (NYT, 10.05.22)
• The EU’s eighth sanctions package on Russia over its war in Ukraine was officially adopted on Oct. 6. The package is meant to deprive Moscow of billions of euros in revenues from the sale of products that the EU says generate significant revenues for Russia. In addition to targeted sanctions on individuals linked to the annexation “referendums” and Russian defense sector officials, the document introduces a complete ban on cryptocurrency transactions with Russian nationals and residents. Hours after the EU  signed off on the package, which features support for a price cap on oil sales to third countries, Russia said the move would backfire and could lead to a temporary cut in the country’s production. (RFE/RL, 10.06.22, Bloomberg, 10.08.22, MT/AFP, 10.06.22)
• Authorities in the Netherlands said Oct. 7 they arrested a 55-year-old man last week on suspicion of selling microchips to Russian companies and other entities in violation of sanctions. (NYT, 10.07.22)

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• Zelensky signed a decree which effectively bans any negotiations with Putin , according to a document text on the Ukrainian leader’s official website. (Bloomberg, 10.04.22)
• Elon Musk infuriated Ukrainians when he suggested that the country seek a negotiated solution to the invasion by Russia and cede Crimea for good. The Kremlin has hailed Musk’s attempt to put forward a peace plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, calling it a “very positive” sign. (Bloomberg, 10.04.22, MT/AFP, 10.04.22)
• U.S. Rep. Brad Sherman predicted that “The ultimate settlement would be six, eight months from now.” “Putin controls somewhat more acreage than he did in February . . . and then we reach a ceasefire. But I think Ukraine needs to take some more territory back before that happens,” he said. (FT, 10.05.22)
• A September-October poll by Russian Field in Russia indicates that if Putin signed a peace accord and stopped the “special military operation” tomorrow, 75% of Russians would support these developments. (RM, 10.06.22)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Nine Central and Eastern European countries have given their backing to Ukraine's bid to join NATO and urged the Western alliance to provide Kyiv with more weapons to defend itself against invading Russian forces. The statement, issued on Oct. 2, was signed by the leaders of the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. The joint statement comes after Zelensky announced on Sept. 30 that Ukraine had submitted an application for accession to NATO under an accelerated procedure. (RFE/RL, 10.02.22)
• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan renewed his threat to block the NATO bids of Sweden and Finland, saying he would not give his approval until the two Nordic countries kept promises he said were made to Ankara. (RFE/RL, 10.01.22)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Based on what Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui told the media earlier this year, the proportion of Chinese yuan in bilateral trade settlements between China and Russia has increased from 3.1% in 2014 to 17.5% in 2020. This year, according to official Russian accounts, the proportion of bilateral trade settlements in yuan or rubles between China and Russia may reach 45-65%. (Brookings, 10.03.22)
• In 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Russians accounted for 8% of international students in China, ranking sixth in the number of foreign students in China. In 2020, about 300 inter-school cooperation agreements were signed between Chinese and Russian universities. (Brookings, 10.03.22)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has warned of “severe consequences for Russia” if Putin were to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, amid escalating rhetoric from Moscow and its allies. “Any deliberate attack on a critical NATO infrastructure will be met with a firm and united response from NATO,” he said. (FT, 10.02.22)
• Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has called for Russia to use a low-yield nuclear weapon after Russian forces had been driven out of Lyman in the northeastern part of Ukraine. (RM, 10.01.22) Some facets of Putin's regime are clearly dictatorial (e.g. decision-making on key foreign policy issues), others not. Otherwise, there'd be consequences for a regional leader's decision to call for use of nukes in a war in which that leader is not part of the official nuclear chain of command. Interestingly, in contrast to Kadyrov, some of Russia’s most prominent hawks outside the government, including Igor Girkin (Strelkov) and Yegor Kholmogorov strongly object to a first use of nuclear weapons by Russia against Ukraine in the absence of a direct conflict with NATO.
• U.S. and Western officials say they still think it unlikely that Putin will carry out his nuclear threats, but they are taking the threats seriously. Sullivan said that there would be "catastrophic consequences" if Russia resorts to the use of nuclear weapons. (WP, 10.02.22)
• For all his threats to fire tactical nuclear arms at Ukrainian targets, Putin is now discovering what the United States itself concluded years ago: Small nuclear weapons are hard to use, harder to control and a far better weapon of terror and intimidation than a weapon of war. The smallest nuclear weapon in the Russian arsenal delivers an explosion of around 1 kiloton, one fifteenth of the size of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima, which would inflict massive destruction but on a more limited area. U.S. Army studies have concluded that a one kiloton warhead has to detonate within 90 meters of a tank to inflict serious damage. (FT, 10.04.22, WP, 10.02.22, NYT, 10.05.22)
• Retired U.S. Gen. David Petraeus predicted Oct. 2 that the U.S., along with NATO allies, would “take out” Russian forces if Putin decided to use nuclear weapons in his war against neighboring Ukraine. “Just to give you a hypothetical, we would respond by leading a NATO, a collective effort, that would take out every Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea and every ship in the Black Sea,” Petraeus said. (The Hill, 10.02.22)
• The Russian military’s movements of nuclear-capable assets appear to be intended to send a “signal” to the West amid its losses in Ukraine, analysts said this week. London’s Times reported that a train linked to Russia’s main nuclear command was seen on the move, while Italy’s La Repubblica reported a planned test of a new nuclear torpedo dubbed the “apocalypse weapon.” (Bloomberg, 10.04.22, MT/AFP, 10.04.22)
• U.S. officials have said they have no information to corroborate media reports suggesting Russia is preparing to use a tactical nuclear weapon on or near the battlefield in Ukraine. Laura Cooper, a deputy assistant secretary of defense, said she had seen only "open-source reports" suggesting Russia might be moving tactical nuclear weapons by rail. She added that the U.S. military had not seen anything to change its own nuclear posture. (RFE/RL, 10.05.22)
• Russia says it is remains "fully committed" to avoiding a nuclear conflict amid global concerns that recent statements from the Kremlin indicated atomic weapons are an option if Moscow's war on Ukraine escalates, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Oct. 6. (RFE/RL, 10.06.22)
• Russian officials voiced anger over Zelensky’s remarks Oct. 6 on preventive strikes that his spokesman later said had been misinterpreted. Zelensky appealed for the international community to “do preemptive strikes” instead of “waiting for Russian nuclear strikes” when asked about NATO’s role in the conflict. Kremlin spokesman Peskov called Zelensky’s comments “nothing else than a call to start a world war.” (MT/AFP, 10.07.22)
• Biden has warned that the threat of the Kremlin using nuclear weapons was the highest in six decades. Putin has made thinly veiled threats to use his nuclear arsenal in Ukraine, and Biden told U.S. media on Oct. 6 that Putin was "not joking." "We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis" in 1962, Biden said in New York, adding that "we're trying to figure out what is Putin 's off-ramp." “Where does he find a way out?”  (FT, 10.07.22, RFE/RL, 10.07.22)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security:

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• Biden said for the first time on Sept. 30 that the explosions that rocked the Nord Stream pipelines under the Baltic Sea were the result of sabotage. (RFE/RL, 09.30.22)
• A new natural-gas pipeline from Greece to Bulgaria has come into service, marking a significant step toward weening the country and others from a dependence on Russian energy imports. (RFE/RL, 10.01.22)
• European Union leaders will discuss the security of crucial infrastructure when they meet in Prague next week. (RFE/RL, 10.01.22)
• Although the United States and its European allies have refrained from making direct accusations, few doubt that Russia was behind the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, said an EU official. "I don't think anyone has doubts. It's the handwriting of the Kremlin," he said. "It's an indication of, 'look what is coming, look what we are able to do.'" (WP, 10.02.22)
• Stable pressure has been achieved in the damaged Nord Stream 1 pipeline, authorities in Denmark say, indicating the outflow of natural gas from the last leaks has now halted. (RFE/RL, 10.02.22)
• NATO member Norway has posted soldiers to help guard major onshore oil and gas processing plants, its military said, as part of efforts to beef up security amid suspicion that sabotage caused leaks in the Nord Stream gas pipelines. (RFE/RL, 10.03.22)
• The U.S. Supreme Court has sided with Russian oil company Tatneft in a dispute with Ukraine over the payment of a multimillion-dollar judgment awarded years ago by an arbitration panel. (RFE/RL, 10.03.22)
• Italian energy company Eni said that Russian gas flows through Austria have resumed as new regulatory framework in Austria has been set up. (FT, 10.05.22)
• The operator of the damaged Nord Stream 1 pipeline has said that it has been unable to conduct its own inspection of its pipeline more than a week after suspected sabotage triggered massive leaks. (RFE/RL, 10.05.22)
• Moscow said Oct. 5 it should be part of the probe into leaks on the Nord Stream pipelines, after Sweden blocked off the area around the pipelines pending an investigation. Sweden's security police and prosecutor's office say a preliminary investigation into leaks from the pipelines has strengthened suspicions of sabotage as the cause. (RFE/RL, 10.06.22, MT/AFP, 10.05.22)
• Russia increased oil production in September. Last month’s average daily output rose by 1% from August to nearly 1.47 million metric tons, or 10.8 million barrels per day, according to the publication. (MT/AFP, 10.05.22)
• The Saudi-led OPEC+ cartel, which includes Russia, has agreed to cut output by 2 million barrels per day, or roughly 2% of global oil consumption, its deepest cut in production since the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. (RFE/RL, 10.06.22)
  • The OPEC+ decision rebuffed Biden. The White House responded by saying Biden was "disappointed by the shortsighted decision" at a time when the global economy is dealing with "the continued negative impact of Putin 's invasion of Ukraine." The White House also said no action was off the table a day later. (FT, 10.07.22, RFE/RL, 10.06.22)
  • The Kremlin said Oct. 6 that the OPEC+ decision was proof that "some countries understand the absurdity" of Washington's demand for a price cap on Russian oil. (MT/AFP, 10.06.22)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• U.S. federal officials are warning ahead of the November midterms that Russia is working to amplify doubts about the integrity of U.S. elections while China is interested in undermining American politicians it sees as threats to Beijing's interests. (AP, 10.04.22)
• Roskosmos, Russia's space agency, is seeking a continuation of its participation in the International Space Station (ISS) past 2024, an agency official said on Oct. 3. Roskosmos chief Yuri Borissov had said over the summer that Russia would leave the ISS "after 2024.” (RFE/RL, 10.04.22)
  • A Russian cosmonaut and three astronauts launched from the U.S. on Oct. 5 on a five-month mission to the ISS. It was the first launch of a cosmonaut from the United States in 20 years. (RFE/RL, 10.05.22)
• A court in the western Russian city of Voronezh has sentenced former U.S. Marine Robert Gilman to 4 1/2 years in prison for attacking a police officer while drunk. (RFE/RL, 10.04.22)
• The White House on Oct. 4 described an Oct. 25 appeals hearing for jailed U.S. basketball star Brittney Griner in Russia as a "sham." (MT/AFP, 10.04.22)
• Two Russians who said they fled their home country to avoid compulsory military service have requested asylum in the United States after landing on a remote Alaskan island in the Bering Sea. (RFE/RL, 10.06.22)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Putin is marking his 70th birthday Oct. 7 with little fanfare as the war in Ukraine continues to rage. The head of the Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill said Oct. 7 that Putin's reign over Russia had been mandated by God, congratulating the Kremlin chief on his 70th birthday. (MT/AFP, 10.07.22, MT/AFP, 10.07.22) 
• Top aides to jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny said they’re restarting a national protest movement to capitalize on growing discontent over the war in Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 10.04.22)
• The Supreme Lama of Russia's Republic of Kalmykia has become the first religious leader in the Russian Federation to condemn Russia's ongoing unprovoked invasion in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 10.03.22)
• A court in the Far East has again extended the forced detention in a psychiatric clinic of a Yakut shaman Alexander Gabyshev who became known across Russia for his attempts to march to Moscow to drive Putin out of the Kremlin. (RFE/RL, 10.04.22)
• Russian authorities on Oct. 3 placed Marina Ovsyannikova, the former state TV journalist who denounced the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine on-air, on the federal wanted list. (MT/AFP, 10.03.22)
• Jailed Russian opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza reportedly has been charged with high treason and faces up to 20 years in prison. (RFE/RL, 10.06.22)
• Russian musical superstar Alla Pugacheva slammed critics of her opposition to Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Oct. 4, calling supporters of the war "slaves" and "lackeys." (MT/AFP, 10.04.22)
• Police have searched the Moscow office of Golos (Voice), a movement that monitors elections and defends voters' rights, as well as the homes of the group's members. Grigory Melkonyants, the movement's co-chairman, said the searches were conducted because the Golos members were "witnesses" in a probe launched against their colleague Mikhail Gusev, who was charged with discrediting Russia's armed forces. (RFE/RL, 10.05.22)
• The last native speaker of the Aleut language in Russia, Gennady Yakovlev, has died at the age of 86 in Russia's Far Eastern Kamchatka region. (RFE/RL, 10.05.22)
• The U.N. Human Rights Council on Oct. 7 agreed to monitor the rights situation in Russia, marking the first-ever resolution focused on violations inside the country. The 47-member top U.N. rights body accepted the draft text presented by all European Union countries with the exception of Hungary, with 17 nations voting in favor of appointing a so-called special rapporteur to monitor Russia. Twenty-four countries abstained, while six voted “no,” including China, Cuba and Venezuela. (MT/AFP, 10.07.22)

Defense and aerospace:

• Putin has signed a decree creating a simplified naturalization process for foreigners who join the Russian armed forces on a contractual basis. (RFE/RL, 09.30.22)
• Around half of those recruited into the Russian military from Far Eastern Russia's Khabarovsk region had been sent home due to wrongful mobilization, the region's governor said Oct. 3. (MT/AFP, 10.03.22)
• At least six newly mobilized Russian soldiers have died since the start of the country’s “partial” mobilization less than two weeks ago, human rights lawyer Pavel Chikov said. (MT/AFP, 10.03.22)
• At least 213,000 have been drafted in the first two weeks of Russia’s “partial mobilization,” but this only accounts for two-thirds of the country’s regions, according to Istories. Shoigu promised that the mobilization would affect "1%.” According to Istories’ calculations, every other region overfulfilled the conscription plan: 26 out of 53 subjects for which data is known have sent more than the 1.19% of reservists declared by Shoigu to the war. The highest figure is near the Krasnoyarsk Territory, from which 28,000 people were supposed to be sent to war—almost 5.5%. Up to 4% of those who are in the reserves will be called up from Sevastopol. There are also many being drafted in Buryatia (3.7%), Dagestan (2.6%) and Kalmykia (2.2%). In 23 out of the 26 regions from where more than 1% of reservists are called up, incomes are below the all-Russian level. (Istories, 10.05.22)
  • Russia is conducting “basically a genocide of Buryats, Ukrainians and other peoples,” said Alexandra Garmazhapova, head of the Free Buryatia Foundation, an antiwar advocacy group. “To conquer another territory and make it part of the empire, you use national minorities . . . because they are expendable,” she said. (FT, 10.04.22)
• Recently mobilized Russian soldiers are decrying "inhumane" conditions, weapons shortages and mistreatment by officers, according to video published by the independent news website The Insider on Oct. 5. (MT/AFP, 10.06.22)
• Russian Gen. Rustam Muradov was appointed commander of Russia’s Eastern military district. In July, the Defense Ministry stated that Muradov was commander of the Russian troops of the Vostok grouping in the Donbas. (Meduza, 10.07.22)
• Also see section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Valery Mitko, the 81-year-old Russian scientist placed under house arrest after being charged with high treason two years ago, has died. (RFE/RL, 10.03.22)
• Vyacheslav Vishnevsky, the former director general and co-owner of a shopping mall that was destroyed by a fire in 2018 in the Kemerovo region, killing 60 people including 37 children, has been sentenced to eight years in prison. (RFE/RL, 10.07.22)
• Prosecutors in the southern Russian city of Penza dropped all charges in what would have been the first criminal case for evading Moscow’s “partial” mobilization. The criminal case had been initiated against a 32-year-old man who allegedly refused to sign papers summoning him to the local conscription office and was subsequently detained by OMON riot police officers. (MT/AFP, 10.07.22)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia has not received enough votes to remain on the United Nation aviation agency’s governing council, another diplomatic blow to Moscow in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 10.01.22)
• In a tit-for-tat move, Tokyo has ordered a senior Russian official stationed in the country to leave following Russia's decision last week to expel a Japanese diplomat over alleged spying. (RFE/RL, 10.04.22)
• In a tit-for-tat move, Russia has expelled Lithuania's charge d'affaires and suspended the operations of a cultural center at the Lithuanian Embassy in Moscow. (RFE/RL, 10.05.22)

Ukraine:

• Stoltenberg condemned the Russian "land grab" of four Ukrainian provinces in decrees signed by Putin. He said the move was "illegal and illegitimate," calling it the "largest attempted annexation of European territory by force since World War II." (RFE/RL, 09.30.22)
• A U.S.-led effort to win United Nations Security Council support for a resolution condemning Russia's staged referendums and its attempt to illegally annex four regions of Ukraine, failed to pass Sept. 30 when Russia, as anticipated, vetoed the measure. Four nations—China, India, Brazil and Gabon—abstained from the vote in the 15-member body, despite U.S. exhortations to "stand up and defend our collective beliefs." (WP, 10.02.22)
• "Russia is violating international law, trampling on the United Nations Charter and showing its contempt for peaceful nations everywhere," Biden said. "Make no mistake: these actions have no legitimacy." He added: "The United States will always honor Ukraine's internationally recognized borders. We will continue to support Ukraine's efforts to regain control of its territory by strengthening its hand militarily and diplomatically." (WP, 10.02.22)
• The presidents of nine NATO countries in central and eastern Europe declared on Sunday they would never recognize the annexation by Russia of Ukrainian territory. Bulgarian President Rumen Radev said on Oct. 3 that he did not join other leaders of Central and Eastern European countries in signing the declaration because he did not agree with the full text of the declaration. (RFE/RL, 10.03.22, MT/AFP, 10.02.22)
• Finland and Poland say they have summoned Russia's ambassadors in their countries to condemn Russia’s attempt to illegally annex an additional four Ukrainian regions through referendums widely seen as a sham. (RFE/RL, 10.03.22)
• Turkey has joined a growing international chorus in condemning Russia's attempt to illegally annex an additional four Ukrainian regions. (RFE/RL, 10.01.22)
• Ukraine’s parliament has appointed Andriy Pyshnyi as the country’s new central bank chief. The previous central bank chief Kyrylo Shevchenko resigned this week and cited health problems. (FT, 10.07.22)
• Leaders across Europe hailed on Oct. 6 their united front against Russia’s war on Ukraine, after gathering in Prague for the inaugural meeting of the European Political Community. The inaugural summit of the European Political Community brought together the 27 European Union member countries, the UK—now outside the EU—as well as aspiring partners in the Balkans and Eastern Europe. (AP, 10.07.22)
• Ukraine has been added to Portugal and Spain's bid to host the 2030 World Cup, creating a joint European application to host the soccer tournament in eight years time. (RFE/RL, 10.05.22)
• The Ukrainian Supreme Court has dismissed its judge Bohdan Lvov following a recent finding by Schemes that he has Russian citizenship. (RFE/RL, 10.05.22)
• This year’s Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to a jailed Belarusian human rights activist and two rights groups in Russia and Ukraine. Belarus rights activist Ales Bialiatski, the Russian group Memorial and Ukraine’s Center for Civil Liberties were joint winners of the award, the Nobel Committee said on Oct. 7. (FT, 10.07.22)
• Russian human rights defender Svetlana Gannushkina and a Ukrainian delivery nurse from Mariupol, Tetyana Sokolova, have won an international award for their efforts to help people affected by Russia's ongoing unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 10.07.22)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• The World Bank says countries in its Europe and Central Asia region will return to weak growth in 2023 "reflecting negative spillovers" from the war in Ukraine. The World Bank said the collective GDP in its Europe and Central Asia region was now expected to grow by 0.3% in 2023. That will follow contraction now forecast to be 0.2% this year, the World Bank said in an economic update for Europe and Central Asia released on Oct. 4. (RFE/RL, 10.04.22)
• Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko publicly acknowledged his country is taking part in Russia’s so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine, his first such statement since the start of Moscow’s war against Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 10.04.22)
• Lukashenko has banned price increases. (RFE/RL, 10.06.22)
• Kyrgyz officials say seven members of the banned Hizb ut-Tahrir Islamic group have been detained in the Central Asian nation. (RFE/RL, 10.03.22)
• Kazakh Interior Minister Marat Akhmetzhanov says 200,000 Russian citizens have entered the country since Putin announced a partial mobilization on Sept. 21. (RFE/RL, 10.04.22)
• Kazakh authorities have rejected a demand by Russia's Foreign Ministry to expel Ukraine's ambassador to Kazakhstan, Petro Vrublevskiy, over his comments in August about killing Russians. (RFE/RL, 10.05.22)
• The former deputy secretary of Kazakhstan's Security Council, Marat Shaikhutdinov, has been sentenced to seven years in prison on charges of high treason and espionage. (RFE/RL, 10.07.22)
• The European Union's envoy for the South Caucasus and Georgia has called for investigations into videos that appear to show potential war crimes being committed by Azerbaijan and Armenia. (RFE/RL, 10.03.22)
• The European Council says the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan have met on the sidelines of a summit in Prague and agreed to a civilian EU mission alongside their common border. (RFE/RL, 10.07.22)
• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met Oct. 6 to hold the first talks in 13 years between the leaders of the two countries amid a push to establish diplomatic relations. Foreign ministers of both countries were also instructed to prepare to take steps to forward the normalization process, Erdogan said. (Bloomberg, 10.06.22)
• Georgians’ dismay at their government’s open-door policy—which has rankled since the Ukraine invasion in February—has been rekindled by the arrival of what the interior ministry in Tbilisi currently says are 5,000 to 6,000 Russians each day through their shared land border. (FT, 10.07.22)

 

IV. Quotable and notable

• "No one knows what Putin will decide to do, no one," said a European Union official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive subject. "But he's totally in a corner, he's crazy … and for him there is no way out. The only way out for him is total victory or total defeat and we are working on the latter one. We need Ukraine to win and so we are working to prevent worst case scenarios by helping Ukraine win." (WP, 10.02.22)
• In Dagestan, a poor Russian region in the north Caucasus that has seen some of the biggest protests against Putin ’s mobilization drive, governor Sergei Melikov knew who to lay the blame on: overzealous local draft officers. “Are you f...ing morons?” Melikov asked in a televised government meeting, reacting to a video showing a police van driving around towns blasting a message ordering all men to report to the draft office. (FT, 10.06.22)
• "I'm worried about Ukraine's continued ability to function as a country," said U.S. Rep. Michael Waltz, fearful it could "become energy-starved.” (NYT, 10.07.22)
• ''It's the Wild West,'' said Olga Torres, a lawyer who represents arms exporters and serves on the federal Defense Trade Advisory Group. ''We are seeing a lot of people who were previously not involved in arms sales getting involved now because they see the opportunity.'' Torres has consulted with a Texas nonprofit that tried to send weapons to Ukraine without realizing it needed U.S. permission. (NYT, 10.07.22)
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov said in his address meant for Russian soldiers in Ukraine: “The Moscow officials and politicians who sent you to war have money and property in the NATO countries that supply us with weapons. Their families are in NATO countries. More recently, they have been doing great in London and Washington. For three hundred years they have not needed Liman, Popasnaya, Kakhovka. They don't even know where they are.” (Media Zone, 10.07.22)
• "In all these months we have heard that half the world is on our side. But neither Modi nor Xi are now supporting this," a Russian official said, referring to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who were seen to be distancing themselves from Putin's war effort during a summit last month in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. (WP, 10.07.22)

 

Footnotes

1. Here and elsewhere italicized text represents contextual commentary by RM staff.