Russia in Review, Sept. 27-Oct. 4, 2024

4 Things to Know

  1. Ukrainian armed forces have abandoned the strategically important town of Vuhledar in the Donetsk region this week. Control of this eastern town is considered important by both sides due to its position on elevated ground and its place at the intersection of the eastern and southern battlefield fronts, giving it added significance for supplying both sides' forces, according to Reuters. Vuhledar’s strategic importance is further heightened by its proximity to a rail line connecting Donbas in the east to Crimea in the south, according to Al Jazeera
  2. When asked by FT what he would propose to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Jens Stoltenberg demurred, then suggested a historical comparison. “Finland fought a brave war against the Soviet Union in ’39. They imposed much bigger costs on the Red Army than expected… The war ended with them giving up 10% of the territory. But they got a secure border,” said Stoltenberg, who served as NATO’s general secretary until Oct. 1.
  3. Russia’s Defense Ministry will soon have the authority to determine whether the conditions for using nuclear weapons are met, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Sept. 29, according to MT. The Russian presidential spokesman said that the amendments to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which were announced by Putin last week and which would liberalize Russia’s conditions for nuclear use as the U.S. deliberates whether to allow Ukraine to use Western-supplied longer-range missiles against targets in Russia, will be legally formalized soon. When asked to comment on Putin’s announcement, his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters at the U.N. in New York, “We expect that those who are interested in our approaches will listen… When it finally becomes clear whether they allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons or not, we will see how they understood what they heard.”
  4. Russia plans to increase state spending on national defense by a quarter in 2025 to 6.3% of GDP, marking a new post-Soviet high, according to draft budget documents published this week and seen by Reuters. Defense spending will rise to 13.5 trillion rubles ($145 billion) next year, according to these documents. Russia lags behind the U.S. and China in terms of defense spending last year, as measured by SIPRI in current dollars and exchange rates. If measured in purchasing power parity terms, however, the gap between the U.S. and Russia in defense spending would be substantially narrower.*

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

  • The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in southern Ukraine lost supply from its only remaining back-up power line before it was restored late on Oct. 2. “The off-site power situation remains a deep source of concern,” IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said in a statement. The disruption “shows that the situation is not improving in this regard, on the contrary.” (Bloomberg, 10.04.24)
  • The head of security at the Zaporizhzhia NPP in Ukraine was killed in a car bombing on Oct. 4, according to Ukrainian and Russian authorities. Andrei Korotky (Andriy Korotkiy) died after a homemade explosive device was planted under his car and detonated when the vehicle began moving, authorities said. Korotky was also the former head of the Moscow-installed local council of deputies in the city of Enerhodar, where the blast occurred. (RFE/RL, 10.04.24)
  • Russian Telegram channels Mash and Shot claimed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to attack the Kursk NPP with missiles and/or drones. However, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not attack the Kursk NPP.  (Istories, 10.03.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

  • No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

  • Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visited Teheran on Sept. 30 to meet with Iranian President Massed Pezeshkian, the Russian government announced. The visit comes ahead of a planned meeting between Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the Oct. 22-24 BRICS summit in the Tatarstan capital of Kazan. Moscow said the visit would focus on enhancing Russian-Iranian trade and economic cooperation, particularly in transport, energy, industry and agriculture. Iran and Russia can step up their bilateral cooperation, especially in countering Western sanctions, Pezeshkian told Mishutin during the meeting.  (MT/AFP, 09.30.24, TASS, 09.30.24) 
  • The European Union is progressing toward a package of sanctions targeting Iran for providing Russia with ballistic missiles, according to people familiar with the matter (Bloomberg, 10.04.24)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

  • Russian soldiers allegedly shot dead 16 Ukrainian prisoners of war in eastern Ukraine, marking the largest known execution of POWs in the two-and-a-half-year war, Ukrainian prosecutors said Oct. 1. Ukraine's prosecutor general’s office said videos circulating on social media appeared to show Russian servicemen committing the war crime near the Donetsk region city of Pokrovsk, which Moscow has been trying to capture for months. The Moscow Times could not independently verify where or when the footage was filmed. (MT/AFP, 10.02.24)
  • No reliable data exist on Roma numbers in Ukraine. Unofficial estimates before the invasion varied from 200,000 to 400,000. Activists and academics reckon that at least half have since fled. Roma have always lived all over the country, but the province of Transcarpathia, of which Uzhhorod is the capital, has traditionally been home to a large community. (The Economist, 10.04.24)
  • For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

  • On Sept. 28, at least nine people were killed and 12 were wounded after Russian airstrikes hit a medical clinic in Ukraine’s northern city of Sumy, local military administration says on Telegram, while a Russian air strike on a private vehicle in the Kharkiv region killed a 61-year-old judge of Ukraine’s Supreme Court, local officials said (Bloomberg, 09.28.24, RFE/RL, 09.28.24)
  • On Sept. 29, Ukraine said it struck a stockpile of weapons in Russia overnight that may have included just-arrived missiles from Iran. In posts on Facebook and X, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claimed to have hit a weapons cache near the town of Kotluban in the Volgograd region, about 600 kilometers (375 miles) from the Ukrainian border. (Bloomberg, 09.29.24)
  • On Sept. 29, more than 100 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Russia, officials said, sparking a wildfire and setting an apartment block alight in one of the largest barrages seen over Russian skies since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Russia's Ministry of Defense reported that it had shot down 125 drones overnight across seven regions. The southwestern region of Volgograd came under particularly heavy fire, with 67 Ukrainian drones reportedly downed by Russian air defenses. Seventeen drones were also seen over Russia's Voronezh region, where falling debris damaged an apartment block and a private home. No casualties were reported. A further 18 drones were reported over Russia's Rostov region, where falling debris sparked a wildfire, said Gov. Vasily Golubev. (BG, 09.29.24)
  • On Sept. 29, 16 civilians were injured in an overnight barrage on the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia. The city was targeted by Russian guide bombs in 10 separate attacks that damaged a high-rise building and several residential homes, regional Governor Ivan Fedorov wrote on his official Telegram channel. More people could still be trapped beneath the rubble, he said. (BG, 09.29.24)
  • Putin on Sept. 30 vowed that Moscow would achieve all the goals it has set for itself in the ongoing war against Ukraine. "The truth is on our side. All goals set will be achieved," Putin said in a video message released to mark the second anniversary of what Russia calls "Reunification Day" — when Moscow annexed four Ukrainian regions despite not having full control over them. (MT/AFP, 09.30.24)
  • Speaking on Sept. 30 Zelenskyy acknowledged the "very, very difficult” situation his military is facing after his air defenses were forced to destroy multiple waves of Russian drones targeting the capital, while Putin used a state holiday to repeat a pledge to achieve his aims in Ukraine. Following a meeting on September 30 with top commanders, Zelenskyy said that "reports on each of our frontline sectors, our capabilities, our future capabilities and our specific tasks: The situation is very, very difficult. “Everything that can be done this autumn, everything that we can achieve must be achieved," he said in his nightly video address. (RFE/RL, 09.30.24)
  • On Oct. 1, Ukrainian prosecutors said at least seven civilians were killed and three others injured in an attack by Russian forces against the southern city of Kherson. Artillery struck near a local market and public transportation stop at around 9 a.m. local time, the regional prosecutor’s office said on its website. (Bloomberg, 10.01.24)
  • On Oct. 1, at least eight people were killed and several wounded in Russian strikes on the Ukrainian regions of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Sumy as the embattled country marked Defenders Day amid an increasingly difficult situation on the battlefield in the east, where Moscow's grinding offensive is making incremental progress. (RFE/RL, 10.01.24
  • On Oct. 2, the Ukrainian military said that it was ordering the last of its forces to retreat from the ruins of Vuhledar, a strategically important mining town that had served as a vital defensive bastion for nearly three years in eastern Ukraine, after it was stormed by Russian troops. On Oct. 1, Russian troops entered Vuhledar and analysts at DeepState showed roughly half of Vuhledar under Russian control. Russia’s Defense Ministry officially confirmed that its forces took control of Vuhledar Oct. 3. (NYT, 10.02.24, Bloomberg, 10.01.24, Bloomberg, 10.03.24, FT, 10.02.24) 
    • Control of Vuhleadar - which Russians long regarded as one of Ukraine's toughest fortified positions to crack - is considered important by both sides because of its position on elevated ground and because it sits at the intersection of the eastern and southern battlefield fronts giving it added significance when it comes to supplying both sides' forces. The capture of this Ukrainian supply hub has long been seen by Moscow as offering a major step towards incorporating the entire Donetsk region. Vuhledar’s strategic importance is further heightened by its proximity to a rail line connecting Crimea to Donbas. (Al Jazeera, 10.02.24, Reuters, 10.02.24)
    • Russian military bloggers expressed doubt that Russian forces would be able to quickly advance from Vuhledar given that cities further north are better fortified, including the logistical hub of Pokrovsk which, if captured, would sever supply lines for Ukrainian troops in the area. (FT, 10.02.24)
  • On Oct. 2, Russian drones again struck Ukraine's Danube port of Izmayil, on the border with Romania, which has been Kyiv's only gateway to exporting its grain and other produce.  Two people, including a Turkish citizen, were wounded in the attack on Izmayil, Oleh Kiper, the governor of the Odesa region, said on Telegram. (RFE/RL, 10.02.24)
    • Romanian authorities issued a drone alert for the public early on Oct. 2 in Tulcea County on the border.  The Romanian Defense Ministry, meanwhile, said NATO scrambled two Spanish F-18 and two Romanian F-16 jets from bases in southeastern Romania to monitor the situation for several hours. (RFE/RL, 10.02.24)
  • On Oct. 2, in the southern Kherson region, a Russian drone strike on a shuttle bus in Antonivka killed one person and wounded another, regional Gov. Oleksandr Prokudin reported on Telegram. Earlier, Russian troops shelled Kharkiv, Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported on Telegram. Private residential buildings and a public garage were damaged, Terekhov said, adding that no injuries had been reported so far. In a similar attack on Derhachi, a small town some 15 kilometers north of Kharkiv, several people were wounded, including a child, Kharkiv Gov. Oleh Synyehubov reported. (RFE/RL, 10.02.24)
  • On Oct. 3, Russian drones and missiles rained down on Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions in the early hours, and as new NATO chief Mark Rutte met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later in the day, air-raid sirens twice blared throughout the capital, underscoring the situation faced by residents of the capital and other regions of the country. (RFE/RL, 10.03.24)
  • On Oct. 3, Ukrainian drones struck the Borisoglebsk aviation center in western Russia’s Voronezh region overnight, Ukrainian media reported, citing anonymous security service sources. The targeted base stored guided aerial bombs, Su-35 and Su-34 fighter jets as well as aviation fuel, according to the UNIAN news agency and the news website liga.net. NASA satellite monitoring showed active fires at multiple locations in the town of Borisoglebsk, including one that matches that of the Borisoglebsk air base. (MT/AFP, 10.03.24)
  • On Oct. 4 Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState wrote in its Telegram channel that the Russian armed forces advanced near Tsukuryn, Katerynivka, Kolesnykivka, and in Toretsk. (RM, 10.04.24)
  • On Oct. 4, Russian shelling killed at least three civilians in four Ukrainian regions as a drone attack set a fuel depot on fire in Russia's Voronezh region, military and regional officials reported. (RFE/RL, 10.04.24)
  • On Oct. 4, Ukraine’s military said its forces struck an oil base in western Russia’s Voronezh region overnight. The Annanefteprodukt fuel storage base in the Voronezh region’s Anninsky district was hit by Ukraine’s SBU security service and other military branches, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.. (MT/AFP, 10.04.24)
  • More than 20,000 soldiers from Russia's Povolzhye -- territories comprising several regions around the Volga River -- have died in Ukraine since the start of Moscow's full-scale invasion of its neighbor, according to calculations from RFE/RL's Idel.Realities, Data from Idel.Realities show Bashkortostan has the highest death toll at just over 3,000, followed by Tatarstan with 2,724 and Perm Krai with 2,296. The fewest losses among the 14 regions of Povolzhye were reported in Penza (461) and Mordovia (307). The data are calculated using reports from relatives of the deceased and official statements. (RFE/RL, 10.02.24)
  • Valery Zaluzhny, while being the commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, was  wounded when a Russian guided artillery munition struck a command post in the Zaporizhzhya direction in 2023. This was revealed by retired general of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Sergey Krivonos, and confirmed by the ex-deputy of the Verkhovna Rada, Borislav Bereza. (RG.ru, 10.04.24)
  • The building of the local FSB department was set on fire in Russia’s Novosibirsk. This was reported by the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense and the Baza Telegram channel. (Meduza, 10.04.24)
  • A Russian court sentenced 13 young men to up to 23 years in prison each on Oct. 2 for acts of railway sabotage in Moscow and Siberia aimed at thwarting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 10.02.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

  • On Oct. 3, Mark Rutte said he will make increased weapons production a priority as he arrived in Kyiv for his first foreign visit as NATO’s new chief. “NATO stands with Ukraine,” Rutte told a joint news conference with Zelenskyy on Oct. 3. “Supporting Ukraine and replenishing our own stocks means increasing industrial production, and that will be a priority for me.” (Bloomberg, 10.03.24)
  • A Patriot missile-defense system donated by NATO member Romania has arrived in Ukraine, the two neighbors announced on Oct. 3. (RFE/RL, 10.03.24)
  • On Sept. 28, a day after former President Donald Trump met with Zelenskyy, his running mate, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, criticized the Ukrainian president Sept. 28 during a campaign stop in Pennsylvania for having toured an ammunition factory in Scranton with the state’s governor, Josh Shapiro, a Democrat. The trip turned out to be a divisive one, as U.S. Republican leaders accused Zelenskyy of siding with the Democratic Party in the upcoming presidential election. Voters in Scranton appeared split along party lines on whether they want Washington to continue a policy of strong military aid for Ukraine. (NYT, 09.28.24, RFE/RL, 10.01.24)
  • German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock expressed support for Ukraine’s request for long-range Taurus cruise missiles, putting herself at odds with Chancellor Olaf Scholz who has ruled out sending the weapons over fears it could trigger direct conflict with Russia. (Bloomberg, 09.30.24)
  • “[S]ince 2022, we have so far supplied Ukraine with billions of dollars' worth of assistance. We will provide more. Putin's resources are not infinite. He has had to double the signing-up fee [to recruit] soldiers. He is running out of tanks. We need to stay the course for another year or two, and then Putin will have to recalculate,” Poland's foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski said in an interview with WP. (WP, 10.03.24)
  • About 300 people want to join the Ukrainian Legion in Poland. This number is insufficient to form a single brigade (typically consisting of 1,000 to 8,000 people), states Poland's Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. (RBC, 10.04.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

  • The European Union took a step towards sanctioning Russia on Oct. 2 for a string of recent hybrid attacks and acts of sabotage across Europe, diplomats said. Ambassadors from the 27-nation EU meeting in Brussels approved creating a new legal framework to impose visa bans and asset freezes on those responsible for the attacks. Once the text is formally signed off on next week the EU can then add the names of specific Russian agents or entities to the blacklist, diplomats said. (MT/AFP, 10.02.24)
  • Insurance companies are trying to delay billions of dollars of claims for hundreds of aircrafts seized in Russia, lawyers for some of world’s top aircraft leasing companies alleged at the start of a London trial. Lessors such as AerCap Holdings NV sued insurers including units of AIG and Lloyd’s after Russia refused to return jets leased to local airlines following the invasion of Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions by Western nations. Russia transferred almost 800 foreign-owned jets to its own aircraft register after contracts were terminated. (Bloomberg, 10.02.24)
  • Europe's physics lab CERN said Sept. 29 that some 500 scientists linked to Russian institutes will be affected when it stops cooperation with Russia in late November as planned. CERN's decision-making body agreed in June 2022 to terminate cooperation agreements with Russia and its ally Belarus over the war in Ukraine. Thus, Belarus's five-year agreement was not renewed when it expired last June 27, and Russia's will not be extended when it ends on Nov. 30, CERN said. (MT/AFP, 09.29.24)
  • A Russian company will export chickpeas and lentils in exchange for tangerines and rice from Pakistan amid difficulties in cross-border payments due to Western sanctions, Tass news service reported. (Bloomberg, 10.01.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

  • “Ukraine still has to decide [when to negotiate]. But we need to make the conditions that make it possible for them to sit down with the Russians and get something which is acceptable . . . something where they survive as an independent nation.” Former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said. When asked what he would propose to Zelenskyy, he demurs, then suggests a historical comparison. “Finland fought a brave war against the Soviet Union in ’39. They imposed much bigger costs on the Red Army than expected,” he says. “The war ended with them giving up 10% of the territory. But they got a secure border.” (FT, 10.04.24)
  • Switzerland's foreign affairs ministry voiced support for a Chinese-led peace plan to end the Ukraine war, saying Sept. 28 that its view on such efforts had significantly changed, a position Kyiv said was disappointing and illogical. (Reuters, 09.28.24)
  • “The war will end when Vladimir Putin stops his aggression against Ukraine. I think Putin will stop when he comes to the conclusion that he cannot win at an acceptable cost. He is not yet at that point,” Poland's foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski said in an interview with WP. (WP, 10.03.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

  • Former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, became the 14th secretary general of NATO on Oct. 1. Rutte told reporters earlier Oct. 1 that he’ll continue to press allies to maintain their support for Ukraine and spend more on defense. He also said that he’s not worried about the outcome of the U.S. election, whether the winner is Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. (Bloomberg, 10.01.24)
    • “There can be no lasting security in Europe without a strong, independent Ukraine,” Rutte said in his first speech on taking office, and he affirmed a commitment made by the organization’s leaders in 2008 that “Ukraine’s rightful place is in NATO.” Rutte did single out China, and particularly Beijing’s support for Putin. “China has become a decisive enabler of Russia’s war in Ukraine. China cannot continue to fuel the largest conflict in Europe since the Second World War without this impacting its interests and reputation,” he said. (The Economist, AP, 10.03.24)
    • Former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, an economist and statistics nerd, knows that Europe has too few weapons, capabilities and troops at high readiness. “We know that we are behind [the Russians],” he says. “I can’t tell you exactly how much it will cost. But I can tell you with certainty that if allies are going to deliver on the capabilities they have promised . . . it will cost much more than 2%, whether it’s 2.5 or 3.” (FT, 10.04.24)
  • NATO members Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland will seek European Union funding to build a network of bunkers, barriers, distribution lines, and military warehouses along their borders with Russia and Belarus, Estonian officials said on September 28. (RFE/RL, 09.28.24)
  • The European Union’s nominee to be its first-ever defense commissioner said the bloc must scale up its military capabilities for a possible confrontation with Russia that could be as few as six years away. Andrius Kubilius, who served twice as Lithuania’s prime minister, said that the EU “must be ready to meet Russia militarily in six to eight years,” adding that the bloc also needs to boost production and bolster its stocks of weapons and ammunition. (Bloomberg, 10.03.24)
  • “If we don't stop Putin now and we allow him to conquer Ukraine, he will come up to the Polish border, and he will be even more dangerous and more difficult to stop. So it's better to do it now,” Poland's foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski said in an interview with WP. (WP, 10.03.24)
  • Canada is working with Nordic countries to create a new Arctic security coalition that would exclude Russia and offer a place to coordinate on defense, intelligence and cyber threats. Security talks among the northern allies are needed because they don’t meet privately at the political level anymore, partly due to Russia’s presence on the Arctic Council, Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said. The Nordics are now all NATO members after Sweden’s accession earlier this year. (Bloomberg, 10.02.24)
  • The United States must prepare for a "long-term" confrontation with Russia that won't end when Putin departs from the political scene, according to a new report by the bipartisan U.S. Helsinki Commission in its Sept. 30 report. Ukraine's defeat of Russia on the battlefield is critical to winning that confrontation, and Washington should do all it can to ensure Kyiv is victorious. The commission, which was set up in 1975 to monitor human rights in the Soviet bloc, is composed of 18 lawmakers evenly split between the House of Representatives and Senate as well as three representatives of the executive branch. (RFE/RL, 09.30.24)
  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz plans to hold his first phone conversation with Putin in nearly two years, the German weekly Die Zeit reported Oct. 1, citing anonymous government sources in Berlin. Although not yet officially requested, sources told Die Zeit that the phone call is being considered ahead of the G20 summit in Brazil this November. The report did not specify what Scholz hopes to discuss with Putin. The Kremlin has not commented on the possibility of talks between the two leaders. (MT/AFP, 10.01.24)
  • Putin unwittingly became the largest catalyst for European Union expansion after his 2022 invasion of Ukraine pushed more countries toward the bloc, Croatia’s prime minister said. (Bloomberg, 09.30.24)
  • The U.S. is concerned Russia may supply missiles to the Houthis in Yemen, an American official said, a move that could stoke further Middle East unrest by strengthening one of the militant groups fighting Israel. (Bloomberg, 09.30.24)
  • During the U.S. vice presidential debate on Oct. 1, Democrat Tim Walz said: “What we've seen out of Vice President Harris is we've seen … a calmness that is able to be able to draw on the coalitions, to bring them together, understanding that our allies matter. When our allies see Donald Trump turn towards Vladimir Putin, turn towards North Korea, when we start to see that type of fickleness around holding the coalitions together, we will stay committed. And as the Vice President said today, is we will protect our forces and our allied forces, and there will be consequences.” (CBS, 10.01.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

  • Vladimir Putin wrote in greetings to Chinese President Xi Jinping on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of Russia-China diplomatic relations: “Today, Russia-China ties are at an all-time high. Our two countries have been proactive in working together on political, trade and economic matters, as well as in science and technology, and a plethora of other domains. We have been effective in coordinating our efforts when dealing with regional and international affairs for building a multipolar world order with greater justice for all. I am confident that fulfilling the bilateral agreements resulting from our latest meetings will contribute to further strengthening the comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation between Russia and the PRC, as well as ensure stability and security on the Eurasian continent and across the world.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.02.24)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov wrote in an article for Rossiyskaya Gazeta on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Russia and China: “We succeeded in building an exemplary model of relations between neighboring great powers rooted in neighborliness, friendship and cooperation. ... Our friendly and unneighborly relations are not a formal alliance, yet their effectiveness surpasses the confrontation-based military-political alliances. ... Today, Russian-Chinese cooperation has evolved to become a comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction on the cusp of a new era. According to our leaders, bilateral relations have soared to an unprecedentedly high level and never stop to be enriched with new content. ... We appreciate China’s balanced and consistent stance on the Ukraine crisis.” (Mid.ru, 10.03.24)
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping on Oct. 2 told Putin he was ready to "expand" cooperation, as the two leaders exchanged congratulations on the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations, state media said. Xi said China was "ready to join Putin to constantly expand all-round pragmatic cooperation between [our] two countries,” state news agency Xinhua said. "Permanent good-neighborly friendship, comprehensive strategic coordination, and mutually beneficial cooperation," Xi told Putin, according to Xinhua. (MT/AFP, 10.02.24)
  • China said its Coast Guard vessels entered the Arctic Ocean for the first time, patrolling the waters jointly with Russian ships on a mission that underscored the growing cooperation between Beijing and Moscow in the region. While not yet officially acknowledged by Russia, the U.S. Coast Guard said two Russian ships and two Chinese vessels were spotted on Sept. 28 passing through the Bering Sea, which separates Russia from Alaska. (Bloomberg, 10.02.24)
  • “Putin would not be able to prosecute this war without components and material from China. So China could shut down this war. And it should,” Poland's foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski said in an interview with WP. (WP, 10.03.24)

Missile defense:

  • No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

  • Russia’s Defense Ministry will soon have the authority to determine whether the conditions for using nuclear weapons are met, the Kremlin said Sept. 29, following announced plans to revise the country’s nuclear doctrine. “This is the prerogative of our specialists, our military, who are closely monitoring the weapons used and how they are being employed,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists. Peskov confirmed that recently announced amendments to Russia’s nuclear doctrine are taking shape and will be legally formalized soon. (MT/AFP, 09.30.24)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in remarks at the General Debate of the 79th Session of the UN General Assembly on September 28: “Today's Anglo-Saxon strategists do not hide their intentions. However, they expect to defeat Russia through ...Kiev regime, however they prepare Europe to fall in this suicidal affair. I will not dwell on the futility and danger of the very idea of trying to fight Russia, a nuclear power, to the bitter end. (MFA.ru, 09.28.24)
  • When asked to “comment on the changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine that President Putin announced recently,” Lavrov said in remarks at the U.N. on Sept. 28: “President Putin said it all. It was clear without any exemptions. When we say something publicly, especially President Putin, we expect that those who are interested in our approaches will listen. How they understand our words is not up to me. When it finally becomes clear whether they allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons or not, we will see how they understood what they heard.” (Mid.ru, 09.28.24)
  • “I think this public talk of nuclear weapons is a means for Russia to intimidate Western public opinion. I don't believe that when they meet in the Kremlin and Putin decides to use nuclear weapons, that his people would say, ‘Oh no, Mr. President, you can't do that, that's not compatible with our doctrine.’ Putin is a dictator. He will be deterred by our strength, not by his own doctrines,” Poland's foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski said in an interview with WP. (WP, 10.03.24)

Counterterrorism:

  • Russia has already made a principal decision to remove the Taliban movement (outlawed in Russia) from its list of organizations designated as terrorist, with certain legal procedures pending, Russian Special Presidential Representative for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov told reporters. (TASS, 10.04.24)
  • Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called on the West to lift sanctions on Taliban-led Afghanistan and take "responsibility" for reconstruction efforts in the country, on Oct. 4. (MT/AFP, 10.04.24)

Conflict in Syria:

  • Strikes reportedly targeted an ammunition depot near Russia's Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia Province, Syria overnight on Oct. 2 to 3. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights claimed that the unknown drone strikes coincided with the presence of Israeli warplanes in the area and that both Syrian and Russian air defenses attempted to shoot down incoming Israeli missiles for roughly 40 minutes. (ISW, 10.03.24)

Cyber security/AI: 

  • The United States expects Russia, Iran and China to continue their attempts to influence the Nov. 5 elections by using artificial intelligence to disseminate fake information, according to a report released on Oct. 2 by the Department of Homeland Security. (RFE/RL, 10.02.24)
  • Russia's attempts to influence the 2024 election in favor of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump are accelerating, federal officials and researchers say, adding to a sea of misinformation about immigration and his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, despite U.S. efforts to blunt the onslaught with indictments, seizures and public warnings. (WP, 10.01.24)
  • The U.S. government and Microsoft have seized 107 websites used by Russian intelligence agents and their proxies in the U.S., according to the Department of Justice and the tech giant. The Justice Department seized 41 internet domains used to commit computer fraud and abuse in the U.S., while Microsoft seized another 66 under a civil action, they said. The domains were used by a group that Microsoft calls Star Blizzard, which the U.S. and allies say works for the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and has been active since at least 2016. (Bloomberg, 10.03.24)
  • U.S. and British authorities for the first time publicly linked an ex-Russian special forces officer to one of the world's most notorious ransomware groupsEduard Bendersky, who served in the elite Vympel unit of the FSB, had been identified as early as 2019 as the father-in-law of Maksim Yakubets, the alleged founder of Evil Corp, whose malware has been used around the world to lock out corporate computer systems in exchange for ransom. On Oct. 1 the U.S. Treasury Department and Britain's National Crime Agency publicly confirmed Bendersky as Yakubets' father-in-law, calling him a "key enabler of Evil Corp." Bendersky leveraged his status and contacts to facilitate Evil Corp's developing relationships with officials of the Russian intelligence services. (RFE/RL, 10.02.24)
  • The West has intensified cyber operations against Russia, FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov claimed at a meeting of the Council of Heads of Security Agencies and Special Services of the Commonwealth of Independent States. (TASS, 10.04.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Russia’s crude shipments rebounded to the most in three months last week on the resumption of normal flows from the country’s main Pacific terminal at Kozmino and a second week of elevated exports from Primorsk on the Baltic. Weekly cargoes rose by about 850,000 barrels a day, to the highest since the end of June. Four-week average crude volumes, which are less volatile, climbed to 3.26 million barrels a day in the week to Sept. 29, up by 160,000 from the previous period. (Bloomberg, 10.01.24)
  • The Russian state’s oil revenue showed slight annual growth in September, as the government offset weaker energy prices by halving monthly subsidies to the nation’s crude producers. The Russian budget received a total of 597.2 billion rubles ($6.28 billion) from its oil industry last month, up nearly 4% from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said on Oct. 3. (Bloomberg, 10.03.24)
  • Russia’s own data show its crude production in September fell just below its monthly target under the OPEC+ deal, according to people familiar with figures from the country’s Energy Ministry. Improved compliance with production cuts has become a focus for OPEC+, with an online meeting of ministers earlier on Oct. 2 focusing on how members including Russia will compensate for previously exceeding their quotas. (Bloomberg, 10.02.24)
  • Russian natural gas output rose almost 9% during the first nine months of this year, putting it on track to meet a government target but still far short of levels before the invasion of Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 10.02.24)

Climate change:

  • No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

  • No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

  • During the U.S. vice presidential debate on Oct. 1, Republican JD Vance said: “But we have to remember that for years in this country, Democrats protested the results of elections. Hillary Clinton in 2016 said that Donald Trump had the election stolen by Vladimir Putin because the Russians bought, like, $500,000 worth of Facebook ads.” (CBS, 10.01.24) Neither candidate made any mention of Ukraine, Kyiv or Zelenskyy.
  • Stephen Hubbard, a 72-year-old U.S. citizen, has pleaded guilty in a Moscow court to charges of mercenary activity for receiving money to fight for Ukraine against invading Russian forces, Russian state-run media reported, which his family members immediately questioned. The prosecution said Hubbard agreed to fight for Ukraine for $1,000 a month and allegedly received training, weapons and ammunition. A Moscow court will hand down its verdict and sentence on Oct. 7. Hubbard was detained by Russian soldiers on April 2, 2022. (RFE/RL, 09.30.24, RFE/RL, 10.03.24)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

  • The consolidated budget surplus of the Russian Federation in January-August increased to 1.77 trillion rubles ($18.6 billion), according to the Federal Treasury of Russia. (Interfax, 10.04.24)
  • The National Welfare Fund of Russia on October 1 comprised 12 trillion 787 billion 132.6 million rubles (equivalent to $137.9 billion), or 6.7% of GDP, forecast for 2024, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation reported. (Interfax, 10.04.24)
  • Russia’s manufacturing sector contracted in September for the first time in two and a half years, following 28 consecutive months of growth since May 2022, according to S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) published Oct. 1. It marked the first drop in output since July 2022, while new orders contracted after 27 months of growth. The pace of job losses, meanwhile, was the fastest since October 2022. (MT/AFP, 10.01.24)
  • Russia's federal budget for 2025–2027 submitted by the government to the State Duma could contribute to higher-than-expected inflation, analysts at Renaissance Capital warned Oct. 1. (MT/AFP, 10.02.24)
  • Putin appears to be using the "Time of Heroes" veteran support program to militarize regional and local government administrations and further solidify a pro-war ideology into the Russian state and society. Putin met with former Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) “Sparta” Battalion Commander and Speaker of the DNR Parliament Artem Zhoga on Oct. 2, and offered him the position of Presidential Representative to the Ural Federal Okrug, which Zhoga accepted. (ISW, 10.03.24)
  • Authorities in St. Petersburg forced the cancelation of an annual Holocaust commemoration event scheduled for this weekend, citing Covid-19 restrictions, the Jewish Community Center of St. Petersburg announced on social media. This marks the first official ban on the mourning ceremony in the 32 years since it has been held in the municipality of Pushkin, including during pandemic lockdowns in 2020, according to the Telegram news channel Astra. (MT/AFP, 10.01.24)
  • Wildberries, Russia’s largest online retailer, has successfully merged with the outdoor advertising firm Russ Group, CEO Tatyana Kim announced Oct. 1, following a bitter feud with her co-founder and ex-husband. Independent business news outlet The Bell suggested the merger could be part of Russia’s wartime redistribution of assets, benefiting business figures linked to the Kremlin. (MT/AFP, 10.01.24)
  • Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny, who died in prison in February, might have been poisoned, the Insider investigative group said, citing official documents that appear to have been edited to conform with the state's contention he died from cardiac issues. According to a report by the Insider, published on Sept. 29, the group obtained two variants of official documents on the decision not to launch a probe into Navalny's death in February. Both documents were issued on July 26, 2024, and the text in one, the Insider said, appears to have been amended and now complies with the official explanation for the anti-corruption crusader's death. Navalny's widow, Yulia Navalnaya, has said that her husband "in the last minutes of his life, complained of having a sharp pain in his stomach," while Navalny's associates have said he was killed in prison most likely on the Kremlin's command, which the Kremlin has vehemently denied. (RFE/RL, 09.30.24)
    • Investigator of Russia’s Investigative Committee Alexander Varapaev – who investigated the death of Navalny—initially “worked on” poisoning as the main cause of Navalny’s death, the Russian Telegram channel “VChK-OGPU” reported. This follows from the fact that he ordered numerous “swabs” to be taken, including “from the hands of all prisoners with whom Navalny could have come into contact; from the hands of prison staff; from door handles and tables that Navalny touched; from objects in the visiting room and cells where Navalny was,” as well as snow samples from the courtyard where the politician was walking. In addition, when ordering the examination, the security official noted that a specialist “with special knowledge in the field of chemistry” was required. (Istories, 10.04.24)
  • Four independent Russian journalists went on trial Oct. 2 for “extremism” charges related to their alleged work for late opposition activist Alexei Navalny’s team. Antonina Favorskaya, Konstantin Gabov, Sergei Karelin and Artyom Kriger, who have all reported on Navalny as journalists, were detained this spring and summer on charges of “participating in an extremist community.” (MT/AFP, 10.02.24)
  • Russia has opened a criminal case against opposition politician Lev Shlosberg for allegedly failing to comply with restrictions on “foreign agents.” The charges came after authorities searched Shlosberg’s apartment, as well as the home of his 95-year-old father, on Oct. 2. The politician was released following police questioning. Shlosberg, one of the few anti-war voices remaining in Russia, faces up to two years in prison if convicted. (MT/AFP, 10.02.24)
  • Russia’s state financial watchdog Rosfinmonitoring added Armen Aramyan, editor and co-founder of the independent youth Magazine DOXA, to the country’s list of “terrorists and extremists,” the outlet reported Oct. 1. He currently resides outside of Russia, where DOXA was designated an “undesirable” organization earlier this year. (MT/AFP, 10.01.24)
  • Three journalists working for independent Russian media outlets were arrested in Moscow late Sept. 30 outside a concert celebrating the Kremlin's claimed annexation of Ukrainian regions, the human rights watchdog OVD-Info said. Citing the detainees' relatives, OVD-Info said one of the journalists worked at the news website Republic and the other two for SOTAvision. (MT/AFP, 10.01.24)
  • Russia's FSB on Oct. 1 announced the arrests of nearly 40 individuals, including teenagers, accused of supporting "Ukrainian terrorist" groups. The law enforcement body accused them of "inciting children and adolescents to commit violent acts against representatives of state bodies, classmates and teachers." (MT/AFP, 10.01.24)
  • A court in Moscow on Oct. 3 sentenced a 59-year-old nurse to eight years in prison for social media posts opposing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Olga Menshikh was accused of spreading “fake” information about the military with two VKontakte posts. Menshikh denied her guilt, with Mediazona reporting she had 15 followers and that her account may have been breached. (MT/AFP, 10.03.24)

Defense and aerospace:

  • Russia is hiking state spending on national defense by a quarter in 2025 to 6.3% of GDP, the highest levels since the Cold War, according to draft budget documents published this week. Defense spending will rise to 13.5 trillion rubles ($145 billion) in 2025, the fourth year of what Russia calls "a special military operation" in Ukraine, up 25% from the 2024 level. Defense spending will account for 32% of total 2025 budget expenditure of 41.5 trillion rubles. (Reuters, 09.30.24, FT, 09.30.24, NYT, 09.30.24)
  • Russia’s Defense Ministry plans to enlist 133,000 young men for mandatory military service this fall and winter, according to a decree signed by Putin on Sept. 30. Along with the 150,000 men drafted in the spring, the Russian military will have conscripted 283,000 men by the end of 2024. (MT/AFP, 09.30.24)
  • The Russian authorities have allocated 90 billion rubles for one-time payments for concluding a contract with the Ministry of Defense. This is indicated in the draft federal budget expenditures for 2025–2027. The allocated sum will be enough to recruit 225,000 new contract soldiers in three years. (Istories, 10.04.24)
  • Russia’s Defense Ministry plans to enlist around 20,000 people currently held in pre-trial detention to fight in Ukraine, the investigative news outlet IStories reported Oct. 1, citing anonymous military and legal sources. According to a military official who spoke to IStories, efforts are already underway to identify who among the thousands of defendants awaiting trial might be fit for military service, with “40% expected to be taken.” (MT/AFP, 10.01.24)
    • The Russian authorities plan to use new legislation to send approximately 40 percent of criminal defendants to fight in the war in Ukraine, the independent outlet iStories reported on Tuesday. (Meduza, 10.01.24)
  • See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

  • The operation to blow up pagers and radios of Hezbollah members in Lebanon has shown that such electronics can be used to assassinate government officials, said FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov. Bortnikov called such actions "a direct threat to the security of the CIS countries." (Meduza, 10.04.24)\
  • A Moscow court on September 30 sentenced Aleksandr Permyakov to life in prison after finding him guilty of attempting to murder pro-Kremlin writer and political activist Zakhar Prilepin. Permyakov was also ordered to pay 700,000 rubles ($7,600) fine. (RFE/RL, 09.30.24)
  • Nikita Zhuravel, a Russian political prisoner who was beaten by the teenage son of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov while in pretrial detention, has been charged with high treason. The new charge stems from allegations that in March 2023, Zhuravel, 20, sent a video to a representative of Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) that reportedly contained footage of military equipment being transported by train, images of military aircraft, and details of a service vehicle's movements. Under Russian law, treason can result in a life sentence. (RFE/RL, 10.03.24)
  • Russian authorities continue to arrest Russian officials on charges related to mismanagement and corruption within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). The Russian Investigative Committee announced on Oct. 2 that it placed former MoD Forestry Department Deputy Head Alexander Sluchak under house arrest and detained the General Director of “Translesstroy” LLC Ozman Avdolyan for embezzling 20 million rubles (about $210,248) related to the mismanagement of MoD contracts. (ISW, 10.03.24)
  • Russian law enforcement agencies have opened a criminal case against the creators of the Universal Anonymous Payment System (UAPS) and the cryptocurrency exchange Cryptex. UAPS and other anonymous payment systems are believed to provide money transfer and laundering services directly to cybercriminals, while Cryptex gives its users anonymity by allowing them to register without providing personal details needed to meet know-your-customer compliance requirements. (MT/AFP, 10.02.24)
  • An explosion and an ensuing fire at a gas station in Russia's Daghestan region on Sept. 27 has killed 13 people, including two children, and injured 11, Russia's Emergencies Ministry reported Sept. 28. (RFE/RL, 09.28.24)

     

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • The Kremlin on Oct. 2 expressed worry over the latest escalation in the Middle East, calling on "all sides" to show "restraint" after Israel vowed to make Iran "pay" for firing a barrage of missiles at its territory. "This situation is developing according to the most worrying scenario," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. "We call all sides toward restraint… and we condemn any acts that could lead to the death of the civilian population." Russia condemned the attacks and urged Israel to pull its troops out of southern Lebanon on Oct. 1. (MT/AFP, 10.02.24)
    • Russia condemned Israel on Sept. 28 for killing Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, urging an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon as Moscow's foreign minister suggested an effort was underway to drag Washington into a regional war. Nasrallah, who headed Iranian-backed Hezbollah for more than three decades, died in a bombardment targeting the group's headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut late Sept. 29. Israel would "bear full responsibility" for the "tragic" consequences the killing would have for the region, the foreign ministry said in a statement. (MT/AFP, 09.29.24)
    • At the U.N. in New York, where an annual gathering of leaders has been dominated by the Lebanon crisis, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he was "particularly concerned" by the resurgence of political killings—including Nasrallah's. (MT/AFP, 09.29.24)
    • Russia has evacuated 60 diplomats’ family members from Lebanon as Israel escalates its offensive against Hezbollah, the state-run TASS news agency reported Oct. 3. The Emergency Services Ministry’s press service told TASS that the evacuation was being carried out on Putin’s orders. The evacuation flight did not include other Russian citizens in Lebanon, according to the state-run Rossiiskaya Gazeta newspaper. (MT/AFP, 10.03.24)
  • Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico said he would be ready to restore “normal” relations with Russia if the Russian-Ukrainian war ends during the mandate of the current Slovak government. “If the war ends during the mandate of this government (that is, until 2027 — Meduza’s note), I will do everything to restore economic and normal relations with the Russian Federation. The European Union needs Russia, Russia needs the European Union,” Fico said at a press conference on Oct. 3. (Meduza, 10.04.24)
  • Angola’s state-owned diamond producer said some clients were deterred by its partnership with Russia’s Alrosa PJSC, but underlined that its output doesn’t fall under western sanctions. Russian diamond giant Alrosa holds a 41% stake in Angola’s Catoca operation, which also owns just over half of the Luele mine. (Bloomberg, 10.04.24)
  • A Dutch citizen has been detained in Moscow after striking a police officer in the face following a disagreement over a knocked-down road sign, Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported Oct. 4. (RFE/RL, 10.04.24)

Ukraine:

  • Energy minister German Galushchenko has come under fire for delaying by two years efforts to decentralize power generation so it is less vulnerable to Russian attacks. The energy ministry started taking steps towards building smaller power stations only this summer, with the government announcing cheap loans to attract investors in these projects. (FT, 09.30.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • Moldovan police carried out dozens of raids Oct. 3 after discovering that at least $15 million was transferred from Russia to Moldovan citizens in an "unprecedented" effort to tamper with presidential elections this month. Officials accused the Kremlin of waging a hybrid war to keep the former Soviet republic within its orbit as the nation prepares for an Oct. 20 presidential election and a referendum on joining the European Union. (MT/AFP, 10.03.24, Bloomberg, 10.03.24)
  • Kazakhstan is in talks with China about increasing gas exports and is even considering building an additional pipeline to boost flows, underscoring the growing significance of its role in the region’s fuel market. (Bloomberg, 09.30.24)
  • Nine Georgian NGOs have been added to the country's register of "foreign agents," marking the first time since a controversial law on foreign influence came into effect two months ago that additions have been made to the list. Five NGOs initially were added on Oct. 1. Shortly afterward, four other organizations were added. The names of these organizations, along with their financial disclosures, have been published on the official website of Georgia's public registry of foreign agents. (RFE/RL, 10.01.24)
  • Georgia signed a wide-ranging anti-LGBTQ+ bill into law Oct. 3, its speaker of parliament said. The legislation, introduced by the governing Georgian Dream party, bans same-sex marriage, adoption by same-sex couples, gender-affirming care and changing one’s gender on identity documents and depictions of LGBTQ+ people in media. (Politico, 10.03.24)
  • In the regional capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, satellite imagery reveals hundreds of incidents of what appears to be ransacking across the city of Khankendi, known as Stepanakert to Armenians. The vast majority of debris piles can be seen directly adjacent to empty residential tower blocks and civilian homes. (Bellingcat, 09.27.24)
  • Vidadi Isgandarli, an Azerbaijani dissident, died on Oct. 1 in France in what his family claim was an assassination ordered by the Azerbaijan dictatorship. Isgandarli died in a hospital in Mulhouse after being stabbed at his home on Sept. 29 by unidentified individuals. He sustained 24 stab wounds in the attack. (BNE, 10.03.24)
  • Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin attended meeting of the Eurasian Economic Forum in Yerevan on Oct. 1. The group consists of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan. and Russia. (RFE/RL, 09.29.24, Gazeta.ru, 10.01.24)
  • A teacher in Tashkent was fined 6.8 million soms ($534) for hitting a sixth-grade student who asked why she did not speak Russian during a Russian-language class in a viral video of the incident. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Sept. 25 that Russia had requested official explanations from Uzbekistan. In response, Alisher Qodirov, deputy chairman of Uzbekistan's parliament, said that Russia should focus on its own issues rather than interfering in Uzbekistan’s internal affairs. (RFE/RL, 10.01.24)
  • The Belarusian State Security Committee helped identify terrorist plots targeting senior Russian officers, the head of Russia’s FSB, Alexander Bortnikov, said at a meeting of the Council of Heads of National Security Enforcement Agencies and Special Services of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) underway in Astana. (TASs, 10.04.24)

 

IV. Quotable and notable

  • No significant developments.

 

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo is AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka.