6 Things to Know

1. In the largest land grab in post-WWII Europe, Vladimir Putin signed off on laying a formal claim to the territories of Ukraine’s Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russia and its separatist allies in these four regions—with whose leaders Putin signed “accession treaties” in the Kremlin on Sept. 30—do not entirely control any of these four provinces, which constitute more than 19% of Ukraine’s land area and which would constitute less than 1% of Russia’s land area, but Putin aims to attain such control. “This is comparable to Austria and Belgium combined,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said of Putin’s claims to the territory. Ukraine, its Western allies and even some of Russia’s allies, such as Kazakhstan, have refused to recognize the annexation, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky calling for Ukraine’s membership in NATO, while the U.S. and its allies pledged more sanctions on Russia and more assistance to Ukraine.
2. Western countries are watching Russia for early signs of preparing a nuclear strike on Ukraine and preparing for the aftermath. Western countries are making contingency plans should Putin act on his hints that he may resort to nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the latest of which he dropped in his Sept. 30 annexation speech, vowing to defend “our land with all the forces.” U.S. and allied intelligence agencies are also stepping up efforts to detect any Russian military moves that might signal the pending use of nuclear weapons, U.S. officials told Newsweek. Should Putin resort to a nuclear strike in Ukraine, the West will be unlikely to retaliate in kind, rather relying on conventional military resources for the response, Western officials told FT. It should be noted that most of Putin’s saber-rattling since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 adheres to the largely defensive language on the use of nuclear weapons in Russia’s 2014 Military Doctrine and its 2020 policy on nuclear deterrence.
3. The Biden administration announces $1 billion more in military aid to Ukraine, but support in Congress for continued aid may be waning. The Biden administration has announced an additional $1.1 billion in military aid to Ukraine, including funding for about 18 HIMARS, and has also decided to provide NASAMS, according to Zelensky. At the same time widespread support in Congress for pumping aid to Ukraine is starting to show signs of fracturing as Republicans in the House question whether the money would be better spent combating China, WSJ reported.
4. A majority of voters in the U.S. want a negotiated end to the Russian-Ukrainian war, as do almost half of Russians. A poll conducted in mid-September by Data for Progress in the U.S. for the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, shows that 57% of likely American voters support U.S. negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and 59% of such voters believe the U.S. has a leading role to play in negotiating such an end. Meanwhile, the share of Russians who believe their country should pursue peace negotiations has grown (44% in August, 48% in September) to overtake the share of those who prefer continuing the war (48% in August, 44% in September), according to the Levada Center.
5. Russian forces are being encircled in the key town of Lyman on Sept. 30 as the Ukrainian military sought to deal a major setback to Putin’s military campaign in their country on the day the Russian autocrat trumpeted annexing parts of this and three other Ukrainian provinces. The encirclement of this Donetsk region town has been acknowledged by pro-war sources on the Russian side, such as the ex-defense minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, Igor Girkin. Editors of the pro-Russian telegram channel Rybar acknowledged on Sept. 30 that Ukrainian forces were close to encircling Lyman. Ukraine’s DeepState published a map on Sept. 27 which claims to show the semi-circle Ukrainian units have formed around Lyman, which if taken, will entail the loss of a “critical railway juncture” for the Russian side, while also enabling Ukrainian units to then threaten Russian positions in the key towns of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk in the nearby Luhansk region.  
6. Putin’s “partial” mobilization progresses even as thousands protest and/or flee Russia. Russian military authorities were reported late this week to have already conscripted 100,000 out of 300,000 Russians whom Putin has ordered to be called up as part of what the Kremlin claims is a “partial mobilization” to reinforce Russian units fighting in Ukraine. Not all the potential conscripts and their relatives welcomed the mobilization, with 2,500 arrested for participating in anti-draft protests across Russia and thousands more were reported to be trying to escape from Russia to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Mongolia and other countries. There were also reports of attacks on military enlistment offices across Russia, with one senior enlistment official shot by a conscript. In all, more than 50 military enlistment offices and administrative buildings have been targeted by arsonists in Russia since the beginning of the war, according to Meduza.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Tehran received a new signal from the United States that the "will and goodwill" exist in Washington to reach an agreement to replace the JCPOA. (RFE/RL, 09.25.22)
• Iran's demand that IAEA close its investigations into its alleged past undeclared nuclear activity is the last "huge obstacle" to restoring the JCPOA, a senior European diplomat said. (Axios, 09.29.22)
• Iran's Foreign Ministry has said Tehran will give "an appropriate" response to Ukraine's decision to downgrade diplomatic ties over the reported supply of Iranian drones to Russia. (RFE/RL, 09.24.22)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• In Odesa, an attack by an Iranian-made drone on Sept. 25 killed one person, officials said, while throughout the weekend drones buzzed above the city, antiaircraft guns boomed and videos of frightened residents staring up at the sky circulating on social media. (NYT, 09.25.22)
• Reports say Russia has already begun rounding up men in occupied parts of southern and eastern Ukraine to compel them to fight their countrymen. The Geneva Conventions forbid occupation forces from compelling the local population to enlist in the occupier's armed forces. (RFE/RL, 09.26.22)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has provided guarantees to Russian soldiers who surrender to Ukrainian forces and called on Russians to dodge their country's recent partial military mobilization. (RFE/RL, 09.25.22)
• The head of the regional military administration in Ukraine's Kharkiv region, Oleh Synyehubov, says 436 bodies, including 30 with signs of torture, were exhumed from a mass burial site near the eastern city of Izyum. (RFE/RL, 09.23.22)
• U.S. President Joe Biden said on Sept. 27 that a maximum of 125,000 people could be admitted into the United States as refugees during the next 12 months, continuing to pursue his campaign pledge to open the country to more displaced people from around the world. (NYT, 09.29.22)
• At least 25 people have been killed and 50 wounded in a Russian missile attack that hit a convoy of civilian vehicles near the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia on Sept. 30, Ukraine's prosecutor-general said. (RFE/RL, 09.30.22)
• Russian forces have detained Ukrainian prisoners of war in horrible conditions, subjecting them to beatings and denying them food to the point where many became severely undernourished, according to Andriy Yusov, who represents the intelligence department in Ukraine’s defense ministry. (NYT, 09.29.22)

Geopolitical aspects of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sept. 30 signed decrees, which the Kremlin calls "accession treaties," to formally seize Ukraine’s Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. The Russian leader opened the ceremony with an anti-Western speech blasting the United States and Europe for actions spanning hundreds of years—including slavery, colonization and the use of nuclear weapons, accusing Kyiv’s “real masters” of trying to “destroy” Russia. In his 37-minute speech, Putin again hinted Russia may resort to nuclear weapons, vowing to defend “our land with all the forces.” He also called on Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war. (RFE/RL, 09.30.22, MT/AFP, 09.30.22, FT, 09.30.22, RM, 09.30.22.)
  • Zelensky responded to Putin’s speech on Sept. 30 by announcing that he was fast-tracking his country’s application to the NATO alliance. In a video, he accused the Kremlin of trying to “steal something that does not belong to it” and of wanting to “rewrite history and redraw borders with murders, torture, blackmail and lies.” “Ukraine will not allow that,” he said. Earlier Kyiv said on Sept. 28 that Moscow-orchestrated votes on becoming part of Russia held in four Ukrainian regions partially controlled by Moscow were "null and worthless.” (RFE/RL, 09.28.22, NYT, 09.30.22)
  • “The United States condemns Russia’s fraudulent attempt today to annex sovereign Ukrainian territory. Russia is violating international law, trampling on the United Nations Charter, and showing its contempt for peaceful nations everywhere," Biden said in a statement. Biden promised that the U.S., along with its allies and partners, would not let any support for Putin's land grab go unpunished. (ABC, 09.30.22)
  • Group of Seven foreign ministers said they would “never recognize” Russia’s annexation move, “nor the sham ‘referenda’ conducted at gunpoint,” while European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said: “Territories illegally occupied by Russian invaders are Ukrainian land and will always be part of this sovereign nation.” (Al Jazeera, 09.30.22)
  • “Putin has mobilized hundreds of thousands of more troops, engaged in irresponsible nuclear saber rattling and now illegally annexed more Ukrainian territory. Together, this represents the most serious escalation since the start of the war,” Stoltenberg told reporters. (Al Jazeera, 09.30.22)
  • Prior to Putin’s speech, Russian authorities claimed that voters in four Russian-occupied provinces of southern and eastern Ukraine had overwhelmingly agreed to their regions joining Russia, according to referendums regarded as sham plebiscites by Kyiv and its Western partners. The ballots showed support in Luhansk at 98%, Zaporizhzhia at 93% and Kherson at 87% after a full count, Russian state news agency Ria Novosti reported. In Donetsk, approval was 99 %. (FT, 09.29.22) Note the outlier.¹
  • Before Putin’s Sept. 30 address, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the talk of nuclear escalation “irresponsible” and declined to say whether attacks on the annexed territories may meet the standard for using the weapons set out in Russia’s military doctrine. (Bloomberg, 09.30.22)
  • In an apparent sign of the hastiness of the latest moves, Peskov said he wasn’t immediately able to say whether Russia will be annexing all of the territory of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions or just the areas held by its troops. He said the agreements Sept. 30 will cover the full areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, though Ukraine still controls parts of those. (Bloomberg, 09.30.22)
  • Putin is laying claim to about 15% of Ukraine’s land area, making the move the largest forced annexation in Europe since World War II. “This is comparable to Austria and Belgium combined. Or Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands combined. Or 30% of Germany,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said in a statement. “Russia tries to rewrite the map of Europe.” (Bloomberg, 09.30.22)
  • Kazakhstan will not recognize the results of so-called referendums organized by Moscow on Ukraine’s territories occupied by Russian troops. Kazakh Foreign Ministry spokesman Aibek Smadiyarov said on Sept. 26. (RFE/RL, 09.26.22)

Military and guerilla aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

For news on Russia’s “partial mobilization” and its impact, see the Defense and aerospace section below.

• Widespread support in Congress for pumping aid to Ukraine is starting to show signs of fracturing as many Republicans in the House question whether the money would be better spent combating China and tackling economic problems facing the U.S., according to a dozen lawmakers and congressional staff from both parties. (WSJ, 09.24.22)
• Advanced weapons such as Western-made jet fighters aren't under consideration for supplying to Ukraine for the short term, U.S. Air Force officials said. (WSJ, 09.24.22)
• Putin has thrust himself more directly into strategic planning for the war in Ukraine in recent weeks, American officials said, including rejecting requests from his commanders on the ground that they be allowed to retreat from the vital southern city of Kherson. (NYT, 09.24.22)
• Zelensky has said that Biden's administration had already decided to provide Ukraine with sophisticated air-defense systems known as NASAMS. (RFE/RL, 09.25.22)
• Russia struck the Pechenihy dam on the Siverskiy Donets River in northeast Ukraine on Sept. 21-22, using short-range ballistic missiles or similar weapons. (RFE/RL, 09.24.22)

• More than $12 billion in Ukraine-related aid will be included as part of stopgap spending bill that would fund the federal government into mid-December, a person familiar with the legislation said Sept. 26. (AP, 09.27.22)
• According to Important Stories, the Russian army lost from 35% to 67% of all its combat-ready tanks and from 12% to 27% of armored vehicles. Russia lost 7% to 28% of artillery pieces. In addition, the war with Ukraine weakened Russia's air force: the country lost 4% to 17% of all its aircraft and 3% to 15% of its helicopters. (Vazhnye Istorii, 09.29.22)
• The United States will provide an additional $1.1 billion in military aid to Ukraine, including funding for about 18 HIMARS and other weapons to counter drones. HIMARS rocket systems have been critical to Kyiv’s efforts to retake territory. (RFE/RL, 09.28.22, FT, 09.29.22) If U.S.-made HIMARS, which were developed in the 1990s, proved to be crucial to Ukraine’s efforts to retake territory, then what does it tell us about the outcome of decades of Russian armed forces’ preparation for the conventional stage of a hypothetical conflict with the U.S. and its allies in Europe?
• Russian-imposed authorities in Ukraine's Kherson region said on Sept. 30 that the Moscow-appointed deputy governor of the partially occupied region, Alexei Katerinichev, was killed in a Ukrainian missile strike. (RFE/RL, 09.30.22)
• The ex-defense minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic Igor Girkin acknowledged on Sept. 30 that “one can say” that pro-Russian and Russian forces in the town of Lyman in Ukraine’s Donetsk region “has been encircled” by the Ukrainian forces on the day Putin announced the “ascent” of this and three other regions of Ukraine into Russia. Pro-Russian telegram channel, Rybar, acknowledged the retreat of Russian and separatist forces from Drobysheve and Yampil, to the north and south of Lyman, respectively, and stated that Ukrainian forces were close to encircling Lyman as of Sept. 30. Ukraine’s OSINT group, DeepState, published a map on Sept. 27, which it claims shows the semi-circle Ukrainian units have formed around Lyman. If taken, it will entail the loss of a “critical railway juncture” for the Russian side, while enabling Ukrainian units to then threaten Russian positions in the key towns of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk in the nearby Luhansk region. (RM, 09.30.22) Russian forces claimed control of Lyman in late May. The Ukrainian armed forces’ effort to encircle and take Lyman this week probably has multiple military and political objectives. Among them is to deal a major setback to the spectacle in the Kremlin on Sept. 30 meant to celebrate the “entry” of four regions of Ukraine into Russia, including the Donetsk region.

Punitive measures related to Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The OECD says Russia's war in Ukraine will have a greater impact on the global economy than previously expected. The OECD said on Sept. 26 that it had slashed its growth forecast for the global economy to 2.2 % in 2023 from a previous estimate of 2.8 %. (RFE/RL, 09.26.22)
• U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said there would be new announcements within the coming days of new economic sanctions from the Group of 7 nations against Russia—including on Russian entities operating in other countries—in response to Moscow's “sham” referendums in portions of Ukraine it is occupying. (NYT, 09.25.22)
• The United Kingdom has announced 92 new sanctions in response to Russia-backed authorities imposing "sham referendums" in four regions of Ukraine, saying the move "is a clear violation of international law, including the U.N. charter." (RFE/RL, 09.26.22)
• The EU is proposing a new sanctions package hitting 7 billion euros of Russian exports and banning the sale to Russia of new technologies. The EU is to implement a price cap on Russian oil and widen the range of products covered by export bans. Brussels’ eighth package of sanctions against Moscow will also include a ban on EU individuals serving on boards of Russian state-owned enterprises and new measures targeting individuals involved in the war. Brussels will also extend legal grounds for asset freeze and export bans by adding sanctions evasion to the list of reasons for penalizing individuals. Von der Leyen said the Commission estimated the package would reduce Russian revenues by €7 billion annually. (FT, 09.28.22, WSJ, 09.28.22, RFE/RL, 09.27.22, Bloomberg, 09.30.22)
• German police have searched the superyacht Dilbar, the world's biggest yacht by tonnage, believed to be owned by Alisher Usmanov. The search conducted on Sept. 27 was part of investigations of Usmanov's alleged tax evasion, money-laundering and violations of EU sanctions. (RFE/RL, 09.27.22)
• One of Tajikistan's largest banks, Dushanbe City Bank, has suspended operations of Russia's Mir payment cards in the country. (RFE/RL, 09.27.22)
• Three Turkish state banks plan to exit Russia’s Mir payments system over U.S. warnings of sanctions: Turkiye Halk Bankası, TC Ziraat Bankası and Turkiye Vakıflar Bankasi. (MT/AFP, 09.28.22)
• Consumer price in Germanys rose 10.9% in the year through September, much higher than expected, driven by high energy and food prices. It was the highest rate of inflation Germany has seen since 1951. (NYT, 09.29.22)
• The United States and its allies are preparing to impose fresh sanctions on Russia in the wake of what the West and United Nations have called "sham" referendums in four Ukrainian regions. (RFE/RL, 09.29.22)
• Apple on Sept. 28 confirmed that it removed popular Russian social network VKontakte from its App Store globally due to sanctions imposed by Britain. (MT/AFP, 09.29.22)
• The U.S. has charged Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska with violating sanctions by, among other things, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to arrange to have his partner, Ekaterina Olegovna Voronina, flown to the U.S. twice to give birth to his children. According to the Justice Department indictment, Deripaska also allegedly retained luxury U.S. properties and conducted financial transactions. The indictment also accused two alleged collaborators of Deripaska—U.S. citizen Olga Shriki and Russian national Natalia Mikhaylovna Bardakova—with conspiring to violate U.S. sanctions imposed on the oligarch and his private investment company Basic Element. Shriki in 2019 helped arrange the sale of a California music studio owned by Deripaska via several shell companies that fetched more than $3 million, which she attempted to transfer into an account owned by one of the oligarch’s companies, the DoJ said. (RFE/RL, 09.30.22, MT/AFP, 09.30.22, FT, 09.29.22)
• Aluminum prices rose by 8% on Sept. 29 as traders fretted about supply shortages after the London Metal Exchange announced that it was considering banning new Russian metals from entering the market. Russia accounts for about 20% of global nickel production outside China, and 13% of aluminum production outside China. (FT, 09.29.22)
• The U.S. sanctioned Russia central bank head Elvira Nabiullina and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak in response to Putin’s annexation of territory in eastern Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 09.30.22, MT/AFP, 09.26.22)
• Finland said on Sept. 26 that more Russians entered the country over the weekend than in any other this year. Finland's border with Russia was closed to Russians with tourist visas Sept. 30, curtailing one of the last easily accessible routes to Europe for Russians trying to flee a military mobilization aimed at bolstering the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. (AP, 09.30.22)
• The Biden administration is enacting a round of new sanctions on Russia on Sept. 30. The Treasury and Commerce Departments will impose sanctions and export controls on any companies, institutions or people who “provide political or economic support to Russia for its purported annexation,” White House officials said. The Treasury Department is also enacting sanctions against 14 international companies for supporting supply chains of the Russian military and putting nearly 300 members of the Parliament on a sanctions list. And it is listing Elvira Nabiullina, the governor of the Central Bank of Russia, and Olga Skorobogatova, the first deputy governor of the bank, as well as relatives of members of the National Security Council. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak was also sanctioned. The State Department is imposing visa restrictions on more than 900 Russian officials. The Commerce Department is adding 57 entities to what it calls the entity list, which limits commercial transactions, and plans to try to ensure that companies outside the United States are restricted in the business they can do with those on the list. (NYT, 09.30.22, Bloomberg, 09.30.22)

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• A poll conducted by Data for Progress shows that 57% of likely American voters support U.S. negotiations to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible, even if it means Ukraine making some compromises with Russia. A majority believe that the U.S. has a leading role to play in negotiating an end to the war (59%). Only 41% of Americans support the continuation of current levels of aid to Ukraine without a corresponding diplomatic strategy. (Responsible Statecraft, 09.27.22)
• Russians’ concerns about the “events in Ukraine” reached peak levels in September, according to the Levada Center pollster. In September, 56% of Russians said they were “very worried” about these events (in August - 37%), another 32% said they were “rather worried” (in August - 37%). The level of support for the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine decreased slightly from 76% in August to 72% in September. While 44% of respondents in September believe that hostilities should continue—29% are "definitely" sure of this, and 15% are "rather" sure—48% of those polled believe that peace negotiations should begin. In August, 48% of respondents were in favor of continuing hostilities, and 44% were in favor of starting peace talks. (RM, 09.29.22)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• The Pentagon is preparing to overhaul how the United States and its allies train and equip the Ukrainian military, reflecting what officials say is the Biden administration's long-term commitment to support Ukraine in its war with Russia. The proposal would streamline a training and assistance system that was created on the fly after the Russian invasion in February. The system would be placed under a single new command based in Germany that would be led by a high-ranking U.S. general, according to several military and administration officials. (NYT, 09.30.22)
• Jamie Lee Henry, a former U.S. Army major, and his wife, Dr. Anna Gabrielian, an anesthesiologist, have been charged in connection with a plot that the Justice Department says started in August and was linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Justice Department on Sept. 29 unsealed the indictment charging them with conspiracy and the wrongful disclosure of health information about patients at a U.S. Army base in the state of North Carolina. (RFE/RL, 09.29.22)
• Prosecutors said Jareh Sebastian Dalke, who worked as an information systems security designer at the NSA, tried to send classified national defense information to a foreign government. Though the foreign government is not named, court documents said that Dalke, using Russia’s external intelligence agency’s website, believed he was communicating with someone from a “country with many interests that are adverse to the United States.” (NYT, 09.30.22)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Rosatom's fuel division, TVEL, has delivered its first shipment of fuel for a fast neutron reactor in China, the company said in a statement. (Interfax, 09.29.22)
• Russia and China have signed contracts for the deployment of Russia’s Glonass stations in China and China’s Beidou stations in Russia, the press office of Roscosmos said. (TASS, 09.29.22)
• Gazprom has resumed Russian gas supplies via the Power of Siberia gas pipeline to China upon completion of scheduled maintenance, Gazprom said Sept. 30. (TASS, 09.30.22)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Western capitals are making contingency plans should Putin take steps toward acting on his threats of nuclear attacks against Ukraine and are sending private warnings to the Kremlin about possible consequences, according to Western officials. Sullivan said American and Russian officials have spoken frankly and repeatedly, including in recent days, about specific steps the administration would take if nuclear weapons were deployed. Two other Western officials said that a nuclear strike against Ukraine would be unlikely to spark a retaliation in kind but would instead trigger conventional military responses from Western states to punish Russia. (FT, 09.25.22, NYT, 09.25.22)
  • The Kremlin says it’s in “sporadic” contact with the U.S. after Sullivan on Sept. 25 said the U.S. has talked directly to top-level Russian leaders as recently as the last few days. (The Hill, 09.26.22)
  • Russia’s deputy foreign minister Ryabkov said on Sept. 26 that the United States should "cool down" after Washington warned Moscow against nuclear weapons in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 09.26.22)
• “We have our own military potential. If anyone thinks that we won’t use it if there is a serious threat, then they are mistaken,” said Dmitry Novikov, deputy chair of the foreign affairs committee in the Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament. “And if you’re ready to use these kinds of weapons, we won’t let ours get rusty.” (FT, 09.25.22)
• “The era of nuclear blackmail must end. The idea that any country could fight and win a nuclear war is deranged. Any use of a nuclear weapon would incite a humanitarian Armageddon. We need to step back,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said Sept. 26. (The Hill, 09.26.22)

• U.S. and allied intelligence agencies are stepping up efforts to detect any Russian military moves or communications that might signal that Putin has ordered the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, according to five current and former U.S. officials. But any indications that the erratic Russian leader has decided to unleash the unthinkable—in a desperate attempt to re-seize the initiative or bully the international community to meet his demands—could come too late, they warned. (Politico, 09.27.22)
• A U.S. nuclear planner and two other senior American officers who spoke to Newsweek say that Biden favors non-nuclear options over nuclear ones, should Russia cross the nuclear threshold. (Newsweek, 09.29.22)
• Deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev wrote: “Russia has the right to use nuclear weapons if necessary, in predetermined cases. In strict accordance with the Fundamentals of State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence. If we or our allies are attacked using this type of weapon. Or if aggression with the use of conventional weapons threatens the very existence of our state.” (Telegram, 09.27.22)
• Russia and the U.S. are are selecting a venue to hold a face-to-face meeting of delegations to discuss the resumption of inspections under the New START treaty. Moscow has set three conditions for the Americans to return checks: the U.S. must guarantee the issuance of visas to Russian pilots, flights over its territory and the provision of data. (TASS/Izvestia, 09.29.22)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security:

• There’s one area where the U.S. is still No. 1: cyber power. That’s according to the second edition of the National Cyber Power Index out Sept. 27, part of the Cyber Project within the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. The index makes its return after its inaugural edition in 2020. While No. 1 and No. 2 are the same as before—the United States and China—Russia has moved into the top three, and several nations have rocketed up the list, like Iran, Ukraine, Vietnam and South Korea. (WP, 09.27.22)
• Russia on Sept. 26 granted citizenship to former American intelligence contractor Edward Snowden, who fled prosecution after he revealed highly classified U.S. surveillance programs to capture communications and data from around the world. (BG, 09.27.22)
• American Doreen Bogdan-Martin has been overwhelmingly elected as the first woman to lead the U.N.'s telecom agency in a vote that pitted her against a Russian candidate, Russia's former deputy telecom minister, Rashid Ismailov. Bogdan-Martin will become the next secretary-general of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) following a landslide 139-25 victory on Sept. 29. (RFE/RL, 09.29.22)

Energy exports from CIS:

• The sabotage on the twin Nord Stream gas pipelines between Russia and Germany caused four leaks, according to Sweden’s coastguard—two on the Swedish side and two on the Danish side. The Swedish National Seismic Network (SNSN) registered two distinct blasts in the vicinity of the Danish island of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea on Sept. 26. Automatic monitoring picked up the first blast, which registered the equivalent of an earthquake magnitude of 1.8, at 2:03am. A second larger blast, registering an equivalent earthquake magnitude of 2.3, came at 7:04pm. “The location of the second blast is five or six kilometers away from where the Swedish Maritime Authority puts the gas leak,” said Björn Lund, director of the Swedish seismic network. Lund said: “There is no doubt that these were explosions.” Imagery provided by Planet Labs, an earth imaging company, showed methane bubbles appearing on the surface as early as 9am on Sept. 26. (FT, 09.27.22, FT, 09.29.22, RM, 09.29.22, MT/AFP, 09.29.22)
  • European Commission spokesman Tim McPhie said: “This hasn’t affected the security of supply as yet. ... Deliveries have been zero on Nord Stream 1 anyway, and Nord Stream 2 is not yet authorized to operate. We are also analyzing the potential impact of these leaks of methane, which is a gas which of course has considerable effects on climate change, and we are in touch with the member states about the potential impact on maritime navigation.” (WP, 09.27.22)
  • Swedish police opened an investigation into “sabotage.” Germany and Denmark were also investigating. (WP, 09.27.22)
  • Five European officials with direct knowledge of security discussions said there was a widespread assumption that Russia was behind the incident. Only Russia had the motivation, the submersible equipment and the capability, several of them said, though they cautioned that they did not yet have direct evidence of Russia’s involvement. Poland and Ukraine openly blamed Russia, but presented no evidence to back their claims. (NYT, 09.29.22, WP, 09.27.22, RM, 09.30.22)
  • Peskov said Russia is “extremely concerned” about the damage sustained by the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines. He also vehemently rejected accusations that Russia might be behind the blasts. Russian state media suggested Ukraine and the United States may have been behind the explosions, citing as evidence a tweet by Poland’s former foreign minister Sikorski saying “thanks USA” alongside an image of the leaking gas. Russia’s FSB is investigating the blasts as a terrorist act. (MT/AFP, 09.27.22, RFE/RL, 09.28.22, MT, 09.28.22)
  • Gazprom said on Sept. 27 it won’t reopen Nord Stream 1 as planned. “The damage that occurred in one day simultaneously at three lines of offshore pipelines of the Nord Stream system is unprecedented,” the operating company, Nord Stream AG, said in a statement. It said it was working with local authorities to assess the extent of the damage, along with the cause. Nord Stream 2 has remained unused since its completion. (WP, 09.27.22)
  • The Danish Energy Agency said that 778 million cubic meters of natural gas could escape from the leaks. That would also equate to about 32% of Denmark's total annual emissions, based on 2020 figures, the Danish agency said. (WSJ, 09.30.22)
  • Putin said on Sept. 30 the United States and its allies blew up Nord Stream. "The sanctions were not enough for the Anglo-Saxons: they moved onto sabotage," he said. (Reuters, 09.30.22)
• Capital Economics estimates that Russia's total oil-and-gas export revenues will halve from around $340 billion this year to $170 billion in 2023, a loss equivalent to more than twice Russia's defense budget last year. (WSJ, 09.28.22)
• Russia’s seaborne crude exports to Europe are being compressed, with the bloc’s sanctions only about two months away. Customers in northern Europe in particular have slashed their imports, which are now running below 300,000 barrels a day. That’s about a quarter of the volume that was traded into the region before Moscow sent its forces to Ukraine in late February, crimping the Kremlin’s revenues. (Bloomberg, 09.26.22)
• Factoring in the discount of about $20 for Russian crude, Moscow is already selling its oil below the price needed to balance the budget, estimated at $69 a barrel in 2021 by S&P Global Commodity Insights. (WSJ, 09.28.22)
• Neil Crosby, senior analyst at OilX, said Russian crude exports have fallen to about 4.5 million barrels a day in September, down from over 4.8 million a day in August, because of a drop in flows to Turkey, China and India. Those three countries scooped up much of the Russian crude shunned by the West and its allies in the wake of the invasion. (WSJ, 09.28.22)
• Germany's gas stores are about 91% full, providing a safety cushion ahead of winter. (WSJ, 09.28.22)
• Russia has signed off on a preliminary deal to provide the Taliban with oil, gas and wheat, Afghanistan’s Acting Commerce and Industry Minister Haji Nooruddin Azizi told Reuters on Sept. 27. Russia would supply 1 million tons per year of gasoline, 1 million tpy of diesel, 500,000 tpy of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and 2 million tpy of wheat per year. (BNE, 09.27.22)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• The U.S. embassy in Moscow has urged its citizens to leave Russia after a mobilization drive by Putin prompted hundreds of thousands to buy flights and queue at the border to avoid being drafted to fight in Ukraine. (FT, 09.29.22)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Putin said Sept. 27 his country expected a record-high grain harvest in 2022. "The preliminary estimate [for 2022] already stands at 150 million tons, including around 100 million tons of wheat. This will be a record in the history of Russia," Putin said in televised meeting on agriculture. According to Putin, "138.7 million tons of grain have already been harvested." (MT/AFP, 09.27.22)
• Putin’s approval ratings saw their second-largest drop in his two decades in power. According to the Levada Center, 77% of Russians surveyed this month said they approve of Putin’s actions as president. It marks a six-point drop from the previous share of 83%, which remained almost unchanged in the six months since Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 09.29.22)
• Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church, has told his followers that "sacrifice in the course of carrying out your military duty washes away all sins." (RFE/RL, 09.26.22)
• Russian opposition politician Leonid Gozman has left Russia after serving two consecutive 15-day jail terms on charges of "equating" Soviet-era Russia with Nazi Germany. (RFE/RL, 09.29.22)
• A human rights group in Russia says Yury Dmitriyev, the imprisoned historian and former head of the Memorial human rights group in the northwestern region of Karelia, is being mistreated at his prison in Mordovia. (RFE/RL, 09.29.22)
• Gen. Alexei Sedov, the current head of the FSB’s Second Service, which specializes in suppressing Russia’s political opposition, and his family are worth $17.2 million, according to a new investigation published by Alexei Navalny’s team. (Meduza, 09.26.22)

Defense and aerospace:

• 100,000 Russians have already been mobilized, according to Ukraine’s Deputy Chief of the Operational Directorate of the General Staff Poleksii Hromov in a Sept. 29 statement. (Dialog.ua, 09.29.22)
• Putin has signed amendments toughening the punishment for deserters and those who refuse to fight. Under the amendments, Russians of compulsory military age or reservists will face up to 10 years imprisonment if they refuse to take part in combat operations, the Kremlin said. (RFE/RL, 09.24.22)
• The number of people detained in Russia for protesting against the country's partial military mobilization has risen to nearly 2,500 people across the country. The most striking protests against Putin’s mobilization have been in Dagestan. Overall protests have taken place in more than 30 cities across Russia. (RFE/RL, 09.26.22, FT, 09.27.22, MT/AFP, 09.24.22, RFE/RL, 09.24.22)
• A man has shot a military commissioner at an enlistment center in Siberia. Media reports identified the shooter as 25-year-old Ruslan Zinin, who had been called to report for mobilization that day. (RFE/RL, 09.26.22)
• More than 50 military enlistment offices and administrative buildings have been targeted by arsonists in Russia since the beginning of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine, according to Meduza. (RM, 09.30.22)
• Moscow city authorities will not give out foreign travel passports to Russians mobilized by the army. (MT/AFP, 09.28.22)
• Kazakhstan and Georgia will welcome Russians fleeing conscription, both governments said on Sept. 27. (FT, 09.27.22)
  • Russian military reservists attempting to travel to neighboring Georgia to escape Moscow’s “partial” mobilization will be handed their draft summons at the border, regional authorities in southern Russia said. (MT/AFP, 09.27.22)
  • Russia’s FSB has dispatched armored vehicles to the country’s borders and men waiting to flee to Georgia were being served call-up papers. (NYT, 09.22.22)
  • Kazakhstan will ensure the care and safety of Russians fleeing a "hopeless situation," the president of the Central Asian country said. "Most of them are forced to leave because of the hopeless situation. We must take care of them and ensure their safety," he added. Toqaev says his country plans to hold talks with Moscow regarding the massive influx of Russian citizens entering the country. (MT/AFP, 09.27.22, RFE/RL, 09.27.22)
• There were long lines of cars at a border crossing from Russia to Mongolia on Sept. 25, with thousands of new arrivals to that East Asian country. (RFE/RL, 09.25.22)
• The EU’s border agency, Frontex, said on Sept. 27 that from Sept. 19 to Sept. 25, nearly 66,000 Russian citizens entered the EU, up 30% from the previous week. Most passed through the Estonian and Finnish border crossing points and have EU residence permits, visas or dual citizenship. In the past four days alone, 30,000 Russians have arrived in Finland. (NYT, 09.29.22)
• Russian citizens who are hiding from mobilization can apply for asylum in the United States, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated. (Meduza, 09.28.22)
• Director of Russian private jet operator "Your Charter" Yevgeny Bykov told reporters that the number of applications for flights from Russia increased many times after the announcement of mobilization. “Usually we received 50 applications a day, and now there are about five thousand,” he said. (Meduza, 09.27.22)
• The Kremlin admitted Sept. 26 that errors had been made during the mobilization of reservists for the military action in Ukraine and said no decision had been taken to close Russia's borders. (MT/AFP, 09.26.22)
• Russian Deputy Defense Minister Dmitry Bulgakov has been removed from office and transferred to "another post," the Defense Ministry in Moscow said. Bulgakov will be replaced by Col. Gen. Mikhail Mizintsev, who previously held the position of head of the National Defense Control Center of Russia. The Ukrainian military said Mizintsev led the siege of the Ukrainian Sea of Azov port of Mariupol, which earned him the nickname "the butcher of Mariupol." (RFE/RL, 09.24.22)
• Russia will hide the purpose of almost a quarter of its planned spending next year, as it redraws the budget for a longer war in Ukraine and prepares to annex parts of its neighbor’s territory A draft budget for 2023 allocates approximately 6.5 trillion rubles ($112 billion) in classified or unspecified outlays, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the document. In total, expenditure is planned at 29 trillion rubles. (Bloomberg, 09.29.22)
• Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close associate of Putin, has admitted he founded the private paramilitary Wagner group after years of denying any links to the mercenaries. (RFE/RL, 09.26.22)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The death toll from a shooting spree at a Russian school in Russia’s Udmurtia region on Sept. 26 has risen to 17, including 11 children. Russia's Investigative Committee said on Sept. 26 that the gunman had been identified as Artyom Kazantsev, who was a graduate of the school, which is attended by students from elementary school up to the end of high school. (RFE/RL, 09.27.22)
• On Sept. 26, employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs came with a search warrant to 31-year-old Moscow poet Artem Kamardin’s apartment. They beat and tortured everyone in the apartment, and Kamardin himself, according to his lawyer, was raped with a dumbbell. The poet is still detained—a criminal case has been initiated against him because of anti-war poems. (Meduza, 09.28.22)
• The jury at the Moscow City Court said on Sept. 23 that former Russian senator Rauf Arashukov was guilty of organizing the 2010 murders of Fral Shebzukhov, an adviser to the leader of the North Caucasus region of Karachai-Cherkessia, and Aslan Zhukov, deputy chairman of a youth movement in the mostly Muslim region. (RFE/RL, 09.23.22)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Members of the French National Assembly say they have asked the president of the lower house of parliament to set up a committee to investigate alleged Russian financing of political parties. (RFE/RL, 09.24.22)
• EU and U.S. envoys have expressed dismay at Serbia's decision to sign a two-year pledge to consult with Moscow as much of the West seeks to isolate Russia over its escalating war on Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 09.26.22)
• Japan on Sept. 27 demanded Russia apologize for detaining a diplomat over alleged espionage, denying the charge and accusing Moscow of blindfolding and pinning the man down in "unbelievable acts." (MT/AFP, 09.27.22)
• Peter Tiede, a journalist for Germany's BILD tabloid, was denied entry to Russia on Sept. 26 after being told by border officers he is a “danger” to the Russian state. (MT/AFP, 09.28.22)
• Montenegro on Sept. 29 ordered the expulsion of six Russian diplomats who worked for the Russian Embassy in Podgorica amid an investigation into alleged spying. (RFE/RL, 09.30.22)
• Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Navalny top the shortlist for potential winners of this year’s Nobel Peace prize, the Peace Research Institute Oslo said in annual predictions. (Bloomberg, 09.30.22)

Ukraine:

• According to the Computational Story Lab at the University of Vermont, mentions of “Ukraine” in Arabic on Twitter have dropped nearly 100 times since their peak in late February; by contrast, English-language mentions have dipped only 15 times. (FT, 09.22.22)
• Zelensky appeared by satellite for a talk Sept. 27 at the Harvard Kennedy School. In his remarks, Zelensky denounced Putin’s renewed threats of nuclear attacks and rebuked the recent referenda in which Russian officials claimed that citizens in four occupied regions voted to join Russia. Zelensky warned his Harvard audience that the “so-called” vote is an attempt to grab more territory in his country and represented a calculated effort by the Russian government to use Ukrainians to fight its war against Ukraine. The way to peace is not for Ukraine or its allies to wait to see whether the Kremlin will make good on its “nuclear blackmail” and threats to further annex territory in Ukraine, but to take “preventative” action now to ensure that it does not, he told former U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. (BG, 09.27.22, Harvard Magazine, 09.28.22, WP, 09.27.22, Harvard Crimson, 09.28.22, Harvard Gazette, 09.27.22)
• U.K. prime minister Liz Truss will next week join the inaugural meeting of a new European grouping proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron to bolster regional cooperation in the face of Russian aggression. The group, dubbed the European Political Community, will meet in Prague on Oct. 6. (FT, 09.30.22)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Renewed fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces broke out on Sept. 28, killing three Armenian troops, Yerevan said as the two sides again blamed each other for shooting first across their shared border. The Armenian Defense Ministry’s press service said, "Azerbaijani forces opened fire from mortars and large-caliber firearms at the eastern direction of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border." (RFE/RL, 09.29.22)
• The United States has welcomed the release of RFE/RL correspondent Aleh Hruzdzilovich, who was sentenced to 18 months in prison by Belarusian authorities for allegedly participating in anti-government demonstrations. (RFE/RL, 09.26.22)
• A court in Minsk has sentenced six members of the journalism advocacy group Busly Lyatsyat (Storks Are Flying) to lengthy prison terms on terrorism charges that rights activists say are politically motivated. (RFE/RL, 09.29.22)
• Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev has endorsed a law canceling a state holiday instituted in honor of the Central Asian nation's first president, Nursultan Nazarbaev, the latest move to distance himself from his predecessor. (RFE/RL, 09.29.22)
• Qairat Satybaldy, nephew of Nazarbaev, has been handed a six-year prison term for fraud and embezzlement charges.. (RFE/RL, 09.26.22)
• Jailed Kazakh activist Erzhan Elshibaev, recognized by rights groups as a political prisoner, has been handed an additional seven years in prison for "violating the penitentiary’s internal regulations and calls for disobedience to prison guards.” (RFE/RL, 09.30.22)
• The Kyrgyz Embassy in Moscow has warned Kyrgyz men and women with dual Kyrgyz-Russian citizenship that they are considered Russian citizens while residing in the Russian Federation, and thus could face military service. (RFE/RL, 09.23.22)
• Kyrgyz Education Minister Almaz Beishenaliev has been detained on charges of taking bribes in connection with student admissions to the Central Asian nation's universities. (RFE/RL, 09.29.22)
• Relatives of inmates in Turkmenistan say they were forced to pay up to $2,000 to secure the inclusion of their loved ones on lists of inmates affected by a recent mass amnesty by President Serdar Berdymukhammedov. (RFE/RL, 09.27.22)

 

IV. Quotable and notable

• Russian film director Andrei Zvyagintsev said of Putin: “One person sits in front of the nuclear strike button, and all the others (and there are billions of them) wait with bated breath to see if he presses it or not. He has already made two irreversible gestures—he unleashed a war with a once good neighbor, and now he decided to arrange an exodus of a huge number of citizens from his country. The consequences, catastrophic in terms of the scale of the humanitarian disaster, are in the hands … of a single person.” (Meduza, 09.28.22)
• A former Russian military serviceman, who was identified only by his first name, Dmitry, said on “partial” mobilization in Russia: “One and a half million [soldiers] will be stuffed [into Ukraine] to bury Ukraine under the corpses [of Russian soldiers], so that poor Ukrainians can die simply from some kind of plague that will break out due to the fact that no one retrieves the corpses. (Istories, 09.21.22)
• Nicholas Mulder, assistant professor of history at Cornell University: "Russian tanks are running on microchips cannibalized from washing machines." (FA, 09.27.22)
• Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhny said “I was raised on Russian military doctrine, and I still think that the science of war is all located in Russia. I learned from [chief of Russian General Staff Valery] Gerasimov. I read everything he ever wrote … He is the smartest of men, and my expectations of him were enormous.” “Knowing what I know firsthand about the Russians, our victory will not be final,” he said. “Our victory will be an opportunity to take a breath and prepare for the next war.” (Time, 09.26.22)
• Some Russian officials have called on Russia not to stop those who want to leave the country. “Let the rats who are running run. The ship will be ours, it’s gaining strength and clearly moving toward its target,” Ella Pamfilova, Russia’s election commissioner, said on Sept. 26. (FT, 09.27.22) That Ella Pamfilova, who served as Russia's human rights commissioner in the 2000s, views some of her compatriots as "rats" speaks volumes about the “evolution” of her and the regime.

 

Footnotes

1. Here and elsewhere italicized text represents contextual commentary by RM staff.