6 Things to Know

1. Vladimir Putin orders “partial” mobilization and endorses annexation of parts of Ukraine all while brandishing his nuclear saber: In his Sept. 21 address to the nation, Putin claimed that only reservists (up to 300,000) will be conscripted to fight in Ukraine, where the Kremlin is seeking to reverse recent military setbacks. He also vowed to “do everything necessary to create safe conditions” for this week’s “referenda” in occupied parts of Ukraine on becoming part of Russia and asserted that Russia would use nuclear weapons to defend the newly-annexed parts if needed. “This is not a bluff,” he warned. Volodymyr Zelensky responded to Putin’s latest move by vowing that Ukraine’s armed forces will push on with “liberating” occupied territories. Joe Biden, whose administration has been privately warning Moscow against using nukes for several months, blasted Putin’s “overt nuclear threats against Europe,” while Anthony Blinken vowed that the U.S. will “never, never recognize” the outcomes of the Sep. 23-27 referenda.
2. Russia’s “partial” mobilization begins as pro-Kremlin war watchers acknowledge more gains by Ukrainian military in the east: Russian reservists began to receive call-up notices within hours of Putin’s Sept. 21 morning announcement of a “partial” mobilization, with footage of busloads of recruits shipping off for training appearing online. Officially, up to 300,000 are to be called up, but Novaya Gazeta Europe cited a Kremlin source as saying that Putin’s Sept. 21 decree has a secret, unpublished clause that allows up to one million to be drafted to fight in Ukraine. The Kremlin has denied this claim, but that did not stop thousands from protesting against mobilization while thousands more were reportedly looking to flee from it. Meanwhile, Russian pro-war bloggers have acknowledged incremental gains that the Ukrainian military has made in eastern Ukraine in the second half of this week, crossing the Oskil river, continuing to push Russian forces out of Kupyansk and threatening to overrun the settlement of Liman.
3. Russia and Ukraine have agreed to one of the largest exchanges of prisoners of war in the seven-month conflict. Putin's ally Viktor Medvedchuk and 55 servicemen were handed over to Russia in exchange for 215 Ukrainian POWs, including officers of a Ukrainian far-right unit, the Azov regiment. In addition to Ukrainians, the Russian side released two Americans, five Britons, as well as Swedish, Croatian and Moroccan nationals in a deal vetted by the leadership of the pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and reportedly brokered by Saudi and Turkish leaders with the help of Roman Abramovich. While Ukraine celebrated the release of its soldiers, the exchange sparked outrage among Russian hardliners infuriated by the release of the Azov regiment’s officers and soldiers captured in Mariupol.
4. Orban calls for scrapping sanctions on Russia as EU contemplates new ones. Even as EU leaders pondered new sanctions over Putin’s announcement of mobilization and annexation plans, Hungary’s Viktor Orban said Europe should scrap its sanctions against Russia by the end of this year. Orban reportedly claimed that the sanctions have hurt Europe’s economy more than Russia’s. In separately reported comments, Orban predicted that the Russian-Ukrainian war could last until 2030, and that Ukraine could lose half its territory as a result of that war.
5. Russian and Chinese officials agree to deepen military cooperation. Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, and China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, have agreed to carry out more joint Russian-Chinese military exercises, enhance defense cooperation and strengthen coordination between their countries’ defense officials, NYT reported. The two met in China’s Fujian Province this week as Russian and Chinese warships logged 3,000 nautical miles during a joint patrolling mission, according to TASS. The two country’s navies are to join their Iranian counterparts for joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean later this fall, according to Tehran.
6. Russia revises down its forecast of economic decline as its defense expenditure forecast shoots up. Russia’s GDP will contract by 2.9%, up from a previous projection of negative 4%, Russian Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov told the upper chamber of the Russian parliament. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that Putin is looking to spend far more on the military in the next two years than initially planned. Defense expenditure is now set to exceed next year’s initial budget assumptions by more than 43%, while the related category of national security and law enforcement will go up by over 40%, according to the Russian federal authorities’ three-year fiscal plan seen by Bloomberg.  The planned hike is clearly meant to finance Russia’s war in Ukraine among other things.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• After nearly a week offline, the Zaporizhzhia NPP in southern Ukraine resumed receiving electricity from the country’s power grid, the IAEA said Sept. 17. The restoration came after engineers finished repairing a high-voltage line damaged by shelling. Ukrainian authorities claimed on Sept. 21 that the plant came under Russian fire overnight. Head of IAEA Rafael Grossi said on Sept. 22 that he will not abandon a plan to create a protection zone around the plant and hopes to go to Ukraine and Russia soon to push for an agreement. Grossi said he was now entering "real negotiations" with both countries. (NYT, 09.17.22, RFE/RL, 09.22.22, RFE/RL, 09.21.22)
• Russian forces carried out a missile strike that narrowly missed the Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear power plant located in the Mykolayiv region, around 200 kilometers north of the southern frontline of fighting, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky said Sept. 19. (FT, 09.19.22)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea's Defense Ministry has denied that it has provided weapons and ammunition to Russia amid the war in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 09.22.22)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has reiterated his demand for guarantees from the United States that it will not again withdraw from a deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program should negotiations to revive the deal be successful. (RFE/RL, 09.21.22)
• Iran, Russia and China will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean “this autumn,” Iran’s Mehr news agency reported. Other countries including Oman and Pakistan may also join the drills. (Bloomberg, 09.22.22)

Humanitarian aspects of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russia and Ukraine have agreed to swap 200 prisoners in one of the largest exchanges of the seven-month war. Russian President Vladimir Putin's ally Viktor Medvedchuk and 55 servicemen were handed over to Russia in exchange for 215 high-profile Ukrainian prisoners of war. Zelensky said the exchange included five Ukrainian military commanders, including officers of a Ukrainian far-right unit, the Azov regiment, who lead the defense of the Azovstal mill in Mariupol earlier this year. (MT/AFP, 09.22.22, RFE/RL, 09.22.22, WP, 09.22.22)
  • As part of the exchange, two U.S. military veterans were released: Alexander J. Drueke and Andy Tai Huynh, both of Alabama, were captured in June near Kharkiv. (WP, 09.22.22)
  • Five British prisoners of war released by Russia as part of an exchange with Ukraine arrived back in the U.K. on Sept. 22. They are: Aiden Aslin, Shaun Pinner, John Harding, Dylan Healy and Andrew Hill. (RFE/RL, 09.22.22)
  • The exchange was brokered with involvement from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich met MBS in Riyadh at the end of August as part of talks that led to Russia and Ukraine swapping prisoners of war, according to three people familiar with the matter. (WP, 09.22.22. Bloomberg, 09.23.22)
  • Among the prisoners released by pro-Russian separatists and Russian authorities are also Swedish, Croatian and Moroccan nationals. (RFE/RL, 09.21.22)
  • Ukraine celebrated the release of its soldiers. In contrast, the exchange sparked outrage Sept. 22 among Russian hardliners and far-right figures. (FT, 09.22.22, MT/AFP, 09.22.22)
• On Sept. 17, a new round of strikes hit the Belgorod region in western Russia, killing at least one person and wounding two. (WP, 09.18.22)
• The U.K.'s Defense Ministry said Sept. 18 that Russian strikes had increasingly picked out civilian targets over the past week, even when no immediate military benefit could be perceived. (WSJ, 09.18.22)
• Ukraine last week claimed to have uncovered a mass grave of more than 440 people in the northeastern city of Izyum. It said the discovery was further evidence of war crimes committed by Russian forces. Zelensky welcomed a planned visit by a United Nations team to the gravesite. On Sept. 19, Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said the claims were untrue. Ukrainian authorities have opened some 32,650 war-crime cases as of Sept. 15. (FT, 09.19.22, WP, 09.16.22, WSJ, 09.18.22, WSJ, 09.19.22) 
• At least six civilians including a teenager were killed in a missile strike on the center of the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk on Sept. 22, Russian-backed authorities said. The strike completely destroyed a passenger bus and most casualties were inside it. (Reuters, 09.22.22, TASS, 09.22.22)
• Around 150,000 Ukrainians have arrived in the U.S. on a variety of visas, including tourist visas, which wouldn't make them eligible to work. About 50,000 have arrived through the U.S. government United for Ukraine program, which aims to provide Ukrainians with a pathway to seek refuge in the U.S. (WSJ, 09.20.22)
• Ukraine has exported more than 14 million tons of grain through so-called “solidarity lanes” into EU countries. (FT, 09.20.22)
• The United Nations has warned that acute food insecurity is likely to "rise precipitously" by the end of the year in 19 "hunger hot spots" around the world in part due to Russia's war against Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 09.22.22)
• EU diplomats said that while there were strong voices within the bloc arguing for a generous approach to Russians trying to avoid military service, there was a broadly shared concern about how to verify people’s identities and background to ensure that those seeking EU protection are genuine asylum-seekers and not Kremlin agents or provocateurs. (NYT, 09.22.22)
• Zelensky has demanded that a special U.N. tribunal impose "just punishment" on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. He demanded Russia be punished "for trying to steal our territory" and "for the murders of thousands of people." He said there also should be financial penalties and Moscow should be stripped of its veto power in the Security Council. (RFE/RL, 09.21.22)
• U.N. investigators have concluded that war crimes have been committed during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, including the bombing of civilians areas, numerous executions, torture and horrific sexual violence, Erik Mose, the head of a Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, told the U.N. Human Rights Council Sept. 23. (RFE/RL, 09.23.22)

Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In his Sept. 21 address to the nation, Putin claimed that only reservists (up to 300,000) will be conscripted to fight in Ukraine, where the Kremlin is seeking to reverse recent military setbacks.  He also vowed to “do everything necessary to create safe conditions” for the sham “referenda,” which are to take place in Russian-controlled parts of southern and eastern Ukraine on Sept. 23-27 to “legitimize” their annexation by Russia. In his speech Putin made it clear Russia would use nuclear weapons to defend the newly-annexed parts if needed. “This is not a bluff,” he warned. (MT/AFP, 09.21.22, Kremlin.ru, 09.21.22, RM, 09.23.22)
  • Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who addressed Russia after Putin, claimed 300,000 will be called up and that this number will include neither conscripts nor students. Shoigu also claimed that 5,937 Russian soldiers had been killed in the fighting in Ukraine, offering the first official account of casualties since March. Shoigu also claimed Ukraine has lost 61,207 killed in action. (KP.ru 09.21.22, RM, 09.21.22)
  • Zelensky has said Ukraine’s armed forces will push on “liberating” about 15% of far eastern and southern regions that remain occupied by Russia’s invading forces. He urged Russian citizens to protest Putin’s order and called for soldiers called into duty to “run away” or surrender. (FT, 09.21.22, FT, 09.22.22)
  • Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, chief of the general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces, wrote in a Facebook post on Sept. 21 that “we will destroy everyone who comes to our land with weapons—whether voluntarily or by mobilization.” (FT, 09.21.22)
  • Biden administration officials quickly condemned the Russian push for annexation. "If Russia purports to annex Ukrainian territory, the United States will never, never recognize it," said Secretary of State Antony Blinken. National security adviser Jake Sullivan called Russia's moves "the act of a country that has suffered setbacks—
  • The partial mobilization and annexation of parts of Ukraine are "an admission that [Putin's] invasion is failing," U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said in a tweet Sept. 21. (WSJ, 09.21.22)
    •  Also see section Defense and aerospace below.
    • For reactions of Russian influentials to Putin’s address, see our compilation. 
• EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has promised new punitive measures against Russia in response to Putin’s Sept. 21 moves. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said on Sept. 21 that new sanctions were needed to respond to these moves. But some EU officials think it will be difficult to get anything more than a limited set of penalties past all EU member states. Still, Poland and the Baltic states are pushing for hard-hitting EU measures against Russia, including ejecting more banks from the SWIFT messaging network and banning diamond imports. (FT, 09.23.22, RFE/RL, 09.22.22)
• “This is probably the most delicate phase of this decades-long game of chicken,” said a senior European diplomat. “He is actively trying to sow discord. His hope is to drag it out until winter and use the social discontent to actually widen the very real rifts—both intra-EU and transatlantic—that for now stay below the surface.” (FT, 09.22.22)
• Speaking at an intelligence conference in Washington, deputy director of the CIA David S. Cohen said, ''I don't think we should underestimate Putin's adherence to his original objective, which was to control Ukraine.'' Colin H. Kahl, under secretary of defense for policy, said, ''Ukraine's success on the battlefield could cause Russia to feel backed into a corner, and that is something we must remain mindful of.'' (NYT, 09.17.22)
• Zelensky is pressing Biden for a new and more powerful weapon: Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, with a range of 190 miles. The weapon, Zelensky says, is critical to launching a wider counteroffensive, perhaps early next year. Biden is resisting. (NYT, 09.17.22)
• The Pentagon has provided thousands of satellite-guided rockets and 16 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System launchers, or HIMARS, to fire them. Those rockets have struck more than 400 Russian ammunition depots, command posts and radars. (NYT, 09.17.22)
• U.S. Air Force analysts are sharing information about Russian air-launched missiles and other airborne threats with their Ukrainian counterparts in real time, the top American air commander in Europe, Gen. James Hecker, said. Hecker said since Russia's invasion in late February, Ukraine's air defenses had shot down about 50 Russian warplanes. (NYT, 09.19.22)
• Top Pentagon officials are weighing Ukraine's requests for advanced fighter jets, including F-15s and F-16s, but even if such a transfer were approved, it would take much longer for Ukrainian pilots to train up. (NYT, 09.19.22)
• Ukrainian officials have intensified their pleas for modern battle tanks and other heavily armored vehicles to use against invading Russian forces. A senior U.S. defense department official told reporters on Sept. 19 that the Pentagon was open to potentially sending Western tanks to Kyiv. (NYT, 09.20.22, WP, 09.19.22)
• U.S. Army Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, signaled concerns about how Moscow might react to setbacks in battle, urging U.S. troops in Europe and allies to be at "high states of readiness [and] alert." (RFE/RL, 09.19.22)
• British defense intelligence has said in its latest assessment that it believes Russia's Black Sea Fleet has moved submarines from their home port on the annexed Crimean Peninsula to southern Russia in a sign of the increased threat to Russian forces of Ukraine's "long-range strike capability." (RFE/RL, 09.20.22)
• British Prime Minister Liz Truss will tell world leaders this week that Britain will match or exceed the £2.3 billion it committed to Ukraine’s war effort against Russia in 2022 next year. (FT, 09.20.22) 
• Ukraine’s military has grabbed around 200 tanks left by fleeing Russian troops in the east, people familiar with the matter claimed. (Bloomberg, 09.22.22)
• Britain's Defense Ministry says Ukrainian forces have secured bridgeheads on the eastern bank of the Oskil River in the eastern part of the Kharkiv region. The Oskil flows south to the Siverskiy Donets River, which bisects the Luhansk region that along with Donetsk composes what's known as the Donbas. (RFE/RL, 09.23.22)
• A review of combat developments in the Kharkiv area on Sept. 22, which was posted in pro-war Russian telegram channel Rybar, on Sept. 23, acknowledged that the Ukrainian armed forces launched a “counter-offensive for the purpose of arriving at the border of LNR [self-styled Luhansk People’s Republic] and striking the flank of the allied” Russian and pro-Russian forces in the area. In the course of that attack the Ukrainian forces managed to break through defense formations of the Russian armed forces in the Dvurechnoye-Kypyansk area, to cross the Oskil river and to bypass Kupyansk, where fighting continued, from the north. The village of Tavolzhanka remained contested as of Sept. 22, according to the review, which said the Ukrainian command is most likely planning to establish full control of Kupyansk in the next 24 hours. The Ukrainian forces were also developing an offensive on the eastern bank of the Oskil river, after having crossed it, with fighting underway around the villages of Karlivka and Lozovoye as of Sept. 22, with the Ukrainian military trying to encircle Liman, according to a Sept. 22 account of combat in the Liman area posted by Rybar. The head of the Kremlin-installed administration of Liman said on Sept. 22 that the settlement remained in the control of Russian and pro-Russian forces. A pro-war Russian blogger, Kotyonok, acknowledged on the same day that the situation in the Liman area was a “difficult one” for the Russian forces, while another pro-Russian war blogger Semyon Pegov called it “dangerous.” A Ukrainian OSINT team, Deep State, stated, citing the Ukrainian military, that the Ukrainian forces took Yatkskivka on the eastern bank of the Oskil, although an RM search did not find acknowledgements of this loss on the Russian side. (RM, 09.22.22)

Punitive measures related to Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Tukey’s İşbank and Denizbank suspended transactions through Russia’s Mir payment cards and several banks in Kazakhstan including Kazakhstan's largest bank, Halyk Bank, have suspended the use of Mir cards amid warnings by the U.S. Treasury Department about possible sanctions. Internationally issued payment cards by Russia's Mir reportedly have also stopped functioning in Uzbekistan. Earlier this week, several banks in Vietnam also suspended the use of Mir cards. (RFE/RL, 09.21.22, Meduza, 09.19.22, MT/AFP, 09.20.22, RFE/RL, 09.23.22) 
• American soft drink giant PepsiCo has fully halted production in Russia. (MT/AFP, 09.20.22)
• Police in Germany have raided 24 houses and apartments across the country reportedly linked to Uzbek-born Russian tycoon Alisher Usmanov in connection with alleged breaches by a Russian oligarch of sanctions and money-laundering rules. (RFE/RL, 09.21.22)
• Russia will not take part in the draw for qualifying for Euro 2024, UEFA and the country's football federation confirmed on Sept. 20. (MT/AFP, 09.20.22)
• The German government announced Sept. 21 that it would nationalize the country's biggest importer of Russian gas, Uniper. (WP, 09.21.22)
• The EU should scrap its sanctions against Russia by the end of this year, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said. He told lawmakers in a closed-door meeting that sanctions have hurt Europe’s economy more than Russia’s. Meanwhile, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has urged EU officials to avoid talk of further sanctions on Russia while Orban’s party planned to launch an advertising blitz at home against EU energy sanctions. Orban proposed launching a “national consultation” on the issue. (Bloomberg, 09.22.22, RFE/RL, 09.20.22, Bloomberg, 09.22.22)
  • The Russian-Ukrainian war could last until 2030, and Ukraine could lose a third to even half of its territory as a result of that war, Orban said in a speech on Sept. 10 at a gathering of Hungary’s ruling party Fidesz. He also said that EU could fall apart by then. (Daily News Hungary, 09.17.22)
  • A Kremlin spokesman has praised a stubbornly allied Hungarian leadership for what it describes as Budapest's willingness to take "sovereign positions" on issues within the EU. (RFE/RL, 09.19.22)
• Finland said Sept. 21 it is preparing a national solution to "limit or completely prevent" tourism from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 09.22.22)

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat, in an article for Journal du Dimanche warned that the war was far from over, but it was time to start thinking about a peace process. (FT, 09.18.22)
• Erdogan has called for a diplomatic solution that gives Russia and Ukraine a "dignified way out" of the crisis sparked by Russia's invasion. He said a lasting peace must be based on protecting Ukraine's territorial integrity and added that Turkey will continue to increase its efforts to end the war. (RFE/RL, 09.20.22)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov faced off against Western powers at the U.N. Security Council on Sept. 22, defending the invasion of Ukraine after his U.S. counterpart said Moscow had “shredded” international norms. Lavrov, who arrived late and left after addressing the council for about 20 minutes, denied Russia had committed war crimes and blamed Ukraine and its Western backers for the conflict. Blinken and other officials said the onus was on Russia to stop the war. “One man chose this war. And one man can end it,” Blinken said. “Because if Russia stops fighting, the war ends. If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine ends.” (FT, 09.22.22)
• Biden and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron on Sept. 21 at a meeting in New York reaffirmed support for Ukraine and discussed issues related to Iran and China, the White House press office reported. (TASS, 09.21.22)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Public admonishments of Putin by the leaders of China and India over his invasion of Ukraine at the past SCO summit signal a shift in global perceptions of the war, Western officials claimed. A senior European minister told the Financial Times they interpreted the comments as “actual criticism.” (FT, 09.18.22)
• In comments broadcast Sept. 18, Peskov told Russian state TV that Moscow and Beijing had “total affinity in our approach to all kinds of provocative actions stemming from the United States and the unacceptability of such destructive behavior.” (FT, 09.18.22)
• Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, and China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, have agreed to carry out more joint Russian-Chinese military exercises and enhance defense cooperation and to strengthen coordination between their countries’ defense officials, according to the Russian agency’s statement. (NYT, 09.19.22)
• Lavrov said: “Strategic partnership with China remains an absolute foreign policy priority for Russia. It is sustainable, long-term and does not depend on the volatility of the international environment.” (Newsweek, 09.21.22)
• The foreign ministers of the BRICS countries reaffirmed the need for a comprehensive reform of the United Nations, including of the Security Council, in a joint statement, released on Sept. 23. (TASS, 09.23.22)
• Warships of the Russian navy and the navy of the Chinese People's Liberation Army are continuing a joint patrolling mission in the Pacific, the Russian Defense Ministry said Sept. 23. "The units from the two countries have covered over 3,000 nautical miles in 12 days," the ministry said. The Russian and Chinese ships are practicing maneuvering and communications, it said. (Interfax, 09.23.22)
• "China will ... continue contributing to peace settlement and talks. We hope that the sides will not abandon their dialogue efforts and remain committed to addressing security concerns through peace talks," China’s Foreign Minister and State Councilor Wang Yi said at a meeting in New York City with Larvov. Russia is confident that the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party due in October will enable Beijing to continue its work to facilitate the establishment of just rules on the world stage, Lavrov said. (TASS, 09.22.22, Interfax, 09.22.22)

Nuclear arms control:

• In his Sept. 21 address Putin renewed his warnings of a nuclear threat. “When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people,” he said. “This is not a bluff.” “Those who are trying to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the wind patterns can also turn in their direction,” Putin said, accusing the U.S. and its allies of seeking to “destroy” Russia. (FT, 09.21.22)
  • Biden hit out at Putin’s “overt nuclear threats against Europe [and] reckless disregard for the responsibilities of a non-proliferation regime,” attacking the referendum and mobilization plans in his speech to the U.N. on Sept. 21 as “outrageous acts.” Biden added: “This war is about extinguishing Ukraine’s right to exist as a state, plain and simple . . . That should make your blood run cold.” (FT, 09.21.22)
    • In an earlier interview Biden once again warned Russia against using nuclear weapons to try to turn the tide of the war in Moscow’s favor, saying that such an action would “change the face of war unlike anything since World War II.” “They’ll become more of a pariah in the world than they ever have been. And depending on the extent of what they do will determine what response would occur.” "Don't. Don't. Don't," Biden said. (NYT, 09.17.22, AFP, 09.17.22)
    • “[Putin] knows very well that a nuclear war should never be fought and cannot be won, and it will have unprecedented consequences for Russia,” NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said Sept. 21. (FT, 09.22.22)
• The U.S. for several months has been sending private communications to Moscow warning Russia's leadership of the grave consequences that would follow the use of a nuclear weapon, according to U.S. officials. The Biden administration generally has decided to keep warnings about the consequences of a nuclear strike deliberately vague, so the Kremlin worries about how Washington might respond, the officials said. (WP, 09.22.22)
• Lavrov said: “It is objectively not possible to maintain normal communication with Washington declaring the strategic defeat of Russia as an objective. It equally pertains to the consultations on strategic stability and arms control discontinued by the American side. Naturally, we note some sketchy signals from the U.S. administration, and personally Joe Biden, concerning the resumption of the START dialogue, but what is behind those signals remains to be seen. The Americans are avoiding any substantive interaction on regional deconfliction.” (Newsweek, 09.21.22.)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security:

• The Pentagon has ordered a sweeping audit of how it conducts clandestine information warfare after major social media companies identified and took offline fake accounts suspected of being run by the U.S. military in violation of the platforms' rules. (WP, 09.20.22)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia’s seaborne crude exports have fallen sharply in the first half of September, hit first by a storm in the Pacific and then by an unexplained decline in shipments from the Baltic. Crude shipped from Russia’s ports has fallen by almost 900,000 barrels a day in two weeks, averaging 2.54 million barrels a day in the week to Sept. 16, compared with 3.42 million in the seven days to Sept. 2. (Bloomberg, 09.20.22)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Biden met Sept. 23 with relatives of basketball star Brittney Griner and fellow U.S. citizen Paul Whelan, who are both imprisoned in Russia. (AFP, 09.17.22)
  • Lavrov said: “As for the detained U.S. citizens, we have repeatedly warned that it is counterproductive to bring this issue before the public.” (Newsweek, 09.21.22)
• Biden formally nominated Lynne Tracy, the current U.S. ambassador to Armenia who speaks Russian, to be the next U.S. ambassador to Russia. Moscow has agreed to receive a new U.S. ambassador. (RFE/RL, 09.21.22, MT/AFP, 09.22.22)
• A U.S. astronaut and two Russian cosmonauts have arrived at the International Space Station after blasting off on a Russian Soyuz rocket in a rare instance of cooperation between Moscow and Washington. (RFE/RL, 09.22.22)
• Lavrov said: “I can say straight away that we do not exaggerate the importance of the results of these [U.S. Congressional] elections in the context of improving Russian-American relations, given the persistent rejection at the Capitol of the very idea of equal dialogue with Moscow. It is still too early to say anything about the 2024 U.S. presidential campaign since it has not really begun yet.” (Newsweek, 09.21.22)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia's sanctions-hit economy will shrink by less than previously forecast this year and return to growth in 2024 on the back of domestic demand and investment, the economic development minister said Sept. 21. Gross domestic product will contract by 2.9%, up from a previous projection of negative 4%, said Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov. The IMF has forecast a 6% contraction in Russia this year. (MT/AFP, 09.21.22)
• August polling showed a significant increase in Russians’ trust in all state and public institutions compared to last year, according to the Levada Center. Levada said its polls show that Russians’ trust in the president rose from 53% (2021) to 80% (2022), trust in the government rose from 33% (2021) to 55% and trust in parliament rose from 25% (2021) to more than 40% (2022). (Levada Center, 09.20.22)
• Over 1,300 people were detained across Russia on Sept. 21 as rallies against a military mobilization declared by Putin for the war in Ukraine took place in areas from the Far East to Moscow. According to the independent OVD-Info police monitor, at least 1,386 protesters have been detained nationwide so far, with at least half of the count recorded in Moscow. It added that a majority of those detained were women. (MT/AFP, 09.21.22, MT/AFP, 09.23.22)
  • A Russian military recruitment office and an administration building were attacked overnight on Sept. 22 amid nationwide protests against Putin’s “partial” mobilization orders. (MT/AFP, 09.22.22)
  • Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny said Putin was sending more Russians to their death for a failing war in a video message recorded from prison. Navalny has been placed in punitive solitary confinement for the fifth time since mid-August for what he says are politically motivated reasons. (RFE/RL, 09.21.22, RFE/RL, 09.23.22)
  • Virtually all flights from Russia to available foreign destinations in the coming days were sold out Sept. 21 after Putin declared a “partial” mobilization of the country’s 25 million reservists. Ticket prices have skyrocketed. (MT/AFP, 09.21.22, RFE/RL, 09.22.22)
• Alla Pugacheva, 73, Russia's biggest pop icon, publicly voiced her opposition to the war on Sept. 18. In a post on Instagram, where she has 3.4 million followers, Pugacheva asserted that Russians were dying needlessly for "illusory aims." (NYT, 09.19.22)
• Ivan Zhdanov, the former chief of Navalny's office in the city of Ufa in Bashkortostan, has been handed final indictment papers and may face up to 18 years in prison if convicted on charges of extremism. (RFE/RL, 09.20.22)
• Seven Jehovah's Witnesses have been handed prison terms on extremism charges in Russia's southwestern Rostov region amid an ongoing crackdown on the religious group that has been banned in Russia since 2017. (RFE/RL, 09.22.22)
• Vladimir Osechkin, who heads the Gulagu.net project, which has in recent years published videos showing graphic scenes of torture and rape inside Russian prisons, said Sept. 19 he had escaped an assassination attempt in France which he blamed on Russian special services and organized crime. (MT/AFP, 09.20.22)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia’s defense expenditure is now set to exceed next year’s initial budget assumptions by more than 43%, while the related category of national security and law enforcement will go up by over 40%, according to a three-year fiscal plan seen by Bloomberg. At almost 5 trillion rubles ($84 billion), or 3.3% of GDP, outlays on “national defense” are now second to the government’s social programs as a share of spending. (Bloomberg, 09.23.22)
• A day after Putin announced a call-up that could sweep 300,000 civilians into military service, thousands of Russians across the country received draft papers and were being bundled into buses on Sept. 22 for training—and soon, possibly, to the front lines in Ukraine. (NYT, 09.22.22)
  • Andrey Kartapolov, head of the State Duma Defense Committee, said that "most citizens will be called up in the course of partial mobilization in the central and western regions of the Russian Federation, based on the number of people living in each subject of the Russian Federation." (Baza, 09.21.22)
  • A member of Russia’s upper house of parliament has called for ending military service exemptions for people with scoliosis and flat feet. (RFE/RL, 09.22.22)
  • Putin’s decree also prevents those already on the frontline on short-term contracts from leaving. (FA, 09.22.22)
  • Russia has said it is exempting some bankers, IT workers and journalists from being drafted into the army to serve in Ukraine under the “partial mobilization.” (Al Jazeera, 09.23.22)
  • Novaya Gazeta Europe cited a Kremlin source as saying that Putin’s Sept. 21 decree has a secret, unpublished clause that allows up to one million to be drafted to fight in Ukraine, while Meduza’s source “close to a federal agency” said 1.2 million can be called up. Peskov denied the existence of such a clause. (RM, 09.22.22)
  • "Baza" interviewed those who had already received callup notices in several regions of Russia. Judging by the survey, as a rule, summons come to those who have the following military specialties: infantry rifleman, reconnaissance scout, medic, sapper, tanker and artillery specialist. (Baza, 09.21.22)
  • Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said he has exempted his region from Putin’s military call-up following protests in his home region and his anger over a recent Russian-Ukrainian prisoner exchange. “The republic of Chechnya over-fulfilled its conscription plan by 254%… even before the announcement of a partial mobilization,” he wrote in a Telegram post. (MT/AFP, 09.23.22)
  • Authorities in Russia’s republic of Tatarstan have prohibited all residents in the military reserves from leaving the region. (MT/AFP, 09.22.22)
  • Pranksters called the 32-year-old son of Peskov on Sept. 21 and told him that he was being enlisted in the army and must fight in Ukraine, and he responded by trying to get out of being drafted. (Business Insider, 09.22.22)
• Kartapolov announced on Sept. 21 the upcoming formation of new formations and units to strengthen the protection of the state border and create "operational depth" in the areas of the special military operation in Ukraine. (NVO, 09.21.22)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Russia's State Duma has approved a bill that toughens punishments for desertion, damage to military property, looting, defection and insubordination if they are committed during military mobilization or combat situations. (RFE/RL, 09.20.22)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The Russian Foreign Ministry has summoned the Canadian ambassador over alleged attacks on the Russian Embassy in Ottawa. The ministry said that an unknown person threw a Molotov cocktail onto the territory of the Russian Embassy in the Canadian capital. (RFE/RL, 09.19.22)
• The Serb member of Bosnia-Herzegovina's tripartite presidency, Milorad Dodik, met in Moscow on Sept. 20 with Putin and received the Russian leader's backing in his upcoming bid for reelection. (RFE/RL, 09.21.22)
• Jacob Rees-Mogg has claimed there have been widely reported stories that opposition to fracking has been funded by the Putin regime. (Bloomberg, 09.22.22)
• Three-time Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi faced a backlash after defending Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as campaigning for the country’s general election draws to a close. He said the Russian leader “only wanted to replace Zelensky with a government made up of decent people” but he had encountered “unexpected resistance” on the ground. Berlusconi’s rightwing party Forza Italia is part of a coalition led by Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy that is expected to form the government after Sept. 25’s election. (FT, 09.23.22)

Ukraine:

• Russia-backed officials in four partially occupied Ukrainian regions were on Sept. 23 holding so-called referendums on joining the Russian Federation—which some have called sham votes because they are illegal under international law. (RFE/RL, 09.22.22)
• Pope Francis has called Ukrainians a "noble" people being martyred as they are subjected to savageness, monstrosities and torture amid Russia's unprovoked invasion of their country. Francis did not name Russia in his remarks on Sept. 21 at the end of his general audience on St. Peter's Square. (RFE/RL, 09.21.22)
• Truss has left open the door to joining a new European grouping proposed by Macron, intended to bolster regional cooperation in the face of Russian aggression. The EU plans to invite Truss to a summit in Prague on Oct. 6, which would bring together EU members and neighboring countries including the U.K., Ukraine, Moldova and Balkan states. (FT, 09.21.22)
• A planned visit by far right state politicians from the Alternative for Germany party to a Russian-occupied part of eastern Ukraine has been canceled, according to a party spokesman, after news of the trip prompted widespread criticism. (NYT, 09.21.22)
• Zelensky met with Laurence Fink, the head of BlackRock, the world’s largest manager of assets, to discuss how to attract investment in the country’s war-ravaged economy. (NYT, 09.19.22)
• More than two years after Iran shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane, killing all 176 people onboard, family members of the victims are asking the International Criminal Court to investigate the incident as a war crime. (WP, 09.19.22)
• Three McDonald's restaurants will reopen in Kyiv this week, a company spokeswoman said on Sept. 19, fulfilling a pledge the chain made last month to bring employees back to work even as the war persists. (NYT, 09.20.22)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict:
  • Fighting last week, the deadliest between the two countries since 2020, was “initiated by the Azeris,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in Armenia, while also calling for a negotiated settlement. Pelosi condemned “illegal and deadly attacks by Azerbaijan” on its neighbor. “This was initiated by the Azeris,” Pelosi said at a news conference during her visit to Armenia. “There has to be recognition of that.” ''Territorial security and sovereignty of Armenia, the democracy of Armenia, is a value to us in America,'' she said.  (NYT, 09.18.22, NYT, 09.19.22)
    • “As for what Armenia expects [from the United States], we expect active support for [our] democracy, sovereignty and territorial integrity in all possible directions,” Alen Simonian, the speaker of Armenia’s parliament, told the news conference. (RFE/RL, 09.18.22)
  • Blinken "emphasized the need to prevent further hostilities" in his meeting in New York on Sept. 19 with Armenia's and Azerbaijan's top diplomats. The meeting between Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Ceyhun Bayramov came on the sidelines of the annual U.N. General Assembly that kicked off this week. (RFE/RL, 09.20.22)
  • Putin on Sept. 20 said Moscow was worried about fresh fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan, calling on the historic foes to negotiate solutions to their territorial disputes. (MT/AFP, 09.20.22)
  • On Sept. 23 Armenia and Azerbaijan have traded fresh accusations over a violation of a fragile cease-fire agreement that ended the fighting. During the fighting Azerbaijani soldiers brutally killed a female Armenian soldier, Chief of the General Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces Eduard Asryan said on Sept. 17. “I will show you this video... you can see how they dismembered a female soldier, cut off her legs, fingers, stripped her naked,” Asryan said. The video, which Asryan spoke about, was filmed by Azerbaijani soldiers and it shows the Armenian female soldier undressed, with an inscription made on her chest and stomach “Yashma,” the name of an Azeri special forces unit. The video shows the woman's fingers had been cut off and stuffed into her mouth, and her eye was also gouged out. (Meduza, 09.17.22, RFE/RL, 09.23.22)
• Tajik-Kyrgyz conflict:
  • Officials in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have issued differing assessments following violence in the past week that killed at least 100 people around their unresolved border, with Bishkek saying the situation is "normalized" but Dushanbe saying it remains "complicated." (RFE/RL, 09.20.22)
  • Kyrgyz authorities said the death toll after days of shooting along the border with Tajikistan had risen to 36, as a tense cease-fire remained in place amid scattered gunfire and shelling. (RFE/RL, 09.18.22)
  • Tajikistan has accused Kyrgyzstan of continuing to keep military hardware at the two Central Asian nations' common border. (RFE/RL, 09.21.22)
  • Tajikistan has accused Kyrgyzstan of continuing to violate its airspace by using drones. (RFE/RL, 09.22.22)
• Kyrgyz and Uzbek authorities have warned citizens working as migrant laborers in Russia of serious repercussions for joining the Russian military in its ongoing war in Ukraine after Moscow announced a partial mobilization. Moscow could strip the Russian passports of naturalized citizens from Central Asia if they defy Putin’s orders to take up arms in Ukraine, Kirill Kabanov, member of the presidential human rights council, said. (MT/AFP, 09.23.22, RFE/RL, 09.22.22)
• Tajikistan's Supreme Court has sentenced retired Maj. Gen. Kholbash Kholbashov to life in prison for his alleged role in organizing deadly protests in the Gorno-Badakhshan region in May. (RFE/RL, 09.22.22)
• Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev has set Nov. 20 as the date for an early presidential election. He has officially signed legislation to replace the current system of a maximum of two consecutive five-year presidential terms with a single seven-year term and to change the name of the capital back to Astana from Nur-Sultan. The Kazakh parliament's upper chamber, the Senate, has also approved a motion to annul a state holiday instituted in honor of the country's first president, Nursultan Nazarbaev. (RFE/RL, 09.17.22., RFE/RL, 09.21.22, RFE/RL, 09.19.22, RFE/RL, 09.22.22)
• Kazakhstan says it won't issue permanent residence permits to Russian citizens without Moscow's permission, as large numbers of Russians seek to leave following the Kremlin's announcement of a partial military mobilization. (RFE/RL, 09.22.22)
• Prosecutors at the high-profile trial of Qairat Satybaldy, a nephew of Kazakhstan's former strongman president Nazarbaev, have asked a court in Astana to sentence the defendant to six years in prison on fraud and embezzlement charges. (RFE/RL, 09.22.22)
• Police in Kazakhstan's largest city, Almaty, briefly detained two activists who protested against a wave of Russian citizens entering the country after Putin announced a partial military mobilization. (RFE/RL, 09.23.22)

 

IV. Quotable and notable

• “One card left in Putin’s deck that he hasn’t used is the full winter,” said Mason Clark, Russia team lead at the Institute for the Study of War. “We’re growing increasingly confident that the Kremlin is waiting to see what the effects of winter itself will have for European support for the war.” (FP, 09.15.22)
• Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeev says either Putin wins or things go nuclear. “The whole world should be praying for Russia’s victory, because there are only two ways this can end: either Russia wins, or a nuclear apocalypse.” (Telegram, 09.21.22)