5 Things to Know

1. Rossiiskaya Gazeta has just published an interview with the head of Russia’s Central Test Site, in which he vowed that this facility, which hosted more than 200 nuclear detonations before 1990, is ready to resume testing at any moment. In the interview with this Russian government daily, Rear Adm. Andrei Sinitsyn states at least thrice that this Novaya Zemlya archipelago-based facility is ready for resuming tests. “If the order is given, we will begin tests at any moment,” the admiral stated. “If the task is set to resume testing, it will be completed within the specified time frame,” he vowed.  “The test site is ready to resume full-scale testing activities,” he said.¹ Sinitsyn’s interview is apparently meant to contribute to the Russian military-political leadership’s continued effort to dissuade the U.S. and its allies from approving Ukraine’s use of Western-made long-range missiles against targets inside “mainland Russia,” as well to exercise general pressure on the U.S. and allies as they ponder the amount and types of continued military aid to Ukraine. The interview was published less than a week after Vladimir Putin warned that if NATO countries allow Ukraine to use their long-range missiles for such strikes, it would mean that these countries “are at war with Russia.” Russia “will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us,” according to Putin, who has earlier said that Russia will resume nuclear tests if the U.S. does.*
2. The number of Ukrainians and Russians killed or wounded in the war has reached roughly one million, WSJ reported, citing Ukrainian and Western estimates. Ukraine’s and Russia’s casualties are estimated to have totaled 480,000 and 600,000, respectively, this daily reported. Mobilization for the Ukrainian army, which is expected to help compensate for its personnel losses, is on track, but it would take another three months before the newly-trained troops could make an impact on the battlefield, head of the defense committee of Ukraine’s parliament, Oleksandr Zavitnevych, told the FT. One obstacle for this recruitment campaign is that Ukraine has lost at least 10 million people to occupation or as refugees in the past decade, according to Ukrainian government estimates cited by WSJ. About one year ago, U.S. officials estimated that the total number of Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded since the war in Ukraine began was nearing half a million, according to NYT. Thus, if these latest estimates are accurate, then casualties have doubled in about one year.
3. Russian authorities have reportedly ordered their armed forces to push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region by mid-October 2024 and to establish a "buffer zone" into Ukrainian border areas along the international border with Russia in northeastern Ukraine by the end of October, according to ISW. It has also been reported by The Guardian that Russia’s military had anticipated a possible Ukrainian advance into the southwestern Kursk region for months prior to the actual incursion in early August.
4. Ukraine’s electricity deficit this winter could reach as much as 6GW, around a third of anticipated peak demand, according to the IEA. “It’s time for everybody to understand that this winter could be consequential in Ukraine,” Fatih Birol, director-general of this agency, told the FT. Half of all Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been destroyed, roughly equivalent to the capacity of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, according to FT. 
5. U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic party's presidential nominee, will hold separate meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sept. 26 to discuss what he calls Ukraine’s “victory plan.” Zelenskyy has refused to disclose the plan, which he also wants to share with Donald Trump. The Ukrainian leader did disclose that "most of the decisions on the plan depend” on Biden, and that these decisions need to be made in October to December, according to Ukrainska Pravda. Zelenskyy’s decision to focus on obtaining Biden’s support during his visit to the U.S. is understandable, given that a potential Trump administration's approach to ending the war calls for a "demilitarized zone" on Ukrainian territory and a guarantee of its neutrality, according to Republican vice-presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• At the opening of the 68th meeting of the IAEA General Conference, Rosatom Director General Alexey Likhachev met with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi. The two "synchronized watches" on the situation around the Zaporizhzhia NPP and the Kursk NPP. In his address to the meeting, Grossi said: “The situation at the ZNPP remains precarious. Regular explosions, drone attacks, gunfire; repeated interruptions of external power supply, among other challenges, increase the risk of a nuclear accident.” Both Likhachev and Ukraine’s Minister of Energy German Galushchenko made statements at the meeting. (IAEA, 09.16.24, Rosatom, 09.16.24)
• On Sept. 20, a Russian suicide drone was recorded flying in close proximity to the Khmelnitsky NPP, Ukrainian officials told Ukrainska Pravda, (RM. 09.20.24)
  • Currently, 55% of Ukraine’s energy is generated by its three operating nuclear power stations—the one in Zaporizhzhia, which is the largest nuclear plant in Europe, was captured by Russia in 2022 and has largely been shut down. (Politico, 09.15.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu held talks in Pyongyang with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. "As part of the ongoing strategic dialogue between our countries, a substantive exchange of views took place with Korean colleagues on a wide range of issues on the bilateral and international agenda," state news agency RIA quoted the Security Council as saying. (Bloomberg, 09.17.24, Reuters, 09.17.24)
• North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui has flown to Russia to attend the fourth Eurasian Women's Forum and the BRICS Women's Forum in Saint Petersburg, Russia's embassy in North Korea said on Sept. 16. (Reuters, 09.16.24)
• New details about North Korea’s nuclear bomb-building activity have stoked fears that Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un could supply nations pursuing illicit weapons programs. The IAEA started its annual general conference in Vienna on Sept. 16, days after Pyongyang revealed images of a factory where uranium isotopes can be separated to fuel nuclear weapons. (Bloomberg, 09.17.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu arrived in Iran on an unannounced visit. Shoigu gave Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian a message from Russian leader Vladimir Putin during a meeting in Tehran, Russian state television reported Sept. 17. Pezeshkian told Shoigu on Sept. 17 that relations between Tehran and Moscow would develop in “a continuous and lasting way,” state media reported. Shoigu also met with his counterpart Ali Akbar Ahmadian. (Bloomberg, 09.17.24, Reuters, 09.17.24)

• The U.S. and U.K. are increasingly concerned that Russia is sharing with Iran secret information and technology that could bring it closer to being able to build nuclear weapons, in exchange for Tehran providing Moscow with ballistic missiles for its war in Ukraine. The Kremlin has increased its cooperation with Iran over its ambitions to obtain atomic weapons in recent months, according to Western officials familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss assessments that haven’t been made public. (Bloomberg, 09.14.24)
• Pezeshkian claims that Iran has not transferred any weapons to Russia since he took office in late July and seemed to open the door for direct talks with the United States over nuclear issues, but only if Washington shows it is not "hostile" toward the Islamic republic. The 69-year-old Pezeshkian also took a belligerent tone, declaring that his country will never give up its controversial missile program. (RFE/RL, 09.16.24)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• In a report published this week, the IEA said Ukraine’s electricity deficit this winter could reach as much as 6GW, around a third of anticipated peak demand. The power shortfall this summer was 2.5GW when Kyiv was already enduring long blackouts. “It’s time for everybody to understand that this winter could be consequential in Ukraine,” Fatih Birol, director-general of the IEA, told the FT. “It is the most pressing energy security issue today in the world.” Half of all Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been destroyed, roughly equivalent to the capacity of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. (FT, 09.20.24)
• With over 6 million fleeing Ukraine since the start of the war in February 2022, according to the United Nations, and Russia seizing further land, the total population on Kyiv-controlled territory has now dropped to between 25 million and 27 million, according to previously undisclosed Ukrainian government estimates. (WSJ,  09.16.24)
• Ukrainian units have inspected and demined 5308 sq km of territory since the launch of the Russian invasion, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported. (Korrespondent.net, 09.20.24)
• Ukraine on Sept. 16 invited the U.N. and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to visit territory it has captured in its six-week-old military incursion into Russia's Kursk region to demonstrate its adherence to humanitarian law, in a move the Kremlin called a "provocation" even as it ordered that Russia's army beef up its ranks. (RFE/RL, 09.16.24)
• European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen travelled to Kyiv on Sept. 20, where she announced a €35bn EU loan for Ukraine as part of a G-7 plan to raise $50bn on the back of future profits from frozen Russian state assets. Other G-7 members will pay up the difference to the $50bn which was agreed earlier this year but has been marred by delays. The final amount of €35bn comes as a compromise allowing the U.S. to come in at a later date and thus decrease EU exposure. (FT, 09.20.24)
  • The EU is preparing to provide up to €40bn in new loans for Ukraine by the end of the year regardless of U.S. participation, after a G-7 plan to use frozen Russian assets to aid Kyiv faltered. The unilateral push comes amid concern in Brussels that Hungary will prevent the bloc from delivering safeguards that the U.S. needs for it to participate in the frozen asset scheme, according to three people involved in the talks. The funds are intended to aid the financial stability of Ukraine, which faces a $38bn financing gap in 2025, according to Kyiv and the IMF. The country relies on foreign aid to keep functioning as Russia steps up attacks on its infrastructure. (FT, 09.17.24)
  • Ukraine plans to direct €35 billion from the EU to the energy and security sectors, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during a joint press conference with von der Leyen Sept. 20. (Korrespondent.net, 09.20.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• On Sept. 14, the Ukrainian military reportedly insisted that even as Russia had been counterattacking in some locations in the Kursk region, they remained on the offensive along other parts of the Kursk front, but their advances have slowed. Maps of the battlefield compiled by independent groups based on satellite images and battlefield footage show that Russian troops have regained some territory around the bulge of land seized by Ukraine this week.  (NYT, 09.14.24, NYT, 09.17.24)
  • The front line has moved again in the past few days, after Moscow began a concerted counterattack last week in the area. Maps of the battlefield compiled by independent groups based on satellite images and battlefield footage show that Russian troops have regained some territory around the bulge of land seized by Ukraine. (NYT, 09.17.24)
  • When Zelenskyy first broached the Kursk region offensive earlier this year and pushed for it, then commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces Gen. Valery Zaluzhniy, and Emil Ishkulov, commander of Ukraine's 80th Air Assault Brigade, opposed it, according to Politico. Zaluzhniy’s objection to the incursion, meanwhile, was that there was no clear second step after the border had been successfully breached by elite Ukrainian units drawn from four brigades, according to two high-ranking Ukrainian military officials. Zaluzhniy queried: once you have the bridgehead, what then? “He never got a clear answer from Zelenskyy,” said one of the officials, according to Politico. “He felt it was a gamble,” he said. Both Zaluzhniy and Ishkulov were subsequently fired. (RM, 09.17.24)
    • Russia’s military had anticipated a possible Ukrainian incursion into the southwestern Kursk region for months, according to documents seen by The Guardian. Russian military documents, dated as early as Jan. 4, discuss the “potential for a breakthrough at the state border,” The Guardian reported. A document from Feb. 19 reportedly predicted “a rapid push from the Sumy region into Russian territory, up to a depth of 80 kilometers [50 miles].” Another warning from mid-June indicated that the Ukrainian army aimed to capture Sudzha and disrupt Russian supply lines by targeting a key bridge over the Seim River. (MT/AFP, 09.20.24)
    • Russian authorities have reportedly tasked Russian forces with pushing Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast by mid-October 2024 and establishing a "buffer zone" into Ukrainian border areas along the international border with Russia in northeastern Ukraine by the end of October—significant undertakings that the Russian military is very unlikely to achieve in such a short period of time. Ukrainian newswire RBC-Ukraine reported Sept. 19 that unspecified sources stated that Russian forces have concentrated 37,000 personnel in Kursk Oblast to push Ukrainian forces out. (ISW, 09.19.24)
• On Sept. 16, a senior Ukrainian military intelligence official was reported to have assessed that Russia had so far committed 38,000 men in the Kursk region, including assault brigades redeployed from southern Ukraine, but the counterattack was “still not large-scale.” (FT, 09.16.24)
• On Sept. 16, the Ukrainian authorities said that they had repelled a “massive” Russian attack on Kyiv in the early morning hours. They said it was the eighth attack on the Ukrainian capital in just over two weeks, in what appears to be an escalation by Russia of its long-running air campaign against the city. Officials said most of the incoming Russian drones had been intercepted. (NYT, 09.17.24, NYT, 09.16.24)
• Ukraine’s OSINT group Deep State reported in its Sept. 17 assessment that Ukrainian Defense Forces regained their position near Torske, while the Russian forces advanced near Kolesnykivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Novohrodivka, in Hrodivka and Zhelane Pershne. Deep State then reported in its Sept. 18 assessment that the Russian forces advanced near Obukhivka, Pishchane, Marfopol, Ukrayinka, and Zalizne. Deep State then reported in its Sept. 19 assessment that the Russian forces had advanced near New Iork, Ivanivske, Halytsynivka and Toretsk. (RM, 09.20.24)
• On Sept. 17, Russian forces continued to advance toward Pokrovsk, an important transport hub in eastern Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 09.17.24)
• On Sept. 18, Ukraine said it destroyed a large weapons stockpile in Russia using long-range drones to stage the attacks. About 100 explosive-laden unmanned aircraft destroyed a large cache of Iskander and Tochka-U missiles as well as glide bombs in Toropets, a town in the Tver region of western Russia, Ukrainian military officials familiar with the matter said. North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles were also located at the storage facility, said a Ukrainian Defense Ministry official, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity. The facility was situated nearly 500 kilometers (310 miles) from Ukraine’s northern border. (Bloomberg, 09.18.24, WP, 09.18.24)
  • Sensors detected seismic activity equal to that of a minor earthquake, and NASA satellites picked up heat sources that suggested that 14 square kilometers of territory were affected by fires. (RFE/RL, 09.19.24)
  • A source within Ukrainian special services told Ukrainian outlet Suspilne on Sept. 18 that drone operators from Ukraine's Security Service (SBU), Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and Ukraine's Special Operations Forces (SSO) struck the facility at the Russian Ministry of Defense Main Missile and Artillery Directorate's 107th Arsenal in Toropets, Tver Oblast. (ISW, 09.18.24)
  • Russian military blogger Mikhail Zvinchuk, who writes under the handle Rybar, rejected the official story that the explosions in Toropets were caused by falling debris from drones. "This is obviously not the case," Zvinchuk wrote on his popular Telegram channel with 1.3 million followers, adding that Ukraine launched drone attacks across Russia, with air defenses operating in the Bryansk, Kursk, Oryol and Smolensk regions. (WP, 09.18.24)
  • The Toropets showcases Ukraine's own military innovations, as it has developed a fleet of drones that can strike deep into Russia. Last week, Kyiv forces launched a major drone attack on Moscow and eight other regions, though the results pale in comparison with the fireball in Toropets. (WP, 09.18.24)
• On Sept. 18, a spokesman from Ukraine's military administration in the region told AFP that Russia's counteroffensive to retake Ukrainian-held territory in the southwestern Kursk region has been "stopped.” (MT/AFP, 09.18.24)
• On Sept. 18, the Russian military claimed to have captured the town of Ukrainsk as Moscow continues a slow but steady advance in eastern Ukraine. Control of Ukrainsk, confirmed by geolocated battlefield footage analyzed by independent groups, brings Russia one step closer to its long-held goal of seizing all of the eastern Donetsk region. Ukrainsk, once home to 10,000 residents, lies on the path to the city of Kurakhove, a defensive stronghold. (NYT, 09.18.24)
• On Sept. 19, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine's incursion into the Kursk region had resulted in the Russian military diverting 40,000 troops to the area. (RFE/RL, 09.19.24)
• On Sept. 19, a Russian missile struck an old people’s home in Sumy city, Ukraine, killing at least one and hospitalizing nine others, said Sumy’s region Gov. Volodymyr Artiukh. (FT, 09.20.24)
• On Sept. 20, the British Defense Ministry released a map of the battlefield situation in Ukraine and Russia that shows ongoing Russian attacks toward Kupiansk, Donetsk and Luhansk with heavy fighting ongoing. (RM, 09.20.24)
• The number of Ukrainians and Russians killed or wounded in the grinding 2½-year war has reached roughly one million. A confidential Ukrainian estimate from earlier this year put the number of dead Ukrainian troops at 80,000 and the wounded at 400,000, according to people familiar with the matter. Western intelligence estimates of Russian casualties vary, with some putting the number of dead as high as nearly 200,000 and wounded at around 400,000. (WSJ,  09.16.24)
• Over 70,000 Russian soldiers have been confirmed killed in Ukraine since the Kremlin launched its invasion more than two and a half years ago, according to an independent tally by the BBC’s Russian service and the independent Mediazona news website. (MT, 09.20.24)
• Ukrainian officials say mobilization is on track, but it would take another three months before the newly-trained troops could make an impact on the battlefield, the head of the defense committee of Ukraine’s parliament, Oleksandr Zavitnevych, told the FT. Zelenskyy stated in an interview with CNN on Sept. 13 that Ukraine "needs 14 brigades to be ready" for an unspecified requirement and that Ukraine has not been able to equip "even four" of these brigades with slowly arriving Western aid. (ISW, 09.16.24, FT, 09.16.24)
  • One of the key reasons Zelenskyy refuses to mobilize the key cohort of men aged between 18 and 25—typically the bulk of any fighting force—is because most of these people haven’t had children yet, according to the former Ukrainian officials. Should the recruits of that age group die or become incapacitated, future demographic prospects would dim further, Ukrainian demographers say. (WSJ, 09.16.24)
• Zelenskyy stated that the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian artillery ammunition usage was 12-to-1 in favor of Russian forces prior to the incursion in Kursk Oblast and that the incursion intended to force the Russian military to redeploy forces to Russia from Ukraine. (ISW, 09.16.24)
• Ukraine has ramped up domestic drone production to levels where they are now achieving parity with Russia in the skies, officials claim. (RFE/RL, 09.16.24)
• Russia’s FSB said Sept. 17 that its agents killed a suspected Ukrainian military intelligence officer allegedly plotting to assassinate a Russian defense industry executive. (MT/AFP, 09.17.24)
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov plans to fire almost all of his deputies. The probable reason is their ineffectiveness in the positions they hold, a source in the Defense Forces told RBC-Ukraine. The source also confirmed the information previously published in the media about the dismissal of two deputy heads of the Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate, Kirill Budanov. (RBC.ua, 09.20.24)
• Ukraine’s military personnel and civil servants are prohibited from using Telegram on work devices. (RBC.ua, 09.20.24)
• The U.S. has warned its allies that Russia is targeting cargo shipping companies as it seeks to disrupt Ukraine’s partners, according to people familiar with the matter. While Russia has focused cyberattacks and other so-called hybrid actions on shipping firms and ports before, its hostile actions are evolving with intensified sabotage as Moscow’s appetite for taking greater risks increases, the people said. (Bloomberg, 09.19.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• U.S. military aid packages for Ukraine have been smaller in recent months, as the stockpiles of weapons and equipment that the Pentagon is willing to send Kyiv from its own inventory have dwindled. The shortage means the Biden administration still has $6 billion in funds available to arm and equip Ukraine, but the Pentagon lacks the inventory it is willing to deliver more than two years into the war, two U.S. officials told CNN. Since April, the value of each military aid package to Ukraine has been significantly smaller, with none exceeding $400 million and most in the $125 million to $250 million range. In 2022 and 2023, the Pentagon regularly announced packages worth between $600 million to $800 million, with the highest being $2.85 billion in January 2023. The Pentagon has asked Congress for more time to spend that money before it expires at the end of September, according to Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary. (CNN, 09.17.24)
• U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic party's presidential nominee, will hold separate meetings with Zelenskyy on Sept. 26, the White House said in a statement on Sept. 19. Zelenskyy is expected to push for NATO and EU membership, economic and security agreements and a continued supply of more advanced weapons as part of his “victory plan” when he visits the U.S., according to people familiar with the matter. He’s due to present the plan to Biden when they meet on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly (UNGA) later this month. Zelenskyy is to address UNGA on Sept. 25. He is also keen to share the plans with Harris and former President Donald Trump. (Bloomberg, 09.19.24, Meduza, 09.19.24, RFE/RL, 09.19.24)
• Zelenskyy, at a press conference with von der Leyen, stated that Ukraine never had a "Plan A" for winning the war against Russia. "Our plan. Yesterday, a journalist asked me a question: What would happen if President Biden did not support my plan? Do you have a ‘Plan B’? I honestly answered that we are already in 'Plan B.' We are living it and fighting," said the president. (RBC.ua, 09.20.24)
  • "Most of the decisions on the plan depend on him. On other allies as well, but there are points that depend on the positive will and support of the United States. I really hope that he will support this plan," Zelenskyy said of Biden. "The plan is designed for decisions that must take place from October to December... Then we believe that the plan will work," he said. (Ukrainska Pravda, 09.20.24)
  • All points of the plan have been "worked out," Zelenskyy said in his evening address. "There is and cannot be any alternative to peace, any freezing of the war or any other manipulations that will simply move Russian aggression to another stage. We need reliable and long-term security for Ukraine, and therefore for all of Europe," the president said. (RFE/RL, 09.18.24)
  • Harris wrote on her X account: “Next week at the White House, I will meet with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine for the seventh time. President Biden and I have been clear: Our commitment to the Ukrainian people as they fight for their freedom is unshakeable.” (RM, 09.20.24)
• Russia has now moved 90% of its air bases that house bomber jets out of ATACMS range, U.S. and European military officials said, in anticipation that Ukraine could soon be allowed to fire the missiles across the border. (NYT, 09.14.24)
• Artillery shells sold by Indian arms makers have been diverted by European customers to Ukraine and New Delhi has not intervened to stop the trade despite protests from Moscow, according to 11 Indian and European government and defense industry officials, as well as a Reuters analysis of commercially available customs data. The transfer of munitions to support Ukraine's defense against Russia has occurred for more than a year, according to the sources and the customs data. Indian arms-export regulations limit the use of weaponry to the declared purchaser, who risks future sales being terminated if unauthorized transfers occur. The Kremlin has raised the issue on at least two occasions, including during a July meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Indian counterpart, three Indian officials said. (RFE/RL, 09.19.24)
• With war raging in Ukraine, Western governments are hoovering up the Balkan region’s ammunition and mortars. Serbian arms exports have quadrupled since 2020; some €800m ($890m)-worth of its ammo has gone to Ukraine since the invasion. Bosnia’s exports in the first four months of 2024 nearly doubled compared with the same period last year. (The Economist, 09.19.24)
• Ukraine is taking a cautious approach toward employing its new F-16s, the top U.S. Air Force officer in Europe said Sept. 17. “The pilots are new to it, so they’re not going to put them at the riskiest missions,” Gen. James Hecker, the head of U.S. Air Forces in Europe and NATO Allied Air Command, told reporters Sept. 17 at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber conference. The goal, which Hecker said is backed by U.S. Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the head of U.S. European Command and the NATO Supreme Allied Commander, is to enable Ukraine’s air force to do more joint operations with the country’s ground forces. (Air and Space Forces, 09.17.24)
• The first group of Ukrainian pilots has completed training in France on Alpha Jet aircraft, the Joint Chiefs of Staff of France reported on the X social network Sept. 20. (Korrespondent.net, 09.20.24)
• Ukraine’s Defense Ministry received the first 40.7 million euros from the aid package from Denmark, which was directed to Ukrainian weapons production. (Ukrainska Pravda, 09.20.24)
• The European Parliament called on member states to lift restrictions on Ukraine's ability to use Western-provided long-range systems to strike military objects in Russia. (ISW, 09.19.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The EU is considering extending its sanctions regime against Russia to include the foreign subsidiaries of European companies in order to restrict the flow of sensitive goods reaching the country’s war machine, a senior official has said. “A lot of the product going through China [to Russia] is coming from subsidiaries of western companies in south-east Asia,” said EU sanctions envoy David O’Sullivan at an event in Brussels on Sept. 18. “We are focusing our efforts more on trying to stop the transshipment from there through to China.” O’Sullivan said that an extension of the re-export controls to subsidiaries of European companies was discussed at a meeting between business and European commissioners Valdis Dombrovskis and Mairead McGuinness last week. (FT, 09.19.24)
• The United States on Sept. 19 imposed sanctions on a network of five entities and one individual for allegedly enabling payments between Russia and North Korea, the Treasury Department said. The entities and the individual are based in Russia and the Georgian region of South Ossetia, the department said in a news release. They are accused of actions that “supported ongoing efforts to establish illicit payment mechanisms” between Russia and the North Korea. "Today's action holds accountable parties that have assisted [North Korea] and Russian sanctions evasion," the Treasury Department said. Western powers have accused cash-strapped North Korea of selling ammunition to Russia in defiance of sanctions over the more than 30-month-old war in Ukraine, and North Korea has recently bolstered military ties with Russia. (RFE/RL, 09.19.24)
• U.S. authorities arrested a Russian businessman in Florida for allegedly smuggling microelectronics that can be used in drones to Russia, the U.S. Justice Department announced Sept. 16. The businessman, identified as Denis Postovoy, was accused of exporting microelectronics through foreign companies without the required licenses, even after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Moscow following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 09.17.24)
• Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders) said it’s ending operations in Russia after 32 years, though the humanitarian organization expressed hope that it will eventually be allowed to resume work in the country. The Justice Ministry sent notification last month of a decision to withdraw MSF (Netherlands) from the register of affiliate and representative offices of foreign non-governmental organizations, the aid group said in a website statement Sept. 16. (Bloomberg, 09.16.24)
• Ramzan Kadyrov, the notorious head of Russia’s Chechnya region, accused Elon Musk of remotely disabling a Tesla Cybertruck that he said had been used in Russia’s war against Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 09.19.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• Some of Ukraine’s allies are starting to talk about how the fight against Russia’s invasion might end. As part of their discussions of strategy for the next year, officials are more seriously gaming out how a negotiated end to the conflict and an off-ramp could take shape, according to people familiar with the matter who asked for anonymity to discuss private deliberations. With no sign that Russia has scaled back its objectives, the prospect of real negotiations still remains distant, they said. (Bloomberg, 09.17.24)
• Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski stated that Crimea plays a decisive role in the issue of possible peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. That is why one of the options for resolving the issue of the peninsula could be to transfer it under a U.N. mandate. (RBC.ua, 09.19.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Defense ministers from nine eastern European nations urged NATO to prepare a “collective answer” to mounting cases of airspace violations by Russia among nations bordering Ukraine. Ministers from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia signed a joined statement expressing “profound concern” over incursions into NATO states by Russian drones and missiles. (Bloomberg, 09.18.24)
  • Latvia’s president said NATO needs to have the ability to shoot down Russian drones that stray into member states’ territory as he called for increased air defenses on the alliance’s eastern flank. “NATO must adapt to the new reality — and we must shoot down drones,” President Edgars Rinkevics said. (Bloomberg, 09.19.24)
• NATO’s outgoing secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg has warned against EU defense efforts duplicating or competing with the U.S.-led military alliance, given scarce funding and personnel. In his farewell after leading NATO for a decade, Stoltenberg warned against “isolationism” among members of the military alliance, saying its 32 members must be "willing to pay the price for peace" in the face of an emboldened Russia. (RFE/RL, 09.19.24, FT, 09.20.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• European officials are increasingly concerned about Russian military cooperation with both China and Iran, as Moscow shares cutting-edge defense knowhow with two of its most important suppliers for the war in Ukraine. Over the past week, U.S. and European officials have shared intelligence on how much military knowhow and defense insight Russia is providing China and Iran, with potentially major ramifications for the two countries’ future military capabilities. (FT, 09.16.24)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms

• “If the order is given, we will begin tests at any moment," according to the head of Russia’s Central Test Site on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago, which hosted an estimated total of more than 200 nuclear detonations before 1990. “If the task is set to resume testing, it will be completed within the specified time frame,”  Rear Adm. Andrei Sinitsyn told government-owned daily Rossiiskaya Gazeta. “The test site is ready to resume full-scale testing activities,” the admiral was quoted as saying in this daily’s Sept. 17 issue. He also said the test site’s personnel “regularly train” to repel potential attacks by air and even sea drones as well as by sabotage groups. (RM, 09.20.24)
• Deputy Chairman of Security Council Dmitry Medvedev wrote: “No one needs a nuclear conflict. This is a very bad story with a very difficult outcome. That is why the decision to use nuclear weapons (non-strategic or even more so strategic) has not been made so far. Although, frankly speaking, there are formal prerequisites for this, understandable to the entire world community and consistent with our doctrine of nuclear deterrence. Kursk, for example. But Russia is showing patience. After all, it is obvious that a nuclear response is an extremely difficult decision with irreversible consequences. However... all patience comes to an end.” (Telegram, 09.14.24)

Counterterrorism:

• Russian law enforcement authorities said Sept. 18 that they uncovered and dismantled a female terrorist cell based in the republic of Tatarstan. The FSB accused the women of “carrying out targeted work to spread terrorist ideology on the territory of [Russia], based on the doctrine of creating the so-called world caliphate.” (MT/AFP, 09.18.24)
• Mali’s armed forces said an Islamist group with allegiance to Al Qaeda was responsible for an assault had targeted a military police school in Bamako. The local junta has ejected the thousands of French forces that had been helping tackle the Islamist insurgency, embracing a military alliance with Russia and mercenaries from Russia’s Wagner private military group instead. (NYT, 09.17.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• Shoigu met Sept. 16 with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. The discussions focused on strengthening bilateral relations and addressing international and regional security issues, according to the Syrian Presidential Office. (Bloomberg, 09.17.24, Al Mayadeen, 09.16.24)

Cyber security/AI: 

• In a statement on Sept. 16, a group of influential AI scientists raised concerns that the technology they helped build could cause serious harm. They warned that AI technology could, within a matter of years, overtake the capabilities of its makers and that ''loss of human control or malicious use of these AI systems could lead to catastrophic outcomes for all of humanity.” Scientists from the United States, China, Britain, Singapore, Canada and elsewhere signed the statement. (NYT, 09.17.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Since late April, at least 17 cargoes of crude and refined products have left Russian ports on ships sanctioned by the U.S., U.K. or European Union in response to Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Most have been carried on vessels that were owned by Russian tanker giant Sovcomflot PJSC at the time they were designated. In the immediate aftermath of sanctions, the vast majority of the tankers targeted were left idling, some for as many as eight months. (Bloomberg, 09.20.24)
• Tankers carrying Russian oil are still conducting cargo switches with other vessels off Greece’s south coast, despite Greek military drills aimed at deterring such activities.. (Bloomberg, 09.20.24)
• The IEA is anticipating an end to Russian gas flows through Ukraine after a transit deal expires at the end of the year, warning of a tough winter ahead for Kyiv and its neighbors. . (Bloomberg, 09.19.24)
• Ukraine is in talks about supplying Azeri gas to Europe through its network of pipelines but hasn’t yet reached an agreement. Kyiv and Moscow are both willing to find a solution that could involve swapping supply with Azerbaijan, according to people familiar with the talks speaking on condition of anonymity. Ukraine wants to prevent Russian gas traversing its territory but there is acknowledgment that some gas sold as Azeri could originate in Russia, one of the people said. (Bloomberg, 09.19.24)
• Russia’s Gazprom PJSC agreed with China National Petroleum Corp. to ramp up gas flows on the Power of Siberia pipeline to maximum capacity by year’s end, ahead of schedule. (Bloomberg, 09.20.24)
• India won’t buy liquefied natural gas from a project in Russia that is sanctioned by the U.S., Oil Minister Hardeep Puri said. Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 facility, sanctioned by the U.S. last year, is struggling to find buyers. (Bloomberg, 09.19.24)
• In the economic blowback from its invasion of Ukraine, Russia sought to pivot away from trade with the West and build new sanctions-defying links with the Asian powerhouses China and India. Two-and-a-half years later, the flow of Russian oil has mostly rerouted along those lines. The profits have powered the Kremlin's war machine. But, as sanctions grow more severe and its aging infrastructure proves inadequate, Russia is groping to shore up its wartime economy by opening new avenues for trade in its other commodities. (WSJ, 09.20.24)

Climate change:

• The host country for the upcoming U.N. COP29 climate summit skipped over the transition from fossil fuels in a list of priorities for the gathering in Azerbaijan, focusing instead on energy storage, waste methane and war. (FT, 09.17.24)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Lavrov will not meet his U.S. counterpart Antony Blinken despite both attending UNGA in New York this weekend, Moscow said Sept. 20. (MT/AFP, 09.20.24)
• A selection of Russian reactions to the 2^nd assassination attempt on Donald Trump:
• Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia: "It’s interesting to imagine what would happen if it turned out that the latest failed shooting attempt on Trump by [Ryan Wesley] Routh,  who has been recruiting mercenaries for the Ukrainian military, was actually hired by the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv for this assassination attempt.” (News.ru/Medvedev’s Telegram channel, 09.16.24)
• Alexey Naumov, expert at the Russian International Affairs Council suggested that the assassination attempt "will give additional ammunition to Republican activists-propagandists," but it will have little impact on their candidate’s ratings. "I don’t think it will have much effect because the narrative that Trump is a people’s hero whom his enemies are trying to kill has already been played out, at least partially. I don’t think Trump can continue to ride that wave in the ratings," Naumov predicts. In his opinion, in the remaining weeks before the election, Trump needs to challenge Harris on her own turf by presenting concrete political initiatives. (RBC, 09.16.24) 
• Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s press secretary: 
  • “This is not quite our business. We are, of course, closely following the information coming from the United States. We see how tense the situation is, including among  political competitors. The political struggle is intensifying, and quite various methods are being used.” (TASS/News.ru, 09.16.24)
  • When asked about the Kremlin thinks about the possible connection of shooter Ryan Wesley Routh to Ukraine, Peskov said: "It is not us but the U.S. security services who should be thinking about that. Anyway, playing with fire has consequences, First of all, this should be a great concern and a headache of the U.S. security services.” (Interfax, 09.16.24)
• Aleksey Pushkov, chairman of the Federation Council of Russia's Information Policy Commission, wrote that competitors are staging assassination attempts on him to break his fighting spirit. He also noted that there have been no attempts on the current president of the country, Joe Biden, or on another presidential candidate, Kamala Harris. This, in his opinion, is absolutely logical. “The minimum goal of such attempts may not even be elimination, but the constant intimidation of Trump to break his fighting spirit ... For the "deep state," there is only one target in the USA — Trump,” wrote Pushkov. (News.ru, 09.16.24)
• Facebook owner Meta said that it would ban Russian state media outlets from its apps due to "foreign interference activity." The ban comes after the United States accused the Kremlin-funded RT news network and employees of funneling $10 million through shell companies to covertly fund influence campaigns on social media platforms including TikTok, Instagram, X and YouTube. (MT/AFP, 09.17.24)
• After Biden ended his presidential campaign, Russian efforts to influence the U.S. election shifted to smearing Vice President Kamala Harris with doctored and misleading videos, according to new research from Microsoft. Microsoft President Brad Smith warned the danger of foreign interference in the U.S. election will surge in the final two days of the presidential campaign. (Bloomberg, 09.17.24, Bloomberg, 09.18.24)²
  • Russian propagandists are escalating attacks on Harris with false but widely circulated videos on social media, including one that featured an actor accusing Harris of a nonexistent hit-and-run that paralyzed a girl, Microsoft researchers said Sept. 17. (WP, 09.17.24)
• The Biden administration and U.S. lawmakers promised to continue fighting for the freedom of Russian and Belarusian political prisoners as they welcomed Vladimir Kara-Murza back to the U.S. Capitol. (RFE/RL, 09.17.24)
• The Kremlin is turning to Alphabet Inc.’s YouTube to get its message out to the world even as it’s throttling access for ordinary Russians to the U.S. social media site. Putin’s administration resumed posting videos on the channel in the past two weeks for the first time in six months. (Bloomberg, 09.19.24)
• Bashkir activist Zagir Mukhamedyarov, who fled Russia fearing arrest, has been allowed to stay in the United States. (RFE/RL, 09.20.24)
• Russell Bentley, a Texas man who as the “Donbas Cowboy” gained notoriety for joining Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine, was tortured before being killed, and his alleged abductors tried to cover the death by blowing up a car containing his body, Russian authorities said. In a statement released Sept. 20, the Investigative Committee said four men had been charged in connection with Bentley’s death in April. Bentley, 64, was a fixture in the low-level Russian incursion in Ukraine dating back to 2014. Calling himself the “Donbas Cowboy,” Bentley became a popular figure on Russian propaganda networks for his criticism of the U.S. government, and he later gained Russian citizenship. (RFE/RL, 09.20.24)
• Alsu Kurmasheva, an RFE/RL journalist who was released in August in a major prisoner swap between Russia and the West, is among four reporters to be honored with the prestigious 2024 International Press Freedom Award, the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) has announced. (RFE/RL, 09.20.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• A political activist in St. Petersburg known for his pacifist protests was stabbed to death, local media reported Sept. 17. Initial unconfirmed reports from the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Mash na Moika claimed that a 20-year-old “queer blogger” identified as “Alexander S.” had confessed to murdering activist Vitaly Ioffe. (MT/AFP, 09.17.24)
• The Moscow-based weekly newspaper Sobesednik will cease publication following its designation as a “foreign agent” last week, one of its reporters told independent media on Sept. 17. (MT/AFP, 09.17.24)
• A Russian man previously convicted of criticizing the war in Ukraine during a street interview had his sentence toughened on Sept. 17 from five years of hard labor to five years in prison, state media reported. Yuri Kokhovets, 38, accused Russian soldiers of shooting civilians in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha "for no reason at all" in a spontaneous interview he gave to U.S.-funded news outlet Radio Liberty in July 2022. (MT/AFP, 09.17.24)
• Russia's Supreme Court rejected appeals filed by four Crimean Tatars against the lengthy prison terms they were handed on extremism charges they have rejected, lawyer Emil Kurbedinov said on Sept. 20. (RFE/RL, 09.20.24)
• Russian media reports on Sept. 19 said the Investigative Committee has launched a probe against Kirill Martynov, the chief editor of the Latvia-based Novaya Gazeta Europe on a charge of "conducting activities of an undesirable organization." (RFE/RL, 09.19.24)
• Mikhail Afanasyev, the imprisoned editor in chief of the Novy fokus (New Focus) online newspaper covering the Siberian region of Khakassia, has been given a 2024 Free Media Award for journalistic bravery. (RFE/RL, 09.18.24)
• Russian authorities are developing a database of undocumented migrants who will face bans on driving, marrying and enrolling their children in school starting next year, as part of new laws aimed at tightening immigration control. (MT/AFP, 09.19.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• Putin signed a decree Sept. 16 establishing the staffing level of the Russian Armed Forces at 1.5 million combat personnel. This marks a 180,000-person increase from the last decree increasing the staffing level of the Russian Armed Forces, which Putin signed in December 2023. (ISW, 09.16.24)
  • Months before Putin’s inauguration in May, he met with Defense Ministry officials who pushed for a fresh round of mobilization to recruit more troops to offset Russia’s losses on the front line in Ukraine, said a person briefed on the exchange. Putin dismissed the idea, saying he wanted to use only those who were voluntarily signing military contracts, the person said. (WSJ, 09.19.24)
  • Russia has begun testing a website for its new digital military draft system, which could prevent men from leaving the country ahead of a planned call-up later this fall. (MT/AFP, 09.18.24)
• Putin made an unannounced visit Sept. 19 to a drone manufacturing facility in St. Petersburg that produces reconnaissance aircraft for the Russian military to use in Ukraine. Putin claimed that Russian companies delivered roughly 140,000 drones to Russian forces in 2023 and claimed that Russia plans to increase its drone production by ten-fold (to 1.4 million drones) in 2024. (MT/AFP, 09.19.24, ISW, 09.19.24)
• Two Russians on Sept. 20 set a record for the longest continuous stay on the International Space Station (ISS), according to Russian space agency Roskosmos. Roskosmos said Oleg Kononenko and Nikolai Chub broke the old record of 370 days, 21 hours and 22 minutes, which was set in September 2023 by Russians Sergei Prokopiev and Dmitry Petelin and American Francisco Rubio. (RFE/RL, 09.20.24) 

See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• A Russian man accused of helping organize attacks on allies of the late Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny was arrested in Poland, the Polish Prosecutor’s Office confirmed Sept. 20. Last week, Navalny’s team published an investigation claiming that Leonid Nevzlin, an exiled billionaire and associate of Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky, orchestrated the attack on Leonid Volkov in Lithuania earlier this year. Nevzlin was also accused of organizing attacks against Navalny aide Ivan Zhdanov in Switzerland and the wife of economist Maxim Mironov in Argentina. Nevzlin has denied having involvement in “any attacks on people, in any form whatsoever,” adding that “justice will confirm the absurdity and complete baselessness of the accusations against me.” According to Navalny’s team, Nevzlin allegedly ordered the attack on Volkov through a lawyer by the name of Anatoly Blinov. According to the independent investigative news outlet Agentstvo, Blinov once served on Gazprom-Media’s board of directors and now lives in Poland. (MT/AFP, 09.19.24)
• The estranged husband of Russia’s richest woman, Tatyana Bakalchuk, was accused of murder after a shooting outside the headquarters of the country’s biggest e-commerce platform, which they founded. Lawyers for Vladislav Bakalchuk said investigators had also accused him of attempted murder and attacking a police officer following the confrontation involving a group of men outside the central Moscow office of Wildberries, Interfax reported Sept. 19. They said he denied all the allegations and had been detained for 48 hours, according to the news service. Two people were killed and five injured, including two policemen, in the shooting on Sept. 18, Russia’s Investigative Committee said in a statement. (Bloomberg, 09.19.24)
• A Moscow court on Sept. 17 transferred Vyacheslav Akhmedov, the director of the Defense Ministry's Patriot Park -- a military-themed complex near Moscow -- to house arrest after he was arrested last month on fraud charges. The deputy chief of the Defense Ministry's Department for Innovative Development, Maj. Gen. Vladimir Shesterov, and former Deputy Defense Minister Pavel Popov were also arrested in the case. (RFE/RL, 09.17.24)
• A senior military official responsible for tank maintenance in central Russia was arrested on charges of accepting a bribe in exchange for preferential treatment in receiving government contracts, law enforcement authorities said Sept. 18. Maj. Gen. Denis Putilov, who leads the armored vehicle service of the Defense Ministry’s Central Military District, is accused of receiving 10 million rubles ($108,900) from a businessman for reducing oversight and providing advantages in contracts related to the repair and maintenance of combat vehicles. (MT/AFP, 09.18.24)
• TASS reported Sept. 16 that the Russian Investigative Committee detained the head of the Russian 4924th military representative office, Ivan Papulovsky, and his subordinate Grigory Zorin on the suspicion of accepting 11 million rubles ($120,300) in bribes over the span of three years. (ISW, 09.16.24)
• Russian media reported on Sept. 16 that a Moscow court agreed to proceed with the trial of French citizen Laurent Vinatier in a "special order" -- which guarantees a lighter sentence -- after he pleaded guilty to a charge of evading the responsibilities of a "foreign agent." (RFE/RL, 09.16.24)
• A court in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg on Sept. 16 sentenced a Russian man to eight years in prison for stabbing to death a 32-year-old postgraduate student from Gabon. The court found Daniil Fomi, guilty of murder. (RFE/RL, 09.16.24)
• Law enforcement authorities in the city of Chelyabinsk detained a vice principal and the head of a private security company following a hammer attack at a local school earlier this week, investigators said Sept. 18. Police said a 13-year-old student injured three classmates and a teacher with a hammer at School No. 68 on Sept. 16. (MT/AFP, 09.18.24)

• Russia’s FSB said Sept. 19 that its agents dismantled a migrant smuggling network allegedly led by a university instructor from Nigeria. The group’s alleged leader is a senior lecturer at the engineering academy of the People’s Friendship University of Russia (RUDN), who is originally from Nigeria. The smuggling network is accused of generating at least 60 million rubles ($650,000) since 2021 by providing fake Russian residence papers and visas through fictitious marriages and paternity documents. (MT/AFP, 09.19.24)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including  relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The IMF indefinitely postponed its first planned consultations with Russia since the start of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, amid criticism from EU states. (Bloomberg, 09.18.24)
• Russia has approved the construction of a petroleum product pipeline in the oil-rich Republic of Congo, as Moscow continues efforts to strengthen its influence in Africa. The project will involve a joint venture between Russian pipeline builder ZNGS Prometey, which will own 90% of the venture, and the National Petroleum Company of Congo. (MT/AFP, 09.17.24)
• Gold-rich Sudan discussed boosting cooperation in the mining sector with Russia, as Moscow strengthens ties with the North African nation’s military-led government amid a 17-month civil war. (Bloomberg, 09.18.24)
• Authorities in Moscow on Sept. 18 condemned deadly attacks that saw pagers used by the militant group Hezbollah explode near-simultaneously across Lebanon the day before, saying the blasts risked further destabilizing an already "explosive situation" in the region. (MT/AFP, 09.18.24)
• Hungary hosted a Russian business forum in Budapest on Sept. 20, showcasing booming links with Moscow that have alienated the country’s European Union and NATO allies. “The whole of Europe is doing business with Russia, though some of them are trying to deny that,” Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said at a briefing with Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko. “The difference is we don’t see a need to hide it.” (Bloomberg, 09.20.24)
• A trove of leaked records from a Russian disinformation campaign reveals how Moscow sought to discredit Ukraine and Western governments that support it while also trying to boost support for far-right political parties in the European Union. The documents obtained by a consortium of European media outlets and shared with Schemes, the investigative unit of RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, highlight the internal operations of the Social Design Agency, a Moscow-based company that the United States says has led the propaganda campaign at the Kremlin's behest.  (RFE/RL, 09.17.24)
• The Russian government has published a list of countries that, in the opinion of the Russian authorities, impose "destructive neoliberal ideological attitudes that contradict traditional Russian spiritual and moral values." The list includes 47 countries, including EU countries (except Hungary and Slovakia), Ukraine, the United States, Canada and Great Britain, as well as Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and New Zealand. Citizens of these countries, if they want to move to Russia, will be able to receive "humanitarian support." (Istories, 09.20.24)

Ukraine:

• Ryan Routh, the man named in multiple media reports as a suspect in an apparent assassination attempt on Trump Sept. 15, was one of thousands of foreign volunteers who headed to Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. But on arrival in the Polish border town of Medyka, he turned up at the office of the Ukrainian international legion only to be rejected. “They said ‘you’re 56, you’re old and you have no experience,’” Routh, speaking from Hawaii, told the Financial Times in an interview last year. “So why don’t you recruit and coordinate?” (FT, 09.16.24)
• Beyond the bombs and gunfire of Russia's war in Ukraine, a parallel economic war is raging. Its front line is on occupied Ukrainian farmlands, from which Russia and its partners have sold almost $1 billion in stolen grain on a burgeoning black market. (WSJ, 09.16.24)
• Russia is consolidating its hold on newly occupied areas of Ukraine by opening branches of its largest state banks Sberbank and VTB in cities such as Mariupol. (FT, 09.16.24)
• The Verkhovna Rada has recalled MP Maryana Bezuglya from the post of deputy head of the Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence. This decision was supported by 252 parliamentarians. (RBC.ua, 09.19.24)
• The governor of Russia's Astrakhan region, Igor Babushkin, appointed former Ukrainian lawmaker Andrei Derkach, who is wanted in Ukraine on treason and corruption charges, to the Russian parliament's upper chamber last week, media reports said on Sept. 16. (RFE/RL, 09.16.24)
• Ukraine’s central bank left interest rates unchanged for a second straight meeting in a sign that policymakers won’t tolerate higher inflation despite growing strains on the war-time budget. The National Bank of Ukraine left its key policy rate unchanged at 13%, it said Sept. 19. (Bloomberg, 09.19.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev told visiting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that Russia's military "cannot be defeated" in its war against Ukraine and instead urged support for a peace plans being pressed by China and Brazil, a consideration the German leader quickly rejected. "It is a fact that Russia cannot be defeated in the military sense," Toqaev on Sept. 16 told Scholz, who is in Astana as part of his historic trip to Central Asia. "A further escalation of war will lead to irreparable consequences for the whole of humanity and above all for the countries involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Toqaev added. Scholz disagreed with Toqaev's suggestion, saying Berlin was providing support to Kyiv because Russia had invaded Ukraine in an unprovoked attack in February 2022. (RFE/RL, 09.16.24, Kommersant, 09.16.24)
• For months, politics in Georgia have been roiled by a tussle between those advocating closer relations with the West and those who lean more toward Russia. Now, as the country prepares for critical elections in October, Bidzina Ivanishvili, the leader of the governing party has ignited a political firestorm by saying that Georgia should apologize for a 2008 war with Russia for which many Georgians blame Moscow. His comments at a rally in Gori, a town that was briefly occupied by Russian forces in 2008, were quickly condemned by pro-Western activists and the opposition. (NYT, 09.16.24)
• Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili urged two opposition forces to unite against the ruling party at parliamentary elections that she said would decide whether the country will join the European Union or return to Russia’s orbit. Billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili’s ruling Georgian Dream party is seeking to retain power after triggering mass protests with legislation the U.S. and the EU say resembles laws used by Putin to crush civil liberties in Russia. (Bloomberg, 09.17.24)
• An EU Monitoring Mission (EUMM) patrol in Georgia was temporarily detained on Sept. 17 near the boundary with the breakaway region of Abkhazia, the mission said in a statement. (RFE/RL, 09.17.24)
• Armenian officials continue to criticize the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) amid worsening bilateral relations between Armenia and Russia. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced on Sept. 18 that Armenia has frozen its CSTO membership due to the bloc’s failure to meet security obligations to Armenia and that, in his opinion, the CSTO is a threat to Armenia’s “security, future existence, sovereignty and statehood.” (ISW, 09.18.24)
• The Armenian Investigative Committee on Sept. 18 announced the arrest of three individuals accused of attempting to form an armed group to overthrow the Armenian government. The Armenian Investigative Committee stated that the three suspects, along with four accomplices not yet in Armenian detention, recruited Armenian citizens to undergo paid three-month military training at the “Arbat” military base in Rostov-on-Don, Rostov Oblast. (ISW, 09.18.24)
• U.K. foreign secretary David Lammy has been accused of a diplomatic blunder after he suggested that Azerbaijan had “liberated” the disputed Caucasus territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. (FT, 09.20.24)
• German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Sept. 16 gave a positive assessment of the support provided to Moldova in fending off hybrid Russian attacks and pledged further assistance. (RFE/RL, 09.16.24)
• Russian citizens who permanently reside in Latvia but have failed the required Latvian-language exam have started receiving letters warning them to leave within 30 days or face "forced deportation." (RFE/RL, 09.16.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Ukrainians are not ready to give up their land, especially among those soldiers in Donbas who have been fighting for it for the past 10 years. “There would be a coup d’état, because this idea would be promoted by those who sit in peaceful cities. … No one here would support it — this land is now sprinkled with our blood,” said Veronika, 23, a combat medic who resettled in Slovyansk. (WP, 09.16.24)
• Current U.S. policy is “more of a reaction and an outgrowth to events,” said Fiona Hill, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who has advised multiple administrations on Russia policy and was Trump’s top Russia adviser at the National Security Council. “We haven’t had a holistic approach,” Hill said. (WP, 09.20.24)
• David Petraeus and Andy Yakulis: “The wars in Ukraine, Gaza and the Red Sea have revealed a pressing reality: Innovative and low-cost technologies are changing how nations wage war. The advent of such tech, moreover, highlights the urgency with which the U.S. must overhaul its defense system, from operational concepts, structures and training to weapons systems, procurement and manufacturing.” (WSJ, 09.20.24)

V. Useful tables

Table 1. China's Share in Russia's Foreign Trade, %

Table 2. Russia's Share in China's Foreign Trade, %

Source: https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/analytics/ob-osnovnykh-trendakh-razvitiya-torgovli-rossii-i-kitaya/

Footnotes

1. It should also be noted that Sinitsyn hosted then-Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of Rosatom Alexey Likhachev as they toured the site last year in a clear signal to the West that the resumption of nuclear tests is one option the Russian leadership is considering in its confrontation with the West over Ukraine. 
2. For one detailed account of cyberattacks and election interference efforts by China, Russia and Iran, with U.S. officials and technology executives sounding the alarm about the countries’ intent to sow chaos in the weeks leading up to Election Day on Nov. 5, see this FP story.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo is by AP Photo/Francisco Seco.