5 Things to Know

1. In the past four weeks (Aug. 19–Sept. 16, 2025), Russia has gained 226 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, according to the Sept. 17, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In comparison, Russia gained 237 square miles during the previous four-week period (July 22–Aug. 19, 2025), while average Russian monthly gains have been 169 square miles so far this year, according to the card. Comparing shorter periods, Russia gained 91 square miles of Ukraine’s territory in the week of Sept. 9–16, 2025, up from a 14 square mile gain the previous week, which constitutes an increase of 550%.
2. Russia has dramatically increased attack drone production in 2025, launching over 34,000 kamikaze drones and decoys at Ukraine—nearly nine times more than in the same period last year, Ukrainian and U.S. officials told The New York Times. This increase follows “a huge surge in one-way attack drone production” in Russia, according to a Sept. 14 article in NYT. “Russia is now able to produce about 30,000 of the attack drones modeled on the Iranian design per year [and] some believe the country could double that in 2026,” NYT reported. In July 2025 alone, Russian forces used nearly 6,300 attack drones against Ukraine—up from just 426 the previous July, according to The Wall Street Journal, which estimates that Russia has significantly escalated strikes on Ukraine since Donald Trump took office.
3. This week’s Russian-Belarusian "Zapad-2025" military exercises—observed by a few U.S. and NATO representatives— reportedly gamed out scenarios involving the use of non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons. The drills included simulated nuclear strikes, evaluation and deployment of Russia’s new road-mobile “Oreshnik” intermediate-range missile system and integration of dual-use Iskander-M missiles in Kaliningrad. The exercises, involving some 41 training grounds, 100,000 service personnel and about 10,000 pieces of weapons, also featured simulated launches from submarines and tactical aviation strikes.¹ In his public remarks at the strategic wargame, Vladimir Putin refrained from explicitly referring to any nuclear weapons components of Zapad-2025, but he did mention the involvement of “strategic aviation,” which consists of Russian long-range bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons, in the game.
4. U.S. President Donald Trump told Fox News the U.S. would help “secure the peace” after Russia’s war in Ukraine concludes even though Vladimir Putin had “really let me down,” reiterating his belief that allies must end purchases of Russian oil to increase pressure: “Very simply, if the price of oil comes down, Putin is going to drop out… He’s going to have no choice.” Trump added he would consider more actions to punish Putin, but insisted further U.S. efforts depend on whether European partners “stop purchasing oil from Russia.” Separately, bipartisan U.S. senators introduced legislation to sanction Russia’s shadow oil fleet and LNG projects, even as the Trump administration itself held off on new Russia sanctions, conditioning future steps on NATO unity in banning Russian oil imports.²
5. The European Commission unveiled the EU’s 19th sanctions package against Russia on Sept. 19, targeting energy, technology and finance. The new measures include a complete ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from January 2027. The 19th package also places sanctions on 118 additional “shadow fleet” oil tankers, asset freezes on major energy traders and tighter controls on crypto platforms and banks tied to Russian transactions. Trade restrictions are also extended to companies in Russia, China and India that help Moscow skirt sanctions, and 45 more firms were blacklisted for supporting Russia’s defense sector.³ It should be noted that the EC previously proposed a ban on EU imports of Russian gas and LNG by the end of 2027.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• The Trump administration’s top energy official U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s said the U.S. should look to boost its strategic uranium reserve to buffer against Russian supplies and increase confidence in the long-term prospects of nuclear power generation. Russia supplies about a quarter of the enriched uranium needed by America’s fleet of 94 nuclear reactors, which generate about a fifth of U.S. electricity. (Bloomberg, 09.15.25)
• At the 69th IAEA General Conference in Vienna (Sept. 15–19), Rosatom CEO Alexey Likhachev met with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi to discuss nuclear safety and ongoing Russia-IAEA cooperation. The IAEA and Rosatom Corporate Academy also signed a two-year partnership to boost women’s and youth participation in the global nuclear sector through training and capacity-building, especially for nuclear newcomer countries. Separately, Rostekhnadzor’s director Alexander Trembitsky met with IAEA officials to plan a 2026 mission assessing Russia’s nuclear regulatory activities and advance the Harmonization and Standardization Initiative, offering support to countries launching nuclear energy programs. (Rosatom, 09.15.25, Rosatom, 09.17.25, Rostekhnadzor, 09.16.25)
• Russia has allegedly sent two or three nuclear reactor modules, including a reactor, turbine and cooling system, from decommissioned submarines to North Korea, according to South Korean military sources cited by Korea JoongAng Daily. (Korrespondent.net, 09.18.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russia and Ukraine exchanged the bodies of more than 1,000 of their soldiers killed in the war, officials from both countries said Sept. 18. Russia returned the bodies of 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers while receiving the bodies of 24 Russian soldiers in exchange. (MT/AFP, 09.18.25)
• A Yale University report found Russia is holding Ukrainian children at least 210 sites, nearly double previous estimates. The program includes re-education at 62% of sites and military training at 19%. Ukrainian authorities estimate nearly 20,000 children have been taken, with only a fraction returned. (New York Times, 09.16.25, Financial Times, 09.16.25)
• In the embattled city of Kostyantynivka—a key Donetsk stronghold—the city’s population shrank from 60,000 to just over 6,000, according to Ukrainian authorities. (RFE/RL, 09.17.25)
• Chrystia Freeland is leaving her cabinet post as transport and internal trade minister to become Canada’s new special representative for the reconstruction of Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 09.16.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past week, Sept. 9–16, 2025, Russia gained 91 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, up from a 14 square mile gain the previous week, which constitutes an increase of 550%. Since Jan. 1, 2025, average Russian monthly gains have been 169 square miles. In the past four weeks (Aug. 19–Sept. 16, 2025), Russia has gained 226 square miles, a slight decrease from 237 square miles during the previous four-week period (July 22–Aug. 19, 2025), according to the Sept. 17, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 09.17.25)
• According to Ukraine's DeepState OSINT group's map, as of Sept. 16, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total of 114,816 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (44,331 square miles, almost equal to the total area of the U.S. state of Ohio), which constituted 19% of Ukrainian territory. (RM, 09.17.25)
• Russian air attacks on Ukraine have surged nearly fivefold this year, with 11,739 drones and 433 cruise or ballistic missiles launched during June and July alone, a Washington Post analysis of Ukrainian data finds. These attacks killed 518 civilians and wounded over 1,500 in those two months—the highest toll in three years—transforming every Ukrainian night into a scene of “acoustic terror.” (Washington Post, 09.13.25)
  • In 2022, a typical Russian salvo involved about 100 weapons and occurred roughly once a month, according to Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan’s analysis of Russia’s “massed strikes” in the Ukraine war for CSIS. “By 2025, the average has tripled to nearly 370 munitions per salvo, with salvos now coming every eight days," note Jensen and Atalan.  The surge in such salvos follows “a huge surge in one-way attack drone production” in Russia, according to Paul Sonne and Kim Barker of The New York Times. (RM, 09.14.25)
  • Russia has dramatically increased attack drone production in 2025, launching over 34,000 kamikaze drones and decoys at Ukraine—nearly nine times more than in the same period last year, according to Ukrainian and U.S. officials. A recent barrage involved more than 800 drones and decoys in a single night. Ukraine claims to shoot down about 88% of Russian drones, down from 93% last year, so even small percentages breaching defenses now result in more widespread destruction as Russian swarms hit civilian targets and strain air defense resources. (New York Times, 09.14.25)
  • Russia has dramatically escalated airstrikes on Ukraine since U.S. President Donald Trump took office, defying his peace appeals and targeting a broader range of civilian sites. In July 2025 alone, Russia launched nearly 6,300 attack drones—up from just 426 the previous July—reflecting the surge in domestic drone production. After Trump-Putin phone calls, and especially after their Alaska summit, Russia intensified bombardments, with a record 728 drones and 13 missiles launched in one attack. Ukrainian civilians have suffered three of the war’s deadliest months this year, as Russia increasingly targets urban and symbolic government infrastructure. (Wall Street Journal, 09.15.25)
• A targeted drone campaign by Ukrainian forces has knocked out as much as 17% of Russia's refining capacity. (RFE/RL, 09.15.25)

Friday, Sept. 12, 2025

• Ukraine’s SBU launched over 200 drones in long-range strikes on Sept. 11–12, hitting Russia’s Primorsk port—the country’s largest Baltic oil export hub—setting a ship and a pumping station on fire and suspending shipments. Additional attacks targeted Transneft pumping stations in Leningrad and Smolensk oblasts, with Russian defenses downing more than 70 drones. Kyiv claims the strikes disrupted facilities handling nearly half of Russia’s seaborne crude exports, following earlier attacks on key refineries. Ukraine says it aims to deprive Russian forces of fuel and the Kremlin of petroleum revenue, though Western allies remain wary of global supply disruptions. (ISW, 09.12.25, Bloomberg, 09.13.25)

Saturday, Sept. 13, 2025

• On Sept. 13, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed back Russian forces near Novokonstantinovka and Kostyantynivka. The Russian armed forces occupied Temyrivka and advanced in Kupyansk and near Novoivanivka. (RM, 09.18.25)
• Russia on Sept. 13 said it had captured a new village in Ukraine's central Dnipropetrovsk region, which Moscow's forces say they reached at the beginning of July. The defense ministry said its troops had seized the village of Novomykolaivka near the border with the Donetsk region. AFP was unable to confirm this claim. DeepState, an online battlefield map run by Ukrainian military analysts, said the village was still under Kyiv's control. (MT/AFP, 09.13.25)
• Ukraine intensified its drone and sabotage campaign on Sept. 13–14, striking Russia’s second-largest oil refinery in Kirishi, Leningrad Oblast, and targeting Bashneft’s complex near Ufa—about 1,400 kilometers from the front line. Russian authorities said the Bashneft fire was extinguished and operations would continue as normal, reporting only minor damage. Additional Ukrainian attacks hit a chemical plant in Perm Krai and sabotaged railway lines crucial to Russian military logistics near Kharkiv and Sumy, causing train derailments and fuel tank damage. Kyiv’s strikes on oil and transport infrastructure continue to challenge Russia’s supply chains far from the battlefield. (Bloomberg, 09.13.25, ISW, 09.14.25, MT/AFP, 09.14.25)
• Russian forces used an underground gas pipeline to try to advance behind Ukrainian positions near Kupyansk—a tactic used for the third time since the war began. Ukrainian intelligence said Russian troops traveled inside the pipe for up to four days using electric scooters and modified stretchers, exiting near Radkivka before pushing toward Kupyansk’s railway. Ukrainian forces have since damaged the pipeline to prevent further infiltrations. Treating Soviet-era gas infrastructure as subterranean crawl spaces — an often physically demanding mission for troops that have been dubbed “pipeline forces” — is the latest innovation in Moscow’s grinding effort to seize territory along a frontline that’s moved little in the last three years. (ISW, 09.13.25, Bloomberg, 09.19.25)

Sunday, Sept. 14, 2025

• On Sept. 14, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Novoivanivka, Ivanivka and Zvirove. (RM, 09.18.25)
• Russia fired dozens of drones at Ukraine overnight, Ukrainian officials said Sept. 14. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or neutralized 52 of the 58 Russian drones that were detected, the air force said, while six drones and an Iskander ballistic missile hit the ground, as well as debris from two of the downed drones. (RFE/RL, 09.14.25)
• Ukrainian military intelligence and Special Operations Forces carried out railway explosions in Russia’s Oryol and Leningrad regions over the weekend, derailing a locomotive hauling 15 fuel tankers and sparking a fire. Russian officials claimed the tankers were empty. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones attacked the Kirishi oil refinery (Kinef) in Leningrad region, one of Russia’s largest refineries with a capacity of over 20 million tons annually. Kinef, owned by Surgutneftegas, is located about 100 kilometers southeast of St. Petersburg and more than 800 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, highlighting Kyiv’s reach into critical Russian infrastructure far from the front lines. (Meduza, 09.15.25, Bloomberg, 09.14.25)

Monday, Sept. 15, 2025

• On Sept. 15, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Ukrainian armed forces cleared Pankivka. The Russian armed forces  occupied Hryhorivka and advanced near Yampil, Horikhove, Novoivanivka and Berezove. (RM, 09.18.25)
• A Ukrainian drone attack killed two women in a border village in southwestern Russia’s Belgorod region, authorities said Sept. 15. Ukraine’s military intelligence service on Sept. 16 claimed responsibility for a series of blasts near the Far East city of Vladivostok, though local authorities described the incident as a gas explosion. (MT/AFP, 09.16.25, MT/AFP, 09.15.25)

Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025

• On Sept. 16, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Kupyansk, near Holubivka and Novoivanivka. (RM, 09.18.25)
• Ukraine carried out a drone attack on Russia’s Saratov crude-oil refinery, operated by Rosneft PJSC, causing a fire and forcing shutdowns. Ukraine’s continued strikes have also incapacitated nearly 40% of the Kirishi refinery’s capacity in Leningrad Oblast. These attacks, targeting major Russian refineries, may compel Russia—which accounts for 9% of global oil output—to cut production, potentially exacerbating Russia's ongoing gasoline shortages and impacting its ability to finance the war. (Bloomberg, 09.16.25, ISW, 09.16.25)
• Russian strikes in Ukraine early Sept. 16 killed two people and wounded at least 18, including a four-year-old girl, according to Ukrainian officials. In Zaporizhzhia, a missile attack killed one and injured up to 18, including two children. Meanwhile, in the Mykolaiv region, Russian forces attacked a farm, killing a tractor driver. (MT/AFP, 09.16.25, Meduza, 09.16.25)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on Europe to push forward with an air defense umbrella after Russia again bombarded the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, injuring at least 13 people, including two children. Zelenskyy said in a social media post on Sept. 16 that Russian rockets "struck deliberately to terrorize our people," damaging "many residential buildings" in the process. (RFE/RL, 09.16.25)
• Russia's FSB security service said on Sept. 16 that it arrested a woman accused of detonating a bomb along the Trans-Siberian Railway. The woman, said to be in her fifties, was allegedly working on behalf of Ukrainian intelligence, according to the law enforcement agency. (MT/AFP, 09.16.25)

Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025

• On Sept. 17, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Kindrashivka, Stepova Novosilka and Novoivanivka. (RM, 09.18.25)
• RFE/RL has identified Col. Sergei Budnikov as commander of Russia’s Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies, based in Patriot Park near Moscow. Rubikon units have shifted from striking ground targets to intercepting Ukrainian drones, logging a 20-fold increase in destroyed Baba Yaga drones since February 2025 and supporting Russia’s summer offensive in Donetsk. (ISW, 09.17.25)

Thursday, Sept. 18, 2025

• On Sept. 18, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Ukrainian Defense Forces pushed back the Russian forces near Volodymyrivka. The Russian forces advanced near Shakhove, Kindrashivka, Shandryholove, Zelena Dolyna and Novoivanivka. (RM, 09.18.25).
• Zelenskyy announced that Ukrainian forces are conducting a counteroffensive near Dobropillia and Pokrovsk in Donetsk region, inflicting significant losses on Russian troops. Since the operation began, Ukraine has liberated 160 square kilometers, cleared over 170 square kilometers and freed seven settlements—another nine cleared of Russian presence. More than 2,500 Russian casualties have been recorded in the Pokrovsk area alone. (Korrespondent.net, 09.18.25)
  • The logistics hub of Pokrovsk remains the focal point for Russian offensive operations. Pokrovsk is an important defensive lynchpin, constraining Russian advances in the wider Donetsk oblast and towards the Ukrainian cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, both of which are also Russian objectives. (UK MOD X Account, 09.17.25)
• Russian forces have intensified strikes on Ukraine’s railway infrastructure, launching a series of drone and missile attacks that have delayed long-distance trains by up to three hours, wounded at least five people in Poltava region, and damaged multiple substations. Over 26 trains were delayed after attacks on Sept. 16 and 17. Ukraine’s rail system—with 20,000 kilometers of tracks—is key for moving troops, weapons, and passengers. Authorities deployed more than 20 reserve diesel locomotives to maintain operations, while officials warn the campaign aims to disrupt logistics, sap resilience, and pressure Ukraine’s wartime economy. (Financial Times, 09.18.25)
• A Russian airstrike using a FAB-250 bomb with a UMPK guidance kit killed five civilians (aged 62–74) and damaged four apartment buildings in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region. Prosecutors are investigating the attack as a war crime under article 438 of Ukraine’s criminal code. (Korrespondent.net, 09.18.25)
• Three people in St. Petersburg have been arrested on suspicion of plotting a terrorist attack on orders from Ukrainian intelligence, Russia’s FSB said. (Meduza, 09.18.25)
• Ukraine intensified strikes on Russian energy infrastructure on Sept. 18, targeting two refineries deep inside Russian territory. Long-range Ukrainian SBU drones hit Gazprom’s Neftekhim Salavat petrochemical facility in Bashkortostan—over 1,300 kilometers from Ukrainian-controlled areas—striking the vital ELOU-AVT-4 oil processing unit, causing a major fire and significant damage, according to local officials. The SBU stated these attacks further degrade Russia's war-fighting capacity, while regional authorities described the incident as a “terrorist attack.” Ukrainian Special Operations Forces also claimed responsibility for a strike on Lukoil’s major Volgograd refinery in the Volga region, reportedly halting its operations; however, this claim could not be independently verified and Lukoil has not commented. (Bloomberg, 09.18.25, MT/AFP, 09.18.25, RBC.ua, 09.18.25)

Friday, Sept. 19, 2025

• DeepState, a Ukrainian group of military analysts, has published new maps showing that the Russian occupation forces have made their greatest advances on the Lyman front, in the area of Shandryholove and Zelena Dolyna. The Russians have also advanced near Shakhove, Kindrashivka and Novoivanivka. Meanwhile, according to DeepState, the Ukrainian defense forces pushed the Russians back near Volodymyrivka. (Pravda.com.ua, 09.19.25)
• Russian forces are intensifying efforts to capture Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region, amassing troops near the villages of Radkivka and Holubivka, according to Ukraine’s 10th Army Corps. (Ukrainska Pravda, 09.19.25)
• Overnight on Sept. 19, Russia launched 86 drones—including more than 50 Shaheds and others like Gerbera—at targets across Ukraine from multiple directions. Ukrainian Air Force reported that air defenses managed to shoot down or suppress 71 drones, mainly over the north, east, and center of the country. However, 15 drones struck six different locations, with debris falling in two more. Ukrainian military said a new group of Russian drones was launched from the north the next morning, and the attack was ongoing. (RBC.ua, 09.19.25)
• As of Sept. 19, Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.1 million casualties—killed or wounded—since the invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, Ukraine’s General Staff claimed, according to RBC.ua. (RM, 09.19.25)
• Ukraine’s SBU dismantled an FSB spy network in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, arresting four residents accused of passing military supply and troop movement intelligence to Russia. (Korrespondent.net, 09.19.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that more than 700,000 Russian soldiers are currently deployed along the front line in Ukraine as of Sept. 18. Ukrainian intelligence previously estimated Russia’s ground army fighting in Ukraine at about 620,000, with more than 200,000 assault troops on the front line and another 35,000 Russian National Guard securing occupied areas. (RBC.ua, 09.19.25)

Military aid to Ukraine:

Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025

• The Trump administration has approved its first major weapons package for Ukraine funded by NATO members and partners under the Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (PURL). Two $500 million shipments—including Patriot interceptor missiles and HIMARS rockets—have been approved and confirmed by Zelenskyy, marking a significant step in transatlantic security assistance. (ISW, 09.17.25)

Friday, Sept. 19, 2025

• With little prospect of joining NATO, Ukraine and its Western allies are betting on building up Ukraine’s weapons industry: Kyiv now produces nearly 60% of its own military needs, up from 10% at the start of the war, but its 2024 military budget ($64 billion) is less than half of Russia’s. Ukraine’s drones, responsible for roughly 70% of Russian front-line losses, include new quadcopters that can fly over 20 kilometers and carry 13 kg of explosives. The EU and other Western donors have committed over $1.5 billion in funding for Ukrainian artillery, strike drones, and missiles, while Denmark and other partners are launching joint projects for drone and missile production inside and outside Ukraine. (Washington Post, 09.19.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Friday, Sept. 12, 2025

• The U.S urged G-7 countries to impose tariffs of up to 100% on China and India for buying Russian oil, aiming to force Moscow to negotiate peace with Ukraine, according to a U.S. position paper seen by the Financial Times. G-7 finance ministers recently discussed the proposal, though European officials expressed concerns about economic backlash and trade relations. The U.S. has already raised tariffs on Indian imports to 50% and wants stricter sanctions on Russian energy and finance. The EU, which still buys 20% of its gas from Russia, debates whether to impose similar sanctions. (Financial Times, 09.12.25)
  • Indian refiners have no plans to step away from Russian crude as domestic fuel demand picks up after the monsoon season. (Bloomberg, 09.19.25)

Saturday, Sept. 13, 2025

• Trump announced he will only impose major new U.S. sanctions on Russia if all NATO countries first agree to halt Russian oil purchases and place steep tariffs—of 50–100%—on Chinese goods. Trump wrote, “I am ready to do major Sanctions on Russia when all NATO Nations have agreed, and started, to do the same thing, and when all NATO Nations STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA.” Despite earlier promises of tougher measures, Trump has held off on additional Russia sanctions, even after Putin refused a ceasefire at their Alaska meeting last month. The proposal faces opposition, with Turkey, Hungary and Slovakia still buying significant amounts of Russian oil, making consensus within NATO unlikely. (Axios, 09.13.25, Washington Post, 09.13.25, Bloomberg, 09.14.25)

Monday, Sept. 15, 2025

• The European Union prepared to present its 19th package of proposed sanctions on Russia to member states as soon as Sept. 19, following a call between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Trump. The new measures are expected to target crypto assets, banks, energy, and Russian oil imports. Additional proposals include further banking restrictions—such as cutting smaller banks from SWIFT—curbs on Russia’s shadow fleet, targeting third-country firms facilitating sanctions evasion, and blacklisting individuals involved in the abduction of Ukrainian children. Russian tourist visa restrictions are also under consideration. Meanwhile, the U.S. is pressing its G-7 allies to impose tariffs of up to 100% on China and India for their purchases of Russian oil to pressure Moscow, though this faces resistance within the EU. (RFE/RL, 09.15.25, Euractiv, 09.15.25, Bloomberg, 09.18.25)

Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025

• The European Commission has granted itself new powers over export controls to curb Russia’s access to advanced technologies, sidestepping the usual international coordination process hindered by Moscow. The EU will now directly restrict export of dual-use items—including quantum computers, semiconductor tools, and integrated circuits—after Russia blocked new product listings in the Wassenaar Arrangement. (Financial Times, 09.16.25)
• Raiffeisen Bank International AG wants to leave Russia but that decision isn’t necessarily up to the firm, Chief Executive Officer Johann Strobl said. (Bloomberg, 09.15.25)
• Swiss authorities raided the local office of metals trader Open Mineral AG Sept. 11 as part of an investigation into potential sanctions breaches relating to its trading in Russian gold, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 09.16.25)

Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025

• Brussels is preparing ways to use Russia’s frozen assets to back €170bn of “reparation loans” to Ukraine, a move that would transform Kyiv’s finances but risk a major confrontation with Moscow. The plans, long sought by Ukraine but under fierce debate within the EU, aim to enable Russian cash in effect to be transferred to Ukraine without technically seizing the assets outright. (Financial Times, 09.17.25)

Thursday, Sept. 18, 2025

• Trump has again challenged EU leaders to halt Russian oil purchases and impose tariffs on India and China before the U.S. implements tougher sanctions on Russia. Oil imports from Russia have dropped 93% since 2021, but Trump insists Europe must fully decouple from Russian energy. NATO allies have pledged to raise military spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 in response to U.S. pressure.  (Wall Street Journal, 09.18.25, Washington Post, 09.18.25)
  • Trump said Russia would end the war in Ukraine if global oil prices fell, arguing that reduced energy revenues would pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to seek a settlement. Trump called on European countries to step up sanctions on the Russian energy sector to drive down oil prices and force Moscow’s hand. “If the oil price comes down, very simply, Russia will settle,” Trump said. (Financial Times, 09.18.25)

Friday, Sept. 19, 2025

• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled the EU’s 19th sanctions package against Russia, sharply targeting energy, finance, and key technologies. The measures include a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports from January 2027, asset freezes on major energy traders, sanctions on 118 shadow fleet tankers, and stricter controls on crypto platforms and Russian-linked banks. The proposal also extends trade restrictions to companies in Russia, China and India that help Moscow evade sanctions, and blacklists 45 firms supporting Russia’s defense industry. Von der Leyen emphasized that sanctions are driving up Russia’s inflation and interest rates, squeezing its finances, and sending a clear message that Moscow will continue to pay a high economic price for its aggression against Ukraine. The European Commission did not announce any new restrictions on Russian oil, which has already been largely phased out. However, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the earlier end date for LNG would show Moscow it “pays the price” for continuing the war. (MT/AFP, 09.19.25, RFE/RL, 09.19.25, Bloomberg, 09.19.25, Korrespondent.net, 09.19.25, New York Times, 09.19.25)
  • The EU plans to unlock about €550mn in frozen funds for Hungary in hopes of securing Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s support for sweeping new Russian energy sanctions. Proposals include ending Russian LNG imports by 2027 and lowering the oil price cap to $47.60 a barrel, as Brussels grapples with Hungarian and Slovakian veto threats. (Financial Times, 09.19.25)
  • The European Union should consider all possibilities to utilize billions of euros of frozen Russian assets to help fund Ukraine, according to Dutch Finance Minister Eelco Heinen. (Bloomberg, 09.19.25)
• U.S. senators are set to introduce new bipartisan legislation to expand sanctions against Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers used to evade Western restrictions and finance Moscow’s war in Ukraine. The proposed Shadow Fleets Act—co-sponsored by Jim Risch and Jeanne Shaheen—targets tankers with hidden ownership, Russian LNG projects, and the defense sector. While Trump has raised tariffs on Indian oil purchases, he’s stopped short of new direct action on Moscow, amid criticisms of his stalled Ukraine peace efforts. The U.K. and EU have also expanded sanctions on shadow vessels this year. (Financial Times, 09.19.25)
• Sen. Lindsey Graham urgedTrump to sanction China for its support of Russia’s war, following the EU’s move to target Chinese energy firms doing business with Moscow. Graham called the EU’s action “a significant step,” but noted Trump has yet to act. Trump, meanwhile, announced a deal with Xi Jinping over TikTok and delayed a vote on bipartisan sanctions targeting countries financing Russia’s war. (AOL, 09.19.25)
• Trump has abandoned the Biden administration’s approach of frequently imposing new and escalated sanctions on Russia in response to the war in Ukraine. Under Biden, sanctions were applied on a near-weekly basis, targeting Moscow’s banks, energy, and trade networks to steadily increase economic pressure and erode Russia’s war-fighting capacity. Since Trump’s return to office, however, there have been no new U.S. sanctions on Russia; instead, Trump has conditioned future action on all NATO countries halting Russian oil purchases first. Sanctions experts warn that without ongoing updates, existing penalties lose impact as Russia adapts. (Washington Post, 09.19.25)
• Estonia will not reopen its main border crossing with Russia to vehicles until the war in Ukraine is over, the Baltic country’s border authorities said Sept. 19. (MT/AFP, 09.19.25)
• Russia has appealed to the International Court of Justice over a decision by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Council that held Moscow responsible for the 2014 downing of a Malaysia Airlines plane over Donbass, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. (Meduza, 09.19.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations:

Monday, Sept. 15, 2025

• Pope Leo XIV said the Vatican is unlikely to act as a mediator in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, distinguishing between advocacy for peace and active mediation, which he called “not as realistic.” The pope, the first American pontiff, said the Holy See aims to remain “truly neutral.” Leo also noted the United Nations has recently lost its effectiveness in solving global disputes. (New York Times, 09.15.25)

Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025

• Senior Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, rejected any peace settlement that stops short of full Ukrainian capitulation, contradicting recent U.S. suggestions that a land swap could end the war. Lavrov reiterated Russia’s maximalist demands, including government change in Kyiv and NATO neutrality, while Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed Russia remains open to political solutions. (ISW, 09.17.25)

Thursday, Sept. 18, 2025

• Trump told Fox News the U.S. would help “secure the peace” after Russia’s war in Ukraine concludes, but admitted, “ending the conflict has proved more difficult than expected.” Trump said Putin had “really let me down,” reiterating his belief that allies must end purchases of Russian oil to increase pressure: “Very simply, if the price of oil comes down, Putin is going to drop out... He’s going to have no choice.” Trump added he would consider more actions to punish Putin, but insisted further U.S. efforts depend on whether European partners “stop purchasing oil from Russia.” (Reuters, 09.18.25, Bloomberg, 09.18.25)
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to Trump’s recent comment that Putin had “let him down,” saying Russia views Trump’s remarks as “emotional,” given his ongoing intent to pursue a settlement in Ukraine. Peskov reiterated that the Kremlin is “ready to resolve the situation through political and diplomatic means,” but accused Ukraine and European countries of prolonging the conflict. (RBC-Ukraine, 09.19.25)
• U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Trump presented a united front at Chequers, pledging to “decisively increase the pressure” on Russia after recent attacks on Ukraine. Starmer called on allies to end the war in Gaza and criticized Putin’s “true colors,” while Trump expressed frustration with Putin, saying he had “really let me down” in peace talks. The two leaders noted disagreements over U.K. plans to recognize a Palestinian state, but emphasized cooperation on Ukraine, energy, and immigration. Trump also urged Britain to boost North Sea oil output and signed a £150bn tech deal with Starmer. (Financial Times, 09.18.25)
• Lavrov reiterated Russia’s willingness to “compromise” only if a settlement enshrines Russia’s so-called “legitimate security interests” and addresses the “root causes” of the conflict, meaning it seeks to secure Kyiv’s neutrality and political concessions. (ISW, 09.18.25)

Friday, September 19, 2025

• MI6 chief Richard Moore said Sept. 19 there is “no evidence” Putin is interested in a negotiated peace with Ukraine, short of Ukrainian capitulation. Speaking in Istanbul, Moore also stated that Putin has “bitten off more than he can chew” and underestimated Ukrainian resistance. Moore made the remarks while announcing MI6’s new use of the dark web to recruit informants and receive secret information from agents in Russia and elsewhere. (Reuters, 09.19.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Friday, Sept. 12, 2025

• NATO has launched Operation Eastern Sentry to reinforce its eastern flank following a Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace on Sept. 10. Announced by Secretary-General Mark Rutte, the mission marks the first time NATO forces have directly defended member territory from Russian aircraft, and will deploy additional military hardware—including F-16s, Rafales, and Eurofighters—from France, Germany, Denmark, and the UK; no new U.S. assets have been specified. The operation aims to fill air defense gaps and rapidly introduce new counter-drone technologies. The incursion prompted Poland to close major airports, invoke Article 4, and join nearly 50 nations in condemning Russia at the UN. (RFE/RL, 09.13.25, Wall Street Journal, 09.13.25, Financial Times, 09.13.25)

Saturday, Sept. 13, 2025

• Nearly 50 countries, led by Poland and the U.S., strongly condemned Russia’s deliberate drone incursion into Polish airspace with at least 19 drones on the night of Sept. 9–10. At a UN session, officials emphasized that the drones, some with Cyrillic markings and Iranian-made advanced navigation systems, showed no signs of accidental navigation errors. Moscow and Minsk continue to deny responsibility, but evidence indicates Russia used longer-range drones, making technical errors highly unlikely and raising concerns of intentional escalation and further international destabilization. (ISW, 09.13.25)
• A Russian drone entered Romanian airspace on Sept. 13, tracked for nearly an hour before leaving. Romania reported this as the 11th such incursion since the war began, with defense officials condemning the repeated “provocations from Russia.” Some 50 drone strikes have occurred near the Romania-Ukraine border since February 2022, often leaving debris on Romanian soil. (ISW, 09.14.25)
  • A Russian drone in Romanian airspace during an attack on neighboring Ukraine lingered above the NATO nation for 50 minutes before swerving back toward Ukraine, Romania's Defense Ministry said on Sept. 14. Two Romanian F-16 fighter jets intercepted the Geran drone and tracked its movement over Romania the previous evening through intermittent visual and radar contact, the ministry said in a statement. The F-16 pilots received authorization from their commanders to shoot at the drone but "they assessed the collateral risks and decided not to open fire," the statement said. (RFE/RL, 09.14.25)
  • Romania summoned Russia’s ambassador on Sunday after a Russian drone entered its airspace, making it the second NATO country in a week—after Poland—to report such an incursion. (Axios, 09.15.25)
  • Romania condemned Russia’s “reckless” breach of its airspace after tracking a Russian-made Geran drone for nearly an hour on Saturday. (Financial Times, 09.15.25)
  • Poland deployed air force jets for the second time in a week, alerted residents and closed Lublin airport near the Ukrainian border because of drones flying in Romania (Bloomberg, 09.13.25)
  • Russia's embassy in Romania claimed on Sunday that a drone incursion into the Eastern European country the day before was a "provocation" orchestrated from Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 09.15.25)
• Polish President Karol Nawrocki has signed a decree authorizing NATO member states’ armed forces to be stationed in Poland as part of the alliance’s “Eastern Sentry” operation, the country’s National Security Bureau said on Sunday. (Meduza, 09.15.25)
• Russian “hybrid” attacks—including a swarm of at least 19 drones into Poland and GPS jamming of a plane carrying the EU Commission president—have sharply increased, with European officials saying sabotage by Moscow more than tripled from 2023 to 2024. (New York Times, 09.13.25)

Monday, Sept. 15, 2025

• Poland’s foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski called for NATO and EU countries to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine, following last week’s Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace that prompted NATO to scramble jets. (Washington Post, 09.15.25) Calls for a no-fly zone over Ukraine have also been made by experts such as former SACEUR James Stavridis and Nathaniel England of the University of Warsaw. In his comment for Bloomberg, retired Adm. Stavridis acknowledges the risks of imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine by NATO, but still recommends doing so even though enforcement of such a zone could lead to a direct conflict between Russia and NATO, in what could then lead to a nuclear exchange. In his turn, Russia’s strategist-in-chief, no doubt, is aware that the recent incursions of Russian drones and warplanes into the airspace of NATO countries increase the probability of a direct Russia-NATO war, but still condones these actions. These incursions could be yet another attempt to dissuade the European members of NATO from increasing military support for Ukraine at a time when Trump’s America is cutting military aid to Ukraine.
  • Top Kremlin official Dmitry Medvedev warned that establishing a NATO-backed no-fly zone over Ukraine or allowing allied countries to shoot down Russian drones would mean “a NATO war with Russia.” (Newsweek, 09.15.25)
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declared that NATO is “at war with Russia,” following Poland's shooting down of Russian drones that violated alliance airspace last week. (Newsweek, 09.15.25)

Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025

• Poland neutralized a drone flying over government buildings on Monday evening and detained two Belarusian citizens over the incident, said Prime Minister Donald Tusk. (Bloomberg, 09.16.25)
• Contrary to earlier reports, the missile that hit a residential house in the Polish village of Wyryki-Wola on Sept. 11 was fired by a Polish F-16 fighter jet—not a Russian drone—according to sources cited by Rzeczpospolita on Sept. 16. (Istories, 09.16.25)
  • Residents in eastern Poland are increasingly fearful after 19 Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace last week—an incident that triggered NATO fighter jets to shoot down at least three drones and cost an estimated $8 million, according to defense experts. (Wall Street Journal, 09.16.25)
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko denied Belarusian involvement in the recent Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace, claiming Belarus had downed or tried to warn Poland about incoming drones and spent “massive” resources countering them. Experts assess the statements as an attempt to obscure Belarus’s continued cooperation with Russia—including joint drills, support for Russian mobilization, and sanctions evasion schemes. (ISW, 09.16.25)
• The Netherlands will boost its defense budget next year to €27 billion ($32 billion), as the country works toward meeting NATO’s new goal of spending 5% of gross domestic product on security by 2035. (Bloomberg, 09.16.25)
• Former Wirecard AG executive Jan Marsalek is living in Moscow and seems to be working with Russian intelligence services, according to a joint investigation by a consortium of media organizations. (Bloomberg, 09.16.25)

Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025

• U.S. President Donald Trump said he spoke to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a move that offers to ease tensions between the two major economies amid a fight over tariffs and New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil. Trump said he had a “wonderful” call with the Indian leader and wished him a happy birthday, in a social media post on Tuesday. “He is doing a tremendous job,” Trump added. “Narendra: Thank you for your support on ending the War between Russia and Ukraine!” (Bloomberg, 09.16.25)
• India’s participation in Russia’s Zapad-2025 military exercises—sending 65 troops to drills simulating conflict with a fictional EU state—has strained the EU’s efforts to deepen ties with New Delhi. The timing of the joint drills coincided with the EU’s planned launch of its “New Strategic EU-India Agenda.” Brussels expressed concern directly to Indian officials, with an EU spokesperson calling the move “the wrong signal,” especially amid Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine. Indian involvement in the Russian exercises comes alongside steadily deepening energy and defense cooperation with Moscow. (Financial Times, 09.17.25)
• The EU is rapidly spending billions of euros to create a “drone wall” of air defenses on its eastern border, leveraging Ukrainian-developed battlefield technology, after Russia sent 19 drones into Polish airspace last week. Brussels has set up a €6bn “drone alliance” with Kyiv to industrialize and finance joint counter-drone systems, while NATO eastern flank states will share in nearly €100bn in new defense loans. Acoustic-detection and cost-effective mobile air defense systems pioneered by Ukraine are now being adopted across the region, as the bloc seeks unified, integrated solutions to counter escalating drone threats. (Financial Times, 09.17.25)
• Latvia's State Security Service (VDD) said Wednesday that it arrested one of its citizens on suspicion of spying for Russia. (MT/AFP, 09.17.25)

Thursday, Sept. 18, 2025

• President Donald Trump announced Thursday that the U.S. is working to regain control of Bagram air base from the Taliban in Afghanistan, calling it “one of the biggest air bases in the world” and emphasizing its strategic proximity to China. Speaking alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump said, “We’re trying to get it back because they need things from us. We want that base back.” Talks involving special envoy Adam Boehler and Taliban officials have reportedly included prisoner swaps, but details on progress remain unclear. The U.S. relinquished Bagram during the 2021 withdrawal. (Washington Post, 09.18.25)
• UK counterterrorism police arrested three people in Essex on suspicion of assisting Russian intelligence—the first high-profile case under the 2023 National Security Act targeting foreign interference. A 41-year-old man, a 35-year-old woman, and a 46-year-old man were questioned in London and released on bail with conditions. Police say the case reflects a rising trend of British nationals being recruited by hostile states, citing increased espionage and sabotage activity linked to Russia across Europe. The investigation continues amid heightened concern over Russian operations since the Ukraine invasion. (Financial Times, 09.18.25)
• Lithuanian authorities tied Russian military intelligence (GRU) to several July 2024 arson attacks across Europe, including detonations in airports and warehouses. A total of 15 suspects are charged, including those linked to a failed attack on an IKEA store in Vilnius. Russia aims to sow discord and destabilize Europe through these sabotage acts. (ISW, 09.18.25)
• Russian military intelligence (GRU) was behind 2024 explosions at DHL logistics warehouses near Warsaw, Birmingham, and Leipzig, according to an investigation by VSquare, Re:Baltica, LRT, Delfi, Frontstory, and The Insider. Reporters found the operation was organized by ex-Soviet submariner Alexander Miroshnikov, with instructions from GRU agent Yaroslav Mikhailov. Lithuanian police have detained suspects from Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Russia, and Ukraine, charging 15 individuals, with three now internationally wanted. (Istories, 09.18.25)

Friday, Sept. 19, 2025

• Poland’s border service reported that two Russian fighter jets flew at low altitude over the Petrobaltic oil platform in the Baltic Sea, violating its safety zone. Polish armed forces and other agencies were notified, and authorities labeled the incident “provocative behavior.” (Meduza, 09.19.25)
• A fragment of a drone was found after washing up on a beach in western Latvia, the country’s military reported on Friday. Latvian Defense Ministry Andris Spruds said the piece came from the tail section of a Russian Gerbera drone, often described as a decoy drone, since Moscow uses them as false targets to “overload” air defense systems. (Meduza, 09.19.25)
• The U.S. State Department has approved a potential $780 million sale of 2,506 FGM-148F Javelin anti-tank missiles and 253 launchers to Poland, along with spare parts, training, and technical support. (Korrespondent.net, 09.19.25)
• As drone swarms increasingly target Ukraine—and have now breached NATO airspace in Poland—European militaries are rushing to acquire high-powered laser weapons for air defense. The Australian-made “Apollo” laser, able to shoot down 20 drones a minute at less than 10 cents per shot, is being marketed to a NATO country for $83 million per system. Unlike billion-dollar Patriot missile systems, lasers promise cheap and rapid response but face weather limitations. Lasers have already downed drones in Israel’s Iron Beam and in Ukraine. The push for such technology has intensified as U.S. support becomes less certain and Europe seeks affordable, homegrown air defenses. (New York Times, 09.19.25)
• Three Russian MiG-31 interceptors violated the airspace of Estonia in the area of the Gulf of Finland on Friday, the Estonian government informed. The warplanes reportedly remained in the Estonian airspace for around 12 minutes. The jets circled for about 12 minutes and NATO scrambled Italian F-35s to repel them. The Chargé d'Affaires of the Russian Federation was summoned to the Estonian Foreign Ministry over the incident. (Status-6 X Account, 09.19.25, Politico, 09.19.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• President Trump said, “China’s by far the biggest purchaser of oil from Russia... I’m speaking with President Xi on Friday... we’ll see how that all works. If Europe did something with respect to China, I think China would probably maybe force an end to the war.” Trump has pressured Europe to intensify sanctions by ending Russian energy purchases and targeting China, but the EU still buys about 20% of its gas from Russia. (X, 09.19.25)
• Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov revealed that Moscow and Beijing are discussing the creation of an independent financial depository to replace the Euroclear and Clearstream systems for cross-border securities transactions. (TASS, 09.19.25)
• New research shared with RFE/RL shows that leading Chinese universities linked to the country’s defense sector have significantly increased their research partnerships with Russian institutions. The preliminary findings compiled by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) think tank and cross-referenced by RFE/RL show that all 68 Chinese universities officially described as parts of the country’s defense system or supervised by a defense agency have “deepened or dramatically deepened” their research ties with Russia since 2019. (RFE/RL, 09.19.25)
• China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from countries including Russia, which has become more dependent on purchases by its Asian neighbor since western nations imposed sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine.. (Bloomberg, 09.18.25)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• This week’s Russian-Belarusian "Zapad-2025" military exercises—observed by U.S. and NATO representatives—placed emphasis on scenarios involving the use of non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons. The drills included simulated nuclear strikes, the evaluation and deployment of Russia’s new road-mobile “Oreshnik” intermediate-range missile system, and integration of dual-use Iskander-M missiles in Kaliningrad. The exercises, involving 41 training grounds, 100,000 service personnel, and about 10,000 pieces of weapons and military equipment, also featured simulated launches from submarines and tactical aviation strikes. Russian and Belarusian officials stressed that these nuclear- and missile-focused episodes were “defensive” drills, intended to demonstrate nuclear readiness and deter NATO. In his public remarks at the strategic wargame, Putin refrained from explicitly referring to any nuclear weapons components of Zapad-2025, but he did mention “strategic aviation” which is Russian long-range bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons. (Meduza, 09.17.25, Kommersant, 09.16.25, MT/AFP, 09.16.25,⁴ ISW, 09.15.25, IStories, 09.17.25, Istories 09.15.25, MT/AFP, 09.15.25, Reuters/NBC News, 09.15.25, Kremlin.ru, 09.16.25)

Counterterrorism:

• The Trump administration has ramped up intelligence sharing with Mali’s military junta—long isolated for ties to Russia’s Wagner Group—in a bid to counter surging Islamist extremist violence, U.S. officials told The Washington Post. Two F-16s and a series of official visits marked this reengagement, despite Mali’s record of rights abuses. An estimated 10,000 deaths were linked to militant groups in the Sahel in 2024 alone. While U.S. officials say aid is contingent on cooperation, critics warn the approach risks complicity in abuses and could undermine peace talks or see U.S. intelligence diverted to Moscow. (Washington Post, 09.15.25)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI:

• Poland is boosting its cybersecurity budget to a record €1bn this year in response to 20–50 daily Russian cyber sabotage attempts, according to Deputy Digital Affairs Minister Dariusz Standerski. Recent attacks targeted hospitals—forcing operations to be suspended and medical data stolen—and a city water supply in one of Poland’s top 10 cities, though the latter was thwarted. Warsaw also recorded about 30 GPS-jamming incidents from Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave in the past year. The spending hike includes €80mn specifically for water management defenses. (Financial Times, 09.16.25)
• AI-powered drone swarms are set to transform warfare, with algorithms enabling unmanned weapons to coordinate and overwhelm enemy defenses. U.S.-German startup Auterion will ship 33,000 AI “strike kits” to Ukraine this year, allowing drones to operate in coordinated swarms using its Nemyx system. Ukrainian company Swarmer says its swarm technology has already been used in 82,000 combat operations. Swarming tactics allow a single operator to direct multiple drones, dramatically increasing battlefield effectiveness. However, experts warn that autonomous algorithms may risk ceding too much decision-making to AI without sufficient human oversight. (Financial Times, 09.14.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russian oil product exports dropped to a wartime low after escalating Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries reduced output and producers prioritized the home market. Very early data for September show a marked drop-off in shipments. Flows from the nation’s ports were down by about 300,000 barrels a day compared with the three preceding Septembers, according to Vortexa Ltd. figures compiled by Bloomberg. Total refined-product flows dropped to 1.94 million barrels a day in the first 15 days of the month. At that pace, September is poised for the lowest average since at least the start of the war on Ukraine in early 2022. (Bloomberg, 09.19.25)
• Russia’s oil pipeline monopoly Trasneft warned producers that it may be forced to reduce output amid continued Ukrainian drone attacks on seaport and refinery infrastructure, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing industry sources familiar with the matter. Ukraine has ramped up its attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure in recent months, targeting a key source of revenue for the Kremlin’s war effort. According to sources cited by Reuters, Ukrainian drones have hit at least 10 refineries since the beginning of August, which led to a reduction in refining capacity by nearly 20% at one point. (MT/AFP, 09.17.25)
• Slovakia and Hungary signaled they would resist pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to cut Russian oil and gas imports until the European Union member states find sufficient alternative supplies. (Bloomberg, 09.17.25)
• Japan’s finance minister pushed back against a U.S. call to ramp up pressure on President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine by imposing higher tariffs on China and India for importing Russian oil. (Bloomberg, 09.16.25)
• Goldman Sachs forecasts oil prices will fall further in 2026, with Brent crude in the low $50s a barrel and WTI around $50, due to strong global supply growth. However, a rebound could occur sooner if sustained weak prices prompt U.S. shale producers—whose rig count is already down 35% from late 2022—to cut output. An emerging surplus could also push OPEC to reverse course and cut production to stabilize the market. (Wall Street Journal, 09.15.25)
• An Italian court ruled Tuesday that a Ukrainian man arrested last month over his suspected involvement in the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines must be extradited to Germany. The man, identified as Serhii Kuznietsov, was a member of Ukraine’s armed forces at the time of the explosion but denies any role in the operation. (MT/AFP, 09.16.25)

Climate change:

• A new study finds that northern Siberia has seen an increase in spontaneous underground gas explosions, creating between 8 and 17 massive craters—some over 150 feet deep—since 2014. The research links these blasts to climate-driven thawing of permafrost, in combination with gas-rich geology and rock faults that allow methane to accumulate beneath the surface. (New York Times, 09.16.25)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said the company has “no plans to re-enter Russia,” despite ongoing settlement talks with Moscow officials over $4.6 billion in expropriated assets following Russia’s 2022 seizure of Exxon’s 30% stake in the Sakhalin-1 oil project. Woods clarified discussions are about arbitration and not future investment, citing high geopolitical risk. Russian officials have floated the idea of Exxon returning, but Woods also threatened to exit the EU over new supply-chain due diligence regulations, calling them “untenable” for global operations. (Financial Times, 09.18.25)
  • Exxon Mobil Corp.’s talks with Russia are focused on reclaiming losses incurred by the country’s 2022 expropriation of its Sakhalin-1 oil venture, Woods said. (Bloomberg, 09.18.25)
• U.S. imports from Russia fell from $14.14 billion in 2021 to $2.50 billion in the first half of 2025, though they still totaled $24.51 billion since January 2022, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Notably, U.S. fertilizer imports from Russia rose to $1.27 billion in 2024, up from $1.14 billion in 2021, while enriched uranium/plutonium imports held steady at around $624 million. Russian palladium exports to the U.S. dropped sharply to $878 million in 2024, down from $1.59 billion in 2021. (Reuters, 09.15.25)
• U.S. investments in Russia have totaled about $100 billion over the past 30 years, with American firms building around 50 factories and maintaining the presence of 200–250 companies—even under current sanctions, Robert Agee told RBC. Annual U.S.-Russia trade fell from $31 billion in 2011 to just over $3 billion by 2014. Agee noted future cooperation could focus on the Arctic and rare earth metals. He stressed that restarting business ties would require conflict resolution, partial sanctions relief, and the ability for firms to transfer dividends out of Russia—a key step for restoring trust and investment. (RussiaPost/RBC, 09.13.25)
• The Kremlin is attempting to pressure the Trump administration into normalizing bilateral U.S.-Russian relations before ending the war in Ukraine. Lavrov claimed Trump wants to remove Ukraine from the agenda to facilitate economic ties, while other officials promoted U.S.-Russian business cooperation—seeking to keep the war going while reducing sanctions pressure. (ISW, 09.18.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Flowers, candles and portraits of American conservative activist Charlie Kirk and Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska appeared outside the U.S. Embassy in Moscow on Wednesday, state media reported. (MT/AFP, 09.17.25)
• Russia, China, and Iran have seized on the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk to spread thousands of false or conspiratorial claims, aiming to stoke U.S. political division and tarnish American democracy. (New York Times, 09.18.25)
• A U.S. lawmaker has said Congress is seeking to organize a meeting with members of Russia’s parliament to discuss UFOs. “We’re looking forward to doing a bipartisan meeting with the Russian parliament here pretty soon,” Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a Florida Republican, told news anchor Chris Cuomo during an interview on NewsNation last week. Luna said she had “recently” spoken with Russian government officials and asked whether they had information to share on the issue. (MT/AFP, 09.17.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• After rebounding with over 4% annual GDP growth in 2023 and 2024, Russia’s economy slowed sharply in late 2024, with growth dropping to 1.1% in Q2 2025. Inflation, which peaked at 18% in April 2022, was brought below 9% by mid-2025, but is rising again as the rouble weakens and petrol prices climb from drone attacks on refineries. Despite falling energy revenues and a widening deficit, Russia is unlikely to cut spending and is considering a VAT increase to 22%. Putin maintains the economy is experiencing a “soft landing.” (Financial Times, 09.13.25)
• The Kremlin is facing a massive budget deficit and may increase consumer taxes to compensate, rather than reduce war spending, effectively shifting the economic burden onto Russian citizens to support the war in Ukraine. Russian government sources told The Bell that officials are considering raising the VAT from 20% to 22%, which could add one trillion rubles ($50 billion), surpassing the planned annual deficit. The Russian Ministry of Finance reported on Sept. 9 that the Russian federal budget deficit for January to August 2025 amounted to 4.2 trillion rubles (roughly $50 billion), well exceeding its planned 3.8 trillion-ruble (roughly $45 billion) deficit for all of 2025. (ISW, 09.14.25)
• Russia’s dairy industry has emerged as a surprisingly robust bright spot in Vladimir Putin’s war economy, propped up by state subsidies and the pullback of western rivals since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” Courtney Weaver reports. “Moscow has prioritized developing the domestic food industry to ensure the country is self-sufficient in as many categories as possible.” “Last year, it ploughed a record 682.2 billion rubles ($8.7bn) into the agro-industrial industry and has earmarked an additional 562.6 billion rubles for this year,” Weaver writes. Since the 2014 embargo, self-sufficiency in dairy has risen from 77% to 86%. EkoNiva president Stefan Dürr noted, “when… half the competitors are out of the market, then of course, it’s more easy to step in.” Now Russian dairy groups are expanding exports, especially to China. “The Russian agro-industrial complex… is reaching a new level,” said Alexander Dvoynikh. (Financial Times, 09.18.25)
• Russia’s government will gradually lower the oil price threshold used to calculate revenue under its “budget rule” as it seeks to make public finances less vulnerable to energy market volatility and Western sanctions, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced Thursday. Under the current budget rule, oil and gas revenues earned above $60 per barrel of Urals crude are directed into Russia’s National Wealth Fund (NWF). Shortfalls are covered by drawing from the savings fund. To plug this year’s ballooning budget deficit, driven by enormous defense spending, the government plans to draw around 447 billion rubles ($5.39 billion) from the NWF’s estimated 4 trillion rubles ($48.25 billion). (MT/AFP, 09.18.25)
• The research firm Nielsen reported a decline in the range of goods available in Russian grocery stores this July, Kommersant said on Sept. 16. Compared with a year earlier, the assortment of food products fell by 2.3%, while non-food items dropped by 1.8%. (Meduza, 09.16.25)
• Vladimir Putin has signaled his willingness to abolish Russia’s labor patent system—the country’s work permit program for migrants, which requires citizens of visa-free countries to get special authorization for employment. The president told parliamentary faction leaders on Thursday, “Getting rid of the labor patent system for migrants is something to consider.” (Meduza, 09.18.25)
• About one in five Russians—22%—are unable to make their loan payments, Vedomosti reported, citing a survey by the International Confederation of Consumer Societies. (Meduza, 09.17.25)
• When President Vladimir Putin praised veterans of the war in Ukraine this year as “the elite who defend the Motherland,” he cast them as a generation of men ready to lead Russia into the future. “It’s not frightening to hand the country over to people like this,” he said. (MT/AFP, 09.19.25)
• Dmitry Kozak, once a key Putin advisor and known for opposing the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, has left the Kremlin after repeated disagreements with Putin on war policy. Moscow experts confirm Kozak’s exit, marking the consolidation of hardliners and the sidelining of advocates for negotiation. (ISW, 09.17.25)
• Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Russian opposition leader Aleksei Navalny, said laboratory tests done outside of Russia show her husband was poisoned in the Arctic prison where he died in mysterious circumstances in February 2024. In a video statement posted on social media on Sept. 17, Navalnaya said that supporters of her late husband obtained and smuggled biological samples from him out of Russia. Laboratories in two countries analyzed the samples independently and "reached the same conclusion: Aleksei was killed; more specifically, he was poisoned," she said. (RFE/RL, 09.17.25)
• A court in Moscow on Wednesday ordered the arrest in absentia of London restaurateur Yevgeny Chichvarkin on charges of spreading “fake news” about the war in Ukraine and evading “foreign agent” obligations. (MT/AFP, 09.17.25)
• Denis Shtengelov built his company from the streets of his Siberian hometown more than 30 years ago into a global confectionery empire with billions of dollars in revenues. Now the tycoon, worth at least $2.6 billion according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, is at risk of losing a big part of his fortune. Russian prosecutors are targeting his KDV Group, one of the country’s largest snack producers, for expropriation. (Bloomberg, 09.15.25)
• For the first time, Russia has stripped an individual of citizenship by birth, reportedly over political statements. The Interior Ministry in Tambov revoked the citizenship of Telegram channel author Samvel Karapetyan, citing “actions creating a threat to national security.” Karapetyan, born to a Russian army officer in the USSR, had only Russian citizenship. (Istories, 09.19.25)
• Russia’s federal censorship agency, Roskomnadzor, has proposed requiring mobile operators in the country to report which SIM cards are being used in roaming mode, in order to enforce new restrictions on WhatsApp and Telegram accounts registered to those numbers. (Meduza, 09.19.25)
• Russia’s Sept. 12–14 regional elections led to victories for all 20 incumbent governors, 19 from United Russia and one Kremlin-approved independent. All incumbents received at least 60% of the vote, with seven winning over 80%. The CEC cited 149,717 election observers, but independent monitoring has been barred since 2016. (ISW, 09.15.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• President Putin has extended Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov’s service term for five years, despite his recent 70th birthday. This keeps aging loyalists in top roles, contradicting earlier pledges to promote younger officials and highlighting the Kremlin’s preference for stability and loyalty over generational change. (ISW, 09.18.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russia’s high qualification board of judges has endorsed Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov’s candidacy for the post of chief justice of Russia’s Supreme Court, the Interfax news agency reported Monday. (MT/AFP, 09.15.25)
• President Vladimir Putin has proposed Alexander Gutsan—a university classmate of Dmitry Medvedev—for the post of Russia’s prosecutor general, with current prosecutor general Igor Krasnov nominated to head the Supreme Court. Federation Council committees will consider these appointments Sept. 23–24. Krasnov was the sole candidate after the July death of previous Supreme Court chief Irina Podnosova. (Istories, 09.18.25)
• A Russian government commission has approved legislation to increase prison terms for ex-convicts recruited by the Defense Ministry who desert the front—from a maximum of 5 years to 12 years. For such offenders, unauthorized absence could carry 7–12 years in prison; for others, 2–6 years. Over 20,000 court cases for refusing service have been filed since the war began, mostly for desertion. Journalists report commanders have labeled missing or killed soldiers as deserters to deny families compensation, and some soldiers reportedly pay bribes of several million rubles to escape the front. (Istories, 09.15.25)
• Russia’s former deputy defense minister Timur Ivanov has been formally charged with three counts of bribery totaling over 1.3 billion rubles ($15.5 million), along with money laundering and weapons violations. Investigators say Ivanov received illicit payments from contractor Olimpsitistroy, including a $670,000 sauna, in exchange for Defense Ministry contracts. Ivanov, arrested in April 2024, was previously sentenced to 13 years in prison for embezzlement and money laundering related to ferry purchases and a $46 million bank misappropriation. Ivanov denies wrongdoing. (Meduza, 09.13.25)
• Krasnoyarsk Mayor Vladislav Loginov submitted his resignation three months after he was arrested and charged with bribery, Russian media outlets reported on Monday. (MT/AFP, 09.15.25)
• Russia’s FSB security service said Wednesday that it arrested an African man in the southern city of Astrakhan on accusations of spying for Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 09.17.25)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said Thursday that it arrested three people accused of trying to kill a defense industry executive with a car bomb in the city of St. Petersburg. (MT/AFP, 09.18.25)
• Russian customs and law enforcement authorities said Friday they had seized more than 1.5 metric tons of cocaine concealed in a shipment of bananas from Ecuador, calling it the country’s largest-ever drug bust. (MT/AFP, 09.19.25)

• A 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Russia’s Far East Kamchatka peninsula on Saturday, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) said. However, there was no risk that the quake had triggered a tsunami, according to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre (PTWC). The USGS said the quake hit 111 kilometres (69 miles) east of the Russian city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky (MT/AFP, 09.13.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• EU exports to Russia have plunged 61% and imports from Russia have dropped 89% since Q1 2022, but Europe still trades billions with Moscow, according to Eurostat data reported by Reuters. The EU’s share of oil imports from Russia fell from 29% in early 2021 to just 2% by Q2 2025, and Russian gas now covers only 12% of EU supplies, down from 48% in Q1 2021. Despite these drops, Russia’s fertilizer market share in the EU rose to 34%. (Reuters, 09.15.25)
• The Kremlin has increased spending by 1.5 times on overseas programs aimed at cultivating loyal young leaders, journalists, and bloggers, according to Istories. In 2025, Russian agency Rossotrudnichestvo signed contracts worth 412 million rubles (a record for the past 14 years), mainly for its “New Generation” program, which finances short-term trips to Russia for foreigners aged 14–40. That program alone will bring 1,600 international participants to Russia this year—up from 921 in 2024. Spending on Russian language promotion abroad also tripled as Moscow seeks to expand influence and propagate pro-Kremlin narratives globally. (Istories, 09.16.25)
• Romania has charged far-right presidential candidate Călin Georgescu, whose 2024 election win was annulled over suspected Russian interference, with attempting to stage a coup along with 21 alleged accomplices. Prosecutors allege Georgescu conspired with a paramilitary group led by Horaţiu Potra—currently wanted and seeking asylum in Russia—to violently disrupt public order and overthrow the government. Investigators linked four companies involved in disinformation campaigns to Russian investors and accused Georgescu of benefiting from a Russian influence network, though these ties are not part of the formal charges. Georgescu denies all allegations. (Financial Times, 09.16.25)
• Russian diplomats helped several dozen Russian and Palestinian nationals flee from Gaza City as Israel launched a major ground offensive this week, the Foreign Ministry said Thursday. Around 50 people were escorted out of the enclave on Wednesday with assistance from Russia’s mission to the Palestinian Authority and its embassy in Jordan. (MT/AFP, 09.18.25)
• The Russian State Duma has voted to withdraw from the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture, Interfax reported. (Meduza, 09.17.25)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine’s real GDP grew 8% year-on-year in August 2025, fueled largely by the agricultural sector, according to the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting. The grain harvest was a key driver: wheat output was 3.5 times higher and barley twice as high as August 2024. Manufacturing also grew by 6%, thanks to demand and the defense sector, while electricity production was up 10%. However, the mining sector contracted 7% and transport dropped nearly 10% due to losses in coal and reduced transit flows. (Ukrainska Pravda, 09.19.25)
• Ukraine’s preliminary estimate for external financing needed over the four-year period of its new IMF program is $150–170 billion, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko told parliament. For 2026 alone, the uncovered financing shortfall is $18.1 billion. The government’s draft 2026 budget projects total external financing needs—including deficit coverage and debt repayments—at 2.79 trillion hryvnias ($45.5 billion). Negotiations on the IMF program began this month, as Kyiv seeks long-term financial support to sustain its war economy. (Ukrainska Pravda, 09.19.25)
• Since Russia invaded, Ukraine has each year named a price. After setting the budget, the government publishes the sum by which its revenues are expected to fall short of spending. Then, friendly governments, aided by the IMF, cajole one another into filling the gap. This year they will stump up $38bn, an amount equivalent to a fifth of Ukraine’s GDP. (The Economist, 09.17.25.)
• The U.S. government has pledged $75 million to kick-start a landmark investment fund for Ukraine’s vast mineral reserves, matching a Ukrainian commitment to bring initial capital to $150 million. The new fund, led by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, will focus on critical minerals like lithium, graphite, and titanium—commodities vital for U.S. national security and worth trillions long-term. Under the deal, half of Ukraine’s mineral revenues will replenish the fund, with profits reinvested in Ukraine and a share going to the U.S. The move marks a shift in U.S. policy from direct aid to strategic investments. (New York Times, 09.17.25)
• Recent military reform proposals by President Zelensky have triggered confusion and protests, as critics warn his advisers are out of touch with Ukrainian society, Paul Hockenos reports. One draft law imposing five- to ten-year sentences for insubordination and 12 for desertion was compared by protesters to Russian authoritarianism. Another measure letting men under 22 travel abroad raised fears of mass emigration. While Zelensky retains two-thirds support, confidence is fragile as civil society demands more open, consultative governance amid ongoing distrust in institutions and no elections under martial law. (Foreign Policy, 09.16.25)
• A U.S. federal jury convicted former Army soldier Craig Austin Lang, 35, of murdering a Florida couple and violating the Neutrality Act after he fought for Ukraine and plotted a Venezuela coup. Lang, who joined far-right volunteer forces against Russia, was found guilty of the 2018 ambush murders of Serafin and Deana Lorenzo, intended to finance a mission to topple President Maduro. This case, which included a four-year extradition battle, spotlights the dangers posed by radicalized foreign fighters returning from conflict zones. Lang’s co-conspirator, Alex Zwiefelhofer, was previously convicted and sentenced to life in prison. (Financial Times, 09.16.25)
• Ukraine’s Supreme Court has upheld previous rulings stripping oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky of Ukrainian citizenship, citing his voluntary acquisition of Israeli citizenship in 1995. The ruling is final and cannot be appealed; Kolomoisky had challenged President Zelensky’s earlier decree revoking his citizenship. (Korrespondent.net, 09.18.25)
• Authorities in Dnipro have arrested an officer and two accomplices accused of running a scheme to help Ukrainian servicemen illegally flee military service and escape to Europe. The group allegedly charged $14,000 for a full “escape package,” aiding desertion directly from military bases, arranging payment, and even instructing soldiers to seek refugee status abroad. (Korrespondent.net, 09.19.25)
• A female property appraiser accused of helping officials in western Ukraine sell communal land for a fraction of its value—a deal prosecutors say cost the public nearly $2 million—has been extradited from Germany and handed over to Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU). (OCCRP, 09.16.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Belarusian opposition figure and political prisoner Nikolai Statkevich has been sent back to the penal colony where he was previously held, after refusing to leave the country following his release last week, the independent outlet Nasha Niva reported. (Meduza, 09.15.25)
• Moldovan President Maia Sandu accused Russia of intensifying efforts to sway Moldova’s upcoming parliamentary election, claiming Moscow has spent the equivalent of 1% of Moldova’s GDP on interference last year. Sandu cited the use of Russian Orthodox priests to spread propaganda, fake bomb threats at polling stations, and the “Matryoshka” bot network targeting the diaspora. She warned these Kremlin tactics risk destabilizing Moldova’s democracy and called for urgent EU support, highlighting that Western inaction could see such interference exported to other European elections. (Fnancial Times, 09.14.25)
• The CSTO command and staff exercise Rubezh-2025 began Sept. 17 in Kyrgyzstan with forces from Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—totaling 1,200 personnel and 500 units—including aircraft and UAVs. Russia concluded Zapad-2025 with Belarus on Sept. 16, with shared tactical lessons from its Ukraine experience; similar knowledge-sharing is expected in Rubezh-2025. (ISW, 09.17.25)
• At a Business Council meeting on Sept. 19, Lavrov highlighted Russia’s expanding trade and investment presence in Central Asia, noting annual trade exceeds $45 billion with 24,000 Russian-backed companies active in the region. Lavrov stressed priorities such as settling in national currencies, infrastructure investment via the Eurasian Development Bank, and competitive modernization of Soviet-era facilities. He pointed to successes in mineral extraction, logistics, and Rosatom’s regional nuclear cluster projects. Lavrov said the forthcoming Russia–Central Asia summit in Dushanbe will address cooperation across trade, science, and technology. (Mid.ru, 09.19.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Dr. Fiona Hill (Former U.S. National Security council member and a member of Harvard’s Board of Overseers) in reference to Donald Trump’s recent criticism of Vladimir Putin over the Russian-Ukrainian war: “This is a significant moment. Trump’s previous reluctance to directly criticize Putin has been a source of concern for many. This could signal a more realistic assessment of the threat posed by Russia.” (Archyde, 09.19.25)

Footnotes

1. Sources: Meduza, 09.17.25, Kommersant, 09.16.25 , MT/AFP, 09.16.25, ISW, 09.15.25, Istories, 09.17.25, Istories, 09.15.25, MT/AFP, 09.15.25, Reuters/NBC News, 09.15.25.
2. Sources: Reuters, 09.18.25, Bloomberg, 09.18.25, Reuters, 06.17.25,.Kremlin.ru, 09.16.25.
3. Sources: Financial Times, 09.12.25, Bloomberg, 09.19.25, Axios, 09.13.25, Washington Post, 09.13.25, Bloomberg, 09.14.25, RFE/RL, 09.15.25, Euractiv, 09.15.25, Bloomberg, 09.18.25, Financial Times, 09.16.25, Bloomberg, 09.16.25, Financial Times, 09.17.25, Wall Street Journal, 09.18.25, Washington Post, 09.18.25, Financial Times, 09.18.25, MT/AFP, 09.19.25, RFE/RL, 09.19.25, Bloomberg, 09.19.25, Korrespondent.net, 09.19.25, New York Times, 09.19.25, Financial Times, 09.19.25, Bloomberg, 09.19.25, Financial Times, 09.19.25 Washington Post, 09.19.25, MT/AFP, 09.19.25, Meduza, 09.19.25, Reuters, 09.19.25.
4. Belarus and Russia criticized Poland for closing its border ahead of Zapad-2025 drills, claiming Poland overreacted despite Moscow moving exercises away from the border. Belarus says it’s ready to boost crossings on its Latvian and Lithuanian borders and has invited OSCE observers. (ISW, 09.12.25)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Mikhail Metzel/Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP.