5 Things to Know

1. “Ask Biden,” Putin said when asked if he is ready to negotiate with the U.S. leader at the G20. “I do not see the need, to be honest, there is still no platform for any kind of negotiations” with the U.S. president, Putin said on the sidelines of a CICA summit in Kazakhstan. At the same time, “we have always said that we are open” for negotiations with Ukraine on ending the war, Putin said. A day prior to Putin’s Oct. 14 remarks, Zelensky—who plans to attend the Nov. 15-16 G-20 summit in Indonesia, said “there cannot be diplomacy” with Putin.  
2. Biden’s new National Security Strategy points to the alignment of China and Russia and expresses support for Ukraine’s EU aspirations, but keeps mum on prospects of its NATO membership. The document asserts that it is in the U.S. vital interest to deter China and Russia’s alignment, and addresses Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling. “The United States will not allow Russia, or any power, to achieve its objectives through using, or threatening to use, nuclear weapons,” according to the document released this week, which saw Putin make yet another veiled threat to use nuclear weapons if NATO intervenes directly in his war against Ukraine. “A direct collision with the Russian army would be a very dangerous step that could lead to a global catastrophe,” Putin warned on Oct. 14.
3. Ukraine pleads with the West to supply more air defenses. One country stood out as the Ukrainian government rallied its allies to expand and accelerate deliveries of air defense systems needed to increase protection against massive missile attacks of the kind Russia conducted this week in retaliation for the bombing of the Kerch bridge. That country is Egypt. Putin and Sisi have been described as "power buddies" in a "close relationship," but that purported camaraderie didn't stop Cairo from agreeing to let Kyiv skip the line to receive Germany’s newly made Iris-T SLM air defense systems that had been promised to Egypt.
4. The Ukrainian military might lose its capability to communicate via Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite system unless the U.S. government or some other donor steps in to pick up further tabs. Musk estimates that Starlink in Ukraine had cost SpaceX $80 million, which would likely surpass $100 million by the end of the year, according to Bloomberg. The Ukrainian military has become so dependent on the system that one government official described a recent frontline loss of access to the system as “catastrophic.”
5. The Economist sees recession ending in Russia, while IMF predicts smaller contraction of GDP in 2022. The IMF has updated its forecast for the contraction of Russia’s economy in 2022 from 6% to 3.4%.  Moreover, according to The Economist, the “recession has probably now come to an end in Russia.” The Economist’s conclusion is partially based on analysis of Goldman Sachs’ “current-activity indicator,” which tracks the performance of national economies. This indicator suggests that Russian activity slumped in early 2022, but then rebounded in the summer, posting a growth of about 5%, which is more than other big European countries, according to The Economist.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi held talks Oct. 11 with Russian President Vladimir Putin on a safety and security zone around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP). Grossi said: "The situation in the region around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and elsewhere has become increasingly dangerous, precarious and challenging, with frequent military attacks that can also threaten nuclear safety and security.” Putin told Grossi he is "open to dialogue" on ZPNN and that the situation around the plant is "of concern." (IAEA, 10.11.22, RFE/RL, 10.11.22)
• Russian forces arrested Valeriy Martyniuk, a deputy director general for human resources at ZNPP, on Oct. 10 and he is being held at an unknown location, Ukraine’s Energoatom said. (NYT, 10.12.22)
• Grossi said on Oct. 12 that power has been restored at ZPNN after the second outage in five days highlighted the "precarious" situation concerning the station's nuclear safety and security functions. (RFE/RL, 10.12.22)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• An agreement on the JCPOA for the Iranian nuclear program is within reach, but many factors influence the situation, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. (TASS, 10.14.22)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russian investigators Oct. 8 said three people were killed after a truck exploded on the bridge linking Moscow-annexed Crimea to the mainland. The blast damaged a section of the dual road-and-rail Crimea Bridge over the Kerch Strait and a span of the road bridge collapsed into the sea on Oct. 8. Putin claimed that the blast was a "terrorist" act organized by Ukrainian special services. Putin described Russia’s air strikes on Ukraine, its most extensive since the early weeks of his seven-month invasion, as retaliation for the bombing of the bridge. The FSB said on Oct. 12 that it had arrested five Russian nationals and three citizens of Ukraine and Armenia over the explosion. The FSB said in a statement that the attack was organized by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, and its director Kyrylo Budanov. (RFE/RL, 10.12.22, MT/AFP, 10.08.22, RFE/RL, 10.08.22, RFE/RL, 10.11.22, FT, 10.10.22)
  • A senior Ukrainian official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of a government ban on discussing the blast, confirmed that Ukraine’s intelligence services were behind the bombing and said that explosives had been loaded onto a truck that was driven onto the bridge and detonated. (NYT, 10.10.22) 
• The strikes Russia launched in retaliation to the bombing of the Kerch bridge hit civilian targets, including energy facilities, across Ukraine this week. In just two days this week, Russian forces fired more than 100 cruise missiles and dozens of exploding drones at cities across Ukraine, leaving at least 20 people dead. (NYT, 10.12.22, NYT, 10.11.22. MT/AFP, 10.14.22)
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Russia's attack on civilian targets in the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia on Oct. 8-9 that killed 14 people was an act of "terrorism at state level.” (RFE/RL, 10.10.22)
  • Russian missiles targeted more than 40 Ukrainian cities and towns on Oct. 13, officials said, hitting critical infrastructure in Ukraine's capital region. (RFE/RL, 10.13.22)
  • Rolling blackouts are affecting towns and cities across Ukraine after widespread Russian attacks this week that officials say damaged about 30% of the country’s electrical infrastructure. (NYT, 10.13.22)
  • U.S. President Joe Biden on Oct. 10 condemned Russia's missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, saying they "demonstrate the utter brutality" of Putin's "illegal war." (MT/AFP, 10.10.22)
  • India and China, two powers that have offered Russia some relief in the face of Western sanctions, expressed concern after the deadly missile strikes across Ukraine on Oct. 10 and renewed calls for de-escalation and dialogue. (NYT, 10.11.22)
  • Russia’s missile attacks on Ukrainian cities “amount to war crimes,” the EU said. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called them “horrific and indiscriminate.” (FT, 10.10.22)
  • Three cruise missiles launched from Russian ships in the Black Sea had crossed Moldova’s airspace on Oct. 10. (FT, 10.10.22)
  • After unleashing the biggest barrage of missile strikes, Putin said in the Kazakh capital Astana on Oct. 14 that “there is no need for massive strikes for now.”  He noted, however, that of the 29 facilities the Russian defense ministry had planned to strike this week, seven have not been hit. (Bloomberg, 10.14.22, Kremlin.ru, 10.14.22)
• A U.N.-backed grain deal that has enabled Ukraine to export millions of tons of wheat is under strain. The number of vessels waiting to sail to or from Ukrainian ports reached a record high of 120 at the end of last week. Six vessels carrying nearly 154,000 tons of foods departed from Ukrainian ports on Oct. 13 after receiving approval from the Joint Coordination Center (JCC). (Interfax, 10.14.22, FT, 10.10.22)

• Russia and Ukraine are both seeking changes to their landmark grain-export deal as part of discussions to extend the initiative beyond the current deadline next month, according to the U.N. Russia wants to see a pipeline that transports its ammonia to Ukraine’s Odesa port for shipment reopened as part of the new terms. Ukraine is seeking to extend the deal by more than year, and include Mykolayiv as a fourth exporting port. Moscow is prepared to reject the renewal unless its demands are addressed. (RFE/RL, 10.13.22, Bloomberg, 10.14.22)

• The executive board of the IMF has approved an additional $1.3 billion in emergency funds for Ukraine. U.S. Treasury secretary Janet Yellen said that the U.S. had delivered $8.5 billion in grants for Ukraine and another $4.5 billion were just approved by Congress. (FT, 10.08.22, RFE/RL, 10.08.22)
• Kyiv has returned home 37 Ukrainian children who had been taken to Russia amid Moscow’s invasion, Ukraine’s ministry for reintegrating temporarily occupied territories said Oct. 11. (MT/AFP, 10.11.22) 
• Ukraine says 32 of its soldiers have been freed and the body of an Israeli citizen who fought for Ukraine has been returned in a prisoner swap with Russia. Ukraine did not provide details about the Russian prisoners involved in the exchange. Moscow and Kyiv then exchanged 20 soldiers, the two sides said on Oct. 13, in a second prisoner swap. (RFE/RL, 10.13.22, RFE/RL, 10.11.22)
• Zelensky, speaking virtually on Oct. 12 to finance ministers at meetings of the World Bank and IMF in Washington, said Ukraine needed about $55 billion to rebuild schools and homes. (RFE/RL, 10.13.22)
• Rapes and sexual assaults attributed to Moscow's forces in Ukraine are part of a Russian "military strategy" and a "deliberate tactic to dehumanize the victims," U.N. envoy Pramila Patten said Oct. 13. (MT/AFP, 10.14.22)
• Cold temperatures in Ukraine this winter risk causing a spike in respiratory diseases, hypothermia and frostbite and will be exacerbated by Russian missile attacks, the World Health Organization warned. (Bloomberg, 10.14.22)
• Russian-installed officials in occupied areas of Ukraine amplified calls for residents to leave the south as Kyiv's forces step up their campaign to retake the region and Russia builds fortifications to thwart their advance. (WSJ, 10.14.22)
• Senior Ukrainian officials are demanding that the International Committee of the Red Cross visit a notorious prison camp in the Russian-occupied town of Olenivka in Donetsk Province, accusing the aid group of inaction while “lives are at stake”—but the organization says its efforts to do so are being thwarted. (NYT, 10.14.22)

Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Russia's Defense Ministry on Oct. 8 said Gen. Sergei Surovikin is the new overall commander of Kremlin forces engaged in Ukraine. In appointing a man who has earned nicknames such as “the fierce one” and “General Armageddon,” Putin has signaled he will react to Russia’s battlefield failures by intensifying the war, analysts say. Surovikin is notorious for his campaigns in Syria, where he served two stints as commander of Russian forces. He has also commanded Russia’s aerospace forces. (RFE/RL, 10.08.22, FT, 10.11.22)
• Ukrainian commanders estimate that HIMARS are responsible for 70% of military advances on the Kherson front, the unit's commander, Lt. Valentyn Koval, said. The four vehicles in his unit have killed hundreds of Russians and destroyed about 20 antiaircraft batteries, he said. (WSJ, 10.08.22)
• Musk said Oct. 14 he cut financial support for the Starlink satellite saying he could not keep funding the service and others should step in. A week ago he tweeted that Starlink in Ukraine had cost SpaceX $80 million, which would likely surpass $100 million by the end of the year. (Bloomberg, 10.14.22)
  • Ukrainian troops have reported outages of their Starlink communication devices on the frontline. Some of the outages led to a “catastrophic” loss of communication in recent weeks, said one senior Ukrainian government official. (FT, 10.08.22)
• “We know—and Russian commanders on the ground know—that their supplies and munitions are running out. Russia’s forces are exhausted. The use of prisoners to reinforce, and now the mobilization of tens of thousands of inexperienced conscripts, speaks of a desperate situation,” said Sir Jeremy Fleming, head of British cyber intelligence unit GCHQ. (FT, 10.11.22)
• Zelensky held emergency phone calls with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to discuss air defense and other military aid. Macron then said France will supply air-defense systems to Ukraine. Additionally, the German Defense Ministry said that the first of four IRIS-T air defense systems promised to Ukraine would arrive in the "next few days.” Iris-T SLMs had been promised to Egypt, but Cairo agreed to let Kyiv skip the line. It is designed to protect population centers and other large areas from aircraft, missile, rocket and drone attacks, although it is so new that it has never been used on the battlefield. (NYT, 10.12.22, WP, 10.10.22) Putin and Sisi have been described as "power buddies" in a "close relationship," but that apparently didn't stop Sisi from agreeing to let Ukraine skip the line to receive German-made Iris-T SLM air defense systems that had been promised to Egypt.¹
• Britain on Oct. 13 announced that it would send Ukraine AMRAAM antiaircraft. Spain promised four medium-range Hawk launchers. (WP, 10.13.22)
• The irretrievable losses of the Russian army in Ukraine may have reached 90,000, according to a former FSB officer and another source. These losses include those killed, missing, dying from wounds in hospitals, as well as the wounded who cannot return to military service.  (Istories, 10.12.22)
• Ukraine's recent military victories against the Russian invaders have been "extraordinary" and influenced the course of the war despite the "malice and cruelty" of Moscow's latest missile strikes, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told a meeting at NATO headquarters. (RFE/RL, 10.12.22)
• Ukraine said on Oct. 12 that it had liberated five more settlements in the southern region of Kherson: Novovasylivka, [Novohryhorivka], Nova Kamyanka, Tryfonivka, Chervone. (RFE/RL, 10.12.22)
• The EU is to agree next week to set up a mission to train thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, the bloc’s chief diplomat said on Oct. 13, after member states reached a deal on a plan to increase Brussels’ support for Kyiv. (FT, 10.13.22)
  • Formally headquartered in Brussels, the actual training of the Ukrainian military personnel by the EU will happen mainly in south-east Poland, with a smaller training site in Germany. EU troops will train Ukrainians according to Kyiv’s needs, officials said, with additional instruction tailored to the specific weapons systems being provided to Ukraine by EU governments. (FT, 10.14.22)
• Reports from Ukrainian military intelligence that Belarus had sent 492 tons of weapons and military equipment by rail to Russian forces in Crimea suggested Moscow was probably not building up a new attack force in Belarus, ISW said. Daniel Speckhard, a former U.S. ambassador to Minsk, said it made no sense for Russia’s overstretched military to open up another long front in Belarus. (FT, 10.12.22)
• There are questions over how many missiles Russia has left and how long it can sustain a bombing campaign. The missiles "are being produced. But in single units. And the old reserves are running out," one Russian state official said. (WP, 10.13.22)
• The Russian military has lost 6,000 pieces of equipment since invading Ukraine and has been expending munitions at a rate it cannot replace, according to a newly released U.S. government report. The United States also began detecting that Russia was short of critical supplies for diesel engines, helicopter and aircraft engine parts and its armored tanks as early as May, according to the report. Moscow has also had trouble fulfilling its sales to foreign militaries. Russia is experiencing a shortage of bearings, which has undermined the production and repairs of tanks, aircraft, submarines and other military systems, according to the U.S. government report. (NYT, 10.14.22)
• “No,” was Putin’s quick response when asked by a reporter whether he had any regrets about the war. “What’s happening now isn’t very pleasant, to put it mildly. But we would have faced all the same just later and on worse terms for us,” he told journalists in the Kazakh capital Astana on Oct. 14. “We’re acting in a correct and timely way.” (Bloomberg, 10.14.22)
• Ukraine's military has recaptured more than 600 settlements from the Russian forces over the past month, according to the Ministry for Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories. (RFE/RL, 10.14.22)

Punitive measures related to Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Egypt has shelved plans to apply the Russian MIR payment card system in its resorts and hotels amid worries of possible U.S. sanctions, according to a source at Egypt's largest state-owned bank. (Al Jazeera, 10.08.22)
• The U.S. warned Hong Kong that assisting sanctioned individuals could threaten its status as a financial hub, after a $500 million Nord vessel tied to Russia tycoon Alexei Mordashov arrived in Hong Kong on Oct. 12. (Bloomberg, 10.09.22)
• China’s zero-Covid policy and fragile housing market, the need to raise interest rates to control inflation in advanced economies and higher energy and food prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will lower world economic growth from 3.2% in 2022 to 2.7% next year, the IMF predicted. (IMF, 10.11.22)
• Russian billionaire Yuri Milner has renounced his Russian citizenship. (RFE/RL, 10.11.22)
• Japanese automaker Nissan will sell its Russian assets—including a factory in St. Petersburg—to the Russian government. (MT/AFP, 10.11.22)
• British businessman Graham Bonham-Carter, who worked for Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, has been arrested in London after being charged by U.S. authorities for allegedly assisting his boss in evading sanctions. (FT, 10.12.22)
• Russia's financial monitoring service, Rosfinmonitoring, has added U.S. tech giant Meta Platforms Inc. to its registry of "terrorists and extremists." (RFE/RL, 10.11.22)
• Russian tourists holding Schengen visas will be turned away by the Czech Republic starting later this month. (RFE/RL, 10.12.22)
• Swedish furniture giant IKEA announced that it would be making around 10,000 of its remaining Russian staff redundant on Oct. 13. (MT/AFP, 10.13.22)
• Danone is seeking an exit from its dairy and yogurt business in Russia in a transaction that could result in a write-off of up to €1 billion. The French group said on Oct. 14 that it would “initiate a process to transfer the effective control” of the business, which includes 13 factories, 7,200 employees and accounts for 5% of its annual sales of about €24 billion. (FT, 10.14.22)
• In a criminal complaint filed on Oct. 13, the Bordeaux-based NGO Darwin Climax Coalitions and Ukraine’s Razom We Stand alleged that a Siberian gasfield part-owned by Total supplied feedstock for jet fuel suspected to have been used by the Russian military against Ukrainian civilians. (FT, 10.14.22)
• Russian oil major Rosneft has filed a legal complaint against the German government’s move last month to take control of its assets in the country. (Bloomberg, 10.14.22)

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister, said only former U.S. President Donald Trump could end the war in Ukraine, as he called for direct talks between the U.S. and Russia on establishing a ceasefire. Orbán said Biden had gone “too far” in calling  Putin a war criminal and saying in March that he “cannot remain in power.” (FT, 10.11.22)
• The Kremlin denied reports that Musk spoke with Putin before he tweeted his proposal for ending the war in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 10.12.22)
• Zelensky has again ruled out talks with Russia to end Moscow's war against his country. "Today, with Russia, there cannot be diplomacy as there used to be. There cannot be respect for the leadership of a country that kills, captures, does not respect international law," Zelensky said. (RFE/RL, 10.13.22)
• Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not discuss the Ukraine war during a bilateral meeting in Kazakhstan on Oct. 13, the Kremlin said. Before the meeting, Erdogan indicated that he was ready to mediate in the conflict, saying diplomacy could offer a chance for "a fair peace" that would stop the bloodshed. (RFE/RL, 10.13.22)
• Putin must "return to the table" to discuss making peace in Ukraine, Macron said Oct. 12, adding that he thought Kyiv would have to negotiate with him at some point. Asked if he would back a Ukrainian offensive to recapture Crimea, Macron said that "at some point as the conflict develops" both Russia and Ukraine "will have to come back to the table." (MT/AFP, 10.13.22)
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says Moscow remains "open for talks" with Kyiv on Russia's ongoing unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, stressing that the "goals of the special military operation" in Ukraine's east "remain unchanged." (RFE/RL, 10.13.22)
• “Ask Biden,” Putin said when asked if he is ready to negotiate with the U.S. leader at the G20. “I do not see the need, to be honest, there is still no platform for any kind of negotiations” with the U.S. president, Putin said on the sidelines of a CICA summit in Kazakhstan. At the same time, “we have always said that we are open” for negotiations with Ukraine on ending the war, Putin said, adding that Xi and Modi have continued to call for a negotiated end to the war. (RM, 10.14.22)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Biden has held hours of conversations in recent months with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and other foreign leaders who have not always supported the Western coalition in support of Ukraine, urging them to stand firm against Putin. (WP, 10.11.22)
• A group of NATO members and Finland, which is in the process of joining the alliance, has signed a letter of intent to procure air-defense systems as part of a project to improve and coordinate Europe's security in the skies. (RFE/RL, 10.13.22)
• America’s new National Security Strategy said, “America is helping to make Russia’s war on Ukraine a strategic failure. … [T]he United States will continue to support Ukraine in its fight for its freedom, we will help Ukraine recover economically, and we will encourage its regional integration with the European Union.” (Whitehouse.gov, 10.12.22) However, the document keeps mum on the prospects of Ukraine’s NATO membership.

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• America’s new National Security Strategy said, “The PRC and Russia are increasingly aligned with each other but the challenges they pose are, in important ways, distinct. ... Russia poses an immediate and ongoing threat to the regional security order in Europe and it is a source of disruption and instability globally but it lacks the across the spectrum capabilities of the PRC. ... The United States has a vital interest in deterring aggression by the PRC, Russia, and other states. ... We will prioritize maintaining an enduring competitive edge over the PRC while constraining a still profoundly dangerous Russia.” (Whitehouse.gov, 10.12.22)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• It appears that the 12th Main Directorate of the Ministry of Defense troops can keep nuclear weapons outside of the storage facility for some time, probably days and maybe even weeks. However, at some point the weapons must be returned to the base-level facility that provides conditions for long-term storage. (Pavel Podvig’s blog, 10.07.22)
• Biden's warning this past week that Russia's threats to use nuclear weapons amounted to the most serious "prospect of Armageddon in 60 years" was not based on any new intelligence or information collected by the government, U.S. officials said Oct. 7, but rather Biden's own assessment of what Putin could be capable of. (WP, 10.08.22)
• The U.S. national-security spokesman Kirby said Biden’s recent warnings of possible "Armageddon" in relation to Putin’s continued references to his nuclear arsenal were not based on any specific developments and that the White House does not see an imminent threat. (RFE/RL, 10.09.22)
• Even though Putin called for his nuclear forces to go on alert in late February, there has been no evidence that they did. (NYT, 10.09.22)
• A reporter from the state-run Russian news outlet RIA Novosti asked Putin’s spokesman whether the “terrorist attack” against the Kerch bridge fell within the category under Russian defense doctrine that allowed for a nuclear response. “No,” Peskov responded. (NYT, 10.10.22) 
• Reflecting on the war in Ukraine, Pope Francis urged the world to learn from history on the threat of nuclear war and choose the path of peace while he also lamented the plight of Ukrainians forced to flee that conflict. (RFE/RL, 10.09.22)
• Austin reaffirmed Washington's commitment to defend "every inch" of NATO territory ahead of a meeting in Brussels of defense ministers from the alliance on Oct. 13 that was to include closed-door discussions by its nuclear planning group. (RFE/RL, 10.13.22)
• Steadfast Noon is NATO’s annual exercise “to ensure that our nuclear deterrent remains safe, secure and effective,”  according to Stoltenberg. The exercise is to be launched on Oct. 10 and last one week. It had been planned before the invasion of Ukraine, according to Stoltenberg and would be taking place 625 miles from Russia. It will involve 14 NATO members, and nuclear-capable aircraft, but no live weapons in what indicates the 2022 exercise won’t be very different from the 2021 exercise. (AP, 10.11.22, FT, 10.11.22, NATO, 10.11.22)
• A Russian nuclear strike against Ukraine would trigger "such a powerful answer" from the West that the Russian army would be "annihilated," said Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief. (Euronews, 10.13.22)
• Macron has faced criticism from within NATO for stating that France would not respond with nuclear weapons if Russia used its own atomic arsenal against Ukraine or “the region,” which broke with the standard policy of “strategic ambiguity.” (FT, 10.13.22)
• America’s new National Security Strategy said, “The United States will not allow Russia, or any power, to achieve its objectives through using, or threatening to use, nuclear weapons. America retains an interest in preserving strategic stability and developing a more expansive, transparent and verifiable arms control infrastructure to succeed New START and in rebuilding European security arrangements which, due to Russia’s actions, have fallen in to disrepair. Finally, the United States will sustain and develop pragmatic modes of interaction to handle issues on which dealing with Russia can be mutually beneficial.” (Whitehouse.gov, 10.12.22)
• “A direct collision with the Russian army would be a very dangerous step that could lead to a global catastrophe,” Putin warned on Oct. 14. (RM, 10.14.22)
• New START Treaty Aggregate Numbers of Strategic Offensive Arms as reported by the U.S. State Department and Russian Foreign Ministry: no major changes, as both sides continue to comply. (RM, 10.14.22)

	As of September 2022	% change since March 2022	% change since reporting began in June 2011
U.S. Deployed Delivery Systems  (Ceiling: 700)	659	-3.9%	-25.3%
Russian Deployed Delivery Systems (Ceiling: 700)	540	2.7%	3.6%
U.S. Warheads on Deployed Systems (Ceiling: 1,550)	1420	-6.3%	-21.1%
Russian Warheads on Deployed Systems (Ceiling: 1,550)	1549	5.1%	0.8%
U.S. Deployed and Non-Deployed Delivery Systems (Ceiling: 800)	800	0.0%	-28.8%
Russian Deployed and Non-Deployed Delivery Systems (Ceiling: 800)	759	-0.3%	-12.3%

Counterterrorism:

• America’s new National Security Strategy said, “Today’s terrorist threat is more ideologically diverse and geographically diffuse than that of two decades ago. Al-Qaida, ISIS and associated forces have expanded from Afghanistan and the Middle East into Africa and Southeast Asia. ... We face an increased and significant threat within the United States from a range of domestic violent extremists, including those motivated by racial or ethnic prejudice, as well as anti-government or anti-authority sentiment.” (Whitehouse.gov, 10.12.22)

Conflict in Syria:

• U.S. and Russian troops exchanged friendly greetings and posed for pictures together over the weekend on a northeast Syria highway in a rare display of congeniality between the rival forces. Both Washington and Moscow have troops on the ground in Syria backing opposing sides of the war that has ravaged the Middle Eastern country since 2011. Russia's war in Ukraine since February has exacerbated geopolitical tensions with the United States. (MT/AFP, 10.10.22)

Cyber security:

• An apparently coordinated denial-of-service attack organized by pro-Russia hackers rendered the websites of some major U.S. airports unreachable early Oct. 10, though officials said flights were not affected. Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport was affected and the Chicago Department of Aviation said in a statement that websites for O'Hare International and Midway airports went offline early Oct. 10. (AP, 10.11.22)

Energy exports from CIS:

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said the move by OPEC+ to cut oil production was “unhelpful and unwise” for the global economy, particularly emerging markets already struggling with high energy prices. Senate Foreign Relations Chair Bob Menendez is vowing to block all future weapons sales to Saudi Arabia and urging the Biden administration to “immediately freeze all aspects” of U.S. cooperation with the kingdom. (FT, 10.08.22, Politco, 10.10.22)
  • Putin has defended last week’s decision by OPEC+ to collectively reduce oil production by 2 million barrels a day, adding that Russia and the cartel will continue to coordinate actions. Speaking at a Russian energy forum, Putin said the decision, which sent shockwaves through energy markets, was “aimed solely at balancing the world market” and that critics were looking for a “scapegoat.” (FT, 10.12.22)
• EU countries have imported more than €100 billion worth of coal, oil and gas from Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in February, as part of the bloc’s higher overall consumption of fossil fuels so far in 2022, Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimated. (FT, 10.08.22.)
• Output of oil and gas, the lifeblood of Russia’s economy, is about 3% lower than before the invasion. (The Economist, 10.13.22)
• Russia has lost three-fifths of its seaborne crude sales in Europe since Moscow sent troops into Ukraine in February. That market is going to vanish almost completely eight weeks from now and the latest sanctions will make it very difficult to divert flows elsewhere. Crude shipments to Europe averaged 630,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Oct. 7, down from 1.62 million before the invasion. (Bloomberg, 10.10.22)
• Tankers carrying Russia’s oil are now forced to spend four times as long making each delivery to India as they would previously have done shipping a cargo to the Netherlands, or 10 times as long as it would have taken to get to Gdansk in Poland. (Bloomberg, 10.10.22)
• Putin said that repairing the Nord Stream pipelines is possible only if it is economically viable to do so. (FT, 10.12.22)
• Sweden has said it will not allow Moscow to participate in its ongoing investigation into the causes of multiple leaks in underwater pipelines transporting Russian natural gas to Europe. Russia's foreign ministry said Oct. 13 it had summoned envoys of Germany, Denmark and Sweden to express "bewilderment" over Moscow's exclusion from an investigation into leaks on the Nord Stream pipelines. (MT/AFP, 10.13.22, RFE/RL, 10.10.22)
• Western countries have ramped up their military presence in the Baltic and North Seas in response to suspected Russian sabotage of undersea gas pipelines while top NATO officials issued fresh warnings to Moscow against targeting critical infrastructure in Europe. (FP, 10.12.22)
• A leak has been found in the Druzhba oil pipeline that links Russia and Germany but officials say sabotage is not suspected. (RFE/RL, 10.12.22)
• Gazprom's chief executive, Alexei Miller, on Oct. 12 warned "entire cities" in Europe could freeze and said there were no guarantees Europe could survive the winter with the current levels of gas reserves. (WP, 10.13.22)
• France began pumping natural gas directly to Germany for the first time on Oct. 13, part of a landmark agreement struck by both governments to help each other confront Europe’s energy crisis as Russia cuts off gas supplies to Europe. (NYT, 10.13.22)
• Erdogan welcomed Putin’s proposal to turn Turkey into a regional hub for natural gas, potentially positioning the country as a key route for Russian flows to Europe. The Turkish president met Putin in Kazakhstan on Oct. 13 and they agreed to establish an international gas hub, most likely in the Thrace region bordering Greece and Bulgaria, state-run Anadolu Agency reported. (Bloomberg, 10.14.22)
• Sri Lanka’s 7.1 million barrels of crude oil imports last year came from the United Arab Emirates, but Russia has accounted for 2.6 million barrels since May, about 79% of the total ordered, according to Refinitiv. Data from OilX showed 60% of Sri Lanka’s crude imports since May have come from Russia. (FT, 10.12.22).
• Germany met a crucial natural-gas storage target more than two weeks ahead of plan, but the country’s energy regulator warned that wasn’t enough to guarantee supplies during the coldest months. Gas storage in Europe’s biggest economy is now on average 95.14% full, ahead of a Nov. 1 deadline, according to the Economy Ministry. In comparison, it was at only 72% in October 2021. (Bloomberg, 10.14.22)
  • Four months before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Germany still claimed that the opening of a new gas pipeline from Russia would pose no risk to energy supplies for the country or the wider European Union, according to a declassified security document. (Bloomberg, 10.14.22)
• The Group of Seven, along with Australia, are working to put into place a plan ahead of a Dec. 5 deadline that would bar the use of financing, insuring and shipping services for Russian oil unless the oil is sold below a set price limit. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said this week that Russia had sold oil for around $60 a barrel in recent history—hinting at a possible level for the cap. That would set the price above Russia's cost of production, which some Russian government documents put at roughly $45 a barrel. (WSJ, 10.14.22)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Jareh Sebastian Dalke, a former U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) employee accused of trying to sell classified information to Russia, will remain behind bars while he is prosecuted, a judge ruled on Oct. 11. (RFE/RL, 10.12.22)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia's recession will be less severe than expected due to oil exports and relatively stable domestic demand, according to the latest IMF forecasts released on Oct. 11. While the IMF estimates Russia's economy to have contracted by 21.8% during the second quarter at a quarterly annualized rate, for the year as a whole, the Russian economy is now forecast to contract only 3.4%. That is a considerable improvement from the 6% annual drop the IMF forecast in June. (MT/AFP, 10.11.22)
• The recession has probably now come to an end in Russia, as indicated by Goldman Sachs’ “current-activity indicator,” which tracks how economies are doing month to month. The data suggest Russian activity slumped in early 2022, but rebounded in summer, posting a growth of about 5%, which is more than other big European countries. (The Economist, 10.13.22, RM, 10.13.22)
• Russia’s budget surplus nearly disappeared this year, reflecting rising expenditures from the Ukraine war and falling oil and gas revenues. In the nine months to September, Russia registered a surplus of 55 billion rubles ($86 million), according to data published on Oct. 12 by its ministry of finance. This was down from a surplus of 1.5 trillion rubles for the five months to the end of May. (FT, 10.12.22)
• Before the mobilization, Vladislav Inozemtsev, an economist, was expecting the Russian economy to shrink by about 5% this year; he now expects twice as big a contraction. (The Economist, 10.06.22.)
• In September, Sberbank closed 527 of its branches, thus reducing the network of offices to 12,400. In absolute terms, the number of Sberbank branches closed in September was the highest since May 2006. (Meduza, 10.13.22)
• America’s new National Security Strategy said, “Domestically, the Russian government under President Putin violates its citizens’ human rights, suppresses its opposition, and shutters independent media. Russia now has a stagnant political system that is unresponsive to the needs of its people. ... Notwithstanding the Russian government’s strategic miscalculation in attacking Ukraine, it is the Russian people who will determine Russia’s future as a major power capable of once more playing a constructive role in international affairs.” (Whitehouse.gov, 10.12.22)
• "No one is happy with the status quo," one Russian state official said. "It is clear that a military or political victory will not be possible. But a loss is not possible either. This is turning into the situation in chess known as zugzwang, when each step is worse than the next and yet it is impossible not to move." "We have begun entering a revolutionary situation," another state official said. "Everyone is waiting for something other than what is happening now: a different leadership, a different war. The hawks want tougher action. The doves want no war at all. The time for a change of the political system is ripening.” (WP, 10.13.22)
• Jailed Russian opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza has won the Vaclav Havel Human Rights Prize awarded annually by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) to honor "outstanding" civil society action in the defense of human rights. (RFE/RL, 10.10.22)
• Human Rights Watch has blasted Russian accusations of high treason against Kara-Murza as "the third baseless charge" since his detention six months ago. (RFE/RL, 10.09.22)
• Russians are increasingly buying books about Nazi Germany and World War II following Putin’s “partial” mobilization of civilian reservists for the war in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 10.11.22)

Defense and aerospace:

• Some 222,000 Russians already have been drafted and 16,000 of them have been deployed “in units that get involved in fulfilling combat tasks,” Putin told a news conference in Astana on Oct. 14, adding that he expects the mobilization to be completed within two weeks. Russian media has reported at least seven deaths among people who were recently drafted. Asked on Oct. 14 why some mobilized servicemen had died so soon after mobilization began, Putin said that in some cases training could take just 10 days. (NYT, 10.14.22)
• Military and law enforcement officials in Moscow and St. Petersburg on Oct. 14 were seen inspecting the identity papers of passers-by around the entrance to metro stations and handing out draft notices to eligible men in the hallways of apartment buildings. (MT/AFP, 10.14.22)
• Three weeks after the start of the mobilization, Muscovites began to report the appearance of police and military registration and enlistment office employees in the most unexpected places—at points of assistance to the homeless and the needy, cheap hostels where labor migrants settle, at rehearsal bases and in office centers. (Media Zone, 10.11.22)
• Since at least the end of September, the Russian Defense Ministry has been recruiting prisoners from the “red” colonies, where former members of law enforcement agencies are serving their sentences, to participate in the “special operation” in Ukraine. (Meduza/Istories,10.11.22)
• Russian lawmakers have proposed a bill that would allow the granting of amnesties to prisoners enlisting to fight in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 10.13.22) 
• Sixty-four percent of respondents of a Levada poll have heard that mercenaries and private military companies (PMCs) are taking part in the fighting in Ukraine on the Russian side: 27% have heard a lot about this, 37% have heard something, according to Levada's September poll. Sixty-three percent of respondents consider it acceptable to use PMCs: 30% believe that it is absolutely acceptable, while a third say it is rather acceptable. About a quarter (26%) consider it unacceptable. (Levada Center, 10.13.22)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Russia's Supreme Court has rejected the appeals of four former Moscow police officers against prison terms they were handed for the 2019 arrest of investigative journalist Ivan Golunov on trumped-up drug charges. (RFE/RL, 10.11.22)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Exports from Turkey to Russia have soared since the start of Putin’s invasion in February. The value of exports from Turkey to the country more than doubled year on year in August, rising to $949 million, up from $451 million in August 2021. In July this year the figure was $729 million. (FT, 10.11.22)
• Israel's Iron Dome air defense, which boasts a 90% success rate against rockets fired against it, will stay out of Ukraine's reach, said experts, as Jerusalem seeks to maintain strategic relations with Russia in Syria and other hot spots. (WP, 10.12.22)
• The Israeli government has said it intends to open temporary camps in Azerbaijan for Russian Jews seeking to move to Israel in the wake of the war in Ukraine. (MT/Eurasianet, 10.13.22)
• Italy’s Parliament has elected Lorenzo Fontana, a close ally of Matteo Salvini in his populist League and a Eurosceptic admirer of Putin, as its new speaker. (FT, 10.13.22)

Ukraine:

• The U.N. General Assembly has overwhelmingly condemned Russia's proclaimed annexation of four Ukrainian regions in eastern and southern Ukraine. More than three-quarters of the 193-member General Assembly on Oct. 12 voted in favor of a resolution that called Moscow's move illegal. Only Syria, Nicaragua, North Korea and Belarus joined Russia in voting against the resolution. Thirty-five countries, including China, India, South Africa and Pakistan, abstained. (RFE/RL, 10.12.22)
• The Kremlin-friendly Public Opinion Foundation (FOM) published the results of a poll, according to which almost 80% of Russians supported the "accession" of the self-proclaimed DNR, LNR, as well as the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions to Russia. (Meduza, 10.12.22)
• Kyrylo Shevchenko, former head of the National Bank of Ukraine who resigned on Oct. 4 citing health reasons, is suspected of having embezzled funds from Ukrgasbank, which he had chaired before heading the NBU. Without naming names, Ukrainian investigators have alleged that a former chair of Ukrgasbank had teamed up with two deputies to siphon off 206 million hryvnia ($5.6 million) by authorizing payments to intermediaries for bringing new clients to the bank. Head of Ukrgasbank VIP clients department, Alexei Lytui, has been arrested while Shevchenko is believed to have fled the country and is now on Ukraine’s wanted list. (Ukrainian News, 10.07.22, FT, 10.06.22, Strana.ua, 10.13.22)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Belarus’s leader Alexander Lukashenko said he and Putin had agreed to set up a joint group of troops “because of the escalation on the western borders” of both countries, according to Belarus state news agency Belta on Oct. 10. His remarks follow a meeting with Putin last week. (FT, 10.10.22)
• A court in Belarus's eastern region of Mahilyou has sentenced a man to 11 years in prison on charges of joining a group involved in damaging railways to disrupt the supply of Russian arms and troops to Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 10.13.22)
• Moldovan President Maia Sandu has called on the government to give special powers to security forces to crack down on an ongoing street protest that she said was aimed at installing a pro-Russian leadership (RFE/RL, 10.11.22)
• Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan on the sidelines of the summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia. Tokayev thanked China for its support of Kazakhstan's initiative to transform the CICA into a full-fledged international organization. (TASS, 10.14.22)
• Moscow has slammed as "unacceptable" a comment by Macron that Moscow was "destabilizing" the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan. (RFE/RL, 10.13.22)
• Across the former Soviet region, with the exception of Moscow loyalist Belarus, Russia’s role of policeman and power broker appears to be eroding. The unity of the six-member CSTO security bloc, Moscow’s answer to NATO, has taken a hit in recent weeks. When Armenia, a CSTO member, appealed to the bloc for help after renewed fighting with Azerbaijan last month, no military aid was sent. Last week Kyrgyzstan’s Defense Ministry canceled the "Indestructible Brotherhood-2022" command and staff exercises with the CSTO peacekeeping forces. The exercises were to be held in the city of Balykchy on Oct. 10–14. They had invited observers from Uzbekistan, Serbia, Syria, Turkmenistan and Mongolia. (FT, 10.13.22, Kommersat, 10.09.22)

 

IV. Quotable and notable

• “They are scared shitless of him [Putin]. But it's fear without respect. There has been no respect [for Putin] for a couple of years now,” said a Meduza source close to the government. Two more interlocutors close to the government and one source close to the Kremlin spoke about such sentiments in the cabinet of ministers. (Meduza, 10.07.22)
• Justin Bronk, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank in London, said it was “only a slight exaggeration to say that there are not enough air defense systems in the world to provide total protection to all of Ukraine from air attack.” (FT, 10.11.22)
• “Russian military problems are not the kind that can be resolved by appointing a different commander,” said Michael Kofman, military analyst and director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA, a U.S. defense think-tank. “But if you look at [Surovikin’s] performance since the summer [when he commanded Russian troops on the southern front], Russian forces in the south have fared the least worst.” (FT, 10.12.22)

 

Footnotes

1. Here and elsewhere italicized text represents contextual commentary by RM staff.