Russia in Review, Oct. 31-Nov. 4, 2016

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

  • Scientists have found a way to spot nuclear smugglers—by looking at their nail clippings: Researchers from the University of Missouri have demonstrated that different ratios of enriched uranium in hair and nails can distinguish people who have handled the material recently from those who haven’t. (Quartz, 11.03.16)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

  • No significant developments.

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

  • Russia is increasing its military capabilities on its western border in response to NATO’s build-up of its forces, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has said. Russia wants to increase the number of troops along its European frontier by about 30,000. (RFE/RL, 11.02.16)
  • Russian and Belarusian commanders will take into account NATO’s increased activity near the borders of their Union State when developing the scenario of their joint drills, West-2017, Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has said. (TASS, 11.02.16)
  • Russian paratroopers launched joint exercises with Serbian military units on Nov. 2. A day earlier, teams from 32 NATO members and partner countries began drilling in neighboring Montenegro. (RFE/RL, 11.02.16)
  • NATO countries have refused to discuss issues of air security in the Baltic at an expert meeting in Moscow, Russia’s Permanent Representative to NATO Alexander Grushko has said. (TASS, 10.31.16)
  • Viktor Mizin, a senior researcher with the Russian Foreign Ministry’s MGIMO Institute, said recently on Russian national television: “We should not be afraid of a small war with the use of nuclear weapons. We have a great nuclear shield.” (Rosbalt, in Russian, 11.03.16)
  • British defense secretary Michael Fallon said suggestions that Britain could go to war with Russia next year are “too extreme.” Asked if Britain would have the army capability for a war with Russia in 2018 or 2019, Fallon said: “Yes, we would be ready to increase the tempo in that kind of situation, which I don’t immediately foresee.” (Independent, 11.01.16, Mirror, 11.01.16)
  • "This is where the accident—God forbid—would more likely occur," U.S. Air Force Secretary Deborah James has said of the Baltic region, an area of critical importance to NATO where the alliance abuts Russia. (U.S. News and World Report, 11.03.16)
  • "While we didn't build anything new for 25 years, and neither did our allies, others did—including Russia, North Korea, China, Pakistan, India and for a period of time Iran," U.S. Secretary of State Ashton Carter said of the U.S. nuclear arsenal of land-based missiles, submarines and bombers. "We can't wait any longer." (Washington Examiner, 11.03.16)
  • Montenegro’s bid to join NATO is progressing smoothly despite strong opposition from Russia, NATO Deputy Secretary-General Rose Gottemoeller has said. Montenegro will become a NATO member next spring. Meanwhile, a U.S. national security official told NBC that U.S. officials believe Russia interfered in recent elections in Montenegro, secretly funneling money to pro-Russian opposition parties and using various media outlets and "influencers" to undermine the pro-West party and to highlight the risks of joining NATO. Russian officials denied any interference in the election. (AP, 11.03.16, NBC, 11.03.16)
  • Only 30% of Americans regard Russia's territorial ambitions as a "critical threat"—compared with 38% who regard China's military power as such. Yet 56% of Russians see American ambitions abroad as a "critical threat,” according to a joint study put out by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Levada Analytical Center. More Russians (63%) believed Islamic fundamentalism was a "critical threat" to their country than Americans (59%). (The Washington Post, 11.04.16)

Missile defense:

  • No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

  • No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism:

  • Russia’s federal security service, known as the FSB, has blacklisted the religious group Aum Shinrikyo as a terrorist organization. (RBTH, 11.02.16)

Conflict in Syria:

  • Two Russian soldiers and a Syrian journalist were injured in Aleppo on Nov. 4 when mortar rounds struck one of the exit corridors designated for the evacuation of rebels and residents from the eastern besieged part of the city during a temporary halt in fighting announced by Russia. For several hours into the 10-hour pause, which began at 9 a.m. local time, no one approached the corridors. Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of Russia's general staff, said the "humanitarian pause" had been ordered by President Vladimir Putin and coordinated with the Syrian government. Moscow stopped bombing the city ahead of a three-day truce on Oct. 20, but that moratorium on airstrikes was to expire on Nov. 4. (AP, 11.04.16, Wall Street Journal, 11.02.16, 11.03.16, New York Times, 11.02.16)
  • Russia’s defense minister accused the Syrian rebels on Nov. 1 of massive shelling of residential areas in the city of Aleppo. Sergei Shoigu said that over 2,000 militants backed by dozens of tanks and armored vehicles have launched attacks on homes, schools and hospitals in the government-controlled part of the city. (AP, 11.01.16)
  • Russia’s defense minister assailed NATO for applying pressure to deny port access to Russian warships en route to Syria’s shores. Sergei Shoigu said the denial hasn’t affected the mission of a Russian aircraft carrier group. As of Nov. 4, the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov and escorting vessels were stationed off Crete, about two days of sailing from the Syrian coast. (Haaretz, 11.04.16, AP, 11.01.16, New York Times, 11.02.16)
  • Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov has dismissed speculations by the British daily The Times that Russia is allegedly getting ready for a major offensive on Aleppo. (TASS, 11.01.16)
  • U.S. and Russian defense officials have discussed additional flight safety measures in Syria during a video conference. Russia and the U.S. exchanged opinions concerning flight safety incidents that took place after their previous video conference, which took place Sept. 22. (Russia Today, 11.03.16)
  • Senior Russian diplomat Alexei Borodavkin urged the incoming U.S. president to work with his country to resolve the war in Syria. He said President Vladimir Putin is seeking to cement a more-than-two-week pause in the bombing of Aleppo into a lasting truce through talks with the U.S. and regional powers.(Bloomberg, 11.02.16)
  • A Russian helicopter made an emergency landing near Palmyra on Nov. 3 and was shot at after it touched down, but the crew returned safely to the Hmeimim air base, Russian news agencies quoted Russia's defense ministry as saying. (Reuters, 11.04.16)
  • The start of this year proved deadly for one unit of about 100 Russian fighters supporting President Bashar al-Assad's troops in northern Syria as private contractors. One of the men killed was a former assistant to a nationalist lawmaker in Russia’s parliament. He and a fellow fighter, also killed in Syria, had fought in Ukraine as part of the same unit that would eventually take them to Syria. It was led by a man who goes by the nomme de guerre “Vagner.” (Reuters, 11.03.16, Vestnik Kavkaza, 11.03.16)
  • Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has ruled out political changes until government forces win the war and declared that he expected to be president at least until his third seven-year term ends in 2021.(New York Times, 11.01.16)
  • China’s special envoy to Syria Xie Xiaoyuan urged the United States and Russia to resume talks, less than a week after Russian officials said the political process would be “postponed indefinitely.” (AP, 11.04.16)
  • The Russian Embassy in London has sent a written complaint to the British Foreign Office after a mountain of fake limbs were dumped outside its embassy Nov. 3. The protest was aimed at Russia's military campaign in Syria.(The Moscow Times, 11.04.16)
  • At the launch of the University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll, researchers explored Americans’ views on ISIS and Syria. According to the poll, 67% of Republicans, 53% of Democrats and 67% of independents would like to see the United States work alongside Russia in the fight against ISIS in Syria. At the same time 30% of Democrats and 8% of Republicans named Vladimir Putin their least-liked world leader. (Foreign Policy, 12.01.16)
  • A new poll by the Levada Center shows that support among Russians for Moscow’s airstrikes in Syria is still high: 52% of respondents said they support the attacks overall, a little lower than a year ago, when it was 55%. But the number of those who “fully” support the bombings fell by 5 percentage points: from 21% to 16%. Almost half of respondents (48%) said they fear the Syrian conflict could evolve into a Third World War. (The Moscow Times, 11.02.16)

Cyber security:

  • FBI director James Comey advised against the Obama administration publicly accusing Russia of hacking political organizations on the grounds that it would make the administration appear unduly partisan too close to the Nov. 8 election, according to officials familiar with the deliberations. (The Washington Post, 11.01.16)
  • The Hillary Clinton campaign on Oct. 31 escalated its efforts to discredit FBI director James Comey's disclosure of a revived email investigation, accusing him of applying a double standard for refusing to publicly discuss investigations of Russian meddling in the presidential election. However, the White House pushed back against accusations from some Democrats that the FBI chief is purposely interfering with the presidential election. (Boston Globe, 11.01.16, Bloomberg, 10.31.16)
  • The White House has opted against authorizing any countermeasures despite high confidence across U.S. spy agencies that Russia alone orchestrated the digital theft of thousands of sensitive documents posted online in recent months by WikiLeaks. "Escalation in the cyber realm can happen quickly," a senior U.S. official said. Those urging restraint say they believe the Russian threat would be diminished after Election Day. U.S. officials said the options under consideration include kicking more suspected Russian intelligence officers out of the U.S., imposing new economic sanctions against Russian entities tied to the alleged hacking and potentially launching cyberattacks on Russian computer systems. (The Washington Post, 11.03.16)
  • WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange denied on Nov. 3 that the Russian government or any other “state parties” were his group’s source for more than 50,000 hacked emails from the files of Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman, John Podesta. (AP, 11.04.16)
  • Russia “is using its whole range of state organs and powers to push its foreign policy abroad in increasingly aggressive ways—involving propaganda, espionage, subversion and cyberattacks,” the UK’s MI5 director general Andrew Parker told the Guardian. Parker’s claims were dismissed by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who said they had no bearing in reality. (Bloomberg, 10.31.16)
  • Hackers believed responsible for breaking into Democratic National Committee computers have exploited previously undisclosed flaws in Microsoft Windows and Adobe's Flash software, Microsoft said Nov. 1. (Wall Street Journal, 11.01.16)

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Energy ministers from Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and other major oil-producing countries have discussed output curbs advocated by OPEC but did not agree to join in. (RFE/RL, 11.01.16)

Bilateral economic ties:

  • The Ford plant in the Russian town of Vsevolozhsk, outside St. Petersburg, plans to halt production from the middle of November to the end of the year for economic reasons. (The Moscow Times, 11.01.16)

Other bilateral issues:

  • U.S. intelligence agencies do not see Russia as capable of using cyberespionage to alter the outcome of the Nov. 8 presidential election, but they have warned that Moscow may continue meddling after the voting has ended to sow doubts about the legitimacy of the result, U.S. officials said. (The Washington Post, 12.03.16)
  • In one of her last acts as secretary of state in early 2013, Hillary Clinton wrote a confidential memo to the White House on how to handle Vladimir Putin. Her bluntly worded advice: Snub him. "Don't appear too eager to work together," Clinton urged President Obama, according to her recollection of the note in her 2014 memoir. "Don't flatter Putin with high-level attention. Decline his invitation for a presidential summit." Her lasting conclusion, as she would acknowledge, was that "strength and resolve were the only language Putin would understand." (The Washington Post, 11.03.16)
  • "It was right to be skeptical that you could translate that [reset] into a durable, strategic partnership," said a U.S. official, who helped guide Russian diplomacy during Republican and Democratic administrations and who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal policy debates freely. "Structurally, we still faced a lot of problems dealing with Russia," including a "fundamental difference in worldview." (The Washington Post, 11.03.16)
  • FBI agents have scrutinized advisers close to Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, looked for financial connections with Russian financial figures, searched for those involved in hacking the computers of Democrats and even chased a lead—which they ultimately came to doubt—about a possible secret channel of email communication from the Trump Organization to a Russian bank. Law enforcement officials say that none of the investigations so far have found any conclusive or direct link between Trump and the Russian government. And even the hacking into Democratic emails, FBI and intelligence officials now believe, was aimed at disrupting the presidential election rather than getting Trump elected. (New York Times, 10.31.16)
  • U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's campaign manager Robby Mook has called on the FBI to disclose what it learned in an inquiry into ties between Russia and Republican candidate Donald Trump. (RFE/RL, 11.02.16)
  • The FBI's investigation of Russian interference in the U.S. presidential election extends to fake documents that suggest Hillary Clinton's campaign might take extreme measures like "staging civil unrest" to ensure she wins. (RFE/RL, 11.04.16)
  • Only 23% of Russians say they have a positive view of the United States, while a majority of Americans—55%—see relations with Moscow as "worsening,” according to a survey released Nov. 4. The U.S. Democrats surveyed favor cooperation with Moscow by 12 percentage points more than their Republican counterparts, 50% of whom opted for cooperation, according to a joint study put out by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Levada Center. (The Washington Post, 11.04.16).
  • U.S. law-enforcement officials are scrutinizing Russian sports agent Andrey Baranov on suspicion of bribery and corruption. (New York Times, 12.03.16)
  • All three judges on a panel of the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals hearing an appeal on behalf of Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout expressed skepticism on Oct. 31 about his claims of unfair prosecution. (AP, 10.31.16)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has granted Russian citizenship to one-time American action movie star Steven Seagal. (The Moscow Times, 11.03.16)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin led ceremonies unveiling a large statue outside the Kremlin to a 10th-century prince of Kiev who is credited with making Orthodox Christianity the official faith of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. The event took place as Russia marks National Unity Day. (AP, 11.04.16)
  • President Vladimir Putin announced Oct. 31 that he supports a proposal to develop federal legislation clarifying the government’s understanding of “the Russian nation.” (The Moscow Times, 10.31.16)
  • Russia's economy will see contraction of 0.6% for 2016, followed by 1.2% growth next year, according to the EBRD. (Bear Market Brief, 11.04.16)
  • Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said the growth rate of Russia's economy will remain around 1 percent until 2020. (The Moscow Times, 10.31.16)
  • Russia’s former Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov, who served until recently as director of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), will take charge of the board of directors at arms producer Almaz-Antey and will preside over the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies. (Vestnik Kavkaza, 11.03.16)
  • Reactor No. 4 of the Beloyarsk nuclear power plant in the Sverdlovsk region of Russia has started commercial operation. The reactor is a powerful sodium-cooled fast-breeder and its operation marks a step by Russia toward developing a closed nuclear fuel cycle. (Bellona. 11.02.16)
  • Steel tycoon Alexey Mordashov’s fortune rose to $15.7 billion, making him Russia’s richest person, beating out nickel magnate Vladimir Potanin. (Bloomberg, 11.01.16)
  • Russia’s total fertility rate, defined as the number of children per woman, has rebounded to 1.8, above the level of most European countries. The improvement in the mortality rate has been more striking still. Life expectancy has risen past its communist-era peak, hitting a record 70.9 in 2014. Further improvement is likely: Data for the first quarter of 2016 point to a 5% fall in mortality in the course of just 12 months.(Financial Times, 10.31.16)
  • A Russian health official in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg has retracted her earlier statement that the HIV infection rate there has reached epidemic levels. (RFE/RL, 11.02.16)
  • Authorities abruptly locked out staff of the Russian branch of Amnesty International from their Moscow office on Nov. 2, amid concerns about widening crackdowns on human rights groups. A statement from Moscow's city administration said the watchdog had failed to pay rent on time—an allegation Amnesty officials denied. The following day Mikhail Fedotov, head of the Russian Human Rights Council, said Amnesty staff could return to the office. (RFE/RL, 11.04.16, The Washington Post, 11.03.16)
  • The long-serving head of Russia's Constitutional Court has warned of an "increasing danger of lawlessness" and called for the development of a "postsecular" legal framework that would, among other things, recognize the "natural biological differences" of men and women. (RFE/RL, 11.02.16)

Defense and aerospace:

  • Russia appears to have conducted the first test of the Barguzin rail-mobile missile in Plesetsk sometime in the last week. (RussianForces.org, 11.03.16)
  • The eighth Borei-class nuclear-powered submarine will be laid down at the Sevmash shipyard in Russia’s northern town of Severodvinsk on Dec. 23; the submarine will be named Knyaz (Prince) Pozharsky. (TASS, 11.02.16)
  • Overall spending on national defense in Russia’s federal budget for 2017 is envisaged at 2.84 trillion rubles ($45.15 billion), or 3.3% of GDP. In 2018 Russian defense spending will amount to 3% of GDP, while in 2019 it will drop to 2.8%. As reported earlier, these figures mark a drop in defense spending of about 30%. (RBTH, 11.01.16)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • Russia’s National Anti-Terrorist Committee says four suspected militants have been killed in the restive North Caucasus region of Dagestan. The men were shot dead late Nov. 3 after they allegedly fired on law-enforcement officers who tried to stop their vehicle in the center of the town of Khasavyurt. (AP, 11.04.16)
  • Sergei Kossiyev, the head of Penal Colony No. 7 in Russia's northern Karelia region, has been temporarily suspended due to his possible involvement in the beating of inmate and civil activist Ildar Dadin. (The Moscow Times, 11.03.16)
  • The trial of the director of Moscow's Ukrainian Literature Library kicked off in the Russian capital on Nov. 2. Natalya Sharina pleaded not guilty to charges of extremism and embezzlement. (RFE/RL, 11.02.16)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

General developments and relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • Russian senate speaker Valentina Matviyenko has said Moscow isn’t going to give up any disputed Pacific islands to Japan. Matviyenko was in Japan to lay the groundwork for President Vladimir Putin’s upcoming visit. The two countries’ economy ministers agreed Nov. 3 to work on roughly 30 economic cooperation measures ahead of next month’s summit. (AP, 11.01.16, Nikkei, 11.04.16)
  • The head of the Turkish Armed Forces General Staff, Gen. Hulusi Akar, visited Moscow on Nov. 1 for talks with his Russian counterpart, Gen. Valery Gerasimov. (RFE/RL, 11.01.16)
  • Executives of state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China Ltd. unveiled plans Nov. 2 to make a twin-aisle jet that can fly as far as 12,000 km—roughly the distance between Beijing and New York. The company, known as Comac, is forming a joint venture with Russia’s United Aircraft Corp. to research and manufacture the aircraft. (Bloomberg, 11.02.16)
  • Moscow has quietly resumed sales of advanced arms technology to Beijing in a move that signals geopolitics and economics are trumping concerns about Chinese cloning of Russian weapons. Not only is Russia now willing to let the Chinese operate—and possibly clone—the Su-35, but it's also selling cutting-edge air defense systems like the S-400.Though China over the past five years has imported almost 60% of its foreign-bought hardware from Russia, only 11% of the equipment exported by Moscow in the same period went to China.(The Moscow Times, 11.01.16, Financial Times, 11.03.16)
  • German authorities have conducted raids in three states against asylum seekers, primarily from Chechnya, suspected of having formed a criminal organization. (AP, 11.02.16)

Ukraine:

  • A new opinion poll in Ukraine showed that 43% of respondents would vote "yes" in a referendum on Ukraine's accession to NATO, up from 39% in a June poll. Some 29% said they were against Kiev joining the military alliance. The survey also showed that 57% of Ukrainians describe themselves as having either "cold" or "very cold" feelings toward Russia. (RFE/RL, 11.01.16)
  • Millions of dollars in cash, valuable artworks, luxury watches and giant mansions—that’s just a taste of the riches Ukrainian officials have revealed in asset declarations that international lenders have demanded to help stamp out decades of post-Soviet corruption. Perceived excesses in lawmakers' lifestyles—ill-gotten or not—have drawn condemnation in a country where government statistics put the average household monthly income at around $200. State corruption is the second-top concern for Ukrainians after the two-year Russian-backed insurgency in the nation’s east, a Sept. 28-Oct. 7 poll showed Oct. 31. Embarrassed members of Ukraine's parliament have given up a pay raise to try to defuse public anger after the revelations. (Bloomberg, 10.31.16, RFE/RL, 10.31.16, Kyiv Post/Financial Times, 11.02.16)
  • The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects the Ukrainian economy to grow in the current year by 1.5% and the growth will accelerate to 2% next year. (Interfax, 11.03.16)
  • Ukraine’s GDP per capita was $2,115 last year, Europe’s second-lowest after Moldova, World Bank data show. The indicator in neighboring Poland, which was almost level with Ukraine in 1990 before the Soviet collapse, was $12,500. (Bloomberg, 10.31.16)
  • Naftogaz hasn’t bought any Russian gas since November 2015, with Gazprom supplying 18% of its consumption that year, according to Ukrainian data. (Bloomberg, 11.03.16)
  • Ukrainian hackers leaked another cache of emails allegedly from the account of former Russian presidential aide Vladislav Surkov on Nov. 3, according to media reports. In one correspondence, Surkov and a Russian lawmaker allegedly discuss fomenting unrest in the Ukrainian city of Kharkov. (The Moscow Times, 11.03.16)
  • Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s party had just 10% backing, lower than the 13% support for ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s party, according to a survey of 2,400 people for the Canadian International Republican Institute. (Bloomberg, 10.31.16)
  • Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte on Oct. 31 struck a tentative deal with Dutch opposition lawmakers that could keep afloat a key trade pact between the European Union and Ukraine. (Wall Street Journal, 10.31.16)
  • State-owned nuclear companies Nucleoelétrica Argentina SA and Energoatom of Ukraine have signed a memorandum of understanding aiming to promote bilateral nuclear power development efforts. (World Nuclear News, 10.31.16)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • The political party of Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambaev has built a new majority coalition, less than two weeks after the previous ruling coalition collapsed. (RFE/RL, 11.03.16)
  • Russia has shipped the reactor pressure vessel for the second unit of a nuclear power plant under construction in Belarus. The equipment for the VVER-1200 unit weighs more than 330 tons, is 13 meters high and has a 4.5 meter diameter. (World Nuclear News, 11.01.6)
  • Representatives of Armenia’s Energaimpex Company and the National Iranian Gas Export Company signed a document authorizing the purchase of more Iranian natural gas. Armenia currently imports up to 500 million cubic meters of Iranian gas annually through a pipeline built in 2008. By comparison, Russian gas supplies to the South Caucasus country total around 2 billion cubic meters. (RFE/RL, 11.03.16)
  • A U.S. judge has again postponed a deadline for federal authorities to agree with Uzbekistan over what to do with hundreds of millions of dollars linked to the daughter of the Central Asian country's late president. (RFE/RL, 11.03.16)
  • Traian Basescu, former president of Romania, became a Moldovan citizen on Nov. 3 and said he may get politically involved there. (RFE/RL, 11.04.16)

News items for this digest curated by Simon Saradzhyan, director of the Russia Matters Project.