5 Things to Know

1. Russia gained more territory in October, including 160+ square miles in the Donetsk region, than in any month since July 2022, according to NYT’s analysis of ISW maps. According to estimates, which ISW itself shared with RM, the Russian armed forces have made a net gain of 206 square miles between Sept. 30, 2024, and Oct. 31, 2024. Just this week, Russian gains acknowledged by Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT project included the seizures of Levadne, Hirnyk, Bohoyavlenka, Novoukrainka, Selydove, Vyshneve, and Zoryane. Capture of Selydove can give the Russian army a tactical exit to Pokrovsk, which is a key logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in the Donbas, according to Ukrainian Gen. Dmytro Marchenko. “This is very bad for us,” he said, according to the Daily Telegraph. “I won’t be revealing a military secret if I say that our front has crumbled,” said the general. While Ukrainian forces have so far managed to hold on to Pokrovsk, Russia is slicing its way through Ukrainian defenses elsewhere, according to an Oct. 29 story in the Economist. Russia cannot fight forever, but the worry is that, on current trends, Ukraine’s breaking point will come first, according to this U.K. newspaper. Those involved in the guts of planning in the Pentagon say the narrow focus is on preventing defeat. “At this point we are thinking more and more about how Ukraine can survive,” a person involved in that planning told the Economist. Interestingly, the headline on this story, which The Economist ran on Oct. 29 and which RM staff accessed on that day and wrote about in a post on X, said "Ukraine is now struggling to survive, not to win.”¹ On Oct. 31, however, that story’s headline already read "Ukraine is now struggling to cling on, not to win."*   
2. Volodymyr Zelenskyy told journalists this week that the Ukrainian forces have received only 10% of a $61 billion U.S. aid package pledged in April, blaming delays on bureaucracy and logistics. He has repeatedly asked the U.S., so far without success, to provide long-range weapons so that Ukraine can strike military targets in Russia, per his victory plan, according to Bloomberg. In one part of his victory plan, Zelenskyy proposed a “nonnuclear deterrence package,” in which Ukraine would get Tomahawk missiles, a totally unfeasible request, a senior U.S. official told NYT.Ukrainian Gen. Dmytro Marchenko said that Zelenskyy’s victory plan was too heavily focused on pleading with Western allies for more support. “This plan lacks any points addressing Ukraine or our needs,” Marchenko said of Zelenskyy’s plan, according to the Daily Telegraph. Referring to Western supplies of arms to Ukraine, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin wrote in FA, “There is no silver bullet. No single capability will turn the tide. No one system will end Putin’s assault. What matters is the combined effects of Ukraine’s military capabilities—and staying focused on what works.”   
3. More than two-thirds of Ukrainians believe it’s time to start peace talks with Russia, according to a recent survey by the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center cited by Bloomberg. This represents an increase of 14 percentage points on the same period last year. As for Russians’ attitudes toward peace, a majority of them support ending hostilities and launching peace negotiations, according to the results of a recent poll by the Levada Center. However, when asked by Levada if Russia should make concessions in such negotiations, a vast majority answered in the negative.
4. In a recent interview, Zelenskyy reiterated that he was still against ceding territory, but he also talked about diplomatic steps on the protection of energy infrastructure and safe shipping in the Black Sea. He also hinted at one approach that might allow Ukraine to save face if it does not reclaim all the land Russia has captured, NYT reported. “No one will legally recognize the occupied territories as belonging to other states,” he said. Zelenskyy may also strive to show Ukrainians that he has done all he can, prepare them for the possibility that Ukraine might have to make a deal and give Ukrainians a convenient scapegoat: the West, according to NYT. Meanwhile, some in Moscow hope Vladimir Putin will be ready to open peace talks once Russian troops reach the administrative border of the Donetsk region, Sergei Markov, a political consultant close to the Kremlin, told Bloomberg. So far, however, Putin would not even discuss the mutual non-targeting of energy infrastructure with Ukraine, to say less of a peace deal, until the Ukrainian army loses control of over 600 square kilometers of Russian land in the Kursk region, according to a Kremlin insider. Ukraine needs a deal on non-targeting of energy infrastructure more than Russia does, given Russia’s vast energy resources and that some 60% of Ukraine's power generation has been knocked out by Russian attacks.
5. Multiplemedia outlets, citing claims by Western and Ukrainian officials, continued to report that thousands of North Korean troops are possibly preparing to enter the fighting in Russia’s western Kursk region. Should DPRK soldiers—who are commanded by three generals and about 500 officers—cross into Ukraine, the Ukrainian military should strike them, according to Joe Biden. Biden’s defense chief Lloyd Austin put the total number of DPRK soldiers in Russia at 10,000, while his top diplomat Anthony Blinken said they have been trained by Russian instructors on artillery, drones and trench-clearing for combat. The Biden administration has also reportedly approached Chinese diplomats in hopes that Beijing will convince Pyongyang to limit or halt the deployment even though the Chinese Foreign Ministry has already stated that Russia and North Korea have the right to decide how to develop bilateral relations as they please. Meanwhile, the Russian Foreign Minister hosted his North Korean counterpart Choe Son Hui in Moscow, who vowed that “we will always stand firmly by our Russian comrades until victory day.”   

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Oct. 30 that Ukrainian incursion forces have never had any intention of seizing control of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, though he insisted that his troops could manage it. “We could [have done it], but we never wanted it. Because we understand what it [would mean] — that we will be the same as Russia. We are not occupying their critical infrastructure like this did with the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Station,” Zelenskyy said. (Meduza, 10.31.24)
• At Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), repairs are being conducted in one of its six reactors after a small water leakage was detected from an impulse line – essentially a small pipe – connected to the unit’s primary circuit, with the work expected to be completed later this week, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said. (IAEA, 10.31.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• On Oct. 25, one Ukrainian and two American officials said that several thousand North Korean soldiers have arrived in Russia’s western Kursk region. Whatever their role, the officials said, any significant contingent of North Korean troops will allow Russia to keep more of its forces in eastern Ukraine, where they can stay focused on seizing as much Ukrainian territory as possible. (NYT, 10.25.24)
• On Oct. 25, North Korean troops were reported to have appeared on-site alongside Russian soldiers at a military complex in Russia's far east, potentially preparing for deployment in the war against Ukraine. The videos show dozens of what appear to be North Korean men at Sergeevka military training ground near Vladivostok. (WP, 10.25.24)
• On Oct. 28, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that North Korean troops were sent to Russia's embroiled Kursk region, decrying the deployment as a sign of Russian President Vladimir Putin's "growing desperation." Rutte also called it a “significant escalation” of Pyongyang’s involvement in the war. (MT/AFP, 10.28.24, Bloomberg, 10.28.24)
• On Oct. 29, U.S. President Joe Biden said Ukraine should strike North Korean troops if they enter the country to fight alongside Russia. Asked if he was concerned about North Korean troops that are already inside Russia, Biden said, “I am concerned about it, yes.” A reporter then asked if Ukraine should strike back, and Biden responded, “If they go into Ukraine, yes.” Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, said the U.S. currently doesn’t have information to corroborate some news reports that North Korean troops are already in Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 10.29.24)
• On Oct. 29, senior Ukrainian intelligence officials told FT that about 3,000 North Korean troops have been secretly transported in civilian trucks from Russia’s far east to its western Kursk region. One official said that only a few hundred of those 3,000 were special forces, the others being regular troops. They were housed on Oct. 28 in barracks about 50km from the Ukrainian border. Zelenskyy Oct. 29 said he had “shared data with his South Korean counterpart on the North Korean deployment,” which he said was “expected to increase to approximately 12,000.” Zelenskyy held a phone conversation with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on the issue. The leaders agreed to exchange intelligence data and intensify contacts “at all levels.” (FT, 10.29.24, Bloomberg, 10.29.24)
• On Oct. 29, South Korea warned that North Korean troops and generals dispatched to Russia to aid Moscow’s war on Ukraine are possibly moving to the frontline. (Bloomberg, 10.29.24)
• On Oct. 30, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called the deployment of North Korean troops by Russia to aid its war against Ukraine a "dangerous and destabilizing escalation" and said it could lengthen the conflict. Speaking during a news conference at the Pentagon alongside his South Korean counterpart Kim Yong-hyu, Austin said some 10,000 North Korean forces were already deployed to eastern Russia. The risk of Russia helping North Korea's weapons technology—including ICBMs—also came up during the conference. Some of the troops are moving to the Kursk region wearing Russian uniforms and carrying Russian equipment. Other North Korean units have already arrived in the Kursk region. The presence of North Korean troops could “encourage others to take action, different kinds of action” in support of Ukraine, Austin said. He declined to speculate on what that might entail. (RFE/RL, 10.30.24, Bloomberg, 10.30.24, WSJ, 10.31.24)
• On Oct. 31, U.S. Defense Secretary Austin was quoted as saying: "We now assess that North Korea has sent around 10,000 of its soldiers to train in eastern Russia.” "Our most recent information indicates that about 8,000 of those [North Korean] soldiers are now in the Kursk Oblast. Now, we've not yet seen these soldiers deploy into combat against Ukraine's forces, but we expect that these North Korean soldiers will join the fight against Ukraine in the coming days,” he said. Austin said Russian forces have trained the North Korean soldiers in artillery operations, unmanned aerial vehicle operations and basic infantry tactics to include trench clearing. (Pentagon, 10.31.24)
• On Oct. 31, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Russia has been training the North Korean troops on artillery, drones and basic infantry operation, including trench-clearing, "indicating they fully intend to use these forces in frontline operations.” "One of the reasons that Russia is turning to these North Korean troops is that it's desperate. [Russian President Vladimir] Putin has been throwing more and more Russians into a meat grinder of his own making in Ukraine," Blinken said. (RFE/RL, 10.31.24)
• On Nov. 1, North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui said Pyongyang will stand by Russia until "victory" in Ukraine as Washington predicted North Korean troops in Russia's Kursk region will enter the fight against Kyiv in the coming days. At a meeting with Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov after arriving in Moscow on Nov. 1, Choe hailed the "very close ties" between the armed and special services of the two countries, and "we will always stand firmly by our Russian comrades until victory day." During the meeting, neither of the two foreign ministers mentioned Western reports about North Korean troop deployments in Russia. (MT/AFP, 11.01.24, RFE/RL, 11.01.24)
• On Nov. 1, South Korea’s conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol was reported to be weighing directly providing arms to Ukraine, a potentially consequential shift in the conflict, in response to North Korea’s deployment of troops to the Russian front line. (FT, 11.01.24)
• On Nov. 1, the Biden administration was reported to be turning to an unlikely interlocutor as North Korean troops move into combat position to help Russia in its war in Ukraine. To convey threats to North Korea, U.S. officials are talking to China. And American officials say they hope the conversations further stoke any suspicions China might feel about the troop deployment. (NYT, 11.01.24)
• Russia and North Korea, as two sovereign countries, have the right to decide how to develop bilateral relations as they please, stated Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Lin Jian at a briefing, commenting on the alleged presence of North Korean troops in Russia. (TASS, 11.01.24)
• Three generals and about 500 officers from the DPRK have arrived in Russia, said Ukraine's Permanent Representative to the U.N. Serhiy Kyslytsya during a speech at the organization's Security Council. He also named the North Korean generals. These are the head of the intelligence department Lee Chang Ho, the head of the main operational department Shin Geum Chol and the deputy chief of the General Staff for special operations Kim Yun Bok. (Istories, 10.31.24)
• North Korea and Russia signed an agreement Oct. 30 to cooperate in the sphere of digital communications — the latest development in Russian-North Korean cooperation likely aimed at enhancing the Kremlin's digital authoritarianism tools to increase domestic repressions. (ISW, 10.31.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Israel's airstrikes on Iran didn't just destroy critical Iranian military infrastructure. They also battered the reputation of Russian military equipment. Iran's Russian-made air-defense equipment stopped few if any of the missiles that Israel launched from 100 jet fighters, according to U.S. and Israeli officials. Among Iran's losses in the strikes were its three Russian S-300 air-defense systems. Israel earlier this year hit Iran's only other S-300. (WSJ, 10.28.24)
• Russia and Iran will sign a strategic partnership agreement “in the near future,” Lavrov said Oct. 31, as political and military ties between the two countries deepen. “The treaty is being prepared for signing in the near future,” Lavrov said at a Eurasian security summit in Belarus. “It will affirm both parties’ commitment to closer defense cooperation and collaboration for regional and global peace and security,” Lavrov added. (MT/AFP, 10.31.24)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Ukraine is investigating reports that Russian soldiers shot at civilians in the embattled frontline town of Selydove, prosecutors said Oct. 27. A video posted on Telegram by "Ghost of Khortytsia," a Ukrainian army unit, purported to show Russian forces opening fire on a civilian vehicle. (MT/AFP, 10.27.24)
• Russian forces have escalated indiscriminate drone attacks against civilians in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, killing and maiming scores of people in what locals have described as a "human safari." (WP, 11.01.24)
• A drone flying over Korenevo village, in the Kursk region of Russia that Ukraine invaded in August, recorded a grisly scene: at least seven bodies lying on the road, most of them in civilian clothes. Casualties represent the clearest known example of the toll on Russian civilians of Ukraine's seizure of territory in Kursk. They also highlight the unexpected position Ukraine is in—an invading and occupying force for the first time in two and a half years of war. (NYT, 10.28.24)
• The Finnish Prosecutor’s Office has formally charged Russian neo-Nazi and Rusich Group paramilitary unit commander Yan “Slavyan” Petrovsky with five war crimes allegedly committed in the fall of 2014 while fighting alongside Russian proxy forces in Donetsk and Luhansk. Finnish officials say Petrovsky (legal name: Voislav Torden) and his comrades were involved in the killing of 22 Ukrainian soldiers and wounding of another four. (Meduza, 10.31.24)
• Russian forces are holding about 22,000 Ukrainians, roughly 8,000 of them prisoners of war and the rest civilians, many of them on dubious charges, according to human rights organizations and Ukrainian officials. (NYT, 10.31.24)
• Zelenskyy arrived in Iceland to attend the fourth Ukraine-Northern Europe summit and hold bilateral negotiations with the prime ministers of Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Finland and Sweden. Iceland also allocated almost 2 million euros ($2.1 million) to a Czech initiative to purchase artillery shells for Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 10.28.24) Needs update.
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

According to estimates produced by the Institute for the Study of War and shared with RM on Nov. 1, 2024, the Russian armed forces have made the following net territorial gains and one loss:

• Russia gained more territory in October (160+ square miles in the Donetsk region alone) than any month since July 2024, according to NYT. Ultimately, experts say, these gains, among the swiftest of the war, will help the Russian army secure its flanks before launching an assault on the city of Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in the Donbas, according to NYT. Half of Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine so far this year were made in the past three months alone, according to Pasi Paroinen, a military expert with the Finland-based Black Bird Group. (NYT, 10.31.24) This NYT article contains a number of infographics, some based on data provided by the Institute for the Study of War, that help visualize Russia’s recent gains.
• Ukrainian forces have managed to hold on to Pokrovsk, but elsewhere along the front, Russia is slicing its way through Ukrainian defenses, according to the Economist’s Oct. 29 story. In private, Pentagon officials, Western officials and many Ukrainian commanders are increasingly concerned about the direction of the war and Ukraine’s ability to hold back Russian advances over the next six months, according to the story. The problem is not so much the loss of territory as the steady erosion in the size and quality of Ukraine’s forces. Russia cannot fight forever, but the worry among America, European and Ukrainian officials is that, on current trends, Ukraine’s breaking point will come first, The Economist reported. Those involved in the guts of planning in the Pentagon say the narrow focus is on preventing defeat. “At this point we are thinking more and more about how Ukraine can survive,” says a person involved in that planning. (The Economist, 10.29.24) 
• This week, Ukrainian Gen. Dmytro Marchenko blamed Ukrainian weakness along the frontline on a shortage of ammunition, problems with military recruitment and poor leadership, and also said that Zelenskyy’s victory plan was too heavily focused on pleading with Western allies for more support. “This plan lacks any points addressing Ukraine or our needs,” Marchenko said of Zelenskyy’s plan. “I won’t be revealing a military secret if I say that our front has crumbled,” he told a former Ukrainian MP in an interview posted on YouTube. Ukraine’s military has not commented on Russia’s reported capture of Selydove, but Marchenko conceded that Russian soldiers had entered the town. “I think that in the near future they will encircle it and capture it completely, which will give them a tactical exit to Pokrovsk. This is very bad for us,” he said. Marchenko rose to prominence in 2022 as the commander of Ukrainian forces who defended Mykolaiv and then helped to liberate the city of Kherson. (Daily Telegraph, 10.30.24)
• While Russian armed forces captured 148.6 km² of Ukrainian land in the entirety of 2023, they captured 1,558.7 km² in August-September 2024, according to uawarinfographics. (RM, 10.30.24)
  • Russia’s army is gaining speed in its advance in eastern Ukraine, seizing more land last week than at any point this year, increasing pressure on Kyiv’s U.S. and European allies to bolster its defenses. The gain of more than 200 square kilometers (77 square miles) adds to territory taken in a grinding summer offensive that’s involved huge losses of Russian troops and equipment. (Bloomberg, 11.01.24)
  • The rate of Russian advances in Ukraine has increased in recent weeks but remains slow and consistent with positional warfare rather than with rapid mechanized maneuver. (ISW, 10.30.24)
• Russia may take full control of Ukraine’s east by next summer if the current pace of advance is maintained, claimed Sergei Markov, a political consultant close to the Kremlin. Some in Moscow hope Putin will be ready to open peace talks once Russian troops reach the administrative border of the Donetsk region, he said. There’s no sign so far that Ukrainian defenses are breaking down, according to Evgeny Buzhinsky, a former top Russian Defense Ministry official. (Bloomberg, 11.01.24)
• On Oct. 26, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its Telegram channel that Russia occupied Levadne and advanced near Shakhtarske, Novoukrainka, Bohoyavlenka, Novodarivka, Stelmakhivka, Hirnyk and Oleksandropol. (DeepState’s map accessed on 11.01.24)
• On Oct. 26, a Russian drone strike killed a teenager in Kyiv. Also, on Oct. 26, it was reported that three civilians were killed and seven wounded, including a child, in Russian shelling in Ukraine's southern Kherson region. Russian missile strikes also killed four people including a child in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, Ukrainian officials said. (MT/AFP, 10.26.24, RFE/RL, 10.26.24. Bloomberg, 10.26.24)
• On Oct. 27, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its Telegram channel that the enemy occupied Hirnyk and advanced in Selydove, Bohoyavlivka, Novoukrainka, near Shakhtarske and Novooleksiyivka. (DeepState’s map accessed on 11.01.24)
• On Oct. 27, Russia said it shot down 51 Ukrainian drones from above several regions. Eighteen were intercepted in the Tambov region, about 400 kilometers (250 miles) from the Ukrainian border and 16 in the area of the border town Belgorod. (MT/AFP, 10.27.24)
• On Oct. 27, Russia said is military had advanced further in east Ukraine, capturing a frontline village of Izmailivka. The village lies eight kilometers (five miles) north of the key industrial hub of Kurakhove. (MT/AFP, 10.27.24)
• On Oct. 28, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its Telegram channel that Russia advanced in Novoselidivka, Bohoyavlennia, Katerynivka and Shakhtarske. (DeepState’s map accessed on 11.01.24)
• On Oct. 28, Russia’s troops were reported to have captured Selydove, the last town before Pokrovsk, which is a key logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk Region. Footage appeared showing Russian soldiers at the office of the local city council, said the DeepState mapping service. On Oct. 28, Ukrainian military analysts said Russian troops were within 7km of Pokrovsk. The fall of Pokrovsk could jeopardize Ukraine’s defensive line and pave the way for Russia to occupy the entirety of the Donetsk region, one of Putin’s goals. That in turn would pose new threats to the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk region to the west. Russian forces captured the town of Hirnyk, which is located south of Pokrovsk, according to DeepState. (Bloomberg, 10.28.24. FT, 10.28.24)
• On Oct. 28, Russia’s FSB said its agents killed four “saboteurs” who tried to cross into the western Bryansk region from Ukraine. An FSB video shared by state-run news agencies showed a Canadian flag and a Polish-language prayer book next to the body of one of the alleged saboteurs. Law enforcement authorities claimed a tattoo of angel wings on the body’s arm indicated that he was a member of the United States Army Rangers. It was not possible to independently verify the FSB’s claims. (MT/AFP, 10.28.24)
• On Oct. 28, a Ukrainian drone attack in southwestern Russia’s Kursk region killed two people, regional authorities said. (MT/AFP, 10.28.24)
• On Oct. 28, Voronezh region Gov. Alexander Gusev said one Ukrainian drone attack took place in the region’s Anninsky District, where two workers were injured in a fire that broke out at an industrial facility. A second strike happened in the Novokhopyorsky District, with no injuries reported. (MT/AFP, 10.28.24)
• On Oct. 29, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its Telegram channel that Russia occupied Bohoyavlenka and Novoukrainka, and advanced in Selydove and Yasna Polyana. (DeepState’s map accessed on 11.01.24)
• On Oct. 29, for the first time since Moscow launched its full-scale of invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the territory of Chechnya has been targeted by drone attacks. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov wrote that drones had attacked the building of the so-called "Spetsnaz (Special Forces) University" named after Putin in the Chechen city of Gudermes. (RFE/RL, 10.29.24)
• On Oct. 30, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its Telegram channel that Russia occupied Selydove, Vyshneve, Zoryane, and advanced near Novoukrainka, Novodmytrivka and Kurakhivka. (DeepState’s map accessed on 11.01.24)
• On Oct. 30, Russia’s military were reported to have claimed its air defense forces shot down nearly two dozen Ukrainian drones across six Russian regions overnight, with some of the downings causing minor property damage. (MT/AFP, 10.30.24)
• On Oct. 30, Russia's military said that its forces captured the village of Kruhliakivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. (MT/AFP, 10.30.24)
• On Oct. 30, two children were reported to have been among three killed in a Russian airstrike on an apartment building in the northeastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, with dozens more injured, the local governor said Oct. 31. A guided aerial bomb — a powerful weapon used widely by Russia — hit a building in the city. (AFP, 10.31.24)
  • Cities in eastern and southern Ukraine are increasingly being hit by Russian glide bombs, converted gravity bombs that can be guided to targets, often landing without detection, residents and officials say. (NYT, 10.28.24)
• On Oct. 31, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its Telegram channel that Russia advanced near Novoukrainka, Bohoyavlenka, Maksymilianivka, Pobeda, Kostiantynivka and in Novodmytrivka. (DeepState’s map accessed on 11.01.24)
• On Oct. 31, Russian forces were reported to have recently advanced near Kupyansk, Svatove, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove and Vuhledar, and Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kurakhove. (ISW, 10.31.24)

• On Oct. 31, U.S. Defense Secretary Austin was quoted as saying: "Ukrainian forces have caused more than 1,200 Russian casualties per day, more than at any other time during Putin's war.” (Pentagon, 10.31.24)

• On Nov. 1, at least two Ukrainians were killed and 18 wounded in Russian shelling and drone strikes as Zelenskyy thanked his embattled people for their solidarity in the face of Moscow's relentless pummeling of civilian areas at the onset of the third winter of war devastating their country. (RFE/RL, 11.01.24)
• On Nov. 1, two young men were reported to have been killed when drones dropped explosives on the Trinity Convent in the village of Durovo-Bobrik, in the southwestern Kursk region of Russia. (MT/AFP, 11.01.24)
• On Nov. 1, Russia’s military said that its air defense systems destroyed 83 Ukrainian drones over multiple Russian regions and annexed Crimea overnight, with at least one of the drones crashing into an oil depot and sparking a fire. (MT/AFP, 11.01.24)
• Several times over the past three months, swarms of as many as 150 Ukrainian drones flew hundreds of miles into Russia, slamming into missile storage facilities, strategic fuel reservoirs, military airfields and defense plants. Once considered exceptional, these deep strikes now barely register in the news. Yet, Ukrainian officials and some of their Western backers increasingly see the pain that long-range attacks inflict as a game-changer that could force Putin into negotiating an acceptable peace. (WSJ, 10.26.24)
• Ukraine intends to mobilize more than 160,000 people under its conscription plan, National Security & Defense Council Secretary Oleksandr Lytvynenko told lawmakers Oct. 29. More than 1 million have already been drafted, he said. (Bloomberg, 11.01.24)
• Ukraine is widening its dragnet in the search for troops to shore up its creaking front lines, conducting spot checks of men at upscale venues including a concert and a wine store in Kyiv and a street of hip eateries in Odesa. The stepped-up efforts show the difficulties Ukraine faces in raising new soldiers to backfill front-line losses as the war approaches the three-year mark. (WSJ, 10.28.24)
• Former Ukrainian Navy Commander Adm. Igor Voronchenko was dismissed from the post of Chief Inspector of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. The commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lt. Gen. Yuriy Sodol, was dismissed from military service based on the conclusion of the Military Medical Commission. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.01.24)
• "While there have been significant, significant losses in the ground domain, in the rest of the military structure of Russia, there remains a huge amount of capability — both conventional and nuclear — and so it's necessary to keep that in mind," Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the commander of U.S. European Command, said during a video interview with the Atlantic Council, which was released Oct. 22. "The military force — the ground force — inside Ukraine today is significantly larger than the ground force that was there in the beginning of the war," Cavoli said, "so the Russian army has actually grown during this period." (Business Insider, 10.23.24)
  • On Oct. 31, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrskyi spoke with Cavoli about the heavy fighting at the front. The parties discussed strengthening support for Ukraine and responding to Russia's involvement of the DPRK military. (UNN, 10.31.24)
• Russia now suffers around 1,200 casualties in Ukraine every day, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Oct. 28. (Bloomberg, 10.27.24)
• Russia’s general staff and defense ministry have put “heavy pressure” on the Kremlin to mobilize more men, says an European official. (The Economist, 10.29.24.)
• The Krasnodar regional court in Russia's southwest has sentenced Serhiy Denysenko, a Ukrainian-Russian dual citizen, to 25 years in prison for killing the former commander of a Russian submarine implicated in the shelling of Ukrainian territories in 2022. (RFE/RL, 10.29.24)

Military aid to Ukraine:

• Zelenskyy told journalists Oct. 29 that his forces have received only 10% of a $61 billion U.S. aid package pledged in April, blaming delays on bureaucracy and logistics. He has repeatedly asked the U.S., so far without success, to provide long-range weapons so Ukraine can strike military targets in Russia. (Bloomberg, 11.01.24)
• In one part of his victory plan, Zelenskyy proposed a “nonnuclear deterrence package” in which Ukraine would get Tomahawk missiles, a totally unfeasible request, a senior U.S. official said. A Tomahawk has a range of 1,500 miles. Ukraine also hadn’t made a convincing case to Washington on how it would use the long-range weapons, the U.S. officials said. The target list inside Russia far exceeded the number of missiles that the United States or any other ally could supply without jeopardizing missiles earmarked for potential problems in the Middle East and Asia, they added. Four U.S. officials told The New York Times recently that Zelenskyy was stunned that President Biden didn’t grant him permission to use U.S. long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia when they met in Washington in September. (NYT, 10.29.24)
  • Zelenskyy expressed annoyance that details of requests he made to the White House for more U.S. long-range missiles were leaked to the media. Reports about Ukraine requesting “a lot of missiles, like Tomahawks” appeared around the time he sought to persuade partners to support Ukraine’s “victory plan,” Zelenskyy said. “It was confidential information between Ukraine and the White House,” Zelenskyy said. “So it means between partners there are no confidential things.” (Bloomberg, 10.30.24)
  • Waning Western support, losses along the eastern front and in the Kursk region of Russia, and a looming U.S. election that could mean a drastically different U.S. policy toward Ukraine. (NYT, 10.29.24)
• Advisor to the head of the Ukrainian President's Office Mykhailo Podolyak said that the meeting in the Rammstein format could still take place before the end of October. (RBC.ua, 10.31.24)
• U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin wrote: “There is no silver bullet. No single capability will turn the tide. No one system will end Putin’s assault. What matters is the combined effects of Ukraine’s military capabilities—and staying focused on what works.” (FA, 11.01.24.)
• Austin wrote: “Ukraine Defense Contact Group... has met 24 times now, and its members have provided more than $51 billion in direct security assistance to Ukraine. I’m proud that the United States is doing our part, committing more than $58 billion in security assistance to Ukraine and delivering two Patriot batteries, other air defense systems, 24 HIMARS rocket systems, thousands of armored vehicles, and millions of rounds of artillery.” (FA, 11.01.24)

  • On Oct. 31, Austin was quoted as saying that the U.S. will announce additional security assistance for Ukraine in the coming days. (Pentagon, 10.31.24)

• Norway's government has announced it will give fellow NATO member Romania $127 million to partially cover the cost of a new Patriot missile-defense system to replace the one donated by Bucharest to Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 10.30.24)
• Croatia now aims to supply Ukraine with 30 M-84 tanks and 30 M-80 infantry fighting vehicles in exchange for as many as 50 new Leopard 2A8 tanks from Germany. (Bloomberg, 10.29.24)
• Above a battlefield littered with failed American drones, California startup Shield AI notched an important victory in Ukraine. The company in August became a rare Western supplier to demonstrate it can withstand the brutal electronic warfare that is downing drones across Ukraine. The country, which has preferred locally made drones, has now requested hundreds of Shield AI systems. (WSJ, 10.31.24)
• A British Army commander who trained Ukrainian soldiers also said that Ukrainian troops and their commanders had struggled to adapt to NATO tactics and weapons. “Despite them now receiving Western NATO weapon systems and ammunition, they have continued to refuse to adapt to Western tactics,” he told The Telegraph. (Daily Telegraph, 10.30.24)
• Lavrov criticized Turkey for supplying weapons to Ukraine in an interview with the Hurriyet newspaper, published Nov. 1. (Meduza, 11.01.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The U.S. has blacklisted roughly 400 companies and individuals from China, India and other countries, in the latest effort to limit Russia’s ability to obtain critical materials needed to continue its war in Ukraine. In the latest wave of designations on Oct. 30, the U.S. Treasury added more than 270 individuals and companies to its sanctions list, while the Department of State listed another 120. A small number of the designations directly relate to the import of U.S.-made goods. According to its listing, Ace Electronic, a Chinese company, exported American-made radio frequency transceivers to Russia that have been subsequently found in Orlan-10 drones. (FT, 10.30.24)
  • A pair of Swiss lawyers were hit by U.S. sanctions for helping illegal money flow from Russia through shell companies. The lawyers, Andres Baumgartner and Fabio Libero Delco, were sanctioned by the Office of Foreign Assets Control who said the pair “are major handlers of Russian assets and are important business and cash flow facilitators for Russian in Switzerland and Liechtenstein.” (Bloomberg, 10.30.24)
• Finance ministers of the G7 nations vowed Oct. 26 to step up efforts to prevent Russia from evading sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine. "We remain committed to taking further initiatives in response to oil price cap violations," the group said in a statement following a meeting in Washington. (MT/AFP, 10.27.24)
• The West will struggle to break its reliance on Russian nuclear fuel without bigger incentives for alternative suppliers or restrictions on Moscow’s supplies, said Nicolas Maes, chief executive of French group Orano. “It’s then up to the political world to choose what they do to make that happen.” After Putin’s full-blown invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the nuclear fuel supply chain was initially spared sweeping sanctions because of Moscow’s dominant position, with roughly 40 % of the global enrichment market. (FT, 10.30.24)
• Occupying the top three floors of an unremarkable office building in northern Mumbai, there’s little to distinguish Shreya Life Sciences from the many other commercial businesses. A Bloomberg News analysis of data compiled by trade-tracking firms ImportGenius and NBD shows that Shreya exported 1,111 units of Dell Technologies Inc.’s most-advanced servers to Russia in April-August of this year. (Bloomberg, 10.27.24)
• The U.S. Treasury has imposed sanctions on five Russian deputy defense ministers, including Anna Tsivileva. (Media Zona, 10.30.24)
• Skydio, the U.S.’s largest drone maker and a supplier to Ukraine’s military, faces a supply chain crisis after Beijing imposed sanctions on the company, including banning Chinese groups from providing it with critical components. China’s sanctions, imposed on Oct. 11, hit several U.S. groups, including privately held Skydio, in retaliation for Washington’s approval of the sale of attack drones to Taiwan. Skydio had recently won a contract with Taiwan’s fire agency. (FT, 10.31.24)
• The Bank for International Settlements is leaving a project for digital cross-border payments after Putin identified the underlying technology as a tool to circumvent sanctions and potentially undermine the dollar. The countries behind project mBridge — China, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong and the United Arab Emirates — will now keep pursuing it on their own. China supplied the platform’s key technological backbone.  (Bloomberg, 10.31.24)
• Raiffeisen Bank International AG slashed the volume of its Russian loans and deposits by about a quarter, after the European Central Bank demanded the lender cut its exposure in the country. However, the bank is unwilling to divest from Russia without compensation. In a conference call on Oct. 30 to discuss the bank’s third-quarter performance, CEO Johann Strobl fielded at least four questions about the company’s Raiffeisenbank subsidiary. He stressed that RBI prioritizes its “accelerated downsizing” in Russia but rejects a “zero scenario” where it abandons its Russian assets for nothing. (Meduza, 10.31.24, Bloomberg, 10.29.24)
• When YouTube blocked three Russian channels it said were controlled by sanctioned supporters of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. video company thought any disputes would be resolved in courts in California and England. It couldn’t have been more wrong. Almost two years on — and nine countries later — the Russian media firms behind those channels turned to the South African courts. (Bloomberg, 10.30.24)
  • Google has racked up some 2 undecillion rubles ($2.5 decillion) worth of fines in Russia after years of refusing to restore the accounts of pro-Kremlin and state-run media outlets, the RBC news website reported Oct. 29, citing an anonymous source familiar with court rulings against the tech company. (MT/AFP, 10.29.24)
• Britain's government unveiled new sanctions on three Russian public relations firms and their top managers, accusing them of “attempting to undermine and destabilize Ukraine and its democracy.” London said it was targeting Russia's state-funded Social Design Agency (SDA), its partner company Structura and another firm called Ano Dialog, as well as three senior managers from each organization.” (MT/AFP, 10.28.24)
• Finnish authorities have seized a beach section owned by the Russian state that was previously used by diplomats for recreation, media reports in Finland say. The area, located near the southern town of Haggesbole, covers 17 hectares of land and 3.5 hectares of marine waters.. (RFE/RL, 10.29.24)
  • Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Oct. 30 that it summoned the Finnish ambassador in Moscow to protest the seizure of Russian state properties in connection to a Ukrainian lawsuit. (MT/AFP, 10.30.24)
• The European continent’s economy continued to limp along, expanding just 0.4% in the latest quarter. Dragging Europe down is a loss of competitiveness that has continued to weigh on businesses — a problem that Mario Draghi, former head of the European Central Bank, said in a recent landmark report had put Europe’s “reason for being” at risk. A key reason is that Russia’s war in Ukraine is still taking a toll, the IMF said. (NYT, 10.30.24)
• The Russian Foreign Ministry on Oct. 29 announced sanctions against 131 Australian citizens, banning them from entering the country. The list includes representatives of the defense industry, broadcast journalists, and public figures, whom Russia accuses of promoting an "anti-Russian agenda." (RFE/RL, 10.29.24)
• During a security forum in Minsk, Hungary's Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto sharply criticized EU sanctions against Belarus and Russia, advocating for dialogue over isolation.  he Oct. 31 visit represents a rare engagement with Belarus under the authoritarian rule of Alyaksandr Lukashenka, particularly following the regime's harsh crackdown on dissent after the disputed 2020 presidential election. (RFE/RL, 10.31.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• For weeks, Zelenskyy has pushed Western leaders to support his so-called victory plan, which he claims will end the country’s war with Russia next year. But Zelenskyy has received only lukewarm rhetorical support. No country has agreed to allow Ukraine to fire Western long-range missiles at military targets deep inside Russia. Nor has any major power publicly endorsed inviting Ukraine into NATO while the war is raging. By those measures, Zelenskyy’s lobbying tour of the United States and Europe over the past six weeks could be seen as a failure. But the real audience for the plan might be at home, some military analysts and diplomats say. Zelenskyy can use his hard sell — including a recent address to Parliament — to show Ukrainians that he has done all he can, prepare them for the possibility that Ukraine might have to make a deal and give Ukrainians a convenient scapegoat: the West. (NYT, 10.29.24)
• In a recent interview, Zelenskyy reiterated that he was still against ceding territory. But he also talked about diplomatic steps to resolve issues like protecting energy infrastructure and establishing a safe shipping corridor out of Ukraine on the Black Sea. And he hinted at one approach that might allow Ukraine to save face if it does not reclaim all the land Russia has captured. “No one will legally recognize the occupied territories as belonging to other states,” he said. (NYT, 10.29.24)
• Ukraine and Russia are in preliminary discussions about halting strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure, according to people familiar with the matter. Kyiv was seeking to resume Qatar-mediated negotiations that came close to agreement in August before being derailed by Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk, said the people, who included senior Ukrainian officials. But Putin is unlikely to agree a deal until Russia’s forces oust Ukrainian troops from its Kursk region, where they still control about 600 sq km of territory, according to a former senior Kremlin official briefed on the talks. “As long as the [Ukrainians] are trampling the land in Kursk, Putin will hit Zelenskyy’s energy infrastructure,” the person said. (FT, 10.30.24)
• The Kremlin has denied a report in the Western media that Moscow and Kyiv have been engaged in secret negotiations to curb strikes on each other's energy infrastructure as casualties caused by Russian attacks continued to pile up in Ukraine on Oct. 30. (RFE/RL, 10.30.24)
• After Russia hosted Turkey and about 30 other countries in the city of Kazan, Putin told state television that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had delivered a new proposal aimed at starting negotiations with Ukraine over navigation in the Black Sea “and some other matters.” Putin claimed Ukraine had previously made negotiation proposals through Turkey but then declined to engage; he said it was “impossible to make plans on this basis.” Ukrainian and Western officials view Russia’s offers to discuss peace as a demand for capitulation. (NYT, 10.29.24)
• Popular podcaster Joe Rogan asked what Donald Trump could do about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Trump has repeatedly said, without providing details, that he could negotiate an end to the conflict. "If I told you exactly what I'd do, I could never make the deal," Trump told Rogan. (WP, 10.26.24)
• The next U.S. president needs to push through a truce that would get Russia and Ukraine on board to end the war, according to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, who maintains channels to both warring parties. (Bloomberg, 10.30.24)
• Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said he believes that Ukraine and Russia should return to the negotiating table without preconditions. "And the document developed earlier in Istanbul may become the main one for them. Of course, this document will change during the negotiations, but why not start with it?" Lukashenko noted and added that "Minsk should be at the negotiating table if this concerns the conflict in Ukraine. This is a question of guaranteeing our security." (Korrespondent.net, 10.31.24)
• Ukraine is preparing a plan to resolve the war, which will be presented at the second peace summit, said press secretary of the President of Ukraine, Sergei Nikiforov. (RBC.ua, 10.31.24)
• More than two-thirds of Ukrainians believe it’s time to start peace talks with Russia, according to a September survey of 2,016 people by the Kyiv-based Razumkov Centre, an increase of 14 percentage points on the same period last year. (Bloomberg, 11.01.24)
• Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of Bratislava's fair approach to the Ukrainian crisis during a meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in Beijing. (TASS, 11.01.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin wrote: “Ukraine matters to U.S. security for four blunt reasons. Putin’s war is a direct threat to European security, a clear challenge to our NATO allies, an attack on our shared values and a frontal assault on the rules-based international order that keeps us all safe.” (FA, 11.01.24.)
• U.S. vice presidential nominee JD Vance--Republican Donald Trump's running mate--acknowledged that Putin is “clearly an adversary” of the United States, but he declined to call him an “enemy” during an interview with NBC News broadcast on Oct. 27. “Just because we don’t like somebody doesn’t mean we can’t occasionally engage in conversations with him,” Vance said, adding that to end the Ukraine war, “we’re going to have to engage in some sort of negotiations” with Kyiv, Moscow and NATO allies. Asked if he would call Putin an “enemy,” Vance responded: “We’re not in a war with him, and I don’t want to be in a war with Vladimir Putin’s Russia.” “Donald Trump wants NATO to be strong. He wants us to remain in NATO,” JD Vance said. (RFE/RL, 10.27.24, Bloomberg, 10.27.24)
• A German paper reports that Paris and London are leaning toward an invitation into NATO for Ukraine, and even the Biden administration is cautiously willing to entertain the topic, according to FT columnist Constanze Stelzenmüller. (FT, 10.29.24)
• U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Russia could provide targeting information to Houthi rebels in Yemen, but do not believe Moscow has taken such a step, according to American officials. The Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout has been negotiating with the Houthis to sell them advanced missiles, though a deal has not yet been completed, officials say. The United States swapped Bout in the prisoner exchange that freed the WNBA star Brittney Griner from a Russian prison in December 2022. (NYT, 10.26.24)
• The EU should spend a fifth of its common budget on security and crisis preparedness as it enters a period of increased risk from geopolitical tensions and climate change, Finland’s former president warned in a landmark report on the bloc’s defense. The report recommends that “at least 20 % of the overall EU budget contributes to the EU’s security and crisis preparedness.” The current budget which runs until 2027 amounts to €1.2tn — roughly 1 % of the EU’s GDP. (FT, 10.30.24)
• People living in the European Union should stockpile emergency supplies in the event of war breaking out or another major emergency, a new report has advised. The report on Europe's civilian and military preparedness, published on Oct. 30, was written by former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö in his capacity as Special Adviser to the President of the European Commission. (Newsweek, 11.01.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Cooperation between Russia and China is not directed against third countries, so it is not clear why it is necessary to hinder such interaction, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, commenting on Trump's statement that he would "un-unite" Moscow and Beijing if he wins. (TASS, 11.01.24)
• Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have outlined significant plans for the advancement of Sino-Russian relations, according to Li Hui, Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Eurasian Affairs, speaking at the 2nd Minsk International Conference on Eurasian Security. (TASS, 11.01.24)
• Finnish President Alexander Stubb raised “Russian aggression” with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Russia’s war in Ukraine was the key topic in Stubb’s “frank and open” talks with Xi, which lasted for more than three hours on Oct. 29, the Finnish leader told reporters at a briefing afterward. (Bloomberg, 10.29.24)
• The chief of the U.S. Space Force has warned that China is putting military capabilities into space at a “mind-boggling” pace, significantly increasing the risk of warfare in orbit. (FT, 11.01.24)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms

• On Oct. 27, Putin said he hoped the West "heard" his warning about the danger of a direct war with NATO if it allowed Ukraine to use long-range weapons against Russia. Putin made the initial threat in September after Britain and the United States mulled letting Kyiv use long-range arms against Russian targets, warning this would put NATO "at war" with Moscow. "They didn't tell me anything about it, but I hope they heard," Putin said in remarks to a state TV reporter when asked if the West had listened to his warning. (MT/AFP, 10.27.24)
• On Oct. 29, Putin said: “Today we are conducting another training session of strategic deterrence forces. We will practice the actions of officials in managing the use of nuclear weapons with practical launches of ballistic and cruise missiles. I will immediately note that Russia confirms its fundamental position that the use of nuclear weapons is an extreme, exceptional measure to ensure state security. At the same time, we understand very well that it is the nuclear triad that continues to be a reliable guarantor of the sovereignty and security of our country, allows us to solve the problems of strategic deterrence, as well as maintain nuclear parity and the balance of power in the world as objective factors of global stability. Given the growth of geopolitical tensions, the emergence of new external threats and risks, it is important to have modern strategic forces that are constantly ready for combat use. We will continue to improve all their components. We have the resources for this. I emphasize that we are not going to get involved in a new arms race, but we will maintain nuclear forces at the level of necessary sufficiency. This year, [the share] of modern weapons in their [these forces’] arsenal has reached about 94%. In accordance with the State Armament Program, we will systematically rearm the Strategic Missile Forces with new stationary and mobile missile systems, which, compared to previous generations, have higher accuracy, reduced launch preparation time and, most importantly, increased capabilities to overcome missile defense systems. In addition, the introduction of the latest nuclear submarines into the Navy continues, as well as the modernization of long-range strategic bombers. All this is necessary for the effective protection of Russia and our citizens.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.29.24)
  • The wargame involved the Novomoskovsk SSBN of the Northern Fleet and Knyaz Oleg SSBN of the Pacific Fleet, which launched Bulava and Sineva SLBMs. It also involved the launches of cruise missiles from Tu-95ms long-range bombers and a the launch of the Yars mobile ICBM, according to Vedomosti’s story and Kommersant’s story, which said the Russian strategic triad simulated a “massive nuclear strike.” The Russian MoD asserted that all of the launched delivery systems successfully reached their targets. (RM, 10.29.24) Note the consistency: the 2022 wargame of the Russian strategic triad also featured a Yars ICBM, a SSBN and a Tu-95 bomber, while the 2023 wargame of the strategic triad involved the launch of a Yars ICBM as well as the launch of a Sineva SLMB from the Tula SSBN and Tu-95ms bombers also launched cruise missiles. At the same time, the 2023 wargame didn’t include the launch of a Bulava SLBM, while the 2024 wargame did. Also note that Russia’s MIRVed liquid fuel Sarmat was not reported to have been launched in the wargame of the strategic triad this week. IISS experts hypothesized that this ICBM suffered a catastrophic flight-test failure, possibly exploding inside a silo in September 2024. 

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Russian hackers are going after U.S. government officials, defense workers and others in a new email phishing campaign targeting thousands of people, according to Microsoft Corp. The hackers have sent “a series of highly targeted spearphishing emails” to thousands of people in more than 100 organizations since Oct. 22, according to a blog post from Microsoft Threat Intelligence published Oct. 29. (Bloomberg, 10.29.24)
• Chinese government hackers have tried to get inside telephones used by former president Donald Trump, Sen. JD Vance and others working on their campaign for the White House, as well as the Harris campaign, officials familiar with the matter said Oct. 25. (WP, 10.27.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• European companies are not nearing a deal to replace Russian gas imports via Ukraine with supply from Azerbaijan, Slovak state-owned gas buyer SPP said on Nov. 1, dismissing a media report that said a deal was close. (RBC.ua, 11.01.24)
• Tankers carrying sanctioned liquefied natural gas from Russia are gathering off the country’s far eastern coast, a sign of the difficulties in finding buyers in the midst of ever-tightening western restrictions. The vessels — Nova Energy, Pioneer and Asya Energy — all loaded shipments from the Arctic LNG 2 facility in northern Russia, which has been targeted by U.S. sanctions. (Bloomberg, 10.30.24)
• EU countries, in preparation for the winter of 2024-2025, met the deadlines set by the European Commission for filling gas storage facilities with 90% of their capacity filled. (Ukrainska Pravda, 10.31.24)

Climate change:

• NATO has warned that Russia is withholding vital data needed for scientists to model the scale and effects of climate change from the Arctic, a strategically important region that is the fastest warming part of the planet, as part of a wider misinformation campaign being waged against the West. “They are withholding some of the important information that is needed for the [climate] reporting,” a senior NATO official said. (FT, 10.28.24)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

Elections interference:

• Foreign instigators linked to Russia and China are to blame for amplifying disinformation about the U.S. government’s response to a pair of hurricanes that devastated several southeastern states, according to a U.S. official. False claims circulated by the foreign actors included that the U.S. government was denying storm victims access to relief funds, according to the official, who described the declassified findings on condition of anonymity. One debunked post from a Kremlin-linked account depicted a flooded Disney World. (Bloomberg, 10.28.24)
• Eight years after Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election, foreign influence with American voters has grown more sophisticated and far more difficult to track. Disinformation from abroad -- particularly from Russia, China and Iran -- has matured into a consistent and pernicious threat, as the countries test, iterate and deploy increasingly nuanced tactics, according to U.S. intelligence and defense officials, tech companies and academic researchers. Russia, according to American intelligence assessments, aims to bolster the candidacy of former President Donald Trump, while Iran favors his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. China appears to have no preferred outcome. (NYT, 10.29.24)
• U.S. adversaries have targeted Spanish-language speakers and other minority groups in efforts to influence the presidential election, seeking to fan internal social divisions and elevate their favored candidate through disinformation and propaganda. Russia and Iran have attempted in recent months to focus on specific slices of the electorate to influence voters toward their preferred outcome, according to U.S. intelligence officials and disinformation researchers. (WSJ, 11.01.24)
• U.S. intelligence officials say Russian operatives attempting to interfere with the American election were behind a fake video supposedly showing someone tearing up ballots in Pennsylvania. (Bloomberg, 10.26.24)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Last week Trump contrasted Biden with the leaders of Russia and North Korea. "Putin and the whole group, Kim Jong Un, they're tough guys out there," Trump said. "They're tough and they're smart and they're streetwise and they're at the top of their game. And we don't have that." (WP, 10.26.24)
• A U.S. soldier serving a prison sentence in Russia’s Far East appeared on state television Oct. 29, saying he hoped to be exchanged at some point in the future. Gordon Black spoke to state broadcaster Rossiya from prison, looking pale and wearing the same clothes he had on at the time of his arrest earlier this year. (MT/AFP, 10.29.24)
• Former employee of the U.S. Consulate in Vladivostok Robert Shonov was sentenced to almost five years under the article on cooperation with foreigners. (Meduza, 11.01.24)
• Some 78 respondents of the Levada Center’s September-October poll say they are aware of the U.S. presidential election campaign. Some 37% of them believe it would be better for Russia if Trump wins, while only 5% would like Harris to win, according to the poll. Almost half of respondents are confident that Russian-American relations will not change regardless of whether Harris or Trump is elected (44% think so in the first case, 40% in the second), according to Levada. (RM, 10.31.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia's draft 2025 budget allocates about one-third of total expenditure, or 6.3% of GDP, to the military - the highest level since the Cold War. For the first time, the share of spending on defense will be double that of social spending. The huge increase in military spending is generating inflationary heat in Russia's economy. Interest rates have risen to their highest since 2003 and the ruble has slid to a one-year low against the dollar.  The government has already started raising taxes to fund its war in Ukraine, now in its third year. A major tax reform is expected to generate additional revenues worth 1.7% of GDP in 2025. Economists argue this will not be enough. (Reuters, 10.31.24)
• Government officials met this week with dairy producers and reached agreement on tracking butter output in an effort to ease prices that have jumped more than 25% this year, according to Federal Statistics Service data. (Bloomberg, 11.01.24)
• The growth of the credit burden after the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank and difficulties with debt servicing may put more than 200 shopping centers on the brink of bankruptcy next year in Russia. Their owners, through the industry union, are trying to convince the authorities of the need for state support measures - subsidizing the rate to 7-10% and introducing a moratorium on changing the terms of some existing loans. (Kommersant, 11.01.24)
• Rosstat has stopped publishing statistics on the migration situation in the country in its monthly report on the "Socio-Economic Situation of Russia," demographer Alexey Raksha noted. (Meduza, 11.01.24)
• The number of political activists placed in forced psychiatric treatment in Russia in 2023 was five times higher than the average for 2021-2022, the independent investigative news outlet Agentstvo said. (MT/AFP, 10.28.24)
• Russian opposition figures Ilya Yashin, Yulia Navalnaya and Vladimir Kara-Murza have called for a major antiwar demonstration in Berlin on Nov. 17 to demand the resignation of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Yashin says he is working with colleagues -- including Navalnaya and Kara-Murza -- to unite Russians abroad with the goal of removing Putin from office. (RFE/RL, 10.29.24, RFE/RL, 10.30.24)
• The head of Russia's human rights council Valery Fadeev on Oct. 30 called Moscow's major crackdown on dissent part of "sanitary measures" while the country fights in Ukraine, denying the existence of political repression. (MT/AFP, 10.30.24)
• Authorities in Russia’s Vladimir region have banned students from wearing hijabs while at school. (MT/AFP, 10.28.24)
  • The republic of Chechnya’s supreme mufti on Oct. 29 decried bans on hijabs and other religious clothing in schools as unconstitutional, arguing that the restrictions violate a person’s right to freedom of conscience and religion. (MT/AFP, 10.29.24)
• War-fatigued Russians are turning to entertainment for distraction in what could threaten Russia’s “civilizational identity,” said the head of Russia’s Orthodox Church. “After almost three years of active military operations, we see there’s a certain weariness among our fellow citizens of reports from the front lines,” Patriarch Kirill said at the church’s World Russian People’s Council. (MT/AFP, 11.01.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• On Oct. 31, at 10:51:31 MSK (07:51:31 UTC) crews of the Russian Air and Space Forces conducted a successful launch of a Soyuz 2.1a launcher, carrying Cosmos-2579. This  satellite delivered into orbit is believed to be a digital cartographic satellite 14F148 Bars-M. This is the sixth launch of satellites of the Bars-M type. The previous launch took place in December 2023. (russianforces.org, 11.01.24)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• The Moscow City Court on Oct. 29 sentenced Tajikistan-born IT specialist Firuz Dadoboev to 13 1/2 years in prison on a high treason charge. Russian state news agencies quoted the FSB as saying that Dadoboev, who was born in 1977 and holds dual citizenship, was arrested in the Russian capital in October 2022 while attempting to pass classified information to a CIA representative. (RFE/RL, 10.29.24)
• Former Head of the Communications Department of the Russian Defense Ministry Alexander Ogloblin was arrested in a bribery case. According to investigators, between 2016 and 2021, Ogloblin received more than 10 million rubles from representatives of the Perm Telephone Plant Telta OJSC for "providing general patronage in the execution of a multimillion-dollar state defense order for the supply of communication devices for the needs of the Defense Ministry." (Istories, 10.28.24)
• The Meshchansky District Court of Moscow has sent Dmitry Gromov, a top manager of the Dzerzhinsky sewing factory "Rus.” Gromov is accused of large-scale fraud (Part 4 of Article 159 of the Criminal Code). According to the investigation, he and other defendants in the case sold army toiletry bags - special bags with hygiene kits - to the Ministry of Defense at an inflated price. As a result, according to the investigation, the Ministry suffered damages of 400 million rubles. (Media Zone, 11.01.24)
• Police and FSB agents arrested three people in the Vladimir region working at a military recruitment center. The Internal Affairs Ministry’s spokeswoman said on Oct. 30 that the suspects stole SIM card numbers from men enlisting as contract soldiers and then remotely seized control of their bank accounts, embezzling more than 11 million rubles ($113,000) in benefits paid to the soldiers. (Meduza, 10.31.24)

• Police in Russia’s Chelyabinsk region detained around 20 Roma for “crime prevention talks” after ethnic tensions flared last week over a woman’s murder, local media reported Oct. 27. (MT/AFP, 10.28.24)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including  relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Lavrov plans to visit Malta to attend a meeting of the OSCE on Dec. 5–6, ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Nov. 1. If Lavrov attends the meeting, it will be his first trip to an EU country since Russia launched its full-scale war against Ukraine in 2022. (Meduza, 11.01.24)
• Russia’s plan to send two strategic bombers to Pretoria as a display of defense cooperation was postponed after the plan was criticized by one of the main members of South Africa’s coalition government. The scheduled arrival of the Tupolev Tu-160 jets at Air Force Base Waterkloof on Oct. 29 “has been postponed,” the South African National Defense Force said. The plan to receive two of Russia’s so-called Blackjack bombers raised questions over South Africa’s non-aligned stance in global conflicts, the Democratic Alliance said in a statement. The party is the second-largest in South Africa’s four-month-old coal (Bloomberg, 10.30.24)
  • Speaking at a summit of the BRICS countries in Kazan, South African  President Cyril Ramaphosa declared that Putin was a “valued ally” and “valued friend” of South Africa. This provoked an angry response from John Steenhuisen, the minister of agriculture in Ramaphosa’s cabinet, who said that Putin may be Ramaphosa’s friend but his “authoritarian regime, that is currently violating international law by waging an imperialist war of aggression against a sovereign state”, is no friend of South Africa. (FT, 10.27.24)
• Egypt will begin receiving a delayed Russian shipment of 430,000 tons of wheat in November, Supply Minister Sherif Farouk said. (Bloomberg, 10.28.24)
• German prosecutors said Oct. 31 that they charged a German-Russian man who fought with a pro-Moscow militia in eastern Ukraine with terror offenses and for threatening state security. The suspect, identified only as Dieter S., was one of two men arrested in April on suspicion of planning attacks in Germany to undermine support for Ukraine, with targets including U.S. military bases. (MT/AFP, 10.31.24)

Ukraine:

• Ukrainian officials reject the notion that a Trump victory would be disastrous for Kyiv and that they are dreading the possibility. Within Zelenskyy's office, there's an optimism that the Ukrainian leader could sway Trump if the two forged a personal bond. (WP, 11.01.24)
• Ukraine should exhume and rebury ethnic Poles massacred on its territory and Germany should invest in military cooperation and compensate Polish victims of the Nazis, Poland’s foreign minister has said. Radosław Sikorski told the FT that historic grievances could not be brushed aside even in the midst of Russia’s war against Ukraine, citing the 1940s Volhynia massacres of about 100,000 ethnic Poles. (FT, 10.29.24)
• Ukraine held interest rates steady and said borrowing costs will likely stay on hold until next year as policymakers in the war-battered nation gauge inflationary pressure and the results of next week’s U.S. presidential election.  The National Bank of Ukraine kept the rate unchanged at 13% for a third consecutive meeting, it said in a statement on Oct. 31.  (Bloomberg, 10.31.24)
• Zelenskyy submitted a motion to the Verkhovna Rada to dismiss Andriy Kostin from the post of Ukraine’s prosecutor general on Oct. 28. The parliament supported Kostin's resignation the next day. Earlier  Kostin announced his decision to resign from the post of Prosecutor General after scandals related to false disability claims made by prosecutors. (RBC.ua, 10.31.24)
• The Security Service of Ukraine has eliminated four schemes for draft dodgers The organizers of the fraud have been detained in the Kyiv, Kharkiv, Rivne, Kirovohrad and Lviv regions. For amounts ranging from 5,000 to 20,000 dollars, they helped conscripts evade conscription on the basis of forged documents. (Korrespondent.net, 11.01.24)
• Russian law enforcement authorities in annexed Crimea charged a woman with treason for allegedly buying non-fungible token stamps in support of the Ukrainian military. Lyudmila Kolesnikova was arrested by FSB agents at a cemetery in the resort city of Yalta in June. Kolesnikova said she traveled from Ireland to attend her mother’s funeral. (MT/AFP, 10.30.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Georgia’s ruling party declared victory in parliamentary elections that opponents said were rigged, with international observers highlighting several shortcomings they said marred the outcome and the country’s president saying she refused to accept it. Georgian Dream, led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, received about 54% of the vote, the election commission said. The party’s four main rivals, which have pledged to support a pro-European Union charter drawn up by President Salome Zourabichvili, all crossed the threshold to qualify for parliament and jointly held about 37% of the vote share. (Bloomberg, 10.27.24)
• Georgia’s opposition has called for protests and Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili has called on the West to pressure the ruling Georgian Dream party to reexamine the results of a "stolen" election over the weekend or risk seeing the Caucasus nation -- an EU candidate with NATO membership aspirations -- lose its "European perspective." Zourabichvili’s condemnation of the results is largely symbolic because the president in Georgia lacks power over domestic policy. (Bloomberg, 10.27.24, RFE/RL, 10.29.24, FT, 10.27.24)
  • Georgia’s Prosecution Service opened a probe into fraud allegations in the country’s parliamentary elections and said it plans to question Zourabichvili about her claims that the results were rigged. (Bloomberg, 10.30.24)
  • Georgian authorities say they have opened 47 cases of alleged election fraud and arrested two people accused of stuffing ballot boxes during the Oct. 26 election. (RFE/RL, 10.31.24)
• The European Union, NATO and the United States have demanded a full investigation into reports of vote-buying, voter intimidation, and ballot stuffing raised by monitors from the OSCE and other election monitors. (RFE/RL, 10.31.24)
  • "We have already suspended $95 million in assistance to the government of Georgia and other assistance that we provide remains under review," State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told a news briefing in Washington. (RFE/RL, 10.31.24)
• Hungary’s pro-Russian prime minister Viktor Orbán has defied fellow EU leaders and hailed Georgia’s contested election as “free and democratic” despite mounting evidence of vote rigging. “When liberals win, Brussels calls it democracy. When conservatives win, they say it’s not democracy. Don’t take it too seriously — it’s business as usual,” Orbán said on Oct. 29 at a news conference alongside Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. (FT, 10.29.24)
  • A group of European Union member states criticized Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban for what they called a “premature” visit to Georgia. (Bloomberg, 10.28.24)
• Georgia has no plans to restore diplomatic relations with Russia due to Moscow's ongoing presence in Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the South Caucasus country's prime minister said Oct. 27. (MT/AFP, 10.27.24)
• The European Commission has in effect frozen Georgia’s accession process and suspended €121mn in funding. An EU diplomat with knowledge of an upcoming Commission report on enlargement said that it included a recommendation not to open accession talks with Georgia. (FT, 10.29.24)
• UBS Group AG says its won a $282 million reduction in damages it owes to Bidzina Ivanishvili, the controversial Georgian tycoon and political leader who fell victim to a massive embezzlement scheme by a rogue banker at Credit Suisse. Singapore’s International Commercial Court ordered the damages previously set at $743 million to be cut to $461 million, UBS said. (Bloomberg, 10.30.24)
• At least 1,800 bots on the social media site X are promoting the controversial choice of Azerbaijan, a major oil and gas producer, to host next month's U.N. Climate Change Conference known as COP29, according to a new analysis shared exclusively with The Washington Post. The analysis by Marc Owen Jones, an expert on disinformation at Northwestern University in Qatar, found that nearly three-quarters of the accounts were created this year and roughly two-thirds had activity patterns consistent with bots. In addition to environmental posts, the bots also shared anti-Armenian messages, the analysis found. At least 23 prominent Armenian political figures are still being held in prison by Azerbaijan. (WP, 10.29.24)
• Human rights watchdogs say Azerbaijan is in the midst of a vicious campaign of repression. But in global geopolitics, this energy-rich Caucasus country now has a lot of leverage. In the months leading up to a high-profile global climate summit in November, the government of Azerbaijan has been intensely preparing for its role as host, renovating building facades, training volunteers and retrofitting a stadium for tens of thousands of delegates. The energy-rich nation in the Caucasus Mountains region has engaged in more ominous activity as well: It has locked up dozens of activists and journalists in what experts describe as the country’s most aggressive campaign of repression in years. (NYT, 11.01.24)
• Moldova’s plan to join the European Union will be written into the country’s constitution after the highest court approved results of a recent referendum, rejecting claims by the pro-Russian opposition that the vote was flawed. The six judges of the eastern European nation’s Constitutional Court ruled with a majority of votes that the criteria for validating the referendum have been met. Moldova’s Oct. 20 referendum on EU membership, held alongside presidential elections, passed by a razor-thin margin. (Bloomberg, 10.31.24)
• Estonia’s Foreign Ministry summoned Russia’s charge d’affaires amid an ongoing border dispute over a shared river. In May, Estonian border guards accused their Russian counterparts of removing two dozen navigation buoys from the Narva River, which flows north into the Baltic Sea from Lake Peipsi, or Lake Chudskoye as it is known in Russia. At the time, Estonian authorities called the buoy removal a “clear provocation.” Estonia’s note of protest issued to Russia’s charge d’affairs, Lenar Salimullin, stated that Moscow had not officially sought to renegotiate the course of the fairway along the Narva River. (MT/AFP, 10.29.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• “Soon, there may be no one left even to use the weapons they give us,” said Ukrainian volunteer Yevhen Tuzov, “because all our Western partners want is for us to fight until the last Ukrainian.” (NYT, 10.29.24)
• “More and more we hear in Washington and Europe that Kyiv is unreasonable to expect to regain 100% of its territory, and the Ukrainians are beginning to get their heads around it,” said Camille Grand, a former NATO assistant secretary general and defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations who just visited Ukraine. (NYT, 10.29.24)
• CEIP contributor Aleksandr Atasuntsev wrote: “The Georgian Dream message that in the current elections Georgians are choosing between war and peace turned out to be clearly more convincing than the opposition narrative about the choice between Russia and the EU.” (CEIP, 10.29.24)

Footnotes

1. That headline was also reflected in the piece’s original web address: https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/10/29/ukraine-is-now-struggling-to-survive-not-to-win 

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Oleg Petrasiuk/Ukrainian 24th Mechanised Brigade via AP.