3 Things to Know

1. This week has heard Vladimir Putin continue to rattle his nuclear saber, prompting Donald Trump to rattle his own. On Oct. 26, Putin flaunted what he described as a nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile, calling  it “a unique weapon that no other country possesses,” even as Western experts questioned the utility of the missile’s claimed ability to cruise for 15 hours and the impact on the environment the missile’s nuclear propulsion unit can have upon striking the ground after ending of its test flight. Then on Oct. 29, Putin announced the successful test of the Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater drone, praising it as “unmatched in speed and depth” and “impossible to intercept.”¹ Putin’s statements followed Trump’s Oct. 22 decision to slap sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft in what may be an indication that the Kremlin considers these punitive measures to be impactful for Russia’s war-time budget,² which depends on energy exports to a large extent.³ Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling was not missed by the White House. Donald Trump first warned Russia that the United States has “the world’s greatest nuclear submarine” stationed off Russian shores and then ordered the immediate resumption of nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China. While the Kremlin claims Burevestnik has a nuclear propulsion unit, there have been no credible reports of this missile being outfitted with an actual nuclear warhead for denotating it even though it is reportedly designed to carry such a warhead. Russia has not detonated a nuclear weapon since 1990. Nor has China tested a nuclear weapon since 1996.⁴ Thus, it remains unclear what Trump meant by “an equal basis” with Rusia and China.
2. As part of Kremlin-orchestrated exercise in nuclear saber-rattling, a spokeswoman for Belarussian president Alexander Lukashenko announced that a Russian nuclear capable missile Oreshnik will be put on combat duty in this ex-Soviet republic the next month, while a senior Russian MP threatened that Moscow can deploy these MRBMs in Latin America. “It’s not about moving the "Oreshnik" closer to Europe… deliveries could also be made, for example, to Venezuela or to Cuba,” Aleksey Zhuravlyov, First Deputy Chairman of Russia’s State Duma Committee on Defense, said when commenting on the deployment of this missile in Belarus. “'Oreshnik'⁵ is by no means the only weapon that can be dangerous for our enemy; we possess the full range. And if necessary, we will use what is needed,” Zhuravlyov warned. Russia’s parliament takes orders from the Kremlin on what to say and how to vote on major issues. Thus, it is difficult to imagine that Zhuravlyov has voiced these threats without the presidential staff’s approval/guidance on nuclear saber-rattling. Zhuravlyov’s threats are unlikely to represent any real intention by the Kremlin to send Russian nuclear weapons to Cuba or Venezuela (even if one of them would reportedly welcome conventional missiles). That said, Zhuravlyov may have intended to appear more threatening than, say, chair of Duma’s defense committee Andrei Kartopolov of the United Russia party would have been. After all, Zhuravlyov represents the misnamed Liberal-Democratic Party of Russia, which pretends to represent an ultranationalist wing in Russia’s so-called ‘systemic opposition.’
3. This week has seen Russian forces advance in two pincer movements from the center of Pokrovsk and villages to the northeast with only a few miles separating the military advances, according to DeepState’s maps analyzed by NYT. DeepState, a reputable Ukrainian OSINT group, reported a “massive infiltration” of this Donetsk region city, which Russian command claims to have encircled along with Kupyansk, warning on Oct. 29 that “the situation in Pokrovsk is on the verge of [being] critical.” In a follow-up Oct. 31 assessment DeepState reported that Russian forces advanced in Pokrovsk while Ukraine’s Korrespondent.net reported on the same day that “a fierce battle is ongoing for the city of Pokrovsk.” If captured, Pokrovsk would be the largest city to be taken by Russian forces since Bakhmut in May 2023, according to The Washington Post. Its fall will be a serious setback, as the city is a junction for road and railway lines and would bring Russian forces closer to the Donetsk region cities of Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka, according to the Post. In the past four weeks (Sept. 30–Oct. 28, 2025), Russian forces gained 154 square miles of Ukrainian territory, an increase over the 146 square miles these forces gained during the previous four-week period (Sept. 2–30, 2025), according to the Oct. 29 issue of The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In the week of Oct. 21–28, 2025, Russia has gained 39 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, up slightly from the previous week’s gain of 33 square miles, according to the card.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reported ongoing efforts to repair the Ferosplavna-1 power line at Ukraine's Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant after additional damage was found last week. The plant, recently reconnected after a month on emergency diesel generators, remains vulnerable due to military activity. Recent strikes also cut off power lines to other Ukrainian nuclear plants and forced reactor output reductions. (IAEA, 10.30.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on Monday terminating an already defunct plutonium disposal agreement with the United States that aimed to prevent both sides from building more nuclear weapons. (MT/AFP, 10.27.25)
• Russia’s Rostekhnadzor and China’s National Nuclear Safety Administration (NNSA) held a joint coordination meeting on Oct. 29, focusing on nuclear fuel licensing, reactor safety standards, and cooperation on fusion projects. (Rostekhnadzor, 10.29.25)
• U.S. President Donald Trump announced Thursday that he has authorized South Korea to build a nuclear-powered submarine, granting access to sensitive military technology. (Washington Post, 10.30.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin met North Korea’s top diplomat during her visit to Moscow as the two countries continue to deepen their military cooperation. “Everything is proceeding as planned” in regards to developing relations between the two countries, Putin told North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui. Choe also held talks with her Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, earlier in the day. (Bloomberg, 10.27.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• A U.N. commission has found that Russian forces routinely use small drones to deliberately target civilians in Kherson, southern Ukraine. According to the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, Russian drone strikes have killed more than 200 civilians and wounded 2,000 over the past year, as part of a coordinated campaign to terrorize and force the evacuation of residents. The report documented hundreds of incidents, often filmed and shared by Russian units, and described the attacks as a “drone safari” aimed at driving people out of the region. (New York Times, 10.28.25)
• Russian commanders have been torturing and executing their own soldiers in Ukraine since the first year of the full-scale invasion, according to an investigation by the exiled news outlet Vyorstka. Most of the alleged perpetrators are platoon or battalion commanders and in some cases divisional officers, with an average age just over 40. (MT/AFP, 10.30.25)
• For the first time since the invasion began, Ukraine has transferred a captured Russian soldier to Lithuania for prosecution on war crimes charges. The Russian military police officer was detained near Robotyne and is accused of participating in torture and inhumane treatment of civilians and prisoners of war. Lithuania’s prosecutor charged him under national and international law; he faces life imprisonment if convicted. (RBC.ua, 10.31.25)
• President Putin has proposed a short “micro-ceasefire” of two to six hours in Pokrovsk to allow journalists access, ISW reported. Ukrainian and ISW analysts say Russian claims of encirclement in Pokrovsk are unfounded and that the proposed ceasefire is a staged media ploy to shift blame for stalled peace efforts onto Kyiv. (ISW, 10.29.25)
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced a temporary “micro-ceasefire” near Kupyansk and Pokrovsk to allow journalists access, claiming Ukrainian forces have been encircled there. The five-to-six-hour ceasefire would depend on security guarantees, but ISW assesses that Russian forces have not actually surrounded Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, or Myrnohrad. (ISW, 10.30.25)
• Russia has stepped up drone and missile attacks targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ahead of winter, aiming to undermine the country’s power grid and provoke mass displacement. Fast, AI-guided Shahed drones are striking power plants and substations in coordinated waves, overwhelming Ukraine’s improved air defenses. Several thermal power plants and half of Ukraine’s gas production have recently been knocked offline, forcing the country to spend almost $2 billion on imported gas. (The Economist, 10.28.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

Friday, Oct. 24, 2025

• On Friday, Oct. 24, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Zvirove, Novohryhorivka and Novoselivka. (RM, 10.30.25)

Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025

• On Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated Kucheriv Yar, Sukhetske and Zatyshok, and pushed back the Russian armed forces near Nikanorivka, Novyi Shakhove and in Fedorivka. The Russian armed forces advanced near Novotoretske, Volodymyrivka and Hatyshche. (RM, 10.30.25)
• Russian overnight drone and missile strikes killed four people and wounded some 20 others in Ukraine capital Kyiv and several other regions, authorities said Saturday. (MT/AFP, 10.25.25)

Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025

• On Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Odradne, Vyshneve and Zlahoda. (RM, 10.30.25)
• Ukraine’s general staff on Sunday acknowledged that some 200 Russian troops had entered Pokrovsk. (RFE/RL, 10.27.25)
• Vladimir Putin said during his Oct. 26 visit to the Joint Force command post: “The recent successes in encircling the Krasnoarmeysk and Dimitrov agglomeration and Kupyansk, as well as combat outcomes in other directions, achieved by our Armed Forces, are the result of the heroic actions of our soldiers.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.26.25.)
• On Sunday, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the Russian armed forces' chief of staff, told President Vladimir Putin that the Kremlin's forces had encircled close to 5,500 Ukrainian troops in the Pokrovsk direction and another 5,000 near Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region to the north. (Washington Post, 10.29.25)
• An overnight Russian drone attack on Kyiv killed three people and wounded dozens, the mayor of the Ukrainian capital said on Sunday. (MT/AFP, 10.26.25)

Monday, Oct. 27, 2025

• On Monday, Oct. 27, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Armed Forces of Ukraine pushed back the Russian armed forces near Kucheriv Yar and Novyi Shakhove. The Russian armed forces advanced near Zvirove and Stepova Novosilka. (RM, 10.30.25)
• The Russian military is reportedly shifting focus from offensive operations near Dobropillya to reinforce efforts around Pokrovsk. (ISW, 10.27.25)
• Ukrainian forces struck the Belgorod Reservoir dam along the Siverskyi Donets River southeast of Belgorod City, reportedly flooding Russian positions and reducing their combat capabilities in border areas northeast of Kharkiv (ISW, 10.27.25)
• A large overnight drone strike on Oct. 27 hit several regions in western Russia, including the Moscow area, according to Russian officials Russia's Defense Ministry said Monday it had downed 193 Ukrainian drones overnight, with local authorities reporting that one person was killed in the attack. (MT/AFP, 10.27.25, RFE/RL, 10.27.25)

Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025

• On Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Pokrovsk, near Chervonyi Lyman and Pryvillia. (RM, 10.30.25)
• Russia’s main offensive effort has remained focused on the agglomeration of Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad, two mining towns with a prewar population of about 100,000 people. The situation markedly deteriorated around Pokrovsk in the past weeks as small groups of Russian units started seeping through thinly manned Ukrainian defenses and entered the town. (Financial Times, 10.28.25)
  • Ukraine's defenders say the front line is fluid in the Pokrovsk area but deny Russian claims that thousands of Ukrainian troops have been encircled. (Financial Times, 10.28.25, Washington Post, 10.28.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly ordered his forces to seize the key eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk by mid-November. (ISW, 10.28.25)
• Russian forces have increasingly relied on Soviet-era missile technology, including modified S-200 surface-to-air missiles, to conduct recent strikes against Ukraine in what analysts describe as a demonstration of Moscow’s ability to adapt and send deterrence signals to the West. (Wall Street Journal, 10.28.25)
• British spy chief Richard Moore estimated last month that Moscow’s forces may have suffered up to 1mn casualties, including about 250,000 killed since the start of the invasion. (Financial Times, 10.28.25)

Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025

• On Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Armed Forces of Ukraine drove the Russian armed forces back near Nove Shakhove. the Russian armed forces advanced near Pokrovsk, Poltavka, Volodymyrivka and Novomykolaivka. (RM, 10.30.25)
• In the past week, Oct. 21–28, 2025, Russia has gained 39 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, up slightly from the previous week’s gain of 33 square miles, according to the Oct. 29 issue of The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In the past four weeks (Sept. 30–Oct. 28, 2025), Russian forces gained 154 square miles of Ukrainian territory, an increase over the 146 square miles these forces gained during the previous four-week period (Sept. 2–30, 2025). Since Jan. 1, 2025, average Russian monthly gains have been 168 square miles. As of Oct. 21, 2025, Russia controls 19% of Ukraine’s territory—an area roughly equivalent to the U.S. state of Ohio—including the 7% it controlled prior to its Feb. 24, 2022, full invasion. (RM, 10.30.25)
• DeepState’s maps showed Russian forces moving in two pincer movements from the center of Pokrovsk and villages to the northeast with only a few miles separating the military advances, New York Times reported on Oct. 29. DeepState, a reputable Ukrainian OSINT group, reported a “massive infiltration” of this Donetsk region city by the Russian forces, warning on Oct. 29 that “the situation in Pokrovsk is on the verge of [being] critical.” The group put the number of Russians in Pokrovsk at “several hundred” in its Oct. 29 report. If captured, Pokrovsk would be the largest city to be taken by Russian forces since Bakhmut in May 2023, according to The Washington Post. Its fall will be a serious setback, as the city is a junction for road and railway lines and would bring Russian forces closer to the Donetsk region cities of Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka, according to the Post. (RM, 10.29.25) See the DeepState’s map of fighting in the Pokrovsk area, accessed at 3.00 pm East Coast time on Oct. 31 below.
  • "We're holding the city [of Pokrovsk] for now. It's stable chaos in there," said a Ukrainian major, whose brigade was "stationed in and around the Pokrovsk front," adding that there were no plans to retreat. The officer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk publicly, said that somewhere between "200 to 250" Russian forces "had accumulated on the south side" of the city. "The current combat situation is street fighting." (Washington Post, 10.29.25)
• Ukrainian military sources report that Russian forces are intensifying infiltration missions and concentrating troops around the Pokrovsk pocket. Despite Russia amassing 11,000 personnel for the offensive, heavy rains hamper their logistics. (ISW, 10.30.25)
• Russian forces continue to advance in southern Pokrovsk and northeastern Myrnohrad, but are unlikely to fully collapse Ukrainian defenses soon. Geolocated imagery and battlefield reports indicate contested “gray zones” inside Pokrovsk, with both Ukrainian and Russian units holding positions. (ISW, 10.29.25)
• Russian forces entered Kupiansk in recent days, with Zelenskyy on Wednesday saying the situation “remains difficult.” The foothold on the western side of the Oskil river gives Russian forces another launch pad from which to attack the remaining part of the Donbas region (Financial Times, 10.31.25)
• Russian forces launched over 700 missiles and drones—including 653 drones (400 Shahed-type) and more than 50 missiles—at Ukraine overnight Oct. 29-30. Ukraine’s Air Force said it shot down 623 targets, including 592 drones and 31 missiles. Strikes hit 20 locations, damaging energy and residential infrastructure in multiple regions and injuring five children in Zaporizhzhia. This was the third large-scale attack on DTEK thermal power plants in October. (ISW, 10.30.25)
• At least two Russian oil refineries and a major petrochemical plant were hit in overnight Ukrainian drone strikes, according to officials and media on Wednesday. Rosaviatsia said 13 airports, including three in Moscow and some in Crimea, paused operations for security checks. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed air defenses intercepted 100 Ukrainian drones, mostly over the Bryansk region, and downed five in Crimea. (MT/AFP, 10.29.25)

Thursday, Oct. 30, 2025

• On Thursday, Oct. 30, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Pokrovsk, Uspenivka, Novomykolaivka and near Novohryhorivka. (RM, 10.30.25)
• Though Moscow portrays the city of Pokrovsk as nearly encircled, Ukrainian commanders and analysts say these claims are exaggerated, and defenders are still holding out. President Zelenskyy described the situation as "stable chaos," highlighting critical logistics challenges for Ukrainian forces. (New York Times, 10.30.25, Washington Post, 10.30.25)
• Russian strikes on Ukraine overnight killed one person, wounded 17 and caused emergency power outages across the country, Ukrainian authorities said Thursday. Russia hit energy infrastructure across Ukraine in the largest attack in more than a month. Moscow forces used more than 650 drones and over 50 missiles during the strike, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a post on Telegram on Thursday. Two people were killed and dozens injured in the southern city of Zaporizhzhia where a dormitory was hit, he said. (Bloomberg, 10.30.25, (MT/AFP, 10.30.25)

Friday, Oct. 31, 2025

• A fierce battle is ongoing for the city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, with Russian forces concentrating 170,000 troops in the area, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Friday. Zelenskyy assured there is no encirclement and Ukrainian forces remain in control. Ukrainian analysts warn the city’s defense requires larger, coordinated units. (Korrespondent.net, 10.31.25)
• Russian missile and drone strikes across Ukraine have killed at least six people and injured dozens of others, including children. Russia has carried out a series of strikes on the northeastern Ukrainian city of Sumy, injuring at least 11 people, including four children, according to Ukraine's Emergency Services. (RFE/RL, 10.31.25,(RFE/RL, 10.31.25)
• “The Ukrainian Navy confirmed strikes on the Oryol Thermal Power Plant in western Russia last night, saying they were carried out with cruise missiles. Presumably, the Neptune cruise missiles." (Status-6 X-Account, 10.31.25)
• “The "Vladimirskaya" 750kV electrical substation located in Vladimir Oblast, western Russia, [is] on fire following Ukrainian strikes last night. This is one of the largest and most powerful electrical infrastructure facilities in the region. (Status-6 X-Account, 10.31.25)
• In 2025, Ukrainian forces have intensified strikes on Russian military and energy infrastructure, hitting 160 oil sites—including six refineries—causing a 20% domestic fuel shortage and disabling 37% of Russia’s refining capacity. Security chief Vasyl Maliuk called oil assets a legitimate target, stressing their revenue funds 90% of Russia’s defense budget. Ukrainian special services also destroyed a Russian Oreshnik ballistic missile at Russia’s Kapustin Yar test site in a covert operation, though intelligence warns up to six such missiles could be built annually, according to Malyuk. In Russia’s Rostov region, Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces, aided by local resistance, destroyed a Buk-M3 air defense system and Nebo-U radar, inflicting major losses. Furthermore, Ukraine has eliminated 48% of Russia’s “Pantsir” air defense systems this year. (Korrespondent.net, 10.31.25, Korrespondent.net, 10.31.25, RBC.ua, 10.31.25, Ukrainska Pravda, 10.31.25)
• Ukraine’s military gamifies drone warfare through a national point system: 40 points are awarded for destroying a Russian tank, 12 for killing a soldier, 15 for wounding a Russian drone pilot, and 120 for capturing a Russian alive with a drone. Drone teams have used points to order over 80,000 drones and electronic systems worth $96 million. In May, one brigade earned 25,000 points by targeting 2,221 Russian soldiers and exchanged their points for 600 “vampire” kamikaze drones. (New York Times, 10.31.25)

Military aid to Ukraine 

• Tomahawk missiles after assessing that it would not negatively impact US stockpiles, leaving the final political decision in President Donald Trump’s hands, according to three US and European officials familiar with the matter. The Joint Staff informed the White House of its assessment earlier this month, just before Trump met with Zelensky who has been pushing for the missiles to more effectively target oil and energy facilities deep inside Russia. (CNN, 10.31.25)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine and Sweden have agreed to localize production of Swedish Gripen fighter jets in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported Tuesday. Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian pilot training for the Gripen lasts six months, and that the aircraft requires only a small maintenance team. He also confirmed that Sweden is expected to begin delivering its promised 150 Gripens to Ukraine in early 2026 and revealed ongoing talks with France to supply Rafale fighter jets as well. (ISW, 10.28.25)
• A confidential summit of the “Coalition of the Willing,” comprising representatives from 35 countries, will be held in Madrid on Nov. 4 to discuss increased aid and security guarantees for Ukraine, Korrespondent.net reported Friday. Organized by Spain’s foreign ministry, the closed-door meeting will address military, financial, and political support as well as further pressure on Russia. Participants are barred from using phones or publicly sharing details. (Korrespondent.net, 10.31.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The Russian authorities are discussing an increase in duties on strong alcohol from "unfriendly" countries from January 1, 2026, RBC writes with reference to three sources on the market. (MT/AFP, 10.31.25) 

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025

• Russian President Vladimir Putin's special envoy for investment and economic cooperation said he believes the United States, Ukraine, and Russia are close to a diplomatic solution to end the war in Ukraine. "I believe Russia and the U.S. and Ukraine are actually quite close to a diplomatic solution,” Kirill Dmitriev said. (RFE/RL, 10.25.25)
  • Russian stocks plunged on Monday following Kremlin economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev's trip to the United States. The MOEX index, which lost 6.5% last week, fell another 3.2% by 2:50 p.m. Moscow time to 2,457.87 points, its lowest level since December 2024. (MT/AFP, 10.27.25)

Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025

• U.S. President Donald Trump said he is not going "to be wasting my time” by meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin if the Kremlin leader is not ready to make a deal to end his war on Ukraine. "You have to know that we're going to make a deal. I'm not going to be wasting my time," Trump told reporters on Air Force One during a stop in Doha en route to Malaysia, where he kicks off an Asia trip on Oct. 26. "I've always had a great relationship with Vladimir Putin, but this has been very disappointing. I thought this would have gotten done before peace in the Middle East," he added. (RFE/RL, 10.26.25)
• The State Department’s intelligence bureau dissented from CIA assessments suggesting Vladimir Putin was ready to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war, The Wall Street Journal reported. The Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) concluded Putin remains committed to maximalist goals and is unlikely to support a peace deal, contradicting more optimistic CIA reports. The State Department then reorganized its intelligence division, firing several Russia analysts, amid new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil. (Wall Street Journal, 10.26.25)

Monday, Oct. 27, 2025

• U.S. President Donald Trump’s position on achieving lasting peace in Ukraine has “radically” changed under European influence since his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Sunday. Lavrov recalled Trump’s pledge after the August summit in Alaska to pursue a “long-term” peace rather than a short-term ceasefire. This month, Trump canceled a planned follow-up meeting with Putin in Budapest and urged both Kyiv and Moscow to “make a deal.” “When people now say ‘nothing but a ceasefire, immediate ceasefire, and then history will judge,’ it's a very radical change.” In an interview, Lavrov said Putin had told Trump in Alaska that Russia would agree to U.S. peace proposals, but “no direct answer followed.” (MT/AFP, 10.27.25, Financial Times, 10.31.25)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Russia’s territorial claims in Ukraine as constitutional and referenced Odesa as a historical “Russian” city, signaling that Moscow’s ambitions may extend beyond the currently occupied regions. (ISW, 10.27.25)

Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025

• U.S. intelligence agencies see no indication that Russia is ready to compromise on Ukraine, with recent assessments warning that President Vladimir Putin remains determined to continue the war and secure more Ukrainian territory. The analysis, shared with Congress this month, describes Putin as more resolute than ever, despite heavy troop losses and mounting economic pressure. The U.S. imposed new sanctions on Russia’s top oil companies last week, reflecting President Trump’s growing frustration over Moscow’s unwillingness to negotiate. (NBC News, 10.28.25)

Friday, Oct. 31, 2025

• The U.S. cancelled President Donald Trump’s planned Budapest summit with Vladimir Putin after a Russian memo to Washington holding firm to hardline demands on Ukraine was swiftly followed by a tense call between the two countries’ top diplomats, said people familiar with the matter. Earlier this month, Trump and Putin agreed over the phone to meet in the Hungarian capital. Days later, Russia’s foreign ministry sent a memo to Washington underlining the same demands to address what Putin calls the “root causes” of his three-and-a-half-year invasion, three people familiar with the matter said.⁶ These include territorial concessions, a steep reduction of Ukraine’s armed forces and guarantees it will never join Nato. The U.S. then cancelled the summit following a call between Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. secretary of state Marco Rubio, after which Rubio told Trump that Moscow was showing no willingness to negotiate, said one of the people familiar with the matter. Trump “was not impressed with their position,” said another person familiar with the matter. (Financial Times, 10.31.25)
• Ukraine and its allies are drafting a single unified peace plan for the war with Russia, rather than competing proposals, President Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak said Friday. Yermak emphasized that the final document will reflect Ukraine's interests, with the U.S., EU, and other partners working in close coordination. He noted that all parties agree a ceasefire along current lines is the precondition for talks. A new round of security adviser meetings will take place next week to coordinate positions. (RBC.ua, 10.31.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025

• A group of men at the center of an arson attack backed by Russia’s Wagner Group targeting a London warehouse that supplied goods to Ukraine were sentenced to as long as 17 years in jail. (Bloomberg, 10.25.25)

Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025

• Germany is seeking to expand its military by reintroducing compulsory service, The Washington Post reports. A proposed law would require all 18-year-old men to state their willingness to serve for six months, possibly by lottery, with a parliamentary vote expected by November’s end. The plan responds to security fears after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and U.S. NATO demands. While most Germans support national service, 63% of young people oppose compulsory enlistment, and 3,000 have already filed conscientious objections. (Washington Post, 10.28.25)
• European authorities have reported recent incidents involving unidentified drones near airports in Spain and a military base in Estonia, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported Tuesday. Unidentified drones forced temporary closure of Alicante’s Miguel Hernández Airport on Oct. 27 and Palma de Mallorca Airport on Oct. 19. In Estonia, authorities detected two drones near the Camp Reedo military base—home to Estonian and U.S. forces—on Oct. 17, shooting down one, though wreckage was not recovered. Investigations are ongoing, and no actors have been identified as responsible. (ISW, 10.28.25)

Thursday, Oct. 30, 2025

• Polish MiG-29 fighters intercepted a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea on Oct. 30, marking the second such interception in three days. In both incidents, the Russian planes flew without flight plans or active transponders but did not enter Polish airspace. (ISW, 10.30.25)
• The U.S. will withdraw about 700 troops from Eastern Europe as the Trump administration shifts military focus to Asia and Latin America. The 101st Airborne Division’s 2nd Infantry Brigade, stationed in Germany, Romania, and Poland, will not be replaced, though around 1,000 U.S. troops will stay in Romania. (NYT, 10.29.25)
• The European Commission is drafting proposals for an EU-wide system to help member states move tanks and heavy military equipment across the continent in the event of war. (Financial Times, 10.30.25)
• The FBI has strongly opposed a House bill that would give Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard expanded authority over counterintelligence operations traditionally led by the bureau. (New York Times, 10.30.25)

Friday, Oct. 31, 2025

• Denmark is expanding its military presence in Greenland, viewing Russia—with its growing Arctic military capabilities—as the main threat to the region, not the U.S. A new defense package includes more patrol ships, icebreakers, and surveillance systems. (Bloomberg, 10.31.25)
  • Authorities in Russia’s republic of Karelia say they are forming volunteer militias to help defend the country’s border with Finland following Helsinki’s announcement of large-scale military exercises near Russian territory. (MT/AFP, 10.31.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Ukraine and its allies have called on Donald Trump to pressure Xi Jinping over China’s support for Russia. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has urged Donald Trump to press China to end its support for Russia in its war against Ukraine when the U.S. President meets his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, during a tour of Asia this week. (RFE/RL, 10.28.25, (Bloomberg, 10.29.25)
• President Trump avoided pressing China’s Xi Jinping to curb Russian oil imports during their meeting, weakening the impact of new U.S. sanctions targeting Russian energy revenue. Without U.S. pressure, China—Russia’s top crude buyer—will likely keep funding Putin’s war effort, undermining Western attempts to isolate Moscow. Experts warn that unless the U.S. enforces sanctions on China and other buyers, Russia’s oil exports will remain a key financial lifeline. U.S. President Donald Trump, following a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, said that China would help the United States in its efforts to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. "We will work together to have some result. We agreed that the parties are at an impasse. And sometimes you have to let them fight, apparently. Madness. But he [China] will help us and we will work together on Ukraine," Trump told reporters. (Bloomberg, 10.31.25, MT/AFP, 10.30.25) 

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025

• Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed the test of a new nuclear-powered cruise missile that his military said was capable of traveling for at least 14,000 kilometers (8,700 miles). Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov said the Burevestnik was tested on Oct. 21, according to footage of a meeting with military commanders posted on the Kremlin’s Telegram channel. The weapon, which flew for about 15 hours, is capable of evading missile-defense networks, he said. (Bloomberg, 10.26.25)
  • Putin said during his Oct. 26 visit to the Joint Force command post: "Regarding the exercise of the strategic offensive forces, we have once again confirmed the reliability of Russia’s nuclear shield. The strategic forces are fully capable of ensuring the national security of the Russian Federation and the Union State; we have already spoken on this matter. This is a fact well-known to all specialists in the military field across the globe. The so-called modernity of our Armed Forces, or rather of the nuclear deterrence forces, is at the very highest level. One can, without exaggeration, claim that it is at least on a higher level than that of all other nuclear states." (Kremlin.ru, 10.26.25.)
  • Putin said during his Oct. 26 visit to the Joint Force command post: “"[With regard to] the test of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered unlimited-range cruise missile. I have received a report from the industry and I am aware of the assessments made by the Ministry of Defense—this is indeed a unique weapon that no other country possesses. I clearly remember that when we announced the development of this weapon, even very high-level, top-class specialists told me the goal was worthy and respectable but unattainable in the near historical perspective. Once again—that was the view of those high-class experts. And now the decisive tests have been completed. Obviously, substantial work has to be done in order to place this weapon on combat duty, and all regulations must be completed. Nevertheless, as I understand it, the key objectives have been achieved, and I would like to hear the opinion of the Chief of the General Staff… we will need to determine which class of weapons this new system belongs to, identify possible modes of employment, and begin preparing the infrastructure to base it in our Armed Forces." (Kremlin.ru, 10.26.25.)
  • Gerasimov said during Putin’s Oct. 26 visit to the Joint Force command post: “As part of the strategic nuclear force training exercise, combat training launches of Yars and Sineva intercontinental ballistic missiles and two Kh-102 air-launched cruise missiles were carried out, with all planned objectives achieved… Comrade Supreme Commander-in-Chief, such a test [of Burevestnik] was conducted on Oct. 21. Unlike previous trials, this one featured a many-hour flight, with the missile covering 14,000 kilometers—and that is not the limit... it uses nuclear propulsion. Burevestnik’s technical characteristics generally allow for its use with assured accuracy against highly protected targets at any range. During the flight, the missile completed all prescribed vertical and horizontal manoeuvres, showcasing a high capability to evade missile-defense and air-defense systems." (Kremlin.ru, 10.26.25.)
    • Russia continues to issue explicit nuclear threats intended to deter U.S. pressure and support for Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported Saturday. On Oct. 26, Putin highlighted recent nuclear drills and claimed that Russia’s strategic forces surpass those of any other nuclear state, assuring “full security” for Russia and its union with Belarus. Putin and Gerasimov also touted a test of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile, which they described as having unlimited range and “guaranteed accuracy.” These statements are seen as part of an ongoing Kremlin nuclear saber-rattling campaign to extract concessions from the West. (ISW, 10.26.25)

Monday, Oct. 27, 2025

• U.S. President Donald Trump warned Russia that the United States has “the world’s greatest nuclear submarine” stationed off Russian shores, responding to Moscow’s announcement of a successful test of its nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump downplayed Russia’s claims of a missile with over 8,000 miles range, stating, “We don’t need to go 8,000 miles.” He urged President Putin to focus on ending the Ukraine war rather than testing missiles and teased the possibility of further sanctions against Russia. (Fox News, 10.27.25)⁷

Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025

• Western missile experts noted that the Burevestnik subsonic missile’s practicality and survivability are questionable, with modern air defenses increasingly able to intercept such projectiles, and its radioactive signature making it easier to detect. Despite the test’s political messaging, analysts believe the Burevestnik’s military significance is limited compared to more advanced hypersonic weapons now in development. (Wall Street Journal, 10.28.25)

Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025

• President Vladimir Putin announced Wednesday that Russia had successfully tested its Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater drone, touting it as unmatched in speed and depth and claiming it is “impossible to intercept.” The Poseidon, believed capable of traveling up to 100 knots (115 mph), is designed to cause devastating coastal tsunamis. Putin also said Russia’s nuclear-capable Burevestnik missile and Sarmat intercontinental missile are moving toward deployment, though the Sarmat’s reliability remains unproven. (New York Times, 10.29.25, MT/AFP, 10.29.25, RFE/RL, 10.29.25)⁸
  • During a visit to a Russian military hospital, President Vladimir Putin highlighted what he described as recent technological breakthroughs in Russia’s nuclear weapons and energy programs. Putin also announced a major achievement: the successful test of the nuclear-powered Poseidon unmanned underwater drone, which is even more compact than the Burevestnik cruise missile and “significantly more powerful” than Russia’s Sarmat intercontinental missile. The Poseidon, he claimed, operates at unmatched underwater speeds and depths with no existing interception methods. (Kremlin.ru, 10.29.25)
• The very possibility of delivering the "Oreshnik" missile system to another country is terrifying the West, according to Aleksey Zhuravlyov, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense. “It’s not about moving the "Oreshnik" [MRBM] closer to Europe. In fact, Belarusian Minsk is no closer to Europe than Russia’s Kaliningrad, where, as is well known, our nuclear deterrence forces are stationed,” Zhuravlev explained in an interview to News.ru. Rather “the point is simply about delivering "Oreshnik," which has frightened Western politicians and the media so much, to another country—even if it’s to our closest ally and friend,” said Zhuravlyov who called the U.S. “our enemy.” “This means that deliveries could also be made, for example, to Venezuela or to Cuba—countries that are on another continent, right next to our main geopolitical adversary, who, without a doubt, orchestrates this entire European Russophobic orchestra. 'Oreshnik' is by no means the only weapon that can be dangerous for our enemy; we possess the full range. And if necessary, we will use what is needed,” Zhuravlyov explained. (News.ru, 10.29.25, ISW, 10.29.25) Russia’s parliament takes orders from Kremlin on what to say and how to vote on major issues, such as nuclear posture. Thus, it is difficult to imagine that Zhuravlyov has voiced these threats without the presidential staff’s approval/guidance on nuclear saber-rattling that is unlikely to represent any real intention to send Russian nuclear weapons to Cuba or Venezuela (to say less of these two countries’ intentions in that sphere). That said, Zhuravlev may have intended to appear more threatening than, say, chair of the defense committee, Andrei Kartopolov of the United Russia party. After all, Zhuravlev represents the misnamed Liberal-Democratic Party of Russia, which pretends to represent an ultranationalist wing in the so-called ‘systemic opposition’ that in reality toes the Kremlin’s line on all major issues.
• Belarus will put Russia’s Oreshnik missile system on combat duty in December 2025, as Moscow and Minsk increase nuclear signaling toward Europe. Kremlin officials cited “Russophobic” statements from EU states as justification, while analysts assessed the Oreshnik deployment is meant to weaken Western resolve to aid Ukraine. (ISW, 10.29.25)

Thursday, Oct. 30, 2025

• U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered the immediate resumption of nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, the Financial Times reported Thursday. Trump made the announcement ahead of a summit with China’s Xi Jinping, stating on Truth Social that testing will begin immediately. It is unclear whether this means explosive nuclear warhead tests, which the U.S. has not conducted since 1992, or other delivery system trials. (Financial Times, 10.30.25)
  • Trump announced on Truth Social, “The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country. This was accomplished, including a complete update and renovation of existing weapons, during my First Term in office.” Warning that “Russia is second, and China is a distant third, but will be even within 5 years,” Trump added, “I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately.” (Truth Social, 10.30.25)
  • The Kremlin said Thursday that Russia has not recently conducted nuclear weapons tests but would do so if the United States broke the global moratorium Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized that recent Russian drone and missile tests did not involve nuclear detonations, responding to President Trump’s order for renewed U.S. nuclear weapons testing. Peskov said the Russian government hoped Trump was properly briefed, and warned Moscow would "respond in kind" if others resumed nuclear testing. (New York Times, 10.30.25)
  • The United Nations warned against any resumption of nuclear testing after President Trump announced plans to restart U.S. nuclear tests, ending a 33-year moratorium. UN officials said nuclear testing should “never be permitted,” amid concerns Trump’s move could provoke similar actions from Russia, China, or North Korea and raise the risk of nuclear escalation globally. (Bloomberg, 10.30.25)

Friday, Oct. 31, 2025

• President Trump’s announcement that the U.S. would resume nuclear testing contained several factual errors and left U.S. agencies scrambling for clarification. Contrary to Trump’s claim, Russia retains the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, with 5,500 warheads to America’s 5,200. The U.S. last tested a nuclear weapon in 1992, and modernization of the U.S. arsenal is ongoing. Experts warn that Trump’s order could have significant global ramifications, though no technical need for renewed testing has been cited. (Axios, 10.31.25)
  • Russia has in recent months attacked Ukraine with a cruise missile whose secret development prompted Donald Trump to abandon a nuclear arms control pact with Moscow in his first term as U.S. president, Ukraine's foreign minister said. Andrii Sybiha's comments are the first confirmation that Russia has used the ground-launched 9M729 missile in combat - in Ukraine or elsewhere. The 9M729 led the United States to quit the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019. Washington said the missile was in breach of the treaty and could fly far beyond its limit of 500 km (310 miles) although Russia denied this. (Reuters, 10.31.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Russia has resumed military flights to its Khmeimim airbase in Syria after a six-month pause, following talks in Moscow with Syria’s new leader, Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani), Istories reported Thursday. Russia lost control of its bases after Bashar al-Assad was ousted in December 2024. Recent negotiations focused on reestablishing Russian operations, with Moscow offering financial aid to Syria’s new authorities while refusing to hand over Assad. (Istories, 10.30.25)

Cyber security/AI: 

• Russian authorities have seized control of Usersbox, the country’s most popular Telegram bot for accessing personal data, and detained its owner following a search of his apartment, Istories reported Friday. The bot, which previously published border-crossing data from the FSB’s “Kordon 2023” database, is now offline. The raid comes amid a broader crackdown on data leaks, with new laws signed in late 2024 introducing penalties of up to 10 years in prison for illegal use of personal data. (Istories, 10.31.25)
  • Russian lawmakers continue to rely on Telegram as their main channel of communication with the public despite a Kremlin directive urging them to switch to the state-backed messenger app Max, according to a study cited by the Kommersant business daily on Friday. (MT/AFP, 10.31.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025 

• The latest U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, strike at the core of the Kremlin’s war economy, drawing immediate condemnation from President Putin. The joint U.S.–EU actions target oil, Russia’s main revenue source, and aim to hinder Moscow’s ability to fund its war in Ukraine. The measures increase pressure on buyers in India and China, complicate logistics and payments, and force Russian companies to offer bigger discounts. Oil prices surged on news of the sanctions, which come as Russia’s economy faces high inflation, slowing growth, and a budget deficit. Although the new penalties will further strain Russia’s finances, analysts say they are unlikely to prompt a change in Putin’s war aims. (Wall Street Journal, 10.23.25)
• President Trump will enforce tough new U.S. oil sanctions on Russia to pressure President Putin into negotiating an end to the Ukraine war, U.S. NATO envoy Matthew Whitaker said. The U.S. recently blacklisted Russia’s major oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, aiming to cut Kremlin war funding; enforcement details remain under scrutiny. (Bloomberg, 10.28.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin called new U.S. oil sanctions–targeting Rosneft and Lukoil–“an unfriendly act” and warned of a “very serious” response if Kyiv is armed with long-range American missiles. Despite admitting the sanctions would hurt Russia’s economy, Putin said Moscow would make no concessions under pressure. The new U.S. and European Union sanctions come as Russia’s oil and gas revenues are projected to fall and economic growth drops to 1% for 2025. Analysts say the measures may hurt key oil companies, but are unlikely to shift Moscow’s war aims, with Russian officials vowing to evade restrictions and Ukraine welcoming the step while calling for more Western weapons. (New York Times, 10.23.25)

Friday, Oct. 24, 2025

• New U.S. sanctions on Russia’s biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, mark the Trump administration’s strongest economic move yet against Moscow. Russia exports about 5 million barrels of oil per day, with China and India driving demand. The new sanctions threaten “secondary sanctions” against any financial institution or refiner dealing with sanctioned Russian companies, forcing buyers to choose between Russian crude and access to Western capital markets. Russia’s energy revenues dropped by 20% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, while Brent crude oil prices have already risen 9% in reaction. Analysts believe the sanctions will reduce Putin’s war chest but warn oil prices could climb further—above $70 per barrel—if disruptions exceed 2 million barrels per day. (Financial Times via PressReader, 10.24.25)

Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025

• Finland’s Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen touted recent sanctions by the U.S. and European Union targeting Russia’s energy sector, but said more pressure is needed if allies are to force Moscow to end its war in Ukraine (Bloomberg, 10.25.25)

Monday, Oct. 27, 2025

• The price of a key Russian oil grade has plunged after Western sanctions prompted Chinese refiners to cancel some purchases. Spot sales of ESPO, which ships from Russia’s Far East, were offered at a 50-cent-a-barrel discount to the ICE Brent benchmark this week. (Bloomberg, 10.27.25)
• Washington has floated a six-month deadline for Berlin to sort out the ownership limbo affecting the German assets of Russian oil major Rosneft PJSC. (Bloomberg, 10.27.25)
• UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the prospects for Ukraine are improving after President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Russian oil. (Bloomberg, 10.27.25)
• Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he’ll meet U.S. President Donald Trump to try to shield Hungary from the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil. (Bloomberg, 10.27.25)

Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025

• U.S. President Donald Trump will follow through and enforce harsh new oil sanctions on Russia to pressure Vladimir Putin into negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war, the U.S. ambassador to NATO said. “We have implemented those sanctions. We plan to enforce them,” Matthew Whitaker, the U.S. permanent representative to the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance said in an interview on Bloomberg TV on Tuesday. (Bloomberg, 10.28.25)
• Russia’s second-largest oil producer Lukoil has announced plans to sell its international assets, days after the U.S. imposed sanctions on the company to pressure Moscow into agreeing to a ceasefire in Ukraine. The company, which has significant assets across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, said it has begun considering bids from potential buyers. Lukoil’s move is part of compliance with a U.S. Treasury license to wind down international transactions by Nov. 21, after which any deals involving Lukoil will be considered sanctions violations. The sale of European assets, including Bulgaria’s sole refinery, will require additional government approvals. (Financial Times, 10.28.25)
• India’s state-run refiners are considering whether they can continue to take some discounted Russian oil cargoes by leaning on small suppliers instead of energy giants Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, both blacklisted by the U.S. last week. (Bloomberg, 10.28.25)
• Europe’s imports of diesel and jet fuel are on course for a record-breaking month, as traders gear up for the winter and a clampdown on petroleum products made with Russian crude. Almost 1.9 million barrels of supplies from exporters including India, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. arrived in European Union ports during Oct. 1–20, figures from Kpler compiled by Bloomberg show. (Bloomberg, 10.28.25)
• A network of companies in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia supplied fuel to tankers belonging to Russia’s “shadow fleet” which Moscow uses to evade Western sanctions and export oil abroad, according to an investigation by Lithuanian public broadcaster LRT. (MT/AFP, 10.28.25)
• U.S. sanctions targeting Rosneft will not affect the Russian oil giant's German subsidiaries, which were placed under state administration after Moscow invaded Ukraine, the German government told AFP on Tuesday. The economy ministry “has received assurances from the relevant U.S. authorities that the sanctions are not intended to target Rosneft's German subsidiaries,” a spokesman said. (AFP, 10.28.25)

Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025

• A tanker carrying Russian crude oil to India has turned around and gone adrift in the Baltic Sea after the United States imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. (MT/AFP, 10.29.25)
• A major Indian oil refinery co-owned by steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal’s energy joint venture received at least four shipments of Russian crude worth nearly $280 million this year that were partially transported on U.S.- and EU-sanctions-listed vessels. (Financial Times, 10.29.25)
• The U.S. and Europe aren't fully aligned in their sanctions policies. The EU has targeted over 550 vessels from Russia's shadow fleet and the U.K. around 500, measures that include freezing assets and penalizing the owners and operators of the vessels. They are also banned from European ports. The U.S. has targeted some 216 tankers.
• The U.S. will exempt the German unit of Rosneft PJSC from sanctions against the Russian oil major for six months, easing short-term supply risks while putting the onus on Berlin to sort out ownership issues. (Bloomberg, 10.29.25)
• Only about 5% of Russia's oil exports are currently settled in dollars, a sharp drop from 55% before the invasion of Ukraine, according to J.P. Morgan. The ruble now accounts for 24% and the Chinese yuan dominates at 67% of payments, putting most Russian barrels outside the U.S. financial system.
• Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic appealed to the U.S. for more time to resolve Gazprom’s control of the country’s sole refiner as the latest sanctions threaten to hit banks and card companies. (Bloomberg, 10.29.25)

Thursday, Oct. 30, 2025

• Russian refined fuel exports have fallen to their lowest level since the war began, reaching just 1.89 million barrels per day in the first 26 days of October. The decline is attributed to refinery outages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and tightening Western sanctions, particularly those targeting oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil. Naphtha exports dropped to 317,000 barrels per day and fuel oil flows fell 10%. The disruption marks a setback for Moscow’s efforts to maintain energy revenues. (Bloomberg, 10.30.25)
• India’s HPCL-Mittal Energy, a major refinery joint venture co-owned by steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal, said it has suspended purchases of Russian crude after new U.S., EU, and UK restrictions. (Financial Times, 10.30.25)
• Russian oil giant Lukoil has agreed to sell most of its international assets to Swiss commodity trader Gunvor after the U.S. imposed sanctions on the company. (Financial Times, 10.30.25)
• Oil markets are underestimating the impact of the latest round of sanctions on Russia, which are starting to affect flows, the boss of Europe’s largest refiner said. “I am more bullish than what we wrote a few days ago because I begin to realize that these sanctions will have a real impact in this market,” TotalEnergies Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne said on an earnings call on Thursday. (Bloomberg, 10.30.25)
• Russian LNG will find new buyers outside Europe after the EU’s 2027 import ban, Novatek CEO Leonid Mikhelson said, warning the move will cause “unprecedented price hikes” for European consumers. Mikhelson argued global demand for LNG will keep rising and that Russia, along with Qatar and the U.S., will remain crucial suppliers. (Bloomberg, 10.30.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Bryce McFerran, President Trump’s nominee for first vice president of the U.S. Export-Import Bank, withdrew his nomination after scrutiny of his previous executive role at a steel-trading business co-owned by Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich and family ties to individuals with Kremlin links. McFerran’s appointment raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest. He will stay on as Exim Bank’s chief banking officer until a replacement is named. (Washington Post, 10.30.25)
• Alexander Bolokhoev, a 41-year-old native of Russia’s republic of Buryatia, was rounded up by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents on Sept. 23 in Oklahoma when completing a routine delivery in his box truck. (MT/AFP, 10.27.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The Russian Central Bank will continue cutting interest rates throughout 2026, as the regulator seeks to rein in inflation without stalling economic growth, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said Tuesday. (MT/AFP, 10.28.25)
• Russia has caught up with the United Kingdom in the number of U.S.-dollar billionaires despite Western sanctions and economic isolation over the war in Ukraine, according to a new global wealth report by the research firm Altrata. Russia’s billionaire population grew 8.5% over the past year to 128 people with a combined wealth of $457 billion. Britain also counted 128 billionaires, a 4.9% rise year-on-year, with a collective wealth of $323 billion. (MT/AFP, 10.30.25)
• Consumer panic, refinery maintenance and seasonal demand have triggered a sharp rise in fuel prices in Russia since the summer, Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilyov said Sunday. Gasoline prices in Russia have risen by 11.6% since the start of the year, driven largely by Ukrainian drone attacks that have damaged oil refineries and forced shutdowns at several major facilities since August. MT/AFP, 10.27.25)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has ordered banks to install surveillance equipment that would allow authorities to monitor customer communications, the RBC news website reported Wednesday. (MT/AFP, 10.29.25)
• Russian authorities have banned the world’s largest anime and manga platform MyAnimeList over “extremist” LGBTQ+ content, state media reported Tuesday. (MT/AFP, 10.28.25)
• Russia has placed Galina Timchenko, co-founder and CEO of Meduza, on its international wanted list, the country’s Investigative Committee announced on Wednesday. The measure comes in connection with Russian authorities’ charges against Timchenko for allegedly organizing the activities of a designated “undesirable organization.” (Meduza, 10.29.25)
• A Moscow court has ordered the arrest in absentia of anti-war Russian pop singer Monetochka on charges of evading foreign agent obligations. (MT/AFP, 10.27.25)
• [Russia’s] country’s total fertility rate—the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime—stands at around 1.41, according to the state statistics agency Rosstat. This is below the level required for population replacement, meaning each new generation of Russian citizens is smaller than their parents’ generation. (MT/AFP, 10.30.25)
• A new Levada Center poll finds that 51% of Russians expect economic improvement in the coming months, though public optimism has declined from its peak of 64% in May 2024. Meanwhile, 28% now foresee the economy worsening—a 7-point increase since March—while 22% are uncertain, the highest since July. Younger, wealthier, less-educated respondents, Muscovites, and government supporters are most optimistic. The share of positive outlooks on both the economy and politics has slipped in recent months. (Levada, 10.30.25)
• Russians’ social sentiment has taken a sharp downturn, with the “social mood index” in October 2025 now lower than at the start of the Ukraine war, according to sociological surveys analyzed by Re:Russia. (Re:Russia, 10.29.25)
• The share of Russians identifying as Orthodox Christian has risen to 73%, recovering from a low of 65% in 2020, according to a new Levada Center poll published Tuesday. Muslims make up around 6% of respondents, while about 2% identify with other religions such as Catholicism, Protestantism, Judaism, Buddhism, or Hinduism. The proportion of atheists has dropped sharply, from 70% in 1989 to just 5% in September 2025, with another 13% saying they do not affiliate with any religion. (Levada, 10.29.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia has appointed senior civilian technocrat Vasily Osmakov as deputy defense minister, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov announced Friday at a meeting of post-Soviet republic chiefs in Kazakhstan. Osmakov previously served as first deputy minister of industry and trade. His appointment confirms earlier reports that he would replace Alexander Fomin, a career military official who oversaw Russia’s international military cooperation and participated in peace talks with Ukraine in 2022 and early 2025. (MT/AFP, 10.31.25)
• Russia’s lower-house State Duma passed a bill on Tuesday that would move the military toward a year-round conscription model starting next year amid the Kremlin’s efforts to expand manpower for its war in Ukraine (MT/AFP, 10.28.25)
• Russia’s Orenburg region has slashed one-time enlistment bonuses for men signing military contracts to the minimum legal threshold, becoming the fifth region this month to scale back financial incentives for volunteer soldiers fighting in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 10.28.25)
• Since the summer of 2024, at least one in three Russian regions has introduced payments for “assistance in recruiting citizens to sign military service contracts,” with regional budgets spending at least 2 billion rubles ($21 million) on recruiter bonuses by October 2025, according to Istories. The expenses in some regions are comparable to spending on healthcare or social benefits, and in many cases, authorities have had to cut other programs to fund the payouts. (Istories, 10.28.25)
• Kenyans have been "lured" by recruiters into fighting for Russia in Ukraine, the Kenyan Foreign Ministry said in a statement Monday. (MT/AFP, 10.27.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Nearly 1,000 women in Russia died from domestic violence in 2024, accounting for 47% of all female homicide victims—the highest proportion in 15 years, Istories reported Friday. Of the 963 women killed, 530 died at the hands of current or former partners, and 433 by other family members. Experts note that improved crime reporting may be partly responsible for the rise. The data, provided by Russia to the UN, also show a sharp increase in male homicide victims, likely linked to wartime violence. (Istories, 10.31.25)
• At least 101 Russian servicemen have been accused of killing fellow soldiers since the start of the war in Ukraine, with at least 150 victims, the investigative outlet Verstka reported Monday, citing complaints sent to the main military prosecutor’s office. Methods included shootings, torture to death, deliberate drone attacks, and sending soldiers on suicidal assaults. Most accused are commanders at the platoon, battalion, or divisional levels, including decorated officers and Heroes of Russia. Over 12,000 complaints related to such violence have been filed, but investigations are rare due to an informal ban on prosecuting field commanders. (Istories, 10.28.25)
• The death toll from a blast at a military factory in central Russia’s Chelyabinsk region earlier this month has risen to 23, authorities said Wednesday after completing search and rescue operations. Officials have not said what caused the Oct. 22 blast in the city of Kopeysk, but have opened an investigation into industrial safety violations. (MT/AFP, 10.29.25)
• The former anti-corruption chief of [Russia’s] Sverdlovsk region has been sentenced to 4 years in prison after being found guilty of accepting a bribe of 217 million rubles ($2.7 million), a court in Yekaterinburg said Thursday. Andrei Dyakov, who headed the regional Interior Ministry’s anti-corruption unit, was detained alongside other law enforcement officials in May 2024. (MT/AFP, 10.30.25)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Amid a buildup of American forces in the Caribbean, Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro is reaching out to Russia, China and Iran to enhance its worn military capabilities and solicit assistance, requesting defensive radars, aircraft repairs and potentially missiles, according to internal U.S. government documents obtained by The Washington Post. The requests to Moscow were made in the form of a letter meant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and was intended to be delivered during a visit to the Russian capital by a senior aide this month.(Washington Post, 10.31.25)
• India and Russia have signed a pact to jointly produce passenger aircraft, just weeks ahead of President Vladimir Putin’s visit. (Bloomberg, 10.28.25)
• Two Russia-linked figures are trying to prevent the extradition of Romanian-French mercenary Horațiu Potra, who is being held in Dubai on charges of plotting a coup in Romania, The Guardian reported Wednesday. (MT/AFP, 10.29.25)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine’s war effort will total about $360 billion by the end of 2025, with $100–110 billion required this year—roughly half of Ukraine’s GDP. The country’s public debt has doubled to 110% of GDP, and monthly U.S. financial support stopped in February. Russia faces declared defense spending of $160 billion in 2025, while sanctions and war costs fuel 8% inflation and 16.5% interest rates. A four-year European funding commitment for Ukraine would total $390 billion, or about 0.4% of non-U.S. NATO GDP per year. Europe’s economy is ten times Russia’s, with a military budget already four times larger. (The Economist, 10.30.25)
• The share of Ukrainians who believe the country will be prosperous and a member of the European Union in 10 years has risen to 56%, up from 43% in May, according to a new Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll, Korrespondent.net reported Friday. Pessimism has decreased: just 31% now expect Ukraine to be a “ruined country” by 2035. Younger respondents remain the most skeptical, with optimism highest among older Ukrainians. (Korrespondent.net, 10.31.25)
• Officials of the Odesa City Council and heads of private companies, who organized a scheme to embezzle funds, have been identified and detained. According to the investigation, the former director of the Municipal Security Department of the Odesa City Council and his first deputy, in collusion with the heads of several private companies, unjustifiably added the value-added tax amount to the contract cost while signing a contract for the supply of goods for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Such operations are exempt from VAT taxation under the law, so the officials artificially inflated the contract value and misappropriated over 1.6 million UAH of the community’s budget funds. (Antikor, 10.31.25)
• Despite overwhelming political pressure and legal hurdles, Ukraine's anti-corruption agencies have managed to bring charges against a number of top officials. High-profile cases, however, have been stalled in courts for years. Oleksandr Klymenko, Ukraine's chief anti-corruption prosecutor, argued in an interview with the Kyiv Independent that the problem must be solved urgently. Many of the major corruption cases will soon be closed unless measures are taken, he said. (Kyiv Independent, 10.30.25)
• In Poltava region, law enforcement officers are facilitating the operation of a fuel scheme under the BVS brand—the fuel company BVS Retail. The founders of the company, Stanislav and Viktor Batrachenko, along with Serhiy Samikov and the former regional prosecutor Anton Stolitniy, have allegedly created an organized criminal group engaged in the embezzlement of budget funds through tender procurements for communal enterprises, supplying petroleum products at inflated prices. (Antikor, 10.31.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Hundreds of Central Asians have been killed or are missing since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to the I Want To Live project, which regularly updates its list. That includes over 400 Tajiks, nearly 300 Kazakhs, over 100 Uzbeks, and dozens of Turkmen and Kyrgyz. Thousands of men from Central Asia are believed to have joined Russian forces in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 10.28.25)
• Lithuania closed its border with Belarus for a month as the premier denounced disruptions to air traffic caused by smugglers’ balloons as a hybrid attack. (Bloomberg, 10.29.25)
• The Kremlin said Wednesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev were working to “turn the page” in relations between Moscow and Baku. (MT/AFP, 10.29.25)
• Moldova’s parliament appointed pro-EU economist Alexandru Munteanu as prime minister, giving President Maia Sandu’s party a fresh mandate to pursue EU membership and further break away from Russia’s influence. (Reuters, 10.31.25)

Quotable and notable:

• “Lavrov is clearly tired and seems to think he has better things to do than meet or engage with the United States, whatever President Putin may want,” a person familiar with the matter said. (Financial Times, 10.31.25)

Footnotes

1. Also, earlier on Oct. 22 Putin oversaw test-launches of long-range missiles operated by all three elements of Russia’s strategic nuclear triad in a wargame.
2. Russia’s fossil fuel revenues have dropped to roughly half their late-2022 levels, as sanctions by the U.S. and EU increasingly target its main export routes. Oil and gas revenues, which make up about a quarter of the federal budget, are projected to fall to 8.65 trillion rubles ($100 billion) in 2025—the lowest since 2020 and a 22% decline from last year. (FP, 10.23.26, FT, 10.24.25, MT, 10.28.25, Bloomberg, 09.29.25)
3. The U.S. sanctions cut the Russian companies from dollar-based banking, covering firms responsible for 55% of Russian oil output and about 25% of state revenue. (Washington Post, 10.23.25)
4. Then-Soviet Russia last tested a nuclear weapon in 1990. The U.S. last tested a nuclear weapon in 1992, according to Axios. China last tested in 1996, according to IRIS. North Korea last tested a nuclear weapon in 2017.
5. Ukrainian special services reported to have destroyed an Oreshnik at Russia’s Kapustin Yar test site in a covert operation, though intelligence warns up to six such missiles could be built annually, according to SBU’s Malyuk. (Korrespondent.net, 10.31.25, Korrespondent.net, 10.31.25, RBC.ua, 10.31.25, Ukrainska Pravda, 10.31.25)
6. This information is not exactly new. According to an Oct. 23 report by CNN, it was not Vladimir Putin’s maximalist demands on Kyiv and his refusal to agree to an immediate ceasefire and Russia’s continued strikes on civilians in Ukraine that “all added up, in Donald Trump’s mind, to a clear signal that nothing really had changed.”
7. For one explainer of what Trump’s stated desire to resume nuclear test means see this Bloomberg article and this Axios article.
8. Compare these two headlines in Vedomosti, Russia’s leading business newspaper: “The Sarmat missile system has been put on combat duty,” Vedomosti, 09.01.23, and “Putin: The Sarmat missile will soon go on combat duty,” Vedomosti, 10.29.25.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Photo credit: AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster.