7 Things to Know

1. “We are in for probably the most dangerous, unpredictable and at the same time most important decade since the end of WWII,” Putin told the annual Valdai Forum on Oct. 28. “This historical period of boundless Western domination in world affairs is coming to an end. The unipolar world is being relegated into the past. We are at a historical crossroads,” the Russian leader said when explaining what factors make the current decade so dangerous in his view.
2. China is willing to deepen its relationship with Russia at all levels and any attempt to block the progress of the two nations will never succeed, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi declared in a phone conversation with his Russian counterpart less than a week after Xi Jinping won a third term in office. In his turn, Sergei Lavrov "expressed gratitude to the Chinese side for supporting Russia's position in favor of a fair settlement," according to the Russian readout, which indicates that Beijing continues to favor a peaceful resolution to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
3. Members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus after 24 hours retracted their call for the U.S. to engage in direct diplomatic talks with Russia over a Ukraine cease-fire, NYT reported. Upon receiving the original call on Oct. 24, the Biden administration acknowledged the “very thoughtful concerns” that the progressives had about the conflict in Ukraine, indicating it was the signatories’ fellow Democrats in Congress rather than in the White House that pressed for the retraction. Meanwhile, Putin again paid lip service to the need for a negotiated solution in Ukraine at the Valdai Forum this week, arguing that an “appropriate signal to Kyiv” from Washington was all that was needed to make Ukrainians come to the table.
4. Moscow and Kyiv continued to accuse each of preparing to use a dirty bomb this week, with Western leaders siding with the Ukrainian government’s claims while also accusing their Russian counterpart of relentlessly rattling his nuclear saber. While raising concerns, U.S. officials reported seeing no indication earlier this week that Russia was planning to either use a radiological weapon or to deploy a “proper” nuclear weapon (although spotting preparations for use of the former would be “almost impossible.”) While Western powers sided with Kyiv in the exchange of mutual dirty bomb accusations, Moscow appeared to have won support for its version of events from China.
5. As expected, the Nuclear Posture Review does not contain Biden’s promise of no first use, and calls Russia an “acute threat.” The Biden administration has released its National Defense Strategy-2022, which includes the nuclear posture review (NPR) and the missile defense review (MDR). The NPR reneges on Biden’s campaign promise to declare deterring or retaliating an enemy nuclear attack the “sole purpose" of nuclear weapons. “While the document ranks China as the U.S.’s main long-term defense focus, it describes Russia as an ‘acute threat’ that must be deterred,” according to FT. In its turn, the MDR says the U.S. will continue to rely on its nuclear arsenal to deter “large intercontinental-range nuclear missile threats” by China and Russia rather than try the “missile defeat approach” as it does with North Korea’s much smaller ICBM arsenal.
6. Russian nuclear forces practice massive retaliation. This week saw Russia’s strategic nuclear triad conduct its second Grom (Thunder) exercise this year to practice what the country’s defense ministry described as a massive nuclear strike in response to a nuclear strike by the adversary. The first of this year’s Grom exercises took place on Feb. 19, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The second Grom exercise took part on Oct. 26 under the personal command of Putin, and it involved Tu-95 strategic bombers, test-launching Yars ICBMs from the Plesetsk launch site and test-launching a Sineva SLBM from an SSBN in the Barents Sea. That Putin—who has not so long ago dwelled in some detail on Russia’s launch-on-warning approach and said Russians would go to heaven in a nuclear war—would command a second Grom in one year indicates that he wants the West to believe the Russian leadership thinks a nuclear war is more likely than before. In addition to Grom, Russian armed forces have also reportedly practiced limited first use in the Zapad (West) exercises.
7. Russia’s current account surplus of close to $240 billion is expected for the full year thanks to enduring high commodity prices, according to a new study by Bruegel. This Brussels-based think-tank estimates that Russia’s account surplus will total $100 billion in 2023.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 26 that Ukraine plans to “use a so-called ‘dirty bomb’ as a provocation”—the first time the Russian leader himself made the unsubstantiated allegation, which his officials have been repeating for days. Russia’s defense chief first alleged Oct. 23 that Ukraine was preparing a “provocation” involving a radioactive device, a claim that was strongly rejected by U.S., British and Ukrainian officials. Sergei Shoigu made the allegations about a “possible … ‘dirty bomb’” in phone calls with his counterparts from the U.S., Britain, France and Turkey amid soaring tensions as Moscow struggles to stem Ukrainian advances in the south. The claim has increased fears that Russia is laying the groundwork for a possible false flag operation that would escalate the war in Ukraine. (AP, 10.26.22, AP, 10.23.22, FT, 10.26.22)
  • Western officials are stepping up efforts to assess whether Russia plans to deploy radioactive weapons in Ukraine, amid concerns over the difficulty of tracking potential preparations for a “dirty bomb.” ... So far, U.S. officials have said they saw no indication that Russia was planning to use a dirty bomb or deploy a nuclear weapon and were monitoring the situation carefully. (FT, 10.26.22)
    • “It would be almost impossible to detect a dirty bomb in advance because it would just be a conventional explosion or explosive device,” said Scott Roecker of The Nuclear Threat Initiative. He said the U.S. and its allies might also struggle in the aftermath of a device being set off to piece together events. (FT, 10.26.22)
  • “These allegations are false,” a senior U.S. military official said Oct. 24 in response to Shoigu’s dirty bomb claim, adding that “we still have seen nothing to indicate that the Russians have made a decision to employ nuclear weapons.” Britain, France and the United States issued a joint statement on Oct. 23 dismissing the claim after Shoigu's calls. (RM, 10.24.22. RFE/RL, 10.24.22)
  • “We have no need to do so; there is no sense in it for us, neither political nor military,” Putin said at the annual Valdai Forum in reference to claims that Russia may use a dirty bomb in Ukraine. (RM, 10.28.22)
  • The top U.S. and Russian generals—Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Mark Milley and General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov—held talks by phone Oct. 24 for the first time since May. The two discussed the possibility raised by Moscow that Ukraine might use a "dirty bomb.” The call took place shortly after a similar conversation between Gerasimov and his British counterpart. (Reuters, 10.24.22, Reuters, 10.24.22)
  • Energoatom, Ukraine’s nuclear energy operator, claimed Oct. 25 that Russian forces have carried out secret construction work over the last week at the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and the agency “assumes” the Russians “are preparing a terrorist act using nuclear materials and radioactive waste stored at” the plant. Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister, said Oct. 24 he had invited U.N. inspectors to establish that Ukraine had “nothing to hide.” (NYT, 10.25.22, AP, 10.25.22)
    • The IAEA is sending inspectors to two locations in Ukraine to carry out a safeguards check that there are no undeclared nuclear activities and material. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said he hopes to "cool off" the nuclear saber rattling between Russia and the West by dispatching inspectors to the Ukrainian nuclear sites that Moscow claims are being used to divert radioactive materials for use in a "dirty bomb."  (WP, 10.27.22, WNN, 10.25.22)
      • See also “Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations” section below.
• “Nuclear terrorism continues to pose a threat to the United States and our Allies and Partners,” says the U.S. Defense Department’s newly-released Nuclear Posture Review-2022. “Terrorists remain interested in using WMD in attacks against U.S. interests and possibly the U.S. homeland,” according to the document. “Preventing an act of nuclear terrorism is an enduring national security requirement,” the states the document, which calls for greater investment in technical nuclear forensic tools. “Denying non-state actors’ access to nuclear materials and related technology and disrupting attempts to commit acts of nuclear terrorism” will be one of the NNSA’s priorities when it comes to implementing NPR-2022, according to the agency. (RM, 10.28.22)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea's unresolved nuclear problem is a consequence of the unwillingness to hear Pyongyang and "boorishness" toward the country, Putin said. (Interfax, 10.27.22)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Tehran on Oct. 22 denounced a call from European countries for the U.N. Security Council to investigate accusations that it provided Russia with drones—a violation of its nuclear deal—to strike battlefields and civilian targets in Ukraine. (NYT, 10.23.22)
• Iranian military advisors, most likely members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are on the ground in occupied Ukraine—and possibly Belarus—to help Russia rain down deadly Iranian kamikaze drones on Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure. According to an Israeli news report citing a Ukrainian official, 10 Iranians have already been killed in a Ukrainian attack on Russian positions. (FP, 10.26.22)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russian forces pounded Ukraine’s power plants and heating systems over the weekend with some of the heaviest missile strikes in weeks while Ukrainian authorities have asked citizens not to return home and further tax the country’s battered energy infrastructure. (NYT, 10.22.22, AP, 10.25.22)
• Russia’s mass transfer of Ukrainian children to Russian-held territory is a potential war crime. While many of the children did come from orphanages and group homes, the authorities also took children whose relatives or guardians want them back, according to interviews with children and families on both sides of the border. (NYT, 10.22.22)
• Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ministry on Oct. 23 again blamed Russia for deliberately slowing grain exports to stymie the U.N.-brokered deal that resumed Ukrainian agricultural exports by sea over the summer, adding fuel to a brewing battle over whether the deal will be extended. Kyiv has accused Russia of delaying more than 165 cargo ships heading to Ukrainian Black Sea ports. (NYT, 10.23.22, RFE/RL, 10.24.22)
• A secretive group of military engineers in Moscow and St. Petersburg selects civilian targets for Russian missile strikes, according to an investigation by Bellingcat, The Insider and Der Spiegel. (NYT, 10.24.22)
• Russian rockets and Iranian-made drones have destroyed more than one-third of Ukraine's energy sector, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told a conference on Ukraine reconstruction Oct. 25. (RFE/RL, 10.25.22)
• The carnage left by Russian soldiers on the road to Kyiv wasn’t random. It was strategic brutality, perpetrated in areas that were under tight Russian control where military officers—including Col. Gen. Alexander Chaiko, one of Putin’s top generals accused of war crimes in Syria—were present, an investigation by AP and PBS has found. (AP, 10.26.22)
• Berlin on Oct. 25 hosted a “reconstruction” conference for Ukraine, which offered little relief ahead of winter. Ukraine—on track for a 35% economic contraction this year and inflation reaching 20%—has been relying heavily on central bank financing; this is a last-resort solution that is not sustainable. Basic questions remain, including where new funding will come from as well as the split between grants and loans. (FT, 10.26.22, Politico, 10.24.22)
• The U.N.’s cultural and satellite agencies have joined forces to more systematically track the impact of Russia’s invasion on Ukraine’s architecture, art, historic buildings and other cultural heritage, and have compiled an initial list of more than 200 sites that have been damaged or destroyed. (AP, 10.26.22)
• The authorities in Ukraine have recovered the body of a U.S. Army veteran, Joshua Jones, who died in combat while volunteering with the Ukrainian Army, a senior official in Ukraine’s presidency said. The body was returned to Ukrainian officials as part of a prisoner exchange. (NYT, 10.26.22)
• The Russian-appointed governor of Ukraine's Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo, said on Oct. 27 that more than 70,000 people have left the region's capital, the strategic city of Kherson, as heavy fighting between Russian forces and advancing Ukrainian troops continues. (RFE/RL, 10.27.22)
• Many Ukrainian refugees in the EU have had to move from place to place and have yet to secure employment. (WP, 10.26.22)
• Up to 50,000 people have moved to Cyprus since February, mostly Russians and Ukrainians looking to start a new life away from the war, according to Oleg Reshetnikov, who moved to the island in 2014 and created CypRus_IT, a networking community for the thousands of Russian-speaking specialists. (WP, 10.26.22)

Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Ukrainian forces continued their advance against the Russian military in the strategically important southern Kherson region Oct. 25, pushed back Russian mercenaries from Bakhmut in eastern Donetsk and gained new momentum in Luhansk, where they seized a key highway between the towns of Kreminna and Svatove. Russian forces, meanwhile, pounded more than 40 Ukrainian villages. (WP, 10.25.22, AP, 10.26.22)
  • As Ukrainian forces battle to advance on the port city, the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, less than 50 miles northeast of Kherson, which holds back a body of water the size of Utah’s Great Salt Lake, has emerged as a linchpin in the fight for the region. If Kyiv takes the dam, Russia’s forces in the area will face the risk of encirclement. (NYT, 10.26.22)
• Ukraine has shot down at least 23 Ka-52 helicopters since Moscow invaded the country eight months ago, Britain’s defense intelligence agency said Oct. 25. (NYT, 10.25.22)
• The U.S. is considering sending older HAWK air defense equipment from storage to Ukraine to help it defend against Russian drone and cruise missile attacks, two U.S. officials told Reuters. (Reuters, 10.25.22)
• Konstantin Vorontsov, deputy director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's department for non-proliferation and arms control, has warned that Western commercial satellites could become "legitimate" targets for Moscow if they were involved in the war in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 10.27.22)
• Members of Afghanistan’s elite National Army Commando Corps, who were abandoned by the United States and Western allies when the country fell to the Taliban last year, say they are being contacted with offers to join the Russian military to fight in Ukraine. (FP, 10.25.22)
• Ukraine is to receive its first batch of Nasams air defense systems from the U.S. Nasams, also known as National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, is the most sophisticated air defense system provided to Ukraine so far.  Raytheon chief executive Greg Hayes said his company had delivered the first two Nasams earmarked for Ukraine. (FT, 10.26.22)
  • While the U.S. announced a new initiative to track Ukraine’s weapons on Oct. 27, EU officials spoke publicly and anonymously about the rising risk of some of these guns falling into the wrong hands. “We know from experience from the war in the former Yugoslavia . . . of course there is a huge risk,” said Ylva Johansson, EU home affairs commissioner. She stressed that while this was not yet happening in Ukraine, the bloc needed to prepare for it. (FT, 10.28.22)

• As Russian forces continue to launch drone and missile assaults from Belarus and troop movements near Ukraine’s northern border stir concern, the Ukrainian military said on Oct. 27 that it had increased the number of soldiers in the area. Brig. Gen. Oleksii Hromov, the deputy head of the army general staff’s main operations directorate, said that Kyiv had no new evidence to suggest that Belarusian or Russian forces were preparing an offensive strike force. (NYT, 10.27.22)
• The confidant who vented to Putin recently about his military's handling of the war in Ukraine was Yevgeniy Prigozhin. According to the U.S. intelligence report, Prigozhin has expressed his view that the Russian Defense Ministry relies too much on Wagner and is not giving the mercenary group sufficient money and resources to fulfill its mission in the conflict, the people who read the report said. Prigozhin denied recent personal contact with Putin in comments to WP made late Oct. 24. (WP, 10.26.22)
• This week Russia has used Belarusian territory to carry out 10 launches of Iranian-made drones, Ukraine’s Gen. Hromov said. (NYT, 10.27.22)
• “The most important thing for us is to help the Donbas... the plan was the same and the goal is to help the people who live in the Donbas,” Putin told the meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club on Oct. 27 when explaining why he ordered the “special military operation.” (RM, 10.28.22)
• Ukraine is bracing for an influx of recently conscripted Russian troops on the battlefield within the next two weeks, as both sides prepare for a fight for the southern city of Kherson. In Kherson, soldiers who appear to have been mobilized recently have become an overwhelming presence on the street in recent weeks, according to residents. "I don't see Russians beating a hasty retreat from Kherson," Zelensky said this week. (WSJ, 10.28.22)
• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says Russia's use of Iranian drones in Ukraine is "appalling" and the U.S. and allies will seek to block such shipments. (RFE/RL, 10.27.22)
• The head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, once again blasted Col. Gen. Alexander Lapin. In the area of ​​​​the settlements of Terny, Torskoye, and Yampolovka, Kadyrov wrote, five armored personnel carriers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and 50 military personnel crossed the Russian defense line without a fight. In an earlier development, Lapin used a pistol to personally threaten the commander of a mobilized unit that retreated from the front lines without orders. (Odessa Journal, 10.28.22, Meduza, 10.26.22)
• "The task of recruiting 300,000 people has been completed," Shoigu said in a televised meeting with Putin, adding that 41,000 have been deployed to military units in Ukraine. Putin asked Shoigu to thank the mobilized troops for their "patriotism.” (MT/AFP, 10.28.22)
• According to the Institute for the Study of War’s Oct. 27 wrap-up, Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast and along the Kreminna-Lysychansk line. Russian forces also continued to make defensive preparations along the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast where Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground assaults. Pro-war Russian Telegram channels Starshe Eddu (Elder than Edda) and Dva Mayora (Two Majors) claimed that the Ukrainian attack on Kreminna was foiled on Oct. 28 and that Russian forces continued to hold ground in the Kherson region in spite of ongoing Ukrainian attacks there. Fighting also continued in the area of the Donetsk region towns of Bakhmut and Soledar as of Oct. 28, according to both Dva Mayora and Rybar channels. (RM, 10.28.22) 

Punitive measures related to Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The Biden administration on Oct. 26 imposed sanctions on more than 20 Moldovan and Russian individuals and entities for assisting Russian efforts to manipulate Moldova’s political system. (NYT, 10.26.22)
  • Moldovan President Maia Sandu has welcomed a move by the U.S. to impose sanctions on several Moldovans and Russians over "systemic corruption" and their efforts to influence elections in Moldova. (RFE/RL, 10.27.22)
• German software group SAP will miss its deadline to exit Russia before the end of the year as the company has failed to find a buyer for the unit, five sources told Reuters, underscoring the difficulties some companies are facing to leave the country. (Reuters, 10.24.22)
• U.S. automaker Ford has completed its withdrawal from the Russian market with the sale of its 49% stake in the Russian-based Sollers Ford joint venture. (RFE/RL, 10.27.22)
• German carmaker Mercedes-Benz is expected to sell its Russian assets to a local investor, the Russian Industry and Trade Ministry said. (MT/AFP, 10.,26.22)
• In all, at least 32 yachts tied to Russian oligarchs and sanctioned entities have sheltered in Turkey’s waters in recent months, able to move about or moor in its picturesque coves and bays without fear of seizure, according to a New York Times analysis. (NYT, 10.24.22)
• The National Clearing Center of Russia’s main stock exchange has seen its foreign-exchange holdings surge this year, according to people familiar with its operations. A key link in the gas trade, it has so far avoided the U.S. and European sanctions that have hit the central bank and Russia’s major lenders. Much of the money at NCC, which is held on behalf of Russian banks and their clients, is in yuan, shifted out of dollars. (Bloomberg, 10.27.22)
• Canada’s government announced Oct. 28 it is imposing sanctions on 35 more Russians in response to that country’s invasion of Ukraine and issuing bonds that individuals can purchase to support the Ukrainian government. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the group being sanctioned includes leaders of Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom and six energy sector entities. (WP, 10.28.22)
• The EU’s latest sanctions against Russia have also been put into law in Norway, reports the Norwegian foreign ministry. Another 30 people and seven organizations have been added to the sanctions list, including several of those involved in the so-called referendum that Russia claims made four regions in eastern Ukraine part of Russia. (newsinglish.no, 10.28.22)

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• French President Emmanuel Macron said Oct. 23 it’s up to Ukraine to decide the time and terms of peace with Russia, and he cautioned that the end of war “can’t be the consecration of the law of the strongest.” For Ukraine “to stay neutral would mean accepting the world order of the strongest, and I don’t agree with this,” Macron said. (AP, 10.23.22)
• Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics said he has little hope of a diplomatic solution to the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine “until we see the clear defeat of Russia.” (RFE/RL, 10.23.22)
• Members of the House of Representatives’ liberal Congressional Progressive Caucus on Oct. 25 retracted their call for Biden to engage in direct diplomatic talks with Russia over a Ukraine cease-fire, an abrupt retreat that exposed Democratic divisions and the first public hints of dissent in Congress over the war. Upon receiving the original call on Oct^. 24, the Biden administration acknowledged the “very thoughtful concerns” that the progressives had about the conflict in Ukraine. (NYT, 10.25.22, AP, 10.25.22)
• India’s Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said after a phone call with Shoigu on Oct. 26 that he “reiterated India’s position on the need to pursue … dialogue and diplomacy” in Ukraine and that “the nuclear option should not be resorted to by any side” as the use of nuclear or radiological weapons “goes against the basic tenets of humanity.” (AP, 10.26.22)
• The Kremlin blamed the U.S. for the breakdown in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine on Oct. 27, claiming that Kyiv pulled out of negotiations on Washington’s orders. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed the two warring sides had drafted a peace deal in March, when Kyiv’s delegation suddenly stepped back from the negotiation table. Putin considered it “obvious that such unwillingness to negotiate and the rejection of previously agreed terms happened ... on an order from Washington,” Peskov was quoted as saying by state media. (MT/AFP, 10.27.22)
• “We have said many times that we are ready for negotiations... But the leaders of the Kyiv regime decided not to continue negotiations with the Russian Federation. ... However, the decisive word belongs to ... Washington. It is very simple to solve this problem: give an appropriate signal to Kyiv that they should change,” Putin told the meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club on Oct. 27. (RM, 10.28.22)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• “Ukraine... has been made an instrument of U.S. foreign policy. The country has actually lost its sovereignty and is being directly governed by the United States, which is using it as a battering ram against Russia, Belarus, which is a member of our Union State and the CSTO and the CIS in general,” Putin claimed in his Oct. 26 address to the heads of the CIS Security and Intelligence Agencies. (RM, 10.28.22)
• “Global power is exactly what the so-called West has at stake in its game. But this game is certainly dangerous, bloody and, I would say, dirty. It denies the sovereignty of countries and peoples, their identity and uniqueness and tramples upon other states’ interests,” Putin claimed in his speech at the meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club on Oct. 27. “By imposing their values, consumption habits and standardization on others, our opponents—I will be careful with words—are trying to expand markets for their products,” the Russian leader claimed. (RM, 10.28.22)
• “As an independent and distinctive civilization, Russia has never considered and does not consider itself an enemy of the West,” Putin told the meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club on Oct. 27. “It is simply necessary to understand clearly that, as I have already said before, two Wests—at least two and maybe more but two at least—the West of traditional, primarily Christian values, freedom, patriotism, great culture and now Islamic values as well—a substantial part of the population in many Western countries follows Islam. This West is close to us in something. We share with it common, even ancient roots. But there is also a different West—aggressive, cosmopolitan and neocolonial. It is acting as a tool of neoliberal elites. Naturally, Russia will never reconcile itself to the dictates of this West,” he said. (RM, 10.28.22)
  • “In Putin’s speech, true is false, and false is true,” said Nabila Massrali, a spokeswoman for the European Commission, the European Union’s executive arm. “Putin’s message today to the Russian people is unclear, untrue and unedifying,” James Cleverly, Britain’s foreign secretary, wrote on Twitter. (NYT, 10.27.22)
• “Now this historical period of boundless Western domination in world affairs is coming to an end. The unipolar world is being relegated into the past. We are at a historical crossroads. We are in for probably the most dangerous, unpredictable and at the same time most important decade since the end of World War II ,” Putin told the meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club on Oct. 27. (RM, 10.28.22)
• A U.N. disarmament official and the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations have rejected a Russian complaint filed with the U.N. Security Council demanding an investigation into U.S. "military biological activities" in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 10.28.22)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• A Chinese-backed cybergroup has been involved in spreading false claims that the United States was behind the explosions that damaged the Nord Stream pipelines, the cybersecurity firm Mandiant reported Oct. 26. (NYT, 10.26.22)
• China's top diplomat signaled that Chinese leader Xi Jinping, fresh from extending his power for a norm-breaking third term, intends to double-down on his tight relationship with Putin—driving an even deeper wedge between the two authoritarian rulers and the West. In an Oct. 27 phone call with Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing wants to deepen its relationship with Moscow "at all levels," according to a readout published by China's Foreign Ministry. In his turn, Lavrov "expressed gratitude to the Chinese side for supporting Russia's position in favor of a fair settlement," according to the Russian readout. (WSJ, 10.28.22, RM 10.28.22) The aforementioned expression of support for a “fair settlement” indicates that Beijing continues to favor a peaceful resolution to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.¹
• “As for Russian-Chinese relations, ... they have acquired an absolutely unprecedented level of openness, mutual trust and effectiveness. ... We have set certain tasks for ourselves together with my friend—he talks about me the same way... Mr. Xi Jinping in terms of a certain level of trade. We'll get to that level for sure,” Putin told the meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club on Oct. 27. Putin also stated that Russia viewed the recent Taiwan visits by high-profile U.S. politicians as provocations. (RM, 10.28.22, TASS, 10.27.22)
  • Beijing has praised the position on the Taiwan issue voiced by Putin at Oct. 27’s Valdai Discussion Club meeting, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin said Oct. 28. (TASS, 10.28.22)
• Putin says he did not notify his Chinese counterpart of plans to start the special military operation in Ukraine, he said at the Valdai Discussion Club on Oct. 27. (Interfax, 10.27.22)
• China’s currency has become the most purchased cashless form of money by VTB clients, according to this Russian bank. (TASS, 10.27.22)

Missile defense:

• See the Nuclear arms section below.

Nuclear arms:

• Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida says the use of a nuclear weapon by Russia in the war in Ukraine would be considered an "act of hostility against humanity." (RFE/RL, 10.22.22)
• The likelihood that Russia would resort to using a nuclear weapon in its war on Ukraine was “higher than a couple of months ago” and “requires full attention,” Mikk Marran, head of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, has warned. (FT, 10.25.22)
• Ukraine’s defense minister Oleksiy Reznikov said that he does not think Russia will use a nuclear weapon in its invasion of Ukraine. “He [Vladimir Putin] will not use a nuclear weapon,” the defense minister said, adding that he thinks Russia needs to be pragmatic to preserve economic ties with countries such as China and India. (FT, 10.26.22)
• This week has seen Russia’s strategic nuclear triad conduct its second Grom (Thunder) exercise this year to practice what the country’s defense ministry described as a massive nuclear strike in response to a nuclear strike by the adversary. The first of this year’s Grom exercises took place on Feb. 19, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The second Grom exercise took part on Oct. 26 under the personal command of Putin and it involved Tu-95 strategic bombers, test-launching Yars ICBMs from the Plesetsk launch site and test-launching a Sineva SLBM from an SSBN in the Barents Sea. In addition to Grom, Russian armed forces have also reportedly practiced limited first use in the Zapad (West) exercises. (RM, 10.28.22) That Putin—who has not so long ago dwelled in some detail on Russia’s launch-on-warning approach and said Russians would go to heaven in a nuclear war—would command a second Grom in one year indicates he wants the West to believe that the Russian leadership thinks a nuclear war is more likely than before.
• Anthony Blinken said in an interview Oct. 26 at Bloomberg’s Washington offices that “we’ve communicated that very clearly and directly to the Russians, including President Putin.” (Bloomberg, 10.26.22)
• “Let me just say, Russia would be making an incredibly serious mistake for it to use a tactical nuclear weapon. I’m not guaranteeing that it [Russia’s dirty bomb claim against Ukraine] is a false flag operation yet, I don’t know, but it would be a serious, serious mistake,” said Biden. (FT, 10.26.22)
• The Biden administration has released its National Defense Strategy-2022, which includes the nuclear posture review (NPR) and the missile defense review (MDR). The NPR reneges on Biden’s campaign promise to declare deterring or retaliating an enemy nuclear attack the “sole purpose" of nuclear weapons. “While the document ranks China as the U.S.’s main long-term defense focus, it describes Russia as an ‘acute threat’ that must be deterred,” according to FT. In its turn, the MDR says the U.S. will continue to rely on its nuclear arsenal to deter “large intercontinental-range nuclear missile threats” by China and Russia rather than try the “missile defeat approach” as it does with North Korea’s much smaller ICBM arsenal. (RM, 10.28.22)
• “As for Russia…we have the Military Doctrine, and they should read it. One of its articles explains the cases when, why, in relation to what and how Russia considers it possible to use weapons of mass destruction in the form of nuclear weapons to protect its sovereignty, territorial integrity and to ensure the safety of the Russian people,” Putin said at the annual Valdai Forum. (RM, 10.28.22)
• Biden questioned whether Putin was sincere in saying he has no intention of using nuclear or chemical weapons in Ukraine. “If he has no intention, why’s he keep talking about it?” Biden said after he was asked if he believes Putin’s denials in an interview that aired Oct. 27. “Why does he talk about the ability to use a tactical nuclear weapon?” Biden added. “He’s been very dangerous in how he’s approached this. He can end this all. Get out of Ukraine.” (Bloomberg, 10.27.22)

Counterterrorism:

• “It is necessary to continue developing counterterrorism cooperation. ...As for threats in the CIS space, I would like to say that the level of threat coming from ISIL, al-Qaida and other terrorist organizations has not decreased. They are trying to infiltrate CIS countries and are creating undercover cells, while the concentration of terrorist groups in Afghanistan, especially on the borders of Central Asian states, certainly carries the potential risk of invasion in the region,” Putin said in his Oct. 26 address to heads of the CIS security and intelligence agencies. (RM, 10.28.22)

Conflict in Syria:

• Syrian and Russian troops conducted joint military drills in Syria involving ground and air forces, Syrian state media reported Oct. 26. (AP, 10.26.22)

Cyber security:

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• The IEA has said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will accelerate a peak in the world’s consumption of fossil fuels and Russia will never go back to fossil fuel exports at levels seen in 2021, according to the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook . Its share of internationally traded gas is seen shrinking from 30% last year to half of that by 2030. The country exported over 7 million barrels per day of oil last year, but the IEA estimates that falls by a quarter by 2030, even in the least-demanding scenario. By the mid-2020s, North America would be exporting more oil than Russia. (Bloomberg, 10.27.22, FT, 10.27.22)
• Kazakhstan plans to start producing green hydrogen via a $50 billion project by the end of the decade. Svevind Energy Group, the company behind Europe’s largest wind farm in Sweden, signed an agreement with Kazakhstan’s government to build a 20 gigawatt green hydrogen plant that is expected to produce up to 2 million tons of green hydrogen per year from 2032, the equivalent to about one-fifth of the EU target for imported green hydrogen in 2030. (Bloomberg, 10.27.22)
• A fleet of tankers filled with Russian fuel oil have anchored near Singapore and Malaysia as more flows are directed toward Asia ahead of European Union sanctions that take effect early next year. About 1.1 million tons of high-sulfur fuel oil were being stored on vessels in the week through Oct. 24, according to Vortexa Ltd. (Bloomberg, 10.27.22)
• U.S. officials have been forced to scale back a plan to impose a cap on Russian oil prices, following skepticism by investors and growing risk in financial markets brought on by crude volatility and central bank efforts to tame inflation. Instead of strangling the Kremlin’s oil revenues by imposing a strict lid on prices that would have been observed by a broad “buyer’s cartel” of nations, the U.S. and EU are likely to settle for a more loosely policed cap at a higher price than once envisioned, with just G-7 nations and Australia committed to abide by it, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 10.27.22)
  • A Western cap on Russian energy prices destroys individual countries’ sovereignty and plays into the hands of the United States, Igor Sechin, the chief executive of Rosneft, said Oct. 27. (MT/AFP, 10.27.22)
• Europe is suddenly sitting on a glut of natural gas, sending prices lower and easing fears of winter fuel shortages and rationing as the continent weans itself off Russian energy. Dozens of liquefied natural gas tankers are floating offshore European ports. Benchmark futures for gas in the wholesale market have fallen more than a 10th this week to 100 euros, or about the same in dollars, a megawatt-hour. (WSJ, 10.27.22)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• In his nearly four-hour speech and question-and-answer session at the Valdai meeting on Oct. 27, Putin did not mention the U.S. midterm elections taking place on Nov. 8. ''In the United States,'' he said, ''there's a very strong part of the public who maintain traditional values, and they're with us. We know about this.'' (NYT, 10.27.22)
• Between April and the end of September, Russian state media group Rossiya Segodnya funneled $3,284,169 to Ghebi, a U.S. company that produces articles, newswires and a number of radio shows. During that same period, Ghebi spent $2,183,640.72 on behalf of its client, according to an October filing with the Department of Justice made under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. (Politico, 10.27.22)
• The Kremlin on Oct. 26 kept the door open for talks on a possible swap involving jailed U.S. basketball star Brittney Griner but reiterated that any such discussions must be kept strictly confidential. A Russian court on Oct. 25 rejected Griner’s appeal against her nine-year prison sentence for drug possession. (AP, 10.26.22)
• Russia on Oct. 28 put Artyom Uss, the son of a Siberian governor, arrested in Italy on a U.S. order for alleged sanctions evasion on a wanted list, potentially paving the way for Moscow to demand his extradition. (MT/AFP, 10.28.22)
• Russian pilot Konstantin Yaroshenko, who spent more than a decade in a U.S. jail before being returned to Russia in a prisoner swap, was appointed a member of Russia's Civic Chamber by Putin on Oct. 28. (MT/AFP, 10.28.22)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• “As commodity prices are likely to remain high for the rest of 2022, a Russian current account surplus of close to $240 billion is expected for the full year,” according to a new study by Bruegel. The think-tank estimates that Russia’s account surplus will total $100 billion in 2023. (RM, 10.28.22)
• Russia's central bank expects the Russian economy to shrink by up to 3.5% this year. Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the central bank expected the economy to grow as much as 3% in 2022. That means the war has cost the country more than 7% of its GDP in lost output this year alone. "The decline in GDP will be less significant than anticipated," said Bank of Russia head Elvira Nabiullina. (WSJ, 10.28.22)
• Russia's central bank has warned that the country’s large-scale military draft could increase inflation in the longer term, and kept its key interest rate unchanged for the first time after months of cuts. The bank chose to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 7.5 % at a decision meeting on Oct. 28. This marked a shift after six consecutive meetings where the bank cut rates from the emergency 20% level it set after Russia invaded Ukraine in February. (FT, 10.28.22)
• According to figures released Oct. 26 by the Federal State Statistics Service, car production in September was less than half of its level a year earlier. (WSJ, 10.28.22)
• The domestic politics bloc of the presidential administration has begun holding meetings on the 2024 presidential campaign, two sources close to the presidential administration told Meduza. According to them, it is already clear that "the campaign will be under Vladimir Putin." One of Meduza's interlocutors added that Putin's "sparring partners" would be representatives of parliamentary parties. Meduza’s interlocutors close to the Kremlin explained that the only thing that is clear at the moment is that Putin’s next campaign will be built around “anti-Western” narratives. (Meduza, 10.28.22)
• Putin's approval rating has increased slightly, according to the Levada Center, from 77% in September to 79% in October. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s approval rating also rose to 68% in October from 66% in September. Approval of the Russian government improved in a comparable way, with 66% approval in October versus 63% in September, while 29% of respondents did not approve, down from 34% in September. (RM, 10.27.22)
• Putin’s veiled threats to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine have fueled huge increases in demand for iodine pills in Russia, the RBC news website reported Oct. 27. In total, over 850,000 packets of potassium iodide worth some 115.2 million rubles ($1.88 million) were sold in Russia between January and October. (MT/AFP, 10.28.22)
• Russia's lower chamber of parliament, the State Duma, has approved the first reading of a series of amendments to the country's controversial "gay propaganda" law, an expansion of the legislation that rights activists say has put LGBT people at risk and led to increased discrimination and violence. (RFE/RL, 10.27.22)

Defense and aerospace:

• Putin, facing military production delays and mounting losses, urged his government Oct. 25 to cut through bureaucracy to crank out enough weapons and supplies to feed the war in Ukraine. On Oct. 25, he chaired a new committee designed to accelerate the production and delivery of weapons and supplies for Russian troops, stressing the need to “gain higher tempo in all areas.” (AP, 10.25.22)
• A Russian fighter jet smashed into a home in the Siberian city of Irkutsk during a test flight Oct. 23, killing the two pilots, Russian state media reported. It was the second crash of a Russian warplane in a residential area within a week. (NYT, 10.23.22)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Russian media personality Ksenia Sobchak, Putin’s glamorous goddaughter, fled Russia this week and has arrived in Lithuania on an Israeli passport, officials said Oct. 27. A day earlier, her property had been searched by Russian police as part of a criminal case against her organization’s commercial director suspected of embezzlement. (DW, 10.27.22)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• As a new right-wing government takes office in Italy, its leaders are moving quickly to reaffirm support for Ukraine and dispel concerns that they could undercut Europe’s united front against Russia. (NYT, 10.24.22)
• Norway’s domestic security agency has arrested a man claiming to be a Brazilian academic whom it suspects of being a Russian spy. Investigators believe the supposed researcher, who was detained Oct. 24 in the Arctic city of Tromsø, was in Norway under a false name and identity working for one of Russia’s intelligence services. (Guardian, 10.25.22)
  • The suspected Russian spy arrested attended a seminar on hybrid threats in Vilnius, Lithuania recently that included a scenario about responding to a pipeline explosion, according to Norwegian media, a coordinator for the group that hosted the event and a photograph from the event. (WP, 10.27.22)
• Turkey’s finance minister Nureddin Nebati said “opposition elements” inside and outside Turkey were “deliberately raising question marks” about the country’s financial links with Russia, while conceding there had been a rush of cash into its financial system. (FT, 10.25.22)
• The Russian delegation to the G-20 summit will likely be led by Mikhail Mishustin (the summit will be held in Bali on Nov. 15-16), according to Baza's sources in the administration. In addition, the president’s trip to the APEC Leaders’ Forum, which will be held in Bangkok on Nov. 18 and 19, is also a big question. (Baza,  10.24.22)
• “It may be worth revising the structure of the United Nations, including its Security Council, to better reflect the world’s diversity. After all, much more will depend on Asia, Africa and Latin America in tomorrow’s world than is commonly believed today, and this increase in their influence is undoubtedly a positive development,” Putin told the meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club on Oct. 27. (RM, 10.28.22)
• “We have a special relationship with India that has been created or built on the foundation of a very close allied relationship over many, many decades,” Putin told the meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club on Oct. 27. (RM, 10.28.22)
• Russia supports the accession of Saudi Arabia to the BRICS, Putin said at a plenary session of the Valdai International Discussion Club on Oct. 27. "Yes, we support it, but this requires a consensus of all the BRICS countries," he said. (TASS, 10.27.22)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine has declared former central bank Governor Kyrylo Shevchenko a wanted man, along with two high-ranking employees of lender Ukrgasbank, on suspicion of embezzling more than $5.42 million. Shevchenko abruptly resigned on Oct. 4, citing health problems. But two days later, Shevchenko said he had been identified as a suspect in an investigation into "illegal activities" at Ukrgasbank, which he led before his central bank role. (RFE/RL, 10.24.22)
• Boris Johnson’s allies signaled on Oct. 24 that the former U.K. prime minister wanted to focus on ensuring U.S. support for Ukraine in Washington remained strong, while promoting his levelling-up agenda at home, after failing in his bid to secure a swift return to Downing Street. (FT, 10.24.22)
• “We are one people,” Putin said of Russians and Ukrainians. If some part of this single ethnic group at some point decided that they had reached such a level that they consider themselves a separate people, this can only be treated with respect, Putin told the meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club on Oct. 27. (RM, 10.28.22)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Some 200,000 foreigners have applied for Kazakh individual identification numbers to be eligible to work and have bank accounts in the Central Asian nation since Russian citizens came in droves to neighboring Kazakhstan after Moscow announced a partial mobilization for the war in Ukraine in September. (RFE/RL, 10.27.22)
• President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has approved an updated military doctrine for Kazakhstan that officials say reflects modern conditions having an impact on military threats and the security of the Central Asian nation. (RFE/RL, 10.24.22)
• The Kazakh parliament's upper chamber, the Senate, has approved a bill granting mass amnesty to hundreds of people charged and imprisoned in connection with violent antigovernment protests in Janaury. (RFE/RL, 10.27.22)
• Kyrgyz lawmakers, media outlets and rights activists have called for the government to repeal its decision to block the websites of RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service. (RFE/RL, 10.27.22)
• European Council President Charles Michel has called for closer cooperation between the EU and Central Asia during a visit to the region. He said he is looking forward to the EU-Central Asian Substantial Connectivity conference scheduled to be held in Uzbekistan next month. (RFE/RL, 10.27.22)
• “Our position is that this [Armenian-Azerbaijani] peace treaty is, of course, needed. ... The question is which option to choose. This is the business of Armenia, the Armenian people and the Armenian leadership. ... The so-called Washington, as far as I understand, provides for the recognition of Azerbaijan's sovereignty over Karabakh as a whole. If Armenia thinks so, please,” Putin told the meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club on Oct. 27. (RM, 10.28.22)
• Trilateral talks between the President of Russia, President of Azerbaijan and Prime Minister of Armenia will be held in Sochi on Oct. 31. (Kremlin.ru, 10.28.22)
• In recent weeks, two videos detailing the apparent execution of Armenian soldiers by Azerbaijani troops have been posted and shared widely on social media channels. Bellingcat carried out an analysis of one of the videos, geolocating it (alongside others in the open-source community) and identifying several pieces of evidence that would support chronolocation. (Bellingcat, 10.20.22)

 

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

 

Footnotes:

1. Here and elsewhere italicized text represents contextual commentary by RM staff.