Russia in Review, Oct. 19-26, 2018
This Week’s Highlights:
- Despite speculation from U.S. and Russian officials that President Donald Trump’s plan to withdraw from the INF Treaty is basically a negotiating tactic, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said this week that he expects Washington to formally announce its withdrawal in four to six weeks, according to Russian media.
- National security adviser John Bolton said in Moscow that the U.S. and Russia would resume regular meetings on fighting terrorism at the deputy-secretary-of-state level, according to the New York Times. He also said the first meeting of a new U.S.-Russia business council would take place in early 2019, RBC reported, and that the White House has invited President Vladimir Putin to Washington. (The two presidents are already expected to meet in Paris on Nov. 11.)
- Russia has alleged that a U.S. military aircraft took control of drones over western Syria in January and attempted to have them attack a Russian military base there; U.S. officials did not immediately comment, but the Pentagon has previously rejected suggestions that U.S. forces played a role in the attack, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
- U.S. Cyber Command is targeting individual Russian operatives to try to deter them from spreading disinformation to interfere in elections, telling them that American operatives have identified them and are tracking their work, according to officials briefed on the operation, the New York Times reports.
- Both a Kremlin spokesman and the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund have publicly accepted official Saudi explanations about the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, according to Reuters. The RDIF also announced that its Saudi counterpart would become a new partner in the joint Russia-China Investment Fund, contributing $500 million and raising the fund’s total capital under management to $2.5 billion. The Financial Times meanwhile reports that Saudi Arabia's energy minister has said the kingdom aims to acquire 30 percent of Russian gas producer Novatek's $21 billion liquefied natural gas project in the Arctic, strengthening ties between Riyadh and Moscow.
- The Moscow Times reports that President Vladimir Putin's approval rating has fallen to 66 percent, its lowest level since 2013, according to a recent poll published by the independent Levada Center; meanwhile, 42 percent of Russians say they don’t see a political party that adequately represents their interests, according to a new study by the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, with only 23 percent of respondents saying that the ruling United Party represents their interests.
I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda
Nuclear security and safety:
- “In GICNT [the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism], Russia and the U.S. remain good partners, helping enable the Initiative’s 88 other partners to work together to address critical practical issues at the nexus between nuclear security and counterterrorism,” Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Ashley Ford said on Oct. 22. “I still cling to the hope that Russia does perceive an interest in preventing proliferation, and that it will be willing to act with us to promote that interest, which we share,” he said. (U.S. State Department, 10.22.18)
- The National Nuclear Security Administration has issued a contract termination notice to the consortium building the a mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel fabrication facility at the Savannah River Site in South Carolina. (World Nuclear News, 10.23.18)
North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:
- Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev has hailed Washington’s steps towards normalization of the situation around North Korea and welcomed Seoul’s and Pyongyang’s efforts on this track, the press service of the Russian Security Council said on Oct. 22 after Patrushev’s meeting with visiting U.S. national security adviser John Bolton. The Iran nuclear deal, the situation in Syria, Ukraine and Afghanistan were also among the topics discussed at the meeting. (TASS, 10.22.18, TASS, 10.22.18)
Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:
- The Trump administration fears Russia could help Tehran evade U.S. sanctions by buying up Iranian oil and reselling it as its own. (Financial Times, 10.21.18)
Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:
- Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, when asked to comment on the Oct. 18 remarks by Russian President Vladimir Putin, said Putin had stated that Moscow would not launch a nuclear strike unless it was attacked with nuclear weapons or targeted in a conventional attack that threatened its existence. Putin said on Oct. 18 Russia “will employ nuclear weapons only when we have ascertained that someone, a potential aggressor, is conducting a strike against Russia.” (RFE/RL, Russia Matters, 10.22.18)
- Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has stated that Russia and the U.S. could jointly address strategic issues of nuclear deterrence and regulate major long-standing conflicts. "Today there is a great number of problems in the world that could be tackled through joint efforts. It concerns both strategic issues of nuclear deterrence and, naturally, issues of the settlement of major long-standing conflicts," he said at negotiations with U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton. (TASS, 10.23.18)
- One month after Russia launched its biggest-ever military exercise with 300,000 soldiers, its main rival to the west returned the favor on Oct. 25. About 50,000 troops are to participate in the two-week-long Trident Juncture NATO drill in and around Norway. Besides the 29 member states, troops from Finland and Sweden are also to join. The exercise involves 50,000 personnel, 10,000 vehicles, 250 aircraft and 65 ships, including the U.S. Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier strike group. Russia has voiced anger with the exercise. (The Washington Post, 10.25.18, Financial Times, 10.25.18)
- Worried by a military build-up on its doorstep, Germany is leading efforts to coordinate NATO and EU naval forces better in the Baltic Sea to counter Russia's beefed up presence in the area. On Oct. 29, Germany begins exercises off the Finnish coast involving 3,600 sailors and troops, 40 ships and 30 aircraft from more than a dozen countries. The maneuvers will focus on keeping crucial sea routes open in times of conflict. (Reuters, 10.26.18)
- NATO headquarters said Oct. 26 that they would meet in a NATO-Russia Council—their main forum for dialogue—at the military alliance's Brussels headquarters on Oct. 31. (AP, 10.26.18)
- The air defenses of the Baltic States are too weak to stop Russia or to protect NATO reinforcements coming to their aid, according to a report by an Estonian defense think tank. (The National Interest, 10.14.18)
- Macedonia's parliament has taken a critical step toward renaming the country North Macedonia, a move that would end a decades-long dispute with Greece and pave the way for Skopje to join NATO and the EU. (RFE/RL, 10.20.18)
Missile defense:
- No significant developments.
Nuclear arms control:
- Speaking after a rally in Nevada on Oct. 20, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his intention to have the U.S. withdraw from the INF treaty. "Russia has not, unfortunately, honored the agreement. So, we’re going to terminate the agreement and we’re going to pull out," Trump said. "We'll have to develop those weapons, unless Russia comes to us and China comes to us and they all come to us and say let's really get smart and let's none of us develop those weapons,” Trump added. Trump then said again on Oct. 22 that his decision to withdraw from the INF was driven by Moscow's alleged violations and a need to respond to China's nuclear buildup. "Until people come to their senses—we have more money than anybody else, by far. We’ll build it up," Trump told reporters. "Until they come to their senses. When they do, then we’ll all be smart and we’ll all stop." Asked if that was a threat to Putin, Trump said: "It’s a threat to whoever you want. And it includes China, and it includes Russia, and it includes anybody else that wants to play that game. You can’t do that. You can’t play that game on me." (RFE/RL, 10.21.18, RFE/RL,10.22.18, RFE/RL,10.23.18, Russia Matters, 10.20.18)
- "I think if you look at the president's statement in Nevada on Saturday, it's very strong, very clear, very direct as to what the United States is going to do," U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said on Oct. 22 during his trip to Moscow. Bolton also said the administration was "going to be doing a lot of consultation with allies in Europe and Asia [and] certainly we're going to have more discussions with Russia." However, Bolton also said on Oct. 22 after the meetings in Moscow that a formal notice of withdrawal ''will be filed in due course.'' While in Moscow, Bolton met Russian counterpart Nikolai Patrushev, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Russian President Vladimir Putin. In an interview with Kommersant, Bolton said that the U.S. was planning to pull out of the INF treaty because Russia was violating it and because other countries, including China, Iran and North Korea, were free to develop weapons that would be prohibited under the pact while Washington was not. Bolton also told a press conference in Moscow that the U.S. was "a very long way from any decisions" on whether to deploy new U.S. midrange missiles in Europe or elsewhere after withdrawing from the INF treaty. (Wall Street Journal, 10.23.18, New York Times, 10.23.18, Russia Matters, 10.23.18, RFE/RL, 10.23.18)
- After his Oct. 23 meeting with U.S. national security adviser John Bolton, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Washington's withdrawal from the INF treaty could lead to a new "arms race.” In remarks made on Oct. 24, Putin also said that if the U.S. deploys new intermediate-range missiles in Europe after withdrawing from the INF, European nations will be at risk of ''a possible counterstrike.'' Putin said he wants to discuss the treaty with Trump when they attend a Nov. 11 event in Paris commemorating the end of World War I. "We are ready to work with our American partners without any hysterics," he said. (Financial Times, 10.24.18, RFE/RL, 10.25.18, New York Times, 10.24.18)
- Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov sounded a conciliatory note after the meeting of Vladimir Putin and John Bolton, saying that Moscow viewed Bolton's visit as a sign that Washington wanted to continue dialogue on the issue. He said Moscow wanted the same thing. (Reuters, 10.24.18)
- Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Oct. 22 that Russia would be forced to respond in kind if the U.S. began developing new missiles after quitting the INF treaty. "This is a question of strategic security. And I again repeat: such intentions are capable of making the world more dangerous," he said, adding that if the U.S. abandons the pact and develops weapons that it prohibited, Russia "will need to take action ... to restore balance in this area,” he said. Peskov then said on Oct. 23 that "there are weak points" in the INF treaty but that "tearing up the agreement without plans for anything new is what we don't welcome." Peskov also noted that there was a six-month period for the U.S. to withdraw from the treaty after Washington gave official notification it was leaving. That meant the question of Russia developing its own new intermediate-range missiles—something Washington accuses it of doing anyway—was not "for today or tomorrow," he said. (Reuters, 10.22.18, RFE/RL, 10.22.18, RFE/RL, 10.23.18, Reuters, 10.22.18)
- During his Oct. 22 meeting with John Bolton, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev stressed the importance of keeping the INF treaty in place. "The Russian side once again highlighted its principled position that it is of vital importance to keep that agreement in place and reiterated its readiness for joint work to remove mutual claims concerning the treaty’s implementation," the council’s press service said in reference to the meeting. (TASS, 10.22.18)
- "Any action in this area will be met with a counteraction, because the strategic stability can only be ensured on the basis of parity," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said before his talks with John Bolton. "Such parity will be secured under all circumstances. We bear a responsibility for global stability and we expect the U.S. not to shed its share of responsibility either." In separate remarks, Lavrov was quoted by Russian media as saying on Oct. 25 that the U.S. has already decided to withdraw from the INF treaty and that he estimates the U.S. will formally announce its withdrawal in one to 1 1/2 months. (RFE/RL, 10.23.18, Russia Matters, 10.25.18)
- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Russia has passed information on launches of the 9М729 missile to the U.S. and that this missile was launched to a distance of less than 500 kilometers during the West-2017 wargame last year, according to Interfax. In separate comments Ryabkov said a unilateral U.S. withdrawal would be "very dangerous" and lead to a "military-technical" retaliation. (RFE/RL, 10.25.18, Russia Matters, 10.25.18, Reuters, 10.21.18)
- Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the Russian Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, said that a unilateral U.S. withdrawal from the INF treaty would cancel out all attempts at disarmament. "Humanity is threatened by total chaos in the field of nuclear weapons," he wrote on his Facebook page. (RFE/RL, 10.21.18)
- U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement that the U.S. would withdraw from a nuclear disarmament treaty with Russia drew sharp criticism Oct. 21 from one of the men who signed it, Mikhail Gorbachev, who called the decision reckless and not the work of ''a great mind.'' "All the agreements aimed at nuclear disarmament and limitation of nuclear arms must be preserved to save life on Earth," Gorbachev said. Gorbachev also wrote a column for the New York Times, in which he said the U.S. move was "a dire threat to peace" that he still hoped might be reversed through negotiations. (New York Times, 10.22.18, RFE/RL, 10.21.18, The Moscow Times, 10.26.18)
- The pro-Kremlin tabloid website Argumenty Nedeli quoted an unidentified "high-ranking Russian diplomatic-military source" as saying that U.S. President Donald Trump “is simply raising the stakes before negotiations like he always does. Now a banal exchange of concessions both by us and by the Americans will begin." (RFE/RL, 10.22.18)
- Bob Corker, who leads the U.S. Foreign Relations committee, said that U.S. President Donald Trump may have been trying to lay down an ultimatum on the INF treaty. ''This could be something that is just a precursor to try to get Russia to come into compliance,'' he said. (New York Times, 10.22.18)
- Russia failed on Oct. 26 to get the U.N. General Assembly to consider calling on Washington and Moscow to preserve and strengthen the INF treaty. Russia had proposed a draft resolution in the 193-member General Assembly's disarmament committee, but missed the Oct. 18 submission deadline. On Oct. 26, it called for a vote on whether the committee should be allowed to consider the draft, but lost with only 31 votes in favor, 55 against and 54 abstentions. The U.S. has been earlier reported to be seeking to block a move by Russia to schedule a U.N. General Assembly vote on preserving the INF treaty. (Reuters, 10.26.18, RFE/RL, 10.26.18)
- China criticized the U.S., saying on Oct.22 that a unilateral withdrawal from the INF treaty by the U.S. would have negative consequences and urging Washington to handle the issue "prudently." "It needs to be emphasized that it is completely wrong to bring up China when talking about withdrawal from the [INF] treaty," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said. John Lee, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute think tank, estimated that about 95 percent of the missiles in China's arsenal would violate the treaty if Beijing were a signatory. (RFE/RL, 10.23.18, RFE/RL, 10.23.18, 10.22.18)
- NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg says European members of the alliance are unlikely to deploy new nuclear weapons on their soil in response to an alleged violation of the INF treaty. (RFE/RL, 10.24.18)
- The German government regrets the U.S. plan to withdraw from the INF treaty, spokesman Steffen Seibert said on Oct. 22, adding that "NATO partners must now consult on the consequences of the American decision." German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said a day earlier that Trump's announcement "raises difficult questions for us and Europe," but added that Russia had not convincingly addressed the allegations that it had violated the treaty. (RFE/RL, 10.22.18)
- French President Emmanuel Macron spoke to Trump on Oct. 21 and "underlined the importance of this treaty, especially with regards to European security and our strategic stability," Macron's office said in a statement. (RFE/RL, 10.22.18)
- In Britain, Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson said his country stands "absolutely resolute" with Washington on the issue and called on the Kremlin to "get its house in order." (RFE/RL, 10.22.18)
- European Commission spokeswoman Maja Kocijancic told reporters that the U.S. and Russia "need to remain in a constructive dialogue to preserve this treaty and ensure it is fully and verifiably implemented." (RFE/RL, 10.22.18)
- Andrei Belousov, deputy director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Department of Nonproliferation and Arms Control, voiced concerns Oct. 22 that Washington is increasing the role of nuclear weapons in its military planning as part of a stepped-up campaign by the Trump administration to ensure “U.S. military superiority over the rest of the world,” while he also denied U.S. allegations that Moscow has violated the INF treaty. (AP, 10.22.18)
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Oct. 22 that Russia would welcome talks with the U.S. on extending the New START treaty, which limits numbers of Russian and U.S. long-range nuclear weapons such as intercontinental ballistic missiles, beyond its 2021 expiration date. (RFE/RL, 10.22.18)
- In an interview with Kommersant published ahead of his arrival in Moscow, U.S. national security adviser John Bolton suggested that Trump administration officials didn't see any urgency in deciding New START's fate. A senior U.S. administration official told reporters that the U.S. was looking at renegotiating the 2010 New START treaty. “We don’t have a definitive U.S. position yet, but there are several considerations including renegotiation,” said the official. (Financial Times, 10.21.18, RFE/RL, 10.23.18)
- U.S. Vice President Mike Pence on Oct. 23 declined to rule out the idea of deploying nuclear weapons in space, saying that the current ban on their use is "in the interest of every nation" but that the issue should be decided on "the principle that peace comes through strength." (The Washington Post, 10.24.18)
Counter-terrorism:
- U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said in Moscow that the U.S. and Russia would resume regular meetings on fighting terrorism at the level of a deputy secretary of state and a deputy minister of foreign affairs. (New York Times, 10.23.18)
- Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said on Oct. 26 it had detained six members of an Islamic State cell plotting attacks in Moscow. The FSB said the group planned to use guns and improvised explosive devices for their attacks and was guided by Islamic State members in Syria. Putin said on Oct. 25 that the FSB has prevented a total of 15 terrorist attacks so far this year. (Reuters, 10.26.18, Russia Matters, 10.26.18)
Conflict in Syria:
- The U.S. agrees with Russia that the Syria de-confliction talks have been highly successful and useful and hopes to broaden the dialogue and discuss other issues, U.S. national security adviser John Bolton told Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu at a meeting on Oct. 23. The Russian military said there were "constructive" talks with Shoigu. (RFE/RL, 10.23.18, Interfax, 10.23.18)
- Russia has alleged that a U.S. military aircraft had taken control of drones over western Syria in January and attempted to have them attack the Russian military base there. Russian Deputy Defense Minister Aleksandr Fomin said on Oct. 25 that 13 drones were heading toward the Hmeimim air base in Latakia Province when a U.S. Poseidon-8 intelligence plane flying over the Mediterranean Sea "took control" of them, according to Russian news agencies. U.S. officials did not immediately comment on the claim, but the Pentagon had rejected previous Russian insinuations that U.S. forces played a role in drone attacks against Russia's air base and its naval facility. (RFE/RL, 10.25.18)
- The Russian air force conducted over 40,000 sorties, including more than 21,000 at night, during the Syrian military campaign, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said at the fifth ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting. (Interfax, 10.22.18)
- Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will hold a separate meeting on the sidelines of a four-way summit on Syria in Istanbul on Oct. 27. (Interfax, 10.23.18)
- Russia's independent Novaya Gazeta newspaper has quoted Valery Amelchenko, purported security aide of Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, as saying that several people who work for Prigozhin had traveled to Syria in 2017 to test an unknown poison on Syrians who refused to fight for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government. Novaya Gazeta corroborated the account with two other sources. (RFE/RL, 10.22.18)
- U.S. and Turkish troops are expected to begin conducting joint military patrols in the next few days around the Syrian city of Manbij, the Pentagon’s top commander for the Middle East says. (RFE/RL, 10.22.18)
Cyber security:
- The U.S. Cyber Command is targeting individual Russian operatives to try to deter them from spreading disinformation to interfere in elections, telling them that American operatives have identified them and are tracking their work, according to officials briefed on the operation. Defense officials would not say how many individuals they were targeting, and they would not describe the methods that Cyber Command has used to send the direct messages to the operatives behind the influence campaigns. Officials said some of the targets were involved in previous Russian efforts to spread disinformation in the U.S. and Europe, including the 2016 presidential election. (New York Times, 10.23.18)
- When U.S. President Donald Trump calls old friends on one of his iPhones to gossip, gripe or solicit their latest take on how he is doing, American intelligence reports indicate that Chinese spies are often listening, current and former American officials said. Trump's aides have repeatedly warned him that his cellphone calls are not secure, and they have told him that Russian spies are routinely eavesdropping on the calls, as well. Trump dismissed a report about Chinese and Russian spies listening in on his cellphone calls as ''soooo wrong.” (New York Times, 10.24.18, New York Times, 10.25.18)
- While in Moscow, U.S. national security adviser John Bolton also said that China’s cyber-attacks against the U.S. made Russia seem like the “junior partner.” He did not go into detail. (The Guardian, 10.24.18)
- Cybersecurity researchers have linked a Russian government lab to a potentially deadly cyberattack last year at a Saudi petrochemical plant, part of a global operation to target computers that operate critical industrial systems. (The Washington Post, 10.24.18)
- The U.S. Cyber Command has sent teams to Ukraine, Macedonia and Montenegro to build up defenses against Russian hackers intent on penetrating government networks on its doorstep in Eastern Europe. (New York Times, 10.23.18)
- Russia's state security agency is opposing a high-level deal for the U.S. OneWeb satellite startup to bring Internet access to remote parts of the country because it says the project could be used to gather intelligence and damage national security. (Reuters, 10.24.18)
Elections interference:
- U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said on Oct. 22 that Russian meddling in U.S. elections did not have any effect on the outcome, but told Russian officials that it did "sow enormous distrust of Russia" in the U.S. "The point I made to Russian colleagues today was that I didn't think, whatever they had done in terms of meddling in the 2016 election, that they had any effect on it, but what they have had an effect in the U.S. is to sow enormous distrust of Russia," Bolton told radio station Ekho Moskvy during his visit to Moscow. Bolton added that he told the Russians: "You shouldn't meddle in our elections because you're not advancing Russian interest." (Reuters, 10.23.18)
- U.S. Rep. Mark Meadow, one of U.S. President Donald Trump's top allies on Capitol Hill, is calling for members of the FBI and Justice Department to be referred for potential disciplinary action over their scrutiny of former Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos, alleging without evidence that his constitutional rights may have been violated by federal law enforcement officials. "Not only was there no collusion but there was not even the opportunity for collusion based on his contacts" with alleged Russian intermediaries, Meadows said. Papadopoulos says he's considering withdrawing his guilty plea. (The Washington Post, 10.25.18, AP, 10.26.18)
- U.S. intelligence and law-enforcement agencies issued another warning about foreign interference—by Russia, China, Iran and others—in the upcoming congressional elections and other elections in the future. (RFE/RL, 10.19.18)
Energy exports:
- The head of Russia's state-controlled oil giant Rosneft is warning that U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela will trigger "major imbalances in the oil market." Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin on Oct. 25 predicted an increase in oil prices and a reduction in global oil production as a result of the sanctions. (RFE/RL, 10.26.18)
- German Chancellor Angela Merkel has offered government support to efforts to open up Germany to U.S. gas. Over breakfast this month, Merkel told a small group of lawmakers her government had decided to co-finance the construction of a 500 million euro ($576 million) liquefied natural gas shipping terminal in northern Germany. (Wall Street Journal, 10.22.18)
Bilateral economic ties:
- U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said the first meeting of the U.S.-Russia business council, which U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to set up, will take place in early 2019, RBC reported. (Russia Matters, 10.24.18)
Other bilateral issues:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested a meeting with his U.S. counterpart, Donald Trump, be organized in Paris on Nov. 11, on the sidelines of celebrations of the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I. U.S. national security adviser John Bolton reassured Putin that Trump would be glad to see him. Asked whether he and Putin would meet in Paris, Trump told reporters at the White House: "We may." "That's being discussed right now," Trump said. "I think we probably will. It hasn't been set up yet, but it probably will be." Bolton said, "We could also see a fuller meeting like Helsinki somewhere else as well." (RFE/RL, 10.23.18, TASS, 10.23.18, The Moscow Times, 10.24.18)
- The White House has invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to Washington, U.S. national security advisor John Bolton said on Oct. 26. It was not immediately clear if Putin had accepted the invitation. (Reuters, 10.26.18)
- Moscow is surprised by unfriendly steps the U.S. has taken following a quite constructive summit in Helsinki in July, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with U.S. national security adviser John Bolton. During the meeting, Putin made an acerbic reference to the U.S. coat of arms: "On the coat of the arms of the U.S. there's an eagle holding 13 arrows in one talon and an olive branch in the other. My question is whether your eagle has gobbled up all the olives leaving only the arrows?" Bolton quipped that he had not brought any olives. (The Moscow Times, 10.24.18, TASS, 10.23.18)
- U.S. national security adviser John Bolton says the Trump administration hasn't made up its mind about imposing more sanctions against Russia over the poisoning of an ex-spy in England. Bolton said Oct. 24 the administration is "still considering what we may be obligated to do" under a statute that calls for further sanctions if Russia does not prove its innocence in the nerve agent attack on Sergei Skripal and his daughter. In separate comments on Oct. 26, Bolton said the U.S. would do what it deems necessary, including considering more sanctions, to address Russia's interference in its elections and its annexation of Crimea. (AP, 10.24.18, Reuters, 10.26.18)
- While in Moscow, U.S. national security adviser John Bolton visited both the tomb of the unknown soldier outside the Kremlin—a customary stop for foreign officials on top-level visits—and a makeshift memorial to murdered Kremlin opponent Boris Nemtsov on the nearby bridge where he was shot dead in February 2015. (RFE/RL, 10.23.18)
- One of Russia’s richest men, Alisher Usmanov, has transferred control of his majority voting stake in social-networks operator Mail.ru Group in a move that could insulate the company if the billionaire is added to the U.S. sanctions list. (Bloomberg, 10.22.18)
- Russian businessman Boris Rotenberg, under U.S. sanctions over the Ukraine conflict due to his close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, has filed a lawsuit accusing four Nordic banks of breaching service contracts in Finland, a court said on Oct. 22. (Reuters, 10.22.18)
- Paul Manafort, former Trump campaign chairman, is set to be sentenced Feb. 8 in Alexandria federal court on eight bank and tax fraud crimes. Legal experts said Manafort is likely to face about seven to 10 years in prison. He also faces sentencing in a related case in Washington, also brought by special counsel Robert Mueller. (The Washington Post, 10.21.18)
- The FBI has refused to release laboratory results into the suspected poisoning of anti-Kremlin activist Vladimir Kara-Murza last year, frustrating his congressional supporters and deepening the mystery behind his illness. (RFE/RL, 10.26.18)
- In the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump’s Sept. 22, 2017 speech, tweets about the NFL and the national anthem surged from accounts linked to the Internet Research Agency, the Russian and Kremlin-backed company accused of attempting to sow discord in the U.S. On Sept. 23, 24 accounts almost simultaneously tweeted: “VIDEO: Trump SHREDS NFL Anthem Protesters!” (Wall Street Journal, 10.22.18)
II. Russia’s domestic news
Politics, economy and energy:
- Alexei Kudrin, the head of Russia’s Audit Chamber, warned in an interview that a looming economic slowdown could be much worse than anticipated. Gross domestic product may expand “considerably” less than 1 percent next year, even as the government sees a downswing to 1.3 percent, according to Kudrin. (Bloomberg, 10.24.18)
- Russia’s central bank has left the key interest rate at 7.5 percent, a move interpreted as an attempt to steady markets following last month’s surprise rate hike, the first in four years. (Financial Times, 10.26.18)
- Sberbank, Russia’s largest lender, and search company Yandex are hoping to capture the country’s 1.1 trillion ruble ecommerce market with a new online marketplace, Beru, which they say will be a “Russian Amazon.” (Financial Times, 10.25.18)
- Russian President Vladimir Putin's approval rating has fallen to 66 percent, its lowest level since 2013, according to a recent poll published by the independent Levada Center. Putin’s popularity has been hurt by controversial legislation he signed earlier this month to raise the retirement age. In a separate poll published by Levada earlier this month that asked respondents to select the politicians they trust most, Putin was only named by 39 percent of people—a 20 point drop in one year. (The Moscow Times, 10.25.18)
- Forty-two percent of Russians say they don’t see a political party that adequately represents their interests, according to a new study published by the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. According to the results, only 23 percent of respondents said that the ruling United Russia Party represented their interests. The Communist Party came in second, with 11 percent of people saying it represented their interests. (The Moscow Times, 10.26.18)
- The Memorial human rights group says it has reached an agreement with Moscow city officials to hold an annual commemoration of the victims of Stalinist terror, days after the authorities withdrew permission for the event. (The Moscow Times, 10.23.18)
- Top Kremlin propagandist Dmitry Kiselyov asked Russian academics on Oct. 25 “to define the limits of what is not inadmissible and what is allowed under freedom of speech and freedom of expression.” (The Moscow Times, 10.25.18)
- Six people died in floods in Russia’s Krasnodar region that also damaged regional infrastructure, including an oil pipeline, the authorities said on Oct. 26 as emergency workers were struggling to provide food and water to the victims. (AFP, 10.26.18)
Defense and aerospace:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 25 that Russia plans to commission new military weapons that would be unrivaled throughout the world. The new Russian weapons “significantly excel foreign designs and are simply unrivaled,” he said. (AP, 10.25.18)
- A mysterious missile photographed last month on a Russian jet is believed to be a mock-up of an anti-satellite weapon, three sources with direct knowledge of a U.S. intelligence report say. The Russian anti-satellite weapon, which is attached to a space launch vehicle, is expected to target communication and imagery satellites in low Earth orbit, according to one source, and is expected to join Moscow's arsenal by 2022. (CNBC, 10.25.18)
- Russia has successfully launched an unmanned Soyuz rocket, the first such liftoff since an aborted launch of a similar rocket earlier this month. The Russian Defense Ministry on Oct. 25 said that "a Soyuz-2.1B rocket was successfully launched carrying a satellite for the Russian military" from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome. (RFE/RL, 10.25.18)
Security, law-enforcement and justice:
- Nordea is facing more scrutiny on money laundering after a prominent Kremlin critic more than doubled the amount of money from a purported Russian tax fraud that he alleges flowed through accounts at the biggest Nordic bank. Bill Browder asked for a criminal investigation into allegations that $234 million from the fraud flowed through 527 Nordea accounts in Finland. (Financial Times, 10.22.18)
- Russia's independent Novaya Gazeta newspaper has quoted Valery Amelchenko, purported security aide of Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, as saying that Prigozhin was involved in several attacks against his opponents. The article quoted Amelchenko as admitting that he personally orchestrated attacks on several of Prigozhin's rivals, including the killing of an opposition blogger in northwest Russia, on Prigozhin’s behalf. (RFE/RL, 10.22.18)
- A new report published Oct. 26 by journalist Sergei Kanev details the misbehavior, sloppiness and bizarre bureaucratic decisions that allowed a Russian crime reporter to identify multiple alleged GRU officers. (AP, 10.26.18)
- The European Court of Human Rights has ordered Russia to pay 1.5 million euros in damages to the relatives of 22 individuals who disappeared in Chechnya between 2001 to 2005 after allegedly being detained by federal security forces. (The Moscow Times, 10.24.18)
- A court in Russia's Republic of Mordovia in the Volga region has refused to approve the early release of a former Russian intelligence officer jailed for treason. Gennady Kravtsov was found guilty of providing Western intelligence services with classified information about the Tselina-1 spacecraft and was sentenced in 2015 to 14 years in prison. The sentence was later cut to 6 years. (RFE/RL, 10.25.18)
- Three people were detained during a police raid on a floating cannabis plantation in Russia’s northwest Arkhangelsk region. (The Moscow Times, 10.22.18)
III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment
Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has hosted Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte in Moscow for talks that were expected to focus on efforts to boost economic relations. Italy is Russia's sixth-largest trading partner, with growth sustained over the past two years, Putin told the Italian prime minister. Conte urged an end to EU sanctions on Russia and said on Oct. 24 he is committed to boosting trade with Moscow, despite the sanctions. Conte also hailed Russia as an essential global player and invited Putin to visit Italy. Prior to the trip, Conte told a news conference in Rome that Italy calls for Russia’s return to the Group of Seven (G7) as Moscow is an important participant in the process of solving global crises. (RFE/RL, 10.24.18, RFE/RL, 10.25.18, TASS, 10.22.18)
- EU governments would need to endorse a further six-month extension, due in January, of sanctions against Moscow over its occupation of Crimea. These measures limit access to EU capital markets for some Russian banks and companies. They also curb Russian access to some “sensitive technologies” and services used for oil production, as well as banning Russia-related arms sales, and exports of dual-use goods for military use in Russia. (Financial Times, 10.24.18)
- There are more than five times as many Russian intelligence officers in the U.K. now than there were during the Cold War, according to a report to be published next week by the Henry Jackson Society think tank. (Daily Mail, 10.21.18)
- By 2016, Russian demand for real estate in London was “practically dead,” says Dmitry Zakirov, director of Russian language property consultants LonGrad. In the wake of tax changes in the U.K. and restrictions on money leaving Russia, he estimates that the number of Russians buying in London dropped 75 percent in a year. Numbers were beginning to recover, he adds, but have since slumped again thanks to the introduction of unexplained wealth orders in January, the souring of Anglo-Russian relations following the Skripal attack in March and the subsequent decision of the U.K. government to re-examine 700 Russian visas. (Financial Times, 10.25.18)
- Results of a survey published by the independent Levada Center pollster on Oct. 25 say that 28 percent of Russians believe that British intelligence services were behind the Skripals’ poisoning, with only 3 percent saying they believe their own intelligence officers carried out the attack. Another 56 percent said that "it could have been anyone." (The Moscow Times, 10.25.18)
- Greece last summer denied visas to several high-ranking Russian Orthodox Church officials headed to Athos, in which Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown a keen interest. Greek officials fear any revival of the pre-revolutionary effort by czarist Russia to dominate the peninsula. (New York Times, 10.23.18)
- The trade group Safer Phosphates would seem to have a pitch-perfect message for an environmentally conscious EU. It advocates cleaner soil and healthier food, with a website showing pristine fields of wheat. It is also supporting legislation that would place tighter regulations on fertilizer. But the group is not run by environmentalists. Its driving force is a Russian fertilizer giant that has ties to the Kremlin. (New York Times, 10.23.18)
- The installation of Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile systems in Turkey will begin in October 2019, state-owned Anadolu news agency on Oct. 25 quoted Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar as saying. (Reuters, 10.25.18)
- Russia has no reason to doubt the statements of the Saudi king and crown prince that the royal family was not involved in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. The Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) also welcomed the latest Saudi explanation of the Khashoggi case, issuing a statement saying that it “strongly supports” the reforms led by the crown prince. On Oct. 25, RDIF said that its Saudi counterpart would become a new partner in the joint Russia-China Investment Fund. Under the deal, Riyadh's Public Investment Fund will contribute $500 million to what becomes the Russian-Chinese-Saudi investment fund, raising its total capital under management to $2.5 billion, RDIF said in a statement. (Reuters, 10.26.18, Bloomberg, 10.23.18, Reuters, 10.25.18, Reuters, 10.26.18)
- Saudi Arabia's energy minister has said the kingdom aims to acquire 30 percent of Russian gas producer Novatek's $21 billion liquefied natural gas project in the Arctic, strengthening ties between Riyadh and Moscow. (Financial Times, 10.25.18)
- Around 200 Russian and Pakistani troops have kicked off annual joint exercises in the mountainous Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province in northwestern Pakistan. (RFE/RL, 10.23.18)
- Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev will represent Russia at the APEC summit in Papua New Guinea on Nov. 15-17. (TASS, 11.26.18)
- Switzerland’s top court lifted reporting restrictions on the reasons for Roman Abramovich’s failed bid for residency in the Alpine nation. The Supreme Court judges cited concerns raised by Swiss police that Abramovich was “suspected of money laundering” and had “presumed contacts with criminal organizations,” according to the text of the Sept. 21 decision released Oct. 23. (Bloomberg, 10.23.18)
- Nobel Peace Prize laureate Lech Walesa, co-founder of Poland's Solidarity movement and the country's first post-communist president, says a new international "solidarity" movement is needed to propel democracy forward in Russia and respond to Moscow's aggressive foreign policies. (RFE/RL, 10.24.18)
- For more than three years, Finnish journalist Jessika Aro, who investigated Russia's army of vicious internet trolls, faced a barrage of false accusations online that she was an American intelligence operative, a drug dealer and an unhinged bimbo driven by Russophobia. This week, Aro got a measure of satisfaction when a court in Helsinki convicted two of her most dedicated slanderers of defamation. Both Ilja Janitskin and Johan Backman were handed unusually harsh sentences. (New York Times, 10.20.18)
China:
- Former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe Ben Hodges said: "I think in 15 years—it's not inevitable, but it is a very strong likelihood—that we will be at war with China. The U.S. does not have the capacity to do everything it has to do in Europe and in the Pacific to deal with the Chinese threat." (AP, 10.24.18)
Ukraine:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a decree for new economic sanctions against Ukraine, tasking the government with drawing up a list of firms and individuals. The decree posted on the Kremlin's website on Oct. 22 says that the decision was made "in response to Ukraine’s unfriendly actions, related to the introduction of restrictive measures against citizens and legal entities of the Russian Federation," as well as to “protect national interests." (The Moscow Times, 10.22.18)
- U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said on Oct. 26 it would be helpful if Russia got out of Ukraine’s Crimea and eastern Ukraine, stopped meddling in U.S. elections and was less intrusive in the Middle East. (Reuters, 10.26.18)
- The growth of gross domestic product in Ukraine in January-September 2018 amounted to 3.8 percent compared to the same period in 2017, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has said. (Kyiv Post, 10.26.18)
- The International Monetary Fund said it had reached a new agreement with Ukraine, paving the way for a fresh $4 billion loan. The agreement followed an announcement earlier on Oct. 19 by Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroysman that household gas rates would rise by nearly 25 percent. (RFE/RL, 10.19.18)
- Of respondents, 5.4 percent of Ukrainians believe that Crimea may return to Ukraine in the near future, 42.3 percent think it will probably return in the long run, another 20.1 percent think that the soonest return is impossible, and 15.5 percent think that the return is absolutely impossible, according to a survey conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the sociological service of the Razumkov Center. (Interfax, 10.22.18)
- The European Parliament has urged EU states to make clear to Russia that it will face tougher measures if it intensifies its "de facto blockade" of international shipping in the Sea of Azov. (RFE/RL, 10.25.18)
- The European Parliament has awarded the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought to Ukrainian filmmaker Oleg Sentsov, jailed in Russia on terrorism charges. (The Moscow Times, 10.25.18)
- The EU’s top court turned away an appeal by Dmytro Firtash, the latest twist for the Ukrainian oligarch whose extradition from Austria the U.S. has been fighting for since his 2014 arrest in Vienna. The Oct. 24 ruling paves the way for the Austrian Supreme Court to hear Firtash’s challenge to the U.S. extradition request. (RFE/RL, 10.24.18)
Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:
- “A military attack on Belarus will be regarded as an attack on Russia with all the resulting consequences,” Moscow’s ambassador to Belarus, Mikhail Babich, said in an interview on Oct. 21. (The Moscow Times, 10.22.18)
- Belarusian officials, foreign diplomats and representatives of Jewish organizations have gathered in Minsk for three days of events commemorating the killing of thousands of Jews during World War II. (RFE/RL, 10.22.18)
- U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said in Baku that the U.S. will continue to support a peaceful solution of the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. According to Bolton, among other issues he discussed with Azeri leader Ilham Alieyv is Iran's nuclear ambitions and the Southern Gas Corridor project, which aims to diversify gas supplies and reduce Europe's dependence on Russian gas. (RFE/RL, 10.24.18)
- U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said in Yerevan that that the Trump administration is "going to enforce these sanctions [on Iran] very vigorously" and that the Armenian-Iranian border is "going to be a significant issue." Bolton also said the Trump administration wants to "look at" possibilities of weapons sales to Armenia. At the same time Bolton said Russian arms supplies to both Azerbaijan and Armenia have hampered the settlement of their conflict over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. (RFE/RL, 10.25.18, AP, 10,25.18)
- Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian's efforts to force early elections cleared another legal hurdle when the country's parliament agreed not to reappoint him as prime minister a week after his tactical resignation. New elections then must be held no earlier than in 30 days and no later than in 45 days—approximately in the first half of December. (RFE/RL, 10.24.18)
- U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said in Tbilisli Washington had taken all necessary sanctions against Russia related to the war it fought against Georgia in 2008. Bolton told reporters in Tbilisi after talks with Georgia's top officials on Oct. 26 that the U.S. supports Georgia's territorial integrity and independence. (RFE/RL, 10.26.18)
- Fifteen years ago, Salome Zurabishvili was France’s ambassador to Georgia, an experienced diplomat representing the Elysée in Tbilisi. This weekend she is on the ballot to become president of the Caucasian republic. While forecasts are hampered by unreliable polling and high voter apathy, most analysts consider her the frontrunner in the election, helped by support from the ruling Georgian Dream coalition and a splintered opposition. (Financial Times, 10.25.18)
- During a visit to Tashkent, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross hailed the Uzbek government's commitment to democratic reforms and called for close partnership between the world’s biggest economy and Central Asia’s most populous country. (RFE/RL, 10.24.18)
- An ethnic Kazakh man from China, Omirbek Bekaly, says his 80-year-old father died in a so-called "reeducation camp" in China's northwestern region of Xinjiang. (RFE/RL, 10.22.18)
- Ikramjan Ilmiyanov, a former adviser to ex-President Almazbek Atambaev is being held on suspicion of financial fraud after being detained in Russia and brought back to Kyrgyzstan by law enforcement authorities. (RFE/RL, 10.22.18)
IV. Quoteworthy
- No significant developments.