5 Things to Know

1. Russia hosted the first BRICS summit since the group's expansion to nine members with leaders from 32 countries, including China and India, as well as the U.N. General Secretary, participating in the event that took place in Kazan this week. The Oct. 22–24 summit, which has become the largest geopolitical event hosted by Russia since the invasion of Ukraine, symbolized Kremlin’s efforts to promote a multipolar world order as an alternative to U.S. dominance. One key item on the summit’s agenda was discussion of Russia's “BRICS Bridge” proposal, aiming to create a blockchain-based payment system to bypass the U.S. dollar. However, practical progress on implementing Russia’s financial proposals was reportedly limited, as countries face U.S. pressure not to collaborate with Russia’s financial system. Putin, Xi and some other leaders of the BRICS countries’ would like this group to become a competitor to Western-led international organizations, while others, such as Modi, are careful to avoid turning the group into an alternative to global organizations. Lack of consensus on the issue is reflected in the Kazan summit’s declaration. It contains 20 references to multipolarity and multilateralism, calling for a more just world order. The declaration’s signatories also offer some implicit criticism of the West by asserting that “we are deeply concerned about the disruptive effect of unlawful unilateral coercive measures, including illegal sanctions, on the world economy, international trade and the achievement of the sustainable development goals.” However, while shaming, the declaration doesn’t name any particular group of countries.* 
2. Some 1,500 servicemen of North Korea’s Eleventh Army, an elite unit known as the “Storm Corps,” are undergoing training in Russia as part of a 10,000–12,000-strong unit that will be tasked with helping Russia to re-take parts of its Kursk region held by Ukrainian armed forces, according to South Korean intelligence as cited by Bloomberg and FT. The balance of forces in this region, where the Ukrainian army has already had to cede up to half of its gains, is already reportedly tilting slowly in Russia’s favor. U.S. officials have earlier this week acknowledged the presence of North Korean servicemen in Russia, but have not given any hints on whether and how Ukraine’s allies may respond if the DPRK personnel are employed to fight on Russia’s side. Meanwhile, Putin has appeared to acknowledge that North Korean troops had been deployed to his country, according to NYT. Alluding to the DPRK-RF treaty, which has a mutual assistance clause, Putin said on Oct. 24 that he “never doubted at all that the North Korean leadership takes our agreements seriously.”¹
3. A U.S. official told Fox News that America’s Intelligence Committee (IC) and Department of Defense (DOD) have recommended against modifying a U.S. policy that would allow Ukraine to strike targets deep within Russia using U.S.-made long-range missiles. According to the IC and DOD analysis, a change in policy would not have a strategic impact nor would it change the course of the war. In addition, "[i]t would be irresponsible if we didn’t take into account what Russia would do," the official said. Russia is a "nuclear power capable of doing very bad things both to Ukraine and to the U.S.,” Fox News quoted the U.S. official as saying shortly after the Biden administration had announced a new $400 million shipment of arms to Ukraine. The new package includes ammunition for missile and artillery systems, armored personnel carriers, and satellite communication equipment, according to ISW.
4. Russia is open to a “reasonable compromise” but won’t make any concessions to end its war in Ukraine, Putin said in a TV interview that aired after he completed hosting the BRICS summit in Kazan. “We are ready to make reasonable compromises, but I don’t want to go into details right now because there are no substantive negotiations,” Putin was quoted by Bloomberg as saying in this TV interview broadcast Oct. 25. One day prior to the broadcast, Putin had told a BRICS summit press conference that “We are ready to consider any options for peace agreements, based on the realities that are developing on the ground,” repeating his earlier demands that Ukraine accept Russia’s land grabs. Last week, Putin said Russia is ready to hold a dialogue on a peaceful settlement, but only based on draft agreements Russian and Ukrainian negotiations discussed in Istanbul in spring 2022.
5. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that if Russia and Ukraine can agree to refrain from attacking each others’ energy infrastructure, it could lead to the cessation of hostilities and peace talks, FT reported. “We saw during the first [peace] summit that there could be a decision on energy security. In other words: we do not attack their energy infrastructures, they don’t attack ours. Could this lead to the end of the war’s hot phase? I think so,” the Ukrainian leader was quoted by this U.K. newspaper as saying. 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• IAEA experts are inspecting Ukrainian electrical substations at Ukraine's request. During the visits, they consider the operational consequences of actual and potential damage to substations supplying off-site electricity to the country's nuclear power plants. (Korrespondent.net, 10.25.24)
• A Russian colonel general and four of his subordinates will be tried in absentia for shelling a nuclear facility in Kharkiv, where the world's only subcritical nuclear facility, the Neutron Source, is located, the press service of the Prosecutor General's Office reported Oct. 25. In 2022, this nuclear facility was hit 74 times with various types of weapons, aerial bombs, high-explosive fragmentation shells. (Korrespondent.net, 10.25.24)
• On Oct. 23, 2024, Rosatom’s Technical Academy and the IAEA signed an agreement to extend the academy’s status as an IAEA cooperation center in the field of nuclear knowledge management and human resource development, as well as to expand the program areas of cooperation. Under the agreement, the Technical Academy not only extended cooperation with the IAEA in such areas as nuclear energy, nuclear security, nuclear science and its applications, but also expanded the scope of interaction to the following areas: SMR, nuclear medicine and radiopharmaceuticals. (Rosatom, 10.24.24)
• The U.N.'s nuclear agency has financed Russian state scientific research in Crimea since Moscow's seizure of the Ukrainian peninsula in 2014, an RFE/RL investigation has found—funding that critics call tantamount to legitimizing Russian aggression against its neighbor. (RFE/RL, 10.21.24)
• The BRICS’ summit’s Kazan declaration, which was adopted on Oct. 23, 2024, said: “We also call for the full implementation of the UNSC Resolution 1540 which offers states an important impetus for adopting effective and robust measures at the national level to prevent weapons of mass destruction, their means of delivery and related materials from getting into the hands of non-state actors, including terrorists, as well as frameworks for cooperation at the international level for this aim.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.23.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• A first group of 1,500 elite special forces troops is already undergoing training in Russia’s far east as part of a planned deployment of about 10,000 North Korean soldiers, according to South Korean intelligence documents shared with allies and seen by Bloomberg News. They were transported to the port of Vladivostok between Oct. 8 and Oct. 13 after the first visit by Russian naval vessels to North Korean waters since 1990, the assessment showed. A second batch of North Korean troops will head to Russia soon. (Bloomberg 10.25.24)
  • Hundreds of North Korean troops have been filmed at military bases in Russia’s far east, training ahead of what Kyiv and its western allies say is a deployment to fight in Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine. Disguised as Buryats and Yakuts, the North Korean troops are part of a 12,000-strong force sent to help Russia retake the Kursk region, partly held by Ukraine since August, according to video footage published by the South Korean intelligence service. The troops being sent to Russia are from North Korea’s Eleventh Army, an elite unit known as the “Storm Corps,” according to South Korea’s National Intelligence Service. (FT, 10.24.24)
  • Russian Deputy Defense Minister Col. Gen. Yunus-Bek Yevkurov is responsible for overseeing the training and adaptation of the North Korean military personnel, according to Ukrainian military intelligence. (ISW, 10.24.24)
    • With the balance of forces around Kursk already tilting slowly against Ukraine, “10,000 or so troops who are willing to fight could make a difference,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow in FPRI’s Eurasia program. (FP, 10.25.24)
• U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said there is evidence that North Korean troops are in Russia, but it remained to be seen what they would be doing there. "These are things that we need to sort out," Austin added. Austin said it would BE "very, very serious" if they are preparing to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine, as Kyiv has alleged. “If they’re a cobelligerent, their intention is to participate in this war on Russia’s behalf, that is a very, very serious issue,” Austin said. “It will have impacts not only in Europe — it will also impact things in the Indo-Pacific as well.” Earlier, U.S. officials declined to confirm the presence of North Korean soldiers in Russia who U.S. allies have said may be soon sent into Ukraine. A U.S. senior defense official said those reports, if true, would represent an escalation that "underscores just how desperate the situation is for Russian forces." (WP, 10.21.24, Reuters, 10.23.24, FT, 10.23.24)
• A senior U.S. official confirmed Oct. 23 that thousands of North Korean soldiers were sent to Russia for training, but said that their exact mission remained unclear. "We know that thousands of DPRK troops are in Russia to be trained. We don't know what their mission will be or if they'll go on to fight in Ukraine," the unnamed official said, using an abbreviation for North Korea's official name. "Russia is suffering extraordinary casualties on the battlefield every day. If Russia needs to turn to DPRK for manpower, that's a sign of desperation—not strength—on the part of the Kremlin," the official added. (MT/AFP, 10.23.24)
• North Korea said Oct. 25 any move to send its troops to assist Russia in its war in Ukraine would be in line with international law. (Reuters, 10.25.24)
• South Korea summoned the Russian ambassador in Seoul on Oct. 21 in protest over claims that Pyongyang sent thousands of soldiers to fight in Moscow's war against Ukraine, the South Korean Foreign Ministry said, calling for the immediate withdrawal of the troop deployments. South Korea may soon deploy military intelligence personnel in Ukraine to monitor North Korean troops claimed to be fighting for Russia, the Yonhap news agency reported Oct. 22, citing an anonymous government source. (MT/AFP, 10.22.24, MT/AFP, 10.21.24)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to acknowledge on Oct. 24 that North Korean troops had been deployed to Russia, commenting for the first time on the assessment of Western officials that the reclusive Asian country had joined Russia’s war effort against Ukraine. “Images — that is something serious, if there are images they are a reflection of something,” he said, responding to a question about satellite images appearing to show North Korean troops in Russia. Putin said “he never doubted at all that the North Korean leadership takes our agreements seriously.” The Russian president’s comments alluded to a treaty with Pyongyang that includes an ambiguous mutual assistance clause if either country comes under attack. In a reference to the mutual assistance provisions, Putin added: “What and how we will do [it] is our business within the framework of this article.” Putin’s tongue-in-cheek response, at a conference of emerging-market economies that Russia is hosting, did not explicitly confirm or deny statements made Oct. 23 by the Pentagon, which said that North Korea had sent troops to Russia. (NYT, 10.24.24, FT, 10.25.24)²
• Anton Kobyakov, an adviser to Putin, did not explicitly confirm or deny the reports during a summit on Oct. 23 in Kazan, Russia. ''The Pentagon is not an accountable organization,'' he said in response to a reporter's question. (NYT, 10.23.24)
• “We don’t even know whether we are talking about 1,500, 12,000 or what kind of soldiers are coming to Russia,” said Boris Pistorius, German defense minister. In a meeting with Pistorius in London, John Healey, U.K. defense secretary, denounced the “highly likely” deployment as a “shocking escalation” in the Ukraine war. (FT, 10.23.24)
• Dutch intelligence has confirmed that Russia has deployed at least 1,500 troops from North Korea to fight in the Ukraine war. (Reuters, 10.25.24)
• Even before Kim Jong Un sent troops to support Russia’s fight against Ukraine, there were signs that North Korea’s main backer, China, was unhappy with his regime’s deepening ties with Moscow. In a letter last week seen as signaling Beijing’s growing displeasure, Chinese President Xi Jinping thanked Kim for a congratulatory message on the 75th anniversary of Communist China’s founding—but omitted a traditional reference to North Korea as a “friendly neighboring country.” China’s foreign affairs ministry on Oct. 24 said Beijing was “not aware of the relevant situation” when asked about Pyongyang’s decision to send troops. (FT, 10.25.24)
• According to Ukrainian intelligence, on Oct. 27-28, the first North Korean military will be used by Russia in combat zones. “This is an obvious escalation step by Russia that matters, unlike all the disinformation that has been heard a lot in Kazan these days,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. “This is a clear escalation by Russia,” Zelenskyy said, citing a report on the timing of the deployment by Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky. (RBC.ua, 10.25.24, FT, 10.25.24)
• Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov told The War Zone on Oct. 22 that the first North Korean military personnel are expected to arrive in Kursk Oblast on Oct. 23 but that it is unclear how large the force grouping will be or how they will be equipped. (ISW, 10.22.24)
• When asked to comment on claims that North Korea had sent troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine, Alexander Lukashenko said, “Rubbish ... Knowing his character, Putin would never try to persuade another country to involve its army in Russia’s special operation in Ukraine.” “And if the reports are confirmed?” the reporter asked. “It would be a step toward the escalation of the conflict if the armed forces of any country, even Belarus, were on the contact line,” replied Lukashenko. Lukashenko strongly hinted that Belarusian forces will not fight in Ukraine. (BBC, 10.23.24, ISW, 10.24.24)
  • One of the central mysteries American and South Korean intelligence agencies are focused on is what Kim may be receiving in return for contributing troops. So far, officials say, there is no clear quid pro quo in the transaction; the United States has not picked up intelligence suggesting that Russia agreed to pay for the mercenaries, or provide oil or much-needed military technology in return. But there have been reports of increased cooperation on missile technology, and in that arena, Kim has some very specific needs. (NYT, 10.23.24)
    • North Korea is not donating its men or weapons out of charity. The enhanced cooperation stems from a mutual assistance treaty, signed by Putin and Kim during a fawning dictators’ ceremony in Pyongyang in June 2024. Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Budanov describes the secret provisions of the agreement as a quid pro quo: Russian hard cash and know-how in return for Korean men and missiles. Russia is helping North Korea circumvent sanctions and “strengthen” its nuclear capabilities. In particular, he says, it is transferring some technologies for low-yield tactical nuclear weapons and submarine missile-launch systems. However, there is no independent corroboration of this alarming claim. (The Economist, 10.22.24)
    • Kim had “always wanted” to deploy troops to Ukraine, as it would give him greater leverage over Moscow and potentially allow him to access sophisticated Russian military technologies to boost his ballistic missile, space and nuclear programs, according to Go Myong-hyun, a senior fellow at South Korea’s state-affiliated Institute of National Security Strategy in Seoul. (FT, 10.24.24)
  • Putin's embrace of North Korea shows how Russia's complex economic and political interests on the global stage have been subsumed by the narrow calculus of the war, which the Kremlin has portrayed as an existential struggle for national survival. It also shows how the war in Ukraine has erased the last areas of Russia's cooperation with the West, throwing issues of global importance such as arms control and nuclear nonproliferation into dangerous, uncertain territory. (NYT, 10.24.24)
• Russian lawmakers voted unanimously on Oct. 24 to ratify a strategic partnership agreement between Russia and North Korea that, among other things, provides for “mutual assistance” if either country comes under attack. (MT/AFP, 10.24.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• The BRICS summit’s Kazan declaration, which was adopted on Oct. 23, 2024, said: “We stress the importance of full implementation of the JCPOA endorsed by the UNSCR 2231 (2015) and underscore the importance of a constructive approach based on the good faith by all relevant actors to resume full implementation of the JCPOA commitments by all sides.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.23.24).

See section “Russia’s external policies” below for more.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Kyiv claimed Oct. 24 that Russian forces had executed four captured Ukrainian servicemen in the eastern Donetsk region, the latest war crime allegation against Moscow. (MT/AFP, 10.24.24)
• Russia has not returned the body of Ukrainian journalist Viktoria Roshchyna to her homeland, despite promising to do so, according to a rights group. (RFE/RL, 10.21.24)
• Ukraine is building 20 hospitals underground to avoid Russian bombardments. (WSJ, 10.24.24)
• Ukraine is evacuating the remaining residents of Kurakhove in the country's Donetsk region. It's become a frontline city in recent weeks following Russian advances. (RFE/RL, 10.24.24)
• Some 80% of the high-rise residential buildings were damaged in Izyum in Ukraine's eastern Kharkiv region during the Russian occupation of the city between April and September 2022. (RFE/RL, 10.25.24)
• The preliminary amount of damage after the start of the Ukrainian Armed Forces offensive in the Kursk region exceeded 117 billion rubles, Deputy Governor of the Kursk region Sergei Starodubtsev reported. (Istories, 10.24.24)
• An increase in Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure in recent weeks threatens food shipments to destinations from Gaza to southern Africa, the U.K. warned. (Bloomberg, 10.23.24)
• Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Oct. 22 that the U.S. is nearly ready to offer $20 billion toward a broad Group of Seven-led loan program to help Ukraine. G-7 nations are set to finalize as early as this week a $50 billion loan deal for Ukraine using the profits generated by frozen Russian central bank assets. “We’re 99% there and it’s nailing down just a couple of relatively small things,” Yellen told reporters in Washington. “We’re very close and there’s nothing significant that needs to be still worked out.” (Bloomberg, 10.22.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• On Oct. 20, Ukraine’s armed forces said they targeted a major Russian military production facility in Dzerzhinsk, about 900 kilometers away from the front lines. The drone attack in the Nizhny Novgorod region couldn’t be independently verified. Also, the Ukrainian General Staff said its overnight efforts extended to the Lipetsk-2 military air base in Russia’s western region of Lipetsk, to target “ammunition depots, storage places for fuel and lubricants, and aviation equipment” including advanced fighter jets stationed there. (Bloomberg, 10.20.24)
• On the night of Oct. 21 to 22, Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes targeting distilleries in Russia that reportedly manufacture products for the Russian military. Tula Oblast Gov. Dmitry Milyaev claimed that a Ukrainian drone strike damaged distilleries in Yefremov and Luzhlovsky. Russian opposition outlet Astra reported that the Ukrainian drone strike also damaged local Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) and FSB buildings near the distillery in Yefremov. (ISW, 10.22.24)
• On Oct. 21, Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState.ua reported on its Telegram channel that Russian forces advanced near Nelipivka, Kurakhove, Vodiane and Lysivka. (RM, 10.25.24)
• On Oct. 22, Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState.ua reported on its Telegram channel that Russian forces occupied Novosadove and advanced in Kruhlyakivka, near Bohoyavlenka, Zoryane, Selidove and Novodmytrivka. (RM, 10.25.24)
• On Oct. 22, Russian forces were reported to have advanced over a key waterway in the eastern Ukrainian stronghold of Chasiv Yar, a Ukrainian military official said, marking a setback for Kyiv's embattled forces. The town of Chasiv Yar, which had an estimated pre-war population of around 12,000 people, sits on a strategic hilltop and its capture would likely speed Russian advances deeper in the war-battered Donetsk region. (MT/AFP, 10.22.24)
• On Oct. 23, Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState.ua reported on its Telegram channel that Russian forces advanced in Selydove, Kostiantynivka, Izmailivka and near Bohoyavlenka. (RM, 10.25.24)
• On Oct. 23, Russia launched another series of intense drone and missile strikes on Ukraine. Ukraine's air defenses shot down 57 of the 81 drones launched by Russia at targets in 12 Ukrainian regions, the country's air force announced early on Oct. 23. Another 15 drones were lost above Ukrainian territory, it said. The Russian drones were downed over the Odesa, Mykolayiv, Vinnytsya, Sumy, Cherkasy, Khmelnytskiy, Ternopil, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, Chernihiv and Kharkiv regions, the air force said on Telegram, adding that Odesa was also targeted by a Russian guided missile launched from the Black Sea. (RFE/RL, 10.23.24)
• On Oct. 24, Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState.ua reported on its Telegram channel that Russian forces advanced near Nevske in the Luhansk region. (RM, 10.25.24)
• On Oct. 24, Putin warned that attempts to defeat Russia on the battlefield were "illusory," remarks made ahead of his first meeting with U.N. chief Antonio Guterres on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in more than two years. "I will say directly that these are illusory calculations, that can be made only by those who do not know Russia's history." (TASS, 10.18.24, MT/AFP, 10.24.24)
• On Oct. 25, Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState.ua reported on its Telegram channel that Russian forces advanced in Selydove (Donetsk region), Kostiantynivka, Izmailivka and near Bohoyavlenka (also Donetsk region). (RM, 10.25.24)
• On Oct. 25, it was reported that Russian Land Forces (RLF) have almost certainly advanced into the coal mining town of Selydove, around 13km southeast from the major logistics hub of Pokrovsk. (UKMOD, 10.25.24)
• On Oct. 25, a Russian air strike on the eastern Ukrainian city of Kupyansk on Oct. 24 killed one person and wounded 10 others, regional authorities said. (RFE/RL, 10.24.24)
• On Oct. 25, Putin claimed in an interview with state television channel Rossiya-1 that “about 2,000 Ukrainian troops are blocked” in the Kursk region. “There are several areas of encirclement. In one of these areas, some of the Ukrainian army units were cut off from the state border, and they were blocked,” Putin said (quoted by Interfax). (Meduza, 10.25.24)
  • Putin’s claim is disinformation that does not reflect the real situation, said Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky on Telegram on Oct. 25. "The statement made by the head of the aggressor country at the BRICS summit about the encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region is not true. This is outright disinformation that does not reflect the real situation," the commander-in-chief wrote. (Korrespondent.net, 10.25.24)
  • Ukrainian forces have suffered new setbacks on the battlefield — including, analysts say, ceding up to half of the territory Kyiv claimed during its cross-border offensive into Russia's Kursk region this summer. Konrad Muzyka, a military analyst for Rochan Consulting in Poland, said the Russians have maintained some 33 units in the Kursk area — an increase from 12 in mid-August — and the Ukrainians have deployed about 23 units altogether. (WP, 10.25.24)
• “It's a very tough fight and it's a tough slog," U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said on Oct. 21 of the challenges facing Ukrainian forces.  Now, in the final months of Biden's presidency, he and other administration officials are seeking to help Kyiv develop what they say must be a viable strategy that Ukraine can sustain with a finite supply of weapons and men. “We really have been encouraging them and talking to them about how they can have a strategy that they apply specific military resources toward to have concentrated effect," a senior defense official said. (WP, 10.21.24, Reuters, 10.21.24)
• Gen. Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, stated on Oct. 23 that “So while there have been significant, significant losses in the ground domain, in the rest of the military structure of Russia, there remains a huge amount of capability—both conventional and nuclear—and so it's necessary to keep that in mind.” Cavoli pointed to examples of uncommitted Russian military capability including long-range aircraft, strategic missile forces, defensive units, submarines, and a significant portion of Russia’s tactical aviation, which have yet to engage in the war. (Business Insider, 10.23.24) 
• On the battlefield, things are still looking grim. Russia is in the process of encircling Pokrovsk, an important logistical hub in eastern Ukraine, and advancing farther south, after taking control of the heights around Vuhledar. A senior Ukrainian official says Russia’s next objective might be an advance on the city of Zaporizhzhia, a major industrial center in Ukraine’s south close to a Russian-occupied nuclear-power plant. The same source suggests that Russia may have already taken back as much as half of the territory that Ukraine seized in the Kursk region in August 2024. (The Economist, 10.22.24)
• Russia has significantly increased drone strikes against Ukrainian targets across the country. Attacks have increased from 350 strikes in July, to 750 in August and 1,500 in September, according to two Western officials. (WP, 10.22.24)
• According to U.S. assessments, Russian casualties in the war so far number as many as 615,000—115,000 Russians killed and 500,000 wounded. U.S. and British military analysts put Russian casualties in September at an average of more than 1,200 a day, slightly surpassing the previous highest daily rate of the war that was set in May. Ukrainian officials have zealously guarded their casualty figures, even from the Americans, but a U.S. official estimated that Ukraine had suffered a bit more than half of Russia’s casualties, or more than 57,500 killed and 250,000 wounded. (NYT, 10.21.24)
• Estimates of the numbers of foreigners who have been recruited to fight with the Russians vary from the low thousands to tens of thousands. On Oct. 17, Ukraine’s spy chief, Kyrylo Budanov, claimed that there are nearly 11,000 North Korean troops training in eastern Russia to fight in Ukraine. There is no way to confirm this, though South Korea’s spy agency has stated some training is under way. The highest numbers of non-Russian POWs are from Sri Lanka and Nepal, according to Ukrainian military. (The Economist, 10.20.24)
  • Russia’s Defense Ministry discharged 85 Indian citizens who were misled into joining the army to fight in Ukraine, Indian authorities said Oct. 21, as efforts continue to secure the release of some 20 others remaining in Russia. (MT/AFP, 10.22.24)
• Ukraine’s Military Intelligence announced on Oct. 21 the "elimination" of Russian military pilot Dmitry Golenkov, a chief of staff in Russia’s 52nd heavy bomber aviation regiment who was involved in a deadly missile attack on a shopping center in Ukraine's Kremenchuk in June 2022. (RFE/RL, 10.21.24)
• German prosecutors charged a Russian man with the murder of two Ukrainian soldiers who were receiving medical treatment in southern Germany, media reported Oct. 23. The 57-year-old Russian national was arrested in April after the two Ukrainian soldiers were found stabbed to death at a shopping center in the Bavarian town of Murnau. (MT/AFP, 10.24.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• During his Oct. 21 trip to Kyiv, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced that the Pentagon would send Ukraine a new $400 million shipment of arms, including additional HIMARS ammunition; 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition; 60mm, 81mm and 120mm mortar systems and rounds; tube-launched, optically tracked, wire-guided missiles; Javelin anti-armor systems; M113 armored personnel carriers; satellite communication equipment; and small arms and ammunition. Austin also said U.S. officials would help Ukraine train and equip new units it is building. “We fully understand the moral chasm between aggressor and defender,” Austin said in a speech capping a day of meetings in Ukraine with Zelenskyy and his top military leaders to hash out war strategy. “We will not be gulled by the frauds and the falsehoods of the Kremlin’s apologists.” (NYT, 10.21.24, WP, 10.21.24, ISW, 10.21.24)
  • Ukraine expects to receive $1.6 billion from the U.S. to finance domestic production of long-range weapons. An $800-million tranche to fund the domestic production of drones will arrive in “coming days” and will be followed by the second disbursement of $700 million to $800 million, Zelenskyy told journalists on Oct. 21 in Kyiv after meeting Austin. (Bloomberg, 10.22.24)
• A U.S. official told Fox News the Intelligence Committee (IC) and Pentagon have recommended against modifying a U.S. policy that would allow Ukraine to strike targets deep within Russia using U.S.-made long-range missiles, citing there would be greater costs than benefits. According to the IC and Department of Defense analysis, a change in policy would not have a strategic impact or would not change the course of the war, in part because there are a few targets inside the ATACMS 300-km range. "It would be irresponsible if we didn’t take into account what Russia would do," the official said. The official also said Russia is a "nuclear power capable of doing very bad things both to Ukraine and to the U.S.," referencing warehouses being blown up, and revelations made by the German spy chief last week that Russia was behind an attempted act of sabotage involving a parcel bomb on a plane this summer, which could have pushed Berlin and Moscow closer to war. (Fox News, 10.25.24)
• The U.S. is refocusing its training of Ukrainian F-16 pilots on younger cadets rather than experienced air force members, a decision that could extend by many months the timeline for when Kyiv will have a full squadron of the Western-built aircraft ready for the battlefield. (WSJ, 10.17.24)
• Britain announced that it had completed the training of 200 Ukrainian pilots who will fly F-16 fighter jets provided by Kyiv's Western allies in order to beef up the protection of the embattled country's skies. (RFE/RL, 10.23.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The U.S. has finally finalized plans to give an additional $20bn to Ukraine as part of a G-7 loan backed by profits generated from Russian assets frozen in Europe, with at least half of the money disbursed by the end of the year. The agreement comes on the heels of an announcement that the U.K. will extend an additional £2.3bn loan for military aid to the country as part of a wider effort by G-7 countries to provide $50bn in additional support. (FT, 10.23.24)
• The U.K. will provide $3bn as part of a G-7 loan to Ukraine, leaving only the U.S. and Japan to agree their contributions to the $50bn lending package, which will be repaid with profits generated by future profits from frozen Russian state assets. (FT, 10.22.24)
• Turkey has secretly barred exports to Russia of U.S. military-linked hardware after the Biden administration announced it is preparing fresh sanctions aimed at restricting Russia’s access to goods that sustain its military machine. The U.S. will “unveil strong new sanctions targeting those facilitating the Kremlin’s war machine, including intermediaries in third countries that are supplying Russia with critical inputs for its military,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in Washington. She said the sanctions would be announced as soon as next week. (Bloomberg, 10.22.24)
• The French hypermarket chain Auchan has planned to leave Russia. This was reported by the magazine La Lettre. According to journalists, the company has found a buyer for its Russian business and is in the final stages of negotiations. The name of the potential buyer is not disclosed. (Istories, 10.24.24)
• A sharp increase in U.S. sanctions has spawned a new lobbying industry in Washington, as businesses and governments around the world attempt to shape these economic penalties by hiring former U.S. officials to leverage their connections, a Washington Post investigation has found. a raft of foreign business entities — Kremlin oligarchs, Chinese tech firms, a Serbian arms dealer — has hired lobbyists to try to roll back economic penalties, or have them imposed on rivals. (WP, 10.24.24)
• Russian oligarch Musa Bazhaev still owned a Sardinian luxury resort more than two months after the EU imposed sanctions on him following Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine, a corporate filing shows. (FT, 10.23.24)
• Palladium surged as much as 9.5% after the U.S. asked the Group of Seven allies to consider sanctions on Russian exports of the precious metal. (Bloomberg, 10.24.24)
• The European Union is debating whether to hike tariffs on more Russian agricultural and food products, as well as fertilizers, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 10.24.24)
• Poland ordered the closure of Russia’s consulate in the western city of Poznan due to an alleged sabotage attempt by the Kremlin, Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said Oct. 22. (Bloomberg, 10.22.24)
• The U.S. government is offering a reward of as much as $10 million for information “leading to the identification or location” of the Russian military media outlet Rybar and its employees. (Bell, 10.24.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• In reference to Zelenskyy’s Victory Plan, a senior Ukrainian official, who asked to remain anonymous, says the package should be interpreted as “coercive diplomacy,, or a way to get Russia to negotiate peace on more favorable terms. But the same official was also frank: its escalatory potential had not been well received in Washington. “They say it’s a non-starter, though part of the problem is they don’t tell the [Ukrainian] president that to his face.” (The Economist, 10.22.24) For more on the Victory Plan see the section on Great Power rivalry below.
• Russia putting an end to aerial attacks on Ukrainian energy targets and cargo ships could pave the way for negotiations to end the war, the Ukrainian president has said. Zelenskyy told journalists in Kyiv on Oct. 21 that “when it comes to energy and freedom of navigation, getting a result on these points would be a signal that Russia may be ready to end the war.” If Moscow and Kyiv agreed to end strikes on their respective energy infrastructures, it would be a significant step toward de-escalating the conflict, Zelenskyy said in reference to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. “We saw during the first [peace] summit that there could be a decision on energy security. In other words: we do not attack their energy infrastructures, they don’t attack ours. Could this lead to the end of the war’s hot phase? I think so,” he said. (FT, 10.23.24)
  • On Oct. 17, Zelenskyy said he was open to peace proposals from other countries as long as they were “real” and did not seek to undermine support for his own. “Brazil, you have a plan? Great. The proposition from China, we are not against . . . But, guys, please, don’t divide us,” he said. (FT, 10.18.24)
  • On Oct. 17, Zelenskyy said that “this war will finish when Putin will be isolated, and pushed by other partners to diplomacy.” The Ukrainian president said Western officials floating an arrangement where Kyiv trades Russian-occupied territory for Nato membership had not consulted him. (FT, 10.18.24)
• During his press conference at the BRICS summit on Oct. 24, Putin referred to the peace talks Russian and Ukrainian officials held in Istanbul in the spring of 2022, blaming the Ukrainian side for ending them before a draft deal could be finalized. He also claimed that an aide to the Turkish leader has recently called Kremlin during his visit to New York, reporting that there was a new proposal for talks with Ukraine. Putin said he then agreed to the proposal, but the Ukrainian side “suddenly” rejected the proposal. “It would be better, of course, based on reality and relying on what is happening on the ground, to sit down at the negotiating table and conduct these negotiations,” Putin told reporters on Oct. 24, according to the Kremlin’s transcript of his press conference. “We are ready to consider any options for peace agreements, based on the realities that are developing on the ground. And we are not ready for anything else,” he added. (RM, 10.25.24)
  • In a TV interview, Putin said Russia is open to a “reasonable compromise” but won’t make any concessions to end its war in Ukraine. “We aren’t going to make any concessions here, there will be no trades,” Putin said in an interview with Russian state television published on Oct. 25, after he’d hosted a summit of BRICS countries in Kazan. “We are ready to make reasonable compromises, but I don’t want to go into details right now because there are no substantive negotiations.” (Bloomberg, 10.25.24)
  • Last week Putin said that Russia is ready to hold a dialogue on a peaceful settlement of conflict in Ukraine, but only based on the tentative agreements discussed in Istanbul spring 2022. "We are ready to hold a dialogue on a peaceful settlement of the conflict, but only based on the document that was prepared during extensive negotiations following several months and had been initiated by the Ukrainian side," the Russian president said." (TASS, 10.18.24, MT/AFP, 10.24.24)
• While at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Chinese President Xi Jinping said the world faces "serious challenges" and expressed hope that BRICS could be a "stabilizing force for peace." Xi emphasized the need to promote “a rapid de-escalation" of Russia’s war in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 10.24.24, ISW, 10.23.24) See more on Xi’s participation in the BRICS summit in the section on “Russia’s external policies” below.
• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he wanted the war in Ukraine to be resolved peacefully and "quickly" as he met with Putin at the annual BRICS summit on Oct. 22.  "We have been in constant touch over the conflict between Russia and Ukraine," Modi told Putin after the two shook hands and embraced. "We believe that disputes should only be resolved peacefully. We totally support efforts to quickly restore peace and stability." Putin, in his turn, hailed what he called Russia and India's "privileged strategic partnership" and vowed to build ties further. (MT/AFP, 10.22.24)
• The BRICS summit’s Kazan declaration, which was adopted on Oct. 23, 2024, said: “We recall national positions concerning the situation in and around Ukraine as expressed in the appropriate fora, including the UNSC and the UNGA. We emphasize that all states should act consistently with the Purposes and Principles of the U.N. Charter in their entirety and interrelation. We note with appreciation relevant proposals of mediation and good offices, aimed at a peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.23.24)
• Front and center of Sahra Wagenknecht of Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is her offer of what she calls “peace” in Ukraine. Wagenknecht says she accepts Ukraine’s need for security guarantees in the event of the peace settlement she demands. But her preference would be for them to come from countries like China and Turkey; and Ukraine must certainly be denied NATO membership, since Russian concerns over the alliance inspired the war in the first place. As for Germany, “it would have been wiser if we had held on to the old policy” of “mediating between Russia, eastern Europe and the U.S.” rather than sending Ukraine arms and tanks. (The Economist, 10.24.24)
• On the margins of the BRICS Summit in Kazan, the U.N. Secretary-General met with Putin. The Secretary-General reiterated his position that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was in violation of the United Nations Charter and international law. He further underlined United Nations support for peace, in line with the remarks he delivered at the BRICS summit. (U.N. 10.25.24)
  • Zelenskyy has denied U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres a visit to Kyiv due to his participation in the BRICS summit in Kazan. In an earlier speech to the BRICS summit's delegates delivered in front of Putin, Guterres called for a "just peace" in Ukraine. (Istories, 10.25.24, RFE/RL, 10.24.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• While in Germany last week, U.S. President Joe Biden rallied allies in support of Ukraine. He said that the allies must continue to work tirelessly to ''ensure that Ukraine prevails and Putin fails and NATO remains strong and more united than ever.'' “We're headed into a very difficult winter,'' he added. ''We cannot let up. We cannot.'' (NYT, 10.19.24)
• Zelenskyy is projecting careful confidence over the Western reception to his proposed "victory plan," including his hopes for an eventual invitation to join NATO. But he says that decision will ultimately depend on the U.S. position, which probably won't be announced until after November's presidential election. "Today, we see the consensus of the majority of the allied countries and the restrained position of a few countries," he said in a conversation with journalists that was embargoed until Oct. 22. Zelenskyy last week said a formal invitation to join NATO is “the only way” Ukraine can survive Russia’s invasion per his victory plan. (FT, 10.18.24, WP, 10.22.24)
• Germany and the U.S. are among the major powers slow-walking Zelenskyy’s call for an immediate invitation to join NATO per his victory plan, according to four U.S. and NATO officials and diplomats. “Countries like Belgium, Slovenia or Spain are hiding behind the U.S. and Germany. They are reluctant,” said one of the NATO officials. Hungary and Slovakia are also resisting. (Politico, 10.23.24)
  • Speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF on Oct. 24, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Kyiv's appeals for an immediate invitation to join NATO, stating that "a country at war absolutely cannot become a member of NATO." (Kyiv Independent, 10.25.24)
  • French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot on Oct. 19 announced his country's support for Ukraine's "victory plan" for ending the war with Russia. (RFE/RL, 10.19.24)
  • Speaking on Oct 17, NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte said: “Ukraine will be a member of NATO in the future . . . the question is exactly about the when, [and] I cannot answer that now at this moment.” (FT, 10.18.24)
• Britain and Germany have agreed to strengthen military cooperation and develop sophisticated weapons in a move that reflects growing concern in Europe over global security threats, particularly from Russia. (NYT, 10.22.24)
• Russia's Foreign Ministry on Oct. 22 said it summoned Germany's ambassador to protest a new NATO naval command center along the Baltic Sea coast. On Oct. 21, Germany inaugurated the center to boost defense readiness in the Baltic Sea region as Russia continues to wage war on Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 10.22.24)
• Defense chiefs from the G-7 vowed to support Ukraine's "irreversible path" to eventual NATO membership and pledged continued military support in the "short and long term" as Kyiv battles against Russia's full-scale invasion. The leaders on Oct. 19 also condemned Moscow for its military aggression along with its deployment of "hybrid warfare" and the "irresponsible use of nuclear rhetoric." (RFE/RL, 10.19.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Also see section “Russia’s external policies” below.

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Donald Trump told WSJ in an interview published last week that he had warned Putin not to go to war in Ukraine or he would "hit" Moscow. "I said, 'Vladimir, if you go after Ukraine, I am going to hit you so hard, you're not even going to believe it. I'm going to hit you right in the middle of fricking Moscow,'" Trump purportedly said. "I said, 'We're friends. I don't want to do it, but I have no choice.' He goes, 'No way.' I said, 'Way.'" (Newsweek, 10.21.24)
  • Putin has said he does not remember Trump threatening him with a strike on Moscow. “It’s useless to threaten Russia ... but I do not remember such talk with Trump,” the Russian leader said during a press conference at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, Oct. 24. (Telegraph, 10.24.24)
  • “Trump got carried away. Did he really talk about ‘hitting fricking Moscow?’ Of course not. He's generally smooth as silk in negotiations. And there’s only one answer to such words: your fricking Washington will get hit, too. In general, our relationship with him is quite warm,” deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev wrote on his X account on Oct. 21. (RM, 10.21.24)
• The proposal for a “deterrence package” in Zelenskyy’s victory plan was a way to compensate for Ukraine agreeing to hand over its nuclear weapons following the fall of the Soviet Union, Zelenskyy said. “We gave away and got nothing in return, except for full-scale war and a lot of victims,” said Zelenskyy. “We do not have nuclear weapons, we aren’t in NATO and we won’t be in NATO during the war; that’s why I need this deterrence package.” (FT, 10.23.24)
• China is pressing ahead with plans to rapidly upgrade and expand its nuclear weapons arsenal across land, sea and air, according to a new U.S. assessment that offers the most detailed accounting yet of the country’s bid to catch up to the U.S. in an area where it lagged. The Defense Intelligence Agency’s report details how China is building up a land-based arsenal involving about 300 missile silos, while also expanding its fleet of road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles and further developing a fleet of bombers that carry air-launched ballistic missiles. (Bloomberg, 10.23.24)
• The BRICS summit’s Kazan declaration, which was adopted on Oct. 23, 2024, said: “We note the paramount importance of the efforts aiming at accelerating the implementation of the resolutions on the Establishment of a Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and other Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East, including the Conference convened pursuant to U.N. General Assembly Decision 73/546.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.23.24)

Counterterrorism:

• Putin said on the first day of the BRICS summit that the participants will discuss “peaceful settlement of conflicts, the fight against terrorism and cross-border crime, adaptation to climate change, stability of supply chains, exchange of technologies and knowledge in the broadest sense of the word,” according to the Kremlin. (RM, 10.24.24)
• The BRICS summit’s Kazan declaration, which was adopted on Oct. 23, 2024, said: “We reiterate our unequivocal condemnation of terrorism in all its forms and manifestations whenever, wherever and by whomsoever committed while reaffirming that it should not be associated with any religion, nationality, civilization or ethnic group. We emphasize that terrorism is a common threat, which requires a comprehensive and balanced approach at global and regional levels with due regard to national priorities of States.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.23.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Biden on Oct. 24 signed the first national security memorandum detailing how the Pentagon, the intelligence agencies and other national security institutions should use and protect artificial intelligence technology, putting ''guardrails'' on how such tools are employed in decisions varying from nuclear weapons to granting asylum.  Some of its conclusions are obvious: It rules out, for example, ever letting A.I. systems decide when to launch nuclear weapons; that is left to the president as commander in chief. The memorandum draws from previous government mandates intended to keep human decision makers ''in the loop'' of targeting decisions, or overseeing A.I. tools that may be used to pick targets. But such mandates often slow response times. That is especially difficult if Russia and China begin to make greater use of fully autonomous weapons that operate at blazing speeds because humans are removed from battlefield decisions. (NYT, 10.25.24)
• The BRICS summit’s Kazan declaration, which was adopted on Oct. 23, 2024, said: “We highlight that fair, inclusive and equitable governance of data is critical to enable developing countries to harness the benefits of the digital economy and emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.23.24)
• A group calling itself Anonymous Sudan appeared on the Telegram messaging app in January 2023. Despite the name, cybersecurity researchers long believed that the group served as a front for Russian cybercriminals. For a time, the group posted in the Russian language. And within a month of its creation, Anonymous Sudan announced a partnership with REvil and Killnet, two of the most prominent Russian cybercriminal groups, and took part in joint attacks on Ukrainian computer systems. (NYT, 10.18.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russian oil-product exports are on course to hit the lowest in at least eight years this month amid a sharp drop in refining activity. Seaborne fuel shipments averaged about 1.9 million barrels a day in the first 20 days of October, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. That’s down 11% from the previous month and slightly less than in August, when flows hit the lowest in data going back to the start of 2016. (Bloomberg, 10.25.24)
• China is on track to become the largest market for Russia’s pipeline gas this year, overtaking Europe after the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine capped flows of the fuel to the region. Russia’s gas giant Gazprom PJSC exported 23.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China in the first nine months of the year, or almost 40% above volumes exported the same period a year ago, according to Bloomberg calculations. (Bloomberg, 10.21.24)
• Russia is ready to continue pumping gas through Ukraine after the current gas transit deal expires at the end of the year, but sees indications Ukraine may not be willing to extend the contract, Putin said Oct. 25. (Reuters, 10.25.24)
• More than 50 members of U.S. Congress have signed a letter calling on the U.S. government to toughen sanctions on Russian oil and questioning an exception granted to U.S.-based oil-services company Schlumberger (SLB) that has allowed it to continue operating in the country. (RFE/RL, 10.21.24)
• The U.S. will continue to “tighten the screws” on Russian liquefied natural gas exports to deprive Moscow of funds for its war in Ukraine, according to a senior State Department energy official. “Our goal with Russia is simple: it’s to drive down the revenue it enjoys from its oil and gas resources,” Geoffrey Pyatt, assistant secretary for energy resources, and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said. (Bloomberg, 10.22.24)

Climate change:

• Crucial climate science has been stymied as Russia, which makes up over half the Arctic, continues its war in Ukraine. Data flowing between Western and Russian scientists has slowed to a trickle with Western-imposed sanctions and other restrictions, interrupting work on a host of projects. The stalled collaboration is setting back efforts to monitor the shrinking of the Arctic, which is warming four times faster than the global average and accelerating the planet’s rise in temperature. That threatens to leave governments and policymakers without a clear picture of how fast the Earth is heating up. (NYT, 10.22.24)

Elections interference:

• Russia, as well as Iran and China, have gleefully stoked many of the narratives to portray American democracy as dysfunctional and untrustworthy. “They do have different tactics and different approaches to influence operations, but their goals are the same,” Jen Easterly, the director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency in Washington, said in an interview, referring to foreign adversaries. “Very simply, they’re looking to undermine American trust in our democratic institutions and the election specifically, and to sow partisan discord.” (NYT, 10.23.24)
  • American intelligence agencies have concluded that Russia has sought to bolster the re-election effort of Trump. (NYT, 10.23.24.)
  • Russian trolls are using artificial intelligence, including a deepfake of Vice President Kamala Harris, to try influencing public opinion ahead the U.S. election, according to new research from Microsoft. (Bloomberg, 10.23.24)
  • U.S. officials said new intelligence showed that Moscow had created and spread a staged video falsely accusing Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, the Democratic vice-presidential nominee, of sexual misconduct. The video, which was quickly debunked, is the latest in a series of false narratives that Russian operatives have fabricated this year.  (NYT, 10.23.24.)
• Even after the election is over, intelligence officials expect the same foreign actors to seek to exert influence and “conduct information operations denigrating U.S. democracy through Inauguration Day,” according to a recently declassified memo. Russia and Iran may seek to foment violent protests inside the U.S. in the days and weeks after the Nov. 5 election as voting results are being tabulated and certified, U.S. intelligence agencies warned. Russian-backed actors, in particular, will focus on challenging the election outcome and probably will become more aggressive if Vice President Kamala Harris beats former President Donald Trump, according to the agencies. Russia is considering actions to stoke protests and even violence over the U.S. election results, intelligence officials said on Oct. 22. The intelligence officials drew special attention to the period between Nov. 5 and the Jan. 20 inauguration of the next president. "Russia, Iran and China are better prepared to exploit opportunities in the post-Election Day period, in part because of the lessons drawn from the 2020 election cycle," a U.S. senior official said. (NYT, 10.23.24, Bloomberg, 10.22.24, U.S. News, 10.24.24, WP, 10.23.24)
• John Mark Dougan, a former deputy Palm Beach County sheriff who fled to Moscow and became one of the Kremlin's most prolific propagandists is working directly with Russian military intelligence to pump out deepfakes and circulate misinformation that targets Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign, according to Russian documents obtained by a European intelligence service and reviewed by The Washington Post. (WP, 10.25.24)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• While at the BRICS summit, Putin said Oct. 24 his relationship with the United States after the presidential elections would depend on what attitude Washington adopts, as he welcomed comments by Donald Trump on his desire to end the Ukraine conflict as "sincere." But the Kremlin leader struck a hardline tone, warning the West it was an "illusion" to think Russia could be defeated on the battlefield and that any peace deal would have to recognize Russia's control of swathes of Ukrainian territory "How Russian-American relations will develop after the election will depend on the United States. If they are open, then we will also be open. And if they don't want it, then fine," Putin told reporters in Kazan. (MT/AFP, 10.24.24)
• Elon Musk, the world's richest man and a linchpin of U.S. space efforts, has been in regular contact with Putin since late 2022. The discussions, confirmed by several current and former U.S., European and Russian officials, touch on personal topics, business and geopolitical tensions. At one point, Putin asked the billionaire to avoid activating his Starlink satellite internet service over Taiwan as a favor to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, said two people briefed on the request. The newspaper also reported that the billionaire was having regular conversations with “high-level Russians,” including Putin’s first deputy chief of staff Sergei Kiriyenko. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the only communication the Kremlin has had with Musk was over one telephone call in which he and Putin discussed "space as well as current and future technologies." (WSJ, 10.25.24, MT/AFP, 10.25.24)
• A few months after Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, satellite imagery captured unusual activity at the Russian site, called Sergiev Posad-6, which had been quiet for decades, but it had a notorious Cold War past: It had once been a major research center for biological weapons, with a history of experiments with the viruses that cause smallpox, Ebola and hemorrhagic fevers. (WP, 10.25.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The International Monetary Fund boosted its 2024 growth forecast for Russia. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook estimates that Russia’s GDP grew by 3.6% in 2023, and that it will grow by another 3.6% in 2024 and then by 1.3% in 2025. The previous update of its outlook, which the fund released in July, estimated that Russia’s GDP grew by 3.6% in 2023 and that it would grow by 3.2% in 2024 and then by 1.5% in 2025. The IMF projects U.S. gross domestic product to expand 2.5% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier—half a percentage point higher than a July forecast, which itself was an upgrade from a January estimate. U.S. output rose 3.2% in 2023. China, the world's second-largest economy, is expected to post 4.5% growth this year—a slight downgrade from a prior estimate—and 4.7% in 2025, after expanding 5.4% last year. (WSJ, 10.22.24, RM, 10.22.24)
  • Growth in Russia’s wartime economy has passed its peak after overheating in the first half of the year, according to analysts, even amid robust military production to support the ongoing war in Ukraine. “The peak for growth was passed most likely in the middle of this year,” said Oleg Kuzmin, an economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow. (Bloomberg, 10.23.24)
• Russia's central bank raised its key interest rate to the highest level since the invasion of Ukraine as it struggles to cool an overheating economy. The Bank of Russia on Oct. 25 lifted borrowing costs for the third straight meeting, to 21% from 19%. The key rate was last near that high in late February 2022 when the central bank countered a slump in the ruble that followed the start of a lengthening war on the country's neighbor. (WSJ, 10.25.24)
  • Sergey Chemezov, CEO of the state-owned Rostec, criticized the Russian central bank's elevated key interest rate, which, following his comments, was raised by an additional two percentage points on Friday to a record 21 percent. "There is no 20 percent profitability anywhere. Maybe in the drug trade, but even the sale of weapons does not bring such a profit," he said. (Newsweek, 10.25.24)
• Russia’s wheat production is seen shrinking for a third year after a lack of rain has delayed plantings in the world’s top exporter. Wheat production in 2025 is expected to total 80.1 million tons, according to consultancy SovEcon. That would make it the smallest harvest since the 2021–22 season, putting pressure on already tight global stockpiles. (Bloomberg, 10.22.24)
• Russia is facing a deficit of ice-class cargo vessels for its gigantic Northern Sea Route project as the nation cannot build the fleet on its own, according to Deputy Prime Minister Yury Trutnev. Russian shipyards have the capacity to construct only 16 more Arctic cargo vessels by 2030 out of at least 70 needed, Trutnev said. (Bloomberg, 10.24.24)
• Yulia Navalnaya, Alexei Navalny’s widow said she plans to run for president of Russia after Putin leaves office and free and fair elections in the country become possible. (MT/AFP, 10.21.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russian state weapons group Rostec may halt exports of its high-tech goods including jets, air defense systems and ships to fulfil the demands of Moscow’s war in Ukraine, its chief executive has warned. “Unfortunately we cannot deliver everything [for export] in time, because first and foremost it is important to supply our army,” Sergei Chemezov told senators on Oct. 23. In August, Chemezov said Rostec did not have the staff to fulfil the sharp rise in state orders, even though its workforce grew by 70,000 to 660,000 in 2023. (FT, 10.23.24)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• In a landmark ruling, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) said Russia’s “foreign agent” law violates the European Convention on Human Rights, saying it is "arbitrary" and used in an "overly broad and unpredictable way." The case was brought to the court by 107 plaintiffs, including major media outlets and human rights organizations such as RFE/RL’s Russian Service (Radio Svoboda) and the Memorial human rights group. (RFE/RL, 10.22.24)
• The commander of the Chechen special forces "Akhmat" Apti Alaudinov stated that Russian soldiers committed 187 crimes in the Kursk region, but none of them were committed by "Akhmat" fighters. According to Alaudinov, the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the Kursk region Viktor Kosarev told him about this. (RFE/RL, 10.23.24)
• Law enforcement authorities in southwestern Russia’s Kursk region searched the business of a regional lawmaker over reported defense failures that Ukrainian forces exploited during their cross-border incursion this summer. (MT/AFP, 10.23.24)
• A local politician in central Russia’s Vladimir region was charged with using slave labor and defrauding a soldier who fought in the Ukraine war, regional investigators said Oct. 25. According to the Vladimir region branch of Russia’s Investigative Committee, the politician allegedly led an organized criminal group that stole 1 million rubles ($10,350) from a soldier’s bank account between July and October. (MT/AFP, 10.25.24)
• A Moscow court said Oct. 22 that French researcher Laurent Vinatier filed an appeal against the three-year prison sentence handed to him last week for breaking Russia's “foreign agent” laws. Vinatier, a 48-year-old researcher working for a Swiss conflict mediation NGO, was arrested in Moscow in June and charged with gathering information on Russia's military without being registered as a “foreign agent. (MT/AFP, 10.22.24)

• Russian law enforcement authorities have arrested one current and one former deputy energy minister on suspicion of fraud. Federal Security Service (FSB) agents reportedly first arrested Anatoly Yanovsky, who oversaw policy on Russia’s coal industry as deputy energy minister between 2008 and 2021. Current Deputy Energy Minister Sergei Mochalnikov was later arrested alongside three other unidentified people as part of an investigation into Yanovsky, Kommersant reported. (MT/AFP, 10.24.24)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia hosted the first summit since BRICS expanded to nine members in January, with the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia joining Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa in the organization. Leaders of 32 countries, as well as top officials of regional organizations and United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, attends the three-day summit starting Oct. 22 in Kazan, Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters. More than 30 nations ranging from Thailand to Nicaragua and NATO-member Turkey have expressed interest in joining BRICS, though existing members are split over the wisdom of further expansion for now. (Bloomberg, 10.22.24, Bloomberg, 10.23.24) For a comparison of BRICS members’ combined national power with that of its “rival” the G-7, see this blog post in RM.
  • For three uninterrupted days this week, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, basked in the attention of other world leaders in the picturesque Russian city of Kazan, along the banks of the Volga River during the BRICS summit. While in Kazan Putin participated in 22 events, including 16 bilateral meetings³ The atmosphere was upbeat as the leaders toe tapped during a concert of traditional Russian music, and Mr. Modi gave a thumbs up as Mr. Xi cracked a smile during a conversation with Mr. Putin. Organizers said 35 states and six international organizations were represented. The summit was the largest geopolitical event hosted by Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Every continent besides North America is now represented in BRICS. (NYT, 10.25.24, WP, 10.25.24, Russian TV Channel 1⁴, 10.25.24)⁵
• The main agenda item of the summit was a Russian proposal to circumvent the U.S. dollar by setting up a new payments messaging system known as “Brics Bridge.” Using blockchain, tokens and digital currencies, it has been touted in Russia as an alternative to Swift, the secure messaging system used to handle trillions of dollars in bank payments around the world. Despite the bonhomie, however, there have been few practical steps towards the proposed payments system. The main problem with the proposal is that the U.S. has made it clear to third countries that working with Russia’s war machine will cost them access to the dollar, hampering the Kremlin’s efforts to build a sanctions-proof payments network. Nonetheless, the Russian proposal is being taken seriously by central bank officials attending the IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington this week. (FT, 10.24.24)
  • The BRICS summit’s Kazan declaration, which was adopted on Oct. 23, 2024, said: “We recognize the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) being an important mechanism to forestall short-term balance of payments pressures and further strengthen financial stability. We express our strong support for the CRA mechanism improvement via envisaging alternative eligible currencies and welcome finalization of the amendments to the CRA documents.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.23.24)
• The Kazan Declaration, which was adopted on the second day of the BRICS summit in Kazan, on Oct. 23, mentioned Russia's war in Ukraine once. The declaration states that all signatories should act in accordance with the principles of the U.N. Charter—including the provision on respect for territorial integrity—and that BRICS states welcome "relevant" offers of mediation aimed at ensuring a peaceful settlement of the war through dialogue and diplomacy. (ISW, 10.23.24)
• Putin said the newly expanded BRICS group showed that a “multipolar world” is being created, in a challenge to the U.S.-dominated global order. BRICS “meets the aspirations of the main part of the international community, the so-called world majority,” Putin said Oct. 23 at the formal opening of the leaders’ summit in Russia’s Kazan. “The process of forming a multipolar world is under way,” Putin said on Oct. 23 to his guests, including India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and China’s President Xi Jinping, as they sat around an inordinately large, round conference table. (FT, 10.24.24, Bloomberg, 10.23.24)
• Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi both praised expanding relations with Russia at bilateral meetings with Putin on Oct. 22. China and India are also on a path to normalizing relations after a four-year border standoff, with Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping holding their first bilateral talks in two years on Oct. 23. (Bloomberg, 10.24.24, Bloomberg, 10.22.24)
  • Xi on Oct. 22 hailed his country's ties with Russia in a "chaotic" world as he met Putin. "The world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, and the international situation is chaotic and intertwined," Xi told Putin, praising the "profound friendship" between their two countries. China and Russia, Xi said, "have continuously deepened and expanded comprehensive strategic coordination and practical cooperation." Ties have "injected strong impetus into the development, revitalization and modernization of the two countries," the Chinese leader said. And they have "made important contributions to upholding international equity and justice," he added. In his remarks to Xi, Putin referred to the relationship between the two countries as “the comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction,” according to the Kremlin. (MT/AFP, 10.22.24, RM, 10.22.24)
  • Modi said BRICS shouldn’t project itself as an alternative to global organizations. “We must be careful to ensure that this organization does not acquire the image of one that is trying to replace global institutions,” Modi said at closed plenary session of the BRICS leaders’ summit. The group should work to reform institutions like the United Nations Security Council and multilateral lenders, he said. In his remarks to Modi, Putin referred to the relationship between Russia and India as the “especially privileged strategic partnership,” according to the Kremlin. (Bloomberg, 10.24.24, RM, 10.24.24)
    • A Chinese-Indian détente which could shake up regional geopolitics is now under way. On Oct. 21st Indian authorities said they had reached an agreement with China on patrolling rights that resolved the border standoff. The next day, China’s foreign ministry confirmed that a deal had been reached. Then, on Oct. 23rd, Modi met Xi, on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia. It was their first official bilateral meeting since 2019. (Economist, 10.24.24)
• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian described ties with Russia as “strategic” as he met counterpart Vladimir Putin at the BRICS summit, which his nation is attending for the first time as a full member. “We are getting new possibilities for joint work in the international arena,” Putin said in televised remarks Oct. 23. Putin also observed that “Russia's and Iran's approaches to the global agenda are close or completely coincide,” according to the Kremlin. In his turn Pezeshkian expressed hope that he and Putin will soon sign a new Russian-Iranian treaty. (Bloomberg, 10.23.24, RM, 10.23.24) Last month secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu said Russia and Iran will sign a new basic interstate treaty soon. (Reuters, 09.10.24)
• Indonesia has started the process of becoming part of the BRICS in a sign of growing influence for the group that’s positioned itself as an alternative to the U.S.-led global order. Southeast Asia’s largest economy expressed its interest in joining the bloc at the BRICS Plus Summit in Kazan, Russia on Oct. 24. (Bloomberg, 10.25.24)
• The participation of EU partner nations in the BRICS summit in Russia hosted by Vladimir Putin is a message for Brussels to stop “lecturing” other parts of the world, said European Council president Charles Michel. (FT, 10.25.24)
• Economist Alexandra Prokopenko, from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia center, told The Washington Post that it remains difficult to define the function of the group or even a substantive agenda from the summit—in large part because the members are so different in their political and economic systems. (WP, 10.25.24)
• A group of Russian warships arrived in Myanmar to join maritime exercises with the military junta's navy, state media in the Southeast Asia country reported Oct. 21. (MT/AFP, 10.21.24)
• Russia provided targeting data for Yemen’s Houthi rebels as they attacked Western ships in the Red Sea with missiles and drones earlier this year, helping the Iranian-backed group assault a major artery for global trade and further destabilizing the region. (WSJ, 10.24.24)
• Trade between Russia and the United Arab Emirates tripled over the last three years, said President Vladimir Putin as he hosted UAE ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Moscow ahead of official talks on Oct. 21. Bilateral investments between Russia and the UAE have reached $7 billion, he said in remarks published on the Kremlin’s website Sunday. (Bloomberg, 10.20.24)
• Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Oct. 20, the first such conversation between the two in 2 1/2 years, according to the Serbian leader. (RFE/RL, 10.20.24)
• Serbia’s Deputy Prime Minister said Oct. 24 that his government does not endorse Russian emigres living in the country who stage protests against the Kremlin. (MT/AFP, 10.24.24)
• Pro-Russia parties are gaining ground in Bulgaria ahead of a parliamentary vote on Sunday, as Moscow capitalizes on continued political instability in the EU and Nato’s south-eastern member. (FT, 10.25.24)

Ukraine:

• U.S. Undersecretary of State Uzra Zeya, during a visit to Kyiv, underscored "unwavering U.S. solidarity" with Ukraine against Moscow's aggression and vowed continued support for Kyiv's efforts to battle corruption at home. (RFE/RL, 10.19.24)
  • Ukraine’s prosecutor general, Andriy Kostin, said he was stepping down to take responsibility for what he described in a statement on Oct. 22 evening as ''the obviously immoral situation with fake disabilities of state officials.'' The most recent accusations of a draft-dodging scheme in Ukraine came with the arrest this month of the head of the Center for Medical and Social Expertise in the western region of Khmelnytsky. Investigators said they had found nearly $6 million in cash at her home and the homes of several relatives, and released footage showing stacks of bills spread out on a bed. Ukrainian news media later reported that some 50 prosecutors in the region had been accused of obtaining fake disability certificates from the local medical commission, prompting the office of the general prosecutor to launch an internal investigation in prosecutors’ offices across the country. Ukraine’s domestic intelligence agency, the S.B.U., said on Oct. 22 that 64 officials from regional medical commissions had been put under investigation on suspicion of participating in corruption schemes this year, with nine already convicted. (NYT, 10.23.24)
  • Corruption has been a continuing problem in military procurement in Ukraine and Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov told David Ignatius that some Western partners had complained about dealing with a purchasing company called Special Techno Export, or STE, which was overseen by the military intelligence service, known as the GUR, headed by Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov. STE was "infamous for getting into money-laundering scandals," according to an article this month. Umerov told me that he launched an audit of STE and eventually put it under the ministry's direct control. Umerov said he had advised Budanov to focus "on intelligence rather than acquisition." (WP, 10.20.24) 
  • According to the head of Ukraine’s tax service, in two days this service checked disability claims by members of its management and some 17 individuals with such claims were identified. Of these, only one employee received a disability as a result of being wounded at the front. (RBC.ua, 10.25.24)
• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara for talks on cooperation in the defense sector and the importance of free navigation in the Black Sea, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said in an emailed statement Oct. 21. The meeting came ahead of Erdoğan’s visit this week to Russia, where he is scheduled to attend the summit of leaders from the BRICS nations, according to the TASS news agency. (Bloomberg, 10.21.24)
• Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov and his associates are removing and selling off modern metallurgical equipment from Ukraine’s occupied Azovstal steel mills in Mariupol, shipping scrap metal to Russia for use by its sanctions-crimped carmakers and hawking industrial gases to Moscow's space program, according to the managers and documents. (WSJ, 10.21.24)
• A Ukrainian citizen arrested in Poland on suspicion of preparing sabotage planned to set fire to a factory in the city of Wroclaw, the Polish Foreign Ministry has announced. (RFE/RL, 10.22.24)
• Ukraine’s national debt is projected to exceed 100% of its GDP by 2025, according to a new forecast from the IMF. The IMF estimates that Ukraine's debt will reach 95.6% of GDP this year and rise to 106.6% by 2025. The debt level is expected to continue increasing slightly in 2026 before decreasing by five percentage points to 102.6% in 2027. (BNE, 10.25.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Belarus will hold its next presidential election on Jan. 26, 2025 the country's Central Election Commission announced Oct. 23. (MT/AFP, 10.23.24)
• Russia and Belarus general staffs have begun preparations to hold joint military drills called Zapad-2025, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said Oct. 23 on the ministry’s Telegram channel. Khrenin didn’t elaborate on how many troops will be involved and where the joint military drills will take place. Russia and Belarus regularly hold their Zapad military exercises, which are among the biggest drills held by the allies and usually involve responding to perceived threats from the West. The war games in late 2021 amassed as many as 200,000 troops as Russia used them as cover to prepare its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 10.23.24)
• Russian Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov said Moscow will provide assistance to Minsk—which could include Russian boots on the ground— if it is asked to help counter attempts to “destabilize” 2025 presidential elections. (RFE/RL, 10.22.24)
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Oct. 24 that his country is ready to become an “active member” of the BRICS group of countries. (MT/AFP, 10.24.24)
• Moldova's Oct. 20 European Union (EU) referendum passed by an extremely narrow margin in large part due to support from the Moldovan diaspora, and current Moldovan President Maia Sandu will face Alexandr Stoianoglo in a second round of voting on November 3. The Moldovan Central Election Commission (CEC) completed the vote count on Oct. 21 and reported that 50.46 % (751,235) voted in favor of the EU referendum and that 49.54 % (737,639) voted against—a difference of only 13,596 votes. The CEC reported that Sandu took first place in the presidential election with 42.45 % (656,354) and Stoianoglo took second with 25.98 % (401,726). Sandu failed to gain the majority vote required to win in the first round, and she and Stoianoglo will move to the second round. (ISW, 10.21.24)
  • Incumbent Moldovan President Maia Sandu and Russian-backed candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo have agreed to hold a public election debate on Oct. 27 ahead of a tense November 3 presidential runoff. (RFE/RL, 10.23.24)
  • Moldovan officials have accused 37-year-old Israeli-born billionaire and convicted fraudster Ilan Shor of playing a leading role in Russian-backed interference aimed at influencing the Moldovan elections and derailing the country’s course to EU membership. (Times of Israel, 10.22.24)
  • Over $24 million was transferred from Russia to Moldova via the Promsvyazbank (PSB) app in October alone, following $15 million sent in September, Moldova's chief of police, Viorel Cernautanu, announced on Oct. 24 at a press conference held four days after the pro-EU referendum and first round of the presidential elections. (Meduza, 10.25.24)
• Russian spies were watching Georgia’s government and major companies in a comprehensive espionage and hacking campaign over years, scooping up information and gaining powers to potentially sabotage critical infrastructure. The Foreign Ministry, Finance Ministry, central bank and key energy and telecommunications providers were penetrated, according to documents and technical reports seen by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 10.22.24)
• Tens of thousands of pro-Europe Georgians took to the streets of Tbilisi on Oct. 20 to rally against the ruling Georgian Dream party, which has been accused of being Russia-friendly, ahead of parliamentary elections that will likely decide the direction of the South Caucasus nation’s future. (RFE/RL, 10.21.24)
• "We're not influencing or interfering in Georgia's affairs," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "It's up to the Georgians to make their own decisions… But we're witnessing completely unprecedented attempts by the West to interfere. They are not only trying to twist Tbilisi's arm, they're literally trying to dictate terms," Peskov added. (MT/AFP, 10.25.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• The notion that Ukraine would be winning if only the U.S. had supplied more advanced weapons is "one of the greatest myths in Washington," said Colin Kahl, who served as the Pentagon's top policy official until July 2023. (WSJ, 10.21.24)

Footnotes

1. Putin’s remarks may indicate that the DPRK soldiers may be, indeed, headed to the Kursk region.
2. Full text of Putin’s remarks at the press conference in Russian is available here.
3. The Kremlin’s description of these bilaterals can be found in Russian on the Kremlin website.
4. Russian government controlled, pro-Kremlin in its broadcasts. 
5. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva canceled a planned trip to Russia on Oct. 20 for an annual BRICS summit after suffering a head injury at his home the day prior. (Bloomberg, 10.21.24)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Kremlin.ru shared under a Creative Commons 4.0 license.