4 Things to Know

1. The White House canceled the planned Trump-Putin summit and imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies after an Oct. 20 call between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov revealed that the Kremlin is clinging to its long-held positions, namely that Ukraine hand over control of the entire Donbas region as part of any settlement, U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal.¹ According to CNN, it was not only Vladimir Putin’s maximalist demands on Kyiv, but also his refusal to agree to an immediate ceasefire and Russia’s continued strikes on civilians in Ukraine that “all added up, in Donald Trump’s mind, to a clear signal that nothing really had changed.” “I just felt it was time,” Trump himself said moments after the new sanctions were announced on the pair of Russia’s oil giants, Rosneft and Lukoil.² Commenting on the sanctions, Putin said they will have “serious implications for us, but they will not significantly affect our economic well-being,”³ while his deputy at Russia’ Security Council Dmitry Medvedev wrote that the U.S. has now "fully embarked on the warpath against Russia,” according to Kremlin.ru and WSJ, respectively. With Rosneft and Lukoil penalized, three-quarters of Russian oil exports will come from companies under new U.S. sanctions, according to Kommersant’s calculations.⁴ Analysts say the impact of blacklisting Rosneft and Lukoil will hinge on three things: how well they are enforced, the reaction of major markets in India and China and whether Moscow can circumvent the measures, according to WSJ.⁵ The U.S. announcement was coordinated with the EU, which adopted its own new package of sanctions targeting Russian energy, banks, crypto exchanges and entities in China, according to the European Council, Financial Times and Bloomberg.
2. Putin threatens an overwhelming response to use of Western long-range missiles by Ukraine for deep strikes into Russia even as Trump denies authorizing use of such missiles for long-range strikes. On Oct. 22, WSJ wrote, citing U.S. officials, that “the Trump administration has lifted a key restriction on Ukraine’s use of some long-range missiles provided by Western allies.” “U.S. officials said they expect Ukraine to conduct more cross-border attacks using the Storm Shadow, which is launched from Ukrainian aircraft and can travel more than 180 miles. The U.S. can restrict Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadow because the missiles use American targeting data,” according to WSJ. Speaking on the same day,  however, Trump rejected the WSJ report. “The Wall Street Journal story on the U.S.A.’s approval of Ukraine being allowed to use long range missiles deep into Russia is FAKE NEWS!” Trump wrote on Truth Social, according to The Hill. Despite this denial and Trump’s earlier decision not to allow supplies of Tomahawks to Ukraine, the Kremlin still felt it necessary to issue another warning. In a choreographed Q&A on Oct. 23, Putin was asked by Russian media: “Regarding the use of Western long-range weapons, how do you personally assess the evidently contradictory signals coming from Washington? Recently, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. has lifted a key restriction on the use of such weapons. ... In your view, is this still an escalation?” Putin’s answer was: “This is an attempt at escalation. However, if such weapons are used to strike Russian territory, the response will be very serious, if not overwhelming. Let them think about that.”
3. Putin oversees test-launches of long-range missiles operated by all three elements of Russia’s strategic nuclear triad. On Oct. 22, Putin oversaw a strategic nuclear forces exercise involving launches of a Yars ICBM from Plesetsk, of a Sineva SLBM from the Bryansk submarine in the Barents Sea and “a volley of air-launched cruise missile” fired by Tu-95MS bombers. The exercise "evaluated the readiness of military command bodies and the operational staff’s proficiency in organizing and managing the troops (forces) under their command,” according to the Kremlin. Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov “was a bit more specific”: the goal of the exercise was to "practice the procedures for authorizing the use of nuclear weapons,” according to renowned Russian nuclear forces expert Pavel Podvig.
4. In the week of Oct. 14–21, 2025, Russia gained 33 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, down from the previous week’s gain of 48 square miles, according to the Oct. 22, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In the past four weeks (Sept. 23–Oct. 21, 2025), Russian forces gained 128 square miles of Ukrainian territory, a decrease from the 206 square miles these forces gained during the previous four-week period (Aug. 26–Sept. 23, 2025), according to the card, which analyzes ISW data for measuring changes in territorial control in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Since Jan. 1, 2025, average Russian monthly gains have been 168 square miles and, as of Oct. 21, 2025, Russia controlled 19% of Ukraine’s territory, according to the card.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Work has started to repair damaged power lines to Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant after a lengthy outage following the establishment of local ceasefire zones, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog said Oct. 18. The site, occupied by Russian forces since March 2022, lost its connection to the grid on Sept. 23 for the 10th time — marking the longest outage of external power supply to the facility since Russia invaded Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 10.18.25)
• Urenco Ltd., Europe’s top nuclear fuel maker, will double its expansion in the Netherlands, adding 1.5 million separative-work units by 2030—enough to supply over 10 reactors yearly—as Europe and the U.S. phase out Russian-enriched uranium. (Bloomberg, 10.20.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• On Oct. 16, the Ukrainian General Staff stated that Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) soldiers within Russia's Kursk region are coordinating reconnaissance for, and enabling, Russian strikes into Ukraine. This is the first time DPRK troops have been reported as directly supporting or facilitating Russian offensive operations into sovereign Ukrainian territory. (UK MOD X Account, 10.24.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov called on the West to seek diplomatic solutions to the Iranian nuclear issue and warned against the use of force. Ryabkov accused the West of undermining the U.N. Security Council’s authority and bulldozing international law in relation to Iran, emphasizing that most countries see Western actions as a “raider attack” on the Security Council. (Kommersant, 22.10.25)
• The ambassadors and permanent representatives of Iran, Russia, and China have sent a joint letter to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi. The diplomats called the European countries’ move to activate the sanctions “snapback” illegal, and stated that all provisions of Resolution 2231 have expired, ending the IAEA Director General’s reporting on verification and monitoring measures tied to the Iran nuclear deal. (News.Az, 10.24.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• The Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor’s Office said that Russian troops executed at least four civilians sheltering in Zvanivka, Bakhmutsky Raion, on Oct. 20. (ISW, 10.23.25)
• Ukrainian volunteer Denys Khrystov published footage on Oct. 19 showing civilians murdered by Russian forces near a railway line in Pokrovsk, confirmed by Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry as a Russian sabotage act. (ISW, 10.21.25)
• Ukraine and Russia conducted another exchange of soldiers’ bodies on Oct. 23. According to Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, Russia returned 1,000 bodies it claimed were deceased Ukrainian servicemembers, while Ukraine released the bodies of 31 Russian soldiers killed in action. (ISW, 10.23.25)
• Recent Russian attacks have knocked out about 60% of Ukrainian natural gas production, forcing Ukraine to spend €1.9 billion on winter fuel imports. ISW assesses this sustained strike campaign aims to weaken energy security, morale, and industrial capacity ahead of winter. (ISW, 10.21.25)
• Ukrainian authorities have delayed central heating to preserve fuel, and Naftogaz is racing to stockpile more gas—already boosted to 13.2 billion cubic meters—but needs another $2.2 billion to secure supplies for winter. (Wall Street Journal, 10.20.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:⁶

• In the past week, Oct. 14–21, 2025, Russia has gained 33 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, down from the previous week’s gain of 48 square miles. In the past four weeks (Sept. 23–Oct. 21, 2025), Russian forces gained 128 square miles of Ukrainian territory, a decrease from the 206 square miles these forces gained during the previous four-week period (Aug. 26–Sept. 23, 2025). Since Jan. 1, 2025, average Russian monthly gains have been 168 square miles. As of Oct. 21, 2025, Russia controls 19% of Ukraine’s territory, according to the Oct. 22, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 10.22.25)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia used over 3,270 drones and 1,370 guided bombs this week alone. (The Moscow Times, 10.19.25)

Friday, Oct. 17, 2025

• On Oct. 17, Ukraine’s DeepState  OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Novoivanivka, Torske and in Pokrovsk. (RM, 10.24.25)
• By Oct. 13, Russian casualties had risen nearly 60% since the start of the war, totaling 984,000–1,438,000 (with 190,000–480,000 dead), and over 100,000 Russians died this year alone, according to the Economist. Equipment losses include 12,541 tanks/armored vehicles and 2,674 artillery/missile systems. (The Economist, 10.17.25)

Top of Form

Saturday, Oct. 18, 2025

• On Oct. 18, Ukraine’s DeepState  OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Filiya, Malynivka and in Okhotnyche. (RM, 10.24.25)

Sunday, Oct. 19, 2025

• On Oct. 19, Ukraine’s DeepState  OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Kupyansk, Vovchansk, Plavni, near Toretsk and Bila Hora. (RM, 10.24.25)
• On the night of Oct. 18-19, Ukrainian forces struck the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in Samara Oblast and the Orenburg natural gas processing plant in Russia, causing large fires and damage to primary processing units. The Novokuibyshevsk refinery processes about 4.9 million tons of oil annually and produces over 20 commercial products. The Orenburg plant is the largest facility of its kind in the world. It handles up to 45 billion cubic meters of gas per year and serves Kazakhstan’s major Karachaganak field. (ISW, 10.19.25, RFE/RL, 10.20.25)

Monday, Oct. 20, 2025 

• On Oct. 20, Ukraine’s DeepState  OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Malynivka, Poltavka and Kalynivske. (RM,  10.24.25)
• Ukraine is increasingly deploying land drones—remote-controlled robots packed with explosives or equipped with machine guns—to help break the deadlock on the front lines. In June, Ukrainian forces used a land drone to force Russian soldiers to surrender along a key tree line in Kharkiv region, marking a first in the conflict. (Washington Post, 10.20.25)
• U.S. President Donald Trump cast doubt on Ukraine’s ability to defeat Russia. “I don’t think they will, but they could still win it,” Trump told reporters in the White House on Oct. 20. “I never said they would win it. I said they could win. Anything can happen.” (Bloomberg, 10.20.25)
• The former deputy mayor and head of urban planning in the southern Russian city of Chelyabinsk has been killed in the war in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 10.21.25)

Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025

• On Oct. 21, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Ukrainian Defense Forces regained positions near Novyi Shakhove and Kucheriv Yar. The Russian forces occupied Poltava and advanced near Novotoretske, Shakhove, Ivanivka, Okhotnyche and Novovasylivka. (RM, 10.24.25)
• On Oct. 21, Ukrainian officials reported Russian forces launched more than 100 missiles and drones, hitting 10 locations and causing power outages in Chernihiv, Cherkasy and Kyiv regions. (ISW, 10.21.25)
• A residential building in the Russian town of Bataysk, about 15 kilometers (9 miles) from Rostov-on-Don, was damaged after a drone strike partially destroyed an exterior wall on its upper floors. (MT/AFP, 10.21.25)
• Ukraine is deploying around 9,000 drones per day to fend off Russia’s ongoing assaults,. That number includes bombers, intelligence and logistics drones, Ivan Pavlenko, chief of the electronic warfare directorate of Ukraine’s armed forces, said via webstream at the Cipher Brief conference on Oct. 21. “I think that today it would be about seven, eight, maybe nine thousand drones per day,” Pavlenko said, when asked about Ukraine’s drone use. (Bloomberg, 10.21.25)
• Maj. Gen. Mykhailo Drapatyi has been appointed commander of Ukraine’s newly formed Joint Forces Task Force, which will oversee all Ukrainian, National Guard and Border Guard units in Kharkiv Oblast. (ISW, 10.21.25)
• On Oct. 21 UK MOD  reported that in September 2025 Russia launched approximately 5,500 one way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWA UAS) against Ukraine. This is a significant increase on the 4,100 launched in August 2025, which was almost certainly limited due to Russia attempting to demonstrate a purported willingness to take part in meaningful negotiations. So far in Oct. 2025, Russia has already launched more than 3,000 OWA UAS. (UK MOD X Account, 10.21.25)
• On Oct. 21 UK MoD reported that Russia maintains a high strike tempo, having conducted four large scale strike packages using its Long Range Aviation (LRA) bomber fleet in Sept. 2025. This includes a Sept. 7, 2025 strike that saw more than 800 munitions launched, predominantly OWA UAS. (UK MOD X Account, 10.21.25)

Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2025

• On Oct. 22, Ukraine’s DeepState  OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Verbove, Stepove and Novohryhorivka. (RM, 10.24.25)
• On Oct. 22, Russia launched a massive wave of missile and drone attacks across Ukraine, killing at least seven people—including two children and a young mother—and striking energy and civilian infrastructure in at least ten regions, including Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro and a kindergarten in Kharkiv. Ukraine’s air force said Russia had launched 28 ballistic and cruise missiles and 405 drones predominantly aimed at energy and railway infrastructure The Russian defense ministry claimed the attacks targeted facilities supporting Ukraine’s military-industrial complex in response to alleged Ukrainian strikes on Russian civilians, while Zelenskyy condemned the strikes as “vile,” stating they demonstrated Russia feels insufficient pressure to end the war, and called for more long-range Western weapons. The attacks came shortly after Trump postponed a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin and withheld Tomahawk missile deliveries, actions analysts and European leaders say have emboldened Moscow and stalled peace efforts. (New York Times, 10.22.25, Financial Times, 10.22.25, Bloomberg, 10.22.25, RFE/RL, 10.22.25)
• Ukrainian forces struck Russian energy and defense industrial sites overnight on Oct. 21–22, including Dagestan’s Makhachkala Oil Refinery (fueling Russia’s Caspian Flotilla) and the Saransk Mechanical Plant in Mordovia, which produces munitions and detonators. Footage shows explosions at both sites, and Russian regional leaders acknowledged damage. (ISW, 10.22.25)
  • Ukraine’s military said it had used Franco-British Storm Shadow missiles to hit a Russian chemical plant in the Bryansk region that produces gunpowder and explosives to fuel Moscow’s war machine. (Financial Times, 10.22.25)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry announced it will deploy active reservists to protect critical infrastructure in the Russian rear, such as energy and transit facilities, claiming this is not preparation for wider mobilization. However, ISW notes this likely sets the stage for future combat deployments. (ISW, 10.22.25)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said Oct. 22 that it had arrested a man in the Far Eastern Amur region on suspicion of treason for allegedly helping Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 10.22.25)

Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025

• On Oct. 23, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Ukrainian Defense Forces drove the enemy back near Kucheriv Yar. The Russian forces advanced near Hrodivka, Volodymyrivka and Stepnohirsk. (RM, 10.24.25)
• Russian attacks overnight and into the early hours of Oct. 23 killed one rescue worker in Ukraine, disrupted train services and damaged a synagogue, as Russia launched 130 drones, according to the Ukrainian air force. (MT/AFP, 10.23.25)
• A series of explosions and suspected drone strikes across multiple Russian regions overnight left at least 12 people dead and several others injured, officials and local media reported Oct. 23. (MT/AFP, 10.23.25)
• Russian forces are increasing the frequency of mechanized assaults in eastern and southern Ukraine, aiming to exploit rainy and foggy conditions that weaken Ukrainian drone surveillance. (ISW, 10.23.25)
• ISW reports there is no evidence that Russian forces have established a bridgehead or launched an offensive on the west bank of Kherson Oblast. (ISW, 10.23.25)

Friday, Oct. 24, 2025

• An overnight wave of Ukrainian drones struck multiple Russian regions, injuring at least five people, including a child, when one aircraft slammed into an apartment block outside Moscow, regional authorities said Oct. 24. (MT/AFP, 10.24.25)
• On Oct. 24 Ukraine's HUR MO released new footage of strikes with FPV drones on Russian military assets in Russia-occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts of Ukraine, and in the Crimea. Among the targets were two modern 1L119 Nebo-SVU VHF multi-functional radar stations, as well as the 9A317M TELAR from the Buk-M3 medium-range air defense system. (Status-6 X-Account, 10.24.25)
• The number of confirmed Russian military personnel killed in Ukraine has surged by nearly 5,000 over the past two weeks, which is double the usual confirmation rate for that period, the independent outlet Mediazona reported Friday. As of October 24, more than 140,000 names of fallen Russian soldiers have been identified since the start of the invasion. As of this week, 140,101 were identified as KIAs on the Russian side. (Mediazona, 10.24.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Friday, Oct. 17, 2025

• Trump backed off supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine after a lengthy phone call with Putin, telling Zelenskyy at the White House that the U.S. “needs” the weapons for itself and that he prefers peace negotiations before considering sending them. Zelenskyy left disappointed, saying, “The United States doesn’t want escalation,” even as Trump admitted “Russia is afraid about Tomahawks.” Trump’s public call is now for both sides to “stop where they are.” (New York Times, 10.17.25)Top of Form

Sunday, Oct. 19, 2025

• The EU is considering expanding its support for Ukraine by training troops inside the country, boosting border and cybersecurity assistance, and helping war veterans,. Kyiv wants more soldiers trained on Ukrainian soil and faster—targeting up to 20,000 per month. Any deployment of trainers in Ukraine would require all EU states’ approval and likely depend on a cease-fire and U.S. security backing. (RFE/RL, 10.19.25)

Monday, Oct. 20, 2025

• Zelenskyy described his meeting with Trump as “positive,” despite not securing Tomahawk missiles. Zelenskyy shared that the U.S. and Ukraine are preparing a contract for 25 Patriot air-defense systems, possibly funded by frozen Russian assets, with deliveries expected over several years. (Istories, 10.20.25, Washington Post, 10.20.25)
• The U.K. is preparing to spend more than $134 million to send its forces into Ukraine if a ceasefire agreement is reached. The cost of sending troops, as well as support to police Ukraine’s skies and seas, would cost the country “well over” £100 million, U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey said. (Bloomberg, 10.20.25)
• Italy has expressed readiness to pay for U.S. weapons purchases for Ukraine as part of a special procurement program that’s essential to Kyiv’s efforts to fend off Russia’s full-scale invasion. (Bloomberg, 10.20.25)

Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2025

• Trump denied a Wall Street Journal report that the U.S. had authorized Ukraine to strike targets deep inside Russia with British-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles, distancing his administration from recent Ukrainian attacks using those weapons. The Journal had noted that U.S. authorization is required since the missiles rely on American targeting data, but Trump rejected claims that the U.S. provided such approval for the strikes on Russian military facilities. (The Hill, 10.22.25)

Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025

• Russia’s fourth-largest oil refinery, the Ryazan plant southeast of Moscow, halted a primary crude distillation unit on Oct. 23 following a drone attack, Reuters reported Oct. 24. The extent of the damage and impact on operations has not been disclosed. Recent months have seen several Russian energy facilities targeted by drone strikes amid heightened security concerns. (Reuters, 10.24.25)
• Ukraine’s partners are continuing support via the Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (PURL) initiative, which facilitates the purchase of U.S. military equipment for Ukraine. On Oct. 23, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo announced Finland’s first PURL contribution of €100 million (about $116 million). (ISW, 10.23.25)
• Western drones—like the Switchblade-300—have largely disappointed on the Ukrainian battlefield due to their high cost, vulnerability to Russian jamming and limited impact, reports The Economist. (The Economist, 10.23.25)

Friday, Oct. 24, 2025

• Zelenskyy received a ceremonial welcome from Britain's King Charles and a pledge of support for his country from Prime Minister Keir Starmer ahead of talks with Western allies Kyiv has been pressing to provide more long-range weapons for the fight against the Russian invasion. After the talks, Starmer reaffirmed Britain’s commitment to Ukrainian security, stating "your security is our security" and stressing that Putin is "not serious about peace." Zelenskyy thanked the U.S. for new oil sanctions on Russia and emphasized that pressure is the only way Kyiv can prevail. Asked about U.S. refusal to provide long-range Tomahawk missiles, Starmer said U.K. discussions are ongoing; Zelenskyy insisted unity with allies is vital, warning that Putin seeks to divide and weaken the West. (BBC, 10.24.25, RFE/RL, 10.24.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled support for using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine, provided all asset-holding countries act together and follow international law. The EU was discussing using €200 billion in frozen Russian funds—potentially issuing €140 billion in loans to Ukraine, with repayment contingent on Russia paying for war damages. Lagarde emphasized coordinated action is essential to maintain financial and legal credibility. (Bloomberg, 10.19.25) 

Monday, Oct. 20, 2025

• The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee is set to advance three bipartisan bills to ramp up pressure on Russia: designating it a state sponsor of terrorism, imposing penalties on China for supporting Russia’s war, and transferring frozen Russian assets in the U.S. to Ukraine. (Axios, 10.22.25)

Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025

• Poland could intercept Putin’s aircraft and hand him over to The Hague if he chose to fly over its airspace to meet Trump in Hungary, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said Oct. 21. (MT/AFP, 10.21.25)

Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025

• EU leaders failed to approve a proposed €140bn loan for Ukraine backed by frozen Russian state assets, after Belgium demanded legal and financial guarantees due to liability concerns. The assets, held at Euroclear in Brussels, are valued at about €190bn. Leaders agreed in principle to support Ukraine’s financing needs for 2026–27 and asked the European Commission to present alternative options by December. The delay jeopardizes Ukraine’s ability to secure urgent funds, as Kyiv and U.S. officials urge accelerated EU support for Ukraine’s war effort. (Financial Times, 10.24.25)
• Bellingcat has uncovered that the Russian-flagged vessel Irtysh exported grain from occupied Crimea to Houthi-controlled Yemen, evading Western sanctions by disabling its location tracking. The ship stopped in Djibouti for a U.N. inspection but continued to Yemen, with U.N. officials noting their mandate does not allow blocking such shipments. Satellite and AIS data confirm the Irtysh’s covert route, and two other vessels, Matros Pozynich and Zafar, were also observed loading grain in Sevastopol with trackers off. (Bellingcat, 10.23.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025

• In an Oct. 16 phone call with Trump, Putin demanded Ukraine surrender all of Donetsk as a condition for ending the war, two senior officials told the Washington Post. Putin suggested he would cede parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in exchange. Trump did not endorse this demand publicly after meeting Zelenskyy, instead urging “stop the killing, and make a DEAL!” Trump’s envoy also pressed Ukraine to consider handing over Donetsk. Ukrainian hopes for Tomahawk missiles went unfulfilled. (Washington Post, 10.19.25)
  • A European diplomat briefed on the White House exchange between Trump and Zelenskyy on Oct. 16 described it as a mess and said Trump also "went on and on" about "his grievances of not having gotten the Nobel Peace Prize." On the conflict, "the message was that Russia only wants Donbas and this is a good deal and Putin wants to end the war and it can be done quickly," the diplomat said. (Washington Post, 10.21.25)

Friday, Oct. 17, 2025

• In a heated Oct. 17 White House meeting, Trump pressured Zelenskyy to accept a ceasefire with Russia along current frontlines, urging him to “let it be cut the way it is now” and warning Ukraine risked destruction if it refused. Trump supported halting fighting at existing battle lines and floated the idea of territory swaps involving Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, but Zelenskyy rejected any formal concession of Ukrainian land. Ukrainian officials left the meeting disappointed, believing Trump’s proposals were heavily influenced by his prior discussions with Putin. (Reuters, 10.20.25, Financial Times, 10.19.25, ISW, 10.20.25, RFE/RL, 10.20.25. Washington Post, 10.19.25)

Sunday, Oct. 19, 2025

• “Let it be cut the way it is. It’s cut up right now. I think 78 % of the land is already taken by Russia. You leave it the way it is right now,” Trump told reporters Oct. 19 aboard Air Force One, referring to the Donetsk region. “They can negotiate something later on down the line. But I said cut and stop at the battle line. Go home. Stop fighting. Stop killing people.” (Financial Times, 10.22.25)
• Zelenskyy said the Ukraine-Russia war should be “frozen” along current battle lines before any peace talks with Putin can start, rejecting Russia’s demand that Ukraine cede all of Donetsk. Zelenskyy said he’s willing to attend peace talks in Budapest with Trump and Putin, but doubts Putin’s intent to negotiate and called for more pressure on Russia.  (Bloomberg, 10.19.25, RFE/RL, 10.19.25)
• The Kremlin reiterated it will not agree to a ceasefire along current lines and remains focused on eliminating the “root causes” of the war—demands including Ukrainian neutrality, stopping NATO expansion, and reducing Ukraine’s military. Moscow rejected Trump and Zelenskyy’s suggestion of a halt along the frontline, insisting a final settlement must come first. Russian officials say these demands must be resolved before any ceasefire or peace agreement with Ukraine. (ISW, 10.20.25)
• When asked if Putin was “trying to buy more time,” Trump said: “I’ve been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well… But I think that I’m pretty good at this stuff.” (Washington Post, 10.19.25) The comment signals a more realistic view of Putin by Trump.*

Monday, Oct. 20, 2025

• A Oct. 20 call between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov revealed that the Kremlin is clinging to its long-held positions, namely that Ukraine hand over control of the entire Donbas region as part of any settlement, the officials said. After the discussion, Rubio, who also serves as Trump's national security adviser, briefed White House officials that an imminent summit with Putin would unlikely yield positive results in peace negotiations. Lavrov on Oct. 21 told reporters that Russia's view was firm. "I believe American officials have concluded that Russia's position has remained largely unchanged over time and remains within the bounds of its initial maximalist demands," he said, noting that Moscow's stance was the same as when Trump and Putin met in Alaska two months ago without progress. (Wall Street Journal, 10.22.25)
• Zelenskyy confirmed that Russia still demands Ukrainian troops withdraw from Donetsk and Luhansk, and reiterated that Ukraine will not retreat, calling territorial concessions “unacceptable.” Zelenskyy said a “stand where we stand” ceasefire is possible but there’s no clarity from Russia on a genuine exchange. Zelenskyy said Budapest wasn’t the best place for talks to end the war in Ukraine because of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Russia-friendly stance. (Istories, 10.20.25, Bloomberg, 10.20.25)

Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025

• Plans for a second Trump-Putin summit have been postponed, with the White House announcing “no plans” for a meeting in the immediate future, despite Trump earlier suggesting talks in Budapest. “I don’t want to have a wasted meeting. I don’t want to have a waste of time, so I’ll see what happens,” Trump told reporters, adding the media would be informed “over the next two days” about his decision. The delay follows Russia’s rejection of Trump’s proposal to “see current battlefield lines frozen” as the basis for a Ukraine ceasefire. (Bloomberg, 10.21.25, Washington Post, 10.21.25, New York Times, 10.21.25)
  • Lavrov insisted Russia will not agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine unless it results in Ukraine’s full capitulation. (ISW, 10.21.25)
  • In response, a Russian deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said it had not even been planned. "You can’t postpone something that hasn’t been agreed upon. What some Western sources wrote yesterday, we did not confirm. We had no understanding at all regarding the timing or location of such a contact," he was quoted as saying by RIA Novosti news agency. (RFE/RL, 10.21.25)
  • “The work ahead will be challenging,” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Oct. 21, according to the Interfax news service. “Neither President Trump nor President Putin have given a precise timeframe. Preparation, serious preparation, is needed.” Bloomberg, 10.21.25)
• Ukraine and its European allies are preparing a peace plan—centered on freezing the current front line—to keep the U.S. engaged in Russia negotiations after Trump sent mixed signals about backing Moscow’s demands. European national security advisers are meeting this week, and a “peace board” chaired by Trump is being discussed as part of the deal. (Financial Times, 10.21.25)
  • Ukraine and European allies signaled support for Trump’s call for an immediate ceasefire, with leaders including Zelenskyy, Macron, Merz and von der Leyen backing a joint statement that the current frontline should be the basis for future negotiations. (ISW, 10.21.25)
  • Ukraine and its European allies are preparing a peace plan that keeps the U.S. involved in negotiations with Russia, insisting talks should start from the current frontline rather than ceding territory to Moscow. The plan may feature a “peace board” chaired by Trump. A planned Trump-Putin summit in Budapest has been canceled. EU leaders are also expected to back a €140 billion reparations loan to Ukraine using frozen Russian assets. (Financial Times, 10.21.25)

Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2025

• The White House confirmed the cancellation of the planned Budapest summit between Trump and Putin to discuss ending the Ukraine war. “Secretary Rubio and foreign minister Lavrov had a productive call. Therefore, an additional in-person meeting between the secretary and foreign minister is not necessary,” a White House official said. “There are no plans for President Trump to meet with President Putin in the immediate future,” they added. (Financial Times, 10.22.25, Wall Street Journal, 10.22.25)
  • Trump said Oct. 22, “Every time I speak with Vladimir, I have good conversations, and then they don’t go anywhere,” reflecting frustration over lack of progress with Putin. On imposing new sanctions on Russia, Trump added, “I just felt it was time.” (Financial Times, 10.22.25)
  • When asked to comment on a “statement by the U.S. President regarding him either meeting with you or not meeting with you, and the Ukraine crisis, too. Almost at the same time, the United States imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies,” Putin told Russian media on Oct. 23: “In the most recent telephone conversation, the idea of a meeting and the venue were proposed by the American side... Now I see – I have read the statement – that the U.S. President decided to cancel or rather to postpone this meeting. What can I say? Dialogue is always better than confrontation, disputes or, even more so, war. Therefore, we have always supported dialogue, and we continue to do so.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.23.25)

Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025

• Zelenskyy said he won’t recognize any territorial swaps during potential peace negotiations with Russia. (Bloomberg, 10.23.25)
• Putin said on Oct. 23 that the summit was "postponed" rather than cancelled, adding it would be a mistake to hold it without necessary preparations. The U.S. side proposed the meeting and its location, he claimed. (Euronews, 10.24.25)

Friday, Oct. 24, 2025

• Putin’s continued strikes on civilians in Ukraine, his maximalist demands on Kyiv to bring the war to an end and his refusal to agree to an immediate ceasefire all added up, in Trump’s mind, to a clear signal that nothing really had changed. “There was no single moment that shifted the president’s thinking, according to a senior White House official. Instead, his view evolved as he found himself repeatedly disappointed that Putin appeared no closer to agreeing to end the war.” (CNN, 10.24.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Monday, Oct. 20, 2025

• President Trump claims the U.S. “pays close to 100% of NATO,” but the Financial Times finds America funds about 16% of NATO’s common budget. NATO will spend $1.59 trillion on defense in 2025, with the U.S. contributing 60%—though, on a per-GDP basis, European states (led by Poland) are catching up and sometimes outspending the U.S. Russia’s invasion spurred a surge in European defense spending, but experts say few—especially France and the UK—can reach the new 5% of GDP goal. (Financial Times, 10.20.25)

Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025

• German Army General Alexander Sollfrank warned that if Russia is not stopped in Ukraine, democracy in Europe is at risk, and called on Europe to “give Ukraine everything they need” to pressure Moscow—even if Trump does not. With front lines static and both sides attacking infrastructure, Europe is scrambling for new funding and considering €140 billion in loans backed by frozen Russian assets. Brussels estimates Europe will need to spend $4 trillion on defense over the next decade to ensure deterrence. (New York Times, 10.21.25)
• Polish and Romanian authorities announced they had foiled Russian military intelligence-linked sabotage plots intended to undermine EU support for Ukraine. Polish officials detained a Ukrainian citizen who sent explosive packages to Ukraine on Russia’s behalf, while Romanian authorities arrested two other Ukrainians for a related attack on a Nova Post courier building in Bucharest. Additional suspects were detained in Poland for plotting sabotage. ISW assesses these acts as part of Russia’s broader information and hybrid campaign against Europe. (ISW, 10.21.25)
  • Poland detained three individuals in a joint operation with NATO ally Romania on suspicion of collaborating with Russia’s secret services. (Bloomberg, 10.21.25)

Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2025

• Germany has seen a spike in suspicious drone activity near key infrastructure, with authorities reporting 172 incidents at airfields through September—up from 129 last year. Chancellor Merz suspects Russia is behind most flights to test German defenses, though up to 80% use commercial drones. Legal and operational gaps hinder a response, as the military is mostly barred from domestic action. Berlin plans €10 billion on drone countermeasures, but experts warn that effective defense requires national coordination, not a patchwork approach. (New York Times, 10.22.25)
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned that NATO’s “aggressive” and “hostile” policies are forcing Moscow to adopt compensatory military-technical measures. Ryabkov stated that continued confrontation could lead to a direct clash between nuclear states, raising the risk of nuclear escalation. His comments underscore growing concerns in Moscow over worsening Russia-NATO relations and the potential for unintended escalation. (Kommersant, 10.22.25)

Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025

• A British Royal Navy destroyer has intercepted and shadowed a Russian warship near the U.K.’s northern coastline. The operation took place between Oct. 17 and 19 with support from the French Navy and a Dutch Air Force NH90 helicopter. (MT/AFP, 10.23.25)
• British police have arrested three men in London under national security laws on suspicion of helping Russia’s intelligence services. (Bloomberg, 10.23.25)

Friday, Oct. 24, 2025

• Lithuania summoned the charge d‘affaires from the Russian Embassy in Vilnius and issued a strong protest over what it said was the entry of two Russian planes into its airspace on Oct. 23. A statement from the Lithuanian military said a Sukhoi SU-30 fighter and an IL-78 tanker from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad passed through Lithuanian airspace for 18 seconds, probably during aerial refueling training. (RFE/RL, 10.24.25)
• Amid heightened fears of Russian aggression, Estonia is leveraging its tech-savvy workforce to expand the defense industry, producing AI-guided drones and cyber defense tools for export. The sector doubled export revenues to €350 million last year. (New York Times, 10.24.25)
• U.S. prosecutors have charged Peter Williams, former CEO of L3Harris Trenchant—a British subsidiary of U.S. defense contractor L3Harris—with selling trade secrets to a buyer in Russia for $1.3 million. (Korrespondent.net, 10.24.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• No significant developments.

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• On Oct. 22, 2025, President Vladimir Putin oversaw a strategic nuclear forces exercise, which, in the Kremlin’s words, “involved live launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles and air-launched cruise missiles.” According to the official release: “From the Plesetsk state test cosmodrome, a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile was launched, impacting at the Kura test site in Kamchatka. Simultaneously, the Bryansk strategic nuclear missile submarine launched a Sineva ballistic missile from the Barents Sea. Tu-95MS long-range aircraft also participated, launching a volley of air-launched cruise missiles.” Russia’s National Defence Control Centre managed the launches, and the exercise “evaluated the readiness of military command bodies and the operational staff’s proficiency,” according to the Kremlin. (Kremlin, 10.22.25, RM, 10.22.25)
  • According to Russian officials, these drills tested operational staff readiness and nuclear launch procedures, continuing a tradition of autumn exercises by Russia’s strategic forces. (russianforces.org, 10.22.25)
• When asked “Regarding the use of Western long-range weapons, how do you personally assess the evidently contradictory signals coming from Washington? Recently, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. has lifted a key restriction on the use of such weapons. Then Trump stated that Tomahawks would not be supplied after all. Just an hour ago, Zelenskyy once again claimed that Ukraine will receive weapons capable of striking targets up to 3000 kilometers away. In your view, is this still an escalation?” Vladimir Putin said: “This is an attempt at escalation. However, if such weapons are used to strike Russian territory, the response will be very serious, if not overwhelming. Let them think about that.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.23.25)
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned on Oct. 22 that U.S.-Russia dialogue on nuclear arms is now largely impossible, and the risk of direct confrontation between nuclear powers is rising due to NATO’s “aggressive” policy. Ryabkov said Moscow cannot resume information-sharing with Washington under the New START treaty and that nuclear disarmament proposals must account for security interests and be reciprocal. He stressed Russia won’t be drawn into an arms race and warned of “total nuclear danger” if the U.S. refuses Russia’s latest security offers. (Kommersant, 22.10.25)
• Russia is protecting its nuclear submarine fleet in the Arctic with an undersea surveillance system built using high-tech equipment acquired from U.S. and European companies through a secret procurement network, according to newly uncovered financial records, court documents and Western security officials. Disguising its role in transactions through layers of front companies, Russia was able to obtain sensitive sonar systems, an underwater drone capable of operating at depths up to 3,000 meters, sophisticated subsurface antennas and a fleet of ships that posed as commercial or research vessels while carrying out installation tasks for the Russian military, according to officials and documents. The surveillance system, called "Harmony," relies on a constellation of seabed sensors to detect U.S. submarines entering Russian naval "bastions," disrupting Western attempts to track or, if war broke out, destroy Russian submarines that exist to ensure Russia can launch a nuclear strike even if its land-based missile silos are disabled, according to naval experts. (Washington Post, 10.22.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• In northeastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, Russian soldiers surrendered to a Ukrainian robot packed with explosives, marking the first time Ukraine took prisoners with such a device, The Washington Post reports. Land drones are increasingly used for attacking enemy positions, resupplying, and evacuating wounded. The shift to ground robots helps Ukraine’s military save lives and cope with manpower shortages as it faces Russia’s larger army. (Washington Post, 10.21.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

Monday, Oct. 20, 2025

• EU energy ministers agreed to phase out all Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, banning new contracts from January 2026. Existing contracts get a transition period, with some exemptions for Hungary and Slovakia. Russian gas still makes up 13% of EU imports—worth over €15 billion in 2025. The European Parliament’s approval is expected, with the move aimed at further reducing Moscow’s energy income. (The Moscow Times, 10.20.25)
• The European Union is looking to increase the ability of its member states to carry out inspections on Russia's “shadow fleet” of aging oil tankers, officials said on Monday. (MT/AFP, 10.20.25)

Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025

• Japan’s trade minister said the country aims to curb dependence on Russian liquefied natural gas, but can’t immediately halt imports despite growing pressure from the U.S.. (Bloomberg, 10.21.25)

Wednesday, Oct. 22,2025

• The U.S. is imposing sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, aiming to “degrade” Vladimir Putin’s war chest and support Donald Trump’s effort to end the war in Ukraine. “These are tremendous sanctions,” the U.S. president said. “We hope that they won’t be on for long. We hope that the war will be settled.” Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said: “Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, the Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine.” Bessent said the U.S. was prepared to take further action. “We encourage our allies to join us… and adhere to these sanctions.” The measures unveiled on Wednesday specify that “participating foreign financial institutions” could be subject to secondary sanctions for doing business with Lukoil and Rosneft. This means that companies such as Reliance, which has global operations, may struggle to secure financing from U.S. banks if they continues to purchase Russian oil. (Financial Times, 10.22.25)
  • The U.S. sanctions cut the companies from dollar-based banking, covering firms responsible for 55% of Russian oil output and about 25% of state revenue. (Washington Post, 10.23.25)
  • The U.S. announcement was coordinated with the EU, according to two EU officials. “There has been ongoing dialogue and co-ordination on keeping the pressure on Russia for some time,” said one official. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen also had a call with Bessent ahead of the announcement. “We are very happy about the signals we get from America regarding the sanctions,” said EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas. “It’s an important sign of strength that we are aligned here.” (Financial Times, 10.22.25)
  • Analysts say the impact of blacklisting Rosneft and Lukoil—Russia's biggest oil producers—will hinge on three things: how well they are enforced, the reaction of major markets in India and China, and whether Moscow can circumvent the measures. (Wall Street Journal, 10.22.25)
  • Vladimir Putin told Russian media on Oct. 23, 2025 when commenting on U.S. and EU’s latest sanctions: “Now, regarding the new sanctions. First, there is nothing new about them. Clearly, they will have serious implications for us, but they will not significantly affect our economic well-being.” “Speaking of the political aspect this, of course, represents an unfriendly step with regard to Russia,” Putin said. “We feel confident and stable, and despite certain losses (which will inevitably occur, as this is tied to many circumstances), our energy sector remains sufficiently confident,” he said. (Kremlin.ru, 10.23.25)
  • The Russian Foreign Ministry said Thursday that the new U.S. sanctions won't pose problems for the country. "Our country has developed a strong immunity to Western restrictions and will continue to confidently develop its economic potential," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, wrote in a social-media post that the U.S. has now "fully embarked on the warpath against Russia." (Wall Street Journal, 10.22.25)
  • Russia’s stock market plunged Thursday as investors reacted to new U.S. sanctions targeting the country’s largest oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil. The MOEX Russia Index, which tracks 40 of the country’s largest publicly traded companies, fell as much as 3.6%, hitting a low of 2,546, its weakest level in more than a week. The RTS Index, which tracks Russian stocks in U.S. dollars, fell by a similar margin. (MT/AFP, 10.23.25)
• Donald Trump said he planned to speak to Xi Jinping about China’s purchases of Russian oil when the two leaders meet next week in South Korea. (Bloomberg, 10.22.25)
  • At least four of China’s state-owned oil companies have temporarily suspended purchases of Russian oil shipped by sea following new U.S. sanctions on energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil. As much as 20% of China’s crude imports—about 2 million barrels a day in the first nine months of this year—come from Russia. (Bloomberg, 10.23.25, MT/AFP, 10.23.25)
• President Donald Trump said Prime Minister Narendra Modi assured him during a phone call Tuesday that India would wind down purchases of Russian oil. (Bloomberg, 10.22.25)
  • Although Trump claimed India was ending Russian oil purchases, imports remained steady at nearly 1.8 million barrels per day. Flows of Russian oil to major Indian refiners—a boon for both countries’ economies over the past three years—are expected to fall to near zero after the U.S. imposed sanctions on crude giants Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC. Analysts note, however, that only a full boycott by Indian refiners—or direct penalties on them—would truly cripple Russian revenues and push Putin towards peace. (The Economist, 10.23.25, Bloomberg, 10.22.25, New York Times, 10.23.25)
• The European Union adopted a new package of sanctions targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure, building on new U.S. and UK moves to chip away at Moscow’s ability to wage its war against Ukraine. EU’s new package of sanctions targets Russian energy, banks, crypto exchanges, and entities in China, according to the European Council. The EU measures will ban LNG imports from 2027, according to the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm. The EU will also impose a full transaction ban on two major Russian oil companies, Rosneft PJSC and Gazprom Neft PJSC, and sanction 117 additional so-called shadow fleet vessels, which have enabled Russia to evade previous measures. The move adds momentum to western allies’ renewed push to punish Moscow. (Bloomberg, 10.23.25)
  • The new sanctions will allow the EU to sanction foreign ports for moving Russian products, and added 117 shadow vessels to the list of ships blacklisted for moving Russian oil, bringing the total to 558. (Wall Street Journal, 10.22.25)
  • Vladimir Putin told Russian media on Oct. 23, 2025 when commenting on EU’s latest sanctions: “The fact that they cancelled imports of our toilet bowls will cost them dearly. I think they will need them if they keep the same policies with regard to the Russian Federation.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.23.25)

Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025

• Rosneft PJSC’s German unit, which was seized by the country’s government in 2022, may be cut off from key customers since it wasn’t excluded from the latest U.S. sanctions against Russia. The German government is in talks with Washington in an effort to exclude the unit from sanctions German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he’s optimistic that the U.S. will exempt Rosneft PJSC’s German unit from Washington’s latest sanctions against Russia. “ (Bloomberg, 10.23.25, Bloomberg, 10.23.25, Financial Times, 10.24.25)

Friday, Oct. 24, 2025

• President Trump wanted a final gut check before taking his hardest move yet against Russian President Vladimir Putin. "Do you guys agree with me?" he asked top advisers in the Oval Office on Wednesday. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said yes, according to a person familiar with the meeting Wednesday afternoon. Hours earlier Trump had met with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and told him to prepare a slate of sanctions on Russia's oil industry, marking the first direct U.S. measures on Russia during the second Trump administration. U.S. sanctions packages for Russia’s oil industry have been drafted and ready for months in case Trump decided to act, U.S. officials said. Trump was presented with three sanctions plans, the officials said: A severe option that targeted Russian industry and senior Russian leaders directly; a middle option that targeted Russia’s energy industry; and a lighter option that included more limited sanctions. Trump chose the “middle” sanctions option, aiming to pressure Moscow while keeping some negotiating leverage. The president's patience finally ran out, officials said, after concluding Putin was dragging him along and after continuing to see footage of Russian strikes in Ukraine. Hours after Trump called off a planned summit with Putin in Budapest, Russia launched new missile and drone strikes on Ukraine, hitting various buildings including a kindergarten. Trump didn't comment directly on the strikes but has been angered with such aggressions, even at times in which he has felt he has made progress with Putin, administration officials said. (Wall Street Journal, 10.24.25)
• U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker told Newsmax that President Trump’s announcement of sweeping new sanctions on Russian oil companies demonstrates Trump’s determination to end the “senseless” conflict in Ukraine and to pressure both Moscow and Kyiv to negotiate a ceasefire. He added that Russia’s battlefield progress has been minimal, and Trump is increasingly frustrated with Putin’s refusal to de-escalate. European allies announced parallel sanctions. (Newsmax, 10.24.25)
• Three-quarters of Russian oil exports now come from companies under new U.S. sanctions, following Washington’s decision to impose blocking restrictions on oil giants Rosneft and LUKOIL, the business daily Kommersant reported Saturday. These measures build on existing sanctions against Surgutneftegaz and Gazprom Neft. In 2024, Russia exported 240 million tons of oil, with 42.3% shipped to China, 37% to India, and 6.8% to Turkey. From January to August 2025, exports totaled about 148 million tons, according to industry sources. The expanded sanctions are expected to further complicate payments, insurance, and transportation for Russia’s crucial energy exports. (Kommersant, 10.23.25)
• Russia’s exports—about 7.3 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency—account for about 7% of global crude oil and refined fuel consumption. The latest penalties on Rosneft and Lukoil, combined with sanctions imposed earlier this year, mean that firms shipping the majority of Moscow’s oil to overseas markets are now blacklisted. India and China are currently the two largest buyers of Russian crude, taking nearly 3.6 million barrels per day. (Bloomberg, 10.24.25)
• A global oil glut has pushed Brent crude to a five-month low near $60/barrel—$20 below the Biden-era average—while U.S. gasoline prices dropped below $3/gallon. The IEA forecasts a surplus of 3.2 million barrels/day through mid-2026. This oil price environment enabled Trump to impose sanctions on Russian giants Rosneft and Lukoil without fueling U.S. inflation, aiming to undercut Putin’s revenues. After the sanctions and an EU LNG import ban from 2027, Brent crude rebounded 5.5% to $66; European gas rose over 3%. Chinese and Indian refiners, major Russian oil buyers, have begun suspending purchases. (Financial Times 10.24.25, New York Times0.24.25)
• A rivalry at the heart of Russia's oil trade is threatening the crucial operations the Kremlin relies on to fund its war in Ukraine, just as the U.S. cranks up the pressure on Moscow. The two players who are estimated to move the vast majority of the state-owned Rosneft PJSC’s crude have been trying to expose each other's Russian links in a bid to trigger Western sanctions. The dispute between Murtaza Lakhani, a veteran oil trading tycoon, and two Azeri competitors, Etibar Eyyub and Tahir Garayev, is costing Rosneft and the Russian state billions of dollars in increased costs. (Bloomberg, 10.24.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• One of Putin’s top envoys arrived in the U.S. on Oct. 24 for talks with American officials days after Trump imposed wide-ranging sanctions on Russia’s largest oil companies in a bid to jump-start peace talks. Kirill Dmitriev, chief executive of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, confirmed the visit in a post on social media. He and Steve Witkoff plan to meet in Miami on Oct. 25, despite diplomatic talks having taken a downward turn earlier this week, Politico reported Oct. 24. The meeting comes amid heightened tensions following new sanctions imposed by Trump on Moscow. (Politico, 10.24.25, FT, 10.24.25,MT/AFP, 10.24.25)
• U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) wrote on X “I have full confidence that President Trump will secure a lasting peace deal with Russia—and potentially negotiate a trillion-dollar trade agreement that would benefit the entire world.” (X, 10.23.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Former Russian diplomat Sergei Shestakov was sentenced to two months in jail for lying to U.S. law enforcement in a sanctions-evasion case linked to ex-FBI agent Charles McGonigal and Kremlin-linked oligarch Oleg Deripaska. McGonigal was sentenced to over two years for related charges. (RFE/RL, 10.19.25)
• After escaping house arrest in Mexico, Chinese fentanyl kingpin Zhi Dong Zhang attempted to enter Russia via Cuba to evade U.S. and Mexican extradition. Russian authorities, apparently unaware of his status as a most-wanted U.S. fugitive, denied him entry and sent him back to Cuba, enabling his eventual extradition to the U.S.. Officials suggest Russia’s refusal was due to Zhang’s false identification and a lack of U.S.-issued Interpol alerts, rather than a deliberate stance on cross-border criminal cooperation. (Wall Street Journal, 10.24.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s central bank cut its key interest rate to 16.5% (from 17%) for the fourth consecutive time as the economy slows and new U.S./EU sanctions loom. The IMF downgraded Russia’s 2025 growth outlook from 1.5% to 0.6%, and the Bank of Russia also reduced its forecast. Fresh U.S. sanctions target Rosneft and Lukoil, while the EU bans Russian LNG imports. Governor Nabiullina warned sanctions are a “negative external factor,” with low oil prices and rising deficits prompting Russia to raise some taxes in 2026. (Wall Street Journal, 10.24.25)
• Russia’s defense sector, a key economic driver, contracted in September for the first time since the war began: metal goods output dropped 1.6% year-on-year and fell 6% month-on-month; “other transport vehicles” (including tanks and APCs) rose just 6% (vs. 61% in August) and fell 20% from the previous month. Overall industrial output grew only 0.3% year-on-year. Experts warn of rising recession risks. (The Moscow Times, 10.24.25)
• Russia’s regions are facing a looming fiscal crisis as falling tax revenues and mounting expenses have forced local governments to exhaust nearly all their financial reserves, according to data reviewed by the Expert RA ratings agency. At least six regions had just two to three day’s worth of spending left in their bank accounts as of Sept. 1. The Arkhangelsk region, home to about 1 million people, had 50 million rubles ($620,000) in reserve, or just 0.03% of its 156-billion-ruble ($1.93 billion) annual budget. Kalmykia’s remaining 40 million rubles ($496,000) amounted to 0.1% of its yearly spending plan. In the Volgograd region, reserves fell to 100 million rubles ($1.24 million), or 0.04% of its annual budget of 196 billion rubles ($2.43 billion). (MT/AFP, 10.20.25)
• Thousands of small businesses in Russia could be forced to shut down as a result of government plans to raise the tax burden on entrepreneurs, a lawmaker warned during a meeting with Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. Alexei Nechaev, head of the New People party, said the Finance Ministry’s proposal to lower the annual revenue threshold for mandatory value-added tax (VAT) payments from 60 million to 10 million rubles ($744,000 to $124,000) would hit small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the regions hardest. (MT/AFP, 10.21.25)
• A majority of Russian entrepreneurs plan to raise prices in response to upcoming tax increases while others say they may turn to informal practices to offset the impact, according to a survey by the business association Opora Rossii. About 70% of 13,000 business owners surveyed said they would increase prices for goods and services, while the rest said they would either go underground or use tax optimization schemes. (MT/AFP, 10.23.25)
• Russia is aggressively promoting a state-controlled “super app” called MAX, making it mandatory in schools, advertising widely, and sabotaging rivals like WhatsApp and Telegram by degrading their call quality. MAX now has over 45 million users and integrates messaging, government services, and digital ID features—allowing for strict surveillance and censorship. The initiative is part of the Kremlin’s push for a “sovereign internet” and increased digital control over Russian society. (New York Times, 10.21.25)
• Access to the popular messaging apps Telegram and WhatsApp has been restricted in about 40% of Russia’s regions, the independent monitoring project Na Svyazi said Wednesday. (MT/AFP, 10.22.25)
• Russia’s leading domestic violence support center announced Wednesday it was shutting down over intensifying government pressure and a loss of resources due to its “foreign agent” designation. Founded in 2015 and formally registered in 2018, Nasiliu.net (“No to Violence”) had been the country’s most prominent organization supporting survivors of domestic violence. (MT/AFP, 10.22.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia’s Defense Ministry has begun its largest internal reform in more than a decade, seeking to digitize the military’s massive bureaucracy in order to free commanders from clerical burdens, the RBC news website reported Wednesday, citing anonymous sources familiar with the process. Officials say the overhaul focuses on administrative and logistical functions—such as procurement, construction, healthcare and benefits to service members and their families—rather than combat operations. To date, approximately 50 internal processes have been restructured under the newly created Department for Efficiency Improvement. The long-term goal is to build a paperless, responsible and data-driven defense administration, according to RBC. Among the most visible results so far are the phaseout of paper orders and records, which previously produced 2.5 million documents each year. (MT/AFP, 10.22.25)
• In the first half of 2025, Russians filed 25,600 lawsuits to declare people dead or missing—a fivefold increase from the same period in 2024, according to Supreme Court statistics. Most cases involve soldiers lost in Ukraine whose bodies were not recovered. Of 15,300 cases reviewed this year, courts granted 14,700 requests. Families use these rulings either to receive compensation or out of despair over missing loved ones. (Istories, 10.20.25)
• For the first time, Russia’s Supreme Court released data showing that 350 people avoided prosecution or were released from punishment in the first half of 2025 by joining the war in Ukraine. Of these, 41 had committed violent crimes—including two convicted of murder—while the largest group (118) were found guilty of theft, fraud, or robbery. Others escaped punishment for drug offenses, traffic crimes, or military offenses. (Istories, 10.20.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russian courts have convicted at least 158 teenagers (ages 14–17) on terrorism and sabotage charges since the Ukraine invasion, according to Supreme Court data analyzed by Vyorstka. Many cases involved arson at military offices or railways; 29 minors were convicted in the first half of 2025 alone, following 26 in 2022, 35 in 2023, and 41 in 2024. Russia’s FSB will gain new powers over juvenile detainees from January 2026. (The Moscow Times, 10.19.25)
• Russia has built a unified database of “digital traces” of cybercriminals to help authorities track down and block fraudulent networks, the newly appointed Prosecutor General Alexander Gutsan said Tuesday. (MT/AFP, 10.21.25)
• Russian police said Tuesday that they had opened the country’s first criminal case over a violation of a new law that bans the transfer of mobile phone numbers to others. (MT/AFP, 10.21.25)

• Andrei Melnikov, head of Russia’s Deposit Insurance Agency (ASV), was detained in Moscow and taken to Lefortovo jail for questioning in connection with a fraud case. The FSB participated in the arrest. Two of Melnikov’s deputy directors were previously arrested on charges of embezzling about 4 billion rubles via a Novosibirsk waterpark under ASV management. According to reports, one of the arrested deputies gave incriminating testimony against Melnikov. (Istories, 10.23.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• UK plans to double the settlement wait for “global talent” visa holders from five to ten years are prompting Russian tech workers to reconsider their ties, with many preparing U.S. and EU visa backup options. Russians are the largest group among recipients of the visa since 2022, but increased uncertainty and longer routes to citizenship threaten to divert talent elsewhere, especially as the U.S. offers more lucrative tech opportunities. (Financial Times, 10.20.25)
• A Russian court on Thursday freed a French cyclist who was detained for more than seven weeks on suspicion of illegally crossing the border, despite finding him guilty of the charge. Sofiane Sehili, 44, was arrested on the Russian-Chinese border in early September while attempting to break the record for the fastest endurance cycle from Lisbon to Vladivostok. (MT/AFP, 10.23.25)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine’s central bank is under IMF pressure to devalue the hryvnia as part of talks for a new $8 billion loan package, Bloomberg reports. While the IMF says controlled devaluation would boost budget revenues, Ukrainian officials worry it would fuel inflation and hurt public sentiment. The hryvnia has already fallen 13% since 2023, and Kyiv decision-makers fear political backlash from further declines. (Bloomberg, 10.17.25)
• According to a September 2025 poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 91% of Ukrainians have a negative view of Russia and 85% feel negatively toward ordinary Russians. These attitudes remain as negative as in 2024, with the vast majority across all regions opposed to allowing Russian citizens into Ukraine. Sociologists note that Ukrainians’ hostility primarily reflects a political—not ethnic—definition of “Russians” due to the ongoing war. (Ukrainska Pravda, 10.24.25)
• The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) have uncovered a powerful currency conversion center that operated with the participation of the former head of the State Tax Service and the former deputy head of the Main Directorate of the State Tax Service in Poltava region. According to investigators, the "scheme" consisted of members of a criminal organization creating a conversion center and recruiting more than 200 controlled companies to conduct tax fraud. (Interfax-Ukraine, 10.24.25)
• Ukrainian authorities are investigating a Poltava City Council officer suspected of deliberately making false statements on his mandatory financial disclosures. Reports indicate that Deputy Oleksandr Kalutskyi failed to declare cryptocurrency totaling over 200 million hryvnia, or approximately $4.77 million. (Yahoo Finance, 10.23.25)
• A recent investigation by Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) revealed that a military unit in the Kiev region participated in the sale of goods intended for personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Investigators found that members of the unit issued fraudulent invoices worth millions of hryvnias for deliveries that never occurred. The SBI report confirms losses amounting to at least 5 million hryvnias tied to these illicit transactions, highlighting a concerning level of corruption within the procurement and distribution network intended to support the military forces in active duty. (Social Bites, 10.23.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• President Donald Trump’s administration is involved in talks for a U.S. company to access one of the world’s largest untapped deposits of tungsten, a metal used by the Pentagon to make ammunition, projectiles and other weaponry. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has facilitated negotiations between Cove Kaz Capital Group LLC and Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund about a bid to develop two of the central Asian country’s largest deposits of the metal, according to people familiar with the matter. The talks are aligned with the White House’s effort to boost supplies of the mineral as the U.S. weans itself off China’s rare-earths and critical minerals—an issue at the heart of the trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies. (Bloomberg, 10.21.25)
• European nations are working with Ukraine on a 12-point proposal to end Russia’s war along current battle lines, pushing back against Vladimir Putin’s renewed demands to the U.S. for Kyiv to surrender territory in return for a peace deal. A peace board chaired by U.S. President Donald Trump would oversee implementation of the proposed plan, according to people familiar with the matter. Once Russia follows Ukraine in agreeing to a ceasefire and both sides commit to halting territorial advances, the proposals envisage the return of all deported children to Ukraine and exchanges of prisoners. Ukraine would receive security guarantees, funds to repair war damage and a pathway to rapidly join the European Union. (Bloomberg, 10.21.25)
• The European Union kicked off a high-level summit with top officials from Central Asia, the Caucasus, and other neighboring countries on Oct. 20 as the bloc aims to make new inroads in a region where China and Russia wield longstanding influence. At the top of the agenda is the Trans Caspian Transport Corridor—also known as the Middle Corridor—an emerging 6,500-kilometer-long trade route that connects China to Europe through Central Asia and the Caucasus by bypassing Russia. (RFE/RL, 10.20.25)
• The Via Baltica—a major road linking Poland with Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia—officially opened Monday, passing through the strategic Suwalki Gap between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad, amid heightened regional tensions. Polish and Lithuanian leaders highlighted the road’s importance for both the economy and defense, allowing faster NATO troop movement to the Baltics. The 970-kilometer route starts in Warsaw and ends in Tallinn. (Washington Post, 10.20.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Meghan O’Sullivan, director of the Belfer Center: “Following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia inflicted enormous economic pain on Europe by slashing its natural gas deliveries to the continent and sparking an energy crisis with global reverberations.  When Russia cut off most of its pipeline gas exports to Europe in 2022 ...., European countries were able to cushion the loss by securing supplies of globally traded LNG, albeit at much higher prices. Nonetheless, shifting dynamics in global gas markets suggest that new dangers may lie ahead. In the coming years, supplies will be more concentrated among a handful of producers, even if Russia’s plan to triple its LNG export capacity by 2030 does not materialize.” (Foreign Affairs, November/December 2025)

Footnotes

1. Putin said on Oct. 23 that the summit was "postponed" rather than cancelled, adding it would be a mistake to hold it without necessary preparations. The US side proposed the meeting and its location, he claimed. (Euronews, 10.24.25)
2. In its report on the sanctions, Argus describes Rosneft and Lukoil as “Russia’s biggest oil companies.”
3. U.S. sanctions packages for Russia’s oil industry had been drafted and ready for months in case Trump decided to act, U.S. officials said. Trump was presented with three sanctions plans, U.S. officials told WSJ. Trump chose the “middle” sanctions option, aiming to pressure Moscow while keeping some negotiating leverage. The president's patience finally ran out, officials said, after concluding Putin was dragging him along and after continuing to see footage of Russian strikes in Ukraine, according to WSJ.
4. According to Kommersant, in 2024, Russia exported 240 million tons of oil, with 42.3% shipped to China, 37% to India, and 6.8% to Turkey. From January to August 2025, exports totaled about 148 million tons, according to industry sources. Russia’s exports — about 7.3 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency — account for about 7% of global crude oil and refined fuel consumption, as reported by Bloomberg.
5. For some of the hot analytical takes on these sanctions see “Will Trump’s Russia Oil Sanctions Finally Sway Putin?” Keith Johnson, Foreign Policy, 10.23.25; “New US sanctions on Russia provide a lifeline for Ukraine” Editorial Board, The Boston Globe, 10.24.25.
6. For “All About the Missiles Russia and Ukraine Are Firing,” see this Bloomberg story.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP.