This Week’s Highlights

• NATO defense ministers met for two days in Brussels as Russia suspended the work of the NATO liaison office in Moscow and recalled its own representatives to the alliance, the Financial Times reports. During the two-day ministerial, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the U.S. wanted "predictability and stability" in its relationship with Russia, according to Reuters, while NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Russia and China should not be seen as separate threats, Financial Times reports. He also said NATO’s forthcoming plans to deter Russia include “significant improvements to our air and missile defenses,” as well as fifth-generation jets, according to Defense News.
• Russia and the U.S. have put forward a joint resolution to the U.N. General Assembly on responsible state behavior in cyberspace. The resolution underscores that all states are interested in promoting the peaceful use of information and communication technology, as well as averting disputes that may arise from its use, Kommersant writes. The U.S. is for continuing dialogue with Russia and China on the risks of escalation in cyberspace, U.S. Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary of Cyber Policy Mieke Eoyang said, according to TASS.
• “I think [U.S. President Joe Biden] did the right thing by deciding to withdraw troops [from Afghanistan],” Russian President Vladimir Putin told an Oct. 21 session of the Valdai Discussion Club. Putin also said Afghanistan should receive economic support and hinted that Russia may recognize the Taliban, according to RFE/RL and The Moscow Times. TASS reports the recognition would be conditioned on its inclusivity and observance of human rights, Russian Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko said Oct. 21. Additionally, on Oct. 20, Russia hosted the Taliban for talks in Moscow.
• Russia can increase gas supplies to Europe by 10% as soon as Germany approves the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, according to Putin, Financial Times reports. Only permission from Germany is required to launch Nord Stream 2, according to Russian Ambassador to Britain, Ukraine Business News reports.
• Gallup asks the world about the leadership of other global powers, including Germany, China and Russia. In 2020, median approval of Germany's leadership across 108 countries and territories stood at a record-high 52%. Russia, for the first time, edged out both the U.S. and China, with a median approval rating of 34%. China and the U.S. tied for last place, with median approval ratings of 30%. 
• A Sept. 23-29 survey of Russians by the Levada Center revealed that 44% consider themselves people of democratic convictions (41% in 2018), while 47% do not consider themselves as such (38% in 2018). Some 32% of respondents consider themselves supporters of market reforms in the Russian economy, and 58% don't think so, according to the poll.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• A reactor at a nuclear power plant in Russia's southwestern Rostov region was taken offline after the detection of a steam leak, but the operator said radiation levels were normal. "The second power unit was disconnected from the network for routine maintenance of thermal and mechanical equipment," Rosenergoatom said Oct. 21. (RFE/RL, 10.21.21)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• The Russian government signaled its strong support of South Korea’s campaign to declare a formal end to the Korean War, describing it as a “trust-building measure,” according to a South Korean diplomat. Ambassador Noh Kyu-duk, South Korea’s special representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs, traveled to Moscow recently to discuss issues on North Korea with Igor Morgulov, the Russian deputy minister of foreign affairs. (Stars and Stripes, 10.15.21)
• Russia’s stance is that it is primarily necessary to get more information on North Korea’s missile launches, Russia’s First Deputy Permanent Representative at the U.N. Dmitry Polyansky said on Oct. 19. (TASS, 10.19.21)
• North Korea plans to send around 1,000 workers to Russia as loggers within the year. (Daily NK, 10.20.20)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russia is ready to maintain dynamic and multifaceted military cooperation with Iran, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said at a meeting with Chief of the Iranian Armed Forces’ General Staff Mohammad Hossein Bagheri. Ahead of his arrival in Russia, Bagheri said he was planning to discuss the purchase of Russian fighters, training aircraft and military helicopters during his visit. (TASS, 10.20.21)

Great Power rivalry/New Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Gallup asks the world about the leadership of other global powers, including Germany, China and Russia. In 2020, median approval of Germany's leadership across 108 countries and territories stood at a record-high 52%. Russia, for the first time, edged out both the U.S. and China, with a median approval rating of 34%. China and the U.S. tied for last place, with a median approval ratings of 30%. (Gallup, 10.19.21)
• Russia has suspended the work of the NATO liaison office in Moscow and recalled its own representatives to the alliance, the foreign ministry said, after NATO expelled eight members of the Russian delegation it accused of spying. (The Financial Times, 10.18.21)
• At the NATO ministerial in Brussels, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomed plans for a more capable European defense, saying it complements the NATO alliance. Led by France, the EU is pressing ahead with plans to jointly develop weapons and create an EU force that could intervene in crises. Austin also said the U.S. wanted "predictability and stability" in its relationship with Russia. During the ministerial, NATO defense ministers were set to discuss a so-called "master plan" to defend the alliance against any potential Russian attack, as well as other top concerns, including shared deterrence and defense strategy, investment in new technologies and the process of evaluating the "lessons learned" in Afghanistan. (RFE/RL, 10.21.21, Reuters, 10.22.21, RFE/RL, 10.22.21)
• NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Russia and China should not be seen as separate threats. “First of all, China and Russia work closely together,” he said. “Second, when we invest more in technology . . . that’s about both of them.” NATO will adopt its new Strategic Concept at a summit next summer, which will outline the alliance’s purpose for the following 10 years. The current version, adopted in 2010, does not mention China. Stoltenberg also said relations between the alliance and Russia are at their lowest point since the Cold War ended. Stoltenberg made the comments as NATO defense ministers began two-day meetings in Brussels. (The Financial Times, 10.18.21, VOA, 10.21.21)
• NATO announced Oct. 18 that it had started its annual nuclear exercise code-named Steadfast Noon. The week-long exercise is taking place over Southern Europe and involves aircraft and personnel from 14 NATO countries. According to the NATO statement, “Steadfast Noon involves training flights with dual-capable fighter jets, as well as conventional jets, backed by surveillance and refueling aircraft. No live weapons are used. This exercise helps to ensure that NATO’s nuclear deterrent remains safe, secure and effective.” (Federation of American Scientists, 10.20.21)
• NATO’s strategy on containing Russia validates Moscow’s decision to cease official dialogue with the alliance, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Oct. 22. (TASS, 10.22.21)
• “To put it bluntly, the Western domination of international affairs, which began several centuries ago and, for a short period, was almost absolute in the late 20th century, is giving way to a much more diverse system,” Putin told an Oct. 21 session of the Valdai Discussion Club. (Kremlin.ru, 10.21.21)
• The U.S. Navy has rejected a claim by Moscow that a U.S. warship tried to enter Russian territorial waters in the Sea of Japan during Russian-Chinese naval drills Oct. 15. (RFE/RL, 10.17.21)
• Two U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancer bombers and two KC-135 Stratotanker tankers were intercepted Oct. 19 over the waters of the Black Sea by Russian Su-30 fighter jets, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. (Defence Blog, 10.20.21)
• China tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile in August that circled the globe before speeding toward its target, demonstrating an advanced space capability that caught U.S. intelligence by surprise.
  •  ''There's nothing we know from reliable sources,'' said Jonathan McDowell, a Harvard astronomer who tracks global space launches, of the reports on the test. The U.S. military unit that reports on orbital events had made public no information on an August launch by China that matched the reported claim about a weapons test, McDowell said. ''Every aspect of this story has question marks,'' he added. (The New York Times, 10.20.21, The Financial Times, 10.16.21)
  • “It is increasingly clear that whatever value the United States hoped to gain from homeland defenses has been more than outweighed by China’s reaction—and Russia’s too. The United States, therefore, should offer to negotiate new limits on missile defenses, to which it would only agree if China and Russia offered very significant concessions in return. It’s time to start planning such a trade,” according to James M. Acton. (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10.21.21)
• The U.S.'s top counterintelligence official said he is narrowing his team's focus to safeguarding five key technologies, including artificial intelligence, quantum computing and autonomous systems such as undersea drones and robots that can perform surgeries. The National Counterintelligence and Security Center's acting director, Michael Orlando, said Oct. 21 he is sharpening the center's priorities in order to conduct an effective outreach campaign to educate businesses and academia about the expansive efforts by China and Russia to collect cutting-edge research. (The Wall Street Journal, 10.22.21)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• “I remember 2008 and 2009 and the global financial crisis very well. ... Together with the businesses, we found a solution. As a result, we saved Russia’s largest private companies, and enabled the state to make a profit afterwards. ... Other countries also had positive experiences in making the state and the market work in tune with each other. The People’s Republic of China is a case in point. While the Communist Party retains its leading role there, the country has a viable market and its institutions are quite effective,” Putin told an Oct. 21 session of the Valdai Discussion Club. (Kremlin.ru, 10.21.21)

Missile defense:

• NATO’s forthcoming plans to deter Russia include “significant improvements to our air and missile defenses,” as well as fifth-generation jets, Stoltenberg said Oct. 21, capping the first day of NATO’s two-day defense ministerial meeting. (Defense News, 10.21.21)

Nuclear arms control:

• Putin said at a Valdai Discussion Club session on Oct. 21 that he is hoping the leaders of the U.N. Security Council member states will hold a summit. (Interfax, 10.22.21)

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Putin agreed on the continuation of current policy regarding Israeli airstrikes in Syria in their Sochi meeting Oct. 22. Bennett and Putin discussed efforts to halt Iran's military nuclear program. The meeting lasted five hours. (Jerusalem Post, 10.22.21)
  • The quest for peace and stability in the Middle East brings Israel and Russia together, Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid stated Oct. 15. (TASS, 10.15.21)
• Russia’s special presidential envoy for Syrian settlement Alexander Lavrentiev and Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin at a meeting with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad discussed the current situation in Syria and humanitarian assistance to Syrians, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in the wake of the Oct. 17 meeting. According to SANA, the sides also discussed cooperation in combating terrorism. (TASS, 10.18.21)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and President of the International Committee of the Red Cross Peter Maurer over the phone addressed the crisis management in various regions all over the world, including Syria, Afghanistan and the areas of the Donbass and Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts. (TASS, 10.18.21)
• At least 13 people including several children were killed Oct. 20 when government forces shelled a marketplace and roads in the last major section of Syria held by rebels, providing a test for the fragile security alliance between Russia and Turkey. (The Wall Street Journal, 10.20.21)
• Turkey is threatening a new military offensive in northern Syria aimed at the Kurdish minority in Tel Rifat. These are Kurds who were ethnically cleansed from Afrin by Turkey and its extremist Syrian allies in 2018. (The Jerusalem Post, 10.18.21)
• Russian Rear Adm. Vadim Kulit on Oct. 21 said that Syrian air defenses did not engage Israeli jets that reportedly carried out a strike in central Syria because there were two civilian airliners in the air at the time. (Times of Israel, 10.15.21)
• The Second Western District Military Court has handed down a sentence to a supporter of the Islamic State who was detained in the Kaluga region, the press service for the regional directorate of the Federal Security Service said. (Interfax, 10.14.21)

Cyber security:

• Russia and the U.S. have put forward a joint resolution to the U.N. General Assembly on responsible state behavior in cyberspace. The resolution underscores that all states are interested in promoting the peaceful use of information and communication technology, as well as averting disputes that may arise from its use, Kommersant writes. (TASS, 10.18.21)
• The U.S. is for continuing dialogue with Russia and China on the risks of an escalation in cyberspace and for achieving mutual understanding on the issue, U.S. Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary of Cyber Policy Mieke Eoyang said at a meeting with the Washington Defense Writers Group. (TASS, 10.20.21)
• The U.S. Commerce Department on Oct. 20 announced a long-awaited rule that officials hope will help stem the export or resale of hacking tools to China and Russia while still enabling cyber security collaboration across borders. The rule would bar sales of hacking software and equipment to China and Russia, as well as to a number of other countries of concern, without a license. (The Washington Post, 10.21.21)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia can increase gas supplies to Europe as soon as Germany approves the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Putin said, underlining Moscow’s conditions for help to resolve the continent’s energy crisis. Putin said Gazprom could increase flows by an extra 17.5 billion cubic meters via the new pipeline “the day after tomorrow” if regulators approved it “tomorrow.” The amount, equal to roughly 10% of the gas Russia shipped to Europe and Turkey in 2020, would provide significant additional supplies at a time of record prices in Europe, even before the pipe’s second line is fully filled in December. (The Financial Times, 10.21.21)
• Only permission from Germany is required to launch Nord Stream 2. Speaking during an interview with the BBC, the Russian Ambassador to Britain, Andrei Kell, said that the Nord Stream 2 project awaits permission from Germany to launch the project. (Ukraine Business News, 10.18.21)
• The situation on the gas market remains severe, with global gas prices increasing 3.5-fold since the beginning of 2021, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, speaking at Putin’s meeting with members of the government. (TASS, 10.20.21)
• Scientists say that rapidly cutting methane “is very likely to be the most powerful lever” to slow the rate of global warming. Today, the second-biggest natural gas producer is Russia, fed by the prolific Yamal region, followed by Iran and its Persian Gulf gas fields. Next come China, Canada and Qatar, with its flotilla of liquefied natural gas tankers. The United States, bolstered by horizontal fracking in the Permian Basin across west Texas and eastern New Mexico, remains the world’s largest natural gas producer. (The Washington Post, 10.19.21)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Leading Russian metallurgical company Metalloinvest signed off on a deal with a consortium of companies including Austria’s Primetals Technologies GmbH and U.S.-registered Midrex Technologies Inc., to build the world’s biggest hot briquetted iron (HBI) plant in Russia. (bne IntelliNews, 10.21.21)
• Delimobil Holding S.A., a Luxembourg-registered, Moscow-based car-sharing company, filed for listing on the New York Stock Exchange on Oct. 8. (bne IntelliNews, 10.17.21)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• “Absent a robust strategy from the United States and Europe to address climate-related migration, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russia and other states could seek to gain influence by providing direct support to impacted countries grappling with political unrest related to migration,” according to a White House report on migration, which examines the way climate change is driving human movement around the world. The intelligence report says governments such as those in Russia and Mideast states that rely on fossil-fuel exports for their budgets "will continue to resist a quick transition to a zero-carbon world because they fear the economic, political and geopolitical costs of doing so.” (The Washington Post, 10.21.21, The Wall Street Journal, 10.21.21)
• Putin again attacked Western liberalism in a fiery address on Oct. 21, blasting so-called cancel culture and advances in gay and transgender rights. Speaking at the annual meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Putin stressed that his country should adhere to its own "spiritual values and historical traditions," while steering clear of "sociocultural disturbances" in the West. (The Washington Post, 10.22.21)
• FBI agents have been conducting "court-authorized law enforcement activity" at properties in Washington and New York linked to Oleg Deripaska, a U.S.-blacklisted Russian oligarch with ties to the Kremlin, news agencies reported Oct. 19. The searches were being carried out based on two court warrants related to U.S. sanctions. (RFE/RL, 10.19.21)
• A court in Russia will hold a hearing next month into an appeal by Paul Whelan, a former U.S. Marine who is serving a lengthy prison term in Russia on espionage charges he calls trumped up, over his possible transfer home. (RFE/RL, 10.18.21)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia has notched yet another daily record for coronavirus infections and deaths as authorities prepare to reintroduce lockdown restrictions. The government's coronavirus crisis center on Oct. 22 reported 37,141 new COVID-19 cases with 1,064 people dying over the past 24 hours in what is the second successive daily case record and the fourth straight day of record deaths. (RFE/RL, 10.22.21) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia.
• Russia's official statistics showed 221,313 pandemic-related deaths by mid-October, but independent demographer Alexey Raksha calculated that excess mortality—seen by analysts as the most reliable indicator of coronavirus deaths—has reached around 750,000. Raksha's calculation used figures maintained by Rosstat, Russia's statistical agency. Meanwhile, a report in The Moscow Times estimated the figure at about 660,000. (The Washington Post, 10.17.21)
• Putin has announced a nationwide week of "nonworking" starting on Oct. 30 as the country reels from a surge in coronavirus cases and deaths. Only 35% of the country’s nearly 146 million people are fully vaccinated, despite the Russia-developed Sputnik V vaccine being widely available. The Kremlin called Oct. 19 on Russians to be "more responsible" and get vaccinated. Peskov on Oct. 21 said that Putin will scrap all upcoming face-to-face meetings due to the “epidemiological situation” in the country. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.22.21, The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.19.21, RFE/RL, 10.20.21)
• Moscow’s mayor announced Oct. 19 plans to reintroduce remote work, mandatory vaccinations for service workers and other measures to slow the surging fourth wave of the coronavirus pandemic starting next week. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.21.21, The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.19.21)
• “Revolutions are not a way to settle a crisis but a way to aggravate it. No revolution was worth the damage it did to the human potential,” Putin told an Oct. 21 session of the Valdai Discussion Club. “We need to build a social welfare state. Truth be said, Europe, especially the Nordic countries, have been advocating a social welfare state for a long time. This is essential for us, considering the income gap between various social groups, even if this problem exists in all the leading economies of the world,” he said. (Kremlin.ru, 10.21.21)
• Putin said Oct. 21 that authorities will review a law under which dozens of news outlets and reporters have been labelled as "foreign agents," which critics see as a tool for stifling dissent. (Reuters, 11.21.21)
• The Russian authorities have designated the legal entities of two media outlets—the Rosbalt news agency and the website Republic.ru—as "foreign agents" amid an intensifying crackdown on the media and civil society across the country. (RFE/RL, 10.17.21)
• Golos, an independent vote-monitoring movement, was named a “foreign agent” by Russia’s Justice Ministry in August after receiving a $3 contribution from an Armenian citizen, the movement's co-chairman Grigory Melkonyants said on Facebook. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.22.21)
• A Sept. 23-29 survey of Russians by the Levada Center revealed that 44% consider themselves people of democratic convictions (41% in 2018), while 47% do not consider themselves as such (38% in 2018). Some 32% of respondents consider themselves supporters of market reforms in the Russian economy, and 58% don't think so, according to the poll. (Russia Matters, 10.19.21)
• Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been chosen as the winner of the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought, the European Parliament's annual human rights prize, for his work to expose corruption and efforts to restrict freedoms in Russia. The Kremlin says is has no "respect" for the decision by European MPs. Navalny said Oct. 21 that his Sakharov prize—the EU's top human rights award—is an "honor." (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.22.21, RFE/RL, 10.21.21, RFE/RL, 10.20.21)
• Six officials at the Moscow regional prosecutor's office have reportedly been fired for liking social media posts by Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation, which is banned in the country as extremist. The Baza Telegram channel cited sources in the prosecutor’s office on Oct. 21 as saying that a deputy prosecutor for the town of Lytkarino is among the officials who were fired. (RFE/RL, 10.22.21)
• A Russian comedic actress has been jailed in the Far East after appearing in a video where she satirized the country’s Interior Ministry spokeswoman, local media reported Oct. 21. Larisa Krivonosova was fined and jailed for 10 days in September for illegally wearing an official uniform after she portrayed Interior Ministry spokeswoman Irina Volk on a satirical YouTube series to make fun of Russian bureaucracy, local media reports said. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.21.21)
• Russia’s Central Bank hiked interest rates to 7.5% on Oct. 22 as economists warned the country faces a triple threat of rising coronavirus cases, new lockdown measures and surging inflation. The Central Bank said inflation was “developing substantially above forecast, and is expected to be within the range of 7.4-7.9% at the end of 2021”—a huge increase from the previous forecast of under 6% that was set in July. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.22.21)
• Russia’s climate contradictions are on display on the 600-mile-long island of Sakhalin, just north of Japan. The relatively wealthy region of 500,000 people is rich in hydrocarbons, the backbone of its economy. But the regional government last year pledged to make Sakhalin Russia’s first “carbon neutral” region by 2025. (The New York Times, 10.19.21)
• Globally, the warming climate is a creeping disaster, threatening lives and livelihoods with floods, fires and droughts, and requiring tremendous effort and expenditure to combat. But in Pevek, a small port town on the Arctic Ocean in Russia’s Far North capitalizing on a boom in Arctic shipping, the warming climate is seen as a barely mitigated bonanza. “I would call it a rebirth,” said Valentina Khristoforova, a curator at a local history museum. “We are in a new era.” (The New York Times, 10.22.21)
• Auchan and Metro—two European hypermarket giants—have dropped off the list of the top ten largest retailers in Russia at the end of 1H21, writes Kommersant. In their places, Russian retail giants Ozon and Svetofor have broken into the top ten, according to data from analytical firm Infoline. As a result, nine out of the top ten retailers are now Russian companies. (bne IntelliNews, 10.20.21)

Defense and aerospace:

• On Oct. 21, the Knyaz Oleg submarine of the Borey/Project 955A type conducted its first missile launch. The Bulava missile was launched from a submerged submarine deployed in the White Sea to the Kura test site in Kamchatka. The Russian Defense Ministry reported that all warheads "successfully arrived to the designated area." (Russianforces.org, 10.21.21)
• A Russian actress and a film director returned to Earth Oct. 17 after spending 12 days on the International Space Station shooting scenes for the first movie in orbit. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.17.21)

Emergencies, security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Half of Russians (49%) believe that one can live in Russia without breaking the law while 47% believe the opposite, according to Levada’s Sept. 23-29 poll. Some 36% of Russians feel protected by the law, 58% do not. The share of those who do not feel protected by the law has been growing over the past five years and has reached the 2010 level. Some 74% of Russians in one way or another agree that many officials today practically do not obey the laws, 21% do not agree with this. (Levada Center, 10.20.21)
• A fire caused by an explosion at a gunpowder workshop has killed at least 16 people in Russia's Ryazan region. Local media reports, citing sources at regional law enforcement and emergency services, said that the explosion occurred early in the morning Oct. 22. (RFE/RL, 10.22.21)
• A court in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg has sent three suspects in a deadly mass alcohol poisoning case to pretrial detention as the death toll in the incident rose to 24. The Chkalov district court ruled on Oct. 21 that Armen Avetisian, Nadir Mamedov and Anar Ayvazov must remain in custody until at least Dec. 15. (RFE/RL, 10.21.21)
• A court in Russia has declared a notorious anti-feminist, anti-LGBT, racist group known as Male State an extremist organization. The Nizhny Novgorod regional court in the Volga Federal District on Oct. 18 banned the online-group's activities in Russia. (RFE/RL. 10.18.21)
• Turkish authorities have arrested four Russian citizens, one Ukrainian citizen and one Uzbek national on charges of "military and political espionage" linked to alleged plans to attack Chechen opposition activists residing in Turkey. The men are also suspected of buying weapons to use against Turkish-based critics of the Kremlin-backed leader of Russia's North Caucasus region of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov. (RFE/RL, 10.21.21)
• Belarusian IT engineer Syarhey Savelyeu has been identified by the head of the Gulagu.net NGO as the person who provided video materials showing images of torture in Russian prisons. He has fled to France. (RFE/RL, 10.19.21, RFE/RL, 10.17.21)
• Russian businessman Telman Ismailov, former director of Moscow’s Cherkizovo marketplace, has been granted asylum in Montenegro and released from Montenegrin prison, Montenegrin Vijesti daily reported Oct. 22, citing his attorney Milos Vuksanovic. (TASS, 10.22.21)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia hosted the Taliban for talks in Moscow on Oct. 20 in an effort to boost its influence across Central Asia. Moscow officials also called for action against Islamic State fighters, who Russia says have started to increase their presence in Afghanistan since the Taliban's takeover. Before the Oct. 20 discussions, Russia, China and Pakistan said they were willing to provide aid to Afghanistan. The EU has so far pledged €1 billion ($1.2 billion) to avert a humanitarian crisis in the region. (DW, 10.20.21)
• “I think [Biden] did the right thing by deciding to withdraw troops … But since they’ve started this ‘mess,’ they should not shed responsibility for what’s taking place and for the future,” Putin told an Oct. 21 session of the Valdai Discussion Club. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.22.21)
• “These decisions were made at the level of the United Nations. Our expectation is that these people, the Taliban, that now clearly control Afghanistan, will see that the situation develops in a positive way. If that happens, we would decide to take them off the list of terrorist organizations,” Putin told an Oct. 21 session of the Valdai Discussion Club when commenting on the possibility of recognizing the Taliban. Putin also said Afghanistan should receive economic support and get its financial assets unfrozen as stability in the war-torn country was in the interest of all its neighbors. (RFE/RL, 10.22.21, The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.22.21)
• Russia may recognize the government of the Taliban in Afghanistan on the condition of its inclusivity and observance of human rights, Russian Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko said Oct. 21. (TASS, 10.21.21)
• The EU’s drug regulator will not approve Russia’s Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine until at least the first months of 2022. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.21.21)
• The Wagner Group has already found willing customers for its services across Africa, including Mozambique, Madagascar, Sudan—and Libya, where the U.N. accused them of allegedly committing possible war crimes. Its next client may be Mali, an ex-French colony where the ruling military junta has suggested hiring 1,000 Wagner paramilitaries after Paris announced it would halve its 5,000-troop presence fighting the jihadist insurgency roiling the Sahel. (The Financial Times, 10.22.21)
• The Kremlin says Putin will not fly to Scotland for the COP26 climate summit at the end of the month. No reason was given for the decision, which is being seen as a blow to efforts to get world leaders to negotiate a new deal to stall rising global temperatures. (RFE/RL, 10.20.21)
  • Russia plans to lobby for sanctions relief on state-run energy giants that invest in green projects at the U.N. climate summit. Ruslan Edelgeriyev, Putin’s climate envoy, accused Western states of double standards for urging Russia “to reduce methane leakages and yet we have Gazprom under sanctions” for the 2014 annexation of Crimea. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.22.21)
  • The European Commissioner for Climate Action Frans Timmermans will not travel to Moscow to discuss climate action ahead of the COP summit. The visit was supposed to take place on Oct. 25. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.22.21)
• Non-oil exports drive Russia’s current account balance to a historical quarterly high of $40.8 billion in the third quarter, the CBR reported on Oct. 11. In 3Q21, exports of Russian goods and services hit $148 billion, a 65% year-on-year increase, according to the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies. Yet in the same period, the rise in imports has slowed dramatically. As of September, imports of food and agricultural raw materials have dropped for three consecutive months. (bne IntelliNews, 10.21.21)

Ukraine:

• U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has reiterated Washington's "unwavering" support for Ukraine's territorial integrity during a visit to Kyiv as Russia continues to be an "obstacle" to the peaceful resolution of the deadly conflict in eastern Ukraine. "Russia started this war and Russia is the obstacle to a peaceful resolution," Austin said at a joint press conference with Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Taran, adding: "We will continue to do everything we can to support Ukraine's efforts to develop a capability to defend itself and protect its sovereign territory." Asked about Moscow's fierce objections to Ukraine's entry into NATO, Austin said "no third country has a veto over NATO's membership decisions." (RFE/RL, 10.19.21)
• Ukraine’s state-owned arms trading agency Ukrspetsexport Corp. delivered the Oplot main battle tank to the U.S. military last week. Vadim Nozdrya, general director of Ukrspetseksport, said that the tank was shipped to the United States within the framework of the contract for the new combat vehicle. (Defence Blog, 10.19.21)
• On Oct. 13, Ukrainian border guards received medical equipment from NATO at Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs. Four mobile X-ray machines and three negative pressure wound therapy capsules were handed over to the health care institutions of the State Border Guard Service. (Interfax, 10.14.21)
• Putin has said that Ukraine's military development with Western support represents a genuine threat to Moscow. "Formal membership [of Ukraine] in NATO may not take place, but military development of the territory is already under way," Putin said during a meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club. "This really poses a threat to Russia. We are aware of that," Putin said, adding that Austin's visit to Kyiv this week had effectively paved the way for Ukraine to join NATO. (RFE/RL, 10.22.21)
• Europe’s main security monitoring mission in conflict-torn eastern Ukraine said Oct. 19 it has resumed operations after protesters blocked entrance to their hotel. The OSCE said Oct. 17 that groups of armed men prevented members of its mission from exiting the hotel in the separatist-controlled city of Horlivka. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.19.21)
• Russia on Oct. 19 demanded Ukraine grant access to a Russian citizen who was captured last week on the front line of the conflict between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Moscow separatists. Russia’s Foreign Ministry accused Ukrainian forces of detaining ceasefire observer Andrei Kosyak Oct. 13 and failing to inform Moscow via diplomatic channels within an allotted three-day period. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.20.21)
• Gazprom has declined to book additional transit capacity through Ukraine and has booked only a third of the proposed transit capacity of the Yamal-Europe pipeline, according to the results of November booking auctions. The last auction, for October, ended in the same format. (Interfax, 10.18.21)
• Ukraine has enough gas in storage facilities for this winter, said CEO of Naftogaz Yuriy Vitrenko. Currently, there are almost 19 billion cubic meters of gas in storage. Ukraine will be able to fully supply itself with gas and abandon gas imports entirely within five years, according to Vitrenko. (bne IntelliNews, 10.21.21, Ukraine Business News, 10.18.21)
• Ukraine said it mistakenly sanctioned more than 100 people earlier this year on suspicion of being crime bosses in a debacle for its security services. Mikhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodoymyr Zelenskiy, told the media the government is investigating whether the mistake was intentional. (RFE/RL, 10.17.21)
• Ukrainian lawmakers have approved a bill to strengthen the independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), a move that will move it toward securing more loans from the IMF under a $5 billion loan deal. (RFE/RL, 10.19.21)
• Zelenskiy wants to replace central bank governor Kyrylo Shevchenko, according to people familiar with his plans. Zelenskiy isn’t happy with Shevchenko’s performance, the people said. The governor has fallen out with some of the bank’s senior executives, triggering a wave of resignations that unnerved Western donors including the IMF. (Bloomberg, 10.15.21)
• The growth of Ukraine’s GDP in January-August 2021 accelerated to 2.9% compared to 2.1% in January-July 2021, the Ministry of Economy has said. (Interfax, 10.18.21)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Austin has signed a preliminary agreement with his Georgian counterpart to develop security cooperation between the two countries, as he kicked off a three-nation visit to the Black Sea region to show support for allies and partner states in the face of Russia's "destabilizing actions.” During a ceremony in Tbilisi on Oct. 18, Austin and Georgian Defense Minister Juansher Burchuladze signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the Georgia Defense and Deterrence Enhancement Initiative, which the Pentagon chief said “marks a new phase of our bilateral security cooperation” and “demonstrates the U.S. commitment to supporting Georgia.” (RFE/RL, 10.18.21)
• Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who has been on a hunger strike in prison for nearly three weeks, has consented to medical intervention while vowing to continue his protest. Dozens of European lawmakers and other current and former politicians—including former presidents of Latvia and Ukraine—have called for the release of Saakashvili. (RFE/RL, 10.18.21, RFE/RL, 10.20.21)
• Russian and Tajik troops conducted joint drills Oct. 22 near Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan, as part of efforts to prepare for possible security threats issuing from Afghanistan. (AP, 10.22.21)
• A visiting Kazakh presidential envoy has discussed humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan and the resumption of trade and economic ties with top members of the Taliban-led administration. The press service of Kazakhstan’s President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev made the announcement on Oct. 17 following a visit by his special envoy for international cooperation to Kabul. (RFE/RL, 10.18.21)
• Uzbekistan is hoping to rent up to 1 million hectares of land in Russia to grow wheat, soy and oilseeds there. (RFE/RL, 10.17.21)
• The Supreme Court of Kyrgyzstan has reinstated former President Almazbek Atambaev's 11-year prison sentence over the illegal release of a notorious crime boss in 2013. Atambaev's lawyer, Zamir Zhooshev, told RFE/RL that Atambaev's defense team received the Supreme Court decision on Oct. 19, a week after the actual ruling was made. (RFE/RL, 10.19.21)
• Belarus has kicked out French Ambassador to Belarus Nicolas de Lacoste amid poor relations with the EU over Alexander Lukashenko's brutal rule. (RFE/RL, 10.18.21)
• The EU’s foreign ministers have expressed support for new measures to halt the flow of illegal migrants that the bloc accuses Belarus of sending in retaliation for sanctions against Lukashenko and his regime over its crackdown on the opposition. (RFE/RL, 10.18.21)
• In January-August 2021 Belarus' GDP rose by 3%, while the foreign trade surplus exceeded $2 billion and beat the record of the year 2013, Belarus’s First Deputy Prime Minister Nikolai Snopkov said. Exports are being driven by high food exports. (bne IntelliNews, 10.18.21)
• Moldova declared a 30-day state of emergency Oct. 22 in an effort to secure the ex-Soviet country cheaper natural gas from Europe after traditional supplier Moscow hiked prices. Gazprom has hiked prices from $550 per thousand cubic meters last month to $790 this month—a level Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Spinu said was "not justified and not realistic" for Europe's poorest country. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 10.22.21)
• Moldova has reached a provisional loan agreement with the IMF worth about $564 million over 40 months. (RFE/RL, 10.21.21)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• Alexandra Arkhipova, a social anthropologist who researches COVID-related misinformation in Russia, where a low vaccination rate is producing an alarming surge and a record-breaking death toll: ''Russians are no more a people of the collective. Now the people became quite individualistic, and the concept of 'the public good' is very hard to explain.'' (The New York Times, 10.20.21)