Russia in Review, Oct. 13-20, 2017

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

  • During a period when the Obama administration made two major decisions benefiting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s commercial nuclear ambitions, the FBI had gathered substantial evidence that Russian nuclear industry officials were engaged in bribery, kickbacks, extortion and money laundering designed to grow Russia’s atomic energy business inside the United States, according to government documents and interviews. (The Hill, 10.17.17)
    • The critical question in the uranium story is whether the agencies involved in the deal with Russia knew about the criminal probe. (Axios, 10.19.17)
    • During a trip to Moscow in June 2010 for a paid speaking engagement Bill Clinton met with Putin, who was then prime minister, at the latter’s home; prior to the trip Clinton had sought clearance from the State Department to meet with a top nuclear industry official. (The Hill, 10.19.17)
    • U.S. President Donald Trump on Oct. 19 blasted the media, saying it doesn't want to cover an Obama-era uranium deal with Russia. (The Hill, 10.19.17)
  • In a far-ranging speech and question-answer session on Oct. 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin repeatedly voiced a new take on an old grievance against the U.S.: Not only did Washington and its allies take advantage of Russia’s weakness in the 1990s, it did so by betraying Moscow’s trust on nuclear-security cooperation. Russia, he said, let Americans into its “holy of holies”—its nuclear weapons complex; in return it saw Washington repeatedly ignore its interests because of America’s new-found understanding of what bad shape Russia was in. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
  • In the same speech/Q&A Russian President Vladimir Putin also said that foundational multi-lateral and bilateral agreements are being "devalued." He accused the U.S. of unilaterally abandoning the two countries’ 123 Agreement and violating the terms of the U.S.-Russian plutonium disposition agreement. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Oct. 19 that Russia is fulfilling all United Nations Security Council resolutions, but the Korea problem should be solved diplomatically, through dialogue, not arm-twisting. “North Korea should not be backed into a corner,” he said, and threats of a disarming strike create a dangerous situation. On Oct. 16 Putin signed a decree imposing restrictions on North Korea in compliance with a UNSC resolution responding to Pyongyang’s 2016 missiles tests. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17, Reuters, 10.16.17)
  • North Korean officials rejected a proposal to hold direct talks with their South Korean counterparts in St Petersburg on Oct. 16 about Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile program despite Moscow’s call to do so. (Reuters, 10.15.17, Reuters, 10.16.17)
  • A senior Russian diplomat said Oct. 20 that Moscow and Washington are continuing a dialogue on North Korea, while Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov urged world powers to get behind a joint Russian-Chinese roadmap for settling the crisis. (Reuters, 10.20.17, Reuters, 10.20.17)
  • Sea trips between Vladivostok and North Korea have resumed after a two-month break, with the transport of cargo. (Reuters, 10.16.17)

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

  • Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has told his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araqchi, that Moscow remains committed to the Iran nuclear deal. (Reuters, 10.19.17)
  • Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Oct. 20 that the break-up of a deal on Iran’s nuclear program would send an alarming message about international security mechanisms, and could impact the situation on the Korean peninsula, while a senior Russian diplomat said Moscow and Washington are continuing a dialogue on the deal’s future. (Reuters, 10.20.17, Reuters, 10.20.17)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

  • NATO says its ambassadors will hold talks with Russia's envoy next week in a rare meeting of the NATO-Russia Council. Afghanistan, Ukraine and reducing the risk of accidents and clashes during military exercises are expected to be on the agenda. (AP, 10.20.17)
  • A resurgence in Russian submarine technology has reignited an undersea rivalry that played out in a cat-and-mouse sea hunt across the Mediterranean. (Wall Street Journal, 10.20.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 19 that Moscow is not concerned by the U.S./NATO presence in Eastern Europe. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)

Missile defense:

  • No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

  • Yes, Russia wants full nuclear disarmament and will strive for it, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 19. However, he added, modern states are developing new high-precision weapons whose destructive power is coming close to that of nuclear weapons. The Russian leader also called the ABM Treaty a cornerstone of strategic stability and said Russia is not planning to exit New START. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 19 that Russia has “complied and will continue to comply” with the INF Treaty, but if America abandons it Moscow’s response will be “immediate and mirror-like.” He added that Russia may have had the “temptation” to violate the treaty if it hadn’t developed sea- and air-launched missiles, including the Kalibr. The U.S. has long had such missiles, he said, which made the INF effectively a unilateral disarmament treaty; now that Russia has sea- and air-launched missiles, Moscow feels it’s simply leveled the playing field. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 19 that Washington has failed to fulfill the terms of nuclear and chemical weapons treaties. (The Washington Post, 10.19.17)

Counter-terrorism:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 19 that, as former director of the Federal Security Service, he knows definitively that “there was full support of separatism and radicalism” in Russia’s North Caucasus on the part of the U.S., apparently referring to Moscow’s so-called first war in Chechnya in the early 1990s. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
  • Islamic State is already preparing for a new phase, morphing back into the underground insurgency it started as, and likely to revert to more traditional terrorist activity. Another major concern, now that Islamic State-held territory is reduced, is what to do with the foreigners who had joined the fight and might return home to plan attacks there. (New York Times, 10.17.17, Bloomberg, 10.17.17)

Conflict in Syria:

  • A looming confrontation at the U.N. between the U.S. and Russia could jeopardize an international investigation into chemical attacks in Syria, notably a deadly sarin bombing in a rebel-held village last April. (New York Times, 10.20.17, Reuters, 10.19.17, Reuters, 10.13.17, Reuters, 10.18.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 19 that Russia will soon finish off the “terrorists” in Syria, but the root causes of radicalism need to be addressed, including lack of education. He added that negotiations between the government and the opposition promise to be very difficult, and that contacts with “our American partners” regarding peace talks in Astana have been overall more positive than negative. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
  • In a thinly veiled dig at the U.S., Russian President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 19 that “some of our counterparts” are doing everything they can to ensure there’s permanent chaos in the Middle East and some people still think this chaos can be managed. The Syrian experience, he added, shows that there are alternatives to this overconfident, destructive policy: Russia works together with the legitimate government and other regional powers to fight terrorism, respecting the interests of all participants in the Syrian process. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
  • Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has told Israel that Moscow has agreed to expand a buffer zone along the Israeli-Syrian border, where Iranian and Hezbollah forces will not be allowed to enter. On Oct. 17, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that he will not tolerate an Iranian military presence in Syria. Netanyahu’s Oct. 17 meeting with Shoigu focused mostly on Iran's efforts to establish a presence in Syria. (The Jerusalem Post, 10.18.17, New York Times, 10.17.17)
  • U.S.-backed militias in Syria have taken full control of Islamic State’s de facto capital Raqqa on Oct. 17 after a four month campaign. (Reuters, 10.17.17, Bloomberg, 10.17.17 New York Times, 10.17.17, RFE/RL, 10.17.17, The Washington Post, 10.14.17, Reuters, 10.15.17, Bloomberg, 10.17.17)
  • On Oct. 16, Israel destroyed a Russian-made, anti-aircraft missile launcher in Syria after it had opened fire on Israeli jets flying over Lebanon. Russian forces in Syria were notified in real time. Israel and Russia have established a special mechanism to prevent friction between their air forces in Syria, officials said.  (AP, 10.16.17)
  • Syria demanded on Oct. 14 that Turkish troops who had entered northwestern Syria leave immediately, saying their presence constituted a “flagrant aggression.” Turkey says it is operating alongside Syrian rebel groups to implement a deal reached last month with Russia and Iran to reduce fighting between insurgents. (Reuters, 10.14.17)
  • Egypt has been invited to join the talks on Syria in Astana as an observer. The next round of negotiations is scheduled for late October. (TASS, 10.17.17)
  • Syrian government troops and their allies, Iran and Russia, made gains Oct. 17 after storming remaining Islamic State-held districts of Deir el-Zour in eastern Syria. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Islamic State militants still controlled nearly five of the city’s neighborhoods. (New York Times, 10.17.17, Reuters, 10.17.17)
  • Supported by heavy Russian air strikes, Syrian government and allied forces have taken the eastern Syrian town of al-Mayadeen from Islamic State. (Reuters, 10.14.17)
  • “The operation [in Syria] is close to the end. There are several problems which require urgent solution and the prospects of further development of the situation in Syria require discussion,” Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Oct. 16 at a meeting with his Israeli counterpart, Avigdor Lieberman. (Reuters, 10.16.17)
  • The Russian private military company known as Wagner lost at least nine men from August to September in Syria, according to an investigation by Russian investigative bloggers from the Conflict Intelligence Team. (BBC Monitoring, 10.17.17)
  • Two weeks after Russia said it had critically injured Abu Mohamad al-Golani, leader of the Tahrir al-Sham militant group in Syria, an undated video was published on Oct. 18, purporting to show al-Golani apparently in good health. (Reuters, 10.18.17)

Cyber security:

  • Skepticism about official U.S. allegations against Kaspersky Labs and related recent leaks to the press reflects the damaged relationship between the U.S. government and the U.S. information security community. (Yahoo Finance, 10.14.17)

Elections interference:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin on Oct. 19 reiterated in strong terms his belief that the U.S. is in the throes of an unprecedented, unprovoked anti-Russia campaign, suggesting that sour-grapes Democrats were behind it: “Someone lost the election to Mr. Trump, placed all the blame on Russia and launched just unbridled anti-Russia hysteria,” he said. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
  • U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions rebuffed repeated requests from Democratic lawmakers to detail his conversations with U.S. President Donald Trump on the firing of former FBI Director James Comey at a contentious oversight hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee Oct. 18. Sessions defended his role in Comey’s firing, citing Comey's 2016 handling of the investigation into Hillary Clinton's email use and describing it as a monumental mistake. Sessions also said he hasn't been interviewed by special counsel Robert Mueller. (The Washington Post, 10.18.17, Wall Street Journal, 10.18.17)
  • Former Trump administration press secretary Sean Spicer was interviewed Oct. 16 by special counsel Robert Mueller’s team, suggesting that the special prosecutor is ramping up interviews with the Trump White House inner circle. Former White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus was interviewed by Mueller’s team Oct. 13. (AP, 10.18.17)
  • The U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee has asked Michael G. Flynn, son of U.S. President Donald Trump’s former national security adviser, to provide documents and testimony as part of the panel’s probe into Russian election interference. Flynn was a close aide to his father and accompanied him on trips, including one to Moscow in 2015 for an event where the elder Flynn sat next to Russian President Vladimir Putin. (Reuters, 10.17.17)
  • Rep. Adam Schiff of the House intelligence committee argues against “growing calls from the White House and outside parties aligned with the president to halt the congressional investigations rather than allow the evidence to dictate the pace and breadth of our inquiry.” (The Washington Post, 10.13.17)
  • The Senate Intelligence Committee investigating U.S. allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 election said Oct. 20 that it had (again) postponed a public hearing with Michael Cohen, President Trump’s lawyer. (Reuters, 10.20.17)
  • A growing number of key Republicans are calling to end the Russia investigations in Congress in 2017, contending that the Democratic push to extend the investigation into 2018 could amount to a fishing expedition. Democrats, meanwhile, want to see more urgency and are raising concerns that the probes are rushing witnesses and stalling appearances of key Trump associates. (CNN, 10.18.17, Bloomberg, 10.17.17)
  • Facebook and Twitter will send their general counsels to testify on Nov. 1 before two Congressional panels investigating possible Russian election meddling. An executive from Google is also expected to appear, but the company has not yet said who will testify. (Reuters, 10.19.17)
  • A bipartisan trio of U.S. senators has introduced legislation to regulate paid political ads that appear on Facebook, Google, and other social media in an effort to prevent foreign interference in U.S. elections, with special emphasis placed on alleged actions by Russia. (RFE/RL, 10.19.17, New York Times, 10.19.17)
  • CIA Director Mike Pompeo declared Oct. 19 that U.S. intelligence agencies determined that Russia’s interference in the 2016 American presidential election did not alter the outcome, a statement that distorted spy agency findings. The CIA issued a correction the same day. (The Washington Post, 10.19.17, Business Insider, 10.19.17)
  • Russian operatives used a fake Twitter account, @Ten_GOP, which claimed to speak for Tennessee Republicans, to persuade American politicians, celebrities and journalists to share select content with their own massive lists of followers. (The Washington Post, 10.18.17)
  • Russian journalists have published a massive investigation into the U.S. operations of a St. Petersburg “troll factory,” saying it paid unwitting American activists in an attempt to sow discord in the United States. U.S. investigators believe the “factory,” which used social media to spread fake news during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, was financed by a company run by Yevgeny Prigozhin—a Russian oligarch dubbed "chef" to Putin by the Russian press. (Meduza, 10.17.17, CNN, 10.17.17, The Times, 10.18.17)
  • A group, known as Black Fist, linked to the Russian operatives behind thousands of fake Facebook ads, paid personal trainers across the United States to run self-defense classes for African Americans in an apparent attempt to stoke fear and gather contact details of Americans potentially susceptible to their propaganda. (CNN, 10.18.17)
  • The research firm behind the controversial dossier of unverified allegations about U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia will reportedly not comply with the House Intelligence Committee's subpoena to testify. Fusion GPS plans to decline the request to testify by invoking constitutional privileges. U.S. President Donald Trump on Oct. 19 suggested in a tweet that Russia, the FBI, Democrats or all three paid for the dossier. (The Hill, 10.16.17, AP, 10.19.17)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign spent more than $1 million in legal fees in the last three months, totaling almost $2 million this year. The vast majority of spending—$800,000—went to law firm Jones Day, which is representing the Trump campaign. Another $238,000 was paid to Donald Trump Jr.’s lawyer, Alan Futerfas. (AP, 10.16.17)
  • U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said Oct. 19 that interference in U.S. elections by another nation “is warfare,” telling an audience in New York that such meddling has become Russia’s go-to tactic. (Politico, 10.19.17)
  • Hillary Clinton told an Australian state broadcaster that WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange was a tool of Russia in his release of the hacked emails that hurt her presidential campaign. (AP, 10.16.17)

Energy exports from CIS:

  • OPEC sent its strongest signal yet that output cuts will be extended until the end of 2018, saying negotiations are taking their lead from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s tentative backing for a further nine months of curbs. (Bloomberg, 10.19.17)
  • A global deal to cut oil output has not led to a breakthrough on high inventory levels, while an expected rise in U.S. shale oil output may destabilize the market in 2018, head of Russia’s Rosneft, Igor Sechin, said. (Reuters, 10.19.17)

Bilateral economic ties:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 19 that the recent U.S. sanctions package “clearly aims to squeeze Russia out of European energy markets” and to force Europe to abandon Russian gas for more expensive U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). New pipelines being built with Russia’s participation, including Nordstream-2, are facing obstacles, he said, even though “such a diversification of logistics is economically efficient, advantageous to Europe, [and] serves to enhance its security.” (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)

Other bilateral issues:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin showered criticism on the “so-called West,” particularly on Washington, on Oct. 19, leaving foreign-relations analysts in the audience with a rather grim view of the foreseeable future of U.S.-Russia ties. The Russian leader did make a point, however, of blaming the troubled relationship on Congress and President Trump’s predecessors rather than the current administration. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
    • Opinion polls suggest that harsh rhetoric towards the West plays well with many Russian voters, who credit Putin for restoring national pride and standing up to what they see as Western encroachment. (Reuters, 10.19.17)
    • Our greatest mistake in relations with the West, Putin said Oct. 19, is that we trusted you too much, while your mistake is that you took advantage of this, treating it as weakness. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
    • The end of the USSR offered a unique opportunity for a genuinely new chapter in history, Putin said Oct. 19; unfortunately, “Western partners” divided up “the geopolitical legacy of the Soviet Union, grew convinced of their unquestionable rightness,” “declared themselves the winners of the Cold War” and “began openly interfering in the affairs of sovereign states, exporting democracy” like the Soviet leadership tried to export socialism. “Two and a half decades have been lost.” (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
    • We had greater differences in Soviet times, Putin said Oct. 19 of U.S.-Russian relations, but there was greater respect; no one would pull down flags at Soviet diplomatic institutions. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
  • President Trump’s unpredictably is in part due to powerful resistance within the U.S. that makes it difficult for him to keep his campaign promises, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 19. The U.S. is a great power, he added, and Moscow will still work with it if Washington wants to. He also lamented the negligible volume of bilateral trade. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 19 that Russian-U.S. dialogue in Syria has achieved results and that experience can be replicated in other areas. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
  • Despite his criticism, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Washington and Moscow should “cross out” the past, turn a new page and move forward on the basis of “mutual respect” as equal partners. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin on Oct. 19 repeated his long-standing accusation that U.S. leaders have displayed double standards with their interventions in Iraq and the former Yugoslavia while slapping Moscow with sanctions over its annexation of Crimea. (The Washington Post, 10.19.17)
  • Regarding Russian media outlets RT and Sputnik, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 19 that Russia will immediately reciprocate for whatever happens to Russian media in the U.S. RT has not yet registered with the U.S. Department of Justice as a foreign agent, despite an Oct. 17 deadline, and has said it will fight the request. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17, CNN, 10.19.17)
  • A retired Russian police general from an elite but corrupt anti-organized-crime unit now owns $38 million worth of Florida real estate. (Miami Herald, 10.20.17)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin did not say in his far-ranging speech/Q&A session Oct. 19 whether he’ll run for reelection. But he said that Russia’s next president should ensure that the country becomes an economically competitive, modern society with a strong defense and a stable political system. (The Washington Post, 10.19.17)
  • Europe’s top human rights court ruled on Oct. 17 that Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s 2014 fraud conviction had been “arbitrary and manifestly unreasonable” and ordered Russia to pay him compensation. (Reuters, 10.17.17)
  • Russian election officials say opposition leader Alexei Navalny will not be eligible to run for office until about 2028 due to a financial-crimes conviction that he says was fabricated by authorities for political reasons. (RFE/RL, 10.17.17)
  • Russian socialite and TV personality Ksenia Sobchak on Oct. 18 announced plans to run in next year’s presidential election. Some Russian liberals fear that Sobchak, the daughter of Anatoly Sobchak, Putin’s former mentor, will split the opposition vote. (Reuters, 10.18.17, The Moscow Times, 10.18.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 19 to expect 2% growth of Russia’s economy and 3% inflation, which he said would be the lowest in post-Soviet Russian history. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin is launching his own version of Bitcoin, the CryptoRuble, to ensure his government receives tax from the profits of people using cyber currencies. (Daily Mail, 10.17.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin did not give a black-or-white assessment of the Russian Revolution at the Oct. 19 event, saying it tightly wove together the negative and the positive. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
  • A new Russian TV series on Leon Trotsky may be intentionally drawing a parallel between Trotsky and opposition politician Alexei Navalny. “The message for young Russians is obvious: your Navalny might be charismatic and speak well but, like Trotsky, he is destructive, savage, unpatriotic and probably working for foreign governments,” says Alexander Reznik, a historian at Russia’s Higher School of Economics. (Independent, 10.16.17) 

Defense and aerospace:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized the power and rapid pace of technological progress in his Oct. 19 speech, saying that science and technology are the crucial factor in the military and security spheres and these changes are irreversible. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
  • Russian launched an unmanned space freighter carrying supplies to the International Space Station from the Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on Oct. 14. (RFE/RL, 10.14.17)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • A Russian court has imposed an 800,000 ruble ($14,000) fine on messaging app Telegram for refusing to provide the Federal Security Service with encryption keys. (RFE/RL, 10.16.17)
  • The Russian Interior Ministry’s antiextremism department says parents and teachers of minors who attend rallies held without government permission should be liable for punishment under the law. (RFE/RL, 10.17.17)
  • Communist members of the Russian parliament are calling for a ban on the Russian release of “The Death of Stalin,” a film by British satirist Armando Iannucci, calling it “abominable filth.” (Reuters, 10.18.17)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • Russian State Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin has said Moscow will not consider itself bound by the judgments of the European Court of Human Rights if Russia is not allowed to participate in the selection of judges. The judges are selected by deputies of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE). The Russian PACE delegation was stripped of its voting rights in April 2014, following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. (RFE/RL, 10.14.17)
  • Russia's state-owned Rosneft oil company said Oct. 20 it has agreed with the government of Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region to take a controlling stake in the region's main oil export pipeline. Earlier, Rosneft lent the Kurdish region $1.2 billion to cover its budget deficit. (RFE/RL, 10.20.17)
  • Russia formally handed over six MiG-29 fighter jets to Serbia on Oct. 20, part of an arms delivery that has the potential to accentuate tensions in the war-weary Balkans. The ceremony at a military airport close to Belgrade was attended by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. (AP, 10.20.17)
  • Ahead of a visit to the Philippines by Russia’s defense minister, Russian naval ships are docking in Manila and delivering military equipment. President Duterte has vowed to diversify the country's ties away from the U.S. and toward China and Russia. (AP, 10.20.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 19 that the situation in Spain is an internal matter for Spain, but used the current secession crisis with Catalonia to complain once again about Western double standards: Why was the disintegration of several European states welcomed with glee in years past, he asked rhetorically. And answered: It was due in part to political expediencies and a desire to court “the big brother in Washington” that some players unconditionally supported the independence of Kosovo and now, there you go, we have Catalonia. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized the central role of the U.N. in his Oct. 19 speech, saying there is no alternative to the organization and any reform of the U.N. should be incremental. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
  • Russia's Gazprom will work with the world's largest oil producer Saudi Aramco in hard-to-recover oil production and on a technology known as hydraulic fracturing. (Reuters, 10.18.17)
  • Eurostat data from the first seven months of 2017 shows that the decline in EU-Russia trade has not only stopped but has been reversed, with an expected increase of 20% by the end of the year compared to 2016. (EU Observer, 10.17.17)
  • Russia has reached an agreement with Venezuela on restructuring its debt to Moscow. (Reuters, 10.16.17)

China:

  • Regarding Russian-Chinese relations, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 19 that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping call each other friends because it reflects their “human relationship,” adding that the two countries’ interests often coincide or are close and they always reach mutually beneficial agreements on disputable issues. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)

Ukraine:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 19 that Russia wants friendly relations with Ukraine, but closing Russia’s border with eastern Ukraine—i.e., restoring Ukraine’s control over its internationally recognized border—before Kiev gives Donbass special autonomous status and implements an amnesty would lead to a massacre on the scale of Srebrenica. He likewise suggested the E.U. had not fully considered the implications of its proposed Yanukovych-era free-trade agreement with Kiev, which would have allowed Ukraine to funnel European goods into Russia tariff-free. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin on Oct. 19 blamed the “unconstructive position” of the previous European Commission for Ukraine’s “coup” and said the ball is now in Europe’s court. He also accused Ukraine of sabotaging Minsk-2 and called on the international community to put pressure on Ukraine, not just Russia. (Russia Matters, 10.19.17)
  • Several thousand protesters gathered early Oct. 17 in front of Ukraine's parliament, amid a heavy police presence, at a rally organized by firebrand politician Mikheil Saakashvili and other opposition leaders. Protesters are calling for changes to Ukraine's election laws to encourage competition and for the establishment of an anti-corruption high court; some urged President Petro Poroshenko to step down and some demanded that Ukrainian lawmakers be stripped of their immunity from prosecution (see below). The demonstrators set up tents in front of the parliament building and are vowing to continue protesting until the demands are met. The mainly peaceful demonstration briefly turned violent, possibly because of the tents. A smaller rally took place outside the National Bank of Ukraine. Tensions had been running high after Ukraine's SBU security agency warned on Oct. 16 that "armed provocations" were planned for the protest. (RFE/RL, 10.17.17, AP, 10.17.17, Kyiv Post, 10.17.17, Interfax-Ukraine, 10.17.17)
  • At least 10 people were arrested on Oct. 18 as police used tear gas against the Ukrainian protesters at a tent camp outside the parliament building in Kiev. (RFE/RL, 10.19.17)
  • President Petro Poroshenko on Oct. 17 submitted to parliament an urgent bill on amendments to Article 80 of the Constitution, abolishing immunity from prosecution for Ukrainian lawmakers. (Interfax-Ukraine, 10.17.17)
  • Dozens of people were detained Oct. 14 in Crimea for demonstrating in defense of Crimean Tatars. A lawyer following the situation said more than 100 people had staged one-person protests across Crimea earlier in the day and that at least 34 had been detained, even though one-person protests do not require advance permission from officials. The Russian authorities in Crimea reported that 49 people had been detained and released after "precautionary conversations." (RFE/RL, 10.14.17)
  • Thousands of Ukrainian nationalists marched through Kiev on Oct. 14 to mark the 75th anniversary of the creation of the controversial Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA). Organizers said as many as 20,000 people took part, which was supported by the right-wing Freedom, Right Sector and National Corp political parties. Some 5,000 police were on hand to keep order. Journalists reported seeing some marchers giving Nazi salutes. (RFE/RL, 10.14.17)
  • A statue dedicated to Russian “volunteer" fighters in eastern Ukraine has been unveiled in the Russian city of Rostov, less than 100 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, the local news website 1rnd.ru reported Oct. 16. The unveiling was attended was attended by Donetsk People’s Republic leader Alexander Zakharchenko and Russian presidential aide Vladislav Surkov. (The Moscow Times, 10.17.17)
  • The official investigation into the downing of flight MH17 is “closing in” on identifying every accessory to the crash, including top officials and military commanders who made the decision to bring the Buk system to Ukraine, according to the Dutch prosecutor leading the probe; however, there is no “finalized list of suspects” yet. (Novaya Gazeta, 10.15.17)
  • Ukraine has banned a new Russian banknote that includes images from the annexed Ukrainian region of Crimea. (RFE/RL, 10.14.17)
  • Ukrainian diplomat Vasyl Kyrylych has warned Ukrainian nationals not to travel to Russia, as it has become a "territory of danger." (BBC Monitoring Ukraine & Baltics, 10.18.17)
  • Because Ukraine’s two separatist regions house the country’s major coal mines and Kiev isn’t trading with them, in hopes of choking off their economies, Ukraine has to import coal to produce electricity. (Ukraine received its first major shipment of American anthracite last month—part of a $79 million deal with a U.S. coal company.) Meanwhile, it seems that some European countries—including Ukraine’s staunch supporter Poland—are buying coal from the separatist republics, while Ukraine is buying it back at a mark-up, along with Russian gas—also through intermediary countries at a premium. (Observer, 10.17.17)
  • Ukraine has filed a World Trade Organization complaint challenging Russian trade restrictions on beer, vodka, juice, wallpaper and a product close to President Petro Poroshenko's heart: confectionery. Ukraine’s Economy Ministry said this was its third trade dispute against Russia in as many years. (Reuters, 10.16.17)
  • Hungary says it will “block and boycott” all attempts to draw Ukraine more deeply into the European Union unless Kiev changes a new education law that rolls back options for schools to teach lessons in languages other than Ukrainian. Ukraine has some 150,000 ethnic Hungarians and many Hungarian schools. The education ministers of Ukraine and Poland also plan to meet and discuss the provisions of the new law. (AP, 10.16.17, Interfax-Ukraine, 10.16.17)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • Bosnian Serb lawmakers passed a non-binding resolution Oct. 18 opposing the country's potential membership in NATO in a symbolic measure by pro-Russia politicians. (AP, 10.18.17)
  • Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev has held talks with the visiting leader of Russia's North Caucasus region of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov. Their talks on Oct. 16 focused on trade, economic and cultural ties between Uzbekistan and Chechnya. (RFE/RL, 10.17.17)
  • Omurbek Babanov, chief rival of Kyrgyzstan’s ruling party candidate Sooronbai Jeenbekov, has alleged the voting in the country’s Oct. 15 presidential election was marred by violations, but suggested he would not challenge the official result, potentially paving the way for a peaceful transfer of power. Preliminary results indicated that Jeenbekov won more than 54% of the vote. (RFE/RL, 10.16.17)
  • Moldova's Constitutional Court says that pro-Russia Moldovan President Igor Dodon can be temporarily suspended after refusing to swear in a new defense minister, proposed by pro-European Prime Minister Pavel Filip. (RFE/RL, 10.17.17)

IV. Quoteworthy

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin: “Our main mistake in relations with the West is that we trusted you too much. And your mistake is that you took this trust for weakness and abused this trust.” (Kremlin website [RU], 10.19.17)
  • "The Russians have made it very clear that should the report blame the Syrians, suddenly they won't have faith in the JIM. If the report doesn't blame the Syrians, then they say that they will. We can't work like that," U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley said, regarding Russia’s comments on the future of the inquiry into chemical weapons use in Syria. (Reuters, 10.18.17)