4 Things to Know

1. Volodymyr Zelenskyy asserted Oct. 17 that Ukraine had two options to deter further Russian aggression: becoming a nuclear power or joining NATO, which would guarantee protection from the military alliance’s members, NYT reported. The Ukrainian leader then later clarified during a news conference with NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte that Ukraine was not preparing to build nuclear weapons, according to NYT. When asked by a journalist how long it would take Ukraine to create a nuclear bomb, Zelenskyy responded: "Sometimes we create problems for ourselves. Right now, you are doing exactly that,” according to Media Zone. Vladimir Putin described Zelenskyy’s rhetoric as a provocation and asserted that Russia will not allow the creation of nuclear weapons by Ukraine under any circumstances, according to RIA Novosti.
2. This week Zelenskyy publicly unveiled his five-point "victory plan" to end the war by 2025. The first step of the plan involves Ukraine’s immediate invitation to NATO. The second point focuses on strengthening Ukraine’s security through guarantees allowing the use of long-range weapons for military strikes inside Russia and joint air defense operations with neighboring countries. The third and fourth points provide for the deployment of non-nuclear deterrence assets in Ukraine and for a post-war agreement for joint management of Ukraine’s critical resources. Finally, the plan calls for some U.S. military contingents in Europe to be replaced with Ukrainian troops after the war is over. Given the reaction to the plan in Washington and other Western capitals so far, it is unlikely that Zelenskyy will win the unanimous support of Kyiv’s allies for Ukraine’s immediate admittance into NATO. Countries such as Germany also oppose supplying longer-range weapons, according to Ukraine’s Korrespondent.net, even as Ukrainian forces continue to cede territory in the east, coming closer to losing the strategic town of Chasiv Yar this week.*
3. South Korean and Ukrainian officials have accused Moscow and Pyongyang of arranging for 10,000 or more North Korean soldiers to train in Russia to then fight in the Russian-Ukrainian war on Russia’s side, Bloomberg, Yonhap and Istories reported. The Kremlin has rejected these reports, describing them as an “information hoax,” according to Euronews. North Korea has previously been repeatedly accused of providing artillery ammunition and missiles for Russia’s war efforts.
4. Speaking to BRICS media ahead of the group’s summit on Oct. 22–24 in Russia, Vladimir Putin declared that “the United States is 15 years” too late to “stop China's development.” Putin—who is to host Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi at the BRICS summit in Tatarstan—also declared that “in some areas, humanity cannot exist without the BRICS countries. I mean food markets, energy markets.”

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Director General of Rosatom Alexey Likhachev told Russian President Vladimir Putin that his company’s average annual revenue growth was 24%. He said the company’s package of orders for the next 10 years was 52 trillion rubles. (Kremlin.ru, 10.15.24)
• The BRICS nuclear energy platform to be established will comprise companies, plants and organizations related to technologies, nuclear power and science, Likhachev said. (TASS, 10.17.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• In comments on Oct. 14, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned North Korea is increasingly assisting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. “We see that the alliance between Russia and regimes like North Korea is growing,” Zelenskyy said in his daily address to the nation Sunday evening without providing any other details. “This concerns not only the transfer of weapons, this is about the transfer of people from North Korea to the army of the occupier.” The Guardian reported that North Korea sent military engineers to help Russia deploy ballistic missiles. (Bloomberg, 10.14.24)
  • South Korea's National Intelligence Service has received information that the DPRK is planning to send 12,000 troops, including special forces, to Russia. This was reported by the South Korean news agency Yonhap, citing a statement from the intelligence service. South Korea claims Pyongyang began moving special forces to Russia earlier this month. (RFE/RL, 10.18.24, Istories, 10.18.24)
  • In comments Oct. 17, Zelenskyy said he has intelligence reports that 10,000 North Korean soldiers are preparing to enter the war on the side of Russia against Ukraine. (FT, 10.17.24)
  • Approximately 11,000 North Korean infantry soldiers are undergoing training in eastern Russia to be deployed to fight against Ukraine. They are expected to start combat operations in November, according to Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence. The training is undergoing at military sites in Khabarovsk, Ussuriysk, Blagoveshchensk and Vladivostok. (RBC.ua, 10.18.24)
  • South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol convened an emergency security meeting Oct. 18 to discuss the reported deployment of North Korean combat troops to help Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 10.18.24)
  • In the period between Oct. 8 and Oct. 13, Seoul was monitoring the transport of approximately 1,500 North Korean special forces from the areas near Chongjin, Hamhung and Musudan to Vladivostok, Russia. According to the National Intelligence Service, four landing ships and three escort ships belonging to the Russian Pacific Fleet were used to carry out the shipment operation. It is noted that this is the first time that the Russian Navy has entered North Korean waters since 1990. (Status-6, 10.18.24)
  • The Kremlin has rejected these reports, describing them as an “information hoax,” according to Euronews. (RM, 10.18.24)
• Ukrainian researchers say they’ve discovered components produced by Western companies in North Korean missiles Russia used to attack the country, highlighting the need to enforce export controls. (Bloomberg, 10.18.24)
• The U.S. and its partners including South Korea and Japan unveiled a new plan to keep an eye on the enforcement of sanctions on North Korea after a Russian veto earlier this year triggered the end of monitoring by a United Nations’ panel. Nations participating in the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team will look to address threats from North Korea’s ballistic missile program and its weapons of mass destruction, according to a statement released Oct. 16. (Bloomberg, 10.16.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russia warns Israel against even a hypothetical possibility of an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, as it would be catastrophic, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told reporters. "We have repeatedly warned and continue to warn and caution [Israel] against even hypothetically considering the possibility of an attack on [Iran's] nuclear facilities and nuclear infrastructure. This would be a catastrophic development and a complete rejection of the existing postulates in the sphere of nuclear security," the senior diplomat said. (TASS, 10.18.24)
• The European Union backed a package of sanctions targeting Iran for providing Russia with ballistic missiles, with measures including restrictions on Iran Air and two procurement firms. A total of 14 individuals and entities were listed. (Bloomberg, 10.14.24)
• Tehran has delivered two Iranian-made satellites to Russia for launch into orbit, according to the Tasnim news agency, which is linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. (RFE/RL, 10.12.24)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• According to an U.N. report, the number of civilian casualties has continued to rise since July in Ukraine, with September having the highest number of deaths and injuries: 1,220. (Ukrainska Pravda, 10.18.24)
• Ukraine's human rights ombudsman has denounced the alleged execution of nine captured Ukrainian troops by Russian forces in the Kursk border region. Dmytro Lubinets said he had written to the United Nations and the Red Cross about the allegations, accusing Moscow of breaching "all the rules and customs of war.” (BBC, 10.13.24)
  • Currently, 102 cases of executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war by the Russians are known, the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine noted. (Korrespondent.net, 10.14.24)
• Russia and Ukraine said Oct. 18 they exchanged the bodies of 590 fallen soldiers in the latest publicly known swap between the two warring countries. Moscow received the remains of 89 soldiers. Kyiv, meanwhile, repatriated 501 bodies. (MT/AFP, 10.18.24)
• Viktoria Roshchina, a Ukrainian journalist who went missing in August 2023 while reporting from territories occupied by Moscow's forces, has died in Russian custody, Ukrainian officials said. (NYT, 10.12.24)
• Pope Francis’ Ukraine peace envoy met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on Oct. 14 in what the Vatican said was a follow-up talk about efforts to bring home children forcibly taken to Russia and prisoner exchanges. (MT/AFP, 10.14.24)
• Ukrainian troops have forcibly taken more than 1,000 residents of southwestern Russia’s Kursk region since launching their incursion in early August, Russia’s presidential human rights commissioner Tatyana Moskalkova said Oct. 14. (MT/AFP, 10.14.24)
• Estonia’s prime minister accused Russia of creating a “deliberate humanitarian crisis” through its systemic destruction of Ukraine’s power grid ahead of the coming winter. (Bloomberg, 10.17.24)

For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• This week, Moscow’s forces broke through, mounting an assault across two points on the canal that acts like a moat to the east of the strategic town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region. Their progress, which might be repelled, may mark a significant move by Russia toward capturing the town. Russian forces now focus on using attack drones to target Chasiv Yar’s entry points, making it harder for Kyiv to resupply and reinforce or to get the injured out, soldiers there say. Along with logistics hub Pokrovsk, the town is key to Moscow’s efforts to seize a line of cities in the Donetsk region that would be much harder to defend if those two towns were taken, according to analysts. They add that the Russians are racing to capture them before the leaves fall—depriving their troops of vital cover—and ahead of the stultifying winter rain and mud. “All it takes is one mistake and Chasiv Yar could fall in days,” said Ukrainian infantry captain Rostyslav Kasyanenko. Kyiv needs to show it can defend towns such as Chasiv Yar to convince both its own people and Western backers that Ukrainian forces are capable of holding strategically important territory and fending off a larger and better-equipped army. (WSJ, 10.18.24)
• On Oct. 12, Russia and Ukraine traded attacks with Russian officials saying Ukrainian drone strikes had killed one person in the Belgorod border region. Russia said it had downed 47 Ukrainian drones overnight, while Ukraine reported it neutralized 24 drones fired by Moscow. (MT/AFP, 10.12.24)
• On Oct. 12, Zelenskyy said Moscow had attempted to push back Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region, but that Kyiv was "holding the line." (MT/AFP, 10.13.24)
• On Oct. 13, Russia said it captured another east Ukrainian village as it closes on the important city of Pokrovsk. Moscow's Defense Ministry said its forces have now taken Mykhailivka, a village at the gates of the town of Selydove, and south of Pokrovsk. (MT/AFP, 10.13.24)
  • The Russians are now six kilometers from Pokrovsk’s eastern outskirts, according to one Ukrainian estimate. The fall of this city in Ukraine’s Donetsk region would leave the Ukrainian military without a key logistics hub for operations in eastern Ukraine, and it could serve as Russia’s gateway to conquering the rest of that region, according to Keith Johnson of FP. Moreover, “Pokrovsk’s fall could have an even more insidious impact on Ukraine’s ability to keep fighting: The city is the source of most of the coal used for the country’s steel and iron industry,” which is the second-largest sector of the Ukrainian economy, according to Johnson. Without Pokrovsk’s mine, “the country’s remaining steel industry will be crippled,” according to The Economist. (RM, 10.16.24)
• On Oct. 14, it was reported that Russia recaptured a few villages in its Kursk region. “In general, the situation in Kursk is not so good,” DeepState said. Ukraine still holds roughly 300 square miles of Russian territory, according to the Black Bird Group, down from about 400 square miles in the first weeks of its cross-border assault in the Kursk region, which was launched in early August. (NYT, 10.14.24)
• On Oct. 14, it was reported that Russia stepped up its assaults on the Black Sea port of Odesa’s infrastructure and civilian shipping in recent days, in what Ukraine says is an attempt to disrupt its exports and damage its economy. A ship called NS Moon was also hit, while the bulk carrier Optima was struck for a second time. (NYT, 10.14.24, Bloomberg, 10.14.24)
• On Oct. 14, Ukraine's defense intelligence agency said it had destroyed a Tu-134 transport aircraft at a military airfield in the Orenburg region, which lies around 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) from the border with Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 10.14.24)
• On Oct. 15, a Russian missile strike killed one woman and wounded 16 others in southern Ukraine's Mykolaiv, where Moscow has recently ramped up air attacks, authorities said. (MT/AFP, 10.15.24)
• On Oct. 16, Russia's Defense Ministry said its forces captured two more villages in different parts of eastern Ukraine. Moscow said its troops captured the village of Krasnyi Yar, which lies around 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) southeast of Pokrovsk. Russia's Defense Ministry said it also captured the village of Nevske, located in the partially occupied Luhansk region. (MT/AFP, 10.16.24)
• On Oct. 18, Russia continued its daily strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, launching "one of the most massive" drone attacks on the country. (RFE/RL, 10.18.24)
• On Oct. 18, authorities in southwestern Russia’s Belgorod region denied reports of Ukrainian troops launching an incursion into a village on the border with Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. (MT/AFP, 10.18.24)
• Zelenskyy said early this month that his country was on pace to produce 1.5 million drones this year, and he wants to ramp up production to four million annually. Putin met with the Russian Military-Industrial Commission in September to highlight efforts to expand drone production. While Russian companies delivered only about 140,000 drones last year, the Russian leader said they increased production tenfold to 1.4 million drones in 2024. (NYT, 10.12.24)
• The Verkhovna Rada decided that men from 25 to 60 years old are subject to mobilization in Ukraine, but Ukraine's Western partners have questions about the mobilization of 18–25-year-olds, said Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. (Korrespondent.net, 10.18.24)
• Russian forces have increased their reliance on illicit Starlink terminals to enhance battlefield coordination, drone use and artillery precision, despite U.S. sanctions. Ukrainian soldiers reported that Russia’s use of Starlink has been a factor in recent military gains. The Pentagon and SpaceX are working to counter this, but challenges remain. (Washington Post, 10.12.24)
• Russia's Ministry of Defense pays between 5-11 million rubles to the families of fallen soldiers, while volunteers earn regional bonuses over 3 million rubles. However, public opinion sees the compensation as insufficient, considering it’s just a third of a lifetime’s average earnings. Regional recruitment has surged, but manpower and resource shortages persist. (bne IntelliNews, 10.12.24)

Military aid to Ukraine:

• Zelenskyy presented a broad description of his five-point "victory plan" to Ukraine's lawmakers on Oct. 16. Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine's Victory Plan is intended to end the war "no later than" 2025. (ISW, 10.16.24, WP, 10.17.24)
  • Zelenskyy described the first step of the plan as an immediate and unconditional invitation to join NATO and the last as an offer to replace U.S. troops in Europe with Ukrainian units after the war—suggestions sure to incense the Kremlin, which has long used the threat of NATO to justify its invasion. (WP, 10.17.24)
  • The second point in the plan, Zelenskyy said, is a permanent strengthening of Ukraine's security through guarantees from partners that their weapons can be used for strikes inside Russia and that Ukraine's neighbors will conduct joint air defense operations to protect Ukraine's skies. It will also allow for continued operations inside sovereign Russian territory to ensure buffer zones that protect Ukraine, he said. (WP, 10.17.24)
  • The third is a nonnuclear deterrence plan, and the fourth guarantees economic security and protection of Ukrainian natural resources that he said will strengthen Ukraine's partners and weaken Russia's economy and "war machine." (WP, 10.17.24)
  • The fourth point provides for Ukraine and its allies to conclude a special agreement on joint protection of critical resources available in Ukraine, joint investment and use of the corresponding economic potential. (Official website of the Ukrainian president, 10.16.24.)
  • “The fifth point is designed for the post-war period... We envisage, if our partners agree, replacing certain military contingents of the United States Armed Forces stationed in Europe with Ukrainian units,” Zelenskyy told Rada leaders. (Official website of the Ukrainian president, 10.16.24.)
• Zelenskyy said that if his Western allies reject his “victory plan,” it will be a gift to Russia and make life “extremely difficult” for Ukraine. Zelenskyy told leaders of the European Union’s 27 member states in Brussels on Oct. 17 that his country desperately needed their support for his plan to end the war, which he maintains could happen no later than next year, but it is unclear how much Ukraine’s allies will embrace it. “You all know Russia’s psychology,” Zelenskyy told EU leaders Oct. 17. “Russia will resort to diplomacy only when it sees that it cannot achieve anything by force.” (NYT, 10.17.24, FT, 10.17.24)
  • On visits to European capitals and the U.S. prior to unveiling the plan, Zelenskyy requested more weapons and security guarantees as part of the plan. The Biden administration, which has drip-fed weapons to Ukraine for fear of provoking Russia, has given a tepid response. U.S. officials have said that Zelenskyy's plan repackages some earlier requests, and noted that NATO members are divided about whether to offer Ukraine a formal invitation to join. (WSJ, 10.14.24)
  • On Oct. 18, Zelenskyy said the U.S. White House team will soon visit Ukraine to provide feedback on his so-called “victory plan” that outlines his vision for ending Russia’s invasion. (Bloomberg, 10.18.24)
  • Germany does not accept perhaps the most important points of the Victory Plan for Ukraine in the war with Russia—the earliest possible invitation to NATO and the supply of long-range weapons. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said this after the EU Council summit in Brussels, Bild reported on Oct. 18. The priority should be to prevent Russia's war against Ukraine from turning into a war between Russia and NATO, he said. (Korrespondent.net, 10.18.24)
  • NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told reporters Oct. 16 that he is "very aware of all elements of the victory plan … and we are in close contact with allies and with Ukraine to see how we can take next steps." NATO defense ministers will discuss Zelenskyy's plan during two days of talks that begin on Oct. 17, Rutte said at a news conference. ''It will no doubt be on the table,'' he said. (NYT, 10.18.24, WP, 10.17.24)
  • Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary said in a video posted on social media on Oct. 17 that Zelenskyy’s plan for ending the war was “more than terrifying” because it involved sending more weapons to Ukraine, rather than focusing on a negotiated end to the war. Zelenskyy’s victory plan is poised to fail, he said. (NYT, 10.17.24, Bloomberg, 10.18.24)
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the plan. He said Kyiv needs to acknowledge that its policy is futile and "sober up and realize the reasons that led to this conflict." Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for Russia's Foreign Ministry, accused Zelenskyy of "pushing NATO into direct conflict with our country." (WP, 10.17.24)
• The White House said Oct. 16 that U.S. President Joe Biden had connected with Zelenskyy in a call, and it gave an update on U.S. efforts to surge more security assistance to Ukraine. A new $425 million package for Ukraine will include air-defense weapons, antiaircraft missiles, artillery rounds, anti-armor weapons, Humvees and more, U.S. officials said in a statement. (WP, 10.17.24)
• NATO allies must "sustain our support ... until Ukraine wins a just and sustainable peace," Biden said Oct. 18 during a farewell visit to Germany. Biden condemned "Putin's vicious attack against Ukraine" and said "NATO remains strong and more united than ever." He added: "We're headed into a very difficult winter. We cannot let up." (AFP, 10.18.24)
• NATO chief Mark Rutte urged member states to produce more weapons and ammunition as he affirmed the alliance is on track to meet a €40 billion ($44 billion) spending target this year for Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 10.16.24)
• U.S. European Command (EUCOM) Commander and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) Gen. Christopher Cavoli reportedly stated that the United States is withholding several U.S. weapon systems and other military communications networks from Ukraine that could support Ukraine's war effort. (ISW, 10.09.24, CNN, 10.08.24)
• U.S. Defense Department officials are worried that the Middle East conflict—and Ukraine, to a lesser extent—will draw resources away from the Pacific region, where the military is trying to shift more of its attention, in the event that China invades Taiwan or a dispute over territory in the South China Sea leads to something bigger. (NYT, 10.18.24)
• A recent decision by the EU to contribute about $440 million to Ukraine's resurgent arms industry marks a significant shift in the bloc's approach to Russia's war against its neighbor but also highlights the EU defense sector's shortcomings in producing weapons and ammunition. The EU contribution will use money taken from the windfall profits of Russian assets that have been frozen in the West. The funding comes on top of about $190 million that the Danish government is providing. (WP, 10.13.24)
• The Danish government is donating 2.4 billion kroner ($350 million) to Ukraine to help bolster the country’s air defense systems and buy new weapons. (Bloomberg, 10.18.24)
• Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof said the Netherlands would provide €271 million ($293 million) for artillery shells. (Bloomberg, 10.17.24)
• The war in Ukraine has a new frontline: a new munitions factory in Queensland, Australia, jointly owned by Germany’s Rheinmetall and a local contractor NIOA, is churning out tens of thousands of artillery shells for Kyiv.  The company, which exports the shells to Germany where they are then filled with explosives by Rheinmetall, plans to increase annual production at the facility by 25% to around 55,000 shells next year. Nioa says it could produce more than 100,000 shells a year with more capital investment. (FT, 10.14.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban once again blocked European Union efforts to tweak its Russia sanctions regime, a step needed to unlock significant U.S. participation in a $50 billion loan to Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 10.17.24)
• The United States on Oct. 17 imposed sanctions on two Chinese companies and an affiliated Russian company involved in making and shipping drones that Russia has used in its full-scale war in Ukraine. The two Chinese companies designated by the U.S. Treasury Department are Xiamen Limbach Aircraft Engine Company and the Redlepus Vector Industry Shenzhen. (RFE/RL, 10.17.24)
• Latvia imposed an indefinite entry ban for pro-Kremlin designer Artemiy Lebedev and comedian Valery Ponomarenko, a month before he was due to perform in the country, (MT/AFP, 10.18.24)
• Foreign companies seeking to leave Russia will be forced to pay a heftier “exit tax” and “voluntary contribution” to the state treasury, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said Oct. 17, confirming earlier reporting of the planned increase. “The discount for foreigners will increase from 50% to 60%,” Siluanov, who heads a government investment commission that approves foreign asset sales, told reporters. One-time contributions to the Russian treasury will go up “immediately from 15% to 25%, plus 5% within a year and 5% the following year, totaling 35%,” Siluanov added. (MT/AFP, 10.17.24)
• Russia’s state media regulator Roskomnadzor said the popular video game platform Steam agreed to remove all banned content from its Russian store, state media reported Oct. 15. (MT/AFP, 10.15.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• "Whether it's Trump or Harris, the Americans will slowly but surely withdraw," a senior Ukrainian official in Kyiv told SPIEGEL in confidence. For the first time since the Russian invasion in February 2022, the Ukrainian capital is seriously discussing scenarios in which the country foregoes the complete reconquest of its occupied territories, almost 20% of Ukrainian territory, for the time being. The official admits that they had a false idea of victory. "We believed that victory must be the unconditional surrender of Putin's Russia." But it cannot be done without concessions. "A deal must also be advantageous for Russia," he says soberly. (Der Spiegel, 10.13.24)
• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Oct. 16 that Berlin wants to explore ways of ending the war in Ukraine, hinting at possible talks with Moscow, but stressing that any efforts to bring a resolution to the conflict would need to happen in cooperation with authorities in Kyiv. "Alongside clear support for Ukraine, it is time for us to do everything we can to explore how we can get to a situation where this war doesn't carry on indefinitely," Scholz told Germany's parliament, saying he was open to talks involving Putin. "When we are asked, 'Will we also speak to the Russian president?' we say, 'Yes, this is the case'," Scholz said. (MT/AFP, 10.16.24)
• Trump leads Harris among swing-state voters, 50% to 39%, on who is best able to handle Russia's war in Ukraine and has a wider advantage, 48% to 33%, on who is better suited to handle the Israel-Hamas war, according to a new WSJ poll of seven battleground states. Trump’s lead on both conflicts appears to be buoyed in part by independents, nearly half of whom said he would better handle the Ukraine-Russia war, compared with about a third who favored Harris. (WSJ, 10.12.24) 

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Zelenskyy tried to drum up support for his "victory plan" at NATO on Oct. 17, but a key part of it, an invitation to join the military alliance, appeared elusive. Zelenskyy is pitching an immediate and unconditional NATO invite as his No. 1 ask in a multi-point plan that he says will put Ukraine in a strong position as it negotiates a just end to the war with Russia. He said Trump had “agreed with my arguments” when the two spoke about a NATO invite, without elaborating on the former U.S. president's views. (WP, 10.17.24)
  • Zelenskyy has said a formal invitation to join NATO is “the only way” Ukraine can survive Russia’s invasion, as the Ukrainian president urged western allies to endorse his plan to end the war. (FT, 10.18.24)
  • Ahead of Zelenskyy's arrival, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith told reporters Oct. 16 that NATO was "not at the point right now where the alliance is talking about issuing an invitation in the short term." (WP, 10.17.24)
  • NATO officials said they did not expect to extend an invitation anytime soon, especially with the United States absorbed in the final weeks of the presidential race and many European leaders watching to see how the outcome may alter the transatlantic relationship. (WP, 10.18.24)
• Russia could be in a position to attack NATO by 2030 and is ramping up efforts to disrupt Ukraine's Western backers through sabotage, German intelligence chiefs said. “In terms of personnel and material, Russian armed forces are likely to be capable of carrying out an attack against NATO by the end of the decade at the latest," BND foreign intelligence chief Bruno Kahl told parliament. A direct confrontation between Moscow and the U.S.-led military alliance was "becoming an option for Russia," Kahl said. Putin is determined to “test the West’s red lines,” he said. The chances of NATO invoking its mutual defense clause at some point are high, Kahl added. (Bloomberg, 10.14.24, MT/AFP, 10.14.24)
• Biden warned that Ukraine faces “a very difficult winter” and urged America’s allies to maintain their support for the government in Kyiv. Speaking on Oct. 18 in Berlin after receiving Germany’s highest honor from President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Biden commended Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his government for pushing back against Russian Putin’s “vicious attack” and for helping Ukraine “fight for freedom, democracy and their very survival.” “We cannot let up, we must sustain our support,” Biden said. (Bloomberg, 10.18.24)
  • While hosting Biden, Scholz praised him: "It is thanks to your leadership that Putin's plan failed. Putin miscalculated, he cannot sit out this war." (handelsblatt, 10.18.24)
  • During his one-day visit to the German capital, Biden will also meet French President Emmanuel Macron and U.K. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to discuss Ukraine and the crisis in the Middle East. (FT, 10.18.24)
• Germany narrowly avoided a plane crash earlier this year after a parcel destined for an aircraft’s hold burst into flames before the flight in a suspected act of sabotage, one of the country’s spy chiefs has said as he warned of a dramatic increase in “aggressive behavior” by Russian agents. (FT, 10.14.24)
  • British counterterrorism police said Oct. 17 they were investigating how a package burst into flames at a shipping warehouse earlier this year after a similar case in Germany was blamed on Russia. The incident occurred at a DHL warehouse near Birmingham on July 22. (MT/AFP, 10.17.24)
• Two Russian men arrested in Poland on espionage charges went on trial Oct. 16 for allegedly distributing leaflets and stickers promoting the Wagner mercenary group, a Polish court said. The pair, identified by Polish counterintelligence as Alexei T. and Andrei G., were detained in August 2023 for distributing leaflets about the Wagner Group in the cities of Warsaw and Krakow. (MT/AFP, 10.16.24)
• Former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal believes Putin ordered his Novichok poisoning, an inquiry into the death of a woman who was unwittingly poisoned by the nerve agent was told on Oct. 14. Skripal and his daughter Yulia were found slumped unconscious after Novichok was applied to the front door handle of his home in March 2018. Four months later, mother-of-three Dawn Sturgess died from exposure to the poison after her partner found a counterfeit perfume bottle which police believe had been used by Russian spies to smuggle the military-grade nerve agent into the country. (Reuters, 10.14.24)
• The Pentagon has confirmed a number of “unauthorized” drone flights last year in restricted airspace over a Virginia base that houses the nation’s most advanced fighter jets. The Wall Street Journal first reported that for 17 days in December, a fleet of the unidentified aircraft flew over Langley Air Force Base as well as over the area that includes the Navy’s SEAL Team Six home base and Naval Station Norfolk, the world’s largest naval port. Some suspected that Russia or China deployed them to test the response of U.S. forces. (The Hill, 10.17.24. WSJ, 10.12.24)
• Russia will reduce its consular staff in Norway following a request from authorities in Oslo, the Russian Embassy said late Oct. 14. In a post on Facebook, the Russian mission in Oslo said that "only two diplomats will remain in the consular section" after a request to cut its staff numbers by Oct. 17. (MT/AFP, 10.15.24)
• The rare visit to Iceland by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., came as U.S. forces have observed a rise in Russian submarine activity in the Atlantic. (WP, 10.14.24)
• The U.K. Defense Secretary has signed a new agreement with Estonia, ensuring thousands of troops are at high readiness to be deployed to NATO’s eastern flank. The U.K. will also sign a new missile defense plan, boosting our security for decades to come. (UKMOD, 10.17.24)
• Switzerland will join a German-led effort aimed at bolstering Europe’s defense against air strikes, as the traditionally neutral country continues to recalibrate its policy after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 10.18.24)
• G-7 defense ministers and the EU's top diplomat will meet for the first time on security and defense issues on Oct. 18-20. (Ukrainska Pravda, 10.18.24)
• Donald Trump has blamed Zelenskyy for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, saying the Ukrainian president “should never have let that war start.” In an interview with podcaster Patrick Bet-David, published on Oct. 17, the Republican candidate for the White House called Zelenskyy “one of the greatest salesmen I’ve ever seen.” “Every time he comes in we give him $100bn,” Trump said. “That doesn’t mean I don’t want to help him because I feel very badly for those people. But he should have never let that war start. That war is a loser,” the former U.S. president added. (FT, 10.17.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• “The United States is 15 years late. They will not be able to stop China's development. It is impossible to do so, just as it is impossible to tell the sun: "Don't rise." It will rise anyway,” Putin told media outlets from BRICS. “In some areas, humanity cannot exist without the BRICS countries. I mean food markets, energy markets, and so on,” Putin told media outlets from BRICS. (Kremlin.ru, 10.18.24)
• Russia uses yuan in settlements both with China and with third countries. This was stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin at a meeting with the heads of the BRICS media. "In our trade with China, 95% is the ruble and yuan. By the way, we also use the yuan in settlements with third countries, which helps strengthen the yuan as an international currency," he told media outlets from BRICS countries. (TASS, 10.18.24)
• The BRICS group of countries is driving global economic growth faster than advanced Western economies, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the group’s business forum on Friday. The five original members of BRICS—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—together with its four newcomers accounted for 37.4% of global GDP compared to 29.3% for G7 countries last year, Putin said. (MT/AFP, 10.18.24)
  • Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi will visit the Russian city of Kazan on Oct. 22–24 to attend the BRICS summit. This was announced by the Foreign Ministries of China and India on Friday, October 18. (Korrespondent.net, 10.18.24)
• Russia and China have “common views, a common assessment of the situation, and a common understanding of what we need to do together,” Russia’s visiting defense chief Andrey Belousov told Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission. Their task is to “strengthen and develop” their strategic partnership, the Russian defense chief added during his first visit to China in this capacity. During Tuesday’s meeting, Zhang repeated rhetoric voiced by Xi and Putin, calling for the two militaries to “deepen and expand military-to-military relations, safeguard their respective national sovereignty, security and development interests, and jointly safeguard international and regional peace and stability,” according to a readout from China’s Defense Ministry. Belousov also held talks a day earlier with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun, who ranks below Zhang in China’s military hierarchy. (CNN, 10.16.24) 

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• On Oct. 17, Zelenskyy said Ukraine had two options to deter further Russian aggression: becoming a nuclear power or joining NATO, which would guarantee protection from the military alliance’s members. The Ukrainian leader said he conveyed that argument to former President Donald Trump in a recent conversation, noting that either Ukraine would need to join NATO or it would develop nuclear weapons. “I believe that Donald Trump heard me,” Zelenskyy said. “He said, ‘You have a fair argument.’ Mr. Zelenskyy later clarified during the news conference with Mr. Rutte that Ukraine was not preparing to build nuclear weapons. (NYT, 10.17.24)
  • German publication BILD, without specifying a source, claims that an unnamed Ukrainian official involved in arms procurement said at a closed meetings that Ukraine would need several weeks to manufacture the first nuclear bomb. At a press conference in Brussels, when asked by a journalist how long it would take Ukraine to create a nuclear bomb, Zelenskyy responded: "Sometimes we create problems for ourselves. Right now, you are doing exactly that." The Ukrainian president stressed that he had never spoken about developing nuclear weapons. (Media Zone, 10.17.24, Kyiv Post, 10.17.24)
  • Putin called Zelenskyy's statement about the possibility of creating nuclear weapons in Ukraine another provocation. He said Russia will not allow the creation of nuclear weapons by Ukraine under any circumstances. (RIA Novosti telegram channel, 10.18.24)
• Strategic stability wasn't on the agenda at the expert meeting of the nuclear P5 at the UN in New York, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told reporters. "We didn't talk about strategic stability at the meeting. I believe China, being the current coordinator of the nuclear P5, is a more appropriate source for relevant assessments," Ryabkov said (TASS, 10.17.24)
• Director General of Rosatom, Alexey Likhachev, told Putin that “the state defense order itself, of course, is growing— sometimes growing tens of times.” (Kremlin.ru, 10.15.24)
• On Oct. 14, NATO began its annual tactical nuclear weapons exercise in Europe. Known as Steadfast Noon, the two-week long exercise involves more than 60 aircraft from 13 countries and more than 2,000 personnel, according to a NATO press release. That is slightly bigger than last year’s exercise that involved “up to 60” aircraft. (FAS, 10.14.24)

Counterterrorism:

• The number of people convicted under terrorist articles (Articles 205–205.6 of the Criminal Code) continues to grow in Russia. In the first half of 2024, 366 people were sentenced under them—this is 11% more than in the same period of the previous year. Most people were held accountable for public calls for terrorism or its justification in the media (205.2, Part 2). 152 people were convicted under this article, which is 15% more than in the first half of 2023. (Istories, 10.18.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• Russian airstrikes on sites including a furniture workshop in northwest Syria killed 10 people and wounded 30 others, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said late Wednesday. (MT/AFP, 10.17.24)

Cyber security/AI: 

• Russian forces have increased their reliance on illicit Starlink terminals to enhance battlefield coordination, drone use, and artillery precision, despite U.S. sanctions. Ukrainian soldiers reported that Russia’s use of Starlink has been a factor in recent military gains. The Pentagon and SpaceX are working to counter this, but challenges remain. (Washington Post, 10.12.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• In 2023, Russia increased the share of its oil exports to two BRICS partners—India and China—to 78% against 32% in 2021, according to the report "BRICS+ Energy: Engine of the New World Order" of the Valdai International Discussion Club, authored by Deputy Head of the National Energy Security Fund Alexey Grivach. (TASS, 10.18.24)
  • Russia's energy resources are "simply unlimited," they can be easily supplied to China, since the countries share a border that is not subject to any fluctuations from the point of view of world politics. This was stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin at a meeting with the heads of the BRICS media. (TASS, 10.18.24)
• Almost two years since an oil “price cap” was enacted, nearly 70% of the Kremlin’s oil is being transported on “shadow tankers” that are evading the restrictions, according to an analysis published by the Kyiv School of Economics Institute. Russia has invested about $10 billion in developing its fleet of shadow tankers, which are often unmarked, allowing it to sell much of its oil above the cap level. According to the Kyiv institute, in the first half of this year more than 75 million barrels of Russian oil every month were transported on ships that are on average 18 years old. A report by Lloyd’s List Intelligence this month found that record volumes of Russian oil products were carried in September on tankers that are part of its shadow fleet or that have already been sanctioned for violating the price cap. (NYT, 10.14.24)
  • Britain has imposed sanctions on 18 more Russian oil tankers and four liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers in what the government said amounted to the largest move against Moscow's "shadow fleet" circumventing restrictive measures by the West following Moscow's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 10.17.24)
• Global demand for oil will grow less than expected this year and next, according to the latest estimates from Opec. The producer cartel said demand would grow by 1.93mn barrels a day in 2024, down 106,000 barrels a day from its previously estimated growth. Total world demand is estimated at 104.14mn barrels a day this year. (FT, 10.14.24)
• The International Energy Agency trimmed its forecast for this year's oil-demand growth for the third month in a row. The Paris-based organization forecasts global demand to grow by 862,000 barrels a day this year from 903,000 barrels a day previously, while growth estimates for next year were raised slightly to 998,00 barrels a day from 954,000 barrels a day. (WSJ, 10.15.24)
• Crude oil prices could go into triple digits if supplies are disrupted by conflict in the Middle East, despite weak market fundamentals, analysts at Citi Research said Monday in a report. Citi said its base case is still for international benchmark Brent to average $74 a barrel in the fourth quarter and $65 a barrel in the first quarter of 2025, "owing to weak underlying oil market fundamentals." (WSJ, 10.15.24)
• France and several other European Union member states are set to call for stricter tracking of Russian liquefied natural gas imports to help phase out reliance on Moscow’s supplies of the fuel. Paris wants more measures to provide information on suppliers as deliveries of Russian LNG to Europe continue to rise despite calls for reductions by the bloc’s leaders. The French government and its allies want to toughen up the transparency provisions under the 14th package of sanctions on Russia, which banned the so-called transshipments of the super-chilled fuel to third countries passing through European ports, according to a draft document seen by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 10.14.24)
• A newly established company in Dubai has taken over three liquefied natural gas tankers, in what appears to be Russia’s latest effort to circumvent Western sanctions. Velikiy Novgorod, Pskov and La Perouse—formerly Russian-managed vessels—have had aspects of their management transferred to a company called Matias Ship Management in September, according to Equasis, a global shipping database. (Bloomberg, 10.18.24)
• European Union Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson warned the region’s gas companies that any potential new deals to keep gas flowing from Russia through Ukraine would be a “dangerous” choice. “ (Bloomberg, 10.15.24)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• JD Vance said: “And then there was the Russia, Russia, Russia cycle where it was, well, the only reason Donald Trump won is because he was collaborating with Vladimir Putin, which, even when I was anti-Trump, I thought that narrative was absurd.” (NYT, 10.12.24)
• Evan Gershkovich, a reporter for The Wall Street Journal who was imprisoned in Russia for more than a year, is writing a memoir about his time in prison, his five years living in Moscow and Russia's slide toward autocracy. (NYT, 10.14.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russian dissident Alexei Navalny believed he would die in prison, according to his posthumous memoir which will be released Oct. 22. The New Yorker published excerpts from the book, featuring writing from Navalny's diary before and after his imprisonment. "I will spend the rest of my life in prison and die here," he wrote on March 22, 2022. "There will not be anybody to say goodbye to… All anniversaries will be celebrated without me. I'll never see my grandchildren." Navalny had been serving a 19-year prison sentence on "extremism" charges in an Arctic penal colony. (MT/AFP, 10.12.24)This quote has been widely published as a prediction Navalny makes about his fate, but it has been taken out of context. The statement “I will spend the rest of my life in prison and die here” is his, but it is part of his explanation for how he survives his captivity by practicing “prison Zen;" immunizing himself against debilitating hope. It is not his prediction of his actual fate.
• From January to June 2024, 40 people were convicted for “fakes” about the army in Russia under Article 207.3 of the Criminal Code, which provides for up to 15 years in prison. Judges sent one of them for compulsory treatment in a psychiatric hospital. Over the entire past year, 65 people were sentenced for so-called fakes. (Istories, 10.18.24)
• Russia's State Duma on October 17 passed a bill in its first reading that would ban "childfree propaganda," marking the latest expansion of the government's efforts to regulate social discourse. (RFE/RL, 10.17.24)
• Two federal lawmakers have denied ordering the assassination of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov after he declared a “blood feud” against them and a senator amid a dispute over the merger of Russia’s largest online retailer Wildberries. Last week, Kadyrov accused State Duma deputies Bekhan Barakhoyev and Rizvan Kurbanov, as well as influential billionaire and Federation Council Senator Suleiman Kerimov, of plotting to kill him. (MT/AFP, 10.16.24)
• Russian imports recovered in the third quarter to last year’s level, buoyed by increased domestic demand even as international sanctions create difficulties for payments, according to the central bank. The value of imported goods in the period reached $76 billion after annual decreases in the preceding three quarters, the Bank of Russia said Thursday in a report on the balance of payments. Imports rose about 9% on the previous quarter. The recovery was fueled by expanded domestic demand coupled with ruble appreciation in the period, as well as an increase in car imports, the central bank said. The Russian currency gained 5% against the dollar compared with the previous year and 2% on the second quarter of 2024, according to the report. (Bloomberg, 10.17.24)
• Russian authorities will no longer try to prevent the ruble from falling past 100 against the U.S. dollar as they expect the low exchange rate will benefit Russia’s state budget amid plans for more wartime spending, Bloomberg reported Tuesday, citing two anonymous sources familiar with the situation. (MT/AFP, 10.15.24)
• President Vladimir Putin signed a decree Tuesday temporarily handing over control of a major canned food maker to the Russian government. In April 2023, Putin authorized the government to seize the Russia-based assets of foreign companies from countries the Kremlin views as “unfriendly,” a move widely seen as retaliation to the West freezing around $300 billion in Russian state assets. Putin’s latest decree orders the seizure of the Glavproduct holding company, several of its subsidiaries and three canning plants. (MT/AFP, 10.15.24)
• Russia’s federal budget revenues in September grew by 19% year on year (+33% y/y over 9M24) to RUB3.3 trillion, out of which oil and gas revenues were up 4% y/y (+49% y/y in 9M24) and non-oil and gas revenues up by 24% y/y (+24% y/y in 9M24). (BNE 10.15.24)
• The Russian government has approved a measure that cuts the quota for residence permits for foreigners in 2025 by almost half even as the number of workers entering the country has fallen to a 10-year low, exacerbating an acute labor shortage. The government said on October 16 that the new quota was set at 5,500 permits, compared with 10,600 in 2023. (RFE/RL, 10.16.24)
  • Russia will deport more than 2,000 undocumented migrants following a recent series of police raids, the Moscow branch of Russia’s Interior Ministry announced Thursday. The weeklong raids in the Russian capital, dubbed “Operation Nelegal 2024,” uncovered more than 13,000 violations of immigration law, according to the ministry’s statement. It said more than 10,000 foreigners were “brought to justice” and more than 2,000 faced “administrative expulsion” and deportation following court orders. (MT/AFP, 10.17.24)
• Russia’s government plans to increase state maternity payments by around $500 next year as the country struggles with a shrinking number of births, Labor Minister Anton Kotyakov said Monday. (MT/AFP, 10.14.24)
• VB Development, a development and construction subsidiary of Russia’s largest e-commerce operator Wildberries, has filed a RUB37bn ($0.4bn) lawsuit against its main beneficiary Vladislav Bakalchuk in the Arbitration Court of the Moscow Region, Vedomosti daily reports. (BNE, 10.15.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• From January to June 2024, Russian courts sentenced six thousand military servicemen. This is more than twice the figure for the first half of last year. At the same time, the number of those convicted of crimes related to military service (desertion, failure to comply with orders, etc.) has increased threefold compared to 2023 and 7.5 times compared to pre-war years. (Istories, 10.18.24)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• In the first six months of 2024, 52 people were convicted of treason in Russia. This is 3.5 times more than in the corresponding period of the previous year. (Istories, 10.18.24)

• Russian fishermen rescued a man who spent nearly 70 days adrift in the Pacific Ocean, law enforcement authorities in Far East Russia said Tuesday, adding that the man’s brother and nephew died at sea. (MT/AFP, 10.15.24)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• President Vladimir Putin offered a clear hint that he won’t go to the Group of 20 in Brazil next month, saying his presence would disrupt the summit after an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court for war crimes. “I understand that even if we exclude the ICC, this will be the only topic of conversation,” Putin said (Bloomberg, 10.18.24)
• Russia is concerned about the consequences for the Middle East after Israel eliminated Yahya Sinwar, the head of the political bureau of the Palestinian Hamas movement, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "The main thing for us is the consequences for the peaceful population that we see," he said when asked how the Kremlin reacted to Israel's action. "We have serious concerns about this," the spokesman emphasized. (TASS, 10.18.24)
• Russia and Qatar call for an immediate cessation of hostilities in the Middle East, the Russian foreign ministry said after a meeting between Russian presidential envoy for the Middle East and African countries and Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and Qatari Ambassador to Moscow Sheikh Ahmed bin Nasser Al-Thani. (TASS, 10.18.24)
• A Moscow court sentenced a French citizen, Laurent Vinatier, to three years in jail for violating a law on so-called foreign agent. Vinatier, a consultant with the Swiss group Center for Humanitarian Dialogue who was working on Eurasian issues, was detained in June. The Investigative Committee said that Vinatier illegally collected information about Russia’s military and military-technical activity and failed to comply with legislation requiring registration as a foreign agent. Vinatier admitted his guilt. (Bloomberg, 10.14.24)
• Scientists fighting the spread of infectious diseases on the African continent have been targeted online by pro-Russian activists, part of an effort to spread fear and mistrust of the West. The scientists sifting through thousands of genetically modified mosquito larvae in a laboratory in Burkina Faso were trying to stop the spread of malaria, one of the biggest killers on the African continent. But in the pro-Russian propaganda telling of their work, the scientists, helped by funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, were not protecting local people against malaria, they were infecting them. (NYT, 10.14.24)
• Six Russian soldiers who sought to escape mobilization for the war in Ukraine have arrived in France after first fleeing to Kazakhstan, according to media reports. (RFE/RL, 10.12.24)
• Russian-born media tycoon Lord Evgeny Lebedev was forced to pledge further funding to help prop up the lossmaking Evening Standard before the move to axe its daily print edition this year, according to accounts filed at Companies House this week. (FT, 10.15.24)
• In the Central African Republic PMW Wagner’s mercenaries are reportedly developing a base intended to host 10,000 troops by 2030 and serve as a hub for Russian military operations in Africa. (The Economist, 10.17.24)

Ukraine:

• U.S. Undersecretary of State Uzra Zeya has arrived in Kyiv for talks with Ukrainian officials, the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv said on October 18 on X, adding that the visit is meant "to reaffirm the commitment of the U.S. to support Ukraine against a full-scale invasion of Russia," the embassy said on X. Separately, the U.S. State Department said in a statement that Zeya will emphasize continued partnership on anti-corruption and rule of law reforms, a strong civil society and independent media, and advancing victim- and survivor-centered justice and accountability for Ukrainians." From Ukraine, Zeya will depart for Poland and the United Kingdom, the statement added. (RFE/RL, 10.18.24)
• Zelenskyy was left seething after a meeting last month with Poland’s top diplomat, who made a show of putting the brakes on Ukraine’s ambitions for fast-track accession to the European Union. During their exchange in Kyiv, Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski also brought up Warsaw’s demands that the victims of World War II-era massacres of ethnic Poles be exhumed from land now belonging to Ukraine—and tied it to EU membership talks, according to participants. (Bloomberg, 10.14.24)
• Political rivalries have disrupted other Ukrainian institutions this year, undermining the smooth functioning of Parliament and causing upheaval in the country’s military command. Now, political infighting, highlighted by the dismissal of head of the national electricity company, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, is hampering Ukraine’s efforts to avert an energy crisis, according to more than half a dozen current and former Ukrainian energy officials, experts and lawmakers. (NYT, 10.15.24)
• A group of investors in Ukraine’s GDP warrants has hired PJT Partners Inc. as their financial adviser ahead of a potential restructuring, according to people familiar with the matter. The investors include funds such as Aurelius Capital Management LP and VR Capital Group and are also being advised by Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP, Bloomberg reported earlier. The group owns over a quarter of the $2.6 billion warrants issued and was formed in response to Ukraine’s decision this year to stop servicing the warrants starting from May 2025. (Bloomberg, 10.14.24)
• Veon Ltd., the wireless operator that owns Ukraine’s largest mobile company Kyivstar, said it’s planning to move its headquarters from Amsterdam to Dubai. (Bloomberg, 10.14.24)
• There are between 100,000 and 200,000 U.S. citizens of Ukrainian descent in Pennsylvania, a key swing state that Joe Biden won in 2020 by about 81,000 votes. As of yet, perhaps surprisingly, neither presidential campaign has succeeded in winning their outright support. (WP, 10.15.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Georgia’s president has accused the ruling party of deploying Kremlin-inspired intimidation tactics to rig upcoming elections and urged voters to choose between the EU and Russia. Salome Zourabichvili told the Financial Times her country was being ruled by “a Russian government.” In power since 2012, the Georgian Dream party was waging a campaign based on propaganda, polarization and fear tactics—just like in Russia, she said. “This is anything but a normal election,” the president said, but rather “a choice between a European future and a Russian past.” (FT, 10.17.24)
• A peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan could be inked before Baku hosts the UN’s COP29 climate conference next month, according to the Armenian president. Negotiations to end the decades-long conflict between the two countries have been tense, particularly after Azerbaijan last year seized the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh in a brief but deadly military offensive that prompted an exodus of 100,000 ethnic Armenians. Armenia’s President Vahagn Khachaturyan told the Financial Times that while there were outstanding issues that still needed to be agreed, “we are approaching the end” of the discussions, adding that a deal could be signed before the UN climate conference in November. (FT, 10.14.24)
• The European Union sanctioned top officials of Moldova’s autonomous region of Gagauzia for attempting to undermine the country’s sovereignty, days before presidential elections and a referendum on EU membership. (Bloomberg, 10.14.24)
• Moldova’s chief negotiator in talks to join the European Union, Deputy Prime Minister Cristina Gherasimov, said Russia has pumped about €100 million ($108 million) into an effort to thwart a crucial election Sunday. (Bloomberg, 10.18.24)
• Moldovan authorities say they have exposed a network of more than 100 people trained in Russia and the Balkans to provoke post-election unrest in the southeastern European country and have arrested several suspects. (RFE/RL, 10.17.24)
• The Kremlin said Monday it “categorically rejects” accusations from authorities in Moldova that it is interfering in the country’s upcoming presidential election and a referendum on joining the European Union. (MT/AFP, 10.14.24)
• Moldova's wineries are embracing renewable energy amid rising tensions with Russia, reducing reliance on Russian gas. Brands like Purcari and Cricova have installed solar panels and increased sustainability efforts, aligning with Moldova's EU membership ambitions. The shift follows Russia's wine embargoes in the 2010s. (FT, 10.12.24)
• Umed Bobozoda, Tajikistan's human rights commissioner, voiced serious concerns over the mistreatment of Tajik migrants in Russia. In a letter to his Russian counterpart, Tatyana Moskalkova, Bobozoda accused Russian law enforcement of using illegal methods, including physical abuse and unjustified detentions, particularly since a deadly terrorist attack at the Crocus City Hall near Moscow in March. Since the attack, in which several Tajik nationals were implicated, around 20,000 Tajiks have been deported, and many others have faced harsh treatment in Russia. (RFE/RL, 10.14.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Western states are tiring in their support for Ukraine and increasingly hoping for some form of conflict resolution, Finland’s foreign minister has warned, as she urged her colleagues in western states to redouble their efforts to help Kyiv. “It’s real,” Elina Valtonen said of western fatigue. “And increasingly so.” (FT, 10.15.24) 

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Press Service Of The President Of Ukraine via AP.