4 Things to Know

1. “We’re going to work very hard on Russia and Ukraine. It’s got to stop,” President-elect Donald Trump said during a gala for the America First Policy Institute on Nov. 14. As part of his effort to stop the hostilities, Trump is expected to soon appoint a Ukrainian peace envoy, according to Fox News. Meanwhile, some of Ukraine's European allies are increasingly looking to lay the foundation for peace talks, which they envision including trade-offs such as land for Ukraine's security, WP reported. That Kyiv may consider such a trade-off, which Trump’s camp is eyeing, too, follows from NYT citing two senior Ukrainian officials as saying that defending Ukraine’s interests in potential talks would hinge not on territorial boundaries, but on what security “guarantees” would be in place for their country to make a cease-fire hold. Russia could accept such a ceasefire, but only if Ukrainians are driven from Kursk, Konstantin Zatulin, a prominent member of Vladimir Putin’s political party, told NYT. As for Putin himself, he told German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in their first phone call in two years that “possible agreements must… be based on new territorial realities and most importantly, eliminate the root causes of the conflict,” according to the Kremlin’s readout of the Nov. 15 conversation.
2. Key appointments that Trump has announced for his upcoming administration include some dark horses, but most of those picked for top jobs in the defense/national security and foreign policy establishments, which would lead the implementation of Trump’s policies toward Russia/post-Soviet Eurasia if confirmed, are known quantities who have already held federal offices. Among them is Sen. Marco Rubio,¹ who, while never missing a chance to co-sponsor punitive measures against Russia over its aggression in Ukraine, has concluded that a negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine is the realistic way to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. Trump’s picks for top jobs in the aforementioned establishments  also include John Ratcliffe, whom Trump wants to serve as the director of the CIA and who has recently bashed Joe Biden’s policy on the war in Ukraine as “Ukraine first, Ohio last.” They also include former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, whom Trump wants to serve as his Director of National Intelligence, even though she has been criticized as a Putinversteher. Other Trump picks include Rep. Elise Stefanik, who is to be nominated for the post of U.N. ambassador and who, upon her selection by Trump, has reportedly distanced herself from her previous support for Ukraine’s NATO membership. Trump would also like Rep. Mike Waltz—who has suggested the U.S. would have leverage over Putin in any potential negotiations by enforcing energy sanctions and ramping up U.S. energy exports—to serve as his national security adviser. As stated above, Trump’s picks also include either individuals with no experience in federal government or who have been harshly criticized for their alleged misconduct. The former include Fox News commentator Pete Hegseth, whom Trump has tapped for defense secretary and who believes Putin would use a ceasefire with Ukraine to reload and pick new targets.
3. In the past month, Russian forces made a net gain of 206 square miles in Ukraine, according RM editor Ivan Arreguín-Toft’s Nov. 15, 2024, estimate based on data provided by the Institute for the Study of War. Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState, which like ISW tracks changes in territorial control, estimates that Russia has captured more than 1,200 square kilometers in Ukraine since August. That is double what Kyiv’s troops currently hold in the Kursk region of Russia, according to data prepared by DeepState and reported by FT.² Russia is currently advancing at its fastest rate since 2022, according to Reuters. As for the next few weeks, the Kyiv-based Center for Defense Strategies estimates that by December, “the front line will probably shift 30–35 kilometers west of its current position,” according to FT, thus anticipating another retreat by Ukrainian forces. 
4. A Biden administration push to send billions of dollars of military equipment to Ukraine before Biden leaves office is facing major logistical hurdles and is raising concern that the transfers will deplete already-stretched U.S. stockpiles, American officials told WSJ. More than $7 billion in drawdown authority allowing the Pentagon to transfer weapons and munitions to Ukraine from its stocks remains unspent, along with over $2 billion to fund long-term equipment contracts for Kyiv, this newspaper reported.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Russia's Foreign Ministry on Nov. 14 warned that it can expel International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors from the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant if it finds their work "inappropriate." The statement comes a day after the agency's director, Rafael Grossi, told the German news agency DPA that IAEA monitors would remain at the Zaporizhzhia plant until the war is "frozen." (Kyiv Independent, 11.15.24)
• Over the past three decades, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have sought to clean up abandoned Soviet-era uranium-mining sites with the help of international aid and experts. Rosatom, Russia’s state-owned nuclear-power company, has led some of these efforts; others, including those in Mailuu-Suu, have been funded by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). In 2023, engineers from G.E.O.S., a German sub-contractor, discovered that the dams preventing two of the tailings ponds from leaking waste into the Mailuu-Suu river were structurally unsound. Scientists now believe that an earthquake above 5.0 in magnitude or a major mudslide – common enough occurrences in this area – might cause these unstable dams to collapse entirely, flooding the river with nearly 1 million cubic meters of radioactive waste, which would then flow into the fertile Fergana valley in neighboring Uzbekistan—contaminating the crops and water supply of at least 16 million people. (The Economist, 11.15.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• On Nov. 12, North Korean soldiers were reported to have begun fighting against Ukraine alongside their Russian allies, the U.S. State Department said. “Today I can confirm that over 10,000 DPRK soldiers have been sent to eastern Russia, and most of them have moved to the far western Kursk Oblast, where they have begun engaging in combat operations with Russian forces,” State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said. (Bloomberg, 11.12.24)
  • A Ukrainian official said the North Korean forces had been divided into two groups, an assault unit and a support unit, which will help provide security inside the territory recaptured from Ukrainian forces. (NYT, 11.10.24)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed off on a landmark defense pact with North Korea, a deal that comes amid reports that Pyongyang has dispatched thousands of troops to fight against Ukraine. The deal obligates both states to provide military assistance "without delay" in the case of an attack on the other. Then North Korea ratified the treaty. The agreement will enter force when the two allies formally exchange ratification documents. (Meduza, 11.12.24, MT/AFP , 11.10.24)
• Donald Trump’s election victory is prompting South Korea to rethink the possibility of sending weapons directly to Ukraine, a decision that could have a big impact on the direction of the war. President Yoon Suk Yeol’s government now has to consider the U.S. president-elect’s stance as it looks at whether to change its long-standing policy of not sending lethal aid to Kyiv, according to an official. (Bloomberg, 11.14.24)
• The DPRK has begun to supply Russia with its Koksan artillery units. (Istories 11.15.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• In a rare interview last week, Iran's ambassador in Armenia, Mehdi Sobhani, acknowledged the diverging interests of Russia and Iran in the region, rather than the ''strategic partnership'' they often profess, banding together against the United States. ''We are not allies,'' Sobhani said. “We have some differences, and we have some mutual interests. It doesn’t mean that we are allied.” (NYT, 11.14.24) The statement by the Iranian diplomat contrasts the views on the nature of the Russian-Iranian leadership professed recently by the heads of these two states. First, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on July 12, 2024, that “Russia is a valued strategic ally.” Then, Putin stated twice at an event on Oct. 18, 2024, that Russia has “allied relations” with Iran. So maybe the ambassador didn't get the memo from Teheran and there will be some references to alliance in the new “Interstate treaty on comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and Iran” that Putin and Pezeshkian keep saying they will sign in the near future.  Or, maybe, Sobhani’s statement was meant to describe relations between Russia and Iran only in the region where he is an ambassador, the south Caucasus. If so, the disagreements between Moscow and Teheran over whether Azerbaijan should be awarded a corridor through Armenia to connect Baku with Nakhichevan is one (though not the most important) of multiple reasons behind Sobhani’s characterization of the bilateral relationship.³*
• Iran and Russia have officially connected their interbank networks, enabling the use of Iranian banking cards in Russia’s ATM network, the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) website reported Nov. 11. This significant step aims to simplify financial transactions for Iranian and Russian travelers. (MT/AFP, 11.11.24)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• More than 300 Ukrainians have already received payments under the interim reparations project for war-related sexual violence. The largest number of applications came from the Kherson region. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.14.24)
• The cost of restoring damaged infrastructure in Russia’s Kursk region after attacks by the Ukrainian army is expected to top 700 billion rubles (over $7 billion), according to Gov. Alexey Smirnov, Interfax reports. (Meduza, 11.11.24)
  • Residents displaced by fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces in Russia’s Kursk region have grown increasingly vocal about government failures to ensure their safety and provide promised compensation for destroyed property, with a group of people from one village near the ongoing clashes calling on Putin to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 11.14.24)
• About 23 Russians were taken by the Ukrainian military to the Sumy region from Russia’s Kursk region, reported Tatiana Moskalkova, Commissioner for Human Rights in the Russian Federation, at the All-Russian Coordination Council of Commissioners for Human Rights, according to RIA Novosti. (Istories, 11.15.24)
• Trump has vowed to end a program that allows thousands of people from troubled nations to stay in the United States. “Absolutely I’d revoke it,” Trump said in an interview last month, adding that he would send the immigrants back to their country. Immigrants from some countries, including El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua, have been eligible for the protection for more than two decades. Other countries, including Ethiopia, Lebanon and Ukraine, were added more recently. (NYT, 11.15.24)
• The total cost of reconstructing Ukraine is estimated at $486 billion, according to a joint study by the World Bank, U.N., EU and Ukrainian government. (AFP/Barrons, 11.14.24)
• Since the beginning of the full-scale war, the Ukrainian government has attracted more than $100 billion in external financing, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said at a meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers on Nov. 15. (Korrespondent.net, 11.15.24)
• For a WSJ report on how Ukraine is scavenging for power-plant parts as mass blackouts loom, click here. For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Change in control of Ukrainian territory
  • Since Feb. 24, 2022:
    • Russia made a net gain of 43,127 square miles. 
  • In past month (October 2024):
    • Russia made a net gain of 206 square miles.  
  • In past week:  
    • Russia made a net gain of 53 square miles.⁴
  • Since August, Russia has captured more than 1,200 sq km in Ukraine, according to DeepState, a Ukrainian war tracking group closely tied to the defense ministry. That is double what Kyiv’s troops currently hold in the Kursk region, DeepState data shows. (FT, 11.13.24)
  • Russia is advancing at its fastest rate since 2022 despite taking heavy losses, and Ukraine said last week it had clashed with some of an estimated 11,000 North Korean troops deployed to Russia's Kursk region. (Reuters, 11.11.24)⁵
  • For now, Ukraine is losing ground as quickly as at almost any time since the first days of the invasion. Russia has honed an effective if costly tactic of grinding forward through small infantry assaults, trading personnel for land. With too few soldiers, Ukraine has resorted to shuffling troops between hot spots on the front to prevent a collapse of the lines. (NYT, 11.14.24)
  • The Center for Defense Strategies (CDS), a Kyiv-based security think-tank, estimated that by December, “the front line will probably shift 30-35 km west of its current position.” (FT, 11.13.24)
• On Nov. 8, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces occupied Illinka and advanced in Dalne, near Novodonetske, Trudove and Kupyansk. (RM, 11.15.24)
• On Nov. 9, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces advanced in Kurakhove, Hryhorivka, near Maksymilianivka, Pobeda, Novooleksiyivka and Bohoyavlenka. (RM, 11.15.24)
• On Nov. 9, Ukraine's top military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said that Ukraine faced increasing difficulties in its fight against Moscow's invasion as Russian forces advance and North Korean troops prepare to join the Kremlin's campaign. Syrskyi, relating comments he made to a top U.S. general, said outnumbered Ukrainian forces faced Russian attacks in key sectors of the more than 2-1/2-year-old war with Russia. (Reuters, 11.09.24)
• On the night of Nov. 9-10, Russia fired 145 drones at Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said—more than in any single night-time attack of the conflict so far, and urged Kyiv's Western allies to do more to help Ukraine's defense. (MT/AFP , 11.10.24)
• On Nov. 10, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces advanced in Toretsk, near Antonivka, Selydove and Bohoyavlenka. (RM, 11.15.24)
• On Nov. 10, street battles were reported to have started in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kurakhove. Ukrainian Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi called the situation in the areas surrounding Kurakhove and Pokrovsk “challenging” and “trending toward escalation.” (Bloomberg, 11.10.24)
  • Kurakhove is a crucial logistical hub in the southern Donetsk region. Seeking to encircle the city, whose pre-war population of about 18,000 has dwindled to several hundred, Putin’s troops have advanced near villages several miles to the south and east, according to DeepState. (Bloomberg, 11.11.24)
• On Nov. 10, Ukraine launched dozens of drones targeting Moscow, forcing the temporary closure of three of the capital's airports, Russian officials said. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said Russia had downed 32 Ukrainian drones targeting Moscow. (RFE/RL,11.10.24)
• On Nov. 11, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces advanced in Pershotravneve, Nelipivka, near Daryino, Petrivka, Yuriyivka, Novooleksiyivka, Dalne, Makarivka, Rivnopil and Novodarivka. (RM, 11.25.24)
• On Nov. 11, in the southern city of Mikolayiv, at least five people were killed In a Russian strike on a residential building, regional Gov. Vitaliy Kim said. (RFE/RL, 11.11.24)
• On Nov. 12, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces advanced near Kolisnykivka, Lyman Pershyi, Synkivka, Pustynka, Novodarivka, Dalne, Kurakhove, Novoselidivka, Illinka and Yuriyivka. (RM, 11.25.24)
• On Nov. 12, Ukrainian authorities said that the death toll from a Russian strike on the hometown of Zelenskyy, Kryivoy Rog, rose to four people, identifying the dead as a mother and her three children, including a newborn. (MT/AFP, 11.12.24)
• On Nov. 13, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces occupied Illinka and advanced in Dalne, near Novodonetske, Trudove and Kupyansk. On Nov. 13 Russian forces were also reported to have recently advanced near Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, while Ukrainian forces recently regained positions near Chasiv Yar. (ISW, 11.13.24, RM, 11.25.24)
• On Nov. 13, Russia ramped up its deep strikes into Ukraine launching a combined assault of drones and missiles on the capital for the first time in over 70 days. The attack ended a two-month pause in missile strikes on Kyiv, which had only been hit by Russian drones during that period. Kremlin forces launched ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as about 90 drones. Ukraine’s air force said it intercepted four missiles and downed 37 drones launched by Russia across eight regions overnight and into Nov. 13 morning. (MT/AFP, 11.13.24, NYT, 11.13.24, Bloomberg, 11.13.24)
• On Nov. 13, Russian forces briefly entered the town of Kupiansk in Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv region, in a break into Kyiv’s frontline defenses. Ukraine’s general staff said the Russian attack was repelled. But Russia’s quick advance through the two-year-old defensive line shows that Ukraine’s frontline is now faltering in multiple directions. (FT, 11.14.24, RFE/RL, 11.14.24)
  • Ukraine's General Staff reported that Russian assault troops, dressed in uniforms intended to resemble Ukraine's, attacked Ukrainian positions in the direction of Kupyansk with tanks and other armored vehicles. (WP, 11.15.24)
  • DeepState wrote in its Telegram channel. “Why did this situation arise? In recent months, the line of contact has become a mystery for all units. The combat formations of the Armed Forces and the enemy were simply scattered in the forest, rotations of both sides were underway.” (RM, 11.15.24)
• On Nov. 14, a new Russian offensive appeared to be nearly underway in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region what would represent a major escalation along the 600-mile-long front. Roman, 22, a battalion commander in Ukraine's 31st Brigade stationed directly south of the city of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region, said Russia is launching an assault from so many directions because Putin knows negotiations could be coming and "he will have much more leverage having control over all this territory as a result." (WP, 11.14.24)
• On the night of Nov. 14, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 59 Shahed-type strike UAVs and drones of an unknown type. The Ukrainian Air Defense Forces have managed to shoot down 21 UAVs. (RBC.ua, 11.14.24)
• On Nov. 14 a Russian air attack struck a residential building and energy installations in Ukraine's Black Sea port of Odesa, killing one person, injuring 10 and leaving 40,000 people without heating. (RFE/RL, 11.15.24)
• On Nov. 15, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian forces occupied Rivnopil and advanced near Plekhove, Nova Illinka, Novodmytrivka, Petrivka, Antonivka, Voznesenka and Novoselydivka. (RM, 11.15.24)
• Putin has deployed 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops in an attempt to recapture Kursk from Ukraine before Trump takes office as U.S. president in January. Ukraine’s top military commander Syrskyi said “tens of thousands of enemy soldiers” had arrived to expel Kyiv’s forces from the Russian enclave, fueling Western fears of a significant escalation of the war. (Telegraph, 11.12.24)
• Russian troops recently suffered their worst month for casualties since the country's war with Ukraine began almost three years ago, the head of Britain's armed forces said Nov. 10. Russian forces suffered an average of around 1,500 dead and injured per day in Ukraine during October, according to U.K. Adm. Sir Tony Radakin. "Russia is about to suffer 700,000 people killed or wounded - the enormous pain and suffering that the Russian nation is having to bear because of Putin's ambition," Radakin said. The cost of the war, which he put at more than 40% of public expenditure on defense and security, is also "an enormous drain" on Russia. (AP/Bloomberg, 11.10.24, MT/AFP , 11.10.24)
• Ukraine is planning to draft an additional 160,000 troops between November and February, which the National Security and Defense Council believes will replenish military units to only about 85 % of what was needed. (FT, 11.13.24)
• Russia's FSB said Nov. 11 that it foiled a Ukrainian attempt to divert a military helicopter by recruiting its pilot. (MT/AFP, 11.11.24)
• A source close to a Spanish investigation gave 60 Minutes photos of men whom they say were identified by Spanish authorities as "persons of interest" who were in Spain at the time of the murder of former Russian military helicopter pilot Maxim Kuzminov – who defected to Ukraine. 60 Minutes has learned that one of the men is a Russian former KGB officer Sergei Goremyka  and another, his relative Sergei Goremyka, is a Russian police colonel. It's yet another piece of evidence that the Russian government may be involved. (Cbsnews.com, 11.11.24, Istories, 11.12.24) 
• Russia lost more than 500 servicemen in the battles for the border village of Zhuravlevka in the Belgorod region, on the territory of which the Ukrainian military was located from Aug. 20 to Nov. 1. This was reported by the Telegram channel "Pepel," citing the words of an unnamed Russian soldier and the footage of the battles obtained. (Istories, 11.13.24)
• Foreign Policy, citing OSINT analysts, reported that Russia has been losing around 320 tank and artillery cannon barrels per month but can only produce 20 per month. (ISW, 11.14.24)
• A source in the Security Service of Ukraine has told RFE/RL that Kyiv orchestrated an attack that killed a Russian Navy officer in Crimea. Capt. Valery Trankovsky died in a car bombing incident in the city of Sevastopol on Ukraine's Russia-annexed peninsula. (RFE/RL, 11.13.24)
• Ukrainian authorities announced Nov. 15 the arrest of an army officer accused of leaking classified information about military operations to Russia. The SBU security service said the man, a lieutenant colonel, had been recruited by Russia before its 2022 invasion and was "activated" this year to disclose plans for Ukrainian Defense Forces' operations behind enemy lines. (MT/AFP, 11.15.24)
• A Russian military court sentenced on Nov. 14 a man to 24 years in prison for the attempted arson of a military recruitment office, state media reported. (MT/AFP, 11.14.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• U.S. President Joe Biden reinforced to Donald Trump during their White House meeting his view that the U.S. standing with Ukraine on an “ongoing basis” in its war with Russia was in America’s national security interests. Briefing reporters about the roughly two-hour meeting, U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden made the case that “a stable Europe . . . is vital to ensuring that we don’t end up getting . . . directly into a war” and that the funds Congress has allocated for Ukraine are “dollars we’re investing here in the United States in American jobs producing American weapons.” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the duration of the meeting “tells you that they had an in-depth conversation on an array of issues” and it was “very gracious and substantiate.” Trump “came with a detailed set of questions,” Jean-Pierre said. (FT, 11.14.24)
  • Trump told The Post Nov. 13 that he and Biden “both really enjoyed seeing each other” when they sat down for a historic post-election get-together in the Oval Office. The president-elect added that he and Biden did discuss two issues on which they have differed in the past: the war in Ukraine, which Trump has promised to end almost immediately upon taking office; and the ongoing war in the Middle East. (NYPost, 11.14.24)
  • Preliminary planning is underway for a meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump amid concerns over future U.S. support, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Nov. 10. (Bloomberg, 11.10.24)
• A Biden administration push to send billions of dollars of military equipment to Ukraine before it leaves office is facing major logistical hurdles and is raising concern that the transfers will deplete already-stretched U.S. stockpiles, officials said. More than $7 billion in drawdown authority allowing the Pentagon to transfer weapons and munitions to Ukraine from its stocks remains unspent, along with over $2 billion to fund long-term equipment contracts for Kyiv. (WSJ, 11.09.24)
• The Biden administration is committed to ensuring “every dollar we have at our disposal” is pushed out to Ukraine before Trump takes office, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Nov. 13. Blinken met a slew of European security officials in Brussels to prepare a strategy of support for Kyiv before Trump enters the Oval Office, and has assured Ukraine that U.S. support be beefed up ahead of the inauguration early next year. (WP, 11.14.24, Bloomberg, 11.13.24, RFE/RL, 11.13.24)
•  “President Biden will have the opportunity over the next 70 days to make case to the Congress and to the incoming administration that the United States should not walk away from Ukraine,” Sullivan said. (Bloomberg, 11.11.24)
• Europe is making a last-ditch appeal to the outgoing Biden administration to boost American support for Ukraine. European leaders and officials have asked the U.S. to provide Ukraine with more weapons and artillery, impose additional sanctions on key Russian revenue streams and target Moscow’s ability to acquire banned technologies used in weapons, according to people familiar with the matter. Many of the European requests have been informal in nature, the people said. (Bloomberg, 11.14.24)
• U.K. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron pledged their “unwavering” support for Ukraine as the two leaders met in Paris days after a second Trump administration was elected in the U.S. They “reaffirmed their commitment to coordinate closely, stressing their determination to support Ukraine unwaveringly and for as long as necessary to thwart Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine,” the Elysée said in a statement on Nov. 11. (FT, 11.11.24)
• EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has said the bloc is on its way to belatedly fulfill a pledge to supply Ukraine with 1 million artillery shells. Borrell, who is in Kyiv, told the European Pravda news outlet on Nov. 11 that so far, the EU had delivered 980,000 shells to Kyiv. (RFE/RL, 11.11.24)
• In 2022, donations to a charity run by Ukrainian TV celebrity Serhiy Prytula were so abundant that it could buy a satellite for the defense ministry. But this year he sees the opposite trend: Ukrainians have become thriftier in financing the military effort, reflecting rising economic challenges and war fatigue. (Bloomberg, 11.13.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Russia, the world's largest supplier of enriched uranium, said ] Nov. 15 that it had imposed temporary restrictions on the export of enriched uranium to the United States, a symbolic tit-for-tat move after the United States banned Russian uranium imports. Russia holds about 44% of the world's uranium-enrichment capacity and about 35% of U.S. nuclear fuel imports used to come from Russia, according to the U.S. Office of Nuclear Energy.  (RFE/RL, 11.15.24)
• The nominee for the European Union’s top foreign policy post said the bloc should tap some $300 billion in frozen Russian assets directly to fund the rebuilding of war-battered Ukraine. Kaja Kallas, the former Estonian prime minister appointed to become the EU’s high representative, said member states should set aside qualms about direct asset seizures, citing Kyiv’s “legitimate claim” to the funds after being attacked by Russia. (Bloomberg, 11.12.24)
• Putin signed a decree on Nov. 11 allowing five additional companies to independently decide how much corporate information to disclose publicly. The policy applies to the natural gas company Novatek and its Arctic LNG 2 and Yamal LNG projects as well as the oil company Surgutneftegas and the submarine and submersible company Lazurit Central Design Bureau. (Meduza, 11.12.24)
• The U.K. military and police have used drones made by a Chinese company that has been sanctioned by the British government for arming Russia in its war against Ukraine. Autel Robotics Co., a global manufacturer of commercial drones based in Shenzhen, China, was sanctioned by the U.K. last week. (Bloomberg, 11.15.24)
• A Russian court ordered the arrest in absentia of International Criminal Court (ICC) Judge Haykel Ben Mahfoudh, who himself earlier issued arrest warrants for Russian military leaders, independent news website Mediazona reported Nov. 11. (MT/AFP, 11.11.24)
• Citigroup Inc. is being investigated by U.S. government agencies over its ties to a sanctioned Russian official, according to a person familiar with the matter. The probe, by the Department of Justice, the FBI and the IRS, centers on Citigroup’s work for Heritage Trust, which holds assets owned by Suleiman Abusaidovich Kerimov. (Bloomberg, 11.14.24)
• The Russian billionaires who owned the Helsinki Halli indoor arena in Finland have agreed to sell their shares in the facility’s managing company, reports Helsingin Sanomat. The owners included Gennady Timchenko and three members of the Rotenberg family. The stadium’s buyer is the investment company Trevian. (Meduza, 11.14.24)
• Apple users registered in Russia suddenly cannot access certain podcasts produced by independent journalists at The Insider, Echo of Moscow and BBC Russian. On Nov. 14, Mediazona reported that Russian Apple users can now play the affected podcasts only if they previously downloaded and listened to its episodes. Russian users who never listened to the affected shows can no longer find them in Apple Podcasts search results. (Istories, 11.15.24)
• U.S. technology giant Apple has notified RFE/RL that it has removed several of its apps following a request from Russia's media regulator, Roskomnadzor. (RFE/RL, 11.15.24)
• Russians’ YouTube access was miraculously restored on Nov. 14, a day after Putin reportedly promised filmmaker Karen Shakhnazarov that he would “look into” reports of throttled download speeds on the streaming service. (Meduza, 11.15.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• “We’re going to work on the Middle East, and we’re going to work very hard on Russia and Ukraine. It’s got to stop,” Trump said during a gala for the America First Policy Institute held at his Mar-a-Lago estate on Nov. 14. This was his first major speech and public appearance after his victory in the Nov. 5 presidential elections. “Russia and Ukraine’s got to stop. I saw a report today. Thousands of people over the last three days were killed. Thousands and thousands of people were killed. They happened to be soldiers, but whether they’re soldiers or they’re people sitting in towns, we’re going to work it,” he said. (CNN, 11.14.24, The Economic Times, 11.15.24)
• Trump is expected to soon appoint a Ukrainian peace envoy to lead negotiations on ending the war with Russia, multiple sources told Fox News Digital. (Fox News, 11.14.24)
• "When Zelenskyy says we will only stop this fighting, there will only be peace once Crimea is returned, we've got news for President Zelenskyy: Crimea is gone," Bryan Lanza, a Republican party strategist, told the BBC. "And if that is your priority of getting Crimea back and having American soldiers fight to get Crimea back, you're on your own." He said the U.S. priority was "peace and to stop the killing." "What we're going to say to Ukraine is, you know what you see? What do you see as a realistic vision for peace. It's not a vision for winning, but it's a vision for peace. And let's start having the honest conversation," he said. (BBC, 11.09.24)
  • Ukraine has been building on its “victory plan” for the incoming Trump administration, highlighting potential business deals, access to raw materials and troop deployments in an effort to sway him, according to FT. One idea this plan includes is to replace some U.S. troops stationed in Europe with Ukrainian forces after the war. Another idea is to share Ukraine’s critical natural resources with Western partners, according to FT. In addition, Kyiv is looking to “appease the Trump camp” by replacing its ambassador to Washington, Oksana Markarova, according to FT. (FT, 11.12.24)
• Interviews with 10 current and former European and NATO diplomats suggest that while declarations of enduring support persist, some of Ukraine's allies are increasingly looking to lay the foundations for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, even as the parameters of a deal remain elusive. European and NATO officials acknowledge that talk of territorial concessions no longer raises as many eyebrows as it once did, and diplomats frame it not as "land-for-peace" but rather as land for Ukraine's security. Discussions have centered on the prospect of a cease-fire along a demarcation line in return for Western security assurances - a de facto, at least temporary concession of existing areas of control even without formal recognition. Yet European policymakers are far from agreeing on what any security guarantees might be, with key allies, including the United States and Germany, so far rebuffing Ukraine's request for an invitation to NATO. (WP, 11.13.24)
• Zelenskyy said in an interview that under Trump, the war between Russia and Ukraine will end faster, but there is no exact date, reported RBC-Ukraine. "For us, a just peace is very important, so that there is no feeling that we have lost the best because of the injustice that we have imposed on you. The war will end, but there is no exact date. Of course, with the politics of this team, which now leads the White House, the war will end faster. This is their approach, their promise to their community, and for them it's also very important," noted Zelenskyy. (RBC.ua, 11.15.24)
• Ukrainian officials have said for months that they would not cede territory occupied by Russia in any peace settlement. Now, as Ukraine contemplates an accelerated timetable for negotiations pushed by Trump, it is putting at least as much importance on obtaining security guarantees as on where an eventual cease-fire line might fall. With Ukrainian forces steadily losing ground in the east, two senior officials said that defending Ukraine’s interests in potential talks would hinge not on territorial boundaries, which are likely to be determined by the fighting, but on what assurances are in place to make a cease-fire hold. (NYT, 11.14.24)
  • “Talks should be based on guarantees,” said Roman Kostenko, the chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament’s Defense and Intelligence Committee. “For Ukraine, nothing is more important.” A senior Ukrainian official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations, was more direct. “The territorial question is extremely important, but it’s still the second question,” the official said, “The first question is security guarantees.” (NYT, 11.14.24)
  • A senior Ukrainian official said the next four to five months would be pivotal, signaling how Trump's return to the White House is focusing minds in Kyiv on a possible end game in the war. Trump, who will be sworn in as U.S. president on Jan. 20, has said he will end the war quickly but has not said how. "This winter is a critical point ... I hope the war is drawing to an end. Right now we will define the positions for both sides on negotiations, the starting positions," the official told Reuters, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive security issues. (Reuters, 11.11.24)
  • Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has refuted claims made by The New York Times suggesting that Ukraine is prioritizing security over the recovery of its territories. He emphasized that Kyiv’s goal remains the restoration of its territorial integrity. (RBC.ua, 11.15.24)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also claimed on Nov. 13 that the start of Trump's presidency would not fundamentally change the U.S. position on Ukraine and that any proposals to freeze the frontline are "even worse" than the Russia-favorable Minsk Agreements that followed Russia's first invasion of Ukraine in 2014. He spoke against the backdrop of reports that the Trump administration intends to appoint a "Ukrainian peace envoy to lead negotiations on ending the war" and announcements of multiple Trump national security cabinet picks, suggesting that Russia will maintain its goals in Ukraine regardless of the make-up of the incoming Trump administration. (ISW, 11.13.24)
• Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said: “As for the situation in Ukraine, the exchange of signals over closed channels is periodically carried out. ... We have literally isolated episodes when such an exchange of signals [between Russia and U.S.] led to certain results, from our point of view, important, necessary and positive. ... It cannot be said that the communication lines are cut off and there is no dial tone [including communications on military and political issues]. (Interfax, 11.09.24.)
• The president-elect said repeatedly during his campaign to secure his return to the White House that he would put a stop to the more than two and a half years of war in Ukraine "within 24 hours." And Nikolai Patrushev, part of the Russian president's inner circle and former Secretary of the Security Council, told the Russian newspaper Kommersant that Trump was duty-bound to act on his words. Patrushev said: "To achieve success in the elections, Donald Trump relied on certain forces to which he has corresponding obligations. And as a responsible person, he will be obliged to fulfill them.” (Newsweek, 11.12.24) If you thought that Patrushev was going to stick to ship-building in his public statements after the Kremlin revealed in May 2024 he was going to oversee, well, ship-building, upon being transferred by Putin from the post of secretary of his security council to that of his assistant, then you were wrong. In the four months since the May 2024 transfer, not only did Patrushev manage to partially roll back what many saw as a demotion by having Putin appoint him head of Russia’s newly-established Maritime Board, expanding his remit to 71% of the Earth’s surface, but he has also continued to comment on latest developments on land as well, most recently delving into what Trump’s victory may mean for Russia and urging the special services of the United States to prevent another attempt on the president-elect’s life in an interview with Kommersant.
• If Ukrainians are driven from Kursk, Russia could accept a cease-fire along the front line by next spring, Konstantin Zatulin, a lawmaker in Putin’s political party, said in an interview on Nov. 11. “Everything will be based on facts,” he said. “Everything we have is ours; everything Ukraine has is Ukraine’s.” (NYT, 11.14.24)
• "Putin is not ready for any substantive talk around any possible peace plan, because he is not ready to make any concessions. Full stop," said Andrei Kolesnikov, a veteran Russia watcher. "He believes that he has enough financial and emotional resources to continue." (WSJ, 11.14.24)
• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has spoken to Putin for the first time in nearly two years, as Western powers position for the return of a Trump administration that has made ending the Ukraine war a priority. Scholz’s spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit said that in a phone call on Nov. 15, the German leader “condemned the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and called on President Putin to end it and withdraw his troops.” He added that the chancellor also stressed Germany’s “steadfast determination” to support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression “as long as is necessary.” Scholz also said Russia’s deployment of North Korean troops against Ukraine was a “grave escalation” of the conflict, according to government sources. The phone conversation lasted about an hour and both leaders agreed to stay in contact. (FT, 11.15.24,  BBC, 11.14.24)
  • “A detailed and frank exchange of opinions on the situation in Ukraine was held,” according to the Kremlin’s readout of the call. “As for the perspective of the political-diplomatic settlement of the conflict, the President of Russia noted that the Russian side has never refused and is still open to the resumption of negotiations that were interrupted by the Kiev regime. The proposals of Russia are well known and presented, in particular, in a June speech...⁶ Possible agreements must take into account the interests of the Russian Federation in the sphere of security, be based on new territorial realities, and most importantly, eliminate the root causes of the conflict,” according to the readout. (Kremlin.ru. 11.15.24)
  • Zelenskyy said the call was a “Pandora’s box” and argued it weakens Putin's isolation. (BBC, 11.14.24)
• In a wide-ranging interview on the sidelines of a European defense summit in Prague, Adm. Rob Bauer, the Dutch chairman of NATO's Military Committee, said: ''If you allow a nation like Russia to win, to come out of this as the victor, then what does it mean for other autocratic states in the world where the U.S. has also interests?'' He added: ''It's important enough to talk about Ukraine on its own, but there is more at stake than just Ukraine.'' (NYT, 11.11.24)
• The parent company of Ukraine’s largest mobile provider called for an end to the war, pointing to the spiraling human cost of Russia’s ongoing invasion. Ukrainians have “put on a big fight” and they deserve “a solution with dignity,” Kaan Terzioglu, chief executive officer of Veon Ltd said Nov. 14. (Bloomberg, 11.14.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• A Kyiv official said it felt "less likely" after Trump's victory that there would be a NATO invitation for Ukraine and acknowledged there was a risk Trump would scale back aid. "I hope the Biden administration will try to avoid this risk by accelerating the speed.” (Reuters, 11.11.24)
• Hungary plans to cut back on defense spending next year just as Trump, one of the biggest proponents of NATO members shouldering a larger share of the military costs, returns to the U.S. presidency. Facing a budget squeeze, Hungary plans to lower military spending to slightly below 2% of gross domestic product from a targeted 2.2% this year, according to next year’s fiscal plan published this week. (Bloomberg, 11.15.24)
• A U.K. Treasury minister has declined to say when the U.K. will spend 2.5% of its GDP on defense, as he also warned the pledge could come with public sector trade-offs. Darren Jones refused to say whether the government will hit its target before the end of the current Parliament, due in 2029. (Bloomberg, 11.10.24)
• British fighter jets were sent to intercept a Russian reconnaissance aircraft flying close to U.K. airspace, the Defense Ministry said Nov. 15. (MT/AFP, 11.15.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Russian Security Council chief Sergei Shoigu on Nov. 12 met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi for the 19th round of the annual China-Russia strategic security consultation in Beijing:
  • Speaking to Wang in Beijing, Shoigu said the key task for Russia and China is to counter any attempt by the United States at dual containment of their countries.  "The comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation [between China and Russia] represent a model of collaboration between two powers in today's world," he told the Chinese foreign minister. "Although it is not a ­military-political alliance like those formed during the Cold War, the relations between our countries surpass this form of interstate relations," Shoigu was quoted as saying. 
  • Wang noted that President Xi Jinping and Putin had met three times this year, saying their strong leadership and close ties had ­provided the bilateral relations "political advantages and ultimate guarantee," the foreign ministry said. "The more complex the ­international situation gets and the more external challenges there are, the more the two sides must stand firm in solidarity and cooperate in defense of our ­common interests," Wang told Shoigu. Guided by the strategic planning and key agreements between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, China-Russia relations have reached the highest level in history. These are now relations of strategic partnership and cooperation in the new era, he said. (MT/AFP, 11.12.24, Turan, 11.12.24, TASS, 11.13.24, SCMP, 11.14.24) 
  • During his five-day stay in China, Shoigu visited the southern city of Zhuhai to view Chinese and Russian aircraft and other military hardware on Nov. 14. The show included the public debut of China's J-35A stealth fighter while a two-seat mockup of its J-20 stealth fighter, advanced helicopters, stealthy drones and missile defense systems also caught the spotlight. Shoigu visited the show after the Russian-made Su-57 stealth jet flew in its first appearance away from home. (AP, 11.14.24, Reuters, 11.14.24)
  • Shoigu’s visit aimed to deepen the partnership, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. (Reuters, 11.15.24)
• U.S. President Joe Biden is planning to meet Nov. 16 with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a trip to Lima, Peru, according to White House officials, in what amounts to a final meeting between two leaders of superpowers amid a period of significant transition that could alter that relationship. (WP, 11.13.24)
• Ukraine’s allies will look to pressure China over North Korea’s growing support for Russia’s war during a Group of 20 Summit in Brazil, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 11.14.24)
• Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine sparked a sharp decline in sales of vehicles from the European, Korean and Japanese carmakers that previously dominated the country’s car market.
• At the time of the invasion in February 2022, their brands made up 69 % of all sales, according to the Avtostat analytics agency. They now have a market share of just 8.5 %, while Chinese manufacturers’ share over the same period has risen from 9 % to 57 %. In the first nine months of 2024, Russia was the largest export destination for Chinese-built cars, with the volume reaching 849,951 vehicles, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association, an industry group. The second-biggest destination, Mexico, imported less than half that number. (FT, 11.15.24)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• The U.S. needs to be prepared to expand its nuclear force to deter the growing threats from China, Russia and North Korea, say senior Biden administration officials. Decisions on whether to deploy more nuclear weapons are being left to the incoming Trump administration, which has yet to spell out its defense plans. The Biden administration's policy is codified in its "Nuclear Weapons Employment Planning Guidance.” That highly classified directive, which was signed by President Biden earlier this year, instructs the Pentagon to develop options to simultaneously deter aggression by China, Russia and North Korea. A declassified report on the nuclear-employment guidance that will be sent to Congress on Nov. 15 doesn't outline specific options under consideration but notes that "it may be necessary to adapt current U.S. nuclear force capability, posture, composition, or size" to deal with "multiple adversaries who are making nuclear weapons more central to their national security strategies." (WSJ, 11.15.24)
• When commenting on U.S.-Russian strategic stability discussions, Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said: “there is currently no reason to talk about resuming not only negotiations… And politically, nothing has changed—they [Americans] are still telling us that they want to inflict a strategic defeat on us. How can we conduct a dialogue on strategic stability in conditions when strategic defeat has been doctrinally elevated to the goal of policy in the Russian direction?… [Should the U.S.] change its approaches and become more receptive to what we explain… then the situation can of course be re-evaluated and we can see to what extent this will be in our interests.” (Interfax, 11.09.24)
• When commenting on what the interviewer described as “revision” of Russia’s “nuclear doctrine. Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said: “This process will be completed… I would like to note once again that we are talking about adjusting not the Military Doctrine, but the Basic Principles of State Policy in the Sphere of Nuclear Deterrence… I would call [these principles] a sub-doctrine act. This document initially sets out the parameters and conditions that specify the basic scenarios laid down in the [2014] Military Doctrine. What is happening now is that the conclusions and results of the analysis of the situation, which is developing in relations with the West and with regard to the special military operation, is being reflected in the basic principles of state policy in the sphere of nuclear deterrence… [T]he moment is approaching when the Basic Principles of State Policy will reflect the possibilities for resorting to the nuclear option under certain circumstances that fit into the basic scenarios.” (Interfax, 11.09.24)
• Ukraine could develop a rudimentary nuclear bomb within months if Donald Trump withdraws U.S. military assistance, according to a briefing paper prepared for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. The country would quickly be able to build a basic device from plutonium with a similar technology to the “Fat Man” bomb dropped on Nagasaki in 1945, the report states. “Creating a simple atomic bomb, as the United States did within the framework of the Manhattan Project, would not be a difficult task 80 years later,” the document reads. With no time to build and run the large facilities required to enrich uranium, wartime Ukraine would have to rely instead on using plutonium extracted from spent fuel rods taken from Ukraine’s nuclear reactors. “That would be enough to destroy an entire Russian airbase or concentrated military, industrial or logistics installations. The exact nuclear yield would be unpredictable because it would use different isotopes of plutonium,” said the report’s author, Oleksii Yizhak, head of department at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, a government research center that acts as an advisory body to the presidential office and the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine. (Times of London, 11.13.24)
  • “Ukraine’s foreign ministry said it had no plans to develop nuclear weapons while stressing its commitment to the NPT. “We do not possess, do not develop and do not intend to create nuclear weapons,” Heorhiy Tykhy, a spokesman for the ministry said in a statement. (Times of London, 11.13.24)
• NATO troops would be on the ground in Ukraine fighting Russian forces if Moscow did not have nuclear weapons, the head of the alliance's military committee has said. "I am absolutely sure if the Russians did not have nuclear weapons, we would have been in Ukraine, kicking them out," Admiral Rob Bauer, the outgoing chief of NATO's Military Committee, said during an appearance at the IISS Prague Defense Summit in the Czech Republic on Nov. 10. (Newsweek, 11.10.24)
• For decades, the United Kingdom has maintained a stockpile of approximately 225 nuclear warheads—up to 120 of which are available for delivery by four Vanguard-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). The stockpile is now increasing. The United Kingdom maintains what it refers to as an “independent, minimum credible deterrent.” (U.K. Ministry of Defense Citation 2022). (FAS, November 2024)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• The Biden administration plans to support a controversial cybercrime treaty at the United Nations this week despite concerns that it could be misused by authoritarian regimes, according to senior government officials. (Bloomberg, 11.11.24)
• Russian interference with satellite systems in Europe has disrupted television broadcasting, including a children’s channel, several times since spring, Dutch media reported Nov. 15, citing internal investigations by companies impacted by the disruptions. Five satellites operated by French company Eutelsat and one by Luxembourg’s SES were briefly hijacked between mid-March and early November. (MT/AFP, 11.15.24)
• Russian state-owned companies are reducing their purchases of Microsoft products, but cannot yet completely abandon them. According to the results of ten months of 2024, purchases of the Windows operating system in Russia by state-owned companies and state corporations decreased by 69%—to seven million rubles (instead of 23 million for the same period in 2023). This was reported by Kommersant with reference to the company Kontur.Zakupki. (Meduza, 11.14.24)
• Russia’s federal censorship agency, Roskomnadzor, will conduct tests this December to disconnect the RuNet from the global Internet, according to a letter from the Central Bank to its affiliated companies. The tests will involve disabling access to the foreign segment of the Internet “in certain regions.” (Meduza, 11.15.24)
• A hacker has been sentenced to five years in a U.S. prison for laundering the proceeds of one of the biggest ever cryptocurrency thefts. U.S. and Russian national Ilya Lichtenstein pleaded guilty last year in the case involving the Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange being hacked in 2016 and the theft of almost 120,000 bitcoin. (BBC, 11.14.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• The International Energy Agency forecasts global demand to grow by 921,000 barrels a day in 2024 from 862,000 barrels a day previously, largely due to stronger-than-expected gasoil deliveries in OECD countries. Growth estimates for 2025 were slightly trimmed to 990,000 from 998,000 barrels a day. (WSJ, 11.14.24)
• Supply from OPEC+'s 18 countries subject to production quotas still stood 720,000 barrels a day above an implied target of 33.48 million barrels a day, including extra curbs pledged by Iraq, Russia and Kazakhstan, according to IEA calculations. (WSJ, 11.14.24)
• Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project has slashed output at its gas fields to nearly zero so far in November after stopping liquefaction last month due to western sanctions. Fields feeding the Novatek PJSC-led facility pumped an average of 0.4 million cubic meters of gas a day in the first ten days of November, according to a person with knowledge of industry data, who spoke on condition of anonymity. That’s a drop of more than 90% from the average output for most of October, Bloomberg calculations show. (Bloomberg, 11.12.24)
• Russia’s energy minister has attempted to combine the country’s oil majors in a sign of the power struggle at play over the Kremlin’s key wartime revenue source, according to four senior Russian energy industry figures. The pitch by Sergei Tsivilev, a relative of Putin who was appointed to the role in May, involved nationalizing Lukoil and tightening control over state-run Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, a unit of gas monopoly Gazprom, according to the people. However, Putin did not give Tsivilev the green light to explore the idea, which is opposed by company executives, the people said. (FT, 11.13.24)
• During Russian Energy Week, Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev provided updated figures on confirmed hydrocarbon reserves on Russia’s Arctic shelf. Current proven reserves stand at 17 billion tons of oil and 85 trillion cubic meters of gas. At current production rates, these reserves are projected to last approximately 32 years for oil and over 130 years for gas. (Bellona, November 2024).
• A cargo of Russian oil appears to have been switched between ocean-going tankers near a Spanish exclave in north Africa, restoring a clandestine practice that Madrid thought it had ended last summer. (Bloomberg, 11.11.24)
• Slovakia plans to hold talks with the European Union about extending its exemption to sanctions on Russian oil, according to Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar. (Bloomberg, 11.14.24)
• Austrian energy company OMV said it has been informed by Gazprom that the Russian company will stop sending gas tomorrow, sending European gas prices higher. The halt comes following OMV’s decision on Nov. 13 to offset what Gazprom owed the Austrian company after an arbitration ruling against payments for the gas supplies with “immediate effect.” OMV had warned of a potential disruption to gas supplies in its Nov. 13 press release. (FT, 11.15.24)
• At least three Russian oil refineries could face closures next year as declining exports, high crude oil costs and soaring interest rates lead to mounting financial losses, Reuters reported Nov. 15, citing anonymous sources familiar with the matter. The Tuapse refinery and Maller independent refineries, Ilsky in Krasnodar and Novoshakhtinsky in Rostov. (MT/AFP, 11.15.24)

Climate change:

• Countries at the COP29 summit tried to make progress on how to raise up to $1 trillion in climate finance for the world's most vulnerable, as political tensions overshadowed the talks and Argentina on Nov. 14 pulled its delegation from Baku. The success of this year's U.N. climate summit hinges on whether countries can agree on a new finance target for richer countries, development lenders and the private sector to deliver each year. Developing countries need at least $1 trillion annually by the end of the decade to cope with climate change, economists told the U.N. talks. (Reuters, 11.14.24)
  • Russia backs the Paris climate agreement, the Kremlin’s envoy said, adding he hoped President-elect Donald Trump will also keep the U.S. in the landmark agreement. “There are some voices in Russia calling for the withdrawal from the Paris accord. This is wrong. There is no way back,” Boris Titov, Putin’s special representative for international cooperation in sustainability, said in an interview at the COP29 summit in Azerbaijan. (Bloomberg, 11.15.24)
  • France and Argentina have withdrawn their top negotiators from the COP29 summit in Azerbaijan, deepening the divisions at a climate summit already shaken by Donald Trump’s election. The move by France, a champion of the U.N.’s strategy to fight climate change, came after the host country’s President Ilham Aliyev used a speech at the event to accuse the “regime of President [Emmanuel] Macron” of “brutally” killing citizens during recent protests in New Caledonia. Polish President Andrzej Duda has skipped the official group photo at the COP29 climate summit in Baku, with Polish broadcaster Polsat saying the decision was driven by the presence of the authoritarian ruler of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko. (RFE/RL, 11.12.24, FT, 11.14.24)
  • A damning investigation has revealed that Azerbaijan's COP29 leadership attempted to use the U.N. climate summit to broker fossil fuel deals, drawing fierce criticism from former U.N. climate chief Christiana Figueres, who condemned the actions as "a treason" to the climate process. Secret recordings and documents obtained through an undercover operation by Global Witness, and reviewed by the BBC, show Azerbaijan's COP29 chief executive Elnur Soltanov discussing oil and gas investment opportunities with individuals he believed represented a Hong Kong investment firm. (BNE, 11.11.24)
• Researchers from the Marchuk Institute of Computational Mathematics at the Russian Academy of Sciences and MIPT have projected climate changes in Northern Eurasia using two climate models with different sensitivities to rising CO₂ levels. The more sensitive model predicts a temperature increase of over 6°C by the end of the 21st century, potentially leading to a complete disappearance of Arctic ice between 2080 and 2090. The findings were published in Climate Dynamics. (Bellona, November 2024).
• At the Eastern Economic Forum, Mikhail Zheleznyak, Director of the Permafrost Institute under the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, presented findings on the financial impact of permafrost thawing in Russia’s Arctic Zone. Permafrost experts estimate that minimum damages to residential and industrial structures alone could reach 7 to 10 trillion rubles by 2050. These estimates exclude potential damage to oil and gas infrastructure and future investments in northern Russian territories. (Bellona, November 2024).

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Russia and the U.S. have had contact on the subject of the war in Ukraine via “closed channels” at the military and political levels, according to a top Russian foreign relations official. “As for the situation in Ukraine, the exchange of signals via closed channels is periodically carried out,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in an interview with the Interfax. “This is done with varying degrees of intensity depending on the need, but all of this is in working order.” One of the few remaining areas of diplomatic cooperation has been prisoner exchanges. Ryabkov said that topic remains on the agenda for relations between Russia and the U.S. Ryabkov reiterated that diplomatic relations with the U.S. could still be completely severed if Russia’s frozen assets are confiscated. (Bloomberg, 11.09.24)
• A St. Petersburg-based technology company has filed a trademark application in Russia for a new vodka brand named Trumpovka in honor of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. (MT/AFP, 11.13.24)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Here are the key appointments that Trump has announced for his upcoming administration, along with sources and dates:
  • Secretary of State: Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida. (The Times, 11.14.24)
  • Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth, a Fox News commentator and Army National Guard veteran. (NYMag, 11.14.24)
  • Attorney General: Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida. (The Times, 11.14.24)
  • Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, a former Democratic congresswoman and lieutenant colonel in the Army Reserve. (NYT, 11.13.24, The Times, 11.14.24)
  • Secretary of Homeland Security: South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem. (WSJ, 11.14.24)
  • U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations: Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York. (WSJ, 11.14.24)
  • U.S. Ambassador to Israel: Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. (NYPost, 11.14.24)
  • National Security Advisor: Rep. Mike Waltz of Florida. (WSJ, 11.14.24)
  • White House Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles, Trump's 2024 campaign co-chair. (WSJ, 11.14.24)
  • "Border Czar:" Former Acting ICE Director Tom Homan. (WSJ, 11.14.24)
  • Special Envoy to the Middle East: Real estate investor Steve Witkoff. (WSJ, 11.14.24)
  • Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy: Stephen Miller, former senior advisor in Trump's first term. (WSJ, 11.14.24)
  • Director of the CIA: John Ratcliffe, former Director of National Intelligence. (WSJ, 11.14.24)
  • Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Former Rep. Lee Zeldin of New York. (WSJ, 11.14.24)
  • Department of Government Efficiency: Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy appointed to lead this initiative. (WSJ, 11.14.24)
• “There is a hope, a modest hope, that lower level dialogue [between Moscow and Washington] will at least resume, because it simply does not exist now,” the Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, said in an interview in his office in reference to Trump’s victory. “But at the same time, we won’t put on rose-colored glasses. We are well aware that it is one thing to make statements during an election campaign, but when a person enters the Oval Office, everything is different.” (NYT, 11.15.24)
  • “Trump is recognizable,” said Nina Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs at the New School who also lives in Moscow. “Trump is a palace guy. And Russians like palaces.” (NYT, 11.15.24)
  • “Moscow does think that there may be an important opportunity and they don’t want to miss it,” said Dmitri Simes, the former president of The National Interest, a think tank based in Washington, D.C., who now lives in Moscow. (NYT, 11.15.24)
• The Kremlin has denied media reports of a phone call between U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying that the reports were "completely false." The Washington Post, citing sources close to Trump, reported on Nov. 10 that Trump had spoken with Putin by phone on Nov. 7 and discussed the war in Ukraine. It said Trump took the call in Florida a day after speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. (RFE/RL, 11.11.24)
• A State Department office that uses high-level U.S. intelligence to combat Russian and Chinese information operations abroad faces a possible shutdown at the end of the year, just weeks before President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House. (WSJ, 11.10.24)
• Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said when commenting on Trump’s victory]: I think that the [Russian] President’s detailed speech at [the] Valdai [Club’s annual conference] confirmed, in fact, the line that we have been adhering to for a long time. Namely: declarations, statements, promises, some signals are, of course, important… But actions are needed, and we will give assessments based on the specific actions of the future [U.S. presidential] administration. [When asked if preparations are being made for a Trump-Putin “contact”] Ryabkov said: “There is no preparatory work in terms of coordination, matching schedules, or any more specific planning of the format of such contact.” (Interfax, 11.09.24.)
• Russia and the U.S. could conduct another prisoner exchange in February 2025, according to a lawyer representing Ksenia Karelina, a dual U.S.-Russian citizen serving a 12-year prison sentence in Russia for donating $51 to a Ukrainian aid organization. (Meduza, 11.15.24)
• When asked to comment on U.S.-RF prisoners’ exchanges Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said: By the way, that exchange can be attributed, perhaps, to several, literally isolated episodes of our relations with the United States in recent years, when it was really possible to solve a problem, untie a certain knot, and not accumulate even more difficulties and not tighten this knot tighter… the topic remains on the agenda.” (Interfax, 11.09.24)
• When asked to comment what, in addition to confiscation of Russia’s assets frozen by the West, could prompt Russia to consider severing diplomatic relations with the U.S., Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said: “Dramatic and further escalatory actions leading to a complication of the situation on the line of combat contact.” He also said the candidacy for the next Russian ambassador to U.S. has not been approved yet. (Interfax, 11.09.24.)
• Several Russian billionaires don’t share the optimism of Vladimir Putin’s government that Russia’s economy will keep growing at a pace most Western countries can only envy. And they see little prospect that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will lift sanctions. Russia’s economy faces troubling structural changes, according to some of the tycoons. The exit of international companies degraded manufacturing capacity, particularly in the technology and machinery sectors. The defense industry’s demands increasingly shape the war economy, import substitution is proceeding slowly and the army’s need for more new troops is intensifying labor shortages, they said. (Bloomberg, 11.12.24)
• A Russian court in Yekaterinburg has upheld the 12-year prison sentence handed down in August to dual U.S.-Russian citizen Ksenia Karelina for treason after she was found guilty of transferring $51 to a Ukrainian aid charity in early 2022. (RFE/RL, 11.11.24)
• A new film about Donald Trump will not be shown in Russian movie theaters after its local distributor failed to receive a screening license from the authorities, the Vedomosti business newspaper reported Nov. 11. (MT/AFP, 11.11.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin will for a second year in a row combine his annual press conference and televised call-in show next month, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Nov. 13. “The unified format, which will combine the annual press conference with elements of a direct line, will take place in the second half of December,” Peskov told reporters, saying he would announce a date for the event later. “As usual, we will collect citizens’ questions and answer them,” Peskov said. (MT/AFP, 11.13.24)
• Russians are facing a surge in food prices, creating a headache for President Vladimir Putin as he tries to balance the Kremlin’s military ambitions with a need for domestic stability. A kilogram of potatoes is at least 73% more expensive than at the start of the year, while the price of butter has increased by more than 30%, according to data released by the Federal Statistics Service on Nov. 14. (Bloomberg, 11.14.24)
• Late payments from customers and partners have been climbing in Russia, signaling distress in the corporate sector as firms struggle to service debt under such high rates. With real interest rates once bank premiums are factored in effectively reaching 25% for businesses, the likelihood of defaults and bankruptcies has risen sharply, Meduza reports. (MT/AFP, 11.11.24)
• Russia’s government is planning to resume major layoffs of public sector employees next year after they were put on hold due to the Covid-19 pandemic and full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kommersant business newspaper reported Nov. 11. (MT/AFP, 11.11.24)
• A local official in southwestern Russia’s Kursk region was sacked Nov. 12 after residents who were displaced by Ukraine’s cross-border incursion came out over the weekend to protest a lack of compensation for lost housing. “The head of Sudzhansky district will be relieved of his post today,” Kursk region Governor Alexei Smirnov told residents who had gathered inside an auditorium. A video of the meeting showed the crowd erupting in applause following the announcement. (MT/AFP, 11.12.24)
• A new Russian draft law on the “activities of individuals under foreign influence” would prevent people designated as “foreign agents” from accessing money earned in Russia until their status is lifted, announced State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin. (Meduza, 11.14.24)
• Russia’s lower house of Parliament passed a law that would ban what it calls ''propaganda'' discouraging Russians from having children. (NYT, 11.12.24)
• Independent Russian demographer Alexander Raksha has estimated that Russian deaths would outnumber births by 608,000 this year, with an overall population decline of around 550,000 after migration of some 60,000. In September, Russia's statistical agency reported that the number of births for the first half of the year plunged to 599,600, the lowest since 1999. The population decline "is catastrophic for the future of the nation," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in July. Putin has called for the reviving of "wonderful traditions" of the past when mothers had seven to eight children. (WP, 11.10.24)
• A Moscow court has sentenced 67-year-old pediatrician Nadezhda Buyanova to 5.5 years in prison for spreading “disinformation” about the Russian army to a child. (Meduza, 11.12.24)
• A Russian military court has sentenced Anastasia Berezhinskaya, a theater director, to eight years in prison for anti-war comments that include calls to kill President Vladimir Putin, the (MT/AFP, 11.14.24)
• Russia’s Military Cassation Court, which handles cases of victims of political repression, has revoked the rehabilitation of more than 250 people since 2020, BBC News Russian reported on Nov. 12. (Meduza, 11.12.24)

High-ranking Kremlin officials and Russia’s security services were behind the decision to shutter Moscow’s award-winning Gulag History Museum, Moscow officials close to the matter have said. (MT/AFP, 11.14.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia is changing the rules for payments made to soldiers wounded in the war on Ukraine as the costs of the invasion pile up. President Vladimir Putin signed an order on Nov. 14 increasing the one-time payment for those whose injuries led to a disability. Under the new rules, they will receive 4 million rubles ($40,404), according to the document published on a legislative website. That’s a one-million ruble increase from what any wounded soldier received under the earlier system. The order will apply retroactively, allowing any soldier rendered disabled by war injuries since the start of Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of its neighbor to claim the difference between the new allocation and the previous payout. (Bloomberg, 11.14.24)
• As Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine stretches far its third year, regional governments are funneling an average of 13% of their social welfare budgets into sign-on bonuses for new contract soldiers, iStories reports. When factoring in compensation for injuries and regional death benefits for soldiers’ families, nearly a quarter (23%) of social spending in Russian regions is now going to war participants. (Meduza, 11.12.24)
• Moscow residents who have failed to show up at military registration and enlistment offices after they received summonses are getting SMS notifications telling them they are banned from leaving Russia. (RFE/RL, 11.13.24)
• Russia’s oldest and biggest movie studio Mosfilm donated dozens of Soviet-era tanks and other armored vehicles to the Russian army last year, its CEO said during a meeting with President Vladimir Putin on Nov. 13. Mosfilm storage facilities housed 28 T-55 tanks, eight PT-76 light tanks, six infantry fighting vehicles and other military equipment, according to the company’s chief executive Karen Shakhnazarov. “I learned that there was a need, contacted the Defense Ministry and they took these vehicles,” Shakhnazarov told Putin in a meeting at the Kremlin. (MT/AFP, 11.13.24)
• Ten soldiers in a village in Russia’s Novosibirsk region left their unit without permission, local officials reported on Nov. 13. (Meduza, 11.13.24)
• NASA and the Russian space agency are not in agreement about the risk an ongoing leak poses to the space station, a U.S. advisory committee said. (Space.com, 11.14.24)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Pro-Kremlin bloggers are fiercely debating the September arrest of Vladimir Novikov, a military commander in Ukraine’s occupied Donbas region, who some claim has been unfairly targeted after allegedly “stepping on the toes” of drug dealers selling to soldiers. But a Telegram channel reportedly linked to Russian security forces offers a darker account, alleging that a torture prison was established on the unit’s grounds, where hostages were held and extorted for money. (Istories, 11.15.24)
• Roman Starovoit, the former governor of Russia’s Kursk region, acknowledged in a video published Nov. 14 that Russian soldiers looted homes abandoned by residents of the region’s Glushkovsky District who fled Ukraine’s ongoing cross-border incursion. (Meduza, 11.14.24)
• Federal Security Service (FSB) officers in Russia’s Kirov region have arrested a 16-year-old boy suspected of attempting to sabotage the Trans-Siberian Railway, according to a statement on the FSB’s website. (Meduza, 11.15.24)
• The family of one of the Russian secret agents suspected of poisoning Sergei Skripal and his daughter with Novichok in March 2018 (and accidentally killing Dawn Sturgess three months later) has changed their names. Anatoly Chepiga’s family was issued new passport documents under the surname Korulin(a) in 2019. (Meduza, 11.13.24)
• Russian law enforcement officers arrested an Italian citizen at the border with Latvia after he tried to bring 170 grams (6 ounces) of hashish with him into the country, Russia’s customs service said Nov. 14. (MT/AFP, 11.14.24)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russia is seeking to woo African countries this weekend at a summit in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, with President Vladimir Putin promising the continent "total support." "Our country will continue to provide total support to our African friends in different sectors," Putin said in an address read out by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to other foreign ministers and senior officials. (MT/AFP , 11.10.24)
  • "Russia is not a colonial power" and "has never been a colonial power," said Mali's Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop, on the sidelines of the Russia-Africa conference on Saturday. (MT/AFP , 11.10.24)
  • Burkina Faso's Foreign Minister Karamoko Jean-Marie Traore said a partnership with Russia was a better fit for his country than its historic ties with France. (MT/AFP, 11.09.24)
  • Niger's government wants Russian firms to invest in uranium and other natural resource production, its mining minister said on Nov. 13, amid worsening relations with its former colonial ruler France. French nuclear group Orano suspended uranium production in Niger last month. The move came after the country's military junta, which seized power in July 2023, revoked a permit for one of the largest uranium deposits in the world. "We have already met with Russian companies that are interested in coming to explore and exploit Niger's natural resources… not only uranium," Niger's Mining Minister Ousmane Abarchi told the state-run news agency RIA Novosti. (MT/AFP, 11.13.24)
• India is pushing for more trade with Russia to be settled in rupees as commerce between the two countries sharply increases. Trade between the traditional allies has shot up five times in the past three years, according to trade ministry data, as India lapped up Russian crude oil while most others shunned its barrels following the invasion of Ukraine. “Our bilateral trade is today at $66 billion,” Jaishankar said. “This makes the goal of reaching $100 billion by 2030 more than realistic.” (Bloomberg, 11.11.24)
• Russia’s Foreign Ministry on Nov. 15 called on Palestinian militants to release two Russian-Israeli hostages after one of them appeared in a video earlier this week. Islamic Jihad, a Palestinian militant group allied with Hamas, released a video on Nov. 13 of Alexander Trufanov, who was forcibly taken to Gaza amid the Hamas-led attack on Israel last October. (MT/AFP, 11.15.24)
• Turkey has been invited to become a partner of the BRICS group of emerging-market powers, short of its expectation that it would be granted full membership. (Bloomberg, 11.13.24)
• Russia’s political and business elites, as well as their friends and family, have for years been able to travel abroad using diplomatic passports, the investigative news outlet The Insider reported Nov. 14. (MT/AFP, 11.14.24)

Ukraine:

• The Ukrainian presidential office denies it is preparing for a vote. If elections were held tomorrow, Zelenskyy would struggle to repeat the success of the landslide win he secured in 2019. For now, there are two dates on Kyiv politicos’ lips: January 20, 2025, the date of Trump’s inauguration, [and] the first moment for any possible ceasefire and lifting of military law, and May 25th, the earliest mooted date for an election. (The Economist, 11.13.24)
• Ukraine’s sovereign bonds have surged in price as investors bet that the incoming U.S. administration will push for a quick end to the war with Russia. The dollar-denominated bonds have risen 12 % in the past month, in expectation that the re-election of Donald Trump will lead to a ceasefire and boost Ukraine’s capacity to repay creditors. (FT, 11.14.24)
• Some 282 Ukrainian enterprises relocated from the combat zone and frontline regions of Ukraine operate in Zakarpattia. (Korrespondent.net, 11.14.24)
• Even though Ukraine has stepped up its anti-graft measures over the past decade to advance its ambition of joining the European Union, corruption scandals are still rife. Transparency International ranked Ukraine 104 out of 180 countries in its "corruption perceptions index," up from 144 in 2013. For some officials, Russia's invasion has provided new opportunities for personal enrichment. Several high-profile cases of alleged embezzlement of reconstruction funds, as well as the arrest of officials for selling army exemption certificates, have emerged throughout the war. (AFP/Barrons, 11.14.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Protesters stormed the parliament of the Russian-backed breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia on Nov. 15 and demanded the resignation of its leader over an unpopular investment agreement with Moscow. (Reuters, 11.15.24)
• Moldova's Foreign Ministry has condemned Russia's "aggressive" actions after two Russian drones entered Moldovan airspace and crashed on its territory on Nov. 10. (RFE/RL, 11.11.24)
• Demonstrators gathered in Lithuania’s capital to protest the move by the Baltic nation’s Social Democrats to forge a coalition with a party whose leader is accused of making antisemitic remarks. The controversy centers around Dawn of Nemunas founder and leader Remigijus Zemaitaitis, who’s the subject of a criminal case of inciting hatred. (Bloomberg, 11.14.24)
• Authorities in Kosovo have detained a 52-year-old Tajik woman on charges of espionage, alleging she was spying for Russia. Sitora Atomamadova was taken into custody on Nov. 6, following a visit to the Kosovo migration service to resolve issues related to extending her stay in the country. (RFE/RL, 11.13.24)
• Foreigners arriving in Russia through four Moscow airports and a land border checkpoint with Kazakhstan will be required to submit their photos and fingerprints starting next month, according to a Russian government decree. (MT/AFP, 11.14.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• “None of these three leaders—Trump, Putin or Zelenskyy—can afford to lose. Ukrainian and Russian leaders see this war as defining their lives. Mr. Trump cannot simply throw Ukraine under the bus. That would make him look weak in the short term, and in the long one force him to restore assistance to a yet more weakened and bleeding Ukraine,” Dmytro Kuleba, foreign minister and deputy prime minister of Ukraine, wrote in the Economist. (The Economist, 11.13.24)

Footnotes

1. For RM’s compilation of Rubio’s views on post-Soviet Eurasia, click here.
2. If Deep State’s this week measurements  and estimates by the Ukrainian armed forces Aug. 12, 2024 are accurate, then it means that Ukraine’s control of Russian territory changed from 386 square miles sometime circa Aug. 12 to 231 square miles sometime circa on Nov.14.
3. The other country Putin has recently described as Russia’s ally is China. In fact, he has done so twice already this fall, including most recently during his remarks at the Valdai Club annual conference on Nov. 7. 
4. According to RM editor Ivan Arreguín-Toft’s Nov. 14, 2024 estimate based on data provided for that period by the Institute for the Study of War.  Please note that these are gross rather than net gains.
5. For an analysis of combat in the Kursk region, see this Forbes story.
6. The Kremlin readout might be referring to this speech.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Ukrainian Emergency Service via AP.