5 Things to Know

1. Advisers to Donald Trump are floating proposals to end the Ukraine war that would cede large parts of the country to Russia for the foreseeable future and take NATO membership for Ukraine off the table, according to a Reuters analysis of statements and interviews with several people close to the U.S. president-elect, including his incoming Russia-Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg. Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Ukraine must find diplomatic solutions to regaining occupied territories and suggested he may be open to negotiations by sending his chief of staff Andrei Yermak to Washington to meet with members of Trump’s team such as JD Vance, Mike Waltz and a representative for Kellogg. While Yermak has so far made no public comments on the outcome of these meetings, Ukraine’s foreign minister repeated his government’s stance that Kyiv would reject any security guarantees other than NATO membership. Just as Ukraine’s territorial losses and manpower shortages may make Zelenskyy more amenable to negotiating a deal with Putin, the latter’s knowledge of these losses and shortages may make him less willing to pursue such a deal for as long as his forces keep capturing land in Ukraine and retaking land in Russia’s Kursk region. It is also difficult to imagine how any mediator of talks between Ukraine and Russia can accommodate Ukraine’s demands for NATO membership given the persistent opposition of some of the alliance’s members, such as Hungary.*
2. In the past month (Nov. 1–Dec. 4), the Russian forces made a net gain of 354 square miles in Ukraine, which is about the size of the city of Dallas, Texas. This gain includes 95 square miles Russia gained in the past week, which is slightly larger than the size of Boston, Mass., according RM staff’s Dec. 4, 2024, estimate based on data provided for that period by the Institute for the Study of War. ISW itself has calculated that Russia captured 1,042 square miles (2,700 square kilometers) in 2024, about the size of Rhode Island, compared with just 180 square miles (465 square kilometers) last year, according to FT. In the latest developments reported on Dec. 6, the Russian military claimed to have captured the Donetsk region settlements of Sukhi Yaly and Pustynka, with the latter about 30 kilometers away from the embattled supply hub of Pokrovsk and about 35 kilometers away from the industrial town of Kurakhove. Ukrainian military analyst DeepState said Russian troops were less than 7 kilometers from the outskirts of Pokrovsk, which is a major logistics base and transport hub for Ukraine’s armed forces, where multiple roads and rail lines intersect. Given how precarious the situation has become in eastern Ukraine, Zelenskyy announced that he was replacing the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, appointing Maj. Gen. Mykhailo Drapaty to succeed Lt. Gen. Oleksandr Pavliuk, accordiung to NYT.
3. The U.S. has pressed Ukraine to lower its military recruitment age to 18 to address a severe shortage of manpower that has weakened its position on the battlefield and led to the fastest Russian gains in two years, according to FT. In addition to casualties, the personnel strength of the Ukrainian armed forces has been diminished by desertions. More Ukrainian soldiers have deserted in the first 10 months of this year than in the previous two years of the war, according to FT. Since 2022, Ukraine has opened nearly 96,000 criminal cases against servicemen who abandoned their positions in what represents a sixfold increase over the past two years, and most of the cases were opened this year, according to Bloomberg.
4. Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General Staff, and Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, have spoken by phone on how to manage escalation concerns between the two countries, defense and military officials told NYT. The rare phone call took place on Nov. 27, just six days after Russia launched a new nuclear-capable MRBM, “Oreshnik,” at Ukraine and nine days before Vladimir Putin said he would heed Belarus’ request to deploy this missile on Belarus’s territory. The past week has seen Putin continue to talk up the Oreshnik, describing its impact as being “comparable in power to that of a nuclear weapon.” In remarks made on Nov. 28, Putin also said Russia will use any means it has at its disposal to prevent the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Ukraine. The Russian Defense Ministry is yet to confirm Gerasimov’s conversation with Brown. Previously, the Kremlin denied reports in the U.S. media that Putin spoke to Donald Trump upon the latter’s victory in the U.S. presidential election.
5. Three-quarters of Americans (76%) worry Russia might use nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine, and 70% are concerned about Russia launching a thermonuclear attack against the U.S., up 10 points since 2021, according to the 2024 Reagan National Defense Survey, conducted in November 2024. In contrast, only 39% of Russians think Russia would be definitely or probably justified in using nuclear weapons in this war, while 45% do not find such actions justifiable, according to the Levada Center’s November poll. The gap between nuclear hawks and doves in Russia was wider than in the previous poll: in April 2023, some 29% of Russians said they’d justify the use of nukes in Ukraine, while 56% held the opposite view.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Khmelnytskyi, Rivne and South Ukraine NPPs have largely resumed electricity production after a temporary reduction in capacity last week due to Russian shelling, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi announced. He noted that the stations are still operating in difficult conditions caused by the constant attacks of the Russian Federation on the energy infrastructure of Ukraine. (RBC.ua, 12.06.24)
• The last batch of spent nuclear fuel has been removed from the Russian Navy's coastal technical base in the closed administrative-territorial entity of Ostrovnoy (Gremikha settlement) in the northern Russian region of Murmansk: the last, 11th, set of spent removable parts from a liquid-metal cooled reactor was disassembled and sent for reprocessing. (Rosatom, 12.02.24)
• Rosatom completed the decommissioning of retired nuclear submarines in the Russian Far East. A total of 82 submarines put out of operation before 2022 were decommissioned. Spent nuclear fuel from decommissioned submarines was removed to Mayak. (Dmitry Kovchegin’s Russian Nuclear Security Update #22, 12.03.24)
• The Mining and Chemical Combine in Russia’s Zheleznogorsk opened the second pilot reprocessing line. Unlike the first line, which was first tested in 2018 and was described as a "chain of hot cells," the second one appears to be an industrial-scale facility that will further test the reprocessing technologies. (Fissilematerial.org, 11.18.24)
• Rosatom Technical Academy (Rosatomtech) conducted two physical protection training courses for Akkuyu NPP personnel in Turkey. The first course covered PP fundamentals, and the second covered analytical support for PP, including vulnerability assessment and site self-evaluation inspections. (Dmitry Kovchegin’s Russian Nuclear Security Update #22, 12.03.24)
• Russia’s exclusion from uranium fuel supply chains has made the case for restarting one of the U.K.’s biggest nuclear power plants more compelling, the facility’s joint owner has said. The comments by Grant Isaac, finance director at Canada’s Cameco, part-owner of the Springfields nuclear site in Preston, northern England, came after Russia last month banned exports of enriched uranium fuel to the U.S. Uranium is a key fuel needed to run nuclear plants. (FT, 12.01.24)
• The Meshchansky Court of Moscow has begun the trial of the director of one of the divisions of the Rosatom state corporation, Gennady Sakharov, and the former general director of the Orgenergostroy company, Elgudzhi Kokosadze. The top manager is accused of receiving bribes from an entrepreneur totaling more than 30 million rubles for lobbying the interests of his company when receiving orders. Sakharov denies the claims of law enforcement officers; his accomplice, on the contrary, admitted guilt in court. (Kommersant, 11.27.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte said on Dec. 4 that Russia was providing North Korea with “nuclear” support in exchange for troops from Pyongyang, the first such confirmation from a senior Western official. “In return for troops and weapons, Russia is providing North Korea with support for its missile and nuclear programs,” Rutte said after a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels. “These developments could destabilize the Korean Peninsula and even threaten the United States.” (FT, 12.04.24)
• A mutual defense pact between North Korea and Russia entered into force on Dec. 4 after the two sides exchanged ratification documents. The open-ended “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty” obligates both states to provide military assistance “without delay” in the case of an attack on the other, and to jointly oppose Western sanctions. (MT/AFP, 12.05.24)
• Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov made an unannounced visit to Pyongyang on Nov. 29. During the visit, Belousov met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. Belousov and Kim discussed the Russia-North Korea strategic partnership and relations between the Russian and North Korean militaries. Kim reiterated support for Russia's war in Ukraine and boilerplate rhetoric that the Kremlin uses to forward its campaign aimed at forcing the West into self-deterrence. Belousov also met with North Korean Defense Minister No Kwang Chol on Nov. 29 and stated that the Russian-North Korean comprehensive strategic partnership agreement signed in June 2024 is the foundation of a "new Eurasian security system" and will play a stabilizing role in northeast Asia. No stated that strengthening military cooperation is the "highest priority" and that the Russian and North Korean defense ministries are already engaged in high-level exchanges. (ISW, 11.29.24, ISW, 11.30.24)
• According to Lt. Andriy Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, the regime in Pyongyang has donated to Russia 100 artillery systems including M1989 self-propelled howitzers and M1991 rocket launchers. (Forbes, 12.01.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russia holds an estimated 8,000 Ukrainian soldiers, while Ukraine is believed to have up to 5,000 Russians waiting to be returned to their homeland. (WSJ, 11.29.24)
• Several senior Ukrainian medical officers said that around 1,000 additional doctors are needed to cover the demands of Ukraine’s front-line units alone. (FP, 11.29.24) For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.
• Ukraine said Dec. 4 that the body of a mayor captured by Russian forces in the Zaporizhzhia region at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, who allegedly died in their captivity, had been returned by Moscow. Moscow seized swathes of the Zaporizhzhia region in the days after the invasion began, including the town of Dniprorudne, and arrested its mayor Yevhen Matveyev, Kyiv says. (MT/AFP, 12.04.24)
• The U.S. Department of State and Yale University's Humanitarian Research Lab published a report on Dec. 3 detailing the role of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kremlin Commissioner on Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova, members of Russia's ruling United Russia party, Russia's Ministry of Education and occupation officials in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in at least 314 confirmed cases of child deportation from occupied Ukraine. (ISW, 12.04.24)
• Russia is using a militaristic youth organization, Yunarmia, to foster the loyalty of teenagers in occupied parts of Ukraine and prepare them to fight in Moscow's war against their native country. (RFE/RL, 12.03.24)
• Russian attack drones have for months targeted civilians in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, in an attempt to empty the city ahead of a possible offensive there, the Financial Times reported Dec. 4, citing local officials and residents. At least 37 people have been killed in more than 9,500 drone attacks on Kherson and its neighboring villages since mid-July. (MT/AFP, 12.04.24)

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month (Nov. 1–Dec. 4), Russian forces made a net gain of 354 square miles in Ukraine, which is about the size of the city of Dallas, Texas. This gain includes 95 square miles Russia gained in the past week, which is slightly larger than the size of Boston, MA, according RM staff’s Dec. 4, 2024, estimate based on data provided for that period by the Institute for the Study of War. ISW itself has calculated that Russia captured 1,042 square miles (2,700 square kilometers) in 2024, about the size of Rhode Island, compared with just 180 square miles (465 square kilometers) last year, according to FT. (RM, 12.06.24)

• On the nights of Nov. 27 to 28 and Nov. 28 to 29, Russian forces conducted a large series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine’s energy grid and major defense industrial facilities. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 188 drones and missiles against Ukraine on the night of Nov. 27 to 28, including: three S-300 air defense missiles from Belgorod Oblast targeting Kharkiv Oblast; 57 Kh-101 cruise missiles from the airspace over Volgograd Oblast; 28 Kalibr cruise missiles from vessels in the Black Sea; three Kh-59/69 cruise missiles from airspace over the Black Sea; and 97 Shahed drones and unknown other strike drones from Kursk, Oryol and Rostov oblasts and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai as of 1030 local time on Nov. 28. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 76 Kh-101 missiles, three Kh-59/69 missiles and 35 drones, and 62 Russian drones became “lost,” likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare interference. The Ukrainian Air Force noted that Ukrainian forces also downed 90% of the Russian Kalibr missiles and that at least 12 Russian drones and missiles successfully struck Ukrainian fuel and energy objects. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 132 Shahed drones and unknown other strikes from Oryol, Rostov and Kursk oblasts and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai on the night of Nov. 28 to 29 and that Ukrainian forces downed 88 drones on Nov. 29. (ISW, 11.29.24)
• On Nov. 28-29, Ukrainian air forces carried out strikes against four Russian air defense systems and radars in occupied Ukraine and two oil depots in Russia. Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on Nov. 29 that Ukrainian drone units recently destroyed a Russian Zoopark radar system in an unspecified area of Russia or occupied Ukraine, and the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Buk-M3 air defense system in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The GUR reported on Nov. 28 that Ukrainian forces destroyed a “Podlyot” mobile radar system—which identifies targets for S-300/400 air defense systems—near occupied Kotovske, Crimea. (ISW, 11.29.24)
• As of Nov. 29, Russian troops in eastern Ukraine had seized at least 10 villages and settlements in roughly as many days, according to a group with ties to the Ukrainian Army that maps the battlefield, as Moscow presses on with slow but steady advances that have heightened pressure on Ukraine’s authorities to start cease-fire talks. The situation looked particularly precarious for Ukrainian forces in Donetsk, in Ukraine’s east, where Russian forces are closing in on their last two strongholds in the southern part of the region, according to analysis by the group, DeepState. The fall of the strongholds, Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka, could pave the way for a Russian takeover of the area, experts say. (NYT, 11.30.24)
• On Nov. 29, in a sign of difficulties, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that he was replacing the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, appointing Maj. Gen. Mykhailo Drapaty to succeed Lt. Gen. Oleksandr Pavliuk. Pavliuk had been in the role since February, a period during which Ukraine lost hundreds of square miles of territory. Zelenskyy said Drapaty had led the defense of Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv region during a Russian spring offensive there, which didn’t yield major gains. (NYT, 11.29.24)
• On Nov. 30, Russian forces were reported to have advanced south of Pokrovsk amid continued offensive operations in the direction. Geolocated footage published on Nov. 30 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along the E50 highway northeast of Hryhorivka (south of Pokrovsk), seized the remainder of Yurivka (southwest of Hryhorivka) and advanced west of Pushkine (further southwest of Yurivka). (ISW, 11.30.24)
• On Nov. 30, Ukrainian forces were reported to have regained lost positions north of Kharkiv City amid continued Russian offensive operations in the Kharkiv direction on Nov. 30. (ISW, 11.30.24)
• On Dec. 1, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Novyi Komar, Berestove, Pohrebky and in Kurakhove. (RM, 12.06.24)
• On the night of Dec. 1 to 2, Russian forces launched 110 Shaheds and decoys at Ukraine, 50 of which were "lost" due to Ukrainian EW interference (45 %), and 52 of which Ukrainian forces shot down. (ISW, 12.02.24)
• On Dec. 2, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Staryi Terny, Kurakhove, near Kruhlyakivka and Pushkin. (RM, 12.06.24)
• On Dec. 3, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Ukrainian Defense Forces liberated Novomlynsk while Russian armed forces advanced near Sukhi Yaly, Kostiantynopolske, Dachenske, Pushkine and in Kurakhove. (RM, 12.06.24)
• On Dec. 3, Ukraine said that its forces had repelled a Russian effort to cross a key waterway on the eastern frontline. Russian forces had tried to cross the Oskil River, which has long been a de facto front line across the east of the war-scarred country. (MT/AFP, 12.03.24)
• On Dec. 3, a Russian drone hit Ternopil, a western town home to 224,000 people that saw a deadly strike on Dec. 2 and extensive power cuts that left thousands without electricity last month. Overnight attacks also targeted the western Rivne region, said its governor, Oleksandr Koval. (MT/AFP, 12.03.24)
• On Dec. 3, Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting in the area. Geolocated footage published on Dec. 2 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in southern Darino (southeast of Korenevo). Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in Novoivanovka (southeast of Korenevo) and near Malaya Loknya (north of Sudzha). (ISW, 12.03.24)
• On Dec. 4, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Ukrainian Defense Forces regained control of Novyi Komar. The Russian forces occupied Blahodatne and advanced in Kostiantynopolske, Sukhi Yaly, Stari Terny, Chasovyi Yar, Novopustyntsi, Yelizavetivka, near Pushkino, Zorya and Shevchenko. (RM, 12.06.24)
• On Dec. 4, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said that a Ukrainian drone attack on Grozny damaged the premises of a special police unit fighting in Ukraine and also injured civilians, the second such attack on the North Caucasus region. (MT/AFP, 12.05.24)
• On Dec. 5, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Novopusynka, Stari Terny, Illinka, Novodmytrivka, and advanced in Kurakhove, Romanivka and near Uspenivka. (RM, 12.06.24)
• On Dec. 5, the British Ministry of Defense (UK MoD), citing data from the Ukrainian General Staff, reported that the average daily Russian personnel casualties reached a new all-time high of 1,523 casualties per day in November 2024. (ISW, 12.06.24)
• On Dec. 6, Russia claimed its forces had captured a village near the embattled supply hub of Pokrovsk and another near the industrial town of Kurakhove, gaining ground in two key areas of the east Ukraine front line. Russian army units "liberated the settlements" of Sukhi Yaly and Pustynka in the eastern Donetsk region, Moscow's Defense Ministry said. Sukhi Yaly is about 13 kilometers southwest of Kurakhove, a strategic industrial town on the banks of a reservoir that Moscow is trying to encircle. Pustynka lies just south of Pokrovsk, an embattled logistics hub at the intersection of rail and road routes supplying Ukrainian troops across the front line. (MT/AFP, 12.06.24)
• On Dec. 6, the Russian military reported that Ukraine launched aerial and seaborne drones on the Russian-controlled Crimean port city of Kerch and the bridge connecting the Moscow-occupied peninsula with Russia was closed, local Telegram channels reported. According to the channel Krymskiy Veter, explosions explosions were heard in the area of the Zaliv shipyard. (RFE/RL, 12.06.24, MT/AFP, 12.06.24)
• On Dec. 6, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky outlined the main tasks for the Ukrainian troops in the Kursk direction. "Now our main task is to strengthen the resilience of the defense, inflict maximum losses on the enemy, prepare reserves, ensure an uninterrupted supply of ammunition and other material and technical resources to units and subdivisions," Syrsky said. (Korrespondent.net, 12.06.24)
• More Ukrainian soldiers have deserted in the first 10 months of this year than in the previous two years of the war. Ukrainian prosecutors opened 60,000 cases between January and October this year against soldiers for abandoning their positions, almost twice as many as they initiated in 2022 and 2023 combined. (FT, 12.01.24)
• The U.S. has pressed Ukraine to lower its military recruitment age to 18 to address a severe shortage of manpower that has weakened its position on the battlefield and led to the fastest Russian gains in two years. (FT, 11.28.24) That Ukraine's policy of exempting younger men from conscription is a major problem has been clear for a while. Multiple authors, including RM staff, were pointing out as long as a year ago that the average age of Ukrainian soldiers was already past 40 and that could be a problem.
  • U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken believes that the Ukrainian authorities will have to make “difficult decisions” about further mobilization to counter the Russian invasion. He said this at a press conference in Brussels, where the NATO Foreign Ministers’ Summit was taking place. (Meduza, 12.04.24)
  • The United States is ready to take over the training of new Ukrainian soldiers and provide them with the necessary weapons if Ukraine changes its mobilization policy. This was announced by the speaker of the U.S. Department of State Matthew Miller during a meeting with journalists. (Istories, 12.04.24)
  • A senior U.S. administration official on Dec. 4 said Kyiv needed to drop the minimum conscription age from 25 to help withstand Russia’s offensive. “The simple truth is that Ukraine is not currently mobilizing or training enough soldiers to replace their battlefield losses while keeping pace with Russia’s growing military,” the senior official said. Ukraine has said it needs 160,000 soldiers to fill out its ranks, which the U.S. sees as “on the low end,” the official said. (FT, 11.28.24)
• Zelenskyy communications adviser Dmytro Lytvin wrote on X: "It doesn't make sense to see calls for Ukraine to lower the [mobilization] age, presumably in order to draft more people, when we can see that previously announced equipment is not arriving on time. Because of these delays, Ukraine lacks weapons to equip already mobilized soldiers." (WP, 11.28.24)
  • Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi said Dec. 5 that Kyiv has discussed lowering the conscription age with its allies, according to the outlet NV.ua. “Yes, we have discussed this, and I would say Ukraine often initiates these conversations, usually during our negotiations. We keep our partners informed about the dynamics of mobilization in Ukraine,” Tykhyi said. (Meduza, 11.29.24)
• Ukraine opened nearly 96,000 criminal cases against servicemen who abandoned their positions since Russia’s invasion, according to data from the prosecutor general’s office. That represents a sixfold increase over the past two years, and most of the cases were opened this year. (Bloomberg, 12.06.24)
• The U.K. Ministry of Defense announced 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been trained in Operation Interflex. (UKMOD, X account, 12.06.24)
• Ukraine now observes 1,000 Russian drones in every 24-hour period, says an insider. That has made some sections of the front lines, for example around Siversk in Luhansk province, practically no-go areas for humans. Drones are now responsible for a majority of battlefield losses, overtaking artillery, according to Ukrainian sources. (The Economist, 12.03.24)
• Ukraine’s FPV “interceptor” drones have now taken out more than 850 Russian surveillance drones in the air. (The Economist, 12.02.24)
• Data from the battlefield suggest that the hit rate for Ukraine’s AI-guided drones is currently above 80%. (The Economist, 12.02.24)
• Ukrainian military expert Petro Chernyk told Ukrainian military-focused outlet ArmyInform on Dec. 2 that Russia has increased the production of Shahed drone airframes while continuing to rely on Iranian or Chinese imports for other drone components. This dynamic is reflected in the composition of the strike packages that Russia launched at Ukraine between October and November 2024, as it has become more common for Russian forces to launch between 80 to 100 (or more) Shahed and decoy drones as part of their larger strike package. (ISW, 12.02.24)
• The recruitment of military personnel under contract with the Russian Armed Forces in the third quarter of 2024 decreased compared to the second quarter. This follows from the Report on the execution of the federal budget, published on the Unified Portal of the Budget System. In total, by Oct. 1, 48.56 billion rubles were spent on one-time payments from the federal budget to military personnel serving under contract. This is 16.14 billion more than according to the results of the first half of the year. In the previous, second quarter, the amount of payments was 18.1 billion. Most of them—47.4 billion—go to the army, and only about 1.13 billion to the National Guard. (Meduza, 12.04.24)
• The Russian army lost 700,000 people killed and wounded in Ukraine, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said at a press conference during a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels. (Istories, 12.03.24)
• The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in the Russia-Ukraine conflict reached a new monthly war high during November 2024. The average daily loss rate was 1,523, according to Ukrainian General Staff reporting. This is the third straight month that Russian Forces have sustained new war high average daily losses. Nov. 28 also saw a new war high of 2,030 losses in a single day, the first time more than 2,000 have been reported. (UKMOD, X account, 12.05.24)
• The Russian military is redeploying wounded soldiers to the front lines in Ukraine by force before they can complete medical treatment, Telegram channel Ostorozhno, Novosti reported this week. (MT/AFP, 12.06.24)
• The Russian Defense Ministry has received 48,000 applications for DNA testing from relatives of Russian soldiers who went missing in the war in Ukraine. This was announced at a roundtable in the State Duma by Deputy Defense Minister and head of the state foundation "Defenders of the Fatherland" Anna Tsivileva, who is Vladimir Putin's cousin. (Meduza, 12.04.24)
• The share of Russians who support Russia’s war in Ukraine went from 76% in October to 77% in November, according to Levada’s Nov. 21-27 poll.  The share of Russians who believe Russia’s “special military operation” is proceeding successfully went from 60% in September to 70% in November. The same period saw the share of those who favor peace talks over continuation of the war rise from 55% to 57%. (RM, 12.04.24)
• A plurality of Americans (41%) believes Russia is currently winning the war in Ukraine, and only 24% think Ukraine is winning, according to the 2024 Reagan National Defense Survey, conducted in November 2024. Nearly a quarter (22%) believe neither side is winning. (Ronald Reagan Institute, 12.05.24)
• On the Ukraine war’s outcomes, 33% of Americans predict Russia will take over some Ukrainian territory, while 26% think the war will drag on indefinitely, according to the 2024 Reagan National Defense Survey, conducted in November 2024. Fewer Americans believe Ukraine will fully expel Russia (17%) or that Russia will take over the entire country (14%). (Ronald Reagan Institute, 12.05.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• The United States on Dec. 2 announced a new $725 million military aid package for Ukraine that includes another shipment of landmines and ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and other artillery systems, Stinger missiles and drones. The United States announced a first shipment of land mines last month in a move that U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said was necessary because Russian forces were using dismounted infantry units instead of vehicles to lead their advances. (RFE/RL, 12.02.24)
  • More than half of the military aid that Ukraine receives comes from the United States, which has sent more than $61 billion in weapons and equipment since the full-scale war began in February 2022. (NYT, 12.03.24)
  • The Biden administration is engaged in an 11th-hour scramble to provide Ukraine with billions of dollars in additional weaponry. (WP, 12.02.24)
  • Both Vice President-elect JD Vance and Trump confidant Elon Musk have voiced skepticism about continued U.S. aid to Ukraine. (WP, 12.02.24)
    • Kyiv hopes to convince Trump that Ukraine is not a charity case but a cost-effective economic and geostrategic opportunity that will ultimately enrich and secure the United States and its interests. Ukraine hopes that by embracing Trump's transactional approach to diplomacy - including offering American companies lucrative business opportunities - the new president will help ward off Russia's advance. (WP, 11.28.24)
    • "The first weapons that Ukraine received from the United States came from a president who hates Ukraine," said Dmytro Kuleba, who served as Ukraine's foreign minister until September. (WP, 11.28.24)
• National security adviser Jake Sullivan met with the head of the office of the Ukrainian president Andriy Yermak for more than an hour on Dec. 5, committing to provide Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of additional artillery rounds, thousands of rockets and hundreds of armored vehicles by mid-January, according to the briefing shared with the Guardian. These meetings carry heightened urgency, particularly after House speaker Mike Johnson blocked a vote on $24bn in additional aid to Ukraine. (The Guardian, 12.05.24)
• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the alliance was "building the bridge" to membership for Ukraine but the most urgent issue was providing Kyiv with more arms to repel Russian forces as Putin was not interested in peace. Rutte welcomed new military aid packages for Ukraine from the U.S., Germany, Sweden, Estonia, Lithuania and Norway. (Reuters, 12.03.24) 
• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the Social Democrat incumbent, and his rival Friedrich Merz, leader of the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU), have both put the war at the heart of their campaigns ahead of snap elections in February. Last weekend Scholz accused Merz of “playing Russian roulette with Germany’s security” by issuing ultimatums to Moscow, while Merz said it was in the Social Democrats’ “DNA to mobilize fears of war.” (FT, 12.06.24)
  • Scholz has once again spoken out against the idea of transferring long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. And he criticized Merz, who does not rule out the transfer of missiles if he heads the government. "All I can say is: be careful! You can't play ‘Russian roulette’ with Germany's security," the Chancellor said. (RBC.ua, 11.30.24)
  • Scholz said during his speech in the Bundestag on Dec. 4 that sending German soldiers to Ukraine is impossible. (Meduza, 12.04.24)
  • Scholz visited Kyiv on Dec. 2, vowing to deliver hundreds of millions of euros in additional weapons for Ukraine's defense this month, with questions mounting among Kyiv's allies and signs of a possible diplomatic shift around the 3-year-old full-scale Russian invasion. (RFE/RL, 12.02.24)
• Americans still favor sending U.S. weapons to Ukraine by a 20-point margin (55% to 35%), although this number has declined slightly from 59% last year, according to the 2024 Reagan National Defense Survey, conducted in November 2024. Major partisan differences divide this issue: 74% of Harris voters support aid, compared to 42% of Trump voters. The most common reason for opposing aid is the view that the conflict does not directly concern the U.S. (33%). Among those opposed for this reason, 31% would be more likely to support assistance if reminded about the risk to NATO countries, bringing America into a war. (Ronald Reagan Institute, 12.05.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• U.S. president-elect Donald Trump on Nov. 30 threatened tariffs of 100% against the so-called BRICS countries unless their governments agree not to create a new currency as an alternative to the U.S. dollar. “The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER,” Trump wrote in a post to his Truth Social platform. (FT, 12.01.24) For China, whose exports to the U.S., according to the U.S. census bureau, totaled $43,074 million in September 2024, implementation of a 100% tariff would cause serious problems. For Russia, whose exports to the U.S. totaled $168.1 million in September 2024, not so much. Also, if and when deciding whether to slap a 100% tariff on Russia, Trump would have to keep in mind the impact it would have on American consumers, e.g. Russia has been supplying 20% of the U.S. reactor fleet's nuclear fuel, according to the Atlantic Council. These supplies are diminishing as Russia is imposing restrictions.
• The U.S. Treasury Department has announced sanctions against five individuals and four entities linked to the TGR Group, which it described as a “sprawling international network” that has helped members of Russia’s elite evade sanctions. (Meduza, 12.05.24)
• India has sharply reduced orders for defense equipment with Russia and is now buying more from Western suppliers, officials said. Two warships and batteries for an anti-missile shield, which were ordered prior to the war in Ukraine, are the only outstanding items New Delhi has yet to receive from Moscow. (Bloomberg, 12.03.24)
• To maintain industrial operations, Russian companies need to transition 837 business processes to domestic software, Vedomosti recently reported, citing a mid-November presentation by Ilya Massukh, head of the Competence Center for Import Substitution in the Information-Computer Technologies Field. Yet, for 412 of these processes, no Russian software exists. Even where alternatives are available, many fail to match the functionality of Western products and are in need of improvements. The agricultural sector faces the steepest challenges, with no domestic solutions for 159 processes. (Meduza, 12.03.24)
• DBS Group Holdings Ltd. has beefed up its wealth management team to cater to rich Russians at a time when many global rivals are staying away from the business amid concerns over widening sanction risks. Singapore’s biggest lender hired two people in recent months, expanding the number of Russian-speaking private bankers in the city-state to at least nine, according to public records. (Bloomberg, 12.02.24)
• A London-based businessman won a Ukrainian state contract to help defend a key power plant from Russian attacks while secretly helping Moscow’s intelligence services to launder money and evade sanctions, according to investigators and procurement records. Andrejs Bradens, a Latvian national living in London and self-described “international entrepreneur,” also worked with companies that helped Moscow procure sanctioned electronics during its invasion of Ukraine. (FT, 12.05.24)
• Putin has signed a decree postponing the 2024 World Friendship Games until further notice. The decree cites the postponement as necessary to “protect the rights of athletes and sports organizations to free access to international sporting activities.” (Meduza, 12.03.24)
• Against the backdrop of several Russian billionaires being stripped of their Cypriot citizenship due to Russia's war against Ukraine, a number of people from Putin's inner circle will retain their so-called "golden passports." Among them are Putin's former classmate Nikolai Egorov and relatives of top managers of Russian Railways Sergei Toni and Vladimir Yakunin. Earlier Cypriot authorities reportedly revoked citizenship for a number of foreigners, including Russian billionaires Oleg Deripaska, Alexey Kuzmichev, Mikhail Gutseriev, Vadim Moshkovich, as well as the former owner of Probusinessbank, Alexander Zheleznyak. (Korrespondent.net, 12.06.24)
• Representatives of European Union countries failed on Dec. 6 to approve a 15th package of sanctions on Russia, which included an extension for the Czech Republic to import Russian oil-based products coming mainly through Slovakia, diplomats said. (Reuters, 12.06.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please also see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• Advisers to Trump are floating proposals to end the Ukraine war that would cede large parts of the country to Russia for the foreseeable future, according to a Reuters analysis of their statements and interviews with several people close to the U.S. president-elect. The proposals by three key advisers, including Trump's incoming Russia-Ukraine envoy, retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, share some elements, including taking NATO membership for Ukraine off the table. Trump's advisers would try forcing Moscow and Kyiv into negotiations with carrots and sticks, including halting military aid to Kyiv unless it agrees to talk but boosting assistance if Putin refuses. (Reuters, 12.04.24)
  • Kellogg has pushed a proposal to end the war between the two countries through Ukraine ceding land to Russia. "The United States would continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen its defenses to ensure Russia will make no further advances and will not attack again after a cease-fire or peace agreement," Kellogg and Fleitz state in the plan. But future U.S. military aid will require Ukraine to participate in peace talks with Russia, according to the report. To convince Putin to join peace talks, "President Biden and other NATO leaders should offer to put off NATO membership for Ukraine for an extended period in exchange for a comprehensive and verifiable peace deal with security guarantees," the pair wrote. (Axios, 11.28.24)
  • Just days before his nomination, Kellogg told Fox News that Washington should call Russia’s bluff in response to Putin’s recent ballistic missile strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro and threats of further escalation. “[Putin] used [the nuclear-capable missile] for psychological reasons,” Kellogg said. “He didn’t use it because it was militarily effective . . . but because he is kind of saying to the West ‘see what I can do?’” Rather than “back off,” he added, the U.S. and Western allies should “lean in, because Putin will not start a nuclear war in Europe.” (FT, 12.02.24)
  • Fred Fleitz, another former Trump adviser who reportedly helped draft the plan, emphasized to Reuters that the proposal wouldn’t necessarily require Ukraine to formally cede territory. It would, however, entail freezing the conflict along the current front lines, with the understanding that territorial claims would be addressed diplomatically in the future—and likely not anytime soon. (Meduza, 11.29.24)
  • The Kellogg plan, which hinges on increasing aid for Ukraine if Putin does not come to the table, could face blowback in Congress, where some of Trump's closest allies oppose additional military aid for the Eastern European nation. (Reuters, 12.04.24)
• Western-sanctioned Russian tycoon and Kremlin confidant Konstantin Malofeyev said Putin was likely to reject a peace plan proposal by Kellogg. Malofeyev said Trump could only end the conflict if he reversed Washington’s decision on the use of advanced long-range weapons and removed Zelenskyy from office, then agreed to meet Putin and “discuss all the issues of the global order at the highest level.” (FT, 12.02.24, MT/AFP, 12.03.24) 
  • There was a degree of cautious optimism in Kyiv to Trump’s naming of Kellogg as special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, because of the general's past expressions of support for Kyiv. Kellogg argued in a Fox News interview last week that President Joe Biden's recent approval for Ukraine to use U.S.-provided longer-range missiles for deeper strikes into Russia — something Biden had denied Ukraine for months despite its pleas — was a positive development and has "actually given Trump more leverage." (WP, 11.28.24)
• “We need to bring this to a responsible end,” Trump’s incoming national-security adviser, Mike Waltz, said of the war. Waltz spoke of a possible armistice and the need to “get ahead of this escalation ladder, rather than responding to it.” (The New Yorker, 11.27.24)
• Trump advisers have discussed peace plans that would recognize Russia's seizure of roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory and that would close the door, for now, on Kyiv's bid to join NATO. (WSJ, 12.04.24)
• Zelenskyy, facing manpower shortages and growing territorial losses, has indicated that he may be open to negotiations. While still intent on NATO membership, he said this week that Ukraine must find diplomatic solutions to regaining some of its occupied territories. Zelenskyy suggested that putting territory currently controlled by his government "under the NATO umbrella" would stop the "hot phase" of the war. (Reuters, 12.04.24, Reuters, 12.03.24)
  • Zelenskyy is subtly shifting his rhetoric about ending the war with Russia, suggesting that Ukraine is open to stopping the fight to regain Russian-occupied territory in exchange for membership in NATO. In a series of interviews and public statements over the past week, Zelenskyy has sought to show that he is prepared to negotiate an end to the conflict—something that Trump repeatedly called for on the campaign trail. For most of the war, Zelenskyy had insisted that his country would keep fighting until it had reclaimed the roughly 20% of the country now under Moscow's control. (WSJ, 12.03.24)
  • On Dec. 1, Zelenskyy admitted that Ukraine's army couldn't liberate some of the estimated 20% of its territory that Russia occupies, including Crimea. ''Our army lacks the strength to do that,'' Zelenskyy told the Japanese news agency, Kyodo News. (NYT, 12.04.24)
• Ukrainian officials are visiting the United States this week to seek continued American support, and met with members of Trump’s transition team to appeal to a president-elect who has pledged to bring a quick end to Ukraine’s war with Russia. Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s powerful chief of staff, had made the visit for meetings that are “important for establishing relations, including with the leaders of the new administration.” Yermak and Ukraine’s ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova, met on Capitol Hill on Dec. 4 with JD Vance, the vice president-elect, and Rep. Mike Waltz. Also present was a representative for Keith Kellogg. Yulia Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s first deputy prime minister, was also in the U.S. this week. The more than hour-long meeting, held in Washington primarily focused on the Ukrainians’ battlefield assessment of where things stand now and where they expect them to stand when the Trump team takes office. Yermak also met with the incoming White House chief of staff, Susie Wiles. (NYT, 12.05.24, WSJ, 12.05.24, Bloomberg, 12.05.24, CNN, 12.05.24)
  • Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Dec. 3 that Kyiv would reject any security guarantees other than NATO membership. “We won’t accept any alternatives, surrogates or substitutes,” Sybiha wrote, in a letter to the 32 members of NATO. (WSJ, 12.05.24)
  • Ukraine’s top diplomat warned against the emergence of “gray zones” in which Russia could cement its influence as he reinforced Kyiv’s refusal to consider territorial concessions. “We need to eliminate gray zones, because Russia turns them into zones of influence,” Sybiha said in Malta Dec. 5 at a meeting of the OSCE. (Bloomberg, 12.05.24)
  • Ukraine has again called for membership in NATO, saying that only joining the alliance in full would guarantee its future security. "We are convinced that the only such real guarantee of security for Ukraine, as well as a deterrent factor for further Russian aggression against Ukraine and other states, is only Ukraine's full membership in NATO," Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said in a statement released ahead of a Dec. 3 meeting of the alliance's foreign ministers in Brussels. (RFE/RL, 12.03.24)
• NATO’s new secretary-general has warned Trump that the U.S. would face a “dire threat” from China, Iran and North Korea if Ukraine is pushed to sign a peace deal on terms that are favorable to Moscow. “The most important thing now is to make sure that whenever Zelenskyy decides to get into peace talks, that he can do this from a position of strength,” Rutte said. “That for me is now priority number one.” He suggested that Ukraine should put off any peace talks with Russia until Western allies can send enough military aid to help Kyiv push ahead on the battlefield and garner a stronger negotiating position. (NYT, 12.04.24, FT, 12.03.24)
  • Senior NATO officials said Dec. 3 that Putin appears uninterested in negotiating peace while he is gaining ground — unless the deal being discussed is to his advantage. “It’s not in our interest, none of us, if Putin wins this war,” Adm. Rob Bauer of the Netherlands, NATO’s top military officer, said in a brief interview. “Wars can change — and the situation can change, based on what we do.” (NYT, 12.03.24)
  • "We really don't think that Putin is serious about negotiations right now," one senior NATO official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "I think Vladimir Putin is willing to talk, but I think so long as he believes that he is winning, then he doesn't have a lot of incentive to negotiate." (WP, 12.03.24)
• Ukraine’s allies have shifted their focus from seeking a victory to trying to put Zelenskyy in the best position to counter Russian advances or negotiate a possible ceasefire, people familiar with the matter said. For now, that means NATO is redoubling efforts to rush more weapons to the war-torn country as Kyiv forces are slowly losing ground, raising the specter the eventual truce may freeze the conflict with swathes of Ukraine under occupation by  Putin’s troops. (Bloomberg, 12.04.24)
• German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that NATO membership for Ukraine could be part of a potential peace deal with Russia, which could also include conceding some occupied Ukrainian territory. (Bloomberg, 12.03.24)
• If a ceasefire agreement is reached, European countries may send their troops to Ukraine to ensure its observance. As NATO sources told Radio Liberty, one option being discussed is the deployment of French and British troops on the demarcation line to monitor the ceasefire. (Meduza, 12.03.24)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Tucker Carlson: “We strongly prefer a peaceful solution through negotiations on the basis of respecting the legitimate security interest of Russia, and on the basis of respecting the people who live in Ukraine, who still live in Ukraine being Russians, and their basic human rights, language rights, religious rights, have been exterminated by a series of legislation passed by the Ukrainian parliament.” (Russian Foreign Ministry, 12.06.24)
• Lavrov told Tucker Carlson: “When President Putin spoke in this Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the 14th of June he once again reiterated that we were ready to negotiate on the basis of the principles which were agreed in Istanbul and rejected by Boris Johnson, according to the statement of the head of the Ukrainian delegation. The key principle is non-bloc status for Ukraine. And we would be ready to be part of the group of countries who would provide collective security guarantees to Ukraine. … No NATO. Absolutely. No military bases, no military exercises on Ukrainian soil with the participation of foreign troops.” (Russian Foreign Ministry, 12.06.24)
• Fifty-nine percent support Ukraine negotiating for peace, even if it requires conceding some territory to Russia, according to the 2024 Reagan National Defense Survey, conducted in November 2024. Concerns about the war’s broader implications remain high, with 78% fearing expansion into NATO countries and 75% worried about emboldening other authoritarian regimes to invade democratic neighbors. Seventy-nine percent of Americans are concerned about a Russian attack against a NATO member. (Ronald Reagan Institute, 12.05.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Putin said at the restricted attendance meeting of the CSTO in Kazakhstan: “As far as the production of relevant missile systems and relevant equipment is concerned, Russia has 10 times more of them than the combined output of all NATO countries. Next year, we will increase the production by another 25 to 30%.” (Kremlin.ru, 11.28.24)
• "Someone says from the outside: 'We need to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia.' And what does that mean? Destroy it," Putin said Dec. 3. (Kommersant, 12.03.24)
• A Russian ship fired flares at a German armed forces helicopter in the Baltic Sea. This was reported by the German agency DPA, citing sources; the agency's report is cited by Die Welt. According to the agency, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock mentioned the incident on the sidelines of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels. (Meduza, 12.04.24)
• European Union countries are expected to increase their combined defense spending to 326 billion euros ($342.6 billion) this year, a development likely to boost sales among arms contractors. (WSJ, 12.04.24)
• The European Union’s defense chief floated a new joint borrowing mechanism for military spending as part of the bloc’s plan to seek some €500 billion ($527 billion) for security over the next decade. Andrius Kubilius, the EU’s new defense commissioner, told European lawmakers that joint spending, to be disbursed as loans to member states, could stand in as “front-loading,” then reimbursed as members meet a NATO target to spend 2% of gross domestic product on defense. (Bloomberg, 12.05.24)
• Romania’s constitutional court has annulled last month’s first round of presidential elections after evidence that the leading candidate benefited from Russian intervention. (FT, 12.06.24)
  • The European Union has ordered TikTok to freeze all its data amid reports that the Chinese-owned social platform had been instrumental in implementing a Moscow-orchestrated campaign to influence Romania's presidential and parliamentary elections. (RFE/RL, 12.05.24)
  • Russia denied on Dec. 5 it was interfering in Romania's elections. (MT/AFP, 12.06.24)
• A Russian victory in Ukraine would “embolden” Moscow’s allies and endanger U.S. security, British spy chief Richard Moore said, calling for enduring support for Kyiv as Trump prepares to take office. “If Putin is allowed to succeed in reducing Ukraine to a vassal state, he will not stop there,” Moore said in Paris Nov. 29. “Our security — British, French, European and transatlantic — would be jeopardized.” Moore, who heads the U.K. foreign intelligence service MI6, said his agency and its French counterpart DGSE were working to prevent a dangerous escalation by “calibrating the risk” of Putin’s “mix of bluster and aggression.” (FT, 11.29.24)
• British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will be invited to meet EU leaders to discuss European security as Brussels seeks closer ties with the U.K., in a significant post-Brexit move. The British prime minister will be asked to dine with the leaders of the 27 member states at an informal retreat in Belgium on Feb. 3 by António Costa, incoming president of the European Council, two EU officials said. (FT, 11.28.24)
• Trump will travel to France on Dec. 7 for the reopening of the historic Notre-Dame Cathedral five years after it was ravaged by a fire, his first foreign trip since last month’s election and a symbol of how quickly global leaders are turning the page on the Biden presidency. (WSJ, 12.03.24)
• The share of Russians who believe the Ukraine war could escalate into an armed conflict between Russia and NATO went from 58% in June to 56% in November, according to Levada. (RM, 12.04.24.)
• More than 8 in 10 American are concerned about the growing collaboration between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, with about 50% expressing extreme concern and similar levels of alarm among both Trump and Harris voters, according to the 2024 Reagan National Defense Survey, conducted in November 2024. (Ronald Reagan Institute, 12.05.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• An interagency group, set up by China in the months following the full-scale invasion, has studied the impact of sanctions on Russia and produced reports regularly for the country's leadership, according to people familiar with the matter. The goal is to draw lessons about how to mitigate them, particularly in case a conflict over Taiwan prompts the U.S. and its allies to impose similar penalties on China, the people said. As part of the effort, Chinese officials periodically visit Moscow to meet with the Russian Central Bank, the Finance Ministry and other agencies involved in countering sanctions, the people said. (WSJ, 12.01.24)
• A Chinese company that owns a California manufacturing plant has sent hundreds of shipments of restricted dual-use electronics to Russia since the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine, including to sanctioned companies with ties to the Russian military. At least one component manufactured by the company, Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Company Limited, was found in a Russian weapons guidance system recovered from the battlefield in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 12.02.24)
• German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Dec. 2 warned her Chinese counterpart that Beijing's support for Russia would "impact" ties, according to her office. Germany's top diplomat met in Beijing with her counterpart Wang Yi for a "strategic dialogue," as Berlin seeks to build better ties with China while engaging on key differences. Baerbock told Wang that "increasing Chinese support for Russia's war against Ukraine has an impact on our relations," according to a readout by the German Foreign Ministry." (RFE/RL, 12.02.24)
• The prime ministers of Finland and Sweden both told the Financial Times it was too early to reach conclusions on who caused the damage to Finnish-German and Swedish-Lithuanian data cables and why. A joint Finnish and Swedish investigation is under way. But Petteri Orpo, the Finnish prime minister, said: “We have seen that behind Russia there is more and more China. I am concerned. I hope they have heard Europe’s message. It’s not good for relations between Europe and China if they increase their support to Russia to fight against Ukraine.” (FT, 11.28.24)
• Almost half (49%) of Americans believe China poses the greatest threat to the U.S., and 26% name Russia, according to the 2024 Reagan National Defense Survey, conducted in November 2024. Only 15% of Trump voters named Russia, while 40% of Harris voters did. (Ronald Reagan Institute, 12.05.24) 

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Gen. Valery V. Gerasimov, chief of RF General Staff, called Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, last week and talked about how to manage escalation concerns between the two countries, according to defense and military officials. The rare phone call took place last Dec. 4, the day before Thanksgiving and just six days after Russia launched a new, nuclear-capable, intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine that Mr. Putin said was in response to Ukraine’s use of American and British weapons to strike deeper into Russia. During the call, Gerasimov told Brown that the Oreshnik ballistic missile launch had been planned long before the Biden administration agreed to allow Ukraine to use American ATACMS to strike deeper into Russia, officials said. Though the Oreshnik missile carried only conventional warheads, using it signaled that Russia could strike with nuclear weapons if it chose. The missile struck a Ukraine weapons facility in Dnipro. Capt. Jereal Dorsey, a spokesman for General Brown, said the two men “discussed a number of global and regional security issues, to include the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.” (NYT, 12.04.24)
• On Nov. 28, Putin said at the restricted attendance meeting of the CSTO in Kazakhstan that the temperature of the impact elements of the Oreshnik system reaches 4,000 degrees Celsius—nearing the surface temperature of the sun, which is around 5,500–6,000 degrees. “Consequently, everything within the explosion’s epicenter is reduced to fractions, elementary particles, essentially turning to dust,” he said. “Military and technical experts note that when used in a concentrated, massive strike—using several Oreshnik missiles simultaneously—the resulting impact is comparable in power to that of a nuclear weapon,” he said. “The Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Russian Army are currently identifying targets for strikes within Ukraine,” he added. (Kremlin.ru, 11.28.24)
  • After Russia's launch last week of its Oreshnik intermediate-range missile, state-owned propaganda outlet RT aired a video graphic depicting the missile's flight times to major European capitals: 20 minutes to London and Paris, 15 minutes to Berlin and 12 minutes to Warsaw. (WP, 11.30.24)
  • Four Russian officials told The Moscow Times that the Oreshnik strike and its ensuing media coverage were carefully crafted with the involvement of officials, military personnel, intelligence agencies and Kremlin PR experts. "There were brainstorming sessions about how to respond and put the Americans and the British in their place for allowing Zelenskyy to use long-range weapons. And how to scare Berlin and other Europeans into submission," said one Russian official. (MT/AFP, 12.03.24)
• On Nov. 28, Putin took questions from journalists while in Kazakhstan. When asked to comment on Oreshnik he said according to the Kremlin transcription: “Concerning strike capabilities, I have already addressed this. If we deploy multiple such systems simultaneously in a single strike—say, two, three, or four systems—it would be comparable in force to the use of nuclear weapons, albeit they are not nuclear. This is because they are: a) high-precision; b) not equipped with a nuclear explosive device, thus they do not cause environmental contamination. Yet, the force would be comparable.” (RM, 11.28.24)
• On Nov. 28, Putin took questions from journalists while in Kazakhstan. According to the Kremlin’s transcript, he was asked to comment on Western media reports allegedly publishing calls by officials in U.S. and Europe to “return” nuclear weapons to Kyiv’s possession. Putin said in response: “In this case we will use all—and I want to stress it—all weapons Russia has, all of them. We will not let this happen. This is the first point. Secondly, such statements can only be made by irresponsible individuals who are not accountable for anything and do not feel any burden of responsibility for the destiny of their countries and the entire world. And thirdly, if someone transfers something officially, that will constitute a violation of all assumed commitments regarding non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. And we will not let this happen in Ukraine itself, we will be watching every step being taken there... everything or nearly everything Soviet Ukraine could take pride in has been lost. Thus it will be next to impossible to do it from scratch. What could be done is something dirty, a dirty bomb by scrambling up nuclear power plants’ waste. But even in this case the response will be absolutely adequate to the threats to the Russian Federation.” (RM, 11.28.24) 
• On Dec. 6, Putin and Alexander Lukashenko signed a treaty in Minsk on security guarantees between Russia and Belarus within the framework of the Union State. Before signing the document, Putin said that the agreement defines mutual obligations on defense, on protecting the sovereignty, independence and constitutional order of Russia and Belarus, on ensuring the integrity and inviolability of the territory and external border of the Union State. According to Putin, "all available forces and means" can be used to solve these problems. "This also includes Russian tactical nuclear weapons, located on the territory of the republic at the suggestion of the President of Belarus," he added. Lukashenko asked Putin to deploy Oreshnik in Belarus. Putin responded by calling this “possible.” (Meduza, 12.06.24)
• The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to fire American weapons deeper into Russia has not increased the risk of a nuclear attack, which is unlikely, despite Putin's increasingly bellicose statements, five sources familiar with U.S. intelligence told Reuters. The assessments were consistent: The ATACMs weren’t going to change Russia’s nuclear calculus," said one congressional aide briefed on the intelligence, referring to American missiles with a range of up to 190 miles (306 km). One of the five U.S. officials said while Washington assessed that Russia would not seek to escalate with its nuclear forces, it would try to match what it views as U.S. escalation. The official said fielding the new missile was part of that effort. Also Russia is likely to expand a campaign of sabotage against European targets to increase pressure on the West over its support for Kyiv, said two senior officials, a lawmaker and two congressional aides briefed on the matter. (Reuters, 11.28.24)
• Lavrov on Dec. 5 warned that the new Cold War Moscow blames on the West risks turning into a “hot” East-West conflict, the state-run RIA Novosti news agency reported. In remarks to an OSCE council meeting in Malta, RIA Novosti quoted Lavrov as saying that the West was behind a “reincarnation of the Cold War, only now with a much greater risk of a transition to a hot stage.” This is Lavrov’s first visit to an EU member state since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. (MT/AFP, 12.05.24)
  • When asked Nov. 28 about “ongoing discourse in the United States regarding the potential transfer of nuclear weapons to Kyiv” Lavrov said: “We have our share of politicians who frequently speak about escalation. The decision rests with the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. I hold the hope that this is similarly the case in the United States.” (RF MFA, 11.29.24)
• [When asked: “What you're saying is American policy makers imagine there could be a nuclear exchange that doesn't directly affect the United States, and you're saying that's not true”:] Lavrov told Tucker Carlson: “That's what I said, yes. But professionals in deterrence, nuclear deterrence policy, they know very well that it's a very dangerous game. And to speak about limited exchange of nuclear strikes is an invitation to disaster, which we don't want to have.” (Russian Foreign Ministry, 12.06.24)
• Lavrov told Tucker Carlson: “I would call it hybrid war as well, but it is obvious that the Ukrainians would not be able to do what they're doing with long-range modern weapons without direct participation of the American servicemen. We don't want to aggravate the situation, but since ATACMS and other long-range weapons are being used against mainland Russia as it were, we are sending signals. We hope that the last one, a couple of weeks ago, the signal with the new weapon system called Oreshnik, was taken seriously.” (Russian Foreign Ministry, 12.06.24)
• Lavrov told Tucker Carlson: “We hate even to think about war with the United States, which will take nuclear character. Our military doctrine says that the most important thing is to avoid a nuclear war. And it was us, by the way, who initiated in January 2022 the message, the joint statement by the leaders of the five permanent members of the Security Council saying that we will do anything to avoid confrontation between us, acknowledging and respecting each other's security interests and concerns. This was our initiative.” (Russian Foreign Ministry, 12.06.24)
• Lavrov told Tucker Carlson: “The United States, and the allies of the United States who also provide this long-range weapons to the Kyiv regime, they must understand that we would be ready to use any means not to allow them to succeed in what they call strategic defeat of Russia. ... So the message which we wanted to send by testing in real action this hypersonic system is that we will be ready to do anything to defend our legitimate interests.” (Russian Foreign Ministry, 12.06.24)
• Konstantin Malofeyev, a Russian tycoon who is subject to western sanctions, argued that if the U.S. did not agree to roll back its support for Ukraine, Russia could fire a tactical nuclear weapon. “There will be a radiation zone nobody will ever go into in our lifetime,” he said. “And the war will be over.” (FT, 12.02.24)
• Putin says Russia might deploy Oreshnik IRBM on the territory of Belarus in the second half of 2025. (Status-6, X account, 12.06.24)
• Three-quarters of Americans (76%) worry Russia might use nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine, and 70% are concerned about Russia launching a thermonuclear attack against the U.S., up 10 points since 2021, according to the 2024 Reagan National Defense Survey, conducted in November 2024. (Ronald Reagan Institute, 12.05.24)
• As the Kremlin first threatened to liberalize conditions for use of Russian nuclear weapons and then did so, amending the Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence with Russia’s conflict with the West over Ukraine in mind, the common Russians appear to have followed that trend. The share of Russians who think use of nuclear weapons by Russia in the course of the Russian-Ukraine conflict is justified has been growing since at least April 2023 with the latest measurements showing the gap between them and those who oppose such use shrink to 6 percentage points, according to Levada. The share of Russians who think use of nuclear weapons by Russia in the course of the current conflict in Ukraine can be justified grew from 29% in April 2023 to 34% in June 2024 to 39% in November 2024. The share of those who believe such use cannot be justified decreases from 56% in April 2023 to 52% in June 2024 to 45% in November 2024. (RM, 12.05.24)

Counterterrorism:

• Russian authorities have arrested four suspected accomplices in the deadly concert hall attack near Moscow this spring, state-run media reported Dec. 4, citing anonymous sources. Four gunmen carried out the March 22 attack on Crocus City Hall, which left 145 people dead and more than 500 others wounded. Islamic State affiliate ISIS-K claimed responsibility, while Moscow also blamed Ukraine and the West for the deadliest attack in Russia in two decades. (MT/AFP, 12.05.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• On Dec. 2, Russia launched airstrikes in support of the Syrian army in an effort to stanch a major rebel advance that surprised and overwhelmed the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad late last week. The White Helmets, a civil defense group in Syria, said at least 12 civilians were killed Dec. 2, including children, and at least 42 others were wounded. (WSJ, 12.03.24)
• On Dec. 3, Russia's army said it had fired hypersonic missiles during naval and Air Force drills in the eastern Mediterranean that come as its ally Syria loses ground to Islamist rebels. The military said the number of Russian troops stationed in the region had been "increased" to take part in the exercises. Russia has been carrying out air strikes in recent days to try to counter a rebel offensive that has seen Assad's forces lose the second city of Aleppo. (MT/AFP, 12.03.24)
• On Dec. 3, Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed the need for diplomacy to resolve the conflict in northern Syria in a phone call to discuss the renewed fighting. Russia, Iran and Turkey are in "close contact" over the conflict in Syria, Moscow said. The foreign ministers of Russia, Iran, Turkey and Qatar could meet next week to address the recent escalation in Syria. (MT/AFP, 12.03.24, MT/AFP, 12.04.24) (RFE/RL, 12.03.24)
  • Kremlin officials expressed interest in using the Astana Process to respond to the situation. (ISW, 11.30.24)
• On Dec. 6, Assad was reported to have been desperate for Russian and Iranian help as rebel forces close in on the strategically important city of Homs, though a repeat of the 2015 rescue by his allies looks increasingly unlikely. After capturing Hama on Dec. 5, the rebels are now mere kilometers from Homs, the last major city on their path south to the capital, Damascus. Taking Homs could close the land route between Assad’s government and his Alawite sect’s Mediterranean strongholds, which are also home to a Russian naval base. A rebel commander said insurgents had taken control of a village 10 kilometers north of Homs, while pro-rebel media posted videos that claimed to show the insurgents entering the town of Al-Dar Al-Kabira only 5 kilometers away. "If Homs falls, I don't see how the regime can survive," said Jerome Drevon, senior analyst on jihad and modern conflict at the International Crisis Group. (Bloomberg, 12.06.24, FT, 12.06.24, WSJ, 12.06.24.)
• On Dec. 6, a U.S.-backed alliance led by Syrian Kurdish fighters captured the main city in eastern Syria and the main border crossing with Iraq on Dec. 6, taking effective control of Syria's vast eastern desert in two rapid moves. Two security sources based in eastern Syria said that by Dec. 6 afternoon the alliance, known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), had taken full control of the city of Deir el-Zor, the third city to fall out of Assad's control in a week. (Reuters, 12.06.24)
• On Dec. 6, Syrian and Russian warplanes targeted the rebels both north and south of Hama, the Syrian army said, claiming it had killed dozens of insurgent fighters. Russian air strikes reportedly attempted to slow the insurgents’ advance by striking the Al-Rastan bridge, which lies on the Homs-Hama road. (FT, 12.06.24)
• On Dec. 6, Russia’s embassy in Damascus has warned its citizens they may need to leave Syria as rebel forces approach the city of Homs. (FT, 12.06.24)
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reportedly replaced Lt. Gen. Sergei Kisel with Col. Gen. Alexander Chaiko, who will reprise his previous assignment as commander of the Russian Force Grouping in Syria, though it remains unclear how Russian operations in Syria may change. (ISW, 12.01.24)
• Russia doesn’t have a plan to save Assad and doesn’t see one emerging as long as the Syrian president’s army continues to abandon its positions, according to a person close to the Kremlin. (Status-6, X account, 12.06.24)

Cyber security/AI: 

• A Russian court sentenced a crime boss described by state media as the founder of dismantled darknet drug marketplace Hydra to life in prison on organized crime and drug charges. Founded in 2015, Hydra sold illegal drugs, stolen credit card data, counterfeit currency and fake identity documents. (MT/AFP, 12.02.24)
• Nebius, the artificial intelligence infrastructure group that was formed from Yandex’s operations outside Russia earlier this year, has raised $700 million from investors including chipmaker Nvidia to capitalize on exploding demand for AI data centers. The new equity financing, via a private placement, comes six weeks after trading in Nebius’ stock resumed on Nasdaq, following its split in July from Yandex, Russia’s biggest internet group. Other investors involved in the deal announced on Dec. 2 include Silicon Valley venture firm Accel. (FT, 12.03.24)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) spies on anti-war Russians with advanced Android spyware, the legal rights group Perviy Otdel said Dec. 4, citing a systems analyst who discovered the surveillance software on his phone. (MT/AFP, 12.04.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• The Kremlin’s oil revenues in November fell from a year earlier for a second consecutive month, spurred by lower prices for the nation’s crude. Russia’s oil-related taxes, a key source of financing for Russia’s war against Ukraine, generated 605.2 billion rubles ($5.8 billion) for the budget last month, down around 21% from a year ago, according to Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 12.04.24)
• The flow of Russian crude oil via the Druzhba pipeline into the Czech Republic has restarted, according to Orlen SA, a refinery operator. “The supplies have been restored this morning and crude oil from the Druzhba pipeline is flowing into the Czech Republic normally,” Orlen Unipetrol, a unit of the Polish parent and operator of the Litvinov and Unipetrol refineries, said in a statement. (Bloomberg, 12.06.24)
• On Nov. 21, America’s Treasury Department imposed new restrictions on more than four dozen Russian banks, including Gazprombank, the financial arm of the giant state gas firm. After Dec. 20, when the measures take full effect, European buyers of Russian gas will be forced to find workarounds involving either third-party banks or currencies other than the dollar, which will take time. (The Economist, 12.01.24)
  • Putin cancelled the requirement for international buyers of Russian gas to go through Gazprombank after the U.S. imposed sanctions on the lender last month. (FT, 12.05.24)
  • European natural gas prices extended this week’s loss after the Kremlin changed procedures to pay for Russian gas, easing concerns that flows to the region will be cut off. (Bloomberg, 12.06.24)
  • The European Union is pressing the U.S. to explore ways to mitigate U.S. sanctions on Russia’s Gazprombank, a financial institution key for keeping Russian natural gas flowing into the bloc. The discussions are ongoing even after Putin dropped a requirement that foreign buyers use only that bank when buying Russian gas, a move aimed at averting the impact of the restrictions. (Bloomberg, 12,06.24
• The German Attorney General's Office has made progress in the investigation into the Nord Stream gas pipeline bombings and identified two suspects, Attorney General Jens Rommel told Der Spiegel in an interview. "We have managed to identify two suspects. In my opinion, this is a success that was not initially expected," Rommel said. He did not disclose the names of the suspects, adding that he could not comment on the details of the investigation. (Meduza, 11.30.24)
• Kadri Simson, the outgoing EU energy commissioner, has warned against a deal to replace Russian gas piped through Ukraine by labelling the imports as Azerbaijani. (FT, 12.01.24)
• Hungary asked the U.S. for a waiver from recent sanctions so it can continue paying Russia for natural gas deliveries using Gazprombank. (Bloomberg, 12.04.24)
• Serbia is in talks with Russia to extend a natural gas supply contract that expires in March, and is targeting volumes similar to those under the current agreement with Gazprom PJSC. (Bloomberg, 12.06.24)

Climate change:

• Ottawa says its focus on the Arctic comes after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “has shaken the foundations” of international cooperation in the northern region. Citing growing interest by China and Russia in the Arctic as global warming makes the region more accessible, Canada on Dec. 6 said it would focus on building stronger alliances with other nations in the region, particularly the United States. (NYT, 12.06.24)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Trump is considering replacing Pete Hegseth—his current nominee to lead the Defense Department—with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, multiple outlets reported. (Axios, 12.04.24)
• The U.S. Department of Justice has charged 34-year-old Russian citizen Nomma Zarubina, who lives in New York, with collaborating with Russian intelligence services and providing false information about herself to the FBI.” (Meduza, 12.03.24)
• Media personality Tucker Carlson, an influential ally of President-elect Donald Trump, said he’d interviewed Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow, amid speculation over the incoming U.S. administration’s plans to rapidly end the war in Ukraine. Carlson said he’d met Lavrov to learn whether Trump’s election would “mean an end to this war,” in a video posted on the X social-media platform. He said he also wanted to know if Russia and the U.S. are “headed toward an unprecedented conflict” after President Joe Biden’s outgoing administration allowed Ukraine to use American long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia. “We are, unbeknownst to most Americans, in a hot war with Russia, an undeclared war,” Carlson said. “We are closer to nuclear war than in any time in history.” (Bloomberg, 12.04.24)
• Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's choice for director of national intelligence, is a regular consumer of content from the propaganda outlet Russia Today, three ex-aides told ABC News this week. (Meduza, 12.06.24)
• Americans overwhelmingly perceive Russia as an adversary by a 66-point margin (80% to 14%). Eighty-five percent express concern about Russia sponsoring cyberattacks against the U.S., and 79% express concern over Russian aid to Iran and other rogue regimes, according to the 2024 Reagan National Defense Survey, conducted in Nov. 2024. (Ronald Reagan Institute, 12.05.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The Putin administration held a four-day seminar last week for deputy governors to discuss a potential “victory narrative” for the war in Ukraine, Kommersant and Vedomosti reported on Dec. 2. According to the outlets’ sources, the entire leadership of Putin’s domestic politics team attended the event. One source told Kommersant that while various parts of Russian society hold differing views on the war, the Kremlin intends to focus its messaging on the “calm majority.” (Meduza, 12.02.24)
• Putin claimed, at the Russian state-owned bank VTB Bank's investment forum on Dec. 4, that the Russian economy will grow by 4% by the end of 2024 and that Russia's GDP grew by 4.1% from January to October 2024. Putin is likely attempting to posture economic stability despite reports that Russia may raise key interest rates to 25% in December 2024, after the Russian Central Bank already raised the key interest rate to 21% in October. (ISW, 12.04.24)
• Russian business outlet Kommersant, citing internal sources, reported on December 1 that Russian officials, including those from the Presidential Administration, have set the following goals for the leading United Russia party for the 2026 legislative elections: achieving 55 percent of voter turnout and obtaining 55 of the total votes; surpassing United Russia's 2021 election figures. (ISW, 12.02.24)
• The President of the Russian Federation signed the law "On the federal budget for 2025 and for the planning period of 2026-2027." According to the document, in 2025, the budget revenues of the Russian Federation are expected to be at the level of 40.3 trillion rubles (18.8% of GDP), expenses— 41.47 trillion rubles (19.3% of GDP). Thus, the budget deficit will be 1.17 trillion rubles. In 2026, budget revenues and expenditures are projected at 41.84 trillion rubles and 44.02 trillion rubles, respectively (deficit of 2.18 trillion rubles), in 2027—43.15 trillion rubles and 45.92 trillion rubles, respectively (deficit of 2.76 trillion rubles). The law assumes that in 2025, 13.5 trillion rubles (or 6.31% of Russia's GDP) will be allocated for military expenditures under the "National Defense" item. This is a record military expenditure in the modern history of Russia. In 2026–2027, military expenditures will be slightly lower: 12.8 trillion rubles and 13.1 trillion rubles, respectively. (Meduza, 12.01.24)
• Next year the Russian central bank is forecasting GDP growth of between 0.5% and 1.5%, well below this year’s 3% and last year’s 3.5%. (The Economist, 11.28.24)
  • Goldman Sachs expects Russia’s GDP to grow by 3.5% in 2024, by 1.2% in 2025 and by 2.1% in 2026. Goldman Sachs Research also forecasts that world GDP will expand 2.7% next year on an annual average basis. U.S. GDP is projected to increase 2.5% in 2025, well ahead of the consensus at 1.9%. The euro area economy is expected to expand 0.8%, compared to the consensus of 1.2%. (GS, 11.15.24)
  • Russia’s Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said Dec. 4 the bank would likely raise the key interest rate this month, but the decision is not predetermined due to a recent slowdown in loans. The regulator raised its key rate to a record-high 21% in October and said there was a “very high probability” of another increase at its Dec. 20 meeting. (MT/AFP, 12.04.24)
  • "We are now seeing significant signals of economic slowdown, particularly in housing construction and investment," German Gref, the CEO of state-run Sberbank, was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies at an investor forum. He cautioned the Central Bank against "overshooting" its rates policy, making it "harder to return to the rails of economic growth." (MT/AFP, 12.06.24)
• The MOEX, an index of Russian stocks, has fallen by almost a third over the past six months. Corporate bankruptcies are up. To combat inflation, Russia’s central bank has raised its main interest rate to 21%, sending borrowing costs rocketing. Fresh American sanctions have tanked the ruble and raised the cost of imports. Labor shortages are worsening. The unemployment rate is just 2.3%, as the military and defense industry gobble up labor. (The Economist, 12.04.24)
• Russians’ cash savings have reached an all-time low of 15.9 trillion rubles ($152.15 billion) so far this year due to high interest rates, the country’s second-largest bank VTB said Dec. 4. (MT/AFP, 12.04.24)
• Russia’s currency is at its weakest since immediately after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. (The Economist, 12.01.24)
• Russia’s Central Bank will refrain from purchasing foreign currency on the domestic market from Nov. 28 through the end of 2024. According to the bank’s press release, this decision was made “to reduce financial market volatility” and is being implemented “in alignment with the Russian Finance Ministry’s regular operations” under fiscal tightening measures. (Meduza, 11.28.24)
• U.N.'s International Labor Organization said that global wages in the first half of 2024 were 2.7% higher than in the same period a year earlier, having risen by 1.3% in 2023 following a 1.5% decline in the previous year. In the first half of this year, real wages remained lower than in 2019 in Germany, France, Italy and the U.K., as well as in Japan and South Korea. Real wages were higher in the U.S., but only by 1.4%, while Canada recorded a larger increase. By contrast, Chinese real wages were up 27% from 2019, while Brazil also recorded a big rise. In Russia, real wages have risen sharply since the start of 2023 as potential workers fight the war in Ukraine while weapons manufacturers strain to increase their output. (WSJ, 11.28.24)
• Putin on Dec. 5 appointed federal lawmaker Alexander Khinshtein as the acting governor of southwestern Russia’s Kursk region, which has faced protests since being partly occupied by Ukrainian forces four months ago. (MT/AFP, 12.06.24)
• There are about 1.2 million citizens with HIV in Russia, said Vadim Pokrovsky, a representative of the Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor and Doctor of Medical Sciences. According to Pokrovsky, about 60 thousand new cases of HIV are registered in Russia every year. Statistics from Rospotrebnadzor show that over the past ten years, the incidence of HIV in Russia has decreased by 27.1%, he added. (Meduza, 12.01.24)
• Since 2010, Russia has drawn up over 30,000 administrative protocols and opened over a thousand criminal cases for publications on the Internet—pictures, calls for protests, comments and reposts. This is stated in a study by Novaya Gazeta Evropa. (Meduza, 12.02.24)
• Police in Russia carried out a search and seizure warrant at the home of the parents of an exiled investigative news outlet’s editor-in-chief. The searches were part of a criminal investigation into the violation of Russia’s “foreign agent” laws by independent outlet Important Stories editor-in-chief Alesya Marokhovskaya. (MT/AFP, 12.05.24)
• Putin will hold a "direct line" on Dec. 19, combined with a large press conference. This was reported to journalists by the press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov. (Meduza, 12.06.24)
• In the Levada Center’s latest survey (Nov. 28) of Russian public opinion, on the question of ‘what is your assessment of the current state of affairs in the country?’, 72% of respondents answered that ‘it was going in the right direction.’ That compares with 69% in October. On the question of respondents’ ‘approval of Vladimir Putin’s activities,’ in the Nov. 28 survey, 87% of respondents answered ‘I approve’—which remains unchanged since the Center’s October survey (87%). Finally, on the question of ‘top ten politicians or public figures you trust most’ in the Center’s Nov. 1 survey, Vladimir Putin scored 49%, Mikhail Mishustin 19%, Sergey Lavrov 17%, and Dmitry Medvedev 3%. Among prominent Russian figures who scored lowest (< 3%) were Vyacheslav Volodin, Valentina Matvienko, and Sergey Shoigu. The Center reports that among the top ten listed, the level of trust has remained virtually constant—only Lavrov’s has changed significantly since October: from 13% to 17%. (Levada Center, 11.28.24) Machine-translated.

Defense and aerospace:

• More than 300,000 people have been trained in reserve regiments that prepare contract soldiers to participate in the war in Ukraine. This is stated in an article by the head of the Main Directorate of Combat Training of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Ivan Buvaltsev, published in the magazine “Krasnaya Zvezda.” (Meduza, 12.02.24)
• The Russian military is considering establishing a separate service branch for unmanned systems, likely as part of the Russian MoD’s belated effort to catch up to the establishment of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) in Feb. 2024. (ISW, 11.29.24)
• Colonel General Rustam Muradov was appointed first deputy commander-in-chief of the Russian ground forces, said Magomed Kurbanov, head of the Tabasaran district of Dagestan. Muradov is accused in Z-channels of heavy losses during the offensive on Ugledar and Pavlovka. In the spring of 2023, he resigned as commander of the Eastern Military District. (Istories, 11.29.24)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russia’s Interior Ministry says offences including murder, rape, grievous bodily harm, sabotage, property violations and interethnic violence are at their highest in at least 15 years. (The Economist, 11.28.24)
• Alexander Volovnik, the former head of Fondservisbank, which served as the backbone bank for Roscosmos and the military-industrial complex, was sentenced to 19 years in prison. According to investigators, he and his accomplices, who received sentences of 12.5 to 17 years, were involved in creating a criminal organization that embezzled billions of dollars, including funds from a state corporation. (Kommersant, 11.28.24)
• GRU officers Anatoly Chepiga and Alexander Mishkin, who are linked to the poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia, are currently living in Moscow and are training saboteurs to be sent to Europe. Investigative journalist Hristo Grozev said this on Dozhd. (Media Zone, 11.29.24)
• Russia said Dec. 6 it had arrested suspected members of a Colombian cartel trying to smuggle tens of millions of dollars worth of cocaine into Europe. The suspects were caught loading 570 kilograms (1,250 pounds) of the illegal substance into a container intended for shipment to the European Union, according to Russia's FSB security service. (MT/AFP, 12.06.24)

• A dark trend has returned to Russia: far-right nationalists sharing videos of brutal attacks on ethnic minorities and other “outsiders.” Each month, at least about 100 new clips of violence against migrants from the Caucasus and Central Asia, LGBTQ+ people and homeless people appear online. (Meduza, 12.06.24)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Chad, a longtime Western counterterrorism ally in central Africa, said it is ending military ties with France, the latest country in the troubled Sahel region to break with its former colonial power amid rising anti-French sentiment. both France and the U.S. had been treading carefully in their relations with Chad, hoping to stop Déby from also moving closer into Russia's orbit. (WSJ, 11.29.24)
• A ring of Bulgarian spies working for Russia targeted Ukrainian soldiers believed to be undergoing training in complex air defense systems at a U.S. military base, a London court heard on Dec. 3. Jurors at the Old Bailey were told that some members of the group had planned an operation at Patch Barracks, a U.S. facility near Stuttgart in Germany, from Oct. 2022 until their arrests in Feb. 2023.The ring used video-recording spyglasses and honey traps to gather information on journalists and dissidents, British prosecutors said on Dec. 2. London’s Old Bailey heard the group targeted journalists Christo Grozev and Roman Dobrokhotov, as well as Kazakh dissident Bergey Ryskaliyev, tracking them variously on flights and across European cities during 2021 and 2022. (FT, 12.03.24)
  • The spies, who were based in the UK, were ordered to carry out surveillance on the base in Germany, which they believed was being used for training on Patriot missiles following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Times of London, 12.04.24)
  • A Bulgarian national accused of spying for Russia was paid £18,600 from a bank account in the name of collapsed payments company Wirecard, according to evidence seen by a London court on Dec. 5. (FT, 12.06.24)
• Russia ordered the closure of Poland’s consulate in St. Petersburg and told three diplomats to leave the country as part of an escalating diplomatic confrontation. The Foreign Ministry in Moscow said in a statement on Telegram that it was acting in retaliation for the closure of its consulate in Poznan, as part of what it called an “openly hostile” policy toward Russia by Polish authorities. (Bloomberg, 12.05.24)
• Polish authorities have arrested Irina Rogova, the wife of the former coordinator of the now defunct Open Russia project, on charges of espionage. Rogova (aka Moseikina) will remain in custody for three months, The case appears to be part of a broader investigation. Poland’s Internal Security Agency on Nov. 27 conducted a search of the residence of Danila Buzanov, a Russian acquaintance of Rogova and her husband, Igor Rogov. According to Buzanov, agents inquired about possible ties between Igor Rogov and Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB). (RFE/RL, 12.02.24)
• Estonian authorities accused one of Russia’s spy agencies of organizing acts of vandalism, including smashing the interior minister’s car windows last year. (Bloomberg, 12.05.24)
• Russia's Embassy in South Korea warned its citizens to “refrain” from “mass events” after the country's president declared martial law in a surprise move on Dec. 3. (MT/AFP, 12.03.24)
• Russia has launched the first phase of a pilot program requiring foreigners and stateless persons to submit biometric data when entering the country for stays exceeding 90 days. According to RBC, biometric collection points have been set up at Moscow’s passenger airports and the Mashtakovo border crossing in Russia’s Orenburg region. Foreigners will have their fingerprints scanned and photographs taken. (Meduza, 12.03.24)

Ukraine:

• Citizens will be entitled to a $24 one-off payment this winter, Zelenskyy announced, in a move apparently intended to soften the blow of a tax rise to help fund the war effort. (NYT, 12,05.24)
• Recent polls suggest that just 22% of Ukrainians would vote to re-elect Zelenskyy for a second term (with just 16% marking him as their first choice). According to a poll last month by the Social Monitoring Centre in Kyiv, about 60%  would prefer Zelenskyy not even to stand at all. Leading the polls is Gen. Valerii Zaluzhny—whom Zelenskyy sacked as chief of Ukraine’s general staff in February and effectively exiled as ambassador to London—whose support in presidential elections stands at 42%. Third in the race is Ukraine’s enigmatic and ruthless military intelligence chief, General Kyrylo Budanov, on 18%. (Spectator, 12.07.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Putin has ordered the signing of a pact offering closely guarded security guarantees between Russia and Belarus on Dec. 6. “The treaty is considered appropriate to sign at the highest level,” Putin’s decree states. Putin is due to attend the summit in Minsk marking the 25th anniversary of the founding of the “Union State” between Russia and Belarus, which envisions a common currency, legal system and joint defense and foreign policies. Russian media reported that Putin and Lukashenko will sign the security pact at the summit on Dec. 6. (MT/AFP, 12.05.24)
• Georgia's prime minister vowed Dec. 5 to “eradicate” the country's “liberal-fascist” opposition, escalating the government's bitter campaign against its rivals as mass pro-EU protests enter their second week. Tbilisi has been rocked by turmoil since the governing Georgian Dream party, which critics accuse of creeping authoritarianism and of leading the country back into Russia's orbit, claimed victory in a disputed election in October. The government said last Dec. 5 that it would suspend EU membership talks until 2028, sparking uproar and a fresh wave of demonstrations. (MT/AFP, 12.05.24)
• Armenia considers itself outside the CSTO, and the country's return to the organization is impossible, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said in a speech in parliament Dec 4. (Meduza, 12.04.24)
• Armenia has declined to host the forthcoming summit of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), originally scheduled for Dec. 25 in Yerevan, the country's capital. Instead, the meeting will be held in the Russian city of St. Petersburg. (BNE, 11.28.24)
• Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will impose sanctions against the Georgian officials responsible for suppressing pro-E.U. protests in recent days, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna announced Dec. 1. (Meduza, 12.02.24)
• Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met in Astana on Nov. 27 and signed a joint statement deepening the Russian-Kazakh strategic partnership within the framework of Russia's efforts to establish a "new world order.” (ISW, 11.07.24)
• Swiss private bank Lombard Odier has been charged with aggravated money laundering by Switzerland’s federal prosecutor. In charges filed on Friday, the prosecutor said Lombard Odier—one of the country’s most illustrious financial institutions—had for years played a “decisive role” in helping to conceal the criminal activities of Gulnara Karimova, daughter of the now-deceased president of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov. (FT, 11.29.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• “The cost of supporting Ukraine is well known, but the cost of not doing so would be infinitely higher,” British spy chief Richard Moore warned. “China would weigh the implications, North Korea would be emboldened, and Iran would become still more dangerous.” Moore said that during his “37 years in the intelligence profession, I’ve never seen the world in a more dangerous state.” (FT, 11.29.24, WSJ, 11.29.24)
• Former Kremlin advisor Sergei Karaganov said: “I believe that victory [in the Russian invasion of Ukraine] can be achieved in a year and a half.” (Business Online/Russia in Global Affairs, 11.29.24)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Ukrainian Presidential Office shared under a Creative Commons 4.0 license.