5 Things to Know

1. The Trump administration’s newly released U.S. National Security Strategy 2025 asserts that an “expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine” is a core U.S. interest—not only to enable Ukraine’s survival as a “viable state,” but also to stabilize the European economy, prevent escalation and reestablish strategic stability with Russia. Managing Europe’s relationship with Russia, the NSS notes, will require vigorous U.S. diplomatic engagement to avoid further conflict and promote Eurasian stability. The document calls for “reestablishing conditions of stability within Europe and strategic stability with Russia,” thus, highlighting nuclear arms control. On nuclear policy, the strategy promises America the “world’s most robust, credible and modern nuclear deterrent,” alongside investment in “next-generation missile defenses.”¹
   1. On Dec. 5, Ukraine’s security chief Rustem Umerov and General Staff head Andriy Hnatov met U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner—who had previously visited Vladimir Putin to run an evolving peace plan by him with no agreement reached—in Miami to discuss the four-package peace plan. These talks in Miami were adjourned in the afternoon of Dec. 5 without agreement. Despite no deal being reached, further negotiations were reportedly expected with the participation of Umerov and Hnatov in the U.S. in the evening of Dec. 5, after the negotiators were due to brief their respective leaders. U.S. Vice President JD Vance expressed optimism about progress, though he acknowledged talks have been slower and more complex than expected.
2. During a recent meeting with Ukrainian officials, U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll warned that Ukraine was facing an imminent defeat on the battlefield. The Russians were ramping up the scale and pace of their aerial attacks, and they had the ability to fight on indefinitely, Driscoll said, two sources with knowledge of the matter told NBC. The situation for Ukraine would only get worse over time, he continued, and it was better to negotiate a peace settlement now rather than end up in an even weaker position in the future. In separate remarks in Kyiv to European diplomats, Driscoll warned that Russia is amassing a growing stockpile of long-range missiles, citing it as a reason to rapidly reach a peace deal before Ukraine’s defenses are overwhelmed, according to New York Times. European officials pressed Driscoll on including accountability for Russian war crimes in the peace deal, but he reportedly deflected, arguing that some disputed Ukrainian cities would inevitably end up under Russian control and warning that the terms for Ukraine would worsen if they delayed making a deal, according to Financial Times.
3. RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Nov. 4–Dec. 2, 2025) indicates that Russian forces gained 247 square miles of Ukrainian territory in that period, an increase over the 154 square miles it gained over the previous four-week period (Oct. 7–Nov. 4, 2025), according to the Dec. 3, 2025, issue of The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card.^2,3 In the past week, Nov. 25–Dec. 2, 2025, Russia gained 23 square miles of Ukraine’s territory in a significant decrease from the previous week’s reported gain of 128 square miles. Since Jan. 1, 2025, Russia has gained an average of 176 square miles per month, according to RM’s war card. Its latest gains include the city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, which is “fully in the hands of the Russian army,” Vladimir Putin claimed in Dec. 2 remarks. According to the map by Ukraine’s OSINT DeepState group, however, most but not all of Pokrovsk was controlled by Russian forces as of Dec. 5 noon, with RF units attacking this key city from the east and west in what looked like an effort to turn AFU’s Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad salient into a cauldron.
4. Vladimir Putin said on Dec. 2 that Russia was "ready" for war if Europe seeks one, accusing the continent's leaders of trying to sabotage a deal on the Ukraine war before he met with U.S. envoys, according to MT/AFP. "They have no peaceful agenda, they are on the side of war," he added, repeating his claim that European leaders were hindering U.S. attempts to broker peace in Ukraine.
5. The United States wants Europe to take over the majority of NATO's conventional defense capabilities, from intelligence to missiles, by 2027, Pentagon officials told European diplomats in Washington this week—a tight deadline that struck some European officials as unrealistic, according to Reuters. The U.S. officials told their counterparts that if Europe does not meet the 2027 deadline, the U.S. may stop participating in some NATO defense coordination mechanisms, said the sources, who requested anonymity to discuss private conversations, Reuters reported.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Russia’s Rosatom has begun installing new 9+ generation uranium enrichment centrifuges at the Siberian Chemical Combine in Seversk, making it the third enrichment plant to start deploying the upgraded technology, according to the International Panel on Fissile Materials. The program is expected to be completed in 2027. (IPFM Blog, 12.16.25)
• All three remaining reactors at the Bilibino Nuclear Power Plant in Chukotka will be shut down by the end of 2025, as the plant is decommissioned. Reactors No. 3 and 4 are scheduled to be disconnected from the grid in December, with power for the region now coming from Russia’s floating nuclear plant in Pevek and a new local energy center. (Rosatom, 12.03.25)

• Russia’s Rosatom and Kazakhstan’s Institute of Nuclear Physics signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly develop a multipurpose research reactor and laboratory complex in Kazakhstan, expanding bilateral cooperation on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The agreement sets out intentions for partnership on reactor construction and broader collaboration in nuclear science and technology. (Rosatom, 12.05.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea has made Russian a mandatory subject for schoolchildren starting in fourth grade, according to Russian Natural Resources Minister Alexander Kozlov. Kozlov said Russian is among the most popular foreign languages in North Korea, with about 600 students studying it, and noted growing academic exchanges between both countries. Russia’s embassy in Pyongyang is also promoting Russian language classes at local universities as Moscow and Pyongyang deepen ties. (Moscow Times/Agence France Presse, 11.27.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2025 

• Researchers at a Yale University lab in the United States are using satellite imagery to locate Ukrainian children abducted by Russia, and have uncovered 210 re-education and military camps housing some of them, the lab's director told AFP. (MT/AFP, 11.26.25)

Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025

• Like other Ukrainian soldiers held at Corrective Colony No. 10 in Russia's Mordovia region, Pavlo Afisov said he was subjected to excruciating physical and mental abuse. Beaten badly upon arrival and on countless other occasions over more than 18 months at the prison, he said he had dogs set on him while forced to crawl on a cell floor and came close to death when jailers tied a garbage bag over his head. (RFE/RL, 11.30.25)

Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

• Russia has returned seven Ukrainian children to their families with the help of U.S. First Lady Melania Trump, the White House said Dec. 4. (MT/AFP, 12.04.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Nov. 4–Dec. 2, 2025) indicates that Russian forces gained 247 square miles of Ukrainian territory in that period, an increase over the 154 square miles it gained over the previous four-week period (Oct. 7–Nov. 4, 2025), according to the Dec. 3, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card.⁴ In the past week, Nov. 25–Dec. 2, 2025, Russia has gained 23 square miles of Ukraine’s territory in a significant decrease from the previous week’s reported gain of 128 square miles. Since Jan. 1, 2025, Russia has gained an average of 41.5 square miles per week and 176 square miles per month, according to the card. (RM, 12.05.25)

• According to DeepState analysts, Russian forces occupied 195 square miles (505 square kilometers) of Ukrainian territory in November—almost double the area taken in September—with the heaviest advances near Huliaipole and significant attacks around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. November also saw a year-high number of Russian assault operations, highlighting ongoing pressure along multiple frontline sectors. (DeepState, 12.03.25) 

• Russia has likely sustained approximately 382,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in the conflict so far in 2025, and approximately 1,168,000 casualties since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. (U.K. MOD X Account, 12.02.25)
• Ukraine carried out at least 14 drone attacks on Russian oil refineries in November in a new monthly record, Bloomberg reported Dec. 1, citing public statements from both countries. Kyiv has stepped up strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure since August in a bid to undercut Moscow’s oil revenues, a key source of funding for its war effort. (MT/AFP, 12.01.25)
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “theory of victory” in Ukraine is to outlast Western support and Ukrainian resistance, but pointed out Russia now controls less territory than in early 2022. (ISW, 12.03.25) 

Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025

• U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll warned Ukraine of imminent defeat while pushing the initial peace plan. Driscoll told his counterparts their troops faced a dire situation on the battlefield and would suffer an imminent defeat against Russian forces, two sources with knowledge of the matter told NBC News. The Russians were ramping up the scale and pace of their aerial attacks, and they had the ability to fight on indefinitely, Driscoll told them, according to the sources. The situation for Ukraine would only get worse over time, he continued, and it was better to negotiate a peace settlement now rather than end up in an even weaker position in the future. “The message was basically — you are losing,” one of the sources said, “and you need to accept the deal.” (NBC, 11.25.25)
• At least seven civilians were killed and 20 injured in a massive Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv, which also hit energy infrastructure across multiple regions and left over 100,000 customers without power. Ukrainian forces reported downing more than 438 drones and several missiles, but falling debris and successful strikes caused blackouts and extensive infrastructure damage. (ISW, 11.25.25)

Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2025

• On Nov. 26, DeepState reported Russian forces have occupied Promin and Vysoke (formerly Chervone), and advanced near Myrnohrad, Zatyshshia, Marfopol, and within Pokrovsk. (DeepState, 11.26.25)
• ISW assesses that Russian forces have only consolidated control over 66% of Pokrovsk after more than 118 days, averaging 0.12 km/day (0.05 miles/day). Theater-wide advances have increased since the August Alaska summit, but at this pace, Russia would not seize the region until 2027. (ISW, 11.26.25)
• Russia launched a deadly missile and drone barrage on Kyiv, killing at least seven. (New York Times, 11.26.25)
• Ukrainian air defenses intercepted or neutralized 72 Russian attack drones during the night of Nov. 25–26, according to the Air Force. Despite the success, two Iskander-M missiles and 10 drones struck at 10 different locations across the country. Russia launched a total of 90 drones from multiple directions. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.26.25)
• Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed Russia’s only prototype A-100 “Premier” airborne early warning aircraft in an overnight raid on Taganrog airfield, according to satellite imagery published by Dnipro OSINT. (Istories, 11.26.25)

Thursday, Nov. 27, 2025

• On Nov. 27, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Vovchansk, near Serebryanka, Dachne and Rivnopillya. (RM, 12.05.25)
• U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll warned European diplomats in Kyiv that Russia is amassing a growing stockpile of long-range missiles, citing it as a reason to rapidly reach a peace deal before Ukraine’s defenses are overwhelmed. (New York Times, 11.27.25)

Friday, Nov. 28, 2025

• On Nov. 28, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Rivnopillya and Huliaipole. (RM, 12.05.25)
• Ukraine's deep-strike drone campaign targeting Russia's oil and gas production facilities has already cost its enemy 10% of its refining capacity, according to industry experts. "Ten percent, it's not an astonishing number," says Tatiana Mitrova of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. (RFE/RL, 11.28.25)

Saturday, Nov. 29, 2025

• On Nov. 29, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Ukrainian Defense Forces have cleared Ivanivka. DS also reported the Russian armed forces advanced near Myrnohrad. (RM, 12.05.25)
• Verified Russian military deaths in Ukraine have risen to at least 152,142 since the full-scale invasion, according to a joint count by BBC Russian and Mediazona. (MT/AFP, 11.29.25)
• Russia launched a nearly 10-hour air assault on Kyiv and across Ukraine early Nov. 29, killing at least two people in the capital, injuring dozens, and knocking out power to more than 600,000 consumers in the region. The attack—which involved 36 missiles and some 600 drones—targeted energy infrastructure and civilian sites, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The strikes came as the Trump administration was preparing to hold talks with Ukrainian and Russian officials in a renewed effort to achieve a peace deal. (New York Times, 11.30.25)
• Russia conducted a major overnight missile‑and‑drone assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast on Nov. 28–29, killing at least three people and injuring more than 50. The Ukrainian Air Force reported the use of 36 missiles and nearly 600 drones, leaving over 500,000 customers in Kyiv, 100,000 in Kyiv Oblast, and 8,000 in Kharkiv without power. (ISW, 11.29.25, Washington Post, 11.29.25)
• Ukraine used naval drones to damage a major oil terminal near Novorossiysk and strike two tankers in the Black Sea that were part of Russia’s “shadow fleet.” (Washington Post, 11.29.25)
• Russian forces are using upgraded operator-controlled Shahed drones in frontline operations, targeting Ukrainian air assets and supporting their offensives. These drones, which now feature real-time guidance via antennas in occupied Ukraine, are harder for Ukrainian forces to counter. Ukraine’s military intelligence has also reported increased use of new Iranian-produced Shahed-107 drones on the battlefield. (ISW, 11.29.25)

Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025

• On Nov. 30, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Rivnopillya, Huliaypole, Stupochky and Dvorichanske. (RM, 12.05.25)
• Fighting in the Pokrovsk area remained intense and costly: after more than 120 days of combat, Russian forces have not fully taken the city but control at least half of it and continue advancing with superior manpower. (ISW, 11.30.25)

Monday, Dec. 1, 2025

• On Dec. 1, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Kozatske and advanced in Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, near Shakhove, Mykolaivka and Kamianske. (RM, 12.05.25)
• A Russian missile attack killed four people and wounded nearly two dozen others on Dec. 1 in the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro, the governor of the region said. (MT/AFP, 12.01.25)
• Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said Dec. 1 that its agents killed a Ukrainian man and arrested another during an operation to thwart an alleged assassination attempt of a senior Russian military officer in annexed Crimea. (MT/AFP, 12.01.25)
• Ukraine carried out a record number of drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and Black Sea oil-loading facilities in November, hitting strategic infrastructure at least 14 times and targeting tankers as part of an escalating energy war between the two countries. The strikes have forced the temporary shutdown of critical facilities, such as a major mooring at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, and have lowered Russia’s refinery runs. Russia’s average daily refining volume has fallen to around 5 million barrels per day as a result of the intensified campaign, down from the 5.3-5.5 million barrels per day typically processed in late autumn, Bloomberg cited analytics firm Kpler as saying. (MT/AFP, 12.01.25, Bloomberg, 12.01.25)
• A tanker carrying Russian oil products suffered four external explosions off the coast of Senegal, marking the third such incident in recent days involving vessels delivering Russian fuel in violation of Western sanctions. (The Moscow Times, 12.01.25)
• Desertions, draft dodging and a minimum conscription age of 25 have contributed to a manpower problem that hampers Ukraine's defense against a full-scale Russian invasion that will hit the four-year mark in February if peace is not achieved. (RFE/RL, 12.01.25)

Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025

• On Dec. 2, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Balagan, Solodke and Zatyshche, and advanced in Pokrovsk, near Novoekonomichne and Hulyaypole. (RM, 12.05.25)
• The Kremlin claimed that Russian forces had captured Pokrovsk and Vovchansk, but frontline reports and independent monitoring show ongoing fighting: Russia controls only about half of Pokrovsk, most of Vovchansk remains under Ukrainian control, Ukrainian officials denied the claims, and analysts note the Russian flag‑raising in Pokrovsk was largely symbolic and conducted in an area long held by Russian troops. (Istories, 12.02.25, RFE/RL, 12.02.25)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin told media, “Today [Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk ] is fully in the hands of the Russian army” and “Kupyansk has been effectively under our control for several weeks, completely and in its entirety.” On the peace process he said, “We are not planning to go to war against Europe… But if Europe wants to wage a war against us... we are ready.” (Kremlin, 12.02.25)
  • It is likely that Ukrainian forces retain a limited capability to launch small-scale raids into the northern part of the city of Pokrovsk, contesting full Russian control and delaying Russian efforts at consolidation. (U.K. MOD X Account, 12.03.25)
• A fourth Russia-connected tanker in under a week was attacked on Dec. 2. The tiny oil and chemicals tanker Midvolga-2 was sailing across the Black Sea to Georgia from Russia hauling sunflower oil when it was attacked about 80 miles off Turkey’s northern coast. (Bloomberg, 12.02.25)
  • Ukraine has begun openly targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers in the Black Sea—vessels used to secretly export Russian oil despite Western sanctions—as part of a wider campaign to disrupt Moscow's energy revenues. (Financial Times, 12.02.25)
  • NATO officials have warned of increased risks to maritime shipping security after recent Ukrainian attacks on vessels belonging to Russia’s sanctioned “shadow fleet.” A NATO Navy representative urged Kyiv to act prudently to avoid escalation and emphasized that sea lanes must remain open for all commercial cargo. (Istories, 12.02.25)
• Ukrainian drones reportedly struck FSB and police buildings in Chechnya overnight on Dec. 2, causing significant damage, including a partially burned FSB building in Achkhoy-Martan and a hit on the district police headquarters in Gudermes. Photos circulating online show fire damage, while Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed it shot down 45 drones nationwide, four over Chechnya. (Istories, 12.02.25)
  • A high-rise building in Grozny was damaged in a suspected Ukrainian drone attack on the Chechen capital. Video posted on Russian social media on Dec. 5 showed smoke and a gaping hole in the glass tower. (RFE/RL, 12.05.25)

Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025

• On Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Vovchansk, near Tykhy, Yampil and Novoekonomichne. (RM, 12.05.25)
• Russian forces achieved a tactical breakthrough northeast and east of Hulyaipole in November by massing forces comparable in size and strength to their group near Pokrovsk. Exploiting fog and rural terrain, Russian units advanced 17 kilometers after crossing the Yanchur River, but now face the challenge of crossing the Haichur. (ISW, 12.03.25)
• A NATO official noted Russian forces “currently control over 95% of [Pokrovsk]” with “no collapse of wider Ukrainian defensive lines… expected.” The official said Russian use of the city would be for logistics and “as a springboard to attack other cities in Donetsk [region],” though taking the remainder “is not a realistic possibility for the Russians for at least another year or two.” (Washington Post, 12.03.25)
• Ukraine claimed responsibility for drone strikes on two Russia-linked oil tankers in the Black Sea. Turkish tanker manager Besiktas Shipping said Dec. 3 it would halt all operations involving Russia, a week after one of its ships was struck by a series of explosions off the coast of Senegal. (MT/AFP, 12.03.25, Wall Street Journal, 12.03.25)
• Ukraine’s military struck the Druzhba oil pipeline inside Russia this week, military intelligence sources in Kyiv told media outlets on Dec. 3, marking at least the fifth attack on the key supply route this year. The attack targeted the Taganrog-Lipetsk section in Russia’s central Tambov region using a remote-controlled explosive device, according to sources with Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) who spoke to Reuters and The Kyiv Independent. (MT/AFP, 12.03.25)

Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

• On Dec. 4, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Yampol, Siversk and Vyymka. (RM, 12.05.25)
• Russian forces have claimed the capture of Pokrovsk after a 20-month campaign, but Ukraine says it still controls part of the city. ISW analyst George Barros notes Russia’s advances were slow and costly, with over 1,000 armored vehicles, 500 tanks and 25,000 troops lost in the offensive, while gaining just 12 square miles this October. (Washington Post, 12.04.25)
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly continue to hold the northern part of Pokrovsk as fierce fighting persists, according to Commander in chief of AFU Oleksandr Syrskyi. (RBC.ua, 12.04.25)

  • Ukrainian forces are still engaged in defensive operations within Pokrovsk, as Russian troops intensify infiltration attacks despite adverse weather and the presence of some 150,000 Russian personnel in the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad sector. Ukrainian commanders reported successful troop rotations and resupply runs, but ongoing Russian drone operations continue to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. (ISW, 12.04.25)

• Drone-on-drone battles have rapidly escalated on Ukraine’s front lines, with Ukrainian units intercepting hundreds of Russian drones each month. Ukraine’ 3rd Separate Assault Brigade reported 886 successful drone interceptions in September 2025, up from 507 in June, with a current success rate of about 50%—up from just 5% one year ago. (Wall Street Journal, 12.04.25)
• A recent strike in Kryvyi Rih wounded six (including a child), while Kherson’s heating plant was disabled. Meanwhile, Moscow claimed the capture of Pokrovsk, though Ukrainian troops say fighting continues and defenses are holding in key Donetsk cities. (Washington Post, 12.04.25)
• Russian authorities confirmed a Ukrainian attack on the port of Temryuk in Krasnodar Krai, southern Russia. (Status-6 X Account, 12.04.25)

Friday, Dec. 5, 2025

• On Dec. 5, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Yampil (map), Siversk (map), and Vyiimka (map) in Donetsk region. (Deep State, 12.05.25)

  • As of 1:00 pm (U.S. East Coast time) on Dec. 5, DeepState’s map was showing most of       Pokrovsk controlled by the Russian forces attacking this city from the east and west in what looked like an effort to turn AFU’s Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad salient into a cauldron. (RM, 12.05.25)

• Analysts from the DeepState project reported Russian advances near the towns of Yampil, Siversk and Vyiemka in the Donetsk region. Updated battlefield maps show Russian forces making incremental gains in multiple locations, continuing a trend of territorial shifts documented over recent months in eastern Ukraine. (Ukrainska Pravda, 12.05.25) 

• Ukraine said it attacked Rosneft PJSC’s Syzran refinery and a small port on Russia’s Azov Sea coast, adding to spate of recent strikes that are becoming costly for Moscow and the country’s oil industry. Ukraine’s military forces struck the oil-processing facility in Russia’s Volga region overnight, its General Staff said on Telegram, adding the refinery had been supplying fuel to the Kremlin’s army. It has a design capacity of 8.5 million barrels per year — about 170,000 barrels per day — and has been attacked several times this year, most recently in August. (Bloomberg, 12.05.25)

• A Russian drone strike killed a 12-year-old boy and wounded two women in central Ukraine, as Ukrainian drones targeted a Russian port and oil refinery in retaliation. The attacks coincided with ongoing but tightly controlled U.S.-mediated peace talks, and European leaders continued to press for robust security guarantees for Ukraine in any future deal. (Washington Post, 12.05.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2025 

• While visiting Kyiv, the U.S. delegation led by Driscoll said America’s defense industry could not keep supplying Ukraine with the weapons and air defenses at the rate needed to protect the country’s infrastructure and population. (NBC, 11.25.25)

Saturday, Nov. 29, 2025

• When Zelenskyy visited Washington in October seeking U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles to pressure Moscow via strikes on Russian refineries, he learned that Trump had decided not to provide the missiles after speaking to Putin. Instead, Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff advised Ukraine to request a 10-year U.S. tariff exemption, which he argued would do more to boost Ukraine’s postwar economy than new arms shipments. (Wall Street Journal, 11.29.25)

Monday, Dec. 1, 2025

• The Netherlands announced a €250 million (approx. $290 million) contribution to Ukraine under the Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (PURL), supporting NATO states’ purchases of U.S.-made weapons for Ukraine. (ISW, 12.01.25)

Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025

• Italy’s foreign minister said it would be “premature” for his country to participate in a NATO program to buy U.S. weapons for Ukraine in light of ongoing peace negotiations. “If we reach an agreement and fighting ceases, weapons won’t be needed anymore,” Antonio Tajani, who’s also a deputy prime minister, told reporters in Brussels on Dec. 3. (Bloomberg, 12.03.25)
• Ukraine’s European allies boosted military aid with Norway, Germany, Poland and the Netherlands announcing two new packages worth $500 million through the NATO Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List initiative, focused on air defense and ammunition. Germany alone will provide $200 million. (ISW, 12.03.25)

Friday, Dec. 5, 2025

• Denmark will almost halve its planned military aid to Ukraine in 2026, providing 9.4 billion kroner ($1.5 billion) instead of the previously expected 16–19 billion kroner, according to Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen. Further reductions are scheduled in 2027 and 2028, though Denmark remains among Kyiv’s top supporters relative to GDP. Officials said the move is "natural" and called for other countries to increase their share of support. (Korrespondent.net, 12.05.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2025 

• The European Union will unveil a legal proposal in the coming days that would finally enable the bloc to use Russia’s immobilized central bank assets for a €140 billion ($162 billion) loan to Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told lawmakers in Strasbourg, France, on Nov. 26 that Brussels was now ready to present the text. “I cannot see any scenario where the European taxpayers alone will pay the bill,” she said. (Bloomberg, 11.26.25)

Thursday, Nov. 27, 2025

• Russia’s Foreign Ministry has ordered the closure of Poland’s consulate in Irkutsk, the last Polish diplomatic mission outside Moscow, in retaliation for Poland closing its Gdansk consulate after alleged Russian sabotage on Polish railways. The closures leave only each country’s embassy in the other’s capital. (Moscow Times/AFP, 11.27.25)

Friday, Nov. 28, 2025

• Russian authorities have designated Human Rights Watch an “undesirable organization,” banning it from operating in Russia and making cooperation with the international rights group a criminal offense. (Washington Post, 11.29.25)

Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025

• The European Central Bank has rejected a proposal to backstop a €140bn EU “reparations loan” for Ukraine, which would have been secured by frozen Russian central bank assets. (Financial Times, 12.02.25)
• IPI Partners, LLC, a Chicago-based private equity firm that specializes in buying, developing and operating data centers, will pay $11.5 million to settle its civil liability for 51 “apparent violations” of U.S. sanctions against Russia, according to a Treasury Department statement. IPI Partners solicited and received investments from Russian oligarch Suleiman Kerimov in 2017 and 2018 through a series of legal structures, and it continued to maintain those investments for four years after the U.S. designated Kerimov for sanctions in April 2018, according to Treasury. (Bloomberg, 12.02.25)
• Zara and other Inditex brand clothes are once again for sale in Russia, despite Inditex’s official exit from the country in 2022, as local retailer Tvoe has begun selling imported Inditex-labelled products from previous seasons. (Financial Times, 12.02.25)
• The Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) on Dec. 2 overturned a ban that had barred Russian and Belarusian skiers from qualifying for the 2026 Winter Olympics, opening the way for them to compete as neutral athletes. (MT/AFP, 12.02.25)

Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025

• The EU is adding Russia to its blacklist of jurisdictions at high risk of money laundering and terrorist financing, according to EU officials and a draft decision seen by POLITICO. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) suspended Russia’s membership after the invasion of Ukraine but did not blacklist Moscow, facing opposition from BRICS countries. (Politico, 12.03.25)
• The Russian economy faces growing pressure from sanctions, with oil and gas revenues falling 27% year-over-year. However, analysts caution that neither economic nor battlefield strains have become “dire enough to give the United States significant leverage in the talks,” as Putin insists Russia is “winning” and sees no reason to change course. (New York Times, 12.03.25)
• Russia’s internet regulator Roskomnadzor announced partial restrictions on Apple’s FaceTime app, citing alleged use for organizing terrorist acts and other crimes. Voice and video calls have been limited on several messaging services, including WhatsApp and Telegram, as part of an ongoing crackdown. Russian FaceTime users have reported service problems since October. (Istories, 12.04.25)
• Roblox Corp.’s popular gaming platform was blocked in Russia, local news outlets reported, cutting off millions of daily users. (Bloomberg, 12.03.25)

Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

• The EU is advancing scaled‑back emergency plans to fund Ukraine using frozen Russian assets, proposing €90 billion in loans backed either by the bloc’s budget or the immobilized funds, while exploring crisis powers to raise up to €210 billion. The initiative faces legal and political resistance—especially from Belgium, which holds most assets and fears financial liability, and from Hungary. The revised plan reduces Ukraine’s two‑year support to about $105 billion, leaves over $100 billion untouched for now, and relies on member‑state guarantees for Euroclear. (Bloomberg, 12.03.25, Financial Times, 12.03.25, Financial Times, 12.04.25, Wall Street Journal, 12.04.25) 

  • German Chancellor Friedrich Merz traveled to Brussels in a last-ditch attempt to secure Belgium’s support for the EU plan to use about €210bn in frozen Russian sovereign assets to fund military aid to Ukraine. The plan faces opposition from Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, and is further complicated by U.S. pressure for the assets to be kept in reserve for a potential peace deal. EU leaders hope to finalize the arrangement ahead of an upcoming summit and before any possible U.S.-brokered resolution with Moscow. (Financial Times, 12.05.25)

  • Russia’s ex-President Dmitry Medvedev warned that using frozen Russian assets for an EU “reparations loan” to Ukraine could be considered a pretext for war, after the European Commission drafted a €210 billion loan plan backed by seized Russian reserves. Belgian resistance has stalled the measure. (Korrespondent.net, 12.04.25)
• Russia banned Snap Inc.’s Snapchat and Apple Inc.’s FaceTime, further limiting access to Western communication services, according to Interfax. The communications agency Roskomnadzor said Snapchat and FaceTime were being used within Russia “to organize and carry out terrorist acts” and recruit perpetrators, as well as to commit fraud and other crimes, the news service cited the body as saying Dec. 4. (Bloomberg, 12.04.25)
• The U.S. imposed a $7 million penalty on a New York property-management firm for breaking sanctions against Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska several years ago. The Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control said on Dec. 4 it penalized real estate manager Gracetown Inc. for receiving two dozen payments between 2018 and 2020 on behalf of a firm owned by Deripaska. (Bloomberg, 12.04.25)

Friday, Dec. 5, 2025

• The U.S. lobbied several countries in the European Union in an effort to block EU plans to use frozen Russian central bank assets to back a massive loan to Ukraine, according to European diplomats familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 12.05.25)
• Russia’s Central Bank announced Dec. 5 that it will lift limits on money transfers abroad for Russians and non-residents from “friendly” countries starting next week, more than four months ahead of schedule. (MT/AFP, 12.05.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025

• U.S. efforts to broker a Ukraine peace deal intensified as Special Envoy Steve Witkoff prepared for talks in Moscow after previously advising Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov on how Putin could raise a “20‑point plan” with U.S. President Donald Trump, according to a Bloomberg‑reviewed call. Washington said the revised U.S. proposal—about 19 points—had narrowed gaps between Kyiv and Moscow, and a Trump‑Zelenskyy summit was under discussion. Kyiv and Washington had agreed on most terms, including an 800,000‑troop cap and strong U.S.-European security guarantees, but disputes persisted over territorial concessions by Ukraine and Ukraine’s NATO aspirations. CNN reported that three unresolved issues continued to block progress, while Moscow publicly repeated maximalist demands despite citing “understandings” from the August Alaska summit. Zelenskyy sought direct talks with Trump to settle the remaining points, which officials said could determine whether a deal was possible in late November. (Bloomberg, 11.25.25, CNN, 11.25.25, NBC, 11.25.25, Axios, 11.25.25, ISW, 11.25.25)

Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2025 

• Trump signaled progress in U.S.-led Ukraine peace talks, denying he set a firm Thanksgiving deadline for an agreement. He acknowledged Russia currently holds the battlefield advantage and suggested Ukraine may lose territory in the coming months, while defending territorial concessions as a potential life‑saving compromise. The original 28‑point U.S. proposal—widely criticized in Kyiv and Europe for echoing Russian demands—has been scaled back to roughly 19–22 points, with the most sensitive questions on borders and security guarantees left for a future Trump‑Zelenskyy meeting. Envoy Steve Witkoff, whose leaked calls with Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov sparked political uproar in Washington and Kyiv, was to travel to Moscow to meet Putin. The leaks revealed discussions about Donetsk and possible land swaps, prompting Ukrainian officials to restate “red lines” rejecting territorial concessions. Russia, meanwhile, insisted any deal follow the terms discussed at earlier summits and has shown little willingness to compromise while expecting further battlefield gains. European leaders warned against a settlement that sidelines Ukraine or rewards aggression, even as U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian representatives continue parallel talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva on security guarantees, prisoner exchanges and the revised peace framework. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.26.25, Reuters, 11.26.25, RFE/RL, 11.26.25, Financial Times, 11.26.25, Wall Street Journal, 11.26.25, Washington Post, 11.26.25, Foreign Policy, 11.25.25, RBC.ua, 11.26.25, The Moscow Times, 11.26.25, Kommersant, 11.26.25, Istories, 11.26.25, Korrespondent.net, 11.26.25, Bloomberg, 11.26.25, Bloomberg, 11.25.25, ISW, 11.26.25)Top of Form

Thursday, Nov. 27, 2025

• Putin criticized revised European‑Ukrainian peace plans as “ridiculous,” rejected signing any accord with Zelenskyy as legally impossible, and said Russia could formalize a pledge not to attack Europe if requested. Putin also defended Trump’s envoy Witkoff as a legitimate negotiator despite leaked calls showing U.S. deference to Russian positions. (Washington Post, 11.27.25, Wall Street Journal, 11.27.25, Washington Post, 11.27.25, Moscow Times/AFP, 11.27.25, Istories, 11.27.25, Bloomberg, 11.27.25)

Friday, Nov. 28, 2025

• The United States weighing “de facto” recognition of Russian control over Crimea and other occupied territories as part of a draft peace deal Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner brought to Moscow, a move alarming European allies and rejected by Kyiv absent a national referendum. Putin continues to seek international recognition of Russia’s territorial claims and threatens additional force if his demands are not met. (The Telegraph, 11.28.25, ISW, 11.28.25, New York Times, 11.28.25)

Saturday, Nov. 29, 2025

• Dan Driscoll, a former U.S. Army officer unexpectedly tapped by the White House as an envoy to Ukraine, shifted from a planned drone-focused visit to helping launch peace negotiations at Trump’s request. According to the Financial Times, Driscoll’s approach drew mixed reactions: While Ukrainian officials found him active and willing to listen, a senior European diplomat described his meetings as “nauseating.” European officials pressed Driscoll on including accountability for Russian war crimes in the peace plan, but he reportedly deflected, arguing that some disputed Ukrainian cities would inevitably end up under Russian control and warning that the terms for Ukraine would worsen if they delayed making a deal. (Financial Times, 11.29.25)

Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Nov. 30 talks in Florida with a Ukrainian delegation led by National Security and Defense Council secretary Rustem Umerov were constructive and showed “substantial progress,” though significant work remains on a joint peace framework. The meeting followed earlier negotiations in Geneva that narrowed the original U.S. 28‑point proposal—initially shaped by major Russian demands—to roughly 19 points after Ukrainian and European pushback. Key issues, including territory, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s NATO path, remained unresolved. Andriy Yermak, who had recently succeeded in softening some Russian-leaning terms, was absent after resigning amid a $100 million corruption probe. Both Rubio and Umerov called the Florida talks productive, and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff were then to take the draft plan to Moscow ahead of Putin’s Dec. 4 trip to India. (New York Times, 11.30.25, Financial Times, 11.30.25, ISW, 11.30.25)
  • "The end goal is, obviously, not just the end of the war," Rubio said. "But it's also about securing an end to the war that leaves Ukraine sovereign and independent and with an opportunity at real prosperity.” (WUFT-NPR, 11.30.25)

Monday, Dec. 1, 2025

• The main sticking points in the negotiations with Ukraine remained territorial borders—particularly whether Ukraine should cede parts of Donbas—and security guarantees. While Zelenskyy called recent U.S. proposals potentially “workable,” he remains unwilling to surrender territory, even as Putin insists on Ukrainian withdrawal from regions Russia claims. European leaders, including France’s Emmanuel Macron and the EU’s Kaja Kallas, emphasize that no dictated peace will be accepted, and warn against an imposed U.S. deal. Observers expect any pact to require several legally binding agreements and months of further negotiation, with a “frozen conflict” considered likely if Russia refuses real compromise. (Axios, 12.01.25, Axios, 12.01.25, Korrespondent.net, 12.01.25, New York Times, 12.01.25, Bloomberg, 12.01.25, RFE/RL, 12.01.25, Washington Post /AP, 12.01.25)
• Former Ukrainian armed forces chief and current ambassador to the U.K., Valerii Zaluzhnyi, wrote in a column for LIGA.net that lasting peace in Ukraine cannot be achieved simply due to news-cycle pressure; instead, key military, economic, and political preconditions must be met. Zaluzhnyi argues the Kremlin is unlikely to accept peace without either a decisive defeat of Ukraine or significant concessions, and that most wars—including this one—end in stalemate or ambiguous outcomes, not outright victory or defeat. In his view, Ukraine’s true victory would be the breakup of the Russian empire, while total occupation and collapse would be a defeat. A long-term truce, he adds, could enable Ukraine’s recovery, political reform, and growth, even as frozen conflict remains possible. (Korrespondent.net, 12.01.25)

Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025 - Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025

• The latest round of peace talks in Moscow between Putin and U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in the Kremlin ended after nearly five hours with no breakthrough on ending the war in Ukraine. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov called the discussions “useful” and “constructive,” but said “no compromise option” was found, although some elements of the revised U.S. peace proposal appear “more or less acceptable” to Russia. Moscow remains firm on its demand for full control over contested regions like Donbas, while the updated U.S. plan would defer final land settlement and allow Ukraine to raise its armed forces cap to 800,000. Zelenskyy canceled a planned meeting with the U.S. delegation in Brussels amid stalled progress, instead convening with European security advisers. The talks, part of Witkoff’s sixth trip to Russia this year, come as Western officials and NATO emphasize continued military support for Ukraine in case negotiations fail. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia has not rejected Trump’s peace plan, and further talks are expected. NATO’s Mark Rutte cautioned outcomes remain uncertain, saying “the best way to put pressure on the Russians is... weapon flow into Ukraine will keep on going.” (Wall Street Journal, 12.02.25, Wall Street Journal, 12.02.25, RFE/RL, 12.02.25, Bloomberg, 12.02.25, ISW, 12.02.25, Financial Times, 12.02.25, RFE/RL, 12.02.25, Istories, 12.02.25, Bloomberg, 12.02.25, Wall Street Journal, 12.02.25, journalist Alex Raufoglu/X, 12.02.25, ISW, 12.02.25, Washington Post, 12.03.25, MT/AFP, 12.03.25, Financial Times, 12.03.25, Financial Times, 12.03.25)
  • Kremlin officials, including spokesman Dmitry Peskov, have said negotiations with the U.S. over the Ukraine war will be kept confidential, claiming privacy will make talks more productive. ISW notes this secrecy likely aims to obscure Russia’s rejection of the latest U.S.-Ukrainian peace proposal. (ISW, 12.03.25)

Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

• Putin called his nearly five‑hour Moscow meeting with U.S. envoys “necessary” but rejected key American proposals, insisting any deal reflect “realities on the ground,” including Ukraine withdrawing from all Russian‑claimed Donbas territory. Talks produced no breakthrough, with Putin tying U.S. proposals to prior Alaska agreements with Trump and warning of military action if Kyiv does not comply. U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators continue discussions, while European leaders—citing ongoing Russian attacks—accuse Putin of feigning interest in peace and pledge continued military support. (Washington Post, 12.04.25, Ukrainska Pravda, 12.04.25, Washington Post, 12.04.25)
• Trump said his advisers Witkoff and Kushner had “a very good” five-hour meeting with Putin in Moscow, focused on Trump’s Ukraine peace plan. Trump said Putin appeared to want a deal, though no breakthrough was reported. Ukrainian national security adviser Rustem Umerov was briefed on the talks and is expected to continue negotiations with Witkoff and Kushner in Miami. Zelenskyy emphasized that “a dignified peace” must reflect Ukraine’s interests. (Axios, 12.04.25)
• Witkoff and Kushner will brief Ukrainian negotiators after Kremlin talks with Putin failed to achieve a breakthrough on a U.S.-backed peace plan. Putin rejected all major proposals, renewing threats to seize more Ukrainian-controlled territory in Donetsk, while U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators continue to discuss a revised framework. Ukrainian officials underscored that key Russian demands—including withdrawal from the remainder of Donetsk and renouncing NATO ambitions—remain unacceptable. (Financial Times, 12.04.25)
• Ukrainian NSDC chief Rustem Umerov and General Staff head Andriy Hnatov arrived in the U.S. for continued peace talks with Witkoff and Kushner, with discussions in Florida centered on a revised plan that now includes more Ukrainian proposals. Kyiv is seeking updates on the U.S. delegation’s Moscow visit and Trump’s feedback before Zelenskyy issues new directives. Zelenskyy called the Florida consultations productive and said negotiations will soon expand to a “3+ countries” format in Brussels. Ukrainian officials emphasize that diplomacy must continue alongside stronger pressure and sanctions on Russia. (RBC.ua, 12.04.25, RBC.ua, 12.04.25)
• The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire plan is now being negotiated in four “package” documents, according to officials and media. One addresses the size of Ukraine’s armed forces and missile range, a second concerns territorial issues—where the U.S. and Russia demand Ukrainian troop withdrawal from Donbas, which Kyiv rejects. The third package focuses on economic cooperation, while the fourth covers broader European security guarantees. Disagreements remain, especially on borders and Ukraine’s security status. (Istories, 12.04.25)
• French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned Zelenskyy that the U.S. might betray Ukraine on territorial and security guarantees, according to Spiegel. Several European leaders urged caution and insisted Ukraine not be left alone with the American team. Paris has denied using the word “betrayal.” (Korrespondent.net, 12.04.25)

  • Macron denied rumors of distrust between the U.S. and European partners on Ukraine policy, saying unity is vital for peace efforts between Kyiv and Moscow. Macron insisted European states welcome U.S. peace initiatives and dismissed reports he warned of possible U.S. betrayal over Ukrainian territory as false. (RBC.ua, 12.05.25)

• ISW analysts noted that Putin reiterated his maximalist war aims in a recent Indian media interview, insisting Russia’s conditions for peace involve full Ukrainian capitulation, guarantees on NATO non-enlargement, and regime change in Kyiv. ISW assessed that Putin falsely cast his objectives as limited to Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, while his broader goals remain unchanged. (ISW, 12.04.25)

Friday, Dec. 5, 2025

• The U.S. government's National Security Strategy 2025 says, "It is a core interest of the United States to negotiate an expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, in order to stabilize European economies, prevent unintended escalation or expansion of the war, and reestablish strategic stability with Russia, as well as to enable the post-hostilities reconstruction of Ukraine to enable its survival as a viable state." The National Security Strategy 2025 also says, "The Ukraine War has had the perverse effect of increasing Europe’s, especially Germany’s, external dependencies." (Whitehouse.gov, November 2025)

• The latest round of U.S.-Ukraine negotiations on a potential peace plan concluded in Miami, involving Ukrainian security chief Rustem Umerov and General Staff head Andriy Hnatov. U.S. envoys presented a revised plan, reportedly trimmed from 28 to 27 points in four “packages,” with discussions covering Ukrainian sovereignty, territorial concessions, and economic cooperation for postwar reconstruction. Further meetings are anticipated as no compromise has yet been reached. (RBC.ua, 12.05.25)

  • Umerov and Hnatov were scheduled Dec. 5 to hold a follow-up meeting with Witkoff and Kushner in Florida, to discuss next steps in the peace process regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine, according to Ukrainian media sources. (Korrespondent.net, 12.05.25)

• U.S. Vice President JD Vance expressed optimism about the prospects for ending Russia’s war against Ukraine, stating that “good news” could emerge within weeks, though talks had been more frustrating and complex than expected. He cited progress in recent U.S.-led peace negotiations—now involving a revised plan with 27 points—and said the White House remained hopeful a breakthrough could be achieved soon. (RBC.ua, 12.05.25)

• European leaders have urged Zelenskyy to resist rapidly agreeing to U.S.-brokered peace terms in the war with Russia, warning there must be firm U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine before any concessions. Their message reflects concern that Washington’s push for a quick settlement risks sacrificing Kyiv’s key interests and further sideling Europe in decision-making. (Wall Street Journal, 12.05.25)

• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha called for concrete and reliable security guarantees for Ukraine, citing the "bitter lessons" of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which he described as a failed security agreement. Marking its 31st anniversary, Sybiha stated Ukraine no longer trusts empty promises and insisted that effective guarantees are necessary for a just and lasting peace. (Korrespondent.net, 12.05.25) 

• Trump’s new national security strategy sharply criticizes Europe’s “unrealistic expectations” for the Ukraine war, calls for an end to NATO enlargement, and prioritizes “strategic stability” with Russia. The document spotlights rifts with European allies, urges Europe to take primary responsibility for its defense, and focuses U.S. security on the Western Hemisphere and deterring China in the Pacific. (Wall Street Journal, 12.05.25) 

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025

• Romania’s defense chief said the NATO member state will soon be able to deploy a U.S.-supplied anti-drone system to thwart a rising number of airspace breaches by Russia. Defense Minister Ionut Mosteanu said the new Merops system is close to deployment as Moscow more aggressively tests the military alliance’s capabilities on its eastern flank. (Bloomberg, 11.25.25)

Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2025 

• Kremlin-run media outlets, including RT and Sputnik, have ramped up disinformation campaigns in Latin America, especially Mexico, aimed at turning public opinion against the United States and boosting support for Russia, according to a U.S. diplomatic cable and watchdog reports. RT’s Spanish-language audience in Mexico surged from 191,000 views in 2022 to 715 million in 2023 (New York Times, 11.26.25)
• In Paris, Russian national Anna Novikova and Frenchman Vincent Perfetti, leaders of the “SOS Donbass” association, have been arrested on suspicion of espionage for Russian intelligence. The DGSI alleges SOS Donbass was a front for meetings with Russian officials in occupied eastern Ukraine and for gathering intelligence. Both deny the charges, calling themselves pro-Russian activists. The Russian embassy confirmed Novikova’s detention and is monitoring the case. (Mediazona, 11.26.25)
• Poland is planning to deploy drones to protect critical infrastructure after a railway explosion—blamed on Russia by Prime Minister Donald Tusk—raised fears of sabotage. State asset minister Wojciech Balczun said “special zones” monitored by drones could secure rail lines, power plants, and refineries from future attacks. Warsaw has increased security alerts, with 5,000 police sent to protect railways. Three Ukrainians have been charged in connection with the incident, which Polish authorities say was ordered by Russian intelligence. Drone defense efforts may become a model for other countries. (Financial Times, 11.26.25)

Thursday, Nov. 27, 2025

• Germany has developed a 1,200-page classified plan (OPLAN DEU) detailing how up to 800,000 NATO troops would be moved east in event of war with Russia, emphasizing the logistical and civil-military challenges in a major conflict. Preparations include upgrading dual-use infrastructure, rehearsing with the private sector, and responding to sabotage threats. German officials warn Russia could be ready to attack NATO by 2029, with some signs it could be sooner if a Ukraine armistice frees up Russian resources. (Wall Street Journal, 11.27.25)
• France will launch a 10-month voluntary military service program next summer, aiming for 3,000 participants initially and 50,000 by 2035. President Macron said more young citizens are needed to keep the military “ready and respected,” as France and other EU states ramp up defense amid Russia concerns. (Bloomberg, 11.27.25)
• A new Levada Center poll finds 92% of Russians believe Russia has enemies—the highest since 1994. The U.S. (39%), EU (29%), Ukraine (27%) and UK (23%) top the list, with Poles, Germans, NATO countries, and even Russian authorities also mentioned. (Levada Center, 11.27.25)

Saturday, Nov. 29, 2025

• Over 60 balloons launched from Belarus entered Lithuanian airspace overnight on Nov. 28–29, forcing Vilnius International Airport to temporarily suspend operations, impacting 22 flights and 3,000 travelers. ISW assesses these ongoing airspace violations are part of Russia’s “Phase Zero” campaign—an effort to set psychological conditions for future conflict with NATO, with Belarus acting as Russia’s de facto cobelligerent. (ISW, 11.29.25)

Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025

• Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that Russia was "ready" for war if Europe seeks one, accusing the continent's leaders of trying to sabotage a deal on the Ukraine war before he met with U.S. envoys. "They have no peaceful agenda, they are on the side of war," he added, repeating his claim that European leaders were hindering U.S. attempts to broker peace in Ukraine. He added that European changes to Trump's latest plan to end the war "aimed solely at one thing—to completely block the entire peace process and put forward demands that are absolutely unacceptable for Russia." (MT/AFP, 12.02.25)
• A Dutch media analysis found that most of the roughly 60 reported drone incidents across 11 European countries between August and November 2025 showed no evidence of Russian involvement. Only four incidents—in Poland, Romania, and Moldova—involved confirmed Russian drones; many other sightings were found to be ordinary aircraft, helicopters, or even stars, with no confirmed drone presence in the majority. This challenges claims from some European officials who linked the incidents to Russia. The Kremlin has denied any connection. (MT/AFP, 12.02.25)

Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025

• NATO needs to increase its presence on the European eastern flank despite Russia’s renewed push to constrain the military alliance during peace talks with the U.S., according to Romania’s foreign minister. “NATO’s deterrence and defense posture on the eastern flank needs to be increased and not decreased,” Oana Toiu told Bloomberg in an interview in Brussels on Wednesday. “We do not accept current or future limits. (Bloomberg, 12.03.25)
• In a belligerent speech, Putin threatened to “cut Ukraine off from the sea entirely” in retaliation for Kyiv’s attacks on Russia-linked oil tankers. He added that “we have no intention of fighting Europe—I’ve said this a hundred times. But if Europe decides to start a war, we are ready right now.” (Financial Times, 12.03.25)
  • Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys said, “We have also to admit that Russia is not meeting [U.S. peace efforts] with any flexibility.” Dutch Foreign Minister David van Weel called Putin’s remarks about a potential conflict with Europe “horrible,” saying they should be taken “as a serious warning” for Europeans to strengthen their defenses. (Washington Post, 12.02.25)
  • A senior NATO official dismissed Putin’s threats toward Europe, saying the alliance is united and “Russia doesn't have the troop numbers or military capability to defeat the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Europe.” (Wall Street Journal, 12.02.25)

Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

• European officials are now openly blaming Russia for a wave of hybrid attacks—including sabotage, drones, cyberstrikes, and disinformation—across the continent. As incidents rise, governments have shifted toward naming and shaming Moscow, with top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas calling Russia’s actions “state-sponsored terrorism.” NATO leaders warn Europe must boost resilience and coordination as Russia tests alliance responses while threatening escalation. (New York Times, 12.04.25)
• The U.K. on Thursday sanctioned Russia's intelligence service and summoned Moscow's ambassador after an inquiry found President Vladimir Putin bore "moral responsibility" for the death of a British woman in a 2018 nerve agent attack. Mother-of-three Dawn Sturgess, 44, died after spraying herself with what she thought was perfume from a discarded bottle of chic Nina Ricci fragrance—but turned out to be the deadly chemical Novichok. The bottle had been dumped in Salisbury in southwest England after two suspects thought to be Russian spies brought it there in a failed attempt to assassinate former double agent Sergei Skripal in March 2018. The inquiry's report found the assassination attempt "must have been authorized at the highest level, by President Putin," and concluded the Russian leader bears "moral responsibility" for Sturgess's death four months later. "It is clear that this attack showed considerable determination and was expected to stand as a public demonstration of Russian power," the report concluded. (MT/AFP, 12.04.25)
• British Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned that the Reform Party is “pro-Putin or Putin-neutral” and emphasized the reality of Russian interference in UK democracy in an interview with The Economist. He stressed that the UK leads a coalition of 35 countries supporting Ukraine and could never do so with a Reform-led government under Nigel Farage. (The Economist, 12.04.25)

Friday, Dec. 5, 2025

• The U.S. has given Europe until 2027 to take over the decisive bulk of NATO’s conventional defense capabilities, ranging from intelligence to missiles, Reuters reported on Friday, citing people it didn’t name. If European allies don’t meet this deadline, the U.S. could stop participating in some of NATO’s coordination mechanism, according to the report. (Bloomberg, 12.05.25)
• U.S. government's National Security Strategy 2025 said, "Our broad policy for Europe should prioritize: … Ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance." (Whitehouse.gov, November 2025)
  • U.S. government's National Security Strategy 2025 said, "This lack of self-confidence is most evident in Europe’s relationship with Russia. European allies enjoy a significant hard power advantage over Russia by almost every measure, save nuclear weapons. As a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine, European relations with Russia are now deeply attenuated, and many Europeans regard Russia as an existential threat. Managing European relations with Russia will require significant U.S. diplomatic engagement, both to reestablish conditions of strategic stability across the Eurasian landmass, and to mitigate the risk of conflict between Russia and European states." (Whitehouse.gov, November 2025)
  • The White House said Europe risks “civilizational erasure” as a result of decades of economic decline, political censorship and immigration, according to a new national security document that amounts to another sharp Trump administration broadside against the continent. The 29-page National Security Strategy, published overnight and signed by President Donald Trump, said that Europe’s cultural and political failures pose a bigger threat to the continent’s way of life than its poor economic performance. “This economic decline is eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure,” the report said. “Should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less.” (Bloomberg, 12.05.25)⁵
    • U.S. government's National Security Strategy 2025 said, The Trump Administration finds itself at odds with European officials who hold unrealistic expectations for the war perched in unstable minority governments, many of which trample on basic principles of democracy to suppress opposition. A large European majority wants peace, yet that desire is not translated into policy, in large measure because of those governments’ subversion of democratic processes. This is strategically important to the United States precisely because European states cannot reform themselves if they are trapped in political crisis." (Whitehouse.gov, November 2025)

  • The new U.S. national security strategy under President Trump calls for “cultivating resistance” in Europe and heavily criticizes European officials for subverting democracy and blocking peace in Ukraine, while largely refraining from attacking Russia. The document, which prioritizes American hemispheric dominance and burden-shifting to European NATO allies, has alarmed European leaders and highlights Washington’s willingness to support nationalist, Eurosceptic parties across the continent. (Financial Times, 12.05.25)

  • The document triggered sharp backlash from European officials, highlighted tensions over support for Ukraine, and echoed far-right, anti-immigration rhetoric as well as a clear desire to halt NATO’s further eastward expansion. (New York Times, 12.05.25)

• French marines opened fire on five unidentified drones that flew over the Ile Longue naval base in Finistère, which houses France’s nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines, according to media reports. The incident, which triggered an anti-drone and search operation, highlights ongoing security risks near critical nuclear deterrence facilities. (Korrespondent.net, 12.05.25) 

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025

• The owner of major Chinese drone parts supplier Minghuaxin, Wang Dinghua, has acquired a 5% stake in Russian drone manufacturer Rustakt, marking deeper cooperation between Chinese and Russian military-industrial sectors. Rustakt, the producer of the VT-40 drone widely used in Russia’s war against Ukraine, has imported over $300 million in components from Minghuaxin and associated companies since 2023, including large volumes of batteries, motors, and controllers. (Financial Times, 11.30.25)

Monday, Dec. 1, 2025

• President Vladimir Putin has signed an executive order granting Chinese citizens visa-free entry to Russia for up to 30 days for tourism or work, effective immediately and lasting until Sept. 14, 2026. The move reciprocates Beijing’s earlier lifting of visa requirements for Russian travelers and is part of a one-year trial program aimed at boosting tourism and bilateral ties. Demand for travel from China to Russia has reportedly surged following the announcement. (The Moscow Times, 12.01.25)

Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025

• Russia has issued its first ever government bonds denominated in Chinese renminbi, raising nearly $3 billion to help fund its war in Ukraine and deepen financial ties with China. The “dim sum” bond sale marks the largest such non-Chinese sovereign renminbi deal this year, as Russia seeks alternatives to dollar and euro financing cut off by sanctions. (Financial Times, 12.03.25)
• As talks progressed, NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels said they were still in the dark about the outcome, while several Europeans expressed concern about being sidelined. Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted “some progress” had been made but highlighted that “we’re still not there,” emphasizing that “only Putin can end this war on the Russian side.” (Washington Post, 12.03.25)

Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

• French President Emmanuel Macron met China’s Xi Jinping in Beijing, urging China to support a ceasefire in Ukraine and put pressure on Russia. While Xi called for a mutually acceptable peace, he avoided direct support for Macron’s plan. Both sides focused also on expanding trade and signed multiple economic and education agreements. (Washington Post, 12.04.25)
• During a visit to Beijing, French President Emmanuel Macron pressed Chinese leader Xi Jinping to use China’s influence to help end the war in Ukraine, but Xi gave no indication of a policy shift, only reiterating calls for constructive dialogue. Macron emphasized that only Kyiv can decide on territorial concessions, while the two sides found more common ground on economic cooperation. (New York Times, 12.04.25) 

Missile defense:

Friday, Dec. 5, 2025

• Alarm over a growing hypersonic missile gap with China and Russia has fueled a boom in U.S. defense startups, with the Pentagon investing billions in new ventures to close the technology shortfall. Companies like Castelion are rapidly scaling efforts to mass-produce affordable hypersonic weapons, reflecting a strategic urgency to prepare the U.S. arsenal for possible conflict scenarios in Asia and beyond. (Wall Street Journal, 12.05.25)

Nuclear arms:

Thursday, Nov. 27, 2025

• After being asked about the possibility of Russian nuclear tests, President Vladimir Putin said: “I instructed [our agencies and special services] to gather additional information about the actions of the American side, to analyze it, and to present me with proposals on what we should do in this situation. One of the proposals that has been submitted to us is to work together on this issue, as it seems to us from what we are seeing. And we are ready, together with the American administration, to think through all the issues concerning strategic stability.” On possible negotiations, Putin said: “Yes, if this comes up. In fact, even if it does not, we will, of course, raise this question, because it is of course clear—both to the U.S. and to us: preparation for real nuclear weapons tests takes time. And of course, we cannot end up in a situation where the U.S. conducts such tests, while we still need a year and a half to prepare. Of course, we must think about this. We were not the ones to raise this, but we must be ready for any development of events. And I assure you, we will be ready.” (Kremlin.ru, 11.27.25)

Friday, Nov. 28, 2025

• A Russian ICBM test launch from the Dombarovskiy (Yasnyy) missile base in Orenburg oblast failed on Nov. 28, 2025, with local media reporting an explosion shortly after liftoff. Analysis suggests the missile, likely an RS-28 Sarmat, suffered a first-stage engine failure and caught fire before tumbling to the ground; video footage showed apparent emergency payload ejection. The failed test, part of a program moved from Plesetsk after a silo accident, further delays Sarmat deployment previously promised by Russian officials. (RussianForces.org, 11.28.25)

Saturday, Nov. 29, 2025

• The share of Russians who believe the country should strive for complete nuclear disarmament has fallen significantly over the past decade, according to a new FOM poll. In 2014, 76% supported nuclear disarmament, but as of November 2025, only 49% do, while 32% are opposed. Among Russians under 30, opposition to disarmament now outweighs support (42% against, 36% in favor), indicating a generational shift away from support for denuclearization. (FOM, 11.29.25) 

Friday, Dec. 5, 2025

• U.S. government's National Security Strategy 2025 said, "Our broad policy for Europe should prioritize: … Reestablishing conditions of stability within Europe and strategic stability with Russia." (Whitehouse.gov, November 2025)
• The U.S. government's National Security Strategy 2025 said, "We want the world’s most robust, credible, and modern nuclear deterrent, plus next-generation missile defenses—including a Golden Dome for the American homeland—to protect the American people, American assets overseas, and American allies." (Whitehouse.gov, November 2025)
• The U.S. government's National Security Strategy 2025 said, "Stopping regional conflicts before they spiral into global wars that drag down whole continents is worthy of the Commander-in-Chief’s attention, and a priority for this administration. A world on fire, where wars come to our shores, is bad for American interests. President Trump uses unconventional diplomacy, America’s military might, and economic leverage to surgically extinguish embers of division between nuclear-capable nations and violent wars caused by centuries-long hatred." (Whitehouse.gov, November 2025)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• U.S. government's National Security Strategy 2025 said, " United States must at the same time invest in research to preserve and advance our advantage in cutting-edge military and dual-use technology, with emphasis on the domains where U.S. advantages are strongest. These include undersea, space, and nuclear, as well as others that will decide the future of military power, such as AI, quantum computing, and autonomous systems, plus the energy necessary to fuel these domains." (Whitehouse.gov, November 2025)

Energy exports from CIS:

Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2025 

• Leonid Fedun, co-founder of Russian oil giant Lukoil, has sold his estimated 10% stake—worth about $7 billion—early in 2025, according to Reuters sources and market data. The sale comes as Lukoil faces mounting pressure from Western sanctions and is seen as a potential state takeover target. The company has been forced to divest foreign assets, and analysts note a sharp decline in its market position. Lukoil and Fedun declined to comment. Previously, Fedun retired from company leadership in 2022 after publicly supporting peace talks over Ukraine. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.26.25) 

Thursday, Nov. 27, 2025

• Billionaire investor Todd Boehly joined a consortium bidding for the international assets of Russia’s Lukoil, following U.S. sanctions and a failed sale to Gunvor. Any successful deal will require U.S. Treasury approval, with a deadline extended to Dec. 13 for negotiations. (Wall Street Journal, 11.27.25)

Monday, Dec. 1, 2025

• Torbjörn Törnqvist, billionaire co-founder of commodity trading giant Gunvor, has agreed to sell his 86% majority stake and exit the company after mounting pressure over Gunvor’s Russian connections—including a failed bid to purchase $22bn in Lukoil assets that was blocked by the U.S., which called Gunvor a “Kremlin puppet.” The majority stake will be acquired by a group of 60 senior staff, led by U.S. head Gary Pedersen, with Törnqvist providing a 10-year vendor loan to finance the deal. The management buyout aims to reset Gunvor’s image, remove “any dominant shareholder,” and pave the way for growth in the U.S., after longstanding questions related to its historic ties to sanctioned Russian oil figures. (Financial Times, 12.01.25)
• High-level Kremlin sources leaked that Russia might be flexible on “secondary issues” such as access to frozen Russian assets, but would not compromise on territory or Ukraine’s military limits. ISW assessed these leaks are aimed at making Russia appear flexible to the West even as Putin’s demands remain maximalist—complete annexation of four oblasts and permanent restrictions on Ukraine’s armed forces. (ISW, 12.02.25)

Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025

• The European Union is close to finalizing a law that will permanently end all Russian fossil fuel imports, regardless of any peace deal with Moscow. Under the regulation known as RePowerEU, the EU Council supports banning Russian gas supplies by the end of 2027, while the European Parliament wants to accelerate the timetable by a year. The phaseout will include strict deadlines for both piped gas and LNG; exemptions for countries like Hungary and Slovakia may apply until the end of 2027. Parliament also seeks a formal ban on Russian oil starting in 2026. The new law—which goes beyond current temporary sanctions—aims to cement Europe’s energy independence from Russia and will require final approval from both member states and the European Parliament. (Bloomberg, 12.02.25)
• Hungary said it will launch a legal challenge against the European Union's approval of a provisional agreement on phasing out imports of Russian natural gas as the bloc looks to end its dependency on Russian energy. (RFE/RL, 12.03.25)

Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025

• The EU approved a full phaseout of Russian energy, banning all Russian LNG by December 2026 and all gas imports by fall 2027, with limited exemptions for Hungary and Slovakia and penalties for violations. The plan, aimed at ending decades‑long dependence, follows steep declines in Russian supplies—from roughly 40–45% of EU gas before the invasion to about 13% today. Pipeline gas will end by September 2027, and the bloc reaffirmed its goal to eliminate remaining Russian oil imports by end‑2027. EU leaders called the move historic, though some member‑state legal challenges are expected. (Wall Street Journal, 12.03.25, Financial Times, 12.03.25, Reuters, 12.03.25)
• The Russian government’s oil proceeds shrank by almost a third in November from a year ago as weaker crude prices and a stronger currency took their toll on revenues. Oil-related taxes declined by 32% to 413.7 billion rubles ($5.3 billion) last month, according to Bloomberg calculations based on finance ministry data published Wednesday. Combined oil and gas revenue fell by 34% to 530.9 billion rubles. Lower proceeds from those industries—which have accounted for about a quarter of Russia’s budget so far this year—will ramp up pressure on state finances, burdened by military spending on the war against Ukraine that’s well into its fourth year. (Bloomberg, 12.03.25)

Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

• The Trump administration extended a waiver for Lukoil PJSC’s gas stations outside of Russia, allowing them to continue operations until late April 2026. (Bloomberg, 12.04.25)
• Austrian businessman Bernard Bergemar, former owner of Pornhub’s parent company MindGeek, has asked the U.S. Treasury for permission to buy Lukoil’s international assets, which are under sanctions. The $22 billion portfolio includes oil and gas operations and over 2,000 gas stations globally. Competing bids from Exxon, Shell, and Chevron also await U.S. approval. (Istories, 12.04.25)

Friday, Dec. 5, 2025

• Lukoil North America, the U.S. arm of sanctioned Russian oil giant Lukoil PJSC, is relying on two small New Jersey banks to keep its gas stations afloat after losing financing. The company is now working with OceanFirst Bank NA and Parke Bancorp to handle some of its transactions. (Bloomberg, 12.05.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• An American citizen and former Marine, Robert Gilman, had his sentence in Russia extended to 10 years after being convicted of assaulting two prison guards. Gilman was originally sentenced to 3.5 years in 2022 for attacking a police officer, with subsequent extensions for further alleged assaults while in custody. He pleaded guilty and explained he wanted to remain at his current prison. (Washington Post, 12.04.25)
• The Trump administration is moving to close all six overseas bureaus and four marketing offices of Voice of America, defying a judge’s order and raising concerns that the U.S. is retreating from the global fight against Russian and Chinese propaganda. Some congressional Republicans warn that VOA’s reporting is vital for countering foreign disinformation. (New York Times, 12.04.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s central bank warned corporate finances are worsening as growth slows, with rising problem debt and a 23% drop in net income for companies so far in 2025. Despite this, the bank expects financial stability to hold, though vulnerabilities are growing, especially among leveraged firms. (Bloomberg, 11.27.25)
• Russia’s federal budget is becoming increasingly defense-oriented, with security and defense rising from 23.9% of spending in 2021 to 40.3% in 2025 and 38.2% in 2026, according to the Gaidar Institute. Meanwhile, funding for the economy and social sphere is falling sharply, and debt servicing costs have doubled to 8.8%. Nearly every other ruble now goes to defense and security, reducing the budget’s flexibility and investment in development, notes journalist Pavel Demidovich. (Ejdailyru, November 2025).
• Russia’s economy is under mounting strain, with inflation outpacing wages, surging corporate debt, falling retail sales and a widening budget deficit. Sanctions, drone strikes, and increasing taxes are intensifying pressure, yet analysts expect deterioration—not collapse—unless war winds down. (Bloomberg, 11.27.25)

Thursday, Nov. 27, 2025

• Russia’s Supreme Court has designated Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation (ACF) a terrorist organization, targeting the U.S.-registered group and exposing members to harsher penalties. ACF condemned the ruling as a political move to suppress dissent. Amnesty International warned the decision could lead to mass reprisals. The crackdown on Navalny’s movement has continued even after his death in prison earlier this year. (MT/AFP, 11.27.25) 

Friday, Nov. 28, 2025

• President Putin has signed a law raising Russia’s value-added tax (VAT) rate from 20% to 22% starting January 1, 2026, while keeping a reduced rate of 10% for socially significant goods. The new law gradually lowers the revenue threshold for small businesses paying VAT under the simplified system from 60 million rubles to 10 million by 2028. VAT, Russia’s main budget revenue source, accounted for 38% of federal income in the first eight months of 2025. (Istories, 11.28.25)
• Former Kremlin Deputy Chief of Staff Dmitry Kozak sent Vladimir Putin a personal letter condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine before his resignation in September 2025, according to independent Russian media. Kozak allegedly used strong language to criticize the war but, according to associates, does not believe this angered Putin; he continues to travel abroad for medical treatment but regularly returns to Russia. (Meduza/Agentstvo, 11.28.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a new “national policy strategy” through 2036, highlighting the need to counter “foreign meddling” and aiming for at least 95% of citizens to share a “Russian civic identity.” The decree outlines risks such as anti-Russian propaganda, foreign NGO influence, and “Russophobia” while setting benchmarks for ethnic harmony and civic unity, with special emphasis on newly annexed Ukrainian regions and on promoting Russian language and culture domestically and abroad. (Meduza, 11.28.25)
• According to a November 2025 Levada Center poll, 84% of Russians approve of Vladimir Putin’s performance as president (down 4 points since February), while 12% disapprove. Approval for Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin fell to 69% (down 8 points since August), with 18% disapproving. When asked about trust in political figures, 48% named Putin, 19% Mishustin, and 17% Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov; other politicians, including Andrei Belousov, Sergei Sobyanin, Gennady Zyuganov, Dmitry Medvedev, Dmitry Peskov, Vyacheslav Volodin, Sergei Mironov, and Sergei Shoigu, trailed well behind. (Levada Center, 11.28.25) 

Monday, Dec. 1, 2025

• The exact number of people living with HIV in Russia is unknown. Data on HIV-related deaths is no longer published. According to the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor), there were 1.2 million such individuals by late 2024. The Health Ministry, however, reported 863,000 cases—almost a third fewer. A third figure comes from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), which relies on data from organizations subordinate to the Health Ministry: 928,000 people. It’s no longer clear how many people in Russia have died of HIV. (Meduza, 12.01.25)
• Former RFE/RL contributor Nika Novak, who was sentenced to prison last year by a Russian court for carrying out her professional duties, has disappeared from a Siberian correctional colony, her lawyer said. (RFE/RL, 12.01.25)

Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025

• According to a Levada Center poll conducted nationwide from Nov. 18–27, 2025, 65% of Russians believe the country is moving in the right direction—a drop of 9 percentage points since March. Meanwhile, the share who think Russia is on the wrong path rose to 21%, up 5 points since March. (Levada Center, 12.02.25)Top of Form

Friday, Dec. 5, 2025

• Authorities in the northwestern city of Pskov have filed a new criminal charge against opposition politician Lev Shlosberg, accusing him of spreading “false information” about the Russian military, the liberal Yabloko party said Friday. (MT/AFP, 12.05.25)

• Financial Times profiled Margarita Simonyan, the chief editor of the Kremlin-controlled RT network, describing her as Vladimir Putin’s staunchest propagandist. Since 2014, Simonyan has promoted the annexation of Ukrainian territory and advocated extreme tactics, such as threatening nuclear escalation and blockading the Black Sea. She remains a central figure in advancing the Kremlin’s information war against the West. (Financial Times, 12.05.25)

Defense and aerospace:

Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2025 

• On Nov. 25, 2025, Russia’s Air and Space Forces launched an Angara 1.2 rocket from Plesetsk, successfully placing three Rodnik communication satellites—likely designated Cosmos-2597, -2598, and -2599—into orbit at roughly 1,500 km altitude and 82.5° inclination. The satellites received international IDs 2025-273A/B/C and NORAD numbers 66647–66649. This follows a similar Rodnik launch in March. (RussianForces.org, 11.26.25)

Thursday, Nov. 27, 2025

• A U.S.-Russian crew of three has launched to the International Space Station aboard a Russian Soyuz spacecraft, continuing collaborative space efforts despite tensions on the ground. (Washington Post, 11.27.25)

Monday, Dec. 1, 2025

• A Nov. 27 Soyuz crew launch from Baikonur severely damaged the site’s only active ISS launchpad, forcing an indefinite halt to all Russian manned missions. Exhaust from the rocket destroyed a key service platform, with repairs expected to take months or longer. The setback leaves Russia unable to send crews—or crucial propellant‑carrying Progress ships—until the pad is restored, exposing the space program’s reliance on a single aging Kazakh‑based site. Kazakh officials also reported rocket debris falling in a remote region, alarming residents and underscoring long‑standing tensions over Russia’s space activities there. (RFE/RL, 11.30.25, New York Times, 12.1.25, Meduza, 12.02.25)
• The Russian military is continuing its transition to a force structure based on larger maneuver divisions, likely preparing for potential future conflict with NATO. On Dec. 1, Russia’s Pacific Fleet announced the expansion of its 155th Naval Infantry Brigade into the 55th Naval Infantry Division. This is part of a broader reform announced in 2022 to create 17 new divisions, including expanding several brigades into divisions. Many of these new or reorganized divisions, including the 55th, are not yet at full strength, as units remain heavily engaged in Ukraine and have suffered losses. ISW has identified at least eight new divisions formed since December 2022, though most have not reached their intended size. The reforms suggest Russia aims to increase military mass and higher echelon command capacity, viewing these as necessary for large-scale warfare, especially against NATO. (ISW, 12.01.25)

Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025s

• Incidents involving Russian airliners have quadrupled in 2025, with over 800 cases of equipment malfunctions causing flight cancellations or emergency landings between January and late November, according to Novaya Gazeta Europe. The sharp increase comes as Western sanctions, imposed after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, continue to block access to spare parts for foreign-made jets. Russian authorities have warned that, in a worst-case scenario, the country could lose over 300 aircraft and 200 helicopters within five years if the situation persists. (MT/AFP, 12.02.25)

Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025

• A Russian cosmonaut has been removed from an upcoming SpaceX mission to the International Space Station after reportedly mishandling sensitive technical materials during training in the United States. The investigative outlet The Insider reported that Oleg Artemyev, a veteran cosmonaut, allegedly photographed and removed restricted documents at SpaceX’s training facility in Hawthorne, California. (MT/AFP, 12.03.25)

Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

• Global arms sales by the world’s 100 largest weapons makers rose 5.9% to a record $679 billion in 2024, driven by wars in Ukraine and Gaza, according to SIPRI. U.S. firms accounted for $334 billion, up 3.8%, while European arms sales surged 13% to $151 billion. Russian defense revenues rose 23% to $31.2 billion, despite sanctions. Middle Eastern companies earned $31 billion, with nine in SIPRI’s ranking for the first time. (Meduza, 12.04.25)

Friday, Dec. 5, 2025

• A Bellingcat investigation found that Russian Cossack organizations are systematically mobilizing schoolchildren and young men for the war in Ukraine through militarized education, paramilitary camps, and patriotic indoctrination. The report documents how these state-aligned groups offer combat training, promote enlistment, and facilitate deployment to the front lines, resulting in a growing toll of teenage and young adult casualties. (Bellingcat, 12.05.25)

• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• The FSB has accused geologist and Inca researcher Andrei Veryanov, already sentenced to 24 years in prison for treason and terrorism, of plotting to sabotage an aircraft carrying a high-ranking Russian official. Previously, Veryanov was charged with cooperating with Ukrainian intelligence and the “Freedom of Russia” Legion, and using drones to create decoy targets for air defenses. The FSB alleges he received direct orders for the bombing plot, but did not specify the intended target. (Mediazona, 11.26.25)
• A Moscow region judge has sentenced physicist Artyom Khoroshilov to 21 years in a maximum-security prison for treason, Russian media reported Thursday. Khoroshilov was arrested in December 2023 on accusations of carrying out distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks on critical infrastructure on behalf of Ukraine, sending money to the Ukrainian military and gathering sensitive information about the Russian army. (MT/AFP, 12.04.25)
• Russia’s Prosecutor General has filed a corruption lawsuit seeking to confiscate assets worth over five billion rubles (about $55 million) from Georgy Satyukov, a former employee of the Interior Ministry’s Bureau of Special Technical Measures, as well as from his relatives and associates. The case alleges Satyukov received a record bribe—transferred as cryptocurrency—for protecting the WEX crypto exchange, and registered luxury real estate, vehicles, and valuables in Russia and the UAE under friends’ and family members’ names. Both Satyukov and his intermediary, Dmitry Sokolov, have fled abroad and are wanted internationally. (Meduza, 12.02.25)
• Former Khabarovsk Governor Sergei Furgal was sentenced to 23 years in a penal colony on new economic charges, including large-scale fraud and money laundering, after being accused of embezzling billions of rubles. Combined with a prior 22-year sentence for organizing contract killings, Furgal will serve 25 years. His 2020 arrest sparked mass protests. (Istories, 12.03.25)
• Russia has ordered port operators to carry out underwater inspections of foreign ships for explosive devices and other suspicious items, the Kommersant business daily reported Tuesday, citing a Nov. 25 government decree. (MT/AFP, 12.02.25)

• Members of Russia’s lower-house State Duma on Tuesday adopted a resolution stripping a fellow lawmaker of his parliamentary mandate as he faces a criminal investigation on charges of bribery. Anatoly Voronovsky, who served in the State Duma as a member of the ruling United Russia party, is accused of accepting 25 million rubles ($323,000) in bribes tied to road construction contracts. (MT/AFP, 12.02.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• During Putin’s first visit to India since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged to reinforce their “special and privileged strategic partnership,” expanding cooperation in defense, trade, energy, migration, and nuclear technology despite mounting U.S. pressure and new 50% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The leaders set a target to boost bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030, building on $69 billion in trade for the year ending March 2025, with Russia supplying more than a third of India’s crude oil imports. Agreements included a framework to facilitate Indian labor migration to Russia, expanded agricultural exports, joint research and production of advanced arms, and consideration of a second Russian-designed nuclear power plant in India. Putin presided over the English-language launch of RT India, while Modi emphasized the importance of energy security and acknowledged reductions in Russian oil imports to ease relations with the West. The summit came as India seeks to maintain strategic autonomy and deepen high-tech and critical mineral supply cooperation with Moscow, while balancing ties with the U.S. and EU. New Delhi also signaled openness to further private-sector nuclear involvement pending legislative reforms. (Bloomberg, 12.05.25, Bloomberg, 12.04.25, Financial Times, 12.02.25, Washington Post, 12.04.25, Financial Times, 12.04.25, Wall Street Journal, 12.04.25, Bloomberg, 12.05.25, MT/AFP, 12.05.25, MT/AFP, 12.05.25, Kremlin.ru, 12.05.25, Financial Times, 12.05.25, New York Times, 12.05.25, Wall Street Journal, 12.05.25)
  • In their joint statement leaders of Russia and India reaffirmed their commitment to expanding cooperation in nuclear energy, including the nuclear fuel cycle and ongoing work at the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant, as well as potential new joint nuclear projects. Both sides recognized peaceful nuclear energy as a key element of their strategic partnership, in light of India’s goal to boost nuclear generation to 100 GW by 2047. They agreed to accelerate consultations on construction of new Russian-designed VVER reactors in India and to localize nuclear component and fuel assembly production. Russia also reiterated its strong support for India’s membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group and both countries emphasized their ongoing commitment to nuclear nonproliferation. (Kremlin.ru, 12.05.25)

  • In their joint statement leaders of Russia and India reiterated their strong resolve to combat terrorism in all its forms, emphasizing zero tolerance for cross-border terrorism, blocking terrorist financing, and disrupting safe havens. They jointly condemned recent terrorist attacks in India (Pahalgam, April 2025) and Russia (Crocus City Hall, March 2024), calling all such acts criminal and unjustifiable regardless of motivation. They urged coordinated international action, full implementation of relevant UN Security Council resolutions, and an end to double standards, while committing to further cooperation in forums such as the UN, SCO, and BRICS to counter global terrorism and extremist ideology. (Kremlin.ru, 05.12.25)

  • India will pay about $2 billion to lease a nuclear-powered submarine from Russia, according to people familiar with the matter, finalizing delivery of the vessel after roughly a decade of talks just as President Vladimir Putin makes a visit to New Delhi. (Bloomberg, 12.04.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto in Russia later this month, according to Interfax. The trip will be a working visit by Prabowo, with leaders to “compare notes” and discuss global developments, Interfax reported late Wednesday, citing remarks to reporters by presidential aide Yury Ushakov. (Bloomberg, 12.03.25)
• Sudan's military government has offered Russia its first naval base in Africa under a proposed 25-year agreement that would allow Moscow to station up to 300 troops and four warships, including nuclear-powered vessels, at Port Sudan or another Red Sea facility. The deal, if finalized, would give Russia a strategic foothold on vital global trade routes and preferential access to Sudanese gold mining, while Sudan’s regime would receive advanced Russian weaponry. U.S. officials are alarmed by the development, which could increase Moscow's power projection and prestige in the region, and comes amid intense international competition for influence over key African ports. (Wall Street Journal, 12.01.25)
• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán met Vladimir Putin in Moscow to secure additional Russian oil and gas, citing the exemption he recently won from U.S. sanctions on Russian energy suppliers following talks with President Trump. Orbán’s ongoing relationship with Russia, and his refusal to join EU efforts to cut Russian energy imports, sets him apart from other EU leaders and has drawn criticism from partners. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is preparing to send its envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow with a revised Ukraine peace plan, while Ukrainian drones targeted Russian infrastructure in multiple locations overnight. (Washington Post, 11.28.25)
• Russia and Saudi Arabia have signed an agreement on mutual visa-free travel, set to take effect in early 2026 following legal formalities, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. The deal, signed during a business forum in Riyadh, will allow citizens of both countries to visit each other without a visa, replacing the current system that requires Russian citizens to obtain an entry visa online or upon arrival. (Meduza, 12.01.25)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did not attend the OSCE ministerial meeting in Vienna and instead sent his deputy, criticizing the organization and claiming it has been reduced to a Western tool, and suggesting its demise is near. (Ukrainska Pravda, 12.04.25)
• A South African radio presenter, Nonkululeko Mantula, appeared in court accused of recruiting men to fight for Russia in Ukraine, with police detaining her and four men—three of whom were arrested while trying to fly to Russia. (Washington Post, 12.01.25)

Ukraine:

Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2025 

• Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) has uncovered multimillion-hryvnia embezzlement during efforts to restore heating and water supplies in three Donetsk region cities. An organized group led by a Donetsk regional official allegedly inflated project costs, rigged contracts, and skimmed over 140 million UAH meant for infrastructure repairs, while actual services were left incomplete or substandard. Five individuals have been charged, and authorities say residents were left without heat and drinking water last winter as a result of the fraud. (Korrespondent.net, 11.26.25)
• Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council secretary Rustem Umerov was questioned by NABU detectives as a witness in the case of controversial businessman Timur Mindich, who is suspected of coordinating a criminal scheme involving kickbacks from Energoatom contractors. Umerov confirmed meeting Mindich to discuss a body armor contract when he was defense minister, but said the contract was terminated due to quality issues. SNBO noted that Umerov’s conversation with detectives was constructive, and that rumors of improper influence or non-return to Ukraine are unfounded. (RBC.ua, 11.26.25)

Thursday, Nov. 27, 2025

• Ukraine has agreed to end several tax breaks for businesses and households to secure a new $8 billion IMF loan package. Kyiv also pledged to crack down on tax evasion and broaden its tax base. The deal’s fate depends on whether the EU moves ahead with tapping frozen Russian assets—failure could imperil the funding. (Bloomberg, 11.27.25)

Friday, Nov. 28, 2025

• Ukrainian anti-corruption officers from NABU and SAP searched the home of Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak as part of an ongoing investigation, reportedly linked to a corruption probe in Ukraine’s energy sector. Yermak has resigned, is cooperating with authorities, and has not been declared a suspect; the case has also led to dismissals of senior officials and sanctions on businessmen alleged to have orchestrated embezzlement at state-owned Energoatom. (Meduza, 11.28.25)
• Andriy Yermak, chief of staff to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, resigned after Ukrainian anti-corruption officials raided his residence and offices as part of the “Operation Midas” graft probe, which has already implicated other top officials. Zelenskyy called for unity in his announcement, as the case fuels concern in Western capitals over Ukraine’s efforts to root out corruption while also facing increasing pressure from the U.S., with President Trump urging Kyiv to accept a peace deal. (Financial Times, 11.28.25)

Monday, Dec. 1, 2025

• The Ukrainian economy is facing severe manpower shortages due to conscription, desertions, and mass emigration. Key sectors like education, transport, and agriculture are struggling to fill jobs traditionally held by men, with some businesses turning to foreign workers. Around 6–7 million Ukrainians have left since the invasion began, and efforts are under way to encourage their return when the war ends. (RFE/RL, 12.01.25)

Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025

• “Ukrainian authorities detained a former deputy energy minister today on suspicion of embezzling funds from the state-owned nuclear power company. The move comes amid a wider corruption investigation, which has ensnared people close to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy who are suspected of laundering about $100 million from Energoatom, the state energy enterprise. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) did not name the official it detained, but said in a public statement that “He organized a criminal scheme to seize funds from the state budget of Ukraine,” the SBU said, accusing the official of inflating the costs of contracts for insurance against “nuclear damage.” (OCCRP, 12.02.25)
• Ukrainian MP Anna Skorokhod has been notified of suspicion, according to NABU. According to the investigation, a group led by Skorokhod offered a businessman to arrange the imposition of National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC) sanctions against a competitor company for $250,000. They claimed to have influence over the decisions of NSDC members. Anna Skorokhod denies her guilt and believes that the case against her is political persecution.” (Antikor, 12.05.25)

Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

• Ukraine’s Supreme Council of Justice approved the detention of a Zakarpattia judge accused of accepting a bribe disguised as “candy,” as part of ongoing anti-corruption efforts in the judiciary. (Ukrainska Pravda, 12.04.25)

Friday, Dec. 5, 2025

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government has deliberately undermined oversight, helping corruption persist, according to a New York Times investigation by Constant Méheut and Kim Barker. The administration allegedly stacked or left empty key oversight boards, rewrote company charters to avoid scrutiny, and created “window dressing” supervisory boards. European leaders have tolerated these failings to prioritize resistance to Russian invasion, with experts warning this latitude creates a permissive environment for graft. (New York Times, 12.05.25)

• Ireland is investigating a suspected “hybrid attack” after four unidentified military-grade drones reportedly tracked the flight path of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s plane during his visit to Dublin. The drones hovered over a covert Irish Navy ship deployed for the occasion; authorities believe the goal was to disrupt Zelenskyy’s arrival, but the origin of the drones remains unknown. (RBC.ua, 12.05.25)

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with First Deputy Foreign Minister Serhiy Kyslytsia to discuss ongoing negotiations, particularly with the United States, as part of reported considerations for a new presidential chief of staff. Kyslytsia is involved in Ukraine’s peace talks with the Trump administration, while intelligence sources indicate NATO does not see Putin as ready for a genuine agreement. (Ukrainska Pravda, 12.05.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2025 

• President Putin met Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov in Bishkek, emphasizing Russia’s role as a “stable and reliable partner” in Central Asia. The leaders focused on expanding economic, energy, and migration cooperation, underscoring Russia’s deepening engagement in the region. Japarov praised Russia as a strategic ally amid shifting geopolitical dynamics, while Central Asian countries continue to balance ties with Moscow, Washington, and Beijing. (The Moscow Times, 11.26.25)
• Lithuania’s top envoy warned that a surge in cases of weather balloons ferrying smuggled goods from neighboring Belarus would harm Minsk’s ambitions to seek an accord with the U.S. (Bloomberg, 11.26.25)
• Russia’s Ambassador to Moldova on Wednesday criticized authorities in Chisinau for their approach to bilateral relations after he was summoned over drone incursions earlier this week that were blamed on Russia. (MT/AFP, 11.26.25)

Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025

• Russian drones reportedly violated Moldovan airspace for over an hour during a large combined missile-drone strike on Nov. 28–29, temporarily closing Moldovan airspace. Previous Russian strikes have also breached Moldovan and Romanian skies as Russia intensifies cross-border drone attacks during major operations against Ukraine. (ISW, 11.30.25) 

Monday, Dec. 1, 2025

• Ukraine has launched an offer to exchange its $3.2 billion in GDP-linked warrants—a key debt instrument tied to future economic growth—for new bonds and cash, as it seeks to restructure its debt and preserve funds for defense and postwar recovery. The move comes after missed payments and protracted talks, and requires approval from 75% of warrant holders to proceed. The government argues that without restructuring, a rapid postwar rebound would force Ukraine to make potentially massive payouts under the current terms. The new bonds will feature a gradually rising coupon and are expected to improve Ukraine’s debt sustainability in line with IMF targets. (Bloomberg, 12.01.25)
• Fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor and Promsvyazbank, a sanctioned bank tied to Russia's military sector, are the key figures behind A7. Trades in A7A5, billed as the world's first ruble-backed stablecoin, have skyrocketed in the few months since it was launched. Experts say it appears aimed at helping Russia evade Western sanctions and build a parallel financial system. (RFE/RL, 12.01.25)

Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025

• Turkey is considering reopening its land border with Armenia in the next six months, according to people familiar with the matter, doing away with Europe’s last closed frontier of the Cold War-era and paving the way to revived trade in the Caucasus. (Bloomberg, 12.03.25)
• Georgia will not restore diplomatic relations with Russia unless Moscow reverses its recognition of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said Wednesday (MT/AFP, 12.03.25)

Friday, Dec. 5, 2025.

• “People’s Deputy Anna Skorokhod has been notified of suspicion, according to NABU. According to the investigation, a group led by Skorokhod offered a businessman to arrange the imposition of National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC) sanctions against a competitor company for $250,000. They claimed to have influence over the decisions of NSDC members. Anna Skorokhod denies her guilt and believes that the case against her is political persecution.” (Antikor, 12.05.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Fiona Hill, a member of Harvard’s Board of Overseers, said in an interview: "…[W]e haven't also accepted the fact that Ukraine's actually right now got the largest and most capable military in Europe. But Ukraine was also something of a significant military power before the invasion. It was one of the reasons that Russia wanted to seize control of Ukraine..” (NPR, 12.04.25)

V. Useful comparisons of strategic documents

The 2022 NSS treated Russia’s invasion as a defining geopolitical shock that destabilizes Europe and threatens the rules-based order, emphasizing U.S. support for NATO, deterrence, and Ukraine’s sovereignty. The 2025 NSS treats Ukraine more narrowly, as one of multiple conflicts the U.S. helps negotiate, framing it as a diplomatic problem to “end,” not a systemic European crisis.

Evolving Comparison of NSS 2022 and NSS 2025 

Endnotes

1. Sources for this highlight are as follows: Washington Post, 12.04.25, Ukrainska Pravda, 12.04.25, Washington Post, 12.04.25, Axios, 12.04.25 Financial Times, 12.04.25 RBC.ua, 12.04.25RBC.ua, 12.04.25,.  Istories, 12.04.25  Korrespondent.net, 12.04.25,  Whitehouse.gov, November 2025,  RBC.ua, 12.05.25,  Korrespondent.net, 12.05.25 Wall Street Journal, 12.05.25, Korrespondent.net, 12.05.25,  Wall Street Journal, 12.05.25.

2. According to DeepState’s analysts, Russian forces occupied 195 square miles of Ukrainian territory in November, which is almost double the area taken in September—with the heaviest advances near Huliaipole and significant attacks around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. 

3. Russia’s gain of 128 square miles over the week of Nov. 18–25, 2025, based on ISW data, appeared to be unusually high, representing the largest weekly gain for Russia since the 105 square miles it gained the week of July 22–29, 2025. ISW staff explained the change in a Nov. 26 e-mail to RM as caused by a recalibration of the existing frontline to more accurately match reports by Ukrainian military sources and local media, indicating that Russian forces have advanced further than what has been observed through open-source visual means. This recalibration may explain why RM’s calculations, using ISW data, showed that Russia’s gains over the past month (Oct. 28–Nov. 25, 2025) were 180 square miles as compared to 89 square miles over the previous four-week period. ISW cautions that while the measure of the total territory gained following ISW’s recalibration remains as accurate as they can make it, it does not represent a sudden rapid advance. RM’s latest calculation—23 square miles gained from Nov. 25–Dec. 2, 2025, supports ISW’s admonition, and returns closer to the baseline observed since Jan. 1, 2025: across the entire front, Russia has gained an average 41.5 square miles per week. In comparison, a website associated with Ukraine’s open-source intelligence group DeepState calculated total gains by Russia during the Nov. 18–25 period at 49 square miles (128 square kilometers), up from 39 square miles the previous week. Meanwhile, The Economist reported on Nov. 26, 2025, Russia’s gains over the past 30 days at 211 square miles (547 square kilometers), giving Russia control over 19.9% of Ukraine’s territory.Sources for this highlight are as follows: Washington Post, 12.04.25,  Ukrainska Pravda, 12.04.25,  Washington Post, 12.04.25, Axios, 12.04.25 Financial Times, 12.04.25  RBC.ua, 12.04.25RBC.ua, 12.04.25,.  Istories, 12.04.25  Korrespondent.net, 12.04.25,  Whitehouse.gov, November 2025,  RBC.ua, 12.05.25,  Korrespondent.net, 12.05.25 Wall Street Journal, 12.05.25, Korrespondent.net, 12.05.25,  Wall Street Journal, 12.05.25.
4. See Endnote 3.
5. The U.S. government's National Security Strategy 2025 said, "Over the long term, it is more than plausible that within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European. As such, it is an open question whether they will view their place in the world, or their alliance with the United States, in the same way as those who signed the NATO charter." (Whitehouse.gov, November 2025)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin, third right, Russian Presidential foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov, fourth right, and Russian Direct Investment Fund CEO Special Presidential Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries Kirill Dmitriev, right, attend talks with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, second left, and Jared Kushner, U.S. President Donald Trump's son-in-law, third, at the Senate Palace of the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, Dec. 2, 2025. (Alexander Kazakov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)