This Week’s Highlights

• The “NATO 2030: Unified for a New Era” report recommends significant changes to confront the new challenges of an aggressive Russia and a rising China, according to the New York Times. “NATO should designate a special unit within the JISD [Joint Intelligence and Security Division] to monitor and assess how Russia-China cooperation in the military, technological and political fields, including coordination in disinformation and hybrid warfare, impacts Euro-Atlantic security, and provide regular updates to the NAC,” according to the report.
• The $740 billion National Defense Authorization Act, which the House and Senate armed services committees reached consensus on and which is expected to pass Congress this month, would force the Trump administration to impose sanctions on Turkey for buying S-400s and to penalize companies  linked to Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline, The Financial Times reports. The bill also sets 34,500 as the floor for U.S. forces stationed in Germany. The bill also contains a clause on military assistance to Ukraine in the amount of $250 million, including $75 million for lethal weapons, Gazeta.ru reports. 
• The share of Russians who expect their country’s relations with America will improve under the newly-elected U.S. president declined threefold from 46 percent in 2016, after Donald Trump’s election, to 12 percent in 2020 after Joe Biden’s election, according to Russia’s leading independent pollster, the Levada Center.
• The United Arab Emirates is apparently helping to finance the Russian mercenary group Wagner in Libya, according to a report issued last week by the Pentagon’s Inspector General for counterterrorism operations in Africa, a finding which is likely to complicate the United States’ close relationship with the Gulf state, Foreign Policy reports.
• The Kremlin has rebuffed calls by Moldova's incoming President Maia Sandu for Russian troops to withdraw from the separatist region of Transdniester, saying such a move could lead to "serious destabilization," RFE/RL reports. Sandu favors closer ties with the European Union.
• Armenian opposition groups angry over Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian's handling of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict have united by naming a single candidate they want to head a transitional government until new elections can be held. That candidate is Vazgen Manukian, a former prime minister and ex-defense minister, according to RFE/RL.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

• The “NATO 2030: Unified for a New Era” report, commissioned by NATO and written by a 10-member group of experts, says: “The evolving strategies and modus operandi of terrorist networks and groups and the emergence and spread of EDTs [emerging and disruptive technologies] call for adaptive and innovative counterterrorism strategies, means, and methods. … NATO could offer a surge capacity to individual countries whose capabilities may be overwhelmed by e.g. a terrorist attack involving non-conventional means including chemical, biological, or radiological substances.” (NATO, December 2020)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• On Nov. 24, the U.S. State Department stated that sanctions had been introduced against three Russian companies: Nilco Group, Elekon and Aviazapchast. According to Washington, the companies violated the U.S. law on non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in Iran, North Korea and Syria. The new U.S. sanctions are an unfriendly step toward Russia, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. (TASS, 11.30.20)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Iran’s parliament has approved plans to dramatically increase its nuclear enrichment program in contravention of its agreement with global powers as the Islamic regime reels from the aftermath of the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. Fakhrizadeh's targeted killing on Nov. 27 on the outskirts of Tehran, in what appeared to be a military-style operation, has raised concerns about a new confrontation between Iran and Israel or the United States. Russia's Foreign Ministry condemned Fakhrizadeh's killing, saying its intent was "destabilizing the situation and building up conflict potential in the region," and called on "all parties to refrain from taking steps that could lead to an escalation of tensions." (Financial Times, 12.01.20, RFE/RL, 11.30.20)

New Cold War/saber rattling:

• Russia’s National Defense Control Center reported that on Nov. 28, a Sukhoi Su-27 fighter jet scrambled to intercept the U.S. Air Force’s RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft over the Black Sea. After the U.S. aircraft had turned away from the Russian border, the Russian fighter jet returned to its home airbase. (Defense Blog, 11.29.20)
• Britain’s Royal Air Force scrambled Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets on Nov. 28 as multiple Russian aircraft approached U.K. airspace. (Defense Blog, 11.29.20)
• The Russian Pacific Fleet’s press office says that Russia has deployed a MiG-31 Foxhound long-range interceptor to their base in Anadyr, in the Chukotka region opposite Alaska. (Defense Blog, 12.02.20)
• Japan is concerned about the deployment of Russian S-300V4 surface-to-air missile systems on the disputed chain of Kuril islands in the North Pacific. (Defense Blog, 12.02.20)
• Czech President Milos Zeman has reportedly demanded a list of all Russian spies active in the Czech Republic, which security experts say could endanger secret sources of the Czech counterintelligence service. (RFE/RL, 11.30.20)

NATO-Russia relations:

• The “NATO 2030: Unified for a New Era” report recommends significant changes to confront the new challenges of an aggressive Russia and a rising China. NATO did well boosting military deterrence after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea in 2014, the report says. But with a similar challenge to the West arising from an ambitious and authoritarian China, it says the alliance now needs to make similar advances on the political side, including reaching out more consistently to Asian allies anxious about Beijing's ambitions. (New York Times, 12.01.20)
  • “NATO should designate a special unit within the JISD [Joint Intelligence and Security Division] to monitor and assess how Russia-China cooperation in the military, technological and political fields, including coordination in disinformation and hybrid warfare, impacts Euro-Atlantic security, and provide regular updates to the NAC.” (NATO, December 2020)
  • “NATO should continue the dual-track approach of deterrence and dialogue with Russia. The Alliance must respond to Russian threats and hostile actions in a politically united, determined, and coherent way, without a return to ‘business as usual’ barring alterations in Russia’s aggressive behavior and its return to full compliance with international law. At the same time, NATO should remain open to discussing peaceful co-existence and to reacting positively to constructive changes in Russia’s posture and attitude. … The Alliance should continue to treat the NATO-Russia Council [NRC] as the main platform to deliver political messages to Russia.” (NATO, December 2020)
  • “NATO must maintain adequate conventional and nuclear military capabilities and possess the agility and flexibility to confront aggression across the Alliance’s territory, including where Russian forces are either directly or indirectly active, particularly on NATO’s eastern flank. Non-U.S. Allies need to step up their efforts to ensure that their financial commitments and military contributions match NATO’s strategic needs.” (NATO, December 2020)
  • “NRC should serve as a platform to communicate to Russia a unified, two-fold political message: those related to confidence and security building measures and those aimed at underscoring the steadiness of Allied defense and deterrence postures. The conflict in Ukraine must remain high on the agenda of the NRC.” (NATO, December 2020)
• The $740 billion National Defense Authorization Act, which the House and Senate armed services committees reached consensus on and which is expected to pass Congress this month, would force the Trump administration to impose sanctions on Turkey for Russian S-400’s. The bill also includes several measures aimed at checking U.S. President Donald Trump on troop movements. It set 34,500 as the floor for U.S. forces stationed in Germany. Trump has threatened to veto it over its inclusion of language requiring several bases named after Confederate leaders be renamed, and for its exclusion of a repeal of the legal immunity for online companies. (Defense News, 12.03.20, Financial Times, 12.03.20) 
• The U.S. Marine Corps has reported that its specialists conducted a detailed examination of Russian-made AT-4B Spigot anti-tank missile systems, which were recently obtained by partner forces in southern Syria. (Defense Blog, 12.02.20)

Missile defense:

• Russia’s Air and Space Defense Forces conducted a successful test of the new interceptor of the Moscow missile defense system at the Sary-Shagan test site. According to a VKS representative, "after a series of tests the interceptor fully confirmed technical characteristics of the interceptor." The test appears to have taken place on Nov. 26. (RussianForces.org, 11.26.20)

Nuclear arms control:

• The Trump administration has denied a request from the Federation of American Scientists to disclose the size of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile and the number of dismantled warheads. The decision to deny release of the data contradicts past U.S. disclosure of such information. (Federation of American Scientists, 12.03.20)

Counter-terrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• Casualties from cluster bombs, the internationally banned weapons that kill indiscriminately, nearly doubled last year, mostly because of use by the Russian-backed armed forces of Syria, the International Campaign to Ban Landmines-Cluster Munitions Coalition reported Nov. 25. At least 286 people were killed or wounded in 2019 from cluster-bomb attacks or from remnants of the munitions, compared with 149 in 2018, according to the monitoring group. It said Syria accounted for 219 of the 2019 casualties—triple the number there in 2018. (New York Times, 11.25.20)
• Syria and Russia faced renewed pressure over allegations of chemical weapons use as member countries of the global toxic arms watchdog met on Nov. 30. Moscow was urged by Western nations to "transparently" reveal the circumstances of the Novichok nerve agent poisoning of opposition figure Alexei Navalny. Damascus meanwhile faced calls for sanctions at the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons after investigators accused the Syrian regime of sarin attacks in 2017. (AFP, 11.30.20)
• The U.S. military sent M2A2 Bradley fighting vehicles to eastern Syria in September to help protect the hundreds of American troops stationed there following a series of tense encounters with Russian forces. Tensions with Russian troops in the Central Command area of responsibility have since decreased. (Defense Blog, 11.30.20)
• All Russian children repatriated from Syria on Nov. 13 have been handed over to their relatives, the press service of Russian children’s rights commissioner reported. (TASS, 11.30.20)
• A new round of Syria peace talks started Nov. 30 in Geneva, in which representatives of the Assad regime, the opposition and civil society were to discuss "national principles.” The talks are set to last for five days and will be followed by another round in January. (Daily Sabah, 11.30.20)  

Cyber security:

• The U.S. deployed operatives to Estonia in the weeks before the November U.S. presidential election to learn more about defending against Russian hackers as part of a broader effort to hunt down foreign cyberattacks, American and Estonian officials said. (New York Times, 12.03.20)
• IBM has found that companies and governments have been targeted by unknown attackers, prompting a warning from the Homeland Security Department. A series of cyberattacks is underway aimed at the companies and government organizations that will be distributing coronavirus vaccines around the world, IBM's cybersecurity division has found, though it is unclear whether the goal is to steal the technology for keeping the vaccines refrigerated in transit or to sabotage the movements. (New York Times, 12.03.20)

Elections interference:

• Attorneys with special counsel John Durham called for up to a six-month prison term for a former FBI lawyer who altered an email the bureau relied on to seek court authorization to surveil former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page during the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. Kevin Clinesmith pleaded guilty on Aug. 19 to one count of making a false statement, conceding to a federal judge that he falsified the document to say that Page was "not a source" for the CIA. Page has filed a lawsuit saying he was the victim of illegal spying, while U.S. Attorney General William Barr bestowed special counsel status on Durham setting the stage to leave him in place after the Biden administration takes over. (The Washington Post, 12.03.20, RFE/RL, 12.03.20, New York Times, 12.01.20)
• The European Commission will propose for the first time that the EU impose sanctions on "foreign actors" from states such as Russia or China spreading disinformation as it pushes for a tougher oversight mechanism for online platforms. (RFE/RL, 11.30.20)

Energy exports from CIS:

• U.S. lawmakers still plan to step up threatened sanctions linked to the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, but would consult European partner countries first, according to the National Defense Authorization Act, which the House and Senate armed services committees reached consensus on Dec. 3. The legislation also indicates there will not be sanctions against the governments of Germany, other European Union states, Switzerland, Norway, Britain and the EU itself in relation to the pipeline. (DPA, 12.03.20)
• Work on laying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline could resume this weekend in the Baltic Sea waters of Germany, near the Adlergrund shoal. The local Stralsund Waterway Authority is advising ships to be careful when navigating the area starting Dec. 5. Meanwhile, Nord Stream 2 AG, the gas pipeline company, says: “We plan to resume pipe-laying work using a vessel with anchor positioning in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of Germany this year.” (Ukraine Business News, 11.30.20)
• Oil prices hit the highest level since March after major producers agreed to a cautious increase in output that eased fears of oversupply. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 1.1 percent to $49.26 a barrel. U.S. marker West Texas Intermediate climbed by a similar margin to $45.84. On Dec. 3, Russia and OPEC forged an agreement to boost oil supply by 500,000 barrels a day from January, which was a quarter of what they had agreed to previously. (Financial Times, 12.04.20)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Russia's ambassador to the U.S. has defended Russian President Vladimir Putin's refusal to congratulate U.S. President-Elect Joe Biden on his electoral victory, suggesting the Kremlin will only do so once all "legal procedures" have been completed. Putin is the last major world leader to have not congratulated Biden on his victory. (Newsweek, 12.03.20)
• The share of Russians who expect their country’s relations with America will improve under the newly-elected U.S. president declined threefold from 46 percent in 2016, after Trump’s election, to 12 percent in 2020 after Biden’s election, according to Russia’s leading independent pollster, the Levada Center. At the same time, while only 10 percent of Russians expected in 2016 that U.S.-Russian relations would deteriorate under Trump, 30 percent of Russians now expect such deterioration during Biden’s presidency. The share of Russians who expected the bilateral relationship to remain the same increased from 29 percent in 2016 to 45 percent in 2020. (Russia Matters, 12.01.20) 
• Trump has pardoned former national security adviser Michael Flynn, who pleaded guilty in 2017 to lying to the FBI over his contacts with Russians. Trump announced the pardon in a tweet on Nov. 25, a day after media reports said Trump had told aides he planned to include Flynn in a series of pardons he will issue in the final days of his presidency. (RFE/RL, 11.25.20)
• A U.S. human rights activist who has defended the interests of Russian citizens in Europe’s human rights court faces expulsion from Russia. Authorities informed Vanessa Kogan that she “poses a national security threat” when they rejected her fast-track citizenship application and revoked her permanent residence earlier this week. (The Moscow Times, 12.03.20)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia confirmed 27,403 coronavirus cases and 569 deaths on Dec. 4. (The Moscow Times, 12.04.20) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia. For a comparison of the number and rate of change in new cases in the U.S. and Russia, visit this Russia Matters resource.
• Putin has ordered officials to begin vaccinating doctors and teachers against COVID-19 as early as next week. The vaccine to be administered on a voluntary basis is Sputnik V, developed by Russia’s state-run Gamaleya Institute. (Financial Times, 12.02.20)
• More than 100,000 Russians at higher risk of severe coronavirus cases have been vaccinated with the Sputnik V vaccine, Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said Dec. 2. (The Moscow Times, 12.03.20)
• Moscow’s teachers, doctors and social workers are signing up at a rate of 1,000 per hour for the Russian capital’s coronavirus vaccination drive that kicks off Dec. 5, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced. (The Moscow Times, 12.04.20)
• This year, Russia’s GDP is expected to fall by 6 percent, according to the World Bank, as Moscow struggles to tackle the spread of COVID-19 with sporadic lockdowns and scattershot quarantine measures. Russian incomes dropped 8 percent in the second quarter of this year, the largest fall for more than 20 years. (Financial Times, 11.30.20)
• Russia’s economy ministry said on Dec. 4 that it expected inflation in Russia to reach 4.6-4.8 percent in 2020 year-on-year and 0.6-0.7 percent in December, compared to the previous month. (Reuters, 12.04.20)
• Russian cumulative corporate profits reached 6,972.9 billion rubles ($91.7 billion) in September, still significantly down on the 11,689 billion rubles ($153.8 billion) that companies earned in the same period in 2019, and are at their lowest level in four years. (bne IntelliNews, 11.30.20)
• E-grocery in Russia is estimated at 145 billion rubles ($1.9 billion) in 2020 and is forecast to grow to 605 billion rubles ($8 billion) by 2023, online retail consultant InfoLine said. (bne IntelliNews, 11.27.20)
• Russia’s ultra-wealthy have increased their net worth by nearly $500 million in 2020 thanks to a historic stock market rally in November, according to the Bloomberg list of billionaires. Altogether, the 22 Russian billionaires added $486 million to their net worth between the start of the year and Dec. 1. (The Moscow Times, 12.01.20)
• Climate change will cost Russia 9 trillion rubles ($99 billion) due to direct damage to buildings and infrastructure, says Deputy Minister of the Far East and Arctic Aleksandr Krutikov. (bne IntelliNews, 11.30.20)
• Fall 2020 in Moscow will be declared the warmest on record for the capital, according to Russia’s state weather service. (The Moscow Times, 12.01.20)
• Putin has taken steps toward banning Russian government officials with access to state secrets from holding foreign passports as part of his recent changes to the constitution. (The Moscow Times, 12.01.20)
• Russian rights activists on Dec. 3 condemned draft legislation including a significant expansion of who can be labelled a "foreign agent" as a new clampdown on dissent. (AFP, 12.03.20)
• Feminist Russian lawmaker Oksana Pushkina and prosecuted LGBT activist Yulia Tsvetkova have been named among the world’s 100 most inspirational and influential women in 2020 by the BBC. (The Moscow Times, 11.25.20)
• Putin named Sergei Kulikov as a replacement for Anatoly Chubais, the head of state nanotechnology firm Rusnano, on Dec. 2, exposing a rift between the president and the former deputy prime minister whose popularity has waned in recent years. Putin then appointed Chubais as his special representative for ties with international organizations. (The Moscow Times, 12.03.20, Reuters, 12.04.20)
• Putin may be the father of a secretive St. Petersburg millionaire’s 17-year-old daughter, the Proekt investigative website reported Nov. 25. Yelizaveta Vladimirovna Krivonogikh “bears a phenomenal resemblance to the Russian president,” Proekt reported, citing photographs it said it had obtained. (The Moscow Times, 11.25.20)

Defense and aerospace:

• The Russian military has test-launched its vaunted Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missile for at least the third time this year, the Russian Defense Ministry announced Nov. 26. Like the previous test launch held on Putin’s birthday on Oct. 7, a Russian Navy frigate fired the Tsirkon that hit its target in the waters of northwestern Russia. (The Moscow Times, 11.28.20)
• Russian state-controlled United Aircraft Corporation has announced that the Sukhoi Company has manufactured the last batch of Su-34 multirole bombers under a long-term contract with Russia’s Defense Ministry. (Defense Blog, 12.03.20)
• The Russian navy has commissioned its new Project 22160 patrol vessel, Pavel Derzhavin, in a ceremony held on Nov. 27 at Novorossiysk Base, according to TASS. The patrol ship was designed and built using the modular concept of armament. The ship is outfitted with the most advanced radio-technical and sonar systems, the statement says. (Defense Blog, 11.28.20)
• Russian aerospace group Rostec announced Nov. 25 that the Central Research Institute for Precision Machine-Building has successfully completed factory acceptance testing of the new Lotos air-droppable self-propelled artillery gun. (Defense Blog, 11.28.20)
• Russian Black Sea and Baltic fleets are involved in massive navy drills running at their naval bases, the Russian Defense Ministry’s press office reported Dec. 3. On Dec. 3, all of the Black Sea Fleet ships kicked off drills at sea or naval bases to practice naval battles and emergency clean-up efforts, the Fleet’s press office reported. (Defense Blog, 12.03.20)
• Russia plans dramatic upgrades of its TOS-1 heavy flamethrower systems with longer-range “scorching” rockets and real-time targeting capabilities, Izvestia reported. Up to 100 TOS-1 “Buratino” and TOS-1A “Solntsepyok” models of the Russian Armed Forces’ Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Protection Troops will reportedly receive the upgrades “due to the growing range and changing tasks for heavy flamethrowers.” (The Moscow Times, 11.26.20)
• The Russian Defense Ministry has announced that the first batch of Terminator tank support fighting vehicle was officially handed over to the 90th Tank Division in the Chelyabinsk region of the Urals. (Defense Blog, 12.03.20)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Russia’s FSB says it has broken up a cell of the Islamic State that was planning "acts of sabotage and terror" in the Moscow region. Security officers detained "about five suspected members of the cell," one of whom confessed to being an IS member, the FSB said. (RFE/RL, 11.25.20)
• The Second Western District Military Court has handed a 5.5-year jail term to a Russian man for financing members of the Islamic State in Syria. Abdurasul Abdumalikovich was convicted of transferring money to IS members staying in Syria. (TASS, 11.24.20)
• A Russian court has ordered the arrest of a physicist specializing in hypersonic aircraft on suspicion of high treason. Anatoly Gubanov took part in international conferences and projects involving hydrogen-powered hypersonic aircraft, Interfax reported Dec. 3, citing unnamed sources. (RFE/RL, 12.03.20)
• A court in Moscow has extended the pretrial detention of former journalist Ivan Safronov, who is charged with high treason. The Lefortovo district court on Nov. 30 ruled that Safronov must be held at least until March 7, 2021. (RFE/RL, 11.30.20)
• Russian authorities have detained a man suspected of murdering dozens of elderly women in the republic of Tatarstan and nearby regions nearly a decade ago. (The Moscow Times, 12.01.20)
• Russian police have fined more than 1 million people for violating COVID-19 restrictions since the beginning of the pandemic, the Interior Ministry said. (RFE/RL, 11.29.20)
• Russian authorities have said they want to relocate all prisons out of major cities. (The Moscow Times, 12.04.20)
• The Netherlands' top court ruled Dec. 4 that shareholders in dismantled oil giant Yukos can continue to pursue Russia for $50 billion (41 billion euros) in compensation pending a final judgement in a long legal saga. (The Moscow Times, 12.04.20)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The Indian and Russian navies are carrying out a two-day passage exercise (PASSEX) in the Eastern Indian Ocean Region on Dec. 4 and 5. A similar exercise was carried out by the U.S. Navy earlier as part of the Indian Navy’s outreach program to work closely with friendly nations. (India Today, 12.04.20)
• The United Arab Emirates is apparently helping to finance the Russian mercenary group Wagner in Libya, according to a report issued last week by the Pentagon’s Inspector General for counterterrorism operations in Africa, a finding which is likely to complicate the United States’ close relationship with the Gulf state. (Foreign Policy, 11.30.20)
• Russian state arms seller Rosobornexport has delivered military hardware worth $180 billion to its foreign customers over the past two decades. (The National Interest, 11.30.20)
• One of the developers of Russia's Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine announced Nov. 27 that India-based drugmaker Hetero will produce over 100 million doses of the shot. (AFP, 11.27.20)
• The Volgodonsk branch of Russia's AEM Technology has completed the manufacture of the reactor cover for unit 1 of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant under construction in Turkey. The product weighs 93 tons and has a diameter of 4.5 meters. (World Nuclear News, 11.30.20)
• Deutsche Bank executives want to expand in Russia despite a legacy of missteps and massive fines. Outside monitors who watch over the bank's money-laundering controls said it should shut the business instead. (Wall Street Journal, 11.27.20)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• Operations have started on the middle portion of the China-Russia East natural gas pipeline, allowing natural gas from the Power of Siberia system in Russia to be transmitted to the smog-prone Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in northern China. (Reuters, 12.03.20) 
• Eyeing China’s rise as a global military and economic power, U.S. lawmakers unveiled a compromise defense policy bill Dec. 3 that targets China on multiple fronts, with $6.9 billion prescribed for a new Pacific Deterrence Initiative over two years. (Defense News, 12.03.20)

Ukraine:

• The draft U.S. National Defense Authorization Act contains a clause on military assistance to Ukraine in the amount of $250 million, including $75 million for lethal weapons. (Gazeta.ru, 12.04.20)
• U.S. Special Operations Command Europe has announced that Ukrainian special forces have integrated with U.S. Army 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team at the Joint Multinational Readiness Center (JRMC) in Hohenfels, Germany. (Defense Blog, 11.25.20)
• Trump has in 2019 redefined the priority categories for refugee admissions, transforming the U.S. resettlement system from one that gave precedence to the needy—and thus tended to offer the most spots to people from Africa and the Middle East—to one that created easier pathways for Christians, many of them White and from Ukraine and other former Soviet republics. (The Washington Post, 12.02.20)
• Turkey is willing to support the Russia-annexed Crimean peninsula’s return to Ukraine, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Dec. 2. (The Moscow Times, 12.03.20)
• Ukraine is reportedly forming a joint venture company with Turkey to domestically produce as many as 48 of the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 combat drones that lately helped give Azerbaijan a decisive edge in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. (bne IntelliNews, 11.25.20)
• About 10 percent of Ukraine’s small and medium businesses are on the verge of bankruptcy due to coronavirus controls, Dafina Gercheva, resident representative of the U.N. Development Program, estimates. (Ukraine Business News, 11.30.20)
• The Ukrainian Army has received the new 35D6M radar system that can operate in contested electromagnetic environments and provides an ability to detect and track current and emerging threats. (Defense Blog, 12.02.20)
• One person has been killed in a shootout that took place after three armed men tried to illegally cross the border from Ukraine to Russia, the FSB said. (The Moscow Times, 12.04.20)
• The preparatory stage of the project to complete units 3 and 4 of the Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant in Ukraine has been completed and construction work has resumed, Piotr Kotin, acting president of Energoatom, announced. (World Nuclear News, 11.30.20)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• The Kremlin has rebuffed calls by Moldova's incoming President Maia Sandu for Russian troops to withdraw from the separatist region of Transdniester, saying such a move could lead to "serious destabilization." Sandu, who favors closer ties with the EU, vowed to balance ties with the West and Russia after decisively defeating pro-Russian incumbent Igor Dodon in the second round of Moldova's presidential election two weeks ago. (RFE/RL, 11.30.20)
  • The Obnovlenie (Renewal) Party, created and funded by influential local business group Sheriff Holding, secured 29 of the seats in the Moldovan separatist republic of Transnistria’s parliament in the general election on Nov. 29. (bne IntelliNews, 12.04.20)
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said he would step down after a new constitution is adopted, the state-owned BelTA news agency cited him as saying on Nov. 27. "I am not going to shape the constitution to suit my needs," he is quoted as saying. "I am not going to be the president once the new constitution is in place." (bne IntelliNews, 11.29.20)
• The Belarusian Interior Ministry has confirmed security forces used "special means" on Nov. 29 against protesters who continued to demand the resignation of Lukashenko. (RFE/RL, 11.30.20)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has accused the West of interfering in Belarus as he met Lukashenko. Lavrov held talks on Nov. 26 with Lukashenko and other top officials in Minsk in the latest display of Moscow's support for Lukashenko's regime. (RFE/RL, 11.26.20)
• Putin discussed the implementation of a Russian-brokered agreement that stopped the war in Nagorno-Karabakh in separate phone calls with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, the Kremlin said Nov. 24. (RFE/RL, 11.24.20)
• Putin has urged fellow members of a post-Soviet military bloc to support Armenia’s prime minister as he grapples with domestic pressure over his agreement to a Moscow-brokered peace deal with Azerbaijan. (The Moscow Times, 12.02.20)
• Armenian opposition groups angry over Pashinian's handling of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict have united by naming a single candidate they want to head a transitional government until new elections can be held. That candidate is Vazgen Manukian, a former prime minister and ex-defense minister. (RFE/RL, 12.04.20)
• In Karabakh, those returning from the front suggest that Syrian mercenaries are both sending for their family members to come to Azerbaijan and seeking to then settle in southern areas of Karabakh that have now reverted to Azerbaijan. (The National Interest, 11.29.20)
• The French Senate has adopted a resolution urging the country’s government to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh. (TASS, 11.25.20)
• As Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wages a widening military campaign for influence from North Africa to the Caucasus, his forces have relied on a potent weapon to gain a battlefield edge while drumming up domestic support for foreign interventions: homemade armed drones. The drones helped Azerbaijan, an ally of Turkey, prevail over Armenian forces in the fighting over the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region, according to military analysts. (The Washington Post, 11.29.20)
• Turkey and Russia have agreed to monitor a truce over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region from a joint peacekeeping center, Ankara's defense ministry said Dec. 1. (AFP, 12.01.20)
• Nearly 2,800 Azerbaijani soldiers were killed in fighting with ethnic Armenian forces over Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijani officials said, the first time Baku has published casualty figures from the 44-day conflict. (RFE/RL, 12.03.20)
• In Armenia and Azerbaijan, desperate families search for news of the Nagorno-Karabakh war dead. Many hold out hope that their sons may be in hiding or lying wounded in steep, mountainous terrain since a Russian-brokered cease-fire was signed last month. (The Washington Post, 12.04.20)
• More Russians (21 percent)  blame the U.S./NATO countries than any other actor(s) for the resumption of hostilities in Karabakh, according to the results of the  Levada Center’s Nov. 19-26 poll of Russians on the Karabakh conflict. Second and third most-blamed are Azerbaijan (19 percent) and Turkey (15 percent), while Armenia is blamed only by 4 percent, according to the results of the poll. More than two-thirds of Russians favored neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan in the conflict, according to the poll. (Russia Matters, 12.01.20) 
• An unnamed Uzbek government source has said that Uzbekistan plans to repatriate another group of its citizens from a camp for families of Islamic State fighters in Syria. An Uzbek delegation has visited two camps in the Kurdish-controlled part of Syria and spoken with about 100 Uzbek citizens—mostly women and children—about returning to Uzbekistan. (RFE/RL, 11.29.20)
• Kazakhstan said Dec. 4 it will begin producing Russia's coronavirus vaccine later this month. (The Moscow Times, 12.04.20)
• A Gazprom director profited from a secret scheme linked to the construction of a multibillion-dollar gas pipeline between central Asia and China, according to documents seen by the Financial Times. The documents indicate that staff and consultants working for Timur Kulibayev designed a scheme for the Kazakh billionaire to receive at least tens of millions of dollars from contracts related to the vast project. (Financial Times, 12.03.20)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.