This Week’s Highlights

• Antony Blinken, a defender of global alliances and U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s closest foreign policy adviser, is expected to be nominated for secretary of state.  Blinken has stressed the importance of “undermining Russia politically in the international community and isolating it politically.” Biden is also expected to name another close aide, Jake Sullivan, as national security adviser, and Linda Thomas-Greenfield as his ambassador to the U.N. Sullivan acknowledged to the House Intelligence Committee that he had told reporters in 2016 that then-candidate Donald Trump's campaign could have ties to Russia.
• The U.S. Navy on Nov. 24 sent a warship to challenge Russia’s “excessive” maritime claims in the Western Pacific, U.S. officials said. The USS John S. McCain “asserted navigational rights and freedoms” through a freedom of navigation operation near the Peter the Great Gulf, a 7th Fleet statement said, according to Fox News. Russia's Defense Ministry said the destroyer ventured 2 kilometers into Russian territorial waters  in that gulf, near the city of Vladivostok, before turning back after receiving a warning from the Admiral Vinogradov vessel, RFE/RL reports. The Soviet Union declared the area as part of its territorial waters in 1984, but the United States does not recognize it as Russian.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin said Nov. 22 he wouldn't congratulate the winner of the U.S. election until it was clear who the victor was, the Wall Street Journal reports. Putin explained withholding congratulations by saying it doesn't change U.S.-Russian relations one way or another. "You can’t spoil a spoiled relationship. It is already spoiled,” he said. U.S. President Donald Trump eased some lingering post-election uncertainty by tweeting late Nov. 23 that the agency that works with incoming administrations would begin work to assist Biden's team, The Moscow Times reports. “No, that’s not enough,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Nov. 23 when asked whether Trump’s tweet was reason for Putin to congratulate Biden.
• Former U.S. President Barack Obama has targeted Putin for criticism in a new book, suggesting that the Russian president has put the thirst for power over scruples and calling him the leader of a government that resembled a "criminal syndicate," according to RFE/RL. He offered a more favorable view of Dmitry Medvedev, saying the younger Russian leader did not appear to buy all the tales the Kremlin spun and showed enthusiasm for the reset in relations.
• The number of hacker attacks on Russian information resources in 2020 increased 1.6-fold, Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolay Patrushev said Nov. 24, according to TASS. From May to October 2020, U.S. hackers were the main source of cyber threats to Russia, carrying out 36 percent of the total number of attacks, while Russian hackers accounted for 29 percent, according to a report by Check Point Software Technologies cited by Kommersant. 
• Russia has detained a police colonel from the southern region of Dagestan and charged him with offences including terrorism after accusing him of aiding a suicide bomber in a 2010 attack on the Moscow metro, Reuters reports. Russia’s Investigative Committee said it had detained Gazi Isayev, on suspicion he had driven a female suicide bomber, clad in an explosive belt, to a bus station near the town of Kizlyar, from where she would travel some 1,470 kilometers north to carry out the attack.
• Seven European countries that are not members of the EU have aligned themselves with the sanctions imposed by the EU in response to a brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protests in Belarus: North Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania, as well as Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Ukraine, RFE/RL reports.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• The Korean Peninsula’s nuclear problem must be resolved exclusively by diplomatic means through talks, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Nov. 24 as he received credentials from newly-appointed foreign ambassadors, including the new ambassador of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Sin Hong Chol. (TASS, 11.24.20)
• Russian companies Aviazapchast, Elecon and Nilco Group have been subjected to U.S. sanctions due to the alleged violation of U.S. nonproliferation legislation regarding Iran, North Korea and Syria. (TASS, 11.24.20)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif in a phone conversation Nov. 24 expressed adherence to the quickest return of all participants of the JCPOA for Iran’s nuclear program to the implementation of obligations, a statement by Russia’s Foreign Ministry said. (TASS, 11.24.20)
• Iran has begun a new stage of uranium enrichment activities, the country’s permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna said Nov. 22. The insertion of UF6 is the last step before the start of the enrichment process and the separation of uranium-238 from uranium-235, he said, adding that, in addition to first-generation centrifuges, a cascade of 174 new IR-2M centrifuges will be enriching uranium at the Natanz nuclear facility. (World Nuclear News, 11.24.20)

New Cold War/saber rattling:

• The U.S. Navy on Nov. 24 sent a warship to challenge Russia’s “excessive” maritime claims in the Western Pacific, officials said. The USS John S. McCain, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, “asserted navigational rights and freedoms” through a freedom of navigation operation near the Peter the Great Gulf in the Sea of Japan, a 7th Fleet statement said. Russia's Defense Ministry said the USS John S. McCain ventured 2 kilometers into Russian territorial waters in the Peter the Great Gulf, near the eastern Russian port city of Vladivostok, before turning back after receiving a warning from the Admiral Vinogradov vessel. The Soviet Union declared the area as part of its territorial waters in 1984, but the U.S. does not recognize it as Russian. (Fox News, 11.24.20, RFE/RL, 11.24.20)
• The Russian National Defense Control Center has reported that the Russian Navy has been monitoring the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Donald Cook (DDG 75) sailing up the Black Sea. This is the seventh time a U.S. Navy ship has visited the Black Sea since the beginning of 2020. (Defense Blog, 11.24.20)
• The U.S. Special Operations Forces are currently conducting joint exercises in Estonia. The U.S. Air Force MC-130J Commando II and CV-22 Osprey aircraft, assigned to the 352d Special Operations Wing, U.S. Navy SEALS and U.S. Air Force Special Tactics Operators deployed to Estonia to create conditions for a rapid response to an imminent threat with land, air and maritime capabilities to enhance stability in the Baltic Sea region. (Defense Blog, 11.23.20)
• Over the next four years, the British armed forces will receive an extra 16.5 billion pounds ($21 billion), helping to develop cyber- and space capabilities, create an artificial-intelligence agency and "restore Britain's position as the foremost naval power in Europe," British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said. (The Washington Post, 11.20.20)

NATO-Russia relations:

• German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer sparked French President Emmanuel Macron’s ire in a speech, which she followed with an op-ed piece in Politico, in which she stated bluntly: “Europe still needs America.” “Illusions of European strategic autonomy must come to an end: Europeans will not be able to replace America’s crucial role as a security provider,” she wrote. Macron singled out Kramp-Karrenbauer for special criticism, saying he “profoundly” disagreed with her opinion piece. (New York Times, 11.24.20)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Arms control:

• The Trump administration formally shut the door on the Open Skies Treaty Nov. 22, exiting the agreement while moving to get rid of the U.S. Air Force planes that have been used to carry out the nearly three-decade-old accord. “Washington has made its move. Neither European security nor the security of the United States and its allies themselves have benefited from it. Now many in the West are wondering what Russia's reaction will be. The answer is simple. We have repeatedly emphasized that all options are open to us,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement Nov. 22. (RFE/RL, 11.22.20, Wall Street Journal, 11.23.20)

Counter-terrorism:

• Russia said Nov. 23 it had detained a police colonel from the southern region of Dagestan and charged him with offences including terrorism after accusing him of aiding a suicide bomber in a 2010 attack on the Moscow metro. The country's Investigative Committee, the body that probes major crimes, said it had detained Gazi Isayev, on suspicion he had driven a female suicide bomber, clad in an explosive belt, to a bus station near the town of Kizlyar, from where she would travel some 1,470 kilometers (910 miles) north to carry out the attack. (Reuters, 11.23.20)
• Although the Islamic State is battered and scattered, it cannot be fully defeated until the world finds a way to reconcile and resettle the thousands of people displaced by years of war in Iraq and Syria, Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander of U.S. Central Command, said (AP, 11.21.20)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security:

• The U.S. federal government, which has some of the most sophisticated antihacking technologies in the world, was offering only limited assistance to U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's transition operation in securing its email and other communications, despite concerns that the team is likely a top espionage target for Russia, China and other adversaries, according to people familiar with the transition. (Wall Street Journal, 11.23.20)
• From May to October 2020, U.S. hackers were the main source of cyber threats to Russia, carrying out 36 percent of the total number of attacks, while Russian hackers accounted for 29 percent, according to a report by Check Point Software Technologies cited by Kommersant. (TASS, 11.17.20)
• The number of hacker attacks on Russian information resources in 2020 increased 1.6-fold, Russian Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev said Nov. 24. U.S. and Ukrainian special services have been continually seeking to gain unsanctioned access to Crimea's information infrastructure to launch cyberattacks, he said. (TASS, 11.24.20, Interfax, 11.24.20)

Elections interference:

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• Oil prices touched their highest level since March on Nov. 24, rising above $47 a barrel after a raft of positive vaccine news sparked a comeback in one of the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic. Brent crude, the international benchmark, gained more than 3 percent to reach as high as $47.82 a barrel. (Financial Times, 11.24.20)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Putin said Nov. 22 he wouldn't congratulate the winner of the U.S. election until it was clear who the victor was and criticized what he called problems in the U.S. electoral system. Putin also explained withholding congratulations by saying it doesn't change U.S.-Russian relations one way or another. "You can’t spoil a spoiled relationship. It is already spoiled,” he said. The Kremlin then again said on Nov. 24 that Putin will not congratulate Biden. Trump eased some lingering post-election uncertainty by tweeting late Nov. 23 that the agency that works with incoming administrations would begin work to assist Biden's team. “No, that’s not enough,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said when asked whether Trump’s tweet was reason for Putin to congratulate Biden. (Wall Street Journal, 11.22.20, The Moscow Times, 11.24.20, RFE/RL, 11.22.20)
• Antony J. Blinken, a defender of global alliances and Biden’s closest foreign policy adviser, is expected to be nominated for secretary of state. “There’s a flip side” to dealing with Moscow, Blinken has said. Putin, he noted, is “looking to relieve Russia’s growing dependence on China,” which has left him in “not a very comfortable position.” Blinken has also stressed the importance of “undermining Russia politically in the international community and isolating it politically.” Biden is also expected to name another close aide, Jake Sullivan, as national security adviser, and Linda Thomas-Greenfield as his ambassador to the U.N. Sullivan has acknowledged to the House Intelligence Committee that he had told reporters in 2016 that then-candidate Donald Trump's campaign could have ties to Russia. (New York Times, 11.22.20, Fox News, 11.23.20, Russia Matters, 11.24.20)
• Former U.S. President Barack Obama has targeted Putin for criticism in a new book, suggesting that the Russian president has put the thirst for power over scruples and calling him the leader of a government that resembled a "criminal syndicate." He offered a more favorable view of Medvedev, Putin's protege, who served as president from 2008 to 2012, saying the younger Russian leader did not appear to buy all the tales the Kremlin spun and showed enthusiasm for the reset in relations. (RFE/RL, 11.19.20)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia on Nov. 24 confirmed 24,326 new coronavirus cases and a new record of 491 deaths in the past 24 hours. (The Moscow Times, 11.24.20) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia. For a comparison of the number and rate of change in new cases in the U.S. and Russia, visit this Russia Matters resource.
• Russia's Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine is 95 percent effective, its developers said Nov. 24. Developers plan to produce 2 million doses of the Sputnik V vaccine by the end of this year. Russia will start mass vaccination against coronavirus in 2021, Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova said Nov. 24. Russia said Nov. 24 it will make its shot cheaper than its rivals and aims to produce 1 billion doses next year. “The cost of one dose of the Sputnik V vaccine for international markets will be less than $10,” Russia’s sovereign wealth fund RDIF said. Russia’s coronavirus vaccine requires two doses. (CBNC, 11.24.20, RFE/RL, 11.24.20, The Moscow Times, 11.24.20)
• AstraZeneca's Russian manufacturing partner has the capacity to make one billion doses of its vaccine. The British drugmaker this week said the results from late-stage clinical trials in the U.K. and Brazil found its vaccine was as much as 90 percent effective in preventing infections. Working in partnership with the University of Oxford, the company is pricing the vaccine at $3 to $5 a dose. (Wall Street Journal, 11.24.20)
• “We have not yet begun widespread vaccination and the head of state can’t take part in vaccination as a volunteer. It’s impossible,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Nov. 24, in response to a question on whether Putin had been inoculated. “The president can’t use an uncertified vaccine.” (Bloomberg, 11.24.20)
• The amount of money flowing into emerging-market funds last week hit an all-time high, as advances in vaccine development and a weaker dollar boosted investors' risk appetite. Investors channeled $10.8 billion into funds that invest in emerging-market stocks and bonds, according to research from Bank of America and EPFR data, a sum the bank said was the highest ever. (Wall Street Journal, 11.24.20)
• Russia's new nuclear-powered icebreaker, Arktika, on Nov. 24 completed its first operational voyage, piloting the Siyaniye Severa dry cargo ship to the entrance of the Gulf of Ob in the Russian Arctic, Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom announced. (World Nuclear News, 11.24.20)
• Putin on Nov. 23 signed a law on increasing income tax for high earners in the first move away from a flat tax system in place since 2001. Starting next year, the tax rate will rise from 13 percent to 15 percent on incomes over 5 million rubles (about $65,800/55,370 euros at the current exchange rate). (AFP, 11.23.20)
• Perpetual whispers of Putin’s departure from the Kremlin rose in volume this week, after the country’s parliament rubber-stamped a law granting immunity from investigation or prosecution to former presidents and their families. However, speculation over whether the move signals an early retirement for Putin ignores another law, also passed this year, allowing the 68-year-old president to rule for 12 more years after this term—his fourth—ends in 2024. (Financial Times, 11.22.20)
• Human Rights Watch (HRW) has joined other nongovernmental organizations in slamming a bill circulating in the lower house of Russia's parliament, calling it "a potentially very dangerous addition to a growing body of oppressive 'foreign agents' laws." The legislation was expanded last year to journalists and bloggers and, if the new bill introduced in the State Duma last week is adopted, it would include "almost anyone," HRW warned in a statement. (RFE/RL, 11.23.20)
• Russian authorities have arrested Jehovah’s Witnesses in Moscow and across 20 other regions as part of their latest investigation into the religious group that is officially banned as “extremist,” investigators said Nov. 24. (The Moscow Times, 11.24.20)

Defense and aerospace:

• No significant developments.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The trial of Russian Army Private Ramil Shamsutdinov, who is accused of murdering eight fellow servicemen last year in what he claims was the result of his brutal hazing, has begun in the Siberian city of Chita. (RFE/RL, 11.23.20)
• Russia plans to create a national biometric database to identify both citizens and foreign nationals via face recognition and fingerprints, state media reported Nov. 22. Russia’s Interior Ministry told TASS it plans to develop the centralized biometric database in 2021-2023. The ministry has already presented to the government a 55 billion ruble ($720 million) digital transformation program that has a heavy focus on artificial intelligence. AI-based solutions are expected to be used in searching for perpetrators of serious crimes, based on biological samples collected at the crime scene. (The Moscow Times, 11.23.20, bne IntelliNews, 11.24.20)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Officials at the Group of 20 summit meeting released a closing statement on Nov. 22, emphasizing what they called the ''important mandates of the United Nations' systems and agencies, primarily the WHO,'' referring to the World Health Organization. Overall, the communiqué offered little in terms of any breakthrough announcements beyond general appeals for more global cooperation and ''affordable and equitable access'' to therapeutics and vaccines. The coronavirus pandemic has triggered a systemic economic crisis, unprecedented since the Great Depression, Putin said when addressing the G20 summit Nov. 21. (TASS, 11.21.20, New York Times, 11.23.20)
• Russia does not rule out the possibility that other partners can in the future join the “expanded trio” of Russia, the United States, China and Pakistan to facilitate inter-Afghan talks, Lavrov said in a video address to the 2020 Afghanistan Conference in Geneva. (TASS, 11.24.20)
• The Hungarian Energy and Public Utilities Regulatory Authority has approved Atomerőmű Zrt's plan to construct two VVER-1200 reactors at the existing Paks nuclear power plant site. A construction license for the Paks II project is required from the nuclear regulator, the Hungarian Atomic Energy Authority, before building work can start. (World Nuclear News, 11.23.20)
• On Nov. 18, the U.N. General Assembly Third Committee passed a Russian draft resolution on combatting the glorification of Nazism, neo-Nazism and other practices that contribute to "fueling contemporary forms of racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and related intolerance." (TASS, 11.24.20)
• Putin on Nov. 21 extended an embargo on Western food imports introduced in 2014 until the end of 2021, an economic measure that mainly affects EU imports. The Russian embargo was in response to EU sanctions introduced after Russia's annexation of the Crimean peninsula, sanctions that Brussels renewed for another six months at the end of June. (The Moscow Times, 11.21.20)
• Russia has sanctioned 25 British citizens in response to punitive measures taken by London nearly five months ago against the same number of Russians for human rights violations. (RFE/RL, 11.21.20)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• Russia has supplied 3.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China over the Power of Siberia gas pipeline to date, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Nov. 24 after the Sino-Russian energy cooperation intergovernmental commission’s meeting. (TASS, 11.24.20)

Ukraine:

• Industrial production in Ukraine in October 2020 compared to October 2019 decreased by 5 percent, while in September the drop was 4.4 percent, in August 5.3 percent, in July 4.2 percent, June 5.6 percent, May 12.2 percent and April 16.2 percent, the State Statistics Service has reported. (Interfax, 11.23.20)
• Oksana Markarova, the former Ukrainian finance minister, has been nominated to serve as Ukraine’s next ambassador to the United States. In another personnel change, the cabinet fired Olha Buslavets, the acting energy minister, replacing her with Yuriy Boyko, her deputy at the ministry. (Ukraine Business News, 11.23.20)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has topped the rating of trust in politicians—46 percent of Ukrainians trust him, while 51 percent do not, according to the results of a study by the Sociological Group Rating conducted Nov. 15-17. (Interfax, 11.23.20)
• The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine has reported that it had spotted a modern Russian Navodchik-2 ground drone control station for unmanned aerial vehicles in Ukraine.  (Defense Blog, 11.22.20)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met in Yerevan with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian Nov. 21 to discuss the implementation of a Russian-brokered truce in the war over Nagorno-Karabakh. After meeting with Armenian officials in Yerevan, the high-ranking Russian government delegation traveled to Baku for meetings with Azerbaijani officials on Nov. 21. (RFE/RL, 11.21.20)
• Armenia's economy minister, Tigran Khachatrian, has tendered his resignation amid sharp opposition criticism of the government over a recent Russia-brokered cease-fire that ended six weeks of fighting between Azerbaijani and ethnic Armenian forces over the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region. (RFE/RL, 11.24.20)
• Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party will hold a wide majority in parliament after sweeping second-round elections on Nov. 21 that were boycotted by the opposition, preliminary results showed. (RFE/RL, 11.21.20)
• Seven European countries that are not members of the EU have aligned themselves with the sanctions imposed by the 27-member bloc on Belarus in response to a brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protests triggered by a disputed presidential election in August. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in a statement Nov. 20 that the seven countries included EU candidates North Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania, as well as Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 11.20.20)
• The Belarusian government hit the EU and a number of European countries with tit-for-tat sanctions Nov. 22 and suspended all dialogue with the EU on human rights, according to the Belarusian Foreign Minister, Vladimir Makei. (bne IntelliNews, 11.23.20)
• Belarusian police have introduced a color-coded system for marking detainees that determines how severely they will be beaten, according to reports posted on social media. The systematization of police brutality comes as opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has called on the international community to designate the Belarusian police as a terrorist organization. (bne IntelliNews, 11.22.20)
• Tens of thousands of Belarus opposition protesters took to the streets Nov. 22, the latest large-scale rally against President Alexander Lukashenko's contested re-election. For more than three months, Belarus has been gripped by historic weekly opposition rallies following Lukashenko's reelection to a sixth term in August, which Western governments have refused to recognize. (AFP, 11.22.20)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.