Russia in Review, Nov. 18-23, 2016

Because of the American Thanksgiving holiday (Nov. 24-27) this week's Russia in Review is being posted and mailed on Wednesday instead of Friday. Happy holiday to all those who celebrate and we hope that all our readers, whether celebrating or not, can find much to be grateful for!

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

  • No significant developments.

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

  • No significant developments.

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin speaking in a taped interview for the Oliver Stone-produced film “Ukraine on Fire,” which aired on Russian television Nov. 21: “The appearance of the USA and NATO at Sevastopol naval base would have led to severe consequences. The base itself [in Sevastopol] does not mean anything really. I would like to note something here. Why do we so sharply react to NATO expansion? We are concerned about the decision-making practice. I know how decisions are made. When a country becomes a member of NATO, it is already very difficult for this country to resist the pressure from such a large country as the United States, the NATO leader. Missile defense systems, new bases and a new strike system—anything could appear there. What are we supposed to do? We should therefore take counter-measures, that is to aim our missile systems at the objects which, in our opinion, begin to threaten us.” (Pravda.ru, 11.21.16)
  • The chairman of the Russian senate’s Defense and Security Committee has announced the deployment of surface-to-air S-400 missiles and nuclear-capable Iskander systems to Kaliningrad. Viktor Ozerov remarked that deployments are necessary due to concerns that NATO missile defenses in Europe provide infrastructure that could quickly be converted to accommodate shock weapons, such as land-based cruise missiles. When asked to comment on the deployment, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia has been doing everything possible to safeguard its borders in light of “NATO’s actions.” In October, Russia beefed up its anti-ship defenses in Kaliningrad with Bastion coastal defense systems and sent two missile frigates to the exclave equipped with launchers that can fire Kalibr missiles more than 900 miles. (Kommersant, 11.22.16, TASS, 11.22.16, Washington Post, 11.23.16)
  • NATO is criticizing Russia's deployment of anti-ship missiles in its westernmost Baltic region as "aggressive military posturing," and is urging dialogue to cool escalating tensions. NATO said Nov. 22 that the missile deployment near the alliance's borders "does not help to lower tensions or restore predictability to our relations." (AP, 11.22.16)
  • Although the prospect of major-power mechanized ground war between the U.S. and Russia or China may not seem likely, the U.S. Army is tasked with the need to be ready for any ground-combat scenario. What this means, Army leaders explained, is that the current and future combat environment on the globe is both increasingly urban and armed with Russian- and Chinese-made tanks and weapons. (National Interest, 11.18.16)
  • Though the Baltic countries would be vastly outmatched if the Kremlin invaded using its conventional forces, they say they have the will to mount a fierce insurgency. Latvia is expanding its part-time volunteer force, the National Guard, to 8,000 people and in the wake of Trump's election hopes to push the numbers higher. Estonia has enrolled more than 25,000 volunteers in its similar Defense League. Lithuania has published guides about what to do in case of Russian invasion. (Washington Post, 11.18.16)
  • Finland's undersecretary of state, Jori Arvonen, told reporters Nov. 21 that a joint NATO-European Union center is planned for Helsinki to study "hybrid" warfare, including cyber-espionage and propaganda via social media. (Washington Post, 11.21.16)
  • The Pentagon has notified Congress that it plans to stop buying Russian Mi17 helicopters for Afghanistan and will start buying American helicopters. (RFE/RL, 11.19.16)
  • Russia says it has deployed Bal and Bastion coastal missile system on the disputed Kuril Islands in the Pacific Ocean. (RFE/RL, 11.22.16)

Missile defense:

  • No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

  • The United Nations chief has called on Russia and the United States to resume talks to reduce their massive nuclear arsenals. (RFE/RL, 11.22.16)

Counter-terrorism:

  • U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has said: “I'd say this in front of thousands of people… wouldn't it be nice if we actually got along with Russia, wouldn't it be nice if we went after ISIS together, which is, by the way, aside from being dangerous, it's very expensive, and ISIS shouldn't have been even allowed to form, and the people will stand up and give me a massive hand.” (New York Times, 11.23.16)
  • About 10 security specialists from the United States have applied for work in an international anti-terrorism training center being constructed in Chechnya, the republic’s leader has told the press. (RT, 11.23.16)

Conflict in Syria:

  • U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has said: “I had to listen to [Senator] Lindsey Graham, who, give me a break. I had to listen to Lindsey Graham talk about, you know, attacking Syria and attacking, you know, and it's like you're now attacking Russia, you're attacking Iran, you're attacking. And what are we getting? We're getting—and what are we getting? And I have some very definitive, I have some very strong ideas on Syria.” (New York Times, 11.23.16)
  • Moscow would consider working with the United States in Syria if the new U.S. administration “changes its approach” on key issues, said Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the International Affairs Committee of Russia's Federation Council, the upper house of parliament. (The Moscow Times, 11.21.16)
  • Samantha Power, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, on Nov. 21 called weekend attacks by Syrian and Russian forces on Aleppo “horrifying” and singled out specific commanders, shaming them for their participation. (IBS Times, 11.21.16)
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel criticized on Nov. 23 deliberate attacks on hospitals on Syria and said it’s “very regrettable” that Russia is supporting President Bashar al-Assad’s government. German government spokesman Steffen Seibert said on Nov. 21 that Russia and Iran are partly responsible for the suffering of hundreds of thousands of people besieged by Syrian government forces in Aleppo. He said Assad’s forces wouldn’t be able to continue pounding the city without the help of their foreign allies. (AP/Washington Post, 11.21.16, 11.23.16)
  • U.N. special envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura suggested that Donald Trump's shared desire with Russia to collaborate on annihilating Islamist militants presented new circumstances that could alter the war. While such a collaboration could be effective in eradicating the Islamic State, de Mistura said, the carnage and destruction caused by the Syrian and Russian militaries in Syria increasingly make it more problematic politically for Trump to align with Russia. (New York Times, 11.21.16)
  • The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights alleged Nov. 22 that rebels are preventing dozens of families from fleeing eastern Aleppo as Russian-backed government forces intensify their bombardment of the besieged quarter. (AP, 11.22.16)
  • Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin met with Syria's top leadership on Nov. 22. An agreement on creating a “green customs corridor” for agricultural products was signed by Moscow and Damascus during the visit. (The Moscow Times, 11.22.16, RT, 11.23.16)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said Moscow is considering delivering samples of chemical weapons allegedly used by rebels in Aleppo to The Hague for examination by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. Russia claims it can prove Syrian militants used chemical agents. According to a Russian Defense Ministry spokesman, testing has proved the munitions were stuffed with chlorine and white phosphorous. (TASS, 11.21.16, The Moscow Times, 11.22.16)
  • “President-elect Trump and I had a frank and positive conversation [and] … I shared with him my grave concerns that escalating the war in Syria by implementing a so-called no-fly/safe zone would be disastrous for the Syrian people, our country and the world. It would lead to more death and suffering, exacerbate the refugee crisis, strengthen ISIS and al-Qaida and bring us into a direct conflict with Russia, which could result in a nuclear war,” said Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, a 35-year-old Hawaii congresswoman reportedly being considered as a candidate for secretary of state or secretary of defense. (New York Times, 11.22.16, ABC, 11.21.16 )
  • Russian tankers have smuggled jet fuel to Syria through EU waters, bolstering military supplies to the war-torn country where Moscow is carrying out air strikes in support of the government, according to sources with knowledge of the matter. EU sanctions on fuel supplies to Syria do not affect the Russian air group based at the Khmeimim airbase as its combat operations in Syria are part of Russia's contribution to the fight against terrorism, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov has said. (Vestnik Kavkaza, 11.23.16, Reuters, 11.22.16)
  • According to an anonymous source at Russia’s Defense Ministry, the Nov. 13 crash of a Russian fighter jet trying to land on the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier resulted from a snafu with a cable aboard the carrier and the subsequent failure of both the plane’s engines. (Gazeta.ru, 11.23.16)

Cyber security:

  • On his first day in office, President-elect Donald Trump will direct the Department of Defense and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to develop “a comprehensive plan to protect America’s vital infrastructure from cyberattacks, and all other form of attacks.” (Cyberscoop, 11.21.16)
  • The Kremlin's vital information systems are impervious to hacking, according to Sergei Plugotarenko, director of the Russian Association for Electronic Communications. Plugotarenko says the Kremlin's systems are divided into separate tiers, external and internal, with the latter housing critical information that might be of interest to hackers. (The Moscow Times, 11.21.16)
  • The Czech Justice Ministry says that both the United States and Russia have requested the extradition of Yevgeny Nikulin—a 29-year-old Russian citizen who was arrested in Prague on U.S. charges of hacking and data theft. (RFE/RL, 11.23.16)

Energy exports from CIS:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Nov. 20 that he sees no obstacles to an OPEC agreement this month after oil exporters made major progress in overcoming differences as he reaffirmed Russia is willing to freeze crude output at current levels. (Bloomberg, 11.20.16)

Bilateral economic ties:

  • See Pentagon/helicopter news in “Military issues” section above.

Other bilateral issues:

  • When asked if he will have a reset with Russia, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said: “I wouldn't use that term after what happened, you know, previously. I think—I would love to be able to get along with Russia and I think they'd like to be able to get along with us. It's in our mutual interest.” (New York Times, 11.23.16)
  • "As for a ‘reset’ in relations, perhaps, we can agree with the president-elect. This word has indeed discredited itself, as the effects of this ‘reset’ are not the ones we would like to see," Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Nov. 23. "Now we know that the level of our bilateral relations leaves a lot to be desired, they could hardly be worse, they have reached the bottom," he said. (RBTH, 11.23.16)
  • Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said he and President-elect Donald Trump share an interest in normalizing relations between the U.S. and Russia. At a press conference following an economic summit in Peru, Putin said that Trump “reaffirmed his intent to normalize relations with Russia” in their recent phone call, “and naturally I said the same.” (AP, 11.21.16)
  • U.S. President Barack Obama had a brief conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Nov. 20 on the sidelines of the APEC summit. Obama said he urged Putin to instruct his aides to work with the U.S. and Europe to finally resolve the issue of Ukraine. He said he told Putin the goal is "to see if we can get that done before my term is up." Obama also told Putin he is "still deeply concerned about the bloodshed and chaos" that's being caused by attacks on Aleppo. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the two leaders "expressed regret that it was not possible to make progress in Ukraine," but added that the remaining months of Obama's presidency should be used to pursue a resolution of the Syrian crisis. Obama said he did not discuss alleged Russian meddling in the U.S. election in the four-minute meeting. (Wall Street Journal, 11.20.16, New York Times, 11.21.16, Bloomberg, 11.20.16)
  • ''Russia is a very significant military power, but they're not worrying right now about how to rebuild after a hurricane in Haiti. We are,'' U.S. President Barack Obama said in Lima. ''And [as] I've said before, that's a burden that we should carry proudly.'' (New York Times, 11.21.16)
  • Before Donald Trump takes the oath of office, senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham will lead a congressional delegation to Ukraine, Georgia and Estonia to reassure these European partners that Washington is still committed to confronting Russian aggression. Starting in January, the pair will hold a series of hearings on Russia. In addition, Graham has said he wants to use his chairmanship of the Senate Appropriations Foreign Operations subcommittee to steer new funds to European allies for battling Moscow. There's also new legislation in the House to increase sanctions on Russia. (Washington Post, 11.20.16)
  • U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has picked South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley to serve as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. In September 2015, she signed a letter with 14 other GOP governors expressing opposition to the Iran nuclear deal. Her views on Russia are less well-known. (Wall Street Journal, 11.23.16)
  • Retired Gen. James "Mad Dog" Mattis, a hardliner on Iran and a revered figure in the Marine Corps, would make an excellent choice for defense secretary, President-elect Donald Trump said Nov. 20. Mattis has expressed deep wariness of Russian intentions, saying it wants “to break NATO apart.” He has also supported the idea of arming Ukraine: "It's going to be a tragedy so long as Russia decides to continue what they're doing, and we're just asking ourselves are we willing to support the Ukrainian people who want to defend themselves. And on that one, I'm pretty one-way about it. Of course, we support them,” Mattis said at a Senate hearing in January 2015. On Syria Mattis said at the same time that he deplored the "reactive crouch" the U.S. military has been forced to take and that he didn't know what "our policy is on Syria." In April 2016 he said: "We know that vacuums left in the Middle East seem to be filled by either terrorists or by Iran or their surrogates or Russia." (Military.com, 11.20.16, Politico, 11.20.16, Military Times, 04.22.16, New York Post, 07.08.15, Senate.gov, 01.27.15)
  • Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney "is under active and serious consideration" to be Donald Trump's secretary of state, Vice President-elect Mike Pence said Nov. 20. Romney actively opposed Trump's candidacy and has called Russia—a country that the next president is eager to repair relations with—the top geopolitical threat to America. (Wall Street Journal, 11.20.16)
  • A high-ranking and well-informed source has told online Russian news publication Gazeta.ru that, in their search for channels of communication with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, Kremlin representatives have used members of Russia’s Jewish business circles who have contacts with the family of his daughter Ivanka’s husband, Jared Kushner. (Gazeta.ru, 11.21.16)
  • Pinchas Goldschmidt, chief rabbi of Moscow and the current president of the Conference of European Rabbis, said there was a clear difference between Jews in Western Europe and Britain, who seemed worried about Donald Trump, and those in Eastern Europe and Russia, who were more hopeful. The split was somewhat similar to one seen in the United States, he said. "I think most of the Jews in the United States had voted for Clinton, and there were two distinctive groups who voted for Trump, the Orthodox Jews and the Russian-speaking Jews," he said. (Washington Post, 11.23.16)
  • A U.S. appeals court on Nov. 21 denied a new trial for Viktor Bout, a Russian arms trafficker serving a 25-year prison sentence for plotting to sell missiles to people he thought were Colombian rebels. (Reuters, 11.21.16)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

  • President Vladimir Putin has said he wants to extend Russia's ban on Western food imports as long as possible in order to help local producers. (The Moscow Times, 11.23.16)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has said a criminal case against the country's former economic-development minister Alexei Ulyukayev has no impact on privatization plans. (RFE/RL, 11.21.16)
  • Ikea is putting $1.6 billion into new stores in Russia over the next five years. French home-improvement and gardening retailer Leroy Merlin in September announced a 2-billion-euro plan to more than double the number of outlets in Russia over the same period. Pfizer Inc. is building a new drug factory, while Mars Inc. is expanding plants for chewing gum and pet food. (Bloomberg, 11.22.16)
  • As of Sept. 30, there were 854,187 Russians registered as living with HIV. In 2015, 95,475 new HIV cases were registered. During the first nine months of 2016, another 75,962 HIV diagnoses were handed out. (The Moscow Times, 11.18.16)
  • The Russian government may alter the country's famed 13% flat tax rate, in a move officials say is intended to combat poverty. (The Moscow Times, 11.21.16)

Defense and aerospace:

  • Russia successfully carried out the first test of an intercontinental ballistic missile designed for the upcoming Barguzin railway-based military system. (The Moscow Times, 11.22.16)
  • Russia's Defense Ministry has spent 53.2 million rubles ($829,000) to pay for the funerals of more than 1,000 active-duty soldiers and conscripts in the past four years. (The Moscow Times, 11.23.16)

Security, law enforcement and justice:

  • Isa Ragimov, from Russia's southern republic of Dagestan, was found guilty of organizing a cell for pan-Islamic group Hizb ut-Tahrir and sentenced to 12 years in prison by a St. Petersburg court. (The Moscow Times, 11.21.16)

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

General developments and relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • Russia and China fulfilled military and technical cooperation contracts worth $3 billion over the past year, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said at a meeting with chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference Yu Zhengsheng on Nov. 23. Expanding military ties with China was “an absolute priority," Shoigu said. “Russian-Chinese relations are at an unprecedented high and are continuing to grow steadily." (TASS, 11.23.16, The Moscow Times, 11.23.16)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law ratifying the Russian-Chinese agreement on cooperation in the war on terror. The agreement contains articles on joint measures to detect and effectively suppress attempts to plan and carry out terrorist attacks. (TASS, 11.22.16)
  • Russia and China say they will push for a free-trade area in the Asia-Pacific region. The presidents of the two countries, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, held talks on Nov. 19 on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Lima, Peru. (RFE/RL, 11.20.16)
  • Egypt, Israel, Syria and Ukraine are interested in collaborating with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in a variety of ways, SCO Secretary-General Rashid Alimov has said. (TASS, 11.23.16)
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Nov. 20 announced her intention to seek a fourth term in office, noting a global situation that is "realigning" after Donald Trump's election, particularly in regard to Russia. (Washington Post, 11.20.16)
  • On Nov. 20, voters in the first round of a French presidential primary for center-right candidates defied pollsters' predictions by throwing huge support behind French politician François Fillon and his establishment brand of fiscal and social conservatism. Fillon has set himself apart by calling for detente with President Vladimir Putin of Russia to better fight against Islamic State and indicated he favors cooler relations with the U.S., saying Europe shouldn't be Washington's "vassal." (Wall Street Journal, 11.21.16)
  • Juri Ratas, the new leader of a party whose strongest support comes from the country's ethnic Russians, has been named the next prime minister of Estonia. Despite having the second-largest number of seats in Estonia's Parliament, the Center Party had long been shut out of power for its links to the United Russia party of Vladimir Putin. But the Center Party successfully formed a coalition of sharply contrasting ideologies by teaming up with the left-leaning Social Democrats and the right-wing IRL party. (New York Times, 11.20.16)
  • The EU Parliament voted on a non-legislative resolution that calls for the EU to “respond to information warfare by Russia.” (RT, 11.23.16)
  • Vietnam's legislature on Nov. 22 endorsed the government's decision to scrap plans to build the country's first two nuclear power plants. The contracts to build the plants had been awarded to companies from Russia and Japan. (AP, 11.22.16)
  • The Philippines’ President Rodrigo Duterte praised Russia as a "great country" in his first meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin in Peru. Duterte lashed out at Western "bullying" and "hypocrisy" and said when it came to alliances, the United States could not be trusted. (RFE/RL, 11.20.16)
  • Switzerland has replied to Moscow’s demands for an explanation about why Swiss fighter jets flew alongside a Russian government airliner heading to Peru by saying on Nov. 19 that the jets were making a routine check of the plane’s identity. (RFE/RL, 11.19.16)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with U.N. Secretary-General Designate Antonio Guterres in Moscow on Nov. 24. (TASS, 11.23.16)
  • Iran and Russia have signed an agreement on introducing simpler rules for the issuance of travel visas to tour groups. (TASS/RBTH, 11.23.16)
  • Britain’s high court has upheld the government’s right not to reveal sensitive intelligence documents that might shed light on the 2012 death of a fugitive Russian. Alexander Perepilichnyy had reported details of an alleged $230 million fraud linked to the Kremlin. The case will get a new coroner who will be allowed to see the sensitive material before a March inquest. (Guardian, 11.23.16)

Ukraine:

  • France and Germany are preparing a ministerial meeting of the "Normandy Four" to be held in the Belarusian capital Minsk on Nov. 29. (TASS, 11.23.16)
  • Ukraine wants EU leaders to urge Donald Trump to keep U.S. sanctions against Russia as pro-Western President Petro Poroshenko prepares to discuss more international support for his country. Poroshenko visits Brussels on Nov. 24 for talks on a €600 million aid package and a European visa-waiver scheme for Ukrainians, as well as an EU trade and security deal with Kiev. (Financial Times, 11.20.16)
  • On Nov. 21 Ukraine marked the Day of Dignity and Freedom, a holiday commemorating the 2013 beginning of the Euromaidan protests that ousted former President Viktor Yanukovych. (RFE/RL, 11.21.16)
  • Two more suspected members of an alleged Ukrainian “saboteur group” have been arrested in Russian-annexed Crimea, Russian law enforcement officials say. Suspects Oleksiy Stohnyy and Hlib Shablyy, both former officers of the Ukrainian armed forces, were arrested last week. (RFE/RL, 11.21.16)
  • Russia's Defense Ministry said Nov. 21 that Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) operatives had abducted two of its servicemen, who were later described by Kiev as deserters from the Ukrainian Army. In Kiev, the SBU confirmed that two servicemen had been detained on the border with Crimea, but it described them as former Ukrainian Army soldiers, who are now facing charges of treason for defecting to Russia. (New York Times, 11.21.16)
  • “Regardless of who held the reins of power, nothing changed for ordinary citizen. The population was systematically robbed, the citizens were fleeced, the Ukrainian people were plundered,” Vladimir Putin said in his interview for the Oliver Stone-produced film “Ukraine on Fire,” which aired on Russian television Nov. 21. (TASS, 11.21.16)
  • The Trump Foundation has reported a $150,000 gift from the foundation of Viktor Pinchuk, a powerful Ukrainian steel magnate. A spokesman for Pinchuk's foundation said the gift was made as part of an agreement for Trump to speak to a conference Pinchuk organized in September 2015 called "How New Ukraine's Fate Affects Europe and the World.” In that 20-minute speech and Q&A Trump, who was already a presidential candidate, said: “The United States has been supportive [of Ukraine], but more verbally than anything else. Our president is not strong and he is not doing what he should be doing for Ukraine.” Pinchuk had also pledged large donations to the foundation of Trump's opponent, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. (Washington Post, 11.22.16, Belfer Center, 11.23.16)
  • U.S. President-elect Donald Trump did not mention Ukraine in his lengthy Nov. 22 interview to the New York Times. (Belfer Center, 11.23.16)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev said he won’t hand power to his children to succeed him. (Bloomberg, 11.23.16)
  • Georgia has joined the United States in criticizing a new joint military force that has been established by Russia and Georgia's breakaway region of Abkhazia. (RFE/RL, 11.23.16)
  • U.S. career diplomat James Warlick says he will step down on Dec. 31 as co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group mediating talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory. Russian law firm Egorov Puginsky Afanasiev & Partners said he will join the company's Washington office in January. (RFE/RL, 11.21.16)

News items for this digest curated by Simon Saradzhyan, director of the Russia Matters Project.