5 Things to Know

1. Donald Trump’s promise to end the war in Ukraine by his inauguration now puts the president elect in a position of having to choose between competing proposals from advisers united by a common thread—a sharp break from President Joe Biden’s approach of letting Kyiv dictate when peace talks should begin while arming Kyiv “as long as it takes,” according to WSJ. Instead, these proposals uniformly recommend freezing the war in place and forcing Ukraine to suspend its quest to join NATO for at least 20 years, this newspaper reported. One of these proposals is attributed to Mike Pompeo and is likely to push for a settlement that doesn’t appear to give a major win to Moscow, according to WSJ. In contrast, Richard Grenell’s proposal gives priority to Trump’s desire to end the war as swiftly as possible, even if it means forcing Kyiv into significant concessions. Throughout his campaign for the White House, Trump had bashed Biden’s handling of Ukraine, complaining that Kyiv “fleeced the U.S. by obtaining weapons worth billions of dollars free of charge,” and describing Zelenskyy as the “greatest salesman,” according to WSJ. Trump has also touted that he had a plan to resolve the conflict quickly, but noted “I can’t give you those plans because if I give you those plans, I’m not going to be able to use them.”
   1. The only way to achieve a swift end to Ukraine’s war against the Russian invasion would be to force his country into a defeat, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who had a phone conversation with Trump after the latter’s victory. The phone call included two surprises: Elon Musk was also on the line, and Zelenskyy was somewhat reassured by what he heard from Trump, two sources with knowledge of the call told Axios.
   2. After a significant wait, Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Trump on his victory in the U.S. presidential election, stating he’s ready to hold discussions with the president elect on stabilizing U.S.-Russian relations, including the issues of Ukraine and strategic stability. “It seems to me, it deserves attention what was said about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis,” Putin said in his first comments on Trump’s re-election, which he made in the course of the third hour of his remarks at the Valdai conference on Nov. 7. In earlier comments, Trump said he is planning to speak to Putin.  
   3. Russian stock investors expressed cautious optimism over Trump’s victory. The Moscow Exchange Index rose by 3.6% Nov. 6 on news of Trump's victory, with Russian energy giants Gazprom and Novatek among the best performers, both rising nearly 5% shortly after opening, according to Istories and FT. Meanwhile, JPMorgan’s Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa Securities jumped 18.3%, its biggest daily rise in over two years, according to FT.[1] “All the talk this morning is about how to trade Russia and whether sanctions will be thrown off,” one portfolio manager told FT the morning after the Nov. 5 elections.
2. At a summit this week, European Union leaders debated whether they can keep the Ukrainian war effort going if Trump decides to shut off support from the U.S., according to Bloomberg. While some EU leaders argued that the European Commission should be coming up with proposals on how the bloc will respond if U.S. aid is shut off, others were skeptical, according to this news agency. “Some EU leaders say that in such a case, the EU should take on full financial responsibility for Ukraine. I see this as impossible, and Slovakia will not agree to it,” Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said. In spite of this disagreement, Zelenskyy, who attended the two-day summit in Budapest, urged European leaders to supply Kyiv with more weapons rather than pushing for negotiations with Moscow, according to Meduza. 
3. “I have previously stated that we have reached red lines. The West’s calls to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, a nation with the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, reveal the reckless adventurism of certain Western politicians,” Putin told the annual conference of Russia’s Valdai Club. “Such blind faith in their own impunity and exceptionalism could lead to a global catastrophe,” he warned. When asked by a Pakistani general to share his vision for maintaining strategic stability after New START expires, Putin claimed that Russia “never refused to continue the dialogue in the field of strategic stability,” but the U.S. cannot hope for a dialogue in that field with Russia while seeking to inflict a strategic defeat upon it.” He then added, “Let's see how the new future [U.S.] administration will formulate its proposals, if there are any at all.”
4. This week multiple reports emerged that North Korean troops had engaged their Ukrainian counterparts, fighting on the Kremlin’s side in Russia’s Kursk region, likely starting on Nov. 4. Russian and North Korean leaders continued to refuse to explicitly acknowledge the presence of a DPRK contingent in western Russia, in spite of these reports, accompanied by photos of purportedly wounded North Korean soldiers (who are reportedly paid $2,000 per month for participating in combat in Russia). However, the very fact that Vladimir Putin found time for a reportedly unscheduled meeting with North Korea’s visiting foreign minister, Choe Son-hui, while Russia's Senate unanimously voted to ratify a mutual defense treaty with the DPRK, reaffirms how important the Hermit Kingdom’s support has become for the Kremlin in its aggression against Ukraine.
5. In the past month (Sept. 30–Oct. 31, 2024), Russian forces have gained 206 square miles of Ukrainian territory, and in the first week of November, an additional 75 square miles, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained zero square miles, according to RM staff's Nov. 8 estimate based on data provided for that period by the Institute for the Study of War. 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• On Nov. 4, Ukrainian officials said that their forces had fired at North Korean soldiers in combat for the first time since their deployment by Russia to its western Kursk region. “The first military units of the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] have already come under fire in Kursk,” Andriy Kovalenko, Ukraine’s top counter-disinformation official within the national security council, said on Telegram. (FT, 11.04.24)
  • On Nov. 5, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, speaking to the South Korean television network KBS, said that there were "already [combat] contacts" between the Ukrainian and North Korean sides, and that Ukrainian officials expected a "more significant number" in the next weeks, which they would "review and analyze." (WP, 11.07.24)
  • North Korean soldiers fighting alongside Russian troops in the Kursk region have already sustained casualties, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Nov. 7. “Currently, 11,000 North Korean soldiers are present on Russian territory near the border with Ukraine, specifically in the Kursk region. Some of these troops have already taken part in combat operations against Ukrainian forces, and there are already losses,” Zelenskyy said. (Meduza, 11.08.24)
    • Zelenskyy spoke with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, in particular, about the participation of the North Korean military in the Russian aggression against Ukraine. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.08.24)
• On Nov. 4, Russian President Vladimir Putin met North Korea’s foreign minister, Choe Son-hui, in the Kremlin on Nov. 4. The foreign minister last week said North Korea had “no doubt whatsoever that under the wise leadership of the honorable Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Russian army and people will surely achieve a great victory in their sacred struggle to defend the sovereign rights and security of their state.” (FT, 11.04.24)
• On Nov. 4, the U.S. called out Russia and China at the U.N. Security Council for “shamelessly protecting” and emboldening North Korea. South Korea and the EU also condemned the deployment and expressed concern that Russia could reward North Korea with transfers of nuclear and ballistic technology. (FT, 11.04.24)
• China has publicly remained muted on North Korea’s troop dispatch to Russia, a sign it’s unhappy with Kim adding risks to the geopolitical landscape. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Beijing was “unaware of specifics of cooperation between Russia and North Korea” at a regular briefing in Beijing Nov. 1, refusing to elaborate. (Bloomberg, 11.06.24)
• Russia will pay North Korean soldiers about $2,000 per month to fight in the war against Ukraine, The Korea Herald reported. (Meduza, 11.04.24)
• More than 3,700 North Korean nationals entered Russia in the third quarter of 2024, citing “studies” as the purpose of their visit, according to data from the FSB Border Service, highlighted by Mediazona. From July to September alone, 3,765 North Koreans arrived for “educational purposes” — a record number, Mediazona notes. (Meduza, 11.08.24)
• Lawmakers from Russia's upper-house Federation Council voted unanimously on Nov. 6 to ratify a mutual defense treaty with North Korea. (MT/AFP 11.06.24)
• South Korean intelligence believes Russia could fight alongside Pyongyang in the event of a war against Seoul, the South Korean daily the Korea Herald reported Nov. 3, citing a lawmaker briefed on the matter. (MT/AFP 11.04.24)
• While the U.S. says Russia would face serious consequences for deploying North Korean troops in Ukraine, Washington's options are limited, particularly ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election. It has levied unprecedented sanctions on Moscow and Pyongyang that both countries have adapted to through workarounds. Analysts say the U.S. might do better to more zealously enforce existing sanctions and close loopholes. For Zelenskyy, the lack of a robust response by the West to the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia likely would embolden Putin to involve North Korea more actively in the war. (WSJ, 11.03.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• The U.S. Justice Department on Nov. 8 unsealed criminal charges that detail a plot backed by Iran to kill President-elect Donald Trump before the Nov. 5 election. A criminal complaint filed in federal court in New York City alleges that an unnamed official in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps instructed a contact to develop a plan to surveil and ultimately kill Trump, the Justice Department said in a news release. (RFE/RL, 11.08.24)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Ukraine and Russia exchanged bodies of fallen soldiers: Russia received 37 bodies, Ukraine received 563 bodies. (media zone, 11.08.24)
• According to the Ukrainian prosecutor's office, Russian soldiers captured three Ukrainian fighters during the offensive on Selidovo on Oct. 23 and shot them some time later. During the assault on Ukrainian fortifications in the same Pokrovsk direction on Nov. 1, Russian Armed Forces soldiers killed three more prisoners of war with automatic weapons. (Istories, 11.05.24)
• A Russian court in Rostov-on-Don sentenced Russian soldiers Stanislav Rau and Anton Sopov to life imprisonment in the case of the murder of nine members of the Kapkanets family in occupied Volnovakha in the Donetsk region. According to the investigation, on the night of Oct. 28, 2023, Rau and Sopov illegally entered the Kapkanets family cottage and shot all nine residents of the house, including a 4-year-old and a 9-year-old child, "motivated by political, ideological, racial, national or religious hatred." (Istories, 11.08.24)
• In late August alone, Moscow fired over 200 missiles and drones at the country’s power production facilities, capping a campaign that has cut Ukraine’s electrical generation capacity by more than 9 gigawatts, according to Gennadii Riabtsev, chief researcher at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies and an energy market expert. That’s eight power plants and over 800 heat supply facilities — all gone. (Politico, 11.04.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month (Sept. 30–Oct. 31, 2024), Russian forces have gained 206 square miles of Ukrainian territory, and in the first week of November, an additional 75 square miles, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained zero square miles, according to RM's Nov. 8 estimate based on data provided for that period by the Institute for the Study of War. (RM, 11.08.24, ISW and UNOCR, 11.07.24)
• On Nov. 2, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces, which it described as “the enemy,” occupied Kurakhivka, Shakhtarske, and advanced near Maksymilianivka, Verbove, Novoselidivka, Vovchenka and Maksymivka. (RM, 11.08.24)
• On Nov. 3, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Maksymivka, Yasna Polyana, Bohoyavlenka and in Kreminna Balka, while the Ukrainian Defense Forces regained the position in Druzhba. (RM, 11.08.24)
• On Nov. 3, Russia claimed to have captured another Ukrainian village, just a dozen kilometers from the key eastern logistics hub Pokrovsk, as its troops advance rapidly. The Russian Defense Ministry said it had "liberated the settlement of Vichneve following offensive operations." (MT/AFP, 11.03.24)
• On Nov. 3, Russia’s Defense Ministry said Ukraine launched nearly 20 drones at targets in southern Russia, but it claimed all were intercepted. (RFE/RL, 11.03.24)
• On Nov. 4, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Stepanivka and advanced near Kurakhove, Kolisnykivka, Bohoyavlenka and Kreminna Balka. (RM, 11.08.24)
• On Nov. 5, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Hryhorivka, Pershotravneve, Bohoyavlenka and Yasna Polyana. (RM, 11.08.24)
• On Nov. 5, a Russian strike on an infrastructure facility in eastern Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia killed six people and wounded nine others, the regional governor said Nov. 5. (MT/AFP 11.05.24)
• On Nov. 6, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Novooleksiyivka, Kreminna Balka, Maksymivka, Bohoyavlenka and Toretsk. (RM, 11.08.24)
• On Nov. 6, Russia massed some 45,000 troops in Kursk likely in preparation of a counteroffensive to expel Ukrainian forces from the region, Ukrainian commander in chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskiy said on Nov. 6, adding that Moscow was also seeking to beef up its effectiveness with North Korean soldiers. (RFE/RL, 11.06.24)
• On Nov. 6, Ukraine said a drone strike hit a naval base in a port city on Russia’s Caspian Sea coast, in Kyiv’s first-ever attack on a target in the region some 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) from the frontline. (MT/AFP 11.06.24, Bloomberg, 11.06.24)
• On the night of Nov. 7, Russian forces launched 106 attack "Shaheds" and unidentified drones at Ukraine. In particular, from the directions of Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Orel, as well as from occupied Crimea. (RBC.ua, 11.08.24)
• On Nov. 7, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Novooleksiyivka and advanced near Novodmytrivka, Novooleksandrivka and Maksymivka. (RM, 11.08.24)
• On Nov. 7, Russian attacks on the southeastern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia killed four and wounded 18, Internal Affairs Minister Ihor Klymenko said. (RFE/RL, 11.07.24)
• On Nov. 6, Maj. Gen. Pavel Klimenko, who commanded Russia’s 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, was killed in Ukraine, according to several popular Telegram channels, which his sisters later confirmed on social media. He is the eighth Russian general killed during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Klimenko commanded a motorized rifle brigade in Russia’s proxy militia in occupied Donetsk before it was integrated into the regular military. (Meduza, 11.08.24)
• On Nov. 8, Russia kept up the pressure on Ukraine's cities, striking the southern region of Odesa and Kharkiv, the country's second-largest city. At least one person was killed, and at least 38 others, including a baby, were wounded, according to regional officials. (RFE/RL, 11.08.24)
• On Nov. 8, Russian aerial bombing on the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv injured at least 25 people, five of whom were hospitalized, according to Ukrainian authorities. (Meduza, 11.08.24)
• Russia has captured 1,146 square kilometers in Ukraine since Aug. 6, about a quarter more than in the first seven months of the year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence calculations based on changes recorded by the DeepState map service that’s maintained in cooperation with the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. Some American intelligence agencies and military officials are pessimistic about Ukraine’s ability to stop Russian advances. (NYT, 11.01.24, Bloomberg, 11.02.24)
• American military officials say weapons supplies are no longer Ukraine’s main disadvantage. Ukraine has sharply narrowed Russia’s artillery advantage, U.S. officials said. Ukraine’s biggest shortcoming now is troops, U.S. officials said. Ukrainian officials have struggled to put in place a military draft that brings in enough troops. (NYT, 11.01.24)
• The Ukrainian military is struggling to recruit soldiers and equip new units. The number of its soldiers killed in action, about 57,000, is half of Russia’s losses but still significant for the much smaller country. (NYT, 11.01.24)
• The Pentagon assesses that Ukraine has enough soldiers to fight for six to 12 more months, one official said. After that, he said, it will face a steep shortage. (NYT, 11.04.24)
• Mark Rutte, NATO’s new secretary general, said on Nov. 4 that more than 600,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured since the start of the war. Those losses are behind North Korea’s deployment of about 10,000 troops to Russia, forces that Moscow wants to use to help push Ukraine out of Kursk, U.S. officials say. (NYT, 11.04.24)
• U.S. officials estimate that Russia is recruiting 25,000 to 30,000 new soldiers a month, roughly equal to the number of dead and wounded. As soon as local governments see interest lagging, they jack up the financial incentives, experts say. This past month, the frontline Belgorod region broke all records with a signing bonus amounting to more than $30,000, well above the previous leader, Moscow, at about $20,000. The lowest bonuses are around $500. (NYT, 11.02.24)
  • Coffin money payments amount to almost $150,000 per family, enough to buy an apartment in all but the most expensive Russian cities. While an apartment is often the main goal, recipients say they buy all kinds of things, including new teeth, breast implants and vacations. (NYT, 11.02.24)
• Approximately 2,000 One Way Attack Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (OWA UAVs) were launched by Russia against Ukraine over the month of October 2024, exceeding September's numbers by approximately 700, and increasing significantly for the third month in a row. (UKMOD, 11.08.24)
• Moscow has been using decoy drones with no warheads to overwhelm defenses, and surveillance drones and strike drones to gather intelligence, Ukrainian officials said. Over the past two months, there was only one night when Russia did not launch swarms of drones packed with explosives at targets far from the front, including near-nightly attacks aimed at Kyiv. (NYT, 11.08.24)
• Russia’s military is facing unprecedented equipment losses, according to data from the open-source research project Oryx.  Since Oct. 1, Russia has lost 695 pieces of equipment, either destroyed, damaged, abandoned or captured by Ukrainian forces, according to data from Oryx. These losses include 253 infantry fighting vehicles, 103 tanks, 41 armored personnel carriers, four aircraft (two Su-25 and two Su-34 fighters) and one Mi-28 helicopter. By comparison, Ukrainian forces lost 276 pieces of equipment in the same period, including 47 armored personnel carriers, 28 infantry fighting vehicles, 21 tanks and one Su-24M aircraft. Russia’s monthly equipment losses have climbed since summer, rising from 434 pieces in August to 695 in October. (Meduza, 11.05.24)
• Ukraine intends to mobilize more than 160,000 people under its conscription plan, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksandr Lytvynenko told lawmakers Nov. 5. More than 1 million have already been drafted, he said. (Bloomberg, 11.02.24)
• Maj. Gen. of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Dmytro Marchenko, who led the defense of Mykolaiv at the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion, decided to leave the service due to health reasons. He announced this on Facebook on Nov. 8. Last week Marchneko said: “I won’t be revealing a military secret if I say that our front has crumbled.” (Korrespondent.net, 11.08.24)

Military aid to Ukraine:

• European Union leaders are trying to work out whether they can keep the Ukrainian war effort going if Donald Trump decides to shut off support from the U.S. (Bloomberg, 11.08.24)
  • While some European leaders at a 2-day European Council summit in Budapest argued Europe should bide its time until Trump’s inauguration in January to find out about his intentions toward Ukraine, others said leaders don’t have that luxury and the European Commission should be coming up with proposals on how the bloc will respond if U.S. aid is shut off. That’s a controversial idea all the same. “Some EU leaders say that in such a case, the EU should take on full financial responsibility for Ukraine,” Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said in a video posted on Facebook. “I see this as impossible, and Slovakia will not agree to it.” (Bloomberg, 11.08.24)
  • The EU has been the biggest provider of aid to Ukraine, allocating €118 billion ($127 billion) since the start of the conflict, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The U.S. has provided €85 billion in total, although the flow of money has trailed off this year, with just €17 billion allocated. The EU has supplied almost double that amount. (Bloomberg, 11.08.24)
• The Biden administration has lifted a de facto ban on American military contractors deploying to Ukraine to help the country’s military maintain and repair U.S.-provided weapons systems, particularly F-16 fighter jets and Patriot air defense systems, an official with direct knowledge of the plan told CNN. The new policy, approved earlier this month before the election, would allow the Pentagon to provide contracts to American companies for work inside Ukraine. (CNN, 11.08.24)
• The U.S. Defense Department on Nov. 1 announced additional security assistance for Ukraine worth an estimated $425 million. The Pentagon said in a statement that the aid is meant to meet Ukraine's most urgent security and defense needs. This includes air-defense interceptors, munitions for rocket systems and artillery, armored vehicles and anti-tank weapons, the statement said. It is the 69th tranche of equipment to be provided from the Defense Department since August 2021 under a program known as the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) that allows stockpiled U.S. military equipment to be transferred to Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 11.01.24)
• On Nov. 7, Zelenskyy called on European leaders to supply Kyiv with more weapons rather than pushing for negotiations with Moscow. Speaking at the European Political Community Summit in Budapest, Zelenskyy criticized some European leaders for urging “concessions” to Putin and advocated “peace through strength” as the best approach to confronting Russia. (Meduza, 11.07.24)
• Zelenskyy said the only way to achieve a swift end to Ukraine’s war against the Russian invasion would be to force his country into defeat. “We would like a fair ending to the war,” Zelenskyy said Nov. 7. “A quick ending would be a loss.” The Ukrainian leader was speaking to reporters at a summit in Budapest hosted by Viktor Orban, the European Union’s biggest critic of aid for Kyiv. (Bloomberg, 11.07.24)
• Zelenskyy has warned European leaders that capitulation to Russia after it invaded Ukraine would be "suicidal" for Europe, just hours after Kyiv and the Black Sea port of Odesa were rocked by an unusually intense wave of air strikes. (RFE/RL, 11.07.24)
• More than 90% of Ukrainians who feel Russia has exhausted its resources believe that with adequate help from the West, Ukraine will be able to inflict big defeats on the Russian Federation. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.04.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Middlemen who organize cross-border payments for a commission are involved in up to 80% of Russia’s cross-border payments, newspaper Vedomosti reported. (The Bell, 11.02.24)
• Russian exporters have begun to turn to barter deals in a bid to resolve payment delays prompted by western sanctions over Moscow’s war in Ukraine. “Although barter transactions were common at the intergovernmental level, they are now becoming increasingly popular among businesses,” said Irina Zasedatel, vice-president of the association of exporters and importers in Moscow. “Direct payments are difficult in the current situation, and barter is an excellent alternative.” Last month Russian agricultural trader Astarta Agrotrading struck a barter deal with two companies in Pakistan to exchange chickpeas for tangerines. Under the terms of the agreement, the company based in Saratov, some 900km south-east of Moscow, will send 15,000 tons of chickpeas and 10,000 tons of lentils in exchange for 15,000 tons of tangerines and 10,000 tons of potatoes. Another contract will exchange 20,000 tons of chickpeas, worth about $14mn, for an equal volume of rice. (FT, 11.03.24)
• Sanctioned Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov paid €4 million ($4.4 million) to settle a money laundering investigation by German prosecutors. The criminal probe will be dropped after Usmanov pays €2.5 million to the government and €1.5 million to charities, Frankfurt prosecutors said in a statement on Nov. 4. The alleged acts didn’t cause financial harm to anyone in Germany and occurred a long time ago, they said. (Bloomberg, 11.04.24)
• A Chinese-owned electronics plant in Russia's Leningrad region has ceased operations, highlighting the growing impact of Western sanctions on Moscow. According to a report by the Kommersant newspaper on Nov. 7, TPV Technology, a Hong Kong-based company known as the world's largest manufacturer of computer monitors, halted production at its Shushary facility its war against Ukraine and the shifting dynamics of foreign business in Russia. (RFE/RL, 11.07.24)
• Britain on Nov. 7 announced its largest package of Russia sanctions in one year and a half, slapping punitive measures on 56 people and entities linked to Moscow's war machine, including three mercenary groups with links to the Kremlin -- Africa Corps, Bears Brigade, and PMC Espanola -- have been placed under sanctions and an individual accused of involvement in a 2018 Novichok attack. (RFE/RL, 11.07.24)
• IKEA stores owner Ingka Group has sold its last asset in Russia, a warehouse near Moscow, to businessman Robert Uzilov, RBC reported, citing two sources in the commercial real estate market and a representative of the buyer. (Meduza, 11.08.24)
• Western-made components were found in the S-70 Okhotnik drone shot down over the Ukrainian city of Konstantinovka in early October, the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate announced. (Istories, 11.08.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• Donald Trump’s promise to end the war in Ukraine by Inauguration Day now puts him in a position of having to choose between competing proposals from advisers united by a common thread—a sharp break from President Joe Biden’s “as long as it takes” approach to arming Kyiv. (WSJ, 11.07.24)
  • Like in Trump’s first term, different factions are set to compete to influence the Republican’s foreign policy. More traditionally minded allies such as Mike Pompeo, the former secretary of state now in contention to lead the Pentagon, are likely to push for a settlement that doesn’t appear to give a major win to Moscow. Other advisers, particularly Richard Grenell, a top candidate to lead the State Department or serve as national-security adviser, could give priority to Trump’s desire to end the war as soon as possible, even if it means forcing Kyiv into significant concessions. The proposals all break from Biden’s approach of letting Kyiv dictate when peace talks should begin. Instead, they uniformly recommend freezing the war in place—cementing Russia’s seizure of roughly 20% of Ukraine—and forcing Ukraine to suspend its quest to join NATO for at least 20 years. In exchange, the U.S. would continue to pump Ukraine full of weapons to deter a future Russian attack. Under that plan, the front line would essentially lock in place and both sides would agree to an 800-mile demilitarized zone. Who would police that territory remains unclear, but one adviser said the peacekeeping force wouldn’t involve American troops, nor come from a U.S.-funded international body, such as the United Nations. “We can do training and other support, but the barrel of the gun is going to be European,” a member of Trump’s team said. “We are not sending American men and women to uphold peace in Ukraine. And we are not paying for it. Get the Poles, Germans, British and French to do it.” (WSJ, 11.07.24)
  • Trump told Fox News in July: “I know Zelenskyy very well, and I know [Russian President Vladimir] Putin very well, even better.” “I would tell Zelenskyy, no more. You got to make a deal,” he said, adding that he would turn to Putin and threaten to give Kyiv “a lot” more aid in order to broker an agreement. (FT, 11.06.24)
  • Kurt Volker, Trump’s envoy for the Russia-Ukraine conflict between 2017 and 2019, said he expects Trump to contact the Kremlin leader with the goal of a swift resolution to the war. “I don’t think Trump wants to see this war continue once he’s actually in office,” he said. (MT/AFP 11.07.24)
  • Trump’s and JD Vance’s vision for the war’s end is far from that of Zelenskyy, who has said his country could not accept a frozen conflict or trading territory for peace. Trump has complained about the scale of U.S. support to Ukraine without explicitly threatening to cut it off. But there are concerns that he will use the assistance as leverage in an effort to get Ukraine to make concessions to Russia to end the war. (Bloomberg, 11.07.24)
• Donald Trump's phone call with Zelenskyy on Nov. 6 included two surprises: Elon Musk was also on the line, and Zelenskyy was somewhat reassured by what he heard from the president-elect, two sources with knowledge of the call tell Axios. After Zelenskyy congratulated Trump, the president-elect said he will support Ukraine, but didn't go into details. Three sources briefed on the call all told Axios that Zelenskyy felt the call went well and that it did not increase his anxiety about Trump's victory. One source said it "didn't leave Zelenskyy with a feeling of despair." Musk also weighed in during the call to say he will continue supporting Ukraine through his Starlink satellites, the sources said. Musk did not respond to a request for comment. (Axios, 11.08.24)
  • Zelenskyy wrote on X that he recalls his “great meeting” with Trump in September, where the two “discussed in detail the Ukraine-U.S. strategic partnership, the Victory Plan and ways to put an end to Russian aggression against Ukraine.” “I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together. We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership. We rely on continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States.” Zelenskyy concluded his message by saying he’s “looking forward to personally congratulating President Trump” and discussing “ways to strengthen Ukraine's strategic partnership with the United States.” Trump said he had talked to Zelenskyy but declined to share details of their call. Throughout his campaign for the White House, Trump bashed Biden’s handling of Ukraine, warning that it made World War III more likely and that Kyiv fleeced the U.S. by obtaining weapons worth billions of dollars free of charge. (WSJ, 11.08.24, Bloomberg, 11.07.24, Meduza, 11.06.24)
• Putin congratulated Trump on his victory in the U.S. presidential election and said he’s ready to hold discussions with the new American leader. “It seems to me, it deserves attention what was said about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis,” Putin said in his first comments on Trump’s re-election. Trump said that Putin wasn’t among the “probably” 70 phone conversations he has held with world leaders since winning the election, but that he still is planning to speak with the Russian president, according to NBC News and Bloomberg. Putin also said he was impressed with how Trump, who decisively defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in the Nov. 5 election, handled himself in the moments after an assassination attempt in July, describing Trump as a brave man. (Bloomberg, 11.07.24, RFE/RL, 11.07.24)
• The share of Ukrainians who are still willing to bear the burden of war has fallen to 63%. This figure was consistently higher – over 70% – from the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine until February 2024, according to a poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. (Ukrainska Pravda, 11.04.24)
• Russia demanded that Ukraine drastically reduce its military and cede partially occupied territories, as well as that the West lift its sanctions, in the early stages of peace talks during Moscow’s 2022 invasion, the investigative outlet Systema reported Nov. 4, citing a draft treaty proposal it said it obtained. (MT/AFP 11.05.24)
• Konstantin Remchukov, a Moscow newspaper editor close to the Kremlin, said the first step would be pushing Ukrainian troops out of Russia’s Kursk region, where they hold a sliver of territory. After that, he said, Putin will be ready for talks, conditioned on Russia’s being able to keep the territory it has captured. Trump might send cabinet designees to make his position clear, even before the inauguration, Remchukov added. (NYT, 11.07.24)
• Ahead of the European Council summit, Hungary's right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban -- who has maintained friendly ties with Putin, is a close ally of Trump, and has obstructed the bloc's sanctions regime against Moscow -- told Hungarian state radio that the EU must rethink its position on helping Ukraine, calling the conflict a "lost war." "The Americans will quit this war, first of all they will not encourage the war," Orban said. "Europe cannot finance this war alone... Some still want to continue sending enormous amounts of money into this lost war but the number of those who remain silent... and those who cautiously argue that we should adjust to the new situation, is growing," he added. (RFE/RL, 11.08.24)
  • Orbán has predicted that Washington will soon abandon its support for the war effort against Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. “There is military defeat in Ukraine,” Orbán said Nov. 8. (FT, 11.08.24)
  • Trump should call Putin to open up a line of communications with Russia and ultimately push toward a cease-fire in Ukraine, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s top aide Balazs Orban said. (Bloomberg, 11.07.24)

• “If we talk about the possibility of peace today, it’s because the Ukrainians had extraordinary courage and because the West supported Ukraine,” Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told reporters as she arrived for a second day of talks in Budapest Nov. 8. “That said, we’ll see how the scenario evolves in the coming weeks.” (Bloomberg, 11.08.24)

  For the latest measurement of Russians’ attitudes toward potential peace talks with Ukraine see the end of this digest.

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Putin told the annual conference of the Valdai Club: “After all, the experts there [in the West] understood that NATO was needed. But how to preserve its value, its attractiveness? It is necessary to scare properly, it is necessary to tear Russia and Europe apart, especially Russia and Germany, France with conflicts. That is how they brought it to a coup d'etat in Ukraine and to military actions in the southeast, in Donbas. They simply forced us to respond, in this sense they achieved what they wanted. The same thing is happening in Asia, on the Korean Peninsula, it seems to me.” (Kremlin.ru, 11.07.24)
• Putin told the annual conference of the Valdai Club: “Russia's role, of course, is not limited to just protecting and preserving itself. It may sound a bit pompous, but Russia's very existence is a guarantee that the world will retain its multicoloredness, diversity, complexity, and this is the key to successful development.” (Kremlin.ru, 11.07.24)
• Russia—and China—had seemed to benefit from the Houthis’ attacks on shipping in the Red Sea because the militia spared their ships. But it turns out that Moscow has been more than a passive beneficiary. As the Wall Street Journal recently reported, Russia has been providing the Houthis with targeting data for their attacks. Now that Russia has crossed this red line of actively aiding attacks on Western shipping, other hostile states may start sharing military-grade data with proxies of their choice. (FP, 11.08.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Any analysis of China’s advantages has to begin with its navy—called the People’s Liberation Army Navy, or the PLAN. It is not just the world’s largest, but also has the newest vessels. Around 70% of Chinese warships were launched after 2010, compared with a quarter of America’s, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think-tank in Washington. When it comes to design and material quality, Chinese ships are in many cases comparable to America’s, says the US Office of Naval Intelligence, “and China is quickly closing the gap in any areas of deficiency.” (The Economist, 11.05.24)
• Western security officials said they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies. The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits. (WSJ, 11.05.24)
• Putin told the annual conference of the Valdai Club: "We believe it [China] pursues an absolutely balanced policy, and China is our ally." (Kremlin.ru, 11.07.24)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Putin told the annual conference of the Valdai Club: “I have previously stated that we have reached red lines. The West’s calls to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, a nation with the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, reveal the reckless adventurism of certain Western politicians. Such blind faith in their own impunity and exceptionalism could lead to a global catastrophe.” But at the same time there are nuclear weapons. This poses big threats to humanity. The same, absolutely the same in artificial intelligence. The question is how is it regulated and how do people use it? Question—how is it regulated?” (Kremlin.ru, 11.07.24)
• [When asked to share his vision for maintaining of strategic stability after New START expires] Putin told the annual conference of the Valdai Club: “As you know, we have never refused to continue the dialogue in the field of strategic stability. ... The United States set themselves the goal of inflicting a defeat on Russia, a strategic defeat. What is a strategic defeat? What does it mean to attain a strategic defeat of a specific country? If a country is not destroyed, then, I do not know, it is reduced to an insignificant role. Why do we need nuclear weapons then? And at the same time, they want to conduct a dialogue with us on strategic stability. How could this be ... It cannot be that here they are trying to inflict a strategic defeat on us, and they are telling their citizens: guys, everything is calm, everything is normal, business as usual, don't be afraid, don't think about anything. It doesn't happen like that: we have a strategic defeat, and you don't think about anything. Therefore, let's talk about it with open cards, calmly, business-like, without any double, triple, or five standards. ... Let's see how the new future [U.S.] administration will formulate its proposals, if there are any at all." (Kremlin.ru, 11.07.24, Kremlin.ru, 11.07.24)
• Speaking at the annual conference of Russia’s Valdai Club Russian political scientist Sergei Karaganov proposed what he described as a way to avoid World War III war: increasing the role of nuclear deterrence. According to the political scientist, humanity will have to go through a long period of conflicts and wars. Karaganov called preventing World War III a top priority. "For now, in the current very acute circumstances, I believe that this can only be done by increasing the role of nuclear deterrence in international relations for this period of 15–20 years," he said. (RBC, 11.05.24)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Pro-Russia hacking groups have conducted cyberattacks against South Korea after North Korea dispatched troops to Russia to support its war against Ukraine, Seoul's presidential office said on Nov. 8. (Reuters, 11.08.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• The EU should look into the prospect of increasing purchases of US LNG as a means to win over incoming President Donald Trump who has vowed to impose sweeping import tariffs, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said. “[LNG] is something where we can get into a discussion,” von der Leyen said, noting that US LNG could replace ongoing purchases of Russian LNG. (FT, 11.08.24)
• The Russian government’s revenue from the oil industry fell by 29% in October from a year earlier due to lower crude prices and higher state payouts to the nation’s fuel producers. 
• Oil-related taxes, a key source of financing for Russia’s war against Ukraine, shrank to 1.05 trillion rubles ($10.7 billion) last month compared with 1.48 trillion rubles a year ago, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data published on Nov. 5. (Bloomberg, 11.05.24)
• OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to extend voluntary oil output cuts through the end of the year, the group said on its website on November 3. It said the "eight OPEC+ countries Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023, have agreed to extend the… voluntary production adjustments of 2.2 million barrels per day for one month until the end of December 2024." (RFE/RL, 11.04.24)
• Sanctions on Arctic LNG are stricter than those targeting Russia’s oil exports, which do not stop non-Western buyers purchasing the stuff. They are also easier to enforce: the global fleet of LNG tankers is much smaller than the oil-carrying one, and it can dock at only a few specialized ports. That makes transgressions easier to spot, notes Anne-Sophie Corbeau of Columbia University. And punishing them comes at a smaller cost: from 2025 onwards, lots of new LNG is expected to come from outside Russia, notably America, which should keep global prices down. Sanctions on Arctic LNG are working largely because America wants them to work. How long that lasts depends on the geopolitical whims of its next president. (The Economist, 11.07.24)

Climate change:

•  See section on other post-Soviet republics below.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

Reactions to the results of the U.S. presidential election:

For Putin’s reaction to the outcome, see the section on Ukraine negotiations above. For more reactions to the outcome of the U.S. vote from other post-Soviet states’ political figures, experts and media, see this RM blog post.

• Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s press secretary:
  • Said on Nov. 6: "I still know nothing about Putin's intention to congratulate Trump," the Kremlin spokesman told the media. A few hours earlier, Peskov also said Putin had no plans for congratulating Trump. "I suggest remembering that we are talking about an election that took place in a country that is unfriendly to us and in a country that is involved in the conflict over Ukraine," Peskov said. (TASS, 11.06.24)
  • Dismissed on 11.06.24 the possibility of ending the conflict in Ukraine “overnight.” (Meduza, 11.06.24)
  • Said on Nov. 6: "Indeed, during the election campaign, we heard certain statements on Ukraine from Mr. [Donald] Trump. Indeed, unlike many other U.S. politicians, Mr. Trump declared his plans to establish peace, his unwillingness to continue the war until the last Ukrainian.” According to the Kremlin spokesman, this stance distinguishes Trump "from other representatives of the American political establishment." "But these things were pronounced during the election race, and we will see what happens after he take office. We will judge by his first official statements and concrete steps," Peskov noted. (TASS, 11.06.24)
  • On Nov. 6 recounted Putin’s remarks about his readiness for communication and dialogue. "This has been our consistent position, and it is well-known globally," he said. (Interfax, 11.06.24)
  • On Nov. 7 said he couldn’t rule out that Trump and Putin would talk before the U.S. presidential inauguration (Bloomberg, 11.07.24)
• Dmitry Medvedev, National Security Council Deputy Chairman, wrote: “Kamala is finished... Trump has one quality that’s useful for us: As a businessman to his core, he absolutely hates spending money on spongers and freeloaders—on stupid little allies, dumb charity projects and greedy international organizations, which includes Toxic Bandera Ukraine [sic]. The question is how much they’ll force Trump to give for the war.” In even more offensive language, Medvedev also suggested that Trump’s return to the White House is a severe blow to Zelenskyy. (Meduza, 11.06.24, Kommersant, 11.06.24, WP, 11.06.24)
• Valentina Matviyenko, Russia’s Federation Council speaker, said: "I think there should be no excessive expectations. I believe there will be no drastic change in the U.S. policy. At least, there are not many reasons now to think so… We are set to cooperate, we are not inclined to any kind of confrontation," Matviyenko said. "We are open to dialogue, we are open to the discussion of common global security, rather than security of particular states," she said. "In my opinion, this is a clear demonstration of the Americans' attitude to the policy pursued by the Democrats in recent years, both in the domestic and foreign policy. It is a protest against everything that happened, including, I believe, in Russia's regard," Matviyenko said. (Interfax, 11.06.24)
• The deputy speaker of Russia's upper house of parliament, Konstantin Kosachev, said on his Telegram channel: "The victory of the right in the so-called 'free world' will be a blow to the left-liberal forces that dominate it. It is not by chance that Europe was so openly 'rooting' for Harris, who would, in fact, preserve the rule of the Obama-Clinton 'clan.'" (WP, 11.07.24)
• The Russian Foreign Ministry said: "In working with the new administration once it checks in at the White House, Russia will firmly defend its national interests and remain focused on achieving all the goals it has set itself in the special military operation. Our terms are unchanged and well known in Washington.” Moscow "does not cherish illusions with regard to the elected American president, who is well known in Russia, and a new composition of the Congress, where the Republicans are tentatively prevailing," it said. "The ruling political elite in the U.S., regardless of its party affiliation, follows an anti-Russian line and the policy of containing Moscow. This line is not susceptible to fluctuations of a political barometer in the U.S., whether it concerns the 'America first' concept as it is interpreted by Donald Trump and his supporters or the 'rules-based world order,' on which the Democrats are fixated," the ministry said. (Interfax, 11.06.26) 
• “Until the inauguration, we will keep advancing [in Ukraine],” a Russian government official said. “It would be good to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by January, and then we will decide what to do with Kherson [the Kyiv-held capital of Ukraine's Kherson region, which Russia partially occupies].” (VP/MT, 11.06.24)
• Russian officials are especially pleased that, unlike his first term in office, Trump could face less opposition from Democrats, with Republicans winning control of the Senate and potentially the House of Representatives. (VP/MT, 11.06.24)
• "I don’t believe in major breakthroughs, and there is no great euphoria in my circle of contacts,” a senior executive at a major Russian state corporation said. (VP/MT, 11.06.24)
• "We have won," said Alexander Dugin, the Russian ideologue who has long pushed an imperialist agenda for Moscow and supported disinformation efforts against Kamala Harris's campaign. "The world will be never ever like before. Globalists have lost their final combat," he wrote on X. (WP, 11.08.24)
• A clear sign of the lack of Kremlin trust in President-elect Trump, Alexei Venediktov, the well-connected longtime editor of Echo of Moscow radio, said, was Putin's decision not to immediately congratulate him as other leaders had. "This is actually an insult," he said. "It's a signal." (WP, 11.078.24)
• The Moscow Exchange Index rose by 3.6% on news of Donald Trump's likely victory in the U.S. presidential election. Russian energy giants Gazprom and Novatek were among the best performers, both rising nearly 5% shortly after opening. Online marketplace Ozon rose most, while Aeroflot initially added 6%. AFK Sistema, Alrosa, Tatneft, Unipro, TKS Holding and MMK all gained ground. (Istories, 11.06.24, FT, 11.06.24, FT, 11.06.24)
  • Russia-exposed stocks rallied from Turkey to eastern Europe as Donald Trump’s election victory prompted investors to position for moves toward a resolution of the war in Ukraine despite massive remaining obstacles. (Bloomberg, 11.07.24)
  • On Nov. 6, JPMorgan’s Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa Securities (JEMA) had jumped 18.3%, its biggest daily rise in over two years. Until 2022, the London-listed investment fund went by a slightly snappier name: JPMorgan Russian Securities. JEMA remains a good way to play the prospect of Russia getting de-sanctioned. (FT, 11.07.24)
  • One portfolio manager, who asked not to be named, told FT Alphaville: “All the talk this morning is about how to trade Russia and whether sanctions will be thrown off… [traders at Western banks] are questioning suddenly whether the ruble is now tradeable. They pointed out that a few Western banks do still trade the ruble offshore via non-deliverable forwards, a kind of derivative that allows investors to bet on the price of the currency at any given time.” (FT 11.06.24)

For hot takes on the impact of Trump’s re-election on the post-Soviet neighborhood, see:

• "Trump Promised to End the War in Ukraine. Now He Must Decide How," Alexander Ward, WSJ, 11.06.24.
• "Ukrainians put on brave face after Donald Trump’s victory," Christopher Miller and Max Seddon, FT, 11.06.24. 
• "Trump and the Future of American Power," Q&A with Stephen Kotkin, FA, 11.08.24.
• "The Right Way for Trump to Play Peacemaker", David Ignatius, WP, 11.08.24.
• "Trump's Stance on Ukraine War Raises European Concerns," Andrew Kramer, NYT, 11.06.24.
• "Trump's Relationship with Putin and Its Implications for the Ukraine Conflict," Steven Erlanger, NYT, 11.07.24.
• "Why Volodymyr Zelensky May Welcome Donald Trump's Victory", The Economist, 11.07.24.
• "Putin's Reaction to U.S. Election Reflects Cautious Optimism," Robyn Dixon and Catherine Belton, WP, 11.07.24.
• “Trump's Vision for U.S. Global Leadership Raises Concerns Among Allies," David E. Sanger, NYT, 11.06.24.

Elections interference:

• In the final days before Nov. 5’s vote, Russia abandoned any pretense that it was not trying to interfere in the American presidential election. The Kremlin’s information warriors not only produced a late wave of fabricated videos that targeted the electoral process and the Democratic presidential ticket but also no longer bothered to hide their role in producing them. A fabricated interview claiming election fraud in Arizona was conducted by the director of a Kremlin think tank, Mira Terada, who returned to Russia in 2021 after serving a prison sentence in the United States for money laundering. Another video on Rumble, the video-sharing platform, targeted the Democratic vice-presidential nominee and featured John Mark Dougan, a former deputy sheriff from Florida who had previously denied working for the Kremlin’s propaganda apparatus. (NYT, 11.07.24)
• Two fake videos on social media attempting to influence the U.S. election were the work of “Russian influence actors,” multiple U.S. agencies said Nov. 8. “The [intelligence community] assesses that Russian influence actors manufactured a recent video that falsely depicted individuals claiming to be from Haiti and voting illegally in multiple counties in Georgia,” read a joint statement from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the FBI, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. (FP, 11.01.24)
• Moscow on Nov. 2 denied Washington's claims that Russia was behind a fake video showing a Haitian immigrant claiming to have voted multiple times. (MT/AFP, 11.02.24)
• In a statement on Nov. 5, the FBI confirmed that polling locations in several U.S. states have received bomb threats, “many of which appear to originate from Russian email domains.” Officials say none of the threats has proven credible. (Meduza, 11.05.24)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Western security officials said they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies. The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits. (WSJ, 11.05.24)
• European and U.S. intelligence officials believe Russia is behind a plan that would ultimately place incendiary devices on planes to North America through air cargo shipments, according to people familiar with the matter. Authorities are taking the incidents seriously, and intelligence agencies are expecting Moscow to try and stage similar acts of sabotage in the future, one of the people said. They asked not to be named discussing the intelligence matter.
• Poland’s National Prosecutor’s Office has said in a statement on its website that it’s investigating the alleged involvement of a foreign intelligence service in sabotage activities on the territory of Poland and other European Union members states and the UK but didn’t specify Russia as the perpetrator. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier Nov. 4 on Moscow’s alleged goal of ultimately targeting the U.S. (Bloomberg, 11.05.24)
• Poland has detained four people suspected of being involved in test runs for a Russian plot to detonate parcel bombs on U.S.-bound transatlantic flights. Warsaw launched an investigation after Germany said last month that it narrowly avoided a plane crash when a parcel destined for an aircraft’s hold burst into flames before the flight at a DHL logistics center in Leipzig. The UK’s counterterrorism police are also investigating the origins of another package that caught fire at a DHL depot in Birmingham in July. According to two European security officials briefed on intelligence assessments, the European incidents, which involved packages sent from Lithuania, were designed in part to test whether the same methods could be used to attack flights to the US. (FT, 11.05.24)
• European security officials have linked suspected Russian operatives to a plot to smuggle incendiary devices onto a cargo plane in Germany, in what investigators believe may have been a trial run for future attacks targeting North America-bound aircraft.
• An international probe that began after one of the devices caught fire prematurely in July determined that the plotters also sent packages without the flammable contents to U.S. and Canadian addresses, in an apparent test to see if the parcels could be successfully delivered, according to European security officials. (WP, 11.05.24)
• Russian media said on Nov. 2 that Russia removed a U.S. citizen "from territory controlled by the Ukrainian armed forces" who it alleged had been aiding Russian forces by transmitting coordinates of Ukrainian military facilities for two years, although it provided no evidence of such activities. A man who appeared on RIA Novosti the same day identifying himself as Daniel Martindale and displaying a U.S. passport said he was in Moscow of his own will and wanted to obtain Russian citizenship. (RFE/RL, 11.02.24)
• A Moscow court on Nov. 5 upheld a 12-and-a-half year prison sentence for a U.S.-Russian man, Robert Woodland, convicted earlier this year on drug charges. (MT/AFP, 11.05.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia has granted citizenship to 3,344 foreigners since the start of the year under a decree by President Vladimir Putin that allows passports to be issued to participants in the invasion of Ukraine and their family members. (RFE/RL, 11.04.24)
• The head of Russia’s republic of Komi, Vladimir Uyba, announced Nov. 5 that he was stepping down from office, making him the third regional executive to resign in two days after the governors of Rostov and Tambov regions. For Tambov, Putin selected Yevgeny Pervyshov, a former mayor of a major southern city who in 2022 signed up to fight in Ukraine. As for the Uyba, he has been appointed first deputy head of the Russian Defense Ministry’s main military medical directorate. (MT/AFP 11.05.24, MT/AFP, 11.05.24, WP, 11.05.24)
• A Moscow court has issued an arrest warrant in absentia for Novaya Gazeta Europe editor-in-chief Kirill Martynov on felony charges of leading the activities of an “undesirable organization” (in this case, his own newsroom and his work at the educational project Free University). The court ruled that Martynov should be jailed for two months, pending trial, once apprehended or extradited to Russian soil. (Meduza, 11.07.24)
• Russia’s Supreme Court upheld the four-year prison sentence for nationalist and former rebel commander Igor Girkin, his wife and Russian media reported Nov. 6. Girkin, a convicted war criminal in the West and better known by his alias Igor Strelkov, was convicted of “inciting extremism” in January. (MT/AFP 11.06.24)
• Russian law enforcement officers seized weapons and handed out military summons to Roma amid a fresh wave of police raids in the Chelyabinsk region, where a murder last month ignited long-simmering ethnic tensions and sparked local reprisals against the local Romani community. (MT/AFP, 11.08.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia launched 55 satellites into orbit on Nov. 5, including two privately built Iranian devices, in a demonstration of deepening cooperation between Moscow and Tehran. (MT/AFP 11.05.24)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• A Russian military court has jailed a deputy head of logistics for the National Guard on bribery charges. According to the Telegram channel Mash, Major General Mirza Mirzayev, 52, tried to extort a defense contractor supplying prefabricated building modules. He allegedly threatened to tear up the government’s 480-million-ruble ($4.9-million) contract with the company if it didn’t pay him a 140-million-ruble ($1.4-million) kickback. Meduza is not able to verify Mash’s report at this time. (Meduza, 11.04.24)
• Russian security forces registered 601 “terrorist attacks” in the first nine months of 2024, according to an Interior Ministry report highlighted by Verstka. This figure already exceeds Russia’s previous record, set in 2003, by seven percent—the year the ministry began tracking this data. At that time, authorities reported 561 terrorist attacks, after which the number steadily declined over five years and then stabilized for the next 13 years, remaining between eight and 50 cases annually. The sharp rise in reported terrorism reflects the Russian authorities’ broad definition of the term. They categorize actions that could be perceived as anti-war protests—including arson attacks on military recruitment offices or even unsuccessful attempts at such attacks—as terrorism. (Meduza, 11.05.24)
• An engineer at a Russian tank manufacturer has been sentenced to 16 years in prison for high treason, after being found guilty of giving military information to Ukraine, a court said on Nov. 5. Danil Mukhametov, 32, was working as an engineer at Uralvagonzavod in Nizhny Tagil in Russia's Urals when he was detained in 2023 along with his wife Viktoria by Russia's FSB security services, the regional court in Sverdlovsk said. (MT/AFP 11.05.24)
• A Russian court has sentenced a man to 13 years in prison on "treason" charges after he was reported to have donated around $54 to Ukraine's military.

• The Moscow City Court said Nov. 8 it had found Alexander Kraychik guilty of "high treason" saying he provided "financial assistance to a foreign state [to support] activities against the security of the Russian Federation." (MT/AFP 11.08.24)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Moscow summoned a Canadian diplomat Nov. 8 to rebut Western allegations that Russia's secret services had orchestrated a campaign to mail explosive packages to addresses in NATO countries, including Canada. (RFE/RL, 11.08.24)
• Venezuela and its most powerful ally Russia signed agreements Nov. 7 on intelligence-gathering and counter-espionage, as well as energy cooperation, during a visit by a senior Kremlin official to Caracas. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko told Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez that his country stood ready to support Venezuela's armed forces with "the most sophisticated weapons and military equipment," according to remarks translated by Venezuelan state TV. (MT/AFP, 11.08.24)
• Indonesia and Russia kicked off their first joint naval drills on Nov. 4, as the Southeast Asian archipelago's new leader seeks to boost ties with Moscow. The five-day drills will take place in two phases at a naval base in Surabaya and in the Java Sea. Russia has sent three corvette class warships, a medium tanker ship, a military helicopter, and a tug boat, the Indonesian navy said in a statement last week. (MT/AFP, 11.04.24)
• Germany’s ruling coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz imploded after months of infighting between his center-left Social Democrats, the climate-focused Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats. (Bloomberg, 11.08.24)
• Demand for business and tourist visas to the 29-nation Schengen Zone rose by 35% in Russia between January and October compared to the same period in 2023, according to the travel agency Continent Express. (MT/AFP 11.07.24)

Ukraine:

An adviser to the Ukrainian government said he feared that Trump “may push the whole world into the era of chaos”. “It might be a moment of truth for Europe, the UK to step up and be the adults in the room. But they may not be up to that task.” (FT, 11.06.24)

• Oksana Vedmid, a Ukrainian soldier in the combat zone, said: “It feels like a small loss of hope for better support in our difficult struggle, knowing his stance and sympathy toward our enemies,” she said by telephone, referring to Trump. “At the same time, I understand that the situation has become so tough recently that even the aid we’ve received hasn’t been enough to improve our position.” (NYT, 11.06.24) For more reactions to the outcome of the U.S. vote by post-Soviet states’ political figures, experts and media, see this RM blog post.

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Moldova's pro-Western President Maia Sandu has won a second term, a critical milestone on her country's road toward integration into the European Union despite widespread allegations of Russian interference and voter fraud. Preliminary results after nearly all ballots were counted show Sandu garnered 55.3 while her Russia-friendly opponent, Alexandr Stoianoglo, mustered 44.7—a lead of just over 178,000 votes. (RFE/RL, 11.04.24)
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused Moldovan authorities of blocking thousands of Moldovans living in Russia from voting in Sunday’s presidential election and questioned the legitimacy of the results. (MT/AFP 11.05.24)
• Georgia's opposition staged a third day of protests on Nov. 5 against the results of last month's parliamentary elections claimed by the ruling Georgian Dream party amid accusations of widespread vote-rigging and irregularities at polling stations. Hundreds of protesters gathered outside the Appeals Court in Tbilisi before beginning a march through the Georgian capital, where traffic came to a standstill in parts of the city. Along the route, the number of marchers continued to grow. (RFE/RL, 11.05.24)
• Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election was seen as a blow to global climate action and is set to cast a pall over the UN COP29 summit next week, but leaders of the historic climate agreement struck in Paris said they believed the momentum behind decarbonization would not be halted. The world’s most important climate talks were already facing waning attention from political and business leaders, with many dropping out of the event in petrostate Azerbaijan ahead of the U.S. election. EU President Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron are among those not expected to go to Baku, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer are still due to attend. (FT, 11.07.24)
• Nearly a year has passed since the last Armenia-Azerbaijan prisoner swap, which came just months after Azerbaijani forces captured Nagorno-Karabakh and drove more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the disputed region. According to human rights lawyers, at least 23 Armenian prisoners of war and civilian detainees remain in Azerbaijani custody. With the U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP29) set to take place in Baku from November 11–22, some experts speculate that increased international attention might spur Azerbaijan to let them go or even sign a peace deal with Yerevan. (Meduza, 11.08.24)
• Russia has warned Armenia and Azerbaijan against hastily finalizing a peace agreement without considering “realities on the ground”, as the countries seem to be rushing into finally ending their more than 30-year conflict, from which Moscow has benefited. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov cautioned on Nov. 5 that a premature peace deal, which Western allies are advocating, risks reigniting regional tensions rather than establishing stability. (BNE, 11.05.24)
• Azerbaijan's ruling Aliyev family and its elite network will greatly benefit from the country's hosting of the COP29 environmental conference this month, according to an investigation by the anti-corruption media site OCCRP. (BNE, 11.06.24)
• The leaders of three European Union member states—France, Germany, and Poland— on Nov. 7 urged Georgia to investigate allegations of widespread voting irregularities during last month's parliamentary elections and called on Tbilisi to reverse Russian-inspired legislation. (RFE/RL, 11.07.24)
• Kazakhstan has signed eight commercial agreements worth $2.5 billion with Chinese companies, significantly enhancing bilateral economic relations between the two countries. The agreements were signed on November 4 during Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov's visit to Shanghai. (RFE/RL, 11.05.24)
• Uzbekistan's State Security Service (DXX) announced on Nov. 7 that a court in the city of Qoqon sentenced 11 individuals to prison terms ranging from 6–12 years for terrorism-related offenses. They were convicted on charges including financing terrorism, plotting to change the constitutional system, and possessing materials threatening public safety. (RFE/RL, 11.07.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• “If Trump could engage President Xi Jinping in making peace in Ukraine, they both should share the Nobel Peace Prize,” says Graham Allison, a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School. (WP, 11.07.24)

V. Useful data

“The Conflict in Ukraine: Attention, Support, Attitude towards Peaceful Negotiations and to Contract Service in October 2024,” Levada Center, 11.06.24.

Footnotes

1. Until 2022, the London-listed investment fund went by a slightly snappier name: JPMorgan Russian Securities. JEMA remains a good way to play the prospect of Russia being de-sanctioned.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky.