5 Things to Know

1. “Astonishing” is the adjective Economist and Politico writers used to describe Ukraine’s operation to smuggle some 150 drones into Russia and launch them from trucks in a June 1 attack on Russian long-range bombers across Russia, including some located at a base 2,500 miles away from Ukraine. Western experts believe a record of 12–14 Russian long-range bombers were damaged or destroyed in the June 1 attacks. Russia then framed its June 6 launch of 407 drones and 44 missiles that killed at least four as a response to the June 1 strike on the Russian airbases and the destruction of two bridges in which at least 7 civilians died in the early hours of June 1.¹ It should be noted that the June 1 strikes on Russian long-range bombers, which form the air leg of Russia’s strategic nuclear triad, could theoretically satisfy the criteria for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons per the 2024 edition of its Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence, but Russian officials, such as Moscow’s envoy to London Andrey Kelin, ruled out a nuclear response. It should be noted that even if all of the estimated seven strategic Tu-95 bombers that were estimated to have been damaged or destroyed in the attack could not be repaired, that would still leave Russia with an estimated total of 45 such bombers and 15 more advanced Tu-160 bombers, meaning the air leg of the Russian strategic nuclear triad would still have 60 aircraft. Thus, while the tactics used in the June 1 attack contain daring innovations, the material losses this attack has caused are unlikely to have a decisive impact on either the Russian strategic nuclear triad (which mostly relies on ICBMs), or on Russia’s ability to launch cruise missiles (some of which can be launched from naval platforms) at Ukraine.*
2. Ukraine and Russia agreed to hold a new prisoner exchange and swapped memorandums on a possible ceasefire to end Vladimir Putin’s three-year war, but remained “far apart on terms for a lasting ceasefire” after a second round of peace talks in Istanbul on June 2, Financial Times reported.² Following the talks, Donald Trump spoke to Vladimir Putin, concluding that the Russian leader was not ready for an “immediate peace” and essentially telegraphing Putin’s intent to retaliate for the aforementioned June 1 strikes. Two days after the June 4 call, Trump—who, as a candidate in 2024, had vowed to resolve the conflict in 24 hours—returned to the subject when hosting the German chancellor, musing that it might be necessary to let Ukraine and Russia “fight for a little while” before brokering a peace.
3. In the past week, Russian forces gained 54 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about 2 1/2 Manhattan islands), similar to the previous week’s gain of 52 square miles, according to the June 4, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card . Meanwhile, Ukraine’s armed forces gained 1 square mile of control in Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions, for a total this week of 6 square miles. In the past month, Russia gained 194 square miles, according to the card. Ukraine’s OSINT DeepState project estimates that Russian forces are now capturing an average of 14 square kilometers per day, twice as much as in April, MT reported.
4. A record high of 80% of Russians believe their country needs to improve relations with the United States and other Western countries, according to Levada’s latest poll on Russians’ attitudes toward various countries. The share of Russians who had a negative attitude toward the U.S. has declined from 70% in September 2023 to 47% in May 2025, while the share of Russians who had a good attitude toward the U.S. increased from 18% to 37% in the same period of time.³ The May 2025 poll by Levada showed that respondents viewed the U.S. as the 4^th most hostile country to Russia while Belarus and China were viewed as the friendliest. Another recent poll by Levada shows that Russians blame Ukraine (36%), Europe (36%) and the U.S. (14%) for the failure to reach an agreement on ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. That recent poll shows that a record 64% of Russians favor negotiations to end the war.
5. Russian billionaires have collectively gained $22.5 billion since the start of the year, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index analyzed by The Moscow Times. The ranking of the world’s top 500 richest people includes 22 Russians whose combined wealth stood at $317.7 billion as of June 2, according to MT. Metals tycoon Vladimir Potanin remained Russia’s richest person, with his net worth rising by $3.82 billion since January to $31.7 billion, MT reported, citing the index.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• “There is much more bombardment there now, and the Russians are pushing hard,” Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency says, explaining that a rotating IAEA team has been present at the Zaporizhzhia NPP since 2022, in a bid to prevent another Chernobyl-style disaster. “It’s dangerous. But we have to be there,” he adds, revealing that he has made five trips himself — under direct gunfire. He is heading to both Kyiv and Moscow to discuss Zaporizhzhia. (Financial Times, 06.06.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Moscow’s top security official, Sergei Shoigu, arrived in Pyongyang on June 4, where he will meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for talks, Russian media reported. Shoigu and his North Korean hosts discussed the implementation of the bilateral treaty and the North Korean military’s participation in the Russian-Ukrainian war. (MT/AFP, 06.04.25, AA.com.tr, 06.05.25)
• North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reiterated his pledge to unconditionally support Russian President Vladimir Putin. (Bloomberg, 06.05.25)
• In return for North Korea’s military assistance, Russia has been supplying North Korea not only with fuel and food, but also with materials and technologies to modernize its military, according to South Korean officials and analysts. (New York Times, 05.31.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• U.S. President Donald Trump said on social media on June 4 that he had spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin for an hour and 15 minutes about Ukraine's recent strikes on Russian aircraft and about nuclear talks with Iran. He said he told Putin that time was running out to reach a deal and that Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. Trump said he believed Putin agreed with him. "President Putin suggested that he will participate in the discussions with Iran and that he could, perhaps, be helpful in getting this brought to a rapid conclusion," Trump said. (NPR, 06.04.25)
• Putin is ready to “help resolve” the standoff between Iran and the United States over Tehran's nuclear program, the Kremlin said June 5. “We have a close partnership with Tehran. And President Putin said that he was ready to use this partnership to help resolve the Iranian nuclear issue,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. (MT/AFP, 06.05.25)
• Putin will visit Tehran soon as Moscow commits to $8 billion in investment in Iranian gas projects, Iran's ambassador to Russia said. Kazem Jalali told Iranian and Russian experts during a June 4 meeting that Russia had allocated the highest rate of foreign investment in Iran for 2024, focusing on energy sector projects, particularly oil and gas, Al-Alam reported on June 5. On June 5, Iranian state media reported that a trip by Putin to Tehran is in the works. (Washington Post, 06.06.25, BNE, 06.05.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• By the end of 2024, at least 445 children with Russian citizenship were injured due to the war with Ukraine. This follows from Russian budget expenditure data. (Istories, 06.06.25)
• Ukraine and Russia agreed to another large-scale prisoner swap at talks on June 2. Ukraine's delegation leader, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, said the sides agreed to "exchange all-for-all seriously wounded and seriously sick prisoners of war. The second category is young soldiers who are from 18 to 25 years old—all-for-all." Umerov's Russian counterpart, Vladimir Medinsky, said the exchange would involve "at least 1,000" on each side, a figure that exceeds the 1,000-for-1,000 POW exchange carried out after the first round of talks last month. (RFE/RL, 06.02.25)
• On June 6, Russia and Ukraine started exchanging the remains of fallen soldiers under an agreement reached during peace talks in Turkey earlier this week. Vladimir Rogov, a pro-Kremlin official in Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia, said June 6 that Russia received the bodies of 42 soldiers in exchange for the remains of 503 Ukrainian troops. Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War had not commented on the exchange as of June 6 afternoon. (MT/AFP, 06.06.25)
• Ukraine ordered the evacuation of 11 more villages in its Sumy region bordering Russia on May 31 amid fears Moscow was gearing up for a fresh ground assault. (MT/AFP, 05.31.25)

• The number of Ukrainian migrants abroad has increased. Since the beginning of 2025, about 100,000 Ukrainians have left. This is stated in the macroeconomic and monetary review of the National Bank (June 2025). According to the U.N., the number of migrants outside Ukraine continued to grow and exceeded 6.9 million people as of April 17, 2025. According to IOM, as of March 2025, 3.8 million IDPs live in Ukraine (their number has increased by 188,000 since the beginning of 2025) and 4.1 million people have returned to their usual place of residence. (UNN, 06.06.25)

• The European Union proposed a one-year extension of temporary protection to millions of Ukrainians who fled to the bloc following Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country. More than 4.3 million refugees have benefited from the measure, according to the EU, receiving residence permits and access to work, education and health care across the 27-nation bloc. (Bloomberg, 06.04.25)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the restoration of hundreds of infrastructure facilities in Ukraine. Ukraine received 7,000 units of energy equipment from its allies to get through the winter. (Korrespondent.net, 06.06.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past week, Russian forces gained 54 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about 2 1/2 Manhattan islands), similar to the previous week’s gain of 52 square miles., according to the June 4, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card . Meanwhile, Ukraine’s armed forces gained 1 square mile of control in Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions, for a total this week of 6 square miles. (RM, 06.06.25)
  • In the preceding 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 541 square kilometers (208 square miles), according to a June 3, 2025, estimate by The Economist. (RM, 06.02.25)
  • According to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map, as of June 3, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total 113,192 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (43,704 square miles), which constituted 18.8% of Ukrainian territory. (RM, 06.02.25)
• Before the month ends, Russia will probably suffer its millionth casualty since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, based on current trends of about 1,000-1,200 soldiers killed or injured every day. Given the intensity of Russian operations for much of the past year, it would not be hard to reach a figure of about 250,000 killed by now. To put Russia’s losses into context, they are to date on par with the entirety of Britain’s losses in the second world war of 264,000 killed. (The Economist, 06.02.25)
• Ukrainian Ministry of Defense news agency ArmyInform reported June 5 that an unnamed NATO official stated that Russian forces are sustaining an average casualty rate of 1,140 personnel per day, of whom nearly 975 are killed in action (KIA)—a much higher number of killed than the standard one-to-three KIA-to-wounded-in-action ratio. (ISW, 06.05.25)
• By the end of May 2025 Russia likely incurred approximately 980,000 casualties (killed and wounded) since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to Ukrainian General Staff data. (UK MOD X Account, 06.04.25)
• The Kremlin's summer offensive appears to be underway. Military analysts say it is clear that Russian forces this month began their latest concerted attempt to achieve a breakthrough, even as Moscow's representatives have engaged in the first direct peace talks with Ukraine since 2022. In particular, Russian forces are pushing into the remaining Ukrainian-controlled territory in the Donbas area in the east, in the fourth year of a conflict that has become a war of attrition. They used the winter lull to build up equipment reserves, improve battlefield communications and tweak the tactics and technical abilities of attack drones, said the military analysts. (New York Times, 05.31.25)
  • The Russian military averaged nearly 184 assaults per day in May, a 19% increase over April, Deep State reported. The number of days when Russian troops conducted over 190 assaults surged from just two in April to 13 in May. The most intense fighting was observed on May 4, when Russian forces launched 269 assault operations in a single day, Deep State said. Deep State estimates that Russian forces are now capturing an average of 14 square kilometers per day, twice as much as in April. (MT/AFP, 06.02.25)
• CSIS estimated in a June 2025 study that there were as many as 250,000 Russian fatalities in Ukraine between February 2022 and May 2025, with another 700,000 wounded, with the casualties totaling 950,000. ''No Soviet or Russian war since World War II has even come close to Ukraine in terms of fatality rate,'' the study said. In comparison, the study estimated that somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed between February 2022 and May 2025 and another 300,000-340,000 wounded, with the casualties totaling 400,000. (RM, 06.04.25)
  • CSIS predicted in June 2025 that Russia will likely hit the 1 million casualty mark in the summer of 2025 (killed and wounded). (RM, 06.04.25)
• According to a June 2025 study by CSIS, Russia has lost roughly 1,149 armored fighting vehicles, 3,098 infantry fighting vehicles, 300 self-propelled artillery, and 1,865 tanks since January 2024. Russian equipment losses have been significantly higher than Ukrainian losses, varying between a ratio of 5:1 and 2:1 in Ukraine’s favor, CSIS claims. (RM, 06.04.25)
• Ukrainian outlet New Voice (NV) reported June 3, citing Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), that Russian forces had stockpiled over 13,000 ballistic, cruise,and other missiles as of mid-May 2025, including: almost 600 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, over 100 Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles, almost 300 Kh-101 cruise missiles, over 400 Kalibr cruise missiles, up to 300 Kh-22/32 cruise missiles, about 700 Oniks cruise missiles and Zirkon anti-ship missiles, about 60 North Korean-produced KN-23 ballistic missiles, and about 11,000 S-300/400 air defense missiles. (ISW, 06.03.25) This is a remarkable contrast with GUR’s 2022 claims that Russia was going to run out of missiles.
• By early 2025, drones were accounting for 60% to 70% of the damage and destruction caused to Russian equipment in the war, according to U.K.-based think tank the Royal United Services Institute. (Bloomberg, 06.03.25)

Friday, May 30, 2025

• On May 30, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces captured Yelizavetivka. (RM, 05.23.25)
• Ukraine attacked a Russian military object in the far-eastern city of Vladivostok. Russia’s Tass newswire reported early May 30 that two explosions occurred in the area of Desantnaya Bay, citing the press service of the government of Primorsky Krai where Vladivostok is located. (Bloomberg, 05.31.25)

Saturday, May 31, 2025

• On May 31, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces captured Volodymyrivka. (RM, 05.23.25)

Sunday, June 1, 2025

• On June 1, Ukraine’s forces launched a massive drone attack on several airfields deep inside Russia that were home to strategic bombers used in air raids. The attacks targeted four airfields deep inside Russia, with the farthest one, the Belaya base in the Irkutsk region, some 4,500 kilometers (2,800 miles) from Ukraine’s border with Russia. The other targets included the Olenya base near Murmansk in the Arctic Circle, more than 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) from Ukraine; the Diaghilev airbase in Ryazan Oblast, some 520 kilometers (320 miles) from Ukraine; and the Ivanovo air base, which is a base for Russian military transport aircraft, some 800 kilometers (500 miles) from the border. Aircraft were “burning” at the Belaya airfield, at the Olenya air base, the Dyagilev air base and Ivanovo airfield. (Financial Times, 06.01.24, CNN, 06.02.25)
  • Ukraine’s security service, known as the SBU and responsible for the operation, claimed that 41 Russian aircraft were destroyed or damaged in the attacks, putting Russia’s damages at some $7 billion. Zelenskyy said 117 drones were used in the attack while commentators close to the Ukrainian security services suggest that as many as 150 drones and 300 bombs had been smuggled into Russia for the operations. Ukrainian officials said the 'first person view' (FPV) drones armed with explosives were smuggled into Russia and concealed inside trucks and beneath the roofs of houses, which were remotely opened, allowing the drones to fly up and attack their targets. The drone attack, codenamed Spiderweb, was planned by SBU more than a year in advance. (Financial Times, 06.01.24, RFE/RL, 06.01.25, Bloomberg, 06.01.25, New York Times, 06.02.25., The Economist, 06.01.25, Washington Post, 06.01.25, Financial Times,  06.01.25, WSJ, 06.04.25)
  • Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lt. Andriy Kovalenko  reported June 2 that Ukrainian forces destroyed at least 13 Russian fixed-wing aircraft and damaged over 40 aircraft in total during the June 1 drone strikes on Russian long-range aviation. (ISW, 06.02.25)
  • A senior Western official stated that Ukrainian special services likely destroyed or damaged at least seven Tu-95 bombers and four Tu-22 bombers during the June 1 strike. (ISW/Bloomberg, 06.03.25)
  • Of the four air bases that the SBU said it targeted, satellite imagery indicates that three sustained damage, and only two show visible signs of damaged aircraft—the Belaya[4] and Olenya air bases. Imagery from June 2 shows that a third air base, Dyagilevo, sustained only a patch of burned grass, according Sam Lair, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. (WSJ, 06.05.25)
  • On June 1 Russia’s Defense Ministry said that Ukrainian drones had attacked airfields in five regions: Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur. Several aircraft caught fire in the Murmansk and Irkutsk regions, but the other attacks were repelled, the ministry said in a statement, adding that there were no casualties. The agency  said that the attack was repelled at bases in three regions and that in two others, "several units of aircraft caught fire. “Satellite imagery of two air bases where Russia claimed attacks were thwarted, in the Ivanovo and Ryazan regions in the western part of the country, shows no damaged aircraft. (Washington Post, 06.03.25, New York Times, 06.01.25, Washington Post, 06.01.25)
  • Analysts using satellite imagery confirmed that 13 planes—eight Tu-95s, four Tu-22Ms—have been destroyed or damaged. (Al-Jazeera, 06.02.25)
  • A person close to the Kremlin put the tally at closer to 10. (Bloomberg, 06.02.25)
  • Open-source intelligence analysts counted at least 14 damaged aircraft using satellite images and video posted online. (WSJ, 06.02.25)
  • At least 12 aircraft were damaged in Ukraine's attack June 1, according to a Washington Post review of verified video and satellite imagery. The damaged planes included at least seven Tu-95 bombers, long-range aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons, experts said. Ukrainian officials claimed the operation, code-named "Spiderweb," destroyed 12 Russian aircraft and hit 41 in total, including A-50, Tu-95, Tu-22, M3 and Tu-160 models. (Washington Post, 06.05.25)[5]
  • Open-source analysts on X assessed that available imagery published on June 2 indicates that Ukrainian special services likely destroyed or damaged four Tu-95 bombers and three Tu-22M3 bombers at Belaya Air Base in Irkutsk Oblast and one A-50 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft at Ivanovo Air Base in Ivanovo Oblast.[6] Open-source analysts on X claimed that available video footage published on June 1 and 2 indicates that Ukrainian special services destroyed or damaged five Tu-95 bombers at Olenya Air Base in Murmansk Oblast. (ISW, 06.02.25)
  • A former Ukrainian officer who runs analytical group Frontelligence Insight said that while the damage would probably not directly influence Russia’s position on the battlefield, it was still significant. “It does reduce Russia’s strategic capabilities, [which] mean the ability to project power globally, the ability to deliver nuclear strikes and overall military posture in Eurasia,” he said. “When [the Russian] general staff plans wars, they don’t look just at one theatre of war or specific part of the front line. They assess the military capabilities and project how to execute the political will of leadership.” (Financial Times,  06.01.25)
• On June 1, Russian officials said that seven people were killed and at least 76 others injured after two bridges collapsed in neighboring regions, derailing a freight train and a passenger train. The incidents occurred within hours of each other overnight in Russia's Kursk and Bryansk regions, both of which border Ukraine. It was not immediately clear whether they were linked. Russia's top investigative body said it was treating both bridge collapses as criminal acts. In an earlier statement, later amended without explanation, it said explosions had caused the bridges to collapse. (Washington Post, 06.01.25)
  • The number of people injured in the bombing of a highway bridge over a passenger train in the western Bryansk region has risen to 104, authorities said June 2, while the death toll remained at seven. (MT/AFP, 06.02.25)
• Ukraine came under one of the longest barrages from Russian missiles and drones early June 1. Russia launched 472 Shahed-type drones as well as 7 ballistic and cruise missiles over Ukraine, with 385 targets shot down, the Ukrainian Air Defense said in a post on Telegram. A strike on a military training center killed 12 people and wounded 60 others, Ukraine’s Land Forces said in a Facebook post, without providing details of the center’s location. Hours after the strike, Ukraine Ground Forces Commander Mykhaylo Drapatyi announced his decision to resign due to the casualties. (Bloomberg, 06.01.25, Washington Post, 06.01.25, Financial Times, 06.01.24)
• On June 1, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces captured Kostyantynivka (Sumy region). (RM, 06.01.25)

Tuesday, June 3, 2025

• On June 3, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Andriivka and Vodolahy. (RM, 06.03.25)
• Russian forces carried out overnight strikes on several regions of Ukraine, including Odesa and Chernihiv, leaving several people injured. (Meduza, 06.03.25)
• Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) said June 3 that it used underwater explosives to attack the Crimean Bridge. According to the SBU, the underwater supports of the supports received "severe damage" at the bottom level, and the bridge is now "in fact in a state of emergency."  The Kremlin confirmed the attacks, but claimed the bridge remains operational. (MT/AFP, 06.03.25, Bloomberg, 06.03.25, DW, 06.04.25, Istories, 06.03.25)
• Zelenskyy accused Russia of "deliberately" targeting civilian infrastructure after a wave of air strikes early on June 3 killed four people and injured at least 20 others in the Sumy region that is next to the Russian border. Overnight Russian attacks killed one person in Ukraine's Kharkiv region and injured several more in the northern city of Chernihiv, regional officials said on June 3. (MT/AFP, 06.03.25, RFE/RL, 06.03.25)
• Russian opposition outlets Sota and Astra and Russian milbloggers circulated footage indicating that Ukraine conducted a naval drone strike against the bridge around 15:00 on June 3, though it is unclear if the strike caused damage to the structure. (ISW, 06.03.25)
• Zelenskyy and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced a series of Ukrainian military command changes on June 3. Zelenskyy appointed former Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Maj. Gen. Mykhailo Drapatyi as the Commander of Ukraine’s Joint Forces Command. Zelenskyy appointed Drapatyi as the Commander of Ukrainian Ground Forces on Nov. 29, 2024, and Drapatyi recently submitted his resignation. Zelenskyy and Umerov also announced on June 3 that they appointed Brig. Gen. Oleh Apostol as Commander of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces, Maj. Gen. Ilhor Skybiuk as Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Maj. Robert Brovdi as Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, and Col. Vadym Sukharevskyi as Deputy Commander of Operational Command "East.” (ISW, 06.03.25)
• Trump did not receive advance notice about Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian military airfields on June 1, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters June 3. (Meduza, 06.03.25)

Wednesday, June 4, 2025

• Ukraine's SBU published new footage on June 4 from Operation Spiderweb showing Ukrainian drones approaching the wings, sides, tops, and underbellies of Russian fixed-wing aircraft at various airfields. The SBU reported that the footage shows first-person view (FPV) drones striking A-50 airborne early warning and control (AWACS) aircraft, Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers, Tu-22 supersonic bombers, An-12 transport aircraft, and Il-78 aerial refueling tankers at Belaya Air Base in Irkutsk Oblast; Olenya Air Base in Murmansk Oblast; Dyagilevo Air Base in Ryazan Oblast; and Ivanovo Air Base in Ivanovo Oblast. (ISW, 06.04.25)
• Russian state media named a Ukrainian DJ who had been living in Russia and recently relocated to the city last year as one of the people responsible for logistics behind the drone attack, purchasing the trucks that would carry the drones and coordinating the drivers. (WSJ, 06.04.25)
• Ukraine’s Air Force reported that Russia launched 95 drones and decoys overnight, 61 of which were shot down, disabled by electronic warfare or disappeared from radars. (MT/AFP, 06.04.25)
• NATO expects that Putin will seek retaliation against Ukraine for its audacious “Spider’s Web” drone operation, which dealt a significant blow to Russia’s strategic air bases, a senior NATO official told The Moscow Times. (MT/AFP, 06.04.25)

Thursday, June 5, 2025

• On June 5, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Stara Mykolayivka and Hnativka. (RM, 06.05.25)
• Trump thought Ukraine's surprise drone attack over the weekend was "strong" and "badass," sources who discussed it with him tell Axios, but he's also concerned it will make his ceasefire mission even harder. “Pretty strong," Trump told one confidant, who relayed his remarks to Axios. "He thought it was badass," a second source said of Trump's reaction. One Trump adviser said: "From an international perspective, you've got a chihuahua inflicting some real damage on a much bigger dog." (Axios, 06.05.25)
  • According to The Atlantic’s sources, however, since the attacks, Trump has privately expressed frustration that the strikes could escalate the conflict. Three administration officials and an outside adviser to the White House told the Atlantic that the drone strike has reignited the president’s long-held displeasure with Zelenskyy, and prompted a new debate in the White House about whether the United States should abandon Ukraine. (Atlantic, 06.05.25)
• Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, said in a June 3 interview with Fox News that Ukraine had carried out a “very bold attack” on Russian military airfields — but cautioned that the move significantly increases the risk of escalation. “The risk levels are going way up,” he said. (Meduza, 06.04.25)
• A Russian air strike killed at least five people, including members of three generations from the same family, in the northern Ukrainian city of Pryluky, prompting Zelenskyy to renew calls for the international community to exert "all available means" of pressure on Moscow to bring about a ceasefire. (RFE/RL, 06.05.25)

Friday, June 6, 2025

• Over the course of some five hours after midnight, Russia launched 407 drones and decoys, nearly 40 cruise missiles and six ballistic missiles from land, air and sea at targets across Ukraine overnight in the most significant attack since a Ukrainian raid destroyed more than a dozen Russian strategic bombers thousands of kilometers from the frontline. Kyiv appeared to be one of the main targets. Ukrainian officials said at least four people were killed and 49 were wounded in the strikes that followed Putin’s vow to retaliate for a Ukrainian drone attack on Russian air bases. (Financial Times, 06.06.25, New York Times, 06.05.25, Bloomberg, 06.06.25. RFE/RL, 06.06.25)
  • Russian forces struck Kharkiv, a city in Ukraine, for an hour on the evening of June 6, using aerial bombs and missiles, according to Oleh Syniehubov, head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration. (RBC.ua, 06.06.25)
    • Prominent writers in Russia’s Z-blogosphere — the constellation of pro-invasion Telegram accounts with millions of readers — are ridiculing the Defense Ministry’s claim that the June 6 nighttime strikes across Ukraine constitute retaliation for Kyiv’s daring drone attacks on June 1 that damaged several strategic aircraft. (Meduza, 06.06.25)
    • Overall, Russia has launched more than 1,000 drones per week at military and civilian targets in Ukraine in recent months, the Ukrainian authorities have said. (New York Times, 06.05.25)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry said that its air defense forces intercepted and destroyed 174 Ukrainian drones overnight on June 6. According to the ministry, the attacks were repelled in multiple regions, including Bryansk, Rostov, Saratov, Voronezh, Kaluga, Kursk, Oryol, Ryazan, Tula, Belgorod, Tambov, and the Moscow region, as well as in annexed Crimea. In the city of Engels in the Saratov region, drones struck an apartment complex, and residents were evacuated. (Meduza, 06.06.25)
  • On June 6, Ukrainian drones struck two Russian airbases, a fuel depot and a missile and aviation plant overnight, Ukraine’s military said, as both sides ramp up long-range attacks. “A successful strike was carried out on the Engels-2 long-range aviation base in the Saratov region, a place where enemy aircraft are concentrated,” Ukraine’s General Staff said in a statement. (MT/AFP, 06.06.25)
• The share of Ukrainians who say they are ready to endure the burden of war has grown from 54% in March to 60% in May-June, according to the KIIS survey. (Korrespondent.net, 06.06.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• The Pentagon quietly notified Congress last week that special fuzes for rockets that Ukraine uses to shoot down Russian drones are now being allocated to U.S. Air Force units in the Middle East. In an internal memo in May, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth authorized the Joint Rapid Acquisition Cell, a Pentagon office that ensures commanders' weapons needs are met, to provide the fuzes to the U.S. Air Force, even though they were initially bought for Ukraine. (Wall Street Journal, 06.04.25)
• Hegseth skipped a meeting on June 4 at NATO headquarters with European defense ministers on coordinating military aid to Ukraine. Hegseth has warned that European allies must provide the overwhelming share of future military assistance to Kyiv while casting the western Pacific as the Pentagon's "priority theater." (Wall Street Journal, 06.04.25)
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced June 5 the launch of a new initiative for joint production of Ukrainian weapons in Ramstein states in order to supply weapons to the Ukrainian military and to increase Ramstein states' industrial capacity. Umerov said that during the meeting in the Ramstein format, Ukraine discussed with its partners the joint construction of facilities for weapon production. Umerov explained that Ukraine’s partners asked him whether Ukraine could build enterprises in their countries to supply them with certain weapons. (RBC.ua, 06.05.25, ISW, 06.05.25)
• Ukraine's allies and partners continued to provide military aid to Ukraine during the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein format) on June 4 and 5. Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans stated on June 4 that the Netherlands will allocate a package worth 400 million euros (roughly $457 million) to strengthen Ukraine's military security. (ISW, 06.05.25)
• The British Defense Ministry announced an increase in its goal of drones supplied to Ukraine: “We are announcing today a major new package of support including a tenfold increase in the number of drones to be supplied to Ukraine—with a target to deliver 100,000 this year.” (UK MOD X Account, 06.04.25)
• Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian president’s office, has arrived in the United States as part of a Ukrainian delegation. The delegation is led by Ukraine’s First Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, Yermak said. It also includes representatives from the Defense Ministry and the president’s office. (Meduza, 06.03.25)
• European nations are increasingly optimistic that they can support Ukraine financially and militarily against Russia even if Trump decides to wash his hands of the conflict, as he often threatens, and instead focuses on normalizing relations with Moscow. But even with their best efforts, the Europeans cannot replace all of what the United States provides Ukraine — most important, real-time intelligence about Russian forces, incoming missiles and how and where to target the enemy. What is hard to obtain are large numbers of air defense missiles, like the American Patriot (New York Times, 06.04.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Friday, May 30, 2025

• A bipartisan pair of senators traveled to Ukraine to meet with Zelenskyy. Sens. Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, and Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut, surveyed damaged neighborhoods. Graham said he plans to introduce legislation next week that would impose steep tariffs on countries that buy Russian energy and uranium. Graham said he aims to have new sanctions imposed on Russia before the Group of Seven summit in late June. (Bloomberg, 06.01.25, New York Times, 05.31.25, Wall Street Journal, 06.-03.25)

Saturday, May 31, 2025

• The European Union should revisit the question of how hundreds of billions of euros in frozen Russian assets can be used to finance Ukraine, a top German official said. “We should look at the issue of Russian state funds much more closely than we have been doing,” German Chancellery head Thorsten Frei said. (Bloomberg, 05.31.25)

Tuesday, June 3, 2025

• The Russian branch and assets of the French company Danone after its departure from Russia in 2022 were sold almost for free to people from the inner circle of the head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov — the deal was actually paid for from the company's own funds, according to an investigation by Sistema. (Istories, 06.03.25)
• Russia added Brigham Young University and Germany’s Körber Foundation to its list of “undesirable” organizations, exposing anyone affiliated with them to potential criminal charges. (MT/AFP, 06.03.25)
• The British government warned it may sue sanctioned Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich to unlock proceeds from the 2022 sale of Chelsea Football Club so that they can be used for humanitarian aid to Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 06.03.25)
• On June 3, a Moscow court designated Malik Khatazhayev, head of Lesta Games, as a participant in an “extremist organization.” The ruling strips Lesta of all its assets, which the state will confiscate and likely hand over to new owners. Prosecutors base their charges against Lesta Games on a campaign to raise money for Ukraine, even though the fundraising was conducted by Wargaming, a different company that had divested from Russia. (Meduza, 06.06.25)

Wednesday, June 4, 2025

• Russia’s flagship airline, Aeroflot, has created a new company that will build a jet engine repair facility in 2028, its CEO said, as Western sanctions have caused concerns about a growing number of malfunctions in the three years since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 06.04.25)

Thursday, June 5, 2025

• The European Union scored an important legal victory over Russia with its sanctions policy on June 5 as the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in Luxembourg issued an opinion stating that visa bans and asset freezes of five prominent Russian businessmen deemed closed to the Kremlin are not only lawful but also Brussels doesn't need to prove their ties to Putin's regime. (RFE/RL, 06.05.25)
• Slovak lawmakers approved a non-binding resolution rejecting new Russian sanctions, piling pressure on Prime Minister Robert Fico to break with European Union leaders seeking to punish Moscow. The motion won 51 of 76 lawmakers present in Slovakia’s 150-seat National Council on June 5. (Bloomberg, 06.05.25)
• The FSB accused the Oxford Russia Fund of "subversive work" in Russia and issued warnings to 15 teachers banning cooperation with "undesirable" organizations. The FSB Public Relations Center reported on the exposure of the "intelligence and subversive" activities of the British Oxford Russia Fund, recognized in Russia as an "undesirable" organization. (Media Zone, 06.05.25)
• A U.S.-sanctioned Russian telecom equipment developer installed 4G mobile network systems in Afghanistan last year to provide mobile services for up to 10 million people, the Vedomosti business newspaper reported June 5. The St. Petersburg company Protey’s installation of a 4G core network — the central system needed for mobile phones to work — in Afghanistan marks the first time the company has exported its technology abroad, according to Vedomosti. (MT/AFP, 06.05.25)
• Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office has designated the British Council — one of the organizers of the IELTS English-language exam — an “undesirable organization.” (Meduza, 06.05.25)

Friday, June 6, 2025

• The Trump administration is trying to get Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) to significantly weaken his Russia-sanctions bill while the White House seeks to patch up its relationship with Moscow instead of punishing it for the continued invasion of Ukraine. (Wall Street Journal, 06.06.25)
• The EU is weighing whether to add Russia to its “grey list” of countries with lax money laundering controls, as Brussels’ lawmakers aim to increase financial pressure on Moscow. (Financial Times, 06.06.25)
• Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office has outlawed the Association for Slavic, East European, and Eurasian Studies (ASEEES) as an “undesirable organization.” Established in 1948, ASEEES is based at the University of Pittsburgh. (Meduza, 06.06.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Saturday, May 31, 2025

• Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairperson Andrei Kartapolov told Kremlin newswire TASS on May 31 that Ukraine risks losing Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa and Mykolaiv cities if Ukraine refuses a peace settlement and claimed that every day that Ukraine delays a diplomatic solution to the war worsens the conditions for Ukraine. (ISW, 05.31.25)

Monday, June 2, 2025

• Moscow and Kyiv presented their respective roadmaps for a potential peace settlement as they held a second round of direct talks in Istanbul on June 2. The main points of disagreement remain the conditions for a ceasefire, as both sides continue military operations, as well as territorial disputes. (MT/AFP, 06.03.25)
• Ukraine and Russia agreed to hold a new prisoner exchange and swapped memorandums on a possible ceasefire to end Putin’s three-year war,” but remained “far apart on terms for a lasting ceasefire after a second round of peace talks in Istanbul” on June 2, Financial Times reported.[7] Ukraine’s delegation said that Russia had rejected its proposal for an unconditional ceasefire. (RM, 06.03.25)
  • Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said the meeting was “great” and added that he would move to organize a summit involving Putin, Zelenskyy and Trump. (Financial Times, 06.02.25)

Tuesday, June 3, 2025

• Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on June 3 in posts on his Russian- and English-language Telegram channels that Russia needs the negotiations in Istanbul to result in Russia's "swift victory [in Ukraine] and the complete destruction" of the Ukrainian government and not a "compromise[d] peace on someone else's delusional terms." Medvedev stated that Russia's June 2 Istanbul memorandum was in line with these goals and threatened that Russia will "explode" everything and "disappear" anyone who opposes Russia in response to the June 1 long-range Ukrainian drone strikes against Russia. (ISW, 06.03.25)

Wednesday, June 4, 2025

• After hearing a report from Russia's top investigator, who said that the railway attacks had been committed by Ukrainian special services, Putin accused on June 4 Kyiv's leadership of ordering them to disrupt the second round of the Russian-Ukrainian talks that took place on June 2 in Istanbul. Putin said Ukraine was run by a terrorist regime that targeted civilians and was still losing the war. He dismissed the idea of a meeting between him and Zelenskyy. "How to hold such meetings in these conditions? What to talk about? Who even negotiates with those who bet on terror, with terrorists?" he said, adding that "today they suffer one defeat after another on the battlefield. Apparently, we are dealing with people who not only lack any meaningful competence in anything, but also elementary political culture." (Washington Post, 06.04.25, New York Times, 06.04.25)
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a Kremlin event: “I believe that all means to achieve the just goals of the special military operation, including negotiations, must be put to use.” (Kremlin.ru, 06.09.25)
• Trump said Putin was not ready for an “immediate peace” in Ukraine after an hour-long conversation on June 4. The U.S. president said the call with Putin was “good,” covering both the fighting with Ukraine and ongoing negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, but added that it was not a conversation that would lead to a breakthrough in peace talks with Kyiv. “President Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields,” Trump said on Truth Social after the call, which he said lasted for an hour and 15 minutes. (Financial Times, 06.04.25)
• Trump said it might be necessary to let Ukraine and Russia “fight for a little while” before brokering a peace deal and suggested he might be willing to implement fresh sanctions on both countries if he determined the conflict wasn’t going to end. “Sometimes you let them fight for a little while,” Trump said during a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on June 5. Trump said he would be willing to punish both countries if he did not believe they were sincere about peace. Trump later posted a link to a column in the Washington Post supporting a Senate sanctions bill against countries that buy energy from Russia. (WSJ, 06.05.25, Bloomberg, 06.05.25)
  • Yuri Ushakov, a Kremlin foreign policy aide who briefed reporters on the Putin-Trump call, did not say whether Putin had discussed retaliation. But he described Ukraine's government and its actions, including apparent attacks on railroads over the weekend, as ''terrorist,''[8] disregarding that Russia initiated the war with its 2022 full-scale invasion and that in recent weeks it has stepped up its regular bombardment of Ukrainian cities and civilians. (New York Times, 06.04.25)
  • "For us it is an existential issue, an issue on our national interest, safety, on our future and the future of our children, of our country," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, responding to remarks by Trump on June 5 comparing Moscow and Kyiv to brawling children. (AFP, 06.06.25)
• On June 4, Zelenskyy rejected Russian proposals to end the fighting in Ukraine, calling them an "ultimatum" that Moscow sought to impose on Kyiv, which he said demonstrated that Putin was not interested in peace. Zelenskyy said that the proposals were simply "theater" from the Russians, aimed to postpone additional Western sanctions for as long as possible. Instead, the Ukrainian leader proposed that both sides introduce an unconditional ceasefire in the period leading up to a meeting among the leaders of Ukraine, Russia and the United States. (Washington Post, 06.04.25)
• Russia and Ukraine could schedule the third and next round of negotiations after the sides examine each other’s peace terms, the Kremlin said June 4. (MT/AFP, 06.04.25)

Thursday, June 5, 2025

• The U.S. is refusing to provide air defenses to back the “reassurance force” the U.K. and France are planning in a postwar Ukraine, people familiar with the matter said. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has insisted a U.S. so-called backstop is essential to deter Russia from breaching any future ceasefire deal. (Bloomberg, 06.04.25)
• Pope Leo XIV called Putin and urged the Kremlin leader to support peace with Ukraine, states the director of the Holy See Press Office, Matteo Bruni, according to Vatican News. According to Bruni, the Pope and Putin discussed the humanitarian situation, as well as the need to provide aid where it is most needed. (RBC.ua, 06.05.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• NATO allies were divided Thursday on how soon, if ever, they could spend 5% of their national income on defense as President Trump has demanded, but Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth confidently predicted ''we'll get them there,'' potentially as soon as this month. The United States spends about 3.4% of its G.D.P. on defense but, as the alliance's largest power, that amounts to far more money than any other NATO member. (New York Times, 06.06.25)
• NATO member states signed off on the military alliance’s most ambitious military ramp-up since the Cold War as leaders closed in on an agreement to ratchet up spending at a summit later this month. NATO defense ministers met in Brussels to formally adopt so-called capability targets, a set of highly classified lists of weaponry and personnel that each country must contribute to the alliance’s defense plans. It includes a five-fold increase in ground-based air-defense systems capabilities, Bloomberg reported this week. (Bloomberg, 06.05.25)
• Germany’s defense chief said his country will need to boost its armed forces by as many as 60,000 active soldiers as NATO member states commit to ramping up defense spending to deter Russia’s military threat. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Germany would take on the second-largest burden among the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s 32 member states as allies agree on a blueprint to re-arm. (Bloomberg, 06.05.25)
• UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is considering a Ministry of Defense request to back NATO’s proposed new military spending target of 3.5% of national output by 2032, a major new pledge that would test the UK’s already stretched public finances. UK’s newly-published Strategic Defense Review, co-led by Dr Fiona Hill, Lord Robertson, General Sir Richard Barrons warns that “The world was already in turmoil. Russia, a nuclear-armed state, had invaded and brutally occupied part of a neighboring sovereign state. And in doing this it was supported by China, supplied with equipment from Iran and by troops from North Korea, deployed in Europe for the first time ever.” (Bloomberg, RM, 06.03.25)
  • Russia is at war with Britain, the U.S. is no longer a reliable ally and the U.K. has to respond by becoming more cohesive and more resilient, according to Fiona Hill, one of the three authors of the strategic defense review. (Guardian, 06.06.25)
• Sweden is on track to increase military spending in line with goals that are expected to be agreed at NATO’s upcoming summit in the Hague, the Nordic country’s defense minister said. “We have a trajectory going up to 3.5% for pure military expenditures, and then 1.5% for military related defense expenditure. So all in all, 5%, Pal Jonson told Bloomberg on Saturday. (Bloomberg, 05.31.25)
• Ukraine has been invited to a NATO summit in The Hague this month, Mark Rutte, the military bloc's chief, said on Wednesday, without specifying whether this meant Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would attend. (Reuters, 06.04.25)
• Six men went on trial on Wednesday over an arson attack that prosecutors say was carried out on behalf of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group on a business in London involved in shipping goods to Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 06.04.25)
• In interviews, current and former senior European security officials spoke with a shared sense of unease, facing a stream of Russian proxy attacks at a time when the continued flow of alerts from U.S. suddenly seems less certain. Among the officials are senior security officials in Baltic, Nordic and Eastern European countries that have faced arson attacks, assassination plots and sabotage operations attributed to Russian proxies. (Washington Post, 06.05.25)
• Pessimistic sentiments about relations between Russia and the West prevail among Russians, with two-thirds of respondents believing that relations will always be based on mistrust (66%, the highest level in the entire observation period), according to Levada’s May 2025 poll. However, the majority of Russians support the need to improve relations with the West: the share of those who believe that Russia needs to improve relations with the United States and other Western countries has reached its highest level for the entire observation period—80% (an increase of 28 percentage points since May 2024). Only 14% of respondents say that there is no need to improve relations (the lowest level for the entire observation period), according to Levada. Another Levada poll shows a record of 64% of Russians favor negotiations on an end to the war. (Levada/RM, 06.06.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• President Xi Jinping said China will hold a military parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II on Sept. 3, an event that’s expected to bring his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to Beijing. The Chinese leader disclosed the plan for the first time during a meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Wednesday at the Communist Party’s leadership compound known as Zhongnanhai. (Bloomberg, 06.05.25)
• U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Asia’s security leaders on Saturday that as Europe takes on more of its own defense, the United States would work more closely with Indo-Pacific allies. Together, he said, they would jointly build more weapons, expand training, and deter China from trying to seize disputed territory, including Taiwan. “The threat China poses is real, and it could be imminent. We hope not, but it certainly could be,” he said. (New York Times, 05.31.25)
• “Chinese manufacturers provide them [Russia] with [drone] hardware, electronics, navigation, optical and telemetry systems, engines, microcircuits, processor modules, antenna field systems, control boards, navigation. They use so-called shell companies, change names, do everything to avoid being subject to export control and avoid sanctions for their activities,” said Oleh Aleksandrov, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service. “Yet officially, China sticks to all the rules. Yet only officially.” (Politico, 06.05.25)
• Imports of new passenger cars into Russia in May 2025 dropped by 74% year-on-year to 17,800 units, while imports of used vehicles increased by 23% to 37,100 units, Autostat Executive Director Sergey Udalov said during an operational meeting. In terms of countries of origin, China dominated the import of new cars, accounting for a 71% share, followed by Kyrgyzstan (9.1%) and South Korea (7.2%). (TASS, 06.5.25)

Missile defense:

• NATO is asking European member states to expand ground-based air-defense capabilities fivefold. (Bloomberg, 06.03.25)

Nuclear arms:

• Russia thinks chances are fading for agreeing on a new pact to replace the last nuclear arms control treaty with the U.S., which expires early next year, a top arms control official said. The main obstacle to any agreement is the state of U.S.-Russian ties, which are “in ruins,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. “There are no grounds for the full-scale resumption of the New START treaty under the current circumstances,” Ryabkov said, according to TASS. “Considering that the treaty is reaching the end of its life cycle in approximately eight months, any discussion about the realism of such a scenario is becoming increasingly meaningless.” (Bloomberg, 06.06.25)
• "We urge London and Washington to react in such a way as to stop further escalation," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who oversees relations with the U.S. and arms control, was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency. "All options are on the table," Ryabkov said, when asked what Russia's response to Ukraine's attacks would be. "This is a question for our military." (Reuters, 06.04.25)
• Ukrainian attacks on military airfields in Russia are a serious escalation of the conflict, Russian Ambassador to London Andrey Kelin told Sky News in an interview. "It is very serious escalation in terms of trying to damage strategic potential. It is blow for strategic stability," he said. "It is very serious thing to try to damage this strategic balance.” When asked whether everything is on the table, including a nuclear attack, Kelin responded by saying "I don't think so.” (TASS, 06.05.25, RM, 06.06.25, Sky News, 06.05.25)
• The UK envisages taking an enhanced role in NATO’s nuclear deterrence amid doubts surrounding the U.S. commitment to the alliance, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledges to make Britain “war-ready” to counter Russian aggression in Europe. The UK intends to send a “message to Moscow” with plans to expand its fleet of attack submarines and invest in its nuclear deterrent as part of a new defense strategy to head off the threat posed by Russia. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government will on Monday reveal plans to spend £15 billion ($20 billion) on its warhead program and build up to 12 new submarines. (Bloomberg, 06.01.25, Bloomberg, 06.03.25)
  • UK’s newly-published Strategic Defense Review, co-led by Dr Fiona Hill, Lord Robertson, General Sir Richard Barrons warns that“ Russia’s increasing reliance on nuclear coercion will be the central challenge for the UK and its NATO Allies in the coming decades. Russia is modernizing and expanding its extensive set of nuclear capabilities, which are designed for employment at multiple levels of warfare. Its strategies for warfighting rely on the threat of limited nuclear use to terminate a conflict on advantageous terms. China’s unprecedented nuclear expansion will place demands on U.S. nuclear forces and the deterrence it extends to the Euro-Atlantic. Potential collaboration and opportunism among these and other nuclear challengers—of the type seen in Ukraine—add further complexity to deterrence, escalation dynamics, and allied assurance.” (RM, 06.03.25)
• The number of nuclear warheads worldwide has increased by 220 to 12,340 due to a nuclear arms buildup in the United States, China, and India, the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition (RECNA) at Nagasaki University said in a report. (TASS, 06.04.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Ukrainian special services reportedly used artificial intelligence (AI) to direct drones during Operation Spider's Web. The SBU stated on June 4 that it used "autonomous artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms and manual operator intervention" to conduct the June 1 strikes against Russian air bases. (ISW, 06.04.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia’s Gazprom PJSC has quietly shelved plans to develop a new gas distribution hub in Turkey. The outcome closed an opportunity for Gazprom, to restore at least some of gas supplies to Europe, which used to bring in about $8 billion a month in revenue. (Bloomberg, 06.03.25)
• The value of Russia’s crude shipments fell again in the four weeks to June 1 as a sharp decline in exports offset the first increase in the price of Moscow’s key export grades in almost two months. Flows averaged 3.24 million barrels a day in the four weeks to June 1, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. That was down by 170,000 barrels a day from the period to May 25. (Bloomberg, 06.03.25)
• OPEC+ agreed to surge oil output for the third month in a row. Oil-producing nations led by Saudi Arabia agreed to add 411,000 barrels a day to the market in July, according to a statement on the group’s website. The hike matches increases scheduled for May and June, marking a radical reversal from defending prices to actively driving them lower. “ (Bloomberg, 05.31.25)
• Russia’s proceeds from oil in the state budget shrank last month to the lowest since June 2023 as global crude prices declined. Oil-related taxes dropped by 32% last month from a year earlier to 430.4 billion rubles ($5.5 billion), according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data published on Wednesday. Combined oil and gas revenue totaled 512.7 billion rubles, down more than 35%. (Bloomberg, 06.04.25)
• Russia’s data show the nation kept its crude oil production below its OPEC+ target in May, according to people familiar with the figures. Producers pumped 8.979 million barrels a day last month, almost unchanged from April levels, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public. That’s 19,000 barrels a day below Russia’s target for May under the OPEC+ deal. (Bloomberg, 06.05.25)
• A large Republican donor wants to buy a Russian pipeline to Germany. The White House has entertained the idea of working with the Kremlin to supply Russian gas to Europe. An American investor tried last month to sell top German economic officials on an audacious plan to buy a Russian undersea pipeline. Despite years of international friction over the pipeline, he proposed to eventually activate it and deliver natural gas to Germany. The investor, Stephen P. Lynch, had already made the pitch to the Trump administration, which he was betting would want U.S. control over a pivotal piece of energy infrastructure. Now the Germans wanted to hear for themselves about Mr. Lynch’s proposal to lead a takeover of the much-criticized pipeline on the floor of the Baltic Sea, called Nord Stream 2. (New York Times, 06.05.25)
• The European Union’s executive branch plans to present draft regulations in the middle of this month to phase out Russian energy imports by the end of 2027. (Bloomberg, 06.04.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Putin isn’t likely to meet Trump and Zelenskyy in the near future, the Kremlin said a day after Kyiv and Moscow held another round of inconclusive peace talks. “Truth be told, this is unlikely to happen in the near future,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday, according to the Interfax news service. “President Putin supports such contacts but thinks they should be well prepared.” Turkey, which hosted Monday’s negotiations in Istanbul, proposed a three-way leaders’ summit involving Russia, Ukraine and the U.S.. Trump is “open” to meeting Putin and Zelenskyy, the White House said after the two sides failed to agree on a ceasefire. (Bloomberg, 06.03.25)
• A court in occupied eastern Ukraine has sentenced a former U.S. journalist who briefly served as a spokesperson for Ukraine’s military to 20 years in prison in absentia, Russian authorities announced Monday. Sarah Ashton-Cirillo, 47, traveled from the United States to Ukraine in March 2022 to report on Russia’s invasion and later joined the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces. (MT/AFP, 06.02.25)
• U.S. citizen Joseph Tater, who was arrested in Moscow last August and later sent for compulsory psychiatric treatment, has left Russia, the state news agency TASS said on Friday. (MT/AFP, 06.06.25)
• The Trump administration notified Congress this week of a plan that would eliminate nearly all of the remaining employees at Voice of America, a federally funded news network that provides independent reporting to countries with limited press freedom. (New York Times, 06.04.25)
• The public falling-out between President Trump and Elon Musk is generating sympathy and online memes in Russia, where officials have come to view the pair as allies of their country. Russia could offer political asylum to Musk following his public fallout with U.S. President Donald Trump, said Dmitry Novikov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma’s International Affairs Committee. (MT/AFP, 06.06.25, New York Times, 06.06.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Nearly half of the Russian soldiers returning from the front lines in Ukraine remain unemployed, officials said, underscoring the Kremlin’s ongoing challenge in reintegrating combat veterans into civilian life. According to a report presented by Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova on Tuesday, only 57% of demobilized veterans from the war in Ukraine have found employment as of May 1. About 80% of these men signed formal labor contracts, while the rest registered as self-employed or pursued freelance work. (MT/AFP, 06.03.25)
• The Bank of Russia reduced the benchmark rate by a full percentage point to 20% on Friday. (Bloomberg, 06.06.25)
• Liquid assets in Russia’s National Wealth Fund, the country’s rainy-day reserves, declined by 14% in May, as increasing spending on the war in Ukraine and falling oil prices squeeze the budget. The fund’s readily usable resources declined to 2.8 trillion rubles ($35.7 billion) in the month, the Finance Ministry said on Wednesday. That’s a loss of 453.8 billion rubles ($5.8 billion) available for budget deficit financing. “This is the lowest level since 2019, raising concerns about the fund’s ability to fulfill its stabilization role in the event of economic shocks,” said Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global. (Bloomberg, 06.04.25)
• Russian billionaires have collectively gained $22.5 billion since the start of the year, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The ranking of the world’s top 500 richest people includes 22 Russians whose combined wealth stood at $317.7 billion as of Monday. Metals tycoon Vladimir Potanin remained Russia’s richest person, with his net worth rising by $3.82 billion since January to $31.7 billion. He was followed by Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov, whose net worth rose by $561 million to $25.9 billion, and mining magnate Vladimir Lisin, who retained third place with $24.2 billion despite losing $1.62 billion in five months. The only Russian billionaire to lose more than Lisin was fertilizer tycoon and AS Monaco football club owner Dmitry Rybolovlev, whose wealth dropped by $1.77 billion to $9.21 billion, placing him in the bottom five. (MT/AFP, 06.02.25)
• Russia is preparing to launch a sweeping new system to monitor migrant workers, combining biometric registration, location tracking, and intensified police oversight. (RFE/RL, 06.06.25)
• Hopes for a rebound in Russia’s auto market have faltered as vehicle sales declined sharply in May despite an uptick in the previous month. Sales of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles fell by 27.5% year-over-year in May to 98,300 units, according to figures from the Industry and Trade Ministry based on vehicle registration data. Passenger car sales alone fell 28% from May 2024, totaling just 90,700 vehicles. That marks a continued year-over-year decline following April’s 26% drop—a trend that has held steady through the first five months of the year. (MT/AFP, 06.03.25)
• Elizaveta Krivonogikh, the alleged daughter of Russian President Vladimir Putin, works as a manager at two Paris art galleries known for exhibiting anti-war art, Russian artist Nastya Rodionova reported on Thursday. (Meduza, 06.06.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• In 2025, Russia’s military spending will reach nearly $172 billion: equivalent to 7.7% of GDP and a 12% increase on 2024. The 2025–2027 fiscal plan locks in this high level—about 7 per cent of GDP—for the entire period, and that is unlikely to change. (FT, 06.05.25)
• Authorities in the republic of Bashkortostan later this week will lower one-time payments for men who sign army contracts, joining a handful of other regions in reducing financial incentives for military service in Ukraine. Those who signed military contracts between Jan. 1 and June 4 are eligible for a one-time payment of 1.6 million rubles ($20,300), according to a decree signed by Bashkortostan’s regional head Radiy Khabirov. (MT/AFP, 06.03.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• No significant developments.

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The Wagner Group announced that it has completed its “main mission” in Mali and is withdrawing from the country. (Meduza, 06.06.25)
• India and the Moscow-backed Eurasian Economic Union will begin trade talks this year, a Russian official said. (Bloomberg, 06.02.25)
• Russia’s diamond exports have fallen to their lowest level in over a decade. According to figures from the Kimberley Process, a global certification scheme for rough diamonds, Russia exported 30.37 million carats in 2024, a 6.27% drop from the previous year and the lowest figure since at least 2015. In value terms, Russian diamond exports plunged 28.6% last year to $2.62 billion as buyers fled and prices for Russian stones fell 24% to $86.36 per carat. (MT/AFP, 06.04.25)
• The widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny and Reporters Without Borders on Tuesday praised the launch of a television channel that aims to bypass censorship in Russia and preserve the Kremlin critic's legacy. The channel, called Future of Russia, will be broadcast via a free-to-air satellite platform run by the press freedom advocacy group Reporters Without Borders, known by its French abbreviation RSF. (MT/AFP, 06.03.25)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine has incurred a sovereign credit default after electing not to make payments owed Monday to holders of $2.6 billion of its debt securities. Ukraine's Finance Ministry said last week the planned nonpayment was part of the nation's broader strategy as it aims to complete a comprehensive restructuring of its sovereign obligations that will "ensure long-term debt sustainability without threatening Ukraine's recovery and reconstruction." (Wall Street Journal, 06.03.25)
• Ukraine’s central bank left its key interest rate steady for the second straight meeting as inflation is expected to ease while war-related risks weigh down the economy. The National Bank of Ukraine kept the benchmark rate at 15.5% on Thursday, it said in a statement on the website, in line with expectation from all seven economists in a Bloomberg survey. (Bloomberg, 06.05.25)
• In the Lviv region, the State Bureau of Investigations uncovered a lieutenant colonel who demanded €15,000 for the illegal transfer of a conscript across Ukraine’s border. (Antikor, 06.06.25)
• Ukraine’s anti-graft authorities have sent to court a criminal case against two officials from Ukrzaliznytsia, the state-owned railway company, accused of embezzling nearly $290,000 through a rigged coal procurement tender. (Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, 06.06.25)
• “In the Lviv region, the State Bureau of Investigations uncovered a lieutenant colonel who demanded €15,000 for the illegal transfer of a conscript across Ukraine’s border. According to the investigation, the official personally met with the conscript’s parent and informed him of the exact time, place, and method of crossing the state border, guaranteeing a safe exit without checks. After that, the lieutenant colonel received the agreed amount as payment for the services.” (Antikor, 06.06.25)
• “Ukraine’s anti-graft authorities have sent to court a criminal case against two officials from Ukrzaliznytsia, the state-owned railway company, accused of embezzling nearly $290,000 through a rigged coal procurement tender. (Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, 06.06.25)
• In the Mykolaiv region, the GBR identified servicemen who [illegally] demanded money from the fighters for the "problem-free" return to service after the unauthorized abandonment of the unit. For $3,000, they promised to avoid legal consequences and non-participation in hostilities. [Servicemen were] reminded that until August 2025, servicemen who left the units without leave have a legal opportunity to voluntarily return to service without legal consequences for them. (Korrespondent.net, 06.05.25) Machine translated.

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Russia wants to deploy 10,000 troops in the separatist Transnistria region on Ukraine’s border and aims to install a pro-Kremlin government in Moldova to do so, the country’s prime minister Dorin Recean said. (Financial Times, 06.04.25)
• Belarus and China have agreed to strengthen their relations, Belarusian President Alexander told reporters following a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. "We agreed that we should intensify our interaction," BelTA quoted the Belarusian leader as saying. (TASS, 06.04.25)

IV. Quotable and notable:

• “I think we’re pretty certain that Vladimir Putin was contemplating the use of tactical nuclear weapons in 2022 … Putin was talking quite openly and loosely about the use of a nuclear weapon and making threats, even when there’d been no change in the strategic perspective. … Putin was not only threatening to use nuclear weapons, but also clearly contemplating their use for tactical purposes on a battlefield. So, this has changed the whole picture in two ways: both in the rhetorical sense, in terms of the willingness to threaten the use nuclear weapons, and also a real sense, in terms of the actual contemplation of use, ” said Fiona Hill, member of Harvard University’s board of overseers. (Engelsberg Ideas, 06.03.25)

V. Useful data

From “several” to “more than 40”: Estimates of damage done to Russian aircraft in the June 1, 2025, attacks by Ukrainian drones (estimates of how many aircraft were damaged beyond repair/destroyed not specified)

Table 1

Levada Center’s May 2025 polling of Russians on the Russian-Ukrainian war

Figure 1

Table 2 

Table 3

Table 4

Figure 2

Levada Center’s May 2025 polling of Russians on their attitudes towards foreign countries:

Figure 3 

Figure 4

Table 5: When asked by Levada to describe their attitude towards the U.S., Russians said:

Table 6: When asked by Levada to describe their attitude towards Ukraine, Russians said:

UK Support to Ukraine:

Table 7: UK Support to Ukraine Since 2022, according to “Strategic Defense Review,” led by Lord Robertson of Port Ellen, General Sir Richard Barrons, and Dr. Fiona Hill, UK government, 2025.

Footnotes

1. See Table 1 in Section V for estimates of damage caused by the June 1 strikes.
2. Full texts of the two memoranda available in the June 2, 2025, edition of RM’s Russia Analytical Report.
3. See Tables 2-6 and Figures 3-4 in Section V for additional relevant data.
4. A video shared widely online, and verified by The Times, shows a recording of the software responsible for piloting the Ukrainian's drones as their assault on the Belaya air base began. To assess the damage at the air base, The Times obtained radar imagery from a space imaging company, Umbra, that can see through cloudy skies. Seven strategic bombers appear to be completely destroyed, very likely four Tupolev Tu-22M and three Tupolev Tu-95 bombers. (New York Times, 06.05.25)
5. An earlier estimate by WaPo: At least 13 aircraft were damaged in Ukraine's attack June 1 on military bases deep inside Russia, according to a Washington Post review of verified video and satellite imagery. (Washington Post, 06.03.25)
6. Drones were reported to have landed on two A-50 planes, which provide early warning of potential threats as well as command and control of the battlefield. The A-50s didn't have engines on them, calling into question whether the planes were operational. (WSJ, 06.04.25) However, available satellite imagery doesn't show any damaged A-50s. (WSJ, 06.05.25)
7. You can find the texts of the memorandum in RM’s June 2, 2025, Russia Analytical Report digest.
8. Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov stated that Putin later emphasized Ukraine's alleged "terrorism" during a phone call on June 4 with Trump. Ushakov repeated Putin's claim that Ukraine has "degenerated into a terrorist organization." (ISW, 06.04.25)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka.