4 Things to Know

1. The U.S. has joined a dozen other NATO members who allow Ukraine to use at least some of the weapons they supply to attack military targets in Russia, but with caveats. The new U.S. policy allows Ukraine to use artillery and to fire short-range rockets from HIMARS launchers against facilities inside Russia that are being used by Russian forces to carry out their attack on Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine, according to FT, WSJ and other Western media. However, the U.S. would not permit the use of ATACMS or long-range missiles inside Russia, NYT reported, citing U.S. officials who disclosed the revised policy. Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to this development by warning of a “global conflict,” while his deputy at Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev issued yet another not-so-implicit warning that Russia may  resort to nuclear strikes on NATO countries. 
2. Ukrainian drones have reportedly attacked two of Russia’s Voronezh-DM class early warning radars in the past week. First a Ukrainian drone attacked one such radar in the Krasnodar region on May 23. Then another such radar was attacked in the Orenburg region on May 27. A Ukrainian official familiar with the matter claimed to WP that Russia has used the radar sites to monitor the Ukrainian military’s activities, particularly Kyiv’s use of drones and missiles. According to CEIP’s James Acton, however, while the radar in the Krasnodar region can be used to track some launches of Ukrainian ballistic missiles, it cannot track drones. The dual attacks prompted the Biden administration to express “concern” through an anonymous official, but not much more in the public domain, even though Russia’s 2020 “Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence” warn that “conditions specifying the possibility of nuclear weapons” include “attack by adversary against critical governmental or military sites of the Russian Federation, disruption of which would undermine nuclear forces response actions.”
3. In the past month, Russian forces have gained 172 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile, according to the May 28, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov claimed on May 31 that Russian forces have seized some 880 square kilometers of territory this year, according to AFP. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, ''Russia is preparing for offensive actions,'' around 60 miles northwest of Kharkiv, NYT reported. Russia has amassed some 10,000 troops across from the northeastern Ukrainian region of Sumy, according to Ukrainian officials.
4. Ukraine’s hopes that that the upcoming peace conference in Switzerland would yield significant pressure on Russia have diminished somewhat in the past week as it became clear that U.S. President Joe Biden would rather attend a fund-raising event in California, while the Chinese government announced that not only will its representatives be a no show at the June 15-16 event, but that it will also team up with the government of Brazil to pursue a rival event, to which Russia would be invited. Zelenskyy’s office this week has issued a memo to officials and MPs to criticize both Biden and Xi Jinping for not attending the summit. “If they don’t [attend], then what is their real interest?” FT quoted the memo as saying. Zelenskyy is particularly frustrated with Biden’s choice, with a senior Ukrainian government official describing the U.S.-Ukraine relationship as “farther apart than ever since the war started ... very, very tense,” according to FT.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs

• Russia fired ballistic missiles provided by North Korea against Ukrainian forces in the country’s northeast, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency said in a report, offering fresh evidence of a deepening military alliance between the two U.S. adversaries. (Bloomberg, 05.30.24)
• Western allies on May 31 issued a joint statement calling on North Korea to stop its weapons transfers to Russia for use in Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. The statement signed by the United States, Australia, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea said they were "gravely concerned" by the increased cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang in defiance of U.N. resolutions. (RFE/RL, 05.31.24)
• A North Korean rocket carrying a spy satellite blew up shortly after liftoff in a setback for leader Kim Jong Un, who went to Russia last year seeking help to place an array of reconnaissance probes into orbit. (Bloomberg, 05.27.24)
  • A large number of Russian experts went to North Korea to help with its spy satellite development, South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported. The report did not say how many Russian experts have visited or when exactly any visit took place. (Bloomberg, 05.26.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russia's Sergei Lavrov and Iran's new acting foreign minister, Ali Bagheri Kani, reaffirmed their countries’ ties and “strategic partnership” in a phone call on May 25, less than a week after Iran’s president, foreign minister, and others died in a helicopter crash in northern Iran. (RFE/RL, 05.25.24)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Seventy-one soldiers and four civilians were returned to Ukraine through the prisoner swap on May 31. Russia and Ukraine have held their first prisoner swap in more than three months, with each side exchanging 75 people in a deal mediated by the United Arab Emirates. (RFE/RL, 05.31.24)
• Ukraine’s new prison camp "Center-3" received the first Russian prisoners of war. Due to the large number of Russians who surrendered and the actual blocking of exchanges by the Russian side, Ukraine is forced to open new places for holding prisoners of war. (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.29.24)
• Russia’s human rights commissioner Tatiana Moskalkova has blamed the authorities in Kyiv for roadblocking efforts to secure the further release of prisoners of war. She did not specify what demands Ukraine was said to have been making. (MT/AFP, 05.29.24)
• The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe's Committee on Culture supported a resolution that recognizes Russia's deliberate erasure of Ukrainian culture as an element of Russia's genocidal campaign in occupied Ukraine. (ISW, 05.28.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month, Russian forces have gained 172 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile, according to the May 28, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force, 05.28.24)
  • Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov claimed on May 31 that Russian forces are advancing on all fronts in Ukraine and have seized some 880 square kilometers of territory this year alone. If confirmed, Russia would have made more gains in the past five months than in all of 2023, when the front line remained largely static despite a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the summer. (MT/AFP, 05.31.24)
• On May 25, Russia said it had captured another village in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region, Arkhanhelske, located to the north of the city of Donetsk. The small frontline village is near the town of Ocheretyne, which Russia said it had captured early this month. (MT/AFP, 05.25.24)
• On May 25, a Russian gliding bomb struck a home-improvement superstore in Kharkiv, killing 14, the regional governor said. Interior minister Igor Klymenko said earlier that 43 were injured and "16 people are considered missing.” (Bloomberg, 05.26.24, MT/AFP, 05.25.24)
• On May 25, Ukrainian shelling of a Russian town close to the border killed two people, Belgorod region governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said. The governor said that according to initial information 10 other people received shrapnel injuries, including an eight-year-old boy. (MT/AFP, 05.25.24)
• On May 26, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine said forces were massing for a new ground offensive on the northeast of his country. ''Russia is preparing for offensive actions,'' around 60 miles northwest of Kharkiv, he said, adding that Moscow was gathering ''another group of troops near our border.'' (NYT, 05.27.24)
• On May 27, one person was killed and three others were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on a gas station in Russia's Oryol region, local officials said. "A drone fell this morning on the territory of a gas station in the town of Livny," said Oryol region Gov. Andrei Klychkov, adding that the facade of a government building was damaged. Another drone attacked the area after emergency services responded to the scene, Klychkov said. (MT/AFP, 05.27.24)
• On May 29, Ukraine's air defenses shot down 13 of the 14 drones launched by Russia early that day at three of its regions, the Ukrainian Air Force reported. (RFE/RL, 05.29.24)
• On May 29, two people were killed and three wounded when Russian troops shelled Krasnopil in the northeastern region of Sumy, the regional military administration reported. (RFE/RL, 05.29.24)
• On May 29-30, Ukraine downed seven out of 11 cruise missiles fired from bombers flying over the Saratov region in Russia. Ukraine also destroyed all 32 explosive-laden Shahed drones included in the barrage, while another eight Russian missiles hit the Kharkiv region. (Bloomberg, 05.30.24)
• On May 30, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s commander in chief, said that Moscow was redeploying troops toward Vovchansk and Lyptsi, two settlements near the city of Kharkiv that Russian forces have been trying to capture for more than two weeks. Other officials have also said that Russia has massed troops further north, across from the Ukrainian region of Sumy, in preparation for a possible ground offensive in that area. The massing of Russian troops north of the border near the city of Sumy, about 90 miles northwest of Kharkiv, makes the situation even more precarious, expanding the amount of territory Ukraine must defend. Analysts say an offensive in the Kharkiv or Sumy regions could stretch Ukrainian troops to the breaking point and allow Russia to punch through. (NYT, 05.30.24)
  • Russia plans to strengthen its military presence in Ukraine and near its borders with hundreds of thousands of new soldiers, according to Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. According to the Minister of Defense, Russia currently has about 500,000 troops concentrated in Ukraine and near its borders. However, Umerov added that Moscow was preparing to increase this number by 200-300,000. (RBC.ua, 05.29.24)
  • Ukrainian officials say that Russia has amassed some 10,000 troops across from the northeastern Ukrainian region of Sumy, in preparation for a possible ground offensive, and that their hands will be tied unless they can strike across the border. (NYT, 05.28.24)
• On May 30, Ukraine's GUR military intelligence service said its forces had used waterborne drones to destroy two Russian patrol boats off the coast of the annexed Crimean peninsula. (MT/AFP, 05.30.24)
• On May 30, Russia's Defense Ministry said that it downed 13 Ukrainian drones in the southern Krasnodar region and areas close to the annexed Crimean peninsula. (MT/AFP, 05.30.24)
• A May 30-31 overnight Ukrainian drone strike in southern Russia’s Krasnodar region sparked a large fire and injured at least two workers at an oil depot, regional authorities said May 31. Russia’s Defense Ministry said its air defense systems destroyed 29 Ukrainian drones and five missiles over the region. Krasnodar region Gov. Venyamin Kondratyev said an aerial attack set three tanks filled with petroleum products on fire in the Temryuk district, which lies just east of annexed Crimea. (MT/AFP, 05.31.24)
• On May 31, Russia continued its bombardment of Kharkiv. At least five people have been killed and more than two dozen injured in Russian missile attacks in the northeastern city, Gov. Oleh Syniehubov said on Telegram on May 31. (DPA, 05.31.24)
• On May 31, Ukrainian OSINT group, which maps out changes in territorial control, reported on its Telegram channel that the Russian forces had advanced near Novopokrovsky, Rabotyne and Chasivy Yar. (RM, 05.31.24)
• Russians have used over 3,000 guided aerial bombs (KABs) in attacks on Ukraine over the past month. (Korrespondent.net, 05.27.24)
• The Ukrainian army has increasingly used U.S.-supplied long-range missiles to target Russian airfields and warships deep inside Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, but it has been barred by Washington from extending its attacks into Russia proper. (NYT, 05.25.24)
• Many U.S.-made satellite-guided munitions in Ukraine have failed to withstand Russian jamming technology. Russia's jamming of the guidance systems of modern Western weapons, including Excalibur GPS-guided artillery shells and HIMARS, has eroded Ukraine's ability to defend its territory and has left officials in Kyiv urgently seeking help from the Pentagon to obtain upgrades from arms manufacturers. The success rate for the U.S.-designed Excalibur shells, for example, fell sharply over a period of months - to less than 10 % hitting their targets - before Ukraine's military abandoned them last year, according to the confidential Ukrainian assessments. Six months ago, after Ukrainians reported the problem, Washington simply stopped providing Excalibur shells. In other cases, such as aircraft-dropped bombs called JDAMs, the manufacturer provided a patch and Ukraine continues to use them. (WP, 05.25.24)
• Russia has deployed advanced tech to interfere with Elon Musk's satellite internet service, Ukrainian officials said, leading to more outages on the northern front battle line. (NYT, 05.28.24)
• Eagle Eyes is a remarkable software package for drones. Developed by Ukraine’s special forces, it allows drones to navigate by machine sight alone, with no need for outside input. Using artificial-intelligence (AI) algorithms, the software compares live video of the terrain below with an on-board map stitched together from photographs and video previously collected by reconnaissance aircraft. This allows for drones to continue with their missions even after being jammed. (The Economist, 05.29.24)
• Ahead of the one-year mark of the war, the GUR was planning attacks on Moscow, according to a leaked classified report from the U.S. National Security Agency that was later confirmed by two senior Ukrainian military officials. Days before the attack, U.S. officials asked Kyiv to scrub their plans, fearing it could provoke an aggressive response from the Kremlin; the Ukrainians complied, according to the leaked U.S. documents and the senior Ukrainian officials. (WP, 05.29.24)
• War has turned the Tysa river, which form part of the border between Ukraine and Romania, into a desperate frontier. Forbidden from leaving their country legally, thousands of Ukrainian men of military age (currently 18-60) gamble their lives by swimming across it. At least 33 have drowned since the start of the war, the youngest just 20. The death toll is probably much higher, Ukraine’s border service says, with bodies still stuck in the reeds under the water and unlikely ever to be recovered. (The Economist, 05.30.24)
• Sri Lanka's Foreign Ministry said May 30 it is seeking the release of hundreds of its ex-soldiers fighting for Russia, as well as around a dozen prisoners of war in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 05.30.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• The U.S. has eased restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S. weapons to hit Russian military targets attacking Kharkiv. The new policy will allow Ukrainian forces to use artillery and fire short-range rockets from HIMARS launchers against command posts, arms depots and other assets on Russian territory that are being used by Russian forces to carry out its attack on Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine. The move falls short of a sweeping greenlight for Ukraine to use U.S. weapons to strike everywhere inside Russia. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on May 31 that the U.S. will continue to adapt its policies on the use of its weapons by Ukraine in the war against Russia. (FT, 05.31.24, WSJ, 05.31.24)
  • Ukraine can now strike into Russia with SCALP missiles from France and, potentially soon, the identical Storm Shadow missiles supplied by Britain. Although the British foreign minister, David Cameron, said on May 3 that Ukraine should be able to attack Russia with Western weapons, London has not yet given its full permission, Zelenskyy told The Guardian in an interview published May 31. The SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles have a range of about 150 miles. Several countries — Britain, Germany, Norway and the United States — have given Ukraine ground-based launchers that can fire longer-range missiles. Those systems are known as HIMARS and MLRS launchers. However, in disclosing the new policy, U.S. officials said their policy would not permit the use of ATACMS or long-range missiles that can strike deep into Russia. (NYT, 05.31.24)
• In addition to the U.S., NATO countries that are not against Ukraine’s attacks on Russia with their weapons include the U.K., France, Canada, Germany, Sweden, Denmark, Czechia, Poland, Finland, Estonia and Latvia. (RBC.ua, 05.29.24, Politico, 05.31.24, ISW, 05.30.24)
  • Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said May 30 that allies are heading toward an agreement on strikes in Russian territory. "We are moving on that in the international sphere," he said. "The aggressor is Russia." (WP, 05.30.24)
  • Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen confirmed May 30 that Denmark will allow Ukraine to use Danish-provided weapons and promised F-16 fighter jets to strike military targets in Russia. (ISW, 05.30.24)
  • Emmanuel Macron has called for Ukraine to be allowed to use Western weapons against military sites in Russia, becoming the most senior NATO leader to ask for targeting restrictions set by Kyiv’s backers to be lifted. Olaf Scholz signaled support for Ukraine on May 28 alongside Macron, saying it had every right “under international law” to hit targets in Russia in order to defend itself. (FT, 05.29.24)
  • The German government has given Ukraine permission to strike Russian territory with weapons provided by Berlin, a government spokesperson said May 31. Ukraine “has the right, guaranteed under international law, to defend itself against these attacks,” he said. Germany is providing as much as €500 million ($542 million) in additional military aid to Ukraine, including air-defense missiles, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said. (Bloomberg, 05.30.24, Politico, 05.31.24)
  • “I truly hope that all the countries that have these assets will also give permission to Ukraine,” Estonian Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur told reporters, adding that Ukraine was already striking targets in Russian territory with its own drones. (Bloomberg, 05.28.24)
  • Norway believes that Ukraine should be granted the right to attack Russian territory using Western weapons, states Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide in an interview with NRK. (RBC.ua, 05.30.24)
  • Canada, when transferring weapons to Ukraine, did not set any conditions on the possibility of their use in relation to the territory of the Russian Federation. (Korrespondent.net, 05.29.24)
  • On May 27, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, made up of lawmakers from countries belonging to the military alliance, adopted a declaration urging NATO members to lift a ban on firing Western weapons into Russia. (NYT, 05.28.24)
    • NATO members should ease their prohibitions on using weapons they supply to Ukraine to strike military targets in Russia, the alliance’s secretary-general said in an interview with The Economist. (Bloomberg, 05.25.24)
  • EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on May 28 urged countries to balance fear of escalation against Ukraine's need to defend itself, saying Kyiv had the right to use Western arms to strike in Russia. (MT/AFP, 05.28.24)
    • Russian President Vladimir Putin warned May 28 of "serious consequences" and “a “global conflict” if Western countries allowed Ukraine to use their weapons to strike Russia. Speaking in Uzbekistan, Putin's comments came in response to calls within some NATO member states to allow Ukraine to hit targets inside Russia. "This constant escalation can lead to serious consequences," Putin said. "In Europe, especially in small countries, they should be aware of what they are playing with," he added. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg on May 31 dismissed Putin’s warnings. (MT/AFP, 05.28.24, Reuters, 05.31.24, AFP, 05.31.24)
    •  Also see the nuclear arms section for D. Medvedev’s reaction.
• NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg will ask allies to pledge a minimum of 40 billion euros ($43.37 billion) annually to fund military aid for Ukraine, an alliance source told Reuters on May 30, as NATO foreign ministers gathered. NATO foreign ministers were meeting in the Czech capital on May 31 to prepare for this summer’s leaders’ summit as the alliance boosts support for Ukraine and countries one-by-one remove restrictions on how Kyiv can use Western-supplied weaponry to combat Russia’s invasion. (AP, 05.31.24, Reuters, 05.30.24)
• France could soon send military trainers to Ukraine. France would initially send a limited number of personnel to assess the modalities of a mission before dispatching several hundred trainers. Training would center around demining, keeping equipment operational and technical expertise for warplanes to be provided by the West, they said. Paris would also finance, arm, and train a Ukrainian motorized brigade. France is also seeking to assemble a coalition of European countries willing to send military trainers to Ukraine. Macron is expected to unveil France’s plan to send army trainers next week when he hosts Zelenskyy in Normandy along with other leaders, including U.S. President Joe Biden, on the 80th anniversary of D-Day. Zelenskyy will embark on a working visit to France on June 6, according to Macron. (Reuters, 05.30.24, FT, 05.30.24, RBC.ua, 05.29.24)
  • On May 27, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s commander in chief, welcomed in a social media post “France’s initiative to send instructors to Ukraine to train Ukrainian military personnel,” saying he had already signed documents that would facilitate their arrival. Ukraine’s defense ministry later clarified that no decision had been made and that the Ukrainian and French governments were “still in discussion” over the issue. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov held talks with French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu. Syrskyi praised France for its initiative to send instructors to train Ukrainian troops. (NYT, 05.28.24, Bloomberg, 05.27.24)
• NATO will establish a permanent structure to organize and finance supplying weapons to Ukraine. The first decisions may come as early as the Alliance's summit in Washington, says NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at a session of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. "I strongly believe that we need a firmer, stronger institutional structure for the support. Short-termed voluntary announcements are good, but in the long term we need more predictable stronger support for Ukraine," he said. (Korrespondent.net, 05.27.24)
• Zelenskyy traveled to Spain on May 27 and then Belgium this week to sign bilateral security agreements. As part of the agreements, both Spain and Belgium said they would allocate one billion euros, about $1.1 billion, of military aid to Ukraine this year. Belgium also pledged on May 28 to give Kyiv 30 F-16 fighter jets over the next four years. Ukraine is also close to signing a new bilateral security pact with the U.S. The agreement would see the U.S. support Ukraine’s defense and security along a wide range of capabilities, including air defenses and drones, and ramp up efforts to build up the country’s defense industrial base to allow for more production of artillery and ammunition. (Bloomberg, 05.30.24, RBC.ua, 05.29.24, NYT, 05.28.24, FT, 05.30.24)
• Ukraine has signed security agreements with Iceland, Norway and Sweden. "The agreement is a powerful signal to Russia that it is basically pointless to continue the war with the assumption that Western countries will tire," Sweden's Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said on May 31 before the signing ceremony in Stockholm. (DPA, 05.31.24)
  • Sweden will provide two surveillance aircraft to Ukraine. The aid announced May 29 is worth a total of 13.3 billion kronor ($1.3 billion), and includes Saab AB’s ASC 890 aircraft with Erieye radars that can be used to detect drones, missiles and aircraft, as well as seaborne targets. (Bloomberg, 05.29.24)
• Russia is beating Western capitals in securing artillery supplies on international markets, the Czech government has said, warning that delayed payments to arms companies could lead to millions of ammunition rounds being sent to Moscow instead of Kyiv. “There are some countries that are supplying [Ukraine] from the same stockpiles that the Russians are [buying from],” Tomáš Kopečný, Prague’s envoy for the reconstruction of Ukraine, told journalists May 30. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said that 15 EU and NATO countries had so far contributed €1.6 billion to the Czech initiative, which was announced in February and aims to provide 1.5 million artillery shells to Ukraine. (FT, 05.30.24)
  • Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has called on allies to deliver regular shipments of artillery ammunition from the Czech-led initiative starting next month as Kyiv seeks to repel Russia’s onslaught along the front line. “It’s important for us so that the ammunition arrives on time, systematically and according to the schedule starting in June already,” he said in a post on Telegram. Ukrainian prime minister has arrived in Prague on May 28 for talks about military support with leaders from countries including Poland, Czech Republic, Latvia, Denmark and the Netherlands as well as a representative of the U.S. administration. (Bloomberg, 05.28.24)
  • More than three months after Czech President Petr Pavel publicized the effort to procure some 800,000 shells from sources outside the European Union, Tomas Kopecny, the Czech envoy overseeing the initiative, said only five countries, a quarter of those who made commitments, have finalized payments so far. (Bloomberg, 05.30.24)
• Outside Dallas, Texas, in the Pentagon's first new major arms plant built since Russia invaded Ukraine, Turkish workers in orange hard hats are busy unpacking wood crates stenciled with the name Repkon, a defense company based in Istanbul, and assembling computer-controlled robots and lathes. The factory will soon turn out about 30,000 steel shells every month for the 155-millimeter howitzers that have become crucial to Kyiv's war effort. (NYT, 05.30.24)
• Advisor to the Head of the Ukrainian President's Office Mykhaylo Podolyak stated that U.S.-provided military aid has started arriving on the frontline but that it will take "weeks" for the gradual increase in U.S.-provided military aid to reach "critical volumes." (ISW, 05.29.24)
• European Union member states are growing increasingly exasperated by Hungary’s stonewalling of more than €6.5 billion ($7.1 billion) of urgently needed military aid for Ukraine. Budapest’s intransigence is prompting discussions among diplomats about how the EU fund could be shielded from Hungary’s veto when it soon receives another influx of cash from the profits of immobilized Russian assets. (Bloomberg, 05.27.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said Chinese firms must cease supplying components that can be utilized by Russia in weapons used to attack Ukraine or face consequences. “My trip confirms that we need to do more” on sanctions to stop Russia from getting access to key components, “particularly from China,” Adeyemo said in Kyiv. In a speech to German business leaders in Berlin on May 31, Adeyemo is to urge Western companies to stop Russia importing critical components from or via China. According to excerpts shared with the Financial Times, Adeyemo will say the U.S. and Europe “must make the choice stark for China: Chinese firms can either do business in our economies or they can equip Russia’s war machine with dual-use goods. They cannot do both.” (FT, 05.30.24, Bloomberg, 05.29.24)
• U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin discussed Beijing’s indirect support for Russia’s war in Ukraine during his first in-person meeting with his Chinese counterpart. Austin spoke with Chinese Minister of National Defense Dong Jun on May 31 on the margins of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. The two leaders discussed a number of problems including Chinese and North Korean contributions, direct and indirect, to Russia’s war efforts. (Washington Examiner, 05.31.24)
• Russian commodities firms struggling to execute financial transactions with Chinese counterparts have started tapping a new method for settling deals — stablecoins. At least two top metals producers, both of which are unsanctioned, have begun to use Tether Holdings Ltd.’s stablecoin and some other cryptocurrencies to settle some of their cross-border transactions with mostly Chinese clients and suppliers, top executives at the companies said. (Bloomberg, 05.28.24)
• “The percentage of Russian battlefield weaponry with U.S. or allied branded components is alarmingly and unacceptably high,” Daleep Singh, the deputy U.S. national security adviser for international economics, said. “Put your creativity and resources to work, know your customers, know their customers, and know the end users. Ensure that American firms are not unwitting cogs in Russia’s arsenal of autocracy.” (Bloomberg, 05.28.24)
• G-7 finance ministers have backed the idea of issuing a loan to Ukraine, secured by profits on frozen Russian assets, in an effort to secure financing for Kyiv beyond 2024. Ministers’ discussions were based on a U.S. proposal that circulated ahead of the gathering in Stresa, Italy, to issue a loan of about $50 billion to be repaid with profits from around €190 billion Russian central bank assets. The Russian assets are stuck in Belgian central securities depository Euroclear. (FT, 05.25.24)
• The EU is considering levying tariffs on up to €42 billion of Russian imports that have been spared by the sanctions regime imposed by the bloc in response to Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. EU trade ministers on May 30 asked the European Commission to draw up a plan to place duties on products that are exempt from the measures, such as food, nuclear fuel and medicines, with the revenues likely to go to Ukraine. (FT, 05.30.24)  
• The European Union agreed to hike tariffs on imports of Russian grain to curb the Kremlin’s revenues and prevent those shipments from destabilizing the region’s farm sector. The tariffs, which also apply to Belarusian grain, will be in place from July 1, EU trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis said on X. EU ministers also made the decision to tackle illegal Russian exports of stolen Ukraine grain into EU markets, he said. (Bloomberg, 05.30.24)
• Estonia on May 30 passed a law that allows the authorities to transfer frozen Russian assets in the country to Ukraine as compensation for damages caused by Moscow’s full-scale invasion. Estonian President Alar Karis said the confiscation of assets “raises unresolved legal questions,” but assured they would only be used if the owner’s role in Russia’s war against Ukraine is “proven sufficiently.” (MT/AFP, 05.30.24)
• EU member states on May 30 agreed to impose "prohibitive" duties on grain imports from Russia in a bid to limit revenues to Moscow as it continues to wage war on neighboring Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 05.30.24)
• HSBC has transferred ownership of its Russian unit to Expobank for an undisclosed fee, the two lenders said on May 29, ending around two years of negotiations and uncertainty. HSBC's exit from Russia has been on the cards since February, when Putin gave approval for the asset sale to privately owned Expobank to go ahead. (Reuters, 05.29.24)
• Putin on May 29 authorized the state-owned telecoms giant Rostelekom to buy out Finnish mobile operator Nokia's stake in a Russian joint venture. In a decree published May 29, Putin authorized a subsidiary of Rostelecom — which the government controls through various state development corporations and a state-owned bank — to buy out Nokia's 49% stake in a joint venture called "RTC — Network Technologies." (MT/AFP, 05.30.24)
• Western companies including Avon Products, Air Liquide and Reckitt have remained in Russia despite saying they planned to leave after the invasion of Ukraine, as bureaucratic obstacles increase and consumer activity rebounds. Overall, more than 2,100 multinationals have stayed in the Russia since 2022, the Kyiv School of Economics has found, compared with about 1,600 international companies that have either quit the market or scaled back operations. (FT, 05.28.24)
• After Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many Western businessmen stopped working in Russia. And some remained. Including a citizen of Poland and France, 77-year-old Andre Maria Joseph Mankowski, the founder and director of one of the large Russian system integrators, the AMT-group company. After the start of the war, AMT Group continued to receive money for their services. For example, payments came from the manufacturer of complex electronics for the Russian military-industrial complex "State Ryazan Instrument Plant" (GRPZ), from the developer of nuclear weapons "All-Russian Research Institute of Automation" (FSUE VNIIA), as well as from financial organizations of Putin's closest friends - the main Russian insurer SOGAZ and SMP-Bank. (Istories, 05.28.24)
• Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is in talks to acquire the U.S. Midwest assets of Russia’s largest steelmaker Novolipetsk Steel PJSC, according to people familiar with the matter. The assets, which consists of steel-mill facilities in Indiana and Pennsylvania, could be valued at more than $500 million in a potential sale. (Bloomberg, 05.28.24)
• The U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions on two Central African Republic companies on May 30 for their alleged involvement with Russia's Wagner private military company. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said the companies -- Mining Industries SARLU and Logistique Economique Etrangere SARLU -- play a vital role in Wagner security operations and illicit mining endeavors in C.A.R. Mining Industries. (RFE/RL, 05.30.24)
• The Russian division of Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank will stop processing outgoing payments in U.S. dollars starting on June 10, the bank announced May 29, citing “changed requirements of correspondent banks.” Raiffeisen said there would be no restrictions on incoming U.S. dollar payments, adding that starting on June 1, “there will be a 50% discount on the bank’s commission for making outgoing payments from individual clients in U.S. dollars to other banks.” (MT/AFP, 05.29.24)
• After trying to send their money overseas in the immediate aftermath of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, wealthy Russians are now bringing their millions back home, new data shows. The number of high net worth individuals jumped back above pre-war levels last year, after falling in 2022. Some 22,000 wealthy Russians account for almost $150 billion stashed in domestic bank accounts—around a quarter of the national total. (The Bell, 05.28.24)
• Alfa Group founder Mikhail Fridman this week became the first Russian billionaire to demand compensation for assets frozen in Europe. He wants Luxembourg to reimburse him $15.8 billion as part of pre-trial proceedings. If he is refused, Fridman plans to take the case to international arbitration. (The Bell, 05.25.24)
• European Union foreign ministers agreed to impose sanctions on 19 Russian officials and Russia's Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN) over their involvement in the persecution of opposition politicians and activists. (RFE/RL, 05.27.24)
• Sanctions on Russia are having no impact outside the West and attempts to halt the flow of business merely redirect it elsewhere, the chair of Dubai’s main trading hub has said.  “Sanctions slow the economy, never stop it,” said Hamad Buamim, chair of the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre, a leading United Arab Emirates free trade zone that says it hosts more than 24,000 businesses. (FT, 05.29.24)
• Major online retailers in Russia have started selling foreign-made household appliances destined for the Ukrainian market, the business newspaper Kommersant reported May 29, citing local distributors. Among the e-commerce sites offering products intended for Ukrainian consumers are Ozon and Wildberries, which have been found to sell Bosch washing machines and LG Smart TVs that bear Ukrainian stickers and come with Ukrainian-language instructions, according to the newspaper. (MT/AFP, 05.29.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• EU foreign affairs ministers were to discuss this week how to find a face-saving outcome for the Ukraine peace summit on June 15-16 in Switzerland. Biden is planning to skip the gathering for a Hollywood fundraiser, while China and Brazil are planning a rival initiative. (Bloomberg, 05.26.24, Bloomberg, 05.28.24)
• China will not attend a Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland next month because it does not meet its expectations, which include both Russia and Ukraine taking part, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on May 31. (Reuters, 05.31.24)
  • On May 30, Lavrov suggested that China could arrange a peace conference in which Russia and Ukraine take part. (Reuters, 05.31.24)
• Zelenskyy’s frustration with Biden was laid bare this week, when the Ukrainian president said Biden’s plan to attend a Democratic fundraiser rather than Ukraine’s peace summit was “not a strong decision.” One Zelenskyy-appointed senior government official said of the U.S.-Ukraine relationship: “We are farther apart than ever since the war started. It is very, very tense.” A second senior Ukrainian official said Zelenskyy has grown more “emotional and nervous” over what they say the president sees as Washington’s eagerness to start negotiations with Russia. Zelenskyy “thinks they want the war to go away before the [U.S.] election,” the official said. A third senior Ukrainian official used the word “paranoia” to describe the feeling inside the presidential office in recent months. “Zelenskyy has deep anxiety about the military situation but especially about the peace summit in June,” the official said. (FT, 05.30.24)
  • Zelenskyy’s office this week issued a memo to officials and MPs, seen by the FT, that instructs them to criticize both Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping for not attending the summit. “If they don’t [attend], then what is their real interest?” the memo said. (FT, 05.30.24)
  • Zelenskyy said on May 29 that Ukraine continues to counter Russia's attempts to "weaken" a peace summit that is set to take place in Switzerland. "Unfortunately, evil knows how to adapt and is now using all its resources to divide the world and prevent the world from forcing Russia to make peace," Zelenskyy said. (RFE/RL, 05.29.24)
  • Zelenskyy has said he does not trust Putin amid reports that the European Union plans to organize peace talks with Russia. Bloomberg on May 27 reported that the bloc is working on organizing a meeting in Saudi Arabia later this year with Russia's participation. (RFE/RL, 05.27.24)
  • Zelenskyy will visit Saudi Arabia on June 1, DPA reports. A diplomatic source at the Ukrainian embassy in Riyadh told the agency that Zelenskyy plans to enlist support before the peace summit in Switzerland. (RBC.ua, 05.30.24)
  • Zelenskyy is set to travel to Singapore this weekend to attend a regional defense forum, where he will urge Asian leaders to attend a summit in Switzerland to discuss his country’s peace blueprint, according to people familiar with the matter. Zelenskyy is expected to deliver a speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue on June 2. (Bloomberg, 05.31.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• NATO states are able to provide less than 5% of air defense capacities deemed necessary to protect its members in central and eastern Europe against a full-scale attack, according to people familiar with confidential defense plans drawn up last year. (FT, 05.30.24)
• U.S. and allied intelligence officials are tracking an increase in low-level sabotage operations in Europe that they say are part of a Russian campaign to undermine support for Ukraine's war effort. The covert operations have mostly been arsons or attempted arsons targeting a wide range of sites, including a warehouse in England, a paint factory in Poland, homes in Latvia and, most oddly, an Ikea store in Lithuania. But people accused of being Russian operatives have also been arrested on charges of plotting attacks on U.S. military bases. (NYT, 05.27.24)
  • Poland has decided to curb movement of Russian diplomats living on its territories amid rising concern over alleged sabotage operations. (Bloomberg, 05.27.24)
• NATO needs to send a signal that it will contain "Russian imperialism" and every move to aid Ukraine will help it do this, Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said ahead of the meeting of foreign ministers of NATO's 32 members on May 30-31 to hammer out agreements for later when NATO leaders meet in Washington in July, focusing on putting support for Ukraine on a more stable long-term footing. (RFE/RL, 05.29.24)
• Latvia said it wants to establish a “drone army” as part of efforts to boost production of the local defense industry and strengthen military capabilities in the Baltic region. The government will invest some 20 million euros ($22 million) this year to develop the project, Defense Minister Andris Spruds said in a post on X. (Bloomberg, 05.27.24)
• In places where once not even border posts disturbed the landscape, earthmoving equipment is currently carving a trench down the boundary between Baltic NATO and Russian territory. Riga will allocate some 303 million euros over the next five years to the major fortification project. (RFE/RL, 05.29.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• See section on punitive measures above.

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Dmitry Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel on May 31: “Western countries that have allegedly ‘approved the use’ of their extended-range weapons on Russian territory ... must clearly understand the following: 1. All their military equipment and specialists fighting against us will be destroyed both in the territory of ... Ukraine, and on the territory of other countries, if attacks are carried out on Russian territory from there. 2. Russia proceeds from the fact that all long-range weapons used ... by Ukraine are already directly controlled by military personnel of NATO countries. This is not ‘military assistance’ at all, but participation in a war against us. And such actions of theirs may as well become a casus belli. ... ‘Individual assistance’ from NATO countries against Russia, be it by controlling their long-range cruise missiles or sending a contingent of troops to Ukraine, is a serious escalation of the conflict. The former Ukraine and its NATO allies will receive a response of such destructive force that the Alliance itself simply will not be able to resist being drawn into the conflict. And no matter how much retired NATO f....s chatter that Russia will never use non-strategic nuclear weapons against ... Ukraine, and even more so against individual NATO countries, life is much worse than their frivolous reasoning. ... With the use of tactical nuclear weapons ... they can miscalculate. Although this would be a fatal mistake. ... And this, alas, is not intimidation or nuclear bluff. The current military conflict with the West is developing according to the worst possible scenario. There is a constant escalation in the power of applicable NATO weapons. Therefore, today no one can exclude the transition of the conflict to its final stage.” (Medvedev’s Telegram channel, 05.31.24)
• Ukraine made a drone strike this week at a Voronezh-DM UHF early warning radar located in Russia’s Krasnodar region, according to a person within the Ukrainian intelligence community. The long-range system was hit by a drone launched by Ukraine’s military intelligence on May 23, according to the source. On May 27, a Ukrainian drone struck another Russian early warning radar of the Voronezh type in Russia's Orenburg region, more than 1,100 miles from the border with Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 05.25.24, Newsweek, 05.27.24)
  • “The United States is concerned about Ukraine’s recent strikes against Russian ballistic missile early-warning sites,” said a U.S. official. “These sites have not been involved in supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine,” the U.S. official said. “But they are sensitive locations because Russia could perceive that its strategic deterrent capabilities are being targeted, which could undermine Russia’s ability to maintain nuclear deterrence against the United States.” “Russia could think it has a diminished ability to detect early nuclear activity against it, which then could become an issue,” the official said. “It should be obvious to everyone that there’s no intention whatsoever [by the United States] of using nuclear weapons against Russia. But there’s certainly concern about how Russia could perceive its deterrent capabilities being targeted and early-warning systems being attacked.” (WP, 05.29.24)
    • According to CEIP expert James Acton, however, “The Armavir radar ... likely does have a role in the Ukraine war; I'm surprised a U.S. official said otherwise. Specifically, it can track Ukrainian ballistic missiles fired against Russia from a narrow (but not insignificant) slice of southern Ukraine.” (RM, 05.30.24).
  • A Ukrainian official familiar with the matter claimed that Russia has used the radar sites to monitor the Ukrainian military’s activities, particularly Kyiv’s use of aerial weaponry, such as drones and missiles. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security matter, confirmed that Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate, known by its initials as GUR, was responsible for the strikes. (WP, 05.29.24)
    • According to CEIP expert James Acton, however, “contrary to what the Ukrainian official says, this radar cannot track drones. Apart from anything else, they fly too low and are shielded from the radar (which is NOT an over-the-horizon radar) by Earth's curvature.” (RM, 05.30.24).
  • Ukrainian attacks on the two radar systems that form part of Moscow’s nuclear warning system over the past week have been a particular point of Kyiv’s conflict with Washington, which is worried that it may provoke Moscow and further escalate the war. (FT, 05.30.24)
  • The Russian authorities need to sharply strengthen their “policy of deterrence” and conduct a “demonstration nuclear explosion” in order to stop the West’s further involvement in the war in Ukraine, stated Russian foreign policy scholar Dmitry Suslov in an article published in the Profile magazine and in which he cites the attack on the early warning radar. (Meduza, 05.29.24, RM, 05.29.24)

Counterterrorism:

• Putin expressed support on May 28 for delisting the Taliban as a prohibited organization in Russia, indicating that Russia will likely do so soon. Russia’s Foreign Ministry and Justice Ministry have advised Putin that the Taliban can be removed from Russia’s list of terrorist organizations, Zamir Kabulov, the director of the Second Asia Department at the Russian Foreign Ministry, told state news agency TASS. (ISW, 05.28.24, Meduza, 05.27.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• There’s an “increased risk” of cyberattacks from Russian hackers at the Ukraine peace meeting to be held in Switzerland in June, NZZ am Sonntag reported. Russia, which hasn’t been invited to the June 15-16 event in Burgenstock, is likely to seek ways to disrupt the gathering, the Swiss newspaper reported, citing IT experts and people within the Swiss Federal Office of Cybersecurity who it didn’t identify. Separately, Sonntags Zeitung reported that Switzerland has expelled no Russian diplomats since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, during which time Russia has added dozens of headcount in Bern and Geneva. (Bloomberg, 05.26.24)
• OpenAI said it has cut off five covert influence operations in the past three months, including networks in Russia, China, Iran and Israel that accessed the ChatGPT-maker’s artificial intelligence products to try to manipulate public opinion or shape political outcomes while obscuring their true identity. (Bloomberg, 05.30.24)
• Minutes after Slovakia’s Russia-friendly Prime Minister Robert Fico was shot, social media was awash with conspiracy theories. The attacker’s wife was a refugee from Ukraine. He was linked to a high-profile government critic. And Fico’s security guard was plotting against the premier. All those rumors were later rebutted by Slovak authorities. But not before they’d gone viral on Telegram. The messaging app has become a key weapon for pro-Kremlin accounts to spread disinformation aimed at undermining support for Ukraine. More recently, Russian intelligence officers have used it to recruit petty criminals to carry out acts of sabotage across European capitals. (Bloomberg, 05.28.24)
• A three-year hacking campaign targeted Russian, Belarusian and Latvian journalists and activists using spyware made by the Israeli company NSO Group, according to research published on May 30. At least seven people, including a former Belarusian presidential candidate, had their mobile phones targeted with the spyware, known as “Pegasus,” between 2020 and 2023, according to the digital rights groups Access Now and Citizen Lab. (Bloomberg, 05.30.24)
• Russian tech companies Yandex and VKontakte are being grilled by government officials for making their homegrown artificial intelligence chatbots avoid subjects related to the invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 05.28.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Germany is calling for the European Union to do more to curtail the last 20% of Russian energy imports still coming to the bloc’s shores ahead of a meeting of ministers in Brussels this week. Europe’s top economy, along with the Czech Republic, is asking the bloc to set up a high-level working group to identify ways to phase out the remaining Russian gas supplies — including liquefied natural gas — as well as oil and nuclear material still coming to Europe, according to a letter seen by Bloomberg News. (Bloomberg, 05.29.24)
• Berlin has said it will abolish a controversial tax on gas piped through Germany to its neighbors, after countries such as the Czech Republic and Austria warned they could be forced to increase Russian imports. (FT, 05.30.24)
• Russia’s four-week average crude exports fell for a third week, with shipments hitting a two-month low before a virtual meeting of the OPEC+ producer group to be held on June 2. (Bloomberg, 05.28.24)
• Sweden is looking at ways to unilaterally block imports of Russian liquefied natural gas if Hungary stops or succeeds in watering down the European Union’s proposed latest sanctions on Moscow. (Bloomberg, 05.30.24)
• The European Union’s executive arm is examining the feasibility of a proposal by one of its member states to sanction Russia’s Ingosstrakh Insurance Co., one of the main providers of insurance to tankers hauling Russian oil, as part of efforts to choke revenue generating streams that Moscow needs to finance its war against Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 05.29.24)
• Moldova and Ukraine reached an informal agreement to keep natural gas flowing to the pro-Russian enclave of Transnistria after a transit contract with Gazprom PJSC expires at the end of the year. (Bloomberg, 05.30.24)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• In 2016, Russia used an army of trolls to interfere in the U.S. presidential election. This year, an American given asylum in Moscow may be accomplishing much the same thing all by himself. A dozen years ago, John Mark Dougan, a former deputy sheriff in Palm Beach County, Fla., sent voters an email posing as a county commissioner, urging them to oppose the re-election of the county’s sheriff. He later masqueraded online as a Russian tech worker with a pseudonym, BadVolf, to leak confidential information in violation of state law, fooling officials in Florida who thought they were dealing with a foreigner. (NYT, 05.29.24)
• A court in Russia on May 31 extended the pretrial detention of Alsu Kurmasheva, a Prague-based journalist with RFE/RL who holds dual U.S. and Russian citizenships, until Aug. 5. (RFE/RL, 05.31.24)
• U.S. Army Staff Sergeant Gordon Black, who was arrested in the Far East city of Vladivostok in early May on suspicion of theft, has been additionally charged with threatening to kill his partner, a Russian woman, according to Russian media. (RFE/RL, 05.27.24)
• A U.S. Army special operations soldier based at Fort Liberty, N.C., fatally shot a Chechen man outside his North Carolina home earlier this month, service and law enforcement officials said. The soldier shot 35-year-old Ramzan Daraev at about 8:15 p.m. on May 3 after reporting a trespasser on the property in Carthage, N.C., according to the Moore County Sheriff’s Department. Sheriff’s deputies were told Daraev was a subcontractor for a local utility company and was working on that job when he was confronted and killed. (Stars and Stripes, 05.28.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Two-thirds of the world's population lives in countries where the birthrate has fallen below replacement level. Russia's fertility rate is 1.5., the E.U.'s fertility rate stands at 1.46, India, home to 1.4 billion, dropped below 2.1 for the first time in 2020. There are exceptions to the rule of global population decline. They are just concentrated in one region. Population projections suggest that 8 in 10 people will live in Africa and Asia by 2100. (WP, 05.30.24)
• Russia launched plans to sharply raise taxes on high earners and companies to fill state coffers and fund what it sees as a long war in Ukraine. A government commission on May 29 approved a Finance Ministry plan to introduce a new progressive income tax as well as raise corporate tax rates. The proposed amendments, which would come into force from next year, are expected to bring an additional 2.6 trillion rubles, or around $29 billion. (WSJ, 05.29.24)
• Putin appointed Alexey Dyumin to a top Russian state post, prompting speculation that an official who was once his personal bodyguard is being groomed as a potential successor. Putin named 51-year-old Dyumin as secretary of the State Council, according to a Kremlin statement published May 29. The body responsible for developing “strategic goals and tasks of domestic and foreign policy” draws together Kremlin and government officials with lawmakers and regional leaders. (Bloomberg, 05.29.24)
• Dmitry Azarov announced May 31 that he was stepping down as governor of southern Russia’s Samara region. The announcement comes a day after Natalia Komarova stepped down as governor of western Siberia’s Khanty-Mansi autonomous district after holding that post for 14 years. President Vladimir Putin named Tyumen mayor Ruslan Kukharuk as her replacement later on May 30. (MT, 05.31.24)
• Ramzan Kadyrov nominated the former speaker of the parliament of the republic, one of his closest associates, Magomed Daudov, to the post of chairman of the government of Chechnya. Kadyrov announced this in his telegram channel. (Istories, 05.25.24)
• The Levada Center’s May survey shows growing approval for the activities of key state institutions and the country's situation. The composition of politicians who enjoy the greatest trust among Russians has not changed significantly over the past month; however, it now includes the recently appointed Minister of Defense, A. Belousov. The majority of Russians (71%) believe that things in the country are going in the right direction. While the same as the previous month's proportion, it is a slight decrease from the historical high of 75% in February and 73% in March. The proportion of respondents who believe that the country is moving in the wrong direction is the same as it was in April at 17%. 13% had difficulty answering the question. Support for Vladimir Putin rose from 85% to 87% over the past month, while his critics decreased from 12% to 11%. (Levada, 05.30.24)
• The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) on May 28 ordered Russia to pay $56,500 in damages to the jailed mother of a prominent critic of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. Zarema Musaeva was sentenced last year to five years in a prison colony on charges of fraud and assaulting police. (MT/AFP, 05.28.24)
• Rosfinmonitoring, Russia's agency for countering money laundering and terrorism financing, said on May 29 it had added noted actor Aleksei Panin to the register of terrorists and extremists. No reason was given for adding Panin, who left Russia in 2020 and now lives in the United States. (RFE/RL, 05.29.24)
• Popular travel blogger Ilya Varlamov has been charged with “discrediting” the Russian armed forces, the independent news website Mediazona reported May 30, citing the Moscow court system’s open database of cases. Varlamov, who runs a YouTube channel with over 5  million subscribers, has publicly criticized Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 05.30.24)
• The Supreme Court in Russia's Tatarstan region on May 28 handed a suspended two-year prison sentence to anti-war activist Zulfia Sitdikova, who was convicted of rehabilitating Nazism and discrediting Russia's military. (RFE/RL, 05.28.24)
• A court in the Siberian city of Tomsk has rejected an appeal filed by Ksenia Fadeyeva, a former local lawmaker and the ex-head of late opposition politician Alexei Navalny's regional team, over a nine-year prison term she was handed in December for extremism, a charge she and her supporters reject. (RFE/RL, 05.28.24)
• A Russian court has extended the pre-trial detention of two lawyers who represented the late Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, the independent news website Mediazona reported May 28. Vadim Kobzev, Alexei Lipster, and Igor Sergunin were arrested last October on accusations of participating in “extremist” activities for passing Navalny’s letters on to his associates. (MT/AFP, 05.28.24)
• A Moscow court on May 29 ruled to uphold the four-year prison sentence for Russian nationalist and ex-rebel commander Igor Girkin. Girkin, a convicted war criminal in the West better known by his pseudonym Igor Strelkov, was arrested last summer after criticizing Russian President Vladimir Putin for his handling of the war against Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 05.29.24)
• A Moscow court on May 29 rejected an appeal by imprisoned dissident Oleg Orlov to be removed from the Russian Justice Ministry's "foreign agent" list. Orlov, 71, who is serving a two-and-a-half-year prison term for criticizing the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, was designated a "foreign agent" ahead of his sentencing in February. (MT/AFP, 05.29.24)
• Ukrainian journalist Viktoria Roshchyna, who went missing in the Russia-occupied part of Ukraine's southeastern Zaporizhzhia region last August, has turned up in Russian custody. (RFE/RL, 05.28.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• Putin urged the heads of manufacturers of military hardware to ramp up output and make Russia’s war economy more effective. “It is important to build an effective economy of the armed forces,” Putin said Saturday at Tactical Missiles Corp. JSC, a key producer of weapons, including missiles. “We must always be one step ahead, be ahead of the enemy. Then victory will be guaranteed.” (Bloomberg, 05.25.24)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• A court in Russia's Siberian region of Kemerovo on May 28 sentenced the former chief engineer at a coal mine over an explosion in 2021 that killed 51 people. Anatoly Lobanov was convicted of giving false information regarding the mine's safety. (RFE/RL, 05.28.24)
• Russian law enforcement authorities have launched a criminal investigation into a mass street brawl and shootout in the city of Chelyabinsk over the weekend that reportedly involved Ukraine war veterans. (MT/AFP, 05.27.24)
• A Russian military court has rejected a request to transfer Major General Ivan Popov to house arrest and ruled to keep him in pre-trial detention for two months, the independent news website Mediazona reported May 27. Popov, whose May 17 arrest was first reported last week, is accused of misappropriating more than 130  million rubles ($1.5  million) worth of metal purchased as “humanitarian aid” by Russian occupying authorities in southern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region. (MT/AFP, 05.27.24)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Sudan’s army said it’s poised to get weapons from Russia in return for letting Moscow establish a military fueling station on the Red Sea coast, a blow for the U.S. as its opponents gain influence in the African country torn apart by civil war. A military delegation will travel to Russia within a few days to conclude the deal, assistant commander-in-chief Yasser Al-Atta told the Gulf-based Al-Hadath TV channel on Saturday. (Bloomberg, 05.26.24)
• Russia will not be invited to events marking the 80th anniversary of the Second World War's D-Day landings next week given its war of aggression against Ukraine, the French presidency said on May 30. (Reuters, 05.30.24)
• A court in Düsseldorf sentenced a former Bundeswehr officer to three and a half years in prison on charges of espionage for Russia. Spiegel reports this. 54-year-old Thomas H. was found guilty of undercover activity and violating official secrets. The indictment states that he, on his own initiative, passed on official information to the Russian intelligence services. (Media Zona, 05.27.24)
• Belgian and French authorities have raided the offices of a European parliament staffer on suspicion of working for Russia, the latest in a series of scandals involving far-right lawmakers and their alleged ties to foreign governments. Police on May 29 raided the apartment and parliamentary offices in Brussels and Strasbourg of Guillaume Pradoura, an assistant for a Dutch far-right MEP. Pradoura, a French national, is being investigated in connection with an alleged Russian influence operation run via the Prague-based Voice of Europe website, which has been banned from broadcasting in the EU. (FT, 05.29.24)
• In France, 10 ethnic Chechens suspected of radicalization were detained. This was reported by public television channel France 3. According to media reports, one of the detainees is connected with the murder of teacher Samuel Paty. However, as L’Union reports, the detention is not related to terrorism charges, but to suspicions of organizing illegal labor, trafficking in people and weapons. (Korrespondent.net, 05.29.24)
• Of the EU countries, Italy provided the largest number of visas to Russian citizens last year—134 thousand entry permits. (Korrespondent.net, 05.29.24)

Ukraine:

• Former Deputy Head of Ukraine’s State Customs Service Ruslan Cherkassky, together with Vitaly Kiro, who was allegedly involved in the production of cigarettes with counterfeit excise stamps, purchased apartments and offices in Dubai for approximately $25  million. (Korrespondent.net, 05.29.24)
• Odessa ex-military commissar will be tried for illegal enrichment of 142 million Evgeniy Borisov. The colonel, holding the position of head of the Odessa OTCC and joint venture, acquired assets worth more than UAH 142 million from February 2022 to April 2023. (Korrespondent.net, 05.29.24)
• A law enforcement officer from the Chernivtsi region, who planned to make money on draft dodgers trying to illegally leave the country, was informed that he is suspected of a crime. The State Bureau of Investigation reported this on May 29. (Korrespondent.net, 05.29.24)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin grossly misrepresented the Ukrainian Constitution and Ukrainian domestic law on May 28 in order to further promote the Kremlin information operation, claiming that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is no longer the legitimate president of Ukraine. (ISW, 05.28.24)
• Law enforcement officers alleged that a deputy chairman of the Rivne regional council has taken half a million hryvnia in bribes for “help” with land and property issues. NABU does not name the official, but according to Ukrainska Pravda sources, the suspect’s name is Sergei Svystalyuk. (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.31.24)
• Amid a new mobilization law in Ukraine, men aged 18-60 are seeking increasingly inventive methods to flee the country and escape the war -- border guards even caught one man who tried to dress as a woman and use his sister's passport, while at least 30 bodies have been recovered as men attempted to swim across a river into Romania. (RFE/RL, 05.27.24)
• A bail of 10 million hryvnias has been posted for Andriy Smyrnov, the former Deputy Head of the President's Office, who is suspected of illegal enrichment. (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.29.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Belarus suspended its participation in the Cold War-era Conventional Armed Forces (CFE) in Europe Treaty on May 28. The Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) claimed that Belarus would resume its implementation of the CFE Treaty if NATO member countries also implement the CFE Treaty (ISW, 05.29.24)
• Georgian lawmakers overrode a presidential veto of a controversial “foreign agent” law on May 28, ignoring massive protests against what the U.S. and the EU have condemned as a “Kremlin-inspired” measure. (Bloomberg, 05.28.24)
• Poland will fortify its border with Russia’s ally Belarus as early as next week in response to what Warsaw says is a “ruthless hybrid war” waged by Moscow to destabilize its Western neighbors. (FT, 05.29.24)
• An agreement between Uzbekistan and Russia will see a six-unit small modular reactor nuclear power plant built in the Jizzakh region of Uzbekistan, with construction work due to begin as early as this summer. (WNN, 05.27.24)
• Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda was elected to a second term on Sunday as voters in the Baltic nation overwhelmingly backed continuity in foreign policy and a hard line on the threat of Russian aggression. (Bloomberg, 05.27.24)
• Moldova's parliament on May 30 denounced Russia's invasion of Ukraine as "genocide" in connection with Moscow's treatment of children in occupied areas, but the assembly's Moscow-friendly opposition parties refused to take part in the vote. (RFE/RL, 05.30.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by www.mil.gov.ua shared under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.