This Week's Highlights 

• IAEA estimates Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which has been seized by Russian troops, contains 30,000 kilograms of plutonium and 40,000 kilograms of enriched uranium, and the agency would like to inspect it, according to the Wall Street Journal.
• Putin told Italy’s Draghi he is ready to make a "significant contribution" to averting a looming food crisis, which the West partially blames on Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian ports, if the West lifts sanctions imposed on Russia. Egypt’s finance minister has warned that millions could die because of the food price crisis triggered by the Ukraine war.
• Russians forces have been advancing on the key twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk on both banks of the Siverskiy Donets River in the Luhansk region, surrounding two-thirds of Severodonetsk. Russian forces have also captured the railway hub town of Lyman in the Donetsk region, according to the New York Times. At the moment, about 5% of the territory of the Luhansk region and a little more than 40% of the Donetsk region remain under the control of Ukraine, according to Meduza.
• Sources close to the Kremlin and a source in the Russian presidential administration told Meduza that, given the latest advances of Russian troops in the Donbas, Kremlin officials are hopeful again that Moscow could “bring the war in Ukraine to victory” this fall. A minimal victory would constitute establishing control over the entire territories of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, according to Meduza’s sources.
• Some 150 military units from across all branches of Russia’s Armed Forces have been deployed in the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, according to Proekt. All in all, Russian units fighting in Ukraine have lost 1,000 tanks, 350 artillery pieces, three dozen fighter-bomber aircraft and more than 50 helicopters, according to Pentagon estimates.

• Russia will start paying its foreign debt in rubles after the United States ended an exemption allowing Moscow to make the payments in dollars held in Russia. Meanwhile, Western allies are considering whether to allow Russian oligarchs to buy their way out of sanctions and using the money to rebuild Ukraine, per Canada’s proposal, according to the AP.
• Chinese and Russian nuclear capable bombers flew over the Sea of Japan as Biden attended a QUAD summit in Tokyo. The Biden administration’s China policy aims to lead the countries now jointly opposing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine into a broader coalition to counter what Washington sees as a more serious threat posed by Beijing, according to Blinken.
• The Russian Finance Ministry said it would cut the share of foreign currency earnings exporters were required to convert to rubles from 80% to 50%, while Russia’s Central Bank cut its key interest rate from 14% to 11% as authorities reined in the recently surging ruble.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• U.S. President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan announced the successful removal of highly enriched uranium from three Japanese sites to the U.S. (NNSA , 05.23.22)
• Ukraine’s nuclear regulatory agency says an inspection mission from the IAEA should not take place until the six-reactor Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is no longer under Russian control. “We hope to go there to be able to prevent...a problem, or we end up finding that there are a few hundred kilograms of nuclear weapon-grade material going missing. This is what keeps us awake at night at the moment,” IAEA’s Rafael Grossi said May 25. Grossi said the site contains 30,000 kilograms of plutonium and 40,000 kilograms of enriched uranium. (WNN, 05.27.22, WSJ, 05.25.22)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Russia and China have vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution which proposed tougher sanctions on North Korea after the country's latest ballistic missile tests. The vote marked the first serious division among the five veto-wielding permanent members on a North Korea sanctions resolution since 2006. (DW, 05.27.22, AP, 05.27.22)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• The U.S. special envoy for Iran says that the prospects of reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal are "tenuous" at best, telling a Senate committee that it is more likely than not that talks will fail. (RFE/RL, 05.25.22)
• The Iranian and Russian sides are able to neutralize the influence of sanctions through the development of bilateral cooperation, Iranian Oil Minister Javad Ouji said following a meeting with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak in Tehran. Russia's Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, met in Dushanbe on May 26 to discuss the two countries' further security cooperation, trade and economic relations. (Interfax, 05.26.22, TASS, 05.26.22)
  • Cormac McGarry, a maritime analyst with the global risk consultancy Control Risks, said: "History tells us that [Russia] will likely bend and find ways around those sanctions and learn to live with them," he said. "Iran is a perfect example of that." (WP, 05.26.22)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• The population of Warsaw and its environs has gone up by 15% with the influx of 300,000 Ukrainian refugees, Warsaw’s mayor, Rafal Trzaskowski, has said. (NPR, 05.20.22) 
• Moscow will consider exchanging prisoners from Ukraine's Azov battalion for Viktor Medvedchuk, a wealthy Ukrainian businessman close to Putin, a Russian negotiator said May 21. "We are going to study the possibility," said Leonid Slutsky, a senior member of Russia's negotiating team on Ukraine. (AFP, 05.21.22)
• "Russia is not just ideologically trying to fight against Ukraine, Russia is also destroying our export infrastructure [for grain]," Mykhaylo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said. (RFE/RL, 05.21.22)
• Egypt’s finance minister has warned that “millions” could die because of the food price crisis triggered by the Ukraine war, echoing warnings made by the U.N. and G-7 countries as worries about a global wheat shortage intensify. (FT, 05.22.22)
• When the soldiers of Russia's 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade arrived in Bucha in mid-March, they brought a new level of death and terror to the city. Over the next 18 days, in just one corner of this Kyiv suburb where the brigade took control, 12 people were killed, including all of the inhabitants of six houses where the soldiers set up camp. (NYT, 05.23.22)
• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says Russia is weaponizing food supplies as prices of grain, cooking oil and other food commodities soar following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, one of the world's largest wheat producers. (RFE/RL, 05.24.22)
• Hosting Ukrainian refugees could cost countries more than $30 billion in the first year alone, according to the Center for Global Development. (The Conversation, 05.24.22) 
• Eight Russian soldiers and mercenaries were charged on May 24 with the murder of the mayor of a small Kyiv suburb and her family. The mayor, Olha Sukhenko, was found in a grave in her village, Motyzhyn on April 2, after Russians withdrew from their positions around the capital. Her husband and son were buried with her. (NYT, 05.25.22)
• Newly declassified U.S. intelligence shows that a Russian naval blockade has halted maritime trade at Ukrainian ports, in what a U.S. official described as ““entrapping Ukrainian agricultural exports and jeopardizing global food supplies.” (WP, 05.25.22)
• Rodion Miroshnik, the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic’s ambassador to Russia, has claimed there are 8,000 Ukrainian prisoners of war in the parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions that are under the control of Russian forces. (MT/AFP, 05.26.22)
• Two Russian soldiers, Alexander Bobikin and Alexander Ivanov, pleaded guilty on May 26 to firing on eastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv region in the second war crimes trial to take place in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion began. (NYT, 05.26.22)
• Moscow is ready to make a "significant contribution" to averting a looming food crisis if the West lifts sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine, Putin said in a call with Italy's Prime Minister Mario Draghi. The Kremlin said Putin also spoke about the "steps taken to ensure the safety of navigation, including the daily opening of humanitarian corridors for the exit of civilian ships from the ports of the Azov and the Black Sea." (MT/AFP, 05.26.22)
  • Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said Moscow could allow vessels carrying food to leave Ukraine's Black Sea ports in return for the lifting of some sanctions imposed on Russia. (RFE/RL, 05.25.22)
  • The Russian Defense Ministry has proposed a corridor to allow foreign ships to leave Black Sea ports and another to allow vessels to leave Mariupol on the Sea of Azov. (RFE/RL, 05.27.22)
• A resident of a village near the border with Ukraine has died after a “full day” of shelling, the governor of western Russia’s Belgorod region said May 27. The unidentified woman is the third reported civilian casualty on Russian territory. (MT/AFP, 05.27.22)
• The Ukrainian city of Kharkiv was hit by renewed shelling on May 26. Ukrainian military officials said nine people were killed, including a 9-year-old child, and 19 were wounded. Zelensky on May 26 accused Moscow of carrying out a "genocide" in the east. More than 4,030 civilians have been killed since Russia invaded Ukraine, according to the U.N.  (RFE/RL, 05.27.22, RFE/RL, 05.27.22, NYT, 05.27.22)
• Biden called out Russia's "brutal" war in Ukraine during a commencement address on May 27. “Not only is he trying to take over Ukraine, he is really trying to wipe out the culture and identity of the Ukrainian people—attacking schools, nurseries, hospitals, museums, with no other purpose than to eliminate a culture," Biden said, of Putin. (Military.com, 05.27.22)
• Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer says he and Putin discussed a possible prisoner swap and blocked shipments of Ukrainian grain during a phone call on May 27. (RFE/RL, 05.27.22)

Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Biden on May 21 signed a $40 billion package of new military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. It includes
  • $8.8 billion for a fund to shore up the economies of Ukraine and other countries affected by the war.
  • $4.3 billion to provide urgent support, health services and food assistance to Ukrainian refugees.
  • $6 billion for support, weapons and training for Ukraine’s military and national security forces
  • $4 billion in grants and loans for military supplies.
  • $11 billion for transfer American weapons and other military supplies
  • $5.1 billion for U.S. military deployments and intelligence
  •  $9 billion in new spending to replace the military equipment sent to Ukraine from American stockpiles. (WSJ, 05.21.22, NYT, 05.21.22)

• A senior U.S. defense official told reporters on May 26 that Russia had about 106 battalion tactical groups fighting in Ukraine, the same number as earlier in the week. “They did push some units back into the Donbas that were not at 100 %,” the official said. (FP, 05.21.22)
• U.S. military and diplomatic officials are weighing plans to send special forces troops to Kyiv to guard the newly reopened embassy there. (WSJ, 05.22.22)
• Twenty countries have pledged new military aid for Ukraine in its battle against Russian military forces, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced on May 23 following the second Ukraine Contact Group meeting. (RFE/RL, 05.23.22)
• Russian Maj. Gen. Kanamat Botashev was killed in the skies over Ukraine. The 63-year-old retired general had been flying a Su-25 fighter jet over the Luhansk region when the aircraft was targeted by a Stinger shoulder-fired missile system. (MT/AFP, 05.24.22)
• "We will continue the special military operation until all the objectives have been achieved, regardless of the massive Western aid to the Kyiv regime and the sanctions against Russia," Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told regional counterparts from the Russia-led CSTO. (MT/AFP, 05.24.22)
• Patrushev said that Moscow's offensive would last as long as necessary. "We are not rushing to meet deadlines," Patrushev told Argumenty i Fakty. (MT/AFP, 05.24.22)
• Some 150 military units from across all branches of Russia’s Armed Forces have been deployed in the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, investigative outlet Proekt reported. Those deployed include 11 infantry and one tank division from Russia’s Ground Forces; all units from within its Airborne Forces, including paratroopers; Navy marines and fighter, assault and bomber regiments from its Aerospace Forces. Six reconnaissance brigades are also on the ground. Nearly two dozen of the Russian commanding officers currently fighting in Ukraine were born or raised there, according to Proekt. (Meduza, 05.23.22, MT/AFP, 05.24.22)
• At least two neo-Nazi groups are fighting for Russian forces in Ukraine, throwing into question Moscow’s claims of “denazifying” its neighbor, Der Spiegel reported May 22, citing a confidential intelligence report. (MT/AFP, 05.23.22)
• Zelensky has said 50 to 100 of Ukraine’s soldiers may be dying every day. In general, about three times more fighters are wounded than are killed in battle, so Ukraine could be losing about 1,000 soldiers every three days. (FT, 05.23.22)
  • Stuck in their trenches in Druzhkivka, a company of Ukrainian volunteers lived off a potato. After three months of war, Serhi Lapko’s company of 120 men is down to 54 because of deaths, injuries and desertions. (WP, 05.27.22)
• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told attendees at the World Economic Forum in Davos his country "badly" needs multiple-launch rocket systems to match Russian firepower in the battle for Donbas. (MT/AFP, 05.26.22) 
• Russia has misdeployed its elite airborne forces (VDV)  in Ukraine, leading to “significant losses” among that and other elite forces, the U.K.’s defense ministry has said. The ministry said the force had been employed on missions “better suited to heavier armored infantry” and had sustained heavy casualties during the campaign. It participated in the recent “failed and costly” crossing of the Siverskyi Donets River. At least 400 Russian soldiers died, mostly from artillery attacks during that failed crossing on May 8. (NYT, 05.26.22, FT, 05.26.22)
• One of the mistakes of the Russian army was the expectation that it would “be greeted with flowers” in Ukraine, according to Colonel General and ex-commander of the Airborne Forces Vladimir Shamanov. According to Shamanov, the "demilitarization" of Ukraine in parallel with the "denazification" could take five to ten years. (RBC, 05.26.22)
• Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine have sent home at least 58 metric tons of looted goods since the start of the invasion in late February, according Mediazona. On April 29, an unidentified Russian officer allegedly shipped an Orlan-10 military drone, likely stolen from his own army. (MT/AFP, 05.26.22)
• The Biden administration's secret planning began in April 2021 when Russia massed about 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border. The buildup turned out to be a feint, but Blinken and other officials discussed U.S. intelligence about Russia's actions with leaders of Britain, France and Germany at a NATO meeting in Brussels that month. Their message was, "We need to get ourselves prepared," a senior State Department official said. (WP, 05.27.22)
• The war, entering its fourth month, has been a costly endeavor for the Russians. They've lost about 1,000 tanks, 350 artillery pieces, three dozen fighter-bomber aircraft and more than 50 helicopters, according to Pentagon estimates. More than 80% of Russia's battalion tactical groups have been committed to the war effort, a U.S. defense  official said. A British intelligence report noted that in recent days, Russia appeared to have moved 50-year-old T-62 tanks from deep storage into the theater of operations in the Donbas. (RFE/RL, 05.27.22, WP, 05.27.22)
• The U.S. administration is preparing to send advanced, long-range rocket systems to Ukraine, CNN reported, quoting multiple U.S. officials. The officials said the White House was inclined to send the systems as part of a larger package of military and security assistance that could be announced as early as next week. (RFE/RL, 05.27.22)
  • Christopher Cavoli, the American general slated to become NATO's next supreme allied commander, acknowledged that the influx of Western arms flows into Ukraine poses the risk of weapons smuggling by or to illicit groups who could in turn use them to undermine U.S. interests elsewhere. (WP, 05.27.22)
• Russia will need huge financial resources to fund its military operation in Ukraine, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on May 27. Siluanov said Russia had earmarked 8 trillion rubles ($123 billion) of stimulus to support the economy in the current circumstances. (Reuters, 05.27.22)
• Russians have been advancing on the key twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk on both banks of the Siverskiy Donets River in the Luhansk region. They have surrounded two-thirds of Severodonetsk, the governor of the Luhansk region said. A U.S. defense official confirmed that the northeastern part of Severodonetsk appears to have been seized by Russian forces. Collectively, this official said, the strategy amounts to "an encirclement effort" meant to cut off Ukrainian forces. Russian forces have also captured the center of the railway hub town of Lyman in the Donetsk region. At the moment, about 5% of the territory of the Luhansk region and a little more than 40% of the Donetsk region remain under the control of Ukraine. (Meduza, 05.28.22, NYT, 05.27.22, WP, 05.27.22. RFE/RL, 05.26.22)
  • Oleksiy Arestovich, advisor to the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, said: “If you look at Seversk, then here it is, a small ‘cauldron’ [Russian-language term for encirclement] that they are trying to create along the railway. ... Once they do that Severodonetsk and Lysychansk will be surrounded. This is the main task they are currently solving. The task is to create a ‘new Mariupol.’” The fall of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk would leave the whole of Luhansk Province under Russian control.  (Meduza, 05.26.22, RFE/RL, 05.26.22) 
  • Kuleba said on May 26 that the military situation in eastern Ukraine was even worse than people say it is. (RFE/RL, 05.27.22)
  • Two sources close to the Kremlin and one interlocutor directly in the presidential administration told Meduza that, given the latest advances of Russian troops in the Donbas, the internal political bloc of the Russian presidential administration is hopeful again that Moscow could “bring the war in Ukraine to victory” this fall. A minimal victory would constitute establishing control over the entire territories of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, according to Meduza’s sources. (Meduza, 05.28.22)

Punitive measures related to Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Russia's Gazprom has halted natural-gas exports to neighboring Finland. (RFE/RL, 05.21.22)
• Russia has published a list of 963 government officials and leading Americans who are banned from entering the country in retaliation for similar moves by Washington since the offensive in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 05.21.22)
• South Africa’s Naspers internet group is selling Russia’s biggest online classifieds business Avito, which Ukrainian government officials allege hosted ads for Russian military recruitment and goods looted from Ukraine. (FT, 05.21.22)
• Aeroflot will soon face parts shortages and may start disassembling some of its planes for spare parts, Bloomberg said May 22, citing expert estimates. The low-cost airline Pobeda, part of the state-run Aeroflot group, has already reduced its fleet from 41 to 25 planes, using its grounded aircraft for "cannibalized" parts. Ural Airlines, which has over 50 Airbus planes, has projected that it can safely fly them for only a few months before it will need to start "cannibalizing" from other aircraft. (WP, 05.26.22, TASS, 05.22.22)
• Russia says it is sanctioning 154 members of the House of Lords, the upper house of the British Parliament, in retaliation for similar steps taken against Moscow's foreign envoys and lawmakers. (RFE/RL, 05.24.22)
• Rosneft has confirmed that Austria's former foreign minister, Karin Kneissl, has left the company's board of directors. (RFE/RL, 05.23.22)
• Deloitte’s former Russian business, which employs more than 2,000 people across eight cities, will operate independently under the brand name Business Solutions and Technologies. (MT/AFP, 05.24.22)
• Starbucks is leaving the Russian market and closing all of its 130 locations there, the company announced May 23. (MT/AFP, 05.23.22)
• In March-April 2022, the share of managers who, when leaving Russia, decided not to buy return air tickets when flying out of Russia, increased sharply. In March, the share of one-way tickets reached 70%, in April, 47%. In 2019, such tickets accounted for about a third of tickets bought by managers. (RBC, 05.23.22)
• Russia’s biggest shipping group Sovcomflot and its western lenders have sold a sixth of its fleet as part of plans to repay debts and eventually return to international markets once sanctions are lifted. Sales of at least 20 vessels have been completed. (FT, 05.22.22)
• Gazprom Energy is examining a rebrand as Britain’s biggest gas supplier to business seeks to distance itself from its Russian owners after the invasion of Ukraine. (FT, 05.23.22)
• Rosneft, led by a close ally of Putin, has seen the largest drop in production among Russian oil companies since the invasion of Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 05.24.22) 
• Nike and Marks & Spencer are quitting the Russian market over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 05.25.22)
• The British government has granted a license allowing the $5.33 billion sale of the Chelsea soccer club by Roman Abramovich to a U.S. investment group. (RFE/RL, 05.25.22)
• Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder will not accept a nomination to the board of Russian energy company Gazprom. (RFE/RL, 05.25.22)
• Russia said it will start paying its foreign debt in rubles after the United States ended an exemption allowing Moscow to make the payments in dollars held in Russia. The U.S. Treasury announced May 24 it was closing the escape clause to the drastic financial sanctions imposed on Moscow after it sent troops to Ukraine, pushing Russia closer to default. (MT/AFP, 05.25.22)
• Western sanctions and the exit of international businesses over the war in Ukraine have caused a fall in Russia’s imports to levels not seen since the early 2000s. Russia imported between $5 billion and $10 billion worth of goods last month, according to Bank Otkritie’s research data. Russia’s Central Bank last reported similar figures for monthly imports in 2001-03. (MT/AFP, 05.25.22)
• More than 900 companies have curtailed operations in Russia since the invasion. (MT/AFP, 05.25.22)
• Aiming to crack down on Russian oligarchs who have held on to their yachts and luxury villas in Europe despite facing sanctions, the EU proposed to make evading sanctions a criminal offense and to strengthen legal measures to confiscate assets. (NYT, 05.25.22)
• Shell said May 25 that it has completed the disposal of its downstream business in Russia to Lukoil. (Marketwatch, 05.25.22)
• Russian bailiffs have reportedly seized more than 7.7 billion rubles ($123.2 million) from Alphabet's Google. The decision to fine Google was made by a Moscow court in December for what the court said was the repeated failure to delete content. (RFE/RL, 05.26.22)
• Google has disconnected its services from Russian servers designed to boost internet speeds. (MT/AFP, 05.26.22)
• Russia's Foreign Ministry has warned it will expel a U.S. journalist or media outlet if the YouTube streaming platform blocks any more of its press briefings. (RFE/RL, 05.26.22)
• Putin said that western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine will fail to isolate Russia from the global economy. In a video address to the Eurasian Economic Union on May 26, Putin said: “We are not going to cut ourselves off. They are trying to squeeze us out. But in the contemporary world it is simply unrealistic, impossible. If we don’t separate ourselves with some sort of a wall, no one will be able to isolate such a country as Russia.” (FT, 05.26.22)
• Western allies are considering whether to allow Russian oligarchs to buy their way out of sanctions and using the money to rebuild Ukraine. Canadian Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland proposed the idea at a G-7 finance ministers’ meeting in Germany last week.  (AP, 05.26.22)

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• Henry Kissinger told Davos-2022 with regard to the Russian-Ukrainian war: “In my view, movement towards negotiations and negotiations on peace need to begin in the next two months so that the outcome of the war should be outlined. Ideally, the dividing line should return the status quo ante.” (RM, 05.23.22)
  • Zelensky blasted recent suggestions that a negotiated peace could include territorial concessions. He took specific aim at Kissinger and the New York Times for suggesting territorial sacrifices might be necessary to end the conflict. (MT/AFP, 05.26.22)
  • Ukraine’s presidential chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, has said the country will not agree to any ceasefire deal that would involve handing over territory to Russia. (The Guardian, 05.22.22) 
• Italian PM Mario Draghi had a phone call with Putin on May 26. Draghi told a news conference that during the call he felt not even a glimmer of hope for peace. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on May 26 dismissed a plan for peace in Ukraine proposed by Italy. Lavrov said the plan envisages annexed Crimea and regions controlled by pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine "will be part of Ukraine with broad autonomy." (MT/AFP, 05.26.22, RFE/RL, 05.27.22)
• In an address on May 27, Zelensky said Ukraine was not longing to talk to Putin, but that it has to face the reality that this will likely be necessary to end the war. In response, the Kremlin said on May 27 that it was unclear what Kyiv wanted. (RFE/RL, 05.27.22)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss says Moldova should be "equipped to NATO standard" to protect itself against potential Russian aggression. (RFE/RL, 05.21.22)
• Trust in democracies is rising in response to the war in Ukraine, Axios' Sara Fischer writes from an Edelman Trust Barometer released May 23 as the Davos economic forum opens. Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, trust in developed democracies was decreasing. (Axios, 05.23.22) 
• A poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology shows that 39% of Ukrainians believe that joining NATO would guarantee the nation's security, while 42% believe that in the current environment settling for security guarantees may be acceptable. (RFE/RL, 05.24.22)
• The Moscow-appointed leaders of southern Ukraine’s Kherson region will “ask” for a Russian military. Putin has signed a decree allowing residents of two Ukrainian regions, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, parts of which have been occupied by Russian forces, to obtain Russian citizenship. The two regions have switched to Russian area codes, Russian state-owned media reported May 27. (MT/AFP, 05.27.22, MT/AFP, 05.24.22, RFE/RL, 05.25.22)
• With Finland's accession to NATO, the questions regarding the status of the Åland Islands and the Saimaa Canal will arise, according to Russia’s Permanent Representative to the EU. (Rosbalt.ru, 05.23.22)
• “Our goal is crystal clear,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told a packed hall in Davos. “We cannot allow Putin to win his war.” (NYT, 05.26.22)
• Henry Kissinger told Davos-2022 with regard to the Russian-Ukrainian war: “Russia has been, for 400 years, an essential part of Europe, and European policy over that period of time has been affected, fundamentally, by its European assessment of the role of Russia. Sometimes in an observing way, but on a number of occasions as the guarantor, or the instrument, by which the European balance could be re-established. Current policy should keep in mind the restoration of this role is important to develop, so that Russia is not driven into a permanent alliance with China.” (RM, 05.23.22)
• George Soros told Davos-2022: “Russia invaded Ukraine. ... The invasion may have been the beginning of the Third World War and our civilization may not survive it. … [W]e must mobilize all our resources to bring the war to an early end. The best and perhaps only way to preserve our civilization is to defeat Putin as soon as possible. That’s the bottom line.” (RM, 05.24.22)
• Turkey will not be rushed to drop its opposition to moves by Sweden and Finland to join NATO by next month when leaders of the alliance’s member states meet for a summit in June, a senior adviser to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said. (FT, 05.26.22)
• Citing unnamed sources, the Italian daily Corriere della Sera has reported that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has invited Zelensky to create a new alliance, an alternative to the EU, that could include the Baltic states, Poland and later, possibly, Turkey. (LRT, 05.27.22) 

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Chinese and Russian nuclear-capable bombers flew over the Sea of Japan on May 24 as Biden attended a Quad summit in Tokyo, in a joint exercise the Japanese government denounced as “unacceptable.” (FT, 05.25.22)
• China's Huawei is indefinitely delaying a Russian rollout of next-generation 5G technology, a service that providers had been testing before the Ukraine invasion. (WP, 05.26.22)
• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has laid out the Biden administration’s China policy, which aims to lead the countries now jointly opposing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine into a broader coalition to counter what Washington sees as a more serious threat posed by Beijing. Blinken said that, while the U.S. sees Russia's war in Ukraine as the most immediate threat to international stability, the Biden administration believes China poses a greater danger. (RFE/RL, 05.26.22)
• Saudi Arabia and Argentina are interested in joining BRICS, the format that currently comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, Lavrov said. (Interfax, 05.26.22)
• Putin spoke in favor of the development of the Greater Eurasian Partnership, the creation of which was supported by the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union, as well as China, India and other states. It is necessary to form a comprehensive strategy for developing the that partnership, Putin said. Russia needs to focus on the Eurasian region in further development of the country and its capabilities, Lavrov said. (Interfax, 05.26.22, TASS, 05.26.22)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• No significant developments.

Counterterrorism:

• US General Cavoli warned May 26 that Russia's blockade of Ukrainian grain exports could enable terrorist networks in other parts of the world and may require U.S. military intervention to ensure global markets don't become destabilized. (WP, 05.27.22)
• Senior Turkish officials said the Islamic State’s new leader has been captured in a recent raid in Istanbul. News website OdaTV identified the arrested man as Abu al-Hassan al-Qurayshi. The jihadist group’s previous chief was killed in a U.S. operation in Syria in February. (Bloomberg, 05.26.22) 

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security:

• A court in Moscow has extended the pretrial detention of the head of a leading Russian cybersecurity company who was arrested last September on charges of state treason. An official for the Lefortovo district court said it had ruled on May 27 that Ilya Sachkov's pretrial detention was being prolonged until at least July 28. (RFE/RL, 05.27.22)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Saudi Arabia has signaled it will stand by Russia as a member of OPEC+ despite tightening western sanctions on Moscow and a potential EU ban on Russian oil imports. Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the energy minister, told FT that Riyadh was hoping “to work out an agreement with OPEC+ . . . which includes Russia,” insisting the “world should appreciate the value” of the alliance of producers. (FT, 05.22.22)
• G-7 energy ministers have called on OPEC to pump more oil as Russia’s war in Ukraine pushes crude prices to their highest levels in a decade. (FT, 05.27.22)
• Europe is developing contingency plans in case of a complete halt to Russian gas imports, the EU’s energy commissioner said, as she warned that any country was at risk of being cut off by Moscow. The plans would include measures to ration gas supplies to industry, according to people familiar with the proposals, while sparing households. (FT, 05.27.22) 

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Hillary Clinton approved of an effort in the months before the 2016 election to provide the press with research purporting to show a computer link between the company of her GOP rival, Donald Trump, and a Russian bank, her presidential campaign manager Robby Mook testified on May 27. (WSJ, 05.21.22)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The Russian Finance Ministry said it would cut the share of foreign currency earnings exporters were required to convert to rubles from 80% to 50%. (MT/AFP, 05.24.22)
• Putin has signed off on giving full control of the coveted Northern Sea Route to Rosatom. (Bellona, 05.23.22)
• According to polls conducted by the Levada Center, over the past 10 years, the share of Russians who believe that the results of polls should not be trusted since they are conducted in the interests of those who finance them has increased from 31% to 42%. (RM, 05.24.22)
• The State Duma passed in the first reading a bill that would give the Prosecutor General's Office the right to "prohibit or restrict" the work of foreign media in Russia. The Prosecutor General's Office, according to the document, will be able to deprive foreign journalists of accreditation, as well as block the websites of publications without a court order, if they spread "fakes" about the actions of the Russian army and "calls for sanctions" against Russia. (Media Zona, 05.24.22)
• A Moscow court has upheld a nine-year prison term for opposition politician Alexei Navalny, who is already behind bars for a previous conviction he and his supporters have called politically motivated. (RFE/RL, 05.24.22)
• Putin ordered 10% increases on May 25 in pensions and the minimum wage. (Reuters, 05.25.22)
• Russia is set to drop out of the agreement standardizing higher education across Europe, known as the Bologna Process, potentially cutting off Russian students from advancing their careers in Europe. (MT/AFP, 05.25.22)
• Marina Ovsyannikova, who protested Russia's invasion of Ukraine by interrupting a live news broadcast on Russian state television in March, has been awarded the Vaclav Havel International Prize for Creative Dissent. (RFE/RL, 05.25.22)
• Any “secret” contact with a foreign organization that a Russian citizen does not inform the Russian authorities about will be criminalized and punished by eight years in prison, according to a draft bill that the State Duma is to consider. (Meduza, 05.26.22)
• Russia’s Central Bank cut its key interest rate for the third consecutive time at an emergency meeting May 26 as authorities seek to rein in the surging ruble. The Bank of Russia will lower interest rates from 14% to 11% from May 27. (MT/AFP, 05.26.22)
• In a rare display of political protest in Russia, a group of lawmakers representing the Communist Party in the Far Eastern region of Primorye have called on Putin to stop military operations in Ukraine and withdraw all troops from the country. (RFE/RL, 05.27.22)
• Some academic researchers in Russia are quietly working to prevent colleagues who have supported their country’s invasion of Ukraine from being elected to the Russian Academy of Sciences this month. (NYT, 05.27.22)
• Russian parliamentary deputy Leonid Slutsky was unanimously elected May 27 the head of Russia’s nationalist Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR). (MT/AFP, 05.27.22)
• The ruble is now up 25% against the dollar this year, making it the world’s best-performing major currency in 2022. (GZERO Media, 05.26.22) 

Defense and aerospace:

• The State Duma has approved a bill that would raise the upper age limit for military personnel serving in the Russian Army on a contractual basis. According to the bill, which had all three readings approved on May 25, men up to age 65 will now be eligible to serve in the army. The new limit also applies to foreign nationals wishing to serve in the army as well. (RFE/RL, 05.25.22)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Putin has promoted his former personal bodyguard Alexander Kurenkov to be the Kremlin's new Emergencies Minister, months after his predecessor mysteriously fell to his death from a waterfall. (Daily Telegraph, 05.24.22)
• A military court in Russia's southern republic of Kabardino-Balkaria confirmed the dismissal of 115 national guardsmen who challenged their sacking after refusing to take part in Moscow's military operation in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 05.26.22)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Britain’s opposition Labor party has called on Boris Johnson to consider sanctions on Alexander Lebedev after the former KGB officer, whose son sits in the House of Lords, was placed under sanctions by Canada. (FT, 05.21.22)
• Representatives of the United States and several other countries have walked out of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation’s trade ministers meeting in Bangkok to protest Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The walkout took place while the Russian representative was delivering remarks. (RFE/RL, 05.21.22)
• A diplomat at Russia's Permanent Mission to the U.N. Office in Geneva says he has resigned in protest at the "needless" war Russia has launched against Ukraine. Boris Bondarev said in a statement placed on his LinkedIn page on May 23 that he has "never been so ashamed of my country as on Feb. 24," when Russia launched an invasion of its neighbor. (RFE/RL, 05.23.22)
• Danish Jehovah's Witness Dennis Christensen has been released from prison in Russia after serving a term he was handed on extremism charges that he and his supporters have denied. (RFE/RL, 05.24.22)

Ukraine:

• A Eurobarometer survey, conducted by the European Commission, indicated that 66% of respondents thought Ukraine should join the EU “when it is ready,” 22% were against and 12% didn’t know. These numbers conceal some telling national differences. For example, only 48% of Hungarians backed Ukraine’s entry. Every other country registered a majority in favor. (FT, 05.21.22)
• Polish President Andrzej Duda arrived on May 22 for a surprise visit to Kyiv and became the first head of state to address Ukraine’s parliament since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. In his speech, Duda urged Ukraine not to give in to Putin’s “demands.” (RFE/RL, 05.22.22)
• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has imposed a new state of emergency in the country, citing the war in Ukraine, which he said “poses a threat to our physical security.” (RFE/RL, 05.24.22)
• In a video from captivity posted by the SBU,  Medvedchuk— who counts Putin as godfather to one of his daughters—claimed Petro Poroshenko had asked him to seek Putin’s help in securing illicit energy supplies. (FT, 05.22.22)
• The World Health Assembly on May 26 voted in favor of a resolution that condemned Russian attacks on the health-care system in Ukraine before rejecting a parallel proposal presented by Moscow that Kyiv's representative to the U.N. in Geneva had called a "subterfuge" that presented a "twisted alternative reality" of the conflict. (WP, 05.26.22)
• Russia remains the world’s largest wheat exporter, Putin stated at the first Eurasian Economic Forum on May 26. (TASS, 05.26.22)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• The first meeting of a joint commission on the demarcation and security of the borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan will be soon held on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, European Council President Charles Michel said on May 22 after talks with the leaders of the two countries. (RFE/RL, 05.22.22)
• A court in Kyrgyzstan has canceled a lower court decision to fine Canadian company Centerra Gold 261.7 billion soms ($3.2 billion) for what were described as violations of environmental laws when it ran the Kumtor gold mine. (RFE/RL, 05.25.22, RFE/RL, 05.25.22)
• Moldova's government has not yet decided whether it would accept lethal weapons from NATO countries, but will be announcing a decision soon on steps to improve the country's security, Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu told RFE/RL. (RFE/RL, 05.26.22)
• A Moldovan court has placed former President Igor Dodon under house arrest for 30 days to allow prosecutors to investigate allegations of corruption and treason. (RFE/RL, 05.27.22)
• The people of Afghanistan should have unfettered access to humanitarian aid, according to today’s statement issued in Dushanbe at the end of the Fourth Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan with National Security advisers and secretaries of Security Councils. The statement was adopted on May 27 following a meeting attended by senior officials from China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. (TASS, 05.27.22)