6 Things to Know

1. The U.S. and Europe are finalizing a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. If Russia refuses the proposal, it will trigger new jointly imposed sanctions on Russia, according to Reuters. "What could happen in the coming hours and days, there could be an announcement of a ceasefire either of 30 days or compartmentalized, which is still being discussed," a French diplomatic source said May 9. A meeting of Ukraine's closest allies is due to take place on May 10, where the U.S.-European proposal will be discussed. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Finnish President Alexander Stubb have both expressed optimism that a ceasefire agreement could be reached as soon as "this weekend,” according to RBC.ua. Russia supports the implementation of a 30-day ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict, but only with due consideration of "nuances" in the more than three-year-old war, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying on May 9, Reuters reports.
2. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping met in the Kremlin on May 8 for bilateral meetings, after which Putin said that Russia-China cooperation had reached its “highest level,” describing the relationship as an “unbreakable friendship,” according to the Washington Post. In a joint statement on “global strategic stability” published on the Kremlin website, they warned that “a critical mass of problems and challenges has accumulated in the strategic sphere, and the risk of nuclear conflict has increased.” Nuclear powers should maintain “constructive” relations to ensure international security, according to the document, which made no mention of Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to Bloomberg; however, the Chinese Foreign Ministry reported that Putin said Russia is ready to begin peace talks on Ukraine without preconditions and hopes for a just and lasting peace agreement. The joint statement also pledged to strengthen military cooperation and criticized Donald Trump’s proposal to develop an Iron Dome-like missile defense system, MT/AFP reports. “Both countries are conducting an independent and autonomous foreign policy, and are interested in forming a more just and democratic, multipolar world order,” Putin said after the talks concluded, Bloomberg reports. The Kremlin also announced that Putin will travel to China at the end of August and beginning of September.
3. Military aid to Ukraine from the U.S. and EU is reportedly set to increase in the coming months. On May 4, The New York Times reported that a Patriot air-defense system previously based in Israel will be sent to Ukraine after it is refurbished, and Western allies are also discussing the logistics of Germany or Greece giving another one. Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, the U.S. State Department approved F-16 fighter-jet training and services for Ukraine worth up to $350 million, “signaling that the White House will keep supporting Kyiv in the fight against Russia,” Bloomberg reports. Additionally, on May 9, the EU pledged to allocate 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine’s defense industry, MT/AFP reports.
4. Despite the reverence for Ukraine's war dead, they, too, have become an income stream for corrupt officials, the Wall Street Journal reports. Some funeral homes pay officials to win large contracts for transporting or burying dead troops, according to officials with knowledge of the transactions. Funeral homes overcharge councils for soldiers' headstones and coffins and split the difference with officials, police say.
5. Two South American states this week sought closer ties with Russia, as Putin and his Venezuelan counterpart Nicolás Maduro signed a strategic partnership treaty and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva offered Putin wide-ranging cooperation on a variety of areas, MT/AFP reports. The strategic partnership with Venezuela is the latest in a series of alliances Russia has forged since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to MT/AFP, while Brazil’s Lula told Putin: “My visit today is aimed at strengthening the building of our strategic partnership,” according to a Russian-language readout. The closer ties between Venezuela, Brazil and Russia threaten a longstanding acknowledgment of South America as a U.S. sphere of interest.¹ Since taking office in January 2025, Trump has appeared to endorse a U.S. foreign policy that reanimates spheres of influence as a legitimate interest of great powers, of which he also counts Russia and China. Russia’s strengthened connections to these South American states may increase the friction between a Trump administration newly interested in acquiring, for example, Greenland, and a Russia potentially bent on re-establishing Ukraine and central Europe as its own sphere of influence.*
6. Putin on May 9 celebrated the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany "with a Red Square military parade designed to place Moscow at the vanguard of a rising, non-Western world order," the New York Times reports. Putin was joined by more than 20 foreign leaders from countries that largely position themselves as neutral or hostile to the West, including the leaders of China and Brazil and North Korean generals. Servicemen from “friendly nations” also took part in the event, though no North Korean soldiers marched in the parade, according to MT/AFP. No senior American officials were known to be in attendance. 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea’s short-range missile tests overseen by Kim Jong Un this week aimed to simulate nuclear attacks on the U.S. and South Korea, Pyongyang’s state media said May 9. Kim watched over the joint strike drills in the east coast involving the 600 millimeter multi-layer rocket system and Hwasong-11 short-range ballistic missiles, the Korean Central News Agency said. (Bloomberg, 05.09.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 9 greeted a delegation of North Korean officers after hosting a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory in World War II. “Thank you very much to all your fighters, your heroes. Best wishes,” Putin was overheard telling members of the North Korean delegation on Red Square. The Russian president was also seen embracing a North Korean lieutenant general adorned with medals. (MT/AFP, 05.09.25)
• The number of North Korean citizens entering Russia dropped sharply at the beginning of 2025, according to data from the FSB’s border service, Mediazona reports. Statistics published by the FSB show that about 300 North Koreans entered Russia in the first quarter of this year. In 2024, North Korean citizens made roughly 13,000 trips to Russia. (Meduza, 05.08.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Iran has accepted a proposal to hold a fourth round of nuclear talks with the United States in Oman on May 11, Tasnim reported , citing an unnamed representative of the Iranian negotiating team. (Kommersant, 05.09.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russia lacks any formal, organized effort to account for legions of missing soldiers. That often leaves relatives in limbo, fending for themselves with scant government information. In Ukraine, “Want to Find,” a government project to help locate Russian servicemen captured or killed there, said it had received more than 88,000 requests for information, with over 9,000 in April alone. It noted that the overall number of missing is still unknown. The International Committee of the Red Cross, which tries to locate missing from both sides, whether civilians or military, has 110,000 cases submitted. (New York Times, 05.03.25)
• Chairman of Russia’s Investigative Committee Alexander Bastrykin estimates that since 2014, more than 6,900 civilians from the Donbass republics, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions have died (including 195 minors). More than 18,200 civilians have been injured (including 972 children). (SLedcom.ru, 05.06.25)
• The United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine reported that Ukrainian civilian casualties increased 23% between March 2025 and April 2025 and increased by 84% between April 2024 and April 2025. (ISW, 05.08.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month, Russian forces made a net gain of 137 square miles in Ukraine (rough equivalent to 1 1/3 Nantucket islands), according to the May 7, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 05.07.25)
• In the past 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 255 square kilometers (98 square miles), according to a May 6, 2025 estimate by the Economist. (RM, 05.07.25)
• As of May 6, 2025, Russian forces occupied 112,715 square kilometers, of Ukrainian land (43,520 square miles), which constituted 18.7% of Ukrainian territory and which is roughly equivalent to the state of Ohio , according to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map.
• In a speech at the May 9 Victory Day parade, Putin referred only briefly to the continuing war in Ukraine, saying that Russia has been engaged in a “righteous fight,” and that “the whole country, society and people support the participants of the special military operation.” “Our fathers bequeathed to us to firmly defend our national interests, our thousand-year-old history, culture and traditional values,” said Putin, whose father fought in the world war. (New York Times, 05.09.25)

Friday, May 2, 2025

• Ongoing Russian efforts to seize Lyman and Pokrovsk and advance north of Toretsk toward the southernmost point of Ukraine's fortress belt in Kostyantynivka indicate that Putin maintains his long-standing goals of seizing the remainder of Donetsk Oblast. (ISW, 05.02.25)

Saturday, May 3, 2025

• On May 2-3, Ukrainian drones damaged Russia’s largest grain terminal in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk overnight, according to regional authorities and facility’s owner. “Work is underway at the KSK grain terminal to eliminate consequences” of a fire that started after debris from downed UAVs hit the facility, Delo Group said in a statement May 3 on Telegram. The fire has been extinguished and the facility is operating normally, it said. Earlier on Saturday, regional governor Veniamin Kondratyev said drones had damaged three storage reservoirs at the terminal. (Bloomberg, 05.03.25)

Sunday, May 4, 2025

• Ukraine said it downed two Russian jet fighters using sea drones equipped with modified U.S.-made missiles, in what military officials in Kyiv said is the first such attack in the history of warfare. Magura-7 sea drones deployed by Ukraine's military-intelligence agency, known as HUR, fired the missiles at two Su-30 jets that were flying near the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, HUR said. Russia’s military hasn't commented on the attack, which The Wall Street Journal wasn't able to verify. (Wall Street Journal, 05.04.25)
• On May 4, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced near Kamianka and Bilohorivka. (RM, 05.06.25)

Monday, May 5, 2025

• The Russian military command reportedly recently redeployed elements of the 68th Army Corps and 58th Combined Arms Army to the Toretsk direction from the Kurakhove and western Zaporizhzhia directions.(ISW, 05.05.25)
• On May 5, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces occupied Zelene Pole and advanced near Nove and Novomykhailivka. (RM, 05.05.25)

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

• On May 5-6, a Ukrainian drone attack halted flights at airports across a wide swath of Russia, Russian officials said, showing Kyiv’s ability to strike deep into Russian territory before a planned parade in Moscow to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe. Air defenses responded to the drone volley in at least 11 regions, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported. The attack closed 13 airports, including all four major airports serving Moscow, according to a Russian aviation agency. Flights resumed May 6 morning. The Ukrainian authorities have not commented on the strikes. (New York Times, 05.06.25)
• On May 5-6, Russian forces launched overnight drone attacks on Ukraine, targeting several areas, including the city of Kharkiv. According to Mayor Ihor Terekhov, the assault lasted about two hours and struck multiple neighborhoods across the city. (Meduza, 05.06.25)
• On May 6, Russian forces launched a missile strike on the outskirts of Ukraine’s Sumy, according to local officials. Three people were killed in the strike—two adult civilians and a child, according to the latest information from local authorities. The regional administration reported that four more children and four adults were injured. (Meduza, 05.06.25)
• Despite back-to-back drone attacks on Moscow and a degree of anxiety in the Russian capital, Ukrainian officials dismissed the possibility of any attacks on Russia's Victory Day celebrations this week as Russia marks the 80th anniversary May 9 of the surrender of Nazi Germany in World War II, and Putin hosts more than two dozen foreign leaders from friendly countries. There was increased speculation in Russia that Ukraine may use the opportunity to embarrass the Kremlin in front of its allies. A senior representative of Ukraine's defense forces, however, said an attempt was unlikely because of a low chance of success. (Washington Post, 05.06.25)
• Ukrainian forces continued limited attacks across the international border near Tetkino and Novyi Put, Kursk Oblast. (ISW, 05.06.25)
• The level of support for the actions of the Russian armed forces in April was 75% in Russia. Opinions on the issue of continuing military actions have not changed significantly over the past four months: more than half of respondents (61%) believe that peace talks should now be initiated, and every third (30%) says that military actions should be continued. There is no clear opinion among Russians about whether the special operation brought Russia more benefit or harm: four out of ten respondents believe that it brought more harm, and every third—more benefit. Another 28% found it difficult to answer. (Levada, 05.06.25)
• On May 6, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced near Kamianka and Bilohorivka. (RM, 05.06.25)

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

• On May 7, a strike in Kyiv killed two people and wounded another seven, including four children. (New York Times, 05.07.25)
• On May 7, Ukrainian drone attacks temporarily closed at least a dozen Russian airports, including one outside Moscow where foreign dignitaries later began arriving for the May 9 parade. Ukraine’s largest-ever drone attack against Russia triggered hours of travel chaos late May 6 and early May 7, with repeated airport closures in Moscow and its surrounding regions. Russia’s Defense Ministry said it destroyed 524 Ukrainian drones across the country overnight, making it the largest wave of drone attacks since February 2022. The military also reported destroying several rockets. (MT/AFP, 05.07.25, New York Times, 05.07.25)
  • Moscow’s four major airports struggled to return to normal operations May 8. At least 60,000 travelers were impacted by some 350 flight delays and cancellations at airports across the country, according to Russia’s Association of Tour Operators. In total, around 12% of all flights in and out of the Russian capital were canceled May 7. (MT/AFP, 05.08.25)
  • Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s flight to Moscow for this week’s Victory Day parade made a stop in Azerbaijan as Ukrainian drone strikes forced airports across Russia to halt travel for several hours. According to the Serbian tabloid Informer, Vučić’s plane made an “emergency landing” in Baku while awaiting clearance to proceed to Moscow. (MT/AFP, 05.07.25)
• On May 6–7, Russia launched four ballistic missiles and 142 drones targeting Kyiv and other regional centers overnight, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said May 7 in a post on X. Two people were killed in the capital and seven injured, including children, he said. The strikes also targeted other regions of Ukraine, including Dnipro, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, where more people were injured, according to local authorities. (Bloomberg, 05.07.25)
• On May 7, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Russian forces advanced in Novooleynivka, Oleksandropil and Leonidivka. (RM, 05.07.25)

Thursday, May 8, 2025

• Russian attacks on northeastern Ukraine killed at least one person as the country’s air force issued several alerts for missile and bomb attacks, despite a unilateral ceasefire ordered by Putin. In the village of Bilopillya, near the Russian border, a woman trapped under rubble was rescued following overnight airstrikes, emergency officials added. Ukraine’s Air Force initially reported no missile or drone activity as of 8:00 a.m. local time May 8, but said Russia had “intensified tactical airstrikes using guided aerial bombs” on Sumy overnight. Shortly after, the air force issued several air raid alerts for rocket and bomb attacks. (MT/AFP, 05.08.25)
• Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities were quiet after the cease-fire came into effect at midnight, with no reports of long-range drone or missile attacks after successive nights of bombardment. But the situation at the front was a different story, Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha wrote in a post on X. "According to our military data ... Russian forces continue to attack across the entire frontline. From midnight to midday, Russia committed 734 ceasefire violations and 63 assault operations, 23 of which are still ongoing," Sybiha wrote. (RFE/RL, 05.08.25)

  • Ukrainian troops have received orders to fire only in response to Russian attacks during the three-day ceasefire unilaterally declared by Putin, Suspilne reports, citing soldiers from three Ukrainian units fighting near the city of Pokrovsk and in southern Ukraine. However, troops from Ukraine’s 93rd Mechanized Brigade told Suspilne they had not received any orders to observe the ceasefire or refrain from opening fire first. (Meduza, 05.08.25)

Friday, May 9, 2025

• On May 8–9, for the second night of the three-day ceasefire unilaterally declared by Putin, neither the Russian nor Ukrainian militaries reported large-scale overnight drone attacks. However, regional officials in Ukraine reported ongoing strikes by Russian forces. According to Ukraine’s General Staff, 193 combat engagements were recorded over the past 24 hours. Russian forces launched one missile strike and 18 airstrikes on Ukrainian positions and settlements, carried out approximately 4,000 artillery attacks, and deployed 2,659 kamikaze drones. Ukrainian forces, in turn, struck 16 areas where Russian personnel and equipment were concentrated, along with two command posts, five artillery systems, a military warehouse, and four other strategic targets. (Meduza, 05.09.25)
• Since midnight on May 8 — the beginning of the unilateral ceasefire announced by Putin — the Ukrainian Armed Forces have committed 5,026 ceasefire violations, the Russian Defense Ministry reports. Four attempts were made to break through the state border in the Kursk and Belgorod regions. In these conditions, Russian military personnel are responding in kind to attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Ministry of Defense said. (Kommersant, 05.09.25)
• Throughout April, Russian ground forces made tactical gains around Pokrovsk—the key Ukrainian logistics hub which supports operations in the Donbas. While Russia conducts its Victory Day commemorations, Ukrainian forces highly likely continue to conduct limited kinetic operations in Russia's Kursk border region. Ukraine's incursion into Kursk, in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, is the first time since the Second World War that foreign troops have conducted operations in Russian territory. (UKMOD X account, 05.09.25)
• The New York Times reported in March that, according to 2023 and 2024 shipping records, the British aerospace manufacturer H.R. Smith Group exported equipment to India that had been flagged as critical to Russian weapon systems. The Indian company, Hindustan Aeronautics, is the biggest trading partner of the Russian arms agency Rosoboronexport. A lawyer for H.R. Smith recently provided The Times with a statement from Hindustan Aeronautics staying that the British equipment was not sold to Russia. The statement was dated a week after the Times article was published and received coverage in India. (New York Times, 05.09.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• A Patriot air-defense system that was based in Israel will be sent to Ukraine after it is refurbished, four current and former U.S. officials said in recent days, and Western allies are discussing the logistics of Germany or Greece giving another one. The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions, declined to describe President Donald Trump’s view of the decision to transfer more Patriot systems to Ukraine. (New York Times, 05.04.25)
• The U.S. State Department approved F-16 fighter-jet training and services for Ukraine worth up to $350 million, signaling that the White House will keep supporting Kyiv in the fight against Russia despite Trump’s impatience to end the war. The approval by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, which still needs Congressional signoff, covers services including personnel training, modifications, repairs, ground handling and software upgrades, it said in a statement May 2. (Bloomberg, 05.03.25)
• The European Union on May 9 pledged to allocate 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine’s defense industry. “We have just made available 1 billion euros for the Ukrainian defense industry so that Ukraine can better defend itself,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said during a visit to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. “This funding will directly support Ukrainian defense companies and secure additional military aid over the coming months, which are critical,” she added. (MT/AFP, 05.09.25)
  • Earlier this week, Lithuania appealed to Germany’s new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, to come on board with a proposal to seize Russia’s immobilized central bank assets as the European Union debates ways to finance support for Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 05.08.25)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Czech President Petr Pavel announced on May 4 that Czech Republic will work with Ukraine to establish a school to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets outside of Ukraine. (ISW, 05.05.25)
• Czechs are leading talks on continuing deliveries of heavy ammunition for Ukraine stretching into 2026, said Pavel. The Czech leader, speaking after meeting Zelenskyy in Prague May 4, said the so-called Czech ammunition initiative financed by 11 countries was on track to deliver 1.8 million shells to Kyiv this year. “This is a very strong decision,” Zelenskyy said of the initiative, which he added was “working brilliantly.” (Bloomberg, 05.04.25)
• New German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for all European member states “to increase their defense spending to fill gaps in military capability and to continue to fully support Ukraine.” The chancellor, who previously warned Europe it could no longer count on the U.S. to defend it, said the war in Ukraine “will not end without further political and military engagement from the United States of America. The Europeans cannot replace it.” (Financial Times, 05.07.25)
• This week, a meeting of leaders of the "Coalition of the Resolute" countries will take place in Ukraine, who are considering the possibility of sending a contingent to Ukrainian territory, Zelenskyy said May 9. The Ukrainian head of state spoke at a summit of the countries participating in the Joint Expeditionary Force, which includes Britain, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Ukraine. (RBC.ua, 05.09.25)
• In his interview with the BBC, former U.S. President Joe Biden was challenged on whether he gave enough support to Kyiv to ensure they could win the war as opposed to just resist Russia's full-scale invasion. During three years of fighting, his White House shifted its position on the use of U.S.-supplied weapons and lifted some restrictions over time. "We gave them everything they needed to provide for their independence, and we were prepared to respond, more aggressively, if Putin moved again," he said. (BBC, 05.08.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Polish President Andrzej Duda said he is pressuring Donald Trump to strengthen sanctions against Russia in an effort to force Moscow to end its war in Ukraine, Politico reported. Duda described Trump as the only person capable of bringing Putin to the negotiating table. “America can use various economic instruments to force Russia to respect certain actions,” Duda said. (Meduza, 05.06.25)
• The Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression Against Ukraine, as it's called, will be formalized in Luxembourg on May 14 when the Council of Europe's Committee of Ministers meets. Russia will not respond to plans by some EU countries to establish a tribunal against the Russian Federation, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said to TASS. (RFE/RL, 05.07.25, Kommersant, 05.09.25)
• Finland has put forward a proposal to impose tariffs on all imports from Russia to the European Union that will work in parallel to existing sanctions in the latest attempt to pile pressure on Moscow over the war in Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 05.08.25)  

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Saturday, May 3, 2025

• Zelenskyy on May 3 said Ukraine will not adhere to a three-day ceasefire proposed by Russia, saying such a short truce would not help in negotiations for a lasting peace. Ukraine in March accepted a proposal from the Trump administration for a 30-day ceasefire, to be followed by talks on matters including the location of an armistice line, steps to safeguard a nuclear power plant occupied by the Russian army and deployment of a possible European peacekeeping force. (New York Times, 05.05.25)
• Ukraine wants to host a meeting of national security advisers from the U.S., U.K., France and Germany at a yet-to-be-determined date to discuss further steps in the peace process, said Zelenskyy. (Bloomberg, 05.03.25)

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

• On May 6, U.S. envoy to Ukraine, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, said that Ukraine has agreed on a deal that would create a demilitarized zone between Russia and Ukraine—leaving Russia in control of most of the territory it currently occupies—as part of a 30-day ceasefire. But he acknowledged that Russia has not yet accepted the proposal. "Right now, probably, our impediment in progress is the president of Russia not agreeing to it," he told Fox News. (Washington Post, 05.06.25)

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

• U.S. Vice President JD Vance called for direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, saying a deal to end Moscow's war against its neighbor might be out of reach without such contacts. In comments on May 7, Vance said Russia is "asking too much" but also suggested Ukraine should not be fixated on the idea of a 30-day ceasefire. He said "the gulf is wide" but he is "reasonably optimistic" about the chances of ending the war. "You don't need to agree with Russian justification of the war, but you need to understand where they are coming from -- making them talk of what it takes for them to end the war," Vance said. (RFE/RL, 05.07.25)
  • "The step we need to take right now is we need Russia and Ukraine to start talking to one another," said Vance. "We think it's probably impossible for us to mediate the whole process fully without at least some direct negotiations." (RFE/RL, 05.07.25)
  • Vance reiterated Trump’s threat to walk away from the table unless an agreement is reached soon, saying “we would like both the Russians and Ukrainians to actually agree on some basic guidelines for sitting down and talking to one another.” The U.S. is “happy to participate in those conversations” but “it’s very important” for Russia and Ukraine to communicate with one another, Vance added. (Bloomberg, 05.07.25)
  • “We knew that the Russians’ first offer would be too much, we knew that they would ask for more than was reasonable to give, that’s how negotiations often work,” he said. “I’m not bothered by that. What would bother me is if we conclude that the Russians are not engaging in the negotiation in good faith.” In that case, Vance said, the White House would walk away from its role as the mediator. (Politico, 05.08.25)
• Trump has suggested that Russia’s men’s national team being allowed into the qualification process for the 2026 World Cup could be an incentive for the country to end the war in Ukraine. (New York Times, 05.07.25)
• Speaking in Delaware May 5, former U.S. President Joe Biden said in an interview with BBC that Putin believed Ukraine was part of Russia and "anybody that thinks he's going to stop" if some territory is conceded as part of a peace deal "is just foolish." (BBC, 05.07.25)

Thursday, May 8, 2025

• Trump called on May 8 for an "ideally 30-day unconditional ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine and threatened sanctions if it is "not respected." Trump's announcement on his Truth Social account was published shortly after a phone call he had with Zelenskyy, during which the two leaders discussed the possibility of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine, sources briefed on the call said. "Hopefully, an acceptable ceasefire will be observed, and both Countries will be held accountable for respecting the sanctity of these direct negotiations. If the ceasefire is not respected, the U.S. and its partners will impose further sanctions," Trump wrote. Zelensky wrote on his X account after his call with Trump that they discussed "concrete steps that could be taken" to end the war. (Axios, 05.08.25)
  • Zelenskyy’s office published a readout of the call, saying the two leaders had congratulated one another on the anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe. It also said that on the call, “President Trump confirmed that he wants to see this war ended and is ready to help.” Zelenskyy quickly welcomed Trump’s endorsement of a 30-day cease-fire, posting on X early May 9 that, “Ukraine is ready for a full ceasefire starting right now, from this very moment.” (New York Times, 05.09.25)
• China hopes “a fair, lasting and binding peace deal that is accepted by all parties involved” could be reached through dialogue, Chinese President Xi Jinping told Putin during a tea chat in Moscow on May 8, according to the Xinhua News Agency. (Bloomberg, 05.09.25)
  • Putin and Xi Jinping exchanged views on the "Ukrainian crisis" during their talks held at the Kremlin on May 8, the Chinese Foreign Ministry reported May 9. The Chinese leader stressed that “the legitimate security interests of all countries should be taken seriously, and the root causes of the crisis must be addressed.” He reportedly said that China welcomes peace efforts and hopes for an agreement between Moscow and Kyiv that would be acceptable to both sides. Additionally, the Chinese Foreign Ministry reported that Putin said Russia is ready to begin peace talks without preconditions and hopes for a just a lasting peace agreement. The Kremlin’s own reports on the talks made no mention of discussions about ending the war. (Meduza, 05.09.25)
• The Nordic, Baltic and Dutch government leaders have held talks with Trump and Zelenskyy about the prospects of a cease fire in Ukraine. The discussions came out of a conference in Oslo called the Joint Expeditionary Force Leader’s summit, where the countries’ leaders gathered late May 8. The premiers “stressed the importance of a cease fire which Russia will respect and a peace deal that Ukraine can accept” in a call, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said in a post on Instagram. Finland’s President Alexander Stubb posted a picture of the leaders on X and said “things are moving.” (Bloomberg, 05.09.25)
• Vance said May 8 that Russia has asked for territory it hasn’t conquered in peace talks over its invasion of Ukraine, as the White House continues to signal frustration with Moscow in its efforts to end the war. “Russia can’t expect to be given territory that they haven’t even conquered yet,” Vance told Fox News’ Martha MacCallum in an interview. “And that’s one of the things that they’ve put down in that initial peace plan.” (Politico, 05.08.25)

Friday, May 9, 2025

• The United States and its European allies are finalizing a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine that if refused would see them jointly impose new sanctions on Russia, a French diplomatic source said May 9. "We're not completely with a finalized project, but we hope that we're at a moment of convergence," said the diplomatic source, speaking on condition of anonymity. "What could happen in the coming hours and days, there could be an announcement of a ceasefire either of 30 days or compartmentalized, which is still being discussed." A meeting of Ukraine's closest allies is due to take place on May 10 where the U.S.-European proposal will be discussed. Russia supports the implementation of a 30-day ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict, but only with due consideration of "nuances" in the more than three-year-old war, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying on May 9. (Reuters, 05.09.25, Reuters, 05.09.25)
• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said May 9 that he believes that a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine is possible in the next two days. This is reported by RBC-Ukraine with reference to Bild. According to the publication, the Chancellor hopes for a ceasefire in the war between Russia and Ukraine. "I have high hopes that a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine will be reached this weekend," Merz said. He also added that given the three-day ceasefire announced by Russia, there is a "strong chance" that it will be extended to 30 days, at which point "negotiations on a peace treaty can begin." (RBC.ua, 05.09.25)
  • Finnish President Alexander Stubb, according to media reports, also says that Ukraine and Russia will soon reach a ceasefire agreement. According to Stubb, ideally, a ceasefire in Ukraine should be announced by the weekend. (RBC.ua, 05.09.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Joined by North Korean generals and the leaders of China and Brazil, Putin on May 9 marked the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany with a Red Square military parade designed to place Moscow at the vanguard of a rising, non-Western world order. Despite Trump’s apparent openness to dealing with Putin, no senior American officials were known to be in attendance at the Victory Day parade. Instead, Putin was joined by more than 20 foreign leaders from countries that largely position themselves as neutral or hostile to the West. Servicemen from “friendly nations” also took part in Friday’s event, though no North Korean soldiers marched in the parade. (New York Times, 05.09.25, MT/AFP, 05.09.25)
• Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov explicitly identified large-scale Russian military reforms as preparations for a future conflict with NATO as Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev threatened that European countries must "remember" the "crushing defeat of Nazi Germany" when supporting Ukraine. (ISW, 05.08.25)
• Trump said it is not a good time to invite Russia to rejoin the G-7, months after saying he’d like to see the nation reinstated. “I think it’s not good timing now,” Trump said May 6 during a meeting of his World Cup task force. “We missed that gate with another great decision by some people that shouldn’t have been making decisions.” (Bloomberg, 05.06.25)
• The possibility that the NATO alliance might be dying is a “grave concern,” Biden said in his interview with the BBC. “We’re the only nation in position to have the capacity to bring people together to lead the world,” he said “Otherwise you’re going to have China and the former Soviet Union, Russia, stepping up.” (New York Times, 05.07.25)
• Discussing Putin, Biden told the BBC: "I just don't understand how people think that if we allow a dictator, a thug, to decide he's going to take significant portions of land that aren't his, that that's going to satisfy him. I don't quite understand." He also said he feared some countries in the Nato alliance that border Russia may "just say we've got to make an accommodation" to Putin if Ukraine ultimately gives up land. (BBC, 05.07.25)
• The U.S. military has completed successful test flights of a reusable hypersonic rocket-powered aircraft, its first such accomplishment in more than a half century. The success is a sign of the Pentagon's progress in a wartime technology race in which China has a sizable lead. Two startups conducted the test flights of a vessel called the Talon-A: Stratolaunch, based in the Mojave Desert, is the company making the hypersonic test aircraft; Ursa Major is a Colorado-based builder of liquid rocket engines. The fully autonomous flights occurred in December and March, the Defense Department said May 5, and exceeded five times the speed of sound -- the generally accepted designation of hypersonic speed. (Wall Street Journal, 05.07.25)
• France and Germany will set up a joint security council as part of Europe's increased focus on its own defense, President Emmanuel Macron said as he hosted Friedrich Merz on the new chancellor's first state visit abroad. The two leaders vowed to reinforce cooperation in the face of increased threats from Russia and an unpredictable U.S. administration under Trump. "Beyond tanks, combat aircraft and long-range missiles, we will establish a Franco-German defense and security council that will meet regularly to provide operational solutions to our common strategic challenges," Macron said, singling out "the systematic threat Russia poses to our European system." (Financial Times, 05.09=7.25)
• The Pentagon wants the U.K. military to focus more on Europe and less on Asia, in a major policy shift from the Biden administration, which pushed European allies to boost activity in the IndoPacific to send a strong signal to China. (Financial Times, 05.09.25)
• Italy will increase its defense spending to reach NATO’s target of 2% of gross domestic product this year, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said. (Bloomberg, 05.07.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping greeted one another as “dear friend” on May 8 as they met in Moscow’s Grand Kremlin Palace. They held bilateral meetings in Moscow May 8, emphasizing the alliance between their countries as they seek to upend the U.S.-led world order. Xi is visiting Moscow this week for talks with Putin, who will honor the Chinese leader as the “main guest” at the annual victory over Nazi Germany in World War II parade on May 9. Putin said after the meeting that cooperation had reached its “highest level,” describing the Russia-China relationship as an “unbreakable friendship.” (Washington Post, 05.08.25, Bloomberg, 05.08.25, New York Times, 05.07.25)
  • “Both countries are conducting an independent and autonomous foreign policy, and are interested in forming a more just and democratic, multipolar world order,” Putin said during joint statements with Xi after their talks concluded on Thursday. China and Russia will continue to cooperate “and eliminate external interference,” Xi said. (Bloomberg, 05.08.25)
  • In a joint statement on “global strategic stability” published on the Kremlin website, they warned that “a critical mass of problems and challenges has accumulated in the strategic sphere, and the risk of nuclear conflict has increased.” Nuclear powers should maintain “constructive” relations to ensure international security, according to the document that made no mention of Russia’s continuing war in Ukraine. They also pledged to strengthen military cooperation in the joint statement.  (Bloomberg, 05.08.25)
  • Russia and China have “a fully fledged partnership and strategic interests,” Putin said at the start of their talks. “We are developing our ties in the interests of both our peoples and not aimed against anyone.” Xi and Putin pledged to counter U.S. efforts at “dual containment” of Russia and China, vowing to “resolutely oppose the imposition of hostile approaches towards Russia and China.” (Bloomberg, 05.08.25, Washington Post, 05.08.25)
  • “Together with our Chinese friends, we firmly stand guard over the historical truth, protect the memory of the war years and counter modern manifestations of neo-Nazism and militarism,” Putin said. (Washington Post, 05.08.25)
  • “Facing the current headwinds of unilateralism and bullying behavior by powerful forces in the international community, China stands together with Russia to shoulder the special responsibilities of being a global power and a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council,” Xi said. (Washington Post, 05.08.25)
  • The Kremlin announced May 6 that Putin will travel to China at the end of August and beginning of September, reciprocating Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia this week to attend festivities marking Victory Day in World War II. The Russian leader confirmed he’d take part in a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin, China, in September. (Bloomberg, 05.08.25, Washington Post, 05.08.25)
  • Putin described Moscow’s close ties with Beijing as a “stabilizing factor in the international arena,” despite what he called a difficult geopolitical situation. He also said nearly all trade between Russia and China had migrated to rubles and yuan, as opposed to dollars, protecting the nations “from the influence of third countries.” Putin and Xi also strongly condemned the use of tariffs and “unilateral illegitimate restrictive measures,” a criticism that was directed at Washington, with China under intense economic pressure in Trump’s trade war. (New York Times, 05.08.25, Washington Post, 05.08.25)
  • During the visit, the Russian and Chinese space agencies signed a joint memo on the construction of a power plant on the moon, according to the Russian state news agency TASS. The nations will require a power source for a permanent lunar research base they are seeking to build and have said they want to construct an automated nuclear reactor. (New York Times, 05.08.25)
• Prior to his arrival in Moscow, Xi invoked the historical alignment between Russia and China, writing in an article published in media in both countries that “the just forces of the world, including China and the Soviet Union, fought bravely and defeated the arrogant fascist forces side-by-side”. He added: “Eighty years later, unilateralism, hegemony and bullying are extremely harmful. Humanity is once again at the crossroads.” (Financial Times, 05.07.25)
• In an article for Russia's Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper published May 7, Xi hailed "resilient" China-Russia ties and called for other countries to stay out of their relationship. "The two sides should jointly resist any attempt to interfere with and undermine the China-Russia friendship and mutual trust, not be confused by temporary events or disturbed by the rough seas and use the certainty and resilience of China-Russia strategic cooperation to jointly promote the process of world multipolarization and the building of a community with a shared future for mankind," he wrote. (MT/AFP, 05.07.25)

Missile defense:

• Russia and China on May 8 criticized Trump’s proposal to develop a missile defense system modeled on Israel’s Iron Dome, calling it “deeply destabilizing” and warning it could turn space into a “battlefield.” “The recently announced large-scale ‘Golden (Iron) Dome for America’ program is also deeply destabilizing,” Russia and China said in a joint statement published by the Kremlin following talks between Putin and Xi in Moscow. The missile defense plan “explicitly provides for a significant strengthening of the arsenal for conducting combat operations in space,” the statement added. Moscow and Beijing said they would begin consultations on preventing the deployment of weapons in space and pledged to “counter policies and activities aimed at achieving military supremacy and formalizing the use of space as a battlefield.” (MT/AFP, 05.08.25)

Nuclear arms:

• The mayor of Nagasaki on May 8 announced that the city will invite representatives “of all countries’’ and regions to the peace memorial marking the 80th anniversary of the atomic bombing of the city, including Russia, Belarus, and Israel, which were excluded last year. Mayor Shiro Suzuki said he wants all representatives to see the brutal consequences of atomic weapons use as a lesson at a time of growing divisions. (The Boston Globe, 05.09.25)

Counterterrorism:

• Teen terrorism is rising in Europe, with youths as young as 13 radicalized online and plotting attacks linked to Islamist or far-right ideologies. Social media, AI-driven content and global conflicts like the Gaza war fuel radicalization. One striking case is Abdul Kerim Gadaev, a 19-year-old Chechen refugee in Belgium, who was arrested with three minors for plotting an attack inspired by the 2015 Bataclan massacre. Gadaev, alienated after his father's deportation, was drawn into extremist circles via TikTok and encrypted apps. Authorities are overwhelmed, as radicalized teens increasingly act alone, making early detection and prevention difficult. (Wall Street Journal, 05.04.25)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• No significant developments.

Energy exports from CIS:

• Moscow and Washington are discussing the possible resumption of Russian gas supplies to Europe as part of broader negotiations over a potential peaceful settlement in Ukraine, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov said May 9. The day before, on May 8, Reuters reported that the U.S. and Russia were engaged on talks on the matter. Sources told the outlet that restoring Moscow’s role in the E.U. gas market could help Washington solidify a peace deal with Putin. (Meduza, 05.09.25)
• The European Union’s executive arm is set to propose a new package of sanctions targeting Moscow’s covert fleet of oil tankers as it seek to crank up pressure on Russia over its war against Ukraine. The sanctions suggested by the European Commission will cover 60 individuals and entities as well as include restrictions on some 150 vessels, according to people familiar with the matter. That would bring the total number of listed ships to more than 300, one of the people said. (Bloomberg, 05.06.25)
• British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on May 9 announced the U.K.’s largest sanctions package yet targeting Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of oil tankers believed to be circumventing Western restrictions imposed over the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The British government said it was sanctioning up to 100 vessels that have carried more than $24 billion worth of oil since early 2023. It also unveiled measures aimed at individuals and entities behind the fleet. (MT/AFP, 05.09.25)
• The European Union is set to propose measures to ban Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, as the bloc pushes to sever ties with the country that was once its biggest energy supplier. The EU plans to propose in June a ban on all gas purchases under new deals with Russia and existing spot contracts, which account for about a third of imports, to take effect before the end of the year, according to the people. (Bloomberg, 05.05.25)
• Oil prices are falling. Economists are cutting forecasts for global economic growth. Oil giants are reporting lower profits. But on May 3, eight countries that belong to OPEC+ said they would add about 411,000 barrels of oil a day in June. (New York Times, 05.04.25)
• During their May 8 talks, Xi and Putin discussed the proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project, though they didn’t talk about changing the route to avoid transit through Mongolia, Tass reported, citing Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. They gave instructions to speed up the project, he said. (Bloomberg, 05.08.25)
• Russia kept its crude oil production below the nation’s OPEC+ quota in April, according to people familiar with the data. Producers pumped 8.975 million barrels a day last month, almost unchanged from March levels, the people said. (Bloomberg, 05.07.25)
• Tumbling oil prices dragged the value of Russia’s crude exports to the lowest in more than two years, forcing the Kremlin to consider tightening its key budget-building mechanism while the war in Ukraine continues to drain state coffers. Total shipments in the four weeks to May 4 were worth about $4.96 billion; that was $220 million, or 4%, less than the period to April 27. (Bloomberg, 05.07.25)
  • Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that Russia’s national interests are above any fluctuations in global oil prices, in response to a comment by Trump that a drop in oil prices could push Russia to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. (Kommersant, 05.06.25)
• Hungary raised objections to a European Union proposal to sanction Litasco Middle East DMCC, a Dubai-based trading unit of Russian oil giant Lukoil PJSC, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 05.09.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• A meeting between Putin and Trump is getting closer, according to the Kremlin’s top foreign policy aide. “I think we’re moving” toward this, Yuri Ushakov told state television Thursday in response to a question about progress on the issue. Trump later in the day said he doesn’t expect to meet Putin in Saudi Arabia during his trip next week to the Middle East. But the U.S. leader told reporters at the White House that the two are having very good conversations. (Bloomberg, 05.08.25)
• Putin and Trump exchanged congratulations on Victory Day through their aides, presidential aide Yuri Ushakov reported. (Kommersant, 05.09.25)
• Russian disinformation campaign “Operation Overload” used AI-generated fake news videos to target USAID, with one false clip about celebrity endorsements for Zelenskyy going viral after Elon Musk amplified it on X. While most posts failed, researchers note even single successes justify these AI-powered “numbers game” tactics aimed at undermining Western support for Ukraine. The operation has since shifted focus to European elections, exploiting reduced moderation and defunded fact-checking efforts under the Trump administration. (Washington Post, 05.06.25)
• Former Vice President Mike Pence on May 5 criticized Trump's wavering support for Ukraine. "If the last three years teaches us anything, it's that Vladimir Putin doesn't want peace. He wants Ukraine," Pence said. "And the fact that we are now nearly two months following a ceasefire agreement that Ukraine has agreed to, and Russia continues to delay and give excuses—it confirms that point." (Washington Post, 05.06.25)
• Joe Biden said in his first post-presidential interview that Trump’s pressure on Ukraine to give up territory to Russia amounts to "modern-day appeasement," a historically fraught term that refers to a failed effort to stop the Nazis from annexing land in Europe in the 1930s. (AP, 05.07.25)
• Russian officials have accused Trump of exaggerating America’s role in World War II, with senior figures dismissing his remarks as historically inaccurate and self-aggrandizing. Trump wrote on Truth Social last week that the United States contributed the most to the Allied victory, downplaying the roles of European countries that suffered higher casualties. (MT/AFP, 05.07.25)
• The delay in securing a Ukrainian peace deal, according to Russia expert Fiona Hill, is putting Trump in a difficult position. "He's going to look for someone to blame. He won't want to blame Putin," she said. Trump, she added, regards only Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping as true peers and has little tolerance for what he sees as disrespect or disinterest from leaders he considers equals. "It could well be as he gets more and more angry with Putin that he gets more and more interested in lashing out against Ukraine because he doesn't want to appear weak," she said. (RFE/RL, 05.09.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The May 9 Victory Day parade was the biggest since the invasion of Ukraine, according to numbers provided by the Russian Defense Ministry. More than 180 military vehicles, including tanks, howitzers and nuclear missile launchers, rolled through the square, the ministry said. Last year’s parade featured only one tank—a Soviet-era model—along with other military equipment. (New York Times, 05.09.25)
• Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov published an article on May 8 in which he argued that Russia's war in Ukraine will go down in history as a feat of courage and significance equal to the victory of the Soviet military and people during the Second World War. Belousov claimed that Russia's war in Ukraine is a continuation of the "glorious traditions" of Soviet bravery and heroism and of the Soviet people's enthusiasm for enlisting and otherwise supporting the war effort. (ISW, 05.08.25)
• Russian Security Council Secretary and former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu published an op-ed in the official Russian government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta on May 6, arguing that military and political unity against a common enemy is Russia's only path to a strong and victorious future. (ISW, 05.06.25)
• Russia has fully launched a nationwide digital military summons system aimed at cracking down on draft dodgers by closing long-standing loopholes in the paper-based process, an organization that helps Russian army deserters said May 9. The registry allows authorities to issue summons through the online government portal Gosuslugi, by mail or via the new digital database, eliminating the requirement for in-person delivery, which had made the draft easy to avoid. (MT/AFP, 05.09.25)
• The wives and mothers of mobilized Russian soldiers are calling for a silent protest on Victory Day May 9 to demand the return of their loved ones from the war in Ukraine. “Let this be a reminder: we have not forgotten. We do not accept this. We are waiting for our loved ones,” Put’ Domoi said in a statement. “We want peace—not just in words, but for real. In memory of the past war. As a symbol of this one.” (MT/AFP, 05.08.25)
• Russia's federal budget revenues from oil and gas in April 2025 decreased by almost 12% compared to April last year, the Finance Ministry reported. (Kommersant, 05.07.25)
• Russia’s federal budget deficit surged in April as declining oil revenue and rising military spending continue to strain government finances. The monthly shortfall reached 1.05 trillion rubles ($13 billion) after being in surplus a month earlier, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the Finance Ministry. That brings the cumulative deficit for the first four months of the year to 3.2 trillion rubles—nearly triple the level recorded over the same period in 2024. (Bloomberg, 05.07.25)
  • Russia is considering changing its key budget-building mechanism in response to sliding oil revenue, in a sign the Kremlin expects crude prices will remain lower for longer while the war in Ukraine continues to drain state coffers. The government may reduce the threshold of its so-called budget rule to around $50 per barrel from $60 currently from next year if crude prices remain low, according to a person familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg, 05.06.25)
• Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov expressed his desire to resign from his post this week but acknowledged that only Putin can approve this request. The 48-year-old later revised his statement. Kadyrov met with Putin in the Kremlin on May 7, reportedly securing support from the central government amid growing speculation about the future of his nearly two-decade rule. Some experts speculate that Kadyrov’s remarks about stepping down, which he has made several times over the years, are likely part of a strategy to secure financial or other guarantees from Moscow, rather than a genuine desire to retire. (MT/AFP, 05.08.25, ISW, 05.06.25)
  • Following the meeting, Kadyrov wrote on Telegram: “Vladimir Vladimirovich, commenting on the latest discussions on the Internet, again quoted the famous words of Mark Twain: ‘Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.’ He added that we still have a lot of work to do. I am carrying out the order of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief!" (Kommersant, 05.08.25)
• Russian law enforcement authorities issued an arrest warrant for Alexander Gabuev, the exiled director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, on unspecified charges, the independent news outlet Mediazona reported May 7. Gabuev’s name appeared in the Interior Ministry’s wanted database a month after state media reported that he had been charged with engaging in activities of an “undesirable” organization and failing to comply with Russia’s “foreign agent” law. (MT/AFP, 05.07.25)
• Former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Pavel Popov has been transferred from pre-trial detention to a civilian hospital for possible surgery, state news agencies reported Thursday. Popov, 68, was arrested last summer on fraud charges as part of a wider anti-corruption crackdown in the Defense Ministry. He is accused of forcing contractors working on a military theme park outside Moscow to carry out unpaid construction at his private property. Popov denies the charges. (MT/AFP, 05.08.25)
• Staff and customers at a Moscow cafe that employs Central Asians say they were badly beaten by police during a raid, part of what they say is an intensifying campaign against migrants from the region. The crackdowns, which have escalated in recent weeks, are reportedly occurring even in cases where no documentation violations are found among migrant workers. (RFE/RL, 05.08.25)
• Alrosa PJSC said it mined Russia’s largest ever diamond of jewelry quality. The company extracted the 468.30-carat, amber-colored gem in Yakutia in the country’s Far East, according to a statement on Thursday. (Bloomberg, 05.08.25)
• Russia is being gripped by a potato crisis. The price Russians pay for them has jumped to a record, climbing nearly 50% this year alone to mark the biggest increase of any tracked food, according to the Federal Statistics Service. That follows an almost doubling in prices in 2024 amid poor harvests. (Bloomberg, 05.09.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• An explosives plant in Siberia is undergoing a large-scale expansion to produce the high-powered explosive RDX, Reuters reported May 8, citing procurement records and sources close to the project. The Biysk Oleum Plant (BOZ) is reportedly constructing a new production line valued at 15.5 billion rubles ($189 million), with completion initially slated for late 2025. Located some 3,000 kilometers (1,860 miles) east of Moscow, BOZ is far from the reach of Ukrainian drone strikes that have increasingly targeted Russia’s military-industrial sector since the start of the full-scale invasion. The facility is owned by the Ya.M. Sverdlov plant, which is under European Union sanctions as the “only Russian manufacturer” of the high-powered explosives RDX and HMX. (MT/AFP, 05.08.25)
• A Soviet spacecraft launched in 1972 is falling back to Earth after 53 years. It is expected to enter the Earth's atmosphere early May 10, but exactly where is unclear. The spacecraft, Kosmos 482, was meant to travel to Venus, but malfunctioned shortly after liftoff and entered an elliptical orbit around Earth, where its intact landing vehicle has remained. (Wall Street Journal, 05.09.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Two individuals opened fire on a traffic police patrol in Makhachkala, the capital of Russia's Republic of Dagestan, according to reports from RIA Dagestan and the Telegram channels 112, Mash, and Baza. RIA Dagestan reported that three police officers were killed. The attackers fled the scene in a stolen police vehicle, and authorities launched a citywide manhunt. (Meduza, 05.05.25)

• An explosion occurred in an apartment building in southwest Moscow on May 4 evening, followed by a fire that spread across two floors, local officials said. Two people were killed in the blast and fire, according to Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry. Five others were injured, including two children. The Telegram channels Mash and Baza reported that three people had died. (Meduza, 05.05.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Five members of the European Parliament also planned to visit Moscow this week to attend events marking the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, German media reported May 7. The delegation includes two lawmakers from Germany’s far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which opposes military aid to Ukraine, as well as MEPs from the Czech Republic, Cyprus and Slovakia. The group hopes to “hold talks with parliamentarians and other representatives… to overcome the ever-increasing spiral of confrontation and escalation in Europe,” according to a BSW press release quoted by dpa. (MT/AFP, 05.08.25)
• Moscow has said it is “deeply concerned by the heightened military tensions between India and Pakistan” following New Delhi’s air strikes on Pakistan. (Financial Times, 05.07.25)
• Putin and his Venezuelan counterpart Nicolás Maduro on May 7 signed a strategic partnership treaty in Moscow, the latest in a series of alliances Russia has forged since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The deal marks Russia’s fourth such agreement in two years, following similar pacts with China, North Korea and Iran. “Thanks to this treaty, we’ll see how relations flourish between a great Russia, a key power among humanity today, and Venezuela in the coming years,” Maduro said during talks at the Kremlin. Putin called the deal a “good base” for future cooperation, though neither leader disclosed specific terms. (MT/AFP, 05.07.25)
• Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva offered Putin wide-ranging cooperation on nuclear energy, defense and space during his first visit to Moscow in 15 years, the Kremlin said May 9. “My visit today is aimed at strengthening the building of our strategic partnership,” Lula told Putin in the Kremlin, according to a Russian-language readout. (MT/AFP, 05.09.25)
• Putin wished newly-elected Pope Leo XIV "success" on May 8, saying he hoped the American pontiff would engage in "constructive dialogue" with the Kremlin. "I am confident that the constructive dialogue and cooperation established between Russia and the Vatican will continue to develop on the basis of the Christian values that unite us," Putin said in a message published by the Kremlin. (MT/AFP, 05.08.25)
• The International Fencing Federation (FIE) has cleared Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete as neutrals in upcoming European and world team championships, state media reported May 7. (MT/AFP, 05.07.25)

Ukraine:

• On April 30, the Trump administration finally secured an agreement with Ukraine, giving the U.S. preferential access to the country’s contested natural resources—such as aluminum, graphite, oil and natural gas. Ukraine’s parliament on May 8 overwhelmingly voted to ratify the deal. Of 347 Ukrainian lawmakers present, 338 voted to support the law, including some from opposition parties, and nine abstained. The agreement establishes the "United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund” that Washington and Kyiv will pay into to fund development, infrastructure and natural resource extraction projects in Ukraine, according to ISW. The text of the agreement made no mention of the security guarantees that Kyiv had long sought, though part of the fund’s income will go to reimbursing the U.S. for future military assistance to Ukraine, according to Bloomberg. Neither does the deal cover Ukraine’s nuclear power producer Energoatom, which will remain in Ukrainian state ownership, Bloomberg reported. Accessing Ukraine’s minerals won’t be easy, according to experts interviewed by the U.S. press. For one, maps showing trillions of dollars of mineral deposits scattered across Ukraine are based largely on outdated studies, and proper surveys could take several years to complete, according to experts interviewed by Wall Street Journal and New York Times. Also, somewhere between 20% and 40% of Ukraine’s deposits are critical minerals located in areas of the country currently under Russian occupation, George Ingall of Benchmark Minerals Intelligence told Wall Street Journal. (RM, 05.04.25)
• Despite the reverence for Ukraine's war dead, they, too, have become an income stream for corrupt officials. Some funeral homes pay officials to win large contracts for transporting or burying dead troops, according to officials with knowledge of the transactions. Funeral homes overcharge councils for soldiers' headstones and coffins and split the difference with officials, police say. In Poltava, a city in eastern Ukraine, local government official Serhii Nechyporenko needed someone to help transport some of the dead from near the front lines to be buried in their home region. He turned to funeral director Alexander Burgardt. Prosecutors say that at a meeting at a city cemetery, the two men thrashed out their deal: Burgardt would get the contract for bringing corpses back from the morgue, and Nechyporenko, then deputy head of funeral services, would receive a share of the fees Burgardt received. Later that month, they met again at the same cemetery, where Burgardt handed Nechyporenko his cut, prosecutors say. (Wall Street Journal, 05.09.25)
• The portion of Ukraine’s foreign reserves held in euros has surged as the European Union ratchets up support for the war-torn nation. Data from the National Bank of Ukraine shows that while the share of its international holdings denominated in euros remains low, the amount has more than quadrupled since the start of November—reaching 10% in early May. Over the same period, U.S. dollar holdings fell by 6 percentage points to 82.9%, according to the statistics. (Bloomberg, 05.09.25)
• Ukraine has arrested two people who it said were part of a Hungarian spy ring gathering intelligence for a possible military incursion—the first time Kyiv has accused an EU neighbor of plotting against its interests. The Ukrainian state security service (SBU) said May 9 that it had uncovered a spy network run by Hungary’s military intelligence to gather sensitive information on its defenses and population in its western Zakarpattia region, home to about 80,000 Hungarian speakers. (Financial Times, 05.09.25)
• Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigation said a battalion commander of one of the military units stationed in Donetsk Oblast was notified of suspicion of abuse of office, since he organized illegal payments to his subordinate, who was allegedly in the combat zone. (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.06.25)
• The Trump administration earlier this year urged the Ukrainian government to accept an unspecified number of U.S. deportees who are citizens of other countries, according to documents reviewed by The Washington Post, an extraordinary request of a nation at war and dependent on American military and financial support for its survival. (World Politics, 05.07.23)
• "I found it sort of beneath America in the way that took place," Biden said of the explosive White House meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy in February. (BBC, 05.07.25)
• Zelenskyy thanked the OECD for its unwavering support for Ukraine. “We value the OECD's high assessment of Ukraine's development, presented today in both the economic and anti-corruption surveys of our state. It serves as a roadmap for the reforms needed and sends a positive signal to international investors,” he said. During the meeting with Zelenskyy, Mathias Cormann acknowledged Ukraine’s significant progress in reforms, particularly in anti-corruption efforts—an essential step toward the country’s integration into the OECD. He affirmed the organization’s readiness to continue providing the necessary technical assistance to support Ukraine on this path. (Ukrinform, 05.06.25, and Interfax-Ukraine, 05.06.25)
• Ukraine wants to fully meet the criteria for joining the European Union by 2027. Currently, the country is adhering to the timings set for itself. This was stated by the Vice Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine, Olga Stefanishyna, reports RBC-Ukraine. (RBC.ua, 05.09.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• In the Estonian city of Narva, a banner depicting Vladimir Putin as Adolf Hitler has been hung on the wall of a medieval castle overlooking the river that marks the country’s border with Russia. (Meduza, 05.09.25)
• Lithuania's parliament, the Seimas, has voted to withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty, the international convention banning antipersonnel mines, Delfi reports. (Meduza, 05.08.25)
• Putin handed Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev an award sheet for awarding his father the title Hero of the Soviet Union during the May 9 Victory Day celebrations, the Kremlin press service reported. (Kommersant, 05.09.25)
• Kazakhstan held a grand military parade May 7 to mark the 80th anniversary of the Allied victory in World War II and Defenders of the Fatherland Day. This year’s anniversary parade took place ahead of time to accommodate Tokayev’s planned attendance at the May 9 landmark celebrations in Moscow. (MT/AFP, 05.08.25)
• The younger brother of imprisoned Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty journalist Ihar Losik was detained in April and remains in jail in his native Belarus on extremism charges related to Russia's war against Ukraine, according to a rights group and RFE/RL sources. (RFE/RL, 05.09.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Former Trump Russia advisor Fiona Hill warned that Trump's escalating attacks on global institutions and domestic checks and balances are fraying alliances and eroding the image of Washington on the world stage. "The United States has lost its credibility globally," she said. "A lot of this is irrevocable. It'll take a very long time for the U.S. to rebuild what it has lost." The lesson, she added, is stark: "What you build over a century can be dismantled in 100 days." (RFE/RL, 05.09.25)

Footnotes

1. The consequences for international stability of the re-emergence of spheres of influence as legitimate or inevitable foreign policy objectives of powerful states were highlighted by Harvard Kennedy School Professor Graham Allison in 2020, and again more recently by Harvard Kennedy School alumna and current Professor of International Politics at the Tufts Fletcher School Monica Duffy Toft, both in Foreign Affairs magazine.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Yuri Kochetkov/Pool Photo via AP.