3 Things to Know

1. In the week preceding May 20, 2025, Russian forces gained 55 square miles of Ukrainian territory (just over 2 Manhattan islands), a notable gain over its 33-square mile advance over each of the previous two weeks, according to the May 21, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s armed forces lost 1 square mile of their control in Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions, leaving them with a total of 9 square miles, according to the card, which analyzes ISW data. In the past month (April 22–May 20, 2025), Russia gained 135 square miles, according to that data. According to RM’s analysis of data posted by Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group, the total amount of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia increased by 0.9% so far this year. See Table 1 for more estimates.*
2. Donald Trump’s May 19 call with Vladimir Putin yielded no breakthrough on the Russia-Ukraine war, with Putin rejecting an unconditional full ceasefire again and Trump asserting that, going forward, Moscow and Kyiv will need to negotiate conditions directly, perhaps in the Vatican, in what Financial Times reporters interpreted as a signal that Washington is “stepping back from a role as a mediator.” While the White House did not explicitly confirm Trump’s disengagement publicly, the U.S. leader did observe after the call with Putin: “This isn’t my war.” When briefing European leaders by phone on the outcome of his conversation with Putin, Trump said that Putin isn’t ready to end the war in Ukraine because he thinks he is winning, according to the Wall Street Journal.¹ Since the call, Russia has a rejected the Vatican as a venue for further talks while advancing to “final stages” the "memorandum" on its terms for a future peace treaty, which Putin promised to come up with during his call with Trump and which his diplomats intend to discuss with their Ukrainian counterparts in Istanbul.
3. Ukrainians should not bet on some kind of “white swan” event that would “bring peace to Ukraine in the borders of 1991 or 2022,” ex-commander of Ukraine’s armed forces Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi said at a recent public forum in Ukraine. Ukraine needs to transform the nature of the current war from that of attrition to one that minimizes the expenditure of Ukraine’s human and economic resources, he said. Given the “huge deficit of human resources and a catastrophic economic situation,” “we can only talk about a high-tech war for survival, where a minimum of human resources, a minimum of economic means are used to achieve maximum benefit,” according to Zaluzhnyi.² 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• The Trump administration is weighing a withdrawal of thousands of American troops from South Korea. An option being developed by the Pentagon is to pull out roughly 4,500 troops and move them to other locations in the Indo-Pacific region, including to Guam. (Wall Street Journal, 05.23.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Ukraine and Russia began their largest exchange of prisoners of war on May 23 that had been agreed during their first peace talks in three years, according to Ukrainian officials. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators last week agreed to exchange 2,000 prisoners during their meeting in Istanbul. U.S. President Donald Trump earlier on May 23 posted a message on Truth Social, congratulating “both sides on this negotiation” and saying that the “swap was just completed,” although Kyiv officials said that was not the case. “This could lead to something big???” he added. As of May 23, Russia has received 270 prisoners of war and 120 civilians returned from Ukrainian captivity, the country’s Defense Ministry said. In exchange, Moscow transferred 270 Ukrainian soldiers and 120 civilians to Kyiv as part of a prisoner swap. The Russians are currently in Belarus and will soon be brought back to Russia. (Meduza, 05.23.25, Financial Times, 05.23.25)
  • Thousands of Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilians are still being held in captivity in Russian-occupied areas, according to international observers, often held incommunicado for months or years. Torture is reportedly common with Russian captors showing less interest in military intelligence from their captives. Instead, survivors and experts say Ukrainian prisoners face punishment for not accepting Russian rule. (RFE/RL, 05.22.25)
  • Andriy Kostin, the prosecutor general of Ukraine, has estimated that some 90% of Ukrainians in Russian captivity reported having been subjected to torture, rape, threats of sexual violence or other forms of ill treatment. (New York Times, 05.23.25)
• As a result of Ukrainian firings at Russian territory since the beginning of the war, 620 civilians have died, the Investigative Committee of Russia calculated. (Istories, 05.20.25)
• Finance ministers and central bankers of the Group of 7 nations continued to blame Russia for the war in Ukraine, despite some initial resistance from the United States, and pledged to provide resources to help Kyiv sustain its economy and pay for its reconstruction. Officials also discussed tightening the price cap that they enacted on Russian oil exports as a measure to further squeeze Russia's economy. (New York Times, 05.22.25)
• A bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced a resolution on May 20 calling for Russia to return all the Ukrainian children it has deported before finalizing any peace agreement to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. ISW continues to assess that there can be no true peace in Ukraine without the safe return of the children that Russia has abducted. (ISW, 05.22.25)
• The Trump administration has devised plans to spend up to $250 million earmarked for foreign assistance to fund instead the removal and return of people from active conflict zones, including 700,000 Ukrainian and Haitian migrants who fled to the United States amid extreme, ongoing violence back home, according to draft internal documents reviewed by The Washington Post. (The Washington Post, 05.20.25)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the week preceding May 20, 2025, Russian forces gained 55 square miles of Ukrainian territory (just over 2 Manhattan islands), a notable gain over its 33-square mile advance over each of the previous two weeks, according to the May 21, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In past month (April 22–May 20, 2025): Russia gained 135 square miles, according to the card. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s armed forces lost 1 square mile of their control in Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions, leaving them with a total of 9 square miles, according to the card. (RM, 05.22.25)³
• The pace of Russia’s main advance in eastern Ukraine has halved since the start of the year compared with a similar period through the end of 2024, according to data compiled by the DeepState open-source mapping service. Russia’s military has advanced on the order of about 41 square kilometers per week (16 square miles) into Ukrainian territory on average, down from about 125 square kilometers the data tracked by Bloomberg showed. Public data also show that Russia has seized less than a quarter percent – 0.15% – of Ukrainian territory since January. At Russia’s current rate of advance in the Donetsk alone, a region a bit smaller than Belgium, it would take several years to fully occupy it, according to Bloomberg calculations based on DeepState data. (Bloomberg, 05.21.25)⁴ According to RM’s analysis of data posted by Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group, the total amount of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia increased by 0.92% in the period from Jan. 1, 2025 to May 22, 2025. If one were to measure changes in Russia’s control of Ukrainian territory in the period from Jan. 1, 2024, to May 22, 2025, then that gain would be 4.01%. See Table 1 below.
• Over the past 16 months, Moscow took 1,827 square miles of Ukraine, an area smaller than Delaware, according to data from the Institute for the Study of War measuring up to April 1. Over that period, the U.S. government estimates, Russia lost more than 400,000 troops to death or injury—a high cost for wresting control of less than 1% of Ukrainian territory. (NYT, 05.15.25)

Saturday, May 17, 2025

• A Russian drone attack killed at least nine people after hitting a shuttle bus carrying civilians in the Sumy region in northeastern Ukraine. Attacks in other parts of the country killed at least five more civilians, according to the Ukrainian authorities. (New York Times, 05.18.25)
• On May 17, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Lobkove, Berezivka and Oleksandropol. (RM, 05.23.25)

Sunday, May 18, 2025

• Ukraine’s air force reported May 18 that Russia had carried out its largest drone attack of the war, launching 273 explosive-laden drones and decoys. Of those, 88 drones were intercepted while another 128 were taken down with electronic warfare systems. The attacks targeted the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, as well as areas of the eastern Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions. An explosion caused by a drone in the Kyiv region killed a 28-year-old woman and injured three others, including a 4-year-old child, authorities said. (Financial Times, 05.18.25)
• On May 18, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Nova Poltavka, Malynivka and Romanivka. (RM, 05.23.25)
• Last year, Kyiv said it produced more artillery guns than all NATO countries combined. The value of weapons Ukraine's defense industry can make has ballooned from $1 billion in 2022 to $35 billion over three years of war, even as Russia fires missiles at its factories. More than 40% of the weapons used on the front line with Russia are now made in Ukraine. In some areas, such as drones, unmanned ground systems, and electronic warfare, the figure is close to 100%. (WSJ, 05.18.25)

Monday, May 19, 2025

• Russia targeted Ukraine with at least 112 drones overnight May 18 into May 19, following the largest drone attack since 2022 on the previous night, when Russia fired 273 drones, killing a woman and injuring three, including a 4-year-old child. (Washington Post, 05.19.25)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry on May 19 claimed the capture of another village in Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region. The village of Marine, located less than 15 kilometers (9 miles) from the Russian border, sits on a highway linking the city of Sumy to the Russian town of Sudzha in the Kursk region. (MT/AFP, 05.20.25)
  • Russian forces are highly unlikely to be able to seize Sumy City in the near- to medium-term given Russia's demonstrated inability to rapidly seize even much smaller settlements in Ukraine in the past three years, according to ISW. (ISW, 05.21.25)
• On May 19, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Novodarivka, Zelene Pole, Yelizavetivka and Nove Pole. (RM, 05.23.25)
• On a call May 19, Trump told European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the war in Ukraine because he thinks he is winning, according to four senior European officials familiar with the conversation. In what the officials characterized as a rambling and at-times contradictory call, Trump also said he believed Putin ultimately desired peace, albeit on Russia’s terms, they said. The Europeans’ takeaway was that Trump didn’t believe that a near-term peace deal was in the offing and that the war was Europe’s problem, they said. (WSJ, 05.22.25)
• Ukraine’s expertise in defensive and drone warfare is inflicting staggering losses on Russia — estimated to be 1,500 troops killed or wounded a day. But some of the same sources who cite this figure think that Ukrainian casualties are running at roughly two-thirds the level of Russia’s. Given that Ukraine’s population is roughly a quarter that of Russia’s, Putin has reason to believe that he would ultimately prevail in a war of attrition. (Financial Times, 05.19.25)⁵

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

• On May 20, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Nova Poltavka and Novooleksandrivka. (RM, 05.23.25)

Wednesday, May 21, 2025

• Putin has visited Kursk for the first time since his forces expelled most of Ukraine’s forces from the frontline region  Putin appeared to make light of militarily seizing Ukraine’s Sumy region during the visit. A local official from the Glushkovsky district near the border with Ukraine told Putin: “Sumy should be ours.” “We cannot live like we’re on some kind of peninsula. There should be more of us [Russians]. At least in Sumy,” the official, Pavel Zolotarev, added. Zolotarev’s proposal came in response to Putin asking how far Russian forces should push Ukrainian troops from the border. Putin, smiling and gesturing to nearby officials, quipped that his appointment of Alexander Khinshtein as the Kursk region’s acting governor was part of that effort: “That’s why Alexander Yevseyevich was chosen. He also wants more of everything.” (MT/AFP, 05.21.25, Financial Times, 05.21.25)
• A Russian missile attack killed six servicemen in the Sumy region May 20 and injured at least 10 more during training exercises, the Ukrainian National Guard said May 21. A commander has been suspended and an internal investigation launched to determine why the soldiers had been exposed, the National Guard said. (Financial Times, 05.21.25)
• Moscow’s mayor said 18 drones had been intercepted flying toward the capital May 21. The Defense Ministry said 30 drones had been destroyed over eight regions in just a three-hour period in the afternoon. Three out of four Moscow airports, as well as several in neighboring regions, halted flights at various times during the day. While operations were resumed in the capital, Russia’s aviation agency warned passengers of “potential delays” as planes were arriving late due to the imposed limits. (Bloomberg, 05.21.25)
• Ukraine said its drones damaged a Russian semiconductor plant that it said is used to help produce fighter jets and missiles. Some drones reached the Bolkhov semiconductor plant in Russia’s Oryol region during the attack. (Bloomberg, 05.21.25)
• On May 21, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Yablunivka and Nadiivka. (RM, 05.23.25)
• Alexander Bastrykin, the head of Russia’s Investigative Committee, said that 20,000 people who received Russian citizenship have been sent to the front lines in Ukraine. (Meduza, 05.21.25)

Thursday, May 22, 2025

• On May 22, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that 485 Ukrainian drones were shot down, 63 of them over the Moscow region. In total, 10 Russian regions were targeted in a barrage that lasted for some 36 hours, the authorities said. In Tula, one of the drones struck the roof of a multistory building. (New York Times, 05.22.25)
• On May 22, Russia launched 128 drones against Ukraine, damaging residential buildings in the Dnipro and Kharkiv regions. (New York Times, 05.22.25)
• On May 22, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Popov Yar, Dachne and Romanivka. (RM, 05.23.25)
• "I hope that there are no more people in this room who are still hoping for some miracle or wonder, for some white swan that will bring peace to Ukraine in the borders of 1991 or 2022, and that there will be great happiness after that. In my personal opinion, the enemy still has the resources, forces and means to strike our territory and attempt individual offensive actions," Valerii Zaluzhnyi said at the Forum "Export of Security: Ukrainian Weapons in the World." He noted that Russia has been waging a war of attrition since the end of 2023. Zaluzhnyi believes that Ukraine would be able to win such a war only through the complete destruction of Russia's very ability to wage this war. “This is a huge deficit of human resources and a catastrophic economic situation that we find ourselves in. We can only talk about a high-tech war for survival, where a minimum of human resources, a minimum of economic means are used to achieve maximum benefit. Ukraine is not capable of waging a war that would be different from such a war under the current demographic and economic conditions and there is no point in even thinking about it," he said. (RBC.UA, 05.22.25)
• Putin has announced that Russia has decided to create a "buffer zone" along the border with Ukraine for an 8^th time. He said this at a meeting with members of the government. "I have already said that a decision was made to create the necessary security buffer zone along the border. Our armed forces are currently solving this problem, actively suppressing enemy firing points, the work is underway," Putin said. (Istories, 05.22.25)

Friday, May 23, 2025

• Russia’s Defense Ministry said early May 23 that it had downed more than 100 Ukrainian drones in a third consecutive night of air attacks across the country and annexed Crimea, as regional officials reported several injuries in the strikes. Two dozen drones were destroyed over the Moscow region, the most of any region, according to the military. Crimea, which Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014, saw the second-highest number, with 22 drones reportedly shot down. (MT/AFP, 05.23.25)
  • Moscow is awaiting an international reaction to "Ukraine's unprecedented attack on Russian civilian targets," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. (Status-6 X account, 05.23.25)
• On May 23, two were killed in Russian missile strikes on Odesa and Chuhuiv in Ukraine. (Meduza, 05.23.25)
• The Ukrainian military struck PJSC Energia in the city of Yelets in the Lipetsk region of the Russian Federation. This was reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine May 23. The enterprise is the only manufacturer of batteries for planning and correction modules installed on aviation bombs. (Korrespondent.net, 05.23.25)
• Russia launched a missile attack on a civilian port in Odesa. As a result of the attack, one worker was killed and eight were wounded. (RBC.ua, 05.23.25)
• For months, Russia has ramped up its deployment of fiber-optic drones, which vastly outnumbered Ukraine's drones on the battlefield in Kursk, giving Russia a key advantage. Of Ukraine's roughly 500 drone manufacturers, at least 15 are now developing fiber-optic drones. (Washington Post, 05.23.25)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• Finance ministers from the Group of Seven industrialized nations have agreed to continue backing Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion, German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said on the sidelines of a G-7 meeting in Canada. (Bloomberg, 05.22.25)
• The United States has authorized the transfer of decommissioned Abrams tanks from Australia to Ukraine. According to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), the first shipment—comprising 49 tanks—was recently prepared for sea transport. (Meduza, 05.19.25)
  • Europeans don’t believe the Trump administration will stop U.S. weapons exports as long as Europe or Ukraine pays for them. (WSJ, 05.22.25)
• Italian media reported in mid-May 2025 that Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto announced that Italy approved an eleventh military aid package for Ukraine, which will include one SAMP/T air and missile defense system, 400 M-113 armored personnel carriers, and ammunition. (ISW, 05.20.25)
• Ukraine has proposed that EU countries begin contributing to the funding of its armed forces starting in 2026, Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said following a meeting of G-7 finance officials. (Meduza, 05.23.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Monday, May 19, 2025

• Germany is working with allies on a new package of sanctions aimed at pressuring Russia to agree to a ceasefire in its war with Ukraine this week. New EU sanctions are expected to target the Russian financial sector. (Bloomberg, 05.19.25)
• Polish customs officials seized five metric tons of tires for civilian Boeing aircraft en route to Russia via Belarus, the country's National Revenue Administration (NRA) said May 19. (MT/AFP, 05.19.25)
• Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office has declared Amnesty International an “undesirable” organization, according to a statement released May 19. (Meduza, 05.19.25)

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

• The European Union imposed sanctions on three vessels that helped move gas cargoes from Russia’s Yamal LNG project, further squeezing Moscow’s energy revenues. The North Moon, North Ocean and North Light were included in the 17th package of sanctions adopted by the European Council on May 20. The vessels are managed by Tokyo-based Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd., a leading operator of LNG carriers, according to shipping database Equasis. The surprise sanctions on vessels from an established shipping company highlight the EU’s mounting efforts to push Moscow into a peace deal with Ukraine, addressing workarounds to previously imposed restrictions. (Bloomberg, 05.20.25)
• U.S. Secretary of state Marco Rubio has insisted the U.S. will impose fresh sanctions on Russia if there is no progress on a peace deal with Ukraine, and denied that Washington was tempering its military support for Kyiv. Testifying before the Senate foreign relations committee on May 20, Rubio was asked if he would support a bill being pushed by Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham that would impose draconian new sanctions on Russia. The bill, which is designed to make it harder for Russia to finance its war, would impose a 500% tariff on imports from countries that buy its oil and gas, among other provisions. “If in fact it is clear that the Russians are not interested in a peace deal and they want to keep fighting a war, it may very well come to that point,” Rubio said. (Financial Times, 05.20.25)
• The U.K. sanctioned an English accountant for allegedly helping Russia expand the fleet of tankers it uses to covertly ship crude around the globe. The British government added John Michael Ormerod, a U.K. national, two Russian ship captains, 18 vessels and 46 financial institutions to its sanctions list, according to a notice May 20. It’s part of a broader effort by the U.K. and European Union to clamp down on Russia’s use of a so-called shadow fleet to evade sanctions against its oil sector. (Bloomberg, 05.20.25)

Wednesday, May 21, 2025

• About 70% of Italian companies operating in Russia did not leave the country following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the president of the Italian-Russian Chamber of Commerce told the RBC news website May 21. Many Italian firms hesitated to make quick decisions following the invasion, Vincenzo Trani, who is also the founder of the car-sharing company Delimobil, told RBC. (MT/AFP, 05.21.25)

Thursday, May 22, 2025

• Senate Republicans are warning Russia that they’re prepared to pass punishing sanctions if Putin refuses to engage in ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine or breaches an eventual agreement. The Trump administration has been resistant to sanctions, arguing that new economic penalties risk pushing Russia away from talks. But key Republicans signaled May 22 that they could move quickly on legislation that has the support of more than 80 senators. “If Russia’s not willing to engage in serious diplomacy, the Senate will work with the Trump administration to consider additional sanctions to force Putin to start negotiating,” Senate Republican leader John Thune said. (Bloomberg, 05.22.25)
• The European Union has taken a major step toward ending imports of Russian and Belarusian nitrogen fertilizers, approving phased duties designed to make purchases economically unviable within three years. (RFE/RL, 05.22.25)
• The Bank of Georgia has restricted Russian cardholders from making luxury goods purchases of more than 300 euros. (MT/AFP, 05.22.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Saturday, May 17, 2025

• Trump has said he will speak to Putin and Zelenskyy on May 19 to end the “bloodbath” between their two countries, after the Russian president skipped peace talks he had initiated with his Ukrainian counterpart. (Financial Times, 05.18.25)
• On May 17, Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State, had called Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister. Rubio welcomed the prisoner exchange and reiterated the Trump administration’s message that “the United States is committed to achieving a lasting end to the Russia-Ukraine war,” the state department said in a statement. (Financial Times, 05.18.25)
• Russia is preparing its list of conditions for a possible ceasefire with Ukraine and will exchange it with Kyiv privately, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said May 17. (Bloomberg, 05.19.25        

Monday, May 19, 2025

• Prior to the Trump-Putin call on May 19, Vice President JD Vance acknowledged that Russia and Ukraine appeared to be at “a bit of impasse” and that the president’s patience with efforts to help negotiate an end to the three-year war may be wearing thin. “We’re more than open to walking away,” Vance told reporters aboard Air Force Two as he returned from Pope Leo XIV’s inaugural Mass in Rome. “The United States is not going to spin its wheels here. We want to see outcomes.” (Politico, 05.19.25)
• Trump and Zelenskyy had a brief call May 19 morning, and Trump asked his Ukrainian counterpart what he should tell Putin, sources said. Zelenskyy was happy Trump called him to consult. He requested that Trump demand an immediate ceasefire, threaten new sanctions against Russia and offer no concessions to Putin without consulting Ukraine, the sources say. (Axios, 05.19.25)
• Trump’s May 19 call with Putin yielded no breakthrough on the Russia-Ukraine war, with Putin rejecting an unconditional full ceasefire again and Trump asserting that, going forward, Moscow and Kyiv will need to negotiate conditions directly, perhaps, in the Vatican in what Financial Times reporters interpreted as a signal that Washington is “stepping back from a role as a mediator.” Putin was first to offer his take on the call, which lasted for more than two hours, telling Russian media that Russia has stated readiness to work with the Ukrainian side on a memorandum regarding a possible a peace treaty “with a number of positions to be defined.” These positions, according to the Kremlin’s account of Putin’s remarks to the media included “the principles for settlement, the timeframe for a possible peace deal, and… a potential temporary ceasefire, should the necessary agreements be reached.” Trump’s account of the call appeared to be more upbeat than Putin’s. “The tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent,” the U.S. leader wrote on Truth Social. He also wrote that “Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War” and that “the conditions for that will be negotiated between the two parties, as it can only be, because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of.” Trump’s remarks, in the view of Financial Times’ reporting team, indicate the Trump administration is done trying to mediate between Moscow and Kyiv. (RM, 05.19.25)
  • “This isn’t my war,” Trump told reporters May 19 after his Putin call. “We got ourselves entangled in something we shouldn’t have been involved in.” (Wall Street Journal, 05.22.25)
  • Despite Trump's exhortations for months that the fighting must stop immediately, in the course of the May 19 phone call, Putin managed to add a new delaying element to the process: the need for each side to draft a "memorandum" on the terms of a future peace treaty, a move that may leave Ukraine vulnerable to Russian aggression for months or even years. "There is no time frame and can be none," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists May 20, after Russia once more succeeded in deflecting pressure for an unconditional ceasefire before peace talks — initially a U.S. proposal that was backed by European leaders and now dropped by Trump. (Washington Post, 05.20.25)
  • "The recent resumption of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine, despite the differences in their positions, is the first step toward peace," Wang Yi said on the Chinese Foreign Ministry's website. "China hopes that each side will continue to demonstrate its commitment to a political solution to the crisis through sustained dialogue, and that a just, lasting and binding peace agreement will be concluded." (TASS, 05.19.25)
  • The Trump team's faulty command of the facts has at times been painfully obvious. In a call May 19, Trump reportedly told a group of European leaders that Ukraine and Russia could begin ceasefire talks “immediately.” Zelenskyy, who was also on the call, reminded him that these talks had begun a few days earlier, on May 16, in Istanbul. Trump’s apparent lapse in memory led to a moment of “puzzled silence” on the line, according to Axios, which reported the exchange. (Time, 05.22.25)

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

• Trump thinks Russia will likely walk away from Ukraine peace talks if the U.S. threatens more sanctions, according to Rubio. “We can’t end the war without talking to Mr. Putin,” Rubio said during a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing May 21, when asked three times if the Russian leader is a war criminal. “War crimes have been committed, no doubt,” he said. “And who is responsible for that? There will be time and place for that accountability, but right now the job is to end the war.” “If you start threatening sanctions, the Russians will stop talking,” Rubio told a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing May 20. Russia has pledged to send the U.S. “terms for what they would require in order to reach a ceasefire” with Ukraine following this week’s phone call between Trump and Putin, Rubio said. Rubio insisted Trump had offered no concessions to Russia. (Bloomberg, 05.20.25, Politico, 05.20.25, MT/AFP, 05.20.25, Bloomberg, 05.21.25)
• Russian Security Council Secretary Dmitry Medvedev claimed during the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum on May 20 that there are currently no Ukrainian officials with the authority to conclude a peace treaty with Russia and that Russia may need to consult Ukraine’s Constitution to identify authorized negotiation partners. (ISW, 05.20.25)

Wednesday, May 21, 2025

• Trump said he wanted to proceed quickly with lower-level talks between Russia and Ukraine at the Vatican. The talks in the Vatican are expected to start in mid-June. (Wall Street Journal, 05.22.25)

Thursday, May 22, 2025

• Russian officials have no plans for Putin to travel to the Vatican or anywhere else for talks now, and they’re focused instead on technical-level negotiations that began in Istanbul last week, according to people with knowledge of the situation, asking not to be identified discussing internal matters. The Kremlin expects those negotiations to resume in Istanbul, one of the people said. It’s “not very realistic” for the Vatican to host negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, Lavrov told a conference in Moscow. Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Kremlin had not agreed to hold peace talks with Ukraine at the Vatican. He also denied Finnish President Alexander Stubb’s suggestion that “technical talks” might take place at the Vatican as early as next week. (Bloomberg, 05.22.25. MT/AFP, 05.22.25)⁶
• U.S. officials are in contact with the Ukrainians to ensure the talks can take place, the people said. They’re also signaling to Russian counterparts that they’d prefer to avoid participation in the meeting by hardliners such as Putin’s aide Vladimir Medinsky, who led Moscow’s delegation in Istanbul, the people added. (Bloomberg, 05.22.25)

Friday, May 23, 2025

• On May 23, Lavrov said Moscow was “in the advanced stages” of preparing a memorandum on the peace talks which would be discussed with Ukraine at a follow-up meeting after Istanbul. Speaking at a conference devoted to “historic southern Russian lands,” including four Ukrainian regions Putin laid a claim to in 2022, Lavrov implied that Russia did not intend to make any concessions in the memorandum. (Financial Times, 05.23.25)
• “As Europe runs low on weapons, Ukraine on fighters, the U.S. on patience, and transatlantic unity frays, President Zelenskyy will likely be forced to accept a negotiated settlement with Russia sometime this year that freezes the fighting but stops short of a comprehensive peace agreement,” JPMorgan’s newly-established Center for Geopolitics predicts. (RM, 05.23.25) 

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said the alliance needs to present clear steps to meet a defense spending target of 5% of economic output with a focus on “hard defense capabilities,” as member-states work to put together a deal that meets President Donald Trump’s demand. (Bloomberg, 05.22.25)
• Chancellor Friedrich Merz for the first time publicly advocated spending up to 5% of the German economy on defense. Merz also said Germany’s military is prepared to defend the Baltic region against “any threat” as he arrived in Lithuania to mark the establishment of a battle tank brigade aimed at bolstering NATO’s eastern flank. Merz and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius took part in the first ceremonial roll call of the Panzer Brigade 45 in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius. Germany aims to complete the establishment of the brigade by the end of 2027, with as many as 5,000 personnel on the ground. (Bloomberg, 05.22.25, Bloomberg, 05.21.25)
• The Netherlands estimates it will need to boost defense spending by as much as €19 billion ($21.4 billion) a year to meet the expected new target for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.. (Bloomberg, 05.20.25)
• The Latvian government is in talks with German weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall AG on producing defense equipment domestically as part of an effort by Baltic nations to bolster their military capabilities in the face of Russian aggression. (Bloomberg, 05.19.25)
• The New York Times reported on May 19 that recent satellite imagery, which NATO officials confirmed, shows that Russia is building bases and military infrastructure near the Finnish and Estonian borders. (ISW, 05.19.25)
• EU capitals have agreed to launch a €150 billion loans-for-arms fund backed by the bloc’s shared budget, in a landmark shift for Brussels spurred by Russia’s war against Ukraine and U.S. President Donald Trump’s demands for Europe to spend more on its own security. (Financial Times, 05.19.25)
• Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned on Thursday that the Baltic Sea is becoming “a new area of confrontation” with Russia, putting the country’s critical infrastructure increasingly at risk. His warning comes a day after Polish authorities said a sanctioned Russian ship was performing “suspicious maneuvers” near the power cable connecting Poland and Sweden (Bloomberg, 05.22.25)
• Poland intercepted and deterred a Russian bomber aircraft over the Baltic Sea late on Thursday, according to Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz. (Bloomberg, 05.23.25)
• Poland’s opposition candidate for president, Karol Nawrocki, said he won’t support NATO membership for Ukraine and is “more critical” than the incumbent toward Kyiv, as he seeks to court far-right voters ahead of a runoff in a closely-contested election. (Bloomberg, 05.22.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• According to the Russian government, Moscow has signed a new memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the People’s Republic of China to place a nuclear power plant on the Moon—in what is part of a larger plan to establish a permanent Sino-Russian presence on the lunar surface by 2036. (National Interest, 05.18.25)

Missile defense:

• The Kremlin said Wednesday that Trump’s proposed “Golden Dome” missile shield was a “sovereign matter” for the United States, softening its tone after earlier criticism that the plan could destabilize global security. Trump, who ordered the project a week after his inauguration in January, said the system would deploy missile interceptors in space to defend against ballistic and hypersonic threats. Congress is seeking $25 billion to begin work on the system and Trump said it could cost $175 billion overall (MT/AFP, 05.21.25, Bloomberg, 05.20.25)

Nuclear arms

• Russia is in the late stages of a multi-decade-long modernization program to replace all of its Soviet-era nuclear-capable systems with newer versions, according to “Russian nuclear weapons-2025” published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The report estimates that Russia now possesses approximately 4,309 nuclear warheads. Although the number of Russian strategic launchers is not expected to change significantly in the foreseeable future, the number of warheads assigned to them might increase, according to the report by Hans Kristensen and his co-authors. The significant increase in non-strategic nuclear weapons that the Pentagon predicted five years ago has so far not materialized. A nuclear weapons storage site in Belarus appears to be nearing completion, according to the report. (BAS, May 2025)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Russian military intelligence has targeted thousands of surveillance cameras across Romania and other NATO countries bordering Ukraine in an attempt to monitor the flow of military and humanitarian aid to Kyiv, according to a recent investigation involving the United States and several European nations. The sweeping cyber-espionage campaign, attributed to the notorious GRU unit 26165, involved approximately 10,000 compromised IP addresses. (RFE/RL, 05.23.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

• More Senate Republicans are pushing for tough sanctions on Russian energy, and soon—but it's unclear if President Trump will ever share their zeal. Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) are up to 81 co-sponsors of their Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, they said Wednesday. The bill would impose 500% tariffs on U.S. imports from countries that buy Russian oil, gas and other goods. (Axios, 05.22.25)
• On Ukraine, the draft G-7 communique said the G-7 nations will look at options to ramp up sanctions on Russia if a ceasefire is not reached, though it did not address specific measures like lowering the price cap on Russian oil. Some members of the bloc, including the UK, have been pushing to revisit the cap amid a lack of progress on the talks. (Bloomberg, 05.22.25)
• The European Union is likely to propose a quota as the mechanism to enforce a bloc-wide import ban on Russian gas by the end of 2027, which officials say should provide companies with a legal basis to terminate long-term purchase contracts. (Bloomberg, 05.20.25)
• Russia detained the Liberian-flagged oil tanker Green Admire, which left the port of Sillamae and was sailing through Russian territorial waters, Estonian Public Broadcasting said Sunday, citing the Estonian Department of Transport. Estonia’s Department of Transport said that it was the first such incident and that it will direct ships arriving in and leaving Sillamae through the territorial waters of Estonia to avoid a recurrence, according to the report. (Bloomberg, 05.19.25)
• Russia released a Greek-owned oil tanker detained in its territorial waters on Sunday after leaving an Estonian port, Estonian public broadcaster ERR reported Tuesday. Estonia's foreign minister said Russia's action against the Green Admire was likely a response to a campaign by the Estonian navy to inspect tankers used to transport millions of barrels of Russian oil through the Baltic Sea. (MT/AFP, 05.20.25)
• German chancellor Friedrich Merz is “actively” backing a proposed EU ban on the Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russia to Germany in a bid to stop any U.S. and Russian efforts to reactivate the gas links. (Financial Times, 05.23.25)
• Russia's oil exports are becoming increasingly difficult to track as the tankers moving the barrels disappear from digital tracking systems. (Bloomberg, 05.20.25)
• Russia’s newest liquefied natural gas plant in the Arctic has begun using a second production line, even as the facility remains under stifling Western restrictions. Arctic LNG 2, a flagship project for the Kremlin, shut large-scale production in October as sanctions discouraged overseas demand and ice buildup made it difficult for ships to arrive. (Bloomberg, 05.20.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• Russia’s largest oil producer bought a giant Siberian rare-earth deposit, which may become an area of cooperation with the U.S. State-run Rosneft PJSC acquired closely held Vostok Engineering, which holds the license for Tomtor, on May 20, according to Russia’s national commercial registry. (Bloomberg, 05.21.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy adviser, told reporters that the Putin-Trump May 19 call was conducted in a tone of “mutual respect” and that Trump had expressed support for a normalization of relations between Washington and Moscow. Ushakov told journalists on May 19 that Trump and Putin also discussed a possible nine-for-nine U.S.–Russian prisoner exchange. (ISW, 05.19.25, FT, 05.20.25)
• Legal experts say the smuggling charge against Kseniia Petrova is unlikely to be upheld, though it could bolster deportation efforts. Attorneys for a Russian scientist who works at a Harvard Medical School laboratory and has been detained in Louisiana for failing to declare scientific specimens at Boston Logan International Airport, filed a motion Thursday aimed at safeguarding her freedom should she be released from custody. (Boston Globe, 05.23.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Economic growth in Russia slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year to 1.4% year-over-year from 4.5% in the previous quarter as high interest rates, persistent inflation and deep-seated labor shortages weigh on businesses and consumers. Low oil prices in recent months, meanwhile, have hit the Kremlin's state coffers where oil and gas make up around a third of revenues. (Wall Street Journal, 05.18.25)
• The Russian government plans to reduce its spending on the production of new aircraft and helicopters by 22% due to ongoing delays and challenges in their manufacture, the Kommersant business daily reported. If the bill is passed, the Aircraft and Helicopter Production federal project will see its funding for the current year cut by 22.4 billion rubles ($281.5 million) to 78.8 billion rubles ($990.3 million). (MT/AFP, 05.22.25)
• Russia’s largest shipping company Sovcomflot posted a loss of $393 million in Q1 of 2025, a dramatic reversal from the $216 million profit it reported during the same period last year. The losses exceeded total revenue, which fell 48% to $278.5 million. (MT/AFP, 05.23.25)
• Russian expatriates employed by Russian companies saw their average wages rise 14% over the past year, the Kommersant business newspaper reported Wednesday, citing a survey of freelance workers. (MT/AFP, 05.21.25)
• The average retail price of onions was up 87.2% year-over-year in May, reaching 72.3 rubles ($0.91) per kilogram, Kommersant reported, citing data from state statistics agency Rosstat. White cabbage rose by 56.8% over the same period, with prices hitting 75.2 rubles ($0.94) per kilogram. (MT/AFP, 05.22.25)
• Rosstat has stopped publishing exact indicators of natural population movement, demographer Alexey Raksha noted. Raksha explains that this decision coincided with a historical anti-record: in March, the average daily birth rate was 3,012 children, which was the minimum for the entire period of regular records (approximately 200 years). At the same time, Rosstat reported a “birth rate increase of 3.2%” in March, comparing the absolute number of newborns with the shorter February and omitting the difference in the number of days and working dates. (The Bell, 05.18.25)
• Russian authorities are renewing their years-long narrative rejecting the legality of the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, possibly to deny Ukrainian and Belarusian sovereignty and independence in the future. The Soviet Union legally still exists, since the procedure for its dissolution in 1991 was violated, so the Ukrainian crisis is an internal issue. This was stated by Anton Kobyakov, Adviser to the President of Russia, following the results of the International Legal Forum in St. Petersburg. Russian State Duma Committee on the Protection of the Family, Fatherhood, Motherhood, and Childhood Head and member of the Communist Party Central Committee Nina Ostanina stated on May 22 that Duma deputies are ready to raise the issue of the alleged illegality of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. (ISW, 05.22.25, EA Daily, 05.22.25)
• Russian authorities on Tuesday opened a criminal case against Galina Timchenko, the founder and publisher of the exiled news website Meduza, on charges of organizing the activities of an “undesirable” organization. (MT/AFP, 05.20.25)
• Law enforcement officials searched the homes of several relatives of exiled Pussy Riot members as part of a criminal investigation into the alleged distribution of “war fakes,” the protest group said Thursday. (MT/AFP, 05.22.25)
• Russian law enforcement authorities issued an arrest warrant for Sargylana Kondakova, a Yukaghir activist and co-founder of the exiled anti-war group Free Yakutia Foundation, media reported Wednesday. (MT/AFP, 05.21.25)
• A judge in St. Petersburg ordered the century-old bookstore Podpisniye Izdaniya to pay a fine of 800,000 rubles ($10,000) after it was found to promote “LGBT propaganda,” local media reported Wednesday. (MT/AFP, 05.21.25)
• In April 2025, Russia’s protest potential remains stable at 2017 levels, with 16% of respondents considering economic protests quite possible and 13% willing to participate—the same as December 2024. Political protest willingness also remained low: 11% to 22% said they would participate between September 2023 and April 2025. Meanwhile, public opinion is becoming more divided on how to address anti-war protests. While 57% supported free speech in August 2022, by April 2025 this dropped to 45%, with 42% now favoring restrictions on anti-war demonstrations. (Levada, 05.21.25)
• Some 66% of Russians believe migrants increase crime rates, down from 71% in 2012 but still significantly higher than the 1996 low of 54%, according to a Levada Center survey. The share rejecting this view rose to 19%, reflecting gradual shifts in attitudes despite persistent xenophobic sentiments. The poll highlights ongoing interethnic tensions as Russia's migrant population grows. (Levada, 05.16.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed Colonel General Valery Solodchuk's recent appointment as Central Military District (CMD) commander on May 20. Solodchuk most recently served as commander of the Kursk Grouping of Forces and led Russia's efforts to eliminate the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast. Solodchuk is replacing Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev, who reportedly recently replaced General Oleg Salyukov as Russian Ground Forces Commander. (ISW, 05.20.25)
  • Some Russian pro-war bloggers spoke negatively about Mordvichev's tactics, which killed thousands of Russian soldiers. A soldier from the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces and Z-blogger Andrey Morozov (Murz) reported 16 thousand irreparable losses during the storming of Avdiivka. After that, he committed suicide— the military command forced him to delete the post, he explained in his suicide note. (Istories, 05.22.25)
• At the end of 2024, two lists of alleged Russian deserters appeared on the Internet. "Important Stories" verified this data and found out that at least 49 thousand servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces were declared deserters and those who went AWOL. (Istories, 05.20.25)
• Russian law enforcement authorities arrested two of 10 former prison inmates who deserted from a military training ground in the southern Rostov region, the local media reported, citing anonymous military investigation sources. (MT/AFP, 05.21.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russia’s Federal Security Service said Monday that it arrested nine people on suspicion of planning attacks on police officers in the southern Stavropol region during Victory Day celebrations earlier this month. (MT/AFP, 05.19.25)
• FSB said Tuesday that it seized more than 1.8 metric tons of cocaine bound for the European Union, with an estimated street value of 6 billion rubles ($74.5 million). (MT/AFP, 05.20.25)
• Andriy Portnov, an adviser to former pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, was reportedly shot dead on May 21 just outside of Madrid after dropping off his children at school. A source from the Spanish National Police confirmed to Schemes, an investigative project of RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service, that the 52-year-old who served as deputy head of the Ukrainian presidential office from 2010 to 2014 was killed in the shooting. (RFE/RL, 05.21.25)
• A former deputy governor in the southern Krasnodar region was arrested Thursday, just a day after being publicly scolded and fired over delays in public construction projects, Russian media reported, citing anonymous law enforcement sources. Krasnodar region Governor Veniamin Kondratyev on Wednesday berated his deputy Alexander Nesterenko. (MT/AFP, 05.22.25)
• Russian investigators indicted billionaire Vadim Moshkovich on new bribery charges just days before his pre-trial detention was set to expire, the Kommersant business newspaper reported Tuesday. (MT/AFP, 05.20.25)
• Wildfires in Siberia’s Zabaikalsky region are approaching the city of Chita, where residents are reporting smoke and flames on the outskirts as firefighters battle strong winds and dry conditions. Chita, the regional capital with a population of 350,000, sits at the center of a federal-level state of emergency that has been in place for nearly a month. (MT/AFP, 05.20.25)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Brazilian investigators uncovered that Russian spies may be using authentic birth certificates planted by KGB operatives during the Soviet era, suggesting a decades-long sleeper operation. Forensic analysis revealed non-forged documents with fabricated identities, including one referencing a prior spy's alias. This 'generational espionage' tactic—unique in scale—allowed modern agents to build flawless Brazilian covers before deploying globally. While unconfirmed, it reflects Moscow's signature long-game spycraft, with one operative caught infiltrating the ICC's Ukraine war crimes probe." (New York Times, 05.22.25)
• The Kremlin on cast doubt on the results of Romania’s presidential election, where a pro-EU centrist defeated a far-right rival and self-professed Trump admirer. “The elections were strange, to say the least,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters when asked to comment on the vote. (MT/AFP, 05.19.25)
• Russian-born Pavel Durov said French intelligence asked him to ban Romanian right-wing comments on the Telegram messaging app he founded ahead of the weekend runoff presidential election in the Balkan country, an accusation the Directorate General for External Security (DGSE) rejected. (RFE/RL, 05.19.25)
  • French authorities rejected a request from Durov to visit the United States (MT/AFP, 05.20.25)
  • Telegram leapt to a $540 million profit last year (Financial Times, 05.22.25)
• An Italian court sentenced a Geneva-based Russian lawyer to 38 months in prison for his role in helping politically connected Russian businessman Arytom Uss flee house arrest from a Milan suburb two years ago. The verdict against Dmitry Chirakadze was handed down by a judge in Milan on May 22, according to Italian news reports. In closing arguments earlier this month, prosecutors had requested five years for Chirakadze, who has been held by Italian authorities since being arrested at Rome’s airport in June 2024. Chirakadze’s defense lawyer, Tatiana Della Marra, did not immediately respond to e-mail inquiries for comment. The verdict is the latest development in a twisting saga involving Uss, whose father previously was the governor of the sprawling Siberian region of Krasnoyarsk. Uss was arrested at the Milan airport in October 2022, a month after a U.S. grand jury secretly indicted him on smuggling charges. (RFE/RL, 05.22.25)
• More than 20 Russian-born residents of Serbia have been left stateless after giving up their Russian citizenship in order to receive Serbian passports, only to be denied them. (Meduza, 05.22.25)

Ukraine:

• The European Union has agreed to reinstate quotas on imports of several agricultural goods from Ukraine, adding to the challenges faced by its war-hit economy. (Bloomberg, 05.23.25)
• A third man has been charged in connection with arson attacks on properties linked to UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. The Metropolitan Police said that Petro Pochynok, a 34-year-old Ukrainian national, had been charged with conspiracy to commit arson with intent to endanger life. (Financial Times, 05.21.25)
• The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office have notified the former director of the state enterprise “Polygraph Combine” of suspicion of receiving an undue advantage in the form of copyrights to the design of security elements for foreign passports and ID cards (EUIPO registration), as well as laundering the income derived from their use. According to the investigation, the suspect demanded unlawful benefits from a French company that had originally developed these security elements. In return, the company was allowed to supply its products to the state enterprise. The bureau does not name the suspect, but the circumstances of the case indicate that it is Maksym Stepanov, who also headed the Ministry of Health. (NABU, 05.23.25, Interfax-Ukraine, Babel.ua, 05.23.25, 05.23.25)
• The commanders of a troubled French-equipped and -trained combat brigade have been accused by a major news magazine of conspiring to steal state funds at scale, and an Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) top general on Tuesday ordered an immediate investigation and promised “harsh reprisals” for anyone “profiting from soldiers’ blood.” According to an article published by Ukrainska Pravda magazine, one of Ukraine’s oldest and highest-standard news agencies, the recently appointed commander of the 155th Brigade, Col. Taras Maksymov, in March 2025 meetings with the unit’s drone team suggested soldier drone builders use their personal money to produce more and better drones, because the military was not providing sufficient funding. (Kyiv Post, 05.20.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Russia has struggled to supply weapons to Armenia due to the war in Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday, while also acknowledging growing tensions between Moscow and Yerevan. (MT/AFP, 05.21.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

V. Useful data

Table 1: 

Footnotes:

1. “Despite extensive battlefield losses in Ukraine, the Russian military is reconstituting and growing at a faster rate than most analysts had anticipated. In fact, the Russian army, which has borne the brunt of combat, is today larger than it was at the beginning of the war—despite suffering an estimated 790,000 casualties,” according to SACEUR Christopher Cavoli’s recent estimate. Moreover, given that Ukraine’s population is roughly a quarter that of Russia’s, Putin has reason to believe that he would ultimately prevail in a war of attrition, according to FT columnist Gideon Rachman.
2. While still the commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, Zaluzhnyi—who is now Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.K.—told The Economist as early as 2023 that “In order for us to break this deadlock we need something new, like the gunpowder which the Chinese invented and which we are still using to kill each other.”
3. In the past 30 days, Russian forces made a gain of 409 square kilometers (158 square miles), according to a May 23, 2025, estimate by the Economist. As of May 22, 2025, Russian forces occupied 112,869 square kilometers (43,579 square miles), which constituted 18.7% of Ukrainian territory and which is roughly equivalent to the state of Virginia, according to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map.
4. The figures carry many caveats. Fighting that’s been bogged down by Ukraine’s frigid winters tends to intensify in the summer months. As with all conflicts, the war could lurch in unexpected directions, spurred by political decisions far from the battlefield. (Bloomberg, 05.21.25)
5. With the invasion nearing its 40th month, Russian troops continue to suffer eyewatering casualties: upward of 750,000 dead and wounded, according to Western estimates, and climbing as this year's spring fighting season kicks into high gear. (RFE/RL, 05.20.25)
6. The Russian Church opposes the Vatican’s involvement in the peace talks, regarding it as a historical rival in Ukraine that also failed to strongly criticize the authorities’ closure of churches loyal to Moscow, according to people with knowledge of the issue. (Bloomberg, 05.22.25)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy. Slider photo by AP Photo.