2 Things to Know

1. Vladimir Putin completed his May 19–20 trip to China to meet with Xi Jinping without concluding a long-anticipated agreement on the Power of Siberia 2, 50 bcm-per-year gas pipeline, which Russia continues to view as central to expanding its energy exports to China. During the two days of meetings, the Russian and Chinese delegations did sign roughly 40 agreements,¹ with Xi and Putin extending the 2001 Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and adopting a declaration on a “multipolar world” which describes their countries as ancient “civilizations” opposed to “hegemonism” and “bloc confrontation.” Xi and Putin also agreed to deepen military cooperation as Moscow continues to rely heavily on Chinese dual-use technology and industrial support for its war effort in Ukraine. In addition to signing documents, Xi and Putin discussed Ukraine, but not specifically China’s 2023 peace proposal, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. The two leaders—who are to meet in China again in November—also condemned U.S. plans for the “Golden Dome” missile defense system, calling it “a clear threat to strategic stability,” and criticized recent U.S. strikes on Iran as violations of international law. When asked by BBC to assess the Putin-Xi summit, Harvard Professor and former director of the Belfer Center Graham Allison noted that “it was not accidental” that Xi hosted Trump and then Putin one after another. He added, “Russia needs China much more than China needs Russia, given its size, its economy, its vigor. China needs Russia as the back side of its war in Ukraine, where China has been a major supporter, both economically and technically, for the effort.”
2. RM’s analysis of ISW’s data for the past four weeks (April 21–May 19, 2026) indicates that Russian forces registered a net loss of 69 square miles (about three Manhattan Islands) of Ukraine’s territory during that period.² That contrasts with the previous four-week period’s (March 24–April 21, 2026) net loss of 2 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, according to the latest issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. A new U.S. DOD Special Inspector General report to the U.S. Congress on Operation Atlantic Resolve says that neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces demonstrated the capability for decisive operational breakthroughs in the first quarter of 2026. Perhaps reflecting the recent battlefield dynamics (or lack thereof), U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed that the Russia-Ukraine war “will not end with a military victory by one side or the other, at least from a traditional standpoint of how military victories are defined.”

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

• North Korea has sent about 15,000 soldiers to fight for Russia in Ukraine since late 2024, and South Korean intelligence estimates roughly 2,000 of them have been killed in combat,. A newly opened Memorial Museum of Combat Feats in Pyongyang, marking the first anniversary of Ukrainian troops’ expulsion from Russia’s Kursk region, celebrates these “noble sacrifices” and displays captured Western equipment, underscoring how crucial Pyongyang’s troops, artillery shells, short‑range ballistic missiles and antitank missiles have become to Moscow—and how much Kim Jong Un is tying his regime’s security and economy to Russia. (Wall Street Journal, 05.19.26)

Iran and its nuclear program:

Thursday, May 21, 2026

• Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has ordered that Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—estimated by the IAEA at about 440.9 kg before the June 2025 attacks, with “slightly more than 200 kg” now believed to be stored mainly at Isfahan—must not be shipped abroad, rejecting a key U.S. and Israeli demand that near‑weapons‑grade material be removed as part of any peace deal; Iranian sources say Tehran may instead consider diluting the stockpile under IAEA supervision. (Reuters, 05.21.26)

Friday, May 22, 2026

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

Saturday, May 16, 2026

• Kyiv said on May 16 that Russia had returned 528 bodies to Ukraine, identified as Ukrainian soldiers killed in action, in one of the few areas of cooperation between the warring neighbors. (MT/AFP, 05.16.26)

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

• The New York Times reports that four Ukrainian drone strikes in April and May on Rosneft’s Tuapse refinery have produced what local activists call the biggest oil spill on Russia’s Black Sea coast in decades, with officials acknowledging roughly 1 million cubic feet of contaminated pebbles and soil removed so far and more than 40 miles of shoreline affected. In the resort city of about 60,000 people, authorities took two days to admit toxin levels above legal limits and three to order limited evacuations, even as “oil rain” and thick smoke were reported. (New York Times, 05.19.26) 
• Russia’s State Duma voted overwhelmingly to appoint 37‑year‑old lawmaker Yana Lantratova as human rights ombudswoman, a post reporting directly to Vladimir Putin, even though Ukrainian authorities accuse her of helping arrange the illegal adoption of a 10‑month‑old girl taken from occupied Kherson. A U.N. commission has identified about 1,200 children removed from Ukrainian territory by Russian authorities in 2022, part of what Kyiv says is the deportation of thousands. (New York Times, 05.19.26)

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

• Russia is keeping roughly 1,000 Ukrainian citizens in de facto indefinite detention after they finish criminal sentences, holding them in foreigner detention centers and special isolators because deportation to Ukraine is “temporarily impossible” until the war ends, iStories reports. (iStories, 05.20.26)

Friday, May 22, 2026

• Ukraine has reached a technical agreement with Russia to evacuate about 6,000 civilians, including roughly 200 children, from the embattled Oleshky area in occupied Kherson region and is now waiting for Moscow to set a ceasefire date to start the operation, Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said. (RBC‑Ukraine English, 05.22.26)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• RM’s analysis of ISW’s data for the past four weeks (April 21–May 19, 2026) indicates that Russian forces registered a net loss of 69 square miles (about three Manhattan Islands) of Ukraine’s territory during that period.³ That contrasts with the previous four-week period’s (March 24–April 21, 2026) net loss of 2 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, according to the latest issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card.⁴

Friday, May 15, 2026

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says intelligence has obtained Russian plans for strikes on some 20 “decision‑making centers” in and around Kyiv—including presidential offices, an underground tunnel, and a residence—warning that Moscow has stepped up reconnaissance since the start of the Iran conflict and is likely seeking to exploit Ukraine’s Patriot interceptor shortages. (ISW, 05.15.26)

Saturday, May 16, 2026

• On May 16, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Zybyno. (RM, 05.22.26)
• A Ukrainian Armed Forces drone struck a multi‑story residential building in Russia’s Belgorod city, igniting balconies and damaging the facade and windows; nine people were injured, including a three‑year‑old girl with shrapnel wounds to her shoulder, chest and leg, according to local authorities. (Meduza, 05.16.26)
• Belgorod and surrounding districts came under roughly 15 hours of combined missile and drone attacks, local officials said, with multiple apartment blocks, other buildings in the city, private homes in nearby border villages, and the town of Graivoron damaged; nine civilians were injured in the latest strike, including a three‑year‑old girl, amid what Moscow claims was the overnight destruction of hundreds of Ukrainian drones. (iStories, 05.16.26)

Sunday, May 17, 2026

• On May 17, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Charivne. (RM, 05.22.26) 
• Russia’s offensive in Ukraine is showing signs of stalling and even reversing: The Economist’s war tracker now suggests Moscow has suffered “small but sustained territorial losses for the first time since October 2023,” with Russia having captured only about 220 sq km this year (0.04% of Ukraine’s territory) while Ukraine has recently clawed back roughly 189 sq km on a 30‑day moving average. The paper estimates 280,000–518,000 Russian soldiers killed and 1.1–1.5 million total casualties—around 3% of Russia’s pre‑war fighting‑age male population—against a CSIS estimate of up to 600,000 total Ukrainian casualties by December 2025. (The Economist, 05.17.26)
• Ukraine’s largest drone barrage of the war hit Moscow and multiple Russian regions overnight, sending more than 500–556 drones across at least 14 regions and occupied Crimea, according to Russian authorities. Around 80–120 drones targeted the Moscow capital area, where strikes on residential buildings and the Moscow Oil Refinery killed at least three people— including an Indian worker—while injuring 12–16 others; another person died in Belgorod. Some 200 flights at Moscow airports were canceled, delayed or rerouted. Russia’s defense ministry claims more than 1,000 Ukrainian drones were shot down or jammed in the past 24 hours. The attack followed Russia’s record strike on Kyiv that killed 24 people in a single apartment block and helped push Ukraine’s weekly toll to 52 dead and 346 injured, including 22 children. Zelenskyy claimed the attacks were “entirely justified” retaliation for Russia’s recent mass strike on Kyiv. Kyiv says Russia has launched more than 3,170 drones, 1,300 guided bombs and 74 missiles at Ukraine in the past week. (Meduza, Meduza, Mediazona, Bloomberg, New York Times, Washington Post, Economist, Financial Times, 05.17.26) 
• Russia’s top general, Valery Gerasimov, has again issued what analysts call a grossly distorted battlefield picture, claiming sweeping Russian advances around Kupyansk, Borova and Lyman that available evidence does not support. ISW geolocated only limited Russian infiltrations—roughly 14.2% of Kupyansk, 6.5% of Kutkivka and 0.06% of Lyman—rather than the full or near‑full control Moscow asserts. Russian forces also appear to be several kilometers from key villages Gerasimov says they have entered. Even pro‑war Russian milbloggers, who often exaggerate gains, reject his account and mock these “beautiful reports,” warning that unrealistic maps are feeding directly into flawed operational planning. (ISW, 05.16.26)

Monday, May 18, 2026

• On May 18, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Pokrovsk. (RM, 05.22.26)
• Russia launched one of its largest attacks of the war on the night of May 17–18, firing 14 Iskander‑M/S‑400 ballistic missiles, 8 Iskander‑K cruise missiles and 524 Shahed, Geran/“Gerbera,” Italmas and Parodiya decoy drones from at least seven directions. Ukraine’s Air Force said it shot down four cruise missiles and 503 drones, but 18 missiles and 16 drones still hit 34 locations, with debris affecting 11 more and heavily damaging civilian, energy and residential infrastructure, particularly in Dnipro, where apartment blocks, private homes, a religious institution, a university and an industrial facility were hit, injuring at least 18 people. (ISW, 05.18.26; Meduza, 05.18.26)
• A Ukrainian drone attack on May 18 afternoon left two men dead and injured two others in the southwestern Belgorod region, local authorities said. (MT/AFP, 05.18.26)
• A new U.S. DOD Special Inspector General report to U.S. Congress on Operation Atlantic Resolve says that in Q1 2026, Ukraine retook 400 sq km in a limited counteroffensive—its first net gains since 2023—after deactivation of Russian‑used Starlink terminals, even as shortages of ammunition, equipment, and personnel constrained large‑scale offensives. The report says that neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces demonstrated the capability for decisive operational breakthroughs in the first quarter of 2026. (DoD OIG/SIG OAR, 05.18.26)
• A new U.S. DOD Special Inspector General report to U.S.  Congress on Operation Atlantic Resolve says that between Jan. 1 and March 31, Russian forces launched about 19,044 missiles and unmanned aircraft at Ukraine, including its largest attack ever ( 1,066 drones and 34 missiles on March 23–24); In that quarter Ukrainian air defenses suppressed 88.1% of strikes, up from 81.2%, according to the report. (DoD OIG / SIG OAR, 05.18.26)
• Ukraine’s first domestically produced guided glide bomb, “Vyrovnivatel,” has a 250 kg warhead and can hit targets tens of kilometers from the release point in any weather, according to Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. (ISW, 05.18.26)

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

• On May 19, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Ukrainian Defense Forces cleared the territory in Stepnohirsk while the Russian armed forces advanced in Rodynske. (RM, 05.22.26)
• Russia’s advances in 2026 are the slowest in two years, with analysts estimating Russian casualties at up to 35,000 killed and wounded per month—now matching or exceeding recruitment. (Wall Street Journal, 05.19.26)
• Ukrainian brigades have learned how to deal better with Russian infiltration tactics, hunting down enemy soldiers who slip past infantry positions with drones and cleanup teams, said Rob Lee, a Kyiv-based military analyst and fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a think tank in Philadelphia. (Wall Street Journal, 05.19.26)
• Zelenskyy said Ukrainian “long‑range sanctions” against Russian oil infrastructure have knocked out about 10% of Russia’s refining capacity in recent months. (RBC.ua, 05.19.26)

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

• On May 20, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Dibrova and Tykhonivka. (RM, 05.22.26)
• A large overnight Russian strike on May 20 killed two people and wounded six others in Dnipro, damaging a food warehouse and private homes, while a parallel attack on Odesa destroyed or damaged residential buildings, a park, infrastructure, and another food warehouse. Ukraine’s Air Force said Russia launched one Iskander‑M ballistic missile and 154 drones of various types, of which 131 were shot down. (Meduza, 05.20.26)
• Ukrainian drones struck the Lukoil‑Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod region—one of Russia’s largest refineries supplying fuel to Moscow—causing a fire that Astra’s analysis suggests began at the primary oil‑processing unit; local schools switched to remote learning due to the drone threat. (Meduza, 05.20.26)
• Ukraine’s commander‑in‑chief Oleksandr Syrsky said Russia has, for five consecutive months, lost more personnel than it can mobilize, with at least 1,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded daily and over 141,500 total casualties since the start of 2026, including more than 83,000 irrecoverable losses, crediting “active defense” tactics and expanded drone strikes deep in Russia’s rear. (RBC.ua, 05.20.26)
• Zelenskyy said Russian planners have developed five scenarios for expanding the war from northern Ukraine along the Chernihiv–Kyiv axis, and ordered troop reinforcements and new diplomatic pressure on Belarus to ensure “none of the five scenarios” succeeds if Moscow tries to widen its offensive.  Zelenskyy said Ukraine has “taken note” of Russian plans to mobilize another 100,000 troops but believes Moscow lacks the hidden mobilization potential. (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.20.26, RBC.ua, 05.20.26)

Thursday, May 21, 2026

• On May 21, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group said in its interactive map that clearing of Kupyansk by Ukrainian armed forces continued while Russian forces advanced near Pishchane. (RM, 05.22.26)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy estimates Ukrainian forces have liberated about 590 square kilometers (228 sq. miles) of territory since the start of 2026 and “significantly strengthened” frontline positions. (Kyiv Post, 05.22.26)
• Ukrainian forces have recaptured over 400 square kilometers in southern Ukraine in winter–spring 2026 and several settlements in western Zaporizhzhia since late April, and are now conducting more offensive actions than Russian troops, according to Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi. (ISW, 05.21.26)
• Ukraine has announced a major security buildup in the country’s north to deter Russia from launching another push toward Kyiv via the territory of neighboring Belarus. The country’s military as well as agents from the Security Service of Ukraine will comb the area for spies and subversives, searching buildings for banned items, checking cars and limiting traffic, the SBU said in a Telegram post on May 21. (Bloomberg, 05.21.26)
• Ukrainian forces have intensified long-range strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure, hitting multiple major refineries. In the southern Samara region, a drone strike early May 21 targeted the Syzran refinery area, killing two people and injuring others; Ukrainian Special Operations Forces claimed the attack, saying the plant supplies fuel to the Russian military. Further east, Russia’s fourth‑largest refinery, NORSI (Lukoil‑Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez), shut its main crude distillation unit CDU‑6—responsible for 53% of throughput and about 190,000 bpd—after another Ukrainian drone strike, forcing a renewed suspension at the 16‑million‑ton‑per‑year facility, Russia’s second‑largest gasoline producer. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 05.21.26; RFE/RL, 05.21.26; Reuters, 05.21.26)
  • ISW, citing Reuters, says recent Ukrainian drone strikes have forced “virtually all” major refineries in central Russia to halt or cut fuel output, affecting over 30% of Russian gasoline production and 25% of diesel output. (ISW, 05.21.26)
• Ukraine’s Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said that cutting Russian access to Starlink (February 2026) and deploying medium‑range “middle strike” drones have given Kyiv a battlefield edge, slowing Russian advances. Russian losses per square kilometer of gain rose from 67 in October 2025 to 179 in April 2026, with Ukraine’s strategic goal set at 200 losses per km² (May 21, 2026). In the coming months, priorities for the Defense Ministry include recruiting and service reforms, transparent tender-based arms and drone procurement, and a minimum guaranteed drone supply for brigades. (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.21.26; Ukrainska Pravda, 05.21.26; Ukrainska Pravda, 05.21.26)
• Former commander of the Ukrainian armed forces Valeriy Zaluzhnyi says four years of full‑scale war have several lessons. First, modern war is inherently hybrid, fought simultaneously in military, economic, political, informational and cognitive domains. Second, such conflicts pass from a hidden phase into local struggles over influence and resources, then into full‑scale invasion and existential war. Third, in a war where the price is a nation’s survival, “there is probably no compromise”: one cannot be “slightly killed, or half alive.” Fourth, any new security order “must not have gray zones” or buffer states, which simply invite the next war. Fifth, cheap, mass “weapons of exhaustion” and AI‑driven strike systems now rapidly wear down expensive Western hardware, with drones only the visible tip of a deeper technological shift. Sixth, victory depends on the resilience of society and the economy, including energy systems “as important as protection of borders.” Seventh, he warns democracies against copying the enemy’s authoritarian methods in the name of efficiency, arguing that preserving democratic institutions and critical thinking under information assault is itself a core element of national security. (NV.ua, 05.21.26)

Friday, May 22, 2026

• Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s Yaroslavl region, prompting road closures toward Moscow and temporary restrictions at all four Moscow airports. In Russian‑occupied Starobilsk (Luhansk region), four drones hit a professional college and dormitory, killing at least four people and wounding more than 30. Additional strikes disabled the main crude distillation unit at Lukoil’s Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez refinery in Kstovo and killed three railway workers at Unecha station in Bryansk region. (Meduza, 05.22.26; The Moscow Times, 05.22.26; Ukrainska Pravda, 05.22.26, MT/AFP, 05.21.26)
  • Russia has requested an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting after a Ukrainian drone strike on the Starobilsk Vocational School dormitory in occupied Luhansk, which Kremlin and local occupation authorities say killed at least six people and wounded dozens more. Vladimir Putin – who discussed the incident with his Security Council on May 22 - called it a “monstrous crime” and ordered the military to prepare retaliatory options, while Russia’s Foreign Ministry blamed Kyiv and its Western “sponsors” for escalation. Ukraine’s General Staff rejected the accusations as “manipulative,” saying its forces struck only military facilities near Starobilsk, including an oil refinery, depots, air‑defense systems and a headquarters of the Rubikon drone unit. (The Moscow Times, 05.22.26; Meduza, 05.22.26)
• A Russian strike on Dnipro wounded at least 14 people, including a 13‑year‑old; at least 10 of the injured were hospitalized, and two apartment buildings were damaged with a fire breaking out at the site, regional chief Oleksandr Hanzha reported. Two apartment buildings were damaged in the strike, preliminary reports indicate.  (Meduza, 05.22.26)
• Ukraine and its allies increasingly see Russia’s invasion “running out of steam” as the front line stabilizes and Kyiv begins to make net territorial gains again: mapping data show the front largely steady by mid‑May, and both Finnish President Alexander Stubb and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio say Ukraine has improved its casualty ratio to roughly one Ukrainian soldier for every five Russians. Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo claimed that about 35,203 Russian soldiers were killed or severely wounded in April and that Ukraine aims to inflict at least 200 enemy losses for every square kilometer of Russian advance, arguing that monthly Russian casualties of 50,000 would render the war unsustainable for Moscow. (Bloomberg, 05.22.26) 
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio: “[The Russia-Ukraine] war will not end with a military victory by one side or the other, at least from a traditional standpoint of how military victories are defined.” (Status-6 X Account, 05.22.26)
• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha told a Ukraine–NATO Council meeting in Helsingborg that the war is at a “turning point,” arguing that Ukraine is now not just a recipient of aid but “a security provider, donor and partner” for allies, and that “Russia’s human resources are no longer a decisive advantage.” (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.22.26)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Monday, May 18, 2026

• A new U.S. DOD Special Inspector General report to Congress on Operation Atlantic Resolve says Since February 2022, Congress has made $195.03 billion available for the Ukraine response, of which $177.76 billion is obligated and $116.02 billion disbursed, while allies have committed roughly $130 billion in security aid. (DoD OIG/SIG OAR, 05.18.26) 

Friday, May 22, 2026

• The U.S. State Department has approved a possible Foreign Military Sale to Ukraine of HAWK air defense support equipment and related items worth up to $108.1 million, saying the deal will strengthen a partner that is “a force for political and economic stability in Europe” and “improve Ukraine’s ability to meet current and future threats.” (U.S. State Department via Ukrainska Pravda, 05.22.26)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Monday, May 18, 2026

• By summer 2026, Russians will be able to fly directly from domestic airports to only about 31–32 countries—roughly a third of the 80–100 destinations served in the late Soviet era—reflecting sanctions, regional conflicts and fuel and political crises, with tour operators saying that perhaps only 15 of those routes are truly attractive for tourists. (iStories, 05.18.26) 
• Russian and Belarusian gymnasts will be allowed to compete under their national flags and anthems again, the sport’s governing body, World Gymnastics, announced on May 18, fully restoring membership rights stripped after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 05.18.26)

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

• Euroclear has rejected a Moscow arbitration court ruling ordering it to pay 18.17 trillion rubles (about €200 billion) in “damages” to Russia’s central bank and says Russian assets it holds will remain frozen under EU sanctions. The Belgian clearing house called the lawsuit “unsubstantiated,” said it doesn’t recognize the Russian court’s jurisdiction, and is appealing the decision; about €190 billion of some €260 billion in frozen Russian central bank reserves are parked at Euroclear, and since 2024 income from those assets has been channeled to Ukraine aid. (Meduza, 05.19.26)
•  Britain’s sanctions watchdog fined Deutsche Bank’s London branch £165,000 ($221,000) for breaching Russia sanctions by processing two payments worth about £635,619 in June–July 2022 to a Russian entity that had become affiliated with a sanctioned party. OFSI said the bank self‑reported, qualifying for a 45% discount on the original £300,000 penalty; Deutsche Bank said it “takes sanctions compliance extremely seriously” and has been strengthening its controls. (Reuters, 05.19.26)

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

• EU ambassadors will this week discuss a “mini‑package” of sanctions that could, for the first time, include Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill, after Hungary’s new government reportedly dropped Viktor Orbán’s earlier veto; the package targets about 10 people previously shielded by Budapest, plus several “shadow fleet” tankers used to evade oil sanctions, and may also restore names like sports minister Mikhail Degtyaryov and oligarch Vyacheslav Kantor to the blacklist. (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.20.26)
• The U.S. is pushing Ukraine to ease restrictions on imports of potash fertilizers from Belarus and has asked Kyiv to make the case with European nations to do so as well, according to people familiar with the matter. U.S. officials have proposed that Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine lift sanctions on Belarusian potash to allow the transit of the agricultural product—a major source of hard currency revenue for Minsk—through their territories. (Bloomberg, 05.20.26, RFE/RL, 05.22.26)
• Kyrgyzstan has taken sweeping action to clamp down on companies suspected of circumventing Western sanctions imposed on Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Kyrgyz Justice Ministry has announced that 50 companies will be forced to suspend their activities after they had been flagged by Western partners. (RFE/RL, 05.20.26)

Friday, May 22, 2026

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Saturday, May 16, 2026

• Europe shouldn’t take the Kremlin’s bait by engaging in direct talks with Russia at a time when Ukraine has gained the upper hand in its fight, Estonia’s top diplomat warned. Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said Moscow has intensified outreach to European nations as its economy falters and its military struggles to make progress in the fifth year of the full-scale invasion. (Bloomberg, 05.16.26)

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

• Yuri Ushakov, Russian President Vladimir Putin's foreign policy aide, said Russia is expecting Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoys for peace talks, in Russia in ''the coming weeks.'' (New York Times, 05.20.26)
• EU governments are discussing whether former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi or ex-chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel could represent the bloc in potential negotiations with Vladimir Putin, as momentum gathers to reopen formal channels with Russia. Foreign ministers will discuss the merits of possible candidates at an EU meeting in Cyprus next week after Washington and Kyiv expressed support for Europe to engage with Russia’s president over the war in Ukraine, said people briefed on the discussions. In addition to Draghi and Merkel, other governments have proposed Finland’s President Alexander Stubb and his predecessor, Sauli Niinistö, as possible appointees, the people said. (Financial Times, 05.20.26)
  • Dmitry Peskov, the Russian president’s spokesperson, last week praised the European efforts to open a line with Moscow last week. “We will hope that a practical approach will win out and it has some kind of real-world impact,” Peskov said. “Putin is just a phone call away for European countries.” (Financial Times, 05.20.26)

Thursday, May 21, 2026

• Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov says the Kremlin has progressively “lowered the bar” of its war aims—from the original goal of “taking Kyiv in three days” to “Donbas at any price,” and now to a narrative that Ukraine must remain non‑nuclear and outside any military alliances, signaling a shift toward selling Ukrainian “non‑alignment” domestically as a possible definition of “victory.” (RBC‑Ukraine, 05.21.26)

Friday, May 22, 2026

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says three‑way talks between Ukraine, the United States and Russia are currently “on pause,” but could resume if Washington sees a real chance for productive negotiations, rejecting reports that the U.S. is pressuring Kyiv to accept specific positions as “false leaks.” He said recent months have shown “little progress” and that the U.S. is not interested in an “endless cycle of meetings that lead nowhere,” adding that the war in Ukraine will ultimately end through a negotiated settlement rather than a traditional military victory by either side. (RBC‑Ukraine, 05.22.26)
• Switzerland is adopting most of the European Union’s 20th sanctions package against Russia and Belarus, but skips from some elements for now, the government said. Switzerland refrains from sanctioning 7 companies in a third country, saying that operational measures ensure that the sanctions are not circumvented. Some “sweeping measures” in the financial, energy and trade sectors will be discussed by the Swiss government instead of being adopted directly. (Bloomberg, 05.22.26)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Saturday, May 16, 2026

• NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte will meet top European defense manufacturers in Brussels next week to press them to accelerate investment and boost production—especially in air defense and long‑range missiles—as the alliance seeks to strengthen Europe’s military capabilities, reduce dependence on U.S. systems, and address President Donald Trump’s demands for higher European defense spending ahead of the July summit in Ankara. (Financial Times, 05.16.26) 

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

• As of May 20 Trump administration was planning to scale back the U.S. conventional military role in Europe while insisting it will maintain its nuclear umbrella. Washington plans to formally tell NATO it is shrinking the pool of U.S. forces and capabilities pledged under the NATO Force Model and will cut Army brigades in Europe from four to three, cancelling a planned rotation of 4,000 troops to Poland and reducing forward‑deployed forces by about 5,000 overall. Officials frame the shift as pushing Europeans to take “primary responsibility” for conventional defense, but former officials warn it risks eroding NATO deterrence. (Reuters, 05.20.26; Financial Times, 05.20.26)
• A RAF Rivet Joint aircraft operating in international airspace over the Black Sea was dangerously intercepted by Russian military jets—flying as close as six meters and triggering onboard emergency systems. (UK MOD X Account, 05.20.26)

Thursday, May 21, 2026

• On May 21 President Donald Trump was reported to have abruptly ordered the deployment of 5,000 U.S. troops to Poland—reversing a Pentagon decision just a week earlier to cancel that rotation—citing the “successful election” of Polish President Karol Nawrocki in a move that blindsided defense officials and added to allied and bipartisan concern over the administration’s whiplash approach to U.S. forces in Europe. (New York Times, 05.21.26)
• Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys told Switzerland’s NZZ that NATO “has the means” to “level” Russian air- and missile-defense bases in Kaliningrad and must show it can “break into their little fortress,” prompting Moscow to denounce his comments as “madness” and “suicidal paranoia” and some Russian lawmakers to threaten that any NATO attack on the exclave would trigger Russia’s nuclear doctrine. (Meduza, 05.21.26)

Friday, May 22, 2026

• NATO allies and U.S. defense officials expressed bewilderment after President Donald Trump abruptly announced he would send 5,000 U.S. troops to Poland—just weeks after ordering a similar number pulled out of Europe and halting a long‑range missile unit deployment to Germany. The apparent about‑face, justified by Trump as a reward for Polish President Karol Nawrocki, has left commanders scrambling and partners questioning Washington’s reliability, even as Secretary of State Marco Rubio insists allies understand that, over time, overall U.S. troop levels in Europe—currently about 80,000, with a legal floor of 76,000—are likely to decline. (Washington Post / AP, 05.22.26)
  • Rubio has tried to reassure allies over U.S. decisions on troop deployments in Europe. Rubio's intervention at the end of a NATO foreign ministers' meeting in Sweden came after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would send an extra 5,000 troops to Poland. That decision was a week after a planned deployment of 4,000 troops to the country was cancelled and days after an announcement that U.S. troops would be pulled out of Germany. (RFE/RL, BBC, 05.22.26)
• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said only 6–7 European allies are currently doing “most of the work” in paying for U.S. weapons for Ukraine under the PURL mechanism, and urged a “more even” burden‑sharing so that all European states contribute to financing critical systems such as Patriot air and missile defense. (Ukrainska Pravda/European Pravda, 05.22.26)
• U.S. intelligence assessments say China and Russia have significantly expanded signals‑intelligence operations in Cuba, roughly tripling the number of intelligence personnel on the island since 2023 and upgrading electronic‑eavesdropping sites that can monitor two key U.S. military commands in Florida overseeing the Middle East and Latin America. The findings are being used to bolster the Trump administration’s designation of Cuba as “an unusual and extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security, with President Trump vowing to be the one to “do something” about the threat and Secretary of State Marco Rubio citing a growing “Russian and Chinese intelligence presence” just 90 miles from the U.S. mainland. (Wall Street Journal, 05.22.26)
• Huddled on a disused underground train platform in central London, hundreds of British soldiers played out their response to a fictional Russian attack on NATO, chewing through terabytes of data every day to direct fictional assets, including drones and robots, against the invasion. Assisted by artificial intelligence and a new combat networking system called ASGARD, they followed the simulated conflagration in Estonia on giant interactive maps projected between two platforms once used by the London Underground’s Jubilee Line. The new technology allowed them to plan the complex mission to push Russian forces back and recapture lost territory in just two hours—down from as many as three days. (Bloomberg, 05.22.26)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?⁵

Saturday, May 16, 2026

• The Kremlin said Vladimir Putin will visit Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 19–20, just days after Donald Trump’s state visit. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov called it “a good opportunity” for Putin and Xi to compare notes on U.S.–China talks and push energy deals, including the long‑sought Siberia–Mongolia “Power of Siberia 2” gas pipeline that would carry up to 50 billion m³ of gas a year. Senior European officials said Putin also wants Xi’s private readout of his meetings with Trump as the two authoritarian leaders coordinate a joint counterweight to the West while Russia and Ukraine continue large‑scale drone strikes and prisoner exchanges. (New York Times, 05.16.26; Wall Street Journal, 05.16.26; Washington Post/AP, 05.16.26)

Sunday, May 17, 2026

• Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin exchanged congratulatory messages marking the opening of the China-Russia Expo in the northeastern city of Harbin, highlighting deepening economic ties between the two countries. (Bloomberg, 05.17.26)

Monday, May 18, 2026

• Xi Jinping told Donald Trump during their talks last week that Russian President Vladimir Putin might end up regretting his invasion of Ukraine.  According to several people familiar with the U.S. assessment of last week’s summit in Beijing, the Chinese president made the comments during wide-ranging talks that touched on Ukraine. However, Trump then denied reports that his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, offered a bleak assessment of Russia’s war in Ukraine, including claiming that Vladimir Putin would regret invading his neighbor. Xi “never said that,” Trump told reporters Tuesday at the White House. (Bloomberg, 05.19.26, Financial Times, 05.18.26) 
• Ahead of the trip to Xi, Putin said the two were close to a “highly significant step forward in oil and gas cooperation.” The centerpiece of the Xi-Putin summit was to be the long‑mooted Power of Siberia 2 pipeline: a 1,600‑mile (2,600 km) route via Mongolia designed to carry up to 50 billion m³ of gas a year—well below Russia’s pre‑war European sales but enough to lock in a major new Chinese market if Beijing’s informal cap of ~20% of hydrocarbon imports from any single supplier can be finessed. About 90% of China’s oil imports still arrive by sea, largely from the Middle East. (The EconomistTop of Form, 05.18.26; Bottom of FormBloomberg, 05.18.26; Vechernyaya Moskva, 05.18.26; New York Times, 05.20.26)
• A Ukrainian military spokesman said a Russian drone accidentally struck and damaged the Chinese‑owned bulk carrier KSL Deyang in the Black Sea near Odesa during a mass overnight attack on Ukraine, leaving a scorch mark on the superstructure but causing no casualties among the all‑Chinese crew. (iStories, 05.18.26)

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

• President Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing on May 20 for a two‑day state visit with Xi Jinping accompanied heavyweight delegation of five deputy prime ministers, eight cabinet ministers, Central Bank governor Elvira Nabiullina. The delegation also included Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and aluminum tycoon Oleg Deripaska, as well as the heads of the state development corporation VEB, the nuclear agency Rosatom and the space corporation Roscosmoss. Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov said the key goal of the visit is to push “in great detail” for the 50 billion m³‑per‑year Power of Siberia 2 project and sign a joint declaration deepening their “special strategic partnership,” China now provides more than a third of Russia’s imports and buys over a quarter of its exports, while Russia accounts for only about 4% of China’s trade.  (New York Times, 05.20.26; The Moscow Times, 05.19.26)
  • While Mr. Trump had been greeted at the airport by Han Zheng, China's vice president, Mr. Putin was met by China's top diplomat, Wang Yi. Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, said that in her view, Mr. Han was the more senior official, but Mr. Wang played a more active role in foreign policy. (New York Times, 05.20.26)
  • The main contrast between the Xi-Trump and Xi-Putin summits was in their messaging. With Trump, Xi focused on the need to maintain a relatively stable relationship after months of tensions and a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. He urged the U.S. president to see China as a partner rather than a rival, and both leaders agreed to work toward what they described as “a constructive China-U.S. relationship of strategic stability.” With Putin, Xi sought to reinforce and deepen a longstanding partnership that is both strategic and economically important for the two countries. (Washington Post, 05.21.26)
  • German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he does not expect a strategic shift in Sino‑Russian relations from Vladimir Putin’s 25th state visit to China but urged Xi Jinping to use his influence to push Putin to end a war in Ukraine that “he cannot win,” as analysts predict Beijing will continue supplying components that support Russia’s war effort in exchange for combat experience and technology sharing. (RBC.ua, 05.20.26)
• In their ninth face‑to‑face since February 2022 Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin—who made his 25th visit to China—signed a pact on deepening strategic cooperation on Wednesday. Putin said approximately 40 agreements had been reached during the visit, but no official deal was made on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline. The 40 signed agreements included an agreement on the joint construction of a new railway link across their shared border The project involves building a second rail line with Chinese standard gauge track at the border between Zabaikalsk in Russia’s Far East and Manzhouli in China’s Inner Mongolia. China’s bilateral trade with Russia has risen about 55% in five years to roughly $228 billion.⁶ Russian officials say oil exports to China grew 35% year‑on‑year in Q1 2026. (Bloomberg, 05.19.26; Wall Street Journal, 05.19.26; The Economist, 05.19.26; Washington Post, 05.19.26; Bloomberg, 05.20.26)
  • For Moscow, the stakes are high: energy export revenues are down about 38% year‑on‑year and the federal budget deficit has “soared,” leaving Russia more dependent on China as both its largest energy customer and a key supplier of components for its war effort. (Financial Times, 05.19.26) 
• Ding Xuexiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, met with Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Manturov in Beijing on May 19. Ding Xuexiang said that under the strategic guidance of President Xi Jinping and President Putin, the relevant sides in China and Russia have worked together to maintain sound momentum in bilateral investment cooperation. The two sides should… further implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, give play to the overall coordinating role of the China-Russia Investment Cooperation Committee, steadily advance key projects, expand areas of cooperation, achieve more substantive results, and continue to inject strong impetus into the development of bilateral relations. Manturov said that the Russian side is willing to strengthen strategic alignment with China, enrich the substance of cooperation, actively resolve issues of mutual concern, and steadily raise the level of bilateral investment cooperation. (CCTV, 05.19.26). 

• Zhang Hanhui, Chinese Ambassador to Russia wrote in the May 19 issue of People’s 

  Daily: “The significance and impact of China-Russia comprehensive strategic coordination in the new era extend far beyond the bilateral scope, becoming an important ballast for safeguarding world peace and stability and a mainstay for defending international fairness and justice, embodying the responsibility and broad-mindedness of two responsible major countries. (CPC news, 05.19.26)

• Reuters reports that China’s People’s Liberation Army covertly trained about 200 Russian soldiers in China in late 2025 under a dual‑language agreement signed in Beijing, with courses focused on drones, electronic warfare, air defense and explosives; European intelligence services say many of those trained have since been involved in drone combat in occupied Crimea and Zaporizhzhia, meaning Beijing is more directly involved in the Ukraine war than it publicly admits. (Reuters, 05.19.26)

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

• On May 20 Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Vladimir Putin in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People,⁷ where they agreed to extend the 2001 Treaty of Good‑Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation and declared that China‑Russia ties have reached an “unprecedented” level. China and Russia have developed the comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era on the basis of equality, mutual respect, good faith, and win-win cooperation, Xi said. The leaders signed a joint declaration on a “multipolar world,” and a joint statement on deepening comprehensive strategic coordination while also witnessing signing of 20 cooperation deals in areas including trade, energy, transport, education, and science and technology. They pledged to expand practical economic ties, boost people‑to‑people exchanges, and intensify coordination in the UN, SCO, BRICS, and APEC, framing their partnership as a pillar of a more “just and reasonable” multipolar global order. (Xinhua, 05.20.26, al Jazeera, 05.20.26)
  • Russo-Chinese “Declaration on the Formation of a Multipolar World and a New Type of International Relations” repeatedly frames both countries as ancient “civilizations” and rejects any hierarchy of “high” or “low” civilizations, insisting that no spiritual‑moral system is “exclusive or superior.” The text sets out four guiding principles—open, inclusive cooperation; “indivisible and equal security” that rejects bloc expansion and proxy wars; “democratization” of global governance that bans hegemony by any state or group; and protection of “civilizational and value diversity” against rights‑based interference. (Atlas Baize, Telegram, 05.21.26)
  • Speaking to Mr. Putin inside the Great Hall of the People, Mr. Xi called for a “complete cessation of hostilities” in the Middle East, warning that it would be “unacceptable” if fighting renewed. The joint statement on their strategic partnership, which Xi and Putin signed, expressed concern at the “militarization of the U.S. and its allies” and condemned U.S. operations not only in Iran, but also in Latin America. . (Financial Times, 05.20.26; New York Times, 05.20.26)
  • “We’ll expand our bilateral cooperation and actively engage in international forums where our teams are working closely together to build a strong foundation for a multipolar world,” Putin said. . ''We are ready to cooperate with everyone, including our partners around the world, including the United States,'' Mr. Putin said. Moscow Times/AP, 05.20.26; New York Times, 05.20.26)
  • Xi Jinping hailed Russian‑Chinese relations as a “model” for ties between major powers and, in a veiled swipe at the United States, warned of “unilateral and hegemonic countercurrents running rampant” and “the tide of unilateral hegemony,” comments widely read as referring to Washington’s Iran war, seizure of Venezuela’s leader, and cutoff of Cuban oil supplies (Moscow Times/AP, 05.20.26; New York Times, 05.20.26)
  • On May 20 in Beijing, Putin called Xi a “dear friend.” The Russian leader also used a Chinese idiom to express to Xi how much he had missed him: “A day without you feels like three autumns have passed.” Xi typically calls Putin an “old friend.” Xi Jinping has told Vladimir Putin the world is in danger of regressing to “the law of the jungle” as he sought to portray China as a force of global stability just days after hosting Donald Trump in Beijing. Speaking to reporters after their meeting, Xi said the two sides should promote co-operation in energy and technology, including in artificial intelligence, and work together to “improve global governance”. “Unilateralism and hegemonism are deeply harmful, and the world faces the danger of regressing back to the law of the jungle,” Xi said in a veiled criticism of the U.S.. (Financial Times, 05.20.26; Wall Street Journal, 05.20.26; Wall Street Journal, 05.20.26)
  • Putin said after the talks with XI that Russia’s relations with China were at an “unprecedented level and continue to grow.” He added that the leaders “exchanged opinions on current international issues” and reaffirmed their commitment to “an independent and self-sufficient foreign policy in close strategic connection, playing an important stabilizing role on the global stage”. Putin also praised Russia’s economic ties to China, citing trade volumes last year of $240bn. Russia is “ready to continue reliable, uninterrupted supplies of all kinds of fuels to the fast-growing Chinese market,” he said. The comment was an apparent reference to the long-delayed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline. In the absence of a deal on PS2 Gazprom’s shares fell about 3.5%, and pipe‑maker TMK, seen as a key supplier for the project, dropped 6.75%. (iStories, 05.20.26; Financial Times, 05.20.26)
    • Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy spokesperson, told state television that Russia and China had “agreed on something very important” in energy, without elaborating. But Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Putin said during the negotiations that “the main parameters of understanding are there on Power of Siberia 2—on the route and how it will be built”. Peskov said with regard to PS2 that Russia and China “still need to agree on some nuances” and did not have a clear understanding of when the pipeline would be built, according to Interfax. (Financial Times, 05.20.26)
    • Moscow ultimately aims to supply over 100 bcm of pipeline gas annually to China via Power of Siberia‑1, Power of Siberia‑2, and the Far Eastern route; the Far Eastern pipeline alone is designed to deliver up to 12 bcm per year to China from early 2027, according to Russian plans. (Bloomberg, 05.20.26)
      • Lyle Morris, senior fellow on Chinese national security and foreign policy at Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, said the biggest surprise from the Xi-Putin meetings was that it appears no formal deal was signed for the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline plan , which could send gas from Russia to China through Mongolia. “This is a huge setback for Russia and Putin,” he said. China, already gets about 20% of its hydrocarbon imports from Russia and roughly 90% of its oil by sea. (Washington Post, 05.21.26; The Economist, 05.20.26) 
      • With China’s gas consumption likely to decline, sales via a new Power of Siberia 2 pipeline might not cover the infrastructure investment, said Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center who studies Russia-China ties. (Wall Street Journal, 05.20.26).
• On the military side, both sides agreed at the Beijing summit to strengthen cooperation between their armed forces. Putin might also seek Xi’s help on obtaining dual-use equipment with military applications. China supplies drone parts to Ukraine, such as the fiber-optic cable used to make drones impervious to jamming. But the volumes are far lower.Last year, China sold more than $40 million of such cable to Russia and about $6 million to Ukraine, according to Chinese customs data reviewed by WSJ. (Wall Street Journal, 05.20.26). 
• Xi and Putin called Mr. Trump's plans to build a ''Golden Dome'' missile defense system ''a clear threat to strategic stability'' and directly said that U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran had violated international law. (New York Times, 05.20.26)
• Also on May 20 Chinese Premier Li Qiang met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing, saying that amid a “turbulent international landscape” the China–Russia relationship has remained “stable and predictable” and vowing to raise cooperation “to new heights” under the two leaders’ strategic guidance. Li pledged to expand trade, implement the upgraded investment pact, deepen cooperation in energy, agriculture, connectivity, and green development, and align Belt and Road projects with the Eurasian Economic Union, while Putin called for advancing joint work in trade, energy, transport, digital economy, AI, and education exchanges. (Xinhua, 05.20.26) 
• On Wednesday Xi and Putin opened the “China–Russia Years of Education,” with Xi calling education a “bridge” for generational friendship and urging deeper cooperation in talent training, science and technology, and youth exchanges, while Putin said the multi‑year program would feature “large-scale events” and is vital to ensuring the Russia–China friendship is “carried forward by succeeding generations.” (Chinese MFA, 05.20.26)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin ended his Beijing visit with a tea meeting with Xi Jinping, where the Chinese leader hailed the “very successful” trip, noting that the two sides had signed “many joint and final documents,” including a joint statement on cooperation in “various key areas.” Putin called the talks “successful, productive, and intensive.” Putin’s China trip lasted two days, with almost 11 hours spent in talks. The visit produced 42 bilateral documents, but iStories notes the only concrete outcome was extending mutual visa‑free travel to the end of 2027. Yuri Ushakov, Mr. Putin's foreign policy aide, said that Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump might meet in the Chinese city of Shenzhen in November, presumably on the sidelines of APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in this city. During the tea chat Xi said heir long-running close interactions have created a “new paradigm” of major-power relations and that the visit produced “new and important consensus” on advancing the comprehensive strategic partnership; the two also exchanged views on the Ukraine crisis. (Chinese MFA, 05.21.26; New York Times, 05.20.26; iStories, 05.20.26; Kremlin , 05.20.26) 
• China has extended its visa-free regime for Russian citizens until December 31, 2027, allowing holders of international passports to enter for up to 30 days for business, tourism, family visits, and transit. Beijing first introduced visa-free entry for Russians in September 2025 and has now twice tied announcements on this regime to Vladimir Putin’s state visits. (Meduza, 05.20.26)
• About 90% of Russia’s machine‑tool imports now come from China. (The Economist, 05.20.26)

Thursday, May 21, 2026

• Xinhua says the past Xi–Putin summit “set the course for the next stage” of China–Russia relations, noting more than three hours of “in-depth, friendly and fruitful” talks in Beijing, describing the Russian-Chinese as at “the highest level in history.” (Xinhua, 05.21.26) 
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping did not discuss China’s 2023 Ukraine peace proposal during the Beijing summit, although the issue of Ukraine was raised in broader terms. (TASS, 05.21.26)
• Russia will issue its second batch of yuan‑denominated government bonds after Putin’s China visit, offering 10‑year notes with a 10,000‑yuan face value, with order book opening May 28 and listing on the Moscow Exchange on June 3. The first two tranches sold late last year raised a total of 20 billion yuan ($2.9 billion), including a 12 billion‑yuan 2029 bond at a 6% coupon and an 8 billion‑yuan 2033 bond at 7%, as Moscow builds a yuan yield curve to finance war‑driven budget shortfalls. (Bloomberg, 05.21.26) 

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Russia is in the late stages of a multi‑decade nuclear modernization, but key elements—especially new ICBMs and bombers—are progressing “much more slowly than planned,” according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which estimates a stockpile of about 4,400 nuclear warheads (plus ~1,020 retired) as of March 2026, including roughly 1,796 deployed strategic warheads and around 1,794 nonstrategic warheads in storage. With New START expired in February 2026, Moscow could, in theory, upload “hundreds” of additional warheads onto existing delivery systems and boost its deployed arsenal by up to 60%, though it currently signals it will stick to the old limits. (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 05.14.26)

Sunday, May 17, 2026

• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, when asked whether Russia might use nuclear weapons in response to Ukrainian drone strikes, said a nuclear power “must not be threatened” in its existence and called nuclear deterrence the “cornerstone” of Russia’s national security, without signaling any change to official doctrine. (Strana.ua, 05.17.26)

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

• Russia conducted large, nuclear readiness drills from May 19–21, practicing the “preparation and use of nuclear forces under the threat of aggression” with live launches of nuclear‑capable ballistic and cruise missiles. The exercises involved roughly 64,000–65,000 personnel, more than 200 missile launchers, over 140 aircraft, 73 surface ships and 13 submarines, including eight strategic missile submarines, drawing in the Strategic Missile Forces, Northern and Pacific Fleets, Long Range Aviation, and units from the Leningrad and Central Military Districts. Parallel drills in Belarus focused on delivering and preparing “special munitions” for use by Belarusian units that operate Russian nuclear systems, including the new Oreshnik intermediate‑range missile. Analysts estimate the maneuvers likely involved most of Russia’s ~320 ICBM launchers and view the surprise timing, amid intensified Ukrainian deep‑strike attacks and a looser 2024 nuclear doctrine, as intended to signal strength to NATO and offset battlefield setbacks in Ukraine (Istories, 05.19.26; Washington Post/AP, 05.19.26; Meduza, 05.19.26; Meduza, 05.18.26; Institute for the Study of War, 05.19.26) 

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that Russia would face “devastating consequences” if it used nuclear weapons against Ukraine, saying the alliance is closely monitoring ongoing Russian‑Belarusian nuclear drills that practice delivery and preparation of nuclear munitions. (RBC.ua, 05.20.26)

Thursday, May 21, 2026

• Russia and Belarus completed large-scale joint nuclear exercises held May 19–21 that included practicing the “preparation and use” of nuclear forces. Russia’s Defense Ministry said “special munitions” were delivered to missile brigades’ field positions in Belarus, releasing video of trucks loading Iskander‑M systems and moving covertly to launch areas. The drills featured launches of a Yars ICBM, Zircon missile, Sineva SLBM and Iskander missile. (Washington Post, 05.21.26; Independent, 05.21.26; ISW, 05.21.26; Meduza, 05.21.26)
  • Vladimir Putin said the use of nuclear weapons would be a “last resort.” He said the joint drill was the “first combined training” of Russian and Belarusian armies to command strategic and tactical nuclear forces, stressing that nuclear use is “an extreme, exceptional measure” for national security but that, amid rising global tensions, the nuclear triad must remain a “reliable guarantor” of the Union State’s sovereignty and strategic deterrence. He said the exercise would test command-and-control procedures, including for weapons deployed in Belarus, and include practical launches of ballistic and cruise missiles, later adding that Russia will continue modernizing its nuclear forces while keeping them at a level of “necessary sufficiency.” (Kremlin, Independent, 05.21.26)
  • Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko said he was glad to join the exercises, noting that elements of such drills are held “every quarter” by the general staffs even without the presidents present, and thanking the military for inviting them this time. He insisted that “we absolutely threaten no one,” but emphasized that Russia and Belarus have such weapons and are “ready in every way” to defend their common homeland “from Brest to Vladivostok.” Lukashenko said he had inspected facilities in Belarus and found them in good condition, and framed the training as a lawful, necessary demonstration of readiness to protect their people. (Kremlin, 05.21.26) 
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, asked whether the joint Russian‑Belarusian nuclear drills are a signal to Europe and NATO, replied that “any exercises are part of military development, and any exercises are a signal,” framing the maneuvers themselves as a deliberate message to Western observers. (Telegram, t.me/youlistenedmayak/42399, accessed 05.21.26) 
    • Russian nuclear analyst Pavel Podvig wrote that the drills, normally held in autumn, practiced the “preparation and employment of nuclear forces under conditions of a threat of aggression,” wording that implies potential use before an actual attack. (Russianforces.org, 1, 2, 05.21.26)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Bluesky says a Kremlin-linked influence network has been hacking “hundreds” of real users’ accounts—including journalists, academics, and other mid‑level influencers—to post AI‑doctored pro‑Russian propaganda videos and fake news clips about Ukraine, France, and other targets, in what researchers at Clemson University and the dTeam trace to Moscow’s Social Design Agency, part of the broader “Matryoshka” disinformation operation. (New York Times, 05.21.26)
• An independent audit by cybersecurity firm Symbolic Software has confirmed a critical vulnerability in Telegram’s architecture, finding that the app sends an unencrypted, persistent device identifier (auth_key_id) over unsecured TCP connections, enabling governments, ISPs, and other observers to track users and map their communications networks over time—validating earlier reporting that linked Telegram’s core network operator, Vladimir Vedeneev, to Russia’s FSB surveillance infrastructure. (iStories, 05.18.26)

Energy exports from CIS:

Sunday, May 17, 2026

• Isabella Weber, an economics professor at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. researched fallout from Russia’s war on Ukraine to find that roughly 50% of the huge profits from U.S. energy firms in 2022 flowed to the wealthiest 1% of Americans. (Wall Street Journal, 05.17.26) 

Monday, May 18, 2026

• Four liquefied natural gas tankers that until recently serviced Oman’s export plant are beginning to load fuel from a U.S.-sanctioned Russian project, the latest sign of Moscow’s efforts to boost shipments and skirt Western restrictions. The Kosmos docked over the weekend alongside the blacklisted Saam floating storage unit near Murmansk in western Russia before later departing with a deeper draft, a sign that it had taken on a cargo, according to ship-tracking data. Three other former Omani vessels—Merkuriy, Orion and Luch—have also picked up from Saam or are positioning to dock there, ship data shows. Saam stores fuel produced by the U.S.-sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 plant, which is only accessible to vessels with ice-breaking capability for most of the year. Shipping is the key bottleneck for Russia’s fuel trapped in its northern region, and the extra tankers could allow the nation to expand its exports. (Bloomberg, 05.18.26)
• Zelenskyy says Russian documents show at least a 10% reduction in refining capacity in 2026 so far, one oil company shutting 400 wells, and 11 financial institutions preparing to liquidate with another eight needing external support. He estimates the federal budget deficit is already nearly $80 billion in the first five months of 2026, after years of drawing down sovereign‑fund reserves and selling gold, with a higher VAT driving more activity into the gray economy. (ISW, 05.18.26)

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

• The U.S. has extended for another 30 days a sanctions waiver allowing “stranded at sea” Russian oil cargoes to be sold, as President Donald Trump’s administration tries to contain fuel prices driven up by the Iran war. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the measure, first issued in early March and now renewed twice, is meant to ease supply shortages, aid poorer importers, and curb China’s ability to “stockpile discounted oil,” though critics argue it also helps finance Russia’s war on Ukraine. Brent crude has surged over 50% to above $110 a barrel, pushing average U.S. gasoline to $4.52 and diesel to $5.63 per gallon, with one study estimating more than $40 billion in extra U.S. fuel costs since the conflict began. (Financial Times, 05.19.26; Washington Post, 05.19.26)

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

• The UK has issued waivers softening its latest sanctions on Russian oil and gas, allowing imports of jet fuel and diesel refined from Russian crude in third countries to continue from May 22 in order to ease supply pressures caused by the Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—prompting criticism from Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, who called the move “insane,” and concern from Ukraine’s sanctions chief that it could still generate extra revenue for Russia’s war effort, even as London insists no existing sanctions are being lifted. (Financial Times, 05.20.26) 

Thursday, May 21, 2026

• Russia’s oil and gas revenues are projected to reach about 700 billion rubles (roughly $7.8 billion at ₽90/$1) in May 2026—up 39% year-on-year thanks to Middle East–driven price spikes—but down 17% versus April because a quarterly windfall tax isn’t paid this month and refinery subsidies/damper payouts are rising. Year-to-date oil and gas revenues are still down about one third to 3 trillion rubles (around $33 billion), against a full-year plan of 8.92 trillion (about $99 billion), after totaling 8.48 trillion rubles (about $94 billion) in 2025, the lowest since the pandemic. (iStories, 05.21.26)
• Russia’s Kremlin insists there is “no risk” of fuel shortages from Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, with Dmitry Peskov blaming localized output drops on “seasonal maintenance,” even as industry sources report a national shortfall of AI‑95 gasoline and drivers in Ryazan say many stations have run out of both 95‑ and 92‑grade fuel; recent Ukrainian attacks have hit plants that account for roughly a quarter of Russia’s refining capacity. (Meduza, 05.21.26)
• Russia on Wednesday voted with other major energy exporters and greenhouse gas emitters against a UN General Assembly resolution that requires governments to take stronger action on climate change. The vote was 141-8 with 28 abstentions. Russia, Iran, the United States, Belarus, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Yemen and Liberia voted against the non-binding resolution. (MT/AFP, 05.21.26)

Friday, May 22, 2026

• The Astana International Financial Centre Court in Kazakhstan authorized enforcement of a $1.4 billion international arbitration award against Gazprom in favor of Ukraine’s Naftogaz, the first foreign jurisdiction to recognize and allow execution of the Swiss ruling on its territory; Naftogaz says it is pursuing Gazprom’s assets “across various jurisdictions” after the Russian company failed to pay voluntarily. (Meduza, 05.22.26)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• For the first time in several years, the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) will be attended by an official U.S. government representative. Rodney Mims Cook, head of the U.S. Commission of Fine Arts, has confirmed he plans to take part in the forum, including the plenary session at which Vladimir Putin is expected to speak. Cook will be the first representative of the U.S. presidential administration to attend SPIEF since before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The forum is scheduled to run in St. Petersburg from June 3 to 6, 2026. (Forbes Russia, 05.21.26) 

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Tulsi Gabbard, President Trump’s director of national intelligence, announced she will resign effective June 30 to care for her husband, whom she said has been diagnosed with “an extremely rare form of bone cancer.” In a resignation letter citing the need to “step away from public service to be by his side,” Gabbard noted their 11 years of marriage and his support through her military deployment and political career; Trump said principal deputy Aaron Lukas will serve as acting DNI. (Axios, 05.22.26)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

Friday, May 15, 2026

• Russia’s state pollster VTsIOM reports a small rebound in Vladimir Putin’s approval and trust ratings after seven weeks of decline—now about 66% and 72% respectively—while quietly changing its methodology to add door‑to‑door surveys to phone polling amid tighter mobile restrictions and rising fraud, raising questions about how comparable the new figures are to earlier data. (ISW, 05.15.26)

Monday, May 18, 2026

• Russian President Vladimir Putin told Russia’s Security Council that developing the rare and rare‑earth metals sector is now a core task for ensuring the country’s “technological sovereignty” and national security, underscoring how critical minerals have become a strategic priority for the Kremlin. (Kremlin, 05.17.26)
• Growth in Russia’s online grocery market slowed sharply to 23.9% year‑on‑year in Q1 2026—its weakest pace since early 2023—as higher costs and repeated mobile‑internet shutdowns, imposed amid Ukrainian drone attacks, disrupted ordering and delivery. (Meduza, 05.18.26)
• The Russian government has scrapped its first attempt to sell the country’s third-largest gold producer by auction nearly a year after nationalizing the company, the Interfax news agency reported Monday. Authorities seized billionaire regional lawmaker Konstantin Strukov’s stake in Yuzhuralzoloto Group of Companies (YUGK) and affiliated firms last July on allegations that he had illegally taken control of the company by using his position in government. The assets were valued at more than 162 billion rubles ($2.22 billion). The auction to sell the 67.2% stake in YUGK was declared invalid after it failed to attract bidders during the May 8-15 submission window. (MT/AFP, 05.18.26)
• Despite war and sanctions, Russia dominates Europe’s high‑rise construction, accounting for 40 of the 50 tallest skyscrapers currently being built on the continent, led by Gazprom’s planned 703‑meter Lakhta Center 2 in St. Petersburg, which would become Europe’s tallest building, alongside mega‑projects such as Moscow’s Wildberries Tower and One Tower. (Intellinews, 05.17.26)
• When Ivan Zhdanov, the former head of the late Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) was let go from his job last fall, he was light on details of the situation. But in a tell-all interview last week, he made some shocking claims. Among them was an allegation of financial misconduct involving “fictitious employees.” (MT/AFP, 05.18.26)

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

• Russia’s ruble has become the world’s best‑performing currency against the dollar in Q2 2026, rising about 12% since early April to around 72.6 per dollar, its strongest level since early 2023. The rally is driven largely by higher hard‑currency oil revenues after the outbreak of war in the Middle East, which has pushed up global crude prices. Analysts cited by Russian and Western outlets say the ruble is now “overvalued,” with sanctions‑distorted markets and tight monetary policy squeezing exporters’ margins, pressuring the state budget, and eroding the competitiveness of Russian goods. (Bloomberg, 05.19.26; Meduza, 05.19.2
• President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly heralded Russia’s unemployment rate, which at 2.2% is among the lowest in the world. At the same time, the figure underscores the labor market has little room left to expand, limiting the economy’s capacity to grow. (Bloomberg, 05.19.26)
• Renat Suleymanov, a Communist Party State Duma deputy from Novosibirsk, warned that Russia’s economy “won’t survive a prolonged special military operation,” noting that around 40% of federal spending now goes to defense and security and that the 2026 budget allocates 12.93 trillion rubles to the military and 16.84 trillion including security—roughly one and a half times total social spending (10.8 trillion). (Meduza, 05.19.26)
• Ahead of the 2026 Duma elections—the first since the full‑scale invasion—Kremlin planners face a dilemma: they want war veterans in parliament as “heroes” but fear them as an unpredictable political force. Istories reports that an initial idea to bring up to 150 “SVO participants” into the Duma has shrunk to perhaps 30–70 seats, as officials worry veterans are “non‑systemic” and hard to control, unlike loyal youth cadres and technocrats. (Istories, 05.19.26) 
• Russian TV remains the dominant news source, used regularly by 56% of respondents (down 5 points in a month), while 37% get news from social networks and 25% from online media (down 16 points since February 2021), according to the Levada Center’s April 2026 survey. The regular audience of news Telegram channels has dropped sharply to 18% after the messenger’s blocking, from a peak of 30% in May 2025; 10% mainly use radio or Max channels for news, and only 5% rely on print media, domestic video platforms, or YouTube—whose news audience has fallen by 10 points since June 2024. (Levada Center, 05.19.26) 

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

• The Bank of Russia is continuing to sell gold from its reserves, cutting holdings by the end of April to the lowest level since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and potentially raising more than $4 billion. (Bloomberg, 05.20.26)
• Epidemiologist and infectious disease specialist Vadim Pokrovsky, one of the country’s leading experts on HIV/AIDS and a key figure in the Soviet and Russian response to the epidemic, has died at the age of 71. (MT/AFP, 05.21.26)

Thursday, May 21, 2026

• The Russian government has pushed back plans to introduce fees for mobile internet customers who use virtual private networks, or VPNs, Russian media reported Thursday, citing telecoms industry sources familiar with the matter. (MT/AFP, 05.21.26)

Friday, May 22, 2026

• Vladimir Putin’s approval metrics have slipped to their weakest levels in a year, according to new polling by Russia’s Public Opinion Foundation (FOM). In a survey conducted May 15–17, 71% of respondents said he is doing “rather well” as president—the lowest figure in 12 months—while 14% rated his performance “rather poor,” the highest in a year. Trust numbers also sagged: only 71% said they “rather trust” Putin (down from consistently above 76% earlier), and 17% said they “rather distrust” him, the highest share since late March. (Meduza, 05.22.26)

Defense and aerospace:

Monday, May 18, 2026

• Russian officials and media suggest Colonel General Alexander Lapin may replace Colonel General Andrei Kartapolov as chair of the State Duma Defense Committee after the 2026 elections, with United Russia considering running Lapin on its Tatarstan list. Kommersant and Vedomosti sources say the Defense Ministry has been “surprised” by some of Kartapolov’s public statements and United Russia may not renominate him from Moscow Oblast, though Kartapolov now insists he plans to seek a second term. (ISW, 05.18.26)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• A court in Dagestan has sentenced former State Duma deputy Magomed Gadzhiyev in absentia to life in a maximum‑security prison for organizing a double murder and a corporate raid, fining him 900,000 rubles; his brother Akhmed, a former port director and regional lawmaker, received 10 years. Investigators say Gadzhiyev ordered the 2011 killing of theologian Maksud Sadikov and his nephew and used his political clout to seize a 52% stake in ship‑repair firm Sudoremont. Once a prominent United Russia deputy and co‑author of laws on “foreign agents” and surveillance, he later fled abroad, was branded a “foreign agent,” and is now accused of aiding Ukraine and seeking Western protection. (Meduza, 05.19.26)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

Monday, May 18, 2026

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday dismissed the idea of Russia ever returning to the Eurovision Song Contest, saying it had become too “satanic.” (MT/AFP, 05.18.26)

Thursday, May 21, 2026

• Russia vowed Thursday to continue providing “active support” to Cuba and expressed “total solidarity” with the island nation after the U.S. indicted its former president on murder charges and deployed a naval carrier strike group to the Caribbean. (MT/AFP, 05.21.26) 
• Finnish authorities plan to deport an anti-war Russian man on May 28 after his asylum appeals were rejected, the exiled broadcaster TV Rain reported Wednesday, citing an exiled politician from St. Petersburg familiar with his case. Roman Golikov entered Finland on a tourist visa in September 2022 (MT/AFP, 05.21.26)
• Russian intelligence operations faced setbacks and showed new tactics this week. In Austria, a Vienna jury convicted former domestic intelligence officer Egisto Ott of spying for Moscow, abusing office and embezzlement, sentencing him to four years and one month in prison in the country’s largest postwar espionage trial (Financial Times, 05.21.26). 
• Ukraine’s ground war is seeing growing use of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) to evacuate wounded soldiers and move supplies along exposed front-line routes, freeing scarce manpower in a grinding war of attrition. A Wall Street Journal video report follows a Ukrainian drone commander using a tracked ground drone to pull a badly injured soldier from fire, and shows a domestic manufacturer racing to meet soaring military demand for these systems (Wall Street Journal, 05.20.26).

Ukraine:

Sunday, May 17, 2026

• The EU’s plan to cut steel import quotas by 47% from July 1, plus a 50% tariff on additional volumes, risks stripping Ukraine of up to €1bn in export revenue just as it struggles to fund its war effort. Kyiv ships most of its 2.65mn tons of annual steel exports to the EU and has few viable alternative markets, facing cheaper Russian and Turkish competitors and constant bombardment at home. Ukrainian officials say such deep cuts violate the EU–Ukraine trade deal and are pushing for softer, country‑specific quotas, while MEPs urge “very special treatment” for Ukraine as a candidate state at war. (Financial Times, 05.17.26)

Monday, May 18, 2026

• Ukraine’s High Anti‑Corruption Court approved a 140 million hryvnia (≈$10 million) bail for former presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak in the “Dynastiya” money‑laundering case, and he has now been released from pretrial detention while continuing to deny guilt. (Meduza, 05.18.26)
• Hungary and Ukraine will start high‑level talks this week on the rights of Ukraine’s roughly 100,000 ethnic Hungarians in Zakarpattia, in what both sides present as the first step toward repairing relations badly damaged under former prime minister Viktor Orbán, whose pro‑Russian government blocked EU aid and sanctions for Kyiv while running an aggressive anti‑Ukraine campaign; the new government of Prime Minister Péter Magyar has already summoned the Russian ambassador over a drone strike, a move Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed as an “important message.” (Washington Post/AP, 05.18.26) 

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

• Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service says it has detained 68,500 people trying to cross the border illegally since Russia’s full‑scale invasion began in February 2022, including about 4,000 caught at official checkpoints and the rest on “green” stretches or in the border zone. Nearly 30,000 were stopped on the Romanian border and 21,000 on the Moldovan border; officials note attempts peaked in earlier war years and have declined since August 2025, though they rise slightly in warmer months. (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.19.26)
• Ukraine’s National Anti‑Corruption Bureau and Special Anti‑Corruption Prosecutor’s Office carried out searches at the Supreme Court as part of a widening probe into high‑level judicial corruption. Investigators said they were conducting actions at the workplaces, homes and in vehicles of several current and former Supreme Court judges, including ex–chief justice Vsevolod Knyazev, already on trial in the landmark 2023 bribery case involving alleged payments linked to oligarch Kostyantyn Zhevago. (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.19.26)
• Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) said on Tuesday afternoon they were conducting investigative actions as part of a corruption case involving the Supreme Court. In a joint statement, NABU and SAPO said the searches and investigative measures were being carried out at the workplaces, residences and vehicles of several current and former Supreme Court judges. (Kyiv Post, 05.19.26)

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

• Ukraine’s state budget revenues rose 6.1% year‑on‑year in Q1 2026 to about $23.5 billion, supported above all by international grants, which jumped 72.1% to reach $4 billion; but defense spending and delays in external financing began to intensify pressure on expenditures toward the end of the quarter, the KSE Institute’s Ukrainian Recovery Digest reports. (KSE Institute, Ukrainian Recovery Digest, 05.2026)
• Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigation charged a senior sergeant and reconnaissance platoon commander with desertion and fraud, alleging he stayed in Kyiv on personal business from September 2024 to February 2026 instead of returning from temporary deployment to his marine unit in Kramatorsk, all while drawing pay and combat allowances totaling over 460,000 hryvnias; he has partially compensated the damage and, according to investigators, has now returned to his unit, with the remainder to be repaid via wage garnishment. (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.20.26)
• Businessman Timur Mindich, charged in a major corruption case, filed a lawsuit against President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeking to overturn sanctions imposed on him last fall, according to a court registry. Mindich, a close associate of the president, is the alleged ringleader of the $100 million corruption scheme centered around the state nuclear monopoly Energoatom. After the revelations, Zelenskyy imposed sanctions on Nov. 13 on Mindich and businessman Oleksandr Tsukerman, who is also implicated in the case. (Kyiv Independent, 05.20.26)
• [Ukraine] MP Honcharenko… reported the detention of several high-ranking National Police officers in a bribery case. Among the suspects—assistant to Deputy Head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Vasyl Teterya (V. Vorobey). Also on the list are the head of police of Ivano-Frankivsk region Bezpalko and his deputy Yatsyuk. In addition, the first deputy head of police of Ternopil region Tkachyk and the deputy head of police of Zhytomyr region Hulevatyi came under suspicion. According to Honcharenko, all have been notified of suspicion under the article on receiving unlawful benefit. (Antikor, 05.20.26)

Thursday, May 21, 2026

• Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico rejected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s idea of granting Ukraine “associated membership” in the EU as an interim status, saying “either we accept someone into the EU or not” and that “there is no atmosphere” in today’s EU for such steps; instead, he argued that Montenegro, Albania, and Serbia should be admitted to the union “as soon as possible,” while Ukraine must follow the standard, long‑term accession path. (European Pravda/Ukrainska Pravda, 05.21.26) 
• Ukrainian‑Israeli businessman Timur Mindich, a close associate of Volodymyr Zelenskyy and a central figure in the Energoatom kickback scandal, has filed a lawsuit in Ukraine’s Supreme Court challenging a November 13, 2025 presidential decree that imposed sanctions on him; investigators allege he ran a scheme forcing Energoatom contractors to pay 10–15% of contract value and that he fled Ukraine hours before searches began, while Kyiv has since requested his extradition from Israel. (Meduza, 05.21.26)

Friday, May 22, 2026

• The National Anti-Corruption Bureau and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office have notified the former head of the State Reserve Agency and three other suspects of suspicion in a case involving large-scale embezzlement of state enterprise funds. According to the investigation, the scheme caused the state losses of approximately UAH 36 million. (Antikor, 05.22.26)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

Saturday, May 16, 2026

• President Vladimir Putin signed a decree aimed at simplifying the process for residents of Moldova’s pro-Moscow region of Transnistria to obtain Russian citizenship, drawing a sharp response from Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 05.16.26)

Monday, May 18, 2026

• Lithuanian authorities are investigating how a Ukrainian drone ended up crashing near the village of Samane in Utena district—without exploding and without being detected by radar—amid growing concerns that Russian electronic warfare is diverting Ukrainian drones into Baltic and Nordic airspace. (Meduza, 05.18.26)

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

• Estonia’s defense minister said a NATO warplane shot down a drone over the country for the first time as the Baltic nations contend with incursions of their airspace by unmanned aerial vehicles. “Our air radars and air force systems identified a possible aerial threat before it reached Estonia,” Hanno Pevkur told reporters in Tallinn on Tuesday, adding that a missile fired by a Romanian F-16 fighter jet stationed in Lithuania hit the drone. The Baltic countries, members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union, have repeatedly seen stray drones fly into their airspace with Russia’s war on Ukraine in its fifth year. Latvia said two Ukrainian craft crashed on May 7 in the eastern part of the country after Russian interference, which triggered the prime minister’s resignation. (Bloomberg, 05.19.26)
• Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claimed Tuesday that the Ukrainian military plans to use Latvian territory as a launching ground for its ongoing drone attacks against Russia, an allegation that officials in the Baltic country quickly dismissed. In a statement, the SVR accused Latvia’s government of agreeing to let Ukraine fire drones from inside the country “despite… fears of becoming a target for retaliatory strikes by Moscow.” (MT/AFP, 05.19.26)

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

• Russia’s military is preparing an “appropriate” response to Ukraine’s alleged use of Baltic territory to launch drone attacks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday. “This problem exists, and our relevant services, primarily the military in this case, are closely monitoring the situation and formulating our country’s necessary response,” Peskov told the pro-Kremlin tabloid Izvestia, though he did not specify the scope of the measures. The warning comes a day after Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) on Tuesday threatened Latvia, stating its NATO membership would not “protect” it from Moscow’s retaliation for Riga allegedly allowing Ukraine to fire drones from inside its borders (MT/AFP, 05.20.26)
• Lithuania’s president and top officials were rushed to shelters after an air alert was announced in the capital over a suspected unidentified drone that crossed into the Baltic country. NATO warplanes were scrambled as the nation’s military told residents in the district of Vilnius on Wednesday to go down to shelters, the first such instance in the capital. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda and Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene were among those evacuated, the newswire BNS reported. Lithuania’s airspace was also closed. The incident reinforced concerns across the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s eastern flank, which has been beefing up its military and raising its level of defense preparedness after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. (Bloomberg, 05.20.26)
• Lithuania ordered residents of Vilnius to shelters, briefly closed the capital’s airspace, and moved its president and prime minister to secure locations after a drone alert linked to activity just across the border in Belarus—its first such capital‑wide alarm since Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine—underscoring NATO’s eastern jitters as Ukrainian drones repeatedly stray into Baltic airspace amid Russian electronic jamming and both Russia and Ukraine launch mass drone salvos, including a 154‑drone Russian attack overnight in which Ukraine says it shot down 131. (Washington Post/AP, 05.20.26)

Thursday, May 21, 2026

• Baltic and Nordic states are confronting a rise in stray Ukrainian drones entering their airspace as Kyiv attacks Russian oil-export ports on the Baltic Sea. Recent incidents include Ukrainian drones crashing in Estonia and Latvia and being shot down by Romanian jets over Estonia, while Lithuania briefly ordered citizens in Vilnius to take cover amid an unidentified drone alert. Officials blame Russian jamming and spoofing for diverting the drones and are pressing Ukraine to keep strikes farther from NATO borders, even as they reject Moscow’s claims that Kyiv is launching attacks from Baltic territory (Washington Post, 05.21.26).
  • Latvia reported at least one more drone entering its airspace—its third such incident in as many days—prompting a temporary suspension of train services in several border districts with Russia and Belarus, as Baltic officials blame Russian electronic warfare for diverting Ukrainian drones into NATO airspace and recall that earlier incursions triggered the collapse of Latvia’s ruling coalition. (Meduza, 05.21.26)
• Russia’s agricultural watchdog announced Wednesday a temporary restriction on all flower imports originating from or transiting through Armenia, a move that comes amid fraying relations between the two countries. Rosselkhoznadzor’s announcement follows weeks of diplomatic friction ahead of parliamentary elections in Armenia next month. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s party faces off on June 7 against an array of opposition parties dominated by pro-Russia groups. (MT/AFP, 05.21.26)

Friday, May 22, 2026

• Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna accused Russia of “guiding” stray Ukrainian military drones toward NATO countries after a series of airspace incursions caused disruption in the Baltic states this week. (Bloomberg, 05.22.26)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Visiting the Russia–China Expo in Harbin, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev said Moscow and Beijing must keep exchanging technology because “technologies create opportunities for development,” but admitted his initial reaction to the exhibits was mixed: “Honestly, when we walked around and I saw that we only have honey and crabs, and our friends [from China have] drones and robots, I got a little upset." (TASS, 05.17.26) 
• When asked to assess the Putin-Xi summit, Harvard Professor and former director of the Belfer Center Graham Allison said Xi hosting Trump and then Putin “was not accidental.” So sometimes people call it [the relationship between China and Russia] a marriage of convenience, but I'd say it's becoming increasingly convenient for each of them,” Allison said. He added, “Russia needs China much more than China needs Russia, given its size, its economy, its vigor. China needs Russia as the back side of its war in Ukraine, where China has been a major supporter, both economically and technically, for the effort.” (BBC via Belfer Center’s communications department, 05.21.26) Machine-transcribed
• Prominent economist Adam Tooze said with regard to Russia’s wartime economy “The important point to emphasize is that this is no kind of collapse. This is a slowdown, a shifting of gear, and continuing pressure on every front within the economy as the demands of the war take their toll.” (Foreign Policy, 05.21.26)
• Prominent economist Adam Tooze said with regard to Ukraine’s drone innovation vs. NATO and traditional arms makers “The reality is that when Ukrainian units deployed in Exercise Hedgehog in Estonia in 2025 against 16,000 NATO troops from 12 countries, they completely annihilated them with this ‘primitive, simplistic, improvised’ equipment that Rheinmetall has no time for. The reality here is it’s the Ukrainian experience that’s going to change the game on the battlefield.” (Foreign Policy, 05.21.26)

Endnotes

1. Below is a selection of documents regarding Putin’s visit to China on May 19-20, 2026, posted on the official website of the Russian president and in China’s official information resources, such as state news agency Xinhua and the website of PRF MFA.

   PRC:

• “Xi holds talks with Putin in Beijing,” Xinhua, 05.20.26. 
• “Chinese premier meets Russian president,” Xinhua, 05.20.26. 
• “President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin Together Attend the Photo Exhibition ‘China-Russia Everlasting Friendship: A Model of Major-Country Relations’,” PRC Foreign Ministry, 05.20.26.
  “President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin Meet the Press,” PRC Foreign Ministry, 05.20.26.“President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin Jointly Attend and Address the Opening Ceremony of the China-Russia Years of Education,” PRC Foreign Ministry, 05.20.26.
• “Xinhua Commentary: Xi-Putin meeting charts new strategic course for China-Russia ties,” Xinhua, 05.21.26.
• “President Xi Jinping Has a Tea Chat with Russian President Vladimir Putin,” PRC Foreign Ministry, 05.21.26..” 
•  RF: 
• “Joint Declaration of the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China on the Establishment of a Multipolar World and a New Type of International Relations,” Kremlin.ru, 05.20.26. In Russian
• Vladimir Putin’s “Meeting with Premier of the State Council of China Li Qiang,” Kremlin.ru, 05.20.26. 
•  “Press statements following Russia-China talks,” Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, Kremlin.ru, 05.20.26. 
• “Ceremony launching Cross Years of Russia-China Cooperation in Education,” Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, Kremlin.ru, 05.20.26.
• Vladimir Putin’s “Tea reception with Xi Jinping,” Kremlin.ru, 05.20.26. 

2. The Economist’s estimate as of May 19, 2026, is that Ukraine gained 204 sq km (79 sq miles) in the past 30 days.
3. Ibid.
4. Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState reported in the updates of its map during the period of May 12–19, 2026 that Ukrainian armed forces liberated one settlement and cleared the territory in another settlement. The same period saw Russian armed forces advance near or in 8 Ukrainian settlements: on May 12, Russian armed forces advanced near Zakitne; on May 13, Russian armed forces advanced near Pryvillia and Novomarkove; on May 14, Ukrainian armed forces liberated Odradne, while Russian armed forces advanced near Minkivka; on May 15, no updates were reported; on May 16, Russian armed forces advanced near Zybyno; on May 17, Russian armed forces advanced near Charivne; on May 18, Russian armed forces advanced near Pokrovsk; on May 19, Ukrainian armed forces cleared the territory in Stepnohirsk, while Russian armed forces advanced in Rodynske.
5. Skim or listen to the following items for analysis of Russia-China relations.

• Graham Allison’s 05.21.26 interview to BBC on Xi-Putin summit.
• “Beijing’s unlikely bet on Russia may yet pay off,” Alexander Gabuev, Financial Times, 05.21.26.
• “From bitter coffee to all-terrain vehicles: China-Russia trade ties flourish,” Eleanor Olcott and Haohsiang Ko, Financial Times, 05.20.26.
• “What Does Putin Want From Xi?,” Alexandra Sharp, Foreign Policy World Brief, 05.19.26.
• "Geometry of Geopolitics," Dmitry Trenin, Russian International Affairs Council, 05.12.26.“As a Weakened Putin Follows Trump to Beijing, Iran War Offers an Opening,” Ivan Nechepurenko and David Pierson, New York Times, 05.20.26.
• "The Trump-Xi Summit: Behind the Curtain," Graham Allison, The National Interest, 05.13.26. 
• “Beijing can no longer treat Moscow as a junior partner: Why the West still misunderstands the Russia-China relationship,” Alexey Martynov, RT, 05.16.26.
• “How China quietly helps Russia in Ukraine,” The Economist, 05.20.26.
• “May Summits: Is There a Link Between the Russian and U.S. Leaders’ Visits to Beijing?,” Ivan Zuenko, Profile.ru, 05.18.26.
• "Doctrines of Progress: Trump, Xi, Putin, Modi," Ivan Timofeev, Valdai Club/Russian International Affairs Council, 05.13.26.
• “Dangling the Carrot: Moscow’s China Card in Negotiations with Trump”, Alexander Gabuev, StarkTalk, May 2026.
• “China Looms Large, but Drives Little”, Samuel Charap, StarkTalk, May 2026.
• “Russia and China’s ‘No-Limits’ Trade Partnership Is Losing Steam,” The Moscow Times, 05.22.26.

6. Russia–China trade shrank by 6.9% in 2025 to $228.1 billion, according to China’s General Administration of Customs, cited by TASS. Chinese exports to Russia fell 10.4% to $103.3 billion, while imports from Russia declined 3.9 percent to $124.79 billion. Russia still ran a surplus of $21.49 billion in trade with China over the year, up 55.4% from 2024. In December 2025, bilateral turnover jumped 19.6% month-on-month to $24.39 billion, with Chinese exports to Russia rising 22.7% to $11.71 billion and Russian exports to China up 17% to $12.68 billion. (TASS, 01.14.26)
7. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping met in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People for about 90 minutes in restricted format before expanded talks.” (Meduza, 05.20.26)