4 Things to Know 

1. Vladimir Putin wrapped up his two-day state visit to China on May 17,  emphasizing the two countries’ burgeoning strategic ties as well as his own personal relationship with Xi Jinping as they sought to present an alternative to U.S. global influence, the AP reported. On the first day of the visit, Putin joined Xi in signing a bilateral statement that warned against “aggravation of interstate contradictions, including between nuclear powers,” and reaffirmed the P5’s 2022 statement that “there can be no winners in a nuclear war and it should never be fought.” The May 16 statement said that Russia and China “reaffirm their serious concern about the U.S. attempts to upset the strategic balance to secure a decisive military advantage for itself” “by creating a global missile defense system and deploying its elements in various regions of the world and in space.” “The Parties ... intend to increase interaction and tighten coordination in order to counter Washington’s destructive and hostile course toward the so-called ‘dual containment’ of our countries,” Xi and Putin said in the statement. The two leaders also paid lip service to a "political solution" of Russia’s conflict with Ukraine, while Xi also said he and Putin had agreed to five principles of building relations. While heaping praise on Putin during their multiple interactions on May 16, Xi did not publicly reaffirm his commitment to the "no limits" partnership between China and Russia, which he had subscribed to shortly before Putin's invasion of Ukraine and then did not mention again after the invasion commenced.*
2. Russian forces have gained 145 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 2 square miles in the past month, according to the May 14, 2024 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. The amount of territory Russian forces have occupied over the last several weeks, including gains made during their latest offensive in the northeastern region of Kharkiv, is about as large as the territory Ukraine retook during its lackluster spring counteroffensive in 2023, according to WP. Ukrainian forces were caught unprepared for that offensive, which was launched on May 10 and which captured 10 settlements, according to WSJ and FT. On May 16, Volodymyr Zelenskyy stressed that the situation in the Kharkiv direction was very serious and that Ukrainian forces cannot afford to lose the city of Kharkiv, but then claimed on May 17 that Ukrainian troops have successfully “stabilized” the situation, according to ISW and Meduza. Speaking from China on May 17, Putin claimed Russia had no plans to capture this city, adding “as of today.” 
3. Ukrainian officials have asked their American and NATO counterparts to help train 150,000 new recruits closer to the front line for faster deployment because Ukraine’s manpower shortage has reached a critical point, and its position on the battlefield in recent weeks has seriously worsened, NYT reported. Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said May 16 that a NATO deployment of trainers to Ukraine appeared inevitable, according to this newspaper. In addition to asking for Western trainers in Ukraine, Ukrainian officials are also making a new push to get the Biden administration to lift its ban on using U.S.-made weapons to strike inside Russia, according to Politico.
4. On May 12, Putin signed a decree appointing a new government, reappointing Mikhail Mishustin as his PM, but replacing Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov as his new defense minister and demoting long-time confidant Nikolai Patrushev from the post of Security Council secretary to that of a presidential aide in charge of shipbuilding. Putin said that the main task for Belousov—a career economist—is to make sure Russia’s higher defense spending is used “wisely and efficiently,” according to Bloomberg. While transferring Shoigu from the defense ministry to the post of Security Council secretary to make way for Belousov, Putin avoided criticizing Shoigu even as his investigative committee probed one of Shoigu’s deputies for corruption. Putin has also made it clear that he is not planning to dismiss Valery Gerasimov from the post of the chief of the General Staff. Signs that Putin may be discontent with the way Shoigu’s team managed the MoD’s spending emerged last month when investigators arrested his deputy Timur Ivanov over alleged bribery. That arrest was then followed by an announcement of an investigation into the alleged embezzlement of money meant for procuring bullet-proof vests for combatants, which could reportedly end up targeting another of Shoigu’s then-deputies, Alexei Krivoruchko. Had Shoigu’s military command skills mattered, Putin would have probably fired both Shoigu (and Gerasimov) after the failure of the initial blitzkrieg in Spring 2022 or, perhaps, after Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive in Fall 2022. That Putin gave Shoigu this new, though less important, job rather than fire him into oblivion and that Patrushev’s son Dmitry will serve in the new cabinet as a deputy premier indicates that Putin continues to ensure that the departure of key figures in his team whose performance he is longer satisfied with is incremental, so that they do not feel alienated/consider plotting against him.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• South Korea is closely investigating the possible use of a North Korean rocket launcher by Russia in an attack on Ukraine, Yonhap reported, citing the spy agency. There was circumstantial evidence that weapons Russia used in the attack included a 122 millimeter North Korean multiple-rocket launcher from the 1970s. (Bloomberg, 05.11.24)
• Western countries are trying to replace a U.N. body that monitors compliance with international sanctions on North Korea which was disbanded after Moscow blocked an extension of the panel’s mandate. (FT, 05.15.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Ukraine on May 16 accused Russia of detaining and killing civilians in the border town of Vovchansk in the northeastern Kharkiv region, where Russian forces launched a ground assault last week. (MT/AFP, 05.16.24)
• Ukraine has evacuated 8,000 people from the Kharkiv region during a five-day assault, according to the national emergency services. (FP, 05.16.24)
  • The wave of displaced people from this region’s Vovchansk, located just five miles from the Russian border, and surrounding settlements is reminiscent of those early days of the invasion in February 2022—but this attack by Russia is even worse, the evacuees said. (WP, 05.14.24)
• Only half the Ukrainian refugees who currently live in Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic are ready to return home if conditions such as security, normal operation of critical infrastructure, availability of housing and completion of a full-scale invasion exist. This follows from the results of a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology conducted in April. (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.14.24)
• As a result of Russian aggression in Ukraine, 25% of fixed networks were damaged, 4,300 mobile communication base stations were destroyed or damaged, according to Ukrainian deputy PM Mikhail Fedorov. (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.15.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month, Russian forces have gained 145 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 2 square miles, according to the May 14, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force, 05.14.24)
  • The amount of territory Russia has occupied over the last several weeks is about as large as the territory Ukraine retook during its lackluster spring counteroffensive in 2023. (WP, 05.17.24)
  • The amount of Russian forces deployed to the Kharkiv offensive—two army corps or roughly 35,000—was not enough to attempt the capture of Kharkiv city, officials and analysts said. A Ukrainian defense forces source told the FT that Russia would need at least four times as many troops as it currently had for a ground offensive on Kharkiv, and maintained that Moscow’s goal was to stretch Ukraine’s forces. Moscow may also be seeking to create a buffer zone to better protect the Russian city of Belgorod, located 70km away from Kharkiv. (FT, 05.12.24, FT, 05.12.24, FT, 05.13.24)
  • Russian forces reportedly launched offensive operations in the Kharkiv Oblast before they had completed bringing the Northern Grouping of Forces up to its reported planned end strength and have so far only committed a limited amount of combat power to offensive operations in the area. (ISW, 05.11.24)
  • Russia’s new offensive across Ukraine’s northeastern border had been expected for months — yet it still surprised the Ukrainian soldiers stationed there to defend against it. Ukraine’s 125th Territorial Defense Brigade — stretched thin along a roughly 27-mile stretch of the Kharkiv region’s border with Russia — used reconnaissance drones to monitor, daily, how Moscow was steadily building up forces for a possible attack. But the morning it happened, May 10, the brigade lost all its video feeds due to Russian electronic jamming. Its Starlink devices failed, the first time it was knocked out completely for them since Russia’s invasion. (WP, 05.17.24)
  • When the Russian assault in northern Ukraine began last week, Ukrainian forces were caught unprepared, according to military analysts—with units out of position and without substantial fortifications in some border areas, including in Vovchansk. More considerable fortifications have been constructed deeper into the country, analysts say. (WSJ, 05.15.24)
  • Russia’s ongoing offensive in Ukraine doesn’t have the legs for a breakthrough, NATO’s supreme allied commander for Europe said May 16. “I know the Russians don't have the numbers necessary to do a strategic breakthrough,” Christopher Cavoli told reporters after a meeting of the alliance’s defense chiefs at NATO headquarters in Brussels. “They don't have the skill and the capability to do it, to operate at the scale necessary to exploit any breakthrough to strategic advantage," said the U.S. general, but added: "They do have the ability to make local advances and they have done some of that.” (Politico, 05.16.24)
  • Deputy Spokesperson of the U.S. State Department Vedant Patel said on May 16 with regard to the fighting in Ukraine: “Obviously the situation is incredibly dire.” (State.gov, 05.16.24)
  • Just 18 months ago, White House and Pentagon officials debated whether Russia’s forces in Ukraine might collapse and be pushed out of the country entirely. (NYT, 05.15.24)
  • “I think it would be naive to say that Ukraine can return the occupied territories in the foreseeable future. Russia will not just give up the occupied territories,” Czech President Petr Pavel noted. (Korrespondent.net, 05.15.24)
• After being attacked by a drone on May 9, Russia's Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat oil processing, petrochemical and fertilizer complex located in the Bashkortostan region stopped its catalytic cracker. (Reuters, 05.11.24)
• On May 10, John Kirby, spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council, told reporters Russia was likely to increase the “intensity” of its operations near Kharkiv, in an attempt to create a “shallow buffer zone” along the Ukrainian border with Russia. He said that ''Russia will likely increase the intensity of fires and commit additional troops'' to establish a shallow buffer zone but added ''we do not anticipate any major breakthroughs.'' (FT, 05.10.24, NYT, 05.10.24)
• On the night of May 10 to 11, Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against a Russian oil refinery in the Volgograd Oblast. Sources in Ukrainian special services told Ukrainian outlet Suspilne that Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) conducted drone strikes against a Lukoil refinery in Volgograd Oblast and damaged the AVT-1 and AVT-6 oil processing facilities and control cables for the facility's air coolers.  (ISW, 05.11.24) 
• On May 11, Ukranian OSINT group DeepState confirmed reports that the Russian forces had occupied Strelecha, Pylne, Krasne, Borysivka, Ohirtseve and Pletenivka on its Telegram channel. The Russian forces also advanced on Krasnohorivka, near Volodymyrivka, according to DeepState, which regularly maps out its assessments of changes in the warring sides’ control of territory. (RM, 05.11.24)
• On May 11, Russian forces were reported to have taken over the villages of Borysivka, Ogurtsovo, Pletenivka, Pyl'na and Strilecha in the Kharkiv region and the village of Keramik in the Ocheretyne area of the Donetsk region. As of the morning of May 11, the Russian forces were estimated to be in control of at least 30 square kilometers in the Kharkiv region. (NYT, 05.11.24, WP, 05.11.24)
• On May 12, Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on his people not to panic amid Russia’s ongoing advance in the Kharkiv region. Ukrainians should trust in their army defending the country’s northeastern border area and not “yield to emotions” despite the fierce fight there and the “extremely difficult” situation on the outskirts of Vovchansk, Zelenskyy said. Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said that Russian forces were able to achieve “partial” success in several areas. He didn’t elaborate on the exact locations. (Bloomberg, 05.12.24)
• On May 12, Syrskyi wrote on his Telegram channel thatthe situation in Kharkiv Oblast has significantly worsened and that the Russian forces were actively attacking Ukrainian units in several directions with the “aim of advancing deep into the territory” of Ukraine. (RM, 05.12.24, Bloomberg, 05.12.24)
• On May 12, Russia’s Defense Ministry said its troops had captured four more settlements — all but one located directly north of Kharkiv. Aid workers confirmed that Russian troops had advanced deeper inside Ukrainian territory and were now threatening several small towns on the outskirts of Kharkiv. (NYT, 05.12.24)
• On May 12, Russia accused Ukraine of hitting a multistory building in the Russian city of Belgorod, about 45 miles from Kharkiv. Russia's Emergencies Ministry said on May 14 that the number of people killed in a residential building collapse in the city of Belgorod two days before had risen to 17. (NYT, 05.12.24, RFE/RL, 05.14.24)
• As of May 12, maps compiled by DeepState indicated that Russian forces have captured three more villages in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region, and a battle is under way for control of Hlyboke, a village 40km north of Kharkiv. Geolocated footage published on May 13 shows that Russian forces have advanced into Hlyboke (north of Lyptsi) and raised a flag in the center of the village. Since launching the operation on May 10, Russian troops have occupied about 10 settlements across 100 sq km of territory along Ukraine’s northern border. (FT, 05.13.24, ISW, 05.13.24)
• On May 12, Ukraine’s OSINT group DeepState said Russia now occupies six villages in the area north of Kharkiv. (Bloomberg, 05.12.24)
• On May 12, one Ukrainian commander took the unusual step of blasting his colleagues for what he said were terrible border defenses. “The first line of fortifications and mines just didn’t exist,” Denys Yaroslavsky, a reconnaissance commander, wrote on Facebook. “The enemy freely entered the gray area, across the border line, which in principle should not have been gray!” (NYT, 05.12.24)
• On May 13, Ukrainian civilians said fighting had broken out near Lyptsi, a village north of Kharkiv, suggesting that Russian forces may have advanced within 10 miles of the city. “The enemy is currently achieving tactical success,” the General Staff of Ukraine acknowledged in a statement early May 13. (NYT, 05.13.24)
• In its May 13 evening briefing, Ukraine’s general staff said that its forces had retreated to reduce casualties around Lyman in northern Donetsk and west of Avdiivka in the south of the region. (FT, 05.14.24)
  • After the fall of Avdiivka to Russian forces in February, the small town of Ochertyne served as a Ukrainian military strong point along a highway. What had started as a small Russian thrust into the tiny town of Ocheretyne in April was growing into a substantial breakthrough. The sudden Russian advance through Ocheretyne, about nine miles northwest of Avdiivka, in late April, illustrates how even a small crack in the line can have cascading effects. (NYT, 05.14.24)
• On May 13, the Ukrainian army said it had replaced its commander for Kharkiv in an effort to boost its defense of the northeastern region. Mikhail Drapaty replaced Yuri Galushkin.  (FT, 05.13.24, Korrespondent.net, 05.13.24)
• On May 13, Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, said Ukraine’s military is confronting a “critical” situation in the country’s northeast. “The situation is on the edge,” Budanov said. “Every hour this situation moves toward critical.” (NYT, 05.13.24)
• On May 13, Russia's Defense Ministry said its anti-air systems had shot down 31 Ukrainian drones over several Russian regions and annexed Crimea. (MT/AFP, 05.13.24)
• On May 13, a Ukrainian drone strike in western Russia’s Kursk region killed one woman and injured three others, regional authorities said. (MT/AFP, 05.13.24)
• On May 14, Russian strikes on the center of Kharkiv injured 20 people, officials said. (MT/AFP, 05.14.24)
• In its May 14 morning briefing, Ukraine’s general staff admitted it had made positional changes and Russia had “partial” successes in a few areas. It said Ukrainian forces had lost the village of Lukyantsi in Kharkiv and edged forward in two places in Donetsk near Ocheretyne and Kurakhove. According to the Ukrainian open-source group DeepState, Russia occupied two villages and part of the town of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region on May 13. (FT, 05.14.24)
• On May 14 afternoon, Budanov claimed that the situation in Kharkiv Oblast began stabilizing on the night of May 13 into May 14. Budanov also said Russia was planning a similar operation in the Sumy region, to the west of its current Kharkiv offensive. The Ukrainian General Staff and Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lt. Col. Nazar Voloshyn claimed that Ukrainian forces have begun to "clear" Vovchansk by targeting visible Russian assault groups in the settlement. (FT, 05.14.24, ISW, 05.14.24)
• On May 15, Zelenskyy cancelled his upcoming visits abroad as Ukraine’s military leadership races to thwart Russia’s new offensive. While the Russians’ advance south of the border village of Pylna appears to have slowed, maps published on May 15 by DeepState showed they had made further encroachments into Vovchansk and had occupied an area in the west of the town. Oleksii Kharkivskyi, head of the police force in Vovchansk, said Russian soldiers took up positions in the town. As of May 15, Russian forces were fighting inside the northeastern border city of Vovchansk. (FT, 05.15.24, WSJ, 05.15.24)
• On May 15, Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed it had captured two settlements in the northeast, as well as the village of Robotyne in the south. The claims could not be independently confirmed, and did not match what the open-source maps showed. (NYT, 05.15.24)
• On May 15, Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed Russian advances in the Kharkiv region. "In all directions our troops are constantly, every day, improving their positions," Putin told Russia's military leaders, including new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, in a televised meeting. (MT/AFP, 05.15.24)
• On May 14-15, Russian air defense systems intercepted dozens of Ukrainian drones and U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles overnight and early May 15 morning, Russia’s Defense Ministry said. The attacks caused temporary airport closures in the central republic of Tatarstan, as well as explosions at a fuel depot in the southern city of Rostov, where the military headquarters overseeing Moscow’s invasion is based. (MT/AFP, 05.15.24)
• On May 16, Zelenskyy stressed that the situation in the Kharkiv direction is very serious and that Ukrainian forces cannot afford to lose Kharkiv City. (ISW, 05.16.24)
• On May 16, Oleksiy Kharkivskiy, a police officer evacuating civilians, said the northern parts of Vovchansk were now in the sights of Russian tanks, but not fully controlled by the Russian Army. (NYT, 05.16.24)
• On May 16, Ukraine said it was slowing Russia’s push near Kharkiv, where the president met with top commanders, but still faced pitched battles in that area and farther south. Zelenskyy traveled to the embattled region of Kharkiv on May 16, meeting with top commanders. (NYT, 05.16.24)
• As of May 16, Russian forces continued efforts to solidify gains on the outskirts of Vovchansk and to advance deeper into the settlement, according to Ukrainian OSINT group DeepState’s Telegram account. The Russians were also trying to secure gains in the settlements of Bugruvatka and Gatishche, while also fighting for the village of Staritsa, according to DeepState. (RM, 05.16.24)
• Speaking from China during a state visit on May 17, Putin himself said the operation was only to create buffer zone to protect Belgorod after repeated attacks on the city. “As for Kharkiv, there are no such plans as of today.” (WP, 05.17.24)
• On May 17, Russia was reported to have expanded the combat zone by 70 kilometers in its ongoing offensive in Ukraine’s north to force Ukraine to use reserve brigades. Heavy fighting continued, according to Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said. (RBC.ua, 05.17.24)
• On May 17, Zelenskyy claimed Ukrainian troops have successfully “stabilized” the situation along the northern front in the Kharkiv region. “The furthest point of their advance is 10 kilometers [about six miles],” Zelenskyy said. (Meduza, 05.17.24) Zelenskyy announced that the Defense Forces of Ukraine successfully halted the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region on May 10.
• On May 17, Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine had built three lines of defense in the north and Russian forces only reached the first line. (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.17.24)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry said it had shot down more than 100 Ukrainian drones on May 17, a figure that would represent one of Ukraine’s largest air assaults against Russia in months. A Ukrainian security official said Ukraine was behind the attack. (NYT, 05.17.24)
  • On May 17, Russian-backed authorities in the occupied Crimean city of Sevastopol said an overnight attack by Ukraine's military had hit an electricity substation, leading to rolling blackouts throughout the city that is home to part of the Russian naval fleet. (NYT, 05.17.24)
• On May 17, Ukrainian air defenses shot down all 20 drones that were launched by Russia at five of its regions overnight. The drones were downed over the Kharkiv, Poltava, Vinnytsya, Odesa and Mykolayiv regions, the Ukrainian Air Force reported. (RFE/RL, 05.17.24)
• Over the past six months, Russia fired around 45% more drones and missiles than in the proceeding six-month period, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of daily data from the Ukrainian Air Force Command. Russia fired almost double the number of Shahed drones, at 2,628, in the past six months compared with the previous period, the data shows.  It also fired 114 ballistic and 46 hypersonic Kinzhal and Zircon missiles, compared with 33 and 27, respectively, for the previous six months. (WSJ, 05.13.24)
• In the past six months, Ukraine intercepted around 46% of Russian missiles, compared with 73% in the preceding six-month period, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of daily data from the Ukrainian Air Force Command. Last month, the interception rate fell to 30% of missiles. The interception rate for long-range Shahed drones, which are easier to shoot down, fell just 1 percentage point to 82% in the past six months. (WSJ, 05.13.24)
• On May 17, Zelenskyy signed into law a bill allowing some Ukrainian convicts to serve in the country’s military in exchange for the possibility of parole at the end of their service, a move that highlight’s Kyiv’s desperate attempts to replenish its forces after more than two years of war. (NYT, 05.17.24)
• In Ukraine, about 5,000 prisoners have agreed to go to the front in exchange for parole if the corresponding law is passed. (Korrespondent.net, 05.17.24)
• Sources on the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine predict that the decision to mobilize from the age of 25 could add approximately 100,000 young soldiers to the Ukrainian army. (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.16.24)
• At least 16 citizens of Sri Lanka fighting as mercenaries have been killed in Russia's war against Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 05.15.24)
• In private, some of Biden’s aides worry that just as the United States has learned key lessons from the war — about technologies that work and those that do not — so has Putin. Artillery and drones provided by the United States and NATO have been taken out by Russian electronic warfare techniques, which came to the battlefield late but have proven surprisingly effective. (NYT, 05.15.24)
• On Maxar imagery, two MiG-31s and one Su-27 have been completely destroyed, and a MiG-29 damaged, at the Russian Air Force's Belbek Airbase in occupied Crimea by Ukrainian strikes. A fuel storage near the main airbase runway was also destroyed, and debris continued to burn in the aftermath. (Christiaan Triebert’s X-account, 05.17.24)
• Western officials say Russia has successfully combined camera footage with more sophisticated efforts such as satellite surveillance to trace shipments of hardware and ammunition from Poland and elsewhere to secret warehouses in Ukraine, where they have been hit by drones and guided missiles. "These cheap and seemingly bumbling efforts are nothing to be sneered at," a senior Western military intelligence official said. "They are part of a large toolbox of intelligence gathering that has helped Russia destroy key materiel with minimum investment." (WSJ, 05.15.24)
• The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) says it has thwarted a plot by agents of the Russian GRU who were planning a series of terrorist attacks on Kyiv ahead of May 9. According to reports from the SBU, the agents had already planted explosives in construction hypermarkets and cafes. (RBC.ua, 05.13.24)
• Russia's state-owned rail company said May 14 that a freight train derailed overnight near the southern city of Volgograd due to suspected sabotage. (MT/AFP, 05.14.24)
• A regional Russian lawmaker said he was targeted in a car bomb attack in occupied Ukraine over the weekend. Denis Kharitonov, who is a deputy from the ruling United Russia party in the southern Astrakhan region’s legislative assembly, said earlier this year that he had joined the military and was sent for deployment on the front line. (MT/AFP, 05.13.24)
• A Russian court in annexed Crimea has handed down prison sentences to five Ukrainian citizens accused of sharing military intelligence with Kyiv. (MT/AFP, 05.13.24)
• Agents from Russia’s FSB have detained a former employee of the tech company Yandex on suspicion of sending money to the Ukrainian army, state media reported May 13. (MT/AFP, 05.13.24)
• Russia’s FSB said May 16 it arrested a man and his girlfriend on suspicion of planning to blow up a railway track in annexed Crimea on orders from Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 05.16.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• Ukraine’s manpower shortage has reached a critical point, and its position on the battlefield in recent weeks has seriously worsened as Russia has accelerated its advances to take advantage of delays in shipments of American weapons. As a result, Ukrainian officials have asked their American and NATO counterparts to help train 150,000 new recruits closer to the front line for faster deployment. So far the United States has said no, but Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on May 16 that a NATO deployment of trainers appeared inevitable. “We’ll get there eventually, over time,” he said. (NYT, 05.16.24)
  • NATO last month asked Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the supreme allied commander for Europe, to come up with a way for the alliance to do more to help Ukraine that would mitigate risks. A U.S. official said on May 15 that one possibility could be training Ukrainian troops in Lviv, near the country’s western border with Poland. But Russia has already bombed Lviv, including a few weeks ago when Russian cruise missiles struck critical infrastructure there. (NYT, 05.16.24)
• On May 10, the Biden administration announced a $400 million shipment of air defense interceptors, artillery ammunition, Bradley fighting vehicles and other arms to Ukraine. The latest weapons package -- which includes Patriot anti-missile interceptors, 155-millimeter artillery shells, Stinger anti-aircraft and Javelin anti-tank missiles -- comes about two weeks after the administration said it was rushing more than $1 billion in arms and ammunitions to Ukraine. (NYT, 05.12.24)
• On May 14, representatives of Ukraine's military and political leadership held talks with top U.S. officials regarding the needs of the Armed Forces to deter Russian large-scale aggression, including accelerating arms deliveries, and the current situation on the front lines in Ukraine, according to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, and the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak. From the American side, participants included national security advisor Jake Sullivan, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Charles Q. Brown Jr.(RBC.ua, 05.14.24)
• On May 14, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Ukraine. Speaking during a meeting with Zelenskyy, Blinken said more U.S. assistance was on its way and some of it had already arrived. He is the first senior U.S. official to visit Ukraine since Congress approved a $61 billion military aid package last month. “That’s going to make a real difference against the ongoing Russian aggression on the battlefield,” said Blinken. “We’re rushing ammunition, armored vehicles, missiles, air defenses. Rushing them to get to the front lines, to protect soldiers, protect civilians,” he said. "When we hold the Washington summit in July, we'll take tangible steps to increase NATO's role in building a resilient, capable Ukrainian force, supporting its ongoing reforms that are integrating Ukraine into the alliance," he said.Blinken also announced during a joint press conference with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on May 15 that the U.S. will provide a two billion dollar "defense enterprise fund" to Ukraine. The funds are provided to purchase weapons for the Ukrainian army. (RFE/RL, 05.14.24, FT, 05.14.24, Bloomberg, 05.15.24, ISW, 05.15.24, RBC.ua, 05.15.24)
  • Blinken said Biden could meet with Zelenskyy within weeks and voiced strong American support for a peace conference in Switzerland that is expected to be held next month. (RFE/RL, 05.15.24)
  • Zelenskyy told Blinken that Ukraine needs two U.S.-made Patriot missile systems for the northeastern Kharkiv region. “We need, today, two Patriots for Kharkiv,” Zelenskyy said. (FT, 05.14.24, Bloomberg, 05.14.24)
    • The data, from a NYT analysis of daily Ukrainian military reports, shows a major shift: Ukraine is increasingly failing to stop Russian missiles, crippling its ability to protect major infrastructure and plunging cities into darkness. Russian air assaults have struck critical Ukrainian weapons factories and railways used to supply the front. They have also targeted Ukrainian troops on the front line. (NYT, 05.13.24)
    • The Biden administration is working to send an additional Patriot air-defense battery to Ukraine, people familiar with the matter said, as the U.S. and its allies scramble to meet the country’s demand for more weapons to repel an intensified Russian assault. (Bloomberg, 05.14.24)
• Ukrainian officials are making a new push to get the Biden administration to lift its ban on using U.S.-made weapons to strike inside Russia, saying the policy kept them from attacking Russian positions as they prepared for their major march toward Kharkiv. A group of Ukrainian parliamentarians is in Washington this week to enlist congressional help on the issue, which they see as handcuffing the Ukrainian war effort as Kyiv looks to hit Russian military supply depots over the border. (Politico, 05.14.24)
  • On May 15, the U.S. Helsinki Commission stated that the U.S. should allow Ukraine to conduct strikes against military targets in Russia's border areas amid an ongoing Russian offensive operation into Kharkiv Oblast from Russia, although U.S. officials continue to express unwillingness to support such strikes. (ISW, 05.15.24)
  • On May 17,Zelenskyy said he believes that Ukraine cannot be prohibited from using Western weapons to strike Russia, because this is part of defense, not an attack. (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.17.24)
• Germany's Welt am Sonntag reports that the EU is currently discussing with Kyiv possible security assurances with the aim of providing what the outlet says are "extensive security commitments" by the beginning of July. (RFE/RL, 05.11.24)
• Sweden will consider sending troops to Ukraine if such a proposal arises at the NATO member states' level, states Pål Jonson, Sweden’s Defense Minister. (RBC.ua, 05.15.24)
• Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur clarified that Estonia is not currently considering sending its forces to deep rear areas in Ukraine for non-combat roles. Pevkur stated on May 14 that previous discussions about possibly sending troops to deep rear areas of Ukraine have not gained traction in either Estonia or the EU, and noted that Estonia would not take such a measure alone. (ISW, 05.14.24)
• The Swiss government wants to be able to sidestep the country’s rigid neutrality to allow more weapons exports but will maintain a ban on shipments to Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 05.15.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• As much as $300 billion in Russian assets, frozen in the West since the invasion of Ukraine, is piling up profits and interest income by the day. Now, Europe and the United States are considering how to use those gains to aid the Ukrainian military. Both the Europeans and Americans believe that those profits could be used without raising legal challenges or risks to the global financial system. But they have competing ideas on how to use the funds. The Europeans would like to transfer them to Ukraine yearly or biannually. The Americans want to find a way to get more money to Ukraine more quickly. (NYT, 05.14.24)
• Biden on May 13 signed legislation banning the import of Russian enriched uranium, starting a 90-day countdown until limits on shipments of the reactor fuel take effect. Biden’s signature also unlocks some $2.7 billion in spending, previously approved by Congress, to build up domestic uranium supplies for U.S. nuclear plants. Cutting off that supply could raise uranium prices 20%, according to Jonathan Hinze, president of nuclear fuel market research firm UxC. The bipartisan bill will provide waivers until 2028 for utilities that would be forced to shut down nuclear reactors once Russian supplies are cut off. (Bloomberg, 05.13.24, WP, 05.14.24)
  • Russia’s state-owned uranium supplier Tenex has notified U.S. customers they have 60 days to secure a waiver exempting them from the new law. (Bloomberg, 05.16.24)
  • U.S. production of 82,533 pounds U3O8 (32.1 tU) in the first quarter of 2024 was the highest Q1 production since 2018 and almost 80% more than production for the whole of 2023. (WNN, 05.14.24)
• Major Japanese, U.S. and Taiwanese companies rank among the Top 5 manufacturers on a list of more than 2,000 electronic components that Ukraine says Russia has used in five types of warplanes it has deployed in its full-scale invasion, Schemes, the investigative unit of RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service, has found. (RFE/RL, 05.11.24)
• The U.S. has imposed sanctions on three entities and an individual involved in an asset-swap deal Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International has recently aborted. Washington said the targeted parties had been involved in an “attempted sanctions evasion scheme” connected to the Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska. It did not name Raiffeisen. (FT, 05.15.24)
• The United States announced sanctions on May 16 on two Russian individuals and three Russian companies for facilitating arms transfers between Russia and North Korea, including ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 05.16.24)
• The U.K. has announced a package of sanctions against Russian and North Korean individuals and companies to target the two countries’ trade in arms and oil. The Foreign Office said it had imposed asset freezes, travel bans and other sanctions on one North Korean and two Russian shipping companies and one company director for attempts to contravene U.N. sanctions through an “illicit arms-for-oil partnership.” (FT, 05.17.24)
• Commerzbank AG said it’s facing various legal cases in Russia that have created a business risk. The German bank, which operates in Russia via its Commerzbank (Eurasija) AO unit, highlighted a court ruling handed down in March that ordered the bank to pay damages. Commerzbank said it faces more cases in “similar matters.” “The proceedings in Russia are subject to considerable uncertainties, and these could have a significant economic impact on the subsidiary and indirectly on Commerzbank,” the lender said in its quarterly report on May 15. (Bloomberg, 05.15.24)
• Microsoft has started blocking Russian corporate clients from using its cloud services in compliance with Western sanctions, a Russian distributor of the tech company’s products Softline said May 17. (MT/AFP, 05.17.24)
• Unilever Plc will keep making Cornetto and Carte D’Or in Russia even after shedding its global ice cream unit. (Bloomberg, 05.16.24)
• The 50-year-old partner of Russian oligarch and sanctioned former Rosneft CEO Eduard Khudainatov is the mystery buyer of four chalets in the Austrian Alpine resort of Kitzbuehel worth a combined 26 million euros ($28 million), according to a joint investigation by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) and media partners. Khudainatov, who has been sanctioned by the European Union but not the United States, has claimed ownership of two superyachts seized by U.S. and Italian officials, respectively. (RFE/RL, 05.11.24)
• Over two years, about 4,000 Glock pistols and almost 200 Austrian Steyr Mannlicher rifles and pistols were imported into Russia, bypassing sanctions. (Istories, 05.15.24)
• The European Union backed sanctions on four media outlets accused of spreading Russian propaganda, commission vice president Vera Jourova said in a post on X. Once adopted by all member states, the restrictive measures would apply to Voice of Europe, the RIA Novosti news agency, Izvestija and Rossiiskaja Gazeta, banning the outlets from broadcasting in the bloc. The sanctions also include a ban on Russian funding of EU media, NGOs and political parties. (Bloomberg, 05.15.24)
• The Russian government on May 13 approved a bill allowing it to label any foreign organization, including those established by a government, as an "undesirable organization." (RFE/RL, 05.13.24)
• Russia ordered the expulsion of the United Kingdom's defense attache in Moscow on May 16, a move it said was direct retaliation for London expelling Russia's defense attache last week. (MT/AFP, 05.16.24)
• Russian authorities have moved to seize the Russia-based assets of a major vodka producer whose Ukrainian founder was previously accused of funding Kyiv's armed forces. Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office filed a legal suit with a Kursk region court on May 14 seeking to suspend the work of four distillers belonging to Global Spirits Holding, a multinational company founded by Ukrainian businessman Yevhen Cherniak, over alleged engagement in “extremist activities.” (MT/AFP, 05.15.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• Diplomats are focusing on a narrow set of goals in preparation for a summit on Ukraine’s peace plan in Switzerland next month to ensure China and other nations of the so-called Global South attend the meeting. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz set the scene for the gathering on May 14, when he told Stern magazine that the talks are going to touch on the safety of nuclear power plants, grain exports, prisoner exchanges and what he described as the “necessary taboo on the use of nuclear weapons.” “Nobody should have exaggerated expectations,” Scholz said in an interview published on May 14. “We are not negotiating the end of the war there.” (Bloomberg, 05.15.24)
  • French President Emmanuel Macron will attend the peace conference on Ukraine at the Swiss Bürgenstock resort on June 15-16. (Swiss.info, 05.14.24)
• Zelenskyy during a meeting with journalists assures that Western partners are not pushing Ukraine toward negotiations with Russia. Ukraine has chosen a platform for diplomacy - the Peace Summit. The president noted that as a result of the Peace Summit, Ukraine wants to achieve a joint communiqué. It should address several areas - energy, including nuclear, humanitarian issues, shipping.(RBC.ua, 05.17.24)
  • Zelenskyy said he doesn’t understand the idea of a “truce” during the Olympics in Paris, because nothing will prevent Russia, for example, from moving its equipment closer and then “starting the offensive.” (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.17.24)
• Accusations against Ukraine that it allegedly did not want to sign a peace deal with Russia in 2022 in Istanbul are absurd, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. "Absurd. If Russia wanted peace, it should never have attacked Ukraine in the first place," the minister added. (RBC.ua, 05.14.24)
• Any potential peace deal must involve the withdrawal of Russian troops from currently occupied territories. Ukraine could become strong enough to force Putin to the negotiating table, according to former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland. (RBC.ua, 05.13.24)
• In the Levada Center’s April 2024 survey, 44% of respondents would “definitely support” Putin if he this week decided to end the war in Ukraine, up from 37% the last time the question was asked in October 2023. In total, 71% would definitely or likely support an end to the war this week, up slightly from 70% in October. However, when asked if they would support Putin ending the war this week and giving up the annexed territories, 30% would definitely or likely support and 60% would definitely or likely not support (34% and 57%, respectively, in October). Support for peace negotiations grew slightly from March to April, with just over half, 51%, of respondents saying they definitely or likely support beginning negotiations (48% in March). (Levada, 05.16.24)
• For China-related developments related to potential negotiations, see the section on Chinese-Russian relations.

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• The Russian Federation is preparing a physical attack on Western countries whose intelligence agencies are concerned about Moscow's intelligence services' links to cyberattacks and sabotage, according to the U.K. Government Communications Headquarters Director, Anna Keast-Butler. (RBC.ua, 05.15.24)
• Polish President Andrzej Duda said Russia would invade other countries if its forces are victorious in its war on Ukraine, as he predicted a fresh military push by the Kremlin in the coming weeks. (Bloomberg, 05.14.24)
  • Poland plans to bolster security along its eastern borders amid threats from Belarus and Russia, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said May 11. (Bloomberg, 05.11.24)
• “Seeking to retain their global dominance, they have usurped the right to tell other nations whom they may, or must not, make friends and cooperate with, and to deny them the right to choose their own development models,” Putin said in an interview. “We also reject Western attempts to impose an order based on lies and hypocrisy, on some mythical rules of no one knows whose making,” he said. (Xinhua, 05.15.24) 

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Putin told Xinhua ahead of this week’s trip to China:  
  • “Today, Russia-China relations have reached the highest level ever, and despite the difficult global situation continue to get stronger,” Putin said ahead of the trip, which is the first foreign trip that Putin has made since his inauguration and which is the 43rd time he and Xi meet.¹ “It is important that Russia-China ties as they are today, are free from the influence of either ideology or political trends. Their multidimensional development is an informed strategic choice based on the wide convergence of core national interests, profound mutual trust, strong public support and sincere friendship between the peoples of the two countries,” he said. (Xinhua, 05.15.24)
  • “We commend China's approaches to resolving the crisis in Ukraine. Beijing is well aware of its root causes and global geopolitical significance, which is reflected in its 12-point plan entitled "China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis" published in February 2023. The ideas and proposals contained in the document show the genuine desire of our Chinese friends to help stabilize the situation. ... As for the additional four principles of conflict resolution recently voiced by President Xi Jinping, they seamlessly fit in the above-mentioned plan. Beijing proposes practicable and constructive steps to achieve peace by refraining from pursuing vested interests and constant escalation of tensions, minimizing the negative impact of the conflict on the global economy and the stability of global value chains,” Putin said. He said “Russia stands ready for negotiations.” (Xinhua, 05.15.24, FT, 05.15.24)
    • “We are seeking a comprehensive, sustainable and just settlement of this conflict through peaceful means. We are open to a dialogue on Ukraine, but such negotiations must take into account the interests of all countries involved in the conflict, including ours. They must also involve a substantive discussion on global stability and security guarantees for Russia's opponents and, naturally, for Russia itself. Needless to say, these must be reliable guarantees,” Putin said. (Xinhua, 05.15.24)
  • “Trade and economic relations between our countries [Russia and China] are developing at a fast pace, showing strong immunity to external challenges and crises. Over the past five years, we have doubled the Russia-China turnover: it reached $227.8 billion last year, against $111 billion in 2019. More than 90% of settlements between our companies are made in national currencies,” Putin said in an interview ahead of his visit to China.. (Xinhua, 05.15.24)
  • The Kremlin said ahead of the trip that Putin and Xi would “discuss the whole range of issues in detail in their all-encompassing partnership and strategic relationship, define the key directions of the further development of Russia-China practical partnership, and hold a thorough exchange of views on the most pressing international and regional problems.” (FT, 05.14.24)
• On the first full day of Putin’s visit on May 16, Xi said: “China and Russia, which are permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and leading economies with growing markets, are strengthening their strategic interaction and expanding the scope of their mutually beneficial cooperation.” “We have made a common strategic choice for a historical trend towards the development of a multipolar world and economic globalization,” Xi said at the beginning of the Russia-China talks in the expanded format on May 16. (Kremlin.ru, 05.16.24)
• On May 16, Putin said at the beginning of one of his conversations with Xi: “It is of fundamental significance that relations between Russia and China do not depend on short-term considerations and are not directed against anyone. Today, our cooperation in global affairs is one of the main stabilizing factors on the international stage.” "Together we uphold the principles of justice and a democratic world order reflecting the multipolar realities founded in international law." (WSJ, 05.16.24, Kremlin.ru, 05.16.24)
• During their talks on May 16 in Beijing Putin and Xi signed a “joint statement on deepening comprehensive partnerships and strategic engagement as we enter a new era, in the context of the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. ” The statement said:²
  • “The Parties note that modern Russian-Chinese relations represent a more advanced form of interstate interaction compared to the military-political alliances of the Cold War, are not bloc or confrontational in nature, and are not directed against third countries. ... The Parties express their readiness to continue to deepen their  comprehensive strategic cooperation.”
  •  “Moscow and Beijing will further deepen trust and cooperation in the military field, expand the scope of joint exercises and combat training, regularly conduct joint sea and air patrols, increase coordination and cooperation on a bilateral basis and within multilateral formats, constantly improve the capabilities and level of joint response to challenges and threats.”
  • “The Parties note with concern that the current state of affairs in the field of international security is characterized by increasing conflict at the regional and global levels, general instability, as well as increased strategic risks as a result of the aggravation of interstate contradictions, including between nuclear powers.”
    • “Reaffirming commitment to the Joint Statement of the Leaders of the Five Nuclear-Weapon States on Preventing Nuclear War and Arms Race dated Jan. 3, 2022, and, first and foremost, that there can be no winners in a nuclear war and it should never be fought. The Parties once again call on all countries participating in this document to follow its provisions in practice.”
    • “The Parties advocate that nuclear powers stand guard over global strategic stability, observe the principle of equal and indivisible security, and do not encroach on each other’s vital interests - in particular, through the expansion of military alliances and coalitions and the creation of military bridgeheads close to the borders of other nuclear powers, especially with the advanced deployment of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems, as well as other military-strategic infrastructure.”
    • “The priority task of preventing direct military confrontation between nuclear powers must be solved comprehensively with an emphasis on eliminating the root causes of the fundamental contradictions between them in the field of security.”
    • “The Parties reaffirm their serious concern about the U.S. attempts to upset the strategic balance to secure a decisive military advantage for itself. This is primarily due to the U.S. activities in creating a global missile defense system and deploying its elements in various regions of the world and in space.”
  • “The Parties ... intend to increase interaction and tighten coordination in order to counter Washington’s destructive and hostile course towards the so-called ‘dual containment’ of our countries.”
  • “The Parties oppose attempts by individual countries to use outer space for the purposes of armed confrontation.”
  •  “The Parties are committed to the goal of building a world free of chemical weapons and are deeply concerned about the politicization of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.”
  • “The Parties intend to deepen cooperation in the fight against international terrorism and extremism, showing ‘zero tolerance’ to the ‘three forces of evil,’ including the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan.”
  •  “The Parties attach great importance to the issues of artificial intelligence (AI) and intend to strengthen dialogue and cooperation in the field of development, security and regulation of artificial intelligence.”
  • “The Parties are taking measures to combat climate change.”
  • “The Russian Side welcomes the readiness of the Chinese Side to play a constructive role in the issue of political and diplomatic settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. The Parties note the need to stop any steps that contribute to prolongation of hostilities and further escalation of the conflict, call for preventing its transition into an uncontrollable phase, and emphasize the importance of dialogue as the optimal form of resolving the Ukrainian crisis. The Parties proceed from the fact that for a sustainable settlement of the Ukrainian crisis it is necessary to eliminate its primary cause.”
    • White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a press briefing May 16 that Biden administration officials "don't see anything new here" in reference to the joint statement. "We find it unacceptable Chinese companies are helping Putin wage this war against Ukraine," Jean-Pierre said. "If China purports to support peace in Europe, it cannot continue to fuel the biggest threat to European security," she added, noting that NATO, the European Union and Group of Seven nations share that sentiment. (Axios, 05.16.24)         
• Xi said in a statement to media following Russia-China talks on May 16: “China and Russia have served as a role model by showing others ways of building state-to-state ties of a new kind and working together as two major neighboring powers. Our commitment to the following five principles has made all of this possible.”
  • “The first principle involves demonstrating mutual respect and firm commitment to supporting each other on matters dealing with the core interests of both sides.”
  • “The second principle consists of promoting a win-win approach to shaping a new architecture of mutually beneficial cooperation.”
  • “The third principle deals with maintaining our centuries-old friendly ties and passing on this friendship from one generation to another.”
  • “The fourth point is that we must act in the spirit of strategic cooperation to set various visions of global governance on the right track.”
  • “The fifth principle deals with promoting a political settlement for hotspots in the interest of truth and justice.” (Kremlin.ru, 05.16.24)
• Xi said in the statement to media following Russia-China talks on May 16: “China and Russia believe that the Ukraine crisis must be resolved by political means. China has been consistent and clear on this matter by advocating for compliance with the norms and principles set forth in the U.N. Charter, respecting state sovereignty and territorial integrity for all countries, while taking into consideration their reasonable security concerns. This approach aims to shape a new balanced, effective and sustainable security architecture. China hopes that peace and stability will return to the European continent soon and is ready to constructively contribute to making this happen.” (Kremlin.ru, 05.16.24)
  • The Chinese president said Beijing and Moscow agreed there should be a "political solution" to the Russia-Ukraine war, without giving any details. China's peace proposals unveiled last year have been criticized by both Kyiv and its Western allies. (BBC, 05.16.24)
  • Ukraine played a major role in the discussions where the two leaders walked in a park drinking tea. Xi referred to conflict in Ukraine as a "crisis" during a joint press conference by the two premiers. "China and Russia are insisting on a political solution to the war in Ukraine," Xi said, without detailing any specific next steps. Putin expressed gratitude for "China's efforts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis." (BBC, 05.16.24)
  • In May 16 remarks, Putin thanked Xi for his efforts to resolve the war in Ukraine. “We are grateful to our Chinese friends and colleagues for their initiatives on the settlement of that problem,” he said of the Ukraine war, which Xi kept calling a crisis. (WP, 05.16.24, RM, 05.16.24, Kremlin.ru, 05.16.24)
• In May 16 remarks after his meetings with Xi, Putin vowed to deepen economic ties with China in ways that are "reliably protected from the influence of third parties," referring to the impacts of U.S.-led sanctions following his invasion of Ukraine. "We have always firmly supported each other on issues involving each other's core interests and major concerns," Xi said, calling Putin an "old friend" and congratulating him on securing a new term as president. (WP, 05.16.24)
• Putin said in a statement to media following Russia-China talks on May 16: “We believe that it is necessary to create a reliable and appropriate security architecture in the Asia-Pacific Region, which has no place for closed military-political alliances. We believe that the creation of such alliances is extremely harmful and counterproductive.” (Kremlin.ru, 05.16.24)
• During their interaction on May 16 in Beijing, Putin and Xi also attended a dinner in 1+4 format with Putin accompanied by new defense minister Andrey Belousov, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Secretary of the Security Council Sergei Shoigu (the former defense minister) and Yuri Ushakov, a top foreign policy adviser, to discuss the war in Ukraine over dinner among other issues. (WP, 05.16.24)
• After meetings with Xi on May 16, Putin, later the same day also met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who is theoretically responsible for the country's economy. The two leaders discussed how to more closely coordinate their economic interests, according to the Chinese readout of the meeting. (WP, 05.16.24.)
• On May 17 Putin traveled to the city of Harbin. Putin visited one of the Orthodox churches there. He also visited one of China's most prestigious universities, the Harbin Institute of Technology, which is closely linked to China's military and several Russian institutions. Putin also attended the opening of the China-Russia trade fair there together with Vice President of China Han Zheng.(WP, 05.16.24, NYT, 05.17.24, WSJ, 05.17.24, Kremlin.ru, 05.17.24) Two observations with regard to Xi hosting Putin in Beijing: 1) Xi has not reaffirmed his commitment to the "no limits" partnership between China and Russia that he had subscribed to shortly before Putin's invasion into Ukraine, but then did not mention again after that invasion commenced. 2) You can guestimate Putin’s priorities by looking at who accompanies him to China: his delegation includes Sechin, but excludes Miller, so no progress on Power of Siberia-2. 
• Putin told media in Harbin on May 17 when wrapping up the second and final day of his visit to China:
  • “The topic of resolving the Ukrainian crisis was touched upon. The President of the People's Republic of China outlined to me the main points of what was discussed during his recent trip to Europe, and outlined his position related to Chinese peace initiatives. We have already said many times that we believe that China sincerely strives to resolve this problem, offers various options, behaves very flexibly and, in my opinion, sincerely strives to resolve this problem.”
  • “We, of course, are now analyzing everything that is happening in this regard in this direction, looking, of course, at what is happening around the meeting announced by everyone in Switzerland, in Geneva - in my opinion, they are gathering there. Of course, we are not going to discuss any formulas that we don’t know. But we have never refused to negotiate.”
  • “We have a basis for the negotiation process, what we agreed on in Istanbul, and what was actually signed by the head of the Ukrainian delegation, under an excerpt from this voluminous document. He initialed it. We have the document, it has a signature. What other additional conditions are there that we have never heard of or know anything about?”
  • [On Russia’s offensive in Kharkiv:] “This is also their [Ukraine’s] fault, because they fired and, unfortunately, continue to shell residential areas of the border territories, including Belgorod. … As for Kharkiv, there are no such plans today.”
  • [When asked if an “Olympic truce” was possible now:] “Yes, Chairman Xi Jinping told me about this, we discussed this topic with him, as if we simply touched upon it.”
  • [On Russia’s conditions for peace talks:] “Of course, we will proceed from the realities that are developing on the ground. This goes without saying.”
  • [On Andrei Belousov's priorities as Russia's new defense minister:] “He must open the Ministry of Defense for constructive work with research centers, with participants in economic activity in the broad sense of the word, with manufacturers of those military-technical products and those components that are needed for the production of military technology. He must open up the Department of Defense to innovation.”
• China's trade with Russia hit a record $240 billion in 2023 — up 63 % from 2021, before the invasion, and reaching a goal they planned to meet by 2024. But having surged by 47% last year to $111 billion, China’s exports to Russia have fallen in the past two months, by 16% in March and by 14% in April, year on year. Banking woes are likely to be a factor. (The Economist, 05.14.24, WP, 05.14.24)
• In 2023, 60% of Russia’s imports of dual-use high technology goods, as defined by the EU’s trade regulations, came from China, according to FT analysis of Russian trade data.  Telecoms equipment, including smartphones, form the largest share of this $26 billion flow at $3.9 billion, with computers in second place at $2.3 billion. Russia also bought $2 billion of microprocessors and $1.7 billion of laboratory equipment. Almost all the imported technology used in Russian weaponry is of Western origin, with just 4% produced by Chinese companies. (FT, 05.15.24)
• Data compiled by The Economist show that China’s exports of semiconductors to Russia were worth nearly $230m in 2023, up from $157m in 2021. Its sales to Russia of machinery for making computer chips grew spectacularly in the same period, from a mere $3.5m to nearly $180m.The high-priority list includes ball bearings, which are used in the manufacture of tanks. China’s exports of these surged nearly 170% last year compared with the same period of 2021, the year before Russia’s all-out invasion. China’s sales of them to Kyrgyzstan, meanwhile, rocketed by more than 1,800%. (The Economist, 05.14.24)
• The export of Chinese cars and relevant components to Russia surged to $23 billion (£18 billion) in 2023, according to China’s Customs statistics."We welcome Chinese carmakers in our market," Putin told a news conference (BBC, 05.16.24)
• 734,000 Russians visited China and 477,000 Chinese tourists visited Russia in 2023, Putin said May 16. (Kremlin.ru, 05.16.24)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms

• Russia launched a satellite into space in February 2022 that is designed to test components for a potential antisatellite weapon that would carry a nuclear device, U.S. officials said. The satellite that was launched doesn't carry a nuclear weapon. But U.S. officials say it is linked to a continuing Russian nuclear antisatellite program that has been a growing worry for the Biden administration, Congress and experts outside government in recent months. The weapon, if deployed, would give Moscow the ability to destroy hundreds of satellites in low-Earth orbit with a nuclear blast. (WSJ, 05.16.24)
• A NYT analysis shows security upgrades unique to Russian nuclear storage facilities at a Cold War-era munitions depot in Belarus. The site is 120 miles north of the Ukrainian border at a military depot next to the town of Asipovichy. (NYT, 05.10.24)
• In June, Sweden’s Riksdag will vote on the government's bill on a military cooperation agreement with the United States, a so-called DCA agreement, which gives the American military the right to use 17 Swedish military bases across the country. The agreement has been criticized because, unlike in Denmark and Norway, it lacks text about a ban on nuclear weapons in Sweden. (Expressen.se, 05.13.24)
• Also see the section on Russian-Chinese relations above.

Counterterrorism:

• A Moscow court ruled May 16 to extend the pre-trial detention of eight men accused of organizing and carrying out the deadly Crocus City Hall concert attack in March. Law enforcement agents arrested four gunmen the day after the March 22 attack, which left 145 people dead and hundreds more wounded. A total of 11 people were eventually arrested in connection with the deadly shooting,. (MT/AFP, 05.16.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Artificial intelligence raises the risk of foreign governments spreading disinformation among voters ahead of the next U.S. election, with Russia posing the biggest threat, senior Biden administration officials warned. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said May 15 that Russia and other adversaries, including China and Iran, have been seeking crucial data like polling information to shape their efforts to sow chaos in U.S. democratic processes. “Moscow most likely views such operations as a means to tear down the United States as its perceived primary adversary enabling Russia to promote itself as a great power,” Haines said. (Bloomberg, 05.15.24)
• In early March a network of websites, dubbed CopyCop, began publishing stories in English and French on a range of contentious issues. They spread nonsensical stories about Polish mercenaries in Ukraine. That is not unusual for Russian propaganda. What was new was that the stories had been taken from legitimate news outlets and modified using large language models. An investigation published on May 9 by Recorded Future, a threat-intelligence company, found that the articles had been translated and edited to add a partisan bias. CopyCop had published more than 19,000 articles across 11 websites by the end of March 2024, many of them probably produced and posted automatically. (The Economist, 05.10.24)
• Head of Britain’s signals intelligence agency Anne Keast-Butler told a security conference on May 14 that while the cyber threats from Russia and Iran were “globally pervasive” and “aggressive” respectively, China was her agency’s top priority. (FT, 05.14.24)
• Russian national Aleksei Pertsev, a co-developer of the Tornado Cash cryptocurrency tumbler, has received a sentence of five years and four months in prison in the Netherlands for laundering $1.2 billion in cryptocurrency from 2019 to 2022. (RFE/RL, 05.15.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Ukraine has increasingly been striking Russian oil facilities in what military analysts say is an attempt to complicate the Russian military’s logistics by hitting facilities that supply fuel for its tanks, ships and planes.Ukrainian officials hope the strikes can undermine the Russian energy complex, which is at the core of the country’s economy and war effort — accounting for about a third of Russia’s federal budget revenue — although they do not appear to have had any serious effect yet. (NYT, 05.17.24)
• Russia exported roughly 520,000 barrels a day of diesel in most of April, about a third less than a year earlier, according to Bloomberg calculations based on industry data. However, its refineries’ production of the fuel dropped by only 8% to about 1.7 million barrels a day amid lower crude-processing, the figures show. The divergence comes as the Russian producers have increased their supplies to customers at home. (Bloomberg, 05.16.24)
• EIA predicts that Russia’s share of global gas exports will fall to 15% by 2030—down from 30% before Moscow’s full-blown invasion of Ukraine. (FP, 05.15.24)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• No significant developments.

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• On May 12, Putin signed a decree appointing a new government, including the replacement of the defense minister Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov, a former deputy prime minister who is an economics expert with no military background. Putin also fired his long-time confidant Nikolai Patrushev from the post of Security Council secretary, making him his aide in charge of shipbuilding. Putin – who appointed Mikhail Mishustin as prime minister three days later – had Shoigu appointed as the new secretary of the Security Council. (AP, 05.12.24, RM, 05.12.24) For a detailed description of the new cabinet, please see this MT piece.
  • Russian opposition outlet Meduza, citing sources close to the Kremlin, stated that its sources were "stunned" when they saw that Putin had removed Patrushev from the Security Council, and even more "shocked" that his new position is to be Putin's assistant on shipbuilding. (ISW, 05.14.24)
  • Putin reiterated Belousov’s main task is to make sure higher defense spending is used “wisely and efficiently.” Russia’s spending on defense and national security is projected to reach 8.7% of gross domestic product this year, compared with 13% in the mid-1980s during Soviet times, Putin said. (Bloomberg, 05.15.24)
    • Belousov said he plans to improve military efficiency and reduce battlefield casualties to win the war in Ukraine that’s now in its third year with no end in sight. “Every ruble in the state budget that, in the end, our citizens pay should have the greatest impact,” Belousov told lawmakers in Russia’s upper house of parliament on May 14 as they confirmed his appointment. Belousov, an economist with no military background, said Putin appointed him to the post “to ensure the full integration of the economy of the armed forces into the general economy of the country.” (Bloomberg, 05.14.24)
    • The choice of Belusov signaled Putin's desire for a defense chief who would assert tight control over giant increases in military spending to finance Russia's brutal war against Ukraine, and to curb endemic corruption in the agency, which appeared to hobble Russian forces early in the invasion when new conscripts often seemed ill-equipped. (WP, 05.12.24)
  • This week Putin thanked Shoigu for reshaping the Russian military in recent years and claimed that no one, including Russia, understood the "modern methods of conducting armed struggle" before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine — a likely attempt to soften the blow of Shoigu's de facto demotion. Putin stated that Shoigu will work with the Military-Industrial Complex Commission under the Presidential Administration as well as the Federal Service for Cooperation with Foreign Countries. (ISW, 05.15.24)
    • Shoigu, who has served as defense minister since 2012, has faced increasing scrutiny since Moscow launched its war on Ukraine, most recently last month when one of his stalwart allies Timur Ivanov, a deputy defense minister responsible for construction projects, was arrested on bribery charges for allegedly receiving payoffs in the course of processing defense contracts. (WSJ, 05.12.24)
  • Putin said that he does not plan to make any personnel changes to Russia’s General Staff following the ouster of Shoigu earlier this week. Gen. Valery Gerasimov will appear to maintain his position as chief of Russia’s General Staff, the central organ of command of the country’s armed forces, despite the ongoing government shakeup as Putin assumes his fifth presidential term. (MT/AFP, 05.15.24)
  • Putin made newly-appointed Presidential Aide Alexei Dyumin (ex-governor of the Tula region) and Minister of Industry and Trade Anton Alikhanov (ex-governor of the Kaliningrad region) members of the supervisory board of state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec and specifically tasked Dyumin with assisting Russian efforts to provide the Russian military with the necessary weapons and equipment. Putin met with the commanders of the Russian military districts and with officials involved in the Russian DIB on May 15 and focused both meetings on the need to develop the Russian DIB and economy. (ISW, 05.15.24)
  • On May 15, Putin named five successors to regional governors who were promoted to federal office earlier this week as part of a wider government reshuffle. In the central Tula region, former governor Alexei Dyumin’s deputy Dmitry Milyayev was appointed as the new acting regional head. Milyayev has held public office in the Tula region since 2014, including serving as Tula mayor between 2019 and 2022. Putin on May 14 appointed Dyumin as an aide who will advise the Kremlin chief on issues related to the defense industry and sports. In the coal-mining Kemerovo region, former governor Sergei Tsivilyov’s deputy Ilya Seredyuk was appointed as the new acting regional head. Seredyuk served as the mayor of Kemerovo between 2016 and 2022. Tsivilyov was appointed as Russia’s new energy minister. (MT/AFP, 05.15.24)
• The domestic partner of Putin's elder daughter was named head of a pipeline company set to service a Kremlin-connected tycoon's ambitious LNG project just months after Putin himself publicly backed the initiative, RFE/RL's Russian investigative unit has found. The investigative unit, Systema, found that Yevgeny Nagorny, who has a child with Putin's daughter Maria Vorontsova, in December 2023 became general director of a subsidiary of the private energy company Novatek. (RFE/RL, 05.16.24)
• Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s close ally Magomed Daudov announced May 14 that he is stepping down as speaker of the North Caucasus republic’s legislative assembly, a post he held for nearly nine years. (MT/AFP, 05.15.24)
• According to a new survey released May 15 by the Levada Center, the indicators of social distance toward people of different nationalities change under the influence of current events in Russia and the world. The highest level of hostility is recorded toward Roma, immigrants from the Central Asian republics of the former USSR and, in the last two years, toward Ukrainians. Over 22 years of monitoring in Russia, the number of people who do not support restrictions on the residence of representatives of any nation has gradually increased. However, the prevailing opinion is that the influx of newcomers should be "restricted" and illegal migrants "deported from the country." Most respondents do not feel interethnic tension and believe that mass clashes on ethnic grounds are unlikely today. (Levada Center, 05.14.24)
• Russia's Supreme Court has rejected an appeal by jailed dissident and journalist Vladimir Kara-Murza against his conviction and 25-year sentence, the longest prison term handed to a Kremlin opponent in post-Soviet Russia. (RFE/RL, 05.14.24)
• Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny was posthumously awarded the 224 Dresden Peace Prize in the German city on May 12. (RFE/RL, 05.12.24)
• Lilia Chanysheva, a former leader of Navalny's team in Ufa who is serving 9 1/2 years in prison on extremism charges, has asked Putin to pardon her. (RFE/RL, 05.13.24)
• Russia’s state financial watchdog Rosfinmonitoring has added journalist Nadezhda Kevorkova to its list of “terrorists and extremists,” the state-run news agency TASS reported May 13. (MT/AFP, 05.13.24)
• The Memorial human rights center on May 15 recognized four Russian journalists arrested in recent months on charges of taking part in an extremist group's activities as political prisoners: Olga Komleva, Antonina Favorskaya, Konstantin Gabov and Sergei Karelin. (RFE/RL, 05.15.24)
• Russian authorities on May 16 labeled the independent news outlet SOTA as “undesirable,” effectively banning anyone from working with or having links to the organization. (MT/AFP, 05.16.24)
• Russian prosecutors have filed an unspecified lawsuit against the exiled former tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky and his one-time business partner Platon Lebedev, the Vedomosti business newspaper reported May 16. (MT/AFP, 05.16.24)
• The European Commission in its annual spring economic forecast estimated the possible growth of Russia's GDP at the end of 2024 at 2.9%. This is almost double the organization's previous estimate of 1.6%. The World Bank, in its latest report in April, also increased its forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2024 - to 2.2% from the previously expected 1.3%. (Meduza, 05.15.24)
• Russia’s budget revenues from the oil and gas sector increased 82.2 % year on year to 4.16 trillion rubles ($45.5 billion) in the first four months of 2024, according to data released by the finance ministry on May 13. This result was primarily due to the rise in Russian oil prices as well as a one-off payment in February related to tax changes, the ministry said. Revenue from the non-oil and gas sector also increased 36.8 % to 7.53 trillion rubles. (FT, 05.13.24)
• The Kremlin opened up the fiscal taps after Putin’s reelection in March, putting the budget back into deep deficit despite a surge in oil revenues. The shortfall was 1.5 trillion rubles ($16 billion) in the year to date through April, more than doubling from the previous month, the Finance Ministry said May 13. While it didn’t break out the monthly totals, Bloomberg calculations show the budget swung into a deficit of 877 billion rubles in April after a surplus in March. (Bloomberg, 05.13.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• Col. Gen. Alexander Lapin took over the post of commander of the Leningrad Military District, which was created in February 2024. Lapin’s position is indicated in the list of participants in the meeting of the President of the Russian Federation with the commanders of military districts, published on the Kremlin website. (Meduza, 05.15.24) For a full list of Putin’s personnel decisions on heads of Russia’s military districts see ISW’s 05.15.24 report.
• See the domestic politics section above for more news on military-related reshuffles.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Lt. Gen. Yuri Kuznetsov, the head of the Russian Defense Ministry’s Main Personnel Directorate since May 2023, has been arrested on suspicion of taking “especially large bribes,” the Russian Investigative Committee reported on May 14. The charges pertain to a period in 2021–2023 when the general led the 8th Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, which encompasses the Defense Ministry’s State Secrets Protection Service. (Meduza, 05.14.24)
• The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs lacks 152,000 employees, said the head of the department, Vladimir Kolokoltsev, in the Federation Council. “We cannot print money and increase salaries, which is the main motive for attracting people to serve in the internal affairs bodies. The situation has not only changed, it has worsened,” he said. (Istories, 05.14.24)
• A court in Siberia sentenced a resident of Novosibirsk on May 14 to 12 years in prison on charges of attempted sabotage in 2022 and having links with the Freedom of Russia legion, a group fighting alongside Ukrainian forces against occupying Russian troops. (RFE/RL, 05.14.24)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• France’s decision to invite Russia to attend the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings has stoked tensions with allied nations as leaders prepare to gather on the Normandy beaches on June 6. (Politico, 05.17.24)
• Putin on May 15 described the shooting of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico as a "heinous crime" and said he hoped Fico would recover quickly. "I know Robert Fico to be a courageous and strong-spirited man. I very much hope that these qualities will help him to withstand this difficult situation," Putin said in a statement released by the Kremlin. (AFP, 05.15.24)
  • 71-year-old Juraj Cintula, detained on suspicion of attacking Fico, was associated with the pro-Russian group Slovenskí Branci (“Slovak Conscripts”), Hungarian investigative journalist Szabolcs Panyi found out. According to VSquare, the organization collaborated with the pro-Kremlin biker movement Night Wolves, and their leader was trained by former Russian special forces. In 2022, the group announced the cessation of activities. (Istories, 05.16.24)
• German prosecutors and police have launched a corruption investigation into Petr Bystron, an MP for the far-right Alternative for Germany, for links to a covert Kremlin campaign to spread pro-Russian disinformation across Europe. (FT, 05.16.24)
• Russian military intelligence has worked to exploit fringe peace demonstrations in Germany as part of a broader operation aiming to influence public opinion in the country and undermine support for Ukraine, according to European government officials familiar with the matter and documents seen by Bloomberg News. One organization targeted by the Russian GRU’s psychological operations unit 54777 is Alternative Kinder Zukunft (AKiZ) and its “Children of War” photo project, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential issues. The photo exhibition launched in Cologne in June 2022, a few months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, and declares on its website that it aims to draw attention to the suffering of children in war zones. The organizers said it has toured cities including Hamburg, Berlin and Frankfurt, and has also been shown in France, Spain, Italy and Belgium. (Bloomberg, 05.15.24)
• An Afghan-born man who held British security clearance and worked with the Foreign Office lost a bid to restore his U.K. citizenship after a London court ruled he was an agent of Russia’s GRU military intelligence service. (Bloomberg, 05.17.24)

Ukraine:

• Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko will be part of the talks among Group of Seven finance chiefs and central bankers congregating in Stresa next week, according to host-nation Italy. (Bloomberg, 05.13.24)
• Zelenskyy’s presidential term expires on May 20. Russian propagandists will crow that Zelenskyy is “illegitimate” after May 20, tactfully ignoring the pantomime of Putin’s re-election earlier this year. (The Economist, 05.16.24)
• In the past six months, Ukraine has exported 27.6 million metric tons of grain and oilseed through the Black Sea, the country’s main export route, according to figures from the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority. That is just 0.2 million metric tons short of the average export volume in the same period from 2018 to 2021, before Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022. (NYT, 05.12.24)
• “We have clear agreements with European institutions. We have created a clear calendar of events. Therefore, we are guided by June that the negotiation framework will be approved,” said Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine Olga Stefanishyna. (Korrespondent.net, 05.13.24)
• Former Deputy Minister of Defense for Finance and Internal Audit Rostislav Zamlinsky was appointed Ambassador-at-Large of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Earlier, while being in the position of Alexey Reznikov’s deputy, Zamlinsky agreed on contracts for the purchase of products for the Defense Forces at inflated prices, according to Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Center. (Ukrainska Pravda, 05.14.24)
• In Ukraine, a criminal group is being investigated for activities which evading taxes in what caused UAH 2 billion in damages to the state. (Korrespondent.net, 05.17.24)
• An Ukrainian border guard shot and killed a man who wanted to escape to Romania. (RBC.ua, 05.17.24)
• In a recent interview, British political strategist Dominic Cummings said the West had failed to send Putin a worthwhile signal which would deter him from invading another country. He also was scathing of Zelenskyy and comparisons with World War II, stating, “This is not a replay of 1940 with Zelenskyy as the Churchillian underdog.” (Politico, 05.09.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Georgian lawmakers approved a controversial bill on regulating “foreign influence” in its third and final reading on May 14, defying the country’s largest protests in years. The legislation has plunged the South Caucasus country into a political crisis, with tens of thousands rallying against what they say mirrors Russia’s repressive “foreign agent” law and risks jeopardizing Georgia’s ambitions to join the European Union. “We protest so that this law is not adopted in Georgia, the law which could destroy the entire democracy of our country,” one of the thousands of protesters who have taken to the streets every day in recent weeks told MT after overnight mass protests in Tbilisi on May 12. (MT/AFP, 05.14.24)
  • The EU will freeze Georgia’s membership bid if Tbilisi enacts a controversial “foreign agents” law critics say is inspired by Putin’s Russia. A decision by the bloc to start accession talks was likely to be indefinitely postponed if the law came into force, three EU officials told FT. A final vote by the ruling majority is expected in the coming weeks once the country’s president, Salome Zourabichvili, refuses to sign off on it as promised and sends it back to parliament. (FT, 05.15.24)
  • Georgia’s president warned the country may lose its chance to join the EU if the government pushes ahead with a controversial “foreign agent” law in the face of huge protests. “We are at a very concerning point,” Zourabichvili said in an interview May 17. (Bloomberg, 05.17.24)
• FSB director Alexander Bortnikov said that Russian border guards will remain in Armenia.  According to him, Yerevan turned to Moscow with a request to withdraw temporary operational groups of border guards from the demarcation line, such a decision has been made. (Meduza, 05.14.24)
• Moldova and the EU are set to deepen their defense cooperation to unprecedented levels, as Chișinău defies warnings from Moscow that closer Western integration could see it face Ukraine’s fate. Under an EU proposal, set to be agreed next week and seen by FT, Moldova would increase its intelligence sharing, carry out joint military exercises and be included in the bloc’s joint weapons procurement — measures that would constitute the deepest formal step to link its national defense to Western partners. The country’s constitution proclaims “permanent neutrality” and rules out membership in NATO. (FT, 05.14.24)
• Fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor has obtained Russian citizenship and identity documents, Moldovan authorities confirmed on May 16, a move that runs counter to current legislation in the tiny country wedged between Ukraine and Romania. (RFE/RL, 05.16.24)
• Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda won the first round of an election on May 11, putting the outspoken critic of Putin closer to securing a second term as head of state. Nauseda took 44.5% of vote, while Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte came in second with 19.9%, the Election Committee said on its website. (Bloomberg, 05.13.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• “Russia oftentimes starts its wars poorly and finishes strong,” Stephen J. Hadley, the national security adviser under President George W. Bush, said at a Harvard conference on May 10. Now, he said, Russia has “brought its mass” — a far larger population to draw troops from, and a “huge military infrastructure” — to mount a comeback. (NYT, 05.15.24)
• Alexander Schallenberg, Austria’s foreign minister, declared in a recent interview with Reuters that it was “delusional” to think the West as a whole could decouple from Russia. (FT, 05.13.24)

Footnotes

1. Between 2013 and May 16, 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian foreign leaders a total of 43 times. This is more than double the number of meetings he has had with Indian and U.S. foreign leaders in the past decade, with whom Xi has met with less than 20 times despite them being the countries he has the second and third greatest number of meetings with, respectively. (The Economist, 05.14.24)
2.  Machine-translated.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slide photo by Kremlin.ru shared under a Creative Commons 4.0 license.