Russia in Review, March 9-16, 2018

This Week’s Highlights:

  • The groups behind attacks on U.S. energy targets are allegedly linked to Russian intelligence agencies, but they are different from the two hacking groups that were reported to have been involved in the election interference. This suggests that at least three separate Russian cyberoperations could have been underway in U.S. simultaneously.
  • British intelligence services believe the nerve agent that poisoned Sergei Skripal could have been planted in his daughter’s suitcase before she left Moscow.
  • In spite of the U.K.’s efforts to retaliate against Russia over what London sees as Moscow’s complicity in the poisoning of Sergei Skripal, investors from Europe account for most of the demand for Gazprom’s $927 million bond that was so oversubscribed that the energy giant was able to cut its borrowing costs by knocking about 38 basis points off its yield.
  • Russia would retaliate against both U.S. missiles and their delivery vehicles if the U.S. launched strikes on Damascus, Valery Gerasimov, head of the General Staff of the Russian Federation’s armed forces, said.
  • Special counsel Robert Mueller has subpoenaed the Trump Organization in recent weeks to turn over documents, including some related to Russia. Trump said last July that Muller would be crossing a red line if he looked into his family’s finances beyond any relationship with Russia
  • Year-on-year number of U.S. tourists visiting Russia grew by 25 percent from January 2017 to September 2017.
  • Merkel has indulged Putin’s craving for quality German beer while the Russian leader—who says his paternal grandfather cooked for Lenin and Stalin—has repaid the German chancellor with her favorite smoked fish.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

  • No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

  • No significant developments.

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

  • Saudi Arabia's crown prince asserted on March 15 that the kingdom will develop nuclear weapons if Iran does, in a television interview immediately denounced by Tehran. (RFE/RL, 03.16.18)
  • U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Joseph Votel said he shares the views of U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Joe Dunford that the Iran deal is still in the best interests of the United States. (RFE/RL, 03.14.18)
  • Mike Pompeo, whom U.S. President Donald Trump has picked as his new Secretary of State, was among the harshest critics of the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran. (New York Times, 03.14.18)
  • Iran has signed a $742 million deal with Russian state-owned energy firm Zarubezhneft to boost production at two oil fields in the country's west. (RFE/RL, 03.15.18)

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent speech highlighting nuclear weapons that he claimed could be used to attack the U.S. was “disappointing but unsurprising” and does not alter the Pentagon’s strategic plan to counter Moscow, according to U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. While still CIA director, Mike Pompeo shared a similar assessment: “Americans should rest assured that we have a very good understanding of the Russian program and how to make sure that Americans continue to be kept safe from threats from Vladimir Putin.” (The Washington Post, 03.11.18)
  • NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says the West is not looking to start a new Cold War or an arms race with Russia, but he reiterated that the military alliance will defend “all allies against any threat.” Stoltenberg also said alliance members increased their defense spending in 2017 for the third consecutive year, amid complaints from U.S. President Donald Trump that only a handful of NATO allies met their pledges. Overall, NATO countries—not including the U.S.—spent an estimated 1.45 percent of their annual economic output on defense spending last year. (RFE/RL, 03.15.18, The Washington Post, 03.15.18)
  • Estonia says a Russian military cargo plane has violated its airspace near Vaindloo Island in the Baltic Sea. (RFE/RL, 03.12.18)

Missile defense:

  • U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis is adamant that Russia’s recently unveiled nuclear weapons delivery vehicles will not change the strategic balance between Washington and Moscow. Moreover, Mattis said that he believes that Russia is wasting its money in developing weapons to overcome American missile defenses because those systems are simply not capable of taking on the Kremlin’s nuclear arsenal. (The National Interest, 03.12.18)

Nuclear arms control:

  • No significant developments.

Counter-terrorism:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said that in 2014, he ordered a passenger aircraft reportedly carrying a bomb targeting the opening of the Winter Olympic Games in Sochi to be shot down. The threat turned out to be a false alarm and the plane was not shot down. (The Moscow Times, 03.11.18, CNN, 03.12.18.)
  • Russia’s Federal Security Service has said that it arrested dozens of members of an “ethnic criminal group” in Moscow suspected of smuggling Islamic State fighters from Russia to Iraq and Syria. (The Moscow Times, 03.14.18)
  • Russia’s Federal Security Service says its units have foiled "terrorists" who were planning to carry out an attack near the city of Saratov, killing an undisclosed number of “criminals.” (RFE/RL, 03.12.18)

Conflict in Syria:

  • Syrian government and Russian airstrikes killed at least 46 people in the besieged town of Ghouta outside Damascus on March 16, while Turkish shelling and attacks on a Kurdish-held town in northern Syria left at least 22 dead there. Syrian government forces earlier divided the eastern Ghouta enclave outside Damascus into two, dealing a major setback to rebels and threatening to exacerbate an already dire humanitarian situation. (AP, 03.16.18, AP, 03.11.18)
    • U.S. President Donald Trump's national security adviser Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster on March 15 warned Russia and Iran that the U.S. wouldn't stand by while America's rivals cement their hold on power in Syria. McMaster's position appeared increasingly precarious. Trump has decided to oust McMaster and has conveyed that decision to John Kelly, his chief of staff. (Wall Street Journal, 03.15.18, Wall Street Journal, 03.15.18)
    • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has warned that Syrian rebels under siege in eastern Ghouta will be given no relief, saying a 30-day cease-fire approved by the U.N. does not include “terrorists.” (RFE/RL, 03.14.18)
    • Reports from Syria say thousands of civilians are fleeing eastern Ghouta into government-held territory, as government forces continue to advance. (RFE/RL, 03.15.18)
  • Valery Gerasimov, head of the General Staff of the Russian Federation’s armed forces, said Russia would retaliate if the U.S. launched strikes on Damascus. “In case the lives of our soldiers are under threat, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will take retaliatory measures both against missiles and against the delivery vehicles used,” he was quoted as saying. (Financial Times, 03.13.18)
  • U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis warned Syria on March 11 it would be “very unwise” for government forces to use weaponized gas, as he cited unconfirmed reports of chlorine attacks in eastern Ghouta and slammed Russian support for Damascus. (Reuters, 03.11.18)
  • U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley has said it is ready to act in Syria to end chemical attacks and "inhuman suffering" if Russia, Iran and Syria continue to allegedly ignore a 30-day cease-fire approved by the U.N. (RFE/RL, 03.12.18)
  • While still CIA director, Mike Pompeo accused both Russia and Iran of threatening U.S. interests as they pursue long-term roles in Syria. “The president asks me nearly every day what it is the intelligence community knows about the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons and who else, the Russians or the Iranians, who might be responsible for them.” (Bloomberg, 03.13.18)
  • An investigative report by Russian media outlet Znak suggests more Wagner Group mercenaries—at least 150 fighters—are being prepared to deploy in Syria within the next couple of weeks. (Al Monitor, 03.09.18)

Cyber security:

  • The Trump administration accused Russia on March 15 of engineering a series of cyberattacks targeting American and European nuclear power plants and water and electric systems, and could have sabotaged or shut off power plants at will. The strikes accelerated in late 2015, and the groups behind the energy attacks, which are linked to Russian intelligence agencies, appear to be different from the two hacking groups involved in the election interference, suggesting that at least three separate Russian cyberoperations were underway simultaneously. A report released by the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI on March 15 also described sophisticated Russian government attempts to target American and European airports and other critical infrastructure via cyberattacks. (New York Times, 03.15.18, The Washington Post, 03.15.18)
  • Russia-linked Twitter accounts sought to spur racial and political discord in Wisconsin after a police officer's fatal shooting of a black man sparked riots. (AP, 03.15.18)
  • German public prosecutors have opened an investigation into a suspected cyberattack in December 2016 on the German Institute for International and Security Affairs carried out by a Russian hacking group. Authorities suspect the group known as "Fancy Bear" or "APT28" was behind the attack. (RFE/RL, 03.09.18)

Elections interference:

  • The Trump administration on March 15 issued for the first time sanctions against Russia for meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and for cyberattacks. The sanctions target the Kremlin's intelligence agencies, the FSB and GRU, and the three entities, including the Internet Research Agency, and 13 Russian individuals indicted by special counsel Robert Mueller last month for interference in the 2016 presidential election. In sanctioning a total five entities and 19 individuals, the U.S. Treasury also cited a cyberattack known as NotPetya and a nerve agent attack in the U.K. that left a former Russia spy and his daughter in critical condition earlier this month. (Wall Street Journal, 03.15.18, Financial Times, 03.15.18, Bloomberg, 03.15.18)
    • U.S. Sen. Bob Corker, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee who helped broker the sanctions law last year, said he was satisfied with the March 15 announcement but skeptical that new punishments would ultimately change Russia's behavior. (New York Times, 03.15.18)
    • Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov says that Moscow will respond to a new set of U.S. sanctions by expanding its "blacklist" of Americans who are barred from traveling to Russia. Ryabkov said that Russia is preparing sanctions against "a new group of American actors" and possible "additional" measures. (RFE/RL, 03.16.18)
  • Republican lawmakers on the House Intelligence Committee have drafted a report saying the panel's yearlong probe into Russian election interference found no evidence that Moscow colluded with Donald Trump's campaign or that the Kremlin favored Trump in the 2016 race. (The Wall Street Journal, 03.13.18)
    • On March 12, U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted in capital letters that the panel "Found no evidence of collusion." (The Wall Street Journal, 03.13.18)
    • The House Intelligence Committee 's top Democrat, Rep. Adam Schiff, called Republicans' announcement a "tragic milestone for this Congress" and "yet another capitulation to the executive branch." (The Wall Street Journal, 03.13.18)
    • Republican Rep. Tom Rooney said that the investigation had "gone completely off the rails" and "lost all credibility." Asked whether he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin had sought to help Trump—which the draft report disputes—he said, "Absolutely." (The Wall Street Journal, 03.13.18)
  • Special counsel Robert Mueller has subpoenaed the Trump Organization in recent weeks to turn over documents, including some related to Russia. The order is the first known instance of the special counsel demanding records directly related to U.S. President Donald Trump’s businesses, bringing the investigation closer to the president. The subpoena is the latest indication that the investigation, which Trump’s lawyers once regularly assured him would be completed by now, will continue for at least several more months. Trump said in a July interview with The New York Times that Muller would be crossing a red line if he looked into his family’s finances beyond any relationship with Russia. (New York Times, 03.15.18)
  • Special Counsel Robert Mueller is getting close to wrapping up his inquiry into whether U.S. President Donald Trump obstructed justice, but it might be a while before the public learns what he’s discovered. Mueller is considering putting his findings on ice while he finishes other portions of the probe, including possible Trump campaign collusion with Russia and the hacking of the Democratic National Committee. (Bloomberg, 03.12.18)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump’s lawyers are seeking to negotiate a deal with special counsel Robert Mueller that uses an interview with the president as leverage to spur a conclusion to the Russia investigation. (Wall Street Journal, 03.09.18)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump on March 11 disputed a New York Times report that said he’d had discussions with a veteran lawyer about joining the White House to help handle matters related to the special counsel inquiry. The newspaper reported that Emmet T. Flood, who represented former U.S. President Bill Clinton during his impeachment process, had met with Trump in the Oval Office last week and that Trump had not made a final decision on whether to bring on Flood, who would help the White House manage its contacts with the Justice Department. (Reuters, 03.11.18)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin responded brusquely when NBC interviewer Megyn Kelly asked if he condoned the interference that was alleged in last month's U.S. indictment by special counsel Robert Mueller. "It's all the same to me. To me it absolutely makes no difference because they do not represent the government," Putin answered. Putin also suggested that some of the 13 Russian nationals indicted by the United States may not be ethnically Russian. "Maybe they are not even Russians, but Ukrainians, Tatars or Jews, but with Russian citizenship, which should also be checked," he said. Putin said Russia has neither the tools nor the will to meddle in elections.  In the interview, Putin claimed that the United States interferes in Russian elections "all the time" but that it was "impossible for us" to do the same. Top Democratic leaders in the House and Senate implored Trump to employ “all resources available” to extradite 13 Russians charged last month with subverting the 2016 presidential election after Putin raised the possibility of Jewish involvement. (AP, 03.10.18, New York Times, 03.12.18)
  • Paul Manafort, ex-chairman of the Trump campaign, urged a federal judge to dismiss the money laundering and illegal lobbying charges against him, attacking the foundation of a case that could send him to prison for 20 years. Manafort’s lawyers argued that Mueller exceeded his authority under an appointment that directed him to investigate possible collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign, and that while Mueller can also investigate other matters that arise from his investigation, he’s abused that authority. (Bloomberg, 03.14.18)
  • “The Russians attempted to interfere in the United States election in 2016. They also did so before that. There’s a long history of Russian efforts to influence the United States and conduct influence operations against the United States. And it was Russians who actually engaged in this, not somebody from outside of the country or disconnected from Russia,” Mike Pompeo, the newly appointed U.S. Secretary of State, has said previously. (Bloomberg, 03.13.18)

Energy exports:

  • No significant developments.

Bilateral economic ties:

  • TMK, Russia's largest firm for steel pipes for the oil and gas industry, said on March 9 it expected new U.S. import tariffs on steel and aluminum to benefit its U.S. unit IPSCO. (Reuters, 03.09.18)

Other bilateral issues:

  • Outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson issued a parting word of advice to Russia. “Much work remains to respond to the troubling behavior and actions on the part of the Russian government,” Tillerson said at a March 13 briefing, outlining areas where he had been unable to achieve success. (The Moscow Times, 03.14.18)
  • The Kremlin has expressed a measure of hope for improved relations with the U.S. following U.S. President Donald Trump's nomination of Mike Pompeo as secretary of state, saying bilateral ties cannot get much worse. Russian senators have expressed cautious optimism over the announcement. (RFE/RL, 03.14.18, The Moscow Times, 03.13.18)
  • Targeted Western sanctions that restrict certain individuals from traveling or conducting business in the U.S. have impeded business ties. But broader restrictions designed to cripple Russia’s oil, gas and defense industries by strangling their access to technology and finance have largely failed to live up to expectations. Russia’s oil production rose to a 30-year high last year of 10.98 million barrels a day. (Financial Times, 03.15.18)
  • White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders would not say March 15 whether the administration considers Russia a friend or foe, instead turning the onus on Moscow. (The Washington Post, 03.15.18)
  • The United States remains the world's top weapons seller, accounting for 34 percent of global arms sales over the past five years, according to a new report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Russia was the second-largest exporter with about 20 percent of all global arms deliveries. (RFE/RL, 03.12.18)
  • U.S. President Donald Trump was so eager to have Russian President Vladimir Putin attend the 2013 Miss Universe pageant in Moscow that he wrote a personal letter to Putin inviting him to the event. (The Washington Post, 03.09.18) 
  • Year-on-year tourist numbers from the U.S. grew by 25 percent in January-September 2017, the head of Russia’s Federal Tourism Agency Oleg Safonov told the pro-government Izvestia newspaper on March 15. (The Moscow Times, 03.15.18)
  • Maryland-based company Transport Logistics International has agreed to pay $2 million to settle charges that it bribed a Russian official to win contracts to ship uranium to the United States. (The Moscow Times, 03.14.18)
  • Evgeny Viktorovich Spiridonov, a Russian citizen described as a gun developer for Kalashnikov Concern, a company currently under U.S. sanctions, is expected to plead guilty to a federal charge of attempting to violate U.S. export controls in January. (The Washington Post, 03.16.18)
  • “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” director Rian Johnson reportedly batted off a legion of Russian bots who launched a campaign pleading to save the life of a ruthless military general named General Hux. (The Moscow Times, 03.14.18)

II. Russia’s domestic news

Politics, economy and energy:

  • Some of Russia’s wealthiest people added $29.5 billion to their collective net worth during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s latest presidential term, recouping steep losses following his annexation of Crimea. (Bloomberg, 03.15.18)
  • Nonresidents now hold one-third of Russia’s domestic government bonds, compared with barely any six years ago. And Russian bonds still look attractive, with a 10-year yield of just under 7 percent, while inflation has fallen well below the central bank's 4 percent target. (Wall Street Journal, 03.15.18)
  • Just as British Prime Minister Theresa May was spelling out the U.K.’s response to the poisoning of a former Russian spy on British soil, European investors were helping a state-owned Russian company do brisk business in the bond market. Demand was so high for a 750 million euro ($927 million) bond sale from Moscow-based Gazprom PJSC that the energy giant was able to cut its borrowing costs by knocking about 38 basis points off its yield. Most of the demand for the oversubscribed bond came from continental Europe. (Bloomberg, 03.15.18)
  • “There is evidence of reverse capital flight back from the West into Russia,” said Christopher Granville, a managing director of global political research. Recently announced targeted sanctions from the U.S. Treasury and threats of asset freezes by the U.K. government are making some wealthy Russians nervous, Granville said. (CNBC, 03.16.18)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin has an approval rating of around 80 percent, according to polls, making the challenge for the Kremlin not how to assure his victory against a cast of weak opponents, but how to boost voter turnout and legitimize an uncompetitive election. On March 16, Putin launched a televised appeal for Russians to vote in the elections, warning those who fail to vote that the decision will be made without taking their opinion into account. He also attended a rally in Sevastopol on March 14. "The Kremlin has great hopes it can get voter turnout above 70 percent, so they're basically buying votes," said Valery Solovey, a political analyst and professor at Moscow's State Institute of International Relations. Central Election Committee head Ella Pamfilova said there have been no directives from the Kremlin to bolster voter turnout. (Wall Street Journal, 03.15.18, The Moscow Times, 03.16.18, The Moscow Times, 03.12.18, The Washington Post, 03.15.18)
  • Yevgeny Roizman, the mayor of Yekaterinburg, Russia's fourth-largest city with 1.4 million people, is the only top regional official to openly criticize Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has also called for a boycott of the March 18 presidential vote. (AP, 03.16.18)
  • Russia’s Communist Party and President Vladimir Putin’s supporters are reportedly the only political groups planning to take to the streets after the March 18 presidential elections. (The Moscow Times, 03.14.18)
  • Amnesty International has accused Russia of mounting a "fierce crackdown" on political activists ahead of this week's presidential election, systematically violating their rights through "arbitrary" arrests and detentions. (RFE/RL, 03.15.18)
  • Russian antifascist activist Ilya Kapustin has fled to Finland after accusing the Federal Security Service of torturing him, his lawyer said. (The Moscow Times, 03.14.18)
  • Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has become the latest woman to accuse influential Russian lawmaker Leonid Slutsky of sexual harassment. (RFE/RL, 03.11.18)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin's paternal grandfather worked as a cook for both Vladimir Lenin and Joseph Stalin, the president said in a film posted on the internet on March 11. (Reuters, 03.11.18)

Defense and aerospace:

  • Russia is claiming that its Avangard hypersonic boost-glide strategic nuclear delivery vehicle could be operational and sitting on alert as early as next year. Earlier, senior Russian defense officials had said that the weapon would soon enter serial production. (The National Interest, 03.15.18)
  • Russia says it has successfully test-fired a "hypersonic" missile, which Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this month claimed flies 10 times faster than the speed of sound. The Kinzhal (Dagger) missile was launched from a MiG-31 aircraft that took off from an airfield in Russia's Southern Military District. (RFE/RL, 03.11.18)
  • Russia will launch a mission to Mars next year, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised in a documentary published on the eve of presidential elections that he is widely expected to win. (The Moscow Times, 03.15.18)
  • Rosatom has put out a request for tenders for "unloading spent nuclear fuel from decommissioned submarines of the Project 667BDR class, Nos. 395 and 397." These submarines are K-223 Podolsk and K-433 Svyatoy Georgiy Pobedonosets, respectively. The two submarines must have been withdrawn from service. (Russian Forces, 03.14.18)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

  • No significant developments.

III. Foreign affairs, trade and investment

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

  • British Prime Minister Theresa May announced March 14 that her government will expel 23 Russian diplomats from Britain. It will be the biggest expulsion of Russian diplomats from the country since 1985. May's announcement came after the poisoning of former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia. British authorities have concluded that the two appeared to have been targeted for assassination last week with the nerve agent Novichok, which London claims to have traced back to the Russian state. Other steps May announced included new laws to give security services the power to detain individuals suspected of “hostile state activity” at the British border; increased checks on private flights, customs and freight; freezing Russian state assets “wherever we have the evidence that they may be used to threaten the life or property of U.K. nationals or residents; police targeting “serious criminals and corrupt elites;” and a high-level boycott of this year’s soccer World Cup in Russia. More steps will be taken against the Kremlin in secret, May said, a hint that Britain could launch cyberattacks on Russian interests. (The Washington Post, 03.14.18, Bloomberg, 03.14.18, AP, 03.14.18) 
  • The nerve agent that poisoned Sergei Skripal was planted in his daughter’s suitcase before she left Moscow, British intelligence agencies now believe. (The Daily Telegraph, 03.15.18)
  • British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said the evidence of Russian guilt was "overwhelming" because only Moscow had access to the poison used and a motive for harming Sergei Skripal. (The Moscow Times, 03.15.18)
  • Britain is accusing Russia of violating the Chemical Weapons Convention by failing to declare the military-grade nerve agent Novichok, which it says was used to poison Sergei Skripal. Britain's deputy U.N. ambassador also says the government is asking the international chemical weapons watchdog to independently verify its analysis that a military-grade nerve agent from the former Soviet Union was used to poison Skripal. (AP, 03.14.18, AP, 03.14.18)
  • U.K. Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn warned Prime Minister Theresa May against sparking a new cold war after she expelled 23 Russian diplomats and unveiled a raft of other measures. “Measures to tackle the oligarchs and their loot would have a far greater impact on Russia’s elite than limited tit-for-tat expulsions,” he wrote. Labor MPs said they were “furious,” “bloody fuming” and “in a deep depression” after Corbyn questioned the U.K. government’s decision to blame Russia for the Salisbury nerve agent attack. (Financial Times, 03.14.18, Bloomberg, 03.15.18)
  • Britain’s Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson on March 15 told Russia to "go away and shut up” after the expulsion of the diplomats. "[Williamson's comment] perfectly characterizes the degree of his intellectual impotence," Russia's Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said in response. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov seized on Konashenkov's observation, speculating that Williamson made the comments because he was "not educated enough." (The Moscow Times, 03.16.18)
  • Britain is warning travelers to Russia that they could face anti-British sentiment amid political tension between London and Moscow over the poisoning of ex-spy Sergei Skripal. (AP, 03.14.18)
  • The leaders of the U.S., Germany and France said that all evidence pointed to Russia for the poisoning of two people in England and called for an urgent explanation from the Kremlin. In a joint statement with the U.K. issued in Berlin March 15, U.S. President Donald Trump, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron said they were “horrified” by the attack on Sergei Skripal and his daughter and that there’s “no plausible alternative explanation” to Russia being responsible. "It sounds to me like it was Russia based on all the evidence they have," Trump said about the attack as he left the White House on March 13. Trump then on March 15 said "it looks like" Russia was behind the poisoning of Skripal and his daughter. U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley is calling the assassination attempt part of "an alarming increase" in the use of chemical weapons—and says Russia is "a growing concern in all of this dangerous and destabilizing activity." (AP, 03.14.18, Reuters, 03.16.18, Bloomberg, 03.15.18, Bloomberg, 03.13.18)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said on March 12 that Britain should work out what happened to Sergei Skripal before talking to Russia. “Get to the bottom of things there, then we’ll discuss this,” Putin was quoted as saying when asked about the alleged poisoning. (Reuters, 03.12.19)
  • "The mentioned Russian citizen [Sergei Skripal] worked for one of the British intelligence services, the incident occurred in Great Britain. This is not a matter for the Russian government," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. (The Moscow Times, 03.12.18)
  • Russia will soon expel British diplomats in retaliation for Britain's decision to kick out 23 Russian envoys over a chemical attack on Sergei Skripal, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on March 15. Lavrov has dismissed British accusations of Moscow's involvement in the attack. He added that Russia has no motive to poison Skripal—but "those who want to press their Russophobic campaign in all spheres of life could have it." Lavrov also accused Britain of breaching international law in its investigation of the attack. “Britain’s failure to cooperate on [the] Skripal poisoning is a major violation of chemical weapons convention,” Lavrov said. (Bloomberg, 03.15.18, AP, 03.14.18, The Moscow Times, 03.15.18)
  • Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on March 15 described allegations by British Prime Minister Theresa May that Russia was to blame for the nerve agent poisoning of Sergei Skripal as insane. She added: "Britain is refusing to provide any factual information on this case. There is no mention about, for example, providing Russia with samples of the substance that was found at the crime scene." She also said one of the many reasons to dismiss Britain's accusations against Moscow in the poisoning of a Russian ex-spy and his daughter is a suspicious absence of video footage. (AP, 03.14.18, The Moscow Times, 03.15.18)
  • Russia's U.N. ambassador says "the only civilized way" of settling the issue of responsibility for the assassination attempt against Sergei Skripal is a joint British-Russian investigation. (AP, 03.14.18)
  • Vladimir Uiba, the head of Russia’s Federal Medical and Biological agency, said that Novichok didn't fall under the Chemical Weapons Convention that entered force in 1997. He wouldn't say if Russia inherited any amounts of Novichok from the Soviet Union and whether they were destroyed. Russian Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov said on March 14 that Russia completed the destruction of its chemical weapons stockpiles last year under the convention. (AP, 03.14.18)
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel is dismissing the idea of acting as an intermediary in the escalating spat between London and Moscow. Germany's new foreign minister Foreign Minister Heiko Maas says Berlin "can fully and completely understand" why Britain took action over the poisoning of a former Russian spy. Merkel said the immediate priority of EU leaders discussing the attack would not be to discuss a potential boycott of the soccer World Cup in Russia. (AP, 03.14.18, AP, 03.14.18, Reuters, 03.16.18)
  • An Italian politician who hopes to be Italy's next premier says he'll rethink his pro-Russia stance if Moscow is proven to have poisoned an ex-spy. Matteo Salvini, whose Euro-skeptic League is cozy with Russia, expressed skepticism that Russia is involved in the nerve agent attack on Sergei Skripal. (AP, 03.14.18)
  • EU Council President Donald Tusk has said the nerve agent attack on a former spy in England was most likely "inspired" by Moscow and said he would put the issue to European Union leaders at a summit next week. (AP, 03.14.18)
  • The U.N. says Secretary-General Antonio Guterres strongly condemns any use of nerve agents, calling their use as a weapon "unacceptable" and warning that use by a state "would constitute a serious violation of international law." (AP, 03.14.18)
  • Wealthy Russian emigres in Britain have reportedly been given police protection following the high-profile poisoning of a former Russian spy that London blames on Moscow. (The Moscow Times, 03.14.18)
  • British counter-terrorism police were investigating the unexplained death of Nikolai Glushkov, Russian associate of late tycoon Boris Berezovsky, but said the death was not thought to be linked to the nerve agent attack on Sergei Skripal. (The Moscow Times, 03.13.18)
  • In 1995, one of Russia's best-known bankers, Ivan Kiveledi, dropped into a coma and died three days later. Prosecutors called it a hit by criminals who sprinkled his office telephone with the Novichok agent reportedly obtained from a little-known government laboratory. Novichok was one of the Soviet Union's most-secretive projects. Details about Novichok were first revealed in the early 1990s and that publicity led its chemical structure to be leaked, making it readily available for reproduction elsewhere, said Ralf Trapp, a France-based consultant on the control of chemical and biological weapons. "The chemical formula has been publicized and we know from publications from then-Czechoslovakia that they had worked on similar agents for defense in the 1980s," he said. "I'm sure other countries with developed programs would have as well." (Wall Street Journal, 03.15.18)
  • The police in New Zealand said on March 15 that they were looking into a claim that a man who said he once worked for Russian intelligence was poisoned in Auckland more than a decade ago. Boris Karpichkov, who said he worked for the KGB before becoming a double agent and later claiming asylum in Britain, spent 15 months in New Zealand in 2006 and 2007. (New York Times, 03.14.18)
  • Ex-Federal Security Services chief Nikolai Kovalyov has said that spies follow an “unwritten law” against poisoning the relatives of rival agents and cast doubt on accusations that Moscow had attempted to kill a former double agent in Britain. (The Moscow Times, 03.13.18)
  • Although British Prime Minister Theresa May pledged to distance the Tories from Russian donors, Russian oligarchs and associates registered donations of more than 820,000 pounds ($1.1 million) to the party since May became prime minister. (Bloomberg, 03.11.18)
  • The Council of Europe, Europe’s leading human rights body, is confronting a budget crisis linked to a row with Russia over money, which could ricochet into the furious debate between Western countries and Moscow over the U.K. nerve agent attack. (The Guardian, 03.16.18)
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel was asked about a Russian television portrait of the president in which Putin said that she had sent him bottles of his favorite German beer. “For my part, I once got some very good smoked fish,” she said. It’s not clear when the gifts were exchanged. (Bloomberg, 03.12.18)

China:

  • Russia has opened its uranium mining industry to foreign investment with an agreement signed March 12 between the Russia-China Investment Fund for Regional Development, ARMZ Uranium Holding and the Priargunsky Industrial Mining and Chemical Union. The three parties to the agreement will work on a uranium mining project, valued at 18.5 billion rubles ($325 million), in the Priargunsky district in the Zabaikalsky Region of Siberia. (World Nuclear News, 03.13.18)

Ukraine:

  • The European Union on March 12 said it had extended sanctions against Russia, imposed over the annexation of Crimea and supporting rebels in eastern Ukraine, for another six months. The sanctions, including travel restrictions and asset freezes against 150 people and 38 companies, would be extended until Sept. 15. (The Moscow Times, 03.12.18)
  • Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has reiterated that Kiev is seeking a Membership Action Plan, a formal step toward joining NATO. Poroshenko's comments came after NATO updated its website to include Ukraine alongside three other countries—Bosnia-Herzegovina, Georgia and Macedonia—that have declared their aspirations to NATO membership. (RFE/RL, 03.10.18)
  • Ukraine says one of its soldiers has been killed and three wounded in clashes in the country's east. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said on March 12 that Russia-backed separatists violated a frequently breached cease-fire several times during the previous 24 hours by firing machine guns. (RFE/RL, 03.12.18)
  • Lawmaker and former Russian captive Nadia Savchenko has traded incendiary accusations with senior Ukrainian authorities and faces possible arrest over what Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Yuriy Lutsenko alleged was a detailed plan for a devastating "terrorist" attack on parliament. (RFE/RL, 03.15.18)
  • The European Union's foreign policy chief says the EU will extend a 1 billion euro ($1.2 billion) loan to struggling Ukraine. Federica Mogherini, who was visiting Kiev on March 12, told reporters the loan should "support Ukraine's economic stability and structural reforms." "There is no fatigue in our support for Ukraine, also because we have seen results," Mogherini said at a press briefing with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. While in Kiev, Mogherini also pressed Ukraine to do more to fight corruption and establish an anticorruption court that is in accordance with recommendations of independent experts. (AP, 03.12.18, Reuters, 03.12.18, RFE/RL, 03.12.18)
  • Thirteen of Ukraine's most enthusiastic backers in the EU have piled pressure on Kiev by warning that the implementation of important reforms are "just beginning or lagging behind." (RFE/RL, 03.14.18)
  • Gazprom is refusing to pay a net $2.6 billion that the Stockholm panel awarded to Naftogaz, calling the ruling “unbalanced,” and to restart supplies of gas to Ukraine that the panel said Kiev was obliged to buy. As international law permits, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has said Kiev might try to seize Gazprom assets abroad if the Russian company does not pay. (Financial Times, 03.14.18)
  • The Ukrainian government has ordered its athletes not to take part in any competitions held in Russia. (RFE/RL, 03.14.18)
  • The new OSCE envoy for the Transdniester conflict says that Russia and Ukraine have equally important roles in resolving the decades-old dispute between Moldova and its eastern breakaway region. (RFE/RL, 03.12.18)
  • The Ukrainian grain association says bigger harvests mean exports could jump as much as 70 percent by 2022. (Bloomberg, 03.12.18)

Russia’s other post-Soviet neighbors:

  • Tajik President Emomali Rahmon has discussed bilateral ties with Kazakh counterpart Nursultan Nazarbaev in Astana. Several documents signed after the talks on March 14 include an agreement allowing Tajiks to stay in Kazakhstan and Kazakhs to stay in Tajikistan for up to 30 days without registration and up to 90 days with registration. (RFE/RL, 03.14.18)
  • Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev has changed the name of Uzbekistan's national security service, a move seen as another step aimed at shaking up the long-feared main successor of the KGB in the Central Asian country. Mirziyoev signed a decree changing the name from the National Security Service, or Milliy Xavfsizlik Xizmati, to the State Security Service, or Davlat Xavfsizlik Xizmati. (RFE/RL, 03.15.18)
  • A court in Astana has sentenced former Kazakh Economy Minister Quandyq Bishimbaev to 10 years in prison after convicting him on charges of bribery and embezzlement. (RFE/RL, 03.14.18)
  • Former member of the Moldovan parliament Iurie Bolboceanu has been sentenced to 14 years in prison on charges of high treason and espionage for Russia. (RFE/RL, 03.14.18)
  • A newly established opposition group held its first rally in the Armenian capital on March 10. Supporters of the Front for the State of Armenia group gathered in Liberty Square in Yerevan, where they called for the creation of a provisional government and the release of political prisoners. (RFE/RL, 03.10.18)

IV. Quoteworthy

  • “[While] Russia is not on the edge of regime change, the regime is changing,” wrote Ivan Krastev and Gleb Pavlovsky, chairman of the Center for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and a former Kremlin spin-doctor, respectively, in a recent paper. “The coming presidential elections will mark the arrival of post-Putin Russia regardless of whether Putin remains the head of state for the next six or 16 years.” (Financial Times, 03.15.18)