5 Things to Know

1. Russia is earning up to $150 million a day in extra budget revenue from oil sales, making it the biggest economic winner from the Iran war, according to The Financial Times’ estimate earlier this week. The New Yorker likewise reports, citing Russian analyst Alexandra Prokopenko, that if current prices hold, Moscow could gain about $3.5 billion a month in extra oil revenue—roughly a third of its estimated monthly war costs in Ukraine—as its exports bypass the Hormuz bottleneck via the Bosphorus and pipelines. After the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent decision by the U.S. to ease its Russia oil sanctions imposed over Russia’s war with Ukraine, demand for Russian crude from India and China has surged, giving Moscow a $1.3 billion–$1.9 billion tax windfall in the first 12 days and a projected $3.3 billion–$4.9 billion by the end of March if Urals averages $70–$80 a barrel instead of $52, according to the FT estimate.
2. Western official officials say Russia is playing an increasingly active role in supporting Iran’s war effort, even as Moscow denies providing targeting data to Tehran. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Washington is “tracking everything” amid reports that Russia is sharing intelligence with Iran on U.S. military movements, insisting such activity is factored into American planning, according to The Wall Street Journal. U.S. President Donald Trump has alternately called questions about Russian targeting support “stupid” while also conceding that U.S. officials believe Moscow may be passing along the locations of U.S. assets, according to WSJ. Russian intelligence is said to be supplying satellite imagery, reconnaissance data and drone-targeting tactics, along with “lessons learned” from Ukraine on swarm attacks and strikes on energy infrastructure, according to Bloomberg. Despite these reports, Russian officials told the Trump administration that their country is not sharing targeting intelligence with Tehran.
3. Ukraine is emerging as an important supplier of anti-drone expertise and systems as Iranian drone attacks put pressure on air defenses in the Gulf. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine will send advisers and systems to the region, drawing on Ukraine’s four years of counter‑Shahed experience and cheap FPV interceptor drones and acoustic/EW networks, according to The Washington Post. At the moment, Saudi Aramco and other Gulf buyers are racing to secure Ukrainian interceptor drones and electronic‑warfare gear, according to FT and WSJ. On March 8, The Washington Post reported that the Trump administration has urgently asked Ukraine for help countering Iranian Shahed drones after swarms repeatedly breached U.S. and Gulf defenses. On March 9, New York Times reported, citing Zelenskyy, that Ukraine has sent interceptor drones and a team of specialists to help defend U.S. military bases in Jordan from Shahed‑type drone attacks after a request from Washington. On March 13,  however, Trump told Fox News  the U.S. doesn’t need Ukrainian help with drones. "No, we don't need [Ukraine's] help in drone defense," Trump said in the interview. "We know more about drones than anybody. We have the best drones in the world, actually."
4. RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Feb. 10–March 10, 2026) indicates that Russian forces lost 57 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (area roughly equivalent to two and a half Manhattan Islands) during that period, a notable contrast to the 182 square miles they gained over the previous four-week period (Jan. 13–Feb. 10, 2026). Additionally, during the past week of March 3–10, 2026, Russian forces lost 30 square miles, contrasting with the Russian forces’ gain of 25 square miles of Ukrainian territory in the preceding one-week period of Feb. 24–March 3, 2026, according to ISW data analyzed in the latest issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. These estimates contrasted with Vladimir Putin’s description of the hostilities that he shared with Trump during their March 10 conversation. During the one-hour phone call, Putin was quoted as telling Trump that the Russian forces are advancing rather successfully and argued this should encourage Kyiv to move toward a negotiated settlement. Speaking the following day, Putin claimed that Kyiv now controls only 15–17% of the territory of the Donetsk Oblast, down from about 25% six months ago. According to ISW’s March 10 estimate, however, Ukraine presently holds about 19% of this eastern province, which is about 0.8 percentage point less than a Feb. 24 RM estimate. These territorial changes occurred as the Iran crisis prompted the U.S., Ukraine and Russia to pause the next round of negotiations on the Ukraine-Russia war.
5. Forbes’ 2026 global rich list now includes a record 155 Russian billionaires, up from just 88 at the start of the full‑scale war in 2022 and rising for the fourth year in a row. Severstal co‑owner Alexei Mordashov tops the Russian cohort with an estimated $37 billion (up from $28.6 billion), followed by Norilsk Nickel and T‑Bank co‑owner Vladimir Potanin at $29.7 billion and Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov at $29.5 billion. 14 Russians are new to the list this year, according to Meduza.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Russia plans to control the restart and operation of the Russian‑occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant once security allows but is open to discussing electricity supplies to Ukraine, Rosatom chief Alexei Likhachev said after talks with IAEA head Rafael Grossi in Moscow. He said two reactors are already licensed, while Grossi warned the plant cannot operate safely under ongoing military threats. (Reuters, 03.13.26)
• The head of Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom said March 9 that up to 200 Russian staff of the Bushehr nuclear power plant and their family members are ready to be evacuated from Iran due to U.S.-Israeli strikes. (MT/AFP, 03.09.26)
• Ursula Von der Leyen also said Europe’s nuclear share has dropped from about one-third of electricity generation in 1990 to “close to 15%” today, calling that decline a “strategic mistake.” (Wall Street Journal, 03.11.26) 

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

Friday, March 6, 2026

• Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, offering condolences over the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other victims of what he called “Israeli-American aggression against Iran.” The Kremlin said Putin reiterated Russia’s call for a rapid end to the conflict and pledged to stay in close contact with Tehran. Putin said Russia opposes “force as a method” and urging an “immediate cessation of hostilities.” (Wall Street Journal, 03.06.26, ISW, 03.06.26)
• Iran has fired more than 2,000 Shahed‑type drones in a week at Israel, Gulf states and others, killing six U.S. troops in Kuwait on Feb. 28 and reportedly knocking out a TPY‑2 radar in Jordan. Shaheds cost about $55,000–$100,000 each versus $1–15 million for Russian ballistic missiles, and Ukrainian intelligence believes Russia can produce up to 500 a day. Ukraine, which in January alone destroyed a record 1,704 Shaheds (about 70% by FPV interceptors), now fields small AI‑aided FPV drones costing roughly $2,500 per shot—around 20 times cheaper than their targets—and sea‑launched interceptor swarms from unmanned boats. (The Economist, 03.06.26)
• Russian media report that Moscow police detained between 20 and 45 Iranian citizens who had gathered near Salaryevo metro station on March 1 after an Instagram call by a woman named Reyhane to hold a “celebration of joy” following U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran.. (Meduza, 03.06.26)

Saturday, March 7, 2026

• U.S. officials say an American-made anti-drone system, Merops, which has proven effective against Russian Shaheds in Ukraine, will soon be deployed in the Middle East to bolster defenses against Iranian drones. Merops uses small interceptor drones launched from a pickup-sized platform, can operate with AI when GPS/comms are jammed, and offers a far cheaper way to down Shaheds than Patriot or THAAD interceptors, addressing what lawmakers call a “math problem” of firing million‑dollar missiles at $50,000 drones. (Washington Post, 03.07.26)
• U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Washington is “tracking everything” amid reports that Russia is sharing intelligence with Iran on U.S. military movements, insisting such activity is factored into American planning. He said the administration is not worried about being put in danger and that “the only ones that need to be worried right now are Iranians that think they’re going to live.” (Wall Street Journal, 03.07.26)

Sunday, March 8, 2026

• U.S. President Donald Trump bristled when asked about reports that Russia is sharing targeting information with Iran on U.S. forces in the Middle East, calling it “a stupid question” and refusing to answer, saying he wanted to stay on other topics. Trump downplayed the significance of any Russian intelligence support to Tehran, telling reporters that “if they’re getting information, it’s not helping them much,” even as he acknowledged U.S. officials believe Moscow may be passing along locations of U.S. assets. His comments come amid bipartisan criticism of his decision to grant India a one‑month waiver to keep buying Russian oil. (Wall Street Journal, 03.08.26, Washington Post, 03.08.26) 
• The Trump administration has urgently asked Ukraine for help countering Iranian Shahed drones after swarms repeatedly breached U.S. and Gulf defenses. Zelenskyy said Kyiv will send advisers and systems, leveraging four years of experience and cheap FPV interceptor drones and acoustic/EW networks developed against Russian Shaheds. Analysts say Washington failed to absorb Ukraine’s lessons, leaving Patriots and fighter jets expensively swatting $30,000–$50,000 drones while Iran has already launched over 2,000 and may fire up to 5,000 in the first month. (Washington Post, 03.08.26) 
  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine will send an unspecified number of military experts on March 9 to the Middle East to train partners in downing Shahed drones, cruise missiles, and other aerial threats, as three Gulf states (likely the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait) seek to buy Ukrainian interceptor drones. Ukrainian firms say they can export significant volumes: SkyFall estimates capacity for up to 50,000 interceptors a month, with 5,000–10,000 available for export, while TAF Industries confirms direct requests from the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait—though operator training remains the main bottleneck. (ISW, 03.08.26)
• A classified U.S. National Intelligence Council assessment, completed just before the U.S.-Israeli strikes began, warns that even a large-scale U.S. assault is “unlikely” to topple Iran’s entrenched clerical–military establishment, casting doubt on President Trump’s goal of “cleaning out” the regime and installing a leader of his choosing. The report concludes that succession mechanisms are designed to preserve continuity of power and sees little chance of a fragmented opposition seizing control, despite Trump’s public talk of hand‑picking Tehran’s next ruler. (Washington Post, 03.08.26)

Monday, March 9, 2026

• On March 9, Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters that “this evening a telephone conversation between the presidents of Russia and the United States took place,” and said the “accent, indeed, was placed on the situation around the conflict with Iran and on the bilateral negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement being conducted with the participation of U.S. representatives.” Ushakov said Putin outlined ideas for ending the Iran conflict based on recent talks with Gulf leaders, and characterized the conversation as “business‑like, open and constructive.”  Several hours later, Trump told reporters he had "a very good call with Putin." "He wants to be helpful [with Iran]. I told him you can be more helpful by ending the war in Ukraine," Trump said of the one hour call. (Axios,03.10.26, RIA Novosti, 03.09.26, Financial Times, 03.10.26, Reuters, 03.10.26)
  • Hegseth said Trump’s call with reaffirmed “the opportunity for some … peace in Russia [and] Ukraine” and that Moscow “should not be involved” in the Iran war, despite reports Russia has shared targeting intelligence on U.S. assets with Tehran. Hegseth, who was not on the call, described it as “strong” and said those present viewed it positively, even as Washington warns Russia against deeper participation in the conflict. (Financial Times, 03.10.26)
  • Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff said Russia told Washington during Trump’s March 9 call with Putin that it is not sharing targeting intelligence with Iran for strikes on U.S. forces in the Middle East. Witkoff added that he and Jared Kushner received the same denial from Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov in a separate call and are “ready to take them at their word,” despite a Washington Post report citing three sources who said Moscow has provided coordinates for U.S. targets and was “very happy” to hit back given U.S. support for Ukraine. (Meduza, 03.11.26, Financial Times, 03.11.26)
  • On Ukraine, Ushakov said that “President Trump once again expressed interest that the conflict on Ukraine should end with the quickest possible move to a ceasefire and the achievement of a long-term settlement.” He characterized this as a reiteration that Trump “is interested” in seeing the war brought to “a speedy ceasefire” and a durable resolution. Putin told Trump during their March 9 phone call that Russian forces are “advancing rather successfully” in Ukraine and argued this should “encourage” Kyiv to move toward a negotiated settlement, even as Ukraine claims to have retaken more than 400 square kilometers (about 150 square miles) in Dnipropetrovsk region and the Institute for the Study of War says recent Ukrainian counterattacks may disrupt Russia’s planned spring–summer offensive. (RIA Novosti, 03.09.26, Wall Street Journal, 03.10.26, Washington Post, 03.10.26)
  • Ushakov also noted that the two presidents “touched upon the issue of Venezuela,” explaining that this was discussed “primarily in the context of the state of affairs on the global oil market.” By linking Venezuela and Iran both to oil, he suggested that energy prices and supply disruptions caused by the “conflict with Iran” formed a third strand of the conversation alongside Iran itself and the Ukraine talks. (RIA Novosti, 03.09.26)
• Putin congratulated Mojtaba Khamenei on becoming Iran’s new supreme leader, saying his role “will require great courage and self‑sacrifice” as Iran faces “armed aggression” and expressing confidence he will “honorably continue your father’s work.” Putin pledged Russia’s “unchanging support” and called Moscow a “reliable partner” of the Islamic Republic, signaling clear backing for Tehran’s new leadership after Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint U.S.–Israeli strike. (Meduza, 03.09.26)
• Ukraine has sent interceptor drones and a team of specialists to help defend U.S. military bases in Jordan from Iranian Shahed‑type drone attacks after a request from Washington, Zelenskyy told The New York Times, as cited by the Wall Street Journal. He said Kyiv “reacted immediately,” leveraging counter‑drone expertise honed over four years of shooting down about 87 % of incoming one‑way attack drones. The New York Times reports that Ukraine has fielded interest from Bahrain, the UAE, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and hopes to trade its cheaper interceptors and know‑how for scarce U.S. Patriot systems and added diplomatic pressure on Russia to pause its war. (New York Times, 03.09.26, Wall Street Journal, 03.09.26) 

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

• The Kremlin said Putin and Pezeshkian again discussed the Middle East war, with Putin reiterating Russia’s “principled position” in favor of rapid de-escalation and a political solution. Pezeshkian thanked Russia for its support, including humanitarian aid, while Moscow emphasized it is in “constant contact” with Gulf Cooperation Council leaders and continues to call for an “immediate” end to hostilities and a return to diplomacy. (Interfax, 03.10.26)
• In February, Russia launched about 5,000 one‑way attack drones and decoys at Ukraine, of which Ukrainian defenses downed roughly 87%; by contrast, in just the first days of the Iran war Gulf states fired more than 800 Patriot missiles to counter over 2,000 Iranian drones and 500 ballistic missiles. (New York Times, 03.10.26)
• Axios reports that Ukrainian officials warned the Trump administration in an August 18, 2025 White House meeting that “Iran is improving its Shahed one‑way‑attack drone design,” and offered battle‑tested interceptor drones via a detailed PowerPoint proposing “drone combat hubs” in Turkey, Jordan and Gulf states. The proposal envisioned joint production to build up to 20 million low‑cost interceptors, but U.S. officials “did nothing” until after Iran’s war began; Shaheds cost an estimated $20,000–$50,000 each and have already killed seven U.S. service members, while the U.S. and allies have spent millions of dollars intercepting them with high‑end munitions. (Axios, 03.10.26)
• The Kremlin declined on March 10 to say whether the United States had warned it against sharing intelligence with Iran. Witkoff said March 7 he had "strongly" communicated to Russia not to share targeting information with Tehran. When asked by AFP about Witkoff's statement, or whether Trump and Putin had discussed the issue in a phone call on March 9, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment. (MT/AFP, 03.10.26)

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

• Russia is giving Iran “specific advice” on drone tactics, CNN reported March 11, in a sign of more sophisticated support than previously reported, even as officials in the Trump administration have sought to downplay the alleged information sharing. “What was more general support is now getting more concerning, including [drone] targeting strategies that Russia employed in Ukraine,” a Western intelligence official told CNN on condition of anonymity. (MT/AFP, 03.11.26)
• Russia’s Foreign Ministry said its consulate building in Isfahan was damaged on March 8 when a strike hit the nearby provincial governor’s office, with blast waves shattering windows in the consulate and diplomats’ apartments and knocking several staff off their feet, though no one was seriously injured. Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called attacks on diplomatic premises a “flagrant violation” of international law and demanded all parties strictly respect the inviolability of embassies and consulates, even as Russian missile and drone strikes in Ukraine have repeatedly damaged third‑country missions, including the Azerbaijani and Qatari embassies in Kyiv this year. (Meduza, 03.11.26)

Thursday, March 12, 2026

• Zelenskyy confirmed that three groups of Ukrainian specialists—military personnel, engineers and drone experts—have deployed to strengthen U.S. and allied air defenses in the Middle East, following earlier deliveries of Ukrainian interceptor drones to protect U.S. bases in Jordan. ISW notes Ukraine has institutionalized four years of experience countering Iranian‑made Shaheds and can offer unique tactics and “lessons learned” against Iranian strikes. (ISW, 03.12.26)
• The longtime leader of Russia’s Communist Party warned March 11 that the United States may be planning to attack Russia following its war with Iran. “We will be next. Look at Trump’s strategy. China is first, we are second, Iran is third,” Gennady Zyuganov said during a session of the lower-house State Duma. (MT/AFP, 03.12.26)
• Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has slammed Iranian strikes on the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states, saying attacks on civilian infrastructure in third countries were “unacceptable” even if carried out in response to what he described as American and Israeli aggression. (MT/AFP, 03.12.26)

Friday, March 13, 2026

• In a Fox News interview March 13, Trump said the U.S. doesn’t need Ukrainian help with drones. "No, we don't need their help in drone defense. We know more about drones than anybody. We have the best drones in the world, actually." Trump said\ in that interview that Putin might be helping Iran. “I think he might be helping them a little bit, yeah, I guess,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News that will air in full later March 13. “And he probably thinks we’re helping Ukraine, right?” “Yeah, we’re helping them also,” Trump continued. “And so he says that, and China would say the same thing, you know. It’s like, hey, they do it and we do it in all fairness.” (AP, 03.13.26, Status-6 X account, 03.13.26, RBC-Ukraine, 03.13.26, Kyiv Independent, 03.13.26)
• The Trump administration has already burned through “years” worth of critical munitions in the Iran war, including a “massive expenditure” of Tomahawk cruise missiles, raising concern about U.S. readiness for future conflicts with Russia or China, the Financial Times reports. It is a “massive expenditure of Tomahawks”, said one person familiar with the U.S. military’s use of munitions. The navy will be feeling this expenditure for several years. (Financial Times, 03.13.26) 
• Russian intelligence is providing Iran with multiple forms of military support for its strikes against the U.S., Israel and Gulf allies, including satellite imagery, other reconnaissance data and drone‑targeting tactics, in a deepening partnership built after Moscow imported and then mass‑produced Iranian Shahed drones for use in Ukraine. Officials and experts cited by Bloomberg say Russia is also effectively sharing “lessons learned” from Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 03.13.26)
  • U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey said Iran’s Shahed drone tactics increasingly bear “Putin’s hidden hand,” citing briefings that Russian advisers have passed back battlefield lessons from Ukraine, including flying drones much lower to evade defenses. He noted Iran has already launched more than 2,000 Shaheds across the Middle East since Feb. 28, helping push oil to around $100 a barrel and delivering “sky‑high” prices that uniquely benefit Putin by pumping fresh funds into Russia’s war on Ukraine. (The Guardian, 03.13.26)
• Russia has delivered its first physical humanitarian aid shipment to war‑hit Iran, the Russian embassy in Tehran said in a statement carried by Iranian state media. An Il‑76 aircraft transported more than 13 tons of medicines to Azerbaijan with Putin’s approval, after which the cargo was handed to Iranian officials and taken into the country. (Financial Times, 03.13.26)
• Zelenskyy met exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi in Paris on March 13, reiterating Kyiv’s support for the Iranian people’s struggle for freedom. Zelenskyy condemned attacks launched from Iran against Middle Eastern and Gulf states and said Ukraine wants a “free and democratic Iran” that does not cooperate with Russia. Pahlavi denounced Tehran’s ties with Moscow, affirmed Ukraine’s sovereignty, and discussed regime and IRGC losses. (Korrespondent.net, 03.13.26)
• Zelenskyy said Ukraine has received six requests for assistance from Middle Eastern countries and will clarify what specific support partners expect after a Ukrainian delegation returns from the Persian Gulf region. He did not detail which states had approached Kyiv or what forms of aid were under discussion. (Ukrainska Pravda, 03.13.26)
• Ukrainian defense firms are seeing “phones ringing off the hook” as Gulf states and other allies seek Ukraine’s cheap, battle‑tested drone‑interceptor systems against Iranian Shaheds; Kyiv is trying to turn this demand into long‑term security partnerships and leverage in talks with Washington, especially after the U.S. decision to suspend some Russian oil sanctions that fund the Kremlin’s war. (New York Times, 03.13.26) 
  • Saudi Aramco is in talks with at least two Ukrainian firms—SkyFall and Wild Hornets—to buy interceptor drones that ram or explode near hostile UAVs, in order to protect its oil fields from Iranian attacks. Aramco is “racing” to secure systems ahead of its own government and regional rivals such as Qatar, while Saudi officials are also discussing Ukrainian electronic‑warfare gear from Phantom Defense to jam drone communications. (Wall Street Journal, 03.13.26)
• EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas  said Iran’s “ballistic missile launchers and missile factories” have been heavily degraded but warned Tehran can “still terrorize” with drones, and outlined an EU push to broker “matchmaking” under which Ukraine supplies drone‑interceptor systems and know‑how to Middle Eastern states, reducing demand for high‑end air defenses that Kyiv needs against Russian missile attacks. (Financial Times, 03.13.26)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

Monday, March 9, 2026

• Russia’s winter campaign has turned Kyiv’s energy grid into a primary target, with January–February 2026 bringing “some of the most sustained assaults” on heating and power systems since 2022 and leaving “hundreds of thousands” without heat in subzero temperatures. After a Jan. 9 barrage, Mayor Vitalii Klitschko said 6,000 residential buildings—nearly half the capital’s stock—lost heat; as of March 2, 1,100 apartments still had no heating and are expected to remain cold for the rest of the season, while DTEK and Ukrainian Railways crews work in a “relentless cycle of destruction and restoration” under fire. (Foreign Policy, 03.09.26)
• The New York Times reports that Zelenskyy’s 27‑hour round trip to the Donetsk front comes as Russia’s full‑scale war enters its fifth year and has killed more than 15,000 civilians and “hundreds of thousands” of soldiers on both sides. Nearly 200,000 people still live in Ukrainian‑held parts of Donetsk (slightly larger than Delaware), with the front line about 10 miles from Kramatorsk. (New York Times, 03.09.26)

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

• Russia’s deportation and forcible transfer of Ukrainian children amounts to a crime against humanity, a United Nations investigative body said March 10. The probe was established by the United Nations Human Rights Council shortly after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Investigators said Russia had deported or transferred “thousands” of children from occupied areas of Ukraine, confirming 1,205 cases so far. “Four years on, 80% of the children deported or transferred in the cases investigated by the commission have not returned,” the report said. (MT/AFP, 03.10.26)
• Ukraine has sent interceptor drones and a team of experts to U.S. military bases in Jordan to help counter Iranian attack drones, after Washington requested assistance on March 7, Zelenskyy said. A second Ukrainian team will soon travel to the Middle East to help states assess how to defend against Shaheds without expending costly Patriot missiles; Zelenskyy said Kyiv is offering help partly in hopes that Gulf countries with “very strong relations with Russia” will press Moscow to pause its war on Ukraine. (Meduza, 03.10.26)

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

• Politico reports that if Hungary and Slovakia keep blocking the EU’s planned €90 billion Ukraine loan, a group of Nordic and Baltic countries is preparing up to €30 billion in bilateral loans to keep Kyiv solvent through the first half of 2026; the Netherlands has separately earmarked €3.5 billion a year in bilateral support until 2029. An IMF package approved in late February—$8.1 billion, with $1.5 billion disbursed immediately—means Ukraine should have enough cash until early May, easing earlier EU fears it would run out of money by end‑March as Budapest and Bratislava tie the loan to repairs on the Druzhba oil pipeline. (Politico Europe, 03.11.26) 

Thursday, March 12, 2026

• The New York Times says Russia launched 15 large-scale strikes on Ukraine’s energy system between December and February—over three times the average of the previous three winters—leaving Kyiv’s 3.5 million residents on average without power for about half of each day in January. DTEK data cited in the article show that on some days, especially after major strikes, “virtually all of Kyiv” briefly went dark, with the share of customers without electricity peaking at close to 100 % during the worst outages. (New York Times, 03.12.26) For a useful NYT chart on customers without power in Kyiv, follow this link.

Friday, March 13, 2026

• Ukraine has restored 3.5 gigawatts of generating capacity at thermal power plants, combined heat and power plants, and hydropower plants out of more than 9 gigawatts damaged by Russian strikes, First Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal told the Ukrainian parliament. He said plans call for restoring about 4 gigawatts in total, including more than 2 gigawatts by the end of May, which will support the system during scheduled nuclear-plant maintenance. Shmyhal reported that the energy situation in March has been stabilized, with many regions facing no outages and others experiencing only limited cuts, and that electricity imports now cover 12% of consumption. Ukraine is also receiving equipment from decommissioned European power plants and expanding partnerships to rebuild its grid. (Korrespondent.net, 03.13.26) 
• Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power infrastructure caused new electricity outages March 13 morning in six regions: Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson, grid operator Ukrenergo reported. Emergency repair work is under way where security conditions allow. Due to damage from earlier mass strikes, nationwide limits for industry are planned from 17:00 to 23:00, with rolling household outages from 17:00 to 22:00. Consumption has stabilized at seasonal levels, and Ukrainians are urged to shift heavy use to 11:00–16:00 when solar generation is strongest. (Korrespondent.net, 03.13.26)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Feb. 10–March 10, 2026) indicates that Russian forces have lost 57 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (area roughly equivalent to two and a half Manhattan Islands) during that period, a notable contrast to the 182 square miles they gained over the previous four-week period (Jan. 13–Feb. 10, 2026). Additionally, during the past week of March 3–10, 2026, Russian forces lost 30 square miles, contrasting with the Russian forces’ gain of 25 square miles of Ukrainian territory in the preceding one-week period of Feb. 24–March 3, 2026, according to ISW data, according to the latest issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 03.10.26)
• The Economist reports that thousands of Africans have been fighting for Russia in Ukraine, often after being lured by fake job offers. Ukraine says 1,780 African nationals from 36 countries are currently enrolled in the Russian army; Kenya’s intelligence service estimates more than 1,000 Kenyans have been involved, with 89 still at the front. Recruits describe being forced to sign year‑long Russian‑language contracts and sent to the front after a week’s training, with one estimate suggesting 42% of foreign fighters are killed within four months. (The Economist, 03.05.26)

Friday, March 6, 2026

• On March 6, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Popivka, Vysoke, Komarivka and occupied Sopych. (RM, 03.06.26)
• Ukrainian forces have liberated about 244 square kilometers in southern Ukraine’s Hulyaipole–Oleksandrivka sector since Jan. 1, 2026, while Russian troops captured roughly 115 square kilometers, according to ISW’s mapping. Ukrainian units have advanced around Ternove, Berezove, Novomykolaivka, Novohryhorivka and Solodke, cleared areas west of the Haichur River, and retain positions in central Hulyaipole, contradicting Russian claims of wider gains. Geolocated footage also shows fresh Ukrainian advances northeast of Andriivka, underscoring continued localized offensive progress despite intense fighting. (ISW, 03.06.26)

Saturday, March 7, 2026

• On March 7, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Udachne. (RM, 03.06.26)
• Russia unleashed one of its heaviest mixed barrages in months overnight March 6–7, firing 29 missiles and 480 attack drones—nearly half the missiles ballistic—across Ukraine,Ukrainian air defenses said they downed 19 missiles and 453 drones, but nine missiles and 26 drones still hit 22 locations. Russia used two Zirkon cruise missiles, 13 Iskander‑M/S‑400 ballistic missiles and 14 Kalibr cruise missiles, an unusually high share of ballistic weapons that likely seeks to exploit Ukraine’s Patriot shortages as U.S. and Gulf stocks are drawn into the Iran war. A ballistic strike that flattened a five‑story apartment block in Kharkiv killed at least 10–11 people (including at least two children) and wounded around 10–16 others; 19 apartment buildings, a school and nearby kiosks were damaged. Some 2,000 buildings in Kyiv lost heat, while port, energy and rail infrastructure in Odesa and other regions was hit, sparking major fires and disrupting operations. (ISW, 03.07.26, Bloomberg, 03.07.26,  New York Times, 03.07.26, New York Times, 03.08.26, Washington Post, 03.07.26)
• ISW says Russia has laterally redeployed elite units from the Pokrovsk and Dobropillya fronts to southern Ukraine to counter recent Ukrainian gains near Hulyaipole, Orikhiv, and Polohy. Elements of the 68th Army Corps’ 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade and 1472nd Regiment, the Pacific Fleet’s 40th Naval Infantry Brigade and new 55th Naval Infantry Division, and key regiments of the 76th Airborne Division have been moved into the Zaporizhia–Dnipropetrovsk sector to reinforce the Eastern Grouping of Forces. (ISW, 03.07.26)
• Ukrainian commanders in the Slovyansk and Kostyantynivka–Druzhkivka areas say Moscow still aims to seize the “Fortress Belt” cities of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka by summer 2026, but Russian advances there have slowed and previous ambitious deadlines have been repeatedly missed, now further complicated by Ukrainian gains near Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka. (ISW, 03.07.26)
• Ukrainian forces struck a Russian Shahed drone storage and launch site near occupied Donetsk Airport on March 7 using a combination of ATACMS and SCALP‑EG missiles, the Ukrainian General Staff said. The strike triggered a large fire and secondary detonations; geolocated footage confirms the hit on a facility Russia has been building since at least August 2025. (ISW, 03.07.26)

Sunday, March 8, 2026

• On March 8, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Huliaipole. (RM, 03.06.26)
• An overnight Ukrainian drone attack killed one person and injured around 10 others in the Russia-occupied southern Zaporizhzhia region, Moscow-installed authorities said March 8. (MT/AFP, 03.08.26)
• Ukrainian officials confirmed that Russia has redeployed elements of the Pacific Fleet’s 40th Separate Naval Infantry Brigade from the Pokrovsk and Dobropillya areas to the Hulyaipole sector, where geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces striking the unit near Olenokostyantynivka. On March 8 the brigade mounted a small mechanized assault east of Hulyaipole with one tank, one armored vehicle and two ATVs, which Ukrainian troops repelled—an unusual use of armor as Russia has recently favored small infantry infiltrations. (ISW, 03.08.26)

Monday, March 9, 2026

• On March 9, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Piddubne (RM, 03.06.26)
• ISW says Ukrainian counterattacks south of Zaporizhzhia City and around Orikhiv have “virtually halted” the Russian Dnepr Grouping’s advances, forcing elements of the 58th Combined Arms Army and attached airborne units to defend instead of pushing toward Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian troops out of Novoyakolivka, northern Lukyanivske, and much of Prymorske, while repeated Russian assaults near Robotyne, Bilohirya, Mala Tokmachka and Mali Shcherbaky have failed—undermining Moscow’s plan to link its Hulyaipole and Orikhiv axes and outflank Ukraine’s east–west defenses for a summer drive on Zaporizhzhia City. (ISW, 03.09.26)
• A ISW assessment argues that Ukrainian counterattacks around Oleksandrivka, Hulyaipole and across Zaporizhzhia are exposing how thinly stretched Russia’s force structure is, forcing the Kremlin to pull elite VDV and naval infantry units from Donetsk Oblast just to stabilize the southern front. With elements of Russia’s operational reserve already committed to routine combat and lateral redeployments likely to weaken planned Spring–Summer 2026 operations against Ukraine’s “Fortress Belt” cities, ISW concludes that Moscow “simply does not have the capacity to overrun Ukrainian defenses” at the scale Putin repeatedly claims. (ISW, 03.09.26)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry said March 9 its air defense systems had shot down or intercepted 163 Ukrainian drones over 13 regions and annexed Crimea overnight. (MT/AFP, 03.09.26)

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

• On March 10, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Bessalivka, Stupochky and Udachne.  (RM, 03.13.26)
• Putin told Denis Pushilin that Kyiv now controls only 15–17% of the territory of the self‑declared Donetsk People’s Republic, down from about 25% six months ago, according to RIA Novosti. He claimed reconstruction in occupied Donetsk is proceeding “at a fairly rapid pace” despite “colossal damage,” and said housing construction in the region—once one of the USSR’s most developed industrial centers—is growing at “good rates.” (RIA Novosti, 03.10.26)
  • ISW’s evidence-based estimate shows Ukraine holds about 19% of the oblast now, versus 23.4% in September 2025—meaning Moscow is overstating gains by roughly a factor of two—and notes that Ukrainian liberated territory in southern Ukraine (at least 275 sq km) exceeded Russian gains in February 2026. (ISW, 03.10.26)
• ISW says Ukrainian forces have advanced 10–12 km deep in two drives in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast since late January 2026, with Maj. Gen. Oleksandr Komarenko stating they have liberated “more than 400 square kilometers” in the Oleksandrivka direction and “almost all” of the oblast. ISW’s conservative mapping confirms roughly 279 square kilometers liberated in the Oleksandrivka–Hulyaipole sector and recent gains in Novohryhorivka, Kalynivske, Stepove and Ternove, leaving Russian troops holding only five small settlements in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (ISW, 03.10.26)
• Zelenskyy said Ukrainian intelligence has obtained Russian documents putting Russia’s own losses at 1.315 million killed and seriously wounded since the full-scale invasion began in 2022. (ISW, 03.10.26)
• Ukrainian forces used long‑range Storm Shadow cruise missiles to strike the Kremniy El microelectronics plant in the Russian city of Bryansk on March 10, killing six people and injuring at least 42, according to regional governor Alexander Bogomaz. Local authorities declared a day of mourning as 20 wounded were hospitalized in Bryansk and nine in serious or critical condition were transferred to Moscow. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the plant produces components for Russian missiles used against Ukrainian cities; Ukraine’s General Staff released strike footage and said the goal was to reduce Russia’s “military economic potential,” with videos showing around five explosions at the site. Before the war, up to 94 % of Kremniy El’s output reportedly went to the Russian military, including parts for Pantsir air‑defense systems and Iskander missile complexes; Kyiv now calls it a “critically important link” in Moscow’s missile production chain. (Meduza, 03.11.26, iStories, 03.11.26, New York Times, 03.11.26, Washington Post, 03.12.26)
  • Kyiv and Moscow gave differing accounts of a Ukrainian strike on Russia's Bryansk border region. (RFE/RL, 03.10.26)
  • Russia’s Foreign Ministry summoned the British and French ambassadors on Friday to protest the Ukrainian missile strike on Bryansk that Moscow says used UK- and French-supplied Storm Shadow missiles. (The Moscow Times, 03.13.26)
• At least two people were killed and 19 others were injured in the southwestern Belgorod region over Russia’s extended holiday weekend, local authorities said March 10, a day after the country celebrates International Women’s Day. Belgorod region Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov announced the deaths in a message on Telegram but did not specify how the two people were killed. His message suggested they may have died in a Ukrainian drone attack. (MT/AFP, 03.10.26)

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

• On March 11, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced in Berestok and near Fedorivka Druha. (RM, 03.13.26)
• Russia’s state-controlled energy giant Gazprom said March 11 that Ukrainian forces had repeatedly attacked infrastructure linked to two Black Sea gas pipelines supplying Turkey and southeastern Europe, in what Moscow described as an attempt to disrupt exports. Gazprom said facilities tied to the TurkStream and Blue Stream pipelines in southern Russia had been targeted 12 times over the past two weeks. Ukrainian officials have not yet commented on the claims. The latest incident occurred March 11 and involved a drone attack on the Russkaya compressor station in the Krasnodar region, Gazprom said. The day before, drones targeted the Beregovaya and Kazachya compressor stations, also located in the Krasnodar region, the company said. (MT/AFP, 03.11.26)
• The New York Times reports that Ukraine has cut the share of Chinese components in its domestically produced drones from nearly 100% in 2022 to about 38% by 2025 and can now build “China‑free” systems, at least in small series. Two Ukrainian firms making such drones have been selected for a Pentagon “drone dominance” program that will buy thousands of low-cost attack drones; one, Ukrainian Defense Drones, now produces up to 15,000 antennas a day and has localized production of frames, flight controllers, speed regulators, radio modems and video transmitters. Ukrainian commanders estimate drones now account for more than 90% of Russian casualties. (New York Times, 03.11.26) 

Thursday, March 12, 2026

• On March 12, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Yablunivka. (RM, 03.13.26)
• Ukraine hit an important hub for Russia’s network of crude-export pipelines in the southern Krasnodar region. As a result of Ukrainian drone attack, a large fire broke out at a terminal in Tikhoretsk, where a major oil depot and a pumping station are located, according to a person familiar with the matter, who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly. The facility is owned by Transneft PJSC, Russia’s state-run oil-pipeline operator. Transneft didn’t respond to a Bloomberg request for a comment on whether export flows or supplies to domestic refineries have been affected. (Bloomberg, 03.12.26)
• At least one person was killed and two others were injured in a Ukrainian drone attack on the southern Krasnodar region, local authorities said March 12. Krasnodar region Governor Venyamin Kondratyev said the afternoon attack targeted an agriculture company in the village of Novominskaya, located around 140 kilometers (87 miles) north of the regional capital. (MT/AFP, 03.12.26)
• iStories reports that Starlink traffic in Ukraine has fallen by about 75% since SpaceX blocked terminals in Russian-occupied areas on Feb. 4, according to Kentik analyst Doug Madory and Cloudflare data. Since then, usage has averaged only 25–30% of previous levels and has not recovered, suggesting Russia has failed to bypass the block; Russian units have been forced to lay new field cables that Ukrainian drones then target, and assault operations were briefly paused after the cutoff. (iStories, 03.12.26)

Friday, March 13, 2026

• Russian attacks on Dnipropetrovsk region on March 13 killed one person and wounded seven, regional governor Oleksandr Hanzha said. An 89-year-old man was killed and four others injured in Mezhova community in the Synelnykove district. A drone strike on Marhanets community in Nikopol district wounded two women, 61 and 52, one in serious condition. Another man, 37, was injured amid damage to infrastructure and housing. (Ukrainska Pravda, 03.13.26)
• Ukrainian outlet RBC.ua reports rumors that Russia is developing a ground-launched version of its Kh‑101 air‑launched cruise missile, using a solid-fuel booster. Defense Express analyst Ivan Kyrychevskyi said there is no reliable evidence such a system is ready and called the reports a likely “fake,” noting Russia already fields ground‑launched Iskander‑K cruise missiles. Aviation expert Kostyantyn Kryvolap added that if a ground‑launch Kh‑101 is in the works, it may indicate problems with Russia’s air‑launch capabilities following Ukraine’s “Operation Web” strikes. (RBC.ua, 03.13.26)
• Ukrainian security service SBU says it has arrested a Russian agent inside the armed forces who was allegedly preparing the assassination of Gen. Andriy Biletsky, commander of the 3rd Army Corps. Military counterintelligence, working with the Armed Forces’ commander-in-chief and the drone forces command, claims the “mole” was helping Russia plan a targeted missile–bomb strike on Biletsky’s location in the combat zone by recruiting a drone operator from another brigade in Kharkiv region. (RBC.ua, 03.13.26)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

Saturday, March 7, 2026

• Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said Ukraine stands to see some benefits from the conflict in the Middle East, which may hamper Russia’s ability to cooperate militarily with Iran. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, and Teheran’s counterattacks on U.S. bases in the Middle East as well as several neighboring countries mean “Iran and Russia are not able to cooperate right now on missiles or the defense industry,” Stubb said in an interview in Mumbai on March 7. (Bloomberg, 03.07.26)

Monday, March 9, 2026

• Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine has “not many Patriots left” to counter near‑daily Russian ballistic attacks just as the U.S.-led war with Iran is rapidly depleting global stocks of PAC‑3 interceptors, the New York Times and Bloomberg report. Bloomberg’s analysis says Iran has launched more than 2,100 attack drones and at least 688 ballistic missiles since the war began, prompting the U.S. and its allies to fire over 1,000 Patriot missiles in the Gulf region alone. Zelenskyy said Ukraine has received roughly 600 PAC‑3s in total over four years of full‑scale war—fewer than have been launched in the Middle East in just the last 11 days—raising fears that Washington and other partners will now husband their remaining stocks. With Russia intensifying long‑range barrages, Kyiv sees Patriot scarcity as one of its most acute vulnerabilities heading into a potential new offensive. (New York Times, 03.09.26, Bloomberg, 03.10.26)

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

• Ukraine has received only about 600 advanced Patriots over four years. (New York Times, 03.10.26)
• German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has secured agreements from several European partners to supply Ukraine with 30 PAC‑3 Patriot interceptor missiles, on top of five Germany will send itself, bringing the total package to about 35 missiles, Der Spiegel reports. Berlin will also provide MANPADS, AIM‑9 and IRIS‑T missiles, plus spare parts for Patriot and IRIS‑T systems; German officers say Ukraine is currently firing roughly 60 Patriot interceptors per month, and Kyiv has received around 600–700 such missiles over four years of war, according to Ukrainian and EU officials. (Strana.ua, 03.10.26)

Thursday, March 12, 2026

• Ukraine’s Western partners continue to bolster its defenses: German Bundestag President Julia Klöckner told the Verkhovna Rada that Berlin will provide an additional €200mn (about $230mn) for Ukrainian air defenses, including reconnaissance drones and civil‑defense measures, as Russia maintains high‑intensity missile and drone campaigns. (ISW, 03.12.26)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Sunday, March 8, 2026

• Ukraine on March 8 called on the Venice Biennale to keep Russia out of the prestigious art event after organizers said it could participate for the first time since launching its all-out invasion in 2022. (MT/AFP, 03.08.26)

Monday, March 9, 2026

• Retired Gen. David Petraeus urged Trump to “immediately” back a tough Russia sanctions bill that Sen. Lindsey Graham says has support from “over 90 out of 100 senators,” following reports Moscow is providing Iran with targeting intelligence. Petraeus told Fox News this assistance likely explains the improved precision of recent Iranian missile and drone strikes on U.S. assets, arguing Iran “does not possess” such high‑end intelligence capabilities on its own and that new U.S. sanctions should complement EU measures already in place. (Fox News, 03.09.26)
• Roman Abramovich has warned the U.K. government he will fight in court any attempt to confiscate the £2.35 billion proceeds from the 2022 sale of Chelsea, insisting the funds remain the property of Fordstam Ltd, his wholly owned company. In a letter seen by The Athletic, his lawyers say he is still “fully committed” to donating the money for “all” victims of the Ukraine war but accuse ministers of treating the donation as a punitive measure and lacking legal basis to impose a unilateral license or threaten litigation. (New York Times, 03.09.26)

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

• Disruptions in the aluminum trade caused by a widening conflict in the Middle East have pushed several Japanese auto-parts manufacturers into talks with Russian giant United Co. Rusal International PJSC, according to people with knowledge of the matter. (Bloomberg, 03.10.26)
• Spanish police have searched two luxury villas on the island of Mallorca that were previously linked to arms industry magnate Nikolai Kolesov, the newspaper El Pais reported, citing sources familiar with the investigation. The searches took place on March 9 as part of a probe led by the General Information Commissariat (CGI), a unit within Spain’s National Police, the sources said. Kolesov, the chief of Russian Helicopters, is a close associate of Sergei Chemezov, the head of Russia’s state defense conglomerate Rostec. (MT/AFP, 03.10.26)
• Sweden has detained a crew member of a Russian "shadow fleet" cargo ship it seized on March 6 off its coast on suspicion of transporting stolen Ukrainian grain, the Coast Guard said Sunday. The 96-meter Caffa was headed for St. Petersburg when armed Swedish police boarded it off the southern town of Trelleborg. Sweden's Coast Guard has said the ship is on Ukraine's sanctions list and was sailing under a false Guinean flag. The Russian Embassy in Stockholm has said that 10 of the 11 crew members are Russian nationals. "Findings that have been made have led to a crew member being detained and brought ashore," the Coast Guard said in a statement on March 8. (MT/AFP, 03.08.26)

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

• The leaders of the G7 member states on March 11 agreed not to ease the already imposed sanctions against Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron said after a video call with other G7 leaders to discuss the economic consequences of the war between the United States and Israel against Iran. As reported, the EU called on the United States to adhere to the ceiling of prices for Russian oil. The EU warning came after U.S. President Donald Trump said his administration was temporarily lifting some oil-related sanctions to stabilize the market and lower prices. (DW, 03.11.26)
• The European Commission has threatened to suspend or terminate a €2 million, three‑year grant to the Venice Biennale if it goes ahead with inviting Russia back to this year’s fair, saying the move is “not compatible” with the EU’s response to Moscow’s war on Ukraine. In a joint statement, commissioners warned culture must not become a platform for Kremlin propaganda, while 22 European ministers wrote separately that Russia’s pavilion — run by figures linked to state defense giant Rostec and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s family — risks helping Moscow “project an image of legitimacy and international acceptance.” (Financial Times, 03.11.26)
• Russian law enforcement authorities on March 10 announced criminal charges against Dutch and Ukrainian nationals over the return of Crimean gold artifacts to Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 03.11.26)

Thursday, March 12, 2026

• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Azerbaijan and three Central Asian republics are, via Slovakia, pushing to get Russian-Uzbek oligarch Alisher Usmanov removed from the European Union’s sanctions list ahead of a March 15 rollover of the bloc’s extensive blacklist. (RFE/RL, 03.12.26)

Friday, March 13, 2026

• Eight European leaders — from Germany, Poland, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland and Sweden — have called on the EU to ban entry for Russians who have fought in the war against Ukraine, warning they pose a “serious threat to internal security” given links to serious crimes. (Meduza, 03.13.26)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

• The United States has proposed another round of Russia-Ukraine talks next week, mediated by Washington, on ending four years of war, Zelenskyy said March 10. Zelenskyy said in an audio message sent to reporters, including AFP, that talks — initially planned for last week in the United Arab Emirates — had been postponed until next week by the U.S. "This was proposed by the American side, but we'll see what happens in the Middle East, to be honest," Zelenskyy told journalists, adding that the meeting "could be in Switzerland or Turkey." U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said in an interview with CNBC on March 10 that "there was supposed to be a trilateral this week." (MT/AFP, 03.10.26)
• Witkoff told CNBC he believes Ukraine peace talks may be approaching “a turning point,” saying “both sides are tired” and that Trump has been “generally successful” in similar crises, though this one is taking longer than expected. He added that the next U.S.–Russia–Ukraine trilateral meeting has been postponed to next week. (Strana.ua, 03.10.26)

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

• Russian state media and pro-Kremlin commentators are using the U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran to argue that Washington cannot be trusted as a mediator in Ukraine, pointing to the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei while Tehran was in talks with U.S. envoys as proof that negotiations with America “end with missiles hitting the capital.” Analysts such as Fyodor Lukyanov say the Iran campaign marks a shift to a world where negotiating partners can “at any moment” become targets, reinforcing hard‑liners’ belief that the Ukraine war will be decided on the battlefield, not at the table; at the same time, Moscow sees upside in higher oil prices, potential easing of U.S. oil sanctions, and possible diversion of Western weapons from Ukraine to the Middle East. (Washington Post, 03.11.26, Axios,03.11.26)
• ISW says the Kremlin is signaling it may raise its demands on Ukraine and NATO, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov declaring the 2022 Istanbul proposals no longer match the “changed reality” and senior officials calling them “irrelevant.” The Istanbul draft already required Ukrainian neutrality, drastic limits on its military, a ban on foreign military aid, and gave Russia and China vetoes over future security responses; ISW assesses Moscow is now setting informational conditions to demand even more sweeping concessions while recent Ukrainian counterattacks belie Russia’s claims of “battlefield reality” collapsing in its favor. (ISW, 03.11.26)

Thursday, March 12, 2026

• Zelenskyy said Kyiv is awaiting White House approval for a proposed U.S.–Ukraine agreement on joint drone production aimed at strengthening air defenses against large-scale attacks. The deal would integrate drones and missile defenses to counter swarms of Iranian-designed Shahed drone and missiles. (Washington Post, 03.12.26)

Friday, March 13, 2026

• Efforts to negotiate an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine have slowed to a crawl as the United States focuses on a widening conflict with Iran, leaving Ukrainians and their allies weighing what comes next for diplomacy -- and the battlefield. Both Kyiv and Moscow confirmed on March 12 that another round of trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the United States has been postponed. (RFE/RL, 03.13.26)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Monday, March 9, 2026

• A new 60 Minutes investigation reports that the U.S. government acquired a directed‑energy weapon via a Russian criminal network and has been testing it on animals, with injuries resembling those seen in more than 65 suspected Havana Syndrome victims. Earlier, then–CIA director William Burns told the program in 2022 that the agency still lacked “hard evidence” to connect all cases to a foreign adversary, but subsequent panel findings and leaked intelligence now point to Russian research and Unit 29155, as well as microwave‑ or radiofrequency‑based systems capable of causing the cognitive, balance, and vision problems described by affected U.S. officials and their families. (CBS News / 60 Minutes, 03.09.26) 

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

• Poland is building “San,” a €3.5 billion EU‑funded anti‑drone shield comprising 18 mobile batteries with radar, jammers, interceptor drones, 30mm guns and guided missiles integrated into national and NATO air defenses, after roughly 20 Russian drones violated Polish airspace in September. The system, developed by PGZ, Norway’s Kongsberg and Polish radar firm APS, is due to deliver first batteries before year‑end and reach full operational capability within 24 months, with APS saying the contract will more than double its revenues. (Financial Times, 03.10.26)

Friday, March 13, 2026

• The U.K. and Ireland agreed to run joint exercises to protect undersea cables and other critical infrastructure from “hostile threats” and Russia’s shadow fleet, updating a decade‑old defense pact to put cooperation on a more formal footing. The move follows repeated transits by Russian spy and auxiliary vessels such as Yantar near Irish waters and key cable and energy routes. (Financial Times, 03.13.26)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• The South China Morning Post reports that China’s draft 2026–2030 five‑year plan explicitly calls for “advancing preparatory work” on new China–Russia gas pipelines, widely interpreted as the 2,600 km Power of Siberia 2 route via Mongolia, with a projected annual capacity of 50 billion cubic meters. Analysts say key issues remain unresolved between Gazprom and CNPC—equity stakes, construction costs and gas pricing—but note a legally binding trilateral memorandum signed in Beijing last September and new Mongolian statements suggest “the ice has cracked,” with Russia likely to share financing and construction with Chinese partners as it seeks long‑term outlets for its gas amid Western sanctions. (SCMP, 03.09.26) 
  • The Financial Times writes that China’s new five‑year economic development plan, adopted this week, explicitly includes a new gas pipeline from Russia, underscoring how Trump‑era policies are pushing Beijing and Moscow closer together. As Western sanctions and the Iran war roil energy markets, the two countries are deepening energy and economic ties: China looks to Russia for long‑term supply security, while Moscow seeks a stable buyer for its gas and a way to offset Europe’s move away from Russian hydrocarbons. (Financial Times, 03.11.26) 
• One in five online companies in Russia launched last year, was launched by Chinese citizens, according to an analysis by T-Bank’s small and medium business banking and services division, T-Business. Of the 4,084 registered companies with a Chinese CEO or founder, 2,077 were in the e-commerce segment. The number of Chinese companies in Russia’s e-commerce segment grew 140% year-on-year, according to T-Business. It also marked around 20% of every e-commerce business registered in Russia in 2025. E-commerce accounted for more than half of all the newly opened companies with Chinese involvement, followed by 19% for wholesale trade and over 9% for retail trade. (MT/AFP, 03.09.26)
• The Financial Times publishes an analysis arguing that China and Russia are “capturing” emerging countries’ space sectors through bundled, ground‑based deals rather than rockets, citing a database of 807 deals involving 644 entities in 125 countries between 1990 and 2026. China has now overtaken Russia as the leading provider in this strategic niche, but Moscow remains deeply involved: in Venezuela, for example, Russia has built a ground and measurement station that ties Caracas’ navigation services to GLONASS, alongside multiple Chinese satellites and ground stations, creating long‑term dependencies and reliable pro‑Moscow votes in U.N. space forums. (Financial Times, 03.11.26)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Belarus’s Alexander Lukashenko threatened to “reach” NATO states if they treat Russia’s “Oreshnik” intermediate‑range missile complex in Belarus as a legitimate target, saying Belarus has weapons able to hit at 70–200 km and warning Western leaders not to “bark.” He touted “Oreshnik” as a mobile system with “a dozen decoys,” saying only one launcher would be real. Zelenskyy has urged NATO to regard the system as a lawful military target. (Ukrainska Pravda, 03.13.26)

Counterterrorism:

• A Moscow court has convicted 19 people over the March 2024 attack at Crocus City Hall that killed 149 people and injured more than 600. Fifteen defendants received life sentences, while four others were given prison terms of up to 22½ years. Authorities said the assault was carried out by four Tajik citizens who opened fire on concertgoers and set the building ablaze. A faction of Islamic State claimed responsibility. Russian officials, including Vladimir Putin, alleged Ukrainian involvement without presenting evidence, a claim Kyiv has strongly denied. (Washington Post, 03.12.26)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• Ukraine’s defense ministry will make millions of frontline drone videos and other combat data available to Ukrainian and allied firms to train AI models, aiming to improve automated targeting and “outperform Russia in every technological cycle,” Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said. The datasets, managed inside the ministry, will be used to boost autonomy in drones and other platforms while officials insist humans will still decide on lethal force. (New York Times, 03.12.26)
• Russian hackers have targeted messaging apps used by Dutch officials, intelligence services in the Netherlands said on March 9, part of what they described as a "large-scale global cyber campaign." (MT/AFP, 03.09.26)
• Putin publicly addressed Russia’s throttling of Telegram for the first time, echoing claims that foreign apps endanger troops and praising the state Max messenger, ISW says. In a choreographed meeting, a communications battalion commander insisted “there are no problems” on the front, but prominent milbloggers reacted angrily, calling Telegram “indispensable” below regiment level and accusing her of misleading Putin about real battlefield communications failures. The Kremlin appears to be seeking cover for a future Telegram ban amid strong pro‑war backlash. (ISW, 03.06.26)

Energy exports from CIS:

Saturday, March 7, 2026

• The U.S. has eased sanctions on Russian oil to calm a rapidly worsening global energy crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz under Operation Epic Fury, bne IntelliNews reports. Brent has jumped from about $65 to $90 a barrel, and Washington has already issued a 30‑day waiver allowing stranded Russian crude cargoes to reach India, balancing pressure on Moscow with the need to keep non‑Gulf supplies flowing as some producers run out of storage and shut wells. (bne IntelliNews, 03.07.26)

Sunday, March 8, 2026

• Putin mocked the EU–Ukraine relationship as “the tail wagging the dog,” saying Brussels still arms and funds Kyiv even as Ukraine blocks Russian oil deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline, RT reports. He warned that halting this transit route, on top of the Nord Stream sabotage, further undermines EU energy security, and called Western backing for the 2014 change of power in Kyiv a “systemic mistake” for which Europe is now “reaping what they have sown.” (RT, 03.08.26)

Monday, March 9, 2026

• The U.S. told its Group of Seven partners that Russia sanctions relief would be temporary as it reacts to spiking energy prices amid the war in Iran, the European Union’s economy chief said. The assurances came March 9 during a call of G-7 finance ministers, held shortly after the Trump administration granted India a waiver to buy Russian oil held at sea. The U.S. was “emphasizing” that the India decision was “very much contained both in terms of time and scope of the measures,” said EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis, who joined the call. (Bloomberg, 03.09.26)
• Putin said Russia is ready to boost oil and gas exports to “reliable partners” in the Asia-Pacific and Eastern Europe, explicitly naming Hungary and Slovakia, as Brent crude climbed above $100 amid the Iran war. He warned flows through the Strait of Hormuz could halt “within a month” and urged Europeans to “reorient” to Russian crude on a long-term basis “devoid of political pressures.” Analysts at Kpler say Gulf disruption could deepen India’s and China’s reliance on discounted Russian barrels. Putin told officials the oil shock “could help Russia to strengthen its position” by shifting exports to more “promising markets” and paying down domestic debts. (MT/AFP, 03.09.26, Financial Times, 03.09.26)
• Russia’s Sheskharis oil terminal at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk resumed loadings over weekend, bringing some relief to the global market amid the Middle East conflict. The tankers Psara I and Hanuman are currently moored at the first and second berths respectively, according to the ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 03.09.26)

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

• The New York Times reports that the Trump administration has begun loosening some sanctions on Russian oil to contain the Iran war–driven energy shock, starting with a 30‑day waiver allowing India to buy Russian crude already at sea. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “hundreds of millions of barrels” of sanctioned oil are on the water and that “unsanctioning” them could create additional supply, even as Senate Democrats warn the move hands Putin a “huge financial boost.” (New York Times, 03.10.26)
• Indian companies have bought up all Russian crude available on the spot market in less than a week after the United States granted New Delhi a temporary waiver to purchase the oil, Bloomberg reported March 10, citing people familiar with the deals. The purchases total about 30 million barrels, roughly equivalent to India’s monthly imports of Russian crude in February, which averaged just under 1.1 million barrels per day, according to the sources. (MT/AFP, 03.10.26)
• A U.S. waiver allowing India to buy Russian “on‑water” crude loaded before March 5 could free up only 20–30 million barrels for Indian refiners—about four days of India’s oil demand, Nomura estimates—offering “helpful, but not a game‑changer” relief as Brent briefly hit $119 a barrel. India imports 90% of its oil and gas and spent $100 billion on crude between April and January; shares of state refiners fell more than 4% on March 9, with Indian Oil down about 15% since the Iran war began. (Financial Times, 03.10.26)

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

• Axios reports that Russia has emerged as the chief economic winner from the Iran war, as its Urals crude — which normally trades at a discount to Brent under G7 sanctions — has surged to about $100.67 a barrel, up from the low‑to‑mid‑$70s before the conflict and at one point trading roughly $12 above Brent. The spike reflects a de facto loosening of enforcement on Russian oil sanctions as the U.S. and its allies scramble to replace lost Gulf supplies after Iran choked off the Strait of Hormuz, boosting Moscow’s revenues and leverage over oil‑importing states. European Council president António Costa told EU ambassadors that higher energy prices and diverted Western military focus mean “there is only one winner in this war: Russia.” (Axios, 03.11.26)
• Russia is reaping a major windfall from Trump’s war in Iran, with oil that was trading below $70 a barrel before the bombing now having spiked to nearly $120 and settling around $90, the New Yorker reports. Former Russian central-bank adviser Alexandra Prokopenko estimates that, if prices hold, Moscow could gain an extra $3.5 billion a month in oil revenue—roughly a third of the war’s estimated monthly cost in Ukraine—while its exports avoid the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck via the Bosphorus and pipelines. (The New Yorker, 03.11.26)
• Russian producers pumped an average of 9.184 million barrels a day of crude oil in February, according to the monthly OPEC report published March 11. That’s the lowest level since last August, estimates from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries show. The figure is 56,000 barrels a day below an already-reduced level in January. It’s also 390,000 barrels a day lower than what Russia was allowed to produce in February under an agreement with OPEC and its allies. (Bloomberg, 03.11.26)
• The New York Times reports that the Iran war has revived Russia’s role as a “must‑have” energy supplier just as its oil‑and‑gas revenues had fallen nearly 25% over the past year, forcing Moscow to tap its National Wealth Fund. European gas futures have risen more than 60% since the conflict began, and the EU still imported about 13% of its gas and 3% of its oil from Russia in 2025 (down from 45% and 27% in 2021), while U.S. benchmark crude has jumped over 35% in a week to around $91 a barrel. Putin is now openly threatening to cut remaining gas flows to Europe and redirect supplies to Asia—where Russia already covers much of the 17% of China’s oil imports previously coming from Iran and Venezuela—arguing that “other markets are opening up” as Western sanctions and Gulf disruptions collide. (New York Times, 03.11.26)
• The International Energy Agency has recommended what would be the largest release of strategic oil reserves in its history, exceeding the 182 million barrels tapped in 2022 after Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine, to offset supply disruptions from the Iran war. IEA members collectively hold about 1.2 billion barrels in emergency stocks; G7 finance ministers signaled support “in principle” for proactive use of these reserves as tankers avoid the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20 % of global oil and gas, and Brent crude briefly neared $120 a barrel this week. (Financial Times, 03.11.26)
• European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament that gas prices have risen 50% and oil 27% since the Iran war began, costing EU taxpayers an extra €3 billion in fossil fuel imports in just 10 days — “the price of our dependency.” She called returning to Russian fossil fuels a “strategic blunder” that would make Europe “more dependent, more vulnerable, and weaker,” and backed nuclear and renewables as “joint guarantors” of energy security. (Wall Street Journal, 03.11.26)

Thursday, March 12, 2026

• A new general license from the U.S. Treasury Department allows Russia to begin selling an estimated 128 million barrels of oil already loaded onto tankers that were previously restricted by U.S. sanctions. The authorization is temporary and will expire after 30 days unless renewed or replaced. (Washington Post, 03.12.26) 
• The Financial Times estimates Russia is earning up to $150mn a day in extra budget revenue from oil sales, making it the biggest economic winner from the Iran war. After the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, demand for Russian crude from India and China surged, giving Moscow a $1.3bn–$1.9bn tax windfall in the first 12 days and a projected $3.3bn–$4.9bn by end‑March if Urals averages $70–$80 a barrel instead of $52. Indian imports have risen about 50% to roughly 1.5–2mn b/d, with Urals now selling there at around $5 above Brent, reversing prior discounts and helping Russia plug a deep early‑2026 budget shortfall. (Financial Times, 03.12.26)
• In a joint statement, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa said “this is not the moment to relax sanctions on Russia,” stressing that enforcing the G7 oil price cap “will help stabilize markets and limit Russia’s revenues.” They welcomed the International Energy Agency’s move to release emergency oil reserves and said the immediate priority is to keep energy flows moving, “especially navigation through the Strait of Hormuz — critical for the global economy.” (Financial Times, 03.12.26)

Friday, March 13, 2026

• Oil prices hovered near their highest levels since 2022 despite the Trump administration’s move to temporarily allow delivery and sale of sanctioned seaborne Russian crude, a waiver meant to ease supply shocks from the war with Iran. A new Treasury license permits sales of Russian oil loaded as of March 12 through April 11. Brent crude fell 1.3% to just over $99 a barrel, while WTI dropped 2% to $93.70.  Urals crude climbed over $65 per barrel surpassing Russia’s $59 budget target dramatically. (CNN, 03.13.26, Guardian, 03.13.26, Investing.com,  03.13.26) 
• As the Strait of Hormuz crisis drives oil above $100 a barrel, Donald Trump’s G7 colleagues warned President Trump that Russia stands to be the main beneficiary, urging him not to let Moscow “exploit the war or receive sanctions relief,” Axios reports. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron all pressed that point on the G7 call. (Axios, 03.13.26)
  • German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called the U.S. decision to loosen some restrictions on Russian oil “wrong,” saying in Norway that easing sanctions “for whatever reason” would be a mistake and noting there is a price problem but “no shortage” of crude. “Let me be very clear: we believe it would be wrong to ease sanctions now, for whatever reason,” Merz said March 13 at a joint news conference with his Norwegian counterpart, Jonas Gahr Støre. (Bloomberg, 03.13.26, Meduza, 03.13.26).
• Russian crude oil and fuel on about 30 tankers in Asian waters is potentially available for purchase after the U.S. granted a temporary waiver to buy cargoes that were already at sea. The vessels are carrying at least 19 million barrels of Russian crude and 310,000 tons of refined products, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 03.13.26)
• WSJ reports that some 124 million barrels of Russian oil are currently at sea—equivalent to roughly 5–6 days of the flows that would normally pass through the now‑choked Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Treasury has said it will allow countries to buy this stranded Russian oil through April 11 to ease supply constraints and price pressure. (Wall Street Journal, 03.13.26)
• The Kremlin welcomed the U.S. move to relax sanctions on Russian oil already loaded on tankers, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying U.S. and Russian interests “situationally overlapped” and arguing that a looming “broader crisis” in global energy can only be averted if “significant volumes of Russian oil” reach the market; he said such steps would “somewhat help” stabilize prices but implied more access would be needed. (Financial Times, 03.13.26)
• Zelenskyy said the United States’ decision to ease sanctions on Russian oil could bring Moscow up to $10 billion in additional revenues, money he warned would be used to finance the war against Ukraine. He made the remarks at a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron. (RBC-Ukraine, 03.13.26)
• Sweden’s Coast Guard has detained another sanctioned tanker linked to Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Baltic Sea, the Sea Owl I, sailing under a false Comoros flag and reportedly bound from Brazil toward Primorsk. Officials say the vessel is on the EU sanctions list (since October 24, 2025), not in the Swedish ship register, and assessed as having a “high” safety‑violation risk, so it cannot be granted innocent passage; it has in recent years carried oil products between Russia and Brazil. (Meduza, 03.13.26) 
• Speaking in Paris, Zelenskyy condemned the U.S. decision to ease Russian oil sanctions, warning that “this one concession alone” could give Moscow “about $10bn for the war” and “does not help peace.” Emmanuel Macron said Russia would be “mistaken” to think the Iran conflict offers respite and insisted that rising oil prices must “under no circumstances” lead Europe to rethink its sanctions policy on Russia. (Financial Times, 03.13.26)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

Sunday, March 8, 2026

• A 60 Minutes investigation reports that U.S. undercover agents bought a miniaturized pulsed‑microwave weapon from a “complex Russian criminal network” in 2024 for about $15 million, and that its key components were made in Russia. Stanford researcher David Relman, who led two official panels, says “the large majority” of scientific work on such brain‑affecting microwave systems was done in the former Soviet Union, and the device’s capabilities match decades of Russian research into using tailored RF pulses to cause vertigo, seizures, memory loss and balance problems. (CBS News / 60 Minutes, 03.08.26) 
• A federal judge in Washington ruled that Kari Lake’s appointment to lead the U.S. Agency for Global Media, Voice of America’s parent, was invalid and voided the mass layoffs she ordered, potentially restoring more than 1,000 journalists and staff to their jobs. The decision is a major setback to President Trump’s effort to dismantle VOA, which before the cuts broadcast in 49 languages to an audience of over 360 million weekly listeners. (New York Times, 03.08.26)

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

• A second U.S. deportation charter flight carrying Russian nationals this year has departed, according to Dmitry Valuev of the rights group Russian America for Democracy in Russia, who said “about 10 Russians” are confirmed on board, with the total possibly higher. The plane left Alexandria, Louisiana, landed at Baltimore–Washington Airport, and is scheduled to continue to Tirana, Albania—an unusual route compared with earlier flights that stopped in Egypt before passengers were transferred to Moscow‑bound planes. (Verstka via Telegram, 03.10.26)

Thursday, March 12, 2026

• Putin’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev said he discussed the crisis in global energy markets at talks with U.S. officials in Florida. “Many countries, particularly the USA, are beginning to better understand the key, systemically important role of Russian oil and gas in ensuring the stability of the global economy, as well as the ineffectiveness and destructive nature of sanctions against Russia,” Dmitriev said March 12 in a post on Telegram. Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff said he met with Dmitriev in Florida. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, and White House senior advisor Josh Gruenbaum also took part in the talks with the Russian delegation, Witkoff said in a post on the X platform. (Bloomberg, 03.12.26)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

Sunday, March 8, 2026

• A leaked Kremlin video shows Putin suffering a 30‑second coughing fit while recording his International Women’s Day address, forcing a retake and briefly leaving the 73‑year‑old red‑faced and pointing to his throat, the Mirror reports. The clip, briefly posted then deleted, has reignited speculation about his health, which has ranged from Parkinson’s and cancer rumors (the latter publicly dismissed in 2022 by CIA Director William Burns as “too healthy”) to reports of limping, tremors and possible mini‑strokes. (Mirror, 03.08.26)

Monday, March 9, 2026

• FBK head Maria Pevchikh published excerpts from the Russian Health Ministry’s 2024 autopsy report on Alexei Navalny, saying the “sterile and scrubbed” document falsely portrays his death as from natural causes. She said the full 289‑page report, with graphic appendices, has been in FBK’s possession for 18 months and adds nothing substantive about the poisoning, arguing that publishing it for clicks would be unethical; the summary was released with Navalny’s family’s consent because supporters “want to know as much as possible.” (Meduza, 03.09.26)
• Close allies of the late opposition figure Alexei Navalny have expressed outrage over an investigative media outlet’s decision to publish his unredacted autopsy photos. (MT/AFP, 03.09.26)

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

• An iStories analysis finds that 19 of Russia’s 82 regions have budgeted cuts of at least 10% to healthcare spending in 2026—the highest number since the full‑scale invasion began and more than triple the five regions that planned such cuts for 2025. In total, regional health budgets are being reduced by about 107 billion rubles (roughly the amount earmarked nationally for drone development over three years); Vologda region slashed health outlays by 39%, Irkutsk and Kemerovo by over 30%, and Moscow and Volgograd regions by about 25%, with spending on primary‑care facilities, doctors’ pay rises, and new hospitals among the hardest hit. (iStories, 03.10.26)
• A new survey by Russia’s Public Opinion Foundation and the Higher School of Economics finds 31% of Russian small-business owners are considering closing or selling their businesses, up 8 percentage points from Q1 2025. Some 52% expect conditions to worsen in the first three months of 2026 (vs. 38% in early 2022), while only 12% foresee improvement, a series low. By late 2025, 39% said their firms were in “survival mode,” 39% reported falling revenues quarter‑on‑quarter, and 29% could not cover basic operating costs. (Meduza, 03.10.26)
• Russia’s state‑backed messaging app Max says it has reached 100 million registered users and a daily audience of 70 million, with 2.2 million public and private channels and over 1 billion messages plus 28 million calls sent each day. Since its launch in March 2025, users have sent 62 billion messages, made more than 3 billion calls, recorded 470 million “video circles,” and created 25.5 million group chats; independent outlet Agentstvo estimates roughly 70% of Max channels are run by government bodies. (Meduza, 03.10.26)
• Russia’s Supreme Court on March 10 dismissed an appeal by one of the former owners of Moscow’s Domodedovo International Airport challenging the nationalization of the airport. Russia’s Supreme Court said it estimates Domodedovo’s assets at more than 1 trillion rubles ($12.7 billion). (MT/AFP, 03.10.26)
• A new Russian Field poll asking which party is most likely to take second place in the September 2026 State Duma elections finds 29% of respondents naming the Communist Party (KPRF), 25% the LDPR, 9% A Just Russia, 7% New People, and 6% even predicting United Russia itself; 2% chose Yabloko, while 21% were unsure. (Russian Field, 03.10.26)

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

• Forbes’ 2026 global rich list now includes a record 155 Russian billionaires, up from just 88 at the start of the full‑scale war in 2022 and rising for the fourth year in a row. Severstal co‑owner Alexei Mordashov tops the Russian cohort with an estimated $37 billion (up from $28.6 billion), followed by Norilsk Nickel and T‑Bank co‑owner Vladimir Potanin at $29.7 billion and Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov at $29.5 billion; 14 Russians are new to the list this year. (Meduza, 03.11.26)
  • Wealthy Russians are increasingly setting up private foundations at home to protect and pass on their fortunes, taking advantage of the country’s drive to bring back money stashed overseas. The number of new foundations — financial vehicles akin to trusts used to manage assets for beneficiaries at arms length — surged more than 200% last year and now total more than 600, according to Moscow-based law firm FTL Advisers. (Bloomberg, 03.12.26)

Thursday, March 12, 2026

• Russia’s oil-export revenue shrank in February to the lowest since its invasion of Ukraine after Western sanctions curbed sales and forced deeper price discounts, while Kyiv continued attacks on oil infrastructure, the International Energy Agency said. The nation earned $9.5 billion from exporting crude oil and petroleum products last month, a $1.5 billion drop from January, the Paris-based agency said in its monthly market report on March 12. Total oil exports plunged by 850,000 barrels a day to 6.6 million barrels a day, also the lowest level since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, the IEA estimated. The drop in February followed deepening discounts on Russian crude as the U.S. increased pressure on Moscow, making it more difficult for nation’s producers to market their barrels. (Bloomberg, 03.12.26)
• Russia plans to scale back this year’s budget spending to rein in a widening deficit and avoid an increase in borrowing, even as surging oil prices boost revenue. The government is preparing a possible 10% cut in all “non-sensitive” spending for both federal and regional budgets, according to people familiar with the situation. The reductions will mainly affect outlays for economic and infrastructure projects, while defense, military and social expenditures won’t be reduced, they said. The cuts would begin after a formal decision is made, which may take time as it requires parliamentary approval, and wouldn’t affect spending already allocated this year. Reuters was the first to report the plans. (Bloomberg, 03.12.26)
• Wealthy Russians are increasingly setting up private foundations at home to protect and pass on their fortunes, taking advantage of the country’s drive to bring back money stashed overseas. The number of new foundations — financial vehicles akin to trusts used to manage assets for beneficiaries at arms length — surged more than 200% last year and now total more than 600, according to Moscow-based law firm FTL Advisers. They’ve been on the rise after changes around privacy and the ease of setting them up. Russia has long sought to encourage rich individuals and its diaspora to repatriate assets, with recent foundations legislation underscoring efforts to keep private capital within the country. Authorities have streamlined and improved rules around its foundations, as similar structures in the west became increasingly difficult to create because of sanctions after the invasion. (Bloomberg, 03.12.26)

Friday, March 13, 2026

• Income inequality in Russia has reached its highest level in more than a decade, according to independent research group Yesli Byt Tochnim, which reconstructed the Gini Index after statistics agency Rosstat deleted it from a January report. The index rose from 0.410 in 2024 to 0.419 in 2025, a 2.2% increase and the highest reading since 2012, nearing record levels seen in 2007–2010. (The Moscow Times, 03.13.26)
• Sales of offline communication gear and paper maps surged in Moscow as residents adapt to repeated mobile internet disruptions in Russia’s capital. Purchases of handheld radios rose 27% in the first days of March compared with early February, while sales of pagers used to stay in touch with clients and staff jumped 73%, according to data from Wildberries, one of Russia’s largest online retailers. Purchases of landline phones climbed by about a quarter over the same period, the company said. (Bloomberg, 03.13.26)
• Russian consumer electronics and appliance retailer M.Video named Vladislav Bakalchuk, the co-founder of Russia’s largest e-commerce platform Wildberries, as its new chief executive on March 13. (MT/AFP, 03.13.26)
• Russia’s Justice Ministry has designated Nina Khrushcheva, a U.S.-based scholar and great-granddaughter of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, as a “foreign agent,” according to an update published Friday. Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs at The New School in New York, has lived in the United States since 1991 and has been an outspoken critic of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, drawing denunciations from pro-war activists inside Russia. Her great-grandfather led the Soviet Union from 1953 to 1964 and is widely known for his 1956 “Secret Speech” denouncing Joseph Stalin’s crimes. (Meduza, 03.13.26)

Defense and aerospace:

• New SIPRI data show global major arms transfers rose 9.2% in 2021–2025 versus 2016–2020, while Russia was the only top exporter whose deliveries fell, plunging 64%. Moscow has dropped from second to third place with 6.8% of world exports; the U.S. leads with 42%, and France is second with 9.8%. Almost half (48%) of Russian exports went to India, its biggest customer, while Ukraine accounted for 9.7% of global imports, mainly from the U.S. (41%), Germany (14%) and Poland (9.4%). (Meduza, 03.09.26)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry has drafted a bill, cleared by a government commission for submission to the Duma, that would explicitly authorize the president to deploy troops abroad to “protect the rights of citizens of the Russian Federation” if they are arrested or prosecuted overseas, including on the basis of international court rulings. (iStories, 03.10.26)
• The number of young Russians opting to replace army service with alternative civil service reached a 14-year high in 2025, the exiled news outlet Vyorstka reported March 9. Vyorstka’s analysis of Russia’s Federal Labor and Employment Service (Rostrud) data showed that 3,212 Russians had chosen to perform alternative civil service by the end of 2025. Alternative civil service has increased 180% since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when 1,140 young people performed alternative civil service. Alternative service has continued gaining popularity in the years since, with 1,645 Russians opting for it by the end of 2023 and 2,439 by the end of 2024. Russian law allows those whose convictions or religious beliefs are incompatible with military service, as well as certain indigenous peoples, to perform alternative civil service for the benefit of society and the state. (MT/AFP, 03.09.26)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russian operative Denis Alimov was arrested at Bogotá’s El Dorado airport on February 24 on an Interpol Red Notice requested by U.S. prosecutors, who accuse him of plotting to kill or “legally deport” two Chechen dissidents in Europe for $1.5 million each. Alimov, 42, is a decorated veteran of the FSB’s Alfa special forces and a senior operative in Center 795, a new, ultra‑secret Russian assassination unit created in late 2022 after GRU Unit 29155 was exposed. Center 795 is embedded within the Kalashnikov arms concern, funded by billionaire Andrei Bokarev and backed by state conglomerate Rostec, giving powerful insiders a de facto private army reporting directly to Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov. The unit’s downfall began when Alimov and his Serbo‑Croatian–speaking asset used Google Translate, allowing the FBI—armed with a court order—to read their murder‑for‑hire communications in real time. (The Insider, 03.13.26)
• In a Kremlin meeting with Investigative Committee chief Alexander Bastrykin, Putin was briefed that the committee has sent nearly 1.5 million cases to court since 2011, recovered close to 1 trillion rubles in damages (including 561 billion in tax cases), and brought more than 1.5 million people to criminal liability. Bastrykin highlighted 2025 results: over 93,000 cases sent to court, 128 billion rubles compensated, 196.5 billion in assets seized, more than 14,200 corruption cases (including 617 officials with special status), and completion of investigations into the Crocus City Hall terror attack that killed 150 people. (Kremlin, 03.07.26)
• Former First Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan Tsalikov, a 30‑year ally of Sergey Shoigu, has been placed under house arrest on charges including leading a criminal organization, 12 counts of embezzlement and two of bribery; one fraud case alone allegedly caused more than 6 billion rubles (about $77 million) in damage. Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation previously tied Tsalikov’s family to 1.1 billion rubles in Moscow commercial real estate, while investigative outlet Proekt valued his Rublyovka mansion at 3 billion rubles in 2021. He is the fourth ex–deputy defense minister arrested since Shoigu’s 2024 ouster; only three of Shoigu’s deputies remain in post. (Meduza, 03.10.26) 

• Russia’s prison service is grappling with a deepening staffing shortage, with tens of thousands of positions unfilled last year, highlighting mounting personnel problems across the country’s law enforcement agencies as the war in Ukraine stretches into its fifth year. The Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN)’s staffing deficit exceeded 30.5% in 2025, Interfax cited Director Arkady Gostev as saying. Based on FSIN’s authorized workforce of about 234,100 employees, the shortfall amounts to roughly 71,400 staff. The deficit has widened sharply from 23% a year earlier, when the prison service was short about 54,000 employees. (MT/AFP, 03.12.26)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

Sunday, March 8, 2026

• Independent outlet Mediazona reports that Putin has signed a law banning the extradition of foreign citizens and stateless persons who have served under contract in Russia’s armed forces or other Russian military formations, effectively shielding foreign fighters in Ukraine from being handed over to their home countries. A companion bill that would bar deporting such individuals or denying them entry and migration documents has passed first reading and awaits a second. (Mediazona, 03.08.26)

Monday, March 9, 2026

• Investigative outlet VSquare reports, citing multiple European intelligence sources, that Russia has deployed a three‑member GRU team to its Budapest embassy under diplomatic cover to run a hybrid operation aimed at influencing Hungary’s April 12 elections in favor of Viktor Orbán’s Moscow‑aligned government. Analysts say the effort, overseen from Russia by Putin aide Sergey Kiriyenko and ex‑Rosatom Budapest chief Vadim Titov, may involve AI‑driven disinformation, cyber‑intrusions and covert financing targeting opposition leader Péter Magyar; the Russian embassy denies interference. (bne IntelliNews, 03.09.26) 

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

• Russia won its second gold medal at the Winter Paralympics on March 10 after vision-impaired skier Anastasia Bagiyan and her guide Sergei Sinyakin took first place in the women’s para cross-country sprint classic in Italy. (MT/AFP, 03.10.26)

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

• The Financial Times reports the Kremlin has approved a covert disinformation plan by the sanctioned Social Design Agency to help Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz win Hungary’s April 12 election, portraying him online as a “strong leader with global friends” and rival Péter Magyar as a “Brussels puppet.” The campaign, run via Hungarian influencers and overseen by Putin aide Sergei Kirienko and GRU officers in Budapest, is designed to look native while pushing anti‑Ukraine narratives and highlighting Orbán’s ties to Trump, even as Moscow publicly denies any interference. (Financial Times, 03.11.26)

Friday, March 13, 2026

• Russia’s Foreign Ministry has again urged Russian citizens to avoid traveling to Germany “without urgent necessity,” with spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accusing Berlin of “sophisticated discrimination” against Russians and Russian speakers. (Meduza, 03.13.26)

Ukraine:

Friday, March 6, 2026

• Ukraine is increasingly exporting its hard-won expertise against Shahed drones, ISW reports. The Telegraph says Britain has deployed Ukrainian‑trained British drone operators to defend bases in the Middle East, while Reuters reports the U.S. and Qatar are in talks to buy Ukrainian interceptor drones and associated electronic-warfare and acoustic “listening” tech. Ukraine has years of experience repelling large Shahed barrages and reportedly achieves about a 90 % interception rate using relatively cheap interceptors costing only a few thousand dollars each. (ISW, 03.06.26)

Saturday, March 7, 2026

• One of Ukraine’s biggest drone makers, TAF Industries, says three Gulf states have formally requested Ukrainian interceptor drones to counter Iranian Shahed attacks. Founder Oleksandr Yakovenko told the FT the UAE wants 5,000 drones, Qatar 2,000, and Kuwait is also interested, but integrating the systems and training pilots—which can take months—remain major obstacles. He said the war has convinced governments that Patriots alone are “not enough” and that dedicated interceptor fleets are now essential. (Financial Times, 03.07.26)
• Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó accused Ukraine of trying to meddle in Hungary’s April elections and colluding with the EU to block Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline, speaking at a pro‑government protest outside Ukraine’s embassy in Budapest. The rally coincided with Hungary’s detention of seven Ukrainian state-bank employees and seizure of two armored cars carrying about $80 million, moves Kyiv denounced as illegal hostage-taking amid an escalating feud over halted Russian oil flows. (Washington Post, 03.07.26)

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

• The Economist reports that Ukraine’s housing market has warped rather than collapsed under war: in Lviv, average sale prices have surged to about $1,720 per square meter—roughly 64% higher than before the invasion and now above Kyiv levels—driven by internal migration. In frontline cities like Kramatorsk, monthly rent for a modest bungalow can reach 60,000 hryvnias (about $1,370), more than the purchase price of the cheapest flats, while in Kharkiv one‑bedroom units now sell for about 3.5 times average annual wages, down from 5× a few years ago, making the battered city an “affordable investment hotspot.” (The Economist, 03.10.26)

Thursday, March 12, 2026

• Hungary returned two seized armored bank vehicles to Ukraine but withheld cash and gold worth about $82 million, citing a money laundering investigation that Kyiv has denounced as theft. Relations between the two countries, already strained by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s close ties to Russia, deteriorated further after Hungary detained seven Ukrainians transporting the assets. Kyiv accused Budapest of taking the bank employees hostage to pressure Ukraine into restarting suspended oil shipments, insisting the transfer was legitimate. The detained Ukrainians were expelled and crossed back into Ukraine on March 6. (Reuters, 03.12.26) 

Friday, March 13, 2026

• Ukrainian anti-corruption authorities will prosecute four members of a group accused of embezzling more than 15 million hryvnias through procurement of construction and repair materials for state rail company Ukrzaliznytsia. Investigators say that, from September 2022 to April 2023, the scheme’s organizer used loyal officials in the Production Support Center branch to ensure pre-arranged companies won tenders for paint and linoleum, cancelling competitions if “unauthorized” bidders appeared or prices were too low. Contracts were then signed at inflated prices, and the suspects allegedly appropriated the resulting losses. Similar attempts in early 2023 were thwarted by NABU and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office. (Korrespondent.net, 03.13.26)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

• Kazakhstan plans to increase the recycling fee for vehicles imported from Russia after officials in Moscow followed through with a scheduled hike to Russia’s own recycling duty that was introduced to support domestic automanufacturing. (MT/AFP, 03.10.26)

Friday, March 13, 2026

• The International Criminal Court has opened a formal investigation into Belarusian authorities for alleged crimes against humanity, specifically politically motivated deportations as part of a post‑2020 state campaign against civilians. (Meduza, 03.13.26) 

IV. Quotable and notable

• In that scenario [oil at $200 a barrel], sustained higher oil prices could plunge the world into a recession, raise borrowing costs, alter the outcome of ongoing wars, and shift the balance of global-power competition in favor of Russia and China. “We would be entering a completely different world,” Meghan O’Sullivan, the director of the Geopolitics of Energy Project at Harvard Kennedy School and director of the Belfer Center, said. The fact that so many countries would be desperate for oil would also give Putin added leverage in negotiations over the outcome of that war, O’Sullivan said. (The Atlantic, 03.13.26)

Endnotes

1. Oil prices hovered near their highest levels since 2022 despite the Trump administration’s move to temporarily allow delivery and sale of sanctioned seaborne Russian crude, a waiver meant to ease supply shocks from the war with Iran. A new Treasury license permits sales of Russian oil loaded as of March 12 through April 11. Brent crude fell 1.3% to just over $99 a barrel, while WTI dropped 2% to $93.70. Urals crude climbed over $65 per barrel, surpassing Russia’s $59 budget target dramatically. (CNN, 03.13.26, Guardian, 03.13.26, Investing.com,  03.13.26) 
2. At least 20 countries are now militarily involved in Trump’s 10‑day‑old Iran war, making it the most globalized conflict since the Cold War. Iran has struck at least 10 countries, effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz through which about 20% of the world’s oil normally flows and helped displace more than 500,000 people in Lebanon in a week as Israel fights Hezbollah on the ground. (Axios, 03.10.26) 
3. ISW reports that a U.S. delegation including special envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and Josh Gruenbaum met Russian Direct Investment Fund chief and lead negotiator Kirill Dmitriev in Miami on March 11. Witkoff said they discussed “a variety of topics” and agreed to continue contacts, but neither side has issued a detailed readout. (ISW, 03.12.26)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

AI was used in production of this digest.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo: FILE - 'Nimbus SPB', an oil products tanker, floats in the Finnish Gulf past the Lakhta Center skyscraper, the headquarters of Russian gas monopoly Gazprom in St. Petersburg, Russia, on June 11, 2023. (AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky, File)