7 Things to Know

1. Russia has carried out one of its largest strikes on Ukraine, with 81 missiles and 8 drones fired at 10 of Ukraine's 27 regions on March 9. Among the missiles that were reportedly fired were 28 Kh-101 and Kh-555 air-launched cruise missiles, 20 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles, 13 S-300 surface-to-air missiles, eight Kh-31P, six Kh-59 guided missiles, six Kh-47 Kinzhal missiles and six Kh-22 missiles. The Ukrainian military said it managed to shoot down at least 34 of the missiles and four of the drones fired, while lacking the means to shoot down Russia’s hypersonic missiles, such as the Kh-47s and Kh-22s. The strikes killed at least five in the Lviv region alone, hit three thermal plants and temporarily disrupted electricity supplies to the Zaporizhzhia NPP, forcing its operators to temporarily switch to diesel generators to ensure its reactors function safely, according to the Ukrainian authorities.
2. Russian forces have gradually closed in on the Donetsk region town of Bakhmut from the north, south and east, leaving only a narrow supply route in from the west for Ukraine’s troops. The Russian attackers have also taken control of Dubovo-Vasylivka in the Bakhmut area, according to a March 9 update by Ukrainian OSINT Telegram channel, DeepState.Ua. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said a Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut would not mean Russia had “changed the tide of this fight,” but Volodymyr Zelensky called for continued defense of the town as its capture would provide Russian attackers with an “open road” to the Donetsk region’s Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Nevertheless, Russian forces will not be able to take all of the Donetsk region in 2023 as they continue to face issues of attrition, personnel shortages and morale challenges, according to the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community presented in the Senate this week.
3. Biden’s FY2024 budget request includes $6 billion in support for Ukraine. In addition, the budget requests $753 million for Ukraine to continue to counter Russian malign influence and to meet emerging needs related to security, energy, cybersecurity, disinformation, macroeconomic stabilization and civil society resilience. Biden's national security request includes an additional $7 billion for military support for Ukraine and $23.6 billion for the Energy Department as part of the modernization of nuclear weapons. The request, if implemented, would allocate for $842 billion for the Pentagon in FY2024, which is $26 billion more than in FY2023.
4. Turkey has stopped the transit of sanctioned goods to Russia this month as the European Union and the U.S. pressure allies to support measures imposed over Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The government ordered a halt to transit of such goods via Turkey from March 1 in compliance with sanctions, a senior Turkish official was quoted by Bloomberg as saying. At least 13 Turkish firms exported a total of at least $18.5 million worth of items, including plastics, rubber items and vehicles, to at least 10 Russian companies sanctioned by the U.S. for their role in Russia’s assault on Ukraine, according to WSJ. Turkey’s overall exports to Russia rose to $9.3 billion in 2022 from $5.8 billion a year earlier.
5. Vladimir Putin warmly congratulated Xi Jinping on his on March 10 appointment to a third term as China's president, but appeared cool toward Xi’s peace plan for Ukraine. "Dear friend, please accept sincere congratulations on the occasion of your reelection," Putin wrote to Xi, who has been rumored to be planning to visit his Russian counterpart on March 21. While celebrating the continuation of Xi’s rule, Putin signaled a lack of enthusiasm with regard to China’s 12-point peace plan for Ukraine through his spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Commenting on the plan this week, Peskov said that "we are very attentive to the proposals our colleagues in Beijing come up with,” but at the same time  “there are no prerequisites for transition to peace in this situation.” Despite global backlash over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China will maintain its diplomatic, defense, economic and technology cooperation with Russia to continue trying to challenge the U.S.,  according to the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.
6. New intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials suggests that a pro-Ukrainian group carried out the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines last year, according to NYT. Die Zeit and ARD reported that investigators had found that the sport sailing boat suspected of being used to conduct an attack was rented by a Poland-based company with Ukrainian owners. The seaborne operation, was allegedly carried out by a six-strong group—a captain, two divers, two diving assistants and a doctor. The group, some members of which reportedly presented Ukrainian passports as identification, set off in the boat from the north German town of Rostock on Sept. 6, 20 days before the explosions.
7. The Levada Center’s latest polls show that a solid majority of Russians continue to have a dim view of Ukraine, as well as the U.S. and EU, which back Kyiv in its defensive war with Russia. The share of Russians with a negative attitude toward the U.S. stayed at 73% in November-February, according to the Levada Center. The same period saw the share of Russians with a negative attitude toward the EU increase from 68% to 69%. The same share of Russians (69%) harbored negative attitudes toward Ukraine in February. In contrast, as many as 85% of Russians had a positive view of China in February, while the share of Russians with a negative attitude toward China stayed at 6% in November-February.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Russian nuclear material security remains a concern, despite improvements to material protection, control and accounting at Russia’s nuclear sites since the 1990s, according to the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, dated Feb. 6. (DNI, 03.08.23)
• Europe's largest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia, had to rely on emergency diesel generators to provide power essential to safety functions after it temporarily lost all off-site power on March 9 following missile strikes on Ukraine, with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warning that action is needed or "one day our luck will run out.” The IAEA last week warned that the situation at ZNPP was ''precarious.'' (WNN, 03.09.23, FT, 03.09.23, NYT, 03.08.23, RM, 03.09.23, Guardian, 03.09.23)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea continues to import a variety of dual-use goods in violation of U.N. sanctions, primarily from China and Russia, according to the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. (DNI, 03.08.23)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• The United States and Europe's top powers on March 8 expressed alarm at Iran having produced a small amount of uranium enriched to 84 % purity—close to weapons grade—and said Iran must explain how it happened. (Reuters, 03.09.23)
• Iran's concessions to U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi during his visit to Tehran depend largely on future negotiations, Grossi conceded, walking back some earlier comments. IAEA and Iran said they had agreed to make progress on various issues, including a long-stalled IAEA inquiry into uranium particles found at three undeclared sites in Iran. Grossi told reporters on March 4 they had agreed to reinstall all extra monitoring equipment but said on March 6 that "we will have to discuss ... this, how do we do it," conceding this and other issues would hinge on future technical talks. (Reuters, 03.06.23)
• Chances of restoring the JCPOA remain and Russia is determined to continue negotiations to complete the work as soon as possible, Russia’s permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, said at a meeting of the IAEA’s board of governors. (TASS, 03.08.23)
• Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina is preparing to visit Tehran soon, according to Iranian diplomats. Nabiullina’s visit is likely to focus on integrating Russia and Iran’s bank payment systems, which have been shut out of the global economy by Western sanctions, according to a former Russian central bank official. (FT, 03.06.23)
• Russia has hesitated to buy ballistic missiles from Iran, according to assessments by Western officials. One significant factor, according to assessments in NATO countries, has been the threat of the U.S. providing Kyiv with the long-sought ATACMS missile system, whose 300 kilometer range could reach deep into Russian-held territory. (FT, 03.06.23)
• Iran has supplied large quantities of bullets, rockets and mortar shells to Russia for use in Ukraine, Sky News reported March 8, citing a security source. (MT/AFP, 03.08.23)
• Russia has been capturing some of the U.S. and NATO-provided weapons and equipment left on the battlefield in Ukraine and sending them to Iran, where the U.S. believes Tehran will try to reverse-engineer the systems, four sources familiar with the matter told CNN. (CNN, 03.10.23)
• The U.S. Defense Secretary has warned of “unthinkable” military ties developing between Russia and Iran, as he sought to reassure regional allies that Washington remained committed to the Middle East “for the long haul.” (FT, 03.06.23)
• Iran will continue to threaten U.S. interests as it tries to erode U.S. influence in the Middle East, entrench its influence and project power in neighboring states and minimize threats to the regime, according to the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. (DNI, 03.08.23)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Thousands of people in Ukraine have sustained complex injuries linked to the war and need rehabilitation services and equipment to help them, a senior WHO official said March 7. (Reuters, 03.07.23)
• Kyiv said March 7 it had secured the release of 130 Ukrainian troops, including four women, in its latest prisoner swap with Russia. The Russian Defense Ministry said 90 of its troops captured by the Ukrainian armed forces were released in the swap. (Current Time, 03.08.23)
• Ukraine's foreign minister on March 6 urged the International Criminal Court to probe footage circulating on social media that he said showed Russian forces killing a Ukrainian prisoner of war. (MT/AFP, 03.07.23, RFE/RL, 03.06.23)
• U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland made an unannounced visit to Ukraine along with top prosecutors from several European nations to discuss criminal investigations regarding Russia’s actions during the war. Garland said the U.S. had opened investigations into war crimes “that may violate U.S. law.” (Bloomberg, 03.03.23)

• The Pentagon is blocking the Biden administration from sharing evidence with the International Criminal Court in The Hague gathered by American intelligence agencies about Russian atrocities in Ukraine. American military leaders oppose helping the court investigate Russians because they fear setting a precedent that might help pave the way for it to prosecute Americans. (NYT, 03.09.23)
• A Sky News investigation has found details of dozens of race hate crimes against Russian nationals in Britain since Feb. 24, 2022, the date Russia began its invasion of Ukraine. Greater Manchester Police said 13 race hate crimes against Russian victims had been recorded since the invasion of Ukraine—up from six in 2021 and two in 2020. (Sky News, 03.03.23)
• The governor of Russia's Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine, says anti-aircraft forces there downed three missiles on March 6. Vyacheslav Gladkov added that one person was injured by debris as it fell to the ground. (Current Time, 03.06.23)
• Speaking in Kyiv on March 8, where he met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, U.N. chief Antonio Guterres said: "The position of the United Nations, which I have consistently expressed, is crystal clear: Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a violation of the U.N. Charter and international law." (WP, 03.09.23)
• While in Kyiv, Guterres stressed the importance of renewing the key Black Sea grain deal, with the current accord set to expire on March 18. (Bloomberg, 03.08.23)
  • Russia and the United Nations were to hold talks in Geneva on March 6 on renewing the Ukraine grain export deal. (MT/AFP, 03.09.23)
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that extending the deal was becoming "complicated" as he claimed it was not being properly implemented. (MT/AFP, 03.09.23)
  • Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on March 5 that Ankara is working hard to extend the deal. (Reuters, 03.05.23)
• Much of Ukraine's sunflower-seed oil exports remain curtailed by the war, but farmers are sending out the raw seeds instead. In January, Ukraine exported 347,000 tons of sunflower-seed oil, down sharply from the 612,000 tons exported in January 2022 before the war, according to data from Black Sea agricultural consulting firm SovEcon. (WSJ, 03.07.23)
• EU trade ministers back a proposal to extend trade benefits to Ukraine for another year, Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said. (Bloomberg, 03.10.23)

Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Russia has carried out one of its largest strikes on Ukraine, with 81 missiles and 8 drones fired at 10 of Ukraine's 27 regions on March 9. Among the missiles that were reportedly fired were 28 Kh-101 and Kh-555 air-launched cruise missiles, 20 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles, 13 S-300 surface-to-air missiles, eight Kh-31P, six Kh-59 guided missiles, six Kh-47 Kinzhal missiles and six Kh-22 missiles. The Ukrainian military said it managed to shoot down at least 34 of the missiles and four of the drones fired, while lacking the means to shoot down Russia’s hypersonic missiles, such as the Kh-47s and Kh-22s. The strikes killed at least five in the Lviv region, hit three thermal plants and temporarily disrupted electricity supplies to the Zaporozhzhia NPP. (Bloomberg, 03.09.23, FT, 03.09.23, WSJ, 03.09.23, FT, 03.10.23, RM, 03.10.23)
  • The Patriot is the most advanced medium-range air defense system the West can offer—but it has not been tested against Kinzhals. A similar system, the Samp-T, promised by France and Italy, is also yet to arrive. (FT, 03.10.23)
• Russian attackers have gradually closed in on Bakhmut from the north, south and east, leaving only a narrow supply route in from the west for Ukraine’s troops. Russia's Wagner paramilitary group proclaimed control of the eastern district of Bakhmut on March 9. The Russian forces took control of Dubovo-Vasylivka in the Bakhmut area, according to a March 9 update by Ukrainian OSINT Telegram channel, DeepState.Ua. That Dubovo-Vasylivka, which is located northwest of Bakhmut has been captured by Russian forces also follows from Russia’s pro-war Pozyvnoy Brus Telegram channel’s March 10 update. On March 10, Russian forces were pushing to expand their control of territory to the north and south of Bakhmut. (FT, 03.09.23, WSJ, 03.09.23, WSJ, 03.10.23)
  • Zelensky on March 6 discussed the situation in Bakhmut with Valeriy Zaluzhniy, the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and Oleksandr Syrskiy, the commander of the ground forces, where "they spoke in favor of continuing the defensive operation and further strengthening our positions in Bakhmut," according to the president's website, as its capture would provide Russian attackers with an “open road” to the Donetsk region’s Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. (RFE/RL, 03.06.23, NYT, 03.09.23, FT, 03.09.23)
  • U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said a Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut would not mean that had “changed the tide of this fight.” “If the Ukrainians decide to reposition [to the west of Bakhmut] I would not view that as an operational or strategic setback,” he said. (FT, 03.06.23)
  • Bakhmut may fall to Russia “in the coming days,” the secretary-general of NATO has said, stressing that this would not mark a shift in the war. (FT, 03.08.23)
  • Russia has lost approximately five soldiers for every Ukrainian soldier killed in the battle for Bakhmut, according to NATO. (MT/AFP, 03.07.23)
• In the past month, Russian forces have gained 20 square miles in Ukraine, according to the March 8 Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force, 03.08.23)
• Eastern Ukraine may be the site of the heaviest recent fighting in the war. But the southern region of Zaporizhzhia, while appearing relatively calm, is just as dangerous, because it could be the site of the war’s next big battle, according to Col. Roman Kostenko, a member of Ukraine’s Parliament who is serving in the country’s military. (NYT, 03.07.23)
• According to Lithuanian intelligence services, Russia is capable of continuing its war in Ukraine for two more years. (dpa, 03.09.23)
• The Russian military has and will continue to face issues of attrition, personnel shortages and morale challenges that have left its forces vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks, according to the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. The full effects of Russian partial mobilization will only begin to be felt into the spring and summer. Although Russian forces continue to concentrate on the Donbas, they probably will not be able to take all of it in 2023, according to the assessment. (DNI, 03.08.23)
  • Russia lacks the ammunition and troops to make major territorial gains in Ukraine this year and could shift to a hold-and-defend strategy, dragging out the war, the top American intelligence official Avril Haines, said while presenting the 2023 assessment in the Senate. “They may fully shift to holding and defending territories they occupy. In short we do not foresee the Russian military recovering enough this year to make major territorial gains.” Putin would need to find outside suppliers of ammunition and impose a mandatory national mobilization if Russia is to advance in its year-old invasion, Haines told the Senate Intelligence Committee. (NYT, 03.08.23, Bloomberg, 03.08.23)
• Biden’s FY2024 budget request includes $6 billion in support for Ukraine. In addition, the budget requests $753 million for Ukraine to continue to counter Russian malign influence and to meet emerging needs related to security, energy, cybersecurity, disinformation, macroeconomic stabilization and civil society resilience. Biden's national security request includes an additional $7 billion for military support for Ukraine and $23.6 billion for the Energy Department as part of the modernization of nuclear weapons. The request, if implemented, would allocate for $842 billion for the Pentagon in FY2024, which is $26 billion more than in FY2023. (RM, 03.10.23)
  • The Ukraine military aid package, which the White House and lame-duck Democratic majority pushed through last year as they anticipated trouble from the GOP-controlled House, would run out by mid-July at the current rate, according to CSIS. (NYT, 03.01.23)
• House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on March 8 declined an invitation to visit Ukraine from Zelensky, who, in an interview with CNN, suggested that a trip to Kyiv might challenge the House leader’s “assumptions” about military aid. “I will continue to get my briefings and others, but I don’t have to go to Ukraine or Kyiv to see it,” McCarthy told CNN. “And my point has always been, I won’t provide a blank check for anything.” (NYT, 03.09.23)
• Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, Donald Trump’s most formidable potential challenger for the 2024 GOP nomination, sought to match Trump, criticizing what he called the “open-ended blank check” for Ukraine and saying “I don’t think it’s in our interest” to be involved in the fight for territory seized by Russia. (NYT, 03.01.23)
• Overall, American public support for Ukraine aid has fallen from 60% last May to 48% now, according to surveys by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. While 50% of those surveyed by Fox News said American support should continue for “as long as it takes to win,” 46% said the time frame should be limited. (NYT, 03.01.23)
• Two Ukrainian pilots are being assessed in the U.S. on how they operate jet fighters to prepare for a potential broader training effort, defense officials said. (WSJ, 03.05.23)
• Ukraine has appealed to the EU to send Kyiv 250,000 artillery shells a month to ease a critical shortage that it warns is limiting its progress on the battlefield. (FT, 03.03.23)
• Under a plan drawn up by foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, EU states would get financial incentives worth 1 billion euros ($1.06 billion) to send more of their artillery rounds to Kyiv while another 1 billion euros would fund the joint procurement of new shells. Borrell said after a meeting of EU defense ministers in Stockholm that the plan could be finalized on March 20. (Reuters, 03.08.23)
• Poland will send 10 more German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine this week, the Polish defense minister said March 7. (Reuters, 03.07.23)
• Arms manufacturer Rheinmetall is holding "promising" talks to build a tank factory in Ukraine. (AFP, 03.04.23)
• Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins spoke out in favor of supplying fighter jets to Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 03.05.23)
• The head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group Yevgeniy Prigozhin said on March 9 that he’d been cut off from all government communication channels following his recent public plea to the Defense Ministry to supply his fighters in Ukraine with urgently needed ammunition. (MT/AFP, 03.09.23)
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has visited the war-battered city of Mariupol in southern Ukraine to oversee reconstruction efforts. (MT/AFP, 03.06.23)
• The war in Ukraine has apparently created a surge in demand for inflatable fake armaments that can be deployed as decoys. (AP, 03.06.23)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Turkey has stopped the transit of sanctioned goods to Russia this month as the European Union and the U.S. pressure allies to support measures imposed over Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The government ordered a halt to transit of such goods via Turkey from March 1 in compliance with sanctions, a senior Turkish official was quoted by Bloomberg as saying. At least 13 Turkish firms exported a total of at least $18.5 million worth of items, including plastics, rubber items and vehicles, to at least 10 Russian companies sanctioned by the U.S. for their role in Russia’s assault on Ukraine, according to WSJ. Turkey’s overall exports to Russia rose to $9.3 billion in 2022 from $5.8 billion a year earlier. (Bloomberg, 03.10.23, WSJ, 02.03.23)
• Russian imports in general have largely returned to their pre-war 2020 levels and analysis of trade data suggests that advanced chips and integrated circuits made in the EU and other allied nations are being shipped to Russia through third countries such as Turkey, the UAE and Kazakhstan. (Bloomberg, 03.04.23)
  • In some cases, the exports to Russia of technologies that could be used for military purposes in Ukraine have gone from effectively zero to millions of dollars. Kazakhstan provides a key example. In 2022 the Central Asian nation exported $3.7 million worth of advanced semiconductors to Russia, up from a mere $12,000 worth the year before the war started. (Bloomberg, 03.04.23)
• The EU has placed sanctions on nine people, including two Russian commanders involved in the war in Ukraine, and three organizations the bloc holds responsible for sexual violence and other violations of women's rights. (Reuters, 03.07.23)
• The EU is struggling to find and freeze the assets of sanctioned Russian billionaires, with the total figure increasing only modestly in recent months. The bloc has so far frozen €20.9 billion ($22 billion) in assets. (Bloomberg, 03.09.23)
  • Germany has frozen 5.25 billion euros ($5.57 billion) in assets belonging to sanctioned oligarchs since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to the German Finance Ministry. The figure was 4.28 billion euros six months ago. (Reuters, 03.04.23)
• Concert cellist Sergei Roldugin, linked to Putin, moved millions of francs through Swiss bank accounts without any proper checks, Swiss prosecutors alleged at the opening of a trial of four bankers accused of helping him. (Reuters, 03.08.23)
• Prigozhin’s mother won a European Union court appeal against her inclusion on the bloc’s sanctions list following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 03.08.23)
• Russian billionaires Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven are primed to offload their stakes in Alfa-Bank in a $2.3 billion sale of Russia’s largest private lender, as they seek to free themselves from Western sanctions. The oligarchs’ longtime business partner Andrei Kosogov, who has not been targeted by sanctions, has agreed to buy the Russian bank. (FT, 03.10.23)
  • Leonid Volkov, chairman of the board of Alexei Navalny’s foundation, said he made a “big political mistake” by writing to EU foreign policy chief Borrell in October requesting sanctions relief for the Alfa Group partners. (Bloomberg, 03.09.23)
• The U.K. government suspects Russian nationals have exploited lax checks by the companies register in attempts to launder war profits stolen from Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter. British law enforcement agencies have identified large numbers of sham companies incorporated in the U.K. by nationals from a range of countries in recent years, likely for the purposes of money laundering or tax evasion, the people said. Hundreds of those firms list Russians as their officers and some Russian-controlled companies are now trying to exploit the war in Ukraine for financial gain, the people said. (Bloomberg, 03.09.23)
• A federal court in New York said on March 8 that it had ordered the seizure of a Boeing jet owned by Russia’s state-controlled oil company Rosneft that it suspected of being in violation of sanctions. (NYT, 03.09.23)
• Canada on March 10 banned the import of all Russian aluminum and steel products in a move that Ottawa said was aimed at denying Moscow the ability to fund its war against Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 03.10.23)
• Leading global tire-producing company Continental says it is planning a "controlled withdrawal" from the Russian market and is in "advanced" talks on selling its plant just outside Moscow. (RFE/RL, 03.09.23)
• Citigroup has warned clients about the risks of Russia weaponizing its exports of materials such as aluminum, palladium and nuclear fuels, potentially leading to price rises for these critical commodities. (Bloomberg, 03.09.23)
• For more than a year, Western nations have used sanctions to target connected Russian businessmen in the hope they would pressure Putin to end the war in Ukraine. But now, a team of researchers at Dartmouth College says those efforts, while cathartic, were largely ineffective. Instead, the researchers say in a new study, Western governments should focus on going after the experts—the lawyers, accountants and bankers—who manage the oligarchs' offshore wealth. (WP, 03.08.23)
• According to the decree signed by Putin last week, transactions with government ruble bonds, depository receipts and eurobonds that were purchased after March 1 last year from investors in unfriendly countries and registered with Russian custodians, will now require approval from the central bank or a special government commission. Previously, only investors from nations deemed hostile to Russia since the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine needed the permit. (Bloomberg, 03.10.23)
• Russia has imposed sanctions on 144 citizens of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania—three EU and NATO member states that have been among the strongest backers of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 03.09.23)
• The Russian Prosecutor-General's Office announced on March 6 its designation of one of the world's leading anti-corruption nonprofits, German-based Transparency International, as an "undesirable organization." (RFE/RL, 03.06.23)

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• Commenting on China's peace plan for Ukraine, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that "we are very attentive to the proposals our colleagues in Beijing come up with,” but at the same time  “there are no prerequisites for transition to peace in this situation.” (TASS, 03.07.23, AA.com.tr, 03.08.23)
• Beijing calls for dialogue and de-escalation in the Ukrainian conflict zone, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said on March 7. "This is a critical moment in terms of the crisis situation in Ukraine, [when the choice is] between restoring the peace process by finding a political solution and escalating the crisis situation by adding fuel to the fire," Qin Gang stressed.  (TASS, 03.07.23)
• “Look, we're ready to go to the end. You told us you'll be with us to the end—so let's go to the end," Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelensky, said in an interview. Podolyak said proposed security guarantees tied to a NATO partnership are a dangerous idea, since they would leave Ukrainian territory in Russian hands and embolden both Russia and its allies. (WSJ, 03.10.23)
• “To my view, it is necessary that Putin understands that he will not succeed with his invasion and his imperialistic aggression and that he has to withdraw troops. This is the basis for talks,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in an interview that aired March 5. Scholz has earlier said that Germany and its partners were working on providing security guarantees that could help achieve a just peace on Ukraine's terms. "Such security guarantees imperatively presuppose that Ukraine can defend itself successfully in this war," he said. (Politico, 03.05.23, WSJ, 03.04.23)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Russia probably will continue to maintain its global military, intelligence, security, commercial and energy footprint, although possibly in a reduced role, and build partnerships aimed at undermining U.S. influence and boosting its own, according to the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. (DNI, 03.08.23)
• NATO Security-General Jens Stoltenberg on March 7 said he saw some "progress" in Sweden and Finland's stalled bids to join, ahead of talks with Turkey set to restart this week. (AFP, 03.07.23)
• A parliamentary delegation from Hungary has said it supports Sweden’s NATO membership bid after meeting the speaker of the Swedish parliament to iron out what Hungary’s governing party has called “political disputes.” (AP, 03.07.23. Reuters, 03.08.23)
• A decision on the permanent deployment of a German brigade to Lithuania will be "up to NATO," German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on March 7 in response to calls by Vilnius for a larger NATO presence in the country. (Reuters, 03.07.23)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Putin on March 10 congratulated Xi Jinping on his appointment to a third term as China's president. "Dear friend, please accept sincere congratulations on the occasion of your reelection," Putin said in a statement released by the Kremlin. "Russia highly values your personal contribution toward the strengthening of ties ... and strategic cooperation between our nations." (MT/AFP, 03.10.23)
  • “Western countries led by the United States have implemented all-around containment, encirclement and suppression of China, which has brought unprecedented severe challenges to our country’s development,” Xi said in a speech on March 6, according to China’s official news agency. The Chinese Foreign Ministry is unable to confirm information that Xi will visit Russia on March 21, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said. The Kremlin was also earlier unable to comment on posts circulating on social networks that say a meeting between Putin and Xi in Russia was planned for March 21. (WSJ, 03.09.23, TASS, 03.08.23, NYT, 03.07.23)  
    • Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines offered downbeat appraisal of a speech by Xi in which he said China is grappling with “comprehensive containment and suppression by Western countries.” “Xi’s speech was the most public and direct criticism that we’ve seen from him,” Haines said. She said it “reflects growing pessimism in Beijing about China’s relationship” with the U.S. and worries about its economic development. (Bloomberg, 03.08.23)
• “It’s not our assessment that China wants to go to war,” Haines told the House Intelligence Committee as part of an annual briefing on worldwide threats faced by the U.S. CIA Director William Burns testified at the same hearing that Xi has been “sobered” by U.S. and allied support for Ukraine in response to Russia’s invasion a year ago. (Bloomberg, 03.10.23)
• The more unstable the world becomes, the more imperative it is for China and Russia to steadily advance their relations, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said March 7. With China and Russia working together, the world will have the driving force toward multipolarity and greater democracy in international relations, and global strategic balance and stability will be better ensured, he said. (Xinhua, 03.07.23)
• Qin denied allegations that Beijing is considering sending weapons to Russia and criticized U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan. “Why on the one hand demand China not provide weapons to Russia, but on the other hand sell weapons to Taiwan in long-term violation of [joint communiqués]?” Qin blamed an “invisible hand”—the United States, in other words—for escalating the conflict in Ukraine. “On what basis is this talk of blame, sanctions and threats against China? This is absolutely unacceptable.” “If the United States does not hit the brakes, but continues to speed down the wrong path, no amount of guardrails can prevent derailing and there will surely be conflict and confrontation,” Qin said. (NYT, 03.07.23, FT, 03.07.23, Bloomberg, 03.08.23)
  • The European Union has seen "no evidence so far" that would suggest China was considering supplying weapons to Russia for the war in Ukraine, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on March 5. (dpa, 03.05.23)
  • It would be an absolute "red line" if China provided weapons to Russia, a senior European Union official, who was not identified, said on March 3, adding that the EU would respond with sanctions. (Reuters, 03.04.23)
• The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on five Chinese companies, and one person, accused of supplying aerospace components to an Iranian maker of drones sold to Russia and used in attacks on oil tankers. (Bloomberg, 03.10.23)
• Despite global backlash over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China will maintain its diplomatic, defense, economic and technology cooperation with Russia to continue trying to challenge the United States, even as it will limit public support, according to the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. (DNI, 03.08.23)
  • China and Russia will maintain their strategic ties driven by their shared threat perceptions of the United States, which create potential threats in areas such as security collaboration, specifically arms sales and joint exercises, and diplomacy, where each country has used its veto power on the U.N. Security Council against U.S. interests, according to the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. (DNI, 03.08.23)
• The share of Russians with a positive attitude toward China decreased from 87% in November to 85% in February, according to the Levada Center. The same period saw the share of Russians with a negative attitude toward China stay at 6%. (RM, 03.10.23)

Missile defense:

• Moscow continues to develop long-range nuclear-capable missile and underwater delivery systems meant to penetrate or bypass U.S. missile defenses, according to the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. (DNI, 03.08.23)

Nuclear arms:

• Russia probably does not want a direct military conflict with U.S. and NATO forces, but there is potential for that to occur, according to the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Russian leaders thus far have avoided taking actions that would broaden the Ukraine conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders, but the risk for escalation remains significant, according to the assessment. (DNI, 03.08.23)
• Russia maintains the largest and most capable nuclear weapons stockpile, and it continues to expand and modernize its nuclear weapons capabilities, according to the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. (DNI, 03.08.23)
• Throughout its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has continued to show that it views its nuclear capabilities as necessary for maintaining deterrence and achieving its goals in a potential conflict against the United States and NATO, and it sees its nuclear weapons arsenal as the ultimate guarantor of the Russian Federation, according to the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. (DNI, 03.08.23)
• While presenting ATA-2023, Haines called Putin’s “nuclear saber-rattling” an attempt to “deter the West from providing additional support to Ukraine.” “He probably will still remain confident that Russia can eventually militarily defeat Ukraine and wants to prevent Western support from tipping the balance and forcing a conflict with NATO,” she said. (CNN, 03.10.23)
• Russia said on March 10 that it was still in contact with the United States over New START. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said he had no expectations for significant progress from contacts between Moscow and Washington over the treaty. (Reuters, 03.10.23)

Counterterrorism:

• U.S. persons and interests at home and abroad will face a persistent and increasingly diverse threat from terrorism during the next year. Individuals and cells adhering to ideologies espoused by ISIS, al-Qaida or the transnational Racially or Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremists (RMVE) movement pose a significant terrorist threat to U.S. persons, facilities and interests, according to the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. A prolonged conflict in Ukraine could provide foreign RMVEs with opportunities to gain access to battlefield experience and weapons, according to the assessment. (DNI, 03.08.23) The DNI's 2023 assessment appears to have no language on the threat of WMD terrorism, while the 2022 assessment at least referred to the threat of use of chemical and biological agents.

Conflict in Syria:

• On March 4, Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, made his first visit to Syria in that role, traveling to Kurdish-controlled territory to assess the state of America's military mission. America still has more than 900 troops, and hundreds more contractors, in Syria, working with Kurdish fighters to make sure there is no resurgence of the Islamic State, which was ostensibly defeated as a caliphate in 2019, after five years of wreaking havoc across Iraq and Syria. (NYT, 03.05.23)

Cyber security:

• What began with a bang stalled into something less substantial—a persistent deluge of digital attacks by Russia against Ukraine, yet nothing near the full-blown cyber-hostilities that many predicted. Cybersecurity officials familiar with the conflict say a primary reason is that Ukraine was ready for it—and had considerable help from technology companies based in the U.S. and elsewhere to bolster its cyber defenses. (Bloomberg, 03.09.23)
• German police on March 6 said they disrupted an international cybercrime gang that has been blackmailing large companies and institutions since at least 2010, raking in millions of euros. Duesseldorf police said they identified 11 individuals linked to the group. Three suspects beyond the reach of European law enforcement couldn't be apprehended, identified as Russian citizens Igor Turashev and Irinia Zemlyanikina, and Igor Garshin, whose nationality was unknown. (AP, 03.06.23)

Energy exports from CIS:

• New intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials suggests that a pro-Ukrainian group carried out the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines last year. Officials who have reviewed the intelligence said they believed the saboteurs were most likely Ukrainian or Russian nationals, or some combination of the two. U.S. officials said no American or British nationals were involved. U.S. officials said that they had no evidence Zelensky or his top lieutenants were involved. (NYT, 03.07.23)
  • The explosives were most likely planted with the help of experienced divers who did not appear to be working for military or intelligence services, U.S. officials who have reviewed the new intelligence said. According to a European lawmaker more than 1,000 pounds of “military grade” explosives were used by the perpetrators. (NYT, 03.07.23)
  • Die Zeit and ARD reported on March 7 that investigators had found that the sport sailing boat suspected of being used to conduct an attack was rented by a Poland-based company with Ukrainian owners. The seaborne operation, it said, was carried out by a six-strong group—a captain, two divers, two diving assistants and a doctor. The group, some members of which presented Ukrainian passports as identification, set off in the boat from the north German town of Rostock on the Baltic coast on Sept. 6, 20 days before the explosions. The boat was later located on the Danish island of Christiansø. (FT, 03.08.23, WSJ, 03.10.23)
  • German authorities said they searched a vessel that may have transported explosives used in the attack. Investigators are probing traces and items found in the search of a vessel from Jan. 18 to 20. The boat was returned to its owner in an uncleaned state, and investigators found traces of explosives in the cabin. Germans working for the company that leased the ship are not under investigation, it said. (Bloomberg, 03.09.23, FT, 03.08.23)

  • Ukraine has denied any involvement in September's attack on the Nord Stream pipelines, which were built to carry Russian natural gas to Germany.  Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, said Ukraine "was absolutely not involved". (BBC, 03.08.23)

  • Any suggestion of Ukrainian involvement could undermine pro-Ukrainian sentiment, particularly in Germany, which was highly dependent on Russian gas before the war. (NYT, 03.09.23)
• Offer levels for Russia’s Urals and ESPO crude, as well as fuel oil, surged over the past weeks. Increased interest from Chinese state-owned and large private refiners in addition to a jump in Indian demand, led cargoes to be snapped up at higher prices, they said. Offers for ESPO was close to $6.50 to $7 a barrel below ICE Brent on a delivered basis to China, while flagship Urals shipped from western ports was around $10 under the same benchmark, said traders. That’s an increase of as much as $2 from last month, marking one of the steepest jumps since sanctions were imposed on Dec. 5. (Bloomberg, 03.09.23)
• Millions of barrels of Russian diesel are being temporarily stored on oil tankers as the country deals with the fallout of European Union sanctions.  Ships have been idling off the coasts of Europe, Africa and Latin America in what is by far the biggest buildup in floating storage of diesel-type fuel from Russia since the start of data collection in 2016, according to Kpler Pte. Ltd. (Bloomberg, 03.10.23)
• A large amount of Russian oil continues to be transferred between tankers just a few miles off the coast of Spain—just a few weeks after authorities there wrote to local firms reminding them the activity is prohibited. (Bloomberg, 03.06.23)
• Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said he spoke in Moscow with his Russian counterpart about “the importance of deep coordination between the Kingdom and Russia in the energy markets” and expressed his country’s “unflinching commitment” to the OPEC+ agreement. The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting is in early June. (Bloomberg, 03.09.23)
• The European Union plans to expand its capacity to receive liquefied natural gas by almost a third by next year as it presses ahead with replacing pipeline supplies from Russia. The bloc will increase the number of LNG import terminals to 35 from 27. (Bloomberg, 03.09.23)
• The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said Russia has gone from being "one of the cornerstones of the global energy system" to forfeiting its leading role as a gas, oil and coal exporter. Birol told the French publication Liberation in an interview published on March 4 that "Russia has lost the energy battle." (RFE/RL, 03.05.23)
• Despite the exodus of almost every Western oil company, Russia can maintain crude production longer than many expect, according to S&P Global Vice Chairman Dan Yergin. Russia’s ability to develop liquefied natural gas, on the other hand, will peak sooner due to technological constraints, he said. (Bloomberg, 03.08.23)
• The collapse of Russian natural gas flows to Europe has given U.S. fuel exports pivotal new importance in the global economy, Torbjörn Törnqvist, chief executive of Gunvor, has said, signaling a permanent change in the structure of global energy markets. (FT, 03.06.23)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Lavrov described a rare recent meeting with his American counterpart on the sidelines of a G-20 meeting in New Delhi as constructive and “absolutely civilized,” but said he did not currently see an opening to re-engage in peace talks with Ukraine to end Moscow’s yearlong war. “This once again shows how low we have all fallen in our multilateral diplomacy, if a natural meeting on the sidelines, of which there were hundreds, is now considered as a kind of reason for guessing whether this is a breakthrough or not,” Lavrov said. (NYT, 03.10.23)
• The share of Russians who have a positive attitude toward the U.S. declined from 18% in November to 14% in February, according to the Levada Center. The same period saw the share of Russians with a negative attitude toward the U.S. stay at 73%. (RM, 03.10.23)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• In February 2023 services’ recovery continued as the seasonally adjusted S&P Global Russia Services PMI Business Activity Index registered 53.1, up notably from 48.7 in January, and above the 50.0 no-change mark, signaling a solid increase in output across the Russian service sector. (BNE, 03.04.23)
• Russia's Sberbank on March 9 announced its net profit dropped nearly 80% in 2022 to $3.56 billion. (MT/AFP, 03.09.23)
• The share of those who’d like to leave Russia to become permanent residents in other countries decreased in 2013-2023 from 22% to 11%, according to Levada. The share of those who would not want to relocate grew from 69% to 88% in the same period. The share of Russians who have a negative attitude toward their compatriots who have relocated from Russia totaled 25% in February 2023, according to Levada. The share of those who either approved or showed understanding for relocation was 14% that month. (RM, 03.07.23)
• There is real potential for Russia’s military failures in the war to Putin’s domestic standing and thereby trigger additional escalatory actions by Russia in an effort to win back public support, according to the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. (DNI, 03.08.23)
• Human rights watchdog Freedom House said in its annual report on freedoms around the world, released on March 9, that the number of countries to score zero for freedom of expression rose on the year to 33 from 14, with media freedom coming under pressure in at least 157 countries and territories during 2022. The report singled out Putin's "authoritarian regime" for launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 "in a bid to scuttle that country’s hard-won democratic progress." (RFE/RL, 03.09.23)
• Moscow's Timiryazev district court on March 6 sentenced Dmitry Ivanov, the administrator of the Protesting MGU (Moscow State University) Telegram channel, to 8 1/2 years in prison on a charge of discrediting Russia's armed forces. Amnesty International has recognized Ivanov as a prisoner of conscience. (RFE/RL, 03.07.23, RFE/RL, 03.08.23)
• A court in the Siberian region of Kemerovo has sentenced a former correspondent for RFE/RL's Siberia.Realities project Andrei Novashov to eight months of correctional work over social media posts he published saying Russian forces attacked civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 03.06.23) 
• The Moscow City Court has extended the pretrial detention of opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza to August despite a physician's request to release him immediately due to an illness described as polyneuropathy. (RFE/RL, 03.06.23)
• Russia on March 10 added the World Wildlife Fund to its register of foreign agents, along with Russian economist Sergei Guriev, a professor at Sciences Po; Gennady Gudkov, a former lawmaker turned opposition figure; and feminist blogger Nika Vodvud. (AP, 03.10.23)
• Russian authorities have seized the assets of Pyotr Kanayev, the chief editor of the leading business daily RBC, over a delayed payment of a fine for violation of Russia’s foreign agent law, the publication confirmed March 9. (MT/AFP, 03.09.23)
• Balkars in Russia's North Caucasus region of Kabardino-Balkaria are marking the 79th anniversary of their mass deportation to Central Asia by Soviet leader Josef Stalin. (RFE/RL, 03.08.23)
• More than 1,000 people gathered on Moscow's Red Square on March 5 for the 70th anniversary of the death of Soviet dictator Josef Stalin (AFP, 03.05.23)
• Russian officials and employees of state-owned companies are increasingly being told to surrender their passports to members of the security services to ensure they cannot flee the country, a joint investigation by independent media outlets Current Time and Radio Liberty has concluded. (MT, 03.10.23)

Defense and aerospace:

• Moscow’s military forces have suffered losses during the Ukraine conflict that will require years of rebuilding and leave them less capable of posing a conventional military threat to European security and operating as assertively in Eurasia and on the global stage. Moscow will become even more reliant on nuclear, cyber and space capabilities as it deals with the extensive damage to Russia’s ground forces, according to the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. (DNI, 03.08.23)
• Russia will remain a key space competitor, but it may have difficulty achieving its long-term space goals because of the effects of additional international sanctions and export controls following its invasion of Ukraine, a myriad of domestic space-sector problems and increasingly strained competition for program resources within Russia, according to the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. (DNI, 03.08.23)
• The head of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, announced the opening of Wagner recruitment centers in dozens of cities across Russia on March 10. (MT/AFP, 03.10.23)

See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The FSB said on March 6 that it prevented the assassination of businessman Konstantin Malofeyev, an active supporter of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. According to the FSB, the media tycoon's assassination was a main goal of a group of Ukrainian saboteurs. Kyiv has denied any involvement. (RFE/RL, 03.06.23)
• The Russian security services have detained 19-year-old political activist Oleg Filatchev on suspicion of involvement in the sabotage of railway lines. (MT/AFP, 03.08.23)
• The Moscow City Court sentenced political scientist Demuri Voronin to 13 years and three months in prison on a high treason charge on March 9. The Russian-German national was arrested in Moscow in 2021, hours before he was due to depart to Berlin. The case materials have been classified but Voronin has been mentioned in a high treason case against journalist Ivan Safronov. (RFE/RL, 03.09.23)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Payments for exports using what the Bank of Russia calls “toxic” currencies, primarily U.S. dollars and euros, accounted for 48% of the total at the end of 2022, down from 87% at the start of the year. The yuan’s share increased to 16%—from about 0.5%—and the ruble made up 34%, or almost triple its level earlier, a report by the central bank showed on March 9. (Bloomberg, 03.10.23)
• For countries with Russian-made nuclear reactors, reliance runs deep. In five European Union countries, every reactor—18 in total—was built by Russia. In addition, two more are scheduled to start operating soon in Slovakia, and two are under construction in Hungary, cementing partnerships with Rosatom far into the future. (NYT, 03.10.23)
• Hungary may need to re-think its cozy relationship with Russia in the future due to shifting geopolitical realities in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said. “I understand the need to rebuild Russian-European relations after the war but that’s far from realistic,” Orban said. “That’s why Hungary’s foreign and economic policy need to think hard about what sort of relations we can establish and maintain with Russia in the next 10 to 15 years.” (Bloomberg, 03.09.23)
  • David Pressman, U.S. ambassador to Hungary said Orban has reached a crossroads and that the “time is now” for him to pivot away from Russia and shore up the country’s relations with its Western allies. (Bloomberg, 03.10.23)
• To loud applause by an audience of academics, diplomats and business executives in India, Lavrov emphasized what he called a "double standard" in questions directed to him about the war in Ukraine, especially when contrasted with the United States' own military interventions in past decades. However, his assertion that Moscow was the victim, not the aggressor, in the conflict only elicited a collective eye roll from the audience. "The war was launched against U.S. using the Ukrainian people," he said to audible groans. (WP, 03.04.23)
• More than 22,000 Russians have entered Argentina since the start of last year, although around 60% of those have already left, according to Argentina’s immigration ministry. (Bloomberg, 03.08.23)
• The share of Russians with a positive attitude toward the EU declined from 21% in November to 18% in February, according to the Levada Center. The same period saw the share of Russians with a negative attitude toward the EU increase from 68% to 69%. (RM, 03.10.23)

Ukraine:

• The president of the European Parliament has called for Ukraine to start negotiations on membership in the European Union as early as this year. Tensions are a growing between Europe's desire to maintain its tough requirements and Ukraine's demand for quick entry into a promised land that has given hope to the embattled country. European Union officials like Ursula von der Leyen have been slow-walking expectations for Ukraine, a country that nearly all agree is fundamentally unprepared to join. (NYT, 03.04.23, RFE/RL, 03.04.23)
• One of four high-ranking SBU officers that Zelensky fired is deputy director in charge of logistics Provorotov. The decree doesn't state the reason for the ouster, but it comes shortly after deputy head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry for logistics Shapovalov lost his post over alleged embezzlement. (RM, 03.08.23)
• The Ukrainian government has named a new director of the country's National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU): Semen Kryvonos. (RFE/RL, 03.06.23)
• A small canal at the mouth of the Danube River has become a geopolitical flashpoint between Ukraine and Romania, sparking fears of Russian meddling and dwindling support in Bucharest for its war-torn neighbor. The dispute erupted when Kyiv said last month that it had dredged the Bystre canal—a Ukrainian waterway about 10 kilometers long that connects the Black Sea with the Danube’s Chilia branch, which forms a natural border between the two countries. (FT, 03.09.23)   
• The share of Russians with a positive attitude toward Ukraine declined from 20% in November to 17% in February, according to the Levada Center. The same period saw the share of Russians with a negative attitude toward Ukraine decrease from 70% to 69%. (RM, 03.10.23)
• Belgian lawmakers have recognized the Holodomor—the 1932-33 famine caused by the policies of the Soviet government in Ukraine—as a genocide. (RFE/RL, 03.10.23)
• Ukrainian officials on March 10 ordered a historically Russian-aligned Ukrainian Orthodox Church to leave 980-year-old Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra monastery complex in Kyiv where it is based. (Reuters, 03.10.23)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• In a dramatic turn of events, Georgian lawmakers have voted to drop a controversial "foreign agents" bill just days after its first reading sparked massive protests over fears the legislation that mirrored a similar law in Russia would have severely restricted dissent and the activity of civil society groups in the Caucasus nation and push it toward authoritarianism. (RFE/RL, 03.10.23)
  • Moscow on March 10 accused the West of fomenting days of mass protests in Georgia, likening them to an attempted coup designed to sow tension on Russia's borders. (MT/AFP, 03.10.23)
• Five security personnel were killed in an apparent shootout between ethnic Armenian police in Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijani soldiers in the breakaway region, authorities on both sides said. (RFE/RL, 03.05.23)
• Estonia’s prime minister Kaja Kallas has won a resounding victory in parliamentary elections, a triumph for one of the EU and NATO’s most pro-Ukraine voices. (FT, 03.06.23)
• Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko is expected to discuss economic ties and the regional situation with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi during a March 12-13 visit to Tehran, according to the Belarusian leader’s press service. (Bloomberg, 03.10.23)
• Lukashenko says a Ukrainian-Russian national and associates have been arrested for organizing a drone attack on a Russian military cargo plane at an airbase near Minsk in late February. (RFE/RL, 03.07.23)
• Lukashenko signed a law on March 9 allowing for the use of the death penalty against officials and army servicemen convicted of high treason. (Reuters, 03.09.23)
• The Belarusian Prosecutor-General's Office is working on a bill that would allow the prosecution of dead persons. The office's press service said on March 9 that the goal of the new legislation is to bring to justice Nazi criminals who avoided prosecution for crimes committed on the Belarusian territory during World War II. (RFE/RL, 03.09.23)
• A court in Minsk has sentenced exiled opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya and four other leading opposition figures in absentia to lengthy prison terms on charges that are widely considered to be politically motivated. (RFE/RL, 03.06.23)
• U.S. intelligence doesn’t see an imminent military threat to Moldova but does believe Russia is seeking to weaken the Moldovan government by fomenting demonstrations and even a manufactured insurrection, the White House said March 10. (Bloomberg, 03.10.23)
• Moldova has cast doubt on an allegation by the de facto authorities of Transdniester that they had foiled a Ukraine-orchestrated "terrorist" plot to kill the separatist region's leaders, while Kyiv called it "a Kremlin provocation." (RFE/RL, 03.09.23)
• Uzbek lawmakers have agreed to hold a referendum on a new constitution that would allow President Shavkat Mirziyoev to run for a third term in office. (RFE/RL, 03.10.23)
• In the post–Soviet states, Moscow is less capable of intervening in Belarus, Central Asia and the South Caucasus than it was in 2020 in Belarus and in 2022 in Kazakhstan––in both cases to prevent expressions of popular dissatisfaction with the government from leading to regime change, according to the 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Russia’s deployment of much of its ground forces and associated security personnel to Ukraine this past year probably has reduced the likelihood of Russian military intervention in other post–Soviet states, according to the assessment. (DNI, 03.08.23)

 

IV. Quotable and notable

• Zhou Bo, a former colonel in the People’s Liberation Army, wrote: “If Beijing takes Moscow’s side in the conflict, then we are already in the dawn of the third world war.” (FT, 03.06.23) 
• Peter Frankopan, professor of global history at Oxford University, wrote: “In its most blunt terms, the [Russian-Ukrainian] war has served as a moment of one of the greatest transfers of wealth in history, with energy-rich states harvesting giant cash bonuses that, in turn, have further accelerated the changing of the world order.” (The Spectator, 03.04.23)