This Week’s Highlights

• Asked if he thought Russian President Vladimir Putin was a killer, U.S. President Joe Biden told ABC: "Mmm hmm, I do," RFE/RL reports. Biden also said he had come to know Putin "relatively well" over the years and that he doesn't believe Putin has a soul. Russia summoned its envoy to the United States, Anatoly Antonov, back to Moscow for consultations after Biden’s remarks, according to the New York Times, while Putin invited Biden to hold a "live-broadcast" or "online" discussion in the coming days. A White House spokesperson seemingly turned down the invitation, saying Biden is “quite busy,” Fox News reports.
• U.S. intelligence has concluded that Putin authorized “influence operations” aimed at supporting Donald Trump’s bid for re-election in the 2020 presidential campaign, the Financial Times reports. The assessment from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence found that the Kremlin stopped short of backing the kinds of hacking missions carried out in 2016, which included attempts to break into “election infrastructure.” Biden says Putin will soon "pay a price" for trying to meddle in the election, according to RFE/RL, while the Kremlin has refuted the findings of the DNI assessment but said Russia is readying for new sanctions over the issues.
• “I will not hide the fact that in Syria, at the operational and tactical level, we have very close contacts with our American colleagues,” Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was quoted as saying by the Russian Defense Ministry’s Red Star daily on March 19. Russia’s military diplomats also continue to cooperate with the U.S. as part of an intergovernmental commission to commemorate those missing, according to one of Shoigu’s subordinates, TASS reports.
• At a March 18 conference in Moscow, the U.S., Russia, China and Pakistan called on the Afghan government and the Taliban to reduce violence and begin discussions on sharing power, the Wall Street Journal reports. The meeting saw senior the Afghan government and the Taliban agree to try to accelerate talks aimed at ending decades of war in the country, according to RFE/RL, and U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad's presence at the conference was seen as a sign of Washington's increasing effort to attract support among regional powers for its plans for Afghanistan.
• The United States remained the top exporter of arms in 2016-2020, accounting for 37 percent of global arms transfers, according to SIPRI. Russia, the world's second-largest exporter, accounted for one-fifth of global arms deliveries, but its sales declined by 22 percent compared to the 2011-2015 period, mainly due to a sizeable drop in imports by India, SIPRI said. Despite the drop India remained the top buyer of Russian arms in 2016-2020, accounting for 23 percent, while China was second with 18 percent, according to SIPRI and BOFIT.
• A poll by the Levada Center has revealed that only 29 percent of Russians consider Russia a European country, while 64 percent think Russia is not an European country. The share of those who believe that Russia is a European country has dropped by almost half since 2008. The poll has also revealed that the share of Russians who believe the West fears Russia has declined from 25 percent in 2018 to 18 percent in 2021. The share of those who think the West is alarmed by Russia has remained stable at 25 percent ,while the share of those who think Western countries respect Russia declined from 18 percent in 2018 to 12 percent in 2021, according to Levada. 

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea did not trade a single item with Russia in Jan. 2021, according to new data from Russia’s Federal Customs Service. (NK News, 03.16.21)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• About 10 Russian companies and organizations found themselves under American sanctions for cooperation with Iran, Dmitry Kiku, Deputy Head of the Department for Control over External Restrictions of the Finance Ministry, stated during a discussion at the Valdai Club. (TASS, 03.16.21)
• Iran has begun enriching uranium at its underground Natanz plant using a cascade of advanced centrifuges. The use of the advanced centrifuges is the latest violation of the nuclear accord, which only allows slower first-generation IR-1 centrifuges for enrichment. (RFE/RL, 03.17.21)

Great Power rivalry/New Cold War/saber rattling:

• Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger said March 18 that China and Russia will pose the greatest threats to the United States for the foreseeable future. Berger said that while other military and security threats are far from inconsequential, they do not rise to the level of Beijing and Moscow. (The Hill, 03.18.21)
• British Prime Minister Boris Johnson came under heavy criticism after he announced a 40 percent increase in the U.K.’s stockpile of nuclear warheads, as part of a plan to define a post-Brexit “Global Britain.” Johnson’s defense and foreign policy review said the decision to raise the cap from 180 warheads to 260 was “in recognition of the evolving security environment,” identifying Russia as Britain’s “most acute threat.” (Financial Times, 03.16.21)
  • "We are very sorry that the U.K. has chosen this path of increasing nuclear warheads. This decision harms international stability and strategic security," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. (AFP, 03.17.21)
• Bulgarian prosecutors on March 19 said six people had been arrested on suspicion of spying for Russia, including several defense ministry officials. The officials are accused of passing classified information to the head of the alleged spy ring, an ex-intelligence officer. His wife, who has joint Russian-Bulgarian nationality, "played the role of intermediary between (the ex-officer) and the embassy of the Russian Federation," prosecution spokeswoman Siyka Mileva said. (AFP, 03.19.21)
• Russia has deployed all six of its Black Sea Fleet submarines as NATO drills kicked off in the area, RIA Novosti reported March 19. The deployment took place as 18 NATO warships with 10 aircraft and 2,400 troops are set to begin Romanian-led multinational exercises dubbed “Sea Shield 21.” (The Moscow Times, 03.19.21)
• A poll by the Levada Center has revealed that only 29 percent of Russians consider Russia a European country, while 64 percent think Russia is not an European country. Back in 2019, these indicators were 37 percent and 55 percent, respectively. On the whole, since 2008, the number of those who believe that Russia is a European country has dropped by almost half, from 52 percent to 29 percent. The number of those who think otherwise has grown in about the same proportion, from 36 percent to 64 percent, according to Levada. The poll has also revealed that the share of Russians who believe the West fears Russia has declined from 25 percent in 2018 to 18 percent in 2021. The share of those who think the West is alarmed by Russia has remained stable at 25 percent, while those who think Western countries respect Russia declined from 18 percent in 2018 to 12 percent in 2021, according to Levada. (Russia Matters, 03.19.21)

NATO-Russia relations:

• Russia’s military diplomats continue to cooperate with the U.S. as part of an intergovernmental commission to commemorate those missing and dead during the years of conflict between the two countries, Alexander Novikov, head of the first department of the Russian Defense Ministry’s Main International Military Cooperation Directorate said. (TASS, 03.14.21)
• Russian media March 12 reported that Russia is ready for negotiations with Turkey on the possible delivery of Su-35 and Su-57 fighter aircraft. (Defense Blog, 03.13.21)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• In an interview, U.S. President Joe Biden noted it was possible to "walk and chew gum at the same time for places where it's in our mutual interest to work together." One area where Russia and the United States could cooperate would be the renewal of the New START nuclear agreement, Biden said. (RFE/RL, 03.17.21)
• When commenting on the arms control aspect of U.S.-Russian relations, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told the Defense Ministry’s Red Star daily: “You know, the first steps are encouraging. They are encouraging because such rapid progress toward the extension of the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty (New START). Of course, everyone sighed with a relief. It is now clear that, after all, they have moved from unrealizable demands and proposals to a completely normal and constructive dialogue.” (Russia Matters, 03.19.21)

Counter-terrorism:

• A new intelligence assessment delivered to Congress on March 17 by the Biden administration warned about the rising threat of militias and white supremacists. Domestic extremism ''poses the most lethal and persistent terrorism-related threat to the homeland today,'' Alejandro Mayorkas, the homeland security secretary, said. (New York Times, 03.18.21)

Conflict in Syria:

• Three nongovernmental organizations based in France, Syria and Russia have announced a legal case in Moscow against the Wagner group, a Russian military contractor in Syria. They said that the brother of a Syrian citizen who was "tortured, killed and had his corpse mutilated by six individuals in 2017 in Homs Governorate" filed the criminal complaint before Russia's Investigative Committee on March 11. The man has identified as Mohammad al-Abdullah. Rights groups say Abdullah defected from the Syrian army but had no known connection to the Islamic State. (New York Times, 03.15.21, RFE/RL, 03.15.21)
• Manaf Tlass, a former brigadier general in the Syrian Republican Guard and a member of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's inner circle, has made an unusual visit to Moscow, media outlets identified with the Syrian opposition reported March 17. Tlass is viewed as having the support of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Ergodan and could theoretically author a cease-fire agreement that would be supported by the Turkey-backed militias that control northern Syria. (Israel Hayom, 03.10.21)
• The situation in Lebanon, Syria and the Middle East was in focus during Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s meeting with visiting Hezbollah parliamentary faction leader Mohammad Raad. (TASS, 03.15.21)
• “I will not hide the fact that in Syria, at the operational and tactical level, we have very close contacts with our American colleagues. …We have contacts at the level of our, by civil name, managers in the airspace and in the conduct of work in the air to combat terrorism several times a day,” Shoigu was quoted as saying by the Red Star daily March 19. (Russia Matters, 03.19.21)

Cyber security:

• The sophisticated hacks pulled off by Russia and China against a broad array of government and industrial targets in the United States—and the failure of the intelligence agencies to detect them—are driving the Biden administration and Congress to rethink how the nation should protect itself from growing cyberthreats. Briefing reporters on March 12 about the progress of the investigations, senior administration officials said the White House had no plans to urge Congress to rewrite the laws that prevent American intelligence agencies from operating inside America’s borders. One senior adviser to Biden said, however, that a new structure was needed, one that combined traditional intelligence collection with the talents of private-sector firms. (New York Times, 03.14.21)
• A month ago, the Senate Intelligence Committee grilled the CEO of SolarWinds alongside the chief executives of three other government contractors. This time, it's the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee's turn to query federal agencies in charge of monitoring and guarding against hacking and other cyber threats. (The Washington Post, 03.18.21)
• A Russian citizen who was arrested in the United States last summer has pleaded guilty to conspiracy to introduce malware into the computer network of automaker Tesla. The U.S. Justice Department said March 18 that Yegor Kryuchkov pleaded guilty in federal court "for conspiring to travel to the United States to recruit an employee of a Nevada company into a scheme to introduce malicious software into the company’s computer network." (RFE/RL, 03.19.21)
• Ukraine's State Security Service said March 16 it had prevented a large-scale cyberattack by Russian hackers targeting classified government data. (RFE/RL, 03.16.21)

Elections interference:

• U.S. intelligence has concluded Russia’s President Vladimir Putin authorized “influence operations” aimed at supporting Donald Trump’s bid for re-election in the 2020 presidential campaign. The assessment from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence found that the Kremlin stopped short of backing the kinds of hacking missions carried out in 2016, which included attempts to break into “election infrastructure.” Instead, Putin focused on disinformation campaigns aimed at undermining Biden’s candidacy and American confidence in the election process. The report said that while both Russia and Iran carried out influence campaigns to manipulate voter intentions, neither interfered with the results or tampered with election infrastructure. The report also reiterates earlier findings that one of Russia's goals was to try to persuade U.S. politicians that it was Ukraine, not Russia, that meddled in 2016. The assessment concluded with “high confidence” that China had considered but decided against efforts to alter the outcome of the election. (Financial Times, 03.17.21, RFE/RL, 03.17.21)
  • Biden says Putin will soon "pay a price" for trying to meddle in last November's presidential election. When asked by interviewer George Stephanopoulas what the consequences will be, Biden replied: "You'll see shortly." (RFE/RL, 03.17.21)
  • The Kremlin has denied a U.S. report saying Putin authorized misinformation operations to try to influence last year’s presidential election but said Russia is readying for new sanctions over the issues. Calling the allegations “absolutely unfounded,” Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said March 17 that Russia “did not interfere” in the election and “was not involved in campaigns against any of the candidates." (RFE/RL, 03.17.21)

Energy exports from CIS:

• The United States has called for "any entity involved" in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project between Russia and Germany to disengage "immediately" or face U.S. sanctions. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged those entities to pull out of construction on the project, saying March 18 that Biden's administration was "committed to complying" with the law passed in 2019 and extended in 2020 by the U.S. Congress that provides for sanctions. (RFE/RL, 03.19.21)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Asked if he thought Putin was a killer, Biden told ABC: "Mmm hmm, I do." Biden also said he had come to know Putin "relatively well" over the years and that he doesn't believe Putin has a soul. At a later press conference, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said that Biden is “not going to hold back in his direct communications, nor is he going to hold back publicly. And we have still found ways to work together on areas where we have mutual interests.” (RFE/RL, 03.18.21, RFE/RL, 03.17.21, The White House, 03.18.21)
  • Russia said March 17 that it had summoned its envoy to the United States, Anatoly Antonov, back to Moscow for consultations on its ties with Washington but stressed it wanted to prevent an "irreversible deterioration" in relations. Moscow last summoned its envoy in the U.S. in 1998 over a Western bombing campaign in Iraq. (RFE/RL, 03.17.21, AFP, 03.17.21)
  •  “When we judge other people or evaluate other states, nations, we always seem to look in the mirror, we always see ourselves there. We always see our essence in the other person,” Putin said when asked about Biden’s comments at a live televised meeting March 18. “What would I say to Biden? I would wish him good health, I say that without irony or joking,” he added. Speaking on the sidelines of an event marking seven years since Russia's annexation of Crimea, Putin invited Biden to hold a "live-broadcast" or "online" discussion in the coming days. He said it would be an "open direct discussion" that would be "interesting" for the people of Russia and the U.S. (AFP, 03.19.21, RFE/RL, 03.18.21, The Moscow Times, 03.18.21, The Washington Post, 03.18.21)
  • During the White House press briefing March 18, press secretary Jen Psaki was asked about Putin’s request for an open debate. "I don’t have anything to report to you in terms of a future meeting," Psaki said. "The president will, of course, be in Georgia tomorrow and quite busy." (Fox News, 03.19.21)
  • Peskov said such statements as made by Biden are “unprecedented” in the history of Russian-U.S. relations and he warned that Russia's response to these remarks would be "absolutely clear." "It is clear that he does not want to get the relationship with our country back on track, and we will proceed from that," Peskov said. Peskov declined to say if Moscow was ready to sever diplomatic ties with the United States altogether. (AFP, 03.17.21, RFE/RL, 03.18.21)
  • “This is a watershed moment,” Konstantin Kosachev, the head of the Foreign Affairs Committee in Russia’s upper house of parliament, wrote. “Any expectations for the new U.S. administration’s new policy toward Russia have been written off by this boorish statement.” (New York Times, 03.18.21)
  •  “Mr. Biden's comment about Putin does not suit a head of state,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was quoted as saying March 19. “For me, Mr. Putin has done what is necessary by giving a very, very smart, very classy response,” he added. (The Moscow Times, 03.19.21)
• Four countries including the U.S. called on the Afghan government and the Taliban to reduce violence and begin discussions on sharing power, in a fresh effort to end the two-decade war as a deadline for the full withdrawal of American troops draws closer. At a peace conference hosted by Moscow on March 18, the U.S., Russia, China and Pakistan added that they would not support the restoration of an Islamic Emirate under the Taliban, and that any peace settlement must protect the rights of all Afghans, including women and minorities. U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad's presence was seen as a sign of Washington's increasing effort to attract support among regional powers–including China and Russia–for its plans for Afghanistan. (RFE/RL, 03.19.21, Wall Street Journal, 03.18.21)
  • A senior Afghan official says the government and the Taliban have agreed at the meeting in Moscow to try to accelerate talks aimed at ending decades of war in the country. (RFE/RL, 03.19.21)
  • The Afghan government agreed to attend an international peace conference with the Taliban in Turkey next month, proposed by the Biden administration to accelerate talks toward ending the 20-year war. Russia has yet to confirm whether it will take part in the Istanbul meeting in April, Russia's special representative for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov said March 18. (Wall Street Journal, 03.12.21, Interfax, 03.18.21)
  • Biden said it would be ''tough'' to meet a May 1 deadline to withdraw all remaining U.S. troops from Afghanistan, publicly indicating for the first time that he could extend the American troop presence there. (New York Times, 03.18.21)
  • The G7 group of nations has marked the seventh anniversary of Russia’s forcible annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula by reaffirming their “unwavering support” for the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders. (RFE/RL, 03.18.21)
• Buried deep in U.S. Department of Health and Human Services lay a startling admission: U.S. health officials under Trump worked to convince Brazil to reject Russia's Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine. Moscow has accused the United States of targeting its vaccine by pressuring Brazil to reject it, Russia’s sovereign wealth fund that markets the vaccine worldwide said March 15. (The Moscow Times, 03.16.21, The Washington Post, 03.16.21)
• The United States has expanded restrictions imposed on Russian experts that were imposed earlier this month as punishment for the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. The U.S. Commerce Department said that the new measures which come into effect March 18 will prevent the sale to Russia of more items controlled for national-security reasons. Such items will include technology, software and parts. (RFE/RL, 03.17.21)
• A bipartisan group of top U.S. senators has called on Putin to halt Russia’s “state-sponsored assault on media freedom” through the targeting of RFE/RL. (RFE/RL, 03.13.21)
• Russia will block Twitter within a month if it fails to delete banned content, authorities told state media March 16. (The Moscow Times, 03.16.21)
• Russian media are reporting that Apple has agreed to sell its gadgets in Russia with preinstalled Russian-made software to comply with a law that comes into force April 1. (RFE/RL, 03.16.21)
• The U.S. Defense Department's internal watchdog has concluded a long-delayed investigation into Michael Flynn, defense officials said March 12, sending its findings to the U.S. Army in a case that could bring tens of thousands of dollars. The investigation focuses on Flynn's acceptance of money from Russian and Turkish interests before joining the Trump administration, a potential violation of the Constitution's emoluments clause. (The Washington Post, 03.13.21.)
• "The Kremlin views him [Biden] as part of the reflexively anti-Russia U.S. foreign policy establishment," according to a new report by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. "Putin also probably considers President Biden more apt to echo the idea of American 'exceptionalism,' which he and other Kremlin leaders have often publicly criticized as problematic and dangerous,” the report says. (RFE/RL, 03.17.21)
• The Senate confirmed Biden's choice to lead the CIA, veteran diplomat William J. Burns, on a voice vote after a Republican senator lifted a hold on the nomination that had forced a two-week delay. (Wall Street Journal, 03.19.21)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia on March 19 confirmed 9,699 new coronavirus cases and 443 deaths compared to 9,803 new coronavirus cases and 460 deaths on March 18. (The Moscow Times, 03.18.21, The Moscow Times, 03.19.21)  Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia. For a comparison of the number and rate of change in new cases in the U.S. and Russia, visit this Russia Matters resource.
• "Russia is leading in Europe by the number of full vaccination courses against the coronavirus infection completed. Already 3.5 million people received both doses of Sputnik V," RDIF said March 15. (Interfax, 03.15.21)
• Russia’s industrial production fell heavily by 3.7 percent year on year in February on account of the leap year affect, down from a 1.9 percent contraction the month before, Rosstat reported March 16. “This is significantly worse than in January (-1.9 percent). However, the headline number should not disappoint, as y/y comparisons are affected by the leap year: in February 2020, there was one extra day,” BCS Global Markets said in a note. (bne IntelliNews, 03.16.21)
• Consumer spending by Russians in 2020 decreased by 9 percent compared to 2019, which is the biggest decline since 2015, according to the analytical service of international audit and consulting network FinExpertiza. (TASS, 03.16.21)
• Russia’s Central Bank said March 19 it has raised its key interest rate for the first time since 2018 as rising inflation and food prices forced a shift toward tightening its monetary policy. The benchmark was raised to 4.5 percent from a record low of 4.25 percent, the bank said in a statement. It marks the first rate hike since late 2018, when the bank paused four years of monetary easing that started after U.S. sanctions over the annexation of Crimea sunk markets and revived risks of inflation. (The Moscow Times, 03.19.21)
• The Russian government’s budget for its 2025-2035 renewables program will be cut from 400 billion rubles ($5.4 billion) to 313 billion rubles ($4.3 billion), unnamed sources told Kommersant, citing a March 11 meeting between Deputy Prime Ministers Alexander Novak and Yury Borisov. (The Moscow Times, 03.18.21)
• At the end of 2020, Russia had approximately 143.8 million citizens (not including the Crimean Peninsula) after the population decreased by 0.4 percent, which is slightly faster than in previous years, reports the Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) in its weekly round-up. The decline in the population was mainly due to a sharp increase in mortality as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, but the birth rate also continued to decline. Net immigration was positive, but significantly lower than in previous years. About 2.1 million people died last year. (bne IntelliNews, 03.19.21)
• Russian scientists on March 13 launched one of the world's biggest underwater space telescopes to peer deep into the universe from the pristine waters of Lake Baikal. Dubbed Baikal-GVD, the telescope was submerged to a depth of 750-1,300 meters (2,500-4,300 feet), around four kilometers from the lake's shore. (AFP, 03.14.21)
• As of Jan. 1, there were 10,836 electric vehicles registered in Russia, representing an overall uptick of 71 percent over last year’s figures. (Bellona, 03.15.21)
• The share of Russians who say they’re not interested in politics has reached its highest level of the modern era, a survey by the Levada Center polling agency said March 16. According to the poll, nearly one-third of Russians, or 27 percent, said they are not interested in politics at all, compared to 12 percent of Russians who said they were indifferent to politics in October 1990. (The Moscow Times, 03.16.21)
• Russian police on March 13 arrested around 200 opposition politicians and municipal deputies at a Moscow conference. A police raid on an opposition conference dedicated to running for municipal office came after Navalny was jailed for two and a half years last month and more than 10,000 protesters detained across the country. (The Moscow Times, 03.13.21)
• Russian police on March 19 raided the Moscow offices of an opposition movement and media outlet backed by exiled Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky in the latest move against the former oligarch, the groups said. (The Moscow Times, 03.19.21)
• Navalny has confirmed his relocation to a notorious penitentiary in the city of Pokrov, likening the institution to "a friendly concentration camp." (RFE/RL, 03.15.21)

Defense and aerospace:

• The Russian Navy will commission a Borey-A class submarine, Knyaz Oleg, and two Yasen-M class submarines, Kazan and Novosibirsk, by the end of this year, the force’s chief admiral, Nikolai Yevmenov, was quoted as saying by the Red Star daily March 19. He also said the Russian defense industry is designing the fifth generation of multi-purpose submarines and SSBNs. (Russia Matters, 03.19.21)
• As many as 183 military attaches from 34 countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States, Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin American have voluntarily been vaccinated against COVID-19 with the Russian Sputnik V vaccine at the Russian Defense Ministry's medical center in Moscow, the ministry said. (Interfax, 03.19.21)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• The independent Russian investigative newspaper Novaya Gazeta says it believes the entrance to the building in Moscow that houses its offices has been targeted in a "chemical attack.” Novaya Gazeta's staff members say that the odor is very similar to one that was present when the home and car of correspondent Yulia Latynina was sprinkled with an unknown chemical in 2017. (RFE/RL, 03.15.21)
• A special police regiment in Russia's North Caucasus region has urged Putin "to protect" them from "defamation" by Novaya Gazeta after it published a report about alleged extrajudicial killings and torture by law enforcement in the region. The unit’s statement came two days after Novaya Gazeta published an interview with a former police officer of the regiment, Suleiman Gezmakhmayev, who confirmed the torture and killing by police of at least 13 Chechen men in January 2017. (RFE/RL, 03.18.21)
• Russian security officers have detained an alleged Islamic State supporter who was plotting a terrorist attack in southern Russia, TASS reported March 17. The unnamed suspect, a native of Central Asia, is accused of planning a terrorist attack at a shopping mall in the republic of Adygeya’s capital of Maykop. (The Moscow Times, 03.17.21)
• The Moscow City Court has upheld a lower court decision to extend the pretrial detention of former journalist Ivan Safronov, who is charged with high treason, until May 7. He was arrested on July 7, 2020, amid allegations that he had passed secret information to the Czech Republic in 2017 about Russian arms sales in the Middle East. (RFE/RL, 03.18.21)
• The lower house of Russia’s parliament has adopted legislation that would introduce sentences of up to five years in prison for insulting World War II veterans. (RFE/RL, 03.17.21)

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• International deliveries of arms were flat from 2016 through 2020 compared with the previous five-year period, but they were still close to the highest level since the end of the Cold War, SIPRI said in a report released on March 15. The United States remained the top exporter, accounting for 37 percent of global arms transfers. Russia, the world's second-largest exporter, accounted for one-fifth of global arms deliveries, but its sales declined by 22 percent compared to the 2011-15 period, mainly due to a sizeable drop in imports by India, SIPRI said. (RFE/RL, 03.15.21)
• In a 550-page report made public March 16, a U.N.-appointed panel of experts documented scores of shipments of illicit items, including drones and transport aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, artillery pieces and armored vehicles, as well as the deployment of mercenaries to Libya's two chief factions by Russia, Turkey, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and others. (The Washington Post, 03.18.21)
• The head of Russia's RDIF sovereign wealth fund says it has reached "agreements with companies from Italy, Spain, France and Germany to launch production" of the Russian Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine. (RFE/RL, 03.15.21)
• Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz on March 17 appealed to European regulatory authorities to approve Russia’s Sputnik V and other safe coronavirus vaccines as soon as possible. (The Moscow Times, 03.17.21)
• The developer of Russia's Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine said March 19 its shot had been approved for use in the Philippines, becoming the 52nd country to give the green light to the Russian vaccine. (The Moscow Times, 03.19.21)

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• Lavrov will pay working visits to China and South Korea from March 22 to March 25, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry. (TASS, 03.18.21)
• China was the second largest buyer of Russian arms in 2016-2020 accounting for 18 percent of Russia’s arms exports compared to India’s 23 percent, according to SIPRI and BOFIT. (Russia Matters, 03.19.21) 
• Russia’s and China’s plans on cooperating to create a lunar research station are not aimed against the West and both countries are open to the participation of other states, head of Russia’s state space corporation Roscosmos Dmitry Rogozin said. What Rogozin and CNSA’ Zhang Kejian signed on March 19 was a memorandum of understanding, which are typically not legally binding. China and Russia plan to use joint experience and scientific technologies to create a roadmap for building an international research station on the moon. (TASS, 03.15.21, Russia Matters, 03.18.21)

Ukraine:

• The Kremlin has not received any new settlement plan for Donbass, which, according to Kyiv, had been created, Peskov said March 18. Chief of the Ukrainian presidential office Andrei Yermak earlier said that a specific plan for a settlement in Donbass proposed by Germany and France and adjusted by Ukraine was on the negotiating table. He claimed that this plan matched the spirit of the Minsk accords. (TASS, 03.11.21)
• Russia has not received an invitation to a summit in the Normandy format in April and believes it is unreasonable to arrange it before the decisions made at the previous meeting between the four leaders are implemented, a Moscow-based source told Interfax. Before a new meeting is arranged, the parties to the conflict should put into practice all seven decisions agreed upon between the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine more than a year ago, the source said. (Interfax, 03.12.21)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced the creation of the Crimean Platform to coordinate efforts on the international level to reinstate Ukrainian jurisdiction on the peninsula. Zelenskiy said he had discussed this initiative with representatives of the EU, the U.K., Canada and Turkey. Kyiv’s plan stipulates that the Crimean Platform should be launched with a so-called inauguration summit scheduled for Aug. 23, 2021. (TASS, 03.15.21)
  • Moscow considers Kyiv’s efforts to reclaim Crimea as illegitimate, and they represent a threat of aggression against two Russian regions, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova said in a statement March 15. (TASS, 03.15.21)
• Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry welcomes the decision of the Council of the European Union to extend until Sept. 15, 2021, the period of personal sanctions against 177 individuals and 48 legal entities due to their actions that threaten the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. (Interfax, 03.12.21)
• In his nearly 50 days in office, Biden has spoken to close to two dozen world leaders, from allies to adversaries to frenemies. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is still waiting his turn. (Politico, 03.13.21)
• A Ukrainian soldier was mortally wounded on March 12 by a Russian sniper near the front line city of Mariinka, 30 kilometers west of Donetsk. (Kyiv Post, 03.13.21)
• U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price has called the arrest of journalist Vladislav Yesypenko in Russian-annexed Crimea for allegedly spying on behalf of Kyiv "another attempt to repress those who speak the truth about Russia's aggression in Ukraine." (RFE/RL, 03.18.21)
• The Ukrainian navy accepted its first RK-360 Neptune coastal defense system. (Defense Blog, 03.16.21)
• Iran’s civil aviation body has blamed a mistake by an air-defense operator for the downing of a Ukrainian passenger airliner last year that killed all 176 people on board. (RFE/RL, 03.17.21)
• Ukraine’s capital will become the latest European city to go into lockdown, with strict three-week measures being introduced for Kyiv on March 20 as vaccinations failed to prevent a third wave of coronavirus infections. (New York Times, 03.19.21)
• Rinat Akhmetov, with a fortune of $7.6 billion, topped the rating of the richest businessmen in Ukraine, according to the website of Forbes Ukraine. Now Akhmetov is ranked the 330th richest person in the world. (Interfax, 03.14.21)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev says he has agreed with visiting Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov on how to proceed to solve border issues between the two Central Asian nations within three months. (RFE/RL, 03.12.21)
• Kyrgyzstan has brought back dozens of children from Iraq, becoming the latest Central Asian state to repatriate its citizens since thousands from the region went to fight with extremist groups in Iraq and Syria. (RFE/RL, 03.16.21)
• The EU delegation that arrived in the Georgian capital Tbilisi March 12 to broker a peace deal between the country’s bitterly divided political parties had hoped to be back in Brussels two days later. Almost a week on, they remain mired in fraught negotiations that have ramifications not just for Georgia, but also the ability of the EU to influence events in its own backyard. An EU official added: “If we cannot keep a small trans-Caucasus country that is eager to be associated with us within our orbit, then what the hell can we do?” (Financial Times, 03.18.21)
• The de facto parliament of Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia has approved a new figure to lead the next government, ending nearly six months of political deadlock and an opposition boycott. South Ossetia's de facto president, Anatoly Bibilov, issued a decree on March 12 making Gennady Bekoyev the region's prime minister after a majority of lawmakers agreed to his candidacy. (RFE/RL, 03.14.21)
• Human Rights Watch is calling on Azerbaijan to investigate all allegations of ill-treatment against Armenian prisoners of war from last fall’s war over the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region, and to hold those responsible to account. (RFE/RL, 03.19.21)
• The Committee to Protect Journalists is calling for a full investigation into the most recent attack on an exiled Azerbaijani video blogger who has been critical of the government in Baku. Mahammad Mirzali was beaten and stabbed on March 14 by a group of men in France. (RFE/RL, 03.17.21)
• Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has agreed to hold early general elections in June in an effort to defuse a political crisis sparked by the war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. (RFE/RL, 03.18.21)
  • A survey by the International Republican Institute in Armenia found 55 percent of respondents said they were in favor of a snap election. Another recent poll, from MPG/Gallup International, found that 44 percent wanted Pashinyan to step down, and 39 percent wanted him to stay in office. Perhaps surprisingly to some observers, given the persistent street protest calls for Pashinyan to go, 33 percent of respondents said they would vote for the PM’s party. The next most popular party was Prosperous Armenia, but it got only 3 percent support. (bne IntelliNews, 03.17.21)
  • Levon Ter-Petrosian, Armenia’s first president, has called for the immediate resignation of Pashinyan “in the interest of the nation.” Ter-Petrosian said Pashinyan should step down voluntarily, be granted “legal guarantees of immunity” by parliament and leave the country at least temporarily. (RFE/RL, 03.16.21)
• Russia will help Armenia extend the life of its nuclear power plant in Metsamor for another 10 years, according to the director of the station. Addressing a conference in Yerevan on the development of nuclear energy in Armenia on March 18, Movses Vardanian said the extension will add 10 more years to the life of the station, which is currently due to be decommissioned in 2026. (RFE/RL, 03.19.21)
• More than 400 people have been convicted so far in a brutal crackdown by authorities against pro-democracy protesters in Belarus following a disputed presidential election seven month ago. (RFE/RL, 03.17.21)

 

IV. Quoteworthy

• No significant developments.