This Week’s Highlights 

• "Even if we sunk this ship, it would still be difficult to imagine that the world would be on the brink of a world war, because those who do this know that they cannot emerge victorious from this war,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said of the HMS Defender’s voyage off Crimea. Putin also claimed that a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft was in the vicinity and operating in concert with the HMS Defender. In a quick response to Putin, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesman denied any wrongdoing and said the vessel acted in accordance with international law as it conducted innocent passage through Ukrainian territorial waters, various news outlets reported, including RFE/RL, The Wall Street Journal, and Russia Matters.
• During his annual call-in show on June 30 Vladimir Putin sought to portray the United States as a waning power. "The world is changing dramatically," he said. "On the one hand, our partners in the United States understand this, therefore there was a meeting in Geneva. On the other hand, they are trying at all costs to maintain their monopoly position,” The Wall Street Journal, reported. According to the Kremlin press service, Putin said: “In 1991 China's GDP was 20 percent of the U.S. GDP, but today it is… 120 percent. The volume of trade of China with Europe exceeded the volume of trade of the United States with its main ally, the united Europe.”
• The leaders of China and Russia on Monday announced the extension of a 20-year-old friendship treaty as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping held a televised meeting by video link. “China and Russia will devote the utmost of their souls and thoughts in applying efforts toward strengthening their cooperation,” Xi said during the virtual meeting, as reported by The Moscow Times/AFP and Interfax. Separately Putin also congratulated Xi on the centenary of the Chinse Communist party’s founding, TASS reported. Putin did not discuss China at the talks with his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden in Geneva, but the rivalry between Washington and Beijing was ‘in the air,’ Putin’s spokesman Peskov said, according to TASS. 
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says he expects the United States and Russia to launch new arms control talks by mid-July. "Within days–I hope by mid-July–we plan a meeting of delegations, which are to discuss tasks set forth by the [Russian and U.S.] presidents in the area of strategic stability, arms control, and reduction," Lavrov said on June 30, RFE/RL, reported.
• Russia and the United States have joined efforts to organize an event commemorating those who were killed by terrorists in the 9/11 attacks, prior to the 20th anniversary the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, Vladimir Voronkov, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism, told a press conference on June 30, according to TASS.
• U.S. consulates in Russia will suspend their operations as of August 1. U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan said that the consulates will be unable to process visa applications due to the staff cuts, adding that it will affect both Russian and U.S. citizens as well as businesses, RFE/RL reported.        

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security:

• On June 28, 2021, the International Physical Protection Advisory Service mission started its work in the Republic of Belarus. The mission focuses on national arrangements for the physical security of nuclear material and nuclear installations, the physical protection system of the nuclear facilities, the system for the physical protection of nuclear material during its transportation, information, and computer security. The IPPAS mission will finish its work on July 9, 2021. (Russian Nudclear Secuirity, 07.01.21)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Russia is ready to help North Korea contain coronavirus infections if necessary, according to Kazbek Taisayev, coordinator of the group of friendship between the State Duma and the North Korean parliament. (Interfax, 06.30.21)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Outlines of a future agreement on the complete restoration of the Iran nuclear deal can already be seen at the Vienna talks, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzya said on June 30. “The diplomatic process is in full swing in Vienna to fully restore the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear program. Outlines of a future agreement can already be seen. There is a common understanding of how to move toward the end goal," he said at a meeting of the United Nations Security Council. (TASS, 06.30.21)
• Some parties to the Iran nuclear talks need more time before resuming negotiations in Vienna and a new round is unlikely before next week, Mikhail Ulyanov, Moscow's ambassador to the U.N. atomic watchdog, said on Twitter. "This isn't the case in point yet. Some participants need more time. Looks like we will meet in Vienna not earlier than next week." (Reuters, 07.01.21)
• Biden assured Israel on June 28 that Iran will never acquire a nuclear weapon, as he met with outgoing Israeli President Reuven Rivlin at the White House. “What I can say to you is that Iran will never get a nuclear weapon on my watch," Biden said at the start of a meeting in the Oval Office. (RFE/RL, 06.29.21)   

Great Power rivalry/New Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Putin challenged U.S. leadership in world affairs on June 30, arguing that an era of U.S. hegemony has come to an end as he touted Moscow's growing military strength and increasingly assertive foreign policy. Putin spoke during an annual event at which he answers questions from ordinary Russians. At the event, Putin pushed back, portraying the U.S. as a waning power. “The world is changing dramatically," he said. "On the one hand, our partners in the United States understand this, therefore there was a meeting in Geneva. On the other hand, they are trying at all costs to maintain their monopoly position." (The Wall Street Journal, 06.30.21)
• During an annual event at which he answers questions from ordinary Russians Putin said that a British warship that entered the Black Sea waters near Crimea last week was a provocation carried out by the British and the Americans. “It was a complex provocation," Putin said on June 30. "Even if we sunk this ship, it would still be difficult to imagine that the world would be on the brink of a world war, because those who do this know that they cannot emerge victorious from this war. ... They came to our borders and violated our territorial sea," he said. "We know what we are fighting for, we are fighting for ourselves, for our future on our territory." Putin also claimed that a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft was in the vicinity and operating in concert with the HMS Defender, suggesting that the two countries were therefore working together during the confrontation. Putin reiterated the claim that one of Russia’s warships fired warning shots and that a warplane dropped bombs in the path of Britain's HMS Defender. (The Wall Street Journal, 06.30.21, RFE/RL, 06.30.21, RM, 07.01.21)     
  • In a quick response to Putin, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesman denied any wrongdoing and said the vessel acted in accordance with international law as it conducted innocent passage through Ukrainian territorial waters. (RFE/RL, 06.30.21)  
  • Classified Ministry of Defence documents containing details for the Royal Navy operation which sparked a dispute with Russia last week have been discovered at a bus stop in Kent. Financial Times, 06.27.21)   
• Russia said June 29 it has activated its S-400 missile systems in annexed Crimea. The Navy’s Black Sea Fleet said several of its S-400 batteries joined the Pantsir-S surface-to-air missile systems, as well as 20 warplanes and helicopters including Su-27 air-defense fighters, for training checks. Also, Black Sea Fleet landing ships have held a live-firing exercise and its diesel-electric submarine Kolpino held an exercise in the underwater position off Crimea Russia’s muscle-flexing comes as Ukraine and 32 NATO members launched the two-week Sea Breeze 2021 drills on June 28 involving 5,000 military personnel, 40 aircraft and 32 warships. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 06.30.21, TASS, 07.01.21)
• The Netherlands on June 29 accused Russian fighter jets of "unsafe" behavior in an encounter with a Dutch warship in the Black Sea. The incident on June 23 involved the frigate HNMLS Evertsen, part of a carrier strike group with the British destroyer HMS Defender, which itself purportedly came under Russian warning fire a day earlier. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 06.30.21)
• The American missile destroyer USS Ross, which entered the Black Sea on Saturday, is being monitored by the Black Sea Fleet, the Russian military said. (Interfax, 06.28.21)
• Authorities in the Czech Republic have asked Russia to pay compensation for damages caused by a deadly 2014 arms depot explosion, the Czech Foreign Ministry said. The echo24.cz news website reported that the claim totals 650 million koruna, or 25.5 million euros. Russia's Foreign Ministry has summoned the Czech ambassador to Russia, Vitezslav Pivonka, after Prague demanded Moscow pay (RFE/RL, 06.28.21, RFE/RL, 07.01.21)          
• The Russian State Prosecutor's Office has banned Czech nongovernmental organization Freedom of Information Society after putting it on the “undesirable” list. (RFE/RL, 06.30.21)       

China-Russia: Allied or Aligned?

• The leaders of China and Russia announced the extension of a 20-year-old friendship treaty, hailing increasingly close ties and the "stabilizing role" of their relationship, as Putin and Xi Jinping held a televised meeting by video link. Putin said the friendship treaty has brought relations to an "unprecedented height" and that in February 2022 it will be extended for another five years. Xi said relations between Russia and China "set an example for the formation of a new type of international relations." "No matter what difficulties and trials are yet ahead, China and Russia will devote the utmost of their souls and thoughts in applying efforts toward strengthening their cooperation and moving ahead in confident strides,” Xi said.(The Moscow Times/AFP, Interfax, 06.28.21)
• Putin has congratulated General Secretary of the Communist Party of China’s (CPC) Central Committee and President Xi Jinping on the centenary of the party’s founding. "Your state is celebrating this momentous date with impressive, new advances in economic, social, scientific and technological development. China plays an important and constructive role in resolving current issues on the international agenda and in countering global threats and the challenges of our time," he said in a telegram posted on the Kremlin’s website on July 1. (TASS, 07.01.21)
• Putin said during his annual call-in show: “In 1991 China's GDP was 20 percent of the U.S. GDP, but today it is… 120 percent. The volume of trade of China with Europe exceeded the volume of trade of the United States with its main ally, the united Europe.” (Kremlin press service, 06.30.21)
  • "You rightly pointed out that, yes, America is concerned about China’s growth. But who can be concerned about China’s growth? Only one who seeks global hegemony," Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russia’s Channel One. Peskov explained that "the US makes up 25 percent of the global economy, and, indeed, China has already surpassed the US in terms of purchasing power parity." "China has outperformed the US, and it will continue to snap at its heels. These are profound changes, which make the United States’ claims to global leadership and hegemony impossible in the future," he emphasized. (TASS, 07.01.21) Recall Putin in 2011: “The main struggle now underway is for global leadership and we are not going to argue with China on this.” (NewsRu, October 18, 2011)
• Putin did not discuss China at the talks with his US counterpart Biden in Geneva, but the rivalry between Washington and Beijing was “in the air,” Peskov said. (TASS, 07.01.21)
• Cooperation between Russia and China plays an important role in upholding global stability in the world, Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said on June 28, opening the "Russia-China in the 21st century: a new type of partnership" expo, dedicated to the 20th anniversary of the Treaty on good-neighborliness, friendship and cooperation. (TASS, 06.28.21)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says he expects the United States and Russia to launch new arms control talks by mid-July. "Within days–I hope by mid-July–we plan a meeting of delegations, which are to discuss tasks set forth by the [Russian and U.S.] presidents in the area of strategic stability, arms control, and reduction," Lavrov said on June 30, according to Russian news agencies. (RFE/RL, 07.01.21)          

Counter-terrorism:

• Russia and the United States have joined efforts to organize an event commemorating those who were killed by terrorists in the 9/11 attacks, prior to the 20th anniversary the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, Vladimir Voronkov, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism, said at a press conference on Wednesday. "If we talk about the 20th anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks, we are working with our American colleagues to organize an event to commemorate the victims of the terrorists," he said. "The victims of terrorists are among the top issues on our office’s agenda. It is crucial to pay more attention to them and their plight." (TASS, 07.01.21)
• Russia reported it had killed an alleged member of the Islamic State jihadist group and arrested another, accusing them of planning simultaneous attacks in Moscow and the southern region of Astrakhan. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.01.21)

Conflict in Syria:

• Russia’s U.N. ambassador Vasily Nebenzya on Wednesday called a proposal to reopen a border crossing from Iraq to Syria’s northeast for delivering humanitarian aid “a non-starter.” He also refused to say what will happen to the only crossing now in operation, from Turkey to the country’s rebel-held northwest. (AP, 06.30.21)
• Turkey and Russia didn’t reach a new deal on Idlib regarding the M4 highway, as had been understood following a statement by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, a senior Turkish official said on Thursday, saying that a translation mistake had occured. Lavrov and his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu, held a meeting in the southern Turkish seaside town of Antalya on Wednesday, discussing outstanding issues and areas of bilateral cooperation between the two countries. (Middle East Eye, 07.01.21)
• The next round of negotiations on Syria in Kazakhstan's capital of Nur-Sultan will be held on July 7-8, the Kazakh Foreign Ministry said on June 23. (TASS, 06.25.21)
• Some 50 cadets at the Aleppo military flight school, reopened in 2018, are preparing for graduation, while Russian specialists are assisting in their training, the school’s deputy head, General Yousef Ahmad Hassan, told TASS on June 30. (TASS, 07.01.21)
• Russia condemns Israel’s airstrikes on the territory of Syria, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya said on June 25. According to the Al Hadath TV channel, the air assault left 10 people dead. (TASS, 06.25.21)
• The U.S. military, under the direction of Biden, carried out airstrikes against what it said were “facilities used by Iran-backed militia groups” near the border between Iraq and Syria, drawing condemnation from Iraq's military and calls for revenge by the militias. (Politco, 06.27.21)

Cyber security:

• American and British intelligence agencies on Thursday exposed the details of what they called a global effort by Russia’s military intelligence organization to break into government organizations, defense contractors, universities and media companies. The operation, described as crude but broad, is “almost certainly ongoing,” the National Security Agency and its British counterpart, known as GCHQ, said in a statement. For months, Russian military hackers have engaged in a campaign to compromise the passwords of people employed in sensitive jobs at hundreds of organizations worldwide including US and European government and military agencies, US and British national security officials said Thursday. (NYT, CNN, 07.01.21)
• The UN Security Council on June 29 held its first formal public meeting on cybersecurity, addressing the growing threat of hacks to countries' key infrastructure — an issue Biden recently raised with Russia's Putin. While the U.S. envoy to the world body asked that member states respect a framework already in place, her Russian counterpart called for a new treaty to be drafted. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 06.30.21)
• The United States remains by far the world's most cyber-capable nation with no major competitors for the title. That's the conclusion from a report released by the International Institute for Strategic Studies that reviews the cyber capabilities of 15 of the world's biggest players. The report relegates the most troublesome U.S. adversaries, Russia and China, to a second tier of cyber powers. That group also contains the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Israel and France. (The Washington Post, 06.28.21)
• Microsoft Corp. said hackers, linked by U.S. authorities to Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, installed malicious information-stealing software on one of its systems and used information gleaned there to attack its customers. The hackers compromised a computer used by a Microsoft customer support employee that could have provided access to different types of information, including "metadata" of accounts and billing contact information for the organization, a Microsoft spokesman said. Microsoft is aware of three customers that were affected by the recent activity, the company said in a blog post. (The Wall Street Journal, 06.26.21)
• A televised phone-in with Putin on June 30 was targeted by "powerful" cyberattacks, the state-run Rossiya 24 network which broadcast the event said. Shown on Kremlin-friendly media, the annual session with Putin sees the president field in real time queries submitted by Russians throughout the country. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 06.30.21)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Saudi Arabia and Russia reached a tentative agreement to gradually increase OPEC+ oil output, but prices kept rising as the cartel looked set to keep a firm grip on supply. Negotiations over the details of the supply hike are still underway, delegates said, asking not to be named because the information is private. The proposal under discussion would add about 2 million barrels a day to the cartel’s output from August to December, they said. (Bloomberg, 07.01.21)
• German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas warned against breaking off economic relations with Russia during his visit to Poland on Thursday, amid a dispute about the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. "Fundamentally, I'm of the opinion that it would put us in Europe in a difficult position if economic relations with Russia were no longer possible," Maas said. He cautioned it could drive Russia and China closer together. "It is not only wrong but also dangerous for our security interests in Europe," Maas added. (DW, 07.01.21)
• The United States and Germany are planning to agree on commitments to strengthen Ukraine's energy infrastructure and compensate for transit fees that may be lost as a result of the launch of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, Bloomberg has reported. It is noted that at the same time, the parties are also exploring ways to "deter Russian aggression through the threat of sanctions." The U.S. and Germany want to conclude a deal by August to blunt Moscow's geopolitical gains once the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is finished, that is, by Chancellor Angela Merkel's planned visit to Washington. (Interfax, 06.28.21)
• The head of Ukraine’s state-backed pipeline company has described Russia’s refusal to ship additional gas supplies to Europe as “blackmail”, with prices for the fuel having risen to the highest on record. Sergiy Makogon, chief executive of Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine, said he believed Russia’s Gazprom was purposefully holding back gas supplies from Europe by refusing to ship additional volumes via Ukraine, in a bid to force the approval of the contentious Nord Stream 2 pipeline that runs from the Baltic to Germany. (Financial Times, 07.01.21)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• U.S. consulates in Russia will suspend their operations as of August 1 due to a lack of staff after Moscow capped the number of its nationals allowed to work at the offices. U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan told the Dozhd television channel (TV Rain) on June 27 that the consulates will be unable to process visa applications due to the staff cuts, adding that it will affect both Russian and U.S. citizens as well as businesses. (RFE/RL, 06.28.21)             
• A Russian court has upheld the nine-year prison sentence of U.S. Marine Trevor Reed after being convicted in July 2020 for assaulting two police officer, in what the U.S. ambassador to Moscow called “another absurd miscarriage of justice." (RFE/RL, 06.28.21)             
• During an annual event at which he answers questions from ordinary Russians Putin on June 30 accused U.S. social media platforms operating in Russia of ignoring authorities' requests to delete illegal content, but stressed Moscow had no plans to block them. (The Wall Street Journal, 06.30.21)
• The Russian government has permitted the citizens of another ten countries, including the United States, to enter Russia by arriving at Russian airports from the territory of their countries. (Interfax, 06.30.21)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia on July 1 reported 672 coronavirus deaths over the past 24 hours, according to a government tally, setting a pandemic high of fatalities for the third day in a row. The daily death toll released topped a June 30 record of 669 and a June 29 record of 652. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has announced the beginning of a booster vaccine campaign amid efforts to contain highly infectious Delta variant. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 07.01.21, RFE/RL, 07.01.21) Here’s a link to RFE/RL’s interactive map of the virus’ spread around the world, including in Russia and the rest of post-Soviet Eurasia.
• Russia will not meet its widely publicized goal of reaching herd immunity against coronavirus through vaccination by this fall, the Kremlin said on June 29. Putin, fielding questions from across the country on his annual call-in show, urged citizens to overcome their hesitancy and get vaccinated against COVID-19 as the country continues to rack up daily records for deaths from the coronavirus. Putin said on June 30 that he was vaccinated against the coronavirus with Russia’s Sputnik V jab (RFE/RL, 06.30.21, The Moscow Times/AFP, 06.30.21, RFE/RL, 06.29.21)       
• Over 40 percent of Finland’s new coronavirus cases are linked to football fans returning from Euro 2020 matches in neighboring Russia, the country’s health authority said July 1. (The Moscow Times, 07.01.21)          
• On Monday the Central Bank of the Russian Federation officially announced they had launched a pilot program of their central bank digital currency (CBDC), the digital ruble. (Yahoo, 07.01.21)
• Russia’s business confidence remained at highs not seen since 2012 in June. The consumer confidence index, which reflects the aggregate consumer expectations of the population, increased by 3 percentage points in the second quarter of 2021 compared to the first quarter of 2021, amounting to -18 percent, as sentiment slowly improves amongst the population on the back of the economic recovery. (bne IntelliNews, 07.01.21)
• Construction on a second nuclear power plant in the Murmansk area will begin in 2028, (Bellona, 06.29.21)
• Putin has signed into law a bill that obliges foreign IT companies to set up local units or face penalties including a possible ban as Moscow continues to try and tighten its control over the flow of information on the Internet.(RFE/RL, 07.01.21)          
• Moscow police have carried out searches of the homes of several senior journalists at the investigative website The Project hours after it published a report questioning how Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev and his relatives gained their wealth. (RFE/RL, 06.29.21)       
• Russia has placed Ivan Zhdanov, the director of jailed Russian opposition politician Aleksei Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), on an international wanted list and shared the details of his case with Interpol. (RFE/RL, 06.29.21)       
• Russian authorities have taken further action against the network of exiled former tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky. The State Prosecutor's Office on June 30 labeled U.K.-registered Khodorkovsky Foundation, its subsidiary the Oxford Russia Fund, the London-based Future of Russia Foundation, and the French organization European Choice as “undesirable,” effectively banning their activities in Russia. (RFE/RL, 07.01.21)          
• Two members of the Jehovah’s Witnesses have been handed lengthy prison terms in Russia's Far Eastern city of Blagoveshchensk amid an ongoing crackdown on the religious group, which has been banned in Russia since 2017.The Jehovah's Witnesses' website says 30-year-old Dmitry Golik was sentenced to seven years and 43-year-old Aleksei Berchuk to eight years in prison on June 30. (RFE/RL, 06.30.21)       
• The Investigative Committee in Russia's Far Eastern city of Blagoveshchensk has launched a probe into a physical attack on a contributor to RFE/RL Andrei Afanasyev. (RFE/RL, 06.29.21)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia has launched a highly-secretive new nuclear missile. The mystery ballistic missile took off from the Plesetsk cosmodrome. TASS cited an unnamed defense source from within the Kremlin who claimed the top-secret operation took place sometime mid-June. Reports say the ICBM—named Kedr—was developed by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology (MITT) and comes in both mobile and silo-based variants. (The Sun, 06.28.21)
• Crews of self-contained launchers of the Yars (NATO reporting name: SS-29 Yars) ground-mobile missile system from the Strategic Missile Force’s missile large unit based in Teikovo in the Ivanovo Region in central Russia have gone on combat patrol during a tactical exercise, the Defense Ministry’s press office said. (TASS, 07.01.21)
• The Russian Navy’s only aircraft carrier, the long-suffering Admiral Kuznetsov, reportedly will return to operations three years later than originally planned, due to an unspecified issue aboard. Reportedly, the aircraft carrier is scheduled to be overhauled and modernized in 2023 and will be handed over to the Russian Navy at the end of the year. (Defence Blog, 06.27.21)
• The 58th combined-arms army in Ingushetia is forming a new motorized-infantry regiment, which has got new armored personnel carriers (APCs), the Russian Defense Ministry said on June 30. (Interfax, 06.30.21)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• Russian mercenaries deployed in one of Africa's most fragile countries killed civilians, looted homes and shot dead worshipers at a mosque during a major military operation earlier this year, United Nations investigators have found. The accusations of atrocities are documented in a report for the U.N. Security Council that was obtained by The New York Times and that details abuses tied to the contentious Russian involvement in the Central African Republic, an impoverished yet mineral-rich country that has been locked in civil war for nearly a decade. (The New York Times, 06.28.21)
• The Moscow City Court on June 30 extended by three months the pretrial detention of prominent former journalist Ivan Safronov, who is accused of treason. (RFE/RL, 07.01.21)          

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• EU ambassadors agreed Wednesday to prolong wide-ranging economic sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 for the annexation of Crimea and fueling the conflict in Ukraine, diplomats said. The latest six-month extension to the end of January are set to be formally signed off by foreign ministers meeting on July 12. The sanctions—slapped on Russia in the wake of the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17—target the country’s key banking, energy, and defense sectors. (AFP, 07.01.21)
• It is better for EU nations to discuss problems in relations with Russia directly with Moscow rather than among themselves, Angela Merkel said. “To my mind, [an EU-Russia summit] should address all matters of concern for us and on which we want to cooperate," she said in an online address to a French-German parliamentary assembly. "Whether it's Belarus or Russian influence, whether it's Ukraine and the Minsk process," she cited. "But there are strategic matters - disarmament, peace, security. There are issues of Syria’s and Libya’s future and we can discuss with the Russian president whether we could reach common results." Merkel’s initiative had the backing of her junior coalition partner, the Social Democrats. “The EU must become a major player in security policy . . . [and] act as one in international affairs,” Olaf Scholz, the SPD finance minister, told the Financial Times. “And Russia has to understand and accept EU integration.” (Financial Times, 06.25.21, TASS, 06.28.21)
• Germany has banned most travel from Russia due to the spread of mutated coronavirus strains there, the German Embassy in Moscow announced on June 29. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 06.30.21)

Ukraine:

• Putin on June 30 questioned the point of meeting with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy, claiming his country was effectively run by leaders in Washington and European capitals. "What's the use of meeting with Zelenskiy when he has given full control of his country to outside management?" Putin said during an annual televised phone-in with Russians. "I'm not refusing to meet with Zelenskiy, it's just necessary to understand what there is to talk about." (The Moscow Times/AFP, 06.30.21)
  • "This is a red line. Ukraine is not an independent state; it is a state under the direct influence of other countries or, to be more exact, another country, the United States,” Dmitry Peskov said of what he described as the external governance of Ukraine. Putin, working together with the national administration, will devise security measures to protect Moscow from any provocative aspirations on the part of Kyiv, he said. (Interfax, 07.01.21)
  • Ukrainians and Russians are not one people, although they share some history and tragedies, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in response to a remark that they are one people made by Putin on June 30. (Interfax, 07.01.21)
• "I think that Ukraine has very influential partners who support Ukraine's ambitions to become a NATO member. But this will not happen tomorrow, because, as I said, it will be a political decision. NATO has always had problems with countries at war. Of course. Because one of the advantages of NATO is the fifth article of the Washington Treaty. And everyone is afraid to be in a direct war with Russia," German Ambassador to Ukraine Anka Feldhusen said in an interview with ZN.UA, published Saturday morning. (Interfax, 06.28.21)
• Some 405 citizens of Ukraine, including members of the military and women, are in detention facilities in the Russian Federation and in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Commissioner Liudmyla Denisova said. (Interfax, 06.28.21)
• One Ukrainian serviceman died on Saturday, receiving an incompatible shrapnel wound as a result of shelling near Pisky village in Donetsk region. (Interfax, 06.26.21)

• The Ukrainian Border Service's Coast Guard will receive the first FPB98 ship manufactured jointly by Ukraine and France before the end of this year, Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said. (Interfax, 06.25.21)
• China responded angrily on June 26 to accusations that Beijing pressured Ukraine into withdrawing its support for greater scrutiny of Chinese actions in Xinjiang by threatening to withhold COVID-19 vaccine shipments. The Associated Press quoted multiple diplomats a day earlier as saying Ukraine took its name off a joint statement with more than 40 countries at the Human Rights Council in Geneva, after the Chinese issued their ultimatum to Kyiv. (RFE/RL, 06.26.21)
• After a decade of delays millions of Ukrainians that own 32 million hectares of land will be allowed to sell it for the first time on a newly created land market that goes into effect on July 1. (bne IntelliNews, 06.30.21)
• Ukraine’s industrial output increased 5.4 percent year on year in May, slowing from 13.0 percent y/y growth in April, the State Statistics Service reported. Seasonally adjusted output declined 3.0 percent month on month in May. (bne IntelliNews, 06.27.21)
• Ukraine’s exports of goods to the EU grew by 60 percent in the five years since Ukraine joined the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area pact with the EU, Prime Minister Shmygal writes on Facebook. This year, Ukraine’s exports to the EU may hit 20 billion euros. Last year, the EU took 41 percent of Ukraine’s exports of goods and services. (UBN, 06.28.21)
• Ukraine and Russia increased trade turnover by 7.87 percent in money terms to $3.21 billion in five months of this year compared with the same period in 2020, according to the information posted on the website of the Ukrainian State Customs Service. (TASS, 06.29.21)
• Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, has approved several draft laws aimed at reforming the judiciary and curbing corruption as Kyiv seeks to secure more loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under a $5 billion financing program approved last year. (RFE/RL, 06.29.21)
• Ukraine has signed a $350 million loan agreement with the World Bank that aims to help mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and support economic recovery, Prime Minister Shmygal said June 25. (UBN, 06.28.21)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Just four of the countries Southern and Eastern Mediterranean as well as of emerging Europe - Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan–achieved positive growth in 2020, according to EBRD. Others will rebound in 2021, but there are still a large number of countries from the region that will need until 2022 to return to the level of GDP they had in 2019.(bne IntelliNews, 06.29.21)
• Another group of Afghan government soldiers has fled across the border into Tajikistan as Taliban militants press an offensive across swaths of northern Afghanistan. Tajikistan’s border service said that 17 Afghan soldiers fled into the country on June 27 after Taliban militants attacked a border checkpoint located in the town of Chukchuk, in the Kaldor district in Balkh Province, Tajikistan's state media reported. (RFE/RL, 06.28.21)             
• There is no direct threat to Russia from the Taliban (outlawed in Russia) activities in Afghanistan, Russian Ambassador to that country Dmitry Zhirnov said on June 28. "There is no immediate direct threat [to Russia] from the Taliban," he said in an interview with the Rossiya-24 television channel when asked whether the Taliban’s activities could threaten Russia directly. (TASS, 06.28.21)
• The Central Military District said it would participate in a joint Russian-Uzbek exercise to be held in early August in Surkhandaryin region of Uzbekistan. (TASS, 06.30.21)
• In the first quarter of this year, 1,625 people attempted suicide in Kazakhstan. More than 1,000 of them died. Police say they've recorded 248 suicide attempts by young people, 84 of them fatal. That far outpaces 2020, when police reported about 300 such attempts all year–144 of them fatal. (RFE/RL, 06.26.21)      
• Police in Kazakhstan’s largest city, Almaty, have detained several activists who have been involved in ongoing pickets in front of the Chinese Consulate to demand the release of their relatives held in China's Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region. (RFE/RL, 07.01.21)          
• Fresh EU sanctions are intended to put Belarus's economic cash cows out to pasture, targeting some of the ostracized country's most important economic sectors and wealthiest and influential backers. But while the new measures are expected to hit Alexander Lukashenko's government squarely in the pocketbook, in some cases there stands to be an unintended beneficiary–Russia. Experts suggest that, with the loss of Belarusian potash exports to the European Union, excess supply is likely to be bought up by Uralkali, boosting its own standing on the global market. (RFE/RL, 06.26.21)      
• The European Union says it regrets Belarus’s decision to cut ties with the bloc, saying it will only further isolate the country and have a negative impact on the Belarusian people.
• In a statement on Facebook on June 28, the Belarusian Foreign Ministry announced Minsk had recalled its permanent representative to the EU for consultations after Brussels imposed economic sanctions in response to the forced diversion of a passenger flight to Minsk last month that allowed for the arrest of a dissident journalist and his girlfriend. (RFE/RL, 06.29.21)       
• The United States has banned the sale of plane tickets to and from Belarus in its latest response to the forced diversion of a passenger flight to Minsk last month that led to the arrest of a dissident journalist and his girlfriend. (RFE/RL, 06.29.21)       
• "We will continue to provide comprehensive assistance to the brotherly Belarusian people in the current political situation,” Putin told the eighth Forum of Regions of Russia via video conference on July 1. Russian and Belarusian scientists are discussing the prospects of jointly developing a plasma propulsion engine for spacecraft, Putin said at the online forum. (TASS, 07.01.21, RFE/RL, 07.01.21)          
• The Czech Republic has agreed to establish an official office in Prague for the Belarusian opposition as it battles a brutal crackdown at home under the direction of authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko. (RFE/RL, 06.29.21)       
• Putin said during his annual call-in show: “Nobody is interested in the development [of the conflict]: neither Azerbaijan, nor Armenia, let alone the inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh. …. We will do everything to restore normal relations in the region. The beneficiaries of this work, of course, should be the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh.” Kremlin press service, 06.30.21)
• Georgian Defense Minister Juansher Burchuladze met with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the NATO headquarters in Brussels on June 30, the Georgian Defense Ministry press service said. The parties discussed the situation in the region and the importance of NATO's more intensive involvement in maintaining security in the Black Sea region, it said. (Interfax, 07.01.21)

 

IV. Quoteworthy:

• No significant developments.