6 Things to Know

1. During their June 27 presidential debate, Donald Trump said that Ukraine is not winning the war against invading Russia, while Joe Biden raised the specter of wider war if Vladimir Putin takes Ukraine. While Trump maintained that the war “never should have started” and that Vladimir Putin “never would have invaded Ukraine” if he were president, Trump also claimed that he “will have that war settled … as president-elect before I take office on Jan. 20.” Trump took issue with the vast amounts of aid the U.S. has provided Ukraine, saying “Every time that Zelenskyy comes to this country, he walks away with $60 billion dollars, he’s the greatest salesman ever.” Biden, however, pointed out that aiding Ukraine is in the U.S.’s own interest: “We’re needed to protect the world because our own safety is at stake.” He warned that if Putin is allowed to prevail in Ukraine, the Russian president will not stop there. “Do you think he’ll [Putin] stop when he—if he takes Ukraine? What do you think happens to Poland? What do you think of Belarus? What do you think happens to those NATO countries?” Biden asked. “You want to start the nuclear war he keeps talking about. Go ahead. Let Putin go in and control Ukraine and then move on to Poland and other places. See what happens then,” Biden warned. The Kremlin, meanwhile, dismissed the debate as an internal U.S. matter. “This isn’t a main event for us,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, according to Politico.
2. Estimates suggest the number of Russian war dead nearly doubled in 2023 compared to 2022. New estimates by Meduza and Important Stories based on recently released Rosstat data put the number of total war dead at 64,000 and over 70,000, respectively. Meduza writes that “excess male mortality didn’t just remain high last year—it nearly doubled compared to 2022,” with 24,000 excess deaths among men in 2022, 40,500 excess deaths among men in 2023 and 64,000 excess deaths among men over both years. Despite differing final figures due to different calculation methods, Important Stories also reported that the number of excess deaths in 2023 “is almost twice as much as in 2022.” Demographers who spoke to Important Stories “suggested that this estimate is only the minimum possible number of war deaths.”
3. In the past month, Russian forces have gained 50 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 6 square miles, according to the June 25, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card.
4. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his new Russian counterpart Andrei Belousov on June 25 for the first time. During their conversation, Austin “emphasized the importance of maintaining lines of communication amid Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine,” Bloomberg reports. Russia's Defense Ministry said in a statement that Belousov and Austin had "exchanged views on the situation around Ukraine," and that Belousov “pointed to the danger of further escalation of the situation in connection with the ongoing supply of U.S. weapons" to Ukraine, according to MT/AFP. Earlier in the week, Moscow warned Washington of "consequences" following a deadly Ukrainian strike on Sevastopol in annexed Crimea that Russia said was carried out with U.S.-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles, Bloomberg and MT/AFP report. Additionally, Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov instructed the army’s General Staff to take “rapid response measures” against U.S. drones over the Black Sea as their increased activity raises the likelihood of incidents in airspace, Bloomberg reports.
5. The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s army chief. Both are “accused of the war crime of directing attacks at civilian objects and causing excessive incidental harm to civilians in Ukraine,” Bloomberg reports. The Kremlin dismissed the actions as “‘absurd’ and lacking in legal force,” according to MT/AFP.
6. The June 23 coordinated and deadly attacks by gunmen in the cities of Makhachkala and Derbent in the majority Muslim region of Dagestan, including the seizure of a church and a synagogue, is raising the specter that Russia may be facing a wave of violence by religious extremists, according to Bloomberg. That wave is rising even as pro-Kremlin media played down a claim from Al Azaim Media, which is associated with ISIS’s Khorasan branch (ISIS-K), that the attack was carried out in response to calls for attacks on behalf of ISIS, according to WP. Meanwhile, Сhechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov warned that the attackers and their accomplices would be “punished to the fullest extent of the law,” according to MT/AFP. For an early warning by Graham Allison and Michael Morell, see their June 10, 2024, article in FA, in which they argue that the U.S. faces “a serious threat of a terrorist attack in the months ahead,” indicated by, among other factors, the rising number of successful terrorist attacks, such as ISIS-K’s deadly raid of the concert hall in March 2024.*

NB: The next Russia in Review will appear on Wednesday, July 3 due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• No significant developments.

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea said for the first time on June 27 that it had tested technology for launching several nuclear warheads with a single missile, days after Russian President Vladimir Putin visited and raised the prospect of expanded military and technical cooperation. The test on June 26 was “aimed at securing the MIRV capability,” the North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency reported. (NYT, 06.27.24)
  • Col. Lee Sung-jun, a spokesman for the South Korean military, said on June 27 that there was “deception and exaggeration” in the North’s announcement. South Korean officials dismissed the June 26 test as a failure soon after it occurred, saying a missile had exploded over waters east of North Korea after flying 150 miles. They said the test appeared to have involved a hypersonic ballistic missile. (NYT, 06.27.24)
• Putin’s aide said it’s time for the international community to reconsider what needs to be changed in the U.N. sanctions regime against North Korea. Moscow and Pyongyang plan to continue their “tight coordination” on the international arena, Yuri Ushakov said on June 25, according to Tass. (Bloomberg, 06.25.24)
• The United States, South Korea, and Japan have condemned the deepening military cooperation between North Korea and Russia. The three Western allies said in a joint statement on June 24 that the increasing ties between Moscow and Pyongyang, including arms transfers that aid Russia's war in Ukraine, serve to "prolong the suffering of the Ukrainian people, violate multiple United Nations Security Council Resolutions and threaten stability in both Northeast Asia and Europe." The statement also said that the recent signing of a strategic partnership treaty between Russia and North Korea during Putin's June 19 visit "should be of grave concern to anyone with an interest in maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, upholding the global nonproliferation regime, and supporting the people of Ukraine as they defend their freedom and independence against Russia’s brutal aggression." (RFE/RL, 06.24.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Gazprom has signed a memorandum with the National Iranian Gas Company to explore pipeline gas supply options, the Russian state-owned gas and oil company announced on June 26. (FT, 06.26.24)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Russia is guilty of torturing, beating and numerous other human rights violations of Ukrainian nationals since it occupied Crimea in 2014, the European Court of Human Rights has ruled. There were 43 cases of disappearances or abductions between 2014 and 2018 and the forced relocation of some 12,500 Crimean prisoners onto Russian territory, the Strasbourg-based court said on June 25. (Bloomberg, 06.25.24)
• Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic asked the European Union for financial support to help cover the cost of hosting Ukrainian refugees since the three countries have taken in the lion’s share since Russia’s invasion. “More than 50% of Ukrainian refugees who have entered the European Union live in Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic,” they wrote in a letter, seen by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, 06.27.24)
• Trump said during the June 27 Biden-Trump presidential debate: “[Biden] got us in such a bad position right now with Ukraine and Russia because Ukraine’s not winning that war. He said, I will never settle until such time – they’re running out of people, they’re running out of soldiers, they’ve lost so many people. It’s so sad. They’ve lost so many people and they’ve lost those gorgeous cities with the golden domes that are 1,000-years-old, all because of him and stupid decisions.” (CNN, 06.28.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month, Russian forces have gained 50 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 6 square miles, according to the June 25, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force, 06.25.24)

• On June 22, Kremlin forces struck a residential area of Kharkiv with glide bombs, hours after a missile and drone barrage directed at Ukraine’s already hobbled power system. At least three people were killed and 18 injured in one of the northeastern city. (Bloomberg, 06.22.24)

• On June 23, Russian officials said four people were killed, including two children, and more than 150 people were injured in what Russia said was an ATACMS missile attack in Sevastopol, Crimea’s largest city. Russia’s Defense Ministry said its air defenses downed four missiles while a fifth was struck and diverted from its trajectory before exploding over the city. The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned U.S. Ambassador Lynne Tracy over the attack.  (Bloomberg, 06.24.24)
  • Authorities in Moscow on June 24 warned Washington that it would face "consequences" following the deadly Ukrainian strike on annexed Crimea that was said to have been carried out with U.S.-supplied long-range missiles. (MT/AFP, 06.24.24)
  • The United States responded on June 24 to Russia's claim that it was to blame for a deadly attack on Crimea on June 23 by pointing the finger back at Moscow for starting the war and by saying that the weapons it provides are for Ukraine to use to defend its territory against Russian aggression. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that U.S. specialists had set the missiles' flight coordinates based on information gathered from U.S. satellites. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller responded by saying it was not unusual for Moscow to make "ridiculous, hyperbolic claims about responsibility that aren't borne out by fact." (RFE/RL, 06.24.24)
• On June 24, a Russian missile strike on the city of Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk region killed at least four residents and injured dozens, including children. (RFE/RL, 06.24.24)
• On June 24-25, overnight drone attacks against southwestern Russia’s Belgorod region have left at least one person dead and scores of buildings and vehicles damaged, regional authorities said early June 25, while Ukraine’s military claimed responsibility for a strike on an ammunition depot. Russia's Defense Ministry said its air-defense systems shot down 29 Ukrainian drones over the Belgorod region and one over the Voronezh region early on June 25. (MT/AFP, 06.25.24, RFE/RL, 06.25.24)
• On June 25, authorities in Moscow said they could not confirm reports that a Russian fighter jet downed an American surveillance drone over the Black Sea after Ukraine launched a deadly strike against annexed Crimea said to have been carried out with U.S.-supplied missiles. Pro-war Russian bloggers claimed late June 24 that a MiG-31 fighter jet “shot down” a Global Hawk reconnaissance drone over the Black Sea. An anonymous U.S. military official later denied the reported incident, according to Reuters. (MT/AFP, 06.25.24)
• On June 27, Russia pounded Ukraine with air strikes early and shelled civilian settlements in the frontline eastern region of Donetsk, killing at least one person and wounding 14, the military and regional officials said. The death occurred during shelling of the industrial city of Toretsk, while those wounded were inhabitants of Memryk, Selidovo, and Komar, regional Gov. Vadym Filashkin reported on Telegram. The Ukrainian military reported that Russia attacked Ukraine with six cruise missiles and 23 drones early on June 27.  Ukrainian air defenses shot down five of the missiles and all drones launched at targets in Ukraine, the military reported. Serhiy Tyurin, the governor of the western region of Khmelnytskiy said on Telegram that nine incoming targets were shot down over the region, with no reports of casualties among civilians. (RFE/RL, 06.27.24)
• On June 28, a Ukrainian drone set an oil depot in the central Tambov region ablaze, regional authorities said. Tambov region Gov. Maxim Yegorov said the drone strike happened at 4:35 am local time. Russia's Defense Ministry, meanwhile, said it had intercepted 25 Ukrainian drones overnight, but without mentioning the Tambov region attack in its statement. In the western Bryansk region, governor Alexander Bogomaz said a drone had been downed, with the falling debris "partially destroy[ing] the roof of an administrative building." (MT/AFP, 06.28.24)
• On June 28, as Ukrainians marked Constitution Day, Moscow unleashed a fresh wave of drone and artillery strikes on the southern regions for the second day in a row, causing damage but no reported casualties. "From very early in the morning, the Russian military struck the city of Nikopol again, targeting the district center with kamikaze drones," Dnipropetrovsk regional Gov. Serhiy Lysak said on Telegram, without specifying the number of drones. "There are no dead or wounded," Lysak said, adding that several houses and industrial facilities in the city had been damaged in the attack. Regional Gov. Oleksandr Prokudin reported on June 28 on Telegram that 28 settlements across the Kherson region were targeted in the attack that wounded a total of six people and damaged a critical infrastructure facility. (RFE/RL, 06.28.24)
• Ukrainian strikes against a Russian airbase outside of the occupied territories have likely “disrupted” the Kremlin’s ability to launch its own drone attacks, the U.K.’s Ministry of Defence has said. Writing on X, formerly Twitter, the MoD said in an intelligence update that it was “highly likely” Ukrainian strikes last week on the Yeysk airbase in Krasnodar Krai, a region on the other side of the Kerch Strait from occupied Crimea, had damaged Russia’s drone capabilities. They added that the successful attack, carried out on 21 June, could force Russia to relocate its more vulnerable bases further from Ukrainian territory. (Independent, 06.28.24)
• Trump said during the June 27 Biden-Trump presidential debate: “As far as Russia and Ukraine, if we had a real president, a president that knew – that was respected by Putin, he would have never – he would have never invaded Ukraine. A lot of people are dead right now, much more than people know. You know, they talk about numbers. You can double those numbers, maybe triple those numbers. He did nothing to stop it. In fact, I think he encouraged Russia from going in.” (CNN, 06.28.24)
• Biden said during the June 27 Biden-Trump presidential debate: “[T]hey’ve [Russia] lost over – they’ve lost thousands and thousands of troops, 500,000 troops.” (CNN, 06.28.24)

• Federal mortality data suggests at least 64,000 Russian soldiers have died fighting in Ukraine. On June 27, Russia’s Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) published the country’s annual mortality data for 2023. According to the 2023 numbers, excess male mortality didn’t just remain high last year—it nearly doubled compared to 2022. The method used to estimate Russian military deaths based on these numbers was developed by statistician Dmitry Kobak and his colleagues in 2023 indicates: 24,000 excess deaths among men in 2022; 40,500 excess deaths among men in 2023; 64,000 excess deaths among men over both years. (Meduza, 06.28.24)

  • Estimates by independent outlet Important Stories using the new Rosstat data places the total number of Russian troops killed at over 70,000 in their latest effort by journalists and nongovernment groups to come up with a plausible estimate of Russian casualties, with an estimated 45,000 losses in just 2023, almost double the estimate for 2022. Demographers who spoke to Important Stories suggested that this estimate is only the minimum possible number of war deaths. (RM, 06.28.24, RFE/RL, 06.28.24)

• May was a particularly deadly month for the Russian army in Ukraine, with an average of more than 1,000 of its soldiers injured or killed each day, according to U.S., British and other Western intelligence agencies. But despite its losses, Russia is recruiting 25,000 to 30,000 new soldiers a month — roughly as many as are exiting the battlefield, U.S. officials said. (NYT, 06.27.24)
• Ukraine has accused Russia of stepping up frontline attacks using prohibited hazardous chemicals, including tear gas, the latest in a series of allegations of battlefield abuses. The Ukrainian military said on June 24 that it had registered 715 cases of the use of munitions containing "hazardous chemical compounds" by Russian forces in May. It said that figure represented an increase of 271 cases compared to the month before. (RFE/RL, 06.24.24)
• The proliferation of surveillance and strike drones means that almost any movement near the front line can be seen and targeted within minutes. To evade the threat, Ukraine and Russia are turning to a variety of small, quiet and maneuverable vehicles to deliver supplies, evacuate casualties and sometimes even send troops into battle, such as beach buggies and e-bikes. (WSJ, 06.22.24)
• Ukraine and Russia completed a large prisoner swap June 25, a rare deal between the nations at war since 2022 that was brokered by the United Arab Emirates. Ninety Ukrainian soldiers, captured during Russia’s invasion, have been returned home, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Telegram. Russia’s Defense Ministry revealed the same number of Russians released by Kyiv. The swap is the fifth such deal this year. (Bloomberg, 06.25.24)
• Zelenskyy has announced that the commander of the Joint Forces of the Ukrainian military, Yuriy Sodol, is to be replaced by Brig. Gen. Andriy Hnatov. The announcement followed criticism of Sodol's performance in Odesa by Ukrainian lawmaker Maryana Bezuhla. In addition, Bohdan Krotevych, the chief of staff of the National Guard’s Azov Brigade, submitted a statement to the State Bureau of Investigation with a request to investigate Sodol. (RFE/RL, 06.24.24)

• Russian law-enforcement and security agencies' investigators have begun offering to drop charges against suspects if they go fight in Ukraine, according to Kommersant. (RM, 06.22.24) Given the conviction rate in Russia, this is not surprising.

• A senior federal law enforcement official said June 27 that Russia has sent 10,000 recently naturalized citizens to fight in Ukraine amid Moscow’s manpower shortage. (MT/AFP, 06.27.24)
• Russia's Southern District Military Court in Rostov-on-Don on June 26 sentenced in absentia five foreign nationals to prison terms for joining Ukraine's armed forces fighting against Moscow’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 06.26.24)
• European countries, seeking to avoid escalation, have been cautious about publicly blaming Moscow, but privately security officials say Russia appears to be stepping up attacks on civilian and military sites and people in Europe connected with efforts to help Ukraine fend off invading Russian troops. (WSJ, 06.24.24)
• Elon Musk’s SpaceX has cooperated extensively with the U.S. military to stop Russia’s illicit use of its Starlink satellite communication terminals in Ukraine, a Pentagon official has assured a lawmaker. SpaceX “has been forward-leaning in providing information to support investigations and denying service” since Russia’s use of the terminals “became known several months ago,” Amanda Dory, acting undersecretary for policy, wrote Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren this month in a letter obtained by Bloomberg News. (Bloomberg, 06.25.24)

Military aid to Ukraine:

• A new U.S. policy allowing Ukraine to fire certain American weapons at Russian territory has led to a reduction in some Russian attacks but still restricts the range enough that it prevents Ukraine from hitting key airfields, two Ukrainian officials said. Those airfields are used by Russian jets that drop the deadly glide bombs now inflicting the greatest damage on military positions and civilians. The Ukrainian officials said the United States has restricted Ukraine to firing less than 100 kilometers, or about 62 miles, from the border. U.S. officials declined to specify the limitation but said the Ukrainians' assertion of less than 100 kilometers was incorrect. (WP, 06.21.24)
  • After bombs again rained on Kharkiv this past weekend, Ukraine's second-biggest city, Zelenskyy asked Western partners to permit the use of their weapons against air bases inside Russia. (NYT, 06.23.24)
• Trump said during the June 27 Biden-Trump presidential debate: “He’s [Biden] given $200 billion now or more to Ukraine. He’s given $200 billion. That’s a lot of money. I don’t think there’s ever been anything like it. Every time that Zelenskyy comes to this country, he walks away with $60 billion dollars, he’s the greatest salesman ever. And I’m not knocking him, I’m not knocking anything. I’m only saying, the money that we’re spending on this war, and we shouldn’t be spending, it should have never happened.” (CNN, 06.28.24)
• Trump said during the June 27 Biden-Trump presidential debate: “The European nations together have spent $100 billion or maybe more than that, less than us. Why doesn’t he call them so you got to put up your money like I did with NATO? I got them to put up hundreds of billions of dollars. The Secretary General of NATO said Trump did the most incredible job I’ve ever seen. You wouldn’t – they wouldn’t have any – they were going out of business. We were spending – almost 100 percent of the money was paid by us. He didn’t do that. He is getting all – you got to ask these people to put up the money. We’re over $100 billion more spent, and it has a bigger impact on them, because of location, because we have an ocean in between.” (CNN, 06.28.24)
• Biden said during the June 27 Biden-Trump presidential debate: “By the way, all that money we give Ukraine and from weapons we make here in the United States, we give them the weapons, not the money at this point. And our NATO allies have produced as much funding for Ukraine as we have. That’s why it’s – that’s why we’re strong.” (CNN, 06.28.24)
• Zelenskyy on June 27 signed security agreements with the European Union, Estonia, and Lithuania at the start of a two-day EU summit in Brussels. The security deal with the European Union reinforces the bloc’s support for Kyiv in nine areas of security and defense policy. A draft of the agreement obtained by RFE/RL says that the EU supports Ukraine’s reforms and EU accession path, noting that overall EU assistance to Ukraine amounts to almost 100 billion euros ($107 billion), including 35 billion euros in military support. (RFE/RL, 06.27.24)
• Poland will almost certainly sign a bilateral security agreement with Ukraine before July's NATO summit in Washington, the Polish prime minister said on June 28. A day earlier, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that before the NATO summit in Washington, which starts on July 9, talks will be held in Warsaw with the president of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 06.28.24)
• The U.S. and Israeli governments are in talks to send as many as eight Patriot batteries to Ukraine, people familiar with the discussions said June 27, a decision that could dramatically increase Kyiv’s air-defense capabilities. (WSJ, 06.27.24)
• Finland on June 28 approved a 24th package of military aid for Ukraine worth 159 million euros ($170 million), the Finnish Defense Ministry announced. The ministry did not specify what is included in the package, as well as when and in what way the aid will be delivered. (RFE/RL, 06.28.24)
• Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala says the first shipment of ammunition from an initiative launched by his country has reached Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 06.25.24)
• Serbia has been discreetly stepping up sales of ammunition to the West that ends up bolstering the defense of Ukraine—even though it is one of only two European countries not to join Western sanctions against Russia. (FT, 06.22.24)
• The lifting of U.S. restrictions does not apply to the use of Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS, some of which have a range of around 190 miles. Those longer-range weapons would be needed to hit air bases deep in Russian territory that are used by the bombers. Kyiv has been left to rely largely on its own expanding fleet of domestically produced drones to go after those bases. (NYT, 06.23.24)
• Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren announced on June 21 that the Netherlands and another unspecified country will supply Ukraine with a Patriot air defense system. (ISW, 06.22.24)
• Jordan Bardella, the far-right candidate to be France’s prime minister, said he was committed to providing military support for Ukraine, as long as it did not lead to escalation with Russia. The Rassemblement National party previously had strong pro-Russia sympathies but backed Kyiv following Moscow’s full-scale invasion. “My position changed. It will not change again,” Bardella said. However, he would not be drawn on the level of aid he would be willing to provide Ukraine next year; France’s bilateral security pact calls for €3 billion in military support this year. (FT, 06.26.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Sergei Shoigu, the ousted Russian defense minister, over allegations he committed war crimes in Ukraine. Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s army chief, are each accused of the war crime of directing attacks at civilian objects and causing excessive incidental harm to civilians in Ukraine, according to a statement by the ICC on June 25. (Bloomberg, 06.25.24)
  • The Kremlin on June 26 dismissed the arrest warrants issued by the ICC for ex-Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Army Chief Valery Gerasimov, calling them "absurd" and lacking in legal force. "We do not recognize the jurisdiction of this court, we are not a member of the relevant statute and therefore we do not recognize these warrants," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on June 26. "Moreover, we consider them quite absurd, just like the last two warrants which concerned the head of state and children's ombudsman," he added. (MT/AFP, 06.26.24)
• The EU has devised a legal workaround to sidestep Hungary’s veto on buying weapons for Ukraine with the profits generated by Russia’s frozen assets this year, in a move that could also clear the way for the G-7 to pay $50 billion to Kyiv. EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell told the Financial Times that since Hungary abstained from an earlier agreement to set aside the proceeds from Russia’s frozen assets, it “should not be part of the decision to use this money.” (FT, 06.24.24)
• EU ambassadors signed off sanctions against Belarus on June 26 including a ban on exports to and via Belarus of technologies that can be used for military purposes, liquefied natural gas and luxury items. (FT, 06.26.24)
• Brussels on June 24 sanctioned Russian pop singer Shaman over his role in promoting Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, applying restrictive measures against the performer that include an asset freeze and travel ban. (MT/AFP, 06.24.24)
• Music streaming service Spotify has removed the songs and profiles of pro-war Russian artists sanctioned by the West, the Sweden-based company told The Moscow Times on June 27. The removals affected the band Lyube and singers Grigory Leps, Oleg Gazmanov, Shaman and Polina Gagarina, among others. (MT/AFP, 06.28.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he’s drawing up a “comprehensive plan” for how Kyiv believes the war with Russia should end. “It is very important for us to show a plan to end the war that will be supported by the majority of the world,” the Ukrainian president said at a news conference in Kyiv alongside Slovenian President Natasa Pirc Musar on June 28. (Al Jazeera, 06.28.24)
• Trump said during the June 27 Biden-Trump presidential debate regarding Putin’s terms for ending the war in Ukraine: “No, they’re not acceptable. But look, this is a war that never should have started. … I will have that war settled between Putin and Zelenskyy as president-elect before I take office on Jan. 20. I’ll have that war settled. People being killed so needlessly, so stupidly, and I will get it settled and I’ll get it settled fast before I take office.” (CNN, 06.28.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his new Russian counterpart on June 25 for the first time, in a rare direct communication between the adversaries since Russia invaded Ukraine more than two years ago. Austin “emphasized the importance of maintaining lines of communication amid Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine” in his conversation with Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, Pentagon spokesman Major General Pat Ryder said in a briefing June 25. (Bloomberg, 06.25.24)
  • Russia's Defense Ministry said in a statement that Belousov and Austin had "exchanged views on the situation around Ukraine," noting the conversation took place "at the initiative of the American side." "Andrei Belousov pointed to the danger of further escalation of the situation in connection with the ongoing supply of U.S. weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine," it continued. "Other issues were also discussed." (MT/AFP, 06.26.24)
• Trump said during the June 27 Biden-Trump presidential debate: “He [Biden] was so bad with Afghanistan; it was such a horrible embarrassment, most embarrassing moment in the history of our country, that when Putin watched that and he saw the incompetence… When Putin saw that, he said, you know what, I think we’re going to go in and maybe take my—this was his dream. I talked to him about it, his dream. The difference is he never would have invaded Ukraine.” (CNN, 06.28.24)
• Biden said during the June 27 Biden-Trump presidential debate: “[T]hat’s exactly what Trump did to Putin, encouraged him, do whatever you want. And he went in. And listen to what he said when he went in, he was going to take Kyiv in five days, remember? Because it’s part of the old Soviet Union. That’s what he wanted, to re-establish Kyiv. And he in fact, didn’t do it at all. He didn’t – wasn’t able to get it done.” (CNN, 06.28.24)
• Biden said during the June 27 Biden-Trump presidential debate: “The fact is that Putin is a war criminal. He’s killed thousands and thousands of people. And he has made one thing clear, he wants to re-establish what was part of the Soviet Empire, not just a piece, he wants all of Ukraine. That’s what he wants. And then do you think he’ll stop there? Do you think he’ll stop when he – if he takes Ukraine? What do you think happens to Poland? What do you think of Belarus? What do you think happens to those NATO countries?” (CNN, 06.28.24)
• Trump said during the June 27 Biden-Trump presidential debate: “Russia – they took a lot of land from Bush. They took a lot of land from Obama and Biden. They took no land, nothing from Trump, nothing. He [Putin] knew not to do it. He’s not going to play games with me. He knew that. I got along with him very well, but he knew not to play games. … Russia would’ve never attacked [Ukraine] if I were president.” Trump said during the June 27 Biden-Trump presidential debate. (CNN, 06.28.24)
• Biden said during the June 27 Biden-Trump presidential debate: “They’re [Americans] capable of anything and they step up when they’re needed. And right now, we’re needed. We’re needed to protect the world because our own safety is at stake. And again, you want to have war, just let Putin go ahead and take Kyiv, make sure they move on, see what happens in Poland, Hungary, and other places along that border. Then you have a war.” (CNN, 06.28.24)
• Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov instructed the army’s General Staff to take “rapid response measures” against U.S. drones over the Black Sea as their increased activity raises the likelihood of incidents in airspace. (Bloomberg, 06.28.24)
• Russia protested to Japan on June 28 about Tokyo's plans to hold joint military exercises on the island of Hokkaido and accused Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of placing his country "on a path to dangerous escalation." (Reuters, 06.28.24)
• NATO will offer Ukraine a new headquarters in Germany to manage its military assistance at its upcoming 75th anniversary summit in Washington, officials said, an assurance of the alliance’s long-term commitment to the country’s security that has been heralded as a “bridge” to Kyiv’s eventual membership. The move is intended to send a strong signal of allied commitment, both to Kyiv and to Moscow, which hopes the West will grow tired of supporting the war. (NYT, 06.26.24)
• Beijing misjudged the impact on its relationship with Europe when it provided support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns told Bloomberg Television on June 27. “China is not exhibiting the behavior of a neutral country,” Burns said, referring to Beijing’s previous comments on its position. The U.S. has complained to Beijing “at great length, at very senior levels” over concerns that Chinese companies are providing Russia with dual-use technology that’s being used in the war, he added. (Bloomberg, 06.27.24)
• Poland and the Baltic states are urging the EU to strengthen its eastern borders, warning in a joint letter to Brussels of a "looming threat" from Russia and Belarus. In their joint letter, seen by AFP on June 27, the leaders of Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania urged the bloc to "spend more and coordinate on defense initiatives within the EU and with NATO." (MT/AFP, 06.27.24)
• NATO members on June 26 approved Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to lead the 32-country alliance after current Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s term ends on Sept. 30. (WSJ, 06.26.24)
• The U.S. has invited the foreign ministers of Israel and several Arab countries to a NATO summit in Washington next month, bringing tensions over the war in Gaza to the gathering. The U.S. has invited foreign ministers from as many as 31 countries who have partnerships with the alliance, including Japan, Australia and South Korea, partly in an effort to head off possible tensions over its invitation to Israel. Arab invitees include Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. (FT, 06.28.24)
• Ukraine formally started EU accession talks on June 25, more than a decade after pro-western demonstrations in Kyiv called for the country to join the bloc despite Russian threats and the invasions that followed. EU ministers met Ukrainian officials in Luxembourg to mark the beginning of a process that is set to take years. “Today is a historic day when we move to actual, real negotiations with the European Union regarding Ukraine’s membership,” Zelenskyy said on June 25. (FT, 06.25.24)
• Turkey has reached out to the BRICS club of major emerging nations that includes Russia and China, in a sign of growing frustration over a lack of progress in talks to join the European Union. “We have relations and are holding talks, negotiations with the BRICS countries and they’re also going through an evolution,” Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Haberturk television in an interview late June 24. “If the EU had the will to take a step forward, our perspective on certain issues could be different.” (Bloomberg, 06.25.24)
• The EU and NATO should rein in Prime Minister Robert Fico in his politically motivated pursuit of former government officials for their decision to send military aid to Ukraine, Slovakia’s former defense minister has said. Jaroslav Naď told FT that a criminal probe launched against him last week showed that Fico was “trying to raise the Russian flag in the EU.” The probe was unique in Europe for the lengths to which the Slovak premier was going to punish his political opponents for supporting Kyiv, Naď said. (FT, 06.26.24)
• Bulgarian President Rumen Radev will not lead or participate in the country’s delegation to the NATO summit in July, his press service said on June 27. The press service said Radev's refusal is due to differences over the country's positions on the war in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 06.27.24)
• Sir Keir Starmer has said Boris Johnson deserves “praise” because on “Ukraine he took a strong position.” The Labour leader said it was welcome that there had been “unity” between the government and the main opposition party in Britain over supporting Kyiv following Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Starmer told The Sun: “The only winner if there was a split in our politics here in the U.K. [on the Ukraine war] would be Putin. He wanted to see division in other countries.” (FT, 06.24.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• The Russian division of the Bank of China has suspended operations with Russian lenders sanctioned by the United States in order to avoid being hit with secondary sanctions, the Kommersant business newspaper reported June 24, citing industry insiders. (MT/AFP, 06.24.24)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Putin said on June 21: “Our plans include further development of the nuclear triad as a guarantee of strategic deterrence and maintaining the balance of power in the world.” (Kremlin.ru, 06.21.24)
• Biden said during the June 27 Biden-Trump presidential debate: “What happens if in fact you have Putin continue to go into NATO? We have an Article Five agreement, attack on one is attack on all. You want to start the nuclear war he keeps talking about. Go ahead. Let Putin go in and control Ukraine and then move on to Poland and other places. See what happens then.” (CNN, 06.28.24)

Counterterrorism:

• A deadly attack by gunmen in the majority Muslim region of Dagestan just months after the assault on a Moscow concert hall is raising the specter that Russia may be facing a wave of violence by religious extremists. On June 23, groups of gunmen launched seemingly coordinated attacks on synagogues and Orthodox churches in two cities in southern Russia’s Dagestan—Makhachkala, Dagestan’s capital, and Derbent. Though Russian officials called the violence acts of terrorism, they did not blame the attacks on any specific people or groups. No organization has claimed responsibility, and the motive remains unknown. (Bloomberg, 06.24.24, NYT, 06.24.24) For an early warning by Graham Allison and Michael Morell, see their June 10, 2024, article in FA, in which they argue that the U.S. faces “a serious threat of a terrorist attack in the months ahead,” indicated by, among other factors, the rising number of successful terrorist attacks, such as ISIS-K’s deadly raid of the concert hall in March 2024.
  • Russian lawmakers on June 24 quickly blamed external forces, including Ukraine and NATO, for terrorist attacks on June 23 that killed at least 20 people in Dagestan. Pro-Kremlin media appeared to play down a claim from Al Azaim Media, a Russian-language channel associated with the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, which posted a statement late June 23 that the attack was carried out in response to calls for attacks on behalf of the Islamic State organization, or ISIS. (WP, 06.25.24)
  • The number of deaths following the apparently coordinated attacks that targeted Christian and Jewish religious sites and a police station in Russia's Dagestan region on June 25 rose to 21. At least 45 people were also wounded in the attacks. (RFE/RL, 06.25.24)
  • “If [the suspected shooter] is connected with Shaitans, then their entire family should be punished. This family should know that they’re fully responsible,” Сhechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, speaking in his native Chechen, was quoted as saying during a meeting with regional security officials on June 25. “Whoever encroaches on [police officers] must understand that we’ll kill everyone in a blood feud — their father, brother, uncle,” he added. In a social media post shared the same day as the meeting with security officials, Kadyrov did not repeat his threats toward the relatives of the gunmen. But he did warn that the attackers and their accomplices would be “punished to the fullest extent of the law.” (MT/AFP, 06.26.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• U.S. authorities are offering a reward of up to $10 million for information on the whereabouts of Russian national Amin Stigal, who they say is connected to a sprawling cybersecurity attack on Ukrainian government computer systems ahead of Russia's invasion of the country. The planned attack, known as "WhisperGate," also targeted one of Ukraine's Central European ally nations and included attempted probes of U.S. government facilities in Maryland, according to an indictment unsealed June 26 morning. (WP, 06.27.24)
• Microsoft is informing additional customers that emails they exchanged with the technology giant were accessed by Russian hackers, a sign that a previously reported state-sponsored breach has had wider repercussions than initially thought. The company blamed the attack on a group, which it calls “Midnight Blizzard,” that U.S. and U.K. authorities have said is part of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service. (Bloomberg, 06.27.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia’s weekly crude exports fell by the most in more than three months in the seven days to June 23, with maintenance at key ports also trimming the less volatile four-week average. (Bloomberg, 06.25.24)
• Russia’s revenue from oil and gas sales this month is expected to reach 812 billion rubles ($9.4 billion), Reuters reported June 25, a reflection of how Moscow has managed to weather the storm of Western sanctions imposed after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The projection, based on Reuters’ own calculations, would mark a more than 50% year-on-year increase — up from 529 billion rubles in June 2023. It would also represent an increase of around 18 billion rubles compared earnings in May. (MT/AFP, 06.26.24)
• In the months that followed its invasion of Ukraine and punitive Western restrictions imposed in response, Russia amassed a shadow fleet to ferry its oil around the world. Now there is growing evidence Moscow has begun to do the same for liquefied natural gas. (Bloomberg, 06.27.24)
• The European Union placed sanctions on more than two dozen vessels, including 17 that hauled oil for Moscow. (Bloomberg, 06.24.24)
• U.S. sanctions on Russia’s new Arctic LNG-2 project have caused all foreign shareholders to suspend their participation, and “even currently operational projects may have issues producing spare parts of maintenance,” the industry group said in its latest World LNG Report published June 26. (Bloomberg, 06.26.24)
• Slovakia has moved to protect its main gas provider from legal claims on concerns that payments from European buyers of Russian gas could get seized after a court awarded damages to German utility Uniper SE for undelivered Gazprom supplies. (Bloomberg, 06.26.24)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• “I don’t think that you can expect the Russian president to set his alarm, wake up early morning and watch the debate [between Biden and Trump],” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov snarked. “This isn’t a main event for us.” According to him, the Kremlin will review media reports on this topic, but considers it an internal matter of the United States. (Politico, 06.28.24, Kommersant, 06.28.24)
• WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich appeared in a Russian court June 26 to stand trial in a secret proceeding on charges of espionage amid U.S. efforts to secure his release in a prisoner exchange. The trial at the city’s Sverdlovsk Regional Court is taking place behind closed doors and the next hearing was scheduled for Aug. 13, according to the Interfax news service, which cited the court. Gershkovich faces a possible sentence of up to 20 years in prison if he is found guilty of espionage. (FT, 06.26.24, Bloomberg, 06.26.24)
  • John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, on June 26 condemned the proceedings against Evan as a “sham trial.” He said Gershkovich “is simply being used as a bargaining chip,” along with another American held by Moscow, Paul Whelan. (WSJ, 06.26.24)
  • More than 10 U.S. citizens are currently being held in Russian jails and prisons, accused or convicted on charges ranging from drug possession and theft to treason and espionage. (RFE/RL, 06.26.24)
• The U.S. National Press Club -- a professional association of American journalists -- and 18 other media freedom groups have called on President Joe Biden in a public letter to press for the recognition of RFE/RL journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, who has been held in a Russian prison since last year, as a "wrongfully detained" person. (RFE/RL, 06.27.24)
• Robert Gilman, a U.S. citizen jailed in Russia for kicking a police officer two years ago appeared in court on June 27 to face new charges of allegedly punching prison guards and an investigator, Russian media reported. (MT/AFP, 06.28.24)
• Astronauts on board the International Space Station (ISS) briefly took shelter after the Russian Resurs P1 Earth observation satellite broke into pieces in Earth’s orbit, NASA said June 27. “NASA instructed crews aboard the space station to shelter in their respective spacecraft as a standard precautionary measure after it was informed of a satellite break-up at an altitude near the station’s earlier Wednesday,” the U.S. agency’s ISS account wrote on X (formerly Twitter). (MT/AFP, 06.27.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Since the beginning of Putin’s new term, five new departments have been created in the presidential administration, including to give institutional backing to Nikolai Patrushev (one new department) and Alexei Dyumin (two departments). While Patrushev has brought his former deputy Sergei Vakhrukov from the Security Council, Dyumin has to make do with deputies that are not “his” people—Viktor Yevtukhov and Vladimir Simonenko—as he has no team of his own. Dmitry Kozak and the departments subordinate to him remain untouched, despite being underutilized. (R.Politik, 06.24.24)

• The head of the North Caucasus republic of Dagestan on June 25 ordered all regional officials to undergo thorough vetting following attacks on religious sites in the region over the weekend, which resulted in the deaths of at least 21 people including law enforcement officers. (MT/AFP, 06.25.24)
• The Supreme Court of Dagestan said on June 25 that the former governor of the Sergokala district, Magomed Omarov, who was fired this week after a deadly terrorist attack over the weekend, was sentenced to 10 days in jail on a "minor hooliganism" charge. Omarov could face a terrorism charge over the fact that his two sons and his nephew allegedly participated in the terrorist attack on a synagogue and an Orthodox church in Makhachkala. (RFE/RL, 06.25.24)
• Leningrad siege survivor 83-year-old Lyudmila Vasilyeva is now a hopeful for governor of St. Petersburg. She aims to challenge the incumbent, Alexander Beglov, who is running from the United Russia party. Calling for the end of the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine, she campaigns with the slogan “St. Petersburg — the city of peace.” As a self-nominated candidate, Vasilyeva must prove she has the support of 2% of St. Petersburg residents — nearly 80,000 signatures — by June 28. Additionally, by law, she needs the support of 155 municipal deputies from at least 80 municipal entities in St. Petersburg. (MT/AFP, 06.27.24)

• Russia has blocked online access to several dozen major European news outlets, in what the Russian foreign ministry said was a response to EU measures introduced last month against three Russian state media outlets. The foreign ministry published a list of 81 European news outlets whose websites would no longer be freely accessible from inside Russia, including Politico, Germany’s Der Spiegel, Spain’s El País, The Irish Times, Italy’s La Repubblica, and France’s Le Monde. (FT, 06.25.24)

  • EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has condemned Russia’s decision to block 81 European media outlets in 25 European Union countries. "This decision further restricts access to free and independent information and expands the already severe media censorship in Russia," Borrell said in a statement on June 26. (RFE/RL, 06.26.24)

• Authorities in the Ural Mountains region of Perm will give out lump sum payments for every newborn child of a soldier fighting in Moscow’s war against Ukraine, regional governor Dmitry Makhonin said June 26, citing high public demand for social support measures. He said the payments will amount to 128,000 rubles ($1,500) for each child born after Jan. 1, 2024. (MT/AFP, 06.27.24)
• Russia is planning to ratchet up eightfold a fee on divorces as Moscow seeks more revenue to fund Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, while also discouraging people from ending marriage. (Bloomberg, 06.28.24)
• Russia’s lower-house of parliament on June 26 passed a bill that would allow for annual increases to the amount working retirees receive from their state pensions as part of Putin’s promise to boost social spending during his fifth term in the Kremlin. In 2016, Putin suspended the yearly indexation of pensions for working retirees — which kept the payments in line with consumer prices. But earlier this month he called on the United Russia ruling party and government to bring back that policy since Russia “has the resources to begin solving the issue in the people’s interests.” (MT/AFP, 06.26.24)
• Russia’s FSB falsified evidence against 15-year-old Arseniy Turbin who was jailed last week on terrorism charges, the independent news outlet Mediazona reported June 27, citing case materials. He was accused of trying to join the Freedom of Russia Legion, a militia made up of Russian nationals fighting on the side of Ukraine. Russia’s human rights group Memorial recognized Turbin as a political prisoner, making him the youngest activist to receive the designation. (MT/AFP, 06.27.24)
• A court in St. Petersburg on June 26 rejected an appeal filed by lawyers of well-known opposition activist and Soviet-era dissident Alexander Skobov against his pretrial arrest. The 66-year-old activist, who has condemned Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, was arrested and placed in pretrial detention in April on a charge of justifying of terrorism. (RFE/RL, 06.26.24)
• Russia’s state financial watchdog Rosfinmonitoring has added journalist Artyom Kriger to its list of “terrorists and extremists,” his employer SOTAvision reported on June 27. Kriger, 23, was arrested last week on charges related to the “extremism” case against late Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, according to SOTAvision, an independent news outlet. (MT/AFP, 06.27.24)
• An arrest warrant has been issued for Akhmed Zakayev, a former top official of the short-lived independent Chechen Republic of Ichkeria who resides in London, on charges of the "creation of a terrorist grouping in the interests of Ukraine's armed forces, and the justification of terrorism." Along with Zakayev, Russia added to its wanted list and issued an arrest warrant for Murad Yusupov, who is a leader from Chechnya of the Separate Special Battalion within the International Legion of Ukraine's armed forces. (RFE/RL, 06.25.24)
• A Russian military court on June 21 sentenced Ukrainian citizen Kristina Lyubashenko to 12 years in prison for releasing blue-white-blue balloons — the colors of opposition to the Ukraine offensive — over Moscow last year. She was found guilty of taking part in a "terrorist" group and spreading "fake information" about the Russian Armed Forces, the state TASS news agency reported. (MT/AFP, 06.22.24)
• A military court in Russia on June 27 sentenced former Justice Ministry official Maria Mamedova, who openly condemned Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, to 14 years in prison in absentia. The court also ordered her to pay a fine of 600,000 rubles ($6,850). She was found guilty of "facilitating terrorism." (RFE/RL, 06.27.24)
• A Moscow court on June 27 issued an arrest warrant for journalist Farida Kurbangaleyeva on charges of justifying terrorism and the distribution of false information about Russia's military. Last week, Russian authorities added Kurbangaleyeva to their wanted list and the registry of terrorists and extremists. (RFE/RL, 06.27.24)
• Prominent indigenous rights activist Fayil Alsynov, whose jailing earlier this year sparked mass protests in Russia’s republic of Bashkortostan, was beaten while serving a prison sentence in the Perm region, his lawyer said June 24. (MT/AFP, 06.24.24)
• A court in Russia's North Caucasus region of Chechnya again rejected a request by Zarema Musayeva, the imprisoned mother of three self-exiled outspoken Chechen opposition activists, for an early release. (RFE/RL, 06.28.24)
• Yulia Alyoshina, Russia’s first openly transgender politician, who last month made the surprise announcement that she had returned to her gender assigned at birth, said in an interview published on June 25 that she underwent a detransition after receiving threats that she would be sent to a psychiatric hospital. (MT/AFP, 06.25.24)
• One of the most influential Russian poets, Bakhyt Kenzheev, died in New York at the age of 73, his colleagues wrote on social media on June 26. Kenzheev grew up in Moscow and in the early 1970s, amid heavy Soviet censorship, co-founded the Moscow Time underground poetry group along with other noted poets—Alexei Tsvetkov, Alexander Soprovsky, and Sergei Gandlevsky. (RFE/RL, 06.26.24)
• Google has added 12 languages of ethnic minority groups living in Russia as part of a major new update to its translation service announced on June 27. Google Translate will now include Bashkir, Chechen, Udmurt, Yakut and Crimean Tatar among others. (MT/AFP, 06.28.24)

Defense and aerospace:

•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Police in Russia’s North Caucasus republic of Dagestan have arrested a man after he made false claims on June 25 that a shooting in the region’s capital city was imminent, coming just days after armed attacks on local religious sites left nearly two dozen people dead. (MT/AFP, 06.26.24)
• A Moscow court on June 24 sentenced Konstantin Starchukov to four years in prison for throwing a Molotov cocktail at Lenin's Mausoleum in June 2023. The Tver district court found him guilty of "hooliganism using a weapon." (RFE/RL, 06.24.24)
• At least six people died in a major fire that broke out June 24 at a Moscow region research center sanctioned by the West, regional authorities said June 25. Moscow region Gov.Andrei Vorobyov said the fire engulfed the Platan research institute building in the town of Fryazino. Platan, a producer of defense electronics, has been under war-related U.S. sanctions since June 2022.(MT/AFP, 06.24.24)
  • Two people have been arrested in connection with the deadly fire Platan, Russian investigators said June 26. Investigators named faulty wiring among the likely causes. The Moscow branch of Russia’s Investigative Committee said it detained the deputy director of the property management company, as well as a representative of the building’s deceased owner on charges of “providing unsafe services that led to people’s deaths.” (MT/AFP, 06.26.24)
• Russian Railways said on June 27 that two people were killed and one remained missing after nine of 14 passenger cars of the Vorkuta-Novorossiisk train derailed a day earlier in Russia's Komi region. The Health Ministry said 40 people were injured, while the railway had said the number of injured was 46. In all, 215 passengers and Russian Railways workers were aboard the train when the accident occurred. (RFE/RL, 06.27.24)
• Floods caused by heavy rains have cut off access to 10 villages in Russia's Far East region of Primorye and are wreaking havoc with transportation in and around several other towns and settlements, the region's administration said on June 24. (RFE/RL, 06.24.24)
• Emergency officials in the Siberian region of Sakha-Yakutia said on June 27 that wildfires had spread to 600,000 hectares of land in the region, making it the largest territory in Russia hit by wildfires at the moment. In all, 170 sites in the region have been hit by wildfires since early May, destroying 2.5 million hectares of forest, which is 1 percent of all forest in Sakha-Yakutia. (RFE/RL, 06.27.24)
• Russian prosecutors announced June 27 that they have asked a court to recognize crimes committed by Nazi Germany and its then-collaborator Finland in the northwestern city of Petrozavodsk as a “genocide.” The Prosecutor General’s Office said archival documents and witness testimonies indicated that over 8,000 civilians and 18,000 Soviet prisoners of war were killed in more than 100 concentration camps built during the 1941-44 occupation of the Soviet region of Karelia. (MT/AFP, 06.27.24)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• The Kremlin said June 28 that the outlook for EU-Russia ties was bad after EU leaders nominated Ursula von der Leyen for another term as European Commission president and picked Prime Minister Kaja Kallas of Estonia as the next EU foreign policy chief. European Union leaders on June 27 picked three senior politicians to head up the bloc’s institutions for the next five years, signaling commitment to Ukraine and a need for stability amid electoral upsets in Europe and, potentially, the United States. António Costa, until recently the prime minister of Portugal, was also selected as the president of the European Council. (Reuters, 06.28.24, NYT, 06.27.24)
• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to visit Russia for the first time since the start of the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine, a trip that follows his return to office for a third term and underscores the strong ties between the two countries. The Kremlin’s foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, announced Modi’s trip on June 25, saying the exact dates of the visit will be confirmed later. Tass news service reported earlier that the Indian leader was set to spend two days in the country in early July. (Bloomberg, 06.25.24)
• Authorities in Moscow have condemned the June 26 attempted military coup in Bolivia and warned against "destructive foreign interference" in the South American country. (MT/AFP, 06.27.24)

Ukraine:

• Ukrainian authorities face accusations of using the draft as a political weapon. “They can always threaten to ship you off to the front lines,” said an investigative reporter. (Politico, 06.25.24)
• Police in Kyiv carried out a search of the former deputy head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko on June 27 amid reports he was linked to leaking information on a large-scale corruption case by the country’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), Tymoshenko said on Telegram. (Novaya Gazeta, 06.28.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is poised to become the EU's top diplomat. The nomination of the EU foreign policy chief requires a "qualified majority" within the European Council. That vote is expected during an EU leaders' summit on June 27-28 in Brussels. (RFE/RL, 06.26.24)
• European Union leaders said that Georgia’s refusal to reverse its crackdown on civil society has prompted a “de facto” halt to its efforts to join the bloc. The move follows an adoption of a bill widely known as the “foreign agent” law that sparked massive anti-government protests. (Bloomberg, 06.27.24)
• Law enforcement authorities in the breakaway Georgian territory of Abkhazia have launched a search for gunmen behind a deadly shootout on the region’s border with Russia, state media reported late June 23. (MT/AFP, 06.24.24)
• In an exclusive interview with Current Time's Iryna Romaliyska, former Moldovan President Igor Dodon refused to say that Russia was to blame for the conflict in Ukraine, and he was unable to back up his claim that Russian-speakers in Moldova face discrimination. Dodon is expected to challenge pro-European President Maia Sandu in Moldova's upcoming presidential election in October. (RFE/RL, 06.26.24)
• The Osh regional court in southern Kyrgyzstan told RFE/RL on June 24 that a lower court had sentenced a local man, whose identity was not disclosed, to five years in prison two weeks earlier for joining Russian troops fighting in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 06.24.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Ukrainian military in the public domain as a Ukrainian military work.