3 Things to Know

1. Donald Trump has multiple reasons to be content with the outcome of the June 24–25 NATO summit in the Hague. For one, the allies (with the exception of Spain), which already rely on U.S. for almost two-thirds of their arms imports, committed to “invest 5% of GDP annually on core defense requirements as well as defense-and security-related spending by 2035.” Moreover, the allies also agreed to water down the event’s declaration, removing references to Ukraine’s NATO aspirations among other things. For instance, the communique of the alliance’s 2024 summit in Washington, DC, had the following language: “As Ukraine continues this vital work, we will continue to support it on its irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership.” In contrast, the 2025 summit’s declaration had no such language, reflecting the Trump team’s reluctance to let Ukraine advance towards NATO membership. Moreover, while the 2024 summit’s document promised that “recommendations on NATO’s strategic approach to Russia” will be developed for the 2025 summit, the latter’s communique contains no such recommendations.
2. Trump will consider approving his presidency’s first delivery of interceptors for Patriot air defense systems, which remain Ukraine’s essentially sole reliable mean of shooting down Russian ballistic missiles, to this country. This follows from remarks, which he made to the press after meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky on the final day of the June 24–25 NATO summit in the Hague. Even if Ukraine has to pay for the deliveries, the latter would represent an important development, given that the Trump administration has until now displayed no willingness to provide fresh military aid to Kyiv, and assistance approved during the Biden era is running out, according to Washington Post. Prior to the meeting with the Ukrainian leader, Trump described him as a “nice guy.” In contrast, the U.S. leader described Vladimir Putin as “misguided,” but still vowed to have a talk with the Russian leader to "see if we can get it ended.” Also, prior to the meeting with Zelensky Trump told a closed session with his fellow NATO leaders that something had to be done about Ukraine as the situation there was "totally out of control,” according to Bloomberg.
3. Cessation of missile strikes by Israel and U.S. on one side and Iran on the other begs the question: who has won? Leaders of all the three countries have declared victory, but we won’t know which of these declarations is closest to reality until plausible evidence emerges in the public domain on how tangible and lasting has been the damage done to Iran’s purported nuclear weapons program by the combination of U.S. and Israeli attacks. What we can already be relatively confident about, given the existing public evidence, is that Iran’s program has suffered a serious setback. We also know that if the leaders of Israel and U.S. did indeed attempt to attain a change of regime in Iran in the course of the armed conflict, which is something they either openly called for or hinted at, respectively, then their attempts fell flat. That combination (setback of Iran’s nuclear program and absence of a regime change in that country) is actually in the interest of at least one external key stakeholder, Russia. First, having a nuclear armed neighbor has never been in Russia’s interest. Second, it is in Russia’s interest that whoever rules in Teheran is friendly to Moscow (though Iran’s friendliness towards Russia may have decreased in the aftermath of the conflict, given Moscow, which Teheran has described as an “ally,” has been accused of doing little to help Iran during the conflict). One cannot know what is on Putin’s mind. Chances are, however, that the Russian leader views this dual outcome as a “win” that advances Russia’s long-term interests.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Professor Graham T. Allison, asked about increasing incentives for nuclear proliferation at WEF 2025: “It’s not natural. Why wouldn’t South Korea, Iran, or Ukraine arm themselves with nuclear weapons for protection?” Allison reminded the audience that it was precisely this fear a world of 90 nuclear states that haunted U.S. President John F. Kennedy after the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. That moment sparked a series of arms control initiatives that helped stabilize global security for decades. But now, Allison warns, that stability is showing signs of erosion. “We’ve started to take it all for granted as if non-proliferation is self-sustaining, It’s not. It’s unraveling quietly at the edges.” He added. (Astroawani.com, 06.26.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• North Korea may deploy additional troops to Russia as early as July to support Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, according to South Korean lawmakers who had been briefed by the country’s National Intelligence Service. (Meduza, 06.26.26)
• Russia plans to increase the number of university spaces reserved for students from North Korea, the head of Russia’s state-funded cultural diplomacy agency Rossotrudnichestvo said. (MT/AFP, 06.23.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

Sunday, June 22, 2025

• Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, wrote in reference to the U.S. 06.22.25 strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities via Telegram: “This whole mess between Israel and Iran is obviously not harmful to our affairs. Most Americans don’t even know where the dying Ukraine is, and the Trump team, which is not at all eager to spend money on a conflict that is not theirs, is now very stressed. (RM, 06.22.25)
• Russia’s foreign ministry “decisively condemned” the U.S. strikes on Iran, which it had started a “new round of escalation that risks further undermining regional and global security”. “The irresponsible decision to subject the territory of a sovereign state to missile and bomb strikes… grossly violates international law, the UN Charter, and UN Security Council resolutions,” it said in a statement. (Financial Times, 06.22.25)
• Konstantin Kosachev, Federation Council deputy speaker, wrote on Telegram: “Why don't the Westerners bomb the four countries that are not participating in the non-proliferation regime and the corresponding Treaty?... Because these four countries, unlike Iraq, Libya and Iran, have actually created nuclear weapons. Hence the inevitable conclusion (as one might assume) for all ‘threshold’ countries: if your plans do not include getting bombed by the West—become strong, arm yourself, go forward to the point of creating weapons of mass destruction… A monstrous mistake of the Trump regime. The pursuit of the Nobel Peace Prize is taking on extremely dangerous and ugly forms.” (RM, 06.22.25)
• Leonid Slutsky, State Duma Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman, wrote on Telegram: "The consequences of increasing the degree of escalation threatens to go beyond the region. Washington understands the inevitability of Tehran's response. All this takes the spiral of confrontation to a new level and increases the risks of World War III.” (RM, 06.22.25)

Monday, June 23, 2025

• Vladimir Putin, Russian president, said in reference to the U.S. 06.22.25 strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities:
• Said while hosting Foreign Minister of Iran Abbas Araghchi: “The completely unprovoked act of aggression against Iran is without foundation or justification. Russia has long-standing, strong and trustworthy relations with Iran, and we are committed to supporting the Iranian people through our continued efforts… Your visit provides us with an important opportunity to discuss these sensitive issues in depth and to explore ways we might work together to navigate the current situation.” (Kremlin.ru, 06.23.25)
  • During the meeting Iran’s foreign minister has thanked Putin for Moscow’s “strong” stance against Israeli strikes on Iran, calling it “totally in line with international regulations.” During their meeting in Moscow Abbas Araghchi said the Middle East was in a “crucial situation” and that “the level of tensions is escalating” due to U.S. and Israeli military actions. He added that relations between Iran and Russia had become “strategic” in recent years. (Financial Times, 06.23.25)
• Said at a meeting with graduates of Russian military academies: “The current international situation is changing dynamically. We see how the situation in the Middle East has sharply worsened. Extra-regional powers are also being drawn into the conflict. All this is bringing the world to a very dangerous point.” (Kremlin.ru, 06.23.25)
• Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, in reference to the U.S. 06.22.25 strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities:
• Said that Putin has no plans to call Trump after the U.S. strikes. "Not yet," he said when asked whether a telephone conversation between the leaders of the two countries is being planned. "But if necessary, such contacts can now be organized quite quickly." (RM, 06.22.25)
• Sidestepped a question on whether Russia would be willing to offer arms to Iran. "It depends on what Iran needs," he said. Peskov said the situation remained "very tense" but did not comment on whether Iran had sought military assistance. Peskov responded to criticism that Russia has not done enough to support Iran. “There are many who would like to pour fuel on the fire and damage the partnership between Moscow and Tehran,” Peskov said. “Russia has indeed supported Iran through the clear position it has taken,” he added. (Meduza, 06.24.25, The Washington Post, 06.23.25)
• Sergei Ryabkov, deputy foreign minister, in reference to the U.S. 06.22.25 strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities:
• Said that Iran’s partnership with Moscow is “unbreakable” and Iran had “the full right to defend itself.” (RIA Novosti/Financial Times, 06.23.25)
• Said Iran had “the full right to defend itself. (Financial Times, 06.24.25)
• When asked whether Iran had requested military assistance, said: “We are working with Iran in various areas, and it would be irresponsible to disclose some details of this cooperation.” (Interfax, 06.23.25)
• In a statement, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry sided with Trump's decision to strike Iran, saying that a "decisive policy of 'peace through strength'" would deprive the Iranian regime of its ability to spread terrorism and destabilization—and that a similar strategy would aid Ukraine, a country that gave up its nuclear arsenal in 1994 in exchange for security guarantees. (Washington Post, 06.23.25)
• China said the United States has hurt its reputation as a global power and its diplomatic standing by attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities while it was engaged in talks with Tehran. “Iran is harmed, but also harmed is U.S. credibility—as a country and as a party to any international negotiations,” Fu Cong, China’s ambassador to the United Nations, told China’s state broadcaster on Sunday. (New York Times, 06.23.25)

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

• Russia welcomed the U.S.-brokered ceasefire, even as Israel accused Tehran of violating the deal. Peskov told reporters that Russia hoped that there would be a “sustainable ceasefire.” (Financial Times, 06.24.25)
• NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte said at a June 24 press conference: “Iran is heavily involved in the fight of Russia against Ukraine by, for example, their drone deliveries, which are killing innocent Ukrainians every day, in cities, in communities, without any respect for life. So, there is also a close connection between Iran, of course, North Korea, China, Belarus, but also, Iran with Russia when it comes to the war in Ukraine. So, no doubt it will emerge in the discussions. (NATO, 06.24.25)
• NATO General Secretary Rutte said at a June 24 press conference: “Moscow continues to wage war against Ukraine with the support of North Korea, Iran, and China as well as Belarus… we see Russia’s deadly terror from the skies over Ukraine every day, and we must be able to defend ourselves from such attacks. (NATO, 06.24.25)
• Russia will continue developing bilateral interaction with Iran and cooperation on international platforms, Russian Security Council Deputy Secretary Alexander Venediktov said at a meeting with Iranian Ambassador to China Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli in Beijing. (TASS, 06.24.25)

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

• Preliminary intelligence assessments provided to European governments indicate that Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile remains largely intact following U.S. strikes on its main nuclear sites, two officials have said. The people said the intelligence suggested that Iran’s stockpile of 408kg of uranium enriched close to weapons-grade levels was not concentrated in Fordow, one of its two main enrichment sites, at the time of last weekend’s attack. Iranian officials have suggested the enriched uranium stockpile was moved before the U.S. bombing of the plant, which came after days of Israeli strikes on the country. The findings call into question US President Donald Trump’s assertion that the bombing had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program.(Financial Times, 06.26.26)

Friday, June 27, 2025

• Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has called for an investigation into whether Azerbaijan’s airspace was used by Israeli drones as they flew missions to attack Iran during their recent conflict. (RFE/RL, 06.27.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• On June 21 Kyiv received the bodies of at least 20 Russian soldiers instead of Ukrainian ones during recent exchanges of war dead with Moscow, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, accusing Russia of "not checking" who they were sending. (RFE/RL, 06.21.25)
• On June 26 Ukraine and Russia exchanged captured soldiers. (MT/AFP, 06.26.26)
• Vladimir Putin told a press conference in Belarus on June 27 after the Eurasian Union summit that Russia is ready to hand over another 3,000 bodies of deceased military personnel to Ukraine, in addition to the 6,000 already transferred. (Rybar, 06.27.25)¹
• Over the past six months, judges with Russia’s 2nd Western District Military Court have handed down sentences to184 soldiers captured during the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ operation in the Kursk region, according to a tally by Mediazona. (Meduza, 06.26.26)
• The White House has recommended terminating U.S. funding for nearly two dozen programs that conduct war crimes and accountability work globally, including in Myanmar, Syria and on alleged Russian atrocities in Ukraine, according to three U.S. sources familiar with the matter and internal government documents reviewed by Reuters. (Reuters, 06.26.25)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on June 25 signed an accord with the Council of Europe to establish a special tribunal to try top officials responsible for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 06.25.26)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past week, Russian forces gained 36 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about 1½ Manhattan islands), nearly half the rate of advance as compared to the previous week’s gain, according to the 06.25.25 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. As of June 24, Russia controlled 44,391 square miles of Ukrainian territory, which equals 19% of that Ukraine. (RM, 06.27.25) 

Saturday, June 21, 2025

• Speaking at an annual economic conference in St. Petersburg, Russia on June 20, Mr. Putin did not rule out Russian forces taking the city of Sumy. A Russian offensive in northern Ukraine has put its forces about 12 miles outside that city's center. (New York Times, 06.21.25)
• Ukraine has accumulated $43 billion for its defense industry so far this year between local funding and aid from allies, using it to ramp up the production and purchase of drones, artillery and other weaponry, said Zelenskiy. (Bloomberg, 06.21.25)

Sunday, June 22, 2025

• On Sunday, June 22, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that Ukrainian Defense Forces liberated Andriivka. (RM, 06.27.25)
• The death toll from a June 22 Russian missile strike on Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region has risen to 22, officials said. (RFE/RL, 06.26.26)
• Ukraine’s SBU chief Vasyl Maliuk revealed to journalists new details of "Operation Spiderweb" in a two-hour conversation Sunday about the plan to attack Russia's air bases that crippled several long-range bombers and rewrote the rules for drone warfare. "We started doing this in November 2023, because then the enemy once again began to massively shell peaceful Ukrainian cities," Maliuk said. "Our task was to destroy missile carriers." (Washington Post, 06.24.25)
• Russia shows no signs it plans to wind down its war in Ukraine, with an estimated 695,000 troops deployed across an expanded front line and another 121,000 in strategic reserve, according to Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. The Russian military is able to mobilize an average of about 9,000 new troops per month, Syrskyi told reporters. He also vowed to increase the "scale and depth" of strikes on Russia. He said the strikes were proving "effective" and that Kyiv would only attack military targets. (MT/AFP, 06.22.25, (Bloomberg, 06.22.25)

Monday, June 23, 2025

• Russian forces launched a ballistic missile strike on the city of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi in Ukraine’s Odesa region. Two people were killed and at least 12 others were injured. (Meduza, 06.23.25)
• At least nine people were killed and several injured in a massive overnight Russian missile and drone attack on the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said residential areas, hospitals and sports facilities were hit. At least six of those who died were in a high-rise in the capital, Kyiv's Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko said, adding 19 others were injured in the city. (RFE 06.23.25)

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

• On Tuesday, June 24, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces captured Andriivka and Kostiantynopil, (RM, 06.27.25)
• Russian missile and drone strikes killed at least 10 people and wounded dozens more in Ukraine on Tuesday. (MT/AFP, 06.24.25)
• Lieutenant General Alexus Grynkewich, nominated by the United States to command NATO forces in Europe, believes Ukraine can win its war against Russia. "I think any time your own homeland is threatened, you fight with a tenacity that's difficult for us to conceive of when we… if we haven't found ourselves in that same situation,” he said. (Ukrainska Pravda, 06.24.25)

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

• In remarks on June 25 Donald Trump lamented a “horrible situation” in Ukraine, claiming the country had “lost 7,000 soldiers in the past week” and that “life is disappearing” in the face of Russian attacks. (BBC, 06.25.25)
• On June 25 U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Russia has suffered over 80,000 killed-in-action (KIA) since January 2025. (ISW, 06.25.26/Politico, 06.25.25)
• Ukraine’s state budget expenditures on the defense and security sector is to be increased by UAH 412 billion ($9.9 billion) in 2025, according to Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. (RBC.ua, 06.25.26)
• According to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, Russia is not just replacing missiles lost in its current war with Ukraine—it is stockpiling for a prolonged conflict. “They are preparing for a long war,” a senior official from Ukraine’s HUR told the Kyiv Independent. “According to our data, Russia is building up a stockpile of missiles of various types.” (Kyiv Independent, 06.25.26)

Thursday, June 26, 2025

• The advance of Russian forces in the border areas of Ukraine’s Sumy region has been stopped, according to Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. “Based on the results of May and June, we can say that the wave of attempts at a ‘summer offensive’ launched by the enemy from Russian territory is fizzling out—just like last year’s attempted offensive in the Kharkiv region,” Syrskyi said on Thursday. (Meduza, 06.26.25)
• Since the start of the war, Ukraine has built an arms industry with an output capacity of over $35 billion. However, recent estimates suggest that only around $12 billion, according to Ukrainian officials, worth of orders have been placed, meaning there is a huge amount of excess capacity. (Foreign Policy, 06.26.25)

Friday, June 27, 2025

• On Friday, June 27, 2025 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces captured Novosilka, Zaporizhzhia, Odradne, (RM, 06.27.25)
• On June 27 A Russian strike killed five people and wounded 23 others in Ukraine’s eastern Dnipropetrovsk region, where Moscow has intensified deadly attacks in recent days, regional officials said. The attack hit the town of Samar, just outside the regional capital of Dnipro (MT/AFP, 06.27.25)
• Ukrainian military officials reported intense fighting on June 27, with Russian troops advancing along 11 directions. A third of all clashes occurred near Pokrovsk, where Moscow’s forces attacked near 11 settlements. The General Staff noted 69 combat engagements by midafternoon, underscoring sustained pressure across the frontline. (Korrespondent.net, 06.27.25)
• Ukrainian forces attacked the Marinovka airfield in Russia’s Volgograd region with long-range drones in the early hours of June 27, striking four Su-34 aircraft and a technical maintenance facility, according to Ukraine's military leadership. (Meduza, 06.27.25)
• Russia increased combat drone production by almost 17% in May, a think tank reported, sharply accelerating output as President Vladimir Putin continued to reject calls for a ceasefire in his war in Ukraine. The surge follows the president’s public demand in April for defense manufacturers to speed up drone supplies. While Russian forces received 1.5 million drones of different types in 2024, it was “not enough” to meet battlefield requirements, Putin told officials. (Bloomberg, 06.27.25)
• Russian forces have seized control of a valuable lithium deposit in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, depriving the country of a critical asset that could have helped support a new economic partnership with the United States. The deposit, just outside the Shevchenko village in western Donetsk, was captured in recent days. Though relatively small—it covers only 100 acres—the deposit was seen by industry analysts as one of Ukraine’s most valuable because of its rich concentration of lithium (New York Times, 06.27.25)

Military aid to Ukraine 

• Speaking to reporters in the Netherlands following the conclusion of the annual NATO summit in the Hague, U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States would try to get Ukraine some more air defense systems to protect against deadly Russian attacks but would not commit to approving more aid for the embattled nation. “We're going to see if we can make some [Patriots] available,” Trump said on June 24 when asked by a reporter if he would sell air defense systems to Ukraine. “They're very hard to get. We need them too. We were supplying them to Israel.” However, Trump was less categorical when asked about further U.S. military aid for Ukraine. “We'll see what happens,” Trump said when asked about American defense assistance for Ukraine, which is expected to run out in the coming months. (RFE/RL, 06.25.26, Meduza, 06.25.26)
• NATO officials said this week that European allies have mobilized pledges of nearly $40 billion in military aid for Ukraine so far this year. Last year, according to NATO, about $58 billion in military aid was sent to Ukraine, with nearly 60% coming from European members and Canada. (Washington Post, 06.24.25)
• The Ukrainian leader met with Britain’s King Charles III and Prime Minister Keir Starmer to press for more military support for his embattled nation. (New York Times, 06.23.25)
  • The UK will send 350 advanced ASRAAM air defense missiles, built in Britain and adapted in record time for ground launch, using £70m of interest raised through the government’s extraordinary revenue acceleration (ERA) scheme. The missiles will be deployed through UK-supplied Raven systems—five more of which are en route to Ukraine, taking the total to 13. (Guardian, 06.25.26)
• Zelenskyy met with French President Emmanuel Macron. During the meeting, they discussed the possibility of expanding Ukraine's air fleet with additional Mirage fighter jets, as well as joint production and investment in interceptor drones. (RBC.ua, 06.25.26)
• Pro-Palestinian activists in Belgium caused €1 million worth of damage to military equipment intended for Ukraine. (Istories, 06.27.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• President Donald Trump is bucking Europe’s pleas to ratchet up sanctions on Russia, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday, saying the U.S. still wants room to negotiate a peace deal. “If we did what everybody here wants us to do, and that is come in and crush them with more sanctions, we probably lose our ability to talk to them about the ceasefire and then who’s talking to them?” Rubio said. (Politico, 06.25.26)
• The European Union will soon adopt its 18th sanctions package against Russia, described by French President Emmanuel Macron as the most sweeping since Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The measures target Russian oil imports—including refined products from third countries—and aim to lower the price cap on crude. (Korrespondent.net, 06.27.25)
  • Slovakia is withholding support for the European Union’s latest raft of sanctions against Moscow unless its concerns about energy security are taken into account. (Bloomberg, 06.27.25)
• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron both appealed to Donald Trump to agree to implement more sanctions on Russia during the closed-doors NATO session, according to several people present. (Financial Times, 06.25.26)
• President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Russia is “ready” to part with its $300 billion in frozen assets in the West if doing so would help accelerate the shift away from Western-dominated financial systems even though freezing them was an act of robbery. He said Western appropriation of the funds would trigger an “irreversible trend toward the regionalization of payment systems,” which he claimed would ultimately work to the benefit of the global economy. “I think it is probably worth paying for,” Putin said, adding that Moscow would continue efforts to strengthen its own financial settlement systems in cooperation with “friendly states.” (MT/AFP, VZ.ru, 06.27.25)
• Vladimir Putin told a press conference in Belarus when commenting on Western sanctions on Russia: "What’s happening in Western countries? They keep declaring us dead. They’ll croak themselves soon, but they keep declaring us dead²” (Vzglyad, 06.27.25)
• Companies in China, Taiwan, and Belarus—countries that didn’t join Western sanctions against Moscow over its war in Ukraine—reportedly supplied the strategic Russian missile factory in Votkinsk with critical manufacturing equipment funneled through private Russian intermediaries. (Kyiv Independent, 06.25.26)
• Russia has continued to import aircraft parts from Boeing and Airbus despite EU and U.S. sanctions imposed over the invasion of Ukraine, Finnish public broadcaster Yle reported Thursday. Yle’s investigation, which analyzed Russian customs data, found that Russia has imported at least 1 billion euros’ worth of aircraft parts since 2022, despite ambitious plans for a domestic airline parts industry. (MT/AFP, 06.26.26)
• Sberbank, which is disconnected from the international financial information transfer system SWIFT, has the ability to send rubles with conversion into euros to foreign accounts in European banks. (Meduza, 06.27.25)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

• On June 25 U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met on the sidelines of the NATO summit in The Hague on Wednesday. The conversation, which took place after the two-day summit’s official planned events, lasted about 40 minutes. The leaders did not issue a joint statement afterward. Before the meeting, both leaders stated they planned to hold it. In particular, before today’s start of the direct session of the NATO summit, Trump called Zelenskyy “a nice guy” and said that they would discuss Ukraine. (Meduza, 06.25.26, (RBC.ua, 06.25.26)
  • Writing on Telegram after the meeting, Zelensky called it “lengthy and substantive,” saying the presidents discussed “all of the truly important issues.” He thanked Trump and the United States. “We talked about how to achieve a ceasefire and a true peace, and we talked about how to protect our people,” he added, promising to provide more details later. (Meduza, 06.25.26)
  • Shortly after speaking to Zelensky, Trump held an end-of-summit press conference. Though his statement to the media lasted 15 minutes, he mentioned the war in Ukraine only in passing. Later, responding to a question about the meeting with Zelensky, Trump sounded satisfied, saying his Ukrainian counterpart “couldn’t have been nicer” and that he’s “fighting a brave battle.” Trump also said that he plans to speak to Russian President Vladimir Putin soon to “see if we can get [the war] ended.” (Meduza, 06.25.26)
• On June 25 President Trump said his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin was the "more difficult" leader to convince of ending the war in Ukraine. "It's more difficult than people would have any idea. Vladimir Putin has been more difficult," Trump said. "Vladimir Putin really has to end that war." “I consider [Putin] a person that has, I think, been misguided. I'm very surprised. Actually, I thought we would have had that [war] settled easy,” Trump said. Trump added that he was going to speak with Putin to "see if we can get it ended" but didn't provide a date for the conversation. (Wall Street Journal, 06.25.26, RFE/RL, 06.25.26)
  • Bloomberg, citing an informed source, reported that in a private meeting with NATO leaders, Trump called the situation in Ukraine “completely out of control” and said that “something must be done.” According to the source, the meeting attendees took this as a “positive sign” that Trump is still interested in brokering a ceasefire. (Meduza, 06.25.26)
• On June 25 U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Russia is trying to "achieve on the battlefield what [Russia is] demanding at the negotiating table" including "control over certain territories," but noted that this objective will be more difficult to achieve than Russia currently believes. He said Russia has "not shown a willingness to move forward" in peace negotiations. (ISW, 06.25.26, Politico, 06.25.25)
• The date of the new round of talks between Ukraine and Russia will be determined when the humanitarian agreements reached in Istanbul on June 2 are fulfilled. This was stated by Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov at a briefing on Wednesday, June 25. (Korrespondent.net, 06.25.26)

Friday, June 27, 2025

• Vladimir Putin told a press conference in Belarus on June 27 after the Eurasian Union summit: “The memorandums of Russia and Ukraine are completely opposite, but negotiations are held precisely to seek ways to bridge the gap. Exchanges are important… We are ready for the third round of talks. The subject of discussion should be the memorandums.” (Meduza, 06.27.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Sunday, June 22, 2025

• Spain obtained an exemption from NATO’s ambitious defense spending target of 5% of GDP. (Bloomberg, 06.22.25)

Monday, June 23, 2025

• Leaders from Poland and the three Baltic nations called on the European Union to step up financial support for plans to reinforce their borders, the first line of defense on the bloc’s eastern flank. (Bloomberg, 06.23.25)
• The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s collective defense principle wouldn’t necessarily trigger an immediate armed response in the event of a “small attack” by Russia against a member like Estonia, Admiral Rob Bauer, former Chair of the NATO Military Committee, told the newspaper Die Welt in a June 23 interview. (Meduza, 06.23.25)

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

• NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte said at a June 24 press conference: “Of course, the most significant and direct threat facing this Alliance remains the Russian Federation… There's widespread agreement within NATO that at this moment, today, if Russia would attack us, our reaction will be devastating, and the Russians know this.” He also said “it would be very, very unwise by Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, or his crony in Belarus, in Minsk, to try anything against us. But obviously, we have to be sure that in 3, 5, 7 years from now, we are as strong as we are today.”(NATO, 06.24.25)
  • Rutte has praised Donald Trump for making Europe “pay in a BIG way” on increased defense spending, in a private message that the U.S. president shared on his social media platform. “Donald, you have driven us to a really, really important moment for America and Europe, and the world,” Rutte wrote ahead of a NATO summit that begins on Tuesday, referencing the U.S. president’s demand that all allies commit to raising defense spending to 5% of GDP. (Financial Times, 06.24.25)
• UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is pledging spend 5% of British economic output on security by 2035, embracing an ambitious NATO target sought by President Donald Trump without. (Bloomberg, 06.23.25)
• Germany announced a budget that would increase its military spending to 3.5% of its economic output by 2026. (New York Times, 06.24.25)
• European officials tracking the ramp up of Vladimir Putin’s military are wrestling with a threat that would have been scarcely plausible a few years ago: war with Russia. Bloomberg Economics estimates that the direct cost of destruction in the warzone, higher energy prices as supply from Russia is cut off, and a selloff in financial markets could cut global output by 1.3% or $1.5 trillion in the first year, almost as much as the impact of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 06.24.25)

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

• The Hague Summit Declaration issued by NATO Heads of State and Government on 06.25.25 said: “United in the face of profound security threats and challenges, in particular the long- term threat posed by Russia to Euro-Atlantic security and the persistent threat of terrorism, Allies commit to invest 5% of GDP annually on core defense requirements as well as defense-and security-related spending by 2035 to ensure our individual and collective obligations.” “Allies reaffirm their enduring sovereign commitments to provide support to Ukraine, whose security contributes to ours, and, to this end, will include direct contributions towards Ukraine’s defense and its defense industry when calculating Allies’ defense spending,” the declaration said. (NATO.int, 06.25.25) The declaration contains 1 reference to Russia and 2 references to Ukraine. In comparison, the alliance’s 2024 Washington Summit Declaration contains 43 references to Russia/Russian and 64 references to Ukraine/Ukrainian, including a concluding section, entitled “Pledge of Long-Term Security Assistance for Ukraine.” The 2024 declaration, which is significantly longer than the 2025 declaration (the 2024 contains more than 5360 words while the 2025 document contains some 460 words), proclaimed “we will continue to support it on its irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership,” The 2025 declaration contains no references to Ukraine’s membership aspirations though NATO SG Mark Rutte vowed in his oral remarks during the 2025 summit that the alliance will “continue to support Ukraine on its irreversible path to Nato membership.” In addition the 2024 summit’s declaration contained the following promise: “For our next Summit, we will develop recommendations on NATO’s strategic approach to Russia, taking into account the changing security environment.” No such approach is mentioned in the 2025 summit’s declaration.
• While attending the NATO summit President Donald Trump expressed support for NATO, praising its moves to bolster defense spending as the pact’s leaders look to secure a U.S. commitment to the alliance. “We’re with them all the way,” Trump said at the NATO summit at The Hague as he met with the alliance’s secretary general, Mark Rutte. “I mean, if you take a look at the numbers, we’re with them, and they’re very big things to announce today,” Trump said about NATO member’s plans to formalize increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP. (Bloomberg, 06.25.26)
  • Speaking to reporters in the Netherlands following the conclusion of the annual NATO summit Trump called the summit outcome "a monumental win for the United States” and “a big win for Western civilization.” The U.S. president said NATO members are now set to boost defense spending by $1 trillion by 2035. (RFE/RL, 06.25.26)
  • A reporter asked Trump during a press conference at the NATO summit on June 25 whether it is possible that Putin has territorial ambitions beyond Ukraine, and Trump responded that "it's possible." (ISW, 06.25.26)
  • “I stand with it, that’s why I’m here,” Trump said Wednesday at a meeting with Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof when asked about the Article 5, which requires members to defend each other against attack. “If I didn’t stand with it, I wouldn’t be here.” Asked if he would defend countries, Trump responded: “Well, what did I just say? Yes. Of course. Why would I be here?” (Bloomberg, 06.25.26)
  • Mark Rutte has said that NATO’s mutual defense clause is “absolutely clear,” after Donald Trump questioned the “definition” of its application on the eve of the summit. “Article 5 is absolutely clear,” NATO’s secretary-general told reporters. “And we have always said we would never go into details as to when Article 5 would be triggered.” (Financial Times, 06.25.26)
    • Asked about NATO membership for Ukraine, Mark Rutte said: Our resounding message to [Ukraine’s President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people is that Ukraine has our continued support, including with over €35 billion pledged so far this year, with more to follow. Our aim is to keep Ukraine in the fight today so it can enjoy a lasting peace in the future. We stand by Ukraine in its pursuit of peace and will continue to support Ukraine on its irreversible path to NATO membership. (Financial Times, 06.25.26)
• Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said she is confident that Rome would be able to fulfil its new NATO commitment to spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2035, given the wide array of security related expenses that will qualify. (Financial Times, 06.25.26)
• Europe could spend as much as €14 trillion ($16 trillion) on defense and related infrastructure over the next decade, creating a major opportunity for private capital, according to buyout firm Carlyle Group Inc. (Bloomberg, 06.25.26)
• NATO has assessed that Russia can sustain its current level of military operations in Ukraine through at least 2027, BBC reported, citing an anonymous senior official from the defense alliance. The NATO official also acknowledged that Ukrainian armed forces continue to face manpower shortages, something Putin has referenced in his speeches. (MT/AFP, 06.25.26)

Thursday, June 26, 2025

• Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said his nation remains “calm and collected” amid reports of Russian troop buildup near the NATO member’s border. “Russia emptied four brigades out of the Leningrad district to Ukraine, most of them actually killed,” Stubb said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “The reality is that when this war ends, Russia will start building up its soldiers on our border. But this is nothing new, it’s not problematic.“ (Bloomberg, 06.26.26)
• EU leaders met in Brussels yesterday to discuss how to respond to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, with a looming deadline on July 9. But they also touched upon other measures to preserve the international trade system. European Commission president von der Leyen proposed that Brussels team up with the 11 other global economies of the CPTPP to form an institution to replace the WTO, which is struggling to contain global tensions. (Financial Times,06.27.25)

Friday, June 27, 2025

• This could have been a momentous week in Ukraine’s long-term wish of joining the European Union and NATO. In the end, it wasn't. As leaders of the two institutions met for key summits in Brussels and The Hague respectively, Kyiv’s eventual membership of both should have been a centerpiece. Instead, Ukraine is no closer to joining either—and the many obstacles in the war-torn country's path to the Euro-Atlantic community were on full display. (RFE/RL,06.27.25)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Chinese President Xi Jinping will not attend the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro in July, the South China Morning Post reported, citing officials familiar with the matter. According to the newspaper, Beijing informed the Brazilian government that the Chinese delegation to the summit will be led by Prime Minister Li Qiang. (TASS, 06.27.25)
• Putin will take part in the upcoming BRICS summit, which will be hosted by Brazil from July 6–7, but he hasn’t yet chosen the format of his participation, Kremlin Aide Yury Ushakov told TASS. "The format hasn’t been decided yet," he said. (TASS, 06.21.25)
• China hosted defense ministers from Iran and Russia for a meeting of Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s defense chiefs in its eastern seaside city of Qingdao. Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun said: "As momentous changes of the century accelerate, unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise.” Relations between Russia and China are stronger than they have ever been, thanks in large part to the personal friendship between the leaders of the two countries, Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov said at the meeting. (France24, 06.26.25, TASS, 06.27.25)
• A Chinese television journalist was injured in a Ukrainian drone attack in Russia’s Kursk region, according to Governor Alexander Khinshtein. Lu Yuguang, a 63-year-old correspondent for China’s Phoenix Television, was reportedly in Kursk to gather material for a story about local civilians who have come under Ukrainian drone attacks. (Meduza, 06.26.25)
• Complete cancellation of visas between Russia and China is not planned but conditions will be softened for group trips, department director at the Russian Ministry of Economic Development Nikita Kondratyev told TASS. (TASS, 06.24.25)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms

• Speaking at a meeting with graduates of Russian military academies, Vladimir Putin said: “We will pay special attention here to our nuclear triad. Thus, modern Yars systems will be delivered to the Strategic Missile Forces, and the aviation component of the strategic nuclear forces will be replenished with modernized Tu-160M ​​missile carriers this year. In addition, serial production of the latest medium-range missile system Oreshnik, which has proven itself very well in combat conditions, is being launched. And the Navy will include new ships and submarines equipped with the latest generation of high-precision weapons.” (Kremlin.ru, 06.23.25)
• Dmitry Medvedev has responded to Donald Trump, tweeting an image of text that reads in part: “Russia has no intention of supplying nuclear weapons to Iran” and “we definitely shouldn’t be arguing over who has more nukes.” On Monday, June 23, U.S. President Donald Trump responded to Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev’s warning from a day earlier that “a number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads” after American attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites. President Trump responded with a series of rhetorical questions: “Did I hear Former President Medvedev, from Russia, casually throwing around the “N word” (Nuclear!), and saying that he and other Countries would supply Nuclear Warheads to Iran? Did he really say that or, is it just a figment of my imagination?” (Meduza, 06.23.25)
  • On June 22 Medvedev wrote on Telegram: What did the Americans achieve with their night strike on three points in Iran? The critical infrastructure of the nuclear cycle, apparently, was not damaged or was damaged only slightly. The enrichment of nuclear materials, and now we can say directly—and the future production of nuclear weapons—will continue. A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their nuclear weapons.” (RM, 06.23.25)
• Britain said it would buy 12 F-35A stealth fighter-bombers, enabling the country’s military to once again have the capacity to deliver nuclear weapons from the air, in an announcement timed to this week’s NATO summit in The Hague. (New York Times, 06.25.26)
• NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte said at a June 24 press conference: China will have “A thousand nuclear warheads by 2030 and we have to be sure. and make sure that we can defend ourselves against them.” (NATO, 06.24.25)

Counterterrorism:

• Russian law enforcement authorities on Monday announced the completion of their investigation into last year’s deadly concert hall attack near Moscow, claiming it was carried out “in the interests” of Ukraine. The Islamic State took responsibility for the March 22, 2024, mass shooting, in which four gunmen killed 149 people and wounded 609 others at Crocus City Hall. (MT/AFP, 06.23.25)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• A cyberattack that caused disruption at hospitals in London last year contributed to the death of a patient, health officials have confirmed for the first time. The incident occurred after a Russian hacking gang in June 2024 targeted Synnovis, a contractor that provides blood testing, transfusion and other pathology services to the UK’s National Health Service, or NHS. The breach triggered a major crisis at health-care providers predominantly in the southeast of the city. (Bloomberg, 06.26.26)
• A new cryptocurrency token designed to allow cross-border payments in spite of western sanctions on Russia, launched by a fugitive Moldovan oligarch and a Russian defense sector bank, has moved some $9.3bn on a dedicated crypto exchange in just four months since it was launched, the FT has found. Billed as the first stablecoin pegged to the Russian ruble, the A7A5 token was officially launched in Kyrgyzstan in February and aims to facilitate large-scale financial flows into and out of Russia, which have been severely complicated by western restrictions. (Financial Times, 06.25.26)
• Russia plans to launch a state-run messaging application that will host government services, competing with existing platforms like WhatsApp and Telegram. The platform will be developed on the basis of the messenger built into VK, a Russian social media service, and will facilitate document storage, messaging, banking, and other public and commercial services. (Bloomberg, 06.26.26)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia is open to another output hike at the next OPEC+ meeting if the alliance deems such an increase to be necessary, according to a person familiar with the nation’s position. Moscow’s partnership with OPEC+ is very important and Russia will seek a solution that’s acceptable for the whole group at the meeting on July 6, the person said on condition of anonymity as the deliberations are not public. The eight OPEC+ members involved in the talks, which have been rolling back their production cuts in monthly increments, may consider another hike for August, the person said. (Bloomberg, 06.26.26)
  • Steps taken by the OPEC+ group to boost oil supplies have proved astute, given developments in the Middle East conflict, according to Rosneft PJSC Chief Executive Officer Igor Sechin. (Bloomberg, 06.21.25)
• Russian exports oil seaborne shipments of refined fuels totaled 2 million barrels a day in the first 20 days in June, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. That’s the lowest monthly tally since October and an 8% decline compared to both the previous month and last year in June. Flows from Baltic ports recorded the sharpest drop of more than 15% from May levels.(Bloomberg, 06.27.25)
• Vessels near the Strait of Hormuz have been broadcasting unusual messages concerning nationality in a bid to avoid being attacked as doubts linger over the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, according to maritime risk analytics firm Windward and ship tracking data on Thursday. Fifty-five vessels transmitted 101 atypical messages across the Gulf and Red Sea from June 12–24, Windward said, including "China owned" and "Russian crude," in the hope of preventing attacks (Reuters, 06.27.25)
• The war between Israel and Iran has revived Chinese leaders’ interest in the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline that would carry Russian natural gas to China, according to people close to Beijing’s decision-making, potentially jump-starting a project that has been stalled for years. More than 90% of Iran’s oil exports now go to China, analysts say, even though the U.S. has sanctions designed to prevent Iran from selling its oil abroad. (Wall Street Journal, 06.25.25)
• A sanctioned liquefied natural gas tanker appears to be heading toward a Russian facility, a move that would challenge Western authorities who have so far avoided imposing restrictions on the export plant. The Iris, an LNG tanker previously known as North Sky and sanctioned by the U.S. last year, is signaling its destination as Sabetta in northern Siberia, home to the Yamal LNG export terminal, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The vessel is expected to arrive by June 26. (Bloomberg, 06.25.26)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• On June 27 Vladimir Putin told a press conference in Belarus: “I respect Donald Trump. Thanks to him, relations between Russia and the U.S. are beginning to stabilize. A meeting with him is quite possible. We highly appreciate his efforts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. We believe he is sincerely committed to this.” (Meduza, 06.27.25)
  • Vladimir Putin told a press conference in Belarus on June 27 after the Eurasian Union summit with regard to the U.S.-Russian relations: "Working contacts have been established between foreign policy agencies and intelligence services." (Rybar, 06.27.25)
• The United States does not appear ready to fully normalize diplomatic relations with Russia, Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov said Wednesday, citing stalled efforts to resolve embassy-related disputes. “I can assume the American side, despite some progress, is not yet ready to say goodbye to the difficulties that have been created around the work of [our] diplomatic missions,” Ushakov told reporters. (MT/AFP, 06.25.26)
  • Ushakov also blamed a venue dispute for the cancellation of a planned third round of talks with the United States last week, which officials in Moscow previously said would be focused on restoring the operations of each side’s diplomatic missions. “There was an agreement to meet at a specific location. For certain reasons, that location didn’t suit [U.S. officials],” he said. (MT, 06.23.25)
• U.S. Ambassador to Russia Lynne Tracy will leave her post after two and a half years in Moscow, the embassy announced Friday. “As I leave Russia, I know my colleagues at the embassy will continue to work to improve our relations and maintain ties with the Russian people,” Tracy said in a message posted on the U.S. Embassy in Moscow’s Telegram channel on Friday. (MT/AFP, 06.27.25)
• A federal grand jury in Boston has indicted a Harvard Medical School scientist from Russia, who spent nearly four months in immigration detention after she failed to declare frog embryos at Boston Logan International Airport, on three felony charges, including smuggling, prosecutors said. Kseniia Petrova, 31, was detained at Logan International Airport in Boston in February. Criminal charges followed in May when the U.S. attorney’s office filed smuggling charges. (AP/Boston Globe, 06.25.25)
• A court in the Russian city of Perm has sentenced photographer Grigory Skvortsov to 16 years in a high-security prison on treason charges, according to a Telegram channel run by his supporters. Skvortsov was arrested in late November 2023. The human rights group Department One reports that he was accused of giving an American journalist a copy of historian Dmitry Yurkov’s book Secret Soviet Bunkers: Special Urban Fortifications from the 1930s–1960s, which was publicly available for purchase in Russia at the time. (Meduza, 06.26.26)
• Federal prosecutors on Thursday unveiled charges against 11 Eastern Europeans they accused of running a sophisticated, $10.6 billion Medicare fraud scheme in what appears to be one of the largest such busts in government history. According to an indictment unsealed in federal court in New York, the group based in Russia and elsewhere submitted billions of dollars in false health care claims using personal information stolen from more than 1 million Americans in all 50 states. (Washington Post, 06.27.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Russia’s industrial sector, fueled by the defense sector, grew by 1.6% in May and 1.8% over the last year after accounting for seasonal factors, state statistics service Rosstat has reported. (MT/AFP, 06.27.25)
• Russian factories hired 47,000 foreign workers in 2024 as the industrial sector sought to stave off deepening labor shortages, Vedomosti reported, citing Labor Ministry data. According to the data, the number of foreign workers recruited to work at factories exceeded the government-set quota of 40,500 workers by 16%. These workers predominantly came from China, India, Turkey, Serbia and other countries whose citizens need visas to travel to Russia. (MT/AFP, 06.23.25)
• One in three Russian companies say their business conditions have worsened over the past six months, a new survey said, marking the highest level of pessimism since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Thirty-four percent of firms surveyed by consulting firm Yakov & Partners' CEO Barometer reported a deterioration in their situation up from just 16% in May 2024 and 24% in December 2022. (MT/AFP, 06.25.26)
• Vladimir Putin told a press conference in Belarus on June 27 after the Eurasian Union summit that "Salaries in Russia have increased by 4% in real terms since the beginning of this year." (Rybar, 06.27.25)
• Russian companies are increasingly cutting or eliminating employee bonuses and incentive payments as they seek to reduce costs, a new report has revealed. he report, compiled by the HeadHunter recruiting service and the pension fund NPF Evolyutsiya, indicates almost one-third of workers who previously received bonuses reported either a reduction or total loss of bonuses over the last year, a symptom of the slowing Russian economy. The survey found that 20% of respondents noted a decrease in bonus amounts, while 9% said payments had stopped entirely. (MT/AFP, 06.27.25)
• One estimate showed that the corporate loan portfolio by Russian banks in the first two months of 2025 decreased by 1.5 trillion rubles ($19 billion) before stabilizing. Current and former Russian banking officials have privately described the situation in Russia as dangerous and said there is a growing risk of a debt crisis spreading through the country’s financial sector in the next year if circumstances don’t improve. (Bloomberg, 06.26.26)
• Putin signed a long-delayed law aimed at protecting the Russian language, though independent observers say the legislation has been significantly watered down from its original version. (MT/AFP, 06.24.25)
• After a slight increase in May, the share of Russians who believe the country is moving in the right direction dipped by 3 percentage points in June, settling at 70%. Meanwhile, approval of President Putin’s performance has remained stable over the past six months, holding steady at 86%. When asked to name the politicians they trust most (with multiple responses allowed), 48% of respondents expressed trust in Vladimir Putin in June 2025—a slight decline from May, when his trust level stood at 50%. Other trusted figures included Mikhail Mishustin (19%) and Sergey Lavrov (16%). (Levada, 06.27.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• Russia spends 13.5 trillion rubles or 6.3% of GDP on military expenditures. This was stated by Vladimir Putin during a press conference following his visit to Belarus. "Yes, our current expenditures are not small. It’s 6.3% of GDP. Is this a lot or a little? I believe it’s a lot. Of course, this is one of the challenges, including for the budget, that we must address. And we are handling it with dignity. We are fighting for a healthy macroeconomy," TASS quotes the Russian president as saying. Putin noted that, unlike European countries, which are increasing military spending, Russia plans to reduce defense expenditures. (Meduza, 06.27.25)
• Russia’s State Duma has passed legislation in its third reading allowing stateless individuals to sign contracts for service in the Russian Armed Forces. (Meduza, 06.24.25)
• Putin has signed a decree giving military commanders in combat zones the authority to arrest soldiers for infractions without a court ruling. (MT/AFP, 06.26.26)
• Russia will soon teach high school students how to build and fly drones, which have become a key weapon in the war between Moscow and Kyiv. (RFE/RL, 06.22.25)
• Russia is locked in a “fight for the future” against its Western adversaries in the race to develop new technologies and innovations, Sergei Chemezov, head of the state defense conglomerate Rostec, said Tuesday. (MT/AFP, 06.24.25)
• See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• Russian state prosecutors are seeking a nearly 15-year prison sentence for former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on bribery and embezzlement charges, the Vedomosti business newspaper reported Monday. (MT/AFP, 06.23.25)
• State prosecutors filed a civil lawsuit against senior Dagestani official Magomed-Sultan Magomedov earlier this week as part of an ongoing investigation into alleged illegal privatization. Magomedov, who has served as Dagestan’s state secretary since 2021, was reportedly arrested on Wednesday in Makhachkala following searches at dozens of properties linked to him and his family. (MT/AFP, 06.26.26)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin will not travel to Brazil for the upcoming BRICS summit due to the International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant for his arrest, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Wednesday. According to Ushakov, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will attend the summit, which is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro on July 6–7. Putin will take part remotely via video call, Ushakov said. (Meduza, 06.26.26)
• Serbia is halting all ammunition exports following a decision by President Aleksandar Vucic as the Balkan country faces challenges over exports to Israel and Moscow's suspicions that ammunition made in Serbia has made its way to Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 06.26.26)
• Moscow summoned German Ambassador Alexander Graf Lambsdorff on Friday to protest what it called Berlin’s “persecution” of Russian journalists, state media reported. (MT/AFP, 06.27.25)
• A confidential legal report accusing the Wagner mercenary group of committing war crimes by sharing footage of apparent atrocities in Africa has been submitted to the International Criminal Court (ICC), the Associated Press reported Monday. (MT/AFP, 06.23.25)
• Russia’s delivery of S-400 air defense systems to India will take place three years later than planned, The Times of India reported, citing anonymous sources familiar with Defense Minister Andrei Belousov's meeting with his Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh on Thursday. (MT/AFP, 06.267.25)

Ukraine:

• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced that the majority of participants in the consultative referendum held among the country's residents voted against supporting Ukraine's accession to the EU. "2 million 168 thousand of our compatriots voted not to take on the risks of Ukraine's accession to the EU. This is 95% of all valid votes," Orban wrote on his Facebook page. (Meduza, 06.26.26)
• Ukraine’s anti-corruption authorities suspect a sitting deputy prime minister of receiving a $345,000 kickback in a property development scheme, they said on Monday, the latest investigation into a high-level Ukrainian official over alleged graft. Following the allegations Oleksii Chernyshov told the Kyiv Independent he was “absolutely not involved” and that he would not be resigning from his post. Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) have filed a motion with the High Anti-Corruption Court seeking to impose bail and suspend Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Chernyshov from office, NABU's press service reported on June 27 (Guardian, 06.24.25, Kyiv Independent, 06.27.25)
• Ukrainian law enforcement officers told a battalion commander of a military unit from Donetsk Oblast that he is suspected of having organized the illegal payment of "combat" allowances to his subordinates totaling almost UAH 1 million. This was reported by the State Bureau of Investigation on Friday, June 27. (Korrespondent.net, 06.27.25)
• Ukraine’s anti-corruption institutions uncovered a group suspected of embezzling over ₴15 million ($370,000) from the state railway company Ukrzaliznytsia through public procurement fraud, National Anti-Corruption Bureau reported on June 27. (NV.ua, 06.27.25)
• Ukraine’s High Anti-Corruption Court has issued more than a dozen corruption convictions against MPs. (Transparency, June 2025)
• On June 20, operatives of the Department of Strategic Investigations in the Zhytomyr region and investigators of the Investigative Department of the regional police detained an official for receiving $2,000 in illegal benefits. The mayor of Berdichev, Serhiy Orlyuk, was charged with extortion and bribery, and the court arrested him with the right to post bail. (Ukrainska Pravda, 06.24.25)
• Maksym Krym, Maria Vdovychenko and Andriy Leshchenko were appointed to the positions of deputy prosecutors general of Ukraine. The corresponding orders were signed by Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko, the press service of the Prosecutor General's Office reports. (Korrespondent.net, 06.25.26)
• Ukraine’s security service is holding classes at high schools to alert teenagers of Russian efforts to recruit them. (New York Times, 06.21.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Keith Kellogg, a retired lieutenant general and Mr. Trump’s envoy for Russia and Ukraine, held talks with Mr. Lukashenko in Minsk, Belarus’s capital, the first meeting between a senior White House official and the Belarusian strongman in more than five years. There was no immediate sign that Washington would ease sanctions on Belarus. But John Coale, Mr. Kellogg’s deputy, said the visit to Minsk had secured the release of 14 political prisoners from Belarusian jails. (New York Times, 06.21.25)
• An Armenian archbishop who led massive anti-government protests last year and at least 14 of his supporters were detained on Wednesday, with law-enforcement authorities accusing them of plotting “terrorist acts” in a bid to seize power. The Investigative Committee of Armenia claimed that Archbishop Bagrat Galstanian began preparations for a violent overthrow of the government last November with the members of his opposition-backed movement. (RFE/RL, 06.26.26)
  • The Kremlin said Wednesday that it considers the reported coup attempt in Armenia an “internal matter” but expressed hope that the South Caucasus nation would maintain friendly relations with Moscow. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan earlier in the day said security forces had foiled a coup plot involving what he called a “criminal-oligarchic clergy,” amid his escalating standoff with the influential Apostolic Church. (MT/AFP, 06.25.26)
• In a move widely interpreted as Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev consolidating his hold on power, he has appointed his daughter, Saida Mirziyoyeva, as head of the presidential administration—a role regarded as the second most powerful position in the country. (BNE, 06.25.26)
• The Kremlin continues efforts to augment Russian combat power by setting conditions to subsume forces from Russia's Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) allies under a Russian military command. The Russian State Duma ratified on June 24 a protocol that allows CSTO states to send their troops to other CSTO states' territory in the event of armed conflict, threats, crisis situations, and exercises; to respond to the consequences of emergencies; and to provide humanitarian aid. (ISW, 05.24.26)
• On June 26 Vladimir Putin addressed the plenary session of the Eurasian Economic Forum, held at the BelExpo National Exhibition Centre in Minsk to state that the EAEU’s aggregate GDP has risen from U.S.$1.6 trillion to U.S.$2.6 trillion, according to the Kremlin. On June 27 he attended the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council at the Palace of Independence in Minsk. (RM, 06.27.35)

Quotable and notable:

• No significant developments.

Footnotes

1. Rybar is a RF MoD-affiliated Telegram channel run by an ex-spokesman for this Russian government agency,
2. The Russian original is “Что в странах Запада происходит? Они все время нас хоронят. Сами скоро сдохнут там, а нас хоронят,”

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert.