4 Things to Know

1. Based on data from Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group, the past four weeks (May 26–June 23, 2026) saw Russian forces make a net gain of 12 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about half the size of Manhattan Island). In comparison, during the previous four-week period (April 28–May 26, 2026), Russia made a net gain of 21 square miles, according to RM’s analysis of DeepState’s data reported in the latest issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine war report card. In contrast, the Institute for the Study of War data indicates that in the past four weeks (May 26–June 23, 2026) Russian forces endured a net loss of 20 square miles of Ukrainian territory. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin claimed this week that his troops are close to taking control of the Donetsk region city of Kostyantynivka, while Russian MoD claimed on June 24 that its forces were advancing in the south-western parts of this key city, which forms part of eastern Ukraine’s so-called fortress belt.¹ Ukraine’s DeepState acknowledged “the successes of the Muscovites” in Kostyantynivka in a June 22 update, and its June 25 map showed Russian forces attacking this city in what appeared to be a pincer movement from the south and northeast. “Kostyantynivka is now on the brink,” a Kyiv Independent reporter declared in a video explainer posted on X on June 23. In spite of these developments, Donald Trump has said this week that Volodymyr Zelensky is doing “pretty well,” “holding his own” in the war, while his Deputy Secretary of State Jeremy Levin even claimed that “Ukraine is winning the war at this moment.”
2. Ukraine’s dramatic drone strikes on Moscow mask a key gap, according to NYT. “However effective its drone arsenal may be, Ukraine still lacks the weapon that has long underpinned Russia’s most devastating air attacks: ballistic missiles,” this newspaper reported. Ukraine’s Fire Point is developing FP‑7 and FP‑9 missiles, but domestic ballistic capability will take “A lot of time. A lot of resources,” Olena Kryzhanivska of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute told NYT. Ukraine is also lacking US-made Patriot interceptors to shoot down Russia’s ballistic missile, NYT reported earlier this month.²
3. Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal warned that the coming winter in Ukraine “will be very difficult” again, saying Kyiv and international partners are racing to restore 10 GW of damaged generation and add about 3 GW of new, decentralized power facilities , according to RBC.ua. Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s former Foreign Minister and a Belfer Center senior fellow, has sounded alarms about the upcoming winter, warning earlier this month that “In November, we'll probably return to discussing how to survive another winter.”  
4. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserted this week that there was “no agreement in Alaska” on Ukraine during the August 2025 Trump–Putin summit. "There was a proposal in Alaska, but there was no agreement in Alaska. If there had ​been an agreement, we would have had an end of the war," Rubio said, according to Reuters. Rubio also noted that the Russian proposal included Russian control of Donbas among other demands, according to ISW. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s remarks reported by Reuters this week, the 2025 summit saw Putin go through a series of U.S. proposals that Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff had brought to Moscow days earlier, ​listing them point by point and checking with Witkoff—who was present at the summit along with Trump and Rubio—that he, Putin, had noted them correctly. "Therefore, when ​my colleague M. Rubio says that there were only proposals in Alaska but no agreement, it raises a ​question regarding what we actually mean by 'agreement'," Lavrov said, according to Reuters.

NB: The next Russia in Review will appear on Thursday, July 2 due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• More than 100 Ukrainian emergency workers spent two weeks battling a drone-triggered fire atop Chornobyl’s 30‑story confinement structure in Feb. 2025, working in 30‑minute shifts to limit radiation. Ukraine is seeking about $580 million for permanent repairs; the U.S. has pledged $100 million and other donors about $80 million. Russian Kinzhal missiles have flown within 12 miles of Chornobyl 21 times and the Khmelnytskiy plant 15 times. (Wall Street Journal, 06.22.26)
• The UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency said repairs have been completed on key external power infrastructure for Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, including the 750 kV Dniprovska line and the switchyard feeding its 330 kV backup line, under a temporary local ceasefire. However, the heavily damaged connecting substation means the Dniprovska line “still needs to be brought back into operation,” and work there is not expected to finish soon, leaving the plant reliant on more fragile backup supplies. (Reuters, 06.26.26)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Russia’s unified school history textbook will be updated to include North Korean troops’ role in fighting in the Kursk region and expanded coverage of drones, new weapons, and tactics in the “special military operation,” with the new material targeted at grades 10–11 alongside earlier additions on the war’s “causes” and the August 2025 Russia–U.S. meeting in Alaska. (Meduza, 06.23.26)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

Thursday, June 25, 2026

• At the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdańsk, EU leaders hailed Ukraine’s “new position of strength” and began disbursing funds from a €90 billion support loan, transferring €3.2 billion in macro‑financial aid with another €6 billion for drone production due “in the coming days.” Ursula von der Leyen said Europe’s support is “unwavering,” while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared “Russia will not win this war.” Kyiv expects to sign 160 deals worth over €10 billion during the event. (Bloomberg, 06.25.26)

Friday, June 26, 2026

• Russia and Ukraine conducted a major prisoner swap on June 26, each side releasing 160 POWs, Russia’s Defense Ministry said. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that all returned Ukrainians had been in captivity since 2022. The previous exchange, on June 5, saw 185 prisoners traded by each side. (Meduza, 06.26.26)
• Kremlin-installed authorities in occupied Crimea declared a regionwide state of emergency after days of Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on power infrastructure caused rolling blackouts, water‑pressure problems in Sevastopol and major transport disruptions, halting sea passenger traffic in Sevastopol Bay, cutting train services to Russia by half with all routes funneled via Kerch, and leaving more than 2,000 vehicles facing five‑hour waits at the Kerch Bridge amid an estimated 88% year‑on‑year collapse in hotel bookings. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 06.26.26; Bloomberg, 06.26.26; The Economist, 06.26.26)
• Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal warned that the coming winter in Ukraine “will be very difficult” again, saying Kyiv and international partners are racing to restore 10 GW of damaged generation and add about 3 GW of new, decentralized power facilities that can operate autonomously and are less vulnerable to Russian attacks. He said Ukraine is building multi‑layered defenses for energy sites, strengthening air defense, and pushing for tougher sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, stressing that preparations are coordinated with the European Commission and the Energy Support Fund. (RBC.ua, 06.26.26)
• The EU moved to extend temporary protection status for more than 4.4 million Ukrainians already in the bloc until at least March 2028, but proposed excluding future arrivals who are barred from leaving Ukraine under its mobilization laws—likely men aged 23–60—arguing Kyiv needs them for defense; Europe’s human-rights commissioner warned that curbing protection for military‑age Ukrainians risks pushing people into legal limbo, poverty and unsafe returns. (Washington Post, 06.26.26)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Based on data from Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group, the past four weeks (May 26–June 23, 2026) saw Russian forces make a net gain of 12 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about half the size of Manhattan Island). In comparison, during the previous four-week period (April 28–May 26, 2026), Russia made a net gain of 21 square miles, according to DeepState’s data. In contrast, ISW data indicates that in the past four weeks (May 26–June 23, 2026) Russian forces saw endured a net loss of 20 square miles of Ukrainian territory, according to the June 24, 2026 issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 06.24.26)

Friday, June 19, 2026

• On Friday, June 19, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Pishchane. (RM, 06.26.26)
• Moscow mayor Sergey Sobyanin said air defenses shot down 35 Ukrainian drones approaching the capital in a 90‑minute window on June 19—16 by 12:11 p.m., nine more shortly after, and another 10 by 1:42 p.m. He reported no casualties or damage from this wave. The attack followed the previous night’s record strike of nearly 200 drones on Moscow and region, which set the Kapotnya refinery ablaze and injured 17 people, including two children. (Meduza, 06.19.26)
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Ukraine’s June 18 drone barrage on Moscow—about 200 drones, 17 wounded and one 8‑year‑old girl killed in the region—proof that the “Kyiv regime is in a very difficult position” and that “the situation at the fronts will soon become completely catastrophic for the Ukrainian side,” insisting Russia’s air defenses showed “high performance indicators” and promising that “these strikes will continue.” (Meduza, 06.19.26; ISW, 06.19.26)
• New York Times video analysis suggests the spectacular explosion at Moscow’s Kapotnya refinery during Ukraine’s June 18 drone attack was likely caused by a Russian MANPAD rather than a drone: a low‑flying air-defense missile is seen streaking straight into a fuel silo, which then erupts. Experts say the footage “strongly supports the supposition that this is a MANPAD launch,” highlighting how Russia’s defenses are struggling—and at times causing “friendly fire”—as they try to intercept near‑thousand‑drone swarms. (New York Times, 06.19.26)
• Ukraine’s mid‑ and long‑range strikes have hit at least 375 Russian trucks and vehicles in occupied Ukraine since May 2026, about half on the M‑14/R‑280 land corridor to Crimea, according to footage tallied by French analyst Clément Molin. ISW cites reports that roughly 25% of Russian gas stations—including 85 Tatneft sites and 2,200 Rosneft outlets—now impose purchase limits as Crimea faces hour‑long fuel queues, even as Rosneft chief Igor Sechin publicly denies any restrictions and the Russian cabinet pledges to prevent “localized market imbalances.” (ISW, 06.19.26)
• Ukraine’s dramatic drone strikes on Moscow mask a key gap: Kyiv still lacks ballistic missiles, which military officials argue are needed to seriously shift Russia’s calculus. Russian forces now fire an average of 74 ballistic missiles a month in 2026, with roughly two‑thirds penetrating air defenses, up from just 6 per month in 2023. Ukraine’s Fire Point is developing FP‑7 and FP‑9 missiles, but experts warn domestic ballistic capability will take “a lot of time” and resources to field at scale. (New York Times, 06.19.26)

Saturday, June 20, 2026

• On Saturday, June 20, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Nikanorivka. (RM,06.26.26)
• Ukraine has extended its deep-strike campaign by targeting the Tyumen Oil Refinery, about 2,000 km inside Russia, one of the country’s largest privately owned plants with capacity of roughly 151,000 barrels per day and a key role in domestic fuel supply. Tyumen authorities said drones attacked the refinery overnight, prompting staff evacuation but “no damage,” while local outlet Astra reported at least two explosions in the Antipino district and a convoy of fire trucks heading toward the site; the strike comes as Russia’s crude processing has fallen to its lowest level in two decades and gasoline shortages spread across southern regions. (Bloomberg, 06.20.26; iStories, 06.20.26)
• A Russian aerial attack killed one person and wounded nine others in Kharkiv city in eastern Ukraine, local authorities said on Saturday. (MT/AFP, 06.20.26)
• Trump recounted his version of the Ukraine war’s opening phase, claiming Russian tanks “would’ve been there in three hours going at 51 miles an hour” on a highway to Kyiv, but a general instead “would go through the farmland and through the dirt in the mud” after “a record-setting rainstorm,” so “those tanks got stuck in that mud.” He said this “terrible mistake” meant “that war would’ve been over in one day” had Russia driven “right up the concrete highway.” (Axios, 06.20.26)
  • Trump said: “I gave them Javelins and they took out the tanks. I gave it before this happened,” adding, “Trump gave him Javelins, Obama gave him sheets. Right? That’s true.” He insisted he is “not nice to Russia,” claiming, “I’ve been very tough on Russia. I’ve been very tough on China, tougher than anybody. That’s why they respect me.” (Axios, 06.20.26)

Sunday, June 21, 2026

• On Sunday, June 21, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Novodmytrivka. (RM,06.26.26)
• ISW says Ukraine’s SBU, Unmanned Systems Forces, GUR and Special Operations Forces conducted coordinated long‑range drone strikes overnight on June 21 against Russia’s Kerch Strait logistics hub, hitting the Port of Kavkaz oil depot, the TES‑Terminal‑1 depot in Kerch (less than 1 km from the bridge), and disabling four S‑400 radars plus two Pantsir systems protecting the crossing. Geolocated footage shows multiple ferries and fuel facilities on fire, potentially crippling Russia’s ability to ferry fuel and freight between Crimea and Krasnodar Krai. (ISW, 06.21.26)
• Russian attacks killed three people in the Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava regions in eastern Ukraine, local authorities said on Sunday. (MT/AFP, 06.21.26)

Monday, June 22, 2026

• On Monday, June 22, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Ryasne. (RM,06.26.26)
• Russia is intensifying attacks on Ukraine’s remaining Donetsk “fortress belt,” where Kyiv controls only about 20% of the region. A 3,000‑pound bomb hit Sloviansk in April, whose population has fallen below 44,000 from about 50,000 in March, with around 1,000 residents now evacuating weekly. Sloviansk’s main hospital treats 10–15 drone‑injured civilians each week, while evacuation hubs receive waves of 30–plus people at a time (New York Times, 06.22.26).
• A Russian drone strike on Sumy destroyed one home, killing three family members (a 36-year-old man, his 13-year-old son and a 73-year-old woman) and wounding two others (the man’s partner and 10-year-old son). In May, at least 274 civilians were killed and 1,763 injured across Ukraine, the highest monthly toll since April 2022. (Washington Post, 06.22.26)
• Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said Russian air defenses shot down 70 Ukrainian drones approaching the capital between 3:02 and 5:07 a.m. on June 22, while the Russian Defense Ministry claimed 301 drones were intercepted overnight across multiple regions, occupied Crimea and the Azov/Black Sea. Local employees at the Dubna space communications center near Moscow confirmed to TASS that Ukrainian drones attacked the facility and in Voronezh, local authorities said at least five people were killed, dozens injured and 10 apartment buildings damaged in a June 22 missile attack; Ukraine’s General Staff said it targeted a Voronezh plant producing electronics for missiles used against Ukraine, and ISW reported Ukrainian forces used high‑precision air‑launched cruise missiles against the Voronezh Semiconductor Devices Plant, which makes components for Kh‑101, Iskander‑K and Pantsir‑S1. (Istories, 06.22.26; Meduza, 06.22.26;Bloomberg, 06.22.26; ISW, 06.22.26; Washington Post, 06.22.26)
• Open‑source data indicate Ukrainian forces have confirmed at least 500 Russian trucks and vehicles hit between May 1 and June 18 (270 geolocated strikes since January), with at least 210 intermediate‑range strikes in May and 145 so far in June, while new Fire Point drones have reached targets 2,070 km deep and are expected to reach 3,000 km. (ISW, 06.22.26)
• Ukraine’s refinery and logistics strikes since March 2026 have caused gasoline shortages across many Russian regions and occupied Ukraine, prompting rising prices, rationing, proposals to fall back to outdated AI‑76/AI‑80 gasoline, temporary closures of the Kerch Bridge, suspension of ferry services, and a ban on children’s camps in occupied Crimea until September 1, 2026. (ISW, 06.22.26)

Tuesday, June 23, 2026

• On Tuesday, June 23, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Pishchane and Riznykivka. (RM,06.26.26)
•  Ukrainian drones hit oil and transport facilities in annexed Crimea for the second time since June 21, with explosions reported in at least four cities and fires at multiple energy sites near Kerch; earlier strikes had already led occupation authorities to halt free fuel sales and cancel children’s camp arrivals. Ukrainian drones have also hit three of the five vehicle ferries at the Kerch crossing, leaving about 700 vehicles stranded overnight, and have repeatedly struck the main road crossings at Armyansk, Henichesk, and Chonhar, while Ukraine’s military says it has targeted a railway bridge, a power plant and other key infrastructure in an effort to isolate the Russian‑held peninsula in the fourth year of the war. (Istories, 06.23.26; Washington Post, 06.23.26;Washington Post; AP, 06.23.26)
• Tens of thousands of Ukrainian drones now operate up to 200 miles beyond the front line in occupied Ukraine, destroying roads, railroad bridges, checkpoints, pontoon crossings, oil terminals and refineries, prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to say there are “practically no safe roads” left for Russian forces in the south and east and that fuel shortages in Crimea and other occupied regions prove “there will be no calm times for the occupier” (Washington Post, 06.23.26).
• Russia has lost at least 400,000 soldiers killed in Ukraine (with a British estimate nearing 500,000) and another 600,000–800,000 seriously wounded, yet its active force has grown from about 850,000 pre‑war to 1.3 million, as many formations doubled or tripled and added drone, reconnaissance, assault, and electronic‑warfare units, Michael Kofman writes. (Foreign Affairs, 06.23.26).
• Despite losing over 14,000 armored combat vehicles and 2,100 artillery pieces by May 2026, Russia likely fields as many or more armored vehicles (including tanks) as at the start of the war and now produces millions of tactical drones annually. Kofman notes Russia launched an average of 6,500 large one‑way attack drones per month in Ukraine in 2025, produced more than 70,000 that year, and has contracted for at least 100,000 more in 2026 (Foreign Affairs, 06.23.26).
• Ukrainian drone and missile strikes have turned most of Crimea into a war zone, The Economist reports, with frequent blackouts, fuel sales suspended across the peninsula, ferries shut and burned‑out trucks along the land corridor from Donbas. While Yalta’s resort beaches remain crowded, towns like Dzhankoi now function as military hubs and prime targets. Polling and ruling‑party focus groups cited by the outlet suggest growing exhaustion and a sense of failure inside Russia, even among supporters of the war. (The Economist, 06.23.26)
• Addressing the graduating officers in St George’s Hall, Putin said their tasks include defending Russia’s “liberated historical regions,” ensuring public security and constitutional order, and protecting citizens’ rights and interests. In the same Kremlin meeting with military‑academy graduates, Putin linked the war to Russia’s broader security doctrine, saying Moscow “has consistently advocated equal and indivisible security for all” through a multipolar international system but is “ready to promptly and appropriately respond to any external and internal threats.” He cited a “far from stable” international situation, including conflicts in the Middle East and rising tensions in Eurasia, and argued that Russia’s military build‑up and the graduates’ future combat roles are necessary responses to what he described as Western preparations “for a war against us” and radical militarization. (Kremlin, 06.23.26)

Wednesday, June 24, 2026

• On Wednesday, June 24, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Stepanivka. (RM, 06.26.26)
• Vladimir Putin claimed on June 23 that his troops were close to taking control of Kostyantynivka, while Russian MoD claimed on June 24 that its forces were advancing in the south-western parts of this key city. Ukraine’s OSINT group DeepState acknowledged “the successes of the Muscovites” in Kostyantynivka in a June 22 update, and its June 24 map showed Russian forces attacking this Donetsk region city in what looked like a pincer movement from the south and northeast. In a June 23 update ISW acknowledged Russian gains in the city, but insisted that they “remain limited to small group infiltrations that are not resulting in consolidated territorial control.” “Connected by one long road that has for years now been the backbone of Ukraine's defense of the area, the so-called Kramatorskagglomeration, from Sloviansk to the north, then Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and finally Kostyantynivka, remains the main barrier to Moscow's long-held ambitions of conquering all of Donbas,” Kyiv Independent reported. “Kostyantynivka is now on the brink,” a KI reporter declared in a video explainer posted on X. (RM, 06.24.26)
• Overnight, Russia’s Defense Ministry said air defenses intercepted 323 Ukrainian drones across at least 18 Russian regions, occupied Crimea and the Azov and Black Seas. Ukrainian drones struck a Gazprom‑owned gas‑processing plant and helium production facility in Russia’s Orenburg region, about 170 kilometers from Kazakhstan, where the plant handles gas from the Karachaganak field, sparking a fire and raising concerns about knock‑on effects on Kazakh oil and gas production. Separate strikes were reported in Nizhny Novgorod region killed at least two people and injured two more, with debris damaging an industrial facility, cars and homes.(Bloomberg, 06.24.26; Meduza, 06.24.26; Financial Times, 06.24.26; MT/AFP, 06.24.26)
• Russian contract recruitment has slumped sharply, with a Moscow source saying 1,708 people were sent to the front in April 2026 and 1,378 in May—about 1,000 fewer per month than in 2025—while nationwide Q4 2025 intake was 1.5 times lower than a year earlier. Researcher Janis Kluge estimates only 800–1,000 contracts a day in Q1 2026, roughly 20% down year-on-year. Units are often at 30–40% strength, prompting huge bonus hikes and talk of new mobilization after October’s Duma elections. (Verstka/Vazhnyye Istorii, 06.24.26)
• U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Jeremy Levin claimed at a conference in Poland that Ukraine is winning the war. “We do have a moment right now where Ukraine is winning the war at this moment” Levin. Levin was also reported to have said at the conference that Russian troops are effectively waiting for the winter to conduct “cowardly attacks” on energy infrastructure. (Kyiv Post, 06.24.26; RBC.ua, 06.24.26, RM, 06.26.26) Levin didn’t say on what criteria he was basing his claim while, as stated in Highlight 1, DeepState and ISW differed on whether Russia was gaining or losing Ukrainian territory in the past four weeks. 
• Ukraine has begun a first phase of military reform to tackle troop exhaustion and manpower shortages, replacing open‑ended service with fixed‑term frontline contracts of roughly 10–24 months that include large pay rises (about ₴300,000 per month for infantry) and at least six months’ leave from duty after completion, with equal pay for contract and mobilized troops. A detailed Ukrainska Pravda–based account says infantry are being asked to serve an extra 6–14 months and other roles up to 24 months in exchange for at least six months’ deferment from remobilization, but many long‑serving soldiers are angry that the reform still offers no clear demobilization date, while those who refuse new contracts must keep serving until a future political decision—effectively “until the end of the war.” (Financial Times, 06.24.26; Meduza, 06.22.26)

Thursday, June 25, 2026

• On Thursday, June 25, 2026 Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces advanced near Sukhetske and Rodynske. (RM, 06.26.26)
• Ukrainian Telegram channels reported a drone strike and large column of black smoke at an oil‑refinery area in Ufa’s Chernikovka district, where two Bashneft plants are located, while Russian officials said the incident was still being verified and unofficially called a drone strike “possible” amid region‑wide alerts. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed Ukrainian forces hit the Poltavskaya depot and that the SBU struck the Bashneft Ufaneftekhim and Bashneft Novoil refineries in Ufa, calling these “long range sanctions” and urging Russians to think about “real diplomacy.” Russia’s Defense Ministry said its air defenses shot down 269 Ukrainian drones overnight across 12 regions, occupied Crimea and the Black Sea, but debris ignited a fire at the Poltavskaya fuel depot in Krasnodar Krai, where three storage tanks reportedly burned amid a wider fuel crisis that has already led 20 regions to restrict gasoline sales; (Meduza, 06.25.26; Meduza, 06.25.26; Ukrainska Pravda, 06.25.26, Bloomberg, 06.25.26)
  • Since March, more than two dozen strikes on Russian oil refineries have knocked out some 20% of the country’s refining capacity, analysts estimate. (Wall Street Journal, 06.25.26)
• Russia’s own figures show claimed UAV interceptions jumping from 2,504 in May 2025 to 8,849 in May 2026, while more than two dozen refinery hits since March have knocked out an estimated 20% of Russia’s refining capacity, contributing to fuel rationing in over half of its regions. (Wall Street Journal, 06.25.26)
• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia is redeploying significant air-defense assets to shield Moscow, Vladimir Putin’s Valdai residence and the Kerch Bridge, claiming “hundreds of launchers” are now in the Moscow region and “nearly 90” have been moved to Valdai, and confirmed Ukrainian strikes on two refineries in Ufa, 1,500 km from the front, plus an oil depot in Krasnodar, arguing the Kremlin is more focused on protecting itself than its citizens. Washington Post, AP, 06.25.26; Guardian, 06.25.26)
• A Russian strike on Ukraine’s southern Kherson region killed two mine disposal experts from the Oslo-based charity Norwegian People’s Aid, the Kherson region’s governor said. The strike occurred on Wednesday in the village of Novopetrivka, Oleksandr Prokudin said on Telegram. “Four other specialists were wounded.” The staff affected were Ukrainian citizens, the deputy head of the Kherson region’s military administration said. (Guardian, 06.25.26)
• Ukrainian commander‑in‑chief Oleksandr Syrskyi says Russia plans to form an unspecified number of new divisions and five new brigades in 2026, but ISW notes that of at least 10 “new” divisions created since 2022 under Shoigu’s reform plan for 17 maneuver divisions, none are at doctrinal strength and many exist largely on paper, with manpower, economic and recruitment constraints likely to prevent Moscow from fully staffing fresh formations. (ISW, 06.25.26)
• Donald Trump has said Volodymyr Zelenskyy is doing “pretty well” in Ukraine’s war against Russia, “holding his own.” The U.S. president—who previously said the Ukrainian president lacked the “cards” to win—told journalists in the Oval Office that Zelenskyy was “holding his own, at least. A lot of people dying on both sides, but I think he’s doing pretty well.” (Guardian, Ukrainska Pravda, 06.25.26)
• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdańsk that “Ukraine is in a new position of strength” on the battlefield and declared, “Russia will not win this war.” Citing reinforced transatlantic unity after the G7, he said European backing for Kyiv is “unshakable” and sanctions have already undermined Russia’s economy. Merz said Berlin is sending “a clear signal to Russia: it’s time to start negotiations, freeze the front line and end the killings.” (Ukrainska Pravda, 06.25.26)
• Colonel Dmytro Koziura, former head of the Security Service of Ukraine's (SBU) counter-terrorism department, has been convicted of treason and sentenced to life in prison, Ukraine's Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko reported on June 25. Koziura reportedly passed secret information to Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), including details about critical infrastructure and the consequences of Russian missile strikes against Kyiv. (Status-6 X Account, 06.25.26; Kyiv Independent, 06.25.26)

Friday, June 26, 2026

• Ukraine’s Air Force said Russia launched 7 Iskander‑M ballistic missiles and 189 attack drones overnight on June 26, targeting Kyiv and Poltava regions with missiles and multiple directions with Shahed, Geran, Italmass and decoy “Parodiya” drones. By 09:00, Ukrainian defenses had shot down or jammed 177 targets—three ballistic missiles and 174 drones—using aviation, SAMs, EW and mobile groups, but four missiles and 11 drones still hit 12 locations, with debris falling on six more. Officials warned the attack was still ongoing. (RBC.ua, 06.26.26)
• Ukraine launched one of its largest drone barrages to date overnight on June 26, with Russia’s Defense Ministry claiming air defenses intercepted 660 drones across 12 regions, occupied Crimea and the Azov–Black Sea area. In Tula region, local authorities reported fires at the Azot chemical plant and a power station in Novomoskovsk; Governor Dmitry Milyayev said 157 drones were shot down there, but an industrial site and a private home were hit, injuring a woman. At least 47 drones were reportedly downed over Moscow and its region. Moscow’s mayor Sobyanin says air defenses downed up to 180 drones in a single day Meduza, 06.26.26; Financial Times, 06.26.26)
  • Russia’s Defense Ministry says air defenses downed 660 Ukrainian drones overnight across multiple regions and Crimea, in what TASS called the most massive drone attack on Russia this year. Officials report 157 drones intercepted over Tula alone, where strikes triggered fires at the Azot chemical complex and a local power plant that heats 60% of Novomoskovsk’s housing. Moscow’s mayor said 45 drones were shot down near the capital. Earlier peaks were 556 drones on May 17 and 992 destroyed in one day on June 18. (MT/AFP, 06.26.26; Istories, 06.26.26)
  • Kommersant’s analysis of Russian Defense Ministry bulletins finds that since the start of 2026 air defenses have allegedly “intercepted and destroyed” more than 39,000 Ukrainian drones over 51 regions—about 6,000 per month and an average of 223 per day—with 9,700 reported shot down in June alone; the heaviest barrages were on the nights of March 25 (389 drones over 14 regions), May 17 (556 over 15 regions) and June 18 (555 over 18 regions), mostly over Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk, Crimea, Krasnodar Krai, the Moscow region, and Tula and Voronezh, plus more than 380 claimed interceptions over the Black and Azov Seas. (Kommersant, 06.25.26)
• Russia’s data show claimed interceptions of Ukrainian drones rising from 2,504 in May 2025 to 8,849 in May 2026; Kyiv expects to produce over 7 million drones this year (vs. 2.2 million in 2024), and manufacturer Fire Point aims to build 300 FP‑1 drones a day as Ukraine expands strikes deep into Russia. (Wall Street Journal, 06.25.26)
• Ukraine’s commander‑in‑chief Oleksandr Syrskyi told The Times it is “too early” to say the war is at a turning point, but said Kyiv aims to drive Russia to a Clausewitz‑style “culmination point” where its mobilized forces and resources are exhausted. He listed Ukraine’s priorities as holding territory, inflicting casualties faster than Russia can replace them, destroying logistics with mid‑range drones, and striking Russian energy and defense industry. Syrskyi warned the window is time‑limited, as technological breakthroughs by either side could again shift the battlefield balance. (RBC.ua, 06.26.26)
• After a recent visit to Ukraine, Erik Prince said “Entire sections of line are held by automated systems… There are enemy troops surrendering to a robot. If you said it 10 years ago, you would say it was a sci-fi movie.” He also highlights Ukraine’s radical decentralization of procurement—letting front‑line commanders buy kit online and rewarding combat effectiveness with more gear—and says cheap FPV drones now account for the majority of Russian casualties, with parts of the line held by automated systems and “enemy troops surrendering to a robot.” (Financial Times, 06.26.26)
• Ukraine’s 425th Separate Assault Regiment “Skala” faces a major scandal after an investigation by Babel alleged at least 25 deaths of conscripts in training centers over six months and cases of beatings and possible torture. The regiment confirmed 25 training‑center deaths but disputes some claims, saying several were due to illness. Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigation has opened a criminal case for abuse of authority under martial law, Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets launched a rights probe, and the regiment’s commander, Lt. Col. Yuriy Harkavyi, has been suspended pending a full inquiry. (RBC.ua, 06.26.26)

Military aid to Ukraine:

• At least 150,000 drones and 350 air defense missiles and radar systems will be delivered to Ukraine from the UK by the end of this year. The new package announced today will strengthen Ukraine’s crucial protection against Russia’s indiscriminate attacks. (UK MOD X Account, 06.18.26)

Friday, June 19, 2026

• However effective Ukraine’s drone arsenal may be, Ukraine still lacks the weapon that has long underpinned Russia’s most devastating air attacks: ballistic missiles. Kyiv is racing to field its own systems: Fire Point is developing FP‑7 and FP‑9 ballistic missiles, and Ukraine is partnering with European firms for guidance tech, but experts warn “it’s going to take time” and “a lot of resources” to build even “good enough” missiles at scale. (New York Times, 06.19.26)

Saturday, June 20, 2026

• The UK has unveiled three prototype long‑range “Project Brakestop” missiles for Ukraine that are explicitly designed with no U.S. components, to avoid American export leverage over how and where they are used. Developed by MBDA UK, MGI Engineering and Rotron Aerospace, the weapons have passed initial trials and could be in Ukrainian service by late 2026. MoD requirements envisage production of about 20 missiles per month at roughly £400,000 each (without warhead), substantially cheaper and easier to scale than Storm Shadow. (Financial Times, 06.20.26)

Monday, June 22, 2026

• At the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy publicly thanked outgoing UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on X for “support,” “joint decisions” that strengthened Europe’s security, and for being “always in touch” and “engaged,” adding that Kyiv “deeply values Britain” and that their conversations “always” had “real substance” (Financial Times, 06.22.26)

Thursday, June 25, 2026

• The EU has disbursed the first €3 billion tranche of a €90 billion support loan to Ukraine and pledged another €6 billion “in the coming days,” mainly to scale up drone production, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told a Ukraine recovery conference in Gdańsk. Since February 2022, EU states have provided about €200 billion in support and committed €90 billion more. Leaders also launched a European equity fund with up to €220 million in public capital to crowd in private investment. (Washington Post/AP, 06.25.26)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

Friday, June 19, 2026

• EU leaders agreed to roll over core sanctions on Russia for a full year instead of the previous six‑month renewals, the first such 12‑month extension since 2022. Hungary and Slovakia, which had insisted on shorter windows, did not object this time—a shift DW links to Viktor Orbán’s electoral defeat. The upcoming 21st sanctions package is expected to add restrictions on 90 more banks and includes a Commission proposal to bar entry to any Russian who fought in Ukraine after February 24, 2022. (Meduza, 06.19.26)

Thursday, June 25, 2026

• Russia ordered the closure of Romania’s Consulate General in St. Petersburg and declared Consul Gheorghe Nicolae Pahonea persona non grata, in a tit‑for‑tat response to Bucharest’s May decision to shut Russia’s consulate in Constanta after a Russian drone crashed into a Romanian apartment block, injuring a woman and child. Moscow called Romania’s move “groundless,” while 56 UN members had condemned the original drone incident as “unacceptable.” (The Moscow Times, 06.25.26)
• Italy and France have raised concerns over a European Commission proposal to ban Russians who served in the military after Feb. 24, 2022, from entering the EU, fearing the current draft could amount to a de facto blanket ban on all Russian nationals, Bloomberg reports. Rome and Paris say such restrictions should be handled via visa policy rather than sanctions and warn it will be extremely difficult for member states to verify who actually participated in the war. (Meduza, 06.25.26)
• Apple has removed a wide range of VK Group and related Russian apps—including Dzen, VK Video, VK Messenger, VK Music, VK Dating, Odnoklassniki, the main VKontakte app, Mail.ru, Skillbox and Dzen—from its App Store, a move VK says came “without warning” despite it not being under sanctions; 1,213 apps were removed from the Russian App Store in 2025. (Meduza, 06.25.26)

Friday, June 26, 2026

• Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna urged “strategic patience” and greater pressure on Russia as Ukrainian long-range strikes deepen Moscow’s losses, saying the “critical point is coming closer” even if the war’s end remains hard to predict. Speaking at the Gdańsk recovery conference, he highlighted growing European unity and said upcoming EU sanctions will further cut Russian oil and gas revenues, adding that while U.S. involvement is vital, “Europe must take more lead. Actually we do.” (Bloomberg, 06.26.26)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Friday, June 19, 2026

• Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected Europe’s latest peace initiative as an “ultimatum,” arguing that conditions set out by Britain, France and Germany after their June 7 meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in London—including an immediate ceasefire and talks based on the current line of contact—cannot serve as a basis for negotiations. In a June 19 essay, “Ukraine, Europe, and Global Security,” prepared for Politico Europe but pulled from publication, Lavrov said Europe is “a party bent on Russia’s defeat” and thus unfit to mediate, reiterated Moscow’s unchanged maximalist demands, and invoked alleged but undocumented understandings from the August 2025 Alaska summit, signaling continued disinterest in any settlement short of Ukrainian capitulation. (Bloomberg, 06.19.26; ISW, 06.19.26)
• António Costa’s quiet outreach to Moscow has triggered backlash at the Brussels summit, with multiple EU leaders saying they opposed his office’s calls with a senior Russian official about potential peace talks, arguing capitals had not been consulted and “the time was not right” to engage Vladimir Putin. Costa defended “direct contact” so Europe does not “depend only on others to interpret Russian messages,” while Ursula von der Leyen said Europe “must be one of the architects of a just and lasting peace”; other leaders stressed any talks must involve Ukraine, Russia, Europe and the U.S. and warned “there are no indications that Russia is coming to the table at all,” as Sergei Lavrov dismissed the EU effort as “diplomacy as a cover for expansionist ambitions” and raised the specter of nuclear escalation. (Financial Times, 06.19.26; Washington Post/AP, 06.19.26)
• Emmanuel Macron told France TV that when Trump returned to the White House in early 2025 “he thought Ukraine was going to lose,” and that “everything went badly in the Oval Office during the meeting with Zelenskyy,” while the Anchorage Trump–Putin summit raised fears of a deal forcing Kyiv to cede even unconquered territories. Macron said European leaders then lobbied Washington, and that Trump has since seen predictions that Ukrainians “would fall” and “not survive the winter” were “false.” (Meduza, 06.19.26)

Tuesday, June 23, 2026

• Russian President Vladimir Putin told Russian government officials Russia is ready for peace talks with Ukraine “on the basis of the Istanbul agreements” reached in spring 2022 and initialed by Kyiv’s delegation, which envisaged Ukrainian neutrality, force limits and de facto Russian control of Crimea, insisting there is “no reason not to stick to these agreements” from Moscow’s side and linking any future talks to “the reality on the ground.” He claimed Ukrainian attacks are meant “to create favourable conditions for itself in base of negotiations,” seeking only an “illusion of a position of strength,” while asserting Russian units are “advancing their positions every day” and “liberating one community after another,” and accusing Kyiv of having “cut short” earlier talks; since 2024, however, Russian officials have also invoked “Anchorage”—Putin’s meeting with Donald Trump in Alaska—as implying U.S. acceptance of full Russian control over annexed territories. (Meduza, 06.24.26; Kremlin, 06.23.26)
• Russia on Tuesday said the United States was no longer an "objective mediator" in its efforts to broker an end to the Ukraine war. "As for the United States, judging by their actions, they appear to be abandoning any claim to the role of an objective mediator and are instead pursuing a course of escalating sanctions pressure on Russia," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told foreign envoys in Moscow on Tuesday. (MT/AFP, 06.23.26)

Wednesday, June 24, 2026

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow remains committed to what it sees as the Trump–Putin “Anchorage” compromise, despite Emmanuel Macron telling Russia those understandings had been “buried,” and insisted Russia “will not stop at the line of contact” as a condition for talks, demanding Ukrainian neutrality, non‑nuclear status, recognition of Russia’s annexation referendums, and repeal of “discriminatory” language and church laws. He said Russia is “ready to resume negotiations with Ukraine from the point where they stopped,” while accusing the U.S. and EU of using the Alaska talks to “buy time” to arm Kyiv and blocking a settlement on Russian terms—demands ISW says amount to Ukrainian capitulation. (Reuters, 06.24.26; TASS, 06.24.26; ISW, 06.23.26; RBC.ua, 06.24.26)
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there are currently “no agreements” on resuming peace talks with Ukraine, even as he repeated that Russia’s supposed readiness for negotiations is Vladimir Putin’s “consistent position” since his Foreign Ministry speech outlining conditions to end the war. Peskov called U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s efforts “constructive” and said contacts will continue, but added Moscow has no decision yet on a venue, despite Istanbul’s offer to host. (Ukrainska Pravda, 06.24.26)
• Security Council deputy chair Dmitry Medvedev on June 24 dismissed Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s legitimacy and ruled out direct talks, claiming Russia will achieve all objectives militarily. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow will not accept freezing the current front line as a condition for negotiations, while Deputy FM Sergei Ryabkov reaffirmed Moscow’s reference to alleged “Anchorage” understandings with the U.S.—agreements never publicly confirmed—used to portray Russia as willing to negotiate. (ISW, 06.24.26)

Thursday, June 25, 2026

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week that there was “no agreement in Alaska” on Ukraine during the August 2025 Trump–Putin summit. "There was a proposal in Alaska, but there was no agreement in Alaska. If there had ​been an agreement, we would have had an end of the war," Rubio said, according to Reuters. Rubio also noted that the Russian proposal included Russian control of Donbas among other demands, according to ISW. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s remarks reported by Reuters this week, however, the 2025 summit saw Putin go through a series of U.S. proposals that Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff had brought to Moscow days earlier, ​listing them point by point and checking with Witkoff—who was present at the summit along with Trump and Rubio—that he, Putin, had noted them correctly. "Therefore, when ​my colleague M. Rubio says that there were only proposals in Alaska but no agreement, it raises a ​question regarding what we actually mean by 'agreement'," Lavrov said, according to Reuters. (Reuters. 06.26.26; ISW, 06.25.26)

Friday, June 26, 2026

• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has approved a 40‑day “influence operation” drawn up by Ukraine’s SBU security service to pressure Russia into ending the war, describing it as part of a broader plan of “long‑range and mid‑range sanctions” implemented through drone and special operations. He praised SBU’s unmanned units and the Alpha Special Operations Center for leading in destroying Russian personnel and equipment at the front, and linked the campaign to Ukraine’s carefully planned operations against occupied Crimea. (RBC.ua, 06.26.26)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Saturday, June 20, 2026

• In an interview with Axios, Donald Trump argued Russia should never have been excluded from the G8, saying: “It used to be G8s. They should have kept the G8. You probably wouldn’t have the war with Russia and Ukraine if they did, but Obama didn’t want Putin there… It used to be the G8. It would’ve been much better if they kept that that way.” (Axios, 06.20.26)

Tuesday, June 23, 2026

• Russian influence operators called it Project 2026. The plan wasn’t just to spread fabricated stories on social media platforms. It outlined efforts to create an alternative information ecosystem. Leaked documents from a private Russian agency reviewed by Bloomberg News reveal plans to build a sprawling network of Wikipedia-style reference sites, media outlets and phony think tanks to shape how people and AI chatbots understand political issues. (Bloomberg, 06.23.26)

Wednesday, June 24, 2026

• Latvia’s intelligence service warned that Russia is preparing “hybrid attacks”—including possible missile and drone strikes—against the Baltic states and Poland to pressure NATO into scaling back support for Ukraine, but said a full-scale war is not imminent. Officials told Fox News Moscow is also building a legal narrative, including a planned case at the International Court of Justice, to later justify actions. They estimate Russia would need three to five years to regain conventional capacity for major war. (Meduza, 06.24.26)
• Russia is reportedly developing new military infrastructure near its border with NATO member Finland that will be able to house thousands of Russian soldiers. The new base in Novaya Vilga, which lies some 170 kilometers from Russia's frontier with NATO, is being watched closely inside Finland and the wider Baltic Sea region as Moscow beefs up its military presence in the area. (RFE/RL, 06.24.26)
• German prosecutors have charged a Russian citizen with violating investment rules and aiding an attempted act of unconstitutional sabotage over an alleged scheme to liquidate Gazprom Germania shortly after Russia’s full‑scale invasion, which authorities say was intended to disrupt German gas supplies before Berlin placed the company under state control and later nationalized it as Securing Energy for Europe. (Meduza, 06.24.26)

Thursday, June 25, 2026

• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte used charts in an Oval Office meeting to persuade President Donald Trump that European allies are “equalizing their defense spending with the United States,” highlighting more than $250 billion in extra NATO defense outlays over the past two years and dubbing the increase the “Trump Trillion.” His goal, the New York Times reports, is to keep the U.S. anchored in NATO and avoid an outburst from Trump at the July 7 Ankara summit. In the same Oval Office meeting, Trump said his demand of allies is simply “Just be loyal,” and hinted he may soon lift the U.S. ban on selling F‑35s to Turkey (New York Times, 06.25.26)
• European allies want to send “a strong signal of support for Ukraine” at the Nato summit in Ankara in July, Germany’s chancellor said as he hosted the leaders of France, Britain, Italy and Poland. “The message to Russia is: Ukraine remains strong,” Friedrich Merz said at a joint press event in Berlin on Wednesday after the European leaders had also spoken by video link with the Nato chief, Mark Rutte. Merz said the German government “proposes that we, as European Nato allies, give Kyiv a strong financing commitment” and stressed that “Europe’s support is not wavering.” Leaders from 32 nations, among them Trump, will attend the 7-8 July Nato summit in the Turkish capital. (Guardian, 06.25.26)
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has forced Gen. Christopher T. Donahue, the top U.S. Army commander in Europe and Africa, to retire, ending the career of a widely viewed rising star in efforts to adapt the Army to drone‑ and AI‑dominated warfare, the New York Times reports. Donahue, who will relinquish command July 2, previously led the 18th Airborne Corps’ support to Ukraine and more recently created the Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative, a layered network of barriers, sensors, drones and interceptors designed to defend NATO’s front line. (New York Times, 06.25.26)

Friday, June 26, 2026

• Ahead of the July NATO summit in Ankara, Secretary‑General Mark Rutte used charts in an Oval Office meeting to show Donald Trump that European and Canadian allies have committed roughly $1 trillion in additional defense spending since his first term—the “Trump Trillion”—with over $250 billion in the past two years alone, arguing that Europeans are now “equalizing their defense spending with the United States” largely in response to Russia’s threat and to Trump’s pressure. (New York Times, 06.26.26)
• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said allies will use the July 5–7 Ankara summit to showcase a “big day of defense industry,” with numerous new contracts, letters of intent and major agreements to deepen joint arms production. Speaking ahead of the meeting, he said the goal is to demonstrate to NATO’s “billion citizens” and to Russia that the alliance is “doing what is necessary,” adding a pointed message to Moscow: “We know what you are doing, and we are better at this.” (RBC.ua, 06.26.26)
• Latvian intelligence and other NATO officials warn Russia may be preparing “military provocations” against the Baltic states or Poland—hybrid attacks using missiles, drones or other means short of full‑scale war—to pressure the alliance to curb support for Ukraine. A second NATO source said Moscow could “throw the dice” to test U.S. commitment to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, while Polish PM Donald Tusk called the situation “very unstable” and said eastern‑flank states are bracing for “various types of escalation” in coming weeks and months. (Guardian, 06.26.26)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• No significant developments.

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• At a Hudson Institute event in Washington, National Nuclear Security Administration chief Brandon Williams said Russia’s nuclear threats over the Ukraine war are a sign of “weakness” and reflect “a lack of conviction and confidence in their conventional forces against a much, much, much, much, much smaller” Ukraine. He argued such saber-rattling has failed to intimidate NATO states, even as the conflict enters its fifth year and has killed or wounded more than 1 million people. Williams said deterrence today still “begins with our nuclear arsenal,” noting the U.S. is fully modernizing its triad. (Axios, 06.24.26)
• Speaking to a group of top military‑academy graduates in the Kremlin, Putin said Russia is “In accordance with the State Armament Programme, we are consistently modernising our nuclear triad and the Army and strengthening the combat capability of our Aerospace Forces and the Navy. (Kremlin, 06.23.26)
• Russian political scientist Andrey Kolesnikov recounted Sergei Lavrov allegedly saying behind closed doors at a recent, “Well, after all, I would use it,” a shift Kolesnikov links to a quasi‑religious faith in a “superweapon” that he insists would mean catastrophe, not victory. In a subsequent interview to FT Kolesnikov pointed out that the drone attacks had only hardened the stance of war opponents but also of hawks who call for nuclear strikes. “For Putin, the pressure is a spur to escalate.” (Andrey Kolesnikov, interview with Vadim Radionov, “I Gryanul Grem,” YouTube, 06.18.26, FT, 06.26.26).
  • Andrey Kolesnikov’s account of Sergei Lavrov allegedly saying in a closed‑door SVOP discussion, “Well, after all, I would use it,” is disputed. Russian rms‑control analyst Dmitry Stefanovich (X: @KomissarWhipla), who says he attended the same SVOP Assembly, states that Lavrov “did not say anything like that about nuclear use” and points to the published video of the session as evidence (RM, 06.23.26).
• Russian military expert Yuri Knutov wrote in Rossiiskaya Gazeta that Russia is “approaching the moment when the question will arise of using tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield,” proposing battlefield use of 152 mm low‑yield nuclear artillery shells “in three or four places” along Ukrainian lines to erase fortifications and manpower while keeping, in his words, “the level of use of tactical weapons minimal,” and calling for large‑scale strikes with heavy aerial bombs (FAB‑3000, FAB‑9000); the article later became inaccessible on Rossiyskaya Gazeta’s site, possibly because his reference to Russian “special warhead” shells would imply violations of the Presidential Nuclear Initiatives (Rossiyskaya Gazeta via Rambler, 06.22.26). The RG article could not be accessed on RG’s site on June 23, 2026. It might have been taken down. One potential reason for doing so by the editors of this federal government’s mouthpiece is Knutov’s referral to Russia’s possession of 125mm shells with special warheads. Such possession would have violated the PNIs.

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• The Wall Street Journal details how Russian state hackers such as “Midnight Blizzard” have increasingly hidden inside “residential proxy networks,” piggybacking on some 20 million compromised U.S. home devices that have backdoor software pre‑installed on cheap gadgets, mobile apps or pirated games. Comcast, alerted by Microsoft, traced six suspect IPs to a Chinese proxy provider, IPidea, and ultimately to a network of about 750,000 U.S. addresses; the FBI warns that these hijacked consumer connections give foreign actors “a leg up” in targeting government, industry and cloud accounts while appearing to log in from ordinary U.S. homes. (WSJ, 06.17.26)
• Moscow mayor Sergey Sobyanin’s smaller “personal blog” Telegram channel (about 40,000 subscribers) was hacked on June 21 and flooded with posts reading “MOSCOW WILL BURN” plus links to Ukrainian drone fundraisers run by the Spilnota Sternenka foundation; the channel was briefly taken offline and later restored with posts only through June 17, while City Hall has not commented publicly. (Meduza, 06.22.26)
• Russia’s revised AI bill has been cut from 21 to 13 articles and now focuses on large foundation models, preserving “sovereign” and “national” model categories but dropping the “trusted AI” label and the requirement that qualifying models be trained only on Russian data or by Russian citizens, allowing foreign datasets and components. (Meduza, 06.23.26)
• The Five Eyes cyber chiefs warned that AI‑enabled attacks by adversaries could begin overwhelming Western government and corporate defenses “within months,” urging organizations to deploy AI tools in their security operations and noting that frontier models will “fundamentally” transform both offensive and defensive cyber capabilities. (Financial Times, 06.23.26)

Energy exports from CIS:

Saturday, June 20, 2026

• A Wall Street Journal survey of Russian fuel markets says more than 20% of refining capacity has been knocked offline by over two dozen Ukrainian refinery strikes since March, with the IEA calling the disruption “unprecedented.” Fuel‑purchase limits are now in place in 53 Russian regions and occupied territories; Crimea is using QR-code rationing, and drivers endure hours‑long gas‑station queues as prices surge. Analysts note Ukraine has focused on 10–15 large, modern plants that produce high‑octane fuel using hard‑to‑replace Western equipment. (Wall Street Journal, 06.20.26)
• Despite Kremlin denials, Russian outlet Fontanka says gasoline shortages and price spikes are now widespread, including in St. Petersburg, Voronezh and Tula. Independent reports indicate some non vertically integrated stations are sharply raising prices, while regional authorities in places like Saratov discuss price caps and Tver introduces temporary sales limits at Surgutneftegaz and Tatneft sites. ISW assesses that intensifying Ukrainian strikes on refineries and depots will continue to exacerbate shortages that Moscow will struggle to manage uniformly. (ISW, 06.20.26)
• German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche said Turkey understands the European Union’s position that gas imported under new contracts with the bloc must not originate in Russia. Brussels will insist on non-Russian supplies in any future agreements involving Turkey, Reiche said in Ankara on Friday. The minister was on a two-day visit to Turkey accompanied by a business delegation. Earlier that day, she held talks with the Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar. (Bloomberg, 06.20.26)

Sunday, June 21, 2026

• As a result, Crimean occupation chief Sergei Aksyonov abruptly halted fuel sales to all non‑state customers, while Sevastopol’s governor banned gas‑station sales for two days, cut public transport hours, suspended ferries and canceled outdoor events. The Krasnodar crisis HQ said Kerch ferry service was temporarily shut and advised freight to detour via the M‑14/R‑280 “land bridge,” where Ukraine is also attacking. Local reports cite rolling blackouts in cities including Simferopol, Sevastopol and Dzhankoi, as Krymenergo imposed electricity‑use limits after “accidents” on the grid. (ISW, 06.21.26)

Monday, June 22, 2026

• Ukraine has carried out more than two dozen drone strikes on Russian refineries since March, knocking over 20% of refining capacity offline. Fuel-purchase restrictions now apply in 53 regions of Russia and occupied Ukraine, after repeated hits on a Moscow refinery that supplies over one-third of the capital region’s fuel. (Wall Street Journal, 06.22.26)

Tuesday, June 23, 2026

• Russia is weighing a ban on exports of diesel to avoid domestic shortages after Ukraine intensified attacks on the nation’s refineries. The move could potentially put extra pressure on international fuel supplies, which are already under strain due to the disruption caused by the Iran war. The possible prohibition of sales of diesel to foreign markets would come in addition to existing restrictions on flows of gasoline and jet fuel, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Tuesday at a governmental meeting with President Vladimir Putin. (Bloomberg, 06.23.26)
• Russia is shipping more oil than at any time so far this year, even as it faces stiffer competition selling barrels to key customer India after a U.S. sanctions waiver that freed up cargoes from rival supplier Iran. Four-week average crude shipments were 3.89 million barrels a day in the period to June 21, up a little from the previous week, according to tanker-movements data compiled by Bloomberg. The uptick in crude flows comes as Ukraine continues its strikes on Russia’s oil refineries, potentially diverting into exports crude that can’t be processed. Kyiv’s attacks, which include strikes on the Moscow plant, are creating widespread gasoline supply disruptions and most recently targeted the Tyumen refinery in the Ural region, about 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles) from the Ukrainian border. (Bloomberg, 06.23.26)
• Russia’s gasoline crunch is worsening, with at least two-thirds of the country’s regions introducing fuel rationing or suffering supply disruptions following relentless Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries. On an almost daily basis, regional governors from areas bordering Ukraine to the Amur region near China are being forced to limit sales at filling stations and to try to deter panic buying. The scale of disruptions vary across Russia, but are intensifying and risk getting even worse if drone strikes increase. Kyiv targeted the oil-processing sector in recent months to curb fuel supplies and bring “the war home to Russia.” That has halted operations at several key refineries, pushed up pump prices for drivers, and even led to Russia banning jet fuel exports. On Tuesday, the government said it’s considering a full ban on diesel sales overseas. The inflationary impact could also be a further worry for the central bank. (Bloomberg, 06.23.26)
• Russia’s government is drawing up a stabilization plan for the fuel crisis that includes importing motor fuel, allowing higher‑sulfur products, lowering mandatory gasoline sales on exchanges, and adjusting the fuel “dampener” so subsidies can also apply to imported products, after Ukrainian strikes on refineries. (Istories, 06.23.26)
• Regional authorities in Omsk, Irkutsk, Novosibirsk, and Saratov have imposed fuel caps amid Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries: Omsk banned canister sales and limited gasoline to 40 liters per vehicle (diesel 80 liters, 200 on highways), while Saratov set a 30‑liter cap through June 30; Irkutsk switched to “manual” allocation and Novosibirsk is preparing similar limits. (Meduza, 06.23.26)
• Ukraine’s intensified air campaign against Crimea has triggered fuel shortages, rolling blackouts, and a collapse of the tourist season: gasoline sales outside Sevastopol are suspended, camps and festivals are barred from accepting children until September, and about 780 cars faced three‑hour waits to leave the peninsula on Monday evening, while Russian tourists and even residents are now fleeing the region (New York Times, 06.23.26).
• Russian Regional carrier Azimuth warned Russia faces a “critical” jet fuel shortage that makes flying “economically pointless,” after its main supplier cut deliveries by about a third in early June, citing refinery “force majeure.” Alternative suppliers also lack volumes, and airport kerosene prices have jumped 17% on average this month, including a 64% surge in Makhachkala to 157,000 rubles per ton. The airline urged the industry to press the Energy Ministry for emergency measures. (Meduza, 06.24.26)

Wednesday, June 24, 2026

• The Moscow oil refinery in Kapotnya, one of Russia’s largest and a key fuel supplier for the capital region, will remain offline until at least the end of 2026 after two Ukrainian drone strikes on June 16 and 18 knocked out both primary processing units, Reuters sources said. One source estimated repairs would take “at least half a year.” The prolonged shutdown deepens Russia’s fuel crunch amid nationwide refinery damage. (Meduza, 06.24.26)
• Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, which produces about 40% of Russia’s oil and derives over 70% of its budget from extraction, has begun rationing fuel as the national gasoline crisis spreads. Governor Ruslan Kukharuk said some stations now cap purchases to prevent shortages and “speculation,” though he insisted reserves are “sufficient.” Local media report Gazprom Neft outlets limiting customers to 40 liters of gasoline and 80 liters of diesel per transaction, with similar curbs at Lukoil. (Meduza, 06.24.26)
• Russia’s gasoline output fell about 25% in the week of June 15–21 compared with average daily production in June 2025, Reuters reported, citing industry sources, as Ukrainian strikes on refineries bite. Fuel-rationing rules and per-customer caps have now appeared across numerous Russian regions and occupied Ukrainian territories, with long lines at stations and rising prices. Vedomosti says the government is weighing increased imports and subsidies. Vologda’s governor said Lukoil has limited sales nationally to 30 liters of gasoline and 60 liters of diesel per customer. (Meduza, 06.24.26)
• Russia is negotiating with Kazakhstan to buy about 50,000 tons of AI‑92 gasoline to ease domestic shortages, Reuters sources told Meduza, though Kazakhstan is a relatively small fuel producer and one source said supplies would likely be limited, with any surplus possibly exchanged for Russian jet fuel. (Meduza, 06.24.26)

Thursday, June 25, 2026

• Russia has enjoyed a major oil windfall as prices surged during the Iran war and U.S. sanctions were temporarily loosened. India’s imports of Russian crude are set to hit a record 2.7 million barrels per day in June, 56% of its total and up 89% on pre‑war levels, helping Moscow earn an estimated $15.2 billion in surplus oil profits. Washington granted a series of 30‑day waivers for “energy‑vulnerable” states before letting them expire last week, clearing the way to tighten sanctions again. (Financial Times, 06.25.26)
• Ukraine’s refinery‑strike campaign is worsening Russian inflation and constraining expansionary monetary policy, ISW reports: gasoline prices jumped 3% to about $0.95/litre between June 16–22, the biggest weekly rise in at least 20 years; output is down 15% since June 2025; fuel shortages now affect nearly all regions; and annual inflation has risen from 5.3% to 5.8%, prompting Central Bank chief Elvira Nabiullina to hint key‑rate cuts may have to stop despite Kremlin pressure. (ISW, 06.25.26)
• Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign has hit Russian oil refineries, terminals and depots so hard that Reuters estimates refining capacity is down by roughly 700,000 barrels per day. Russia has rationed fuel in more than half its regions, suspended civilian sales in occupied Crimea, and seen diesel output fall another 10% in May. Fuel exports are temporarily banned as Moscow struggles to exploit high global prices driven by the war with Iran. (Foreign Policy, 06.25.26)
• French President Emmanuel Macron said French forces detained the oil tanker Deliver off Sicily for violating maritime law, the fourth Russian “shadow fleet” tanker France has seized this year after actions against the Grinch, Deyna and Tagor, and days after the UK’s first such interception. (Meduza, 06.25.26)

Friday, June 26, 2026

• The United States has fully reinstated oil sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil after several temporary waiversgranted in March to stabilize global markets amid the Iran war and Hormuz tensions. The last waiver expired on June 16 and was not renewed, presidential sanctions envoy Vladyslav Vlasiuk said. The October 2025 measures—now again “in full force”—aim to curb Russian oil revenues just as Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and logistics have driven processing rates to multi‑year lows and fueled domestic shortages. (Korrespondent, 06.26.26)
• Kazakhstan’s giant Karachaganak field cut crude output by more than a quarter, to about 25,000 tons (just over 180,000 barrels) per day from 34,000, after a Ukrainian drone strike shut Russia’s Orenburg gas-processing plant, which handles its gas. Because Karachaganak co-produces oil and gas, it cannot curb gas without reducing oil. Kazakhstan’s energy minister said Russia is repairing the plant but gave no restart date; Astana still targets 98 million tons of total oil production this year. (Bloomberg, 06.26.26)
• Zabaykalsky Krai has imposed Russia’s tightest fuel limits yet, capping retail sales at 15 liters (about 4 gallons) per vehicle and only directly into tanks, under a “heightened readiness” regime introduced June 25. Fuel companies must hold a one‑month emergency reserve and authorities ordered a push to convert vehicles to natural gas. More than 20 regions already restrict gasoline sales, typically at 20–30 liters per customer, amid a nationwide fuel crisis driven by Ukrainian strikes on refineries and the R‑280 logistics route. (Meduza, 06.26.26)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Erik Prince says Russian officials once approached him about effectively building a Russian version of Blackwater, asking him to show them “how to use our veterans” for unconventional and asymmetric warfare, but he claims he refused, calling himself “an unapologetic lover of western civilization” who would “defend it to the end.” (Financial Times, 06.26.26)
• On Russia, Prince says Vladimir Putin is “riding a tiger,” questioning how easily the Kremlin can wind down the war machine if that means sending hundreds of thousands of combat‑trained rural Russians back to poorer civilian lives. He also argues it is not in Washington’s interest for the war to drag on, warning that China’s PLA is learning rapidly from the conflict. e (Financial Times, 06.26.26)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

Friday, June 19, 2026

• Elvira Nabiullina reappeared in public to announce a smaller‑than‑expected key rate cut to 14.25%, after weeks of absence that fueled speculation about her future as Central Bank governor. Officials say she had a severe respiratory infection, but insiders tell the FT that her third term ends in June 2027 and potential successors such as Kremlin adviser Maxim Oreshkin and defense‑bank chief Pyotr Fradkov are already being discussed. The debate comes as high wartime spending, a strong ruble and double‑digit rates strain Russia’s economy. (Financial Times, 06.19.26)
• Russia’s central bank said policymakers may pause an easing cycle that’s lasted a year as fiscal uncertainty and fuel-market pressures counter the inflation relief from a stronger ruble spurred by the Middle East conflict. “We may need pauses in order to assess all incoming information and the effect of our previous decisions,” Governor Elvira Nabiullina said after officials cut the key rate less than expected. Fiscal policy and an increase in inflation risks “may limit the room for further rate cuts and require us to take a more restrained step,” she said. The Bank of Russia cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 14.25% on Friday. (Bloomberg, 06.19.26)
• Russia’s Central Bank cut its key rate by 25 basis points to 14.25%, surprising analysts who had expected a 50‑point move and a sixth straight larger cut. The board said underlying price growth is still in the 4–5% annualized range and lending has accelerated, while a more stimulative three‑year fiscal outlook “may require a higher key rate path” than April’s baseline. Economists attributed the modest cut to “heightened risks on the fiscal side,” with war spending and deficits surging. (Meduza, 06.19.26)
• Elvira Nabiullina re‑emerged after more than two weeks off sick to announce a key‑rate cut to 14% from 14.25%, even as she acknowledged that “the contribution of fiscal policy to the expansion of the money supply remains elevated” and will be “greater than we previously anticipated.” The article notes federal spending rose 17% year‑on‑year in January–May, the deficit has almost doubled to roughly $82 billion, and military outlays are up about 30% in Q1, forcing the central bank to juggle inflation control against Kremlin pressure for cheaper money. (New York Times, 06.20.26)
• Russia sold a top gold miner that it seized from a billionaire last year, though only after multiple attempts and for about half the price it originally sought. Moscow-based BTS-Most Holding will acquire a 67.2% stake in Yuzhuralzoloto PJSC and its affiliated companies after winning a Dutch auction with a bid of 93 billion rubles ($1.3 billion), the state-run Tass news service reported Friday, citing auction disclosures. The authorities had failed to attract bidders in previous attempts to sell the asset, which was initially offered at a starting price of 162 billion rubles. (Bloomberg, 06.19.26)
• The Moscow City Court sentenced historian and popular YouTuber Tamara Eidelman in absentia to eight years in prison for “rehabilitating Nazism” and spreading “false information” about the Russian military. Prosecutors cited a May 2024 video in which she allegedly gave “negative information” about Soviet actions in WWII and described veterans as untruthful and lacking independence, and a post about a Russian missile strike on Kyiv’s Okhmatdyt children’s hospital. Eidelman, designated a “foreign agent” in 2022, lives abroad. (Meduza, 06.19.26)

Monday, June 22, 2026

• Between 2022 and 2025, Russia’s real GDP per person rose about 12%, while official data show GDP down only 0.2% year-on-year in Q1 2026—distorted by a VAT hike from 20% to 22% that pulled purchases into late 2025. Alternative gauges (Goldman Sachs, VEB) point to sluggish growth but no recession, with overall goods exports in April slightly higher than a year earlier (The Economist, 06.22.26).
• Unemployment remains near a record low of about 2%, inflation has fallen to roughly half its recent peak above 10%, and real wages are about 25% higher than in 2019. Some firms and elites are thriving: Aeroflot flew passengers a total of 40 billion kilometers in the first five months of 2026, nearly 10% more than a year earlier, while sales of smuggled luxury cars include 80% more Lamborghinis than in 2025 (The Economist, 06.22.26).
• The government is spending an estimated 7–8% of GDP on the armed forces—around 3–4 percentage points above pre-war levels—yet fiscal stress is not yet acute: the budget shortfall is roughly 3% of GDP and can still be covered via higher taxes, rainy‑day funds and domestic borrowing. Barring harsher sanctions or a sharper oil and infrastructure shock, Russia’s economy is expected to grow about 1% in 2026 (The Economist, 06.22.26).
• Russian stocks tumbled over 4% on Monday to hit their lowest level in more than three years, extending a 15-week decline after the Central Bank’s modest interest rate cut last week signaled that high borrowing costs will likely persist longer than investors expected. During the afternoon trading session, the benchmark MOEX index dipped below 2,368 points for the first time since March 2023. The index continued its slide later in the day, shedding 4.42% to around 2,313 points. Among the worst performers was the digital real estate marketplace Tsian, which saw its shares plunge more than 14%. Aeroflot was another major loser, dropping over 6% as flight operations face constant disruptions at airports due to Ukrainian drone attacks. The MOEX has been on a downward trajectory since March and has lost more than 14% of its value since the start of the year. The current 15-week losing streak has now surpassed the decline recorded during the 2008 global financial crisis. Domestic equities are facing pressure following the Russian Central Bank’s decision on Friday to cut its key rate by just 25 basis points, according to Igor Dodonov, deputy head of equity analysis at Finam Financial Group. (MT/AFP, 06.22.26)

Tuesday, June 23, 2026

•  Russia’s federal budget faces a revenue shortfall of 2.1 trillion rubles ($28 billion), driven by weaker corporate profits, falling crude prices and a stronger ruble. While Moscow initially reaped windfalls from a surge in oil prices triggered by the war in Iran—when Russia’s benchmark Urals crude peaked at around $120 per barrel—the price has since tumbled to around $65 per barrel. (MT/AFP, 06.23.26)
• Russia’s construction industry boomed in the first years of the war in Ukraine as Russians sought refuge from sanctions, economic uncertainty and a weakening ruble by investing in property, while generous state-backed mortgages fueled demand. But these days, the sector is running into trouble as the government scales back subsidies and reins in spending amid its own budget strains. The latest round of restrictions targeted the subsidized 6% family mortgage program, limiting families to one mortgage between both spouses and banning the inclusion of third parties in mortgage agreements. Those measures caused the value of subsidized mortgages issued by Russian banks to fall 62% year-on-year in February, 8% in March and 20% in April. Total mortgage lending declined by between 9% and 21% in 2025, depending on the estimate, marking a second consecutive annual drop after the record-breaking year of 2023. (MT/AFP, 06.23.26)

Wednesday, June 24, 2026

• The State Duma on Wednesday passed a bill that would temporarily protect small businesses from a planned tax hike by freezing a key revenue threshold through 2029. Under the legislation, small businesses using Russia’s simplified tax system would only have to pay the national value-added tax (VAT) if their revenue exceeds 20 million rubles ($260,000).. (MT/AFP, 06.24.26)

Thursday, June 25, 2026

• A rights‑group study cited by Meduza says Russian courts accelerated state‑security prosecutions in early 2026, receiving 143 treason and espionage‑type cases in Q1 and resolving 62 (43%) versus 32 of 125 (26%) a year earlier, handing down at least 107 verdicts that convicted 110 people—about two defendants per working day—with treason accounting for 90% of convictions and average sentences of 15 years and five months. (Meduza, 06.25.26)
• Russia’s FSB hacked opposition politician Andrei Pivovarov’s iPhone 12 in June 2021 using Israeli company Cellebrite’s Universal Forensic Extraction Device to extract “all the information” from his phone while he was in custody, material he says investigators then used to fabricate evidence he continued leading the “undesirable” group Open Russia. (Meduza, 06.25.26)
• Russia’s Justice Ministry plans new restrictions on people labeled “foreign agents,” barring them from transferring real estate and intellectual property without payment and requiring all their transactions to go through a notary, to stop them using gifts or prenuptial agreements to bypass special ruble accounts where their income must be held. (Meduza, 06.25.26)

Friday, June 26, 2026

• Russians’ trust in Vladimir Putin has fallen to 69%, its lowest level since the full-scale invasion began, according to a June 19–21 survey by the Kremlin‑linked Public Opinion Foundation conducted just after a major Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow. The figure is down from 74% a week earlier; those saying they don’t trust him rose from 15% to 18%. Positive assessments of the government dropped to 44%, and the share noticing rising gasoline prices jumped from 38% to 48%. (Meduza, 06.26.26)
• Sergey Ivanov, a powerful Kremlin insider who once served as defense minister, Security Council secretary and presidential chief of staff—and was long considered a possible successor to Vladimir Putin—has died at 73, the VTB United League announced. Since 2016 he had been Putin’s special envoy for environmental affairs and remained on the Security Council. In 2007 he lost an internal succession struggle to Dmitry Medvedev. (Meduza, 06.26.26)

Defense and aerospace:

Friday, June 19, 2026

• Residents of Penza report mass roundups by draft offices and National Guard: checkpoints stop cars and public transit, military IDs are checked, and men are allegedly “being taken away to sign contracts.” Videos show women surrounding a minibus outside a draft office, shouting “They forced you, didn’t they?” while officers try to drive detainees away. The National Guard admits to a joint “sweep” that checked 80 drivers and issued nine draft summonses; regional authorities deny large‑scale raids. (Meduza, 06.19.26)
• Russian security forces and military enlistment officers are carrying out coordinated street raids across the Penza region to force local men into signing military contracts to fight in the war against Ukraine, according to exiled Russian media and anti-war groups. (MT/AFP, 06.19.26)

Tuesday, June 23, 2026

• In 2026, Russian defense spending is projected at about $180 billion, but in purchasing‑power terms effectively $400–500 billion, enabling Moscow to expand defense production and sign over 400,000 military contracts per year since 2023. Kofman assesses that Russia could reconstitute enough military power to pose a major threat within 5–7 years, with its now‑unconstrained strategic and tactical nuclear arsenal further heightening long‑term risk (Foreign Affairs, 06.23.26).

Wednesday, June 24, 2026

• Russian authorities are quietly discussing a new mobilization wave after the autumn State Duma elections as contract recruitment slumps, Meduza, iStories and Verstka report. Sign-ups fell to about 800 per day in early 2026, the lowest in three years, before rebounding to roughly 1,000 per day in Q2. Sources say units are filled with older, unhealthy recruits, some taken from prisons or “off the street,” with high desertion and chronic understaffing. Multiple insiders say “something could start” as early as October. (Meduza, 06.24.26)
• A Moscow court sentenced Maxim Kruglov, deputy chair of the opposition Yabloko party and former Moscow city legislator, to seven years in a penal colony for “military fakes” over two identical 2022 posts on Bucha, one year less than prosecutors requested. (Meduza, 06.24.26)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

Wednesday, June 24, 2026

• A Moscow court has ordered the arrest of former Aeroflot CEO Mikhail Poluboyarinov on charges of abuse of office, Russian outlet Mediazona reported. Details of the case remain unclear, but a similar charge recently put VEB.RF deputy chairman Artyom Dovlatov under house arrest over a 2016 bank bailout. Poluboyarinov, who led Aeroflot from 2020 until EU sanctions forced his departure in March 2022, now works at a Rostec subsidiary, which declined comment on his detention. (Meduza, 06.24.26)

Friday, June 26, 2026

• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the presidential administration has been informed of an open video appeal by Russian serviceman Alexander Lunin but has not yet reviewed it, calling the reported wording “fairly strange.” Lunin, a veteran of the full‑scale war from Voronezh region, publicly demanded a live Kremlin meeting with Vladimir Putin to reveal “the whole truth” about conditions in the country and the army, warning that if refused, “the army will turn its weapons against the Kremlin.” (Meduza, 06.26.26)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

Friday, June 26, 2026

• As Andy Burnham appears poised to succeed Keir Starmer as UK prime minister, diplomats say his sparse foreign‑policy record leaves allies guessing about Britain’s future stance on Ukraine and NATO, even as crises with Russia mount; insiders expect broad continuity with London’s current Ukraine policy by default unless he quickly sets a clear line. Allies quoted by the Financial Times likewise predict “a high level of continuity” on backing Ukraine and supporting NATO, though they see potential shifts in UK‑EU relations, with Burnham’s choice of foreign secretary and national security adviser likely to signal how closely he intends to align Britain with European partners on the war. (Bloomberg, 06.26.26; Financial Times, 06.26.26)

Ukraine:

Saturday, June 20, 2026

• A forthcoming book by New York Times reporters Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan says U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent privately urged Donald Trump not to host Volodymyr Zelenskyy in February 2025, calling the Ukrainian president “a little fucker,” “the special‑needs child for the Europeans” and “Mr. Bean on crack.” According to Regime Change, Bessent wanted Zelenskyy barred from the Oval Office until he signed a U.S.–Ukraine minerals deal; the eventual meeting turned into a public debacle as Trump and JD Vance berated Zelenskyy over aid and his refusal to wear a suit. (Guardian, 06.20.26)

Monday, June 22, 2026

• After Zelenskyy renamed a special forces unit “Heroes of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA),” Polish President Karol Nawrocki moved to revoke Zelenskyy’s Order of the White Eagle, calling the UPA responsible for WWII massacres of Poles; Zelenskyy said he had already returned the medal and stressed gratitude to the Polish people. In protest, top Ukrainian officials and three former presidents have renounced their own Polish honors, while Polish PM Donald Tusk warns the spat “delights Putin” and says only his countersignature can make the revocation legally effective. (Meduza, 06.22.26)
• Former officials of the Kirovohrad Regional Prosecutor’s Office are suspected of extorting a bribe of more than $88,000 in exchange for closing a criminal case… The NABU reported that a Tesla Model X P100D was part of the bribe, and that the former official later received an additional $13,500 through a trusted intermediary. The total amount of the improper benefit exceeded $88,000. The former deputy head of the regional prosecutor’s office was detained and notified of the charges against him. (LIGA.net, 06.22.26)

Wednesday, June 24, 2026

• Ukrainian authorities claim that they have concluded an investigation into a former prosecutor with Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office and a team of lawyers who are believed to have orchestrated a $3.5 million scheme to buy off the country’s elite anti-corruption prosecutors and judges… Authorities exposed the scheme and brought criminal charges for inciting bribery after the former prosecutor had already pocketed an initial $200,000 down payment from the suspect. (OCCRP, 06.24.26)

Thursday, June 25, 2026

• A new IBRiS poll for Radio ZET found that 59.7% of Poles oppose Ukraine’s EU membership, while 35.4% support it and 5% are undecided. Among government‑coalition voters (Civic Platform, the Left, PSL, Poland 2050), 64% back Ukraine joining the EU and 32% oppose it. Among opposition voters (Law and Justice, Confederation and allied parties), only 24% support membership and 73% oppose. The nationwide CATI survey of 1,068 adults was conducted June 12–13, 2026. (Ukrainska Pravda, 06.25.26)
• European Ombudsman Teresa Anjinho has opened an investigation into European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen over whether the Commission violated transparency rules by refusing access to messages in a secret group chat with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and leaders including Friedrich Merz, Emmanuel Macron, Giorgia Meloni and Keir Starmer, where strategies for dealing with U.S. President Donald Trump were reportedly discussed. (Meduza, 06.25.26)

Friday, June 26, 2026

• Poland’s rightwing opposition leader Jarosław Kaczyński urged Warsaw to block Ukraine’s EU accession talks, saying “Poland should begin blocking the clusters,” as he escalated a row over Kyiv’s decision to honor the WWII-era UPA and said he would return a Ukrainian medal; the move deepens a political clash with Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose government has backed opening negotiating clusters and is hosting a major Ukraine reconstruction conference. (Financial Times, 06.26.26)
• The family of the head of the Mykolaiv Territorial Service Center of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Hennadiy Pohoryelov, purchased luxury cars worth about 20 million hryvnias in 2025 alone. Moreover, almost none of their vehicles are older than the 2024 model year… his 21-year-old son, Serhiy Pohoryelov… [has] registered in his name… an Audi S8 worth about 8 million hryvnias, as well as a 116 square meter apartment in the Odesa residential complex “Elehiya Park…” Earlier, Hennadiy Pohoryelov had already come under scrutiny by the NACP. The official was unable to confirm the origin of cryptocurrency worth 48 million hryvnias, claiming that his Bitcoin wallet had allegedly been stolen. (Antikor, 06.26.26)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

Friday, June 19, 2026

• Volodymyr Zelenskyy demanded that Alexander Lukashenko “remove from [Belarusian] territory the equipment that corrects fire on Ukrainian civilians” along the two border regions with Ukraine, saying Belarus cannot claim neutrality while hosting Russian targeting systems. “I think he has a week to do it. If he does not, we will,” Zelenskyy warned. The comments came after Lukashenko apologized for earlier insults but insisted Belarus does not want to be drawn into the war. (Istories, 06.19.26)
• An Azerbaijani court sentenced eight Russian citizens detained amid the 2024–25 Moscow–Baku crisis to three or four years in prison on “large-scale drug trafficking” charges: Sergey Sofronov, Anton Drachev, Dmitry Bezugly, and Valery Dulov received four years; Dmitry Fedorov, Boris Timoshov, Alexey Vasilchenko, and Ilya Bezugly got three. Earlier, three other Russians were given three–four years for alleged cyber fraud and money laundering, after Azerbaijan detained 11 Russians in apparent retaliation for diaspora arrests in Russia. (Meduza, 06.19.26)

Saturday, June 20, 2026

• Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he will return Poland’s Order of the White Eagle, after President Karol Nawrocki moved to strip him of the country’s highest state honor over a dispute about renaming a Ukrainian special forces unit after UPA fighters. Zelenskyy said he would “not argue” with the decision but pointedly noted the medal still adorns figures such as “Catherine II, Benito Mussolini, and Gerhard Schröder,” adding that Ukrainians believed the award was really for “the Ukrainian People and our army” and that “the future will confirm the respect Ukrainians deserve.” (Financial Times, 06.20.26)
• Ukrainian ‌President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned neighboring Belarus -- a close ally of Russia -- to remove signaling equipment used by the Kremlin to target Ukraine or, he said, Kyiv would do the job itself. "What's the point of saying he [Belarus strongman Aleksandr Lukashenko] doesn't want to be in the war? Let him remove this equipment, let him switch it off. I think a week will be enough for him to do that," Zelenskyy told a Kyiv news conference on June 19. "If he doesn't do it, ⁠we'll do it," he said, without elaborating. Zelenskyy said the signal relay stations were in two Belarusian regions on the border with Ukraine and were used by Russian forces to help with the navigation process during attacks on Ukrainian civilians. The report could not independently be verified. Throughout the next day, Russia continued to pound Ukrainian cities, leaving at least four people dead in the country's partly occupied Zaporizhzhya region and at least one more person dead in the northern Kharkiv region. (RFE/RL, 06.20.26)
• Zelenskyy has issued his sharpest warning yet to Belarus, saying Kyiv knows of at least four relay stations in Gomel and Brest regions that guide Russian drones onto Ukrainian targets and that “one week should be enough” for Alexander Lukashenko to dismantle them. “If he doesn’t, we will,” Zelenskyy said, adding Belarus faces “extremely dangerous consequences” if it continues to act as a launch pad. He also noted Belarusian gasoline deliveries to Russia have increased 13-fold in early 2026 and said Ukraine knows “about every plant in Belarus that is working for Russia.” (Financial Times, 06.20.26)

Tuesday, June 23, 2026

• ISW assesses the Kremlin may try to invoke the Russia–Belarus Union State’s collective security framework to pull Belarus more directly into the war, using its population as a recruitment base to offset Russian manpower shortages. Under Union State rules, Belarusians and Russians have “single citizenship” and, in theory, equal rights and duties. Moscow could eventually claim Belarusians share the same civic obligation to serve in Russian or Union State military formations, effectively treating Belarus as a de facto annexed manpower pool. (ISW, 06.23.26)
• ISW says Russian-installed signal repeater stations in Belarus’s Gomel and Brest regions now enable precision Russian drone strikes deep into Ukraine, including against rail and energy infrastructure in Zhytomyr, Rivne and Volyn. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that four such repeaters extend Russian drones’ range and help bypass Ukrainian defenses. A Kremlin‑linked milblogger claims Russian forces conducted 21 strikes on Ukrainian rolling stock between May 16 and June 20–21, destroying more than 20 locomotives in Zhytomyr region alone. (ISW, 06.23.26)
• In Estonia’s Rõuge, a resident mowing his lawn on June 10 found a crashed drone carrying about five kilograms (11 pounds) of explosives; security officials say radar contact with drones in that area disappeared on June 3, suggesting it lay undetected for a week amid repeated cross‑border incursions linked to Russian electronic warfare. (Meduza, 06.23.26)
• The leader of the Georgian breakaway region of South Ossetia stepped down on Tuesday to become an adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, weeks after the ratification of a major integration agreement with Moscow. “Today, our task is to fulfill our cherished dream—to overcome our fate as a divided people and reunite with North Ossetia, reunite with Great Russia,” South Ossetia’s Moscow-backed president, Alan Gagloyev, said in a video address. The leadership shuffle comes on the heels of an agreement ratified last month by Putin, which seeks to align South Ossetia’s laws closer to Russia’s. (MT/AFP, 06.23.26)
• Armenia is sending a top security official to the Ukraine Recovery Conference, underscoring Yerevan’s tilt away from Russia as Moscow continues to step up economic pressure on its longtime ally. The secretary of Armenia’s Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, will travel to Gdansk, Poland, June 24–25 to attend the gathering, his office said Tuesday. (Bloomberg, 06.23.26)
• Former Belgorod region Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov has been nominated to serve as the Russian ambassador to the Georgian breakaway region of Abkhazia, a senior lawmaker in the State Duma said Tuesday. (MT/AFP, 06.23.26)
• Armenia was to send Security Council secretary Armen Grigoryan to the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdańsk this week, underscoring Yerevan’s drift from Moscow as Russia imposes sweeping trade restrictions on Armenian food, alcohol, seeds and fertilizers. (Bloomberg, 06.23.26)

Wednesday, June 24, 2026

• Russia is pressuring Belarus to deepen its role in the Ukraine war, seeking to use Belarusian territory both as a springboard for expanded operations in Ukraine and for hybrid actions against NATO states, current and former Russian and European officials say. Around 2,000 Russian troops and tactical nuclear weapons are already based in Belarus, and Moscow is using Belarusian ground stations to guide drones deeper into Ukraine. Kyiv has warned it will strike these sites if Minsk does not remove them. (Wall Street Journal, 06.24.26). 

Thursday, June 25, 2026

• Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko traveled to Russia on Friday for talks with Vladimir Putin amid heightened tensions with Ukraine over Belarus-based radar and repeater stations used to guide Russian drone attacks. The visit follows Lukashenko’s accusation that a Ukrainian strike hit a bus with a Belarusian youth team in Russia’s Bryansk region and Zelenskyy’s threat—then claim—Belarus had deactivated the stations. Minsk continues to insist it will not be “dragged into” the war even as it hosts Russian tactical nuclear weapons and forces. (The Moscow Times/AFP, 06.26.26)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian-installed signal repeater stations on the Belarus–Ukraine border, used to guide long‑range Russian drone strikes deep into western Ukraine, have been non‑operational since June 22. He said it is unclear whether Belarus fully dismantled the four repeaters in Gomel and Brest regions or only suspended their use, but noted this follows his ultimatum that Minsk disable them by June 26 or face Ukrainian strikes on the equipment. (ISW, 06.24.26)
• ISW says the Kremlin is intensifying pressure on Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko to expand Belarus’s role in the war, including allowing Russian drone launches from Belarus and effectively extending the front westward to force Ukrainian troop redeployments. The Wall Street Journal reports Moscow has threatened to cut financial support if Minsk refuses. ISW assesses Lukashenko is still resisting full involvement, quietly complying with some Ukrainian demands (like disabling repeaters) while trying to preserve what remains of Belarusian sovereignty. (ISW, 06.24.26)

IV. Quotable and notable:

• No significant developments.

Endnotes

1. “Connected by one long road that has for years now been the backbone of Ukraine's defense of the area, the so-called Kramatorskagglomeration, from Sloviansk to the north, then Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and finally Kostyantynivka, remains the main barrier to Moscow's long-held ambitions of conquering all of Donbas,” according to Kyiv Independent.
2. In January 2026 the Ukrainians were already almost out of Patriots, according to the The Guardian.

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

AI agents were used in production of this digest.

Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Iryna Rybakova/Ukraine's 93rd Mechanized Brigade via AP.