This Week’s Highlights

• Ukrainian forces will retreat from the strategic hub of Severodonetsk in the face of a brutal Russian offensive. Alongside the nearby town of Lysychansk, it is the only remaining city in the Luhansk province not yet controlled by Russian troops, according to the FT. 
• Decisions made by several senior personnel in Ukraine’s security service (SBU) may have cost the country control over the city of Kherson. Gen. Serhiy Kryvoruchko, head of Kherson’s SBU directorate, ordered his officers to evacuate the city before Russian troops stormed it, against Ukrainian president Zelensky’s orders, while Col. Ihor Sadokhin, head of the local office’s Anti-Terrorist Center, allegedly provided information to Russian forces heading north from Crimea, according to Politico.
• At a continued pace, the war in Ukraine will hit some 125,000 deaths if it lasts a year, well past the 80th percentile of wars as measured by The Correlates of War Project, according to Paul Poast of the University of Chicago.
• Peskov said on June 24 that Russia hopes Ukraine and Moldova’s ties with Moscow will not be worsened after the European Union granted the two countries candidate status for EU membership. In contrast, speaking on the same day, Lavrov said the EU and NATO are gathering a coalition for war with Moscow, according to Anadolu Agency.
• Xi and Putin took turns to virtually attend the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) and BRICS summit in Beijing, respectively. “Cooperation between China and Russia is currently ascending in all spheres,” Xi told the conference. In his turn, Putin told the BRICS summit that “the world needs the BRICS countries’ leadership in defining a unifying and positive course for forming a truly multipolar system of interstate relations.” During the virtual summit the BRICS leaders called for the preservation of the JCPOA and supported the P5’s “affirmation that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” 
• In his speech at SPIEF, Putin vowed that Russia would “undoubtedly” achieve its goals in Ukraine. He also asserted that the West’s “economic blitzkrieg” against Russia was failing as the ruble traded at its strongest level against the U.S. dollar since June 2015. In the speech, Putin also claimed the EU had lost $400 billion from sanctions.
• On June 26, Russia could default on its foreign debt for the first time this century due to sanctions that the EU have earlier imposed on Russia’s National Settlement Depository, according to the FT.
• The German government is considering converting parts of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline into a connection for an LNG terminal after 10 EU states, including Germany, declared early warnings of a gas emergency due to reductions in Russian gas supplies, according to Der Spiegel and the FT.
• Advanced persistent threat group Fancy Bear is targeting users with emails carrying a malicious RTF file called “Nuclear Terrorism A Very Real Threat” in an attempt to prey on victims’ fears that the invasion of Ukraine will escalate into a nuclear conflict, according to Threatpost.

NB: The next Russia in Review will appear on Thursday, June 30 due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday.

 

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Russian soldiers who control the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine are detaining workers and subjecting them to brutal interrogations in a search for possible saboteurs, Ukrainian officials say. Three weeks ago, one of the Russian soldiers shot a 53-year-old maintenance technician, Sergey Shvets. He was among the many workers Russians suspected of passing information to Ukraine's defense forces to undermine the Russian occupation. (NYT, 06.23.22, WSJ, 06.17.22)
• Russian nuclear power company Rosatom's director general Alexei Likhachev and the head of the Republic of Sakha Aysen Nikolayev have signed an agreement "on intentions and a procedure for organizing cooperation for promoting projects involving a small nuclear power plant." (WNN, 06.18.22)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• No significant developments.

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Russia will insist on reinstating the JCPOA without exceptions or additions, as well as on lifting all sanctions against Iran, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a press conference in Tehran on June 23, following talks with his Iranian counterpart. Lavrov also said Russia appreciates Iran’s "absolutely correct understanding" of the situation in Ukraine. (TASS, 06.24.22, Interfax, 06.23.22)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin will certainly visit Iran at some point, but the exact date is unknown, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has told TASS. On June 23, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian expressed hope that the Iran-Russia-Turkey summit will eventually convene in Tehran. (TASS, 06.24.22)
• Iran's Foreign Ministry says Josep Borrell, the European Union's top diplomat, was to arrive late on June 24 for a visit in an attempt to breathe new life into talks on reviving the JCPOA. (RFE/RL, 06.24.22) 

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Turkish and Russian military delegations met in Moscow on June 21, Turkey’s defense ministry said, part of an ongoing effort by Turkey to help unlock a Russian blockade of Ukrainian grain exports. (NYT, 06.22.22)
• Russian forces targeted at least two large North American-owned grain terminals in the Ukrainian port of Mykolaiv on June 22. (NYT, 06.22.22)
• In his speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 17 Putin dismissed Western accusations that Moscow is responsible for a sharp rise in global grain prices and claimed Russia was ready to guarantee the transit of ships exporting Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea. On June 24, Putin denied that Moscow is stopping Ukraine from exporting grain. (RFE/RL, 06.17.22, RFE/RL, 06.24.22)
• Members of Russia’s presidential human rights council and its prison watchdog say at least 358 Ukrainians have been held at Moscow detention centers since February. The Ukrainian detainees, dozens of whom are wanted in Ukraine on charges of grave crimes, risk being locked up for a legally mandated two years if Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on. (MT/AFP, 06.17.22)
• German authorities are investigating several hundred possible war crimes committed by Russian personnel in Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 06.18.22)
• More than 1,300 people were killed in the wider Kyiv region during the Russian occupation—86% of them in Bucha district, and 419 people in the suburb of Bucha itself, Andrii Nebytov, the head of the regional police, said. (NYT, 06.19.22)
• While in Ukraine, Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel said his country will support local and international investigations of "war crimes" committed in Ukraine to ensure that those responsible are "identified, prosecuted and punished." (RFE/RL, 06.21.22)
• The Nobel Peace Prize that Russian journalist Dmitry Muratov won has been auctioned off for a record-shattering $103.5 million, the proceeds of which will to go to UNICEF's Humanitarian Response for Ukrainian Children Displaced by War. (RFE/RL, 06.21.22)
• Alexander J. Drueke and Andy Tai Huynh, the two Americans who fought for Ukraine before being captured by Russia will not be granted the protections afforded to prisoners of war by the Geneva Conventions, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. The U.S. State Department said June 21 that Russian authorities have not provided any additional details on the whereabouts of the two men. In addition, a former U.S. Marine Corps officer named Grady Kurpasi has been missing in Ukraine since April. The State Department also confirmed that Stephen Zabielski was killed near the village of Dorozhnyanka in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhya region on May 15. (RFE/RL, 06.21.22, WP, 06.17.22, RFE/RL, 06.21.22, WP, 06.21.22)
• U.S. attorney general Merrick Garland made a surprise trip to Ukraine on June 21 and announced the appointment of Eli Rosenbaum, a veteran prosecutor known for investigating former Nazis, to lead American efforts in tracking Russian war criminals. (NYT, 06.21.22)
• An investigation conducted by Reporters Without Borders concluded that noted Ukrainian photographer Maks Levin, along with a soldier who was accompanying him for security, was executed by Russian troops near Kyiv in March. (RFE/RL, 06.22.22)
• U.N. experts have confirmed the full or partial destruction of 152 cultural and historic heritage sites in Ukraine since Russia invaded the country. (MT/AFP, 06.23.22)
• At a continued pace, the war in Ukraine will hit some 125,000 deaths if it lasts a year, well past the 80th percentile of wars as measured by The Correlates of War Project, an academic enterprise with data extending back to 1816, according to Paul Poast of University of Chicago. (WP, 06.23.22)

Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• Ukraine has claimed a successful strike on a tugboat of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Vasiliy Bekh, en route to Snake Island using Harpoon surface-to-sea missiles. (FT, 06.17.22)
• Britain’s prime minister, Boris Johnson, on June 24 paid a second, surprise, visit to Kyiv, offering a training program for the country’s military. (NYT, 06.17.22)
• Putin vowed in his speech at SPIEF on June 17 that Russia would “undoubtedly” achieve its goals in Ukraine. (MT, 06.17.22)
• Russia's Defense Ministry said in a statement that 6,956 "mercenaries and weapons specialists" from 64 countries had arrived in Ukraine since the start of the conflict and that "1,956 have already been destroyed." Another 1,779 have left Ukraine, the statement said. (MT, 06.17.22)
• Britain’s new top army general Patrick Sanders says Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed the outlook for Britain’s military, which must be capable of fighting alongside allies and ready to defeat Russia on the battlefield. (RFE/RL, 06.19.22)
• NYT examined more than 1,000 pictures taken by its own photojournalists and wire-service photographers working on the ground in Ukraine, as well as visual evidence presented by Ukrainian agencies. All told, there were more than 2,000 identifiable munitions, a vast majority of which were unguided. (NYT, 06.19.22)
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the world should be prepared for a war that drags on for years. (WSJ, 06.19.22)
• An entire Russian regiment—which when fully staffed could include several thousand troops—was forced to withdraw from the eastern front “to restore combat capability” after suffering heavy losses, the Ukrainian military said on Saturday. (NYT, 06.19.22)
• The surviving sailors of Russia’s sunken Moskva battleship could be deployed into battle again this month, Novaya Gazeta reported. (MT/AFP, 06.21.22)
• Russia has lost 2-4% of its military manpower since the start of the war, iStories reported, citing the most recent estimates from British intelligence and the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. (MT, 06.21.22)
• A fire broke out at an oil refinery in southern Russia’s Rostov region after a drone attack, state media said on June 22, in what military experts suggest could be part of apparent Ukraine-backed strikes behind enemy lines. (FT, 06.22.22)
• Ukraine has admitted striking an oil drilling platform in the Black Sea, saying June 21 it was being used by Russian troops as a military installation. (MT/AFP, 06.21.22)
• Ukraine has shared abundant evidence that Russians have added off-the-shelf GPS systems, such as Garmin, to the cockpit of its combat aircraft. (Defense Blog, 06.21.22) 
• Mass mobilization is “about to happen” in Russia with the Kremlin recruiting people in poorer regions to fight in Ukraine, according to western officials. (Guardian, 06.22.22)
• Ukraine’s armed forces have received the first batch of U.S.-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems. (FT, 06.23.22)
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said June 23 that Russia and Belarus must take “urgent joint measures” to enhance their defensive capabilities amid the West’s “unprecedented pressure” and “undeclared war” against them, Zvezda TV and Kommersant reported. Speaking at a meeting with his Belarusian counterpart, Shoigu expressed the view that the countries must heighten the battle-readiness of air defense systems and regional groupings of troops. (RM, 06.23.22) 
• The U.S. will provide Ukraine an additional $450 million in lethal aid. The package includes four high-mobility artillery rocket systems or HIMARS, patrol boats and artillery rounds. (FT, 06.24.22, BNE, 06.24.22)
• Dmitry Savluchenko, head of the Department of Youth and Sports for the Kherson region, was blown up in his car in what appeared to be part of a growing insurgent movement fueled by public anger as Moscow pushes to Russify the region. (NYT, 06.24.22)
• Zelensky is looking to replace Ivan Bakanov, who now runs Ukraine’s spy agency. Four officials close to the president and a Western diplomat said the concern is greater than just Bakanov—it’s also about the decisions of several senior agency personnel that may have cost the country the city of Kherson. Gen. Serhiy Kryvoruchko, head of Kherson’s SBU directorate, ordered his officers to evacuate the city before Russian troops stormed it, against Zelensky’s orders. Meanwhile, Col. Ihor Sadokhin, head of the local office’s Anti-Terrorist Center, is alleged by authorities to have tipped off Russian forces heading north from Crimea about the locations of Ukrainian mines and helped coordinate a flight path for the enemy’s aircraft. (Politico, 06.24.22)
• Ukrainian forces will retreat from Severodonetsk in the face of a brutal Russian offensive. Alongside the nearby town Lysychansk, it is the only remaining city in the Luhansk province not yet controlled by Russian troops. (MT/AFP, 06.24.22, FT, 06.24.22.)

Punitive measures related to Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Sberbank CEO Herman Gref told SPIEF 56% of Russian exports and 51% of imports accounted for countries that have imposed sanctions against the country. (MT/AFP, 06.17.22)
• In his speech at SPIEF, Putin slammed the West’s “economic blitzkrieg,” saying it was failing. He claimed the EU had lost $400 billion from the sanctions and vowed that Russia’s economy could flourish, promising to cut red tape, the frequency of audits and the jailing of executives in pre-trial investigations.  (FT, 06.17.22, NYT, 06.17.22, MT, 06.17.22, RFE/RL, 06.17.22)
• Google LLC, the Russian legal entity of Google, has filed for its own bankruptcy. (Meduza, 06.17.22)
• U.S. authorities have sailed a seized $325 million superyacht linked to Russian billionaire Suleiman Kerimov to Hawaii—a big win as the U.S. looks to confiscate Russian assets and punish oligarchs for their country’s invasion of Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 06.17.22) 
• Lithuania has begun a ban on the rail transit of goods subject to EU sanctions to the Russian far-western exclave of Kaliningrad, the Baltic nation said June 18. (RFE/RL, 06.18.22) 
  • Patrushev, Russia’s security council secretary and one of Putin’s closest confidants, said during a trip to Kaliningrad on June 21 that the “consequences will have serious negative influence on the population of Lithuania,” according to Interfax. (FT, 06.21.22)
  • Josep Borrell, the EU’s high representative, told reporters on June 23 that the union was not seeking to prevent traffic from travelling across Lithuania to Kaliningrad, but that it would insist on enforcing its sanctions on the country’s products. (FT, 06.23.22)
  • Russia's foreign ministry on June 24 blamed the United States for Lithuania’s ban. (Reuters, 06.24.22)
• Germany is preparing measures to curb that country's consumption of natural gas and pivot away from already reduced Russian gas deliveries. Berlin is providing billions of euros in funding to support using less gas for power and industry. Storage facilities will also be filled further ahead of the onset of winter. (RFE/RL, 06.19.22.)
  • Germany will significantly increase its use of highly polluting coal to preserve energy supplies ahead of the winter. (FT, 06.19.22)
  • The German government is considering converting parts of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline into a connection for a liquefied natural gas terminal. (Reuters, 06.24.22)
  • Ten EU states including Germany, Sweden and Italy have declared early warnings of a gas emergency after Russia reduced supplies in recent days, the European Commission said. (FT, 06.23.22)
  • The EU last month set a target for member states to make sure gas storage facilities are 80% full by Nov. 1. They are currently 52% full, according to global financial services company ING. (WP, 06.18.22)
• International sanctions imposed over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine have curbed supplies from Russia, the world’s largest exporter of softwood timber, and Belarus, while the conflict has severely hampered production in Ukraine. The three countries accounted for a quarter of the worldwide timber trade last year. (FT, 06.19.22)
• The Moscow City Court has rejected an appeal filed by Meta Platforms against a lower court's decision to label the company an extremist organization, a move that effectively outlaws its Facebook and Instagram. (RFE/RL, 06.21.22)
• Russia’s Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Igor Zubov said that Russia lacks about 170,000 IT specialists. According to the official, the shortage of personnel was a result of the mass migration of specialists abroad. (Meduza, 06.21.22)
• IKEA is moving to close its stores in Russia. Vedomosti reported that IKEA management told labor union representatives that it will hold an online sale of its home goods currently stocked in its Russian warehouses from July 1. (MT/AFP, 06.22.22)
• Telecoms equipment maker Cisco will wind down its business in Russia and Belarus. (Reuters, 06.23.22)
• U.S. sports apparel giant Nike says it is fully quitting the Russian market, three months after suspending its operations in the country. (RFE/RL, 06.23.22)
• A notice posted on the U.K. government website on June 23 outlined new Russia restrictions, which include export bans on a range of goods and technology, the export of jet fuel and the export to or use in Russia of British pounds or euros. (RFE/RL, 06.23.22)
• Russia has made two interest payments on dollar-denominated debt in rubles. (MT/AFP, 06.23.22)
• The first shipments of smartphones and game consoles under Russia’s so-called “parallel import” scheme have arrived in the country. The scheme was designed as a way to maintain imports of consumer goods into Russia despite Western sanctions and an exodus of Western firms from the Russian market. (MT/AFP, 06.23.22)
• The Moscow Times spoke with six Westerners who have been interrogated by security officials after flying into Russia since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, adding to growing evidence that foreigners—particularly those from Europe or the U.S.—are being singled out for questioning. (MT/AFP, 06.23.22)
• Wally Adeyemo, U.S. deputy treasury secretary, welcomed UAE institutions’ commitment to preventing money laundering, but underscored the need “for vigilance and proactive action” in combating Russian sanctions evasion, including in the UAE. (FT, 06.22.22)
• Global companies have racked up more than $59 billion in losses from their Russian operations, with more financial pain to come as sanctions hit the economy, according to public statements and securities filings. (WSJ, 06.23.22)
• Russia could default on its foreign debt for the first time this century. About $100 million worth of interest on Russian government debt is due to bondholders by the night of June 26. The payments were sent to Russia’s National Settlement Depository (NSD). It would then typically pass them to international securities depositories. However, the EU imposed sanctions on NSD in early June, shutting off western institutions’ ability to receive payment. (FT, 06.24.22)

Ukraine-related negotiations:

• Ukraine is engaged in “complex” negotiations to free its ports from a Russian naval blockade, Zelensky said June 20, after the EU's top diplomat accused Russia of committing a "real war crime" by blocking grain exports from the ports. (RFE/RL, 06.20.22)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Putin reprised his critique of the United States as a declining power in his speech at SPIEF and claimed Russia would be playing a greater role in what he called an emerging new world order. "Nothing will be as it used to be in global politics," he proclaimed. (FT, 06.17.22, NYT, 06.17.22, MT, 06.17.22, RFE/RL, 06.17.22)
• Moves and posturing by NATO may have “somehow provoked, or not prevented” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to Pope Francis. (Bloomberg, 06.14.22)
• Canada has announced a C$4.9 billion ($3.8 billion) investment to modernize the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), the joint U.S.-Canadian defense organization designed to detect security threats. (RFE/RL, 06.21.22)
• Divisions over military aid for Ukraine have triggered a split in Italy's biggest parliamentary party. The 5 Star Movement, split on June 21 night as dozens of lawmakers defected to a new group led by Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio, who supports continued military aid for Ukraine. (WSJ, 06.22.22) 
• Estonian PM Kaja Kallas told reporters on June 22 that the alliance’s existing defense plans for the three Baltic states was to allow them to be overrun before liberating them after 180 days. “If you compare the sizes of Ukraine and the Baltic countries, it would mean the complete destruction of countries and our culture.” she said. (FT, 06.22.22)
• EU leaders meeting in Brussels approved Ukraine’s candidate status on June 23. Moldova was also given candidate status. (Guardian, 06.23.22)
  • The Kremlin said June 24 it hopes that Ukraine and Moldova’s already strained ties with Moscow will not be worsened by the countries' new status as candidates for European Union membership. (MT/AFP, 06.24.22)
  • The EU and NATO are gathering a coalition for war with Moscow, Lavrov said on June 24 in Baku, commenting on the granting of EU candidacy status to Ukraine and Moldova. (AA.com.tru, 06.24.22)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• “Cooperation between China and Russia is currently ascending in all spheres. Our bilateral trade reached $65.8 billion over the first five months of this year. We can expect to attain new records by year-end. This is evidence of the high resilience and ingenious potential of Chinese-Russian cooperation,” Chinese President Xi Jinping told a SPIEF session via a video link on June 17. (Kremlin.ru, 06.17.22)
• China delivered nearly $32 million worth of passenger vehicles to Russia in May, down from $84.6 million in April and $190.7 million in March, according to Chinese customs data cited by Kommersant. (MT/AFP, 06.21.22)
• Chinese Customs Administration data showed the world's second-largest economy importing more than 8.4 million tons of Russian oil, up 55% on May 2021. The uptick made Russia China's main source of oil for the month, surpassing Saudi Arabia. According to Rystad Energy, in May, India and China received roughly 2.4 million barrels of Russian crude a day. Russia has replaced Saudi Arabia as India’s No. 2 source of foreign oil after Iraq. (RFE/RL, 06.21.22, NYT, 06.21.22)
  • “One of the consequences of this conflict is a fundamental realignment of the global energy system, trading relationships, and geopolitical alignments, with China and India more closely aligned with Russia,” said Jason Bordoff, who was an adviser to U.S. President Barack Obama. (NYT, 06.24.22)
• The Beijing Declaration, which BRICS leaders adopted on June 23, said: 
  • “We express our support for negotiations in bilateral and multilateral formats to resolve all issues pertaining to the Korean Peninsula ... We reiterate the need to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue through peaceful and diplomatic means in accordance with the international law, and stress the importance of preserving the JCPOA and the UNSCR 2231.” (FMPRC.gov.cn, 06.23.22)
  • “We reaffirm our commitment to a world free of nuclear weapons and stress our strong commitment to nuclear disarmament ... We note the [P5] Joint Statement ... on Preventing Nuclear War and Avoiding Arms Races on 3 January 2022, in particular the affirmation that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”  (FMPRC.gov.cn, 06.23.22)
  • “We look forward to further deepening counter-terrorism cooperation and reaffirm the sole authority of the U.N. Security Council for imposing sanctions.” (FMPRC.gov.cn, 06.23.22)
  • Chinese leader Xi Jinping delivered a virtual keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the virtual BRICS Business Forum summit in which he decried sanctions as "weaponizing" the global economy and urged unity in the face of financial challenges.  (CNN, 06.23.22)
  • Putin said ahead of the summit that "the permanent implementation of new politically motivated sanctions" contradict "common sense and basic economic logic." He then said during the summit that “the world needs the BRICS countries’ leadership in defining a unifying and positive course for forming a truly multipolar system of interstate relations.”  (MT/AFP, 06.22.22, Kremlin.ru, 06.23.22)
• In 2018, Putin announced that he had given the Chinese leader a Russian banya as a present. The construction of the bathhouse for Xi Jinping was organized and paid for by a company that finances the Wagner PMC. (Dossier.center, June 2022)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms control:

• Both Biden and the Kremlin have recently expressed a desire to resume the U.S.-Russia dialogue on strategic stability at some point. (S. Pifer’s commentary for Brookings, 06.16.22)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• On June 15, Russia carried out airstrikes at the al-Tanf garrison, near Syria’s border with Jordan, where U.S. troops have a train-and-advise mission with local fighters. Russia notified the U.S. through a communications line that it was conducting the airstrikes in response to an alleged attack against Syrian government forces. The advance notice of the strike suggested to U.S. officials that the Russian military wasn’t actively targeting American troops but was harassing the U.S. mission in Syria. (WSJ, 06.19.22)

Cyber security:

• Google executive Jared Cohen warned the U.N. Security Council June 21 that cyberattacks, disinformation and other forms of information warfare being waged in Ukraine are a “crystal ball" for future problems elsewhere. (Business Standard, 06.21.22)
• Russian intelligence agencies have increased the pace of cyberattacks against nations that have provided aid to Ukraine, according to Microsoft, which said it had observed Moscow-backed hacking attempts in over 40 countries. The U.S. saw the most of any country outside Ukraine, accounting for 12% of the global total since the war in Ukraine began. (WSJ, 06.22.22)
• Putin had to postpone his speech at SPIEF for an hour due to what the Kremlin has described as "powerful DDoS attacks on SPIEF accreditation systems." (Meduza, 06.17.22)
• Advanced persistent threat group Fancy Bear is behind a phishing campaign that seeks to exploit a known one-click Microsoft flaw. Fancy Bear’s Follina campaign targets users with emails carrying a malicious RTF file called “Nuclear Terrorism A Very Real Threat” in an attempt to prey on victims’ fears that the invasion of Ukraine will escalate into a nuclear conflict, researchers said in the post. (Threatpost, 06.24.22)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Effective this week, Russian officials will intermittently shut down the Black Sea terminal that handles two thirds of Kazakhstan's oil exports in order to find unexploded ordnance on the seabed, Kommersant reports. It follows just days after Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev told a SPIEF panel in the presence of Putin: “We do not recognize either Taiwan, or Kosovo, or South Ossetia, or Abkhazia. Obviously, this principle will apply to quasi-state associations, which, in our opinion, is what Luhansk and Donetsk are." (Maritime Executive, 06.19.22)
• Also see section on the punitive measures above.

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Marc Fogel, a former employee of the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, has been handed a 14-year prison term in Russia for illegal drug trafficking after he was caught entering the country with medical marijuana he says was prescribed to him after back surgery. (RFE/RL, 06.17.22)
• Authorities in Moscow said on June 22 that they have changed the official address of the U.S. Embassy building in the Russian capital to 1 Donetsk People's Republic Square. (MT/AFP, 06.22.22)
• Dozens of organizations representing people of color, women and LGBTQ voters called on Biden on June 22 to strike a deal for the release of Brittney Griner, the WNBA star who has been detained in Russia since February. (NYT, 06.23.22)

 

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• “If nothing is done in the current situation, then … the return of Russia’s economy to the level of 2021 could take about 10 years,” Sberbank CEO Herman Gref said at SPIEF. Under its so-called “inertia” scenario, Sberbank forecasts Russia’s GDP to fall by 7% in 2022 and 10.3% in 2023 compared with 2021, when it grew by 4.7% to $1.77 trillion. (MT/AFP, 06.17.22)
• On June 21, the ruble traded at its strongest level against the U.S. dollar since June 2015. It has gained about 35% so far this year, beating every major currency, and has more than doubled from its post-invasion low. (NYT, 06.21.22)
• Gennady Burbulis, a close associate of former Russian President Boris Yeltsin, who was one of the signatories to an agreement ending the Soviet Union, died June 19 aged 76. (MT/AFP, 06.21.22)

Defense and aerospace:

• Four people are dead after a Russian military cargo plane crashed when it was forced into an emergency landing in a field near the city of Ryazan, southeast of Moscow. (RFE/RL, 06.24.22)
• Russia plans to scale up industrial drone production following China’s exit from the commercial market and increasing demand from the Russian military in Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 06.24.22)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• No significant developments.

 

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, has ruled out a return to any kind of normal relationship with Russia in the wake of its war of aggression against Ukraine. “Partnership . . . with Putin’s aggressive, imperialist Russia is inconceivable for the foreseeable future,” he told MPs. (FT, 06.23.22)
  • Jens Plötner, Scholz’s foreign policy adviser, said the discussion about helping Ukraine was driven by a “feverishness that misses the big issues.” “You can fill a lot of newspaper pages with 20 Marders, but there are somehow fewer articles about what our relationship with Russia should be like in future,” he said. (FT, 06.21.22)
• A median of 9% of respondents questioned by Pew in 18 countries said they have confidence in Putin “to do the right thing regarding world affairs.” That compares with 18% confidence in Xi and 60% for Biden and 59% for Scholz. The only country where a majority of respondents expressed confidence in Putin and favorability toward Russia was Malaysia. With the exception of South Korea, Biden saw a double-digit decrease in the percentage of people who have confidence in him as a world leader. Pew conducted its survey among 3,581 panelists in North America, Europe and the Pacific region March 21 through March 27. (FP, 06.22.22, MT/AFP, 06.23.22)
• Russian mercenaries have mounted a series of bloody attacks on artisanal mines in the lawless border zones between Sudan and the Central African Republic in an effort to plunder the region’s valuable gold trade, witnesses and experts have said. Dozens of miners are thought to have died in at least three major attacks this year allegedly involving mercenaries working for the Wagner Group. (Guardian, 06.22.22)

Ukraine:

• Ukraine will introduce a visa regime for Russian citizens seeking to enter the country from July 1. (FT, 06.17.22)
• A court in Kyiv has banned the pro-Russian Opposition Platform--For Life political party led by jailed Kremlin-friendly politician Viktor Medvedchuk. (RFE/RL, 06.20.22)
• Russian authorities have launched a campaign to recruit essential workers for the “reconstruction” of eastern Ukrainian territories occupied by its forces, according to public online job postings and news reports. (MT/AFP, 06.24.22)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Since U.S. troops left Afghanistan last August the Pentagon has been desperate to augment its "over-the-horizon" ability to track from afar and strike emerging terrorist threats—ideally with some kind of basing in Central Asia to launch drones and other surveillance flights. But on a trip through the region this month, the U.S. military's top commander overseeing Central Asia didn't even broach the subject with local political and military leaders. "Their top three concerns are: Afghanistan, Afghanistan, Afghanistan," Army Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla said. (WP, 06.21.22) 
• Armenia's Defense Ministry has said one of its troops was killed on the border with Azerbaijan overnight on June 18-19 but did not provide details. (RFE/RL, 06.20.22)
• In Baku on June 24 Lavrov announced the second bilateral meeting on the border delimitation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which will take place in Moscow. (AA.com.tru, 06.24.22)
• Tens of thousands of people demonstrated in Tbilisi on June 20 in a show of support for Georgia’s EU membership bid after the European Commission recommended deferring its candidacy. (RFE/RL, 06.21.22)
• A member of the Pussy Riot protest group, Olga Borisova, has been refused entry to Georgia, where she has been living since fleeing Russia, after she tried to return to the country from Turkey. (RFE/RL, 06.21.22)
• Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev has proposed amendments to the constitution that, among other things, may allow him to seek a third term in office. (RFE/RL, 06.21.22)
• Turkmen officials have resumed issuing travel passports to residents with dual Turkmen-Russian citizenship following President Serdar Berdymukhammedov's visit to Russia earlier this month. (RFE/RL, 06.21.22)
• Samat Abish, a nephew of former Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, is a person of interest in an unspecified criminal case in Kazakhstan. (RFE/RL, 06.23.22)
• The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is lending Moldova 300 million euros ($316 million) to help it secure additional gas reserves. (RFE/RL, 06.24.22)      
• Belarusian defense officials say the country is resuming its verification work stemming from international arms-control treaties for the first time in two years. Minsk suspended such activities early in the COVID-19 pandemic. (RFE/RL, 06.20.22)
• Well-known Belarusian philosopher Uladzimer Matskevich has been sentenced to five years in prison over his active participation in public events questioning the official results of the August 2020 presidential poll. (RFE/RL, 06.24.22)

 

IV. Quotable and notable

• “All these mercenaries prevent the armed forces from increasing the popularity and political weight of the military within Russia. The war is conducted by unknown soldiers and officers, but the ‘volunteers’ are represented in official media, mercenaries are represented in their social media and Chechens are represented on TikTok,” said Russian military analyst Pavel Luzin. (Bellingcat, 06.17.22)
• Mikhail Khodorkovsky said: “With all respect to Henry Kissinger, he has a notion of Putin as some kind of projection of Leonid Brezhnev . . . [But] Brezhnev was no gangster. Second, Brezhnev fought [in World War II]. He, and people around him, realized that war is the worst thing. Putin has never fought.”  (FT, 06.18.22)
• Russian journalist and researcher Kamil Galeev wrote: "Chinese-Russian alignment is much like Schroedinger's cat. It's alive and dead at the same time.” (Twitter, 06.22.22)