6 Things to Know

1. The DPRK-RF Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, signed by Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin on June 19, commits Moscow and Pyongyang to provide military aid to each other in case of an armed invasion “with all means in [their] possession.” Notably, the pact, as released by the DPRK, also commits Russia and North Korea to jointly combat “such challenges and threats as ... illegal circulation of money, legalization of income obtained in a criminal way ... [and] financing of WMD proliferation.” During his visit to Pyongyang, Putin also said he would consider supplying high-precision weapons to North Korea, while Kim reiterated North Korea’s “unconditional support” for Moscow, according to FT.
2. In the past week, Russia and NATO have taken turns rattling their nuclear sabers. First NATO’s SG Jens Stoltenberg told Telegraph in an interview published June 16 that the alliance is in talks to deploy more nuclear weapons in the face of a growing threat from Russia and China. Three days later, deputy head of Russia’s MFA Sergei Ryabkov issued yet another warning that Russia is working on modifying its nuclear doctrine in response to the “collective West’s” behavior during the Russian-Ukrainian war. A day after that, Vladimir Putin himself weighed in, asserting that “we are still thinking about what can be changed in this [nuclear] doctrine and how” in response to developments that include the “adversary’s” work on developing low-yield nuclear warheads. 
3. In the past month, Russian forces have gained 55 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 3 square miles, according to the June 18, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. 
4. The “Joint Communiqué on a Peace Framework” adopted at the June 15-16 Summit on Peace in Ukraine covered only three of the most uncontroversial points of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s initial 10-point peace formula: food security, nuclear security and the return of prisoners and children. The June 16 declaration also implied that Russia needs to participate in whatever follow-up may occur. Following the summit, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff said that Ukraine may invite Russia to the next meeting to work out a formula for future peace talks, according to Bloomberg.
5. Europe’s gas imports from Russia have exceeded supplies from the U.S. for the first time in almost two years, FT reported. Last month, Russian-piped gas and LNG shipments accounted for 15% of total supply to the EU, U.K., Switzerland, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia, while the U.S.’s share of supplies of gas to these countries dropped to 14%, according to FT. While taking more gas from Russia, the EU is at the same time planning its first move to restrict Russian LNG operations, according to Bloomberg.
6. Monitors of press freedoms in Ukraine are alarmed by what they say are increasing restrictions and pressures on the local media going well beyond the country’s wartime needs, NYT reported. “Despite the pressure, Ukrainian journalists have scored scoops, including reports on issues such as corruption, that have led to resignations and arrests,” according to NYT. In fact, nearly every month a new case of high-profile arrests and dismissals in Ukraine is reported, according to WP. Yet, even as Ukrainian officials insist they are battling corruption, the West says it is still not enough, WP writes.  

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• “Ukrainian nuclear power plants and installations, including Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, must operate safely and securely under full sovereign control of Ukraine and in line with IAEA principles and under its supervision.” according to the June 16 Joint Communiqué on a Peace Framework adopted at the Summit on Peace in Ukraine. (RM, 06.17.24)
• Rosatom expects to remove all spent fuel from the Gremikha Naval Base before the end of 2024. (D. Kovchegin’s Russian Nuclear Security Update, 06.18.24)
• A weekly newspaper published by Mayak, Russia’s defense nuclear fuel cycle enterprise, published a job announcement for the position of a guard in Atomokhrana, Rosatom’s pro-force organization. The advertised salary starts at 35,000 rubles (~$400 as of June 17, 2024) and benefits. (D. Kovchegin’s Russian Nuclear Security Update, 06.18.24)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• The DPRK-Russia Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, signed by Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin in Pyongyang on June 19, included the following clauses:

• The sides ... shall permanently maintain and develop the comprehensive strategic partnership.

• In case a direct threat of armed invasion is created against any one of the two sides, the two sides shall immediately operate the channel of bilateral negotiations for the purpose of adjusting their stands at the request of any one side and discussing feasible practical measures to ensure mutual assistance for removing the prevailing threat.
• In case any one of the two sides is put in a state of war by an armed invasion from an individual state or several states, the other side shall provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay in accordance with Article 51 of the U.N. Charter and the laws of the DPRK and the Russian Federation.
• Each side is obliged not to conclude with any third country any agreement encroaching upon the other side's sovereignty, security, territorial inviolability.
• In case any third country takes unilateral compulsory measures against one side, the two sides shall reduce the danger and make practical efforts to eliminate or minimize their direct or indirect impact on the mutual economic ties.
• The two sides shall cooperate with each other in combating such challenges and threats as international terrorism, extremism, multinational organized crime, human traffic, hostage taking, illegal immigration, illegal circulation of money, legalization (laundering) of income obtained in a criminal way, financing of terrorism, financing of WMD proliferation.
• The two sides shall cooperate with each other in the field of international information security. (KCNA, 06.20.24)
  • Putin said at a press conference in Hanoi: [With North Korea] “we replicated the 1960, or the 1962, treaty after it expired ... South Korea, the Republic of Korea, has nothing to worry about because assistance in the military sphere under the treaty that we have signed will only be provided in the event of an aggression against either signatory party. To the best of my knowledge, the Republic of Korea is not planning to launch an aggression against the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Consequently, there is no need to fear our cooperation in this sphere. Regarding possible deliveries of lethal weapons to the combat operations zone in Ukraine, this would be a grave mistake. I hope that it will not happen. If it happens, we will also make the necessary decisions that the leadership of South Korea will hardly welcome.” (Kremlin.ru, 06.20.24)
• Putin promised unspecified technological help to North Korea, which could allow it to advance its nuclear weapons program. Putin declared ''Pyongyang has the right to take reasonable measures to strengthen its own defense capability, ensure national security and protect sovereignty''—though he did not address whether those measures included further developing the North's nuclear weapons. Putin said he would consider supplying high-precision weapons to North Korea. (NYT, 06.19.24, FT, 06.21.24)
• Kim reiterated North Korea’s “unconditional support” for Moscow, adding that Russia had an “important role and mission in preserving the strategic stability and balance in the world.” (FT, 06.19.24)¹
  • Japan and South Korea have sounded the alarm over deepening military collaboration between Russia and North Korea after Putin and Kim signed a far-reaching strategic partnership that included mutual assistance against “aggression.” (FT, 06.20.24)
    • “We will reconsider the issue of supplying weapons to Ukraine,” South Korean national security adviser Chang Ho-jin told reporters late on June 20 after Putin said he would consider supplying high-precision weapons to North Korea. (FT, 06.21.24)
    • South Korea summoned Russia's ambassador to Seoul to protest the agreement signed by Putin and Kim. (MT/AFP, 06.21.24)
    • “We are seriously concerned about the fact that President Putin did not rule out military-technical cooperation with North Korea,” Yoshimasa Hayashi, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s chief cabinet secretary, said. (NYT, 06.20.24)
  • The Russia-DPRK pact creates more headaches for Beijing by appearing to deepen the semblance of a trilateral axis between China, Russia and North Korea, which China has sought to avoid. (NYT, 06.20.24)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• No significant developments.

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• On June 19, Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) said that it has identified five Russian military officers suspected of being involved in the execution of four Ukrainian soldiers who were surrendering in May in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region. (RFE/RL, 06.19.24)
• Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin reported on June 18 that his office has received confirmation that Russian forces beheaded a Ukrainian soldier in the Volnovakha district in eastern Ukraine, and displayed the severed head on a damaged Ukrainian vehicle. (ISW, 06.19.24)
• At least 30 Ukrainian clergymen of various faiths have been killed and 26 held captive by Russian forces since the start of the invasion, according to a February report by the International Religious Freedom or Belief Alliance, an international body that promotes protection of religious minority groups. (WSJ, 06.16.24)
• Ten more Ukrainian children, who were living in temporarily occupied territories, have been returned home. They and their families resided in the Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, according to the Commissioner for Human Rights of the Verkhovna Rada, Dmytro Lubynets. (RBC.ua, 06.20.24)
• Russian journalist Nikita Tsitsagi was killed in a drone attack in the Russian-controlled part of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, his news organization said. The Russian Foreign Ministry said a Ukrainian drone had "purposefully hit the Russian journalist preparing a report in the area." (RFE/RL, 06.16.24)
• In the short term, Ukraine’s Ukrhydroenergo plans to restore 1 GW of capacity for the normal passage of the autumn-winter period. (Korrespondent.net, 06.19.24)
• U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris was to announce a $1.5 billion package of humanitarian assistance and aid to repair Ukraine’s energy sector as she met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy June 15 at a summit in Switzerland on Russia’s war. The package includes $500 million in new funding for energy assistance and $324 million already earmarked for Ukraine that will be redirected to assist in stabilizing and rebuilding the country’s power sector, the White House said. (Bloomberg, 06.15.24)
• The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is studying increased support to help Ukraine overcome a critical shortage of electricity as a third winter in wartime approaches. The EBRD this month earmarked €300 million ($321 million) to help state-owned energy companies repair damaged facilities and build new decentralized generation capacity. (Bloomberg, 06.17.24)
• Estimates suggest that over 90% of the housing blocks in central Mariupol were damaged in some way in the full-scale invasion in 2022. (The Economist, 06.19.24)
• For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past month, Russian forces have gained 55 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 3 square miles, according to the June 18, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force, 06.18.24)
• On June 15, Ukrainian shelling on the Russian border town of Shebekino killed five people and wounded several, Belgorod region Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov said. (MT/AFP, 06.15.24)
• On June 17, the Strategic Command of Ukraine's armed forces said that its forces had damaged 15 Russian air defense systems in Crimea since May. Russian S-300, S-350 and S-400 antiaircraft divisions have been affected, the Strategic Command said. (RFE/RL, 06.17.24)
• On June 17, an overnight drone attack set several oil storage tanks ablaze near the town of Azov in southern Russia, sparking a large fire, local officials said. (MT/AFP, 06.18.24)
  • On June 18, a reliable source in the Ukrainian security forces said Ukraine's main security and counterintelligence agency was behind an overnight drone attack that ignited a major fire at an oil depot in the southern Russian city of Azov. (RFE/RL, 06.18.24)
• On the night of June 19-20, Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against at least two oil facilities in Russia. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) conducted drone strikes against the Tambovnefteprodukt fuel and lubricants warehouse in Tambov Oblast and the Lukoil-Yugnefteprodukt "Enemska" oil depot in the Adygea Republic. (ISW, 06.20.24)
• On June 20, Russia attacked Ukraine with missiles and drones overnight, damaging energy infrastructure and prompting even more power blackouts. "Equipment was damaged at energy facilities in the Vinnytsya, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and Kyiv regions," Ukrenerho said. (RFE/RL, 06.20.24. Bloomberg, 06.20.24)
• On June 20, an overnight Ukrainian drone attack in southern Russia’s Krasnodar region killed a woman. (MT/AFP, 06.20.24)
• On June 20, Russian forces used the new FAB-3000 M-54 bomb with a unified planning and correction module to strike Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv Oblast for the first time, representing a new Russian capability with a high potential for destruction. (ISW, 06.20.24)
• On the night of June 21, Ukraine drones attacked the Afipsky, Ilsky, Krasnodar and Astrakhan oil refineries, according to Ukraine’s General Staff. (Korrespondent.net, 06.21.24)
• On June 21, Russian forces targeted residential areas in Donetsk Oblast with bombs, missiles, drones and artillery. (Ukrinform, 06.21.24)
• On June 21, Russia's Defense Ministry said its air defense forces downed 114 drones launched overnight by Ukraine, with at least one person killed in the mass wave of attacks. (MT/AFP, 06.21.24)
• On June 21, several Russian war telegram channels reported the downing of a Ka-29 helicopter in the Anapa area by Russia’s own air defenses. According to them, four people died as a result of the crash. (BBC, 06.21.24)
• As of June 21, Media Zone and BBC established the names of 56,858 Russian servicemen killed in Russia’s war against Ukraine. (RM, 06.21.24)
• Putin said last week almost 700,000 Russians are fighting in Ukraine. He said that of those, 244,000 had been mobilized. (MT/AFP, 06.15.24)
• While many Ukrainian men have answered the call to serve, some others have tried to evade conscription. Even before the latest mobilization push, thousands of men had fled the country to avoid service, some of them swimming across a river separating Ukraine from Romania. (NYT, 06.21.24)
• Former deputy chairman of Ukraine’s  National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (NAPC) Artem Sytnik became deputy director of the Defense Procurement Agency. (Korrespondent.net, 06.21.24)
• A military court in Russia on June 19 sentenced four Ukrainian citizens to lengthy prison terms, including a life sentence for one, in the case of the 2016 death of Arseny Pavlov (also known as "Motorola"), a top commander of Russian-backed separatists in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk. (RFE/RL, 06.19.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• The U.S. is pausing the delivery of Patriot interceptor missiles to other nations so it can fast-track orders for Ukraine to bolster its air defenses against Russian attacks. The United States will "reprioritize" planned deliveries of Patriot air-defense missiles to get them to Ukraine faster, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on June 20 as Washington works to fill Kyiv's "desperate need" for more air-defense capabilities. (RFE/RL, 06.20.24, FT, 06.20.24)
• The U.S. has told Ukraine it can use American-supplied weapons to hit any Russian forces attacking from across the border—not just those in the region near Kharkiv, according to U.S. officials, Politico reports. According to AP, Ukraine’s military is allowed to use longer-range missiles provided by the U.S. to strike targets inside Russia across more than just the front lines near Kharkiv if it is acting in self-defence, the Pentagon said. The new U.S. policy allowing Ukraine to fire certain American weapons at Russian territory has led to a reduction in some Russian attacks but still restricts the range enough that it prevents Ukraine from hitting key airfields, two Ukrainian officials told WP. Those airfields are used by Russian jets that drop the deadly glide bombs now inflicting the greatest damage on military positions and civilians, according to WP. (RM, 06.21.24)
• U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs John Bass arrived in Kyiv. Upon arrival he said that Ukraine will see new steps to support it from Europe and Washington in the coming weeks. (Nv.ua, 06.21.24, Ukrinform, 06.21.24)
• Former U.S. President Donald Trump on June 15 blasted the scale of U.S. support for Ukraine and said that if he is reelected in November he would immediately "have that settled." At a campaign rally in Detroit, Trump criticized Zelenskyy, calling him “the greatest salesman of all time” for Kyiv’s push to secure U.S. support in its effort to defend Ukraine against Russian aggression more than three years after Moscow's all-out invasion. “He just left four days ago with $60 billion, and he gets home, and he announces that he needs another $60 billion. It never ends,” Trump said. (Politico, 06.16.24)
  • In separate remarks Trump said, "For 20 years, I heard that if Ukraine goes into NATO, it's a real problem for Russia. … And I think that's really why this war started." (Kyiv Independent, 06.21.24)
• Romania on June 20 decided to donate one Patriot system to Ukraine, according to the office of President Klaus Iohannis. Zelenskyy thanked Romania for its “crucial contribution.” (FT, 06.20.24)
• Jordan Bardella, president of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party, said he is in favor of providing Ukraine the ammunition it needs to defend itself but not equipment that might trigger a broader war, placing him relatively close to President Emmanuel Macron’s position on France’s role in the conflict. But unlike Macron, he said he’s opposed to sending French troops to the country. (Bloomberg, 06.19.24)
• Slovakia’s Russia-friendly government accused its predecessor of treason and abuse of public office over military aid sent to Ukraine. The Defense Ministry filed a criminal complaint against the previous government, specifically against former Defense Minister Jaroslav Nad, saying that the caretaker cabinet didn’t have the right to make such a fundamental decision. (Bloomberg, 06.21.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• The world’s largest shipping register withdrew its approval for Russia’s Ingosstrakh Insurance Co. to provide a key document enabling ships to enter ports. The Liberian Register — under whose flag 16% of the world’s ships by capacity sail — said in a circular that it no longer authorizes Moscow-based Ingosstrakh Insurance Co. to issue so-called blue cards. (Bloomberg, 06.17.24)
• The European Union has approved a new package of sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.The measures include restrictions on political parties, think tanks and media providers to accept Russian sources of funding. (Bloomberg, 06.20.24)
• The U.S. Treasury announced that the United States has provided formal notice to the Russian Federation to confirm the suspension of the operation of Paragraph 4 of Article 1 and Articles 5-21 and 23 of the Convention between the United States of America and the Russian Federation for the Avoidance of Double Taxation. (Treasury.gov, 06.17.24)
• Russian consumers enjoy continued access to Western brands like Nike and Lego thanks to a Dutch businessman who imports them via grey-market methods. Wijnand Herinckx, 40, has built a “thriving” business ferrying these brands’ products into Russia after they exited the country in 2022 over the war in Ukraine, Reuters said, citing customs data, corporate records, internal company documents and Herinckx himself. (MT/AFP, 06.15.24)
• After Putin’s troops surged over the Ukrainian border in February 2022, the Coca-Cola Co. was among the first multinationals to pledge it would quit Russia in protest. Two years later, Coke’s distinctive red logo is still easy to find in supermarkets and restaurants across the country. “The profits from selling Coca-Cola in Russia have merely shifted to Coca-Cola HBC, which has taken market share through the success of Dobry,” says Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA Research. (Bloomberg, 06.18.24)
• The former Russian division of French DIY retailer Leroy Merlin has announced it will change its name to Lemana PRO as part of a wider rebranding effort following its sale to local management last year. (MT/AFP, 06.18.24)
• Uzbek-Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov has filed a lawsuit in Frankfurt against UBS, according to a statement by his representatives, accusing the bank of triggering a “politically motivated investigation” against him by flagging multiple transactions to the German authorities as “suspicious.” (FT, 06.16.24)
• Kenya’s President William Ruto blasted a recent G-7 deal to offer a $50-billion loan to Ukraine secured against profits of frozen Russian assets.  “The unilateral appropriation of Russian assets is equally unlawful,” Ruto said. (MT/AFP, 06.15.24) 
• Russian government officials announced their intention on June 19 to suspend Russia's participation in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's Parliamentary Assembly (OSCE PA). (ISW, 06.19.24)
• The European Court of Human Rights on June 18 ruled unanimously that Russia violated the European Convention on Human Rights when it labeled several foreign organizations operating in Russia as "undesirable" and when it prosecuted Russians for being involved with those organizations. (RFE/RL, 06.18.24)
• Tatyana Bakalchuk made billions selling everything from brooms to bridal gowns on her online marketplace. Now Russia’s richest woman is making a surprise pivot with Wildberries: to helping insulate the economy from sanctions by building an alternative to the global payment system major Russian banks were excluded from. (Bloomberg, 06.21.24)
• Questioned by the Levada Center in May, 68% of Russians either are not worried about sanctions or are not very worried. Meanwhile, 29% are either very worried or quite worried. (Levada, 06.19.24)

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• The “Joint Communiqué on a Peace Framework” adopted at the June 15-16 Summit on Peace in Ukraine covered only three of the most uncontroversial points of Zelenskyy’s initial 10-point peace formula: food security, nuclear security and the return of prisoners and children. The June 16 declaration also implied that Russia needs to participate in whatever follow-up may occur.“We believe that reaching peace requires the involvement of and dialogue between all parties,” said the communique, which was signed by 78 participating countries and international organizations. According to Bloomberg’s analysis, Zelenskyy fell short in his bid to broaden international support at the summit, as 11 of the attending countries didn’t sign the communiqué, while China didn’t attend the summit altogether. (RM, 06.17.24)
  • Zelenskyy said June 15 he would present Moscow a proposal for ending the war once it had been agreed by the international community. Zelenskyy told the forum he hoped the summit would lay the groundwork for a “just” and “lasting” settlement with Russia. “We must decide together what a just peace means for the world and how it can be achieved in a lasting way,” he said. "We have succeeded in bringing back to the world the idea that joint efforts can stop war and establish a just peace," Zelenskyy said. (MT/AFP, 06.15.24. Bloomberg, 06.15.24, RFE/RL, 06.15.24)
    • Ukraine may invite Russia to the next meeting slated with international partners aimed at working out a formula for future peace talks, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff said. (Bloomberg, 06.19.24)
  • “He is not calling for negotiations, he is calling for surrender,” U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris told the summit of Putin’s demands. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said a ceasefire without “serious negotiations with a roadmap toward a lasting peace ... would only legitimize Russia’s illegal land grab.” European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen insisted that “freezing the conflict today with foreign troops occupying Ukrainian land is not an answer. In fact, it is a recipe for future wars of aggression,” she warned. (MT/AFP, 06.15.24)
  • Scholz dismissed demands by Putin for Ukraine to withdraw from four eastern regions partially occupied by Russian forces as a condition for any peace talks. (Bloomberg, 06.15.24)
  • "If we talk about the results of this meeting, then they come down to zero," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. (MT/AFP, 06.17.24)
  • Kyiv would have to be prepared for a “difficult compromise” if it wanted to end the conflict, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud told the conference. (MT/AFP, 06.15.24)
• A majority of Ukrainians still rule out making compromises in negotiations with Russia, but the share has decreased to 58% from 80% in May 2022, according to the survey, which was conducted May 26 to June 1 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. A total of 30% of respondents didn’t agree with the idea of opposing compromises, the study showed. (Bloomberg, 06.18.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• The Group of 7 countries threw open the doors of their club to India, Brazil, Turkey and other non-Western countries. While diplomats from the Group of 7 hammered out a communique that pledged support for Ukraine in its war against Russia and greater ambition in curbing carbon emissions, the focus was on Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil and other leaders from outside the G-7, whose support is increasingly critical to achieving any of these goals. (NYT, 06.15.24)
• U.S. President Joe Biden and the NATO secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, announced on June 17 that a record number of allies were meeting their military spending commitments. When NATO allies made the pledge in 2014, only three members—including the United States—met that mark, Stoltenberg said. About five years ago, roughly 10 did, he said, and this year more than 20 of the alliance's 32 members will. Stoltenberg also said allies have increased military spending this year by 18%—the biggest jump in decades. (NYT, 06.18.24)
  • Stoltenberg ramped up the pressure on Canada to uphold its commitment to spend 2% of GDP on defense, noting that it’s one of a minority of members that will fail to meet that level this year. (Bloomberg, 06.19.24)
  • Mark Rutte will become the next secretary-general of NATO after his only rival dropped out of the race, clearing the path for the outgoing Dutch prime minister to take office in October. (FT, 06.20.24)
• The Russian garrisons and military bases near the Finnish border are almost empty, despite Russia announcing that it is reinforcing troops in the area. Almost 80% of the equipment and soldiers have been moved to Ukraine, says a high-ranking source within the Finnish military intelligence service. According to the intelligence source, the situation also looks the same at other military bases around Russia. It is only in the area around Moscow that personnel and military equipment have not been moved to the offensive in Ukraine. (Yle.fi, 06.19.24)
• Germany plans to buy 105 additional Leopard 2 A8 battle tanks as part of the ruling coalition’s multi-billion euro program to modernize the armed forces triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 06.20.24)
• Stoltenberg said on June 17 that China was providing technology to Russia that is prolonging its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and called on Beijing to face the consequences of this support. (RFE/RL, 06.17.24)
• A Russian SU-24 fighter aircraft breached Swedish airspace just east of the island of Gotland on June 14 afternoon, only days after a similar incident in Finland. (Bloomberg, 06.15.24)
• The Biden administration is warning its NATO allies that Russia is intensifying a covert campaign of sabotage and hybrid warfare against supporters of Ukraine. To counter this rising Russian threat, U.S. intelligence agencies are pushing to their European partners information they can use to disrupt the saboteurs. "This is [Vladimir] Putin's way to turn up the heat," said a Biden senior administration official. (WP, 06.21.24)
• Air traffic control communications from international airspace over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean appear to show the first confirmed instance of GPS jamming on commercial trans-Atlantic routes. (ISW, 06.19.24)
• Swedish authorities say Russia is behind “harmful interference” deliberately targeting the Nordic country’s satellite networks that it first noted days after joining NATO earlier this year. (Bloomberg, 06.20.24)
• The expansion of NATO and the European Union into eastern Europe is to blame for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to Nigel Farage, leader of the populist Reform U.K. party surging in the polls. (Bloomberg, 06.21.24)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• Russia's military cooperation with Iran, North Korea and China has expanded into the sharing of sensitive technologies that could threaten the U.S. and its allies long after the Ukraine war ends, according to U.S. defense and intelligence officials. The speed and depth of the expanding security ties involving the U.S. adversaries has at times surprised American intelligence analysts. (WSJ, 06.19.24)
• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken described China, Iran and North Korea as "countries of concern" for their involvement in Russia's war economy at a June 18 joint press conference with Stoltenberg. Stoltenberg said Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine "demonstrates and confirms the very close alliance between Russia and authoritarian states like North Korea, but also China and Iran." Stoltenberg has said there will be “consequences” for China if it continues to support Russia’s war economy. (RFE/RL, 06.18.24, FT, 06.20.24)
• Russia is scouring China for second-hand machine tools using shadowy networks of buyers, as the Kremlin races to secure vital equipment to increase arms production. (FT, 06.19.24)
• Alfa Bank PJSC, Russia’s largest private lender, sanctioned by both the U.S. and the European Union, is planning to open new offices in China. (Bloomberg, 06.18.24)
• Payments from Russia to China have improved in the last month, Izvestia found out. In March–April, there were almost no transfers to China, but the situation changed after Putin’s trip to Beijing. (Izvestia 06.20.24)

Missile defense:

• No significant developments.

Nuclear arms:

• Putin said at a press conference in Hanoi:
  • “You know, I think I have said that we are still thinking about what can be changed in this [nuclear] doctrine and how. This is because new elements are arising (at least we know that the potential adversary is working on it) related to lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons. In particular, ultra-low-power nuclear explosive devices are being developed, and we know that expert circles in the West are entertaining the idea that such weapons could be used, and there is nothing particularly terrible about it. It may not be terrible, but we must be aware of this. And we are. This is what my statement that we are thinking about possible changes in our strategies is related to.” (Kremlin.ru, 06.20.24)
  • [When asked about a preventive strike:] We do not need a preventive strike yet, because the enemy will be guaranteed to be destroyed in a retaliatory strike. (Kremlin.ru, 06.20.24)
  • [When asked: NATO is now openly discussing the combat readiness status for nuclear warheads. How does Russia perceive this move and what impact will it have on global stability and security?] The Russian Federation always maintains its strategic nuclear forces in a state of permanent combat readiness. This is why we are not greatly concerned about the current actions of Western countries. However, we are, of course, closely monitoring the situation, and if the threat grows, we will respond appropriately. (Kremlin.ru, 06.20.24)
  • [When asked if the use of Western long-range weapons can be viewed as an act of aggression:] This matter requires further investigation, but it is close. We are looking into it. (Kremlin.ru, 06.20.24)
  • They keep saying they want to defeat us on the battlefield by inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia. What would this mean for Russia? For Russia, it would mean the loss of its statehood. It would be the end of the thousand-year history of the Russian state. I think this should be clear to everyone. And so, the question arises: Why should we be afraid? Wouldn’t it make more sense to stand firm until the end? (Kremlin.ru, 06.20.24)
• “The international situation tends to further deteriorate. The factor of nuclear deterrence plays a key role in our system of ensuring security - this is also indisputable and well known. Our partners and our opponents understand perfectly well the importance that we attach to the factor of nuclear deterrence,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters in Moscow when asked what exactly needs to happen for the Russian side to decide to introduce changes into its military and nuclear doctrines. “Recent experience, including that gained during the SVO [special military operation], and analysis of the behavioral model of the collective West with regard to the SVO show that it is necessary to clarify certain parameters that apply to situations described both in the military doctrine as such and in the Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence. … This work is ongoing, it is not finished,” Ryabkov said. “I am not ready to discuss any time frames, ranges or schedules for this work,” he added. (Interfax, 06.19.24)
• NATO is in talks to deploy more nuclear weapons in the face of a growing threat from Russia and China, the head of the alliance has said. Stoltenberg added that the bloc must show its nuclear arsenal to the world to send a direct message to its foes. He revealed there were live consultations between members on taking missiles out of storage and placing them on standby as he called for transparency to be used as a deterrent. Stoltenberg said: “I won’t go into operational details about how many nuclear warheads should be operational and which should be stored, but we need to consult on these issues. That’s exactly what we’re doing.” (Telegraph, 06.16.24)
  • Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergei Naryshkin reacted in a level-headed manner and characterized Stoltenberg's statements about taking nuclear missiles out of storage as "exercises," stating that he understands that Stoltenberg's statement aims to scare Russia, but "on the other hand, exercises are conducted regularly and should be conducted regularly." Naryshkin stated that there is no "special significance" to Stoltenberg's statement and that Russia "must take it calmly." Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, on the other hand, claimed that Stoltenberg's statement is "nothing more than another escalation of tension." (ISW, 06.17.24)
• “Any use of nuclear weapons by Russia in the context of its war of aggression against Ukraine would be inadmissible. We therefore condemn in the strongest possible terms Russia’s irresponsible and threatening nuclear rhetoric as well as its posture of strategic intimidation, including its announced deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus,” G-7 leaders said in the communique they adopted on June 14. (RM, 06.14.24)
• “Any threat or use of nuclear weapons in the context of the ongoing war against Ukraine is inadmissible,” according to the June 16 Joint Communiqué on a Peace Framework adopted at the Summit on Peace in Ukraine. (RM, 06.17.24)
• President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol are likely to meet next month for a summit where the U.S. is expected to reaffirm its commitment to extended deterrence, or the “nuclear umbrella” it provides for its Asian allies. (Bloomberg, 06.21.24)
• If Trump returns to the White House, he should sever all economic ties with China, consider deploying the entire U.S. Marine Corps to Asia and resume live nuclear-weapons testing, his former national security adviser Robert O’Brien writes in an article for FA. He also argues the U.S. should resume production of uranium-235 and plutonium-239 “if China and Russia continue to refuse to engage in good-faith arms control talks.” O’Brien writes in the article that Trump has “made clear that he would like to see a negotiated settlement to the war that ends the killing and preserves the security of Ukraine.” (Bloomberg, 06.17.24)
• An “extremely concerning” increase in the number of nuclear warheads deployed with missiles and aircraft will probably pick up speed in the next years, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The number of such warheads rose to 3,904 as Russia continues to threaten its adversaries at the same time as China may have put weapons of mass destruction on high operational alert for the first time, the institute said. Russia and the U.S. hold almost 90% of the nuclear weapons in the world, and while China’s stockpile is far smaller, SIPRI estimates that it grew to 500 weapons from 410 a year earlier. SIPRI Director Dan Smith said the world is now in “one of the most dangerous periods in human history.” (Bloomberg, 06.16.24)
  • China is in the midst of a "significant" expansion of its nuclear capabilities and may have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as the United States or Russia by 2030, according to a new global analysis of nuclear weapons. Beijing is both growing and modernizing its nuclear arsenal, according to an annual report released Sunday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a group that tracks global security and arms control. China's military stockpile grew from 410 nuclear warheads last year to 500 as of January, the report found. (WP, 06.18.24)
• Denmark’s government is asking citizens to prepare for an attack or other potential crisis by stockpiling supplies of water, food and medicine, and keeping iodine tablets at home. (Bloomberg, 06.15.24)

Counterterrorism:

• On June 16, Russian special forces freed two prison guards and shot dead six inmates linked to the Islamic State militant group who had taken them hostage at a detention center in the southern city of Rostov, Russian media said. State media said that some of the men had been convicted of terrorism offences and were accused of affiliation with the Islamic State militant group, which claimed responsibility for a deadly attack on a Moscow concert hall in March. (Reuters, 06.16.24)
• The Biden administration sees increased foreign terrorist threats to the U.S. compared to a year ago, thanks to renewed efforts by the Islamic State militant group and Middle East unrest tied to the Israel-Hamas war. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said his department has noticed “a resurgence in recruiting of ISIS, ISIS’s public communications and efforts to galvanize individuals to divide us,” using a common acronym for the Sunni Muslim insurgent group. (Bloomberg, 06.17.24)
• Germany could see a terrorist attack on the scale of the assault on a Moscow concert hall in March, German officials have warned, as the Euro 2024 football championship it is hosting neared its second week. “Europe, and with it Germany, are in the crosshairs of jihadist organizations, in particular ISIS and ISIS-K,” said German interior minister Nancy Faeser in reference to the Afghan-based affiliate called ISIS-Khorasan, which claimed responsibility for the March massacre at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall. (FT, 06.18.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• The Biden administration on June 20 said it would ban sales in the U.S. of software built by Russian antivirus vendor Kaspersky Lab, acting on longstanding concerns that the software firm poses a significant national-security threat. (WSJ, 06.21.24)
• The NHS is investigating what the U.K. health service fears is its biggest leak of patient data in years, after a ransomware attack three weeks ago disrupted thousands of appointments and operations at major London hospitals. Russian-speaking cyber crime group Qilin late on June 20 uploaded 104 files containing almost 400GB of information it said it had stolen from Synnovis, which provides pathology services for the NHS. (FT, 06.21.24)
• The IMF said it had “profound concerns” about massive labor disruptions and rising inequality as societies move toward generative AI, and it urged governments to do more to protect their economies. In a report published on June 17, the fund said countries should take action such as improving unemployment insurance, warning that, unlike past disruptive technologies, AI could lead to job losses in higher-skilled occupations. (FT, 06.18.24)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Europe’s gas imports from Russia overtook supplies from the U.S. for the first time in almost two years in May, despite the region’s efforts to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels since the full scale invasion of Ukraine. last month, Russian-piped gas and LNG shipments accounted for 15% of total supply to the EU, U.K., Switzerland, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia, according to data from ICIS. LNG from the U.S. made up 14% of supply to the region, its lowest level since August 2022, the ICIS data showed. (FT, 06.15.24)
• The European Union has approved a new package of sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The measures target Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers, and transshipments of liquefied natural gas to third countries. As well as prohibition on providing investments, services and goods to new LNG projects in Russia. While this is the EU’s first move to restrict Russian LNG operations, the bloc will still allow deliveries of the fuel from Moscow to the region. (Bloomberg, 06.20.24)
  • France should ban imports of Russian liquefied natural gas as soon as possible, according to advice from a French Senate committee. (Bloomberg, 06.19.24)
• Denmark is considering ways to limit a potentially environmentally harmful shadow fleet of tankers from carrying Russian oil through the Baltic Sea, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said on June 17. (RFE/RL, 06.17.24)
• Russia is involved in more than a third of the new reactors being constructed around the world at the moment, including in China, India, Iran and Egypt. For Rosatom, foreign projects — including the construction of nuclear power plants, the export of enriched uranium and other initiatives — account for about half of its total revenue, according to annual reports. In 2023, Rosatom earned $16.2 billion from these projects, up from $11.8 billion in 2022. This revenue has more than doubled in the past decade. By 2030, Rosatom’s total revenue is expected to reach over $56 billion, more than double the current level, according to the company’s development strategy. (FT, 06.20.24)

Climate:

• A severe storm hit Moscow on June 20, killing two people and injuring nine as hurricane-force winds and pounding rain swept across the city. (RFE/RL, 06.20.24)

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• “The President of Russia spoke about the prospects for dialogue and said that we are ready for dialogue with the United States, we are interested in dialogue with the United States, but only in a comprehensive dialogue. It is impossible to tear out any individual segments from the general complex of accumulated problems, and we will not do this,” said Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov. (Kommersant, 06.21.24)
• Russia said it is awaiting a response from Washington to its proposals for a possible exchange of prisoners, an apparent reference to U.S. citizens detained in Russia such as Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich. Russia's deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, on June 19 said that "the ball is in the U.S.'s court, we are waiting for their response to the ideas that were presented to them." (WSJ, 06.20.24)
• Russia set June 26 for the opening of an espionage trial against Gershkovich, a step that may hasten negotiations for a possible swap deal. (Bloomberg, 06.17.24)
• A Russian court on June 18 refused to release imprisoned U.S.-Russian journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, who faces up to 10 years in jail on charges of spreading "false information" about the country's army. (MT/AFP, 06.18.24)
• U.S. Army Staff Sgt. Gordon Black, who was arrested in Russia's Far East city of Vladivostok last month, rejected a charge of attacking his Russian girlfriend and threatening to kill her, as his trial resumed. (RFE/RL, 06.17.24)
• A dual U.S.-Russian citizen accused of donating around $50 to a Ukrainian charity went on trial for treason in the Ural city of Yekaterinburg on June 20. Ksenia Karelina, a 32-year-old ballerina living and working in Los Angeles, was detained by police in Yekaterinburg in late January. (MT/AFP, 06.20.24)
• The Stanford Internet Observatory, which published some of the most influential analysis of the spread of false information on social media during elections, has shed most of its staff and may shut down amid political and legal attacks that have cast a pall on efforts to study online misinformation. (WP, 06.15.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• The pace of inflation in Russia accelerated yet again in May. Inflation was running at 8.3% on an annual basis in May, Russia’s statistics agency Rosstat said on June 15 — the highest rate since February 2023. That was up from 7.8% at the end of April and far ahead of the country's official 4.0% inflation target. Fast price rises have put pressure on Russia's Central Bank to further raise interest rates to bring inflation under control. (MT/AFP, 06.15.24)
• Sberbank expects to send at least $11.6 billion in tax and dividends to Russia's federal budget this year and may build on 2023's record profits as Western sanctions reduce competition, its finance chief told Reuters. The country's largest bank made record annual profits of 1.5 trillion rubles ($17.27 billion) for 2023, about 45% of total banking sector profits of 3.3 trillion rubles, as Russia's banks rebounded from the impact of sweeping financial sanctions over the Ukraine conflict. (Reuters, 06.20.24)
• Putin has appointed his former “business tsar” as his special representative to international organizations, a position previously held by veteran reformer Anatoly Chubais before he left Russia two years ago in opposition to the war. Boris Titov, who served as Russia’s business ombudsman from 2012, announced his resignation in the fall of 2022. (MT/AFP, 06.17.24)
• Dmitry Medvedev, chairman of United Russia, appointed Vladimir Yakushev, the presidential plenipotentiary representative in the Ural Federal District, as acting secretary of the party’s General Council instead of Andrei Turchak. (Istories, 06.15.24)
• Russia’s Interior Ministry has issued an arrest warrant for the editor-in-chief of the investigative news outlet IStories. Roman Anin was listed in the law enforcement body’s online database of wanted persons, but the listing does not indicate any charges against him. Yekaterina Fomina, a journalist at TV Rain and a former IStories correspondent, was also placed on the Interior Ministry’s wanted list. (MT/AFP, 06.17.24)
• Russian lawmaker Andrei Alshevskikh quoted Interior Ministry officials on June 17 as saying that an investigation was launched last month against television journalist Tatyana Lazareva on a charge of justifying terrorism. The charge stems from Lazareva's report about Ukrainian drones attacking Russian sites. (RFE/RL, 06.17.24)
• A Moscow court on June 18 remanded journalist Artyom Kriger until mid-August on charges related to the “extremism” case against late Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, his employer said. (MT/AFP, 06.18.24)
• A  Moscow court on June 18 extended pretrial detention for Russian journalist Nadezhda Kevorkova until at least August 6. Kevorkova was arrested last month on a charge of “justifying terrorism.” The 65-year-old journalist reiterated her innocence. (RFE/RL, 06.18.24)
• Outspoken Kremlin critic Ilya Yashin, serving 8 1/2 years in prison for openly condemning Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, has been transferred to a punitive cell unit (PKT) in a prison in the western Smolensk region (RFE/RL, 06.18.24)
• Imprisoned Kremlin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza has been transferred to a cell-type facility — one of Russia's strictest prison regimes — for six months, his former lawyer, Vadim Prokhorov, said. (RFE/RL, 06.20.24)
• Russian authorities on June 19 added journalist Farida Kurbangaleyeva to the list of wanted persons and the registry of terrorists and extremists on unspecified charges. The Prague-based Kurbangaleyeva wrote on Facebook that the move was made by the Russian authorities most likely over her “openly saying that Russia…conducts a criminal, land-grabbing war in Ukraine…” (RFE/RL, 06.20.24)
• Artyom Kriger, a journalist with the independent SotaVision Telegram channel, has been detained for questioning in an unspecified case. Kriger is known for his interviews with Russian politicians. (RFE/RL, 06.18.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• Putin dismissed deputy defense ministers Nikolai Pankov, Ruslan Tsalikov, Tatiana Shevtsova, and Army General Pavel Popov, replacing them with deputy defense ministers Anna Tsivileva and Pavel Fradkov and First Deputy Defense Minister Leonid Gornin. (ISW, 06.17.24)
  • Tsivileva is Putin’s first cousin once removed (“niece”), wife of the recently appointed Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev, and the Chairperson of the Kremlin-initiated “Defenders of the Fatherland” Foundation. (ISW, 06.17.24)
    • The meteoric rise of Tsivileva, 52, is part of a wave of senior appointments for the children and other close relatives of senior Russian officials following Putin’s re-election in March, which extended his rule until at least 2030. (FT, 06.21.24)
  • Pavel Fradkov is the son of former Russian Prime Minister and longest-serving Director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Mikhail Fradkov. (ISW, 06.17.24)
  • Gornin served as the First Deputy Minister of Finance since May 2018, Deputy Minister of Finance from 2012 to 2018, and Minister of Finance and Tax Policy of Novosibirsk Oblast from 2010 to 2011. (ISW, 06.17.24)
• Moscow will start a 10-day naval exercise on June 18, involving dozens of ships sailing in the Pacific Ocean and waters close to South Korea and Japan, Russia's Defense Ministry said. “The naval drills will be held in the Pacific Ocean, Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk, involving ‘40 ships, boats and support vessels’ as well as about 20 planes and helicopters, according to the Defense Ministry.” (MT/AFP, 06.18.24)
• A Russian nuclear-powered submarine and other naval vessels on June 17 left the port of Havana after a five-day stay. The Russian nuclear-powered submarine Kazan — which Cuba said was not carrying nuclear weapons — docked in Havana on June 12. (RFE/RL, 06.17.24)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• FSB said that it arrested a former Agriculture Ministry official accused of embezzling billions of rubles more than a decade ago. Law enforcement agents arrested Oleg Donskikh — who headed one of the Agriculture Ministry’s departments until 2012 — in the Moscow region after he had been on the run for 12 years. (MT/AFP, 06.17.24)
• A Moscow Court on June 20 extended the pre-trial detention of former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, who was arrested in late April and then later charged with accepting a bribe of more than 1 billion rubles ($11.4 million) while he oversaw military construction projects. (MT/AFP, 06.20.24)
• The former governor of central Russia’s Kirov region, Nikita Belykh, who was sentenced to eight years in jail in 2018 for accepting a large bribe, was released from prison on June 21 after serving his sentence in full, his lawyer told state media. (MT/AFP, 06.21.24)
• A Moscow court on June 19 ordered Tajik national Karim Normatov to be held in pretrial detention for two months over a mass food poisoning in the Russian capital. (RFE/RL, 06.20.24)

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including  relations with “far abroad” countries:

• On June 29 Putin was greeted in Hanoi with a 21-gun salute before reviewing a Vietnamese honor guard alongside Vietnamese President To Lam. In meetings, leaders of the two countries committed to deepening the bilateral relationship. During the visit, he also met with  Vietnamese Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính, and General Secretary of the Central Committee of Vietnam’s Community Party Nguyễn Phú Trọng. The leaders signed several agreements on areas such as educational ties, ministerial-level collaboration, nuclear energy research, healthcare and joint oil and gas operations in the South China Sea. The deals probably also included a trade financing mechanism, as Vietnam has left the Russian MIR payment system while Russia was excised from the SWIFT payment system. It was Putin's fifth trip to the country since 2001, but his first since his full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Putin said on June 20 that it is time for a "new security architecture" for Asia as he wrapped up a short visit to Vietnam. (Stratfor, 06.21.24, ISW, 06.20.24, RFE/RL, 06.20.24, WSJ, 06.20.24, NYT, 06.21.24)
  • The U.S. is dispatching a U.S.  Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Daniel Kritenbrink, to Vietnam on the heels of Putin’s visit to the Southeast Asian country. Over the past nine months, Vietnam has hosted Biden, Xi and Putin, balancing geopolitical rivalries with an élan that has eluded other countries. (Bloomberg, 06.21.24, FT, 06.20.24)
• Three men were arrested in Frankfurt on suspicion of espionage, the German authorities said June 21. The three suspects — a Russian, Arman S.; an Armenian, Vardges I.; and a Ukrainian, Robert A. — traveled to Germany to gather information for a foreign intelligence service, according to the Federal Prosecutor’s Office.  (Politico, 06.21.23)
• The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) said Russian intelligence services were spending big to recruit agents in Germany despite Western attempts to limit their operations since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Two German citizens who were charged last August with high treason for spying for Russia had each been paid an estimated 400,000 euros ($428,560) for their services, the BfV said. (RFE/RL, 06.18.24)
• Germany launched a task force to counter disinformation campaigns by countries, including Russia, that the government in Berlin says are designed to undermine democracy and sow discord. (Bloomberg, 06.18.24)
• Canada has sanctioned over a dozen high-ranking Russian law enforcement officials believed to be responsible for the death of opposition activist Navalny. The new sanctions target individuals involved in the poisoning of Navalny in 2020, his arrest in Moscow upon returning to Russia in 2021 and his mistreatment while incarcerated. (MT/AFP, 06.19.24)

Ukraine:

• Ukrainian officials insist they are battling corruption as fiercely as their troops are fighting Russia's invaders in the east. But Western governments, including the United States, say it is still not enough — a source of increasingly raw tension between Kyiv and some of its strongest supporters that pose constant peril to additional economic and military assistance. Nearly every month adds a new case to a string of high-profile arrests and dismissals. While there have been no direct allegations of American money or weapons being mishandled or misappropriated, Republican members of Congress cited corruption concerns as among their reasons for obstructing a $61 billion aid package. (WP, 06.20.24)
• Journalists and groups monitoring press freedoms are raising alarms over what they say are increasing restrictions and pressures on the media in Ukraine under the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky that go well beyond the country’s wartime needs. Analysts say the government’s efforts to control the media appear to be aimed at crimping positive coverage of the opposition and suppressing negative coverage of the government and the military. (NYT, 06.18.24)
  • The European Union has established the Audit Council of the Ukrainian Fund, which will oversee the Union's financing to prevent corruption, fraud, conflicts of interest and other violations. The Audit Council’s mandate will be for the period from the date of its adoption until June 30, 2028. (Suspilne Novini, 06.17.24)
  • A deputy head of the Main Directorate of the State Tax Service in Kyiv was found to have signs of illegal enrichment of more than 20 million hryvnia and declaration of false information of more than 5 million hryvnia. This was reported by the press service of the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption on June 20. (Korrespondent.net, 06.20.24)
  • In the Dnepr region, a former regional military commissar, who allegedly acquired property worth $350 thousand during martial law, will go on trial on charges of illegal enrichment. The ex-official faces up to 10 years in prison. (Korrespondent.net, 06.20.24)
  • Deputy Prosecutor General Verbitsky was relieved from his duties. Recently, the Schemes project published an investigation into the girlfriend of Deputy Prosecutor General Dmitry Verbitsky. Journalists found out that Kristina Ilnitskaya purchased an elite Porsche car and a three-story cottage in the capital in 2024. The cost of the property was about 52 million hryvnia. NABU opened a case regarding the wealth of Deputy Prosecutor General Verbitsky. (RBC.ua, 06.21.24)
  • The former head of the SBU’s Main Directorate of Internal Security, Andrei Naumov, was informed that he is suspected of having organized the forgery of official documents to avoid criminal liability in Serbia. On June 7, 2022, Naumov tried to leave Serbia for North Macedonia through the border checkpoint in a BMW X6 PMV car. During customs control, he was found to have almost 593 thousand euros, more than $120 thousand and two emeralds that he was hiding (Ukrainska Pravda, 06.21.24)
• The head of Ukraine’s anti-graft agency was summoned to parliament but failed to show after lawmakers sought to question him about potential leaks of confidential information to people under investigation. Semen Kryvonos, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau’s head, didn’t meet June 20 with members of a committee, saying before he was expected in parliament that a probe into possible leaks had been launched. (Bloomberg, 06.20.24)
• The EU formally agreed to open negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova over membership in the bloc, an important symbolic step in a process that will take years to play out. EU member states cleared the final hurdle June 21 and formal accession discussions can begin on June 25 in Luxembourg. (Bloomberg, 06.21.24)
• The first formal talks on restructuring more than $20 billion of Ukraine’s international bonds ended without a deal as the creditors pushed back against Kyiv’s proposal for debt relief. Ukraine has urged international bondholders to accept deep cuts on more than $20bn of debt to help finance the nation’s war effort, after initial talks failed to produce a deal two months before a payment standstill runs out. (FT, 06.16.24, Bloomberg, 06.17.24)
• Russia’s largest lender, Sberbank, will begin providing services to corporate clients in eastern Ukraine’s partially occupied Luhansk and Donetsk regions later this month, a top manager at the bank told state media on June 20. (MT/AFP, 06.20.24)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• The EU will consider reimposing visa requirements for Georgians, according to a leaked document, in response to a widely criticized "foreign agent" law passed by parliament despite street protests and international warnings. (RFE/RL, 06.15.24)
• An Estonian court has sentenced Viacheslav Morozov, who worked as a political science professor at the University of Tartu until his arrest in January, to six years and three months in prison for engaging in activities directed against Estonia on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, according to Estonian Public Broadcasting. (Meduza, 06.18.24)
• Estonia said it will close the Baltic country’s main route for travelers bound for Russia over the weekend, saying long lines of people at the frontier posed a threat to health and public order. (Bloomberg, 06.21.24)
• Russian officials detained five residents of the village of Yazgulom in the volatile Gorno-Badakhshan autonomous region and extradited them to Tajikistan last week, where they were charged with “membership in an extremist organization,” a source close to Tajik law enforcement told RFE/RL on June 17. (RFE/RL, 06.17.24)
• French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said his country has signed a deal to provide CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Armenia, a move that's likely to further raise anger in Azerbaijan and Russia toward France. (RFE/RL, 06.18.24)

IV. Quotable and notable

• No significant developments.

Footnotes

1. A North Korean official ushered Russian government ministers out of the meeting room before North Korean leader Kim Jong-un entered. Footage of the incident was broadcast live by North Korean media. (MT, 06.19.24)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 11:00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by Kremlin.ru shared under a Creative Commons 4.0 license.