3 Things to Know

1. As Israel continued to pound an increasingly air-defenseless Iran, Vladimir Putin condemned these strikes in calls with Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The Russian leader also unsuccessfully offered to his U.S. counterpart that Russia mediate a ceasefire and diplomatic talks on Iran’s nuclear program. In sync with their country’s leader, Russian diplomats also condemned the Israeli strikes while warning the United States—which is reported to be in possession of conventional munitions capable of destroying Iran’s Fordow enrichment plant, which is buried deep within a mountain—against joining the attacks. The warning came as it was reported that the U.S. will decide within two weeks whether to join Israel’s campaign. If Trump refrains from deciding in favor of U.S. strikes prior to June 26–27, then Putin will have another shot at mediation, as both he and Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian are reportedly planning to be in Minsk during that period.¹ In the meantime, Putin—who earlier this year signed the Russian-Iranian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Pezeshkian, with both leaders describing their countries as allied—sought to limit the damage done to Russia’s reputation as an ally. In an interview this week, Putin claimed that the January 2025 treaty contained “no clauses pertaining to defense cooperation,”² and that Russia had proposed to Iran cooperation in air defense systems, but Iran “showed limited interest, and the matter concluded there.” On balance, one acceptable outcome of the conflict for Putin would be an Iran that has been durably denied the capability to produce nuclear weapons while still ruled by a Kremlin-friendly regime. It is doubtful, however, that Israel and its main ally, the U.S., which are both interested in not only denying Iran nuclear weapons,  but also in regime change, would agree to both parts of this outcome.* 

2. “I have already said that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. In this sense, all of Ukraine is ours,” Vladimir Putin claimed at a plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 20. In his remarks at that session, Putin also cited what he said was an “old rule” that “wherever the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that is ours.” The week preceding June 17 saw Russian soldiers capture 64 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about 3 Manhattan islands), according to the June 17, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. That represent a slight increase in pace over the previous week’s gain of 62 square miles.
3. Donald Trump left the 2-day G-7 summit in Canada after the first day, thus cancelling his June 17 meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and derailing the Ukrainian leader’s hopes of trying to convince his U.S. counterpart to back more sanctions on Russia, the Wall Street Journal reported. If that setback weren’t enough, Trump also lamented Russia’s absence from the leaders’ get-together and rejected the idea of issuing a joint G-7 statement in support of Ukraine, according to the New York Times.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• [When asked if Ukraine could “drop a dirty bomb” on Russia] Russian President Vladimir Putin told a June 20 plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum: “Firstly, it would be a colossal mistake on the part of [Ukrainian authorities]... Perhaps it would be their last mistake. Because in our nuclear doctrine—both common sense and the practice of our actions—they always say that we always respond to all threats that are created for us, in a mirror-like manner. We always respond and always in a mirror-like manner. Therefore, our response will be very harsh and, most likely, catastrophic for both the [Kyiv] ... regime and, unfortunately, for Ukraine itself. I hope that they will never come to this.” (Kremlin.ru, 06.20.25) For more of Putin’s remarks at SPIEF, also see section “Domestic politics, economy and energy.”
• The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant cannot be restarted until the end of the war, as long as there is a threat to nuclear safety. The IAEA states that Russia has agreed to this, according to a statement by IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi. (RBC.ua, 06.20.25)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Kim Jong Un discussed ongoing cooperation with Moscow in talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top security aide Sergei Shoigu. It was Shoigu’s third visit to the North Korean capital since March. Afterward, he told reporters that Kim had agreed to send 5,000 construction workers and 1,000 sappers—combat engineers—to Russia's Kursk region. Shoigu met Kim in Pyongyang on June 17, on a “special mission” from Putin, as the two nations mark the first anniversary of their military treaty and expand their strategic partnership under mounting international sanctions. (Bloomberg, 06.18.25, New York Times, 06.18.25)
• More than 6,000 North Korean soldiers are believed to have been injured or killed while fighting in Russia’s Kursk region in support of Moscow’s war on Ukraine, according to estimates by British intelligence. (Bloomberg, 06.15.25)
• Russia’s postal service is resuming package delivery to North Korea for the first time since 2020. (Bloomberg, 06.17.25)

Iran and its nuclear program:

Saturday, June 14, 2025

• After a June 14 phone call that focused on the new explosion of fighting in the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump said on social media that Putin “feels, as I do, this war in Israel-Iran should end.” In his post about the conversation, Trump added that he told Putin that “his war should also end.” Trump told Putin in the phone call that White House envoy Steve Witkoff is ready to resume nuclear talks with Iran's foreign minister, the Russian president's foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov said. Ushakov said in a briefing with reporters that Putin and Trump spoke for 50 minutes and discussed the war between Israel and Iran. Putin and Trump agreed to back a return to negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program and said they were pleased with their “positive personal relationship,” Ushakov told reporters. (RFE/RL, 06.16.25, Axios, 06.14.25, Financial Times, 06.15.25)[3]

Sunday, June 15, 2025

• Trump said that it’s possible the U.S. could become involved in the Israel-Iran conflict. “It’s possible we could get involved,” Trump said in an interview with ABC News June 15. (Bloomberg, 06.15.25)
• Russia said June 15 it had evacuated several of its citizens from Iran and halted activity at its Tehran consulate after Israeli attacks on the country sparked retaliatory missile fire toward Israel. (MT/AFP, 06.15.25)

Monday, June 16, 2025

• The U.S. blocked a proposed Group of Seven statement urging Israel and Iran to de-escalate their conflict. (Bloomberg, 06.16.25)
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on June 16 reiterated Moscow's offer to mediate between Israel and Iran, but so far there have been no immediate takers. (Washington Post, 06.17.25)
• Within 48 hours of starting its war on Iran, Israel said it gained air superiority over the western part of the country, including Tehran. Israeli warplanes began dropping bombs from within Iranian skies instead of relying on expensive long-range missiles. That is a feat that the giant Russian air force has been unable to achieve in Ukraine in 3½ years of war. (Wall Street Journal, 06.16.25)
• Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have condemned Israel’s strikes on Iran, which the Russian and Turkish presidents said “carried the risks of grave long-term consequences for the whole region.” Putin and Erdoğan agreed to back an immediate ceasefire and “intense efforts” supporting diplomatic talks on “contentious issues” such as the future of Iran’s nuclear program. (Financial Times, 06.16.25)
• Russia’s Embassy in Tel Aviv urged its citizens to leave the country amid intensifying hostilities between Israel and Iran. (MT/AFP, 06.16.25)

Tuesday, June 17, 2025

• In a statement on June 17, Russia’s Foreign Ministry urged Israeli leaders to halt airstrikes on nuclear installations and other sites in Iran. (Meduza, 06.18.25)
• The surprise factor of having to fend off drones attacking from within combines a classic military strategy with modern technology. That was the case two weeks ago, when more than 40 Russian war planes were hit by a swarm of 117 drones that Ukraine had secretly planted near military bases in Russia months earlier. It was also the case in Iran. (New York Times, 06.17.25)
• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered officials to increase the production of medium and long-range missiles in light of the Israel-Iran conflict. (Bloomberg, 06.17.25)

Wednesday, June 18, 2025

• Trump appeared June 18 to rebuff Putin's offer to mediate in the Israel-Iran conflict, saying the Russian president should end his own war in Ukraine first. "He actually offered to help mediate, I said 'Do me a favor, mediate your own. Let's mediate Russia first, okay?'" Trump told reporters at the White House. "I said 'Vladimir, let's mediate Russia first, you can worry about this later.'" (MT/AFP, 06.18.25)
• The leaders of Russia and the United Arab Emirates on June 18 warned of "extremely negative consequences" from the ongoing air war between Israel and Iran. In a phone call with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Putin "confirmed Russia's readiness to provide mediation assistance to promote dialogue between the parties to the conflict," the Kremlin said in a statement. (MT/AFP, 06.18.25)

Thursday, June 19, 2025

• Trump will make a decision "within two weeks" on whether to join Israel's war against Iran to eliminate its nuclear program, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on June 19. (Axios, 06.19.25)[4]
• Putin’s next foreign visit will be to the Belarusian capital of Minsk, where he will take part in a Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) summit om June 27. According to the Belarusian foreign minister, the Iranian president will arrive in Minsk as part of the meeting of the Supreme Economic Council of the Eurasian Economic Union on June 26-27. (Belsat, 06.11.25, TASS, 06.19.25)
• In Iran “we can see that society is consolidating around the national political leadership despite the complex internal political processes in Iran... nothing has happened to Iran’s underground facilities. ... Overall, we could work with Iran, taking into account its plans to continue using and further developing non-military nuclear technologies, in particular in agriculture, medicine and so on, which are not related to nuclear energy, but we could also work with it in the sphere of nuclear energy itself. ... In general, Iran’s interests in the field of non-military nuclear energy can be ensured and Israel’s security concerns can be lifted at the same time,” Putin told a meeting with heads of international news agencies. (Kremlin.ru, 06.19.25)
• [When asked: “If tomorrow Israel—with or without U.S. assistance—were to assassinate Khamenei, what would be your reaction, Russia’s response, and your immediate actions?”] “I do not wish to even discuss this,” Putin told a meeting with heads of international news agencies. (Kremlin.ru, 06.19.25)
• “You know, we once proposed to our Iranian partners cooperation in air defense systems. At the time, our partners showed limited interest, and the matter concluded there. Regarding the Strategic Partnership Treaty you mentioned, it contains no clauses pertaining to defense cooperation. ... [O]ur Iranian friends have not made such requests of us. Therefore, there is effectively nothing to discuss,” Putin told a meeting with heads of international news agencies. (Kremlin.ru, 06.19.25)
• Russia's Foreign Ministry on June 19 warned the United States against launching military action against Iran. "We would like to particularly warn Washington against military intervention in this situation," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said June 19. Zakharova noted that any such move by the U.S. "would be an extremely dangerous step with truly unpredictable negative consequences." (MT/AFP, 06.19.25)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

Sunday, June 15, 2025

• Russia returned another 1,200 bodies it says belong to Ukrainians killed in the war, Ukrainian authorities said, while fighting continued and Russia claimed it seized control of a village in the Donetsk region. (RFE/RL, 06.15.25)
• Ukrainian medics have moved field hospitals underground after repeated Russian strikes on medical facilities. (Washington Post, 06.15.25)

Monday, June 16, 2025

• Ukraine and Russia conducted an exchange that included the bodies of soldiers killed in action (KIA) on June 16 in accordance with agreements reached during talks in Istanbul on June 2. Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of POWs reported on June 16 that Russia returned 1,245 bodies to Ukraine. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated on June 16 that Ukraine repatriated 6,000 bodies in the last week. Umerov stated that this is the final stage of the Istanbul framework for KIA repatriations. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russia returned 1,248 bodies and received 51 bodies from Ukraine on June 16. (ISW, 06.16.25)

Wednesday, June 18, 2025

• So far this month, Russia has lobbed at least 3,340 long-range drones and 135 missiles over the border, Ukrainian authorities said. Civilian casualties for the first five months of 2025 are up 50% compared with last year, the U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission said. (Washington Post, 06.18.25)

Friday, June 20, 2025

• Russia and Ukraine exchanged captured soldiers on June 20, authorities said, marking the latest prisoner swap following peace talks in Istanbul earlier this month. Neither side disclosed how many troops were released in the June 20 exchange. (MT/AFP, 06.20.25)
• Cross-border Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes are preventing displaced civilians from returning to parts of Russia’s Kursk region, Acting Gov. Alexander Khinshtein said June 18. More than 570 people remain missing, according to Khinshtein. (MT/AFP, 06.19.25)

• As Russia continues pressing its attacks into Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region, a special police unit known as the White Angels faces an increasingly daunting mission: Rescuing the last civilian holdouts from villages under heavy fire and getting them to safer regions. (RFE/RL, 06.19.25)

  For military strikes on civilian targets see the next section.

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• In the past week, Russian forces gained 64 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about 3 Manhattan islands), a slight increase in pace over the previous week’s gain of 62 square miles. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s armed forces lost a sliver of their foothold across Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions, where they are down to 5 square miles total from last week’s 6 square miles, according to the June 17, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. (RM, 06.17.25)
• Russia’s summer offensive in eastern Ukraine, launched in May, is showing battlefield gains. In May, Russian forces seized roughly 173 square miles, more than double April’s gains, according to DeepState. Most gains came south of Kostyantynivka, in the Donetsk region, and near the Russian border in the northern Sumy region. (New York Times, 06.14.25)

Saturday, June 14, 2025

• The fighting is intensifying in particular in the northern Sumy region, which was the launch point for Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region last year. Russian troops have advanced to about 12 miles from Sumy, at their closest point, Ihor Shapoval, head of the Red Cross for the Sumy region, told The Washington Post. (Washington Post, 06.14.25)
• The Ukrainian military said it hit Russian military-industrial facilities used to produce explosives, as Russia pounded Ukraine's southern Zaporizhzhia region in a drone attack that destroyed a humanitarian warehouse. (RFE/RL, 06.14.25)
• At least three people were wounded in the Russian attacks on June 14, attacks that included 14 Iranian-made Shahed drones, said Ivan Fedorov, the Ukrainian governor of Zaporizhzhia region. (RFE/RL, 06.14.25)

Sunday, June 15, 2025

• Russia said its overnight missile and drone barrage struck the large Kremenchuk oil refinery in central Ukraine. (Bloomberg, 06.15.25)
• A building used by Boeing in Kyiv was badly damaged in a recent large-scale Russian air attack, in what appeared to be a deliberate strike on the U.S. aerospace company, according to six people familiar with the matter and photographs seen by the Financial Times. The building was among the targets hit on Sunday night in one of the most intense attacks of the war, according to two Boeing employees, three Ukrainian officials and the head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine (ACC). (Financial Times, 06.15.25)

Monday, June 16, 2025

• Russian forces launched a drone attack on Ukraine overnight on June 16, using 138 Shahed-type attack drones and various types of decoy drones, according to Ukraine’s Air Force Command. The main target of the assault was the Donetsk region. Ukrainian forces said they shot down 125 of the drones. (Meduza, 06.16.25)
• Russia’s consumption of its Soviet-era tank stores appears to be slowing, possibly due to Russia's increasing transition to using motorcycles and all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) on the battlefield. (ISW, 06.16.25)

Tuesday, June 17, 2025

• On the night of June 16 to 17, Russian forces conducted the third largest combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 440 Shahed and decoy drones from the directions of Kursk, Oryol, and Bryansk cities; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai. (ISW, 06.17.25)
• A total of 30 people were killed and 172 others injured after a mass Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv overnight on June 17. Russia pummeled Kyiv and its suburbs with 175 drones, 14 cruise missiles and two ballistic missiles. Across Ukraine, more than 440 drones and 32 missiles hit multiple cities. The death toll in the Ukrainian capital is the worst since July 2024. (Washington Post, 06.17.25, Financial Times, 06.17.25, New York Times, 06.17.25, MT/AFP, 06.18.25, Kyiv Independent, 06.20.25)
  • Emergency services in Kyiv said June 18 that the death toll from a Russian air attack the previous day had risen to 21, with more than 130 others wounded. (MT/AFP, 06.18.25)
  • It was the deadliest attack on the Ukrainian capital in almost a year, and came as Moscow has intensified air assaults on the city. Russia pummeled Kyiv with drones and missiles overnight on July 17, killing at least 14 people and wounding more than 100, according to the local authorities, in the deadliest attack on the Ukrainian capital in almost a year. The United Nations said in a statement that the overnight attack was the fourth time this month that Russia had launched more than 400 drones and missiles in a single night. By comparison, Moscow launched about 550 aerial weapons during the entire month of June 2024. (New York Times, 06.17.25)
  • Moscow sent as many long-range attack drones against its neighbor in the first two weeks of June as it did during whole months last year, straining the country's air defenses and undermining Trump's attempts to secure a peace deal. A statistical analysis by the Center for Information Resilience, a U.K.-based open-source investigations organization, found that Russia, after cranking up production, has launched nearly 20,500 attack and decoy drones in 2025 so far. (Wall Street Journal, 06.17.25)
  • A Ukrainian security official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the June 17 attack on Kyiv came after the U.S. transferred a stockpile of 10,000 anti-drone munitions designated for Ukraine to the Middle East instead. (Washington Post, 06.18.25)
• A woman living near the border with Ukraine in southwestern Russia’s Kursk region died at the hospital a day after she was injured in a Ukrainian drone attack, regional officials said June 17. (MT/AFP, 06.17.25)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry said early June 17 that it destroyed more than 200 Ukrainian drones across the country overnight. (MT/AFP, 06.17.25)
• An early turning point  in Russia’s drone production came in November 2022, when Russia signed an agreement with Iran to purchase and produce its Shahed attack drones locally. Russia likely realized that relying on production in Iran would create a bottleneck, so it decided to buy the technology from Tehran and make the weapons itself, said Omar Al-Ghusbi, a senior analyst with C4ADS, a nonprofit organization researching illicit networks worldwide. (Wall Street Journal, 06.17.25)

Wednesday, June 18, 2025

• Russia’s top military commander visited troops fighting near the strategic eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk as they continue their slow advance toward the stronghold, Russia’s Defense Ministry said June 18. A video released by the Russian Defense Ministry on June 18 showed Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov arriving by helicopter at an unspecified location near the front line with Pokrovsk. (MT/AFP, 06.18.25)
• Mykhailo Hrytsai, the Russian-installed deputy mayor of Berdyansk, a city in the Russian-occupied part of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, has been killed, Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) reported June 18. (Meduza, 06.18.25)

Thursday, June 19, 2025

• On June 19, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces had captured Shevchenko Pershe. (RM, 06.20.25)
• “You see, the staffing level for the main forces within the Ukrainian Armed Forces is at 47%, while assault units face an even greater shortage of troops. What can they do? What’s next? It is not a matter of whether Western countries supply weapons or not. While this is an important factor, if your troops are understaffed and have less than 50% of service personnel they need, it means that these units are simply ineffective and unfit for military action. ... What lies ahead for them? This is why we have been saying that we are willing to sit down and start talking—we agree to do this,” Putin told a meeting with heads of international news agencies. (Kremlin.ru, 06.19.25)
• Russia’s Defense Ministry said early June 19 that its air defense systems destroyed 85 Ukrainian drones overnight and into the morning. Nearly half of the drones targeted the Bryansk and Kursk regions near the Ukrainian border. Local authorities reported minor damage but no injuries or deaths. Airports in the cities of Volgograd, Saratov, and Kaluga temporarily suspended flights during the attacks. (MT/AFP, 06.19.25)
• The West has failed to convince Putin to reevaluate his theory of victory in Ukraine in the past year. Putin’s public statements indicate that he continues to assess that Russian forces will be able to win a war of attrition by sustaining gradual advances along the frontline indefinitely. Putin articulated a theory of victory during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in June 2024 that assumes that Russian forces will be able to continue gradual creeping advances indefinitely, prevent Ukraine from conducting successful operationally significant counteroffensive operations, and win a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces. (ISW, 06.19.25)

Friday, June 20, 2025

• Putin told a June 20 plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum: "They [the Ukrainian Armed Forces] got into our Kursk region, committed crimes. We drove them out. And now we are forced to create a security zone along the border," Putin said. "We do not have the task of taking Sumy. But in principle, I do not rule it out." (Meduza, 06.20.25) For more of Putin’s remarks at SPIEF, also see section “Domestic politics, economy and energy.”
• Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT project analyzed the actions of the Russians on the front in June, noting that they are most active in June in the Pokrovsky section: 32% of all attacks, high intensity also remains in the Kursk–16.4%, Novopavlovsky–15%, Limansky–10.3% and Toretsky sections–9.5%. (Ukrainska Pravda, 06.20.25)
• On the night of June 19-20, the cities of Odesa and Kharkiv were hit by massive Russian drone attacks overnight as Moscow continues its daily air attacks against Ukraine. In total, Russian forces sent a barrage of 86 drones and decoys overnight, 16 of which managed to evade air defenses, Ukraine’s Air Force Command said on Telegram on June 20. The Russian drone attack on Odesa has killed one person and injured at least 13 others—including three rescue workers. (RFE/RL, 06.20.25, Bloomberg, 06.20.25)
• On June 20, Russian air defenses shot down two Ukrainian drones headed for Moscow, the city’s mayor, Sergey Sobyanin, said. (Meduza, 06.20.25)
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has appointed Hennadii Shapovalov as commander of the country’s Ground Forces, according to a decree published June 19 on the president’s website. Shapovalov, who has experience working with Ukraine’s Western allies, was appointed almost three weeks after his predecessor Mykhailo Drapatiy was transferred to another post and several other top officers were reassigned. (Financial Times, 06.20.25, Meduza, 06.20.25)
• Head of the Intelligence Center of the Estonian Defense Forces, Col. Ants Kiviselga said: "We know that Israel had the opportunity to strike a drone manufacturing plant in Isfahan, Iran, and the Ukrainians have repeatedly attacked a plant in Yelabuga (Tatarstan), where drones are also manufactured for the Russian army." Therefore, according to him, it is quite possible that in the near future "we will see a certain decrease in the intensity of drone use." (Ukrainska Pravda, 06.20.25)
• Zelenskyy fears that at current rates of drone production Russia may soon be able to launch raids that involve twice the number of machines. To pick through the debris and peer inside those weapons is to come face to face with a grim reality. China is the most important—perhaps decisive—enabler of Russia’s war machine. Consider the Shahed. The newest ones are filled with Chinese parts. Those used this year have antennae made in China, according to HUR, Ukraine’s military-intelligence agency. One example contained only two American components, out of 15.  (The Economist, 06.20.25)
• NATO SG Mark Rutte wrote in Foreign Affairs: “Ukrainian drones that cost $400 have taken out $2 million Russian tanks.” (Foreign Affairs, 06.20.25)

Military aid to Ukraine:

• NATO allies are debating how to count the aid to Ukraine. The current plan is to consider it core military spending. But some of the countries nearest to Russia’s borders do not want to dilute their domestic defense and want aid to Ukraine categorized as “related investments.” (New York Times, 06.19.25)
• Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said his country is prepared to extend its program to deliver heavy ammunition to Ukraine into next year. (Bloomberg, 06.17.25)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• Trump said he was not ready to impose new sanctions on Russia over the war in Ukraine despite mounting pressure from G-7 allies and members of Congress. Speaking alongside U.K. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer at the G-7 summit in Canada on June 16, Trump said he was skeptical of new sanctions on Russia. Trump opened his remarks at the Group of 7 gathering of industrialized nations by criticizing the decision to expel Russia from the bloc after Moscow’s 2014 “annexation” of Crimea. The U.S. president also said it was “not a bad idea” to have China as part of the G7. (Financial Times, 06.16.25, New York Times, 06.17.25)
• Following the G-7 summit in Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a new round of sanctions targeting Russian individuals and entities, as well as more than 200 vessels from the so-called “shadow fleet” that have been transporting Russian oil above the international price cap. (Meduza, 06.18.25)
• The European Union and the U.K. announced sanctions packages against Russia on June 16 and 17. The U.K. sanctioned additional parts of Russia’s financial, military-industrial and energy sectors, including Russia’s shadow fleet and its operating companies. The U.K. also sanctioned two U.K. residents accused of helping to supply Russia with over $120 million worth of electronics. The EU Council renewed its sanctions package that targets the import of products from occupied Crimea into the EU and the export of goods and technology to transport, telecommunications, energy, oil, gas, and mineral companies in Crimea. (ISW, 06.17.25)
• The European Union is looking to extract billions of extra euros from frozen Russian assets by moving them into riskier investments—via a plan that would increase aid to Ukraine while avoiding accusations of stealing Moscow's money. The EU executive is considering transferring almost €200 billion of frozen Russian state assets held in Belgium into a new, riskier investment fund that would pay out higher interest, four officials with knowledge of proceedings told POLITICO. (Politico 06.19.25)
• [In a June 6, 2025 essay for The Free Press, historian Niall Ferguson claimed that] “Up until [Trump’s inauguration] the much-vaunted sanctions imposed on Russia by the West since February 2022 have been a case study in the limits of economic coercion. Russia has made more from selling energy to Europe in the last three years than Ukraine has received in aid from the EU.” (The Free Press, 06.02.25) RM assesses that this claim is factually correct but misses the overall trend. Russia has earned $241.76 billion from energy sales to the EU from Feb. 22, 2024 to June 17, 2025, and the EU has contributed at most $161.9 billion from Feb. 22, 2024–May 5, 2025. But Russian revenues from EU energy imports have continued to decline: the EU has dropped from Russia’s second biggest energy importer at $241.76 billion, to Russia’s fourth biggest importer since Jan. 1, 2023 at $71.43 billion, while EU aid to Ukraine has continued to rise over the same period.

For sanctions on the energy sector, please see section “Energy exports from CIS” below.

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

Tuesday, June 17, 2025

• Trump left the G-7 summit in Canada early, canceled his meeting with Zelenskyy, lamented Russia’s absence from the leaders’ get-together and rejected the idea of issuing a joint statement in support of Ukraine. A single, brief reference to Ukraine in a summary of the talks’ conclusions, released by the host, Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada, backed Trump’s peacemaking efforts and did not directly criticize Russia, though it said the leaders would explore ways to bring more pressure to bear on Moscow. (New York Times, 06.18.25)
• The Trump administration shelved in recent weeks an inter-agency working group it had set up to formulate strategies for pressuring Russia into speeding up peace talks with Ukraine, according to three U.S. officials. The effort, which was established earlier in the spring, lost steam in May as it became increasingly clear to participants that U.S. President Donald Trump was not interested in adopting a more confrontational stance toward Moscow, said the officials. (Reuters, 06.17.25)

Wednesday, June 18, 2025

• A day after Trump signaled that Ukraine wasn't a top priority, and following Russia's deadliest attack on Kyiv in weeks, Zelenskyy left a summit of the Group of Seven industrial nations without the support he had hoped to rally. The U.K. and Canada pledged new sanctions against Russia on June 17, and leaders expressed support for Ukraine in social-media posts and public statements. But a short summary of leaders' discussions on Ukraine, which expressed support for Trump's efforts to end the conflict, lacked the forceful condemnations of Russia's invasion that previous G-7 communiques have contained. (Wall Street Journal, 06.17.25)
• Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, is planning to travel to Belarus in the next few days for talks with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, sources told Reuters. According to two people familiar with the matter, Kellogg sees the trip as a potential opportunity to revive stalled peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. (Meduza, 06.18.25)

Thursday, June 19, 2025

• Days after a Russian attack on Kyiv destroyed apartment blocks and killed 28 people, Putin denied in remarks published June 19 that Moscow was targeting civilians and said he was open to meeting with Zelenskyy, even while still questioning his legitimacy. Putin spoke to international news agencies. Putin said negotiations between working groups could resume next week but said he would meet with Zelenskyy only after all details of a peace deal were hammered out, and even then, he suggested that the democratically elected Ukrainian leader would not have a legal right to sign the agreement. (Washington Post, 06.19.25)
• “We must find a solution that will not only end the current conflict but also create the conditions necessary to prevent such situations from recurring in the long-term historical perspective. ... [W]e are ready to hold talks. By the way, I said I was ready to sit down and talk with anyone, including Zelenskyy. ... What is the legal aspect? According to Ukraine’s constitution, the president is elected for a five-year term. There is no mechanism for extending presidential powers, not even under martial law,” Putin told a meeting with heads of international news agencies. (Kremlin.ru, 06.19.25)
• “[Trump] has ... repeatedly stated that ‘if I were [resident, this war would have never happened.’ I believe he is correct here as well,” Putin told a meeting with heads of international news agencies. (Kremlin.ru, 06.19.25)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

Monday, June 16, 2025

• Although the number of locations of armed conflict fell slightly, from 51 states in 2023 to 49 in 2024, the estimated overall number of fatalities rose from 188,000 in 2023 to 239,000 in 2024, According to SIPRI’s Yearbook 2025. (SIPRI, June 2025)
• Military spending in the world rose for the 10th successive year and exceeded $2.7 trillion in 2024. The United States remained by far the largest military spender in the world. Its expenditure of $997 billion in 2024 was 3.2 times more than the next biggest spender, China. In 2024 military spending rose in all countries in Europe other than Malta as total European spending increased by 17%. Spending went up in Russia (+38%) and Ukraine (+2.9%) during the year, while 17 of the 30 European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) reached or surpassed the alliance’s 2.0% of GDP spending guideline, According to SIPRI’s Yearbook 2025. (SIPRI, June 2025)
• Russia has accused the U.K. of working with Ukraine in a plan to stage provocations involving a U.S. ship in the Baltic Sea. In a statement on Monday, Russia's foreign intelligence service (SVR) said it knew of a plot to escalate the conflict in Ukraine with an operation in what is termed a "NATO Lake" due to its location surrounded by alliance members. The statement provided no evidence for its claims. Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation dismissed the claims. (Newsweek, Rbc.ua 06.16.25)

Tuesday, June 17, 2025

• The G-7 summit ended without a joint statement on Ukraine. In a summary of the summit published Tuesday, its chair, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, wrote that the G-7 leaders backed Trump's efforts "to achieve a just and lasting peace in Ukraine"; agreed Russia must commit to an unconditional ceasefire, like Ukraine has; and said they were exploring options to pressure Russia, including sanctions. In 2024, the joint communiqué at the G-7 called on Russia to "end its illegal war of aggression and pay for the damage it caused to Ukraine." Such language was absent from the summary published Tuesday (Washington Post, 06.18.25)
• “The G-7 used to be the G-8,” U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters in Kananaskis, Alberta, where Canada is currently hosting a meeting of G-7 leaders. “Barack Obama and a person named Trudeau didn’t want to have Russia in. And I would say that was a mistake because you wouldn’t have a war right now,” Trump said, seemingly unaware of the fact that Stephen Harper was the prime minister of Canada when Russia was removed from the G-8 in March 2014. Trump repeatedly brought Russia up at this week’s G-7 summit, saying that President Vladimir Putin was “no longer at the table, so it makes life more complicated.” “Putin speaks to me. He doesn’t speak to anybody else. He doesn’t want to talk because he was very insulted when he got thrown out of the G-8, as I would be, as you would be, as anybody would be,” Trump said. So, why was Russia excluded from the then-G-8? (MT/AFP, 06.17.25)
• NATO is limiting public disclosures of its activities and aid to Ukraine amid concerns that Russia will exploit this information, officials from three NATO countries told The Moscow Times on condition of anonymity. (MT, 06.17.25)

Thursday, June 19, 2025

• As leaders prepare to meet for the annual forum starting on Tuesday, U.S. allies have watered down their public support for Ukrainian membership and drafted a policy communiqué as short as five paragraphs to keep the American leader on board. The meeting itself, in The Hague, will open and close in under two days—a timeline designed to keep it devoid of drama. “No one wants to say no to Trump,” said Mujtaba Rahman, who analyzes Europe for the Eurasia Group. Asked on Wednesday whether the Iran-Israel war would prompt him to skip the meeting, Mr. Trump told reporters that he still planned to attend. (New York Times, 06.19.25)
• Spain will oppose NATO plans to raise the target for members’ defense spending to 5% of GDP, potentially setting up a clash with U.S. President Donald Trump, who wants Europe to spend more on its own security. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez told North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General Mark Rutte in a letter seen by Bloomberg that he would oppose the new spending proposal. (Bloomberg, 06.19.25)
• Finland’s parliament approved the Nordic country’s withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention, which bans anti-personnel landmines. (Bloomberg, 06.19.25)
• NATO SG Mark Rutte wrote in Foreign Affairs: “Russia has brought war back to Europe and has teamed up with China, North Korea and Iran to reshape the global order. ... Even when the war in Ukraine eventually ends, the danger that Moscow poses will not disappear. Russia is reconstituting its forces with Chinese technology and producing weapons faster than we thought it could. This year alone, Russia is expected to roll out 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander missiles. Russia could be ready to challenge NATO militarily within five years.” (Foreign Affairs, 06.20.25)
• It is still unclear whether Zelenskyy will get another chance to meet with Trump at the NATO summit next week. Ukraine’s plight is expected to feature less prominently at the meeting of the defense alliance compared to recent years, as leaders of the alliance seek to avoid a blow up with Trump. (Politico, 06.20.25)
• “We do not view NATO’s rearmament as a threat to the Russian Federation. Our security is fully self-reliant, and we are continuously enhancing both our Armed Forces and our overall defense capabilities. Whatever actions NATO takes inevitably pose certain risks, but we will effectively counter any threats that may emerge; there is no doubt about that… This myth that Russia plans to attack Europe or NATO countries is exactly that kind of lie, an absurd fabrication that Western European societies are being told to believe. We understand how ridiculous this is… NATO countries currently spend $1.4 trillion on defense, more than the rest of the world combined, including Russia and the People’s Republic of China. The population of NATO countries exceeds 340 million. Russia’s population, by comparison, is around 145–150 million. Our military spending is not even remotely comparable. And we are the ones supposedly planning an attack on NATO? It is absurd.” Vladimir Putin told a meeting with heads of international news agencies. “There is no threat coming from Russia—none at all. It’s simply nonsense,” Putin said. (Kremlin.ru, 06.19.25)

Friday, June 20, 2025

• Putin told a June 20 plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum:"I have already said that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. In this sense, all of Ukraine is ours.” He also said: “There is an old rule. Wherever the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that is ours." (Meduza, 06.20.25) For more Putin’s remarks at SPIEF also see section “Domestic politics, economy and energy.”

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• President Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping, Putin’s aid Yuri Ushakov said on June 19, according to Kremlin.ru. “The two sides share identical approaches and firmly condemn Israel’s actions in violation of the UN Charter and other international norms. Moscow and Beijing have adopted a position of principle in their belief that the current situation and matters relating to the Iranian nuclear program cannot be resolved by force, while a solution can only be achieved by political and diplomatic means,” according to Ushakov. (RM, 06.19.25)
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit China in August for a regional summit, bilateral talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and events marking 80 years since the end of World War II in Asia, Ushakov said. Putin will attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin from Aug. 31 to Sept. 1. He is scheduled to hold talks with Xi on Sept. 2, followed by WWII commemorations in Beijing on Sept. 3. (MT/AFP, 06.19.25)
• China was quick to condemn Israel after its assault against Iran. Yet President Xi Jinping has shown no sign of rushing to provide weapons and other support that would help Tehran face its most critical military test in decades. (Bloomberg, 06.19.25)
• “I mentioned that some of my family members are learning Chinese, I was referring to my granddaughter, who has a nanny from Beijing. She speaks fluent Chinese with her. But back in the early 2000s, even before any significant and prominent events, my daughter decided she wanted to learn Chinese—simply out of her own interest… This course is not connected to Russia’s supposed turn towards Asia. No, this is a natural sphere of cooperation. The reason is the growth of our economies,” Vladimir Putin told a meeting with heads of international news agencies. (Kremlin.ru, 06.19.25)
• Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, groups linked to the Chinese government have repeatedly hacked Russian companies and government agencies in an apparent search for military secrets, according to cyberanalysts. ''China likely seeks to gather intelligence on Russia's activities, including on its military operation in Ukraine, defense developments and other geopolitical maneuvers,'' said Che Chang, a researcher with TeamT5. (New York Times, 06.20.25)
• China President Xi Jinping signed a treaty to elevate ties with Central Asian nations on Tuesday, as Beijing looks to further deepen cooperation on trade, energy and infrastructure with the resource-rich region. At a regional summit in the Kazakh capital of Astana on Tuesday, Xi, lauding a milestone, signed a treaty of "permanent good-neighborliness and friendly cooperation" with leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, China's official Xinhua news agency reported. (Reuters, 06.17.25)
•  In a message of greetings, Vladimir Putin wished President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping a happy birthday. The President of Russia extended his best wishes to his Chinese counterpart and friend. (Kremlin.ru, 06.15.25)
• Vice Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China Ding Xuexiang attended the Plenary session of St Petersburg International Economic Forum,” at which Putin spoke on 06.20.25)
• NATO SG Mark Rutte wrote in Foreign Affairs: “China has become decisive in enabling Russia’s war against Ukraine and supporting Russia’s defense industrial base.” (Foreign Affairs, 06.20.25)

Missile defense:

• The Russian Cabinet of Ministers announced on June 13 that Russian developers tested laser anti-drone systems, which will reportedly make up Russia's universal air defense system. (ISW, 06.18.25)

Nuclear arms:

• Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12,241 nuclear warheads in January 2025 in the world, about 9,614 were in military stockpiles for potential use. Nearly all of these warheads belonged to Russia or the USA, but China may now keep some warheads on missiles during peacetime, According to SIPRI’s Yearbook 2025 (SIPRI, June 2025).
• Russia continues to set conditions to pose a long-term strategic threat to the United States and its Western allies even after the end to Russia's war in Ukraine. Swedish news outlet SVT reported on June 16 that Planet Labs satellite imagery collected in May 2025 shows that Russia is developing and upgrading at least five nuclear facilities in western Russia and Belarus. (ISW, 06.16.25)

Counterterrorism:

• No significant developments.

Conflict in Syria:

• No significant developments.

Cyber security/AI: 

• China and Russia are posing similar cyber threats to Europe, according to the Czech president whose government was recently targeted by a hacker group linked to Beijing’s security services. President Petr Pavel told the Financial Times that he considered the two countries to be on a par when it comes to state-sponsored hacking and espionage. (Financial Times, 06.20.25)
• Mobile internet outages have become increasingly routine across dozens of Russia’s regions in recent weeks as authorities respond to Ukrainian drone attacks with temporary shutdowns. (MT/AFP, 06.19.25)

Energy exports from CIS:

• Russia is barely benefiting from the recent surge in oil prices because of its strengthening currency, keeping the Kremlin’s revenue under pressure. As hostilities between Iran and Israel lifted global oil prices, Russia’s Urals crude rose to more than $60 a barrel on June 13, according to data from Argus Media Ltd. That meant it had recovered all but 10% of its losses since the start of the year. (Bloomberg, 06.19.25)
• The European Commission on Tuesday set out the legislation needed to end the bloc’s reliance on pipeline and liquefied natural gas supplies from Moscow, starting by prohibiting new deals from next year. Supplies under existing contracts shorter than one year will be stopped from June 17, 2026 at the latest. A ban on shipments under existing longer-term deals would take effect by the end of 2027. (Bloomberg, 06.17.25)
• TotalEnergies SE sees abundant alternatives to Russian gas as the European Union proposes a ban on all deliveries from the country by the end of 2027. “The good news is that the LNG market will be well supplied from 2027, 2028 and 2029,” the company’s Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne said at a conference in Tokyo on Wednesday. (Bloomberg, 06.18.25)
• The most immediate boon for Russia since the start of the Israel-Iran conflict is the surge in the price of Russian Urals-blend oil, which, according to Reuters, is now back up to levels last seen in April, above the $60 price cap set for Russian oil by the Group of Seven countries as part of efforts to reduce Moscow's ability to fund its war in Ukraine. Falling oil prices had put an increasing strain on the Russian budget, causing oil and gas revenue to plunge by a third, to $6.55 billion in May, according to Russian Finance Ministry data. (Washington Post, 06.17.25)
• Australia has for the first time imposed sanctions on Russia's so-called "shadow fleet" of oil tankers, the government said Wednesday. The new restrictions target 60 vessels, which have also been targeted by sanctions from the United Kingdom, Canada and EU. (MT/AFP, 06.18.25)
• Britain on Tuesday imposed new sanctions targeting Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” blacklisting 20 additional vessels, as well as 10 individuals and entities linked to the country’s energy and shipping sectors. (MT/AFP, 06.17.25)
• Ukraine’s largest private oil and gas company is meeting with bond investors in London next week as it faces more than $70 million in debt payments this year and the threat of supply disruptions from Russian attacks on its facilities near the front line. (Bloomberg, 06.20.25)

Climate change:

• No significant developments.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• “Look, our exports to the United States have been decimated, and our imports from the United States have been reduced by over four times. What was a modest US $27 billion has now been diminished to several billion dollars. However, our trade with the United States increased last year. Our trade with many European countries is decreasing, but it has grown with the United States. Therefore, I hope that Mr. Trump is not only a politician to whom the American people have entrusted the future of their country but also a businessman. I regard this as a significant advantage. He thinks several steps ahead, and since he has increased his own wealth, it means that he can do this well. This means that he considers the implications of different moves towards Russia, what this would cost American taxpayers and the U.S. economy, and whether it would be beneficial or detrimental,” Vladimir Putin told a meeting with heads of international news agencies. (Kremlin.ru, 06.19.25)

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• Responding to Donald Trump’s report today, June 18, that he spoke “yesterday” to Vladimir Putin, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists that the U.S. president was “speaking figuratively.” (Meduza, 06.18.25)
• Russia said the U.S. canceled the next round of planned consultations aimed at removing “irritants” from their bilateral relations and restoring the work of diplomatic missions in each other’s countries. Moscow “hopes that the pause they have taken will not be too long,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Monday in a post on Telegram that didn’t elaborate on reasons for the cancellation. The U.S. State Department didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. (Bloomberg, 06.16.25)
  • Moscow has been hoping to restore ties with the United States while continuing to wage war in Ukraine. On Friday, it acknowledged that Washington has a different view. “American diplomats believe that we need to directly tie the process of removing the irritants in bilateral relations with the settlement in Ukraine,” Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, told reporters on Friday at an annual economic conference in St. Petersburg, Russia. (New York Times, 06.20.25)
• At the G-7 summit on June 16 Donald Trump said: “Putin speaks to me; he doesn’t speak to anybody else.” (New York Times, 06.17.25)

II. Russia’s domestic policies 

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• Vladimir Putin told a June 20 plenary session of St Petersburg International Economic Forum that there should be five main directions of structural changes in the Russian economy: "a change in the nature of employment and consumption structure; a new quality of the investment climate; Russia’s economy must become more technologically advanced; a new quality of foreign trade: both exports and imports and fundamental changes… in the field of defense and security… the fifth direction of structural transformation of the economy.” (Kremlin.ru, 06.20.25)
  • Putin declared that stagnation and recession in the economy would not be allowed after experts and high-ranking officials warned of a slowdown. “Some specialists and experts point to the risks of stagnation and even recession. This, of course, should not be allowed in any case,” he said. (Washington Post, 06.20.25)
  • “In 2023, Russia’s non-oil-and-gas GDP increased by 7.2 %, followed by an additional 4.9 %, or almost five %, in 2024… commodities no longer play a defining role in Russia’s economic growth patterns.” (Kremlin.ru, 06.20.25)
  • “Russia is the world’s fourth largest and Europe’s number one economy in terms of GDP” (Kremlin.ru, 06.20.25) Putin failed to specify that Russia is No. 4 if GDP is measured in terms of purchasing power parity.
  • “Annual inflation… stood at 9.6%.” (Kremlin.ru, 06.20.25)
  • “In the first four months of this year, Russia’s GDP increased by 1.5 % year-on-year, including 1.9% growth in April alone. At the same time, some experts point to risks of stagnation or even recession.” (Kremlin.ru, 06.20.25)
  •  “Over the past four years, the number of employed people in Russia has grown by 2.4 million.” (Kremlin.ru, 06.20.25)
  • “We have achieved the lowest level of poverty in the history of the Russian Federation. By the end of last year, it stood at 7.2%... In 2000, the poverty rate in Russia was 29 %, with 42.3 million people living in—let’s be honest—a humiliating situation; by the end of 2024, that figure is no longer 29%, but 7.2%, and no longer 42.3 million people—it's 10.5 million.” (Kremlin.ru, 06.20.25)
• The annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Russia’s flagship business and investment event, opened Wednesday with a continued focus on promoting a “multipolar” world amid Moscow’s isolation from the West. (MT/AFP, 06.18.25)
  • President Vladimir Putin’s top economic officials openly argued over the state of Russia’s economy during a session at a flagship forum. “Based on current business sentiment and leading indicators, we are on the verge of slipping into a recession,” Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said on Thursday during a heated exchange with other officials at Russia’s St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. “The numbers suggest a cooling, but all data is essentially a rear-view mirror,” he said. His comments came in sharp contrast to Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina, who downplayed recession fears and suggested the economy was undergoing a necessary adjustment after a period in which it was overheating. (Bloomberg, 06.19.25)
  • Speaking at the forum, Sberbank CEO Herman Gref called the current economic climate a “perfect storm,” citing the high key interest rate’s impact on business profitability and Russia’s lagging productivity compared to developed countries. “We really are in a storm — a perfect one, as you said,” Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov responded. Gref predicted the Central Bank would cut the rate to 15% by the end of 2025. Russia’s economy expanded just 1.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025—its slowest pace in two years. (Meduza, 06.20.25, MT/AFP, 06.20.25)
  • “There is a danger of the economy overcooling and that we may not be able to come out of this slump, and further growth could be very restrained,” Sberbank First Deputy CEO Alexander Vedyakhin told Reuters on Wednesday. Vedyakhin projected Russia’s GDP to grow just 1–2% this year, less than the government's projection of 2.5%. (MT/AFP, 06.18.25)
  • Slumping Russian steel demand, due to a construction slowdown amid broader economic weakness, may force some of the country’s producers to halt output, according to Severstal PJSC’s chief Alexander Shevelev. Shevelev said the industry could be unable to sell up to 6 million metric tons of steel this year, nearly 10% of last year’s total output. (Bloomberg, 06.19.25, MT/AFP, 06.19.25)
• The Russian ruble has become the dominant currency in the country’s export payments for the first time since the West imposed sweeping sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine, according to new data released by the Central Bank. The ruble accounted for 52.3% of export transactions in April, while the share of currencies from what the Kremlin designates as “unfriendly” countries—including the United States and other Western allies—fell to a historic low of 14.1%. The ruble’s share in import payments has been above 50% since December 2024, reaching a record 56.2% in April. (MT/AFP, 06.17.25)
• Russia’s Finance Ministry is aggressively increasing its borrowing in a bid to cover growing fiscal gaps and hedge against an increasingly uncertain economic future as military spending surges and oil and gas revenues slump. Six months into 2025, the ministry has already borrowed more than 2.7 trillion rubles (approximately $35 billion), or 56% of its annual borrowing plan. (MT/AFP, 06.19.25)
• Foreign direct investment in Russia fell to just $3.3 billion in 2024, its lowest level since 2001, according to new data published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (MT/AFP, 06.19.25)
• Passenger vehicle sales in Russia could fall by up to 25% this year, the head of Russia’s leading auto manufacturer AvtoVAZ said Wednesday. Potential buyers are holding onto their savings or converting funds into U.S. dollars, betting on a ruble depreciation widely expected by economists. (MT/AFP, 06.18.25)
• A Moscow court has ruled to nationalize Domodedovo International Airport over allegations that the facility had come under foreign control, the Kommersant business newspaper reported Tuesday. (MT/AFP, 06.17.25)
• Vladimir Putin has failed to attract western companies to an economic conference in St. Petersburg this week. Even Russia’s allies sent lower-ranking officials and businessmen, with the exception of Indonesia, whose president is in attendance. (Financial Times, 06.19.25)
• Russian consumers are increasingly substituting basic staples for once-affordable vegetables amid surging food prices and shrinking household budgets. The most striking example is potatoes, a longtime dietary cornerstone in Russia, whose average retail price rose by 173% year-over-year by the end of May, the steepest annual increase in the past 23 years. (MT/AFP, 06.17.25)
• On June 17, the State Duma passed legislation in its final reading imposing limits on the use of non-Russian languages on public signage. (Meduza, 06.17.25)
• The Russian State Duma has passed a law in its third and final reading that will allow authorities to penalize “foreign agents” for misdemeanor offenses they allegedly committed outside of Russia. (Meduza, 06.17.25)
• Russia’s Supreme Court on Tuesday ordered the dissolution of the center-right Civic Initiative party, more than a year after it nominated the only anti-war candidate in the 2024 presidential election. (MT/AFP, 06.17.25)
• Law enforcement authorities arrested pro-war blogger Mikhail Polynkov in Moscow, Russian media reported on Wednesday. Polynkov, a close associate of jailed ex-separatist commander Igor Girkin, runs the Telegram channel “Soldier’s Truth” and has been described in media reports as a recruiter of foreign fighters for pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine. (MT/AFP, 06.18.25)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his commitment to raising a new elite comprised of loyal veterans via the Time of Heroes federal program, which appoints veterans into positions of federal, regional, and municipal power. Senior Kremlin officials reportedly stated that some Time of Heroes alumni and veterans are already making steep demands to be appointed to senior Kremlin positions. Putin may be introducing some barriers to temper veterans’ expectations and prevent veterans from making lofty demands. (ISW, 06.18.25)
• When asked by the Levada Center in April to name “the most outstanding individuals of all times and peoples,” respondents in Russia named Josef Stalin (42%), Vladimir Putin (31%) and Vladimir Lenin (28%). Of the Top 10, only three are not military-political leaders (poet Alexander Pushkin (No. 4), cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin (No. 6) chemist Dmitri Mendeleev (10th). Of the top 10 figures, as many as five were at the peak of their careers in Soviet times (Stalin, Lenin, Gagarin, Georgy Zhukov and Leonid Brezhnev), four lived in pre-Soviet Russia (poet Pushkin, chemist Mendeleev, Peter the Great, Catherine the Great). Some Russians may find Vladimir Putin not so great, but the fact is that in Levada’s poll, he is the only person who has reached the peak of his career in post-Soviet times. Thus, one could say that the nostalgia for Soviet rule remains strong in Russia more than 30 years after dissolution of the USSR. That said, the popularity of Lenin declined from 59% in the final year of USSR’s existence in 1991 to 28% in Levada’s latest poll on the subject in 2025. The same period, however, saw Stalin’s popularity increase from 24% to 42%, propelling the Soviet dictator to the top of the list. As for Putin, the first reference to Putin appeared in the 2008 poll on the subject. He was at the time named most outstanding by 32% before declining to 22% in 2012 (peak of anti-Putin protests occurred in the winter of 2012–2013) when Putin announced his intention to return to the Kremlin. It feel to 18% in 2020, then 15% in 2021, before rebounding to 31% in 2025. (RM, 06.17.25)

Defense and aerospace:

• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reportedly recruited almost 90,000 personnel during the first three months of 2025 by exceeding the federal recruitment budget for 2025. Russian officials denied the need to conduct another mobilization wave in response to the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) Main Military-Political Directorate Deputy Head and Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander, Major General Apti Alaudinov's call on the Kremlin to mobilize 500,000 to one million soldiers. (ISW, 06.18.25)
• Russia’s space agency plans to launch its first batch of satellite internet terminals later this year in a bid to rival Elon Musk’s Starlink network, Roscosmos chief Dmitry Bakanov said Thursday. (MT/AFP, 06.19.25)
•  See section Military aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts above.

Security, law-enforcement, justice and emergencies:

• A European Union diplomat was assaulted in the Russian Far Eastern city of Vladivostok in late May, Der Spiegel reported on Tuesday, citing informed sources. According to the outlet, the E.U. staffer was in Vladivostok on a work trip. (Meduza, 06.18.25)

   

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s external policies, including relations with “far abroad” countries:

• Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto pledged to strengthen relations with Russia at a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. The partnership between the two nations is developing “extremely actively,” he said in St. Petersburg at the start of their talks on Thursday. Putin highlighted “large and growing cooperation” in space, energy, agriculture and defense. (Bloomberg, 06.19.25)
• On the sidelines of the 28th St Petersburg International Economic Forum, President Vladimir Putin met with:
  • President of the Republic of Indonesia Prabowo Subianto, who is in Russia on an official visit; (Kremlin.ru, 06.19.25)
  • Deputy President of the Republic of South Africa Paul Mashatile; (Kremlin.ru, 06.19.25) and
  • Representative of the King of Bahrain for Humanitarian Work and Youth Affairs, Chairman of the Supreme Council for Youth and Sports, National Security Adviser, Commander of the Royal Guard of the Kingdom of Bahrain Nasser bin Hamad Al Khalifa. (Kremlin.ru, 06.20.25)
• Argentine intelligence has identified five Russian nationals suspected of espionage activities linked to “Russia’s geopolitical interests,” presidential spokesperson Manuel Adorni said. “The intelligence service identified a group of Russian residents in Argentina who were allegedly engaged in suspicious activity in service of Russia’s geopolitical objectives while maintaining close contact with Argentine citizens,” Adorni told reporters. (Meduza, 06.19.25)
• A drone flew over the grounds of Russia’s trade mission in Sweden and dropped a bag of paint near its main entrance on Monday night, according to the Russian embassy in Stockholm. (Meduza, 06.17.25)

Ukraine:

• More than a month after Ukraine signed a landmark agreement granting the United States a stake in its mineral reserves, Kyiv is striving to show the Trump administration that the deal can deliver swift, tangible results. On Monday, Ukraine approved the first steps to allowing private investors to mine a major state-owned lithium deposit, two government officials said. Such a project would be the first to be greenlit under the deal. (New York Times, 06.16.25)
• Amid the pitched political battles that have engulfed Washington over Ukraine, there is one rare point of bipartisan consensus: Everyone has had it with Andriy Yermak, chief of staff to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The second most powerful man in Ukraine, Yermak has been a particularly frustrating interlocutor for the Trump administration, according to 10 people familiar with his interactions. Many in Washington have found Yermak to be uninformed about U.S. politics, abrasive and overly demanding with U.S. officials. (Politico, 06.20.25)
• Bridget A. Brink, who stepped down as ambassador to Ukraine in April out of objections to President Trump's pro-Russian approach to the war, is now speaking out and running for U.S. Congress. (New York Times, 06.20.25)
• Ukraine’s lawmakers passed a law that allows Ukrainians to hold multiple citizenships as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy seeks to strengthen ties with the diaspora and fix a demographic crisis. (Bloomberg, 06.18.25)
• The Verkhovna Rada supported the appointment of Ruslan Kravchenko as Prosecutor General. During his speech in parliament, Ruslan Kravchenko said that the Prosecutor General's Office must regain public trust, and this can only be done through fair decisions. "Special attention will be paid to sensitive issues of ethics, integrity and preventing pressure on businesses and the media. I will also not allow illegal pressure on prosecutors: neither behind the scenes nor in public," Kravchenko assured. (Korrespondent.net, 06.17.25)
• Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Chernyshov's official trip abroad has been approved until the end of the week, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on June 20 amid media speculations connecting Chernyshov's absence to an ongoing corruption investigation. The deputy prime minister's unexpected work trip to Vienna, announced on June 16, came three days after law enforcement agencies unveiled a corruption scheme involving two officials from the now-dissolved Communities and Territories Development Ministry, which was headed by Chernyshov. (Kyiv Independent, 06.20.25)
• In the Ukrainian city of Berdichev, police detained the mayor Serhiy Orlyuk as part of an investigation into the fact of receiving a bribe by an official. (Ukrainska Pravda, 06.20.25)

Russia's other post-Soviet neighbors:

• Kazakhstan has selected Russia’s Rosatom to lead a consortium for the construction of its first nuclear power plant. The China National Nuclear Corp. is expected to lead a group to build a second atomic facility. (Bloomberg, 06.14.25)
• Latvian authorities arrested Aleksejs Rosļikovs, a former parliament member and newly elected Rīga City Council member, on Monday, according to the news agency Delfi. Lawmakers Igor Yudin and Svetlana Čulkova were the first to report Rosļikovs’s arrest. Čulkova said he was taken into custody on Monday morning. Latvian law enforcement agencies have not yet commented on the detention. Rosļikovs later said that authorities had searched his home and questioned him as a suspect in a criminal case over alleged incitement of ethnic hatred and cooperation with Russia. He added that he was released on his own recognizance. (Meduza, 06.16.25)

IV. Quotable and notable

• Andrei Kokoshin in his analysis of the 1943 Battle of Kursk: "In spring and summer of 1942, the Soviet Supreme Command Headquarters had unfounded hopes for complete defeat of the Germans and the liberation of the territory of the USSR already that year." (RIAC, June 2025)

V. Useful data

Name the most outstanding individuals of all time and peoples (Levada Center, poll conducted in April 2025, results released in June 2025.)

Footnotes

1. Interestingly, U.S. President Donald Trump’s Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg is planning to travel to Belarus in the coming days, too, according to Politico.
2. RM has gone through references to military and military-technical cooperation in the Russian-Iranian treaty and found none that would call for mutual military aid in the event of aggression. Neither does the treaty’s text refer to the signatories as allies or say they have allied relations. That said, the treaty does refer to bilateral “military-technical cooperation.” It also says, “In order to develop military cooperation through their relevant departments, the Agreeing Parties shall prepare and implement relevant agreements within the framework of the Working Group on Military Cooperation.”
3. Moscow in April ratified a strategic partnership agreement with Iran that includes provisions for both countries to counter shared threats, but crucially does not create any kind of military alliance between the two countries. “The signing of the treaty does not mean the establishment of a military alliance with Iran or mutual military assistance,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said in an address to the State Duma at the time. (MT/AFP, 06.16.25)
4. When Israel launched its war on Iran on June 13, it did so on the basis of intelligence that it claimed showed Iran had reached a “point of no return” in its quest for a nuclear weapon. We understand that the information presented by Israel includes a detailed account of a recent, more urgent, push by Iranian scientists toward “weaponization,” or the creation of an explosive nuclear device. (The Economist, 06.19.25)

The cutoff for reports summarized in this product was 10.00 am East Coast time on the day it was distributed.

*Here and elsewhere, the italicized text indicates comments by RM staff and associates. These comments do not constitute an RM editorial policy.

Slider photo by AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky.